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Royals Sign Will Smith

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The Royals announced the signing of left-hander Will Smith to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee for the CAA client, who could earn up to $1MM in additional incentives. He’d receive $125K for every fifth appearance between 25 and 60 contests.

Smith, 34, returns to the club with whom he made his big league debut back in 2012. Then a starting pitcher, Smith took the ball for 16 turns through the rotation during his age-22 rookie campaign, struggling to a 5.32 ERA and 4.66 FIP across 89 2/3 innings of work. The Royals converted Smith to relief the following season, and the southpaw hasn’t looked back since. He posted a solid 3.24 ERA, 23% better than league average by ERA+, and a 3.03 FIP from 2013-16 across 202 2/3 innings of work split between the Royals, Brewers, and Giants organizations.

Smith missed the entire 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but returned to the mound in 2018 to deliver the finest two seasons of his career. Pitching for San Francisco in 2018-19, Smith posted a 2.66 ERA and 2.71 FIP, striking out a whoping 35.8% of batters faced while racking up 48 saves and earning his lone career All Star appearance during the 2019 season. That dominant performance earned him a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves in free agency the following winter.

The lefty struggled during the first season of that deal, posting a 4.50 ERA with a whopping 7.38 FIP during the shortened 2020 season, though that amounted to just 16 innings of work. The remainder of the contract saw Smith post decent numbers out of the bullpen as the Braves won the World Series in 2021, though he would ultimately be shipped to Houston the following year in a swap that brought Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta. Overall, Smith posted a 3.69 ERA and 4.21 FIP over 127 innings while striking out 27.9% of batters faced and collecting two World Series rings between the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.

In his return to the open market last winter, Smith lingered on the free agent market until late March before ultimately signing with the Rangers on a one-year, $1.5MM guarantee. Though Smith posted a roughly league average 4.40 ERA in 2023, he managed a more palatable 3.36 FIP and recorded 22 saves in 27 chances for Texas last season as they went on to make the postseason for the first time since 2016 before winning the first World Series championship in franchise history and earning Smith his third consecutive World Series ring.

Back on the free agent market once again, Smith wasted no time in agreeing to a deal this winter, and figures to get the opportunity to close for the Royals entering the 2024 campaign. The contract will give the southpaw the opportunity to bounce back on a team with minimal hopes of making the playoffs next season, a similar situation to the one Kansas City offered Aroldis Chapman in 2023 before he joined Smith in Texas following a midseason trade. Meanwhile the Royals are surely hoping that, if they do find themselves on the outside looking in with regards to the playoff race, Smith will have pitched well enough by the time the trade deadline rolls around next summer to net the club a solid return just as Chapman did when he was swapped for Cole Ragans. Ragans, 26 this week, made 12 starts for the Royals down the stretch after the club acquired him from the Rangers and impressed with a 2.64 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate in 71 2/3 innings of work.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Smith and the Royals had agreed to a one-year, $5MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the possibility of $1MM in incentives, which the Associated Press specified.

Royals Exploring Pitching Market, Have Interest In Seth Lugo

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The Royals have been “aggressive” in their search for rotation help this offseason and made an offer to right-hander Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further writes that the Royals are among the teams showing strong interest in right-hander Seth Lugo, who’s drawn widespread interest this winter.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has made no secret about his desire to add to his rotation, plainly stating early in the offseason that “one of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The Royals need at least one arm and could well look to add multiple pieces to the rotation between now and Opening Day. The Royals got a breakout showing from Cole Ragans after acquiring him from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman this past summer, and right-hander Brady Singer is likely locked into a rotation spot even after an up-and-down year (and, more broadly, up-and-down big league tenure in terms of performance). Beyond that, the Royals have veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles signed for next season and are surely still hopeful of getting some quality innings from former top prospects Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Daniel Lynch.

That said, the Royals have been hoping for the quartet of Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Jackson Kowar to eventually emerge at the MLB level for several seasons. That group comprised the nucleus of a vaunted 2018 crop of college arms around whom the Royals hoped to build, but their development hasn’t panned out. Singer had a brilliant 2022 season and took a step back in 2023. Bubic had Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Kowar has been twice traded this offseason and is now in the Mariners organization.

Rosenthal suggests that in their quest to find rotation upgrades, the Royals have been willing to talk about trades of former top catching/outfield prospect MJ Melendez, infielder Michael Massey and catcher Freddy Fermin. Melendez and Massey, however, are coming off dismal 2023 campaigns. The former is a .227/.314/.396 hitter in 1136 MLB plate appearances and has posted bottom-of-the-scale defensive grades both behind the plate and in the outfield corners. The latter got his first full-time look in ’23 but managed only a .229/.274/.381 slash with mixed defensive ratings (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average). Both players still have five seasons of remaining club control.

