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Draft Signings: Mariners, White Sox, Reds, Orioles

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Here is today’s roundup of top-39 (first round, supplemental round, Competitive Balance Round A) draft picks who have signed their first pro contracts.  For further reference, here is the full list of recommended slot prices, and you can click the links for full pre-draft rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • The Mariners have signed their picks from the first three rounds, according to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer (Twitter link).  This includes 21st overall pick Cole Young, who received a $3.3MM bonus that is slightly above the $3,292,900 slot price.  The high school shortstop was a consensus pick in the 12-20 range by evaluators, and is considered to have a high floor as an all-around talent and future big leaguer, though there is some question whether he has the skillset to be a regular starter.
  • The White Sox agreed to a deal with left-hander Noah Schultz, according to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline.  (The Sox officially announced Schultz’s signing later in the day.)  Schultz’s $2.8MM bonus is also a touch above the $2,789,400 assigned to the 26th overall pick.  A local product born in Napierville, Illinois, Schultz is already 6’9″ at age 18, and owns a plus slider and an unconventional low-slot delivery.  McDaniel was the highest of the pundits on Schultz’s potential, ranking the southpaw 34th in the draft class.
  • The Reds agreed to sign Sal Stewart for $2,097,500, Callis reports.  This is under the $2,373,000 slot price attached to the 32nd overall selection, which could reflect a slight reach on the Reds’ part — BA was the highest on Stewart with a 58th overall ranking, and Law had Stewart 59th.  That said, McDaniel thought Stewart could be something of a tough sign due to his commitment to Vanderbilt, but the high school third baseman will instead forego college for the minor leagues.
  • The Orioles announced the signing of Dylan Beavers, the 33rd overall selection.  Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Ruiz (Twitter link) reports that Beavers received a $2.2MM bonus, providing the O’s with some savings under the $2,315,100 slot price.  Pipeline ranked the Cal outfielder 22nd in its rankings, writing that “when Beavers is locked in, he’s the proverbial five-tool player,” though Beavers had had some issues staying consistent.

Dwight Smith Passes Away

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Former major league outfielder Dwight Smith has passed away, according to an announcement from the Braves. He was 58 years old.

“We are saddened by the passing earlier today of Dwight Smith, an integral member of our 1995 World Series Championship team,” the Braves said in a statement. “The 1989 NL Rookie of the Year runner up, Dwight enjoyed an eight-year major league career that included two postseason trips with the Cubs and Braves. Dwight was also a beloved alumni member, and his infectious smile will be missed around Truist Park. Our deepest condolences to his wife Cheryl, daughters Taylor and Shannyn, and son, Dwight, Jr.”

As the team mentioned, Smith broke into the majors with an excellent season. He hit .324/.382/.493 through 381 plate appearances with the Cubs in 1989, finishing runner-up to teammate Jerome Walton in that year’s Rookie of the Year balloting. He’d spend the next few seasons on the North Side of Chicago, seeing action all around the outfield. After a few down years, Smith rebounded to post a strong .300/.355/.494 showing across 111 games in 1993.

Smith split the 1994 campaign between the Angels and Orioles before joining Atlanta in advance of the ’95 season. He’d spent the next two years with the Braves as a part-time player, appearing in 204 regular season games between 1995-96. Smith saw a bit of playoff action that first year, which culminated in a World Series title. Altogether, he appeared in more than 800 contest over parts of eight seasons. He tallied just fewer than 2000 plate appearances, hitting .275/.333/.422 with 46 home runs, 42 stolen bases and 226 runs batted in.

MLBTR joins others around the game in sending our condolences to Smith’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Mets Exploring Trade Market For DH Options

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The Mets are exploring the market for a number of bats as they look to upgrade over what has been a generally unproductive tandem of Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis at designated hitter, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Nationals sluggers Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz, Colorado’s C.J. Cron and Baltimore’s Trey Mancini (as previously reported) are among the names in play.

Metsmerized’s Michael Mayer reported this week that the Mets have also had talks with the Pirates about left-handed-hitting Daniel Vogelbach, who is signed to a highly affordable $1MM contract with a $1.5MM option for the 2023 season. FanSided’s Robert Murray hears the same, though Murray notes that there are multiple teams inquiring about Vogelbach’s availability (as is surely the case with the Mets’ other reported targets). Martino describes conversations with the Pirates regarding Vogelbach as “active.”

