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Reds Designate Barrett Astin For Assignment

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The Reds announced on Tuesday that they’ve designated right-hander Barrett Astin for assignment in order to clear space on the roster for righty Deck McGuire, whose contract has been selected from Double-A. Cincinnati has also reinstated outfielder Jesse Winker from the 10-day disabled list and recalled right-handed pitching prospect Keury Mella, who will be making his MLB debut when he first takes the hill for the Reds.

Astin, 25, was acquired along with fellow righty Kevin Shackelford in the 2014 trade that sent reliever Jonathan Broxton from Cincinnati to Milwaukee. The former third-rounder out of Arkansas enjoyed a terrific 2016 campaign in Double-A (2.26 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 in 103 1/3 frames) but has posted an ERA north of 6.00 in both Triple-A and a brief Major League stint this season.

In eight big league innings, Astin allowed six runs on nine hits (two homers) and seven walks with just a pair of strikeouts. Astin does have a pair of options remaining beyond the 2017 campaign, so a club that is intrigued by his quality 2016 output could conceivably claim him, bring him to camp next year and option him without first needing to expose him to waivers.

The 28-year-old McGuire is a known name to some thanks to his No. 11 overall selection out of Georgia Tech by the Blue Jays back in the 2010 draft. He’s yet to live up to that draft billing, struggling greatly in Triple-A for the Jays, Athletics, Dodgers and Cardinals before landing in the Reds organization this past winter.

While McGuire spent the year in Double-A rather than the minors’ top level, he notched a strong 2.79 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 with a 38.8 percent ground-ball rate through 168 innings (27 starts). McGuire has never made it to the Majors, so this call-up represents a payoff after seven minor league seasons working toward that end.

As for Mella, the 24-year-old as billed as the centerpiece in the 2015 trade that sent right-hander Mike Leake to San Francisco, though left fielder Adam Duvall, who was also in the deal, has since proven to be a high-quality return on his own. Mella ranks 21st among Reds farmhands, per Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, and has pitched to a 4.30 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate through 134 innings for Double-A Pensacola in 2017.

Poll: Should The Reds Give Zack Cozart A Qualifying Offer?

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An ill-timed injury that landed Zack Cozart on the disabled list from July 26 through Aug. 6 may have prevented the Reds from trading their shortstop prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. The Reds placed Cozart on revocable trade waivers last month and reportedly pulled him back after the claiming team placed the claim more to block other contenders from acquiring Cozart than to work out a trade themselves.

Zack Cozart | Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsThat effectively eliminated the possibility of the Reds trading Cozart at all, leaving general manager Dick Williams and his staff with somewhat of a dilemma. Cozart has played at star level on a per-game basis over the past three seasons — never more so than in 2017 — but has also dealt with injuries in each of those three seasons. The rebuilding Reds, then, are faced with the choice of either letting one of their best players walk as a free agent with no compensation or making a one-year qualifying offer that is reported to be in the $18.1MM range, which would net them draft pick compensation. There’s an argument to be made in favor of either decision.

Those that feel a qualifying offer is too great a risk have an understandable vantage point. Cozart is 32 years old and, assuming he remains healthy through season’s end, will have averaged about 100 games per year over the past three seasons. In that time, he’s been sidelined by a torn ACL, some knee troubles in 2016 and quadriceps issues in 2017. There will also likely be clubs that wonder if this year’s offensive breakout is sustainable; while he’d shown much-improved power in both 2015 and 2016, Cozart’s offensive output has never approached his 2017 levels in the past.

There’s also a lack of contending clubs or expected contenders with clear-cut shortstop needs this offseason, creating the potential for the same limited market the Reds found when seeking trade partners in both 2016 and 2017. And, Cozart has only earned about $12MM in his career, so the prospect of increasing his career earnings by 150 percent in a single season will make it tempting to accept — especially since the new CBA prohibits the team from making a second QO the following offseason.

