Royals Sign Seth Lugo To Three-Year Deal
The Royals announced the signing of right-hander Seth Lugo to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the 2025 season. It’s reportedly a $45MM guarantee for the Ballengee Group client. He’ll receive equal salaries of $15MM in each season, meaning he’ll collect $30MM before making the opt-out decision.
Lugo, 34, came up as a starter with the Mets but wound up spending most of his time as a reliever for that club. He reached free agency for the first time a year ago and was able to secure a gig with the Padres that allowed him to try his hand at starting again. It was a two-year, $15MM pact that allowed him opt out after the first year if his return to a rotation went well.
The move could hardly have gone much better. Lugo’s arm held up under the new workload conditions, as he made just one trip to the injured list all year, missing about a month due to a left calf strain. He took the ball 26 times and logged 146 1/3 innings with an earned run average of 3.57. He struck out 23.2% of batters he faced, walked just 6% and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. That made his opt-out decision an easy one, as he left $7.5MM on the table and returned to the open market, with MLBTR predicting he could secure a three-year, $42MM deal this offseason.
Starting pitching has reportedly been in high demand this winter but Lugo’s market was never going to go too crazy due to his age. But given that he would be limited to a relatively modest deal, he was a plausible fit with far more clubs than the top names. Last month, it was reported by Robert Murray of FanSided that “more than half the league” was interested. The Tigers, Dodgers and Red Sox were some of the specific clubs named with interest in his services, but so were the Royals.
Starting pitching has been an ongoing issue in Kansas City for a few years now, with their plans for a homegrown pitching staff largely falling short of expectations. In 2018, the club had five picks in the first 58 selections of the draft and used all of those on pitchers: Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch IV, Kris Bubic and Jonathan Bowlan. None of those picks looks amazing at the moment.
Singer looked to break out in 2022 when he posted an ERA of 3.23 but that jumped to 5.52 this year. Kowar has been rocked for an ERA of 9.12 in his first 74 innings and was traded away this offseason. Lynch has a 5.18 ERA through his first 252 MLB innings. Bubic hasn’t been great for most of his career. He showed some encouraging signs of development at the start of 2023 before requiring Tommy John surgery after just three starts. Bowlan has just three major league innings but his minor league ERA has been just under 6.00 in the past two seasons.
The struggles of those drafted players, as well as from free agent signee Jordan Lyles, led to the club’s starters posting a collective ERA of 5.12 in 2023. Only the Reds, Athletics and Rockies were worse. General manager J.J. Picollo clearly stated that adding starting pitching was a goal this offseason and that the club should have about $30MM to spend on upgrading the 2024 club. This deal will accomplish the goal of adding to the rotation while using half of the available funds. For Lugo, he obviously made some wise decisions, both in returning to the rotation and returning to the open market this winter.
One bright spot in the club’s rotation last year was the breakout of Cole Ragans. After being acquired from the Rangers in the deadline deal that sent Aroldis Chapman the other way, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts for his new club. He and Lugo should be atop the club’s rotation next year. Singer should be in there as well, looking to bounce back into something closer to his 2022 form. Lyles is in a comparable position, having registered a 4.42 ERA in 2022 but a 6.28 in the most recent season. He’s still owed $8.5MM and hasn’t been on the injured list since 2019 so he will probably get another opportunity to eat some innings. Pitchers like Lynch, Alec Marsh, Ángel Zerpa and others could be options for the back end but the club could also look for more external additions as the offseason continues.
As mentioned, Picollo used $30MM as a ballpark figure for available funds. The club also agreed to a deal with reliever Chris Stratton today, which comes with a $4MM guarantee, and a $5MM deal with Will Smith on the weekend. When combined with Lugo’s $15MM salary next year, that’s $24MM agreed to in the past few days.
Anne Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were nearing agreement on a deal. Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the three-year term and Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $45MM guarantee. Feinsand first reported on the opt-out while Robert Murray of FanSided relayed the even distribution of the money.
