Tigers Unlikely To Pursue Extension With J.D. Martinez
GM Al Avila made headlines earlier this week when he stated that changes were on the horizon for a Tigers team that “has been working way above its means for some time,” thereby implying that payroll needs to decrease, and he also added that the Detroit roster needs to get younger. While that doesn’t mean the Tigers will ship off cornerstones Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, it does call into question the future of some players who are nearing the end of their time with the team, including J.D. Martinez, whom Avila says isn’t likely to be extended this winter, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.
“I don’t foresee any talks of a long-term contract at this point,” Avila said of Martinez. “In saying that, we’re going to keep an open mind in what possibilities come across this winter, this coming summer. I’m not going to rule out that we wouldn’t consider a long-term deal, but sitting here today, we’re not thinking that way right now.”
An extension of Martinez, who is slated to become a free agent next winter, would represent yet another $100MM+ commitment for the Tigers given the extent to which the 29-year-old has blossomed since signing in Detroit. Martinez has batted a combined .299/.357/.540 over the past three years and averaged 34 homers per 162 games played along the way. He missed nearly two months of the 2016 season with a fracture in his elbow but was improbably even better after his time on the DL, slashing .332/.392/.553 with 10 homers over his final 232 plate appearances (albeit with the help of an unsustainable .418 BABIP).
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the possibility of a Martinez extension, noting that his age and emergence as an offensive force could push his price point beyond the six-year, $132.75MM figure for which Justin Upton signed last winter (depending on whether or not the Tigers and Martinez’s agents worked an opt-out clause into the deal). That number may look jarring for a player who was released by Houston in Spring Training 2014, but since Opening Day 2014, Martinez rates as the game’s 13th-best hitter by measure of wRC+ (via Fangraphs), placing him alongside the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Kris Bryant. His defense, as Mark addressed in the aforementioned Extension Candidate piece, is another story, but Martinez’s bat comes with tremendous value.
As such, the possibility of Martinez’s entrance into the trade market this offseason shouldn’t be taken lightly. Fenech speculates that Martinez is the likeliest member of the Tigers to be traded this winter, as doing so would trim $11.75MM off the payroll and net the team some much-needed premium minor league talent. The Tigers, after all, have a pair of young outfielders that are out of minor league options next year in Steven Moya and Tyler Collins, both of whom will need to make the Opening Day roster or risk being exposed to outright waivers. Dealing Martinez would free up a much clearer path to a big league opportunity for either player.
Al Avila: “Changes Are Coming” To Tigers
Tigers GM Al Avila told team reporters in his end-of-year press conference today that the organization will be looking to shake up its approach to roster building this winter. While Avila was largely and understandably vague on specifics, he made clear that “changes are coming” to how Detroit does business, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports on Twitter.
The central issue, Avila suggested, is to avoid the ongoing reliance on high-priced veterans, as Jason Beck of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). “We want to get younger,” he said. “We want to get leaner. We want to run the organization without having to go over our means. We want to stay competitive, but at the same time, this organization has been working way above its means for some time.”
The notion that the Detroit organization has been spending “above its means” is certainly notable. Unquestionably, the club — under the leadership of owner Mike Ilitch — has committed huge sums of money to acquire and retain numerous talented players at market prices. That includes not only large extensions for players like Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, but also major free agent outlays for Prince Fielder (who was later traded for Ian Kinsler), Anibal Sanchez, Victor Martinez, and — most recently — Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann.
Many of those big contracts were handed out while the Tigers’ baseball operations were being run by Dave Dombrowski, who Avila replaced last summer. But he oversaw the signings of Upton and Zimmermann last offseason, along with acquisitions of veterans Mike Pelfrey, Francisco Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, and Mark Lowe. And the front office reportedly talked down Ilitch from a budget-busting offer to slugger Chris Davis. While the club improved to an 86-75 record, it failed to make the postseason for the second consecutive season despite an Opening Day payroll of nearly $200MM.
