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Chris Paddack

Injury Notes: Paddack, Snell, Hill, Gallo

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It “seems more likely than not” that Blake Snell and Chris Paddack won’t pitch again for the Padres in 2021, sources tell Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  With just two weeks left in the regular season, time is running out for either pitcher to return from the 10-day injured list.  Paddack was retroactively placed on the IL on September 12 due to right elbow inflammation, while a groin strain sidelined Snell on September 15.

Snell isn’t likely to pitch again unless San Diego is still playing into the postseason, while Paddack has some smaller chance of a quicker return, as he said his elbow felt fine after a game of catch yesterday.  Still, Paddack was only throwing lightly from a 75-foot distance, so it remains to be seen if he can progress quickly enough to get back on the mound before the regular season is over.  “Regardless of how [Paddack] is feeling the Padres almost certainly won’t even consider him pitching again in 2021 if they are not squarely in contention,” Acee writes, and that latter scenario is starting to look more remote.  The reeling Padres are 5-10 in September, and have dropped 2.5 games behind the Cardinals for the last NL wild card slot.

More updates on injury situations from around the game…

  • Tigers outfielder Derek Hill had to be helped off the field via a cart and a wheelchair after suffering a knee injury in yesterday’s 4-3 win over the Rays.  Hill was trying to beat out a bunt grounder to first base, and seemed to hyper-extend his knee while colliding with Tampa first baseman Ji-Man Choi.  While Hill was still being examined by team medical staff, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press) that an IL trip seems pretty inevitable for the 25-year-old.  It seems as if Hill’s rookie season might well be over, after 49 games and 150 plate appearances that saw the 2014 first-round pick hit .259/.313/.388 with three home runs.  Injuries have been a big factor in Hill’s season, as he missed time in two separate IL stints due to a left ribcage contusion and a right shoulder sprain.
  • Joey Gallo left the Yankees’ 11-3 loss to the Indians yesterday due to neck tightness, and is day-to-day.  Gallo took one plate appearance before being replaced in left field prior to the start of the fourth inning.  Manager Aaron Boone told The Associated Press and other media that Gallo was receiving treatment on his neck before the game, and “I think after his first at-bat, it was just barking too much on him.”  While the injury seems pretty minor, the Yankees surely want one of their hottest bats back as quickly as possible to aid their pursuit of a wild card berth.  Gallo got off to a slow start after being acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, but has posted a 1.490 OPS and six home runs over his last 25 PA.

Padres Place Chris Paddack On Injured List

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The Padres announced they’ve placed starter Chris Paddack on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, due to right elbow inflammation. Shaun Anderson has been recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take his spot on the active roster.

It’s yet another injury blow for the Friars’ rotation, which has dealt with IL stints at various points of the season for everyone except Joe Musgrove. Paddack himself missed a month with a strained left oblique, and the presence of an elbow issue is perhaps even more alarming on the surface. Fortunately, manager Jayce Tingler suggested the team believes Paddack could return after missing just one start (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

Paddack has had a difficult season, pitching to a 5.07 ERA over 108 1/3 innings. He’s posted strikeout (21.6%) and ground-ball (42.9%) rates not far off the league average, though, while his 4.8% walk percentage is stellar. Paddack’s resulting 4.05 SIERA is far less unsightly than his actual ERA, as the right-hander has stranded an abnormally low 60.7% of runners that have reached base against him. With better sequencing, Paddack should be better able to keep runs off the board moving forward — assuming, of course, he returns to good health in short order.

The Padres are left to rely on Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Jake Arrieta in the starting staff. Snell left last night’s start early with adductor tightness, leaving it in question whether he’ll be able to make his next start. The Friars will continue to have to patch things together in the rotation over the next few weeks, as they battle the Reds and Cardinals (with the Phillies and Mets also lurking not far behind) for the National League’s final playoff spot.

West Injury Notes: Paddack, Gray, Ibanez, Ohtani, Astros

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Padres starter Chris Paddack appears to be ready to come off the IL to start Monday’s game in Arizona, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee says that Padres manager Jayce Tingler didn’t confirm the plan, but then later listed Paddack as Monday’s starter on Twitter.

