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Caleb Kilian To Miss Several Months Due To Teres Major Strain

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Cubs manager Craig Counsell provided members of the media, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, updates on some injured players. Right-hander Caleb Kilian has a teres major strain and will be out for a while, probably not back in game action until around the All-Star break. Infielder Nick Madrigal has a mild right hamstring strain, with his prognosis a bit less clear at the moment. “We’re going to progress him over the next week, and then we’ll have a good idea where we’re at,” Counsell said of Madrigal.

Kilian, 27 in June, came over to the Cubs in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Kris Bryant to the Giants. He was added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster in June of 2022 but has spent most of his time since then on optional assignment. He’s only tossed 16 2/3 major league innings so far, having allowed 23 earned runs in that time.

His results in the minors have naturally been better. He has thrown 231 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years, with an earned run average of 4.36. He struck out 22.1% of batters faced in that time, gave out walks at a 9.5% clip and got grounders on roughly half the balls in play he allowed.

The righty would have been in competition for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Four starting jobs are accounted for between Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon, with the final spot up for grabs between guys like Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Porter Hodge.

Kilian would have been in that battle and, even if he didn’t win the gig, he would have been in Triple-A looking to earn the first call-up when a need arose. But he was experiencing some discomfort and underwent an MRI yesterday, which revealed the bad news. He’ll now be out of action for the next few months and won’t be available to the club until the second half of the season, most likely.

As for Madrigal, he also came into camp fighting for a job. The Cubs have a fairly open competition for time at third base, with Madrigal in the mix alongside Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel, as well as a few others. Madrigal’s current injury doesn’t appear to be severe, but if it lingers into the start of the season, it could open up more playing time for Wisdom or Morel until Madrigal is back to full strength.

Madrigal is a hit-over-power guy who has just four home runs in his 846 major league plate appearances. His 4.6% walk rate is also very low but his tiny 8.9% strikeout rate demonstrates he is one of the toughest hitters in the league to punch out. His career batting line of .280/.328/.354 translates to a wRC+ of 90, indicating he’s been about 10% below league average overall. Last year was his first season playing third base at the big league level, moving from his customary second base spot, but he seems to have made the move swimmingly. He was worth eight Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 560 1/3 innings at the hot corner.

Wisdom and Morel have the opposite profile, as both of them are high-power, high-strikeout bats with questionable defense. The club doesn’t have a true designated hitter, so perhaps they could have used Madrigal at third while deploying one of Morel or Wisdom as the DH, but that won’t be an option if Madrigal misses some time.

Cubs Notes: Tauchman, Imanaga, Taillon

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Cubs outfielder Mike Tauchman has had plenty of uncertainty in his career. He’s bounced around from the Rockies to the Yankees and Giants, spent 2022 with the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO League and settled for a minor league deal with the Cubs going into 2023. But in 2024, he seems to have a bit more clarity on the path ahead of him. He tells Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times that manager Craig Counsell told him at the start of Spring Training that he has already made the team.

‘‘From a personal standpoint, [it’s] given me a little freedom to trial-and-error a couple of things, rather than really focusing on the results, focusing on ‘making the team,’ ’’ Tauchman said. ‘‘Because now it’s about getting ready for March 28 and the subsequent games that we have.’’

Tauchman, now 33, got added to the Cubs’ roster last year when Cody Bellinger was injured but played well enough to stick around even when Bellinger returned. He got into 108 games, drawing a walk in 14% of his 401 plate appearances. His home run total of eight was fairly modest but he was on-base enough to be above average at the plate overall. His .252/.363/.377 slash line translated to a wRC+ of 107. He also stole seven bases and got strong grades for his time on the grass, most of which was in center field. In 584 innings in center, he produced three Defensive Runs Saved and got a +1 from Outs Above Average.

That solid showing was enough for the Cubs to tender him an arbitration contract, with the two sides eventually agreeing to a $1.95MM salary. For part of this offseason, Tauchman may have been seen as the on-paper center fielder between Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ. Prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong would have been another option but he’s considered a glove-first player, is still shy of his 22nd birthday and has just 47 games played above Double-A.

