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Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager’s Rebound Season

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Not much has gone right for the Mariners at the Major League level this season, as GM Jerry Dipoto’s ongoing plan to “re-imagine” the roster has cut a lot of payroll and brought a lot of young talent into the organization at the expense of big league wins.  Only five teams have fewer victories than the 56-78 Mariners, and every single team in the four major North American professional sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) has reached the postseason more recently than the M’s, who last tasted the playoffs in 2001.

With so much focus on the Mariners’ newer faces, one of the more positive development of the team’s season has been the re-emergence of a cornerstone.  Thanks to hand surgery during Spring Training, Kyle Seager didn’t make his season debut until May 25, and thus the durable third baseman will appear in fewer than 154 games for the first time since his 2011 rookie season.  Even in abbreviated fashion over 324 plate appearances, however, Seager looks to have reversed a very worrisome decline at the plate.

Kyle SeagerSeager hit .268/.340/.457 with 103 homers for the M’s between 2013-16, culminating in an outstanding 2016 campaign that saw him finish 12th in AL MVP voting on the basis of a .278/.359/.499 slash line and 30 home runs (all career bests) over 676 plate appearances.  That great year was followed up, however, by a less-impressive 2017 and then a disastrous 2018.

After breaking his left big toe in June, Seager made an ill-fated attempt to try and play through the injury, leading to the worst full-season numbers of his career.  Seager’s production went from okay in 2017 to well below-average (107 wRC+ to 84, 109 OPS + to 86) , as he managed only a .221/.273/.400 slash through 630 PA, while still swatting 22 home runs.

It would’ve been easy to just write off 2018 as a result of the toe injury, though between the earlier dropoff in 2017 and then his late start to 2019, the Mariners didn’t really know what to expect from Seager this year.  While still not at his 2016 peak, Seager has nonetheless rebounded to once again become a force at the plate.  He has 18 homers and a .250/.327/.503 slash line over 324 PA, fueled mostly by a recent surge (1.183 OPS over his last 132 PA) that has made Seager one of baseball’s top hitters over the last five weeks of action.

While he may not remain quite this red-hot, Seager’s production looks mostly sustainable.  His .354 xwOBA actually outpaces his .350 wOBA (which has been a consistent trend for him since Statcast began measuring wOBA/xwOBA back in 2015).  His exit velocity and hard-hit ball percentage are both well above league averages, and Seager’s 38.9% showing in the latter category represents a new career high.  Always something of a fly-ball hitter, Seager’s improved contact has made him the latest batter to benefit from MLB’s homer-happy reality, as his 18% homer rate is by far the highest of his career.  He has also shown more patience, with a 9.9% walk rate this season after a career-worst 6.0% in 2018.

Beyond just a healed toe, Seager also took steps to improve his diet and offseason training last winter, and the early results bode well for him to remain a valuable player heading into 2020, his age-32 season.  His bounce-back performance in 2019 could also revive some trade value, though the terms of Seager’s contract will be a notable obstacle.

Signed to a seven-year, $100MM contract extension by former M’s general manager Jack Zduriencik prior to the 2015 season, Seager is still owed $19MM in 2020 and $18MM in 2021, with a $15MM club option for 2022.  That club option becomes guaranteed, however, in the event of a trade, effectively making it a poison pill rival teams are unlikely to swallow for a player who will be 34 on Opening Day 2022.  The Mariners have been willing to cover money in other trades of veterans over the past year, though between the contracts already dealt and Felix Hernandez’s big salary coming off the books after the season, the M’s have already significantly reduced their future financial commitments.  The team has just under $87MM committed to payroll in 2020.

Even the fact that Seager can again be considered something of a trade chip, however, represents a big step forward for the third baseman given his issues over the previous two seasons.  Since Hernandez is expected to depart, Seager will become the longest-tenured Mariner, and perhaps a veteran bridge to the team’s next window of competitive baseball.  Dipoto has insisted that his rebuilding efforts won’t be long-lasting, so there’s still a chance that Seager’s career revival could take him into a long-awaited postseason appearance while still wearing a Mariners uniform.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mariners Activate Kyle Seager

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The Mariners have activated 3B Kyle Seager from the 60-Day IL, per a team release. The 31-year-old had been rehabbing from a torn tendon in his left (non-throwing) hand after a dive-gone-awry early in Spring Training.

