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Latest On Yu Darvish

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Yu Darvish’s 2025 debut may be getting closer, as the veteran right-hander threw 48 pitches over three innings of a simulated-game situation on Thursday at the Padres’ Spring Training facility.  Darvish has spent the entire season on the injured list after developing elbow inflammation during spring camp in mid-March, but despite the long layoff, Padres manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that he doesn’t believe Darvish will need much rehab time before making his return to the San Diego roster.

While no specific timeline has been established, Shildt said the team might have Darvish undergo the final stages of rebuilding his arm strength while pitching Major League innings, rather than embarking on a lengthy minor league rehab assignment.  Assuming all is well with Darvish physically, Shildt said the club trusts that Darvish’s veteran know-how would allow him to properly ramp up on the fly while pitching in games.  The Padres would manage Darvish’s workload via inning limits and pitch counts, but even a somewhat limited version of Darvish would still be very helpful for an upcoming busy stretch of the schedule.  As Cassavell notes, the Padres have a stretch of 26 games in 27 days beginning on May 30.

Before such plans can be put into place, of course, Darvish will have to continue taking positive steps in his pitching progression.  Some level of minor league game activity seems likely, as Shildt said that Darvish will have to build up to an 80-pitch limit.  The 38-year-old Darvish has already been thrown multiple bullpen sessions, and Thursday marked the first time since the spring that he faced live batters.

This is the third straight season that Darvish has dealt with some type of elbow problem.  The most serious of the injuries was an olecranon stress reaction that ended his 2023 season in August, and the righty has battled inflammation in each of the last two years.  Darvish also had IL stints in 2024 due to a neck strain and two groin strains, and he also missed more time due to an undisclosed family issue.

Given how Darvish pitched only 95 1/3 innings in 2024 between the regular season and the playoffs, it is perhaps a little surprising that (for now) the Padres aren’t planning for a longer rehab stint in the wake of his latest injury.  Still, Darvish did get most of his Spring Training work in before his elbow inflammation arose, and obviously the Padres aren’t going to take any undue risk with Darvish’s health.

It is perhaps telling that San Diego has kept Darvish just on the 15-day injured list since Opening Day, as a placement on the 60-day IL would mean Darvish can’t be activated until the last week of May.  Since that might end up being Darvish’s timeline anyway, the Friars might well shift Darvish to the 60-day purely for procedural reasons if the team is in need of an extra 40-man roster spot.  But, Darvish’s continued stay on the 15-day IL gives the Padres some flexibility in bringing him back even earlier than that 26 games-in-27 day stretch.

The 24-13 Padres have gotten by just fine without Darvish to date, but needless to say, the rotation will look a lot stronger with the five-time All-Star back in the ranks.  Michael King and Nick Pivetta have both been excellent, but Dylan Cease has been uncharacteristically shaky (despite some strong peripherals), and Randy Vasquez’s shaky peripherals undermine his solid 3.76 ERA.  Multiple off-days in the last two weeks have allowed the Padres to get by without a proper fifth starter for a while, but Stephen Kolek is now lined up to take that role, and he is today’s scheduled starter against the Rockies.

Darvish had a 3.31 ERA over his 81 2/3 frames of regular-season work in 2024, with a 6.6% walk rate that was solidly above average, even if his 23.6% strikeout rate was only slightly above the league-wide midpoint and he allowed much more hard contact than usual. A sharp dropoff can arise suddenly for any pitcher as he ages, and Darvish has already been testing Father Time just by making it into his age-38 season.  This said, the Padres only need Darvish to be a solid mid-rotation arm rather than an ace, and it seems quite possible that he can reach or better that status if he can avoid the injury bug.

The Biggest Trade In Nationals History Looks Better Every Day

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The 2022 Nationals found themselves at a crossroads. Washington had sold at the prior year's trade deadline, shipping Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, sending Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox, dealing Daniel Hudson to the Padres and trading Jon Lester to the Cardinals. The organization's steadfast hope had been that even while rebuilding, Juan Soto would be at the heart of those efforts to build back up. Longtime general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged as much in June, plainly stating on the record that he had no intention of trading Soto.