[Related: Offseason Primer — The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

On the other hand, a one-year deal for Cozart at $18.1MM isn’t necessarily a bad outcome. He’s been worth considerably more than that this season even with his injuries, thanks to his perennially elite defense and his career-best .304/.397/.549 batting line. Cozart’s offensive improvement doesn’t appear to be due entirely to BABIP luck, either. He’s more than doubled his career walk rate (6.4 percent career, 13 percent in 2017), his strikeout rate remains strong (15 percent — well below the league average) and his 31.4 percent hard-hit rate is largely a continuation of last year’s solid pace.

Like many others throughout the league, Cozart has increased his fly-ball rate a bit, and he’s also benefited from a not-outlandish uptick in his 2015-16 homer-to-flyball ratio. The Reds can probably expect some degree of regression in his career-high .324 BABIP, but even a return to his career level of .281 would render the new, ultra-patient and more powerful version of Cozart a decidedly above-average bat. Cozart will enter this offseason as a markedly better offensive producer than J.J. Hardy was when he signed a three-year, $40MM deal to remain with the Orioles at the same age.

There may not be a lengthy list of teams eyeing shortstop upgrades, but there are plenty of clubs that could work Cozart into the mix. The Cardinals could deploy Paul DeJong at third base and play Cozart at shortstop. The D-backs have some uncertainty and were often a speculative Cozart suitor this summer, though they do have Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed both controllable beyond the current campaign. The Padres aren’t contending but have long been seeking stability at shortstop, while the Royals will be on the lookout for an Alcides Escobar replacement. Trevor Story has taken a step back in Colorado. Both Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis have injury concerns in Toronto. And, as ever, offseason trades and injuries, will alter every free agent’s market.

Were Cozart to accept, the Reds wouldn’t be able to trade him without his consent until mid-June of 2018. However, he could also once again command interest at the 2018 non-waiver deadline, particularly if he maintains his breakout and the Reds show some willingness to pay any of the contract. (Cincinnati did pay the bulk of Brandon Phillips’ contract this past offseason, and Cozart’s deal almost certainly wouldn’t require the Reds to pay such a significant portion, even at $18.1MM.)

All of that said, I’ll open this up for public input (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Bryan Price Will Be On Hot Seat In 2018

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  • Reds manager Bryan Price will return next season, but his future beyond then is in question, per Rosenthal, who adds that the club could cut the cord if it doesn’t make legitimate progress in 2018. The Reds have gone just 269-359 in three-plus years under Price and are currently one loss away from guaranteeing their fourth straight sub-.500 season during his reign. There hasn’t been much pressure on Price to this point, though, given Cincinnati’s rebuilding status and its lack of pitching.

Billy Hamilton Diagnosed With Fractured Thumb

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The Reds announced that center fielder Billy Hamilton sustained a fractured left thumb in today’s game and is expected to be placed on the 10-day disabled list. That puts the remainder of the season in jeopardy for Hamilton, though manager Bryan Price told reporters that the injury does not necessarily end the fleet-footed Hamilton’s season (Twitter link via Adam Baum of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Hamilton initially sustained the injury on a bunt attempt in the first inning. He exited the game and headed straight for an MRI, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweeted at the time.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart]

The 26-year-old Hamilton has seen his offensive production take a step backwards after hitting .293 with a .369 on-base percentage in the second half of the 2016 season. Thus far in 2017, he’s matched his career-high of 58 stolen bases but has done so with a sub-par .248/.299/.333 batting line through an even 600 plate appearances. That said, Hamilton’s baserunning continues to be regarded as the best in the Majors, per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, and his glovework in center field remains considerably above average as well.

With Hamilton on the shelf, the Reds can turn to Jose Peraza and Phillip Ervin in center field. Cincinnati has also played Scott Schebler in center field on occasion in 2017, so they could slide him over for a day or two as a means of getting prospect Jesse Winker some additional at-bats once Winker returns from the disabled list. Sheldon wrote earlier today that Winker was nearing a return from a strained hip flexor.

Looking ahead, Hamilton remains the odds-on favorite to hold down regular duties in center field next year yet again. Despite his lagging bat, his baserunning and glovework make him a useful player. Plus, the lack of power has held down his arbitration earnings. Hamilton took down just $2.625MM this year and can be controlled for two more seasons to come. That said, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Cincinnati began considering alternatives as soon as this winter.

