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George Frazier Passes Away

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Former major league player and analyst George Frazier has passed away, according to an announcement from the Rockies. He was 68.

After playing at the University of Oklahoma, Frazier entered pro ball as a ninth-round pick of the Brewers in the 1976 draft. While still in the minor leagues, he was traded to the Cardinals in a swap that sent catcher Buck Martinez to Milwaukee. Frazier made his MLB debut with St. Louis in May 1978, eventually appearing in 14 games as a rookie. He bounced on and off the active roster for the next two seasons.

Midway through the ’81 campaign, the Cards dealt Frazier to the Yankees. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings to help the Yanks past the A’s in that year’s AL Championship Series. He was charged with a trio of losses in their World Series defeat at the hands of the Dodgers, though, allowing seven runs in 3 2/3 frames over three outings.

Frazier put that rocky World Series showing behind him to establish himself as a key reliever by the following season. He surpassed 100 innings with a sub-3.50 ERA in each of the next two years. Over the 1983-84 offseason, New York dealt him to the Indians alongside outfielder Otis Nixon for All-Star infielder Toby Harrah. Frazier didn’t spend much time in Cleveland. Before the ’84 deadline, the Indians moved him to the Cubs with Rick Sutcliffe (who’d go on to win the NL Cy Young award that year) and Ron Hassey in a blockbuster that netted Cleveland Joe Carter and Mel Hall.

The right-handed Frazier tossed 63 2/3 innings for Chicago down the stretch to help them to the NLCS. He struggled over the next couple seasons but intrigued the Twins enough that they acquired him at the 1986 trade deadline. Frazier spent a season and a half in Minnesota to wrap up his MLB playing career. The ’87 Twins went on to win the World Series; Frazier’s last MLB outing was a two-inning scoreless appearance against the Cardinals in that year’s Fall Classic.

After his playing career came to a close, Frazier embarked on a lengthy run as a broadcaster. He worked as a color analyst for the Twins for a time before joining the Rockies’ booth for the 1998 season. He’d spend nearly two decades in Colorado, calling games there through 2015.

Frazier spent upwards of four decades in the game. As a player, he pitched in 415 big league contests. He posted a career 4.20 ERA through 675 2/3 innings, striking out 449 hitters. He was credited with 35 wins, finished 193 games and picked up 29 saves. He added six playoff games with three different franchises and won a World Series to close his career.

MLBTR joins others around the game in sending condolences to Frazier’s family, friends, former teammates and loved ones.

Cubs Activate Justin Steele, Place Patrick Wisdom On 10-Day IL

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As expected, the Cubs activated Justin Steele from the 15-day injured list, as the left-hander is scheduled to start today’s game against the Orioles.  Steele will take the place of Patrick Wisdom, as Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link) reports that Wisdom is being placed on the 10-day IL due to a right wrist sprain.

Wisdom was replaced by pinch-hitter Ian Happ in the sixth inning of yesterday’s 10-3 Cubs win over Baltimore, a move that seemed like in-game strategy at the time but could have been related to Wisdom’s wrist problem.  The 31-year-old infielder also has only two hits in his last 36 plate appearances, so it is possible this wrist sprain might have occurred a while ago, and Wisdom was trying to play through the discomfort.

The recent slump has dropped Wisdom’s slash line to .196/.285/.467 for the season, with 14 homers over 208 plate appearances.  While that production still translates to a slightly above-average 102 wRC+, it continues Wisdom’s trend of being a power-centric bat who offers little beyond the long ball.  Wisdom has hit .213/.298/.465 with 67 homers over 1117 PA with Chicago since the start of the 2021 season.

Wisdom has played mostly third base this season, with a handful of appearances as first base and in both corner outfield spots.  Nick Madrigal has been seeing regular work at third base since being recalled from Triple-A a little over a week ago, and the Cubs might prefer to see what the 26-year-old Madrigal can do with more frequent playing time, which might make it tough for Wisdom to work his way back into the lineup once he returns from the IL.

Steele returns after missing only slightly more than the minimum 15 days, which is a great outcome given the ominous nature of forearm strains.  However, Steele’s strain didn’t involve any structural damage, so the southpaw was able to make a quick recovery.  Steele has been excellent in 2023, posting a 2.65 ERA over 68 innings while relying on outstanding control and one of the league’s best soft-contact rates.

Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger, Option Matt Mervis

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The Cubs reinstated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list this afternoon. Highly-touted first baseman Matt Mervis was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding transaction.

