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Kyle Tucker

The Case For The Reds To Sign A Big Bat

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The Reds’ immediate exit from the playoffs makes it easy to forget the successes of the regular season. Cincinnati snapped a four-year postseason drought in manager Terry Francona’s first season. They won 83 games for just the second time since 2013. This team has something to build on heading into 2026, and now is the time to make a splash in free agency.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in Cincinnati’s Offseason Outlook for Front Office subscribers, improving the offense will be key this offseason. The club did not have the depth or high-end talent to compete with the best of the National League. Cincinnati could make smaller moves around the margins, as they’ve done in recent seasons, but why not take a bigger swing?

Financially, the team is in a decent spot. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the Reds with an estimated payroll of around $94MM heading into next season. They were close to $120MM this past season, and have been above $130MM in each season from 2020 to 2022. The biggest current commitment for 2026 is the $13MM owed to Jeimer Candelario. While it stings to be shelling out that amount to a player no longer in the organization, Candelario is the only one on the books for eight figures right now, assuming the team declines Austin Hays’ $12MM mutual option. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has Brady Singer projected to earn $11.9MM in arbitration, but the righty will likely be the only significant commitment coming from the arbitration process.

Cincinnati’s largest free agent contract by total value is a tie between Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas at $64MM over four years in 2020, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The club will have to go well beyond a $16MM average annual value to entice Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, but maybe combining the outlay on Castellanos and Moustakas would be enough to make an interesting offer.

Part of the reason for the offense being the offseason focus is that the pitching staff was excellent in 2025. Hunter Greene looked like an ace when healthy. Andrew Abbott delivered a breakout season. Singer and Nick Lodolo provided stable innings. Chase Burns posted electrifying strikeout numbers upon getting called up. Cincinnati ranked ninth in starting pitcher ERA. Only six other starting staffs had more strikeouts.

The success on the mound is made more impressive by Cincinnati’s home venue. Great American Ball Park ranks third in StatCast’s Park Factor metric. It’s the second-highest rated park for home runs. The strides made by the starting pitching unit make the shortcomings of the offense harder to swallow, especially given the favorable hitting environment.

Though they snuck into the playoffs after chasing down the Mets, the Reds finished third in the NL Central. They haven’t been better than third in the division since winning it in 2012. This might be the perfect time to buck that trend.

Pittsburgh and St. Louis are in rebuilding mode, making this a three-horse race heading into next season. Milwaukee and Chicago both won 90+ games in 2025, but could be facing significant losses. Kyle Tucker is a free agent. He would fit the bill as a significant splash for Cincinnati, though he’s likely out of their price range. The more likely impact is removing a key contributor from the middle of the Cubs’ lineup. Speaking of important losses, Milwaukee could be considering a Freddy Peralta trade. It would be a massive loss for a rotation without much proven depth and some health questions.

The Brewers and Cubs are still likely the favorites to win the NL Central next season, but the Reds can close the gap. Their finances make a big move possible, and their pitching staff deserves better support. Schwarber said it would be “cool” to suit up for his hometown team. The Reds might as well try to make that happen.

Dodgers Expected To Pursue Kyle Tucker This Offseason

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The Dodgers are back in the World Series to defend the title they won last year after sweeping the Brewers out of the NLCS, but while they wait to see which of the Mariners and Blue Jays will emerge from the ALCS to challenge them for the commissioner’s trophy it appears their front office has already directed one eye towards the coming offseason. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports this evening that Los Angeles is expected to target star outfielder Kyle Tucker when free agency opens up following the World Series.

The news is hardly a surprise, as the Dodgers are routinely involved with the game’s marquee free agents. They famously won the sweepstakes for both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto during the 2023-24 offseason, and while last winter saw them miss on young superstar Juan Soto after landing as one of five finalists for his services, they still went on to spend plenty in free agency as they brought in Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, and Tanner Scott among a number of other signings and re-signings.