The Nats offered Soto an extension reportedly worth $440MM in guaranteed money. It would've been the largest deal in MLB history at the time. Only after Soto turned that offer down -- drawing plenty of criticism for doing so -- did Washington begin to seriously explore the possibility of trading him. Moving the game's best young hitter when he had two and a half seasons of club control remaining was no small undertaking. It'd require a seismic haul of young talent -- the type of prospect package that several interested parties simply didn't have the inventory to assemble. Most other clubs simply couldn't stomach the asking price.

A limited market of suitors for Soto emerged. To no one's surprise, the hyper-aggressive Padres entered the bidding and made a strong push. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller throws his hat in the ring when nearly any star-caliber player is available. From the moment Soto hit the market, the Padres -- then armed with one of baseball's best farm systems -- were among the most logical landing spots.

San Diego indeed wound up reeling in their big fish, and it took the type of trade haul we might not see again for years to come. Soto and Josh Bell went from the Nats to the Padres in exchange for shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, outfielder James Wood, outfielder Robert Hassell III and right-hander Jarlin Susana. The Padres also sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Nats as something of a financial counterweight, and in a separate deal they shipped Eric Hosmer -- who'd invoked his no-trade rights to block his inclusion in the Soto trade -- to the Red Sox.

It was a jaw-dropping haul. Abrams, Gore and Hassell had all been top-10 draft picks within the past five seasons. Abrams was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport at the time. Gore had struggled through some mechanical issues in the upper minors but was only a few years removed from being one of the consensus top pitching prospects in the game. Wood was a 19-year-old who was just a year removed from being a second-round pick, and his stock was firmly on the rise at the time of the swap as he ripped through A-ball. Hassell entered the 2022 season as a top-40 prospect in the game. Susana was only 18 at the time of the trade and was in his first season of pro ball after signing out of his native Dominican Republic; Baseball America likened his upside to that of a high schooler who might go in the first round of the MLB draft.

While not every blockbuster trade pans out -- Washington hasn't gotten a ton of value from that Scherzer/Turner stunner, for instance -- the Soto trade has produced a bumper crop that seems likely to form the nucleus of the next contending Nationals club.

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Padres Trade Connor Joe To Reds

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The Reds acquired outfielder Connor Joe from the Padres for minor league reliever Andrew Moore and cash considerations, the teams announced. Cincinnati transferred Tyler Callihan to the 60-day injured list to create a spot on the 40-man roster. San Diego’s roster count falls to 38.

Joe, a San Diego native who attended USD, signed with his hometown team on a $1MM contract during the offseason. He was expected to work as the right-handed half of a left field platoon with Jason Heyward. The Padres tabbed speedster Brandon Lockridge for that role instead, optioning Joe to Triple-A El Paso to begin the season. He was recalled in mid-April and went hitless in nine at-bats. He drew one walk while striking out six times.

The Friars optioned Joe back out last week. He made 16 appearances with El Paso, hitting .267/.405/.350 through 74 trips to the dish. He has yet to hit a home run but has stolen four bases and taken more walks (13) than strikeouts (10). He should have a better path to big league at-bats in Cincinnati. Rece Hinds and Will Benson, each of whom were recalled from Triple-A Louisville this week, are operating as backup outfielders. Starting right fielder Jake Fraley has missed four straight games on account of calf soreness.

Cincinnati did welcome righty-hitting outfielder Austin Hays back from the injured list this afternoon. Their primary corner outfielders, Fraley and Gavin Lux, each hit from the left side. Joe had a productive .251/.353/.418 slash in 363 plate appearances against lefty pitching with the Pirates between 2023-24. He didn’t hit much without the platoon advantage (.230/.314/.382 in 525 PAs), but he’s an affordable bench/platoon player.

This is Joe’s second minor league option year. The Reds can shuttle him back and forth between Cincinnati and Louisville for this season and next if he holds his 40-man roster spot for that long. He’s nearing four years of service time and will be eligible for arbitration for at least two more years if he sticks with the club.

Moore, who is not the former Mariners MLB pitcher of the same name, is a 25-year-old reliever. He was, however, drafted by Seattle in 2021. The Mariners included him alongside Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo as part of the 2022 deadline deal for Luis Castillo. Moore has spent the past few seasons working his way up to Double-A. He combines big strikeout rates with astronomical walk tallies. He did not rank among Baseball America’s write-up of Cincinnati’s top 30 prospects, though Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him 22nd in the Reds’ system just last week.

