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Luis Avilan Retires

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Reliever Luis Avilán has retired, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The Venezuela native pitched in parts of 10 big league seasons with seven teams.

Avilán began his career as an amateur signee with the Braves. He debuted with Atlanta in 2012 and pitched his first three-plus seasons there. Avilán allowed 2.00 earned runs per nine in 36 innings as a rookie and turned in his career season in the second year. He posted a 1.52 ERA through a personal-high 65 frames in 2013 and tacked on 2 2/3 scoreless in the postseason.

After another year and a half in the Atlanta bullpen, Avilán was moved to the Dodgers in a massive 13-player, three-team 2015 deadline deal that also sent Alex Wood to Los Angeles. Avilán spent two and a half years in Southern California. He saw postseason action in both 2015 and ’16 before pitching to a 2.93 ERA over 46 regular season innings in 2017.

Going into the following season, Avilán was involved in another three-team deal. This one — orchestrated between the White Sox, Dodgers and Royals — landed him in Chicago. He’d pitch for five teams over the next four seasons, suiting up with the White Sox, Phillies, both New York franchises and Nationals. His 2021 campaign with Washington was cut short after four outings by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.

That ultimately brought his major league career to an end. Avilán re-signed with the Nats on a minor league deal last year, spending the bulk of the season in Triple-A. He was out of professional baseball entirely this past season and, at age 34, has decided to step away.

Avilán concludes with a 3.43 ERA in 354 major league innings. He recorded 319 strikeouts and kept the ball on the ground for just under half the batted balls he allowed. A situational lefty, he collected 85 holds while limiting same-handed batters to a .204/.279/.281 slash line through nearly 700 plate appearances. MLBTR congratulates Avilán on a decade-long run in the majors and sends our best wishes in his post-playing days.

Braves Promote Ronit Shah To Scouting Director

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  • Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, the Braves have officially promoted Ronit Shah to the role of scouting director. Shah was already running the club’s scouting department in 2023 after previously serving as assistant scouting director under Dana Brown, who departed the organization last offseason to take over as GM of the Astros. Atlanta’s scouting operation has seen great successes in recent years, including last year’s breakout performances by rookies Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II. The pair were drafted in the fourth and third rounds of the 2020 and 2019 drafts, respectively.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLB’s best regular season team, the Braves were knocked out by the Phillies in a disappointing Division Series. They’ll bring back the majority of the roster to give things another go in 2024, although they could have a few changes outside the core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $197MM through 2032 (deal includes ’33 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $132MM through 2029
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $74MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $69MM through 2028 (deal includes ’29 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $67MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option; deal includes ’32 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $61MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option; deal includes ’28 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $32MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $19MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $18MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $5MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
  • Tyler Matzek, LHP: $1.9MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $130.65MM
Total future commitments: $686.65MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Soroka, Lopez, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, Tonkin, Velazquez, Ynoa

Free Agents

For the second straight year, a Braves team that won 100+ games was vanquished by the Phillies in a four-game Division Series. While surely a frustrating endpoint for the organization and its fanbase, they’ll have another crack with the same key group of players that comprised this year’s most dominant regular season team.

In each of the past two winters, the Braves had a marquee impending free agent. There’s no one close to the level of Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson this winter, though they’re now just a year away from the potential departure of star southpaw Max Fried.

The most notable potential free agents among this year’s class fall into one of two categories: veterans whose contracts contain a club option or non-closing relievers. Charlie Morton is the biggest name in the former group. The Braves hold a $20MM option on the righty, who worked to a 3.64 ERA across 30 starts.

Morton turns 40 next month and has been noncommittal about his future for a few seasons. He’s clearly comfortable in Atlanta, signing successive one-year contracts going back to 2021. Morton has been reasonably effective that entire time, combining for a 3.77 ERA while taking the ball for 94 starts.

This past season didn’t end as Morton envisioned. He carried a 3.29 ERA into the final month but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in September. A minor injury to the index finger on his throwing hand ended his season, although he likely could’ve made it back had the Braves gotten to the NLCS.

The down finish might make the Braves reluctant to commit a $20MM salary. Even if Atlanta balks at that asking price, it stands to reason the sides would have interest in a slightly lesser figure if Morton wants to continue playing. Perhaps negotiating a new deal in the $15MM range could be mutually agreeable.

