Red Sox’s Chris Sale Drawing Trade Interest
Teams are reportedly checking in with the Red Sox on the availability of seven-time All-Star Chris Sale, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. However, Heyman notes that Boston is “not looking to trade any of their starters,” but is “willing to listen and consider.” Sale is currently owed $55MM through the 2024 season. Nevertheless, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).
Arriving in Boston after the 2016 season, Sale continued to display his superiority on the mound, pitching to sub-3 ERAs in 2017 and 2018 while helping the Red Sox win their fourth World Series Championship since 2000. Following their victory, Boston and Sale soon hammered out a five-year, $145MM extension (with a vesting option for the 2025 season) that many believed to be a bargain at the time for a starting pitcher that had seven consecutive All-Star appearances, six consecutive Top-5 Cy Young finishes, four consecutive seasons of MVP consideration, and boasted a career 2.89 ERA in 1482 1/3 innings with a 30.2 SO%, 5.7% BB, and 42.9% ground ball rate.
However, after signing that extension Sale went on to have arguably the worst full season of his career. In 2019, the southpaw saw his ERA balloon to a career-high 4.40 in 147 1/3 innings while dealing with inflammation in his pitching elbow that forced a premature end to his year.
After rehabilitation and undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection, expectations were high for the lefty as the extension went into effect for the 2020 season. However, Sale would soon be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in March 2020, missing the entirety of the truncated season and the first half of the 2021 season. He was then shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. Then, shortly before he was scheduled to return to the club, the Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.
Altogether, it’s been a near-nightmarish start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.
The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello is tentatively lined up for a turn in the rotation but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks and sparks of brilliance). Righties Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have rotation potential but both have thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Additional righty starters Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, and Connor Seabold were all posted ERAs north of 5.25 as rookies in 2022.
With Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill departing via free agency and Sale and James Paxton (also returning from injury) wild cards, the Red Sox were expected to target starting pitching this offseason. Nevertheless, the club has yet to add to their staff, instead fortifying their bullpen and adding position players Masataka Yoshida and Justin Turner.
From a financial perspective, if Sale, who is projected to be healthy for Spring Training, can return to even a fraction of his dominant self, the Red Sox will have control of a top-tier starting pitcher who can be considered ‘cheap’ when compared to other high-level starters that have recently signed large contracts with AAVs greater than $35MM, such as Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom. That’s not to say that Sale is currently at the level of those pitchers, but that he has been at similar heights and could reasonably reach a prominent level of production again
Currently, Roster Resource projects Boston’s payroll to be near $177MM, and their competitive balance tax figure to be roughly $203MM. With the base competitive balance tax threshold set at $233MM for the 2023 season, the Red Sox are in no rush to shed salary and may instead hold onto Sale in the hopes that he returns to his pre-Tommy John levels of excellence.
Quick Hits: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rangers
The Diamondbacks have added former pitcher Rolando Valles to their major league coaching staff, per Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Valles takes the position vacated by former D-Backs bench coach Luis Urueta, who left the team in November to join the Marlins in the same role. When discussing the hiring, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Valles will be part of Arizona’s “run-prevention team.”
Signed by the Astros as an undrafted free agent in 1997, Valles would spend five years in the club’s system, reaching Low-A, before playing another five seasons in independent leagues. He then transitioned to an organizational role, spending two seasons with the Brewers in their player development system helping players with their off-field needs and on-field development before becoming a minor league pitching coach in 2010. Valles joined the Reds in 2019 in an associate coaching role where he engaged in offensive and pitching duties.
Some more notes from around the game…
- The recent passing of a ‘millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.