Longenhagen wrote that Moore’s fastball/slider combination looked like that of a setup man at his peak, though his velocity has been down early this season. He’d need to dramatically improve his control to pitch above a low-leverage role in either case. Moore walked upwards of 17% of opponents across 46 1/3 Double-A innings last year. That resulted in a 4.47 ERA despite an excellent 32.3% strikeout rate. He has surrendered five runs (four earned) on three hits and eight walks with 12 punchouts through his first 8 2/3 frames this season.

As for Callihan, his IL transfer was an inevitability. He broke his left arm in a nasty collision with the left field wall at Truist Park on Monday. He promptly underwent surgery that’ll prevent him from doing any kind of baseball activities for six to eight weeks. He probably won’t be able to resume his rookie season until August or September at the earliest.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images.

Latest On Anthony Rizzo

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Back in February, veteran first baseman and free agent Anthony Rizzo expressed a desire to continue his playing career. However, he also expressed frustration over the limited market for his services and the services of other players like him. Rizzo suggested that teams didn’t “want to pay a few million dollars for veterans,” and said he wasn’t interested in signing a contract that would hurt the market for future players in a similar position. Speaking to Ken Rosenthal and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, he bemoaned “the fact that teams want you to play for basically league minimum. I’m like, you guys are crazy. You’re almost trying to ruin the market for the next guy.”

Rizzo was not credibly connected to any interested teams over the winter. Yet, his comments to Rosenthal and Kuty implied that he had received some interest, just not to the degree he would have liked. That may very well be true, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Thursday that the Padres pursued Rizzo during the offseason. Specifically, he notes that San Diego was interested in Rizzo before pivoting to Jason Heyward instead.

Heyward and Rizzo don’t fill the same niche – Heyward is an outfielder, while Rizzo plays first base – but they are both 35-year-old left-handed batters. Still, the fact that the Padres signed Heyward wouldn’t have precluded them from signing Rizzo from a positional fit/roster-building standpoint. After all, they still needed a DH, and they ultimately signed another lefty batter, Gavin Sheets, to fill that role. What’s more, Sheets actually has a higher guaranteed salary than Heyward, even though he initially joined the team on a minor league deal; Sheets is making $1.6MM this season, while Heyward is guaranteed $1MM. If the Padres were hoping to sign him in that same price range, Rizzo’s February comments make clear he wouldn’t have accepted. And regardless, if San Diego ever made Rizzo a formal, guaranteed offer, it clearly wasn’t the kind of offer the veteran first baseman was seeking.

San Diego would have made an interesting fit for Rizzo. While he is best remembered for his years with the Cubs, he made his MLB debut for the Padres in 2011. Twelve years later, it was in a game against the Padres that Rizzo suffered the injury that led to his post-concussion syndrome diagnosis. Entering that game, Rizzo had an .823 OPS and a 131 wRC+ through his first 231 appearances with the Yankees. From that day onward, he produced a .590 OPS and a 70 wRC+ in 139 contests. So, for both of those reasons, it would have made for a nice story if Rizzo had bounced back with the Padres.

As time goes by, it becomes less and less likely that Rizzo will return to the majors, especially if he remains adamant about signing for much more than the league minimum salary. Theoretically, the Red Sox are a good fit for Rizzo after Triston Casas ruptured his left patellar tendon, likely ending his season. They have already made it clear that neither of their top prospects, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer, will move to first base, nor will Rafael Devers. That leaves Romy Gonzalez (career .672 OPS, 82 wRC+) as the primary first baseman, and he, too, has been dealing with a minor back injury after a collision at first base on Wednesday. Ultimately, the righty-batting Gonzalez might be a fine fill-in against left-handed pitching, but the Red Sox could use another lefty bat with Casas and Masataka Yoshida both on the IL. Nevertheless, Heyman notes that a reunion between Rizzo and the Red Sox – it was Boston who drafted him before trading him to San Diego – does not “seem to be in play.”

Some contending clubs that have struggled against right-handed pitching and could make room for Rizzo in a part-time role at first base or DH include the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Royals. However, there is no reporting to suggest that Rizzo has received interest from any teams since the start of the season.