Bellinger is in the lineup tonight against Pittsburgh righty Johan Oviedo, hitting sixth and playing first base. It’s his first start there in two years. Bellinger came up as a first baseman but moved primarily to the outfield by 2019, as the Dodgers (and subsequently Chicago) wanted to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Bellinger has been a very good defensive outfielder but he’ll break back in at first base after losing nearly a month to a left knee contusion.

Manager David Ross suggested as much earlier this week. Sprinting is still causing Bellinger some issues, and while the Cubs feel he’s sufficiently healthy to return to the diamond, they’ll try to ease the stress by putting him at a less demanding position. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters yesterday the club is hopeful of getting Bellinger back in the outfield at some point but didn’t specify a timeline (relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune).

Bellinger will try to pick up where he left off before the injury. The former MVP has been enjoying something of a bounceback season in Chicago. He’s hitting .271/.343/.493 over 163 trips to the plate. That’s not peak form but far better than his results from his final two seasons in Los Angeles, largely attributable to him cutting his strikeout rate from around 27% to 19% this year.

His return displaces Mervis, who heads back to the minors for the first time since he was called up on May 5. The Duke product tore up minor league pitching in 2022 and started this season with a .286/.402/.560 showing in Triple-A. He couldn’t carry that success over in his first look at big league arms. Mervis hit .167/.242/.289 over his initial 27 MLB games, striking out in 32 of his 99 trips to the plate.

There’s little sense for the Cubs in relegating him to a bench role, as he’s still a potential key offensive piece for the organization moving forward. With Bellinger at first base and Chicago using a rotation at designated hitter — Trey Mancini, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Ian Happ have split the last five starts there — the clearest path for Mervis to get consistent reps was by sending him back to Iowa.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Stroman Lobbies for Extension, Mets’ Woes and Astros Seeking Bats

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • Marcus Stroman lobbying for an extension with the Cubs (1:40)
  • The struggling Mets lose Pete Alonso to the injured list (6:00)
  • The Astros seem more focused on getting bats than arms at the deadline (10:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Other than a pure prospect, I don’t see a difference making middle of the order bat being available at the trade deadline. Be it a 2 month rental or even someone with 1 or 2 years of control. Do you? If so please tell me about him. (14:45)
  • Could this be the year in which the O’s get a starter? They’re notoriously cheap when it comes to big contracts or giving up the farm, but I can’t see any team going deep into the playoffs with Kyle Gibson or Tyler Wells as their Game One ace. If so, who are the top candidates, knowing that the O’s will have to compete on the market with any team with a winning percentage over .500? (19:45)
  • The Cardinals are full of young players that may not be stars in the making, but probably get a fairer shot at regular playing time on many other rosters to prove their worth. If the Cards ultimately become sellers at the deadline, do they really get much value in moving guys like Iván Herrera, Juan Yepez, Luken Baker, Moises Gomez, and/or one of their outfielders? Or are they content to have that depth if the returns are minimal? (22:35)

Check out our past episodes!

Cody Bellinger Begins Minor League Rehab, Plays First Base

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Cody Bellinger made three plate appearances for Triple-A Iowa last night, marking the first game of his minor league rehab assignment.  The former NL MVP has been out of action since May 16 due to a left knee contusion, but appears to be making good progress towards returning after close to a month on the 10-day injured list.

Bellinger played first base for Iowa, which Cubs manager David Ross said (to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee and other reporters) was partially due to Bellinger still having some difficulty fully extending his knee during all-out sprinting.  Even when Bellinger returns to the Cubs lineup, Ross left the door open for the outfielder to see more time at first base, noting that “[Mike] Tauchman’s swinging the bat really well and held down center field pretty well.  So [we’re] just trying to find the best lineup whenever Belli gets back.”

First base isn’t at all an unfamiliar position for Bellinger, as he has 262 career appearances as a first baseman during his seven MLB seasons.  However, he made only four appearances at first base in 2021 and none at all in 2022.  Bellinger’s injuries and struggles late in his stint with the Dodgers obviously factored into this decreased usage, not to mention the fact that Freddie Freeman took over full-time first base duty in 2022.

But, using Bellinger at first base was also something of a waste of a strong outfield glove, as Bellinger won a Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award for his right field work in 2019, and has been an above-average defender in center field.  This glovework and strong baserunning helped Bellinger continue to earn playing time in Los Angeles even amidst his two-year funk at the plate in 2021-22.