- With the Red Sox witnessing their longtime shortstop Xander Bogarts leave in free agency, the club has been connected with several middle infielders to fill the hole, most recently signing Niko Goodrum to a Minor League deal and discussing Joey Wendle with the Marlins. However, the door for Kike Hernandez to play a key role in the infield has not been completely shut. The super utilityman told reports that he is “preparing to play center field every day … but I haven’t thrown away my infield glove,” adding that he continues to take ground balls. Over nine seasons, the 31-year-old has logged 2,335 innings at short and second base but has primarily patrolled Fenway’s outfield in recent years. From a defensive standpoint, advanced metrics concerning Hernandez’s middle infield production are split. Since 2014 at the shortstop position, the righty is credited with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) but a -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). Similarly, since 2014 at second base, Hernandez has amassed 18 DRS but a -6.1 UZR and -5 OAA.
- Despite missing the entirety of the 2022 season, Michael Conforto and agent Scott Boras were able to secure the outfielder a two-year, $36MM contract with the Giants. Important to the deal, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, was the no-barrier opt out presented to Conforto by San Francisco. Grant adds that while the Rangers offered the left-handed hitter a deal similar to the Giants, Conforto would have to meet certain playing thresholds to execute the opt out.
Red Sox, Marlins Have Discussed Joey Wendle In Trade Talks
The Red Sox have had some discussions with the Marlins about infielder Joey Wendle, reports Chad Jennings of the Athletic. There’s no indication a deal is imminent or even likely, as he’s one of a number of names whom Boston has looked into as they search for middle infield help.
Wendle is headed into his second season in Miami. The Marlins acquired him from their in-state counterparts last offseason, sending minor league outfielder Kameron Misner to the Rays. That was one of a number of transactions Miami made in hopes of adding a jolt to their lineup, as they also brought in Jacob Stallings via trade and Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler through free agency.
None of those additions panned out as expected in year one. Wendle had his worst season in a few years, hitting .259/.297/.360 over 371 trips to the plate. He kept his strikeout rate in check, punching out in a career-low 13.5% of plate appearances. That higher-contact approach was the product of increased aggressiveness at the dish, and it tamped down his walk rate to a meager 4% clip. Wendle managed just three home runs, and he played in only 101 games around a trio of injured list stints thanks to issues with both hamstrings.
Wendle’s value is certainly at a low ebb, though there are reasons the Boston front office could view him as a solid bounceback target. He’d posted above-average offensive numbers in three of his four seasons with Tampa Bay, showing the ability to handle the AL East. Between 2018-21, the left-handed batter compiled a .274/.330/.414 mark in just under 1500 plate appearances. His power and walk rates were both a touch below average, but he demonstrated plus contact skills. He was particularly adept against right-handed pitching, putting together a .287/.337/.439 mark with the platoon advantage. During his first two seasons with the Rays, Wendle overlapped with Chaim Bloom. The current Red Sox chief baseball officer was a high-ranking member of the Tampa Bay front office at the time.
At his best, Wendle pairs that slightly above-average offense with quality defense around the infield. He’s primarily a second and third baseman, logging more than 1500 career innings at each spot. Public defensive metrics have loved the former All-Star’s work at the keystone, while he’s earned more solid but unspectacular marks at the hot corner. Wendle has never been an everyday player at shortstop, but he’s logged limited time there in each of the last five years. He topped out with 233 1/3 innings for Miami this past season, posting strong marks in that very limited sample.
Jennings suggests the Red Sox are eyeing Wendle as a potential option at shortstop after the departure of Xander Bogaerts. Turning to him there regularly would be a bold gambit, as he’s headed into his age-33 season and coming off a year in which he was nagged by leg injuries. Playing him more frequently at second base with an occasional game at shortstop would be more straightforward, yet Jennings suggests the front office is somewhat divided on how best to handle the middle infield.
Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM free agent deal last offseason. The longtime Rockie shortstop posted strong defensive numbers throughout his time in Colorado, but some evaluators raised questions about his arm late in that tenure. That wasn’t a concern in 2022, as Story moved to second base in deference to Boagerts. He posted strong numbers there, showcasing high-end range and hands. His arm remained subpar, though, with Statcast ranking him 155th out of 162 qualified infielders in maximum throw speed. Story averaged 76.1 MPH on his throws, around four MPH below average at second base and nearly 10 ticks below the league mark at shortstop.
