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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Gerrit Cole Swap

By Jeff Todd | January 15, 2018 at 8:25am CDT

Gerrit Cole is a highly visible player — a former first overall pick who landed fourth in the National League Cy Young vote in 2015 — so it’s natural there will be strong opinions about the return he drew in the recent swap between the Pirates and Astros. We have already seen a variety of industry opinions pour in (see here, here, here, and here), but I thought it’d be worth taking the temperature of the MLBTR readership.

There’s little reason to full describe the elements of the agreement. (MLBTR’s Conny Byrne discussed all relevant elements in detail in his post on the Cole trade.) But here’s a brief account for purposes of facilitating today’s poll:

Astros receive:

  • 2 years of control over SP Gerrit Cole ($6.75MM for 2018; arbitration for 2019) — following aforementioned 2015 season, Cole was limited by injury in 2016 and pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in a healthy 2017 season

Pirates receive:

  • 4 years of control over RP Michael Feliz — carries 5.13 ERA (allowing 1.5 HR/9) through 121 MLB innings, but has averaged 12.8 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9
  • 5 years of control over SP/RP Joe Musgrove — former first-round pick has been tagged for a .288/.339/.506 slash and 5.37 ERA over 25 MLB starts, but worked to a 1.26 ERA with 39:6 K/BB ratio in 35 2/3 innings last year after moving to the bullpen
  • 6 years of control over 3B Colin Moran — former sixth overall draft pick slashed .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs in 338 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, but has yet to receive significant time in the majors
  • 6 years of control over OF Jason Martin — 22-year-old reached Double-A for first time in 2017, slashing .273/.319/.483 with 11 home runs in 320 plate appearances

Since there are two teams involved with their own set of needs, we’ll ask for grades from each organization’s perspective. For Pittsburgh, clearly, the move was designed to add multiple assets that can deliver value over a longer time frame. If even one of these players really succeeds, it could end up standing as a win. Also of note: the Bucs are said to have passed up a chance at gaining one higher-grade prospect (Clint Frazier of the Yankees) in order to add several contributors.

(Poll link for app users.)

On the Houston side, it’s all the more clear. The team resisted parting with its own blue-chip prospects, but gave a variety of useful pieces up to acquire just two seasons of Cole. If one views him as even a quality and durable mid-rotation starter, and does not think the assets parted with will come back to haunt the ’Stros, then this could be seen as a bargain. On the other hand, there are some questions surrounding Cole and it is not difficult to imagine one or more of the more controllable assets sent to Pittsburgh delivering greater value than will Cole’s final two arb years.

(Poll link for app users.)

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Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates

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More Reaction & Fallout To The Gerrit Cole Trade

By Mark Polishuk | January 14, 2018 at 9:26am CDT

The Astros and Pirates swung a major trade yesterday, with the World Series champions acquiring Gerrit Cole in exchange for a package of four players (Joe Musgrove, Michael Feliz, Colin Moran, Jason Martin).  We’ve already published one batch of reactions to the deal, and now here are some additional details about the trade talks and further analysis about what this deal means for Houston, Pittsburgh, and other clubs…

  • The Astros were able to land Cole without giving up any of their top prospects, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Houston wasn’t willing to offer Forrest Whitley, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, or Yordan Alvarez.  Musgrove and Moran were seen as the top two pieces of the trade by the Pirates, and they pulled the trigger on the deal since Pittsburgh felt no other team was offering two top prospects of better quality in exchange for Cole.  Musgrove, Feliz, and Moran give the Bucs 15 years of controllable talent, which was also a factor in their decision.
  • Also from Crasnick, the Yankees were willing to include one of Clint Frazier or Chance Adams in a potential Cole trade, but not both.  New York was also intent on holding onto its top minor leaguers, as Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Justus Sheffield, and Estevan Florial were considered off-limits in trade talks.
  • The Yankees’ unwillingness to move its best prospects could be due to a belief that Yu Darvish could be signed for a “reasonable” price, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes.  This could be a contract in the range of five years and $80MM-90MM, which would represent a stunning discount from the six-year, $160MM deal MLBTR predicted for Darvish at the start of the offseason.  Even with the unprecedentedly slow nature of this winter’s free agent market, it’s hard to believe Darvish would settle for such a relatively small deal, especially with at least five other teams known to be vying for his services.  Harper also notes that even a five-year/$80MM pact would put the Yankees over the luxury tax limit, unless they were to move another big contract to create payroll space.
  • The Pirates’ return was “more one of quantity than of impact,” ESPN.com’s Keith Law writes, though Cole may only be “a soft upgrade” for the Astros rotation if he replicates his 2017 numbers.  Law feels that Cole’s 2016-17 performance curtailed some of his trade value, and while Houston is obviously hoping that Cole returns to his 2015 form, the trade also could’ve been a way of keeping him away from a chief AL rival like the Yankees.
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Houston Astros New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates Chance Adams Clint Frazier Gerrit Cole Yu Darvish