Padres Release Andrew Bellatti

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The Padres released right-hander Andrew Bellatti, who’d been pitching with their Triple-A affiliate, per the team’s transaction log. The former Phillies righty signed a minor league deal with the Friars late during spring training.

Bellatti has pitched only 4 2/3 innings in El Paso, but they haven’t gone well. The 33-year-old surrendered six runs on 10 hits and five walks with five punchouts en route to a regrettable 11.57 earned run average. That follows up a tough 2024 season spent entirely at the Triple-A level, wherein Bellatti was tagged for a 5.48 ERA while walking more than 16% of his hitters with the Phillies’ top affiliate.

Back in 2022, Bellatti had an out-of-the-blue campaign in Rob Thomson’s bullpen. He’d previously pitched only 26 2/3 MLB frames, most of which came with the Rays in 2015, but after signing a minor league deal with the Phils, Bellatti rattled off 54 1/3 innings with a 3.31 ERA with a massive 33.9% strikeout rate. He was slowed by a triceps injury the following season and recorded just 24 2/3 innings with an inflated 5.11 ERA and diminished walk and strikeout rates.

Overall, Bellatti has a 3.83 ERA in 105 2/3 big league innings, with the vast majority of his production coming back in 2022. The righty averaged 94.4 mph on his four-seamer during that peak season but was sitting at just 91.7 mph in his brief run with the Padres’ top affiliate.

Yuli Gurriel Elects Free Agency

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May 3: Gurriel has cleared outright waivers and elected free agency, the Padres announced this afternoon.

April 29: The Padres are going to designate first baseman Yuli Gurriel for assignment and place infielder Mason McCoy on the 10-day injured list, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. McCoy dislocated his left pinky finger recently. Those will open roster spots for outfielder Jason Heyward and infielder Luis Arráez to be activated from the IL.

Gurriel, 41 in June, signed a minor league deal with the Friars in the offseason. They were looking for some cheap ways to add some offense, with holes in a couple of spots, including their designated hitter and bench mix.

Both Gurriel and Gavin Sheets had good spring performances and cracked the Opening Day roster. Sheets has done a better job of carrying it into the regular season, as he’s hitting .275/.314/.438 for a wRC+ of 111. Gurriel, on the other hand, has produced a dismal .111/.200/.139 line.

Arráez recently landed on the concussion IL, which moved Sheets from a regular designated hitter to a regular first base role. That allowed Gurriel to hang around for while but he would have been hard pressed to find playing time going forward with Arráez back in action. Presumably, Arráez and Sheets will share most of the first base and DH playing time going forward.

The Friars should put Gurriel on waivers in the coming days. Based on his age and recent performance, he’s not likely to garner much interest. He hit .243/.297/.356 for a wRC+ of 82 over the 2022 through 2024 seasons. As a veteran with at least five years of service time, Gurriel would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency in the event he clears waivers.

McCoy’s injury will subtract a bit of infield depth but Heyward might indirectly help with that. Tyler Wade has been covering center field lately due to injuries to Jackson Merrill and Brandon Lockridge. With Heyward now off the IL, he can rejoin the outfield mix alongside Wade, Fernando Tatis Jr., Tirso Ornelas, Oscar González and Connor Joe. If there’s an injury to middle infielders Xander Bogaerts or Jose Iglesias, Wade is capable of moving to the dirt and leaving center field to someone in that group.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

West Notes: Arraez, Padres, Leiter, Tovar, Tellez

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It was a week ago tonight that Luis Arraez was carted off the field in Houston after he collided with Astros second baseman Mauricio Dubon during a play at first base.  Early concerns of a neck or jaw injury dissipated when Arraez was back in the Padres’ clubhouse later that night after a trip to the hospital, and though Arraez was placed on the concussion-related injured list, the three-time batting champ feels he will miss just the minimum seven days.

Arraez took part in a full workout with some other injured Padres players on the field today, and told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell that he is free of concussion symptoms.  Tuesday would mark the earliest that Arraez is eligible to be activated, and he is now just “waiting for the doctor, whatever he says” about a possible okay to resume playing.