Reds Exercise Bryan Price’s 2018 Option

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Sept. 4: Price confirmed to reporters today that his 2018 option has been exercised by the team (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon). “It’s a good thing, I think, for all of us because we’d like to see this thing through to the other side,” said the skipper.

Sept. 2: Manager Bryan Price will remain at the helm of the Reds in 2018, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Thanks to a clause in the contract Price signed last year, the Reds were required to inform him by Saturday whether they’d exercise his 2018 club option. However, the team actually assured him in July that he’d return, per Rosecrans, who adds that Price’s entire coaching staff will likely be invited back.

Next season will be the ninth in Cincinnati for Price, who served as predecessor Dusty Baker’s pitching coach from 2010-13 before taking over as the club’s manager. The Reds have gone just 276-355 in three-plus seasons under Price, haven’t won more than 76 games in an individual year during his reign and rank among the majors’ worst teams in 2017 with a 58-77 mark. That isn’t to suggest Price has been at fault, though, as the Reds are in the midst of a rebuild and have been devoid of pitching during his tenure. This year’s Reds entered Saturday last in the sport in ERA (5.29) and pitching fWAR (2.5). To put the latter figure in perspective, 34 big league starters and four relievers have posted an equal or better fWAR than the combined total of the 29 pitchers the Reds have used in 2017.

Given their woes on the mound, it’s no surprise that the Reds are toward the bottom of the standings yet again. There have been some bright spots this year, however, including the continued brilliance of first baseman Joey Votto and breakouts from young starter Luis Castillo, relief ace Raisel Iglesias and third baseman Eugenio Suarez.

The performance of a manager is difficult to quantify, meaning it’s unclear how much the 55-year-old Price has positively or negatively impacted any of the Reds’ players. Regardless, he and his staff have shown enough to general manager Dick Williams to warrant at least another year in the dugout.

Reds Release Lisalverto Bonilla, Select Contract Of Zach Vincej

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of infielder Zach Vincej from Triple-A Louisville and released right-hander Lisalverto Bonilla to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Right-hander Ariel Hernandez has also been recalled from Louisville as a September call-up, per Cincinnati’s announcement.

Vincej, 26, was the 1132nd pick of the 2012 draft — all the way down the board in the 37th round. He’s slowly risen through the minor league ranks and had a huge performance in last year’s Arizona Fall League before hitting .270/.325/.370 in his first taste of Triple-A this year. Vincej doesn’t rank among Cincinnati’s top prospects, but he’ll provide some up-the-middle depth for the Reds in his first look as a Major Leaguer.

Bonilla, 27, returned to the Majors for the first time since 2014 this year, though the results weren’t favorable. In 36 2/3 frames, he was torched for an 8.10 ERA — allowing 33 earned runs on 42 hits (eight homers) and 22 walks. He also hit a pair of batters and threw three wild pitches. Bonilla has a history of missing bats in the minors, but he averaged just 6.9 K/9 against his 5.4 BB/9 in 2017.

Reds Pulled Zack Cozart Back From Revocable Waivers

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Reds shortstop Zack Cozart won’t be going anywhere before season’s end, as he’s already been claimed and subsequently pulled off waivers this month, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. According to Heyman, the unnamed team that placed a claim on Cozart did so as a means of blocking him from other contenders.

The 32-year-old Cozart is a free agent following the season, meaning the only way that the Reds can receive compensation in the event of his departure on the open market would be to make a one-year qualifying offer to Cozart that would be worth a reported $18.1MM.

While Cozart isn’t exactly a household name and is a bit old relative to most first-time free agents, there’s nonetheless a pretty strong case that the Reds should go exactly that route. Cozart has long rated as a premium defensive shortstop, but he’s upped his power output over the past three seasons. And, in 2017, he’s taken his overall offensive game to new heights, turning in a superlative .309/.402/.556 batting line through 408 plate appearances. Even if Cozart were to accept a qualifying offer, his level of play in any of the past three seasons, on a per-game basis, would be well worth that commitment.