Seager will hope to inject some much-needed life into a floundering Mariners club, which has gone a hard-to-believe 10-28 after a 13-2 start over the season’s first couple weeks. Fill-in third baseman Ryon Healy has hit the IL after a middling kick-off to the ’19 campaign, and the team has also lost second sacker Dee Gordon to a right wrist contusion.

From 2012-17, the sweet-swinging Seager established himself as one of the game’s premier third basemen, averaging 4.3 fWAR per season over the stretch, with an overall output topped only by Josh Donaldson and Adrian Beltre.  Seager’s offensive performance has slid precipitously over the last two seasons, however, bottoming out in ’18 with an unfortunate .221/.273/.400 (84 wRC+) line in 630 PAs for the M’s.

A balky big toe may have been much to blame, though, and the nine-year vet spent much of the offseason immersed in a nutrition and weight loss program designed purely to alleviate the pain’s root. A rebound to previously-established levels could make the 31-year-old an attractive midseason trade chip, though the club would almost certainly have to eat a decent portion of the some $45MM remaining on the former all-star’s contract.

AL West Notes: Bolt, Rangers, Seager

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The Athletics are promoting outfield prospect Skye Bolt for his big league debut this weekend, as first reported by AthleticsFarm.com (on Twitter). He’ll step into the roster spot of Ryan Dull, who was optioned to Triple-A following yesterday’s game. Oakland spent its recent series against the Red Sox operating with a two-man bench, so the addition of Bolt will give the club some much needed flexibility on the position-player side of the roster. A fourth-round pick in 2015, the switch-hitting Bolt is batting .325/.400/.675 with six homers and three steals through 90 plate appearances in Triple-A  Las Vegas so far in the season. Despite his 80-grade name and strong start to the year, Bolt is regarded as more of a fourth outfield type than a potential outfield cornerstone in Oakland. He ranks 17th among A’s prospects at Fangraphs and 19th at both MLB.com and Baseball America. The aptly named Bolt draws praise for his above above-average speed and arm strength, which allow him to capably handle all three outfield slots.

Here’s more from the AL West..

  • Rangers 2018 second-round pick Owen White will miss the remainder of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The right-hander joins 2018 fourth-rounder Mason Englert as the second Rangers prospect from last year’s draft to undergo the procedure in recent weeks. The pair of injuries comes in spite of the Rangers organization keeping both White and Englert from pitching last summer in an effort to help manage the workloads of young, recent draftees. Both White and Englert were slated to start the season in short-season Class-A and were already years from being options at the big league level, but the loss of a pair of high-upside teenagers for a full season before either even pitches for a minor league affiliate is undoubtedly maddening for a club that has already been snakebit by pitching injuries in recent years.
  • Kyle Seager tells Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that his surgically repaired finger is back up to full strength and he feels ready to play, but the Mariners third baseman will still miss just over three more weeks by virtue of the fact that he’s on the 60-day injured list. Seager’s recovery is well ahead of schedule, and the 31-year-old figures to head out on a rehab assignment at some point between now and his May 25 return date in order to get him some in-game reps after sitting out since tearing a tendon in his finger on March 8. As Divish notes, his eventual return will create a crunch at the corner infield spots and designated hitter. Seager will join Ryon Healy as a third base option, while Healy, Daniel Vogelbach, Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce are all options at first base and DH. A trade can ever be ruled out with ever-active GM Jerry Dipoto at the helm, though certainly Seager wouldn’t be the player to be moved; he’s owed $15.4MM through season’s end, plus another $19MM in 2020 and $18MM in 2021. His contract also contains a $15MM club option that is converted to a player option if he is traded. Divish suggests that Healy had previously been a candidate to be optioned to Triple-A, though he’s off to a .235/.301/.471 start (110 OPS+) with five homers and a league-leading 13 doubles in 2019.

West Notes: Kinsler, Godley, K. Seager

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Ian Kinsler’s run as the Padres’ regular second baseman (and perhaps his time on their roster) may be nearing an end, a source tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Padres signed the highly accomplished Kinsler to a two-year, $8MM guarantee in the offseason, no doubt expecting him to serve as a quality stopgap prior to the Luis Urias era. Instead Kinsler has slashed a ghastly .141/.221/.256 through 86 plate appearances. While a .148 batting average on balls in play suggests fortune hasn’t been on the 36-year-old’s side, his expected weighted on-base average (.216) matches his real wOBA (.216) and ranks as the game’s fifth-worst mark. Now, thanks to Kinsler’s inadequate production, the Padres may be on the verge of turning to Greg Garcia as a bridge to Urias. The Padres optioned Urias to Triple-A El Paso last Sunday after he hit just .083/.241/.125 in 29 major league PA, but the 21-year-old top prospect has torched minor league pitching with a .357/.413/.786 slash in 46 attempts.