Royals Trade Taylor Clarke To Brewers
The Brewers and Royals have agreed to a trade sending right-handed reliever Taylor Clarke from Kansas City to Milwaukee in exchange for minor league righty Ryan Brady and minor league infielder Cam Devanney, the teams announced Thursday. The trade of Clarke opens a spot on the Royals’ 40-man roster for newly signed Seth Lugo, whose three-year $45MM contract (the third year of which is a player option) is now official. Neither Brady nor Devanney is on the 40-man roster.
Clarke, 30, has spent the past two seasons in Kansas City after opening his career with a three-year stint in Arizona. He enjoyed a solid 2022 campaign with the Royals, tallying 49 innings of 4.04 ERA ball out of the bullpen with a roughly average 23.6% strikeout rate and a brilliant 3.9% walk rate.
That success didn’t carry over to the 2023 season, however. Clarke pitched 59 innings — his highest total since working as a starter with the D-backs as a rookie in 2019 — but was clobbered for a 5.95 ERA. His 24.4% strikeout rate was a slight improvement over the prior season, but walk rate more than doubled to 9%. Clarke also found himself far more susceptible to unfavorable contact; his opponents’ “barreled” ball rate more than doubled from 6.2% to 12.6%, and his HR/9 mark accordingly exploded, soaring from a manageable 1.10 to 1.83.
Rough season or not, Clarke averages 95 mph on his heater, can miss bats at an average or better rate and has a minor league option remaining. That makes him a decent depth pickup for a Brewers club that tends to rotate quite a few arms through the final couple spots in the bullpen. Clarke and the Royals agreed to a pre-tender deal in November, one that commits $1.25MM to the righty. That avoided a hearing in his second season of arbitration eligibility, and he’ll remain under team control through the 2025 campaign.
Brady, 25 in March, joined the Brewers as an undrafted free agent in the summer of 2022. The former BYU righty has delivered excellent results since turning pro, albeit primarily against younger competition. Brady debuted with Milwaukee’s affiliate in the Arizona Complex League in 2022 and split the 2023 season between High-A (49 innings) and Double-A (28 innings). He’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA at each stop, working to a composite 2.67 earned run average with a 24.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 50% ground-ball rate in 81 professional innings. Brady wasn’t ranked among the Brewers’ top prospects on any major publication, but he’ll bring a solid track record to the upper levels of Kansas City’s system.
Devanney, 27 in April, was Milwaukee’s 15th-round pick back in 2019. He’s played primarily shortstop in pro ball (1728 innings) but also has considerable experience at third base (730 innings) and second base (515 innings) in addition to brief looks at first base and in left field.
Devanney spent the 2023 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club in Nashville, where he batted .271/.362/.461 in 390 plate appearances. That was about seven percent better than average, by measure of wRC+, in a hitter-friendly setting. Devanney walked at a healthy 11.8% clip against a lower-than-average 18.2% strikeout rate. He’s improved his bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline in recent seasons while also showing more power. Devanney entered the 2022 season with 12 career home runs, but he popped 23 long balls in 2022 and connected on another 11 this past season. He’s a right-handed hitter who torched lefties at a .318/.400/.534 clip this year and a .307/.384/.526 clip the year prior. Devanney isn’t a threat on the basepaths and has more pedestrian numbers versus righties, but he could be a lefty-mashing utility infielder if things go well.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Brewers were acquiring Clarke. Jon Heyman of the New York Post added that two minor leaguers were going to the Royals in the deal.
Royals Finalizing Deal With Chris Stratton
The Royals are close to securing their second free-agent pitcher of the day, as they’re reported to be finalizing a two-year, $8MM deal with reliever Chris Stratton. The contract will pay the McKinnis Sports client $3.5MM in 2024 when finalized, and there’s a $500K buyout on a $4.5MM player option for the 2025 season. Kansas City also agreed to terms with righty Seth Lugo on a three-year contract in near simultaneous fashion.
Stratton, 33, has been a quality middle-inning arm for the Pirates, Cardinals and Rangers over the past four seasons, tallying 255 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in that time. Along the way, he’s fanned 24.5% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate with a 42% ground-ball rate and 0.85 homers per nine frames. Of that trio, only the Pirates regularly used him in high-leverage spots, but Stratton still collected 11 saves and 27 holds in that time (mostly coming in Pittsburgh).