The 29-year-old Vogelbach would surely be viewed as a platoon option in Queens, as he’s never hit lefties well and has again posted an inept .141/.267/.156 batting line against them. However, he’s crushed righties to the tune of a .260/.365/.532 batting line, swatting a dozen homers, nine doubles and a triple in just 203 trips to the plate when holding the platoon advantage this year. Vogelbach’s has long been a productive hitter against righties, and he’s not all that far removed from a smashing a career-high 30 homers with the 2019 Mariners.

There’s some appeal to Vogelbach beyond the strong platoon work and next year’s affordable club option, too. He entered the year with three-plus years of Major League service time, meaning that even after a club exercises next year’s option — which seems likely, whether it’s the Pirates, Mets or another trade partner — he’s still controllable through the 2024 season. Vogelbach would be arbitration-eligible in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.

The 29-year-old Bell is hitting .311/.390/.504 with 13 home runs this season, striking out at a career-low 13.5% and drawing walks at a hearty 10.7% pace. He’s earning $10MM this season, and while the Nationals might be wary of sending long-term pieces to the division-rival Mets (e.g. Juan Soto), Bell is a free agent at the end of the year, which probably eliminates any such concerns from Washington’s vantage point.

It’s a similar story for the 42-year-old Cruz, who’s earning $15MM this season and has a mutual option for the 2023 campaign. Those are rarely exercised by both parties, however, and players with mutual options are generally considered rentals for this reason. Cruz got out to an awful start in 2022 but has produced a solid .283/.362/.425 batting line in his past 247 plate appearances. He’s only homered six times in that span, showing a decidedly uncharacteristic lack of power, but Cruz has still been a productive hitter if you’re willing to set aside a slow start to the year.

As for Cron, it’s understandable that the Mets would harbor interest, but a deal seems unlikely to come together. Although the Rockies are 19 games out of the NL West lead and six and a half games back of the NL’s third Wild Card spot, the organization has opted not to deal what look to be on-paper trade candidates for years now. Ownership in Denver steadfastly believes the foundation of a contending club is in place, as evidenced by the glut of extensions doled out over the past year (as well as the surprising signing of Kris Bryant to a seven-year deal).

One need look no further than last year’s deadline to see that Cron isn’t likely to be moved. The Rockies were in this position a year ago, when Cron was playing on a cheap one-year deal and looked like a slam-dunk candidate to be flipped to a contender. The Rockies instead kept him and inked Cron to a two-year, $14.5MM extension. To their credit, Cron has been overwhelming bargain, hitting .298/.350/.552 with 21 homers this year. That’s outstanding production, but if the Rox balked at moving him a year ago when he was a free-agent-to-be, it only stands to reason that they’d be further dissuaded from trading him now (even though the contract likely makes him more appealing to potential suitors). General manager Bill Schmidt said just last week that he does not expect to be a major seller this summer.

Any of the names listed here would likely serve as an upgrade over the combined .219/.300/.368 batting line that Mets designated hitters have put together this season. That production includes 90 very productive plate appearances by Pete Alonso as DH, which only underscores how rough the non-Alonso DH options have been at Citi Field this season.

As for what would happen with the current DH options the Mets have in-house, it somewhat unsurprisingly seems as though a change of scenery may be in the fold. Smith was just placed on the injured list due to an ankle sprain but could return by the middle of next week. The Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams to have talked to the Mets about a potential trade. Martino writes that the Mets are “working to trade Smith,” adding that Davis could be moved as well.

Smith has struggled in 2021-22 after a hugely productive 2019-20 showing, while Davis’ power numbers have tumbled this year despite eye-popping exit velocity and hard-hit numbers. Both are controllable for two years beyond the current campaign, which might make them appealing to a club that’s not a current contender but can afford to give Smith or Davis consistent playing time while showing a bit more patience than the Mets have the luxury of doing in a competitive setting atop the NL East.

Orioles Agree To Terms With First Overall Pick Jackson Holliday

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The Orioles have reached an agreement Jackson Holliday, the first overall selection of the 2022 MLB draft, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Holliday will get a bonus “just a touch” higher than the $8.185MM received by Druw Jones, the second overall pick. Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Sun reports that the bonus is $8.19MM.