For Paddack, his third big league season has been a disappointing one, logging an ERA of 5.13 over 93 innings. That’s a spike from last year’s 4.73 and his 3.33 mark from 2019. His strikeout rate has also gone in the wrong direction. After a solid 26.9% rate in his debut season, it dropped to 23.7% last year and sits at 22.5% so far this year. However, his walk rate has stuck around 5% in every season, which is excellent. (MLB average is 8.7% this year.)

Despite those struggles, the team has certainly missed Paddack. Since the righty went on the shelf July 31st with an oblique issue, the team has been on a disastrous slide. They’ve gone 9-15 so far in the month of August, surrendering the final National League playoff spot to Cincinnati. During that time, the rotation was missing not only Paddack, but also Yu Darvish. They tried to patch over those absences with the addition of Jake Arrieta, only to see him land on the IL himself after just one start of 3 1/3 innings. With Darvish having already returned and Paddack on the way, that could allow the team to steady the ship and finish strong, as they try to retake the Reds over the season’s final weeks.

Other notes from the west…

  • Rockies starter Jon Gray left last night’s start after 48 pitches. Manager Bud Black told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the move was precautionary and related to some forearm tightness. Nick Groke of The Athletic gets a bit more granular, explaining that the injured area appears to be away from the ulnar collateral ligament, hopefully negating the worst fears of Rockies fans. Though the extent of the injury remains to be seen, it makes sense for the club to be cautious, as they are 11 games out of a playoff spot. Gray is a free agent at year’s end, but the Rockies are reportedly hoping to sign him to an extension. They will also have to decide on whether or not to issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Gray would surely warrant the offer if he’s healthy. Over 806 2/3 career innings, Gray has an ERA of 4.52 while pitching primarily in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, producing 15.7 fWAR.
  • Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez left last night’s game with left hamstring tightness, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. She quotes Rangers manager Chris Woodward as being “not optimistic” about the injury. Regardless of the eventual severity of the injury, the club has every reason to be cautious, as they have one of the worst records in the league and no shot at contending. If this is the end of the season for Ibanez, it will go down as a solid rookie campaign for the 28-year-old. He’s hit .260/.304/.415, wRC+ of 96, while splitting time between first, second and third base, as well as one game in left field.
  • Shohei Ohtani was hit on the hand by a pitch in last night’s game, while serving as the designated hitter. However, he stuck around for the remainder of the contest and x-rays on the hand came back negative. Angels manager Jeff Madden told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that Ohtani should be fine to make his scheduled start on Tuesday. That is good news for the club and baseball fans in general, as Ohtani is having the most unique and fascinating season that baseball has seen in quite some time, if not ever. He’s currently the MLB home run leader with 41, and has an overall slash line of .264/.363/.623, producing a wRC+ of 160 which is currently bested by only two other qualified hitters. (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper) All of that is combined with Ohtani’s 105 innings in the Angels’ starting rotation with an ERA of 3.00.
  • The Astros could be getting a couple of players back this week. Jose Urquidy is pitching in a rehab game tonight, which could be his last before returning, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Urquidy has only been able to make 14 starts this season because of injuries but has been excellent when healthy, putting up an ERA of 3.38. It’s unclear who would be bumped from the rotation in his absence, but some have speculated that Luis Garcia could be an option. Garcia has already set a career high in innings pitched this year and has seen his results slip a bit recently. Since July 26th, he has an ERA of 4.22. The club has already moved another young starter, Cristian Javier, to the bullpen as a way to manage his workload. The Astros could also be welcoming Chas McCormick back later this week. General manager James Click told various reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that the outfielder could be back as soon as Friday. The club hasn’t suffered much in McCormick’s absence, given that Jake Meyers has been manning center field and has been on a tear. Since having his contract selected last month, in the first 20 games of his career, Meyers is slashing .323/.348/.523.

Padres Activate Yu Darvish

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The Padres will activate Yu Darvish to start tonight’s ballgame, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (via Twitter).