  • The Diamondbacks will discuss whether to drop right-hander Zack Godley from their rotation, manager Torey Lovullo told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters Saturday. Lovullo’s comments came on the heels of Godley’s latest clunker, in which he yielded five earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2 2/3 innings in a blowout loss to the Cubs. Having surrendered four or more earned runs in four of six starts this year, Godley’s ERA sits at an untenable 7.58, thanks in part to declining strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.58 K/9, 5.46 BB/9, 41.3 GB%). The 29-year-old entered the campaign off a respectable two-season run in which he logged a 4.10 ERA with 9.45 K/9, 3.62 BB/9 and a 51.6 percent grounder rate across 333 1/3 frames, making his 2019 output all the more concerning. Demoting Godley to the minors likely isn’t on the table for the Diamondbacks, as a team could claim the out-of-options hurler on waivers. If the D-backs do remove Godley from their rotation, though, Piecoro names Matt Andriese, Taylor Clarke and Jon Duplantier as potential replacements.
  • The Mariners have begun the season an excellent 18-12 without third base mainstay Kyle Seager, who underwent surgery on his left hand in mid-March. But the 31-year-old’s recovery is going smoothly, as he took ground balls for the first time Saturday and said (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) that he’s “ahead of schedule” and not feeling any pain. Still, Seager will be out until at least May 25, the first day he’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list. The Seager-less M’s have turned to Ryon Healy and Dylan Moore at third to mixed results.

Mariners Select David McKay, Place Hunter Strickland On IL

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The Mariners have selected right-hander David McKay from Triple-A Tacoma, placed reliever Hunter Strickland on the 10-day injured list with a right lat strain and moved third baseman Kyle Seager to the 60-day IL, per a team announcement.

McKay, the Mariners’ 25th-ranked prospect at MLB.com, is set for his first major league action since the Royals chose him in the 14th round of the 2016 draft. He joined the Mariners in a March 2018 trade that didn’t net the Royals much of anything in return. Now 23 years old, McKay pitched to a sterling 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP with 12.61 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 in 50 2/3 innings at the Double-A level last season.

Strickland, 30, is just 2 1/3 innings into his tenure in Seattle, where he has already yielded three earned runs on three hits, with three strikeouts. The former Giant, who joined the Mariners for a guaranteed $1.3MM in the offseason, surrendered what proved to be the game-losing three-run homer in the ninth inning to the Red Sox’s Mitch Moreland on Friday. The M’s held a 6-4 lead at the time, only to fall 7-6 and drop to 3-1 on the season. It resulted in a blown save for Strickland, whom the M’s could replace with some combination of Matt Festa, Cory Gearrin and Zac Rosscup in the ninth inning. Seager, meanwhile, is out for the foreseeable future on account of a left hand injury.

Kyle Seager Undergoes Surgery For Injured Tendon

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March 14: Seager will miss 10 to 12 weeks following the procedure, general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters (link via Johns). He won’t swing a bat for the next eight weeks and isn’t likely to return to the field before June.

March 11: Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager is slated to undergo surgery to repair an injured tendon in his left hand, MLB.com’s Greg Johns was among those to report (Twitter links). He’s expected to be sidelined for all of April, at least, with a precise timeline as yet unknown.

Seager had been preparing for what he hoped to be a bounceback season at the plate. Now, the 31-year-old will need to overcome a physical obstacle before he has a chance to show that his forgettable 2018 season was just a down year.

Durability has never been an issue for Seager, who has never been placed on the disabled list during his eight-year MLB career. He will be among the first players to go on the newly-dubbed injured list, however, and will therefore fall shy of 154 games played for the first time since his first full season in the majors back in 2012.

Seager had also always been an above-average big league hitter until running into trouble last year. He ended the season with an ugly .221/.273/.400 slash and 22 home runs in 630 plate appearances — a far cry from the .263/.332/.447 line he carried entering the season.