The #1 overall pick came with an accompanying slot value of $8.84MM. It seems like the Orioles will save around $650K to spread around to some of their other draft picks.

The Orioles have a bonus pool of $16.933MM at their disposal, the largest amount for this year’s draft. Teams are allowed to outspend their pool by as much as 5% without losing future draft picks, although there is a 75% tax on the overage. That means the Orioles can spend around $17.78MM in bonuses, though it seems Holliday will take close to half of that.

Holliday, 18, is a second generation baseball talent, as he’s the son of long-time big leaguer Matt Holliday. The left-handed hitting shortstop was ranked the #3 player in the draft class by Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, #2 by FanGraphs and #6 by The Athletic. BA compliments all aspects of his game, giving him at least 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale in the five categories for position players (60 hit, 55 power, 60 run, 55 field and 60 arm).

Holliday had committed to Oklahoma State but will seemingly forgo that commitment to join an Orioles organization that keeps swelling with talent. Adley Rutschman recently graduated out of prospect status but was considered by many to be the top prospect in the game prior to that. Even without Rutschman, the O’s have four players on the top 100 list at BA, with pitchers Grayson Rodriguez (#4) and DL Hall (#51) slotted in along with shortstops Gunnar Henderson (#7) and Jordan Westburg (#97).

The Market For Rental Starters Is On Shaky Ground

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The starting pitchers that have received, and surely will continue to receive, the most attention in trade rumors are Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. It’s not surprising, given that they’re all quality pitchers, have been in rumors for a long time and are currently playing for obvious sellers. They also each come with an extra year of control, making them doubly enticing. Why add an exciting new pitcher for just one postseason push when you can do it for two? MLBTR recently ranked the trade candidates and placed them #4, 5 and 6, respectively.

However, with upwards of a dozen teams looking to bolster their pitching staffs in the coming weeks, not all of them will succeed in grabbing one of that trio. In fact, with their extra control, there’s no guarantee any of them will be traded. Montas and Mahle are both dealing with minor injuries right now, and though both are expected to be well enough to pitch before the deadline, there’s always the possibility of the injury getting worse and scuttling trade hopes. Regardless, some teams are going to have to look farther down the list of trade candidates, which is where things get murky.

The top 50 list linked above featured six starters who are set to reach free agency at the end of the year: José Quintana at #7, Martín Pérez at #12, Chad Kuhl at #17, Jordan Lyles at #18, Noah Syndergaard at #21 and Mike Clevinger at #38. (Lyles isn’t a rental in the strictest sense, as he has an $11MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. But since the odds seem to be against that getting picked up, I’ve included him here.) That makes them a little less desired on the market, but also means the acquisition cost should be lower. Although that list was published less than two weeks ago, the sand has already started to shift a bit under this market, and could potentially do so again in the weeks to come.

Quintana was having an excellent start to his season but has slipped recently. When he landed that #7 spot on the list a couple of weeks ago, he had a 3.33 ERA. However, he’s had two miserable starts since then, allowing four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on July 1o, followed by six earned runs in five innings on July 15. His ERA has jumped up to 3.99 just from those two outings. Teams aren’t likely to radically alter their evaluation of a pitcher based on just two starts, especially with the latter taking place in Coors Field. But then again, Quintana’s strong first half was also a small sample, coming after a few years of ineffective work. He had a 4.68 ERA in 2019, then was limited to just ten innings in 2020 due to injury. Last year, he worked mostly as a reliever and put up a 6.43 ERA. He’s made 18 starts this year and two bad ones won’t completely undo the rest, but how much will a team value those 16 decent ones after years of mediocrity? Were those last two starts flukes or regression to the mean?

Pérez is in a similar boat, as he was out-pitching his track record in the early going but has come back down to earth of late. At the end of his start on June 5th, he had a 1.56 ERA but has a 4.54 since. He still has an excellent 2.68 mark on the season overall based on that strong start, but the recent rough patch raises questions. After eight straight seasons with an ERA between 4.38 and 6.22, has he suddenly turned a corner at the age of 31? Or was it a mirage that’s now fading from view? Either way, there’s also the extra complication that the Rangers might just hang onto Pérez and extend him.