The Dodgers opted to non-tender Bellinger this past offseason, and the Cubs inked him to a one-year deal worth $17.5MM in guaranteed money.  That includes a $5MM buyout of a $25MM mutual option, but it would seem quite unlikely that both sides would choose to exercise their option, as Bellinger was prioritizing one-year contract offers in order to return to the open market next winter with a better platform season on his resume.

Chicago’s bet on a Bellinger rebound has to some extent paid off, as prior to the month-long IL stint, Bellinger hit .271/.337/.493 with seven homers in his first 163 PA in a Cubs uniform.  The sample size is still too small to draw an overall conclusion about a bounce-back, however, and Bellinger did have only a .512 OPS in the 49 PA prior to his IL placement, so some regression might have already been at play.

There hasn’t been any indication that Bellinger’s knee problem could prevent him from returning to the outfield altogether, so the first base usage might indeed be just the Cubs’ way of getting him onto the field a bit earlier and start ramping up for his eventual return to the Major League roster.  Tauchman has also been solid (.274/.403/.323 in 78 PA) for the Cubs since his minor league contract was selected on the same day as Bellinger’s IL placement.

In the bigger picture, the 29-37 Cubs aren’t too far out of the picture in the weak NL Central, but the team might again be looking at being sellers at the trade deadline.  A 32-year-old journeyman like Tauchman probably isn’t in the Cubs’ long-term plans, so Tauchman in center field might be a preview of what Chicago’s post-deadline outfield could look like if Bellinger is dealt elsewhere.

Assuming Bellinger returns healthy and keeps hitting, he’ll be a very interesting trade chip for the Cubs to offer at the deadline, and there’s bound to be plenty of interest given how many teams explored signing Bellinger last winter.  Bellinger as a center fielder naturally has a lot more value than Bellinger as a first baseman, yet if sprinting continues to be any kind of an issue, first base is at least a fall-back position that allows him to contribute in some capacity.

Cubs Select Anthony Kay

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The Cubs have announced to reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, that they have selected the contract of left-hander Anthony Kay. Right-hander Nick Burdi was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster while righty Jeremiah Estrada was optioned to open a spot on the active roster. Earlier today, the club also placed lefty Brandon Hughes on the 15-day injured list due to left knee inflammation while recalling infielder Miles Mastrobuoni in a corresponding move, with Jordan Bastian of MLB.com among those to relay those moves.

Kay, 28, came to the Cubs in December when they claimed him off waivers from the Blue Jays. They put him back on waivers about a month later but were able to get him through, keeping him in the organization. He’s spent the year in Triple-A so far, tossing 28 innings over 23 appearances. He has a 4.50 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate and 54.4% ground ball rate.

Prior to joining the Cubs, Kay got some big league experience with the Jays. From 2019 to 2022, he got into 28 games and logged 70 2/3 innings with a 5.48 ERA. He struck out a solid 23.5% of opponents and got grounders at a 44.4% rate but walked 11.6% of batters faced.

The Cubs had been operating for a while with Hughes as their only left-handed reliever. Now that this knee inflammation will put him out of action for a while, Kay will get another shot in the big leagues as the team’s lone southpaw in the bullpen. He has one option year remaining and could be sent back to Iowa at some point while still holding onto his spot on the 40-man. He has between one and two years of service time and could be cheaply retained for future seasons if he does indeed hang onto that spot.

As for Burdi, he had his contract selected in the middle of May but then went on the injured list May 24 due to appendicitis. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, or late July.

MLBTR Poll: Will Lack Of Extension Interest From Cubs Lead To Marcus Stroman Trade?

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A little over six weeks from the trade deadline, contending clubs are beginning to identify target areas for midseason upgrades. Pitching is always in demand in the middle of the summer. D-Backs’ GM Mike Hazen has already gone on record about his desire to upgrade the staff; virtually every playoff contender surely feels they could use another arm or two.

On the rotation front, few candidates stand out more than Cubs’ righty Marcus Stroman. The sinkerballer has a $21MM player option for next season. Given his current trajectory, re-testing free agency seems the likeliest course of action. Stroman is pitching well enough he’s on pace to handily top a one-year, $21MM contract as a free agent. He’s angled publicly for an extension that’d take the opt-out off the table, though recent comments from the player cast doubt on that possibility.