Ultimately, Avila was not willing to label the team’s upcoming approach as a rebuilding effort, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports (Twitter links). And he did not specifically chart a course for how the team will accomplish the stated aim of infusing youth and trimming costs. But he did suggest that some tweaks could be coming, and that they may require some changed expectations for a team that has fashioned itself a perennial contender. “It’s not going to be easy,” said Avila. “But it has to be done.”
The overall thrust of the comments appears to indicate that Detroit may look to reallocate resources as soon as the coming winter. Avila left the impression that the organization won’t be looking to add impact free agents, as Woodberry tweets. And the GM made clear that payroll won’t go up, as Fenech tweets. He also didn’t promise a decline, but seemingly suggested as much. “Usually it will be the opposite,” he said. It’s not immediately clear whether the Tigers could pursue trades of quality veterans in a bid to add younger, controllable talent, but that certainly seems to be a natural course to pursue given Avila’s statements.
Detroit may not pursue a dramatic tear-down, but the precise strategic direction remains to be seen. Avila did note that the Tigers will likely need to add a reserve catcher to pair with James McCann, suggesting his son — Alex Avila — could be considered for a return, as Fenech tweets. The organization has yet to decide on club options over Maybin ($9MM with a $1MM buyout) and Rodriguez ($6MM with a $2MM buyout), the veteran executive added and Fenech tweeted.
Heyman’s Latest: Baez, Soler, Lackey, Tigers, D’Backs, Bruce, Yankees
Here’s a postseason-flavored set of notes from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports…
- The Cubs‘ decision to keep Javier Baez has proven to be a wise one, and Heyman writes that the team kept Baez over Starlin Castro last offseason because the front office simply had more belief in Baez’s potential. Not only did Castro carry a much higher price tag than the pre-arb Baez, but the Cubs infielder is already looking like the more productive player — Baez posted 2.7 fWAR over 450 plate appearances, while Castro managed just 1.1 fWAR over 610 PA for the Yankees. Baez has shown great power and is cutting back on his strikeouts, though while he is still something of a work in progress at the plate, his defense has already drawn raves. One NL scout tells Heyman that he thinks Baez could win Gold Gloves at multiple positions in the future.
- Jorge Soler could again be trade bait as the Cubs will be juggling a crowded outfield situation. Kyle Schwarber will return to play left field, plus Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist would seem to be penciled in for center and right, respectively. That mix also doesn’t include highly-touted rookie Albert Almora, or if the Cubs were to re-sign Dexter Fowler for center field. Soler drew a lot of trade attention last winter and is signed through 2020, so though he hasn’t truly broken out as a big leaguer yet, he would surely be a big trade chip if the Cubs indeed explored moving him.
- The Tigers and Diamondbacks both “tried hard” to sign John Lackey last winter before the right-hander inked his two-year, $32MM deal with the Cubs. Lackey reportedly chose Chicago over two larger offers, though Heyman doesn’t know if the Tigers and D’Backs were the clubs behind those bigger deals. Arizona was known to have “at least checked in” on Lackey last winter, and while Detroit’s involvement in the Lackey market is new information, it isn’t a surprise given how the Tigers targeted starting pitching last offseason. Either team landing Lackey sets up several fascinating what-if scenarios, given that the D’Backs and Tigers made alternate pitching acquisitions that didn’t pan out in 2016. If the Diamondbacks signed Lackey, perhaps they then wouldn’t have made the franchise-altering decisions to sign Zack Greinke or trade for Shelby Miller. If the Tigers had gotten Lackey, perhaps they wouldn’t have spent $110MM on Jordan Zimmermann, or $16MM on Mike Pelfrey.
- There have already been reports that the Mets intend to exercise their $13MM club option on Jay Bruce for 2017, and a rival executive tells Heyman that retaining Bruce is a move New York has to make. Keeping Bruce would create some defensive issues within the Mets outfield, though the exec noted that “if they don’t want him, they could always trade him.” Bruce slumped badly after joining the Mets but he posted strong numbers in the season’s first four months, so he’d certainly draw interest on the trade market.
- Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield were the two headline prospects sent from Cleveland to New York in the Andrew Miller trade, and Heyman reports that some Indians staff believe Sheffield could be the bigger loss: “Sheffield is a lefty starter, which you can’t find, Frazier is a corner power bat, which you can.” It’ll be several years before we can access how that trade worked out for either the Yankees or the Tribe, though needless to say, nobody in Cleveland has any regrets right now, given Miller’s dominance.
Central Notes: Tigers, Royals, Peralta, Brewers
Tigers GM Al Avila tells Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press that he takes full responsibility for the team’s underperformance in 2016. “…[A]t the end of the day, I make those decisions and you’ve got to put a lot of the blame on myself,” said Avila. “So the guys that we brought in — and let’s say they didn’t perform for whatever reason — that’s on me. As Fenech explores, about $56MM of the Tigers’ 2016 payroll was dedicated to free agent signings Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Lowe and Mike Aviles. That quintet of players, however, fell woefully shy of expectations and finished the season with a collective performance that was scarcely better than replacement-level. Fenech notes that Avila fared much better on the trade market — Cameron Maybin, Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson — and will probably have to be more active in that regard this winter anyhow due to the lack of appealing free-agent options.
More from the game’s Central divisions…
- Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star explores some potential trade scenarios for the Royals, noting that the team’s desire to shed payroll could result in moving a player who has been central to the team’s previous run of success. However, Dodd also reports that to this point, Kansas City “has shown little inclination to trade one of its central players,” so the listed scenarios are predominately speculative in nature. Among the soon-to-be free agents are Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Wade Davis, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar — each of whom will hit the open market following the 2017 season.
- The infield is a source of some uncertainty for the Cardinals heading into the 2017 season, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. However, unlike many clubs with positional uncertainty, St. Louis’ problem isn’t a lack of options but rather a number of potential fits. The hot corner looks to be Jhonny Peralta‘s entering next year, Hummel surmises, as Matt Carpenter could play either first base or second base — representing another position change for the versatile infielder. Peralta acknowledged to Hummel that rookie Aledmys Diaz has seized the shortstop gig and will play there moving forward, and the veteran didn’t have any complaints about the move. Nonetheless, Hummel writes that Peralta could potentially be dealt this offseason as well, if there’s interest, noting that he’s owed $10MM next year in the final season of a front-loaded four-year, $53MM pact. The presence Matt Adams and Kolten Wong (as well as potential interest in re-signing Brandon Moss), of course, only further clouds the infield picture.
- Brewers GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell spoke to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel about the team’s 2016 season and explained that many of the incremental goals the team set for itself were met, even if there’s still quite a bit of work to be done. Counsell spoke positively about the competition among players not only at the minor league level but also at the big league level as a particular source of excitement for him. As Haudricourt notes, the Brewers led the Majors in stolen bases and also came second only to the Blue Jays in pitches per plate appearance (3.97), which resulted in a staggering increase in walks but also an uptick in strikeouts. The Brewers struck out too often and ranked in the bottom third of the league in overall runs scored, so Stearns isn’t celebrating the increase in selectivity just yet. “I think ultimately you evaluate offense by the number of runs you create,” said the GM. “All offensive contributions are geared toward creating runs. Clearly, we’d like to create more runs in the future. We can get there in a variety of ways. There’s no prescribed way to build a lineup. We have to be flexible in how we approach run creation.”
AL Notes: Liriano, Joyner, Wallace
Blue Jays lefty Francisco Liriano was cleared to return home to Toronto with his team after being struck by Carlos Gomez‘s eighth-inning line drive in Game 2 of the ALDS Friday, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and others have noted. The ball hit Liriano in the back of the head as he turned away, and it caromed into right center field. “I know what he’s going through right now, hoping for the best for the results,” says fellow Jays hurler J.A. Happ, who fractured his skull after taking a line drive to the head in 2013. “[B]ut yeah, that was scary.” Here’s more from the American League.