That alone doesn’t mean Story can’t play shortstop. He’d had a below-average arm for the position in both 2020-21 and still rated highly there by measure of both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating (albeit with less enthusiastic reviews from Statcast). Bloom has previously suggested Story’s presently the favorite for the position, but Jennings writes that some in the front office would rather keep Story at second base and play Enrique Hernández at shortstop. That’d require finding someone to replace Hernández in center field, so bringing in another middle infielder would be the simpler solution.
Wendle figures to be attainable in trade, even if Jennings characterizes Miami’s current asking price as high. With over five years of MLB service, Wendle is in his final year of team control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.4MM salary for his final arbitration season. That’s reasonable but not insignificant for a Miami club that is seemingly up against it from a payroll perspective. The Marlins are known to be looking for ways to upgrade their lineup and have yet to address it in any meaningful capacity. Moving Wendle’s salary while recouping some pre-arbitration or minor league talent could be appealing for general manager Kim Ng and her staff as they try to create some flexibility to kickstart their offseason.
It seems a trade is Boston’s preferred means for adding the up-the-middle talent they desire. Jennings suggests any interest on their part in the top remaining free agent shortstops like Elvis Andrus and José Iglesias is fairly modest. He reports they’ve given internal consideration to players like Cleveland’s Amed Rosario and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong at points this winter but no longer seem to be targeting those players. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported earlier this month that Boston had reached out to the Fish on shortstop Miguel Rojas; however, it seems unlikely Miami would move Rojas, a clubhouse leader and quality defensive shortstop, without being overwhelmed by the return.
Red Sox Release Eric Hosmer
December 22: As expected, Hosmer has been released, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.
December 16: The Red Sox have acquired right-hander Wyatt Mills from the Royals in exchange for minor league righty Jacob Wallace and opened a spot on the roster by designating first baseman Eric Hosmer for assignment, per a team announcement.
Hosmer came to the Sox in a deadline deal just a few months ago. The Padres signed him to an eight-year, $144MM contract going into 2018, a deal that most observers considered an overpay from the moment it was announced. Hosmer’s production dipped thereafter, which only added to the albatross nature of the deal.
In 2017, his last year with the Royals, Hosmer hit .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135, indicating that he was 35% better than league average. But in his first season as a Padre, he produced a line of .253/.322/.398 for a wRC+ of 95. Apart from a surge in the shortened 2020 campaign, he’s been around league average in each season and frequently mentioned in trade rumors with San Diego hoping to get rid of him. As the deadline approached this past summer, Hosmer was originally included in the blockbuster deal that was to send Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego. However, Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that included the Nationals, allowing him to veto the deal. Instead, Luke Voit was sent to Washington in his place, but the Padres then quickly dealt Hosmer to the Red Sox, who were not on his no-trade list.
As part of that deal, the Red Sox would only have to pay Hosmer the league minimum salary, with the Padres remaining on the hook for the rest of it. With this move just a few months later, it seems the trade was more about the young players involved, as Boston sent pitching prospect Jay Groome to the Padres but received a couple prospects as well in Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson. It’s also possible that the club viewed Hosmer as a bit of a safety net at first base, where Bobby Dalbec had been struggling and prospect Triston Casas had yet to reach the majors. Casas was called up in September and launched five home runs down the stretch as well as walking in 20% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .197/.358/.408, wRC+ of 120. Perhaps that debut gave them enough confidence to proceed without Hosmer.
Whatever the motivation, Hosmer’s time in Boston seems likely to end after just 14 games. The club will have one week to trade him or put him on waivers, though a trade will be difficult to arrange. As part of Hosmer’s contract, he gained a full no-trade clause after being dealt by the Padres. It’s also possible that a team might have interest in claiming Hosmer off release waivers, as his minimal salary would create a no-risk scenario for the claiming club. However, players on release waivers are allowed to reject claims and elect free agency, which likely means no team would bother putting in a claim. It seems the most likely scenario is that Hosmer ends up released and returns to the open market.