There were some indications that poor fortune played a role in that decline. Seager carried a career-low .251 BABIP despite what Statcast categorized as a 39.6% hard contact rate. His .288 wOBA lagged his .306 xwOBA, though that still fell well shy of his prior levels.

Worryingly, Seager also saw changes in his plate discipline. He struck out at a career-high 21.9% rate while walking at a career-low 6.0% clip. On the bright side, Seager’s power was down from his prior four seasons, though his .178 isolated power mark wasn’t too far off of his .183 career rate.

There were also mixed signals defensively. Seager continued to receive quality grades from Ultimate Zone Rating for his glovework. The opposite was true of the Defensive Runs Saved system, which has swung wildly and not seen eye to eye with UZR on Seager over the years.

Ryon Healy will step in at the hot corner for the meantime, per skipper Scott Servais (also via Johns, on Twitter). Missing out on a month or more of Seager’s contributions represents less-than-promising news for the M’s, though the club has already made clear it doesn’t expect to push for a postseason spot this year. With $56MM committed to Seager over the next three seasons, the Seattle organization will be concerned mostly with his ability to regain his form with the bat once he is back at full health.

Injury Notes: Dodgers, Mariners, Altuve, Mets

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The Dodgers expect their top two starters, left-hander Clayton Kershaw and right-hander Walker Buehler, and shortstop Corey Seager to be ready for the beginning of the season, manager Dave Roberts said Sunday (Twitter links via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Kershaw – who has been working back from a shoulder issue for two weeks – is set to throw a bullpen session Monday, while Buehler will throw live batting practice again Tuesday or Wednesday. Though Buehler’s not injured, the Dodgers are taking a careful approach with the 24-year-old wunderkind this spring after he experienced a massive innings increase from 2017-18. The Dodgers have also been cautious with Seager, who’s coming off Tommy John surgery and a left hip procedure.

  • Manager Scott Servais issued updates on a few key Mariners on Sunday, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Greg Johns of MLB.com (all Twitter links). Third baseman Kyle Seager, brother of the aforementioned Corey Seager, underwent an MRI on Saturday on his injured left wrist. The results aren’t available yet, however. Outfielder Mallex Smith, who has been shelved the past few weeks because of a strained flexor mass in his right forearm, is making progress and could take batting practice Monday. Reliever Hunter Strickland has been unavailable since last Sunday with lower back tightness, but Servais doesn’t think it’s serious, nor should it keep the former Giant out for much longer.
  • The Astros are shutting down second baseman Jose Altuve “for a few days,” manager A.J. Hinch told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters Sunday. Altuve’s battling left side soreness, though the Astros don’t believe it’s anything “alarming,” and they’re hoping the superstar can return to Grapefruit League action late next week, according to Hinch.
  • Mets reliever Drew Smith is heading back to New York for an evaluation of his sore right elbow, Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to report. Smith’s attempt to win a season-opening spot in the Mets’ bullpen is on hold as a result. In his first major league action last season, the 25-year-old pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.66 FIP with 5.79 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9 over 28 innings.

Injury Notes: Altuve, Duffy, Seager

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We’ll use this post to keep track of minor injuries throughout the day…

  • Jose Altuve was scratched from a spring game for the second time in three days due to left side soreness, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Altuve underwent knee surgery in October to repair a patella avulsion fracture in his right knee. Still, the soreness does not appear to be a major cause for concern, as neither Altuve nor manager A.J. Hinch expressed anything but confidence about Altuve’s ability to get back on the field in short order. Altuve has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, hitting the injured list for the first time in eight seasons last year, though he still appeared in 137 games while hitting .316/.386/.451 and accumulating 5.2 rWAR.
  • Matt Duffy has experienced discomfort in his left hamstring, keeping him from spring action, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. Duffy has played in only one game this spring as a result of the injury, and at this point it’s likely he won’t be ready by Opening Day. The 28-year-old burst onto the scene in his 2015 rookie campaign with San Francisco, slashing .295/.334/.428 on the way to an out-of-nowhere 4.4 fWAR. Achilles injuries muddied his 2016 campaign and cost him all but eight minor-league PAs in 2017, but the former 18th rounder steadied himself at his former third-base home last season, posting a solid 106 wRC+/2.4 fWAR for the upstart Rays.
  • Mariners 3B Kyle Seager will see be sidelined for “several days” after an ill-advised dive in Friday’s game resulted in an injury to his left wrist, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns details. A slimmed-down Seager had looked to rebound after a sloppy 2018 campaign, which saw the 31-year-old post career-worsts in OBP, SLG, wRC+, and fWAR. His hard-hit rate, though, remained at a robust 37%, and the lefty rededicated himself to nutrition and fitness during a busy offseason at his North Carolina home. Ryon Healy, who made just two appearances at the hot corner last season, figures to get time there in the interim.