Impressive as the Dodgers have been this year, one of the team’s few major flaws is their production in the outfield. Andy Pages (113 wRC+) has emerged as a legitimate regular in center field, but Teoscar Hernandez (102 wRC+) took a significant step back last year relative to his first season in Los Angeles and the Michael Conforto experiment ended disastrously as he posted a wRC+ of just 83 with negative WAR in 138 games before being left off the club’s postseason rosters. With Conforto headed back into free agency this winter, there’s an opening on the grass in Los Angeles that Tucker could fit into quite nicely.

Tucker, 28, is a four-time All-Star who is the consensus pick for this winter’s top free agent. He broke out with the Astros back in 2021, and since then he’s hit a sensational .277/.365/.514 (143 wRC+) across five seasons of work. His resume was impressive enough that the Cubs were convinced to surrender top prospect Cam Smith and All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes (alongside young starter Hayden Wesneski) in a three-player package to acquire Tucker ahead of his final year under team control. Tucker was everything the Cubs were hoping for in the first half this year, as he slashed .291/.295/.537 with 17 homers in 83 games through the end of June.

At that point, Tucker seemed likely to find himself at the center of discussions about whether or not he’d join Ohtani, Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in landing a guarantee of more than $500MM this winter. Things took a turn for the worse in the second half, however. Tucker made two trips to the injured list and hit just .225/.348/.342 in 53 games from July 1 onward, leaving him with fewer homers (22) in 136 games this year than he managed in 78 games during his injury-shortened 2024 season (23).

Heyman writes that Tucker’s tough second half has knocked down his expected price tag somewhat, but that a $300MM contract could still be realistic with even $400MM as a possible goal for the outfielder’s camp. That’s the type of price tag that’s sure to give pause to plenty of suitors, should it come to fruition. That’s unlikely to be the case for the Dodgers, who have a payroll of $395MM this year according to RosterResource and will see that figure drop to $329MM next year without making offseason additions. Even if Los Angeles isn’t willing to surpass this year’s payroll (and there’s been no indication that’s the case to this point), they’d still have plenty of room in the budget to add Tucker if they so chose.

Looking at other potential suitors, the Cubs have indicated at least some interest in bringing Tucker back into the fold next year. With that said, it should be noted that they’ve never spent more than the $184MM they gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason on a contract in club history. That would be a significant jump out of the club’s apparent comfort zone under chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, though it could be argued that trading for Tucker in the first place was similarly out of character.

Heyman also suggests that the Red Sox, Phillies, and Giants could be in the mix for Tucker’s services, though none of those potential landing spots are quite as obvious fits as Los Angeles is. Boston has a very crowded outfield mix as it is, with Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu all left-handed outfielders under long-term team control who belong in everyday roles and profile best in a corner. The Phillies have made it clear their top priority this winter is retaining star DH Kyle Schwarber, and it remains to be seen if the Giants are interested in adding another corner bat on a massive contract after trading for Rafael Devers back in June.

Cubs Notes: Tucker, Imanaga, Horton, Coaching Staff

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The Cubs had a solid season in 2025 but it came to an end on Saturday when they dropped Gave Five of the Division Series to the Brewers. That turns the focus to the offseason and some upcoming decisions. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer held an end-of-season press conference yesterday but largely avoided tipping his hand about anything. Reporters such as Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic and Jordan Bastian of MLB.com provided dispatches from the presser.

Kyle Tucker’s impending free agency will be a big storyline this winter and Hoyer provided some boilerplate comments about trying to retain the player. “Everyone can use a guy like Kyle Tucker. Everyone gets better by having a player like that,” Hoyer said. “We’ll certainly be having those conversations.”

The Cubs obviously think highly of Tucker. Back in December, they gave up Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith in order to acquire Tucker’s final year before free agency. They saw Tucker near his best for a while. He slashed .291/.395/.537 through the end of June for a 157 wRC+ while stealing 20 bases.

But his results tapered off as the season went along. A finger fracture suffered in early June didn’t immediately slow him down but seemed to catch up with him eventually. A calf strain also popped up later in the season. From July through the end of the season, Tucker slashed just .225/.348/.342 for a 103 wRC+. He had a .259/.375/.370 line and 118 wRC+ in the postseason.