If Morton retires or signs elsewhere, Atlanta’s rotation depth would become a real question. Spencer Strider and Fried are an elite 1-2 combination. It tails off quickly. While Bryce Elder had a solid rookie season overall, the risk of his pitch-to-contact approach was demonstrated with a 5.11 ERA in the second half. Kyle Wright underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa could return from Tommy John rehabs in the season’s first half; both right-handers had struggled before going under the knife. Allan Winans and Darius Vines seem better suited for depth roles.

Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd landed season-opening rotation spots this year. Both were hit hard and quickly lost their starting jobs. Michael Soroka pitched well in Triple-A but was tagged for a 6.40 ERA in seven big league appearances. His season ended in early September due to forearm inflammation. With a projected $3MM arbitration salary and enough service time that he can no longer be optioned to the minor leagues without his consent, he may not be tendered a contract. Late-season waiver claim Yonny Chirinos and trade returnee Kolby Allard could be non-tendered as well.

Among the in-house options, 20-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver is the most intriguing. He struck out over 31% of minor league opponents and earned his first major league call in May. He had an unspectacular 20:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six MLB contests. That shouldn’t stake a firm claim to a rotation spot, but the Braves had sufficient faith to carry him on their playoff roster. Atlanta is aggressive enough in promoting young players that they could give Smith-Shawver a look early in the year.

That may also be true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep. The Florida product made it as high as Triple-A Gwinnett in his draft year. He fanned a third of opponents with a 1.53 ERA in his first eight professional starts. In many organizations, Waldrep would’ve closed out the season in the low minors. The Braves move their top talents quickly, and while both Smith-Shawver and Waldrep presently have below-average control, they have strong enough arsenals that they could get on the radar.

Even if the Braves are confident in Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep factoring in early in the season, they’ll need to bring in starting pitching. Atlanta has shied away from free agency in recent years, preferring to make their big strikes via trade and subsequent contract extensions.

The aren’t a ton of clear rotation trade targets. There’d been speculation about the Brewers trading one of Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. With Woodruff potentially missing all of next season following shoulder surgery, he’s no longer a possibility. That might take Burnes off the table as well, since Milwaukee would take a major step back if they lose both of their top starters. The Guardians could move Shane Bieber, who’s projected for a $12.2MM salary in his final year of club control and missed most of the second half with forearm inflammation.

Teams will inquire with the White Sox about Dylan Cease, though it’s unclear if Chicago has the appetite for that kind of move. It’s a similar story with the Rays and Tyler Glasnow. Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill are potential targets among arbitration-eligible starters.

If the Braves can’t line up a trade, they should have room to go into free agency. They have just under $131MM committed to next year’s roster. The arbitration class should tack on around $25MM pending non-tenders. Exercising Morton’s option or negotiating a slightly lower salary could bring their expenditures to the $170-175MM range.

Atlanta carried an Opening Day payroll just above $203MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’d leave around $25-30MM in spending room if they’re willing to repeat that level. It’s a similar story regarding the luxury tax threshold. The Braves exceeded the base threshold this year. Should they go past next year’s threshold — which begins at $237MM — they’d pay escalating penalties as a repeat payor.

Atlanta’s current CBT estimate sits somewhere in the $190-200MM range. (It’s higher than the actual payroll figure because the CBT calculation includes player benefits and is based off contracts’ average annual values.) The option price or a new deal for Morton could leave them between $20-30MM shy of the base threshold to begin the offseason. There’s nothing to suggest the $237MM CBT number represents a hard barrier for the organization, but it’ll likely be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

A strike for Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t the Braves’ typical operating procedure. Going into the middle tier of the market for someone like Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha should be viable. If Morton doesn’t return, that’d leave more payroll room if they wanted to make a run at Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez.

The front office figures to engage Fried’s camp in extension talks. The 2022 Cy Young runner-up is projected for a salary around $14.4MM in his final season of arbitration. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Fried should top the six-year, $162MM guarantee that Carlos Rodón received last winter. The contract that Snell lands this offseason could set a new standard for Fried’s camp. The Braves have been the league’s most aggressive team in signing key players to extensions. The Freeman and Swanson scenarios demonstrate they’re not keen to throw top-of-the-market money at all their players, though.

Atlanta also figures to go into free agency for relief help. Joe Jiménez and deadline pickup Pierce Johnson are both headed to free agency. Jiménez had an excellent season and could find a three-year deal. The Braves never entrusted him with high-leverage work, so they seem unlikely to match that kind of commitment. Johnson was utterly dominant after coming off from the Rockies. Retaining him on a two-year pact could be viable.

