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When The Padres Fleeced The Marlins

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s tenure atop the club’s baseball department certainly hasn’t been a smash success. The Padres hired him late in the 2014 season and haven’t even posted a .500 season since then. To Preller’s credit, though, the Padres have put together an enticing group of young talent with his help. And in one of Preller’s greatest moves to date, the Padres acquired a right-hander who has evolved into a potential ace in exchange for a fading reliever.

If we go back to June 30, 2016, shortly before the trade deadline, the Padres were well under .500 and on their way to a 68-win season. Meanwhile, the Marlins were 41-38. The long-suffering Fish were under the impression they were playoff contenders at that point. As a result, they traded young right-hander Chris Paddack to the Padres for grizzled reliever Fernando Rodney. Big mistake.

After signing for a guaranteed $2MM in the prior offseason, Fernando enjoyed an unbelievable few months in San Diego, where he recorded an almost perfect 0.31 ERA in 28 2/3 innings and converted 17 saves in as many chances. Unsurprisingly, those numbers proved to be impossible to sustain in Miami. As a member of the Marlins, Rodney logged a ghastly 5.89 ERA (thanks in part to 25 walks in just 36 2/3 innings) and blew three of 11 save opportunities. For their part, the Marlins floundered after the trade en route to a 79-82 finish and yet another non-playoff showing. They lost Rodney to the Diamondbacks via free agency in the ensuing offseason.

In hindsight, the Rodney gamble clearly wasn’t worth it for Miami. On the other side, selling high on him has already paid dividends for San Diego and looks as if it will go down as one of the franchise’s top trades in recent memory. In return for Rodney, the Padres received Paddack, then a low minors prospect who Keith Law of The Athletic (then with ESPN) noted when the swap occurred “hasn’t given up a hit in forever.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed that “it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.”

Paddack’s production was indeed ridiculous that year, during which he managed a 0.85 ERA with 15.1 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings between the Marlins’ and Padres’ Single-A teams. However, despite those numbers and the aforementioned praise, he wasn’t necessarily viewed as a can’t-miss prospect at the time of the trade. When the deal went down, MLB.com ranked Paddack 17th in a Marlins farm that was not particularly respected.

In August of the year that the trade occurred, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery. The procedure wound up costing him all of 2017, but he returned the next season to dominate at the High-A and Double-A levels. That was enough to convince the Padres that Paddack was ready for major league action in 2019, and indeed he was. As a 23-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time, the fiery Paddack tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP ball with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 to emerge as one of the brightest up-and-comers in baseball.

For Preller, another 2016 trade – one in which he gave up James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. – looks like his most successful move so far. But Paddack for Rodney comes off as a masterstroke in its own right. With Paddack atop their current rotation, and with excellent prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino closing in on the majors, the Padres’ long-term rotation picture appears to be in enviable shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Not Playing At Top Of Free Agent Market

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The Padres, along with the Braves, have thus far born the brunt of the burden in stoking the hot stove fire, but San Diego doesn’t anticipate being players at the top of the free agent market, per The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Given the enormity of the task ahead of them – dethroning the Dodgers from their perch atop the NL West – it was natural to assume GM A.J. Preller might go for the hat trick and score another big ticket free agent. Plus, hometown kid and confirmed playoff ace Stephen Strasburg is taking meetings, and the Padres could use a slide-stopping ace to stabilize their young rotation. But alas, the Padres don’t plan on meeting Scott Boras about either Gerrit Cole or Strasburg.

Two nine-figure free agents and the promotions of top prospects like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could not stop the string of losing season for the Padres in 2019. They stretched their streak to nine while reaching 90 losses for the fourth consecutive year. The good news for Padres fans is that even though they don’t plan on attracting another top tier free agent – help is on the way. Per Acee’s sources, Preller doesn’t feel compelled to sign a top free agent ace is because he is confident in their ability to grow them from the ground up. Both MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino have the potential to join Paddack atop the rotation in the next couple years.

Gore, 21 by Opening Day, made five starts in Double-A after blistering High-A with a 1.02 ERA in 79 1/3 innings. That’s not a typo. The young southpaw gave up just 36 hits, 20 walks, and 9 earned runs while playing for the Lake Elsinore Storm. He struck out 110 batters, good for 12.5 K/9. He is baseball’s 4th best prospect per Baseball America and MLB.com, #5 by Fangraphs.

Patino ranks as the 30th best prospect in the sport by MLB.com, 26th by Fangraphs, 29th by Baseball America. Though eight months younger than Gore, they’re on the same development track as of now. Patino registered a 2.69 ERA in High-A while little more than four years younger than league average.