Daniel Camarena has been optioned to Triple-A to create the roster space to add Darvish, the team announced. Camarena served up the game-winning two-run shot to AJ Pollock in the 16th inning of yesterday’s marathon contest. The 28-year-old southpaw has generated more buzz for his work at the plate this season, hitting a grand slam off Max Scherzer in his first career plate appearance. He had an at-bat in last night’s game as well, but he went down swinging.

For his part, Darvish has been out since August 13th with lower back tightness. He has a 3.70 ERA/3.71 FIP in 23 starts covering 131 1/3 innings with a typically strong 29.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.7 percent walk rate, and lower than usual 36.0 percent groundball rate.

The Padres have seen their pitching depth ravaged by injuries this season. If they’re going to stay in the hunt for the second wild card game, Darvish’s healthy return would seem a likely requirement. Chris Paddack could also be on his way back after a successful three-inning simulated game, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Padres Place Fernando Tatis Jr, Chris Paddack On 10-Day IL

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11:24PM: Season-ending shoulder surgery “would be on the table” for Tatis if he doesn’t show improvement during his 10-day IL stint, Tinger told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  However, Tatis is intent on playing again this year.

6:01PM: The Padres have placed shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and right-hander Chris Paddack on the 10-day injured list.  Tatis is on the IL with left shoulder inflammation, after leaving last night’s game with a shoulder problem following a slide into third base.  Paddack has been sidelined with a left oblique strain, and his placement is retroactive to July 28.

In corresponding moves, the Padres also optioned righty Nabil Crismatt to Triple-A while calling up right-handers Miguel Diaz and Reiss Knehr, and newly-acquired outfielder Jake Marisnick was added to the active roster.

This is the second time Tatis’ bothersome left shoulder has sent him to the injured list this season, as he suffered a slight labrum tear back in early April but ended up missing only a minimal amount of time.  Tatis has since missed a couple of games with mild shoulder soreness, but Padres manager Jayce Tingler told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter links) and other reporters that Tatis’ shoulder was “more sore” in the aftermath of this injury than in his past shoulder aggravations.

According to Acee, there isn’t yet any indication that the Padres are considering shutting Tatis down in the wake of these recurring injuries.  If surgery is the only way to fully correct the problem, that would obviously sideline Tatis for the rest of this season and potentially into 2022, depending on the extent of the procedure and the severity of the shoulder damage.  The fact that Tatis has been able to bounce back multiple times this year and still produce at a superstar level provides some hope that he’ll also be able to recover from this latest setback, though it would seem to appear that Tatis will require more than just the minimum 10 days of recovery time.

There is no way to actually replace Tatis, of course, though San Diego’s acquisition of Adam Frazier last week now looks all the more important.  Jake Cronenworth can slide over to shortstop while Frazier takes over as planned at second base, but that scenario also interrupts the Padres’ initial plan — using Cronenworth at first base and Frazier as a super-utilityman around the diamond, providing cover for and depth behind Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers.  Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar are also on hand as utility options.

Losing Paddack is also no small matter for the Padres, who have been consistently hampered by rotation injuries all season.  San Diego was rumored to be looking at multiple starters prior to the trade deadline, but reliever Daniel Hudson ended up being their only new arm.  Paddack was scheduled to start on Sunday, but the Padres might now turn to Knehr or another option for tomorrow’s game.

Paddack has pitched better (3.92 SIERA) than his 5.13 ERA would indicate, though he has allowed a lot of hard contact.  Perhaps the key stat is 93 innings pitched, as Paddack has been a reliably durable member of the starting staff apart from a 10-day COVID absence early in the season.  The right-hander has a below-average strikeout rate but he has been one of the best at limiting free passes; Paddack’s walk rate is only five percent.

Padres Reinstate Chris Paddack From Injured List

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The Padres are reinstating right-hander Chris Paddack from the COVID-19 injured list to start today’s game against the Giants, the team announced. To create 40-man roster space, outfielder Jorge Oña was transferred to the 60-day IL. Oña underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery earlier this week and is expected to be out for six to eight weeks. Reliever Nabil Crismatt was optioned to clear active roster space.