Stratton has regularly worked multiple innings, evidenced by the fact that those 255 1/3 frames came over the life of just 219 appearances. He averaged just shy of 1 1/3 innings per appearance in 2023, topping out with a three-inning appearance for Texas on Aug. 12. Overall, 36 of this past season’s 64 appearances saw Stratton record at least four outs.
It’s fairly surprising to see Stratton secure an opt-out provision in his contract. Middle relievers of this ilk typically haven’t been afforded that luxury, although the Reds did give Emilio Pagan an opt-out after his first season earlier this month. For Kansas City, perhaps that was a necessary bridge to cross in order to sway a reliever they were prioritizing to sign there rather than with a more clear-cut contender. Regardless, Stratton will now get the benefit of pitching the 2024 campaign in a pitcher-friendly home park — likely with more leverage opportunities than many contending clubs might’ve otherwise offered. If it all goes well, he could be set up nicely next winter, age notwithstanding.
Stratton is the second bullpen addition for the Royals this week. Kansas City also agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal with left-hander Will Smith over the weekend. That gives the Royals a pair of affordable veterans to pair with 27-year-old James McArthur, whose overall 4.63 ERA masks the dominant finish he enjoyed in 2023; from Sept. 2 onward, McArthur rattled off 16 1/3 shutout innings with 19 strikeouts (35.8% strikeout rate) and no walks. Small sample or not, he clearly thrust himself into the team’s late-inning mix with a performance like that. The Royals also picked up former Rays and Braves reliever Nick Anderson in a swap with Atlanta earlier in the winter; Anderson has been prone to injury but boasts a 2.93 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate in 122 2/3 career innings when healthy.
The additions of Stratton and Smith tack about $9MM onto the 2024 payroll, and today’s agreement with Lugo adds another $15MM. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said earlier in the month that he had at least $30MM to spend (for the 2024 season, not overall). That would leave the Royals with at least another $6MM or so to put toward improvements for the current roster, if not a bit more. Kansas City has also reportedly been active in the trade market, with names like MJ Melendez, Freddy Fermin and Michael Massey among those on which they’re said to be comfortable listening. Even if the budget is a bit tight for another notable free-agent move, it’s possible a deal for rotation and/or bullpen help could come together via the trade market.
Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were finalizing a deal. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman added financial details.
Royals Designate Collin Snider For Assignment
The Royals announced Monday that they’ve designated right-handed reliever Collin Snider for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to veteran lefty reliever Will Smith, whose previously reported one-year deal with Kansas City is now official.
Snider, 28, has appeared in each of the past two seasons with the Royals — his first two years of big league experience. In 54 2/3 innings spread over the life of 60 appearances, he’s pitched to a 5.93 ERA with a 13.4% strikeout rate against an 11.4% walk rate. He walked more hitters (13) than he struck out (11) in 20 1/3 innings this past season.
It’s been a tough first look in the majors for Snider, who’s also scuffled in parts of three Triple-A seasons. He averages 95.7 mph on his sinker, however, and has racked up ground-balls at an impressive 51.9% clip in the big leagues. That hasn’t helped him to keep runs off the board, but Snider is a hard-throwing 28-year-old with strong ground-ball tendencies and a minor league option remaining — and his slider also received strong reviews later during his prospect days in the Royals’ system.
The Royals will have a week to either find a trade partner for Snider or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. His velocity, ground-ball rate, slider and remaining option might be interesting enough for another club with more 40-man space to take a look. If not, he’ll very likely be assigned outright to Triple-A Omaha and remain with the organization as a non-40-man player.
Royals Have Had Discussions With Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty
The Royals’ wide-ranging search for rotation help has led to discussions with free agents Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Kansas City has also been linked to free agents Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo within the past week.
Royals general manager J.J. Picollo has said on multiple occasions this winter that he’s hoping to bolster his starting rotation, and he recently acknowledged that his club has at least $30MM to spend this offseason. The Royals aren’t likely to be serious players for top-of-the-market arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell, but the list of names to which they’ve already been tied suggests they’re quite active in the second and third tiers of the market for starting pitching help.