Needless to say, the future is bright in San Diego, but there are pressing concerns for the present still on the docket. Preller is on the lookout for at least one reliever, potentially a starting catcher, while adding another rotation arm remains in the mix. Financially, it’s tight. They may look to shed some salary in the coming days. The payroll has already climbed north of $140MM. Per Cot’s Contracts, they ran a $97MM payroll on Opening Day last year and only once have they opened a season with a payroll over $100MM (2015).

Report: Paddack, Gore Are “Virtually Untouchable” In Padres’ Trade Talks

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The Padres are more likely to upgrade their roster through trades moreso than free agency this winter, though that hardly means the Friars are open to moving just anyone.  As per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, sources both from within the Padres and on rival teams feel that Chris Paddack and top prospect MacKenzie Gore are “virtually untouchable” within the the Padres’ ranks of young arms.  Right-handed pitching prospect Luis Patino “is just slightly more available than” Paddack or Gore, meaning that San Diego seems unlikely to move any of the three best impact arms in the organization.

It’s no surprise that Paddack is off limits following his impressive rookie season, or that Gore (a consensus top-five prospect in baseball in the eyes of Baseball America, MLB.com, and Fangraphs) isn’t a trade chip.  Patino’s name isn’t as well-known as the others, though he also possesses an impressive pedigree.

An international signing out of Colombia, the 20-year-old Patino has a 2.35 ERA, 10.7 K/9, and 3.49 K/BB rate over 234 innings in pro ball.  He cracked the Double-A level last season, so it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Patino reach the majors by late in the 2020 campaign.  A converted shortstop, Patino has a fastball that usually sits in the mid-90s and has touched the 98mph threshold, while also possessing a plus slider and some very promising breaking pitches.  Fangraphs ranks Patino 26th among all minor leaguers, with BA (29th) and MLB.com (30th) not far behind on their own top-100 lists.

Interest in Patino has grown as other teams are “realizing the Padres won’t part with Gore,” Acee writes, though if Patino is almost surely staying put, trade suitors will likely turn their attention elsewhere in the organization.  To this end, there are still plenty of options available, since “any starting pitcher among [the Padres’] deep trove of highly-rated prospects and young major leaguers can be had as part of a trade package.”

Since Acee wrote over the summer that Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eric Hosmer are the only position players San Diego is unwilling to trade, that leaves basically anyone else on the organizational depth chart available as a possible trade chip.  Acee’s report came prior to the Padres’ acquisition of Taylor Trammell in the Trevor Bauer/Franmil Reyes deal, so one would imagine that the highly-touted Trammell also won’t be moved.  (And, I would suspect that after two middling seasons from Hosmer, the Padres might be at least willing to listen if another team offered to take the first baseman and his $99MM in remaining salary off San Diego’s hands.)

It leaves the Padres with no shortage of possibilities in figuring out how to upgrade their team, as the franchise enters what could be a pivotal year.  Executive chairman Ron Fowler described the club’s 70-92 season as “embarrassing,” and promised changes if the Padres didn’t improve in 2020.  This puts extra pressure on general manager A.J. Preller to finally end the Friars’ streak of nine consecutive losing seasons.

Padres To Shut Down Chris Paddack

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As expected, the Padres have brought an early end to star rookie Chris Paddack’s season. The right-hander’s start against the Brewers on Tuesday will go down as his last of the year, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

Paddack concluded his season in excellent fashion, tossing five innings of one-run, one-hit ball with nine strikeouts against a single walk in the Padres’ loss in Milwaukee. It was the fourth straight outstanding performance by the 23-year-old Paddack, who yielded a mere two earned runs and totaled 32 strikeouts versus four walks in his last four appearances – a 23 1/3-inning span.

After joining the Padres in a heist of a trade with the Marlins back in 2016, Paddack quickly rose up the ranks to become one of the game’s most coveted young arms. And though Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after switching organizations, it’s evident he’s all the way back at this point. The 2015 eighth-round pick amassed a professional-high 140 2/3 frames this year, notching a 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 in the process.

Now, with San Diego out of contention as the season winds to a close, the team understandably wants to preserve a hurler who could be a front-line starter for the long haul. The Padres’ playoff drought will sit at an embarrassing 13 years after this season, but if they’re going to return to relevance sometime soon, it seems likely Paddack will have quite a bit of say in it.