Of course, it’s also important to stress the “per-game basis” component of that line of thinking, as injuries have been a significant hindrance to Cozart since 2015. A torn knee ligament limited Cozart to just 53 games in what was shaping up to be a breakout 2015 season, and some September knee troubles prematurely ended his 2016 campaign as well. This year, Cozart’s knees have apparently held up just fine, but he’s still missed about a month of the year due to a pair of quadriceps injuries — one in each leg.

For all of the positives that Cozart brings to the table, his placement on the DL just prior to the non-waiver deadline (July 29) and the large number of contending clubs that already deploy high-quality shortstops combined to prevent the Reds from dealing him in July. That surplus of top-notch shortstops around the league could also impact Cozart’s market in free agency this winter. All of that will be part of the calculus for the Reds when determining whether to make a QO in the first place and for Cozart when determining his course of action.

From my vantage point, it’s well worth the risk for Cincinnati — a one-year deal for Cozart at that rate isn’t a bad outcome — but the rebuilding Reds may not wish to spend at that level to retain Cozart when the team has younger options it’d like to evaluate with those at-bats.

Knocking Down The Door: Anderson, Gonsalves, Lopez, Maples, Walker

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“Knocking Down the Door” is a regular feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Brian Anderson, 3B, Miami Marlins (Triple-A New Orleans) | Marlins Depth Chart

Brian Anderson | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsSince a mid-July promotion to Triple-A New Orleans, the 24-year-old Anderson has been hitting like someone who knows he’s auditioning for a Major League job. In 29 Pacific Coast League games, the right-handed hitting third baseman is slashing .350/.420/.631 with eight home runs and 12 multi-hit games.

Dee Gordon and Martin Prado will presumably be on the trade block this offseason, and the Marlins wouldn’t pull the trigger on dealing either player without knowing if they have a potential in-house replacement (Prado could move to second base if Gordon is traded). If there is a Marlins prospect who is a candidate to step into a starting role in 2018, it would be Anderson, a former third-round draft pick. Calling him up in the near future and giving him 100+ plate appearances would give the Marlins a much better idea of how capable he is of becoming their starting third baseman next season.

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Stephen Gonsalves, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester) | Twins Depth Chart

A shoulder injury that pushed Gonsalves’ season debut to mid-May could be a blessing in disguise for him and the Twins. While most starting pitching prospects are usually close to their innings limit in August and not expected to contribute much at the Major League level in September and beyond, Gonsalves is at 109 2/3 innings after his latest start. Considering that he threw 140 innings during a breakout 2016 in which he appeared very much on the fast track to the Major Leagues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s pitching for the playoff-contending Twins late this season.

The 23-year-old lefty was recently promoted to Triple-A following a dominant 28-start stint in Double-A (161 2/3 IP, 2.28 ERA, 6.1 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 10.3 K/9) over the past two seasons. After posting back-to-back quality starts, Gonsalves struggled in his third Triple-A outing before bouncing back with another stellar effort over the weekend (6 IP, ER, 7 H, BB, 6 K). The Twins are currently in possession of a Wild Card berth with Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee serving as their fourth and fifth starters, respectively. If they’re going to hold on, they might need to turn to their farm system one more time. Gonsalves could be the difference maker.

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Jose Lopez, SP, Cincinnati Reds (Double-A Pensacola) | Reds Depth Chart

The 23-year-old Lopez is only three months removed from pitching in the High-A Florida State League, but there are already several reasons to believe that he’s not far away from the Majors. After allowing 15 earned runs in his first 27 innings with Double-A Pensacola, the right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the Minor Leagues. In his last 10 starts, he has a 1.24 ERA with 4.8 H/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9. He’s completed at least six innings and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits over that span.

During Lopez’s first crack at the upper minors, he’s shown an ability to make adjustments, miss bats, throw strikes and pitch deep into games—he has a 68.5% strike rate and hasn’t thrown more than 96 pitches in any of his 10 consecutive quality starts. Tyler Mahle, who made this list on May 1st and June 27th, became the 15th Reds’ pitcher to make a start in 2017 when he made his MLB debut yesterday. Lopez deserves to be the 16th.