Though he hasn’t produced more than 0.8 fWAR in any season since 2017, it’s likely some teams that need help at first base or designated hitter would have some interest. The Padres are on the hook for the $39MM owed to Hosmer over the next three years and any team that signs him would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Padres pay.
Over the last three seasons, his batting line is .271/.335/.407 for a wRC+ of 107, or 7% above league average. That doesn’t lead to a lot of value overall as he is generally graded as a poor defender, but it’s possible he could find a bit of uptick at the plate next year. The upcoming rules on defensive shifts are expected to primarily benefit left-handed hitters like Hosmer, as teams stack the right side of the infield with defenders. Hosmer’s worst trait as a hitter is his incredibly high ground ball tendencies, as his career rate is 54.5%. For reference, this year’s league average as 42.9%.
Many of the top first baseman from this winter’s free agent class have already been signed, with José Abreu, Josh Bell and Anthony Rizzo off the board. For clubs still looking for upgrades there, Hosmer will likely join the remaining options, such as Trey Mancini, Brandon Drury, Matt Carpenter, Wil Myers and Brandon Belt.
As for the other players involved in today’s announcement, Mills, 28 next month, was designated for assignment by the Royals when they signed Ryan Yarbrough earlier this week. The Royals had only acquired him a few months earlier as part of the Carlos Santana trade. He tossed 29 1/3 innings for the Royals with a 4.60 ERA, but the Red Sox are likely more interested in his minor league numbers. In 33 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, he posted a 2.14 ERA while striking out 29.9% of batters faced, though he also walked 12.7% of them. He still has an option year remaining, giving them an intriguing depth option with roster flexibility.
Wallace, 24, was drafted by the Rockies but came to the Red Sox as the player to be named later in the Kevin Pillar trade. He spent this year in Double-A, tossing 56 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 30.4% strikeout rate, though a huge 19.6% walk rate.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Nationals Claim Jeter Downs, Designate Reed Garrett
The Nationals announced they have claimed infielder Jeter Downs off waivers from the Red Sox. Downs had been recently designated for assignment by Boston. To create space on the 40-man roster, the Nats designated reliever Reed Garrett for assignment. Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post. reported the claim of Downs prior to the official announcement.
Downs, 24, is perhaps best known as one of the key pieces of the trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers in February of 2020. Downs went to the Red Sox alongside Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong. At the time, Downs was a highly-touted prospect, featuring on the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 list in both 2020 and 2021.
Unfortunately, his stock has completely nosedived in the past two years. After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020, Downs spent 2021 in Triple-A, getting into 99 games on the year. His power and speed were still evident, as he hit 14 home runs and stole 18 bases. However, he struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances and finished with a batting line of .190/.272/.333 for a wRC+ of 62.
2022 was an improvement but only slightly. His strikeout rate dropped but was still quite high at 29.6%. He added another 16 homers and swiped 18 more bags, but his batting line of .197/.316/.412 added up to a 95 wRC+. He also got into 14 MLB games but hit just .154/.171/.256 in that small sample, striking out in 51.2% of his trips to the plate.
The Sox gave up on him by designating him for assignment last week but the rebuilding Nats will give him a shot. He’s still only 24, was a top prospect less than two years ago and has two option years remaining. He also brings defensive versatility, having primarily played shortstop but also some second and third base.
The Nats will have a young middle infield consisting of CJ Abrams at shortstop and Luis Garcia at second. Third base figures to be manned by Jeimer Candelario, though he’s only on a one-year deal and could be dealt at midseason if he’s performing well. Carter Kieboom is also in the mix for work at the hot corner though he’s struggled in the big leagues so far and missed the 2022 season entirely due to Tommy John surgery. Veteran Ildemaro Vargas is also on hand as a utility option, though there are avenues there for Downs to work his way into the picture if he can get things back on track.