Fermin, meanwhile, looks to be a late-blooming option capable of handling a regular workload behind the dish, be it for the Royals or another club. He entered the 2023 season with just seven MLB plate appearances but wound up tallying 235 trips to the plate with a .281/.321/.461 output and nine home runs. Defensive Runs Saved credited Fermin at a hearty mark of +8, and both FanGraphs and Statcast credited him as an above average framer. Statcast also tabbed Fermin as league-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and his 31% caught-stealing rate checked in 10 percentage points above the league average.

Age and lack of big league track record notwithstanding, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Fermin and his breakout rookie season. However, that also makes him quite valuable to a Royals club that has an aging Salvador Perez behind the plate. Perez’s defensive ratings have been in a freefall for the past few seasons, and his production at the plate has also begun to wane. The 33-year-old (34 in May) team captain still smacked 23 home runs last year, but his overall .255/.292/.422 batting line was his weakest since 2018. Perez still caught 91 games last year (against 29 at DH), but at some point the Royals could begin playing him more regularly at DH, which would open time for Fermin. Perez is still signed for another two years at a total of $44MM.

Since Rosenthal reports that Kansas City has spoken with the Marlins and Mariners about pitching-related trades, Miami might stand out as a logical team that could have interest in Fermin’s services.  The Fish are in need of catching help, and seem to be open to the idea of dealing more pitching, after already parting ways with a decent chunk of their rotation depth in other trades over the last couple of years.

As for the team’s free-agent pursuits, Lugo is a sensible and logical target both due to his strong platform season and the fact that the Royals also reportedly had interest in him a year ago. After spending the bulk of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Padres, who offered him a chance to start and even included an opt-out in the event that he showed well in a starting role.

That’s exactly how things played out. Lugo took the ball 26 times and posted a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in a career-high 146 1/3 innings. He’s already 34, but Lugo figures to command a much nicer multi-year deal this time around — perhaps reaching three years in length. That the length of his deal will likely be capped due to age should be appealing to the Royals, who typically operate on a tight budget but do have some spending flexibility this winter. Picollo has already said that his club should have at least $30MM to spend.

Royals, Mariners Have Shown Trade Interest In Tyler O’Neill

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The Cardinals have been exploring trade scenarios involving outfielder Tyler O’Neill —  president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged as much at this week’s Winter Meetings — and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the Royals and Mariners are two of the several teams who’ve spoken to the Cards about the 28-year-old O’Neill.

A two-time Gold Glove winner in left field, O’Neill had a monster 2021 season that netted him an eighth-place finish in National League MVP voting but has battled injuries throughout his career. He slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs. He walked at a below-average 7.1% clip and fanned at a lofty 31.3% rate, but it was an undeniably excellent campaign all around. The two seasons since have been decidedly less than that.

From 2022-23, O’Neill has appeared in just 168 games and totaled 649 plate appearances with a .229/.310/.397 slash. Along the way, he’s dealt with shoulder, hamstring, foot and back injuries. Staying on the field has been a problem throughout his big league tenure;  since making his MLB debut back in 2018, O’Neill has been placed on the injured list on 12 different occasions, owing to a wide variety of ailments. He’s controlled for just one more year before becoming a free agent, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects O’Neill to earn a reasonable $5.5MM salary this coming season.

The Cardinals have been seeking bullpen help on the trade market, and it stands to reason that even one year of O’Neill could land them that. Goold notes that they’re also open to packaging him in a larger deal to acquire a front-end rotation upgrade, though such a deal would be far harder to orchestrate. Excellent as O’Neill was in 2021, that was two years ago, and he’s now a one-year bounceback rental. He wouldn’t be a prominent factor in any package for a high-end starter.

As for the two reported suitors, both make some degree of sense. The Mariners could use a right-handed bat to replace free agent Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez, whom they traded to the Diamondbacks earlier in the offseason. Whether O’Neill fits the Mariners’ stated preference of adding more contact to the lineup, however, is an open question. He fanned at 25.2% clip last year — far lower than the 30%-plus marks posted by both Suarez and Hernandez. However, O’Neill whiffed in more than 31% of his plate appearances in his best season and has a career 30% mark.

That said, Seattle’s interest is only natural, considering the Mariners are the team that selected him in the third round of the 2013 draft. That predates president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s time with the team — and it was Dipoto who traded O’Neill to St. Louis in exchange for Marco Gonzales — but there are some longtime holdovers who surely still view O’Neill in a favorable light.