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Reactions To The Gerrit Cole Trade

By Kyle Downing | January 13, 2018 at 8:16pm CDT

The baseball world is still reeling from the big news earlier today regarding the Astros’ acquisition of Gerrit Cole from the Pirates. Here are a few of the early takes…

  • What better place to start the Cole reactions than with that of Cole himself? The right-hander seems to be incredibly excited to join his new organization. “I’m ecstatic. I got the phone call not too long ago and I was shocked. I couldn’t have been more happy. I’m familiar with a few people on the organization and the team,” Cole said to reporters (hat tip to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). Cole also used the words “flat-out elated” to describe the “unbelievable opportunity” (via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). In addition to his giddiness over his trade to the Astros, Cole also spoke highly of the Pirates organization and expressed a fondness for his years with the team.
  • Cole isn’t the only player expressing excitement about the trade, however. Many of his new teammates have reacted strongly on social media as well. New rotation mate Justin Verlander wrote a tweet with the hashtag #backtoback, while Alex Bregman simply tweeted a gif of himself screaming.
  • Grant Brisbee of sbnation.com notes that although the Astros are young and unburdened by large contracts, the team may have acquired Cole in part because they need to consider their window. Brisbee argues that “there isn’t a team in baseball that knows with metaphysical certitude how they’ll look in three years,” so it was beneficial for Houston to act now in order to create a superteam for 2018. While the notion that Cole’s presence makes the Astros a superteam is debatable, he notes that he may just be one of the best pitchers in baseball if last year’s spike in homers allowed turns out to be a fluke.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington describes the trade as “the balance of immediate and moderate and longer-term.” (hat tip to Liz Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “We felt this was the right move to get these players that are major-league ready with 15 years contribution combined,” Huntington adds.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow offers a timeline of events in reference to his team’s talks with the Pirates about Cole, via Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. Apparently, the two teams were in discussions about the righty as early as last July, but talks were shelved after they couldn’t reach an agreement. During the winter meetings, however, discussions picked up steam again, and after that the teams talked at least once a week until a deal was ultimately agreed upon this morning.
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Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates Gerrit Cole

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Astros Acquire Gerrit Cole

By Connor Byrne | January 13, 2018 at 6:05pm CDT

The Astros have acquired right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates for righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin, according to announcements from both teams.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

Houston and Pittsburgh nearly reached an agreement on a Cole trade earlier this week, but reports of a done deal proved premature. The two sides continued to negotiate, however, and have now come together on one of the most noteworthy trades of the offseason. Cole is the second potential front-end starter the Astros have acquired since last August, when they landed longtime Tigers ace Justin Verlander, who ultimately helped pitch them to their first-ever World Series title a couple months later.

With Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh among their starters on hand, the Astros didn’t exactly have a desperate need for Cole heading into next season. But adding Cole should nonetheless increase their chances to finish atop the major league mountain again in 2018, and with two years of team control remaining, he figures to help their cause through 2019. Neither Keuchel nor Morton is under contract past 2018, which helps explains why the Astros have been in on Cole and other high-end starters this offseason. The Astros’ addition of Cole should affect top free agents like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, both of whom have been on their radar this winter, as it seems to remove a potential suitor for them.

Cole, who settled on a $6.75MM salary for his penultimate year of arbitration control on Friday, is coming off a somewhat disappointing season. Although the 27-year-old racked up 203 innings and continued to serve as one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters, a bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (15.9 percent, well above his career figure of 10.0) helped lead to a personal-worst 4.26 ERA/4.08 FIP.

Given his down 2017, the Pirates weren’t in position to sell high on Cole. However, as a Scott Boras client nearing free agency, the low-payroll club knew its chances to extend him weren’t good. Consequently, the Bucs shopped Cole around the league – including to the Yankees, Twins and Cubs – before sending him to the Astros. Cole had been with the Pirates since they selected him first overall in the 2011 draft, and he looked like an ace with them at times after debuting in 2013. All told, Cole registered a 3.50 ERA/3.27 FIP with 8.44 K/9, 2.34 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate across 782 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh.