The Braves could also re-sign Jesse Chavez, who consistently provides them with quality low-leverage innings on salaries barely above the league minimum. They have a pair of option decisions on Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. The former is likely to be bought out after his strikeout rate plummeted this past season. They could retain Yates, who still has huge strikeout stuff, for an extra $4.5MM after accounting for the option buyout. Atlanta will decline its end of a $7MM mutual option on Brad Hand.

Raisel Iglesias is under contract for another two seasons as the closer. A.J. Minter is a high-leverage lefty. Tyler Matzek should be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2022 postseason. Yates, Nick Anderson and long man Michael Tonkin could all be retained. Rookie Daysbel Hernández made the playoff roster and offers a high-strikeout, high-walk option.

Even if they can re-sign Johnson, the Braves should add one or two arms to the late innings. A nine-figure strike for Josh Hader seems unlikely, but anyone else in the class could fit. Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López are among the higher-upside arms in the free agent group. Trade possibilities include Scott Barlow and Kyle Finnegan.

The lone option decision on the position player side is a $9MM provision for Eddie Rosario. It’s a borderline price for the streaky left fielder, who had a .255/.305/.450 showing with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances this year. While his overall production was average, Rosario’s in-season performance was extremely volatile. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in June, excellent in August, and well below-average in every other month.

If the Braves move on, Tommy Pham, Michael Conforto (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and Mark Canha (pending a club option with Milwaukee) could be free agent targets. Alex Verdugo and Ramón Laureano could be on the trade market.

Aside from the Rosario decision, the starting lineup is in place. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. will hold the other outfield spots. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley are locked in around the infield. Marcell Ozuna mashed from May onwards and silenced early-season speculation about his future at designated hitter. Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud make for an excellent catching tandem, Murphy’s late-season offensive swoon notwithstanding.

No one would’ve pegged the Braves as a suitor for Murphy going into last winter, so a trade to add to the lineup can’t be entirely ruled out. Acquiring a notable starting pitcher feels more likely given the offense’s strength, however. Should they try to bring in a starter with multiple seasons of club control — thereby providing some cover if Fried walks next offseason — they could dangle middle infielder Vaughn Grissom.

Arcia’s emergence at shortstop kept Grissom mostly in Triple-A this year (although he did make the playoff roster and was improbably called off the bench to take their final at-bat against Matt Strahm). He had an excellent year in Gwinnett, hitting .330/.419/.501 with a 12% walk rate while striking out just 14.1% of the time. The biggest question is where he best fits defensively.

There’s no room for him on the Atlanta infield. The Braves could get Grissom some outfield work as a possible Rosario replacement. If another team feels the 22-year-old (23 in January) projects as a big league ready shortstop or second baseman, he might be more valuable to the Braves as a trade chip. The Mariners (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long) have questions at one or both middle infield spots and could dangle a controllable starter who has shown promise at the major league level. That kind of young player swap is rare but can’t be ruled out, particularly with teams having very little opportunity to add middle infield talent in free agency.

As tends to be the case for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, there’s the potential for a notable move or two. Yet the broad theme of the winter should again be continuity. Brian Snitker will be back for an eighth full season as manager. The most important players are all under contract, with everyone aside from Fried signed for multiple years. The Braves should be a top five team in 2024. Whether that results in a commensurate playoff run won’t be known until October.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 10-18-23. Click here to view the transcript.

21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Why The Braves Figure To Pursue Bullpen Velocity

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  • Some flame-throwing relief help figures to be a target for the Braves this winter, as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that only two bullpens in baseball threw fewer pitches of 96mph or higher than the Braves did in 2023.  Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson contributed a big chunk of the high-velocity pitches Atlanta did throw, yet both relievers will be free agents.  With Jesse Chavez also a free agent and Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, and Brad Hand all on club or mutual options, “the situation allows the Braves to rebuild their bullpen, if they want,” Toscano writes.  Rookie Daysbel Hernandez could be an option on the high-velo front, as Atlanta thought enough of Hernandez’s potential to include him on their ALDS roster even though injury limited the righty to 3 2/3 innings in his first MLB season.

Michael Harris II Has Built On His Rookie Of The Year Campaign

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The breakout performance of center fielder Michael Harris II was one of the most exciting storylines for the Braves last season. The 21-year-old rookie was called up to the big leagues at the end of May in 2022 and never looked back, slashing a fantastic .297/.339/.514 in 441 trips to the plate while swiping 20 bases and playing excellent defense in center field. That performance earned him NL Rookie of the Year honors in addition to a few downballot MVP votes, despite the youngster only appearing in 114 games that season.