In reporting on the Mariners’ interest in Jorge Soler this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested that the M’s might want to spread their remaining financial resources out among multiple targets. O’Neill would allow them to do that more than Soler, who’ll likely command a salary two to three times as large as O’Neill in free agency. Then again, it’s also possible the M’s could sign Soler to DH and acquire O’Neill to play left field in place of Jarred Kelenic, who was traded to the Braves earlier in the week. The Mariners’ payroll projection right now checks in under $120MM, and Dipoto has spoken on record about how payroll can increase over last year’s $140MM mark.

As for the Royals, they’re lacking in the way of any established big league outfielders. Royals outfielders combined for a lowly .228/.294/.393 batting line in 2023, with the resulting 84 wRC+ ranking 29th in the Majors. O’Neill fits the Royals’ longstanding preference for premium defensive players, and the upside of his 2021 season at the plate is the type of production that the budget-conscious Royals typically can’t afford to pursue in free agency.

At present, the Royals’ outfield mix consists of MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares and Nelson Velazquez. The latter of that quintet surely earned a full look in 2024 with a huge power showing following his acquisition from the Cubs at last year’s deadline, and Melendez has long been one of the organization’s top prospects. None from that bunch has had any sustained MLB success, however, and Melendez — also a catcher — grades out quite poorly from a defensive standpoint.

The Royals are known to be in the market for rotation help, but general manager J.J. Picollo also said earlier in the offseason that a bat who could hit somewhere from third to sixth in the middle of his order would be nice to add. A healthy O’Neill is absolutely that type of bat, and his projected salary fits comfortably within the $30MM+ that Picollo acknowledged he has to spend this winter.

Royals Agree To Minor League Deals With Mike Brosseau, Tyler Duffey, Sam Long

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The Royals announced that they have agreed to terms on minor league deals with infielder Mike Brosseau, left-hander Sam Long and right-handers Tyler Duffey and Dan Altavilla. Reporting on Altavilla’s deal came out yesterday but the other three are new developments.

Brosseau, 30 in March, started the 2023 campaign with the Brewers but hit just .205/.256/.397 in 29 games and was outrighted in July. He then signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but hit just .191/.218/.287 for that club.

It obviously wasn’t an amazing year for Brosseau, but he has some decent showings in his past. He got into 88 games with the Rays over 2019 and 2020, hitting .284/.343/.500 over that time for a wRC+ of 130. He then slumped badly in 2021 before getting flipped to Milwaukee, which led to a bounceback season. He hit .255/.344/.418 in 70 games for the Brewers for a wRC+ of 118.

If he could back to anything close to that, he could be a decent utility player for the Royals. He’s played all four infield positions in his career and has even had short stint in the outfield corners. The club is set at shortstop and first base with Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino but the other infield spots are less secure. Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey are the favorites for third and second base, respectively, but each of them had subpar offensive seasons in 2023.

The Royals recently signed Garrett Hampson to a major league deal, adding some depth all around the roster, but Brosseau should do the same in a non-roster capacity. If Brosseau gets selected at any point, he still has an option remaining, which would allow the Royals to send him back to the minors without exposing him to waivers.

Long, 28, has logged 128 innings over the past three seasons, pitching for the Giants and Athletics. He has a 4.92 earned run average in that time, along with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. The Royals only have two lefty relievers on the roster right now in Jake Brentz and Josh Taylor, both of whom dealt with significant injury issues in 2023. If Long can earn his way onto the roster, he’s out of options but can be retained for future seasons since he has under two years of service time.

Duffey, 33 this month, spent 2023 in the Cubs’ system after signing a minor league deal. At the Triple-A level, he threw 45 1/3 innings with 3.77 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate. He was selected to the club’s roster on the last day of the season and tossed two innings in the final game on the schedule.

He had a really strong run for the Twins over 2019 and 2020, posting a 2.31 ERA over 81 2/3 innings in those two campaigns, striking out 34.2% of opponents while issuing walks at just 6.1% rate. But his ERA jumped to 3.18 in 2021 and 4.91 in 2022. The Royals’ bullpen has plenty of uncertainty after trading away Aroldis Chapman and Scott Barlow last year, perhaps leaving space for someone like Duffey to take advantage.

2023 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.

This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…

1.  Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.

* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.

Astros Acquire Dylan Coleman From Royals

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12:19pm: The Royals announced that they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Carlos Mateo from the Astros in exchange for Coleman.

The 19-year-old Mateo (20 later this month) has pitched in parts of two seasons with Houston’s affiliate in the Dominican Summer League. He’s worked primarily out of the bullpen, pitching a total of 36 innings with a 3.25 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate during that time. Mateo was not ranked among Houston’s top prospects and figures to report to the low levels of Kansas City’s system for the 2024 campaign.