Both Wacha and Flaherty figure to be in the Royals’ price range, landing annual values that fall well shy of that rough $30MM annual rate. Wacha’s two-year, $32MM club option was bought out by the Padres at season’s end, but after posting consecutive seasons with 125-plus innings and ERAs of 3.32 and 3.22, he has a case for a three-year pact — albeit perhaps at a lesser rate than the $16MM which San Diego declined to pay (or pick up and attempt to trade him at).
Over the past two seasons, between the Red Sox and Padres, Wacha has posted a combined 3.27 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 37.7% ground-ball rate. Despite being more of a fly-ball pitcher, he’s allowed a manageable 1.14 homers per nine frames. His 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate are both a bit lower than this past season’s leaguewide averages (89 mph, 39.2%), which helps to mitigate the impact of a below-average strikeout rate. Wacha has dramatically reduced his reliance on a four-seam fastball over the past two seasons. He’s steadily increased his usage of a sinker and changeup in that time, posting new career-high usage rates for each pitch in both 2022 and 2023.
The broader question with Wacha is one of durability. He’s been placed on the injured list nine times in his MLB career — five of them due to right shoulder issues. Wacha landed on the IL with a stress reaction in his shoulder back in 2014, and he’s since had shoulder-related IL trips in 2016, 2020, 2022 and 2023. He’s also missed time with one-off oblique, hamstring, knee and intercostal injuries. Most recently, he missed six weeks of the 2023 summer with shoulder inflammation. However, he also posted a 3.88 ERA in 48 2/3 innings after returning and closed out the year with consecutive seven-inning gems (two total runs allowed on nine hits and two walks with 13 strikeouts).
Turning to Wacha’s former Cardinals teammate, Flaherty isn’t that far removed from looking the part of a blossoming ace. A first-round pick and top prospect before his big league debut, the right-hander logged a 3.34 ERA through 151 innings during his first full MLB campaign back in 2018. He was even better in 2019, tossing a career-best 196 1/3 innings with a brilliant 2.75 earned run average, excellent 29.9% strikeout rate and lower-than-average 7.1% walk rate. Unfortunately, he battled shoulder troubles of his own while pitching just 154 1/3 innings combined from 2020-2022.
This past season, Flaherty split the year between the Cardinals and Orioles, enjoying his healthiest year since 2019 but also displaying rather pedestrian results. Flaherty’s 4.99 ERA stands as an obvious eyesore, and his 22.8% strikeout rate was more or less in line with the league average. His 10.6% walk rate was a good bit worse than average. His fastball, which averaged 94.5 mph in that brilliant 2019 season, sat at 93.2 mph in 2023.
It obviously wasn’t Flaherty’s best work, but even with the downturn in results and durability concerns, there’s reason to believe he could yet command a multi-year deal. Flaherty only turned 28 in October, and a team might view him as a prime-aged rebound candidate who could pitch near the top of a rotation in a best-case scenario. He’d be an upside play based more on his prior heights than his 2023 output, but even if things don’t pan out, a two- or three-year deal likely wouldn’t break the bank.
Recent three-year deals for pitchers in this tier have generally landed around $12-13MM per season (e.g. Anthony DeSclafani, Yusei Kikuchi, Zach Eflin). It’s similarly feasible that Flaherty might just prefer a one-year deal that’d allow him to return to market next winter — although he could also get there via an opt-out. There are various contractual forms he can and likely is considering, but he’s unlikely to be prohibitively expensive in any of those scenarios, given Picollo’s prior comments regarding the team’s payroll flexibility.
Kansas City’s rotation currently projects to include Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles. Candidates for the final two spots include Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh and Max Castillo, among others, but the Royals are hoping to add at least one, if not two veteran arms to supplement the bunch.
Royals Interested In Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman is among the many pitchers the Royals “appear to [have] on their radar,” the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (X link). Rotation help is a stated goal of the Kansas City offseason, and the club has been linked to such other free agents as Seth Lugo, Lucas Giolito, and the now-signed Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde, as well as trade targets on teams like the Mariners and Marlins.