The Braves saw enough in Harris’s performance to ink the youngster to an eight-year, $72MM extension before his rookie season had even come to a close, and it’s easy to see why. After all, Harris’ 134 wRC+ ranked in the top-25 among all major league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, and his defense in center field was nothing short of superlative. Only Victor Robles, Myles Straw, and Michael A. Taylor outperformed Harris’s +8 Defensive Runs Saved last year among center fielders, while his +7 Outs Above Average left Harris tied with Cody Bellinger and Alek Thomas for sixth-most among center fielders with at least 250 attempts last year.

That being said, there were potential red flags in Harris’s profile last season that made it fair to wonder if he could replicate his excellent offensive season going forward. Of those, the biggest one was perhaps his strikeout rate. Of the 36 players who posted a wRC+ higher than 130 last season (min. 400 PA), just three of them struck out more often than Harris’s 24.3% rate: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez. Harris, who hit 19 home runs in 2022 and posted an ISO of just .217, did not have the titanic power of that aforementioned trio with which to make up for his swing and miss tendencies. In addition, Harris’s 4.8% walk rate was by far the lowest of the bunch. In fact, Harris actually ranked in just the 11th percentile in all of baseball last year in terms of walk rate, per Statcast.

It’s easy to see why Harris was striking out so much. Harris swung at a whopping 41.7% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone while making contact on just 59.7% of those swings. Only Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, and Michael Chavis swung and missed at more pitches outside of the zone last year. Harris’s free-swinging approach isn’t helped by pitches in the zone much, either. The youngster posted a roughly average 67.9% swing rate on pitches inside the zone, and his 86.2% contact rate on pitches in the zone was actually slightly below league average last year. Between Harris’s reckless swing decisions and middling power numbers, it was easy to see how he could regress significantly headed into 2023. Advanced metrics agreed with that assessment, as Harris’s .368 wOBA noticeably outstripped his .335 xwOBA in 2022.

Early in the 2023 campaign, it appeared that Harris was indeed destined for a serious sophomore slump. After missing most of April due to a back injury, Harris looked brutal at the plate through the beginning of June. In his first 138 plate appearances of the season, Harris posted a brutal .163/.246/.244 slash line with a 25.4% strikeout rate and just two home runs. That being said, he was still playing his typical excellent defense and had an uncharacteristically low .207 BABIP. That was enough for the Braves to stick with their struggling youngster despite his abysmal start with the bat.

The club’s patience paid off, as Harris hit a phenomenal .335/.360/.552 the rest of the way. That impressive slash line is good for a 142 wRC+, the sixteenth-best figure in the majors over that span and on par with the likes of Bellinger and Bryce Harper. Perhaps most exciting is Harris’s improvement in terms of strikeout rate, as he punched out in just 16.5% of his plate appearances during that 100-game stretch. While Harris continued to swing too often- his 42.3% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was ninth-highest in the majors, even during that torrid stretch- he made far more contact on those swings. Harris made contact on a whopping 69.8% of swings on pitches outside the strike zone while posting a 89.1% contact rate on pitches in the zone.

Taken together, Harris’s improvements in contact rate allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 18.7% on the year good for the 71st percentile among qualified hitters. Though his cold stretch to open the year left his overall season numbers to fall short of his rookie season, as he posted a wRC+ of just 115 on the year, Harris’s peripherals in 2023 are a far better match for his production, indicating he should be able to sustain this level of offensive production going forward. In fact, Harris’s .345 wOBA in 2023 is actually ten points lower than his .355 xwOBA, indicating there could even be a small amount of positive regression in Harris’s future, if he’s able to build on his improved contact rates in 2024.

Latest On Tyler Matzek

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  • Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but David O’Brien of The Athletic relayed that the southpaw should be ready to go for Spring Training in February, according to president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous. Matzek, who is under contract for 2024 with a 2025 club option, was a first-round pick by the Rockies back in 2009, debuted with Colorado as a starting pitcher in 2014 but pitched just 63 2/3 innings in affiliated ball from 2015-2019. He returned to the majors with the Braves in 2020 as a reliever and hasn’t looked back since, with a 2.92 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work with Atlanta. He figures to feature prominently in the club’s late-inning mix next year alongside closer Raisel Iglesias and fellow southpaw A.J. Minter.