Kuhl’s situation has some parallels as well, as he had a 3.17 ERA through his June 3 start but a 5.45 over his last seven outings. Further complicating matters is the fact that the Rockies seem to be leaning towards doing their thing that they do, holding onto obvious trade candidates and hoping to work out extensions. Last year, they didn’t trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray or C.J. Cron, despite all three heading towards free agency. They recouped a draft pick when Story rejected the qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, extended Cron but came up short in trying to hang onto Gray. This year, it seems like Kuhl might be this year’s Cron, as he’s apparently comfortable in Colorado and willing to stay beyond this season. Any team that wanted to acquire him would probably have to blow away the Rockies with an overpay.

As for Lyles, his situation has changed not so much because of his performance, but the rest of the team. When that list was published, the Orioles were 41-44. They were on a six-game win streak, but that seemed to be a flash in the pan of what would surely go down as another miserable season in Baltimore. Well, that six-game win streak eventually turned in a ten-gamer, and the O’s are now 46-46, just 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Does that make them change their deadline approach? Perhaps, perhaps not. The odds of a postseason berth are still low, with FanGraphs giving them a 1.4% chance. But with excited fans turning out to Camden Yards for the first time in years, would the club still pull the plug on deadline selling? Lyles was just signed this offseason and isn’t a fan favorite like Trey Mancini. But with his 4.76 ERA, he’s not likely to bring back much more than a lottery ticket prospect anyway. Perhaps the O’s would be better served to just hang onto those innings and hope that 1.4% number grows.

Unlike the Orioles, the Angels have only dug themselves into a deeper hole. At the time MLBTR’s rankings came out, they were seven games out of a playoff spot, theoretically one hot streak away from jumping right back into the mix. However, they’ve unfortunately gone the other way, slipping to 10 1/2 back. That should only solidify Syndergaard as a guaranteed trade chip. But like many of the other pitchers highlighted here, he hasn’t been at his best lately. He had a 3.53 ERA through mid-June but a 5.01 over his last four starts. That’s a small sample, but he hasn’t looked like himself this season. After only throwing two innings over 2020-2021 due to Tommy John surgery and with his velocity down from his pre-surgery form, it’s fair to wonder if there might be some fatigue setting in.

Clevinger is a unique case, compared to the other names on this list. The Padres aren’t looking to sell because they’re not competitive, quite the opposite. It’s because they are competitive that they are looking to use their rotation surplus to create payroll space in order to upgrade elsewhere without going over the luxury tax. Moving Clevinger would be one way to do it, though his $5.75MM CBT hit is much less than Blake Snell’s $10MM. From San Diego’s perspective, moving Snell is probably preferable for the extra breathing space. A team could certainly try to work out a Clevinger deal, but you’d be competing with whatever teams are offering for Snell, as well as any other Clevinger suitors.

There are a few other names to consider, of course, but all come with similar question marks. Arizona’s Zach Davies is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Detroit’s Michael Pineda only recently returned from a broken finger and had his worst start of a generally underwhelming season just before the break. Mike Minor has an ERA north of 6.00 with the Reds.

All in all, there’s not a ton to bank on here. Any team that doesn’t pony up for Castillo, Montas or Mahle is going to be left with these options, all of whom come with question marks. There are other controllable starters who could be available, such as Oakland’s Paul Blackburn. But with three extra years of control, the A’s surely won’t just give him away. And he, too, has seen a downturn in performance over the last month (7.46 ERA over past five starts). We’re now less than two weeks until the August 2 trade deadline, so the remaining games for these pitchers will be magnified. With the expanded playoffs, there are still 17 teams that have at least a 29.7% chance to make the postseason, per FanGraphs. That has the potential for a situation with high demand and low supply in the days to come, bad news for those who need pitching but good news for those selling it.

Orioles Select Jackson Holliday With First Pick Of 2022 Draft

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The Orioles selected high school shortstop Jackson Holliday with the first overall selection of the 2022 amateur draft.  Holliday joins Adley Rutschman (2019) and Ben McDonald (1989) as players taken by the Orioles with the 1-1 pick, and he is the first high schooler taken first overall since the Twins drafted Royce Lewis in 2017.

