- With a glut of outfielders in both the majors and minors, the Cardinals are in position to “dominate” that segment of the trade market, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America observes (subscription required and recommended). Glaser goes on to break down the likelihood of the organization trading any of its top 11 outfielders, including Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Jose Martinez.
Cardinals Rumors
Cardinals Rumors: Stanton, Yelich, Bullpen
Meanwhile, a much-needed addition to the Cardinals’ bullpen could come soon. The Cards have reached out to representatives for certain impending free agent relievers this weekend, relays Goold, who expects them to pursue a closer and possibly a setup man. Trading for bullpen help also seems possible, as the Cardinals are facing a 40-man roster logjam in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft. With the need to finalize his 40-man by the Nov. 20 deadline, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that the team may “consider moving two roster players for one. That kind of thing. We have to be open to try.”
The Cardinals are more likely to trade for an impact bat than sign one, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reported Saturday that the Cardinals are willing to offer “one of their best young pitchers” for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, and Goold adds that the Redbirds will have discussions with Miami about both Stanton and center fielder Christian Yelich this offseason.
Meanwhile, a much-needed addition to the Cardinals’ bullpen could come soon. The Cards have reached out to representatives for certain impending free agent relievers this weekend, relays Goold, who expects them to pursue a closer and possibly a setup man. Trading for bullpen help also seems possible, as the Cardinals are facing a 40-man roster logjam in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft. With the need to finalize his 40-man by the Nov. 20 deadline, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that the team may “consider moving two roster players for one. That kind of thing. We have to be open to try.”
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton
The Cardinals have been linked to Giancarlo Stanton in trade speculation since the summer, and now Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com writes that the Cards are reportedly willing to offer the Marlins “one of their best young pitchers” in a Stanton trade, provided that Miami covers some of the $295MM remaining on the slugger’s enormous contract.
St. Louis is known to be looking for a difference-making bat this offseason, and few fit that description better than Stanton, fresh off a league-leading 59 homers in 2017. Acquiring Stanton, of course, will be no easy feat, even with the Marlins looking to pare down their payroll by getting Stanton’s contract off their books. Assuming Stanton, who has full no-trade protection, even approves of a deal to St. Louis, the Cardinals and Marlins would then have to work out what would undoubtedly be a complex set of negotiations to determine the players and money involved in such a trade.
The $295MM figure is enough to give any team pause, and Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak expressed wariness back in August about how large contracts can adversely impact a team’s performance. It isn’t surprising that the Cards would want the Marlins to eat some of Stanton’s contract to make a deal happen, though the dollar figure will surely hinge on just how many good prospects St. Louis is willing to send Miami.
Looking at young pitching within the Cardinals’ system, names like Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara, Junior Fernandez, and Dakota Hudson all stand out as candidates to be the mystery arm on offer to the Marlins. Weaver, Flaherty, and (depending on his recovery from Tommy John surgery) Reyes are all expected to play roles on the Cardinals’ staff in 2018, however, and pitching depth will be necessary given Adam Wainwright’s struggles and Lance Lynn’s likely departure in free agency. The Cards could deal a young starter and then acquire a veteran via trade or free agency as a replacement, though that could require another sizeable financial commitment, which the club could be hesitant to make if it did land Stanton (even with Miami eating part of the contract).
Despite Stanton’s huge production last year, it seems inevitable that the Marlins will have to cover some of the money owed in order to make a deal happen. “Three different general managers of profitable market teams” tell Gammons that Stanton wouldn’t be claimed if he were to suddenly be placed on waivers, due to the financial commitment required to sign him.
The Red Sox have also been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Stanton, though Gammons finds it “unlikely” that the slugger would approve a deal to Boston — to this end, the Sox haven’t reached out to Joel Wolfe, Stanton’s agent. It has been rumored that Stanton, a California native, wouldn’t approve of a trade that would keep him on the east coast, though his only stated priority is avoiding another rebuilding situation. As Gammons notes, the Red Sox also can’t match the Cardinals when it comes to young pitching prospects that are close to MLB readiness.
Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals
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With an extra-inning loss to the division rival Cubs on September 28th, the St. Louis Cardinals were eliminated from postseason contention, marking the first time the club has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2007-2008. However, the future of the organization looks bright. An invasion of talent from the minor leagues came up this season to support a core of proven veterans, and the continued development of that fresh crop of talent alone will probably help the team take a step forward. The Cardinals have a deep roster and a bit of wiggle room in their payroll to fill in the gaps, including a potential big one in the rotation should free agent starter Lance Lynn decide to sign elsewhere.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Adam Wainwright, SP: $19MM through 2018
- Dexter Fowler, OF: $66MM through 2021
- Yadier Molina, C: $60MM through 2020
- Matt Carpenter, 1B: $28.5MM through 2019 ($18.5MM option for 2020, $2MM buyout)
- Brett Cecil, RP: $22.75MM through 2020
- Jedd Gyorko, 3B: $22MM through 2019 ($13MM option for 2020, $1MM buyout)
- Carlos Martinez, SP: $46MM through 2021 ($17MM option for 2022, $500k buyout/$18MM option for 2023, $500k buyout)
- Kolten Wong, 2B: $20.75MM through 2020 ($12.5MM option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
- Stephen Piscotty, OF: $29.5MM through 2022 ($12.5MM option for 2023, $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)
- Trevor Rosenthal (5.058) – $7.9MM
- Michael Wacha (4.062) – $5.9MM
- Tyler Lyons (3.070) – $1.3MM
- Randal Grichuk (3.034) – $2.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Rosenthal
Free Agents
[Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information]
While many were surprised at the Cardinals’ pessimistic preseason PECOTA projection, the club ended up finishing 83-79, good for third in the NL Central. But the team scored 761 runs while allowing 705, putting their pythagorean record at 87-75. If this record is a better reflection of the club’s true talent, then it’s easy to imagine that the Cardinals only need a little retooling to make it back to the playoffs in 2018. They have an astonishingly deep MLB roster, and equally impressive vertical depth in the upper minors.
That’s good news for manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals’ front office… the club hasn’t missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since before the turn of the century. The expectations of St. Louis fans are always high, and there’s probably at least some pressure not to disappoint them for a third consecutive year.
After firing pitching coach Derek Lilliquist and bullpen coach Blake Ilsley, the Cardinals hired Mike Maddux to be their new pitching coach. The Redbirds were said to be seeking a “more modern approach to starter usage and bullpen deployment“, and ultimately landed on Maddux after considering many potential candidates. They’ll hope his 15 years of experience can help get the most out of their young set of hurlers.
One question facing the Cardinals is whether or not they ought to bring back Lance Lynn. They’ll first need to decide whether or not to give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $17.4MM this year. Lynn’s 4.82 FIP and 10.1% walk rate in 2017 were both career highs, while his 19.7% strikeout rate was a career low. Part of that could possibly be attributed to Lynn losing a full mile per hour on his fastball after missing all of 2016 due to a torn UCL and resulting Tommy John surgery. However, his actual results (3.43 ERA across 186 1/3 innings) were typically strong, and Lynn has a great track record of success in the majors. From 2012 through 2015, the right-hander posted a 60-38 record and was worth 13 fWAR, never pitching fewer than 175 innings.
Since the Cardinals did not receive revenue sharing in 2017, they wouldn’t be eligible to receive a compensatory pick after the first round under MLB’s new qualifying offer system if Lynn declines a QO. Instead, they’d receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the draft’s second round. Regardless, Lynn’s earning power is likely to be far more than $17.4MM in total guarantees, so the likelihood that he’ll decline a QO should be incentive enough for the Cards to offer him one and acquire the draft pick (and corresponding bonus pool money).
Beyond that, it doesn’t seem as though the Cardinals have all that much interest in bringing Lynn back. He’s rumored to be seeking a Jordan Zimmerman-sized deal, which seems a bit outlandish and certainly more than the Cardinals are willing to pay for him. Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright will occupy three spots in the rotation, and beyond that the Cardinals would probably like to see what they have in Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty rather than take a risk on a 30 year-old who’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Speaking of which, highly regarded young rightyAlex Reyes will return from his own Tommy John surgery at some point in 2018. The likelihood that he’ll return early in the year will be a factor the Cards take into consideration when addressing their rotation this offseason.
Wainwright, the longtime franchise icon, hasn’t been the same since missing most of the 2015 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. 2017 was his worst season ever, though his peripherals suggest he wasn’t quite as bad as his 5.11 ERA would indicate. Still, he missed significant time with elbow and back injuries. The four-time Cy Young vote-earner seems to no longer be a reliable rotation option, and while the club doesn’t seem interested in spending money to back Lynn, they could potentially look to dole out a one-year deal to a veteran swingman type who could pitch out of the bullpen while Wainwright is healthy. Mike Minor, Francisco Liriano and Wade Miley are potential options in that arena. It’s also possible that the Cards could sign a more reliable starter on a short-term deal, and have Weaver or Flaherty begin the season at Triple-A. However, with three high-upside arms (including Reyes) itching to prove themselves at the major league level, it’s somewhat difficult — albeit hardly impossible — to imagine the Cardinals shelling out significant dollars on a long-term contract for a top-tier or even second-tier free agent starter. If anything, they have enough prospect depth to attempt a trade for Gerrit Cole or Michael Fulmer. Still, they have the payroll space to go after Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, for example, and over the course of the offseason there are many scenarios that could leave them wanting to inquire on those names.
With Seung Hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio set to become free agents, and Trevor Rosenthal a good bet to be non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals bullpen will require some attention this offseason. Oh was mostly ineffective in 2017, but the club might seriously consider a reunion with Nicasio, who served as their closer during the final days of the season after joining the team in September. Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia, Brett Cecil, Matt Bowman, Sam Tuivailala and the hard-throwing Sandy Alcantara all pitched well during this past season and are all under contract for 2018; that group alone is a great start.
Whether the club brings back Nicasio or not, they might be interested in a free agent relief ace to close out games. They’re likely to at least inquire on Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Wade Davis. Spending big on top-tier relievers isn’t something the Cardinals have done historically, however. It’s arguably more likely they’ll give out a cheaper multi-year deal to a proven, high-upside reliever without the marquee closer price tag, like they did when they signed Brett Cecil last year. I’d expect them to be in on Bryan Shaw in particular, especially if they bring Nicasio back. Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek are some other relievers they’ll probably be in on. There are plenty of late-inning options on the trade market as well. A while back, MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd took a look at the Cardinals’ late-inning reliever situation, and explored all potential options in an in-depth MLBTR original.
The Cardinals’ position player depth chart is as deep as any you’ll see in the major leagues. Seven different St. Louis hitters accumulated at least 2 WAR in 2017, which ties the Dodgers for most in the majors. The one area that was lacking in production for the Cardinals was right field. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk were both below-average hitters in 2017 by wRC+. It’s too soon to give up on either one, especially considering they’re both just 26 and were both above-average players last season. It’s also worth noting that Piscotty is signed through 2022, so the club is committed to him in a sense.
That being said, the Cards need more overall production and could enter the offseason willing to part with some depth in favor of quality. Their right field situation could put the Cardinals in the mix for Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins. It’s been rumored that Miami could try and get out from under the remaining ten years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, and St. Louis is one of very few teams with both the prospect depth and financial resources to pay up for last year’s home run champ. I wouldn’t expect them to overpay in terms of prospects, but if Stanton does get traded, St. Louis is as good a landing spot as any. And for a contending team, he could be willing to waive his no-trade clause.
As for Ozuna, he’d come with just two years of team control, but would cost a lot more in terms of prospects. The Cardinals have two Triple-A outfielders who rank within MLB pipeline’s top 100 prospects (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader) and are seemingly blocked at the major league level for the near future. But neither seems to have the type of upside needed to bring back a hitter of Ozuna’s caliber. Their more valuable prospects (Reyes, Flaherty and catcher Carson Kelly) will all be relied upon at the major league level this season. I’d imagine that St. Louis will inquire on Ozuna, but that a trade is unlikely to materialize.
Any trade for a right fielder would make Grichuk an obvious trade candidate. Indeed, even if they don’t acquire an outside player, it would seem that the Cardinals don’t really have a need for Grichuk. Piscotty is under contract for at least the next four years, Tommy Pham was the team’s best player by WAR in 2017, while Dexter Fowler is owed $66MM through 2021. Grichuk is projected to make $2.8MM in his first trip through arbitration, and although those dollars won’t force the Cards’ hand, Bader or Magneuris Sierra would fill a fourth outfielder role at the league minimum salary. O’Neill is close to major-league ready as well.
Grichuk has solid power; he’s hit 66 home runs across 1,386 major league plate appearances. His plate discipline, however, has been the cause of multiple demotions since his first call-up in 2014. With a 30% strikeout rate for his career against just a 6% walk rate, Grichuk has mustered just a .297 OBP during his time in the majors. Still, with his power upside and impressive work with the glove, there are plenty of teams could be willing to take a chance on him.
Trading Grichuk is just one of a few routes the Cardinals could go in order to make use of a surplus of talent on their 40-man roster. The Redbirds have a surprisingly deep collection of solid talent on their expanded roster, but they might consider a number of moves aimed at consolidating that solid talent into elite talent. Though they have four players set to become free agents, they have a number of factors they’ll need to take into consideration in regards to their roster this winter.
Reyes will need to be re-added to the 40-man when he comes off the 60-day DL. While that might not seem like a big deal in and of itself, things get far more complicated when one considers that the Rule 5 Draft is fast approaching. In recent years, the Cardinals have lost high-upside players like Luis Perdomo and Allen Cordoba to the Padres. This season, they have another three players who rank within their top 20 prospects that will become vulnerable to being plucked away by another club, on the condition that they be kept on that new club’s 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season. No. 86 overall prospect O’Neill is a sure bet to claim a spot, while lefty Austin Gomber and outfielder Oscar Mercado might be deemed worthy of protection as well.
So St. Louis faces a tough set of questions in regards to their expanded roster. If they add all four of the above youngsters to the 40-man, those players would take the roster spots of all four of their outgoing free agents. At that point, they’d need to begin designating a player for assignment with each free agent signing they make this winter. If they don’t add Gomber or Mercado, they risk losing either or both for a paltry $50K apiece. So we certainly shouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals end up trading multiple prospects for a single talented major league player early in the offseason, or even if they end up trading someone like Grichuk or Aledmys Diaz for minor league talent.
In recent seasons, the Cardinals have given out long-term contract extensions to young core players. Before the 2017 season, they extended both Martinez and Piscotty. The year prior, they gave second baseman Kolten Wong a contract extension. Going into 2018, there aren’t many players that fit the bill for this type of deal. Tommy Pham would seem like an obvious candidate at first glance, but he’s already 29, so the club might be better served to ride his contract out through arbitration. Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez performed well in 2017, but both have less than a full season’s worth of MLB experience; there’s no rush to lock either player up. The best extension candidate for St. Louis might be right-handed starter Michael Wacha, if they think he has turned a corner, although it’s worth noting that Tyler Lyons could get a consideration as a breakout lefty reliever.
The offseason path for the Cardinals will be one of the most difficult to predict in all of Major League Baseball. They don’t have any glaring holes on their roster, but they’re in need of some upgrades overall. They could make those upgrades in a number of different places and have the resources in payroll space, prospect depth and major league talent necessary to get something done. Count on a busy winter for the front office in St. Louis.
Cardinals Casting Wide Net In Closer Search
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has posted highlights from a lengthy, comprehensive chat on the Cardinals and their offseason plans. There are more than a dozen interesting scenarios covered within, including the team’s search for a closer, the need to add a known quantity to the middle of the lineup and the possibility (or lack thereof) various players currently on the roster will be moved. Goold notes that the Cardinals have had interest in Brandon Morrow on multiple occasions in the past and notes that he could well be a target if the Cardinals ultimately decide to pursue multiple arms and have a competition for the ninth inning next spring. He also adds that St. Louis will likely pursue top-end closers (e.g. Wade Davis, Greg Holland), though the Cards will have obvious competition on that front. Any who track the offseason closely, especially fans of the Cardinals or other clubs in the NL Central, will want to take a full look for some insight into the Redbirds’ upcoming plans.
Cardinals To Name Mike Maddux Pitching Coach
The Cardinals are set to hire veteran pitching coach Mike Maddux to replace Derek Lilliquist, who was let go after the season, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (on Twitter). Maddux has spent the past two seasons as Dusty Baker’s pitching coach with the Nationals but was not renewed after his two-year contract with the Nationals expired.
Maddux, 56, has been a big league pitching coach dating back to the 2003 season. He spent six seasons in that role with the Brewers (2003-08) before moving on to occupy that position with the Rangers (2009-15) and Nationals (2016-17). The older brother of Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, Mike has developed a reputation as one of baseball’s best pitching minds after a successful 15-year playing career and now another 15 years as a big league pitching coach.
Cardinals Add Jose Oquendo, Willie McGee To Coaching Staff
The Cardinals have announced some notable coaching-staff changes, with two familiar names slated to don the team’s uniform once more. Jose Oquendo will return to his former job as the third base coach, while McGee will take an as-yet unidentified role on manager Mike Matheny’s staff.
There are clearly some other moving pieces here, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers them all (see here and here). The Cards bumped Mike Shildt from third-base to bench coach. (Last season’s bench coach, David Bell, left for a player development job with the Giants.) The club is still looking for new coaches to handle the organization’s pitching staff.
Oquendo had been a key figure on the MLB staff, but left his post after requiring knee surgery. He had remained with the organization, though, and evidently now feels up to the task once again. Now 54, Oquendo played with the Cardinals for a decade. Primarily a middle infielder, he appeared at literally every position on the field during his career (including catching one frame and pitching six). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak obviously saw it as a priority to get Oquendo back into the team’s staff; as Goold explains, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker went with Matheny recently to engineer Oquendo’s return.
While McGee’s specific duties aren’t yet clear, the indication is that the Cards won’t build silos with the staff. No matter his formal title, the legendarily fleet-footed former big leaguer will “work with outfielders on their defense and all players with their baserunning,” Goold writes. McGee, who spent the bulk of his 18 MLB campaigns in St. Louis, has previously functioned as a special assistant with the organization. Those interested in reading more about McGee’s hiring should read this discussion and interview from the Dispatch’s Rick Hummel.
Cardinals Have Engaged With Jim Hickey
- The pitching coach carousel seems to be a particular area to watch in the coaching ranks this offseason, with Jim Hickey among the notable names on the market. Per MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, via Twitter, the former Rays pitching coach held a chat with the Cubs today. He has also already engaged with the Giants and Cardinals, she notes.
Latest On Cardinals' Pitching Coach Possibilities
- Former Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey has already interviewed for jobs with the Cardinals and Red Sox, and he’ll meet with the Cubs on Monday, according to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link). The Cubs are in need of a pitching coach after firing Chris Bosio on Saturday. If Hickey takes over for Bosio, he’ll reunite with Cubs manager and former Rays skipper Joe Maddon, who was Hickey’s boss in Tampa Bay from 2007-14. Hickey and Maddon remain close, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com.
- Along with Hickey, the Cardinals have identified their Triple-A pitching coach, Bryan Eversgerd, and Royals assistant to the general manager Cal Eldred as potential candidates for their major league opening, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Eversgerd could become the Redbirds’ bullpen coach if he doesn’t end up as their pitching coach, Goold writes. The Cardinals have been on the lookout for pitching and bullpen coaches since letting go of Derek Lilliquist and Blaise Ilsley, respectively, after the season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is looking for “a more modern approach” than before and plans to hire a pitching coach or coordinator who’s fluent in advanced analytics, Goold relays. Notably, Mozeliak has spoken with former Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter about taking a job, but he’s only interested in a part-time position with the organization, Goold relays.
Cardinals Interested In Jim Hickey
- The Cubs’ firing of pitching coach Chris Bosio on Saturday was manager Joe Maddon’s decision, Paul Sullivan and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune report. Maddon’s relationship with Bosio deteriorated as the season progressed, per Sullivan and Gonzales, who add that Mike Maddux and the previously reported Jim Hickey are candidates to serve as the Cubs’ next pitching coach. Maddux was the Nationals’ pitching coach over the past two years, but his time with the club ended with manager Dusty Baker’s exit. Hickey, meanwhile, is also on the Cardinals’ radar, according to Sullivan and Gonzales.
