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Red Sox Sign Justin Wilson

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The Red Sox announced they’ve added lefty reliever Justin Wilson on a one-year contract. Boston had an opening on the 40-man roster, which is now at capacity. Wilson, an ACES client, is reportedly guaranteed $2.25MM on a deal that offers another $750K in incentives. He’d earn $150K apiece for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances.

Wilson, 37, has a lengthy track record in the majors but has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year to pitch 46 2/3 innings for Cincinnati but was tagged for an unsightly 5.59 earned run average in that time. A good portion of those struggles were due to spikes in his average on balls in play and home run rate, the latter of which was directly influenced by the hitter-friendly nature of his home park in Cincinnati. Seven of the ten homers surrendered by Wilson last year came at Great American Ball Park, which has been far and away MLB’s most homer-friendly setting over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s Park Factors. (Boston’s Fenway Park is right in the middle of the pack at No. 16.)

Wilson’s run-prevention numbers were uninspiring, but his rate stats were far more encouraging. Both his 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate were better than league average. The 95.5 mph he averaged on his four-seamer was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 95.9 mph average in 2017. The 92.3 mph he averaged on his cutter was a career-high. Metrics like xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.41), which normalize a pitcher’s homer-to-flyball rate, both feel Wilson is a strong bet to rebound in 2025 if he can continue at his 2024 pace.

From 2015-20, Wilson was one of the most consistently effective lefties in the game. He appeared in 344 games between the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs and Mets during that span, totaling 291 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. His command looked far better than usual in his ’24 showing with the Reds, and his ability to miss bats didn’t seem overly compromised. The veteran Wilson is no stranger to late-inning work, having picked up 142 holds and 20 saves in his 12 major league seasons.

Entering the offseason, Brennan Bernardino was the only lefty reliever who could be comfortably projected for Boston’s 2025 bullpen. Fellow southpaws Bailey Horn, Cam Booser and Chris Murphy are on the 40-man roster as well. However, Murphy had Tommy John surgery last year and won’t be ready for Opening Day. Horn and Booser come with little to no big league experience of which to speak. Wilson will provide skipper Alex Cora with a seasoned veteran who’s still capable of missing bats and, if he can get back to pre-surgery levels of run prevention, could eventually emerge as a viable leverage option at a bargain price point.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report that Wilson and the Red Sox had an agreement. Rob Bradford of WEEI first reported it was a one-year major league deal with a $2.25MM base salary and $750K in incentives. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specific incentive structure.

Red Sox To Name Chris Holt Bullpen Coach

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Former Orioles pitching director Chris Holt has reached an agreement to become the Red Sox’ new bullpen coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Holt has already received a formal offer, and the hiring could become official next week, per Kubatko.

Holt departed Baltimore’s staff at the end of the season as the organization underwent a coaching overhaul in the wake of a limp to the finish line and a second consecutive quick postseason exit. He was one of several coaches/instructors to be replaced, joining hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte.

Baltimore general manager Mike Elias was familiar with Holt from the pair’s time together in the Astros organization. He hired Holt away as the Orioles’ new minor league pitching coordinator in 2019. Holt rose to the title of major league pitching coach and was eventually bumped up even further, being tasked with overseeing the entire organization’s pitching practice. Holt held those roles concurrently in an effort to form a cohesive top-down vision throughout the team’s big league staff and pitching development efforts.

Holt will join the Red Sox staff with a narrower focus in his responsibilities. He’ll join a revamped pitching practice in Boston that began when Craig Breslow, a former big league reliever who’s entering his second season as the team’s chief baseball officer, hired former Sox reliever Andrew Bailey away from the Giants to serve as the club’s new pitching coach. Holt will also work closely with another Breslow hire from last offseason: Red Sox director of pitching Justin Willard (the same role Holt held in Baltimore and that Breslow himself held with the Cubs before landing the top job in Boston).

Holt fills a role that was vacated when the Sox dismissed six coaches, including bullpen coach Kevin Walker, at season’s end. Walker had been in place since being hired by former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom back in 2020.

Red Sox Among Teams Showing Interest In Nathan Eovaldi

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Nathan Eovaldi returned to free agency when he declined a $20MM player option with the Rangers. Reports quickly tied him to the Braves, but Atlanta is one of a number of teams involved. Rob Bradford of WEEI tweets that Eovaldi’s camp has heard from roughly a dozen teams, the Red Sox among them.

