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Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Pirates, John Ryan Murphy Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed catcher John Ryan Murphy to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s represented by ISE Baseball.

Murphy, 28, spent the bulk of the 2019 season with the D-backs, although he finished out the year with a brief stint in the Braves organization. He’s a light-hitting backstop who’s generally considered to be among the game’s premier options in terms of pitch framing. Murphy was once considered a solid catching prospect with the Yankees and Twins, but to this point in his career he’s managed only a .219/.265/.357 batting line through 674 plate appearances. He hit well, particularly relative to other catchers, up through the Double-A level but owns a tepid .244/.306/.380 line through parts of five Triple-A seasons.

Pittsburgh’s catching mix is fairly open at the moment. Jacob Stallings is the favorite to handle starting duties after posting a respectable batting line and playing strong defense in 2019. Luke Maile joined the organization as a free agent and was given a 40-man roster spot, placing him in line to serve as the backup to Stallings. Murphy, though, will provide some competition for Maile (a high-end framer himself) and can otherwise serve as an experienced depth option in the upper minors if he’s unable to break camp with the team.

Pirates Designate Pablo Reyes For Assignment

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The Pirates have designated utilityman Pablo Reyes for assignment, the club announced.  The move creates roster space for Guillermo Heredia, whose one-year deal with the Bucs is now official.

Over his 89 career games as a Major Leaguer since the start of the 2018 season, Reyes has already played multiple games at all three outfield positions, second base, third base, and shortstop.  The bulk of that work has come as a corner outfielder, though Reyes’ versatility is a nice boost for a player who has yet to hit much at the MLB level — just a .229/.295/.368 slash line and five home runs over 220 plate appearances.

The 26-year-old Reyes has displayed more pop at the minor league level, hitting .278/.351/.421 over 2587 PA in Pittsburgh’s farm system.  This includes an .885 OPS over 191 PA at Triple-A Indianapolis last season, though as with many minor leaguers in 2019, it’s hard to tell if the increased numbers indicate genuine progress on Reyes’ part.  (The Triple-A level as a whole experienced an untold offensive surge after adopting the MLB baseball.)  Between Reyes’ raw numbers and his value as a utility player, however, there’s a chance another team might be interest in plucking him away from Pittsburgh on the waiver wire.

Pirates Sign Guillermo Heredia

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5:03PM: The Pirates officially announced the signing.

1:24PM: The Pirates have agreed to a deal with free-agent outfielder Guillermo Heredia, as first reported by Francys Romero of Los Mayores (Twitter link). It’s a Major League deal, MLB.com’s Adam Berry adds. Heredia is represented by Magnus Sports.

The 28-year-old Heredia was with the Rays in 2019 and spent the three prior seasons with Seattle. He’s seen action in 382 big league games and batted a combined .240/.317/.342 with 17 homers, 46 doubles, a triple and six stolen bases in 1101 plate appearances. While Heredia’s overall profile isn’t exactly eye-catching, he’s been a solid producer against left-handed pitching, hitting at a .274/.335/.401 clip in 487 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage (including a sharp .281/.339/.456 slash in 2019).

Heredia is capable of handling all three outfield spots, and while he doesn’t have plus marks for his work in center field, both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved feel he’s a strong defender in either corner slot. Despite playing in only a part-time role and being shuffled between the Majors and Triple-A, Heredia ranks 21st among 565 big league outfielders with 19 Outs Above Average dating back to 2016, per Statcast.

The Rays non-tendered Heredia back in December despite a rather timid $1.1MM projected salary in arbitration. He has three-plus years of Major League service time, meaning that the Pirates can control him via arbitration all the way through 2022 should they see fit. Just how he fits into the club’s outfield picture is largely dependent on the fate of Starling Marte, for whom the organization is listening to trade offers.

Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Bell

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Josh Bell established himself as a formidable power hitter just in time for his platform year, leading into his first time through the arbitration process. The first baseman hit 37 home runs and knocked in 116 while batting .277—all career highs. Despite being a far less productive hitter prior to 2019, Bell still accumulated some decent career numbers as well thanks to playing full-time for three consecutive seasons. He totaled 78 home runs and 287 RBIs, along with a .265 average. My model projects Bell to earn $5.9 million his first time through arbitration.