Despite the tepid finish, Tucker has shown remarkably well-rounded production when healthy and should still be in high demand this winter. From 2021 to the present, he has a combined .277/.365/.514 line and 143 wRC+. He stole 105 bases in there with strong defensive grades, though the glovework seems to be trending down. FanGraphs credited him with 23.4 wins above replacement, making him one of the ten most valuable position players in that stretch.

Though he is limping towards free agency, it’s still possible Tucker’s market will be strong enough that he could secure something like a ten-year, $400MM deal. The Cubs could do that, in a sense. They are a big-market club and their future payroll is quite clean, with Dansby Swanson the only guy really locked in beyond 2026. However, they would need to shatter precedent, as the largest contract in franchise history is Jason Heyward’s $184MM deal from a decade ago.

One other guy who is technically on the books beyond 2026 is left-hander Shota Imanaga, thanks to his convoluted contract. In the next few weeks, it will be determined if he stays on the books or not. The Cubs will soon have to decide whether or not to trigger a three-year, $57.5MM club option for the 2026-28 season. If they turn that down, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026. If he triggers that, after 2026, the Cubs have to decide on a two-year, $42.5MM club option. If that is turned down, Imanaga would get another $15.25MM player option.

Hoyer technically responded to a question about Imanaga yesterday but without really answering anything. “When we signed Shota, if you’d shown us his production over the last two years, we would have taken that in a heartbeat,” Hoyer said. “So not only has he produced for us, but he’s just a great teammate and terrific asset to the organization. Obviously we have decisions to make and discussions to (have). Over the next two or three weeks we’ll do that, but I’ve got nothing but positive things to say about Shota.”

After Imanaga’s MLB debut in 2024, the club option seemed like a no-brainer. He posted a 2.91 earned run average over 29 starts. Despite his fastball averaging just 91.7 miles per hour, he was able to strike out 25.1% of batters faced and only gave out walks 4% of the time. But his results backed up here in 2025. As he averaged just 90.8 mph on his fastball, he posted a 3.73 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate. That includes a rough second half with a 4.70 ERA.

Since Imanaga is now 32 years old and his trends aren’t great, it’s possible the Cubs may look to quit while they’re ahead. Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Cade Horton will have spots in next year’s rotation. Horton finished the season on the injured list due to a rib fracture but is healthy now. He actually would have been on the NLCS roster if the Cubs had advanced, per Bastian. Justin Steele will be back from his UCL surgery at some point. Colin Rea can be retained via a $6MM club option, which has a $750K buyout. Guys like Ben Brown, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks will be in the mix.

Subtracting Imanaga from the group would further thin out a group that already looks lacking. On the other hand, adding Imanaga back in there would leave the rotation feeling decent but lacking in upside. There’s an argument that they should turn down their option and use the money saved to pursue more of a front-of-rotation arm. This winter’s free agent market will feature guys like Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suárez and others. The trade market could feature MacKenzie Gore, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and others.

As for the coaching staff, Hoyer noted they would all be invited back. That makes it possible the Cubs face minimal turnover this winter but it’s also possible some staffers get poached by other clubs. There are eight managerial vacancies and bench coach Ryan Flaherty has already been connected to a few of them. Once those new managers are hired, they will likely have some ability to make coaching decisions. That should lead to a lot of coaching musical chairs this winter, so time will tell if that impacts anyone with the Cubs.

Photo courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images

Cubs Activate Kyle Tucker, Option Carlos Santana

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11:49am: The Cubs have officially activated Tucker from the injured list. He’s hitting cleanup and serving as the designated hitter today. In a corresponding move, veteran first baseman Carlos Santana has consented to be optioned. He’ll be on the team’s taxi squad for the playoffs next week, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Santana is a free agent at season’s end.

10:16am: After spending more than three weeks on the injured list due to a calf strain, Kyle Tucker is back for the final regular season series of the year. The Cubs outfielder himself tells ESPN’s Jesse Rogers that he’s in the lineup today — his first game since Sept. 2. The team hasn’t formally announced the move or a corresponding transaction yet.