As for San Diego’s other injured players, Jason Heyward might also be activated Tuesday, as was working out on the field and is also nearing the 10-day minimum date after his IL placement for knee inflammation.  Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Jackson Merrill and Brandon Lockridge (both out with hamstring injuries) are expected to take part in a live batting-practice session at the Padres’ spring camp on Monday, and Merrill was also feeling good enough to take part in today’s defensive workout.  Jake Cronenworth (rib fracture) is feeling good enough to take part in some light fielding drills, but Sanders notes that Cronenworth hasn’t yet attempted diving for balls.

With the weekend wrapping up, here are some more items from the NL and AL West divisions…

  • The Rangers activated Jack Leiter from the 15-day IL today, with right-hander Gerson Garabito heading to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  A blister issue had kept Leiter from pitching since April 2, and some rust was apparent, as Leiter allowed two earned runs (on four walks and two hits) over 3 1/3 innings in Texas’ 3-2 loss to the Giants.  Leiter tossed 76 pitches and was on a pitch count anyway, though obviously the Rangers would’ve preferred to see the former top prospect get a bit deeper into the game.  Leiter still has an impressive 2.03 ERA over 13 1/3 innings this season, and will continue in the rotation at least until some of the club’s other injured starters return to action.
  • Ezequiel Tovar was eligible to be activated off the Rockies’ 10-day injured list this weekend, but manager Bud Black told the Denver Post’s Jeff Saunders and other reporters that Tovar will need another 7-10 days of recovery time.  Tovar is dealing with a left hip contusion and hasn’t played since April 15, leaving the struggling Rockies short one of their few breakout players from the 2024 season.
  • Rowdy Tellez was a late scratch from the Mariners’ lineup today, as the slugger is apparently still feeling sore after being hit on the hand by a pitch in Saturday’s game.  X-rays were negative on Tellez’s hand, he told Shane Lantz of the Seattle Times and other reporters, so it appears to be a precautionary move on the Mariners’ part.  Seattle has an off-day on Monday, so Tellez will receive two full days off before his next attempt to play.

Padres Select David Morgan

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The Padres announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander David Morgan. Righty Logan Gillaspie is headed for the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain, which creates space for Morgan on the active roster. Righty Bryan Hoeing was transferred to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man roster spot for Morgan.

Morgan, 25, is in line to make his big league debut once he gets into a game. Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Padres back in 2022, the right-hander made just three complex league appearances in his first year with the club. He pitched to decent results in Single- and High-A in 2023 but took a step backwards last year when he struggled to a 5.35 ERA in 22 appearances at the Double-A level. He struck out just 18.9% of his opponents while walking 11.2%, but the first few appearances of his return to the level this year have gone much more smoothly. Morgan has pitched to a 3.12 ERA across seven outings this season with an incredible 50% strikeout rate and just one walked allowed. That dominating run of outings at Double-A was evidently enough for the Padres to give Morgan a look at the big league level despite it lasting just 8 2/3 innings and the righty having no experience at even Triple-A so far in his career.

Morgan’s addition to the roster is made possible by the departure of Logan Gillaspie, who was selected to the roster earlier this month. Gillaspie was added as a long relief option and had pitched to a 2.57 ERA in seven innings despite walking as many batters as he’s struck out (4). The right-hander has now been sidelined by an oblique strain, however, and figures to be on the shelf for at least the next couple of weeks. Gillaspie has made only a handful of big league appearances prior to this year between San Diego and Baltimore, though he’s struggled in those limited outings with a 5.02 ERA in 37 2/3 innings of work entering this season.

As for Hoeing, the righty was acquired alongside Tanner Scott from the Marlins at the trade deadline last year. After struggling in his first two seasons with the Marlins, 2024 proved to be something of a breakout for Hoeing as he pitched to a 2.18 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of work, including a 1.52 ERA in 18 appearances with San Diego down the stretch. Hoeing was considered for a move into the starting rotation by the Padres throughout the offseason, though they ultimately opted to keep him in the bullpen instead. Unfortunately, even a relief role hasn’t been available to him so far this year as he’s been sidelined since the start of camp due to shoulder soreness.