12:10pm: The Royals are trading right-hander Dylan Coleman to the Astros, per a report from Anne Rogers and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. As pointed out by Rogers, this opens a spot on Kansas City’s 40-man roster ahead of this afternoon’s Rule 5 draft. It’s unknown what they are receiving in return but it could be a cash deal.

Coleman, 27, has been on the Royals’ roster since September of 2021, serving as an optionable depth arm in that time. He has 92 2/3 innings of major league experience to this point with an earned run average of 3.88. His 24.1% strikeout rate in that time is above average but he has also walked 13.9% of batters faced. Control was a particular problem in 2023, as he gave free passes to 19.8% of  hitters in the majors and 21.8% in Triple-A.

Despite the command issues, there are reasons for the Astros to be intrigued. For one thing, Coleman still has a couple of options, meaning he won’t require an active roster spot in the short term if the control remains an issue. He also has just over a year of service time, meaning he can be a long-term piece for the club if he gets things on track. His fastball averages in the upper 90s and he has always racked up plenty of strikeouts in the minors.

Coleman will be a project for his new club whereas it would appear the Royals feel they could make better use of that roster spot in the Rule 5 draft, which begins at 1pm Central. The Royals have the second pick, with the Athletics going first.

Royals, Dan Altavilla Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals and right-hander Dan Altavilla are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invite to major league Spring Training, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty is a client of the MAS Agency.

Altavilla, 31, is coming off three mostly lost seasons due to June 2021 Tommy John surgery. He later signed a two-year minor league deal with the Red Sox, with that club realizing Altavilla likely wouldn’t contribute much or anything at all in 2022. He returned to the mound in July of 2023, making four appearances in the Complex League and another four in High-A. In his 12 innings pitched, he allowed four earned runs, walked five opponents and struck out seven. The Sox released him in August.

He didn’t sign with another affiliated club as the season was winding down but did go to the Dominican Republic for winter ball. He’s made 10 appearances for Tigres del Licey, with nine strikeouts, three walks and two earned runs allowed. Heyman reports that he was hitting 98mph in that showing.

Prior to the lengthy injury odyssey, Altavilla had some major league experience with the Mariners and Padres, showing an ability for big strikeouts but also control concerns. He currently has a career earned run average of 4.03 in 116 big league innings. He struck out 26.1% of batters in that time but also walked 12.1%.

The Royals have plenty of room in their bullpen for some guys to step up and take jobs. Scott Barlow and Aroldis Chapman were both traded last year, removing two of the higher-leverage guys. They have since acquired Nick Anderson, but there’s still not a lot of certainty in the relief mix. If Altavilla is in good form and gets a roster spot, he could be retained for another season via arbitration since his service time is still below the five-year mark. He is out of options, however, meaning he wouldn’t have the ability to be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Royals Interested In Lucas Giolito

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Free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito is getting a lot of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com reporting that the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Royals are interested in him. The interest from the Dodgers was already reported but the four other clubs are new mentions.

Giolito, 29, is one of the hardest free agents to value. From 2019 to 2021, he made 72 starts and tossed 427 2/3 innings with a 3.47 earned run average. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced in that time while walking just 8%. His 11.3 wins above replacement in that stretch, per FanGraphs, was seventh among all pitchers in the league.

Things took a bit of a downturn in 2022, at least in terms of results. His ERA jumped to 4.90 and his strikeouts dropped a bit, though his 25.4% rate was still above league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play that year stands out as a clear outlier, as he’s never had that figure finish higher than .274 in any other season. His 4.06 FIP and 3.79 SIERA both suggested he was actually more in line with his previous track record than the ERA would indicate.

He seemed to be back on track in the first half of 2023, making 21 starts for the White Sox with a 3.79 ERA. But things went downhill for him after he was traded to the Angels prior to the deadline. He took the ball six times for the Halos, posting an ERA of 6.89 in those. As that club fell out of contention, he was put on waivers and claimed by the Guardians. Six more starts with that club yielded an even worse ERA of 7.04. His walk rate jumped to 10.8% in the 12 starts after being traded and he also allowed 20 home runs in just 63 1/3 innings.

That poor stretch of play represents such a small sample in a career that now includes over 1,000 big leagues innings, but was unfortunately timed right before his first trip to free agency. MLBTR predicted he would get a two-year, $44MM with an opt-out that lets him potentially return to free agency with a stronger platform.

Each of the four clubs now connected to him are sensible fits since they each are known to need pitching. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in two rotation spots with Brandon Pfaadt likely to be somewhere behind them, but there’s not much certainty beyond that. General manager Mike Hazen has been open about the club’s desire to upgrade the rotation this offseason.