Over the weekend, Stroman tweeted the Cubs currently “(weren’t) interested in exploring” an extension despite multiple attempts from his camp at Roc Nation Sports to initiate talks. He followed up in a chat with Patrick Mooney of the Athletic, saying “there’s been nothing from (the Cubs’) side. No offers, no talks, really, at all.” While there were reports that preliminary conversations had taken place during Spring Training, those evidently haven’t progressed. Stroman made clear the lack of negotiations haven’t resulted in any animosity towards the organization and stated he’s still hopeful talks will get off the ground.

“Yeah, I have no problem with them. There’s no problem. It’s just, like I said, there’s been no offer. There’s been no extension talks,” he told Mooney. “My agent and I have been very open, pretty much multiple times a month, saying, ‘Hey, let’s sit down. Let’s talk. Let’s get something done.’ There’s been nothing from their point (of view). … Yeah, I would truly love to stay a Cub. You never know how it’s going to play out. I’m also very aware of that, too. That tweet wasn’t like a shot.”

The situation has some parallels with last summer’s Willson Contreras saga. Contreras had angled publicly for an extension for months but the Cubs never seemed keen on getting a long-term deal done. Chicago wound up holding onto the catcher beyond the trade deadline but allowed him to depart in free agency, recouping a compensatory draft choice once Contreras declined a qualifying offer.

Of course, the team isn’t obligated to pursue an extension simply because the player is seeking one. Chicago wasn’t alone in having questions about Contreras’ defense. There’d similarly be risk in a long-term investment for a pitcher who recently turned 32. One can make a reasonable case for the Cubs preferring to go in different directions in both instances.

Yet the lack of extension talks raises real questions about whether Stroman will be donning a Cub uniform in August. Few viable rotation trade candidates are having as productive a season. Over 14 starts, Stroman has pitched to a 2.42 ERA across 85 2/3 innings. His 21.7% strikeout rate is narrowly a career high and almost exactly league average for a starting pitcher. Average swing-and-miss is more than enough for Stroman, who’s one of the sport’s premier ground-ball specialists at his best.

This season, the 5’7″ hurler has kept the ball on the ground 61% of the time opponents have put it in play. That’s back in line with the peak numbers he posted as an upper mid-rotation arm for the Blue Jays. Stroman’s grounder rate had dipped to a “merely” very good 50-54% range between 2019-22. It has been elite again this year, tops among the 102 starting pitchers who’ve tallied at least 50 innings.

Stroman’s arsenal isn’t much different than it was in prior seasons. He’s averaging a career-low 91.3 MPH on his sinker, while the velocity on his breaking ball and cutter aren’t much changed. He’s more consistently locating at the bottom of or below the strike zone than he had over the past few seasons, however. Hitters are having a tough time elevating the ball, diminishing the amount of damage they can do. No starter has allowed a lower slugging percentage than Stroman’s .277 mark.

Even in the absence of eye-popping whiff rates, Stroman would be an upgrade for any contender seeking starting pitching help. He’s at least better than any team’s back-of-the-rotation options and would be a strong candidate for a postseason start elsewhere.

A playoff appearance looks unlikely to come with the Cubs this year. Chicago enters play Monday carrying a 28-37 record. The dismal NL Central picture leaves them within shouting distance — they’re six and a half games behind the first-place Pirates — but they’ve dropped 24 of 38 since the start of May. They haven’t looked much better than last year’s 74-88 club. Projections from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus place their playoff chances between 8% and 14%. The season isn’t over, but the Cubs are longshot contenders as things stand.

The Chicago front office isn’t going to pull the plug yet. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said last week the team was still uncertain about its deadline direction, no surprise with a month and a half of intervening games to potentially crystalize their position (link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Selling looks likelier than buying barring a surge from the team in the next few months.

If the Cubs are reluctant to engage in extension discussions with Stroman, there’s little reason not to put him on the trade market if they fall out of contention. Whether the Cubs made the right call in holding onto Contreras last summer is debatable, but they at least weren’t left empty-handed when he departed. The QO ensured they’d receive a compensatory pick, which landed 68th overall in the upcoming amateur draft.

That fallback isn’t available in Stroman’s case. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits players from receiving multiple qualifying offers in their careers. Stroman received and accepted the QO from the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. That prevents the Cubs from making one. If Stroman tests free agency and signs elsewhere, Chicago wouldn’t get any compensation.

The player option complicates his trade status somewhat. Teams considering a Stroman deal would have to anticipate him declining and going to the open market. He’s not a true rental, though, as the option looms as a potential downside for clubs in the event his production collapses or he gets injured down the stretch. That’ll diminish the return the Cubs could’ve expected were Stroman simply in the final year of his contract. Still, there should be plenty of interest from contenders given his current form and a potentially lackluster trade market.