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Dillon Maples, RP, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa) | Cubs Depth Chart 

The Cubs appeared to solidify what was already a deep and talented bullpen by acquiring lefty Justin Wilson at the trade deadline. Wilson has been mostly ineffective, however, while the team’s other key relievers have been unreliable, to put it kindly, over the past few weeks. It’s not quite a major area of concern at this point, considering the track record of the group, but it’s probably alarming enough to at least take a look at adding a reinforcement from the Minors, even one that began the season in High-A.

Maples’ rise didn’t begin immediately after the team converted him to a reliever a few years back. His numbers out of the ’pen were unimpressive in 46 appearances in the low minors from 2015-16, but something has apparently clicked in 2017. In 51 appearances across three levels, including his last 16 with Triple-A Iowa, the 25-year-old has a 2.74 ERA, 6.2 H/9 and 14.3 K/9. The walks are a concern (5.3 BB/9), but he’s only walked more than one batter in three of his combined 30 appearances in the upper minors. It’s also worth noting that Carl Edwards Jr. had a 6.0 BB/9 in 24 Triple-A appearances last season but went on to finish the year as one of the best relievers on the World Series champs.

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Christian Walker, 1B/LF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno) | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Walker’s already difficult path to the Majors could not have taken a worse turn during the past offseason. With limited at-bats available in Baltimore behind Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, the right-handed hitting first baseman was designated for assignment in February. The likelihood of a better opportunity lied ahead. But it never came. By the time the regular season started, he had been claimed on waivers by three different teams—Braves, Reds and Diamondbacks—that employed superstar first basemen who rarely miss a game. In late March, he was designated for assignment a fourth time, only to clear waivers and remain with the Diamondbacks.

To his credit, the 26-year-old did not let the limited opportunity and removal from the 40-man roster affect him at the plate. After putting up what would be slightly below-average numbers for a first baseman in Triple-A during parts of the previous three seasons, Walker has taken his game to another level in 2017. In 565 plate appearances, he’s been the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A version of Paul Goldschmidt, slashing .312/.384/.609 with 32 homers and 34 doubles. While the Pacific Coast League is more hitter-friendly than the International League, where Walker played previously, his improved walk and strikeout rates (145 BB, 406 K from ’14-16; 58 BB, 97 K in ’17) are indications that a better approach at the plate has helped lead to his success.

A September call-up is in the cards as the D-backs have gotten very little from their pinch-hitters in ’17 (.636 OPS), but they’d also do Walker a huge favor by either trading him in the offseason to a team where he has a chance to play or removing him from the 40-man roster—assuming he’s added in September—so he can opt for free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Promote Tyler Mahle

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  • The Reds selected the contract of right-hander Tyler Mahle before Sunday’s game against the Pirates and optioned fellow righty Luke Farrell to Triple-A Louisville (updated depth chart). The 22-year-old Mahle, who made his big league debut with a start on Sunday, earned his way to the majors with a combined 2.06 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 144 1/3 innings between the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season. Baseball America (No. 78), FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen (No. 85) and MLB.com (No. 86) each regard Mahle as one of the sport’s 100 best prospects. The 2013 seventh-round pick has a mid-rotation ceiling, per MLB.com, which notes that he’s a “command and control specialist” who brings a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph and average secondary offerings to the table.

Luis Castillo Earns 2018 Rotation Spot

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  • Reds rookie right-hander Luis Castillo has already earned a place in their 2018 rotation, manager Bryan Price told Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters Saturday. “In his case, he’s not only pitched really well in our system in Double-A, but he’s continued to pitch well and get better during his time in the big leagues. For me, he’s a guy that’s in our rotation,” Price said of Castillo, who fired seven innings of three-hit, one-run, nine-strikeout ball against the Pirates on Saturday. That will go down as one of the last appearances of the year for Castillo, whom the Reds will soon shut down for the season because of an innings limit, per Buchanan. The flamethrowing 24-year-old has pitched to a 3.26 ERA and posted 9.66 K/9 against 3.61 BB/9, with a 57 percent ground-ball rate, across 77 1/3 major league frames this season.
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