Trade Chatter: Seager, Mariners, Gray, Indians, Rays

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As the Mariners continue to explore further ways to get younger and shed payroll, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team won’t be attaching Kyle Seager’s contract to Mitch Haniger in an effort to escape the remaining three years and $56MM on Seager’s seven-year deal (subscription required). First and foremost, the Seattle organization considers Haniger to be among the five best corner outfielders in baseball, Rosenthal notes. Beyond that, however, Seager’s contract contains a clause converting a $15MM club option for the 2022 season into a player option, should he be traded. Because that clause makes the remainder of the contract so unappealing to trade partners, he may very well need to rebuild some value in 2019 before he can be flipped. Rosenthal’s column also sheds some light on the Mariners’ other discussions on Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, in addition to highlighting the organization’s affinity for newly acquired prospect Jarred Kelenic.

Some more trade rumblings from around the league…

  • The Padres and Brewers are among the teams still in contact with the Yankees about a potential Sonny Gray swap, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both organizations have been tied to various starting pitching options, though the Padres are a particularly curious fit, given their focus on the 2020 season and Gray’s status as a one-year rental. However, as Morosi’s colleague, AJ Cassavell, explains in greater detail, San Diego’s interest has some logic to it. Gray’s stock is down, and a resurgence in San Diego (like many arms before him) could allow him to either be traded for a greater price next July or position him to receive a qualifying offer next offseason. Even if the acquisition doesn’t pan out, he wouldn’t put a huge dent into a deep San Diego farm system. As for the Brewers, they’ve already got a deep collection of right-handed starters, but perhaps they view Gray as a premium rebound candidate and/or feel that acquiring him could allow them to deal from the back end of their current collection of rotation candidates.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the market for Indians starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer could come more into focus now that Patrick Corbin is off the board. Notably, Olney suggests that Cleveland “might” ask that a trade partner take Jason Kipnis and the remaining money on his contract ($17MM), though obviously doing so would rather notably diminish the return that the Indians would receive for any of their top three starters. Still, that scenario would certainly hold appeal to deeper-pocketed suitors of the Indians’ starters — particularly those with a good deal of long-term payroll flexibility (e.g. the Phillies).
  • The Rays were among the teams with interest in Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link), although Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen strongly downplayed the possibility of trading Syndergaard earlier today. That said, Tampa’s interest in “Thor” is nonetheless notable, as it points to an interest in adding a controllable arm if one can be found at a reasonable financial price point. Then again, as a high-end starter with a projected salary under $6MM and three years of team control remaining, Syndergaard is (or was) something of a rarity on the trade market. Speculatively speaking, perhaps either Michael Fulmer or Jon Gray could be viewed in that same light, but both right-handers are coming off poor seasons, making it tough for their respective organizations to sell low.

AL Notes: M’s, Seager, Yanks, Sanchez, Tribe, Bauer

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The latest from the American League…

  • If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.
  • Like Seager, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez endured a surprisingly poor season in 2018. However, Sanchez is “not for sale,” general manager Brian Cashman tells Jack Curry of the YES Network (video link). The Yankees expect to be “proven correct” that Sanchez is a franchise catcher, per Cashman, who has consistently defended the 26-year-old in recent months. So, although Sanchez has come up in trade rumors as recently as this week, it appears he’ll stay put.
  • Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer is another offseason trade candidate, but he explained to MLB Network this week that it wouldn’t make sense for the Tribe to deal him now. “There’s a lot of reasons I think that [the Indians should not trade me],” Bauer said (via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com). “Ultimately, I think the surplus value on me this year is just way too high. Even with an arbitration raise, you’re probably talking about $15 to $20 million of surplus value.” Bauer added that it would be more logical for the Indians to move him a year from now, when his price will rise and he’ll be just one year from reaching free agency. The 27-year-old provided oodles of surplus value to the Indians in 2018, when he logged an amazing 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 innings for a little more than $6.5MM. He’s projected to earn another reasonable salary – $11.6MM – in 2019.

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