- The Tigers have announced that hitting coach Wally Joyner will not return in 2017, as he intends to pursue “other interests in the game of baseball.” Assistant hitting coach David Newhan’s role with the team will be determined once the team finds a replacement for Joyner. Other key Tigers coaches (including pitching coach Rich Dubee, bench coach Gene Lamont, first base coach Omar Vizquel, third base coach Dave Clark, bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer and defensive coordinator Matt Martin) will return. The Tigers exercised manager Brad Ausmus’ 2017 option earlier this week. Under Joyner and Newhan, the Tigers had one of MLB’s better offenses in 2016, batting .267/.331/.438, although it should perhaps be noted that having Miguel Cabrera in the middle of their lineup gave them a hefty head start.
- Orioles pitching coach Dave Wallace, who retired from his full-time role earlier this week, will be missed, Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com writes. Wallace had no connections with Buck Showalter or Dan Duquette when the Orioles hired him three years ago, but his hiring turned out to be a boon for Orioles pitchers like Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen and Brad Brach, along with younger hurlers like Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy. Perhaps the best orange and black feather in Wallace’s cap is that of Zach Britton, who transformed from a struggling (and out-of-options) starter to a dominant closer soon after Wallace arrived.
Heyman’s Latest: ChiSox, Santana, Cozart, Rockies, Davis, Brewers, Smith
Jon Heyman of Fan Rag gives his odds on the postseason and provides a host of interesting information in his latest notes column. Here are a few highlights:
- While there’s been some turnover in the White Sox‘ dugout, as bench coach Rick Renteria has moved up to manager as a replacement for the departing Robin Ventura, changes to the field staff don’t figure to impact pitching coach Don Cooper, per Heyman. In fact, the South Siders have actually made an extension offer to their well-respected pitching coach, who is on the brink of entering his 16th season at that post.
- While it’s hardly a surprise, Heyman notes that the Indians will exercise their $12MM option on Carlos Santana. For a player with a .259/.366/.498 with a career-high 34 homers, that decision was a no-brainer, even for a typically cost-conscious club like Cleveland.
- The Rockies quietly made a run at Cincinnati’s Zack Cozart prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, knowing that Trevor Story, whose last game came on July 30, was ailing and could miss the remainder of the season. Talks continued into August, per Heyman, but Cozart’s own injury issues arose and made a deal more difficult. It’d have been interesting to see the Rox land Cozart, as he’d have once again become a trade chip for them in the offseason with Story expected to be ready to go for the 2017 season. While talks don’t seem likely to be revisited this winter, the note is another reminder that Cozart is a desirable trade chip for the Reds, who also had a near-swap that would’ve sent Cozart to the Mariners on Aug. 1. Heyman also reminds that longtime GM/president Walt Jocketty will step into an adviser role this winter, leaving GM Dick Williams as the top decision-maker in Cincinnati’s baseball ops department.
- Sticking with the Rockies, Heyman chronicles the rift that grew and eventually became irreconcilable between now-former manager Walt Weiss and GM Jeff Bridich. Per the report, there was a near-total breakdown of communications between the two. Weiss expressed concern with owner Dick Monfort — who was seemingly preparing to give Weiss a two-year extension and tried to convince him to stay. But the skipper didn’t believe that the two leaders could co-exist, and Monfort ultimately stuck with his GM.
- Tigers owner Mike Ilitch was serious about pursuing slugger Chris Davis in free agency last winter — so much so that he was willing to guarantee something approaching $200MM, says Heyman. Newly-installed GM Al Avila, however, recommended that the team take another course. Though Davis has been reasonably productive, he hasn’t produced at the levels that earned him his ultimate contract — a $161MM deal with the Orioles.