Garrett, 30 in January, he has limited MLB experience, getting into 13 games with the 2019 Tigers and another seven with the 2022 Nationals with a stint in Japan in between. He posted a 6.75 ERA in the big leagues this year but was much better in the minors. He logged 47 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.04 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. The Nats will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He still has a couple of option years remaining and had solid minor league numbers this year, which could lead to some interest from other clubs.
Denny Doyle Passes Away
Former major league infielder Denny Doyle passed away yesterday, according to multiple reports. He was 78 years old.
Doyle appeared in parts of eight big league seasons during the 1970’s. A Kentucky native, he attended Morehead State before entering the professional ranks with the Phillies in 1966. He’d play four years in the minors before cracking the majors a bit after his 26th birthday in 1970. Doyle would work as the Phils primary second baseman for his first four MLB seasons.
Listed at just 5’9″, Doyle didn’t bring much power to the table. He never topped four home runs in a season, but he was adept at putting the ball in play. Doyle struck out in fewer than 10% of his plate appearances in each season from 1971-76, a time when the league strikeout percentage sat in the 13-14% range. Teams clearly valued his up-the-middle defense as well.
The Phillies traded Doyle to the Angels after the 1973 season. He spent the ’74 campaign with California, and he’d remain there through the first few months of the following season. In June, the Angels dealt him to the Red Sox for a player to be named later (eventually minor league pitcher Chuck Ross). That move paid off for Boston, as Doyle hit .310/.339/.429 in 89 games down the stretch. He received some down ballot MVP votes for his performance and, more importantly, earned a key role on the Sox’s 1975 pennant-winning team.
Doyle appeared in and picked up a hit in all seven games of that year’s World Series showdown with the Reds, one of the most iconic series in MLB history. Boston would come up short in that set, relinquishing a three-run lead late in the decisive Game 7 and losing 4-3 on a two-out RBI single by Joe Morgan in the top half of the ninth. Doyle went 8-30 with a pair of walks and one strikeout in that series.
After two more seasons in Boston, Doyle retired following the 1977 campaign. He finished his career with a bit less than 1000 games played. Over 3572 plate appearances, he posted a .250/.296/.316 line. Doyle only hit 16 homers but collected 823 hits, including 113 doubles and 28 triples. He drove in 237 runs and scored 357 times.
Doyle’s brothers Brian Doyle and Blake Doyle have also had roles in MLB. Brian played in parts of four seasons with the Yankees and A’s from 1978-81, while Blake served as hitting coach of the Rockies during the mid-2010’s. MLBTR sends our condolences to them and the entire Doyle family, as well as Denny Doyle’s friends, former teammates and loved ones.
Red Sox Sign Niko Goodrum To Minor League Deal
The Red Sox announced that utility player Niko Goodrum will be a non-roster invitee for their upcoming Spring Training. Prior to the official announcement, Robert Murray of FanSided reported Goodrum had joined the organization on a minor league deal.
Goodrum, 31 in February, seemed to establish himself as a useful player with the Tigers in 2018 and 2019, hitting around league average but adding some defensive versatility and speed. Over that two-year stretch, he hit 28 home runs and stole 24 bases, producing a batting line of .247/.318/.427. That period included the “juiced ball” season of 2019, so that production was actually just below league average, with Goodrum having a 98 wRC+ for that two-year timeframe. He also struck out in 28% of his plate appearances, but was still a useful piece with that average-ish bat and defensive versatility, playing every infield and outfield position.
Unfortunately, he’s been on a downward trajectory since that time. He slid to .184/.263/.335 in the next year for a wRC+ of 63, though that could have been written off as an anomaly of the pandemic-shortened year. He rebounded in 2021, but only slightly, finishing that season at .214/.292/.359, 81 wRC+. He also saw his strikeouts become even more of an issue, jumping to 38.5% in 2020 and 32.9% a year later.