The Cubs recently re-signed Bellinger and he figures to take the center field job. He also plays first base but it seems like the Cubs will give Michael Busch a chance to take that spot. That will likely leave Tauchman in a fourth outfielder role while Crow-Armstrong gets regular reps in Triple-A. An injury could always change things, with Happ currently dealing with a mild hamstring strain, but Tauchman seems to have a refreshingly secure gig for the time being.

Elsewhere in Cubs’ tidbits, the rotation figures to be an area of focus this year as the club looks to take a step forward after just missing the playoffs last year. Collectively, Cub starters had a 4.26 ERA last year which put them 14th in the majors. Since the club is going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster, improvement in the rotation could be a difference maker.

Marcus Stroman departed via free agency and the club signed Shota Imanaga to take his spot. Imanaga will be looking to make the transition from Japan, where pitchers often throw once a week, to the five-day cycle in North America.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score relays that the club plans on using off-days and spot starters to help him with the adjustment, which could perhaps lead to some extra starts for optionable depth arms. The club figures to have Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon and Imanaga in four rotation spots, with one more spot available to Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian or Ben Brown.

Everyone in that latter group has options and may start the season in the minors but it sounds like there will be opportunities to make big league appearances as the season rolls along. The occasional spot start will be used to give Imanaga and the other guys a breather and injuries are fairly inevitable for pitchers, which will open other chances.

Taillon will be looking for a bounceback season, as his first campaign with the Cubs wasn’t strong, finishing with a 4.84 ERA. That potential bounceback season is off to a bumpy start, however, as Lee reports that Taillon is dealing with some soreness in both of his calves. That issue doesn’t seem debilitating and he still appears to be on track for Opening Day if he doesn’t experience any setbacks, but it’s a situation worth monitoring over the weeks to come since a return to form for Taillon will be important for the Cubs this year.

Ian Happ Sidelined With Mild Hamstring Strain

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Cubs left fielder Ian Happ won’t be appearing in games for the time being after he suffered a mild hamstring strain during a game earlier this week, club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Counsell added that the club remains “optimistic” that Happ will be ready for Opening Day, though he added that the 29-year-old will need to get additional reps in before Spring Training comes to a close in order to be ready for the start of the season.

The ninth-overall pick in the 2015 draft, Happ is entering the first year of the three-year, $61MM extension he inked with the Cubs early last season. The switch-hitter has settled in to become one of the club’s most reliable regulars in recent seasons, slashing a solid .259/.351/.435 (119 wRC+) across the past two seasons while earning his first career All Star appearance during the 2022 season and back-to-back Gold Glove awards in left field. In 2023, Happ posted a career-best 22.1% strikeout rate while walking at an impressive 14.3% clip. That strong plate discipline has left Happ as a key piece of the club’s core entering the 2023 season alongside the likes of Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner.

Losing Happ for any amount of time entering the regular season would surely be a blow to the Cubs, though Chicago has plenty of other options for its outfield mix available should their longest-tenured hitter start the season on the shelf. With top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong expected to begin the season at the Triple-A level, the likes of Mike Tauchman and Alexander Canario figure to be the most likely options for a reserve outfield spot with the big league club to open the season currently on the 40-man roster. Veteran left fielder David Peralta is also in camp with the club after signing on a minor league deal last month, with slugging prospect Owen Caissie also among the club’s non-roster invitees.

MLBTR Podcast: How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Cubs re-signing Cody Bellinger (1:40)
  • How did he end up with a short-term deal? (3:35)
  • Why would he not take a deal of around six years, $150MM? (5:00)
  • Was this about Bellinger’s Statcast metrics? (8:00)
  • Would Bellinger have gotten a megadeal in a different winter? (11:15)
  • Is there a gulf widening between what superstars can make and what mid-market players can make? (15:55)
  • How does the Bellinger deal affect expectations for the other Boras guys? (19:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • We have some brand-name starting pitchers who will be signing contracts after Spring Training games have begun. Historically, how have previous late signings fared after starting their seasons so late? (27:00)
  • Does the Aaron Nola deal look terrible in hindsight? In my opinion, he’s not as good as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and Nola got more than every pitcher except for the Dodgers’ guys. Do the Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodríguez deals look smarter than Nola’s too? (30:30)
  • What is the feeling around Juan Soto and where he might be in 2025? I feel like he’s gonna stick with the Yankees but everyone seems to think it’s a one-year location for him. (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities

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Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.