Alex Anthopoulous Discusses Upcoming Braves Offseason

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After posting an MLB-best 104-58 record during the regular season this year, the Braves were once again vanquished in four games by the Phillies during the NLDS. With the club’s 2023 campaign now officially in the rearview, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous conducted Atlanta’s end-of-season press conference yesterday. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and David O’Brien of The Athletic were among those to relay Anthopoulous’s comments during the presser.

One item Anthopoulous quickly addressed was that of the manager’s seat. The club’s GM quickly made clear that manager Brian Snitker would return to helm the team from the dugout in 2024. The move is hardly a surprise, even as the club found itself exiting the playoffs after just one series for the second year in a row. After all, the Braves have won a combined 205 games the past two seasons, won the World Series in 2021 under Snitker’s leadership, and extended the soon to be 68-year-old with a contract that runs through the 2025 campaign back in January. Since Snitker took over the manager’s chair in Atlanta back in 2016, the club has posted a 646-509 record under his guidance while making the postseason in six consecutive seasons.

Another topic of discussion was the starting rotation. Righties Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and lefty Max Fried all figure to return to the club’s rotation in 2024, though Kyle Wright will miss next season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That leaves two spots in the rotation to be filled out, though the club holds a $20MM club option on the services of veteran righty Charlie Morton for next year, which could round out the rotation. Anthopoulous spoke positively of Morton during the presser, noting that his addition ahead of the 2021 season have the club a “frontline starter” for their World Series run. Morton will turn 40 next month, and Bowman suggests that the club could look to work out a different contract with the righty even if they ultimately turn down his option for next season.

Speaking of the rotation more generally, Anthopoulous wouldn’t get into specific offseason plans but acknowledged the club’s struggles with injuries in that area of the roster this season. Morton missed the NLDS this year with an index finger issue, while Fried and Wright followed up excellent seasons in 2022 by combining to make just 21 regular season starts this year as both battled injuries throughout much of the season. Though Morton, Elder, and Strider each made thirty start or more, the absences at the front of the rotation forced the club to rely on depth options like Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Michael Soroka to cover the club’s last two rotation spots.

16 pitchers ultimately drew starts for Atlanta this season, with the aforementioned quartet combining for 6.10 ERA in 144 2/3 innings of work across 29 starts. Though it’s certainly feasible one of the club’s young arms could take a step forward in 2024, it seems reasonable to expect the Braves to consider potential rotation upgrades this offseason regardless of whether or not Morton remains in the fold for next season. The upcoming class of free agents figures to be flush with mid-rotation or better arms, giving Atlanta plenty of options if they do seek an addition to their current mix of starters.

Looking toward the club’s position player corps, there figures to be little in the way of change this coming offseason. The club’s entire infield mix is locked up for the 2024 campaign and beyond except for utility player Nicky Lopez, who is controlled via arbitration for two more seasons. In the outfield, each of Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, and Ronald Acuna Jr. are under contract for 2024, though Kevin Pillar is a pending free agent and the club holds a $9MM club option on left fielder Eddie Rosario, which seems likely to be declined after he slashed just .240/.289/.408 in 786 trips to the plate the last two seasons.

With Pillar and Rosario both potentially headed to the open market, the club could have a hole to fill in left field next season. The crop of free agent corner outfielders this offseason is headlined by Teoscar Hernandez, though former Braves Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, and Jorge Soler could all be available as well. One other option for the club’s left field mix could be youngster Vaughn Grissom, who spent much of the season at the Triple-A level after losing out on the starting shortstop job to Orlando Arcia.

Though Grissom hit just .280/.313/.347 in 80 trips to the plate with the big league club this year, Anthopoulous spoke glowingly of the 22-year-old, referencing his strong slash line of .330/.419/.501 in 102 Triple-A games this year. Grissom played exclusively up the middle in the minor leagues this year, mostly playing shortstop with occasional reps at second base. That being said, the youngster has previous experience at third base and could see time in a utility role next year, per Anthopolous. Though he hasn’t played the position previously in his career, it’s at least conceivable such a role could include time in left field. After all, Austin Riley appeared in the outfield just nine times during his minor league career, but wound up getting occasional reps at both outfield corners early in his big league career before ultimately settling in at third base.

Giants, Athletics Discussed Offseason Trade Involving Sean Murphy, Marco Luciano

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The Giants and Athletics usually don’t combine for many trades, but the two Bay Area rivals got deep into talks about a possible blockbuster last winter, according to Tim Kawakami and Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.  Kawakami reported back in July that the two teams “apparently were closing in on a deal” that would’ve involved Sean Murphy heading to the Giants, and star shortstop prospect Marco Luciano going to the A’s.  In a piece today, Baggarly reports that San Francisco was willing to move Luciano, but talks fell apart when the Athletics asked for pitching prospect Kyle Harrison as part of the deal.