Stroman is another name that would pretty much instantly become the de facto ace of a largely unproven K.C. rotation. Cole Ragans looked tremendous after being dealt to the Royals in the Aroldis Chapman trade, but Ragans has only 136 Major League innings on his resume. The rest of the Royals’ homegrown young arms struggled across the board, as did veterans Jordan Lyles, Zack Greinke, and Brad Keller. With the latter two now free agents, the 2024 rotation currently lines up as Ragans, Lyles, Brady Singer, and then question marks.
It wasn’t exactly a clean season for Stroman either last year, as injuries spoiled what was initially shaping up to be a very strong 2023 campaign. Stroman had a 3.95 ERA over 136 2/3 innings, which broke down as a 2.96 ERA in 112 2/3 frames prior to the All-Star break, and then a 8.64 ERA over his final 24 innings of the season. The right-hander missed about six weeks due to hip inflammation and then a cartilage fracture in his right ribcage, and thus the Cubs limited to Stroman to shortened starts and bullpen work after he returned from the injured list in September.
With injuries also hampering Stroman in 2022, some durability questions naturally have to be asked as the righty enters his age-33 season. That said, Stroman chose to bet on himself by exercising the opt-out clause in his contract with the Cubs, leaving behind a $21MM salary for 2024 in search of a larger pact in the free agent market.
MLBTR predicted a two-year, $44MM deal for Stroman, who ranked 18th on our top 50 free agents list. This projection acts as reflects his recent injury history while still locking in some extra money and security. Of course, only the market will determine how accurate this prediction was, and if Stroman’s price tag does approach a $22MM average annual value, it might put him out of Kansas City’s spending range.
GM J.J. Picollo recently said that the Royals have at least $30MM available on free agents this winter, as ownership is willing to allocate a bit more payroll than usual in order to address the club’s pitching needs and simply to help right the ship after a dreadful 106-loss season. Stroman making over $20MM would alone eat up a good portion of that budget, but the fact that the Royals are even considering Stroman, Lugo, or even Gray indicates that Kansas City is prepared to make a relatively big splash for a larger upgrade. Likewise, it should be noted that the Royals could also still look to obtain pitching help in trades, though giving up prospects would represent a different kind of cost than simply spending on a free agent.
Picollo made a point of noting how the Royals (and other rebuilding teams) need to work harder to convince veteran free agents to join a club that doesn’t look like a contender for 2024 or perhaps even in the near future. That said, Stroman was willing to join the Cubs two years ago when Chicago was in the midst of a rebuild, so he could perhaps be amendable to joining the Royals if the price is right and if Stroman has confidence that the franchise is on the right track. It also can’t be ruled out that Stroman might view K.C. as something of a stopover, whether via a trade at the deadline or perhaps another contractual opt-out clause.
Royals Sign Will Smith
The Royals announced the signing of left-hander Will Smith to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee for the CAA client, who could earn up to $1MM in additional incentives. He’d receive $125K for every fifth appearance between 25 and 60 contests.
Smith, 34, returns to the club with whom he made his big league debut back in 2012. Then a starting pitcher, Smith took the ball for 16 turns through the rotation during his age-22 rookie campaign, struggling to a 5.32 ERA and 4.66 FIP across 89 2/3 innings of work. The Royals converted Smith to relief the following season, and the southpaw hasn’t looked back since. He posted a solid 3.24 ERA, 23% better than league average by ERA+, and a 3.03 FIP from 2013-16 across 202 2/3 innings of work split between the Royals, Brewers, and Giants organizations.
Smith missed the entire 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but returned to the mound in 2018 to deliver the finest two seasons of his career. Pitching for San Francisco in 2018-19, Smith posted a 2.66 ERA and 2.71 FIP, striking out a whoping 35.8% of batters faced while racking up 48 saves and earning his lone career All Star appearance during the 2019 season. That dominant performance earned him a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves in free agency the following winter.