- As the Brewers‘ brass has suggested, Heyman says that the team is not inclined to utilize Jonathan Villar at third base. With Orlando Arcia seemingly set for his first full season at short, that may well mean that Villar is destined to shift over to second base. If that’s the case, it’s not clear just what role Scooter Gennett will have. The 26-year-old is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility after a posting a below-average .263/.317/.412 batting line in his 542 plate appearances in 2016.
- Meanwhile, the Brewers may not be sold on the idea of tendering Chris Carter a contract. While the team has suggested he’s expected back, Carter’s 41 homers also make him a good bet to earn a rather significant arbitration raise.
- The Mariners appear to be “leaning toward” picking up a $7MM option over outfielder Seth Smith. Smith, 34, isn’t quite an everyday player, but has received over 400 plate appearances in each of his two campaigns in Seattle. This year, he hit .249/.342/.415 with 16 home runs, just under his overall career marks. At $7MM, the M’s would be getting Smith for something like the going annual rate for a fourth outfielder, while limiting its commitment to a single season.
Tigers Exercise Brad Ausmus’ Option
TODAY: Detroit has formally announced that Ausmus will be back next season. The press release makes no mention of any additional contract years, so it doesn’t seem that he has received any longer-term assurances.
YESTERDAY: The Tigers will exercise manager Brad Ausmus’ option for 2017, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). Under Ausmus, the Tigers have gone 250-234 – including 86-75 in 2016 – with one playoff appearance in three seasons.
Detroit fell 2.5 games short of an American League wild-card spot this year, and there have been questions over the past several months regarding Ausmus’ job security. Ausmus seemed frustrated with his status over the weekend, telling reporters to “ask whoever’s managing next year” when they inquired about how the Tigers plan to use reliever Bruce Rondon in 2017. Ausmus also said he has “kind of been an interim manager for like two years.” Nevertheless, the former big league catcher expressed a desire to continue as Detroit’s skipper.
“It’s going to be between me and Al,” he said, referring to general manager Al Avila. “If Al thinks he would rather have someone else, I would respect his decision. If Al would like me to do it, I would love to do it. But to speculate over it is a waste of time.”
Avila was scheduled to meet with Ausmus sometime this week to discuss the latter’s job. It now appears Ausmus will get another chance with a Detroit team that has gone back-to-back years without a playoff berth.
Tigers To Meet With Brad Ausmus This Week
Tigers GM Al Avila will meet with manager Brad Ausmus this week to discuss his future with the team, as MLB.com’s Jason Beck explains. Ausmus says the team hasn’t told him whether it plans to exercise his 2017 option, and his answers to questions from reporters Sunday exuded none-too-subtle frustration about not knowing whether he’ll keep his job.
“You might want to ask whoever’s managing next year,” Ausmus responded to a question about how Bruce Rondon will be used in 2017. When asked about the challenges of being an interim manager (like Brian Snitker, whose Braves the Tigers played this weekend), Ausmus said, “I couldn’t answer that. I’ve never been one, although I’ve been kind of an interim manager for like two years.”
Ausmus says he would still like to return next season. “It’s going to be between me and Al,” he says. “If Al thinks he would rather have someone else, I would respect his decision. If Al would like me to do it, I would love to do it. But to speculate over it is a waste of time.”
Avila praised Ausmus in July, and Ausmus did manage an aging roster to an 86-win season, although the Tigers missed the playoffs for the second straight year. In three seasons on the job, Ausmus holds a 250-234 record.
AL Notes: Kluber, Richards, Sandoval, Castellanos
As if the Indians needed another rotation injury question mark, ace Corey Kluber left yesterday’s contest with a groin strain. Fortunately, the matter does not appear to be of major concern, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports. Kluber was pulled mostly for precautionary reasons — with the division already in hand, Cleveland has little reason to push him. Instead, manager Terry Francona suggested, the aim is “to get him healthy” with the postseason beckoning.