Paddack went on the Covid IL on April 30, but he’ll return after just ten days away. The 25-year-old made five starts in the season’s first month, managing a 5.40 ERA/4.03 SIERA over 23 1/3 innings. It’s been a disappointing start on the heels of a similarly pedestrian 2020 season that saw Paddack work to a 4.73 ERA/3.91 SIERA in twelve starts.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for Paddack to right the ship. He boasts a mid-90’s fastball and quality changeup, and Paddack’s 6.7% walk rate is far better than average. He’s also not far removed from a 2018 season when he tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball and looked to be emerging as a high-end starter. Paddack will slide back into the star-studded San Diego rotation alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Dinelson Lamet.

Latest On Padres Rotation

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After a flurry of offseason acquisitions, the Padres entered the season with arguably one of the deepest pools of rotation candidates in the game. But just a month into the season, even the Padres are already looking at a bullpen game. Miguel Diaz will be the nominal starter today, but the 26-year-old right-hander has been working 3-4 inning stints at the Padres’ alternate site in preparation, writes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He has appeared in 47 games for the Padres going back to 2017 and only three times as a starter.

In the near term, the Padres are holding out hope that either Ryan Weathers or Dinelson Lamet will be ready to start on Tuesday, adds Acee. Said manager Jayce Tingler, “Both of them were pretty aggressive with their bullpens today and came out reporting feeling well. We think that’s a good step for both guys. We’ll see how they respond tomorrow and go from there.”

Lamet has made just one start his year, going two scoreless before being removed because of forearm soreness. Weathers, 21, was the youngest starting pitcher in baseball, and he’d been nothing short of brilliant before leaving his last start with arm soreness. The young southpaw has a 0.55 ERA/3.23 FIP over 16 1/3 innings combined out of the pen and rotation.

There remains no word on Chris Paddack, who was placed on the injured list without an injury designation. Presumably, that points to something Covid-19-related (be it a positive test, close contact or self-reported symptoms). That could mean a quick turnaround for Paddack as we have seen with a few players this year, but only time will tell. If Paddack isn’t able to return shortly, the Friars hope that Lamet and Weathers could fill out the rotation. Otherwise, Diaz may be in for more than just a spot start.

Padres Place Chris Paddack On IL, Select Miguel Diaz

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The Padres have placed right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list and selected the contract of fellow righty Miguel Diaz, the team announced.

“I can’t really disclose a lot of information,” manager Jayce Tingler said of Paddack’s IL placement (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

Tingler’s comment suggests Paddack is out for reasons related to COVID-19. Regardless, he’s the latest Padres starter to go on the shelf in the past couple weeks, joining righty Dinelson Lamet (forearm) and lefty Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery).

Paddack was a standout for the Padres in his debut campaign, 2019, but hasn’t been able to match his rookie production over the past season-plus. The 25-year-old hasn’t lasted more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his five starts this season, and across 23 1/3 overall frames, he has recorded a disappointing 5.40 ERA. However, some of Paddack’s other numbers – including a 3.22 FIP, a 3.66 xFIP, a 3.98 SIERA and a 6.7 percent walk rate – have been much more favorable.

Diaz, 26, appeared with the Padres in each season from 2017-19, but he could only muster a 6.61 ERA during that 66 2/3-inning stretch. The Padres non-tendered Diaz heading into the 2020 season, but they quickly brought him back on a minor league contract. They re-signed him to another minors deal prior to this season.

When The Padres Fleeced The Marlins

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s tenure atop the club’s baseball department certainly hasn’t been a smash success. The Padres hired him late in the 2014 season and haven’t even posted a .500 season since then. To Preller’s credit, though, the Padres have put together an enticing group of young talent with his help. And in one of Preller’s greatest moves to date, the Padres acquired a right-hander who has evolved into a potential ace in exchange for a fading reliever.

If we go back to June 30, 2016, shortly before the trade deadline, the Padres were well under .500 and on their way to a 68-win season. Meanwhile, the Marlins were 41-38. The long-suffering Fish were under the impression they were playoff contenders at that point. As a result, they traded young right-hander Chris Paddack to the Padres for grizzled reliever Fernando Rodney. Big mistake.