The model does not explicitly pick comparables when generating its projection, but it will logically place Bell near some of his most similar hitters while compensating for some salary inflation. Bell’s arbitration case is pretty well-established—he is a hitter who had an elite power year in his platform with solid but non-elite performance prior to that.

Ideally, a comparable player is somebody who plays the same position. But looking for hitters who already play first base full-time before reaching arbitration is challenging.

Chris Carter had similar power numbers when he entered arbitration in 2015, but a far inferior batting average and was also a DH for most of his platform season. He earned $4.18MM after hitting 37 home runs and knocking in 88 his platform season, a totaling 85 HR and 216 RBI in his career. But his platform batting average was only .227 and his career average was .222. This is obviously a likely floor for Bell, who five years later has bested Carter in each of these categories.

Wil Myers obviously played a few positions by the time he entered arbitration in 2017, but commonly played first base. He hit .259 with 28 home runs and 94 runs batted in during his platform year, but stole 28 bases. He only hit 55 home runs in his career though, far less than Bell’s 78. So Myers’ $4.5MM salary seems likely to be low as well.

If we expand to other positions on the diamond, I can find four other infielders in the last five years who hit at least 30 home runs in their platform year and batted at least .250, but did not have 90 home runs in their career, putting them in a similar position to Bell. Each of the four players earned between $5.0MM and $5.2MM and has similarities to Bell.

Last season, Javier Baez entered arbitration with a .290/34/111 platform but stole 21 bases, and had .267/81/269 career numbers to go along with 49 steals. The numbers are certainly similar to Bell, if a little bit better, and Baez plays a harder position. Baez’s $5.2 million could be a benchmark for determining Bell’s 2020 earnings.

Trevor Story also had a similar case going into last season, with a .291/37/108 line in his platform year, and a .268/88/262 line for his career. Story plays a harder position and steals bases at a regular clip as well—27 in his platform year. Story’s $5.0MM could also be a solid benchmark for Bell.

Going back to 2016, we also find a couple third basemen with similar batting numbers to Bell. Both Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado got $5.0MM. Machado hit .286/35/86 platform and .281/68/215 career, while Arenado had a .287/42/130 platform and a .281/70/243 career. Machado had stolen 20 bases in his platform as well. Both arguably had better cases than Bell, but being four years old, these cases are a bit stale.

I think that the model could be a little high on Bell, projecting him for $5.9MM when he may land closer to $5.0MM. It is clear that he should outearn other recent first basemen who got salaries in the low-to-mid $4MM range, but not clear enough that some of the 3B and SS who earned $5.0MM to $5.2MM have weaker cases at all. Salary inflation could push him past them, but I suspect he will land right around $5 million.

Front Office Notes: Yankees, Reds, Pirates

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The Yankees made the playoffs and won the AL East last year in what remains one of the greatest mysteries of 2019—after all, just how does any team, no matter how talented, win games in spite of nearly three dozen injured list placements? It seems that’s a question the New York front office would rather avoid moving forward, judging by their hire of Eric Cressey, a well known and “highly sought-after” performance coach (in the words of The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

Cressey, the proprietor of Cressey Sports Performance, has counted Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber as personal clients in recent years, and, according to Adler’s report, will help determine the direction of New York’s strength-and-conditioning program, along with taking a lead on personnel decisions. Interestingly, the Yankees will not require Cressey to divest himself of his personal clientele through CSR, not unlike the Reds allowed when they hired Driveline’s Kyle Boddy earlier this offseason.