Talent runs in the family, as Jackson is the son of longtime Cardinals and Rockies star Matt Holliday.  Continuing the theme of family ties, the younger Holliday becomes only the second son of a former Major League player to be taken with the 1-1 selection — the first was Ken Griffey Jr. back in 1987.

Jackson HollidayTime will tell if Holliday can approach a Hall-of-Fame or All-Star level, but the 18-year-old is one of the more highly-touted members of the 2022 draft class.  Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline each ranked Holliday as the second-best prospect of the class, with Kiley McDaniel and Baseball America each slotting Holliday third on their rankings, and The Athletic’s Keith Law rated Holliday sixth.

A left-handed hitter, Holliday has a smooth swing that generated a lot of hard contract and an increasing amount of power as his senior year progressed.  Most evaluators give him at least plus grades across the board, and as Fangraphs’ scouting report puts it, Holliday “checks literally every box, and there aren’t many lefty-hitting shortstops with this kind of juice.  He projects as an All-Star shortstop.”  While not a defensive standout per se, Holliday’s instincts and throwing arm should allow him to remain at shortstop, though he would seem to have the athleticism to be tested at other positions if the Orioles wanted to experiment.

With Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg also in Baltimore’s system as blue-chip shortstop prospects, the O’s have built up some enviable depth at a key position on the diamond.  The Orioles’ lengthy rebuild has brought quite a few top youngsters into the farm system, and perhaps the earliest impact is starting to be seen on the field in 2022, given the team’s surprising presence in the wild card race at the All-Star break.

Since Mike Elias took over the Orioles’ front office, the club has traditionally drafted college players early — Grayson Rodriguez (2018) is the only other prep first-rounder selected during Elias’ tenure.  Signability has also been a factor for the O’s, who have often taken players slightly lower on projection boards, in an attempt to land players who would sign for under-slot deals.

That way, Baltimore has more bonus-pool space to spend on other quality picks later in the draft, and perhaps have flexibility to go over-slot to land premium talent at lower draft positions.  The Orioles have a $16,924,000 bonus pool, and the first overall pick has an assigned slot value of $8,842,200.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Guardians Claim Kirk McCarty, Designate Alex Young

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The Guardians have claimed left-hander Kirk McCarty off waivers from the Orioles, according to an announcement from Baltimore. It’s a reversal of a transaction from just last week, when the O’s nabbed him from Cleveland. Mandy Bell of MLB.com relays a series of additional transactions for the Guardians (on Twitter). They’ve also selected the contract of southpaw Tanner Tully from Triple-A Columbus, placed starter Aaron Civale on the 15-day injured list with a sprained right wrist and designated lefty Alex Young for assignment. Additionally, outfielder Óscar Mercado has gone unclaimed on waivers and sent outright to Columbus.

McCarty has spent the bulk of his five-year professional career in the Cleveland system. A 7th-round pick in 2017, he reached the majors for the first time in April as a COVID replacement. The following month, the Guardians selected him permanently onto the 40-man roster, and he started two of his three big league appearances. McCarty allowed 13 runs in his first 12 MLB innings, and Cleveland designated him for assignment two weeks ago. Baltimore grabbed the Southern Miss product off waivers, but he made just one start for their Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk before being taken off their 40-man roster earlier in the week.

Now that he’s been reclaimed by Cleveland, McCarty will resume his role as a depth swingman. He’s been optioned to Columbus, where he posted a 3.77 ERA with a modest 18.7% strikeout rate but a strong 7.1% walk percentage through 43 innings before his first DFA. He’ll no doubt hope to stick on the 40-man for a more extended stretch this time around. McCarty is only in his first minor league option year, so the Guardians can move him between Cleveland and Columbus for the next few years if he holds a 40-man spot.

Tully, an Ohio State product, has followed a similar path. First added to the roster as virus substitute, he was formally selected last month. Cleveland designated the former 26th-rounder for assignment a few days later, and he passed through waivers unclaimed. Tully has been hit hard in five MLB innings, but he’s been a strike-throwing rotation arm in Columbus.