Eovaldi spent five seasons with the Sox, totaling 461 2/3 innings of 4.05 ERA ball. He had a fantastic postseason in 2018 to help Boston win the World Series. Eovaldi returned on a $68MM free agent deal on the heels of the championship. He generally lived up to the contract, most notably finishing fourth in AL Cy Young balloting in 2021. Eovaldi departed after the ’22 season, declining a qualifying offer before accepting a two-year, $34MM guarantee with the Rangers.

That positioned the righty to win a second ring. Eovaldi made 25 starts with a 3.63 ERA as Texas won the World Series in 2023. The Rangers disappointed this year, though that wasn’t any fault of his. Eovaldi fired 170 2/3 innings across 29 starts, working to a 3.80 earned run average with solid peripherals. He punched out nearly 24% of batters faced while issuing free passes at just a 6% rate. His fastball still checked in around 95-96 MPH on average, while he picked up swinging strikes on an excellent 13% of his pitches.

There aren’t many better free agent starting pitchers in the short term. Eovaldi turns 35 in February. He’ll be limited to two or at most three years, but he’s well positioned to cash in on annual basis. The previous qualifying offer made him ineligible for one this time around. There’s no draft compensation weighing down his market. Eovaldi should land behind Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom are two years younger, among high-AAV starters available for relatively short terms.

Boston probably has some level of interest in all the top starters. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke at the GM Meetings about the need to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. Boston has solid depth with Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, a returning Lucas Giolito, and the likes of Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell. They’re awaiting word from Nick Pivetta on the $21.05MM qualifying offer, though he’s seemingly leaning against the QO as he looks for multiple years.

The Sox are among the most obvious fits for the Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried tier in free agency. Bradford suggests that the true top-of-the-market arms remain the Sox’s biggest focus, but Eovaldi represents one of the biggest available upgrades among the middle tier of free agents.

Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras

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7:54pm: There is currently no meeting scheduled between Soto and the Giants, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic.

11:10 am: The list of known teams who have upcoming meetings with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras continues to grow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that both the Blue Jays and Red Sox are set to meet with Soto and his representative this week. They’ll join Mets and Yankees in that regard. Passan adds that the Jays are “serious about adding a star” to the lineup alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Soto unsurprisingly tops their wishlist.

Similarly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman paints the Jays as a legitimate contender in the Soto bidding. Toronto was famously willing to put forth the same offer that the Dodgers did to lure Shohei Ohtani to Los Angeles last winter, and Heyman adds that the Jays tried to trade for Soto last winter as well before the Yankees ultimately acquired him from the Padres. Both reports peg Toronto as a motivated buyer on the heels of a disastrous 2024 season that saw them finish in the AL East cellar.

From a payroll vantage point, the Jays should have a clear path to making a compelling offer. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the only players the Blue Jays have signed beyond the 2026 season — the latter never earning more than $8MM annually. RosterResource projects Toronto’s 2025 payroll at around $197MM at the moment — a good ways shy of last year’s franchise-record $225MM Opening Day mark. That projected number could drop even further with several non-tender/trade candidates still on the roster (e.g. Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, Jordan Romano, Zach Pop). By 2026, the Blue Jays have under $75MM in guarantees on the books.

Toronto, of course, hopes to extend the aforementioned Guerrero and would need a massive offer to do so, but a long-term payroll ledger with Soto and Guerrero seems plenty doable given the lack of other commitments. Shortstop Bo Bichette could be another extension candidate, but he’s a tough case for a long-term deal after an injury-shortened season that included career-worst production at the plate. At the very least, it’s easy to see how the Blue Jays could make an aggressive push and competitive bid for Soto, as they did with Ohtani.

That’s generally true of the Red Sox as well, though their short-term books aren’t quite so clean. Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela are the only players signed truly long-term in Boston, but the Red Sox will still be paying Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story notable salaries through the 2027 season at least. That said, the Sox have a much smaller arbitration class and don’t have the specter of a superstar’s potential departure hanging over them, as the Jays do with Guerrero. They’re projected for a payroll around $136MM in 2025 (again, via RosterResource) — modest relative to their franchise-record spending levels.