There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.

Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:

While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.

The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.

Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.

The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.

Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.

Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.

That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.

——————————

The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.

Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.

The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.

Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.

Boras, Hoyer Discuss Bellinger Signing

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The Cubs reintroduced Cody Bellinger at a press conference this morning. The two-time All-Star was alongside agent Scott Boras and Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to discuss his protracted free agent process (link to the full presser).

At the start of the offseason, few would’ve expected Bellinger settling for a three-year guarantee worth $80MM. His camp began the winter in search of a much larger offer, reportedly seeking upwards of $200MM. Unsurprisingly, no one confirmed the precise contract terms that Bellinger had sought, although the former MVP conceded he initially expected an extended deal.

“Yeah, I think there’s definitely that thought that goes into it,” Bellinger said when asked if he anticipated signing a long-term contract. “Ultimately, that’s the goal. … I talked to Scott continuously to see what was going on. At the end of the day, I’m super excited how it all worked out. Yes, obviously (thought about a longer deal), but I’m very excited with it all and very happy to get going.”

With the offseason nearing an end, it’s clear that teams weren’t going to meet Bellinger’s asking price on that kind of contract. At that point, he moved to the much shorter term with the ability to opt out and retest free agency in either of the next two offseasons. He’ll collect $30MM for the upcoming season. If he repeats his 2023 production, he’ll almost certainly take another swing at a massive contract — this time without a qualifying offer attached and with potentially greater confidence around the league that he has put his dismal 2021-22 campaigns behind him.

Boras suggested that Bellinger was always targeting one of those outcomes: either an especially long-term deal or a short-term pact with opt-outs. “Cody and I agreed that we’re going to look at this in a couple ways. We’re going to have two positive outcomes for this process. … Our dynamic was to determine what it was on the other end with a contract of great length. As we got through that process and looked to it, that’s certainly where we let Jed know that on something like this — with this kind of structure, with this kind of flexibility, with these kinds of things, is what we’re looking for. We had mutual agreement and understanding that this type of structure was agreeable to both of us.”

Bellinger’s youth certainly plays a part in that. He turns 29 in July, leaving open the possibility of seeking another long-term pact next winter. His camp seemed to prefer that to locking in a five- or six-year contract that would’ve guaranteed more than $80MM but wasn’t close to his initial asking price and wouldn’t have allowed him to get back to the market.

The short term with the higher annual salary works well for the Cubs. Bellinger offers cover in both center field and at first base. Chicago had been set to turn to highly-touted but unproven players in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch at those respective positions. The move pushes the Cubs to a franchise high in terms of player spending.

RosterResource calculates their 2024 payroll around $222MM. They’re at $234MM in estimated luxury tax commitments, just below the $237MM base threshold. It’s probable the Cubs will up end up paying the CBT if they’re as competitive as they hope. Even if this is their final move of the offseason, any salary taken on in midseason acquisitions counts against the CBT on a prorated basis.

Hoyer predictably declined to answer when asked if ownership was willing to pay the luxury tax. He noted that it’s his “expectation” they’ll carry this roster into the season, although he indicated the front office will stay open to opportunities. “Obviously, we’re never going to stop looking. Never put a final nail in that because things come up all the time — trades, free agents. But, it’s the 28th of February, so I think that’s the expectation, though I would never rule anything out.“

Latest On Cubs’ Bullpen Plans

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Though Spring Training is underway, this offseason business is ongoing. The Cubs just reached an agreement to bring back Cody Bellinger over the weekend, a three-year, $80MM pact with a couple of opt-outs.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic took a look at what could be next for the Cubs and suggested they may be done making notable additions, including in the bullpen. The club had been connected to right-hander Ryne Stanek last month and Sharma reports that the interest was mutual. However, Stanek’s asking price didn’t drop to the point that the Cubs felt it was worth it to bring him aboard and sacrifice some roster flexibility.