The specifics of the trade proposal or any other players involved isn’t known, nor is it known if the A’s wanted Harrison instead of Luciano as the centerpiece of a trade package, or wanted both Harrison and Luciano in the deal.  The former scenario seems likelier, as the Giants probably would’ve walked away a lot earlier had Oakland demanded both of San Francisco’s top prospects.

Oakland instead dealt Murphy as part of one of the offseason’s biggest trades — a three-team, nine-player deal between the A’s, Braves, and Brewers that saw Murphy go to Atlanta and William Contreras to Milwaukee.  Murphy lived up to expectations in his first year in Atlanta, making the All-Star team and hitting .251/.365/.478 with 21 homers over 438 plate appearances.  The Brewers were also big winners in the trade, since not only did Contreras shine offensively while making big strides with his glovework, reliever Joel Payamps suddenly emerged as a top-tier setup man.  The A’s bought some new young talent on board in their latest rebuild, most prominently the addition of American League stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz.

Beyond the incredible speed, however, Ruiz’s overall offensive profile is still a little shaky, making him less than a true cornerstone piece for the Athletics.  Some criticism has been leveled at the A’s front office for their returns on the trades of Murphy, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and others during this latest fire sale, with the most common argument being that the Athletics seemed to aim for quantity over true top-drawer quality.  Though we don’t know the exact nature of the deal the A’s and Giants were proposing, the inclusion of Luciano (or Harrison) would’ve brought one clear-cut top prospect to Oakland’s organization.

The three-team trade had such an immediate impact on the 2023 season that it would’ve created quite the ripple effect had Murphy instead ended up in San Francisco.  It can be argued that the Brewers might not have won the NL Central without Contreras carrying an otherwise shaky lineup, or without Payamps combining with closer Devin Williams to form a lockdown combo at the end of games.  Without those pieces in place, maybe the door is open for the Cubs or Reds to win the NL Central instead.

The Braves’ stacked lineup perhaps might not have missed a beat with Contreras instead of Murphy behind the plate, and Atlanta’s pursuit of Murphy was considered something of a surprise whatsoever since Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud were already in the fold.  That said, the Braves obviously felt they were getting an upgrade over the long term, considering they liked Murphy enough to almost immediately sign him to a six-year extension soon after the trade.  Such an extension might not have been on the table for Contreras.  While the Braves have a penchant for locking up their players, the fact that they dealt Contreras indicates some level of reservation, even if it might’ve been ultimately more a case of Atlanta particularly liking Murphy more than “disliking” Contreras, per se.

By that same dint, the Giants’ apparent willingness to move Luciano shouldn’t be an indication that the Giants are somehow down on the young shortstop.  In fact, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is heading into 2024 aiming to give Luciano at least “the chance“ to be the starting shortstop, underlining the 22-year-old Luciano’s importance to the organization as a building block.  Pundits have considered Luciano has been regarded as at least a top-37 prospect in each of the last four seasons, and he only just made his MLB debut this season, making 45 plate appearances in 14 games.

Dealing away a blue chip prospect like Luciano likely wouldn’t have been a possibility for the Giants at all if a unique trade opportunity (i.e. a controllable high-level catcher like Murphy) hadn’t been available.  The exact timing of the talks with the Athletics were also probably a factor, as the Giants might’ve been more willing to move Luciano if they’d thought Carlos Correa was joining the roster, yet Correa’s 13-year, $350MM agreement with San Francisco ended up falling through due to medical concerns on the Giants’ end.

Had the Giants acquired Murphy, they would’ve landed the signature star they were searching for without success last winter, after the Correa deal collapsed and after Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees.  Perhaps adding Murphy might’ve been the spark San Francisco needed to get over the line in the wild card race, as in this alternate reality, the Giants have both Murphy and perhaps another MLB-caliber regular they received in a Patrick Bailey trade.  It is fair to wonder whether Bailey would’ve been shipped out in a world where Murphy is a Giant, instead of our world where Bailey emerged as a rookie and now looks like he’ll be San Francisco’s catcher of the present and future.

It makes for a fun cascade of what-if scenarios, and Bailey’s potential availability then stretches the web beyond just what might’ve happened with the Giants, A’s, Brewers, and Braves.  San Francisco fans may rue missing out on Murphy, though if Bailey continues to develop and Luciano lives up to the hype, the team might end up coming out ahead.

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