NL Notes: Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, Padres

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It’s “very unlikely” outfielder Alex Verdugo will return for the Dodgers’ National League Division Series matchup, manager Dave Roberts told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and other reporters Friday (Twitter links). The rookie originally landed on the injured list Aug. 6 with a right oblique strain, but a back injury has slowed him of late. Meantime, southpaw Rich Hill – who’s dealing with a strained left MCL – will undergo an MRI on Monday. It seems iffy at best that Hill will avoid a lengthy absence, as a strained left MCL previously shelved him for the first month of the season. The injury-prone 39-year-old then missed almost two months with a forearm problem. His start Thursday, when he recorded just two outs, was his first since June 19.

Here’s more from the National League…

  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel provided a couple injury updates Friday on the Brewers, who are now a game behind the NL’s second wild-card position (Twitter links). Top starter Brandon Woodruff is still on track to return in the next week, but it’s unclear whether he’ll start or relieve. Woodruff will throw a bullpen session Saturday as he continues working back from the oblique strain he suffered July 21. And catcher Manny Pina, out with a concussion since Sept. 5, isn’t recovering as quickly as the team hoped he would, according to manager Craig Counsell. The Brewers have “to stack some good days in a row” for Pina before he’s capable of returning, Counsell said. Milwaukee has been in fine shape behind the plate without Pina, of course, as it boasts one of the game’s elite catchers in Yasmani Grandal.
  • The Cubs promoted executive Jason McLeod to senior vice president of player personnel, which could keep him in their front office for at least a little while longer. But McLeod said this week that his goal is to run a team’s baseball department, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required). “I do aspire to someday lead an organization,” said McLeod, who has been on GM-needy clubs’ radars in the past. He interviewed for that position with the Giants last year, though they instead went on to hire Farhan Zaidi as their president of baseball operations.
  • Padres rookie Chris Paddack will make at least one more start this season, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets. Shutting Paddack down for the year looked like a possibility after he threw six scoreless innings against the Cubs on Wednesday. The rookie standout, 23, has now racked up 135 2/3 innings this season, easily surpassing the previous professional high of 90 he set in 2018 as a minor leaguer.

West Notes: A’s Ballpark, Simmons, Dahl, Paddack

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The Athletics’ plans to build their new ballpark in the Howard Terminal area took a positive step forward when state officials unanimously voted that the State Lands Commission has the authority to decide whether a new stadium “is an appropriate use of the land,” Sarah Ravani of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  Several other steps remain before the project is officially a go, such as two separate bills that have to be approved by California governor Gavin Newsom, plus an environmental impact report that should be completed by the end of 2019.  If all goes well, the current timeline has construction underway in 2021, with an eye towards Opening Day 2023.

More items from around the AL and NL West….

  • It’s been a tough season for Andrelton Simmons, who has battled ankle injuries while hitting .256/.301/.355 over 366 plate appearances.  The timing of this down year is particularly poor for a shortstop who could well have been a prime extension candidate this winter, since Simmons is a free agent after the 2020 season.  Now, however, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register wonders if the Angels could wait “until at least the middle of next season before deciding if they want to sign him to an extension,” to see if Simmons can rebound or if he is starting to decline.  Simmons turned 30 just last week, and while he has never been a truly dangerous bat, he had at least posted above-average run production (as per wRC+) in both 2017 and 2018.  Simmons also had the worst defensive season of his eight-year career, though “worst” is relative when discussing arguably the best defensive shortstop of all time — Simmons still posted +11 Defensive Runs Saved and +11.7 UZR/150.  Trading Simmons seems like an unlikely option, though Fletcher wonders if the Angels could explore an extension that could overwrite his current 2020 salary ($15MM) and instead spread that money out over the length of the new deal in order to free up extra payroll space for Los Angeles to pursue pitching this offseason.  Any extension talks, of course, would hinge on Simmons’ own thoughts, as he (like so many players did last spring) might prefer security now rather than deal with potential labor uncertainty at the end of the next collective bargaining contract.  Then again, Simmons might likely feel he’s leaving money on the table by taking an extension in the wake of a down season, and might prefer to instead rebuild his value in 2020.
  • It’s becoming more likely that Rockies outfielder David Dahl won’t play again this year, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets. Even though Dahl’s progressing in his recovery from the ankle sprain he suffered Aug. 2, manager Bud Black admitted he’s “running out of time” for a 2019 return. Regardless of whether Dahl does come back, this will go down as yet another injury-limited season for the 25-year-old, who has combined for only 240 games since he debuted in 2016 (he didn’t play at all in ’17). A healthy Dahl, to his credit, has been an effective hitter – he got off to a .302/.353/.524 start with 15 HRs in 413 trips to the plate this year before landing on the shelf.
  • Like Dahl, Padres righty Chris Paddack’s season could also be done, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com observes. Paddack’s not injured, but the Padres have been monitoring the former Tommy John patient’s workload in his rookie campaign. The prized 23-year-old fired six shutout frames against the Cubs on Wednesday, raising his 2019 innings total to 135 2/3 – easily the most he has thrown in a professional season. Whether or not Paddack takes the mound again this year, this season’s sure to go in the books as a resounding success for him. Paddack has logged a 3.38 ERA/3.99 FIP with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (9.55 K/9 , 1.99 BB/9) in his first MLB action.