There aren’t many slam-dunk rotation trade candidates. The likes of Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty could wind up being available. Perhaps things eventually become dire enough for the Phillies or Padres to entertain moving Aaron Nola or Blake Snell, respectively. Eduardo Rodriguez has a tougher version of the Stroman option issue; the Detroit southpaw is guaranteed three years and $49MM beyond this season but can opt out at the end of the year. Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber are all controllable beyond 2023.

Stroman may wind up being one of the summer’s biggest names to watch. Unless the Cubs change course — either by playing well enough to get back into the postseason mix or showing a genuine interest in an extension — he figures to find his name in plenty of rumors during deadline season.

What does the MLBTR readership anticipate happening? Will Stroman still be a Cub two months from now?

(poll link for app users)

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Have Not Made Marcus Stroman An Extension Offer

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Starting pitcher Marcus Stroman has repeatedly stressed his desire to sign a long-term extension with the Cubs, even as he could reach free agency after this season on the heels of a career year. Stroman, who can opt-out of the final one year and $21MM left on his contract at season’s end, has posted a sensational 2.42 ERA (184 ERA+) through 14 starts with a 21.7% strikeout rate that would be the best of his career over a full season while also managing a fantastic 61% groundball rate. Those fantastic numbers figure to make Stroman a worthy addition to any rotation, but Chicago seems uninterested in getting a deal done at the moment. As Stroman himself relayed on Twitter that both he and his agent have made “multiple attempts” to engage the club’s front office in extension negotiations, but the Cubs were uninterested in exploring a deal for the time being.

It’s possible that the club’s hesitance has to do with their position in the standings. The club is 28-36, good for fourth place in the NL Central and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. While their weak division does provide them some semblance of hope for contention, it’s nonetheless easy to imagine the Cubs selling for the third straight deadline. If they opted to go down that path, Stroman would likely be their most attractive trade piece. In fact, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic recently identified Stroman as an ideal fit for the Giants as trade season approaches, while noting that San Francisco actually finished second in free agent bidding for Stroman’s services when he signed his current three-year, $71MM deal with Chicago prior to the 2022 campaign.

Missteps In Minor Trades Hurting The Cubs In 2023

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After ending their century-long championship drought in 2016, the Cubs struggled to maintain that level of competitiveness despite their talented roster, resulting in a massive sell-off at the 2021 trade deadline that is currently yielding promising results as the club works its way back towards contention. Though the club added quality players like Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki, and Yan Gomes ahead of the 2022 season, it was nonetheless a clear rebuilding year for the Cubs as they looked to turn the page on the previous core and begin to build around younger players like Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele.

After a surprisingly strong finish to the 2022 campaign where the club posted a 40-31 record over the season’s final ten weeks, the Cubs looked to jump-start their return to contention with a significant financial outlay over the offseason. While the club downgraded at catcher by swapping out three-time All Star Willson Contreras for Tucker Barnhart, the club shored up the rotation with multiyear deals for Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly and plugged a hole in center field by landing Cody Bellinger on a one-year deal.

Most importantly, the Cubs acquired a new face of the franchise by offering Dansby Swanson a seven-year deal worth $177MM. Early in the season, the club also extended both Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ through the end of the 2026 season, a further sign the team is committed to its current core of Swanson, Hoerner, Happ, Suzuki, and Steele. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, those deals have done little to pull the Cubs back into contention, as the team sports a 27-36 record as they sit 6.5 games out of a playoff spot while looking up at the Pirates, Brewers, and Reds in a weak NL Central division.

Still, the club has struggled to stay in the race, thanks in part to the struggles of many of those signings. Taillon has struggled through injuries and ineffectiveness in ten starts this season, Barnhart sports an OPS of just .433 and appears to have been supplanted by Miguel Amaya as Gomes’s primary backup, and the club’s offseason bullpen signings of Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer have combined for a whopping 27 earned runs in 41 innings of work.

That isn’t to say the moves president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office made this past offseason were all mistakes; in fact, many of them have proven savvy in the early going. Swanson leads the quarter of star shortstops who hit free agency over the offseason in terms of both wRC+ and fWAR this season despite signing the smallest contract of the group, Bellinger has bounced back from two difficult seasons in LA to post above-average offensive numbers for the Cubs while Smyly has proven to be a stabilizing force in the club’s rotation with a 3.27 ERA (136 ERA+) in 13 starts for the Cubs this season.