That said, the Red Sox have curbed spending in recent seasons. They did open the 2022 season with a $206MM payroll but have otherwise spent in the $170-180MM range since 2020. Back in 2018, when they last won a World Series, the Sox opened the season at $233MM. They followed with a $236MM in 2019 (both figures via Cot’s). Signing Soto would require a willingness to return to those 2018-19 levels — if not exceed them — but there are some signals the organization is willing to do just that.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been vocal about his intention of “deliver[ing] the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” adding that the Sox need to be willing to be big players in the free agent and trade markets in order to do so. Skeptics will call back to chairman Tom Werner’s regrettable and oft-mocked “full throttle” comments from an offseason ago, but Breslow has taken a more direct and repeated stance on his intent to be active in both markets.

The Sox have multiple areas they’ll need to target, however, as Breslow has also voiced his intent to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. (They’ve also been linked to Max Fried, further lending credence to the idea that they’re willing to spend this winter.) Soto won’t accomplish that specific goal, nor will he help to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup (another of Breslow’s stated objectives), but that’s of little consequence. Free agents as young and impactful as Soto only come around every few decades; adding him to the lineup is an endeavor unique unto itself, and the rest of a team’s given goals can take a backseat to such a rare pursuit.

Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.

Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).

Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.

Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).

It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.

Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Breslow: Red Sox Looking To “Raise The Ceiling” In Rotation

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The Red Sox look to be one of the top suitors for impact starting pitching. As teams laid the groundwork for the offseason at this week’s GM Meetings, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested the Sox are evaluating ways to land a top-flight starter.

“We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation,” Breslow said (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). “I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”

The most straightforward solution is through free agency. Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell headline the rotation class. Max Fried and Jack Flaherty aren’t far behind. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea all project as mid-rotation arms and should be available on shorter-term deals based on their ages. Eovaldi is probably looking at a two-year pact with a lofty annual value, while Manaea and Kikuchi should get three or four years.

Snell and Burnes are the unquestioned aces. Fried is a little more of a borderline ace but he’d slot into the top two spots in any rotation. Flaherty has flashed ace-caliber ability, albeit with less consistency. They’d all project as the #1 starter in Boston. The Red Sox have a group of quality mid-rotation starters but don’t have a true #1 arm.

Tanner Houck is the closest thing to an ace among the internal options. He’s coming off an excellent year, turning in a 3.12 ERA through 30 starts. Houck’s profile is built more around huge ground-ball numbers than swinging strikes. Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford each took 30+ starts with earned run averages narrowly below 4.50. They fit into the middle of a rotation. So does Lucas Giolito, who’ll be back after missing all of 2024 due to elbow surgery. Giolito has performed like a #2 starter at his best, but home run issues led him to post an ERA approaching 5.00 in both 2022 and ’23.

The Sox are awaiting word from Nick Pivetta on whether he’ll return. Boston somewhat surprisingly tagged Pivetta with a $21.05MM qualifying offer. The right-hander has until November 19 to decide whether to accept. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that while Pivetta is weighing the QO, he has found a nice market in free agency’s opening days.) As with the rest of the Sox’s in-house options, he projects as more of a third or fourth starter. Pivetta has the strikeout and walk profile of a top-end arm, but he has been very susceptible to the longball over his career. He has been a durable source of innings but doesn’t have a single sub-4.00 ERA showing on his résumé.

Boston has a few interesting depth arms beyond that. Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts performed well when called upon. Garrett Whitlock could be back from UCL surgery in the second half, though his injury history could point to a return to the bullpen. Quinn Priester is a former top prospect who hasn’t put things together at the MLB level.

The Red Sox have good rotation depth, especially if Pivetta accepts the QO. There’s certainly value in not giving starts to sub-replacement level pitchers. The Sox are well positioned to do that, but it’d be difficult to compete for an AL East title without having a legitimate #1 starter.

Boston should have the payroll capacity to make a run at one of the top starters. They also have the high-end prospect capital to push for any trade candidates. Garrett Crochet could be the prize of the rotation trade market. He flashed ace upside in his first season as a starting pitcher. The White Sox are likely to move him this offseason. Chicago GM Chris Getz said they’ll target position player help in trade returns.