The Cubs have already clinched a postseason berth, but these final three games will give Tucker a tune-up for their return to October baseball. The impending free agent has had a terrific season overall but will end up playing in, at most, 136 of the team’s 162 games due primarily to this calf strain. He’s hitting .270/.381/.472 (139 wRC+) with 22 home runs, 25 doubles, four triples, 25 steals and a matching 14.7% walk rate and 14.7% strikeout rate.

Tucker’s offensive numbers would likely be even more impressive had he not suffered a hairline fracture in his hand back in June. He gutted it out and played through the injury, which only came to light nearly three months later, after it had healed. Tucker hit well in June but saw his numbers drop precipitously in July. There’s no definitive way to know how much the small fracture impacted him, but he surely wasn’t playing at 100% throughout the entirety of the summer.

While Tucker was on the shelf, the Cubs went with a regular outfield of Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki, the latter of whom had most frequently served as the team’s designated hitter. That alignment opened the door for top catching prospect Moisés Ballesteros to step into the designated hitter spot on a regular basis, and he’s stepped up as one of the team’s most productive hitters this month. The 21-year-old slugger has taken 42 plate appearances since Tucker went down and turned in a stout .314/.429/.571 batting line. Ballesteros has been so productive, in fact, that he may have hit his way onto Chicago’s postseason roster.

“Moisés is playing at a really high level,” manager Craig Counsell tells Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. “Where he’s hitting in the lineup should tell you a lot. He’s contributing offensively significantly. That’s real. That matters. Absolutely, we’re taking note of it.”

Ballesteros has batted fourth or fifth in each of his past ten games and hasn’t hit lower than sixth since being recalled from the minors prior to the team’s game on Sept. 12. The Cubs have shielded him from left-handed pitching, giving him only three plate appearances versus fellow southpaws. Presumably, if he were indeed to secure a spot on the playoff roster, he’d be utilized in a platoon capacity. With a full complement of Happ, Crow-Armstrong, Tucker and Suzuki ticketed for outfield/designated hitter work and Carson Kelly standing as the everyday catcher, Ballesteros probably wouldn’t be in the starting lineup much, but he could provide a potent left-handed bat off the bench.

Cubs Hoping To Reinstate Kyle Tucker On Friday; Daniel Palencia Reinstated Today

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The Cubs are hoping to have outfielder Kyle Tucker back in the lineup on Friday. “I think we’re trending towards that,” manager Craig Counsell said today, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Tucker is on the 10-day injured list and would need to be officially reinstated, which would require a corresponding active roster move.

Tucker is one of the better players in the league, when healthy. That qualifier has become more significant in recent years. He hardly missed any time from 2020 through 2023. Last year, a fractured shin limited him to just 78 games.

Here in 2025, he has played far more, though it appears some minor injuries have been impacting his production. He was diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his right hand in June, though that issue didn’t become publicly known until August. He had a huge .284/.395/.524 slash line through June 1st when he jammed his finger sliding into a base. His production continued to be strong in the initial wake of that injury, as he hit .311/.404/.578 in June. But it seemed to catch up to him in July, as he hit .218/.380/.295 that month and .244/.346/.389 in August.

After appearing in just two September games, a left calf strain put him out of action. He wasn’t immediately placed on the IL, as the club seemingly held out hope of him quickly bouncing back. That didn’t come to pass, so he hit the shelf September 9th, retroactive to September 6th. It was hoped that he could make a fairly quick return but that also hasn’t come to pass, as the issue has now lingered for about three weeks in total.

The Cubs have already clinched a playoff spot but won’t be able to secure a first-round bye since the Brewers have the Central sewn up. That means the Cubs will be playing in the Wild Card round, which begins on Tuesday. Ideally, Tucker can indeed be activated on Friday, which would give him three contests to get reacquainted with major league game speed before the playoffs begin.

Given his talents, Tucker’s return will be very important for the Cubs as they look to engineer a deep playoff run. It’s also incredibly important for him personally, since he’s an impending free agent. From 2020 through 2023, he slashed .277/.350/.516 for a 136 wRC+ with 77 stolen bases and strong outfield grades. Last year, even though he missed time with the shin fracture, he had an even better .289/.408/.585 line and 179 wRC+.