The club has faced particularly significant issues on offense, with 267 runs scored in 2023, a figure that places them tied with the Padres for fourth-worst in the NL. With Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki, and Mike Tauchman posting strong numbers in the outfield while Swanson and Hoerner have been largely successful up the middle, the biggest culprits in the club’s lack of offense are the infield corners and the DH slot. The Cubs rank 22nd in the majors in terms of wRC+ at DH, 27th at third base, and 29th at first base.

With three key spots most lineups rely on to generate offense doing so at a well below-average rate, it’s no wonder the Cubs have frustrated with offensive struggles despite significant individual successes in 2023. To make matters worse, the club shipped out a pair of players in recent years who have proven to be major assets for their current clubs and would have surely shored up Chicago’s offense had they stuck on the roster.

Prior to the 2022 campaign, the Cubs traded right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez to the Rays for minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz just months after acquiring Ramirez from Cleveland. This move paved the way for the club to roster the likes of Michael Hermosillo and Clint Frazier as the 2022 season began, though both players struggled mightily, posting wRC+ figures of 16 and 87 during their time with the Cubs, respectively. Since joining the Rays, meanwhile, Ramirez has blossomed into a phenomenal slugger, with a .298/.342/.436 slash line (125 wRC+) in 170 games while playing first base, DH, and the outfield corners.

Had the Cubs held onto Ramirez, it seems likely they wouldn’t have felt the need to sign Mancini to fill a similar role this past offseason, opening up resources that could have been used to address a bullpen that ranks bottom four in the NL with a 4.53 ERA while improving significantly on Mancini’s own 83 wRC+ in 51 games this season.

As for third base, the Cubs entered spring training this season with a trio of infielders in consideration for two Opening Day roster spots: Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Zach McKinstry. Ultimately, McKinstry was shipped to Detroit in exchange for minor league reliever Carlos Guzman. That decision has proved to be another significant mistake, as Madrigal and Mastrobuoni have combined for -0.4 fWAR for the Cubs this season, with Madrigal’s 60 wRC+ in 35 games leading the duo offensively.

McKinstry, meanwhile, has gone on to post a breakout season for the Tigers. While playing second base, third base, shortstop, and both outfield corners, the 28-year-old utility player has posted a solid .256/.360/.388 slash line in 54 games that’s good for a wRC+ of 115. Had McKinstry remained with the Cubs, he could have shored up third base alongside Patrick Wisdom, who has struggled to a .149/.253/.310 slash line since the beginning of May, while also filling in elsewhere around the diamond during stints on the injured list for regulars like Suzuki and Hoerner.

In addition to the assistance both Ramirez and McKinstry could have provided the Cubs this season, each is controllable beyond the current campaign. The duo is expected to hit free agency after the 2025 and 2027 seasons, respectively, meaning both could have be key pieces in the lineup or on the bench with Chicago for years to come.

Many of the bigger moves the Cubs have made in recent years, such as the signings of Swanson, Stroman, and Suzuki, have worked out well to this point. Despite those successes, however, missteps regarding Ramirez and McKinstry have highlighted the importance of making the right moves at the margins when attempting to return to contention. Unless Wisdom, Christopher Morel, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis can collectively provide the internal improvements necessary at the infield corners to spark the offense going forward, the Cubs figure to enter the 2023-24 offseason with improving at the infield corners at the top of their to-do list.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #6: The Cubs’ Fire Sale

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8 and No. 7. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The 2021 season marked a turning point in Cubs franchise history. Half a decade had elapsed since the team’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series run. The “dynasty” chatter that followed that seven-game victory over Cleveland never really manifested into reality. Chicago was a perennial contender, but that vaunted Cubs core never reached the World Series again and only won one game beyond the National League Division Series before the group was suddenly nearing the end of its time together.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was a sensational group of talent around which to build, but Hendricks was the only one of the bunch to put pen to paper on an extension. The group continued inching closer to free agency, and as Lester and Arrieta declined in their latter years in Chicago, some of the shine wore off. The Cubs were a good team, but year after year, the season ended with now-former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein making similar comments about how the “offense broke” or something else went wrong.