Boston has four hitters who landed among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects. A trade involving top 10 talents Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer would be a shock, but catcher Kyle Teel or breakout infielder Kristian Campbell could center a return for a high-end starter. Boston could also deal lefty-hitting outfielder Wilyer Abreu for pitching help if they’re confident Anthony will be a productive MLB player next year.

There’s been some speculation about the Sox moving young first baseman Triston Casas as well, but Breslow shot that notion down this week. “I’m not sure where that’s coming from,” Boston’s front office leader said (X link via Christopher Smith of MassLive). “Casas is a guy that we think has 40-home run potential. He’s young and also has a great strike zone discipline and controls an at-bat. We’re excited he’s on our team.”

In addition to the rotation pursuit, Boston needs to land bullpen help. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each hit free agency. While a Martin return is possible, Jansen is almost certainly signing elsewhere. Liam Hendriks should be back from Tommy John surgery and could pitch in the ninth inning behind Rule 5 breakout Justin Slaten. There’s room for another leverage arm, especially one who throws left-handed.

Breslow acknowledged that the Red Sox are looking for lefty bullpen help to add a late-inning arm alongside Cam Booser and Brennan Bernardino (Smith link). Breslow also spoke generally about wanting to add velocity and a swing-and-miss element to the relief group. Boston relievers ranked 23rd in strikeout rate and 26th in swinging strike percentage this year. Free agency’s top reliever, Tanner Scott, is a lefty who throws in the upper 90s and misses bats in bunches. He’s well above the rest of the left-handed class, so he could command a four-year deal that exceeds $50MM.

Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers Interested In Teoscar Hernández

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Free agent Teoscar Hernández just won a World Series and is now drawing interest in the early days of the offseason. The Red Sox and Orioles are interested in the outfielder, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network on X. The Dodgers and Hernández also have mutual interest in a reunion, per Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports.

Hernández, 32, was a free agent a year ago and received interest from the Red Sox at that time. Chris Cotillo of MassLive (X link) reported that the Sox offered him $28MM over a two-year deal, numbers that were later confirmed by the player himself when speaking to Rob Bradford of WEEI and the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast.

He turned down that offer and instead took a slightly smaller guarantee on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. That deal paid him $23.5MM with some deferrals, but perhaps most importantly, allowed him to return to free agency after hopefully having a bounceback year.

That bet on himself looks like it will pay off well. From 2020 to 2022, he slashed .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays, production that led to a 132 wRC+. His defense wasn’t great but he did steal 24 bases in that stretch and the offense was undeniable. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2023 and had a down year at the plate, hitting .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. With that weak platform year, his free agent market was fairly tepid, including the aforementioned offer from Boston.

But his year with Los Angeles could hardly have gone much better, as he hit .272/.339/.501 for a 134 wRC+, right back to his previous form. His defensive metrics still weren’t great but he swiped another 12 bags. He got into 16 playoff games and hit .250/.352/.417 for a 119 wRC+. On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, we predicted that he could secure a three-year, $60MM deal this time around.

Whether he can get that deal or not, the Sox would almost certainly have to increase their offer from a year ago. If they are willing to do so, his right-handed swing would fit well on a roster with plenty of left-handed bats. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu all hit from the left side, as do prospects Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony.

Last year, the Sox complemented their lefty outfielders by having Tyler O’Neill, who had a good season in a specific way. He was injured a few times, struck out a bunch and did most of his damage against lefties, but still had a strong season overall. He hit 31 home runs in 113 games for a .241/.336/.511 slash line and 131 wRC+, all that despite a 33.6% strikeout rate and a meager 91 wRC+ against righties.

Hernández should be ranked a bit above O’Neill as he has a slight edge in most of those areas. His 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024 was high but not as bad as O’Neill’s. He does have platoon splits, though not to the same extent as O’Neill. Hernández has a 140/113 wRC+ split in his career and was at 154/126 in 2024. He’s also far more durable, having played at least 125 games in each of the past six full seasons, whereas O’Neill has only hit that number once in his career.

Either could work as the needed righty for Boston. Hernández would arguably be better but would also likely cost more. O’Neill was predicted by MLBTR for a three-year deal just like Hernández but with a lesser guarantee of $42MM. However, Hernández received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and is therefore tied to draft pick forfeiture, whereas O’Neill is not. Per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe on X, the Sox remain engaged with O’Neill’s camp and could potentially bring him back.