Parting with Cole could begin a rebuild for the Pirates, who finished under .500 for the second straight year in 2017. However, acquiring three major league-ready players for him in Musgrove, Moran and Feliz may also help them compete next season. The headliner is arguably the 25-year-old Musgrove, a former top 100 prospect who has worked as both a starter and reliever since debuting in 2016. While Musgrove scuffled as a starter last season, he was utterly dominant in his first big league action out of the bullpen. Moving to a relief role enabled Musgrove to ramp up his velocity, and it helped lead to a 1.44 ERA with just under nine strikeouts per nine and a paltry 1.44 BB/9 across 31 1/3 innings. It’s unclear whether he’ll be a starter or a reliever going forward, but with five years of control, the Pirates will have time to find an ideal role for him.

Moran was a first-round pick of the Marlins in 2013 who topped out as Baseball America’s 61st-ranked prospect after that season, though he hasn’t seen much action in the majors to this point (37 plate appearances). And with the emergence of third baseman Alex Bregman, there simply wasn’t a path to playing time in Houston. The 25-year-old Moran held his own in 2017 at Triple-A – his second season at that level – with a .308/.373/.543 line in 338 PAs. Moran ranked as the Astros’ fifth-best prospect prior to the trade, according to MLB.com, which lauds “his pure left-handed swing and his ability to barrel balls easily while controlling the strike zone.” Defensively, Moran has the hands and arm to handle third, though he lacks range, per MLB.com.

Feliz, 24, amassed significant experience out of the Astros’ bullpen over the previous two seasons, during which he combined to make 98 appearances and throw 121 innings. While Feliz brought high-90s heat, posted a sky-high 13.14 K/9 and a passable 3.5 BB/9 along the way, he only managed a 4.94 ERA – owing in part to a low groundball percentage (37.1 percent) and a lofty home run-to-fly ball rate (16.5 percent). ERA indicators have been bullish on Feliz, who owns a career 3.67 FIP and 3.17 xFIP. He comes with four years of control, including his final pre-arbitration season in 2018.

Martin, an eighth-round pick in 2013, brings the least fanfare of anyone in this trade, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noting on Twitter that he may end up as a reserve outfielder down the line. MLB.com agrees that he won’t turn into a regular option in the corner outfield, though it rated Martin 15th in Houston’s system and suggested he has a chance to develop into a starting center fielder. The 22-year-old spent most of last season in Double-A, where he slashed .273/.319/.483 in 320 PAs.

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported the Astros would acquire Cole, and he added that the Pirates would receive Musgrove and Moran. Jon Heyman of FanRag reported the Pirates would get four total players. Rosenthal reported that Feliz and Martin were in the deal (Twitter links). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Colin Moran Gerrit Cole Joe Musgrove Michael Feliz

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Arbitration Updates: 1/13/18

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2018 at 4:22pm CDT

Here are the arbitration numbers we’ve learned thus far today — all of them coming via the Twitter feed of Jon Heyman of Fan Rag unless otherwise noted:

  • The Giants’ previously known deals with two righty relievers now have dollar values attached. Sam Dyson is slated to earn $4.425MM, while the team will pay righty Cory Gearrin $1.675MM. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $4.6MM award for Dyson and a $1.6MM salary for Gearrin.
  • Diamondbacks infielder Chris Owings settled out at $3.4MM, just a shade over the $3.3MM the team will pay outfielder David Peralta. Swartz had both Owings and Peralta at $3.8MM.
  • Right-hander Nick Vincent will take down a $2.75MM payday from the Mariners, coming in just north of his $2.7MM projection.
  • Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. is set to receive $2.45MM (a bit shy of his projected $2.6MM) in his first season of arb eligibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Infielder Hernan Perez receives $1.975MM from the Brewers, falling short of a $2.2MM projection.
  • The Athletics agreed yesterday with righty Liam Hendriks at $1.9MM, matching his projection, and catcher Josh Phegley for $905K. Swartz had Phegley at $1.1MM.
  • White Sox third baseman Yolmer Sanchez has filed at $2.35MM while the team countered at $2.1MM – the same as his projection.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Chicago White Sox Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers Oakland Athletics San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Chris Owings Cory Gearrin Hernan Perez Josh Phegley Lance McCullers Jr. Liam Hendriks Nick Vincent Sam Dyson Yolmer Sanchez