Padres Notes: Tatis, Paddack, Mejia

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The latest from America’s Finest City, where a midseason malaise will keep the long-suffering Padres out of postseason play for the 13th consecutive season . . .

  • Wunderkind Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s hit the shelf with a serious injury for the third time in the last calendar year, has no plans to change his hyper-aggressive manner on the field, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. “No, absolutely not,” Tatis responded when posed with the question. “If it’s part of it, it’s part of it. But I’m not going to change my game at all.” The team, though, won’t sit by in deference: “Nobody’s looking to change him much or at all,”  Padres manager Andy Green noted. “But there will be moments in time where he learns, through time, that he doesn’t need to take a chance. That’s not necessarily saying he’s going to play soft or step off the gas pedal. He’ll play very similar to the way he always has. That’s the way we want him to play. He will continue to learn and grow the more he plays.” A public position slightly hedged typically means a great deal more beneath the surface, so it’s almost certain the club’ll place caution at the center of its future messages to the young star. Tatis’ .317/.379/.590 line was slightly inflated by an obviously unsustainable .410 BABIP this season, with Statcast pegging the rookie as the NL’s luckiest hitter in ’19, but it was nonetheless a banner debut for ESPN’s #1 overall prospect entering the season.
  • Fellow rookie Chris Paddack, whose relentless first-half assault on National League hitters has been thwarted by further exposure and the absence of a quality third offering, isn’t on a concrete innings limit, as Cassavell explores in a separate piece. A 2016 Tommy John Surgery limited the righty to just 90 IP in 2018, but the club has no plans to clot his late-season leak: “That’s not where my head is,” manager Andy Green said. “Get him back on the bump, attack again, overcome. Obviously if there’s something going on, that would change my mind quickly. But I think health-wise, he feels good.” After a solid first-half showing, in which the 23-year-old’s typically dominant K/BB was marred only by a 1.31 HR/9 mark, Paddack has been drilled in 35 post-all-star-break innings, allowing nine homers and as many doubles en route to a .507 slugging percentage against and 5.56 FIP. The former eighth rounder out of a Texas high school is author to perhaps the most impressive minor-league numbers since the days of Tim Lincecum, but may find his relentless zone-pounding in need of curation.
  • Catcher Francisco Mejia, who appears now to have wrestled full-time duties away from incumbent Austin Hedges, looks to be finding his stride in the season’s second half. The 23-year-old’s 142 wRC+, on the back of a much-improved 7.5% BB rate, ranks fifth among MLB catchers over that span. The once-undiscerning backstop has also sliced his strikeout rate nearly 10% from last season’s 30.6% mark, and is now chasing pitches at a far-more-respectable rate. Mejia will still need to improve his much-maligned (in prospect circles) defense to fulfill his lofty upside, but the Friars may well have found their backstop of the future.

Padres To Recall Chris Paddack

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Padres ace Chris Paddack, optioned to the minors June 12, will return to start in the majors this Saturday, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

It was an eyebrow-raising decision when the Padres demoted Paddack a week ago, though the move quickly became understandable when it was revealed they did it to give him a breather. The 23-year-old right-hander has already pitched 65 2/3 innings this season, which comes close to the professional-high 90 frames the former Tommy John surgery recipient amassed in the minors in 2018.

One of the game’s elite prospects entering the season, Paddack has lived up to the billing thus far. He owns a 3.15 ERA/3.73 FIP with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (9.87 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9) through the first 12 starts and 65 2/3 innings of his major league career. But Paddack has stumbled somewhat since the outset of May, when his ERA sat at just 1.55, which likely played into the Padres’ decision to send him to the Single-A level on a short-term basis.

Upon Paddack’s return, he’ll rejoin a team which continues to hang around the National League’s playoff race. Winners of four in a row, the Padres are only 2 1/2 games back of the NL’s second wild-card spot at the moment.