After signing for a guaranteed $2MM in the prior offseason, Fernando enjoyed an unbelievable few months in San Diego, where he recorded an almost perfect 0.31 ERA in 28 2/3 innings and converted 17 saves in as many chances. Unsurprisingly, those numbers proved to be impossible to sustain in Miami. As a member of the Marlins, Rodney logged a ghastly 5.89 ERA (thanks in part to 25 walks in just 36 2/3 innings) and blew three of 11 save opportunities. For their part, the Marlins floundered after the trade en route to a 79-82 finish and yet another non-playoff showing. They lost Rodney to the Diamondbacks via free agency in the ensuing offseason.

In hindsight, the Rodney gamble clearly wasn’t worth it for Miami. On the other side, selling high on him has already paid dividends for San Diego and looks as if it will go down as one of the franchise’s top trades in recent memory. In return for Rodney, the Padres received Paddack, then a low minors prospect who Keith Law of The Athletic (then with ESPN) noted when the swap occurred “hasn’t given up a hit in forever.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed that “it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.”

Paddack’s production was indeed ridiculous that year, during which he managed a 0.85 ERA with 15.1 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings between the Marlins’ and Padres’ Single-A teams. However, despite those numbers and the aforementioned praise, he wasn’t necessarily viewed as a can’t-miss prospect at the time of the trade. When the deal went down, MLB.com ranked Paddack 17th in a Marlins farm that was not particularly respected.

In August of the year that the trade occurred, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery. The procedure wound up costing him all of 2017, but he returned the next season to dominate at the High-A and Double-A levels. That was enough to convince the Padres that Paddack was ready for major league action in 2019, and indeed he was. As a 23-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time, the fiery Paddack tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP ball with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 to emerge as one of the brightest up-and-comers in baseball.

For Preller, another 2016 trade – one in which he gave up James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. – looks like his most successful move so far. But Paddack for Rodney comes off as a masterstroke in its own right. With Paddack atop their current rotation, and with excellent prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino closing in on the majors, the Padres’ long-term rotation picture appears to be in enviable shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Not Playing At Top Of Free Agent Market

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The Padres, along with the Braves, have thus far born the brunt of the burden in stoking the hot stove fire, but San Diego doesn’t anticipate being players at the top of the free agent market, per The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Given the enormity of the task ahead of them – dethroning the Dodgers from their perch atop the NL West – it was natural to assume GM A.J. Preller might go for the hat trick and score another big ticket free agent. Plus, hometown kid and confirmed playoff ace Stephen Strasburg is taking meetings, and the Padres could use a slide-stopping ace to stabilize their young rotation. But alas, the Padres don’t plan on meeting Scott Boras about either Gerrit Cole or Strasburg.

Two nine-figure free agents and the promotions of top prospects like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could not stop the string of losing season for the Padres in 2019. They stretched their streak to nine while reaching 90 losses for the fourth consecutive year. The good news for Padres fans is that even though they don’t plan on attracting another top tier free agent – help is on the way. Per Acee’s sources, Preller doesn’t feel compelled to sign a top free agent ace is because he is confident in their ability to grow them from the ground up. Both MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino have the potential to join Paddack atop the rotation in the next couple years.

Gore, 21 by Opening Day, made five starts in Double-A after blistering High-A with a 1.02 ERA in 79 1/3 innings. That’s not a typo. The young southpaw gave up just 36 hits, 20 walks, and 9 earned runs while playing for the Lake Elsinore Storm. He struck out 110 batters, good for 12.5 K/9. He is baseball’s 4th best prospect per Baseball America and MLB.com, #5 by Fangraphs.

Patino ranks as the 30th best prospect in the sport by MLB.com, 26th by Fangraphs, 29th by Baseball America. Though eight months younger than Gore, they’re on the same development track as of now. Patino registered a 2.69 ERA in High-A while little more than four years younger than league average.

Needless to say, the future is bright in San Diego, but there are pressing concerns for the present still on the docket. Preller is on the lookout for at least one reliever, potentially a starting catcher, while adding another rotation arm remains in the mix. Financially, it’s tight. They may look to shed some salary in the coming days. The payroll has already climbed north of $140MM. Per Cot’s Contracts, they ran a $97MM payroll on Opening Day last year and only once have they opened a season with a payroll over $100MM (2015).

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