Through 14 starts with the Clippers, the 27-year-old owns a 4.95 ERA. He’s only fanned 16.9% of batters faced, but he has a pristine 3.3% walk percentage and has induced grounders on over half the batted balls against him in the minors. Like McCarty, Tully has all three options remaining. He’ll join a rotation mix that has to navigate an injury to Civale, who left yesterday’s start against the White Sox early with wrist soreness. The club hasn’t provided a firm table for the righty’s return, but he’ll at least miss the next couple weeks.

It’s the second IL stint of the season for Civale, who has had a rough year even when able to take the mound. Through 12 starts, the 27-year-old sports a 6.17 ERA. That’s easily a career-worst and more than two runs higher than the 3.84 mark he put together through 124 1/3 innings last year. Civale’s strikeout and walk numbers are virtually unchanged relative to last season, but he’s seen a marked decrease in ground-balls and given up quite a bit more hard contact.

Young, meanwhile, loses his roster spot after a lone appearance as a Guardian. Cleveland selected the former Diamondback southpaw on July 3, and he recorded an out in a game against the Tigers a day later. He was promptly optioned back to Columbus and now will be made available to other teams. That’s in spite of his strong production with the Clippers, as Young owns a 3.77 ERA through 31 innings of relief. He’s punched out an excellent 35.9% of opponents, walked only 5.5% of hitters and racked up grounders at a 51.4% clip.

That stellar minor league showing could draw Young some attention from other clubs in the next week, as Cleveland will have to deal him or try to run him through waivers. The former second-round pick hasn’t had much big league success (4.90 ERA through 182 career innings), but he’s not yet arbitration-eligible and still in his second option year. Young has been outrighted in his career before, so he’d have the right to elect minor league free agency even if he goes unclaimed on waivers.

That isn’t the case for Mercado, who has never previously cleared waivers nor eclipsed three years of big league service time. He’ll have to accept an assignment to Columbus and hope to play his way back onto the roster before the end of the year. It’s at least a temporary end of a roster flux for Mercado, who’d been designated for assignment three times in fairly rapid succession. He was let go by Cleveland late last month, claimed off waivers by the Phillies, then brought back by the Guardians before being DFA again.

Mercado, 27, is still a strong defensive outfielder, but he’s run into marked offensive troubles since a solid rookie season in 2019. Over the past three years, he has a .200/.258/.330 line in 459 trips to the plate. The extent of those struggles eventually squeezed him off the roster. Mercado is out of options, so he first needed to clear waivers before he could be sent back to the minors. Now that he’s done so, he’ll get his first crack against Triple-A arms this year and try to right the ship.

Latest On Orioles’ Deadline Outlook

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The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

Orioles Claim Louis Head From Marlins, Designate Kirk McCarty

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4:30pm: The Orioles have announced the claim and that Head has been optioned to Triple-A. To make room on the 40-man roster, they have designated lefty Kirk McCarty for assignment. McCarty had just been claimed off waivers from the Guardians last week and thrown four innings for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides before heading back into DFA limbo. The O’s will have one week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him.

1:20pm: The Orioles have claimed right-hander Louis Head off waivers from the Marlins, according to Mark Feinsand and Christina De Nicola of MLB.com.

Head, 32, made his major league debut with the Rays last year, throwing 35 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 31.1% ground ball rate. There was likely some good fortune keeping that ERA down, as Head allowed a .216 batting average on balls in play, well below last year’s .290 league average.

In the offseason, the Rays flipped him to the Marlins for a player to be named later, which was eventually revealed to be Josh Roberson. Here in 2022, the Marlins surely didn’t get what they were hoping for out of Head. Through 23 2/3 innings, he has an unfortunate 7.23 ERA, with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 26.4% ground ball rate, all of those numbers being worse than league average. He was placed on the IL on June 23 with an impingement in his non-throwing shoulder. He began a rehab assignment three days ago but won’t return to the Marlins, heading to the Baltimore organization instead.

The move is a little curious, as Head still has options. When he finished his rehab assignment, he could have simply been sent to Triple-A as depth, but the Marlins evidently wanted to move on instead. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, only release waivers. Although there had not been any public indication he’d been designated for assignment, it appears the Marlins put him on release waivers recently, with the Orioles putting in a claim.

Baltimore has a full 40-man roster at the moment, meaning a corresponding move of some kind will be required to accommodate Head’s addition.

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