Following a 2020 season that saw the Cubs swept out of a three-game Wild Card series against the Marlins in the expanded playoff format, Epstein stepped down from his role as president and turned baseball autonomy over to Jed Hoyer. It was baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche, as Hoyer faced a series of unenviable decisions, beginning with Schwarber. Fresh off a .188/.308/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances in 2020, Schwarber was non-tendered rather than offered a raise heading into his final year of arbitration. Not four weeks later, Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres in a salary-motivated deal that has to date produced just one prospect of any note (Owen Caissie).

Decision time was only just beginning for Hoyer and his staff. The Cubs would need to determine how to proceed with the trio of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, each of whom were slated to become free agents following the 2021 season. Prior extension talks had never resulted in a deal — though Baez was reportedly quite close to signing before baseball grinded to a halt with the Covid pandemic in 2020. Chicago made one final effort to extend Rizzo that spring, but he spurned their five-year, $70MM offer (and has since banked three years and $56MM in guaranteed money with the Yankees).

The Cubs could’ve traded any of the bunch that offseason, and Bryant’s name in particular echoed throughout the rumor mill as much as it ever had. Ultimately, all three stayed put, and thus the ensuing narratives that would dominate the 2021 Cubs season were set into motion. Would any of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo stay? Was the core finally breaking up? Was this the team’s last chance?

The lackluster offseason headlined by trading the prior season’s Cy Young runner-up should’ve answered that final question on its own, but the Cubs surprised plenty of onlookers by not only fielding a competitive team but vying for first place in the division for much of the first few months. As late into the season as June 24, the Cubs were eight games over .500 and in a first-place tie for the NL Central lead with the Brewers.

A subsequent 11-game losing streak — the first of two 11-game losing streaks for that year’s Cubs — removed all doubt, however. By July 8, the Cubs were below .500, and the surging Brewers had remained hot. They held a 9.5-game lead over the second-place Reds, with Chicago and St. Louis tied for third in the division. The fire sale was coming, and virtually everyone knew it.

Rizzo was the first to go. A July 29 deal sent him to the Yankees in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24-year-old righty Alexander Vizcaino. A day later, Baez was following Rizzo out of Wrigley. Traded alongside right-hander Trevor Williams, Baez went to the Mets in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. For the next 24 hours, there were serious questions about whether a trade for Bryant would ultimately come together, but in a buzzer-beating deal, Bryant was shipped to the Giants in exchange for 21-year-old outfielder Alexander Canario and 24-year-old righty Caleb Kilian.

You can perhaps call the inclusion of Baez cheating a little bit for the purposes of this series, because Williams’ inclusion meant it wasn’t *technically* a rental. The Mets acquired two months of control over Baez and a year-plus of Williams in this swap. That extra year of control over Williams surely factored into the decision to part with Crow-Armstrong to an extent, but this was a trade about acquiring Baez first and foremost. Baez caught fire down the stretch for the Mets, too, posting a huge .299/.371/.515 slash in 186 plate appearances. The Mets still missed postseason, however, and the trade surely stings when looking at what’s become of the player they surrendered.

Fast forward less than two years, and “PCA” is regarded as one of the sport’s top outfield prospects. He’s ranked within the top-30 overall prospects in the sport on the most recent lists Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the “low” ranking on Crow-Armstrong… at No. 39 in the game. Regarded as plus-plus defender in center field with plus speed, Crow-Armstrong has opened the season with a .278/.345/.513 showing in Double-A (131 wRC+). He’s knocked eight homers, seven doubles and three of triples while going 13-for-17 in steals.

Obviously, the Cubs haven’t yet gotten any big league value out of Crow-Armstrong, but it’s rare for a team to acquire a prospect in exchange for a rental and see him almost immediately ascend to the point that he’s regarded as one of the top 15 to 30 prospects in all of baseball. If the Cubs wanted to do so — they surely don’t, to be clear — they could use Crow-Armstrong as a headline piece to acquire just about any controllable veteran who hits the market this summer or next offseason. The likelier path for PCA is that he’ll be given every opportunity to become a franchise center fielder for a still-retooling Cubs club.

There’s no nitpicking with the other two swaps in this three-for-one entry. Rizzo and Bryant were shipped out as two-month mercenaries in exchange for a quartet of prospects, although Rizzo took to the Bronx quite nicely and is now locked in as a Yankee through the 2024 season. There was plenty for the Yankees to like, as Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+) down the stretch, swatting eight homers and seven postseason doubles before tacking on another dinger in that year’s Wild Card loss to the Red Sox. In parts of three seasons as a Yankee, Rizzo is a .245/.344/.468 hitter with 51 home runs.