Hoeing will now be unavailable for at least another month, as he’ll first be eligible to be activated on May 26 due to having spent the entire season to this point on the injured list. His transfer to the 60-day IL may seem alarming at first glance, but it appears as though it may be nothing more than a procedural move. After all, MLB.com notes that Hoeing has already begun throwing bullpen sessions. It’s unclear when the righty could begin a rehab assignment, but given his lack of work in camp it would be understandable if the Padres wanted to give him a relatively long one to build up towards a return to the majors. A longer rehab stint could leave Hoeing away from the Padres until late May anyway.

Poll: Should Nick Pivetta’s Hot Start Be Believed?

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Right-hander Nick Pivetta languished for quite some time on the free agent market after he turned down a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox in search of a multi-year deal. The 32-year-old wound up being one of the final pitchers to come off the board this winter. He ultimately signed with the Padres on a four-year, $55MM pact that comes with some protection for the club against Pivetta undergoing significant elbow surgery. That relatively low-cost deal seemingly wouldn’t have been difficult for another club to beat this offseason, and so far Pivetta has made the rotation-needy clubs who passed on him look foolish.

In his first five starts this year, Pivetta has pitched to a 1.20 ERA across 30 frames. He’s struck out 27.0% of his opponents, walked just 6.3%, and made it through seven full innings in the majority of his appearances. For years, Pivetta has been viewed around baseball as a potential breakout arm with electric stuff despite never quite putting it together across a full season in the majors, with a career 4.66 ERA and 4.30 FIP. That led the Phillies to deal him to the Red Sox back in 2020, and that led Boston brass to shuffle Pivetta between the bullpen and rotation during the 2023 season. Even his best seasons with the Red Sox from 2021 to 2024 saw him pitch to a middling 4.33 ERA and 4.20 FIP. Could the veteran’s long-anticipated breakout have finally arrived in his first year with San Diego?

The possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand. After all, Pivetta’s success has come in spite of two his his five starts coming against the Cubs, who sport the NL’s best offense and the most runs scored in all of baseball to this point in the calendar. His first start against Chicago was a lackluster one, with three runs allowed in three innings of work, but his second time facing the club saw him strike six batters out while walking just one with one run allowed in six innings of work. Combine that with the seven scoreless innings he twirled against the Tigers and their own top-10 offense in the sport so far, and it’s hard to say Pivetta has coasted through an easy schedule so far this year.

With that being said, there hasn’t been much in the way of drastic changes. Pivetta’s 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate this year are both better than his career norms, but weaker than last year’s figures of 28.9% and 6.3% respectively. His fastball velocity also remains virtually unchanged from last year, when he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP across 145 2/3 innings of work. That lack of tangible change is a potential red flag that suggests this dominance won’t continue, as are Pivetta’s .205 BABIP allowed, 88% strand rate, and 2.9% home run-to-fly ball ratio.

All of those figures as well out of line with not only Pivetta’s career norms but what can be expected for MLB hurlers in general. Pivetta’s HR/FB is particularly noteworthy, however, as home runs have been the righty’s primary bugaboo throughout his career. Pivetta has allowed the fifth highest number of home runs since he arrived in the majors back in 2017 among all pitchers. Among those with at least 800 innings of work since then, Pivetta’s home run rate is also the fifth-highest, while his home run-to-fly ball ratio is ninth-highest. The long ball has always been what’s held Pivetta back throughout his career, but he’s allowed just one home run in his first five starts.

While this year’s level of home run suppression is all but impossible to imagine being sustainable, the underlying metrics do suggest that Pivetta has done better than usual in terms of keeping the barrel off the ball. His 8.1% barrel rate so far this year would be the lowest he’s posted in any season since 2018 if maintained over a full season, and he’s currently sporting a 37.8% hard-hit rate that would be his lowest since 2019. Combine that with the lowest average exit velocity and highest infield fly ball rate of his career, and it’s not hard to see why Pivetta’s allowing less home runs than ever. Regression back to the mean must be expected, but there’s at least some signs that the veteran could allow fewer homers this year than he has in any of his previous full seasons of work.

On yet another hand, there are generally more home runs in the warmer months. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Pivetta’s career splits form a sort of bell curve, with his ERA lower in the spring and fall but higher in the summer. He has a career 4.01 ERA in March/April, then 4.34 in May, 4.66 in June, 5.11 in July, 6.02 in August, then 3.84 in September/October. As the weather heats up, all pitchers have a harder time keeping the ball in the park, which could be especially noteworthy for Pivetta.