The lefty struggled during the first season of that deal, posting a 4.50 ERA with a whopping 7.38 FIP during the shortened 2020 season, though that amounted to just 16 innings of work. The remainder of the contract saw Smith post decent numbers out of the bullpen as the Braves won the World Series in 2021, though he would ultimately be shipped to Houston the following year in a swap that brought Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta. Overall, Smith posted a 3.69 ERA and 4.21 FIP over 127 innings while striking out 27.9% of batters faced and collecting two World Series rings between the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.
In his return to the open market last winter, Smith lingered on the free agent market until late March before ultimately signing with the Rangers on a one-year, $1.5MM guarantee. Though Smith posted a roughly league average 4.40 ERA in 2023, he managed a more palatable 3.36 FIP and recorded 22 saves in 27 chances for Texas last season as they went on to make the postseason for the first time since 2016 before winning the first World Series championship in franchise history and earning Smith his third consecutive World Series ring.
Back on the free agent market once again, Smith wasted no time in agreeing to a deal this winter, and figures to get the opportunity to close for the Royals entering the 2024 campaign. The contract will give the southpaw the opportunity to bounce back on a team with minimal hopes of making the playoffs next season, a similar situation to the one Kansas City offered Aroldis Chapman in 2023 before he joined Smith in Texas following a midseason trade. Meanwhile the Royals are surely hoping that, if they do find themselves on the outside looking in with regards to the playoff race, Smith will have pitched well enough by the time the trade deadline rolls around next summer to net the club a solid return just as Chapman did when he was swapped for Cole Ragans. Ragans, 26 this week, made 12 starts for the Royals down the stretch after the club acquired him from the Rangers and impressed with a 2.64 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate in 71 2/3 innings of work.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Smith and the Royals had agreed to a one-year, $5MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the possibility of $1MM in incentives, which the Associated Press specified.
Royals Exploring Pitching Market, Have Interest In Seth Lugo
The Royals have been “aggressive” in their search for rotation help this offseason and made an offer to right-hander Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further writes that the Royals are among the teams showing strong interest in right-hander Seth Lugo, who’s drawn widespread interest this winter.
Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has made no secret about his desire to add to his rotation, plainly stating early in the offseason that “one of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The Royals need at least one arm and could well look to add multiple pieces to the rotation between now and Opening Day. The Royals got a breakout showing from Cole Ragans after acquiring him from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman this past summer, and right-hander Brady Singer is likely locked into a rotation spot even after an up-and-down year (and, more broadly, up-and-down big league tenure in terms of performance). Beyond that, the Royals have veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles signed for next season and are surely still hopeful of getting some quality innings from former top prospects Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Daniel Lynch.
That said, the Royals have been hoping for the quartet of Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Jackson Kowar to eventually emerge at the MLB level for several seasons. That group comprised the nucleus of a vaunted 2018 crop of college arms around whom the Royals hoped to build, but their development hasn’t panned out. Singer had a brilliant 2022 season and took a step back in 2023. Bubic had Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Kowar has been twice traded this offseason and is now in the Mariners organization.
Rosenthal suggests that in their quest to find rotation upgrades, the Royals have been willing to talk about trades of former top catching/outfield prospect MJ Melendez, infielder Michael Massey and catcher Freddy Fermin. Melendez and Massey, however, are coming off dismal 2023 campaigns. The former is a .227/.314/.396 hitter in 1136 MLB plate appearances and has posted bottom-of-the-scale defensive grades both behind the plate and in the outfield corners. The latter got his first full-time look in ’23 but managed only a .229/.274/.381 slash with mixed defensive ratings (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average). Both players still have five seasons of remaining club control.
Fermin, meanwhile, looks to be a late-blooming option capable of handling a regular workload behind the dish, be it for the Royals or another club. He entered the 2023 season with just seven MLB plate appearances but wound up tallying 235 trips to the plate with a .281/.321/.461 output and nine home runs. Defensive Runs Saved credited Fermin at a hearty mark of +8, and both FanGraphs and Statcast credited him as an above average framer. Statcast also tabbed Fermin as league-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and his 31% caught-stealing rate checked in 10 percentage points above the league average.