I doubt the Yankees regret making this swap, but it’s worked out nicely for the Cubs as well. Alcantara, now 20 years old, isn’t as highly regarded as Crow-Armstrong, but he entered the season ranked No. 91 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. He’s dropped off that list after a slow start in High-A (.250/.281/.389), but he still sits at No. 75 at FanGraphs and is generally a very well regarded prospect.

It’s worth bearing in mind that those pedestrian High-A numbers have been posted against competition that is, on average, nearly two and a half years older than Alcantara. The towering 6’6″ toolbox is also just a season removed from a much heartier .273/.360/.451 showing in Class-A, where he was nearly two years younger than the league’s average player. He’s a ways off, but like Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara has significantly elevated his stock since that 2021 trade. If the Cubs were so inclined, he too could be a significant piece in any potential deadline trade for controllable big league help. That’s not likely to happen — granted, it’s a bit more plausible with Alcantara than with Crow-Armstrong — but Alcantara has become a reasonably high-profile prospect.

That’s not the case with the now-26-year-old Vizcaino, though the circumstances surrounding his departure from baseball remain unclear. The Cubs placed Vizcaino on the restricted list in 2022  after he failed to report to spring training. He spent the entire year on the restricted list. The Cubs non-tendered him last offseason, and he didn’t sign with another team. Details surrounding Vizcaino’s abrupt departure from the game are basically nonexistent. The obvious hope is that he’s happy and healthy wherever he’s at, but it’s a disappointing outcome for the Cubs.

As for the third and final chapter of this deadline trio, Bryant proved an important pickup for the Giants. True, San Francisco would’ve made the postseason regardless, evidenced by their MLB-best 107 wins that season, but they edged out the division-rival Dodgers for that NL West crown by a margin of just one game. Bryant’s solid .262/.344/.444 slash may not have been in line with his peak form, but he contributed a meaningful presence in the Giants’ lineup down the stretch. They’d go on to fall to those same Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but not through any fault of Bryant’s. He delivered an 8-for-17 performance in the NLDS, adding a homer and a walk with only three strikeouts in 18 total trips to the plate.

Unlike with the other two trades, Cubs fans have at least gotten a look at one element of this return, although the now-26-year-old Kilian’s big league work to date hasn’t been pretty. The 6’4″ righty is still widely regarded as one of the organization’s best pitching prospects, but he’s been tagged for 20 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings through a pair of very limited auditions. He’s pitched 148 Triple-A innings as a starter over the past two seasons, logging a 4.32 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate.

Command wasn’t an issue for him prior to reaching Triple-A, but he struggled with walks last year. It’s encouraging that he’s walked just 6.8% of his opponents over his past seven Triple-A starts, pitching to a 3.09 ERA along the way, but Kilian has also plunked six hitters in that time so he’s not out of the woods with his shaky location just yet. He’s in the mix to come up and make some starts this year still, and depending on how he fares, Kilian could be a candidate for a rotation spot either later this season or in 2024.

As for Canario, he finished second among all minor leaguers with 37 home runs in 2022 and hit .252/.343/.556 across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He added 23 steals (in 26 tries) and walked at an 11% clip, though his 27.5% strikeout rate was more concerning. Baseball America calls him a potential low-average slugger with plenty of walks, above-average speed and above-average defense in right field. He hasn’t yet gotten a chance to build on last year’s breakout, as he dislocated his shoulder while playing in the Dominican Winter League.

We’re just shy of two years removed from the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, and while it’s still early to grade the overall strength of their return, things are looking promising. To trade three rental players and come away with a pair of top-100 prospects — including one who’s widely ranked in the top 25 — as well as a near-MLB starting pitcher and a strikeout-prone but prodigious slugging outfielder with power, speed and defensive upside is objectively impressive.

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the caliber of the players the Cubs were trading, but not all trades of star players result in this type of return. The Orioles have still barely gotten anything from the Manny Machado trade nearly five years after its completion. The Rangers’ trade of Darvish to the Dodgers netted them one immediate top prospect, but two years after the deal that prospect (Willie Calhoun) was already looking like a questionable big leaguer.

The tail-end of the development phase for the prospects acquired here — particularly Crow-Armstrong — will define this series of trades. But four of the five prospects acquired in this slate of trades have enhanced their stock since joining the Cubs, who now have a handful of near-MLB-ready talent and/or trade chips to show for parting with a trio of popular veterans. The 2021 trade deadline was a dark few days for Cubs fans, but there’s a good chance it’ll wind up leading to some brighter times ahead.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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