That was disappointing enough for the Tigers to move on, non-tendering Goodrum prior to the 2022 season. The Astros decided to take a flier on a bounceback, signing him for one year and $2.1MM. But things went from bad to worse in Houston, with Goodrum striking out 51.1% of the time in a small sample of 45 plate appearances and hitting just .116/.156/.163. The Astros optioned him to the farm but he got injured down there and only played 20 minor league games. He was designated for assignment and released as the season was winding down.
Like the Astros did a year ago, the Red Sox will now take a chance on Goodrum and hope for a return to form. In this case, it’s essentially a no-risk move for Boston since it’s a minor league deal and they haven’t committed a roster spot to him. They have some uncertainty in their position player mix at the moment with the departure of Xander Bogaerts. It seems like Trevor Story will move to take over shortstop, leaving second base for Christian Arroyo. They have some options who could serve as bench infielders, with Enmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton on the 40-man roster. However, they were both just added in November and neither has any MLB experience. Goodrum’s signing adds a more seasoned option into the mix.
If Goodrum can get back on track and earn his way onto the roster, he’ll be able to be controlled beyond this season. He has over four years of MLB service time and could be retained via arbitration until he gets over the six-year mark. He also has a couple of option years remaining, though players with over five years of MLB service cannot be optioned without their consent. Goodrum is at 4.069 and could cross that threshold this season, with a “year” being flipped at the 172-day mark.
Red Sox Agree To Sign Justin Turner
6:41PM: Another breakdown is provided by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who reports that Turner will earn $15MM in 2023, and then $7.7MM in 2024 if he exercises his player option. Another $1MM is available to Turner in incentive bonuses in 2023, as he can unlock a series of $200K bonuses if he reaches at least 480 plate appearances.
6:01PM: Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has a different set of contract numbers, reporting that Turner will get only $8.3MM in 2023 and then $11.4MM in 2024 if he exercises the player option. Unless is a signing bonus or buyout also attached to the deal, Speier’s report would indicate that Turner is only receiving $19.7MM in guaranteed salary. The $8.3MM figure in 2023 in particular looks like a very nice bargain for the Red Sox on what could well end up being a one-year commitment to a 38-year-old player.
5:26PM: Turner will earn $14MM in 2023, Heyman reports, and the 2024 player option is worth $8MM.
4:54PM: The Red Sox have agreed to a deal with infielder Justin Turner, according to ESPN’s Joon Lee and Jeff Passan (Twitter links). The two-year contract will pay Turner slightly less than $22MM, and Turner can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season. Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links) reported earlier today that Turner and the Sox were “looking close” to working out a contract, and that Boston was “heavily” pursuing Turner. Michael Marino of Fantrax reported yesterday that Turner and the Sox were in talks. Turner is represented by Vayner Sports.
The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Dodgers are the other teams publicly known to have some interest in Turner, and Miami made Turner an offer earlier this week. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald described the Marlins’ offer as “competitive,” and though the exact details of the offer weren’t known, Heyman wrote that the Marlins seemed open to giving Turner the multi-year deal he is seeking in free agency.
Turner (who is entering his age-38 season) did find that multi-year pact, though at a significant drop in average annual value from the $17MM he received in his previous two-year deal with the Dodgers. MLBTR projected Turner for only one guaranteed year, but for $14MM. The year-to-year breakdown of the new contract isn’t yet known, and the opt-out could indicate that Turner’s camp might essentially view this deal as a one-year pact, with an eye towards getting a larger multi-year contract next after on the heels of a big platform year at Fenway Park.
That said, it isn’t as though Turner underachieved in 2022, as he posted a strong 123 wRC+ after batting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 plate appearances with the Dodgers. However, given how Turner’s usual offseason routine was thrown off-kilter was the lockout and the shortened Spring Training, he might well imagine that he could’ve hit much better had it not been for a very slow start. Turner had only a .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then caught fire with a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.