The club’s current bullpen projection doesn’t feature a lot of optionable guys. Adbert Alzolay still has one option but he emerged as the club’s closer last year and will certainly be up with the big league club. Then there’s Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, Drew Smyly and Yency Almonte, all of whom are either out of options or can’t be optioned by virtue of having more than five years of big league service time.

As Sharma points out, clubs generally like to have a couple of optionable guys in the bullpen so that fresh arms can be summoned during the season when the staff is taxed. The Cubs already have five spots taken by guys who can’t be sent down and Alzolay makes six. Stanek is a veteran with over six years of service time, meaning he wouldn’t be able to be optioned either. If they were to add him into the mix, they would have seven of their eight bullpen slots locked up.

Stanek, 32, is coming off a decent three-year run with the Astros. He made 186 appearances over that time with a 2.90 ERA and strong 27% strikeout rate, though a high walk rate of 12.2%. He got that walk rate down to 9.9% last year but his strikeout rate also fell to 23.9%. He’s arguably the best reliever still on the open market but it seems no club has been willing to meet his asking price, including the Cubs. He’s also received interest from the Mets and Red Sox this offseason.

What also might be an issue for the Cubs is the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource lists their CBT number just over $234MM, meaning they are less than $3MM from the base threshold of $237MM. Sharma reports that “there is an understanding that they’re essentially over it” due to inevitable moves that will come over the course of the season. A club’s CBT status isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so the Cubs could always change the calculus throughout the year if they want to. But perhaps they would rather stay where they are so that they have some wiggle room to assess things as the season progresses.

Cubs Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

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Cody Bellinger is back with the Cubs. Chicago officially announced his re-signing on a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday to welcome him back to the fold. Chicago cleared the necessary 40-man roster spot with this afternoon’s trade sending Bailey Horn back to the White Sox.

Bellinger, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $80MM. The deal pays him $30MM for the upcoming season. He’ll have a $30MM salary for 2025 and be paid $20MM if he remains on the contract in 2026. The deal contains an approximate $26.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes.

Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter and delivering an excellent platform campaign. In 556 trips to the plate, the 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him poised to cash in this winter with a major contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the #2 free agent in this year’s class behind only two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, predicting a 12-year, $264MM deal for the outfielder in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.

As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it became apparent a $200MM+ commitment would not be in the cards. In his recent Wednesday mailbag, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90MM deal with a pair of opt-outs. While Bellinger entered the winter with plenty of big market clubs seemingly in the running for his services including the Giants, Yankees, and Blue Jays, each pivoted in other directions throughout the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to patrol center, Juan Soto was shipped to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out on Shohei Ohtani to instead focus on smaller deals for players such as Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outside of the incumbent Cubs, though his free agency continued into Spring Training as his camp held out for a long term deal while the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in waiting out the market. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger’s services for at least the 2024 campaign on a relatively low-cost deal similar to the three-year, $105MM deal fellow Boras Corporation client Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.

A number of factors beyond his relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term deal. Excellent as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled badly while contending with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Though he managed to take the field for 900 plate appearances across the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the career .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered the 2021 season with that earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.

While Bellinger’s strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped to assuage the concerns brought on by his dismal campaigns in the prior two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals some cause for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 campaign may not be entirely sustainable. While Bellinger’s career-best batting average last season was supported by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also propped up by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his career .277 mark entering the 2023 season by more than 40 points.

That leap in good batted ball fortune came in spite of unusually low contact quality peripherals. Per Statcast, Bellinger’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, and Hard-Hit percentage were all well below average, landing in the 22nd, 27th, and 10th percentile respectively among qualified major leaguers. Taken together, those peripheral numbers left Bellinger with a roughly league average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in recent seasons and the concerning peripherals underlying his 2023 return to form, it’s not a complete shock that Bellinger would land a short-term, opt-out heavy deal that preserves flexibility rather than a lengthy deal that maximizes guarantee.