Either should fit in the club’s budget. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $136MM right now, more than $50MM below where they were in 2024. They’re about $70MM below the competitive balance tax line. They have needs on the pitching staff but could certainly spend on an outfielder if they want.

For the Orioles, they are a logical fit for similar reasons. Their lineup features lefties Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday. Prospects Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are also lefty swingers. Their outfield just lost switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander to free agency, so Hernández could slot in as Santander’s replacement if the O’s don’t re-sign him.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias recently identified a right-handed hitting outfielder as an offseason target, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. The big question is how much spending capacity the club will have this winter. In the past six years, they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal, with Craig Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee on a one-year pact their largest expenditure.

For much of that time, they were rebuilding and then the club was up for sale. David Rubenstein took over ownership officially just as the 2024 season was getting started. It has been expected that the club will get a bit more aggressive and their trade deadline behavior gave some encouraging signs in that regard. They took on notable money to acquire Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez, but it’s still unknown exactly how far they plan to go this winter.

“Whether it’s free-agent spending or it’s support for my staff or the baseball organization, I think we have everything that we need financially to make the optimal decisions for the long-term health of the franchise. And a lot of that’s going to be in my judgment,” Elias said this week. “But certainly, if we have something that we want to do and we need financial support for it, I’m exceedingly confident that that’s going to be there.”

Returning to the Dodgers is also easy to see, especially with the club planning to move Mookie Betts back to the infield next year. That means the projected outfield currently consists of Andy Pages, James Outman and utility guys like Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor. While the Dodgers could easily fit Hernández in there, they will probably first see how things play out with their reported interest in Juan Soto.

Rays Among Teams To Have Reached Out To Soto

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The Rays are among the teams that have reached out to Juan Soto’s camp since the opening of free agency last week, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman lists a much less surprising additional six teams that have shown interest: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

The mere mention of the Rays as a possible Soto suitor is going to be met with plenty of skepticism. It’d be a shock if they made a legitimate push for the market’s top free agent. The Rays have tried to land an elite free agent at least once before, as they reportedly made an offer in the $150MM range to Freddie Freeman before he signed with the Dodgers. That wasn’t too far off the price Freeman ultimately landed, but any offers to Soto would be in a different stratosphere. He should handily top $500MM and could secure a contract between $600MM and $700MM.

While it’s fair to assume the Rays themselves aren’t optimistic about their chances, this is illustrative that they have some money to at least dabble in the middle of free agency. The Rays opened this past season with a payroll around $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve got a little less than $40MM in guaranteed commitments for next year (assuming Wander Franco remains on the restricted list and is not paid). Their arbitration class is projected around $25MM, though they could knock that to the $15MM range with a few non-tenders. Trades of Brandon Lowe or Yandy Díaz would subtract another $10.5MM or $10MM, respectively.

None of that is to say they should be perceived as a realistic threat to the big-market teams on Soto. They’ll probably be more active in free agency than many fans might expect given their general spending habits, though. Another mid-tier strike akin to the $40MM Zach Eflin deal from two offseasons ago could be on the table. Any free agent pursuits are complicated by their uncertain stadium situation after Tropicana Field was severely damaged by Hurricane Milton.

The other teams known to have some interest in Soto are all expected. The Yankees and Mets are widely perceived as the favorites. The Dodgers are at least tied to virtually every free agent of note. The news that Mookie Betts is likely moving back to the middle infield is going to fuel speculation about L.A. making a run at Soto. Giants baseball operations president Buster Posey has spoken about wanting to land a star. The Blue Jays were in the running for Shohei Ohtani last winter. The Red Sox have indicated they could be more active in free agency than they’ve been over the past few winters, although a splash in the rotation market seems much likelier than them landing Soto.

The New York Post reported last week that 11 teams had been in contact with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation on the first day of the offseason. That leaves at least four unknown clubs, though Heyman casts some doubt on the Nationals and Cubs as possibilities. Heyman suggests that Washington is unlikely to spend at the level necessary to bring Soto back. He writes that Chicago’s offseason plans are more geared towards pitching at the moment.

Soto’s free agency should carry for multiple weeks. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this afternoon that the four-time All-Star plans to have an in-person meeting with the ownership group of each team making a serious pursuit.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

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