Despite this production and Turner’s long track record of success over nine seasons in Los Angeles, the Dodgers opted to decline their $16MM club option on Turner for 2023, instead buying him out for $2MM. The move was seemingly made to give the Dodgers some extra flexibility in regards to their payroll and luxury tax situation, as the Dodgers could conceivably use any of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, or prospect Miguel Vargas at third base. While president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman repeatedly stated that the door was still open for a possible reunion with Turner, the Dodgers’ signing of J.D. Martinez yesterday seemed to hint that L.A. had moved on.
As it turned out, the Dodgers and Red Sox will unofficially swap veteran hitters, with Martinez heading to Los Angeles and Turner coming to Boston. Turner brings more defensive utility than Martinez, as Turner still saw quite a bit of action at third base last season, basically splitting his time between third and DH. Rafael Devers of course has priority at the hot corner in Boston, but the Red Sox could now use Turner at third base when Devers (a subpar defender) is given a DH day of his own. Turner hasn’t played at first base since 2016, but he could also conceivably get some time at the cold corner as a right-handed hitting complement to rookie Triston Casas.
Xander Bogaerts‘ departure to the Padres has led to a lot of hard feelings from Red Sox Nation directed towards ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. Though Bogaerts is certainly a major loss, Bloom’s plan is to fill the void with multiple players, as Bloom has stated that he wanted to add roughly 7-9 new faces to the roster. That long list of needs has now been partially filled by Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez.
It would seem like starting pitching, catching, and the outfield remain on Bloom’s checklist, given the other players the Red Sox have at least checked in on this winter. But with Turner, the club reinforcements the corner infield/DH mix that Boston first looked to address by making a push for Jose Abreu, before Abreu signed with the Astros. The Red Sox made some room at first base by designing Eric Hosmer for assignment earlier this week, and though Hosmer was essentially a free player since the Padres were covering almost all of his remaining salary, the Sox were looking for either a more productive bat, or at least to more firmly clear a path for top prospect Casas.
After surpassing the luxury tax threshold in 2022, the Red Sox are thus far well under the $233MM threshold. That leaves Bloom with some opportunity to perhaps stay under the tax line, though given how Bloom and ownership were willing to pay the tax for even a rather remote shot at a playoff berth last year, one would imagine the Red Sox wouldn’t balk at paying another tax penalty for the right upside. Many of the offseason’s top free agents have already come off the board, but the Sox could still pursue other upgrades on the trade market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Red Sox Notes: Vázquez, Yoshida, Rafaela
Despite a mid-season trade from the Red Sox to the Astros, catcher Christian Vazquez remained interested in a potential Boston reunion, even going so far as to reach out to the club before agreeing to his deal with the Twins, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. However, Speier adds that the “Sox never showed any interest in bringing back” the veteran backstop.
Vazquez, who is tied for the fifth-most games caught in franchise history, was reportedly offered a one-year extension before Boston picked up his $7MM option for the 2022 season, but the extra year was at a lower average salary than the 2022-23 option. Vazquez subsequently declined the offer, and the two parties never discussed a new deal. This decision to bet on himself worked well for the catcher, who would go on to sign a three-year, $30MM deal with the Twins. Nevertheless, during his introductory press conference, Vazquez noted the difficulty in his free agent decision, saying that the Sox will “be in my heart forever” and that it “was tough to leave Boston.”
Barring an offseason catcher addition, the Red Sox are projected to rely on Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the dish. While the duo doesn’t have as successful of an offensive history as Vazquez, McGuire is a career .256/.301/.381 hitter and Wong has a .213/.290/.361 slash line in 70 plate appearances, McGuire hit .337/.377/.500 following a trade to the Red Sox and Wong has hit .276/.327/.471 in two seasons at the Triple-A level.