Such a contract could set Bellinger up for a much more significant payday in the future. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in his recent look at the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and, as such, may be uniquely suited for a short-term arrangement. If Bellinger can maintain a similar level of production to his 2023 rebound, he’ll be a near lock to opt out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal and return to free agency, where he would be marketing his age-29 campaign and be unimpeded by the Qualifying Offer, which the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter. Next year’s free agent class is also likely to benefit from additional certainty regarding the ongoing Diamond Sports bankruptcy, which has impacted the TV deals of some contenders such as the Rangers and Twins. Those clubs were joined in mostly standing pat by big spending clubs such as the Padres and Mets that faced exorbitant luxury tax bills last year and took this offseason as an opportunity to reset.

In the meantime, Bellinger will return to Chicago, where he immediately improves the club’s lineup and odds of contention in a crowded NL Central dramatically. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging led all Cubs hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate last year, while he ranked fourth in terms of on-base percentage. The slugger also provides a much-needed lefty bat to a lineup who complements righty hitters in the lineup such as Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner. In addition to providing the club’s lineup with potentially impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility offers the Cubs flexibility as they look to incorporate their bevy young hitters into the big league lineup on a regular basis.

Infielder Michael Busch is likely to enter the season as the club’s regular first baseman after the club acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal last month, leaving Bellinger to begin the season as the club’s everyday option in center field. With that being said, top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong lurks after making his big league debut last September and sports 80-grade defense in center field. The club’s reunion with Bellinger takes pressure off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances during his cup of coffee last fall, to immediately produce at the big league level and allows the Cubs to continue his development at Triple-A to open the year.

Should Crow-Armstrong prove himself ready to take on the everyday job in center sometime this season, Bellinger could shift to an outfield corner, first base, or even DH depending on the health and production of the rest of the lineup. One possibility for the Cubs would be either Busch or Morel establishing themselves as a capable defender at third base, allowing the other to handle DH duties. In that case, Bellinger would be able to move to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in center, though that’s just one possible option for a Cubs team that could even see 2023 first-round Matt Shaw or top corner outfield prospect Owen Caissie debut sometime this year after strong performances in Double-A last season.

The reunion with Bellinger likely serves as a capstone for an offseason that saw Chicago also land left-hander Shota Imanaga and veteran relief arm Hector Neris in free agency. Club chairman Tom Ricketts recently indicated that the club was unlikely to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold this winter, and RosterResource projects the club for a $234MM payroll in 2024 for CBT purposes, less than $3MM below the first $237MM threshold. That means a reversal of the stance would be nearly mandatory for the club to make further additions this winter, barring a trade that clears salary elsewhere on the roster.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs and Bellinger had agreed to a three-year, $80MM contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Acquire Bailey Horn From Cubs

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The White Sox and Cubs have agreed on a trade sending left-hander Bailey Horn from the Cubs to the Sox in exchange for minor league righty Matt Thompson, per announcements from both clubs. Sahadev Sharma and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Sharma reported last night that the Cubs were exploring deals to trade a pitcher off the back end of their 40-man roster, in order to open a spot for the newly re-signed Cody Bellinger.

Horn, 26, will return to the club that originally selected him in the fifth round of the 2020 draft. He pitched in the Sox’ system for a portion of the 2021 season but was traded to the Cubs in exchange for veteran reliever Ryan Tepera just over a year after being drafted. Current Sox general manager Chris Getz was the team’s farm director in 2020-21 and clearly saw plenty in Horn to like, given that he’s now reacquired the lefty.

Horn split the 2023 season between the Cubs’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, pitching to a combined 4.21 ERA in 65 innings out of the bullpen. He fanned a hearty 28.7% of his opponents but struggled with his command, issuing walks at a 12.5% clip. Baseball America ranked him 28th among Cubs farmhands this season, touting a fastball that sits 94-96 mph and a pair of potentially above-average breaking balls (a plus slider and a solid curveball). However, BA’s report also noted that Horn has a “violent arm action that yields well below-average control and significant injury risk.”

Now back with the South Siders, Horn will give the Sox a near-term option in the bullpen. He’s pitched exclusively in relief in each of the past two seasons and was only just added to the 40-man roster this offseason, meaning he has a full slate of three minor league option years remaining.