Do MLBTR readers believe in his strong start or is the right-hander going to come back down to Earth eventually? Have your say in the poll below:

Padres Option Kyle Hart

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1:25pm: The Padres have now officially announced that they have optioned Hart and recalled Bergert.

10:25am: Per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, the club will indeed go with a four-man rotation for a while. Bergert is expected to be recalled as the corresponding move. He will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. Since he’s been acting as a starter in Triple-A, he will presumably fill a long relief role with the big league club.

10:10am: The Padres have optioned left-hander Kyle Hart to Triple-A El Paso, according to the club’s transactions tracker at MLB.com. No corresponding move is listed but they will presumably bring up another pitcher before tonight’s game.

The club took a flier on Hart this winter, signing him to a one-year deal with a $1.5MM guarantee. That was a bet on his performance in Korea last year. His previous track record in affiliated ball wasn’t great but he had good results with the KBO’s NC Dinos in 2024. He logged 157 innings over 26 starts with a 2.69 earned run average, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. It’s never a guarantee that a pitcher can transfer those kinds of results to North American ball, but the Friars had rotation needs and a tight budget, so it was an understandable bet to make.

At the start of camp, the Padres had four rotation spots spoken for by Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta. Hart was part of a competition for the fifth spot alongside Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and Stephen Kolek. In the spring, Darvish landed on the IL to start the season due to elbow inflammation, opening a second spot. The competition was also thinned out when Waldron suffered an oblique strain.

That led to Vásquez and Hart both securing rotation spots to open the season. Hart has made five starts thus far, tossing 21 innings with 14 earned runs, leading to an ERA of 6.00. His 6.7% walk rate is quite good but his 17.8% strikeout rate and 33.3% ground ball rate are both subpar marks.

Vásquez has been better at preventing runs but with less impressive stuff under the hood. He has a 3.97 ERA through his five starts but with an 8.9% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet, despite a subpar 39.2% ground ball rate, perhaps suggesting he’s walking a tightrope. His 6.94 SIERA certainly doesn’t expect him to maintain his current run prevention.

Hart, on the other hand, has allowed six home runs already. SIERA, which expects such things to normalize over time, gives Hart a 4.57 so far this year. Regardless, these are small samples and Hart hasn’t been overpowering. The Padres have decided to send him to El Paso, at least for a few starts. Optional assignments for pitchers come with a 15-day minimum, so Hart won’t be able to come back until the club’s series against the Rockies May 9th to 11th.

It’s possible the decision was motivated by the schedule. The Padres were off yesterday and then have further off-days on Monday and Thursday next week. Perhaps they will go with a four-man rotation for a while. They will play six straight from May 2nd to 7th, which will be before Hart can come back. They could use a spot start or a bullpen game to get through that stretch and then bring Hart back up, if they so choose.

It’s also possible that the club could explore Hart as a reliever. Though his results have been uneven so far, lefties are slashing just .100/.100/.100  against him in the early going. Righties, on the other hand, have a monster .333/.386/.698 line. His changeup, a pitch usually used to neutralize hitters with the platoon advantage, has allowed a .533 batting average. Perhaps transitioning to a lefty specialist role would be a good move, though these are tiny samples and this is entirely speculative.

It’s also possible the Padres want to get a look at Kolek. He has a 6.38 ERA through five starts for El Paso but it’s possible to look beyond that and see encouraging signs elsewhere. The Chihuahuas play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, which always requires a grain of salt. Kolek has a .358 batting average on balls in play and 62.9% strand rate, which are both to the unlucky side. His 18% strikeout rate isn’t great but he has kept walks down to a tiny 3.6% level while getting grounders on 56.6% of balls in play. Ryan Bergert is another option on the 40-man roster. He has a 5.16 ERA at El Paso but with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate.

More information on the club’s plans will likely be forthcoming soon. Time will tell if this is just a brief reset for Hart during a light portion of the club’s schedule or a more meaningful pivot. At least for the next few days, they will likely operate with a longer bullpen with two off-days in the next week.

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

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