In other Red Sox news:
- The Red Sox were quick to pounce on Masataka Yoshida, agreeing to a record-setting five-year, $90MM contract with the Japanese outfielder shortly after he was posted. However, the organization had been reportedly scouting Yoshida for years, per VP of professional scouting Gus Quattlebaum. Quattlebaum cites Pacific Rim coordinator Brett Ward for bringing Yoshida to the Red Sox’s attention long before the NPB star was posted this offseason, telling reporters that “Wardy recognized this bat a long time ago for us, and cited him as one of the better pure hitters that he’d seen since Ichiro.” While comparing Yoshida to Ichiro Suzuki is high praise, the two produced similar batting lines during their time in Japan’s NPB with Yoshida slashing .326/.419/.539 over seven seasons and Ichiro hitting .353/.421/.522 over nine seasons.
- With the majority of MLBTR’s top free agents inking contracts, general manager Chaim Bloom will be forced to turn to the trade market to improve his team this offseason. While Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, and Triston Casas are considered untradeable, Tanner Houck, Ceddanne Rafaela, Bryan Mata, and Josh Winckowski have been floated as potential trade candidates. However, one National League team official believes that Rafaela is the least likely of the group to be moved, telling Speier that the Sox are “hugging him very tight.” Following a solid 2021 season at Single-A Salem, Rafaela broke out during the 2022 season. Across High-A and Double-A, the speedy utility man hit .299/.342/.539 with 21 home runs, 1o triples, and 32 doubles. The Red Sox’s No. 3 prospect, Rafaela is projected to make his debut during the 2023 season.
Red Sox Have Interest In J.D. Martinez Reunion
The Red Sox are among the teams showing interest in free agent designated hitter J.D. Martinez, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Martinez is a free agent after spending the past five seasons in Boston. The Red Sox opted not to offer him a qualifying offer at the end of the season.
The Red Sox don’t have a clear DH locked in for 2023, but there have been some concerns raised over the outfield defense of new signing Masataka Yoshida, and he has seemed like someone who could at least spend a decent chunk of time at the spot when he’s manning left-field. Martinez did not make a single outfield appearance in 2022, so bringing him back would be a vote of confidence in Yoshida’s ability to handle left on a day-to-day basis.
Martinez, 35, slashed .274/.341/.448 with 16 home runs over 596 plate appearances in 2022. While that was a bit of a drop from his best years, it was still good for a wRC+ of 119, or 19 percent better than league average. A year prior, Martinez hit .286/.349/.518 with 28 home runs and 43 doubles. While his strikeout and walk numbers remained steady between ’21 and ’22, his HardHit% dropped almost eight percentage points.
Originally developed by the Astros, Martinez spent three unsuccessful big league seasons in Houston before being released ahead of the 2014 season. He signed on with Detroit, and his career took off, as Martinez slashed a combined .300/.361/.551 with 99 home runs over three-and-a-half seasons with the Tigers. With the Tigers out of contention and Martinez in his walk year, they flipped him to the Diamondbacks at the 2017 deadline, and Martinez hit a staggering 29 home runs in 62 matches for Arizona, setting himself for a huge payday in free agency.
It was a lengthy free agency as Martinez batted away concerns over a foot injury the previous year, but in late February of 2018 Martinez signed with the Red Sox on a five-year, $110MM deal. Over the next five years in Boston, Martinez would mash 130 home runs and compile a .292/.363/.526 line. He’d also earn MVP votes in two of those seasons and go to the All Star game four times.
While Martinez’ career numbers speak for themselves, they have slowed down a touch as he’s aged, and his restriction to the DH spot makes his market hard to predict. Any number of teams, including the Red Sox, could do with a bat like Martinez’, but many teams prefer to keep the DH spot more open to cycle players through. As such, there’s not been a ton of reported interest in the veteran slugger. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $30MM for Martinez, and while the Red Sox are now the only team with reported interest, teams such as the Rays, Orioles, Twins, among others, could all have make sense as speculative fits.