He seemed to be trending towards a massive contract this winter, with some even suggesting he could top $500MM on a deal of a decade or longer. This year’s nagging injuries have cut into his momentum. His season-long line of .270/.381/.472 still translates to a strong 139 wRC+ but, as mentioned earlier, he was better before getting banged up. Quickly getting back on track and cranking out a few timely hits under the bright lights of the postseason would surely help ease any sudden doubts that teams may have about making a long commitment to him.

Elsewhere on the Cubs’ roster, the pitching staff is getting a boost. Right-hander Daniel Palencia has been reinstated from the IL today, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, with left-hander Jordan Wicks optioned out in a corresponding move.

Palencia hit the IL a couple of weeks back due to a shoulder strain. Prior to that, he was having a breakout season and took over the closer’s role in the process. He currently has 51 innings pitched on the year with a flat earned run average of 3.00. He has struck out 28.1% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 7.6% clip, recording 22 saves in the process.

Getting him back just before the playoffs is a nice bump for the playoffs but the pitching staff could also lose a notable member. Righty Cade Horton, who departed his most recent start due to back tightness, is set to undergo an MRI. Counsell relayed that update on 670 The Score, per Bruce Levine.

Horton has had an excellent debut this year with a 2.67 ERA, 20.4% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate. If healthy, he would be in the mix for playoff starts alongside Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. A notable injury would obviously take that off the table and lead to Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad and Colin Rea jumping up the depth chart.

Photo courtesy of Jonathan Hui, Imagn Images

Cubs Place Owen Caissie On 7-Day Concussion IL

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The Cubs announced this afternoon that they’ve placed outfielder Owen Caissie on the 7-day concussion-related injured list. Outfielder Kevin Alcantara was recalled from Triple-A to replace Caissie on the active roster.

The move comes just one day after the Cubs recalled Caissie to the big league roster and optioned Alcantara to the minors. Caissie started yesterday’s game against the Rays but exited the game after hitting his head against the outfield wall at Wrigley Field while making a catch. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun Times) that Caissie was being put through the concussion protocol after yesterday’s game. Evidently, Caissie’s symptoms were severe enough that they opted to place him on the shelf and get him time to recover.

That decision well might bring Caissie’s first season in the big leagues to an end, depending on the severity of his concussion symptoms. If that’s the case, he’ll end 2025 with just 12 games and 27 plate appearances in the big leagues, during which he collected five hits (including a double and a homer) and one walk against eleven strikeouts. That cup of coffee pairs with a strong performance with Iowa this year, where he slashed .286/.386/.551 with 22 homers and 28 doubles in just 99 games. A consensus top-50 prospect in the game, Caissie could get a lot more runway with the Cubs come next season if Kyle Tucker departs the club via free agency in the offseason.

For now, however, his roster spot will go to Alcantara. A fellow top Cubs prospect generally viewed as sitting near the back of the league-wide top 100, Alcantara has appeared in just three games this year. He’s gone 1-for-7 with three strikeouts this year and figures to serve mostly as a bench piece for the Cubs in the coming weeks, though injuries could offer him more opportunities. Both Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki are currently unavailable; Suzuki due to an illness that has left him day-to-day in recent days, and Tucker due to a calf issue that’s sent him to the injured list. Fellow top prospect Moises Ballesteros (7-for-28 with three extra base hits) is getting a look at DH at the moment, and that leaves right field open for some combination of Alcantara and Willi Castro until Suzuki is ready to return to games. Once Suzuki is back, Alcantara, Ballesteros, and Castro will all be competing for playing time until Tucker’s eventual return to the lineup.

That might not be for a while, as Counsell told reporters (including Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic) on Friday that Tucker returning as soon as he’s eligible to be activated on Tuesday is “unlikely right now.” Perhaps that stance could change in the coming days, but Tucker has not yet resumed running since he was placed on the injured list. While the Cubs aren’t in danger of losing their playoff spot at this point, getting the star’s 140 wRC+ bat back into the lineup with enough time for him to get settled in before the playoffs begin seems sure to be a top priority for the Cubs over the season’s final two weeks.