Age and lack of big league track record notwithstanding, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Fermin and his breakout rookie season. However, that also makes him quite valuable to a Royals club that has an aging Salvador Perez behind the plate. Perez’s defensive ratings have been in a freefall for the past few seasons, and his production at the plate has also begun to wane. The 33-year-old (34 in May) team captain still smacked 23 home runs last year, but his overall .255/.292/.422 batting line was his weakest since 2018. Perez still caught 91 games last year (against 29 at DH), but at some point the Royals could begin playing him more regularly at DH, which would open time for Fermin. Perez is still signed for another two years at a total of $44MM.
Since Rosenthal reports that Kansas City has spoken with the Marlins and Mariners about pitching-related trades, Miami might stand out as a logical team that could have interest in Fermin’s services. The Fish are in need of catching help, and seem to be open to the idea of dealing more pitching, after already parting ways with a decent chunk of their rotation depth in other trades over the last couple of years.
As for the team’s free-agent pursuits, Lugo is a sensible and logical target both due to his strong platform season and the fact that the Royals also reportedly had interest in him a year ago. After spending the bulk of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Padres, who offered him a chance to start and even included an opt-out in the event that he showed well in a starting role.
That’s exactly how things played out. Lugo took the ball 26 times and posted a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in a career-high 146 1/3 innings. He’s already 34, but Lugo figures to command a much nicer multi-year deal this time around — perhaps reaching three years in length. That the length of his deal will likely be capped due to age should be appealing to the Royals, who typically operate on a tight budget but do have some spending flexibility this winter. Picollo has already said that his club should have at least $30MM to spend.
Royals, Mariners Have Shown Trade Interest In Tyler O’Neill
The Cardinals have been exploring trade scenarios involving outfielder Tyler O’Neill — president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged as much at this week’s Winter Meetings — and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the Royals and Mariners are two of the several teams who’ve spoken to the Cards about the 28-year-old O’Neill.
A two-time Gold Glove winner in left field, O’Neill had a monster 2021 season that netted him an eighth-place finish in National League MVP voting but has battled injuries throughout his career. He slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs. He walked at a below-average 7.1% clip and fanned at a lofty 31.3% rate, but it was an undeniably excellent campaign all around. The two seasons since have been decidedly less than that.
From 2022-23, O’Neill has appeared in just 168 games and totaled 649 plate appearances with a .229/.310/.397 slash. Along the way, he’s dealt with shoulder, hamstring, foot and back injuries. Staying on the field has been a problem throughout his big league tenure; since making his MLB debut back in 2018, O’Neill has been placed on the injured list on 12 different occasions, owing to a wide variety of ailments. He’s controlled for just one more year before becoming a free agent, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects O’Neill to earn a reasonable $5.5MM salary this coming season.
The Cardinals have been seeking bullpen help on the trade market, and it stands to reason that even one year of O’Neill could land them that. Goold notes that they’re also open to packaging him in a larger deal to acquire a front-end rotation upgrade, though such a deal would be far harder to orchestrate. Excellent as O’Neill was in 2021, that was two years ago, and he’s now a one-year bounceback rental. He wouldn’t be a prominent factor in any package for a high-end starter.
As for the two reported suitors, both make some degree of sense. The Mariners could use a right-handed bat to replace free agent Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez, whom they traded to the Diamondbacks earlier in the offseason. Whether O’Neill fits the Mariners’ stated preference of adding more contact to the lineup, however, is an open question. He fanned at 25.2% clip last year — far lower than the 30%-plus marks posted by both Suarez and Hernandez. However, O’Neill whiffed in more than 31% of his plate appearances in his best season and has a career 30% mark.
That said, Seattle’s interest is only natural, considering the Mariners are the team that selected him in the third round of the 2013 draft. That predates president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s time with the team — and it was Dipoto who traded O’Neill to St. Louis in exchange for Marco Gonzales — but there are some longtime holdovers who surely still view O’Neill in a favorable light.