Here’s more from the American League:
- Angels righty Garrett Richards will test his stem-cell-bolstered elbow out against live batters for the first time tomorrow, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. Richards is brimming with confidence in a joint that once seemed certain to cost him all of the 2017 season after already taking most of 2016. Now, he says, “I feel like I could go pitch in a game right now.” Assuming the one-inning simulated game goes well, Richards will throw two instructional league innings and begin ramping up his innings before shutting things back down for what he hopes will largely be a normal winter.
- While a postseason return to the Red Sox for Pablo Sandoval seems rather implausible, manager John Farrell said it isn’t off the table entirely in an appearance on MLB Network on Sirius XM (Twitter link). “He’s done a very good job in rehab,” Farrell said of Sandoval. “In the event of an injury he could be part of the conversation.” Turning to the 30-year-old third baseman, who has only appeared in three games this year and struggled badly ever since coming to Boston, would obviously be something of a last-ditch move. But it’s also quite promising to see that Sandoval is even drawing this kind of consideration, as it suggests that the team is optimistic in his progress — and could perhaps yet receive from value from his sizable contract.
- Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos is ready for an intrasquad game as he continues to work back from a broken bone in his hand, as MLB.com’s Kyle Beery reports. The 24-year-old may yet make it back by the end of the regular season, skipper Brad Ausmus said, which would represent a nice addition if the team is still pushing for a Wild Card spot. Castellanos has broken out this year with a .286/.331/.500 batting line and 18 home runs over 432 plate appearances, which has not only firmly planted him in the team’s plans for the coming seasons but has also set him up nicely for his first season of arbitration eligibility.
Extension Candidate: J.D. Martinez
The Tigers discussed a long-term contract with J.D. Martinez last offseason before settling on a shorter multi-year pact. Martinez’s two-year, $18.5MM deal allowed the two sides to avoid arbitration, settling the outfielder’s salaries for both his second and third years of arbitration eligibility. With Martinez now just over a year removed from free agency in the 2017-18 offseason, Tigers GM Al Avila will surely re-engage Martinez’s agents at RMG Baseball about an extension that will keep the slugger in the Motor City for years to come.
Martinez missed just under seven weeks due to a fracture in his right elbow, a somewhat fluky injury that interrupted an otherwise outstanding season. He entered Wednesday’s action hitting .317/.384/.556 (all of which would be career highs) with 21 homers over 469 plate appearances, plus his 151 wRC+ ranks among the top ten hitters in the sport in that metric of total batting productivity. He is also on pace for a career-best walk rate, as well as his lowest strikeout rate in four years. Since joining the Tigers as an unheralded minor league signing during Spring Training 2014, Martinez has done nothing but rake, delivering a .907 OPS over 1606 PA in a Detroit uniform.
Martinez expressed an interest in being “a Tiger for life” last winter, though his asking price has surely gone up in the wake of his third straight huge season. He has extra leverage in the form of financial security (over $21.5MM in career earnings by the end of next season) and the fact that he’d be in line for a monster contract in the 2017-18 free agent market. If he duplicates his 2014-16 numbers, JDM will have the most earning potential of any hitter in that year’s free agent class. Carlos Gonzalez has a longer track record but he is two years older than Martinez and hasn’t been as impressive of late; the Royals trio of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas can’t be considered locks for huge money based on their problems in 2016; Justin Upton has also struggled this season and may not choose to opt out of his own contract with the Tigers next winter.
Upton’s situation looms as a major factor in the talks between Martinez and the Tigers. Upton has only recently started to hit after a dreadful first half, so he’d need a big rebound year in 2017 to consider opting out. If he chooses to remain in his contract, the Tigers will owe Upton $88.5MM through the 2021 season. That is a sizeable chunk of payroll that, based on this year’s numbers, Detroit would surely prefer to allocate towards keeping Martinez in the fold.