Cubs Place Kyle Tucker On Injured List

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The Cubs announced Tuesday that right fielder Kyle Tucker has been placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to Sept. 6) due to a strained left calf. Catcher Moises Ballesteros was recalled from Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move.

Tucker has been dealing with calf discomfort for a week. He was lifted midway through last Tuesday’s game and hasn’t played since then. The Cubs kept him on the roster for what they initially believed would be a day-to-day issue. Tucker hasn’t improved as quickly as they hoped, and he’ll now be ruled out for at least another week. Teams can only backdate an injured list placement for a maximum of three days even if the player’s last game action came before that.

This is the first injured list stint of the season for Tucker. He suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand on a stolen base attempt in early June. Tucker played through that injury. He initially remained productive but went into one of the worst six-week stretches of his career between July and the first half of August. Manager Craig Counsell gave him a brief reset with a trio of games on the bench. Tucker caught fire upon returning to the lineup but the calf shut him down a little less than two weeks later.

That the Cubs waited a week before placing Tucker on the injured list seems to suggest this isn’t a serious issue. He could return as soon as September 16 and would have a week and a half of reps before the start of the postseason. The Cubs aren’t playing for a whole lot this month. The Brewers have all but officially wrapped the NL Central. Chicago is eight games clear of the NL’s top non-playoff team, the Giants. While they’d presumably prefer to secure the top Wild Card spot rather than dropping to the #5 seed, that’s a relatively minor consideration. The far bigger concern is having Tucker at full strength in October.

Willi Castro and Seiya Suzuki will split the right field work in Tucker’s absence. Suzuki has gotten most of his at-bats at designated hitter. Ballesteros or Carlos Santana could pick up an extra start or two at DH on days when Suzuki draws into the outfield. Assuming Tucker makes it back before the end of the regular season, the injury shouldn’t have much or any impact on his impending free agency.

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia On Injured List

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September 8: Palencia has been placed on the 15-day injured list, according to multiple media personnel (including Marquee’s Taylor McGregor). Ethan Roberts has been recalled from Triple-A Iowa to take the open bullpen spot. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that Keller is likely to step into the ninth inning while Palencia is on the shelf.

September 7: The Cubs may be looking at going into the postseason without their closer. Daniel Palencia entered the ninth inning of Chicago’s game against the Nationals earlier today, but surrendered five runs and was pulled without recording an out. The team termed Palencia’s ailment “shoulder tightness” at the time of his removal, but manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) following the game that, more specifically, Palencia was suffering from a posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder.

While specifics beyond that diagnosis were few and far between in Counsell’s description of the situation, it seems all but certain that Palencia will require a trip to the injured list and be out for quite a while. Strains can naturally vary in severity substantially, but one relatively recent example of a pitcher dealing with a posterior capsule strain is Mets right-hander Kodai Senga, who was shut down due to a moderate strain in February of 2024. That kicked off what was more or less a lost season for Senga due to multiple injuries, but the initial diagnosis for that strain was expected to shut him down from throwing for three weeks.

A similar timeline would knock Palencia out for, at minimum, the remainder of the regular season and would likely result in him returning this year only if the Cubs make a relatively deep run into the postseason. Of course, it’s possible that Palencia’s capsule strain proves to be a relatively mild one that requires less time off, and it’s not impossible to imagine that he could be back on the big league mound for in time for the tail end of the regular season; a 15-day stint on the injured list, at this point, would allow Palencia to return to action during the club’s final two series of the regular season against the Mets and Cardinals.

However long Palencia ultimately ends up being sidelined, the news is a brutal blow to Chicago. Acquired from the A’s in exchange for Andrew Chafin at the 2021 trade deadline, Palencia made his big league debut in 2023 but has rounded into form as a dominant closer this year. Entering play today, the 25-year-old had posted a 2.12 ERA with a 2.59 FIP and 28.8% strikeout rate in 51 innings of work for the Cubs this year. He’s walked just 7.8% of his opponents faced and picked up 22 saves in 24 opportunities this year to go with six holds. That dominant production convinced the Cubs to back off the from the high leverage relief market. They