In reporting on the Mariners’ interest in Jorge Soler this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested that the M’s might want to spread their remaining financial resources out among multiple targets. O’Neill would allow them to do that more than Soler, who’ll likely command a salary two to three times as large as O’Neill in free agency. Then again, it’s also possible the M’s could sign Soler to DH and acquire O’Neill to play left field in place of Jarred Kelenic, who was traded to the Braves earlier in the week. The Mariners’ payroll projection right now checks in under $120MM, and Dipoto has spoken on record about how payroll can increase over last year’s $140MM mark.
As for the Royals, they’re lacking in the way of any established big league outfielders. Royals outfielders combined for a lowly .228/.294/.393 batting line in 2023, with the resulting 84 wRC+ ranking 29th in the Majors. O’Neill fits the Royals’ longstanding preference for premium defensive players, and the upside of his 2021 season at the plate is the type of production that the budget-conscious Royals typically can’t afford to pursue in free agency.
At present, the Royals’ outfield mix consists of MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares and Nelson Velazquez. The latter of that quintet surely earned a full look in 2024 with a huge power showing following his acquisition from the Cubs at last year’s deadline, and Melendez has long been one of the organization’s top prospects. None from that bunch has had any sustained MLB success, however, and Melendez — also a catcher — grades out quite poorly from a defensive standpoint.
The Royals are known to be in the market for rotation help, but general manager J.J. Picollo also said earlier in the offseason that a bat who could hit somewhere from third to sixth in the middle of his order would be nice to add. A healthy O’Neill is absolutely that type of bat, and his projected salary fits comfortably within the $30MM+ that Picollo acknowledged he has to spend this winter.
Royals Agree To Minor League Deals With Mike Brosseau, Tyler Duffey, Sam Long
The Royals announced that they have agreed to terms on minor league deals with infielder Mike Brosseau, left-hander Sam Long and right-handers Tyler Duffey and Dan Altavilla. Reporting on Altavilla’s deal came out yesterday but the other three are new developments.
Brosseau, 30 in March, started the 2023 campaign with the Brewers but hit just .205/.256/.397 in 29 games and was outrighted in July. He then signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but hit just .191/.218/.287 for that club.
It obviously wasn’t an amazing year for Brosseau, but he has some decent showings in his past. He got into 88 games with the Rays over 2019 and 2020, hitting .284/.343/.500 over that time for a wRC+ of 130. He then slumped badly in 2021 before getting flipped to Milwaukee, which led to a bounceback season. He hit .255/.344/.418 in 70 games for the Brewers for a wRC+ of 118.
If he could back to anything close to that, he could be a decent utility player for the Royals. He’s played all four infield positions in his career and has even had short stint in the outfield corners. The club is set at shortstop and first base with Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino but the other infield spots are less secure. Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey are the favorites for third and second base, respectively, but each of them had subpar offensive seasons in 2023.
The Royals recently signed Garrett Hampson to a major league deal, adding some depth all around the roster, but Brosseau should do the same in a non-roster capacity. If Brosseau gets selected at any point, he still has an option remaining, which would allow the Royals to send him back to the minors without exposing him to waivers.
Long, 28, has logged 128 innings over the past three seasons, pitching for the Giants and Athletics. He has a 4.92 earned run average in that time, along with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. The Royals only have two lefty relievers on the roster right now in Jake Brentz and Josh Taylor, both of whom dealt with significant injury issues in 2023. If Long can earn his way onto the roster, he’s out of options but can be retained for future seasons since he has under two years of service time.
Duffey, 33 this month, spent 2023 in the Cubs’ system after signing a minor league deal. At the Triple-A level, he threw 45 1/3 innings with 3.77 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate. He was selected to the club’s roster on the last day of the season and tossed two innings in the final game on the schedule.
He had a really strong run for the Twins over 2019 and 2020, posting a 2.31 ERA over 81 2/3 innings in those two campaigns, striking out 34.2% of opponents while issuing walks at just 6.1% rate. But his ERA jumped to 3.18 in 2021 and 4.91 in 2022. The Royals’ bullpen has plenty of uncertainty after trading away Aroldis Chapman and Scott Barlow last year, perhaps leaving space for someone like Duffey to take advantage.