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AL Notes: Herrera, Royals, Astros, Twins, Rodney

By Connor Byrne | January 13, 2018 at 3:11pm CDT

The Royals are prepared to keep reliever Kelvin Herrera if someone doesn’t offer “a huge haul” for him, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Kansas City seems poised to begin a rebuild in 2018, which is Herrera’s last year of team control – two factors that make him a potential trade chip. Now doesn’t seem to be the ideal time to demand a major return for Herrera, though, considering his numbers trended in the wrong direction in 2017. After recording a 2.75 ERA with 10.75 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 72 innings in 2016, Herrera pitched to a 4.25 ERA and posted 8.49 K/9 against 3.03 BB/9 across 59 1/3 frames last season. The 28-year-old also saw his swinging-strike percentage plummet from 15.2 to 11.5, even though he continued to offer imposing velocity.

More from the American League:

  • Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters Saturday that he’s “very happy” with his current roster, one he thinks is capable of winning a second straight championship in 2018, and added that “we’re in a good spot because we don’t have to do anything.” Luhnow also noted that, although things have been slow to develop across the majors this offseason, free agents and possible trade acquisitions who would improve the Astros would still require “a significant investment.” It seemed earlier this week that Luhnow was set to make such an investment in Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole, but a deal still hasn’t materialized. Luhnow has addressed the Astros pitching in other ways this offseason, though, having added Joe Smith and Hector Rondon to their bullpen (Twitter video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).
  • The Twins’ Saturday agreement with Addison Reed “came out of nowhere” for new teammate and fellow reliever Fernando Rodney, a person close to Rodney told Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. According to Rodney, the Twins promised him their closer role when they signed him last month to a deal that includes incentives for appearances and games finished. “We’ll see how it plays out,” the person told Berardino in regards to the Twins’ late-game setup. Another source informed Berardino that the Twins still plan to begin the season with Rodney as their primary closer.
  • When the Reed signing becomes official, the Twins could jettison left-handed reliever Gabriel Moya to open up a spot on their 40-man roster, per Berardino. Moya, whom the Twins acquired from the Diamondbacks for catcher John Ryan Murphy last July, is fresh off an incredible Double-A season in which he logged a near-spotless ERA (.77) and posted 13.4 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 over 58 1/3 innings. Despite that performance, the 23-year-old Moya does not rank among the Twins’ top 30 prospects at either Baseball America or MLB.com. [Twitter update via Berardino: Moya isn’t at risk of losing his 40-man spot in favor of Reed.]
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Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins Fernando Rodney Kelvin Herrera

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Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