More notes on behind-the-scenes men and women driving MLB…

  • Speaking of Boddy, the new Reds minor league pitching coordinator gave a talk at the American Baseball Coaches Association shedding light on Cincinnati’s organizational pitching philosophy, as covered by Baseball America’s JJ Cooper. Data, as would surprise almost no one, will be central to Boddy’s appraisal of both players and coaches. “Our coaches are graded on skills progression,” Boddy said. “This guy came in throwing 90. At the end of the year, he averages 93. What did you do to do that? This guy had a 30-grade slider based on our data scientists, he now has a 65-grade slider. Why did that happen?… We are holding coaches accountable, and we are promoting them and celebrating them based on the work that they do.” Boddy also shared that every session between pitching coaches and pitchers will be videotaped for later evaluation, with transcription software documenting conversations.
  • Former Astros international scouting director, special assistant and major league interpreter Oz Ocampo is joining the Pirates’ front office under new general manager Ben Cherington, in what the baseball man called a return to his “scouting roots” in a Twitter post relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (link). In addition to his tenure with the Astros, Ocampo has also spent time working under Kim Ng at the MLB office.

Latest On Starling Marte

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Pirates center fielder Starling Marte stands out as one of the game’s most obvious trade chips, especially considering the non-contending club has a new general manager in Ben Cherington. The Mets have been connected to Marte throughout the offseason, and though it doesn’t appear a trade is imminent, the teams “have exchanged names” for a potential deal sometime this winter, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

As was reported before, Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo did come up in their discussions with the Pirates, Heyman tweets. However, the Pirates “may prefer prospects” to the soon-to-be 27-year-old Nimmo, who has arbitration eligibility for the next three seasons.

With no clear-cut starter in center, New York looks like a logical fit for Marte. But the Mets are facing plenty of competition from elsewhere for the 31-year-old. The Diamondbacks and Rangers join the previously reported Padres among teams that have at least checked in on Marte’s availability, per Heyman.

Although it’s unclear when they last discussed Marte with the Pirates, the inclusion of the D-backs is interesting, as they seemingly just completed their outfield by agreeing to sign Kole Calhoun. He’s slated to accompany Ketel Marte (center) and David Peralta (left) in the grass for Arizona. However, Ketel Marte can also play second base, so adding Starling Marte would enable the former to turn his full-time focus to the infield.

As for the Rangers, they appear to have a clearer opening in center after trading Delino DeShields to Cleveland earlier this month as part of the clubs’ Corey Kluber swap. Joey Gallo did see time there last season, but the plan is for him to handle right next year. Meanwhile, the team could prefer to shift the versatile Danny Santana around the diamond. With that in mind, there appears to be room for the acquisition of a proven center fielder such as Marte, one of the game’s most valuable players at his position.

For the Pirates, there is no doubt the high demand for capable center fielders and the dearth of starters available in free agency works in their favor. Plus, Marte’s affordability – he’s due a guaranteed $11.5MM in 2020 and has a ’21 club option for $12.5MM (or a $1MM buyout) – only adds to his trade value.

Coaching Notes: Giants, Rangers, Pirates

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Here’s the latest coaching news from around the majors…

  • The Giants have hired Antoan Richardson to coach first base, base runners and outfielders, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Richardson previously worked as the Giants’ minor league outfield coordinator in 2019, and he’ll take over for Jose Alguacil in his new position. Now 36 years old, Richardson was a 35th-round pick of the Giants in 2005, though he never took a major league at-bat with the team. Richardson ultimately collected 21 MLB plate appearances as a Brave and Yankee in parts of two seasons, and he may be best known for scoring the winning run in Derek Jeter’s last AB at Yankee Stadium back in 2014.
  • The Rangers are set to hire Doug Mathis as their bullpen coach, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. He’ll take over for Oscar Marin, who served in the role last season and recently earned a promotion to become Pittsburgh’s pitching coach. The 36-year-old Mathis will now return to the Texas organization, which used a 13th-round pick on him in the 2005 draft. He wound up spending parts of three seasons (2008-10) in the majors, all with the Rangers, and concluded his professional pitching career in 2014. More recently, Mathis worked as Toronto’s Triple-A pitching coach in 2019.
  • Glenn Sherlock has joined the Pirates’ coaching staff, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. He’ll assist with Pittsburgh’s catchers and the club’s run prevention efforts. Sherlock, 59, divided the previous three seasons as the Mets’ first and third base coaches. He spent 19 years as a coach with the Diamondbacks prior to that. Before his coaching career began, Sherlock was a catcher in the minors from 1983-89.

NL Notes: Cervelli, Carlson, Garcia, Musgrove

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The latest from the National League…

  • The Marlins are trying to work out a contract with catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Injuries have plagued Cervelli over the last several seasons, most notably (and seriously) a series of concussions.  Cervelli was limited to only 48 games for the Pirates and Braves in 2019 due to concussion symptoms, yet it was as recently as 2018 that Cervelli hit .259/.378/.431 with 12 homers over 404 plate appearances for Pittsburgh.  The 33-year-old backstop (notably, a former Yankees teammate of Marlins CEO Derek Jeter) would act as a veteran backup to Jorge Alfaro in Miami.
  • Saturday’s trade between the Cardinals and Rangers that sent Adolis Garcia to Texas had roots at the Winter Meetings, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, as the Cards were known to be shopping their surplus of right-handed hitting outfielders.  With this “head start on talks” about Garcia, the Cardinals expected Texas or another club to step up with a suitable trade offer when Garcia was designated for assignment earlier this week.  Moving Garcia eliminated one name from a still-crowded Cardinals outfield, so more moves could still be in the offing for St. Louis.  One player who doesn’t seem likely to be moved is top prospect Dylan Carlson, as the Cardinals unsurprisingly “have had near zero interest in including” Carlson in any trade talks this winter.
  • Though the demand for pitching continues to increase and the Pirates could be entering into something of a rebuild period under new GM Ben Cherington, right-hander Joe Musgrove might not be a trade candidate, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required).  “I seriously doubt [the Pirates] would talk about him.  They may say they’d talk about him, but they’re not going to trade him,” a official on a rival team told Olney.  Musgrove just turned 27 and is arbitration-eligible for only the first time, projected by MLBTR to earn $3.4MM.  That’s a more than affordable price for the low-payroll Bucs, considering that Musgrove posted a 4.44 ERA, 4.03 K/BB rate, and 8.3 K/9 over 170 1/3 innings last season, and generated 5.5 fWAR in 2018-19.  The Blue Jays are one team known to have discussed Musgrove in trade talks this winter, though those discussions reportedly amounted to little.

NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Cubs, Bryant, Pirates, Reds

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Third baseman Josh Donaldson, the No. 1 free agent left on the board, continues to contemplate his future. The Nationals, Twins, Dodgers and Braves (with whom he thrived in 2019) look like the front-runners for his services. All things being equal, though, it appears Donaldson would prefer to stay in Atlanta. The “belief” is Donaldson’s camp has promised the Braves he’ll let them make a final offer before he signs anywhere else, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The problem, as O’Brien notes, is that the Braves may not want to give Donaldson, 34, four guaranteed years. Meanwhile, Washington and Minnesota are reportedly open to doing so.

More from the National League…

  • The Cubs’ Kris Bryant could be a trade target for Atlanta if it doesn’t re-sign Donaldson, though it’s still unclear how much more team control the former has left. Bryant filed a grievance over service time against the Cubs, whose decision to delay the now-star’s promotion in 2015 earned them an extra year of control. That grievance was heard back in October, and briefs were due Friday, but arbitrator Mark Irvings’ ruling won’t arrive until sometime after Jan. 1, Evan Drellich of The Athletic tweets. For now, Bryant’s under control for two more years, but that figure will drop to one if he unexpectedly wins his grievance. The 27-year-old has been featured in trade rumors, but at least until the league knows how much more control Bryant has, it’s highly unlikely he’ll go anywhere.
  • Rookie Pirates manager Derek Shelton has chosen Tarrik Brock as his first base coach, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. This will be the second go-around as a major league 1B coach for Brock, who worked in that role for the Padres in 2016. He went on to serve as the Dodgers’ minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator from 2017-19. Now 45, Brock’s a former outfielder who saw brief MLB action in 2000 with the Cubs.
  • The Reds hired Joe Mather as assistant hitting coach earlier this week, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The 37-year-old Mather – who, like Brock, is an ex-outfielder – spent last season as the Diamondbacks’ minor league field and hitting coordinator. He’ll now work alongside new Reds hitting coach Alan Zinter.
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