Padres Option Chris Paddack

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In a move that’ll come as a surprise to many, the Padres announced that they have optioned right-hander Chris Paddack to Class-A Lake Elsinore. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the move (via Twitter), noting that the Friars are looking for ways to manage Paddack’s workload after he threw just 90 innings in 2018 — his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets that Paddack isn’t expected to be in the minors long. Assuming he’s back up in fewer than 20 days, the move won’t impact Paddack’s timeline to free agency, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune points out (Twitter links). Acee adds that Paddack is going down merely to rest and is expected to return in 10 days or so (the minimum required length of an optional assignment, barring recall in the event of an injury).

While workload surely was surely the driving force in the decision, Paddack has also fallen into somewhat of a slump after his brilliant start to his rookie campaign. In the past month, the 23-year-old has pitched to a 5.76 ERA with 30 hits and eight home runs allowed in 25 innings. He’s still sporting a stellar 26-to-3 K/BB ratio in that time, but the long ball has been problematic of late.

Paddack’s 65 2/3 innings are already within striking distance of last year’s total, so the brief trip to the minors will give him some downtime without forcing the Padres to carry a pitcher they’re trying to deploy minimally for a week or two. Right-hander Robert Stock is up from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster and will give the Padres a fresh arm in the bullpen. He’s pitched to a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 Triple-A innings and collected 27 strikeouts in that time — albeit against 15 walks and three hit batters.

Quick Hits: Paddack, Treinen, Archer, Tulo, L. Gurriel

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Padres rookie righty Chris Paddack has been brilliant across his first six starts and 33 innings in the majors. But Paddack’s already just 57 frames away from the career-high 90 he totaled in the minors last season in his return from 2017 Tommy John surgery. Considering Paddack’s long-term importance to the organization, San Diego has plans to limit his workload, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Indeed, agent Scott Boras told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the Padres will “manage” his 23-year-old client’s innings. However, Cassavell notes that doesn’t mean the Padres will shut down Paddack – something the Nationals did with Boras client Stephen Strasburg amid a pennant race in his younger days. “It’s mapped out,” manager Andy Green said of the Padres’ plans for Paddack, though he added that “it’s mapped out with the intention for adjustments, as well. So to sit here and walk through exactly what we think is going to happen would be foolish.” Meanwhile, Paddack indicated he’s on board with the Padres’ approach and revealed he’s aiming for a 130- to 150-inning season.

More from around the game…

  • Athletics closer Blake Treinen is dealing with right elbow discomfort that he believes is tendinitis, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Treinen’s unlikely to pitch Sunday as a result, per Slusser, who writes that “he’ll get checked out” on Monday. Treinen hasn’t toed the rubber since April 28, when he took a loss in Toronto after the Blue Jays lit him up for four earned runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old’s 2019 ERA skyrocketed from 0.68 to 3.00 during that uncharacteristically disastrous performance. Treinen told Slusser he’s simply fighting “fluke soreness,” but if the issue forces him to the injured list, Slusser points out it would be his first IL stint in the majors.
  • Pirates righty Chris Archer is eligible to come off the IL on Monday, but that won’t happen, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. Archer – out since April 27 with right thumb inflammation – is in line for a bullpen session Tuesday, and he’ll need to throw at least one sim game before the Pirates decide whether he’s ready to return. Archer’s absence is all the more troublesome for Pittsburgh now that fellow righty Jameson Taillon could miss upward of a month with a flexor strain in his elbow.
  • Already out since April 3 because of a left calf strain, Yankees shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has suffered a setback and will be shut down for another week, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. It’s the latest bad break for the once-great Tulowitzki, whom injuries have haunted throughout his career. The 34-year-old wasn’t healthy enough to participate in either of the previous two seasons, which led the Blue Jays to cut him over the winter and eat the remaining $38MM on his contract. Tulowitzki then found a taker in the Yankees on a league-minimum deal, with both parties hoping he’d stay healthy and adeptly fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius. The dice roll hasn’t paid off for the Yankees, who have received a meager 13 plate appearances from Tulowitzki and appear unlikely to get him back anytime soon.
  • Although Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has exclusively been an infielder since debuting with the Blue Jays last year, that’s about to change. Speaking with Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday, general manager Ross Atkins said the Jays plan to turn Gurriel into at least a part-time outfielder. The 25-year-old, whom Toronto demoted to Triple-A Buffalo three weeks ago, has been racking up corner outfield reps in the minors. As Chisholm writes, the outfield isn’t totally new for Gurriel, who played left in his native Cuba for 40 games back in 2015-16. The change figures to open up major league playing time for Gurriel upon his return, given that Randal Grichuk’s the sole Toronto outfielder who has been remotely productive this season. The group entered Saturday as the American League’s least valuable outfield.
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