The Mets have added Luis Severino to a rotation that also features Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana, but there are question marks for the back end and even Severino is no guarantee after his poor 2023 campaign.

The Red Sox have plenty of options but none of them concrete. Chris Sale should be in one spot but he hasn’t reached 105 innings pitched in a season since 2019 due to various injuries. Brayan Bello had a decent 2023 season overall but faded later in the year with a 5.49 ERA in the second half. Each of Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford have oscillated between the rotation and bullpen without permanently cementing a spot. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said at the Winter Meetings that the club would be “aggressive” in pursuing upgrades.

The Royals have plenty of questions in their rotation. Cole Ragans had a strong finish after coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade but Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles each had disappointing seasons. General manager J.J. Picollo said this week that the club has about $30MM to spend and adding a starter is one thing on their to-do list. Signing someone like Giolito would likely eat up a decent chunk of that budget and leave little for bullpen upgrades, but it’s at least feasible that they could dedicate more of their resources to the rotation.

Guardians Win Draft Lottery

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The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.

Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Guardians
  2. Reds
  3. Rockies
  4. Athletics
  5. White Sox
  6. Royals
  7. Cardinals
  8. Angels
  9. Pirates
  10. Nationals
  11. Tigers
  12. Red Sox
  13. Giants
  14. Cubs
  15. Mariners
  16. Marlins
  17. Brewers
  18. Rays
  19. Mets
  20. Blue Jays
  21. Twins
  22. Orioles
  23. Dodgers
  24. Padres
  25. Yankees
  26. Braves
  27. Phillies
  28. Astros
  29. Diamondbacks
  30. Rangers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)

This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.

Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.

Picollo: Royals Have At Least $30 Million To Spend This Offseason

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The Royals have been relatively active over the first month of the offseason, inking one of the four free agent position players to sign so far this winter and trading for two pitchers ahead of the non-tender deadline in November. Still, the front office has plenty of work to do if the team is going to improve upon a 56-106 record in 2024. On Monday, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo spoke with members of the media at the Winter Meetings to discuss the team’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Most notably, Picollo revealed that he has at least $30MM to spend in free agency (as relayed by Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star). That could bring the team’s 2024 payroll just over $100MM, a total the Royals have not surpassed since 2019. What’s more, the executive suggested he could spend beyond that estimate for the right players.

Presumably, Picollo will use most of his budget to improve a pitching staff that finished second-last in the AL in ERA, SIERA, and FanGraphs WAR last season. He specified that he would like to acquire one starting pitcher and two relievers, one of whom would hopefully step into the closer’s role.

While Picollo didn’t identify any particular targets, he stated on MLB Network Radio that the Royals “can be competitive” in the price range several free agent starting pitchers have already signed for. Presumably, he’s not referring to Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but instead the next tier down. That means pitchers like Kyle Gibson, Kenta Maeda, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, and Lance Lynn, all of whom signed for an annual average salary in the $11MM to $13MM range.

During his appearance on MLB Network Radio, Picollo also touched on the non-monetary side of free agent negotiations. Factors beyond money are particularly relevant for a rebuilding team like the Royals, as they try to convince free agents they are an attractive destination despite their recent string of losing seasons. “When you’re recruiting free agents they want to know what your plan is,” he said. “So our process has got to be pretty deep and thorough because we’re really selling those players on what we can do for them.”

One name on many fans’ minds is Zack Greinke, who became a free agent following the 2023 season. According to Picollo (and as relayed by Thompson), the Royals are still waiting to hear if the six-time All-Star plans to retire this winter. While he isn’t the star he used to be during his first run with Kansas City, Greinke has been a reliable innings eater for the Royals over the last two seasons, pitching 279 1/3 innings with a 4.38 ERA. Given his popularity within the organization, his solid performance over the past two years, and the team’s lack of pitching depth, one would think the Royals would be interested if Greinke decided to pitch again in 2024, but Picollo stopped short of confirming as much.

He did, however, confirm that MJ Melendez will continue to play the outfield next season. The 25-year-old was once one of the top catching prospects in baseball, but he transitioned to a full-time outfield role this past season. His defense never stood out behind the plate, where he was blocked in the Royals organization by Salvador Perez anyhow. With the emergence of backup catcher Freddy Fermin, and with the way Melendez improved at the plate after he stopped catching in 2023, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the Royals are going to keep him in the outfield going forward.

Finally, Picollo revealed that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is ready to return to normal baseball activities over the winter after missing the final four months of the 2023 season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. According to Thompson, the team will provide further information on his status during today’s media session.

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