By Jeff Todd | January 12, 2018 at 6:02pm CDT

We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

  • Mookie Betts, Red Sox: expected to go to hearing, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe; Betts filed at $10.5MM, Boston countered at $7.5MM (per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, via Twitter)
  • George Springer, Astros: did not settle, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter); Springer filed at $10.5MM, Houston countered at $8.5MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Ken Giles, Astros: did not settle, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter); Giles filed at $4.6MM, Houston countered at $4.2MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Collin McHugh, Astros: did not settle, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter); McHugh filed at $5.0MM, Houston countered at $4.55MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Jonathan Schoop, Orioles: Schoop filed at $9MM, Baltimore countered at $7.5MM (per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, via Twitter)
  • Kevin Gausman, Orioles: Gausman filed at $6.225MM, Baltimore countered at $5.3MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays: Stroman filed at $6.9MM, Toronto countered at $6.5MM (per Nightengale, via Twitter)
  • Roberto Osuna, Blue Jays: Osuna filed at $5.8MM, Toronto countered at $5.3MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Jose Iglesias, Tigers: Iglesias filed at $6.8MM, Detroit countered at $5.6MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Avisail Garcia, White Sox: Garcia filed at $6.7MM, Chicago countered at $5.85MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Trevor Bauer, Indians: Bauer filed at $6.525MM, Cleveland countered at $5.3MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Jake Odorizzi, Rays: Odorizzi filed at $6.3MM, Tampa Bay countered at $6.05MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Adeiny Hechavarria, Rays: Hechavarria filed at $5.9MM, Tampa Bay countered at $5.35MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Scooter Gennett, Reds: expected to go to hearing, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer; Gennett filed at $5.7MM, Cincinnati countered at $5.1MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Eugenio Suarez, Reds: expected to go to hearing, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer; Suarez filed at $4.2MM, Cincinnati countered at $3.75MM (per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, via Twitter)
  • Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks: Miller filed at $4.9MM, Arizona countered $4.7MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Kyle Gibson, Twins: Gibson filed at $4.55MM, Minnesota countered at $4.2MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • J.T. Realmuto, Marlins: have not agreed to terms, per team announcement; Realmuto filed at $3.5MM, Miami countered at 2.9MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Dan Straily, Marlins: have not agreed to terms, per team announcement; Straily filed at $3.55MM, Miami countered at $3.37MM (per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, via Twitter)
  • Justin Bour, Marlins: have not agreed to terms, per team announcement; Bour filed at $3.4MM, Miami countered at $3MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Brandon Maurer, Royals: have hit stalemate, per Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (via Twitter); Maurer filed at $3.5MM, Kansas City countered at $2.95MM (per Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, via Twitter)
  • Felipe Rivero, Pirates: Rivero filed at $2.9MM, Pittsburgh countered at $2.4MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Kendall Graveman, Athletics: Graveman filed at $2.6MM, Oakland countered at $2.36MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Justin Grimm, Cubs: Grimm filed at $2.475MM, Chicago countered at $2.2MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Mike Foltynewicz, Braves: Foltynewicz filed at $2.3MM, Atlanta countered at $2.2MM (per Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Zack Wheeler, Mets: Wheeler filed at $1.9MM, New York countered at $1.5MM (per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, via Twitter)
  • Other tendered players who have not yet reportedly agreed to terms: Yolmer Sanchez, White Sox; Brad Hand, Padres
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins New York Mets Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Adeiny Hechavarria Avisail Garcia Brandon Maurer Collin McHugh Dan Straily Eugenio Suarez Felipe Rivero George Springer J.T. Realmuto Jake Odorizzi Jonathan Schoop Jose Iglesias Justin Bour Justin Grimm Ken Giles Kendall Graveman Kevin Gausman Kyle Gibson Marcus Stroman Mike Foltynewicz Mookie Betts Roberto Osuna Scooter Gennett Shelby Miller Trevor Bauer Zack Wheeler

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Astros Avoid Arbitration With Dallas Keuchel

By Jeff Todd | January 12, 2018 at 3:57pm CDT

The Astros have settled with starter Dallas Keuchel, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle first tweeted. Keuchel will earn $13.2MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).

Notably, the Astros have not been able to work out agreements wit a few other important players. Outfielder George Springer, reliever Ken Giles, and starter Collin McHugh will file figures, Kaplan tweets, though of course it’s still possible they will settle before going to a hearing.

Keuchel, 30, posted a strong 2.90 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 on the year in 2017, though he was limited by injury to 145 2/3 innings. That tamped down on his earning power somewhat, though Keuchel still earns a healthy raise on his $9.15MM salary from 2017. He had been projected to earn $12.6MM by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz, but tops that figure by $600K.

As things stand, this’ll be Keuchel’s final season in Houston. He’ll hit the open market after the 2018 campaign unless the sides are able to work out a longer-term agreement at some point.

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Houston Astros Transactions Collin McHugh Dallas Keuchel George Springer Ken Giles

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Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

By Steve Adams | January 12, 2018 at 3:00pm CDT

The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salarie

American League West

  • The Astros and Evan Gattis agreed to a $6.7MM deal for 2018, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). A free agent next season, Gattis lands within $100K of his $6.6MM projection. The club also has deals (for values unknown) with starters Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Brad Peacock, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
  • The Rangers agreed to a $1.05MM deal with infielder Jurickson Profar, tweets Murray. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram, meanwhile, tweets that lefty Jake Diekman landed a $2.7125MM deal and righty Keone Kela will earn $1.2MM. Profar had been projected at $1.1MM and is controllable another three seasons. Diekman, a free agent next winter, was projected at $2.8MM. And Kela, still controlled for three more years, matched his $1.2MM projection on the dot.
  • The Athletics and closer Blake Treinen agreed to a $2.15MM deal for next year, tweets Murray. The A’s can control Treinen for another three years. He was projected at $2.3MM. Shortstop Marcus Semien has settled for $3.125MM, Heyman tweets; his $3.2MM projection was nearly spot-on. Oakland has announced that it has avoided arbitration with Liam Hendriks and Josh Phegley as well, but their salaries have yet to be reported.
  • The Angels have a one-year, $7.3MM agreement in place with right-hander Garrett Richards, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Richards, a free agent next offseason, tops his $7MM projection by a margin of $300K. The Halos have also avoided arb with first baseman C.J. Cron ($2.3MM) and left-hander Tyler Skaggs ($1.875MM), tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Cron’s total falls a ways shy of his $2.8MM projection, while Skaggs comes in just $25K south of his $1.9MM projection. Both are controllable through the 2020 season. Lastly, Murray tweets that Matt Shoemaker agreed to a $4.125MM deal. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.4MM. Fletcher also tweets that the club has agreed with righty J.C. Ramirez ($1.9MM salary vs. $2.6MM projection) and lefty Jose Alvarez ($1.05MM salary vs. $1.1MM projection). Finally, righty Cam Bedrosian has agreed at $1.1MM, Flecher tweets, which represents a payday close to his projection of $1.2MM.
  • Left-hander James Paxton will earn $4.9MM with the Mariners in 2018, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Murray tweets that the Mariners and David Phelps agreed to a $5.55MM deal. Paxton, controlled through 2020, projected to earn $5.6MM, while Phelps was pegged at $5.8MM. He’s a free agent next winter. Righty Erasmo Ramirez took a $4.2MM deal, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. That’s half a million shy of what the model suggested. Fellow right-hander Nick Vincent also has an agreement, but the terms aren’t yet known.

American League Central

  • New lefty Luis Avilan has agreed to a $2.45MM deal with the White Sox, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports via Twitter. The recent trade acquisition came with a projected $2.3MM price tag. Fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon will receive $2.3MM, a bit of a bump over the $2MM he projected to receive. Also, utilityman Leury Garcia gets $1.175MM, which is just $25K short of his projected value.
  • The Royals and righty Nate Karns agreed to a $1.375MM deal for 2018, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (on Twitter). That lands within $25K of his $1.4MM projection for the coming season. Kansas City controls Karns through 2020. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter) that Kelvin Herrera will earn $7.9375MM in 2018, landing a bit shy of his $8.3MM projection. Herrera is a free agent next winter.
  • The Indians have a $5MM agreement with righty Danny Salazar, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. He had projected to earn just $200K more, this falls right in line with expectations. Cleveland also agreed with Lonnie Chisenhall on a $5.5875MM deal, tweets Nightengale. The third baseman-turned-outfielder, who was projected to earn $5.8MM, will be a free agent following the 2018 season.
  • Trevor May has a $650K agreement with the Twins for the 2018 season, according to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. May, who missed the entire season due to Tommy John surgery (and did some writing for MLBTR during his rehab process), had been projected at $600K. The Twins also agreed to a $1MM deal with infielder Ehire Adrianza, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Meanwhile, righty Ryan Pressly has agreed to a $1.6MM deal, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Both deals are identical matches with their projections. Adrianza has three years of team control remaining, while Pressly has two. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that outfielder Robbie Grossman settled at $2MM, leaving him $400K shy of his projection. Grossman is controlled for another three seasons.
  • Tigers third baseman/outfielder Nick Castellanos will earn $6.05MM, per Heyman (via Twitter). He had projected at a much heftier $7.6MM in his second-to-last season of arb eligibility. MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports (Twitter links) that the Tigers and right-handed reliever Alex Wilson settled at $1.925MM, while fellow righty Shane Greene will earn $1.95MM. Wilson was projected to earn $2.1MM, while Greene was at $1.7MM. Wilson is controlled through 2019, while Greene is under control through 2020.

American League East

  • The Yankees have knocked out some of their biggest arb cases, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). Shortstop Didi Gregorius receives $8.25MM and righty Sonny Gray checks in at $6.5MM. The former had projected to earn $9.0MM while the algorithm was just $100K high on the latter.Backstop Austin Romine will earn $1.1MM, Heyman also tweets, which is also $100K below the projection. Righty Adam Warren and the Yankees have a $3.315MM deal, per Murray (Twitter link). This is Warren’s final season of eligibility before hitting the open market next winter. He’d been projected at $3.1MM. Meanwhile, fellow right-hander Dellin Betances has agreed to a $5.1MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). That’s just $100K more than Betances had sought last year, when he took his case to a hearing that he ultimately lost. But it’s quite a bit more than the $4.4MM he projected to receive after a subpar season in which he played at a $3MM salary.
  • The Red Sox have agreed to pay $8.5MM to southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That’s short of the $9.1MM that had been projected after Pomeranz turned in a productive 2017 season. Boston and Jackie Bradley Jr. settled at $6.1MM, tweets Murray. That’s a bit north of the $5.9MM at which he’d been projected for the upcoming season. Bradley Jr., a Super Two player, has another three seasons of club control remaining. Nightengale tweets that righty Joe Kelly ($3.6MM projection) agreed to a $3.825MM deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez ($2.375MM salary vs. $2.7MM projection) and righty Brandon Workman ($835K salary vs. $900K projection) are two other Sox hurlers that have agreed to terms, Speier reports (Twitter links). On the position player side, catcher Sandy Leon falls a bit under his projection $1.95MM (via Speier, on Twitter) while utilityman Brock Holt just beats expectations at $2.225MM (per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, on Twitter). The team also agreed with shortstop Xander Bogaerts for $7.05MM, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets, which comes in a bit shy of his $7.6MM projection. Boston also announced agreement with backstop Christian Vazquez, who’ll earn $1.425MM, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). That’s just under the projection of $1.5MM.
  • The Blue Jays and righty Aaron Sanchez agreed to a $2.7MM deal for 2018, according to Nightengale (Twitter link). That crushes his $1.9MM projection, which was likely suppressed due Sanchez’s lack of innings (just 36) in 2017. He’s under Jays control through 2020. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, meanwhile, tweets that second baseman Devon Travis will make $1.45MM next year, falling a bit shy of his $1.7MM forecast. Other Toronto players agreeing to terms include Kevin Pillar ($3.25MM vs. $4.0MM projection) and Dominic Leone ($1.085MM vs. $1.2MM projection), MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets.
  • The Rays and closer Alex Colome settled at $5.3M, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (on Twitter). He’d been projected at $5.5MM and is controllable for three more years. They also settled at $5.95MM with outfielder/DH Corey Dickerson ($6.4MM projection) and $4.5MM with infielder Brad Miller ($4.4MM projection), per Murray (all Twitter links). Steven Souza, according to Murray will earn $3.55MM, placing him right in line with his $3.6MM projection. Dickerson and Miller are controlled through 2019. Souza is controlled through 2020.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Aaron Sanchez Adam Warren Alex Colome Alex Wilson Austin Romine Blake Treinen Brad Miller Brad Peacock Brandon Workman Brock Holt C.J. Cron Cam Bedrosian Carlos Rodon Christian Vazquez Corey Dickerson Dallas Keuchel Danny Salazar David Phelps Dellin Betances Devon Travis Didi Gregorius Dominic Leone Drew Pomeranz Eduardo Rodriguez Ehire Adrianza Erasmo Ramirez Evan Gattis Garrett Richards J.C. Ramirez Jackie Bradley Jr. Jake Diekman James Paxton Joe Kelly Josh Phegley Jurickson Profar Kelvin Herrera Keone Kela Kevin Pillar La Velle E. Neal III Lance McCullers Jr. Leury Garcia Liam Hendriks Lonnie Chisenhall Luis Avilan Marcus Semien Matt Shoemaker Nate Karns Nick Castellanos Nick Vincent Robbie Grossman Ryan Pressly Sandy Leon Shane Greene Sonny Gray Steven Souza Trevor May Tyler Skaggs Xander Bogaerts

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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/11/18

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2018 at 11:12pm CDT

With tomorrow’s deadline for exchanging arbitration figures looming, arbitration agreements are likely to flow freely — particularly with a newly universal file-and-trial stance spurring things along. As always, MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Projections and 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker are the places to go for more information. We’ll track today’s deals right here:

  • D-backs lefty Patrick Corbin has signed a one-year contract for the 2018 season, the club announced tonight. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Corbin, who will be a free agent next season, will earn $7.5MM in his final season of arbitration. That comes in shy of his $8.3MM projection, though it’s nonetheless nearly twice what he made in 2017 ($3.95MM).
  • The Blue Jays avoided arbitration with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and lefty Aaron Loup, per Nightengale (Twitter links). Carrera’s $1.9MM salary matches his projection, while Loup’s $1.8125MM payday is slightly north of his own $1.8MM projection. Loup will be a free agent next winter, while Carrera is controlled through 2019.
  • Nightengale also tweets that Angels catcher Martin Maldonado has agreed to a $3.9MM salary for the upcoming season, meaning the reigning AL Gold Glove winner behind the dish rather handily trounced his $2.8MM projection. Maldonado, 31, is also entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter.

Earlier Agreements

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  • Infielder Eduardo Escobar and the Twins have agreed to a one-year deal worth $4.85MM, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports. The switch-hitting Escobar will give the Twins a utility infielder with some pop and could see significant playing time early in the year if Miguel Sano is suspended. Escobar will be a free agent next offseason. His salary falls within $50K of his projected $4.9MM payday.
  • The Dodgers and catcher Yasmani Grandal have settled on a one-year, $7.9MM contract for the 2018 season, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The switch-hitting Grandal, long rated as one of the game’s top pitch framers, will be a free agent next winter. He’d been projected at $7.7MM. Nightengale also tweets that righty Pedro Baez will land a $1.5MM salary for the upcoming season, matching his projected salary on the dot.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Yankees and Aaron Hicks have settled on a one-year deal worth $2.825MM, placing him $75K shy of his $2.9MM projection. Hicks enjoyed a breakout 2017 season and heads into 2018 as the favorite to play center field on a daily basis in the Bronx. He’s controlled through 2019.
  • Meanwhile, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that hard-throwing right-hander Tommy Kahnle and the Yankees agreed to a one-year, $1.3125MM pact for the upcoming season. Kahnle and his triple-digit fastball will be under team control through 2020. He was projected at $1.3MM.
  • Braves lefty reliever Sam Freeman has agreed to a $1.075MM salary for the 2017 season, tweets Nightengale. After bouncing to the Braves, his fourth team in four years, Freeman turned in a terrific season and looks to have secured some stability heading into 2018. He’d been projected to earn $1.2MM.
  • The Tigers and catcher James McCann have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.375MM salary for the 2018 season, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (on Twtter). McCann, who had a projected salary of $2.3MM, hit .253/.318/.415 with a career-high 13 homers and a 30 percent caught-stealing rate behind the dish in 2017. The Tigers announced the signing shortly thereafter.
  • The Athletics have settled with righty Chris Hatcher for $2.15MM, Nightengale tweets, which is just $100K short of his projection. Hatcher will be arbitration-eligible once more next winter before hitting free agency following the 2019 season.
  • Mariners catcher Mike Zunino will play for $2.975MM in 2018, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. He had projected at $3.2MM after an excellent bounceback season. Zunino has two more years of arbitration eligibility.
  • The Cardinals have settled at $2.6MM with outfielder Randal Grichuk, Nightengale tweets. That falls just a bit shy of his $2.8MM projection. It’s not yet clear whether Grichuk will remain with St. Louis through to Opening Day, though at this point he’d be a part of a crowded outfield mix.
  • Angels righty Blake Parker will receive $1.8MM, Heyman tweets. That’s within close range of the $1.7MM we projected for his 3+ service-class season. While the 32-year-old had bounced around since a fantastic 2013 season, he re-emerged in 2017. He gave the Halos 67 1/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball with 11.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.
  • The Rockies agreed to a $1,287,500 payday with lefty Chris Rusin, per Nightengale (via Twitter). He’ll fall a bit shy of his $1.4MM projection. Rusin, 31, is fresh off of a strong season in which he compiled a 2.65 ERA in 85 frames. He figures to be a key component of the Colorado bullpen again in 2018.
  • The Astros have settled at a $1.9MM rate with outfielder Jake Marisnick, Heyman tweets. That’s just shy of his $2.0MM projection. The 26-year-old earned $1.1MM last year as a Super Two. Marisnick turned in a stunning year at the plate, slashing .243/.319/.496 slash and launching 16 home runs in only 259 plate appearances. Of course, that limited playing time also limited his earning potential.
  • Righty Zach McAllister will receive $2.45MM from the Indians, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports on Twitter. Entering his third and final year of eligibility, the 30-year-old had projected at a $2.4MM rate, so he’s coming in right at expectations. McAllister ran a 2.61 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 last year over 62 innings, representing his best full season of work. He has been a steady performer since moving into a full-time relief role in 2015.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Aaron Hicks Aaron Loup Blake Parker Chris Hatcher Chris Rusin Eduardo Escobar Ezequiel Carrera Jake Marisnick James McCann Martin Maldonado Mike Zunino Patrick Corbin Pedro Baez Randal Grichuk Sam Freeman Tommy Kahnle Yasmani Grandal Zach McAllister

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