In exchange for Horn, the Cubs will receive the 23-year-old Thompson — a starting pitching prospect whom the White Sox selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. He started 27 games at the Double-A level in ’23, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 15% walk rate and 40.7% ground-ball rate. Scouting reports on Thompson tout a heater that reaches 97 mph and a potentially plus curveball, but like Horn he’s working to overcome below-average command. Baseball America tabbed him 30th among ChiSox prospects heading into the 2024 season.

Much like Horn, Thompson is a project who’s reached the upper minors but will likely need to make some refinements before earning a look at the MLB level. He’s pitched 109 and 124 innings, respectively, over the past two seasons. He could join the rotation in Double-A Tennessee or in Triple-A Iowa and will provide the Cubs with some upper-level rotation depth. The Cubs are increasingly deep in that regard, with names like Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown and Javier Assad all in the mix for their final rotation spot, and top prospect Cade Horton rapidly climbing the organizational ladder.

Cubs To Sign Garrett Cooper To Minors Deal

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The Cubs have signed veteran first baseman Garrett Cooper, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald (X link).  It is a minor league pact for Cooper, who will receive an invitation to Chicago’s big league spring camp.

The 33-year-old hit .251/.304/.419 with 17 home runs over 457 combined plate appearances with the Marlins and Padres in 2023, translating to a 96 wRC+.  Cooper made decent contact when he did make contact, though his strikeout and walk rates were below the league average.  His production picked up a bit after he was dealt to San Diego at the trade deadline, in a swap which ended Cooper’s six-year run as a Miami regular.

A down year heading into free agency was an unfortunate outcome for Cooper, who had a 117 wRC+ (from 39 homers and a .274/.350/.444 slash line) over 1273 PA for the Marlins from 2019-22 and was even an All-Star in 2022.  Injuries have long plagued Cooper and frequently kept him on the injured list, so there’s some irony that he struggled during the healthiest year of his pro career.  Apart from a minimal 10-day IL stint due to an inner ear infection, Cooper managed to stay on the field, yet in 2023 lost playing time due to a lack of production against right-handed pitching.

Cooper’s splits were pretty drastic last year, with a .904 OPS against lefties and a .666 OPS against righties.  The right-handed batter had naturally posted better numbers against southpaws over his career, though Cooper had always hit righties respectably well apart from last season and during the smaller sample size of the abbreviated 2020 campaign.

This adds up to a bit of a curious fit on the Cubs roster, given how the Cubs are still a little heavy on right-handed bats even after today’s signing of Cody Bellinger.  However, projected first base starter Michael Busch is both a lefty swinger and short on MLB experience, so adding Cooper gives Chicago some platoon depth if Bellinger ends up playing center field more regularly than first base.  There also isn’t a set option at the DH spot, if the Cubs end up giving Christopher Morel an extended look as a third baseman.  Cooper has a good deal of right field experience, though he’s a likelier to stick to first base or DH duty since he hasn’t played in the outfield since 2021.

There’s no risk for the Cubs in seeing what Cooper can provide on a minor league deal, and the obligatory opt-out provided to veteran players in minor league deals would allow both sides to part ways before the end of Spring Training if the Cubs ultimately don’t see a spot for Cooper on the Opening Day roster.  It is a little surprising that Cooper couldn’t find a guaranteed contract, yet it also speaks to the limited marketplace for first base-only players in their 30’s, and obviously Cooper’s subpar 2023 last season weighed heavier on the minds of front offices than his solid track record in previous years.

The Brewers and Red Sox were publicly linked to Cooper’s market earlier this winter, though Milwaukee’s signing of Rhys Hoskins seemed to close the door on Cooper’s chances of landing in the Badger State.  Boston’s interest in Cooper was reportedly more conditional, as the Red Sox saw Cooper as a backup plan if they couldn’t sign their preferred choice in the still-available Adam Duvall.  Speculatively, this could mean a deal between Duvall and the Red Sox could be more likely, if Boston is now a little more inclined to up its offer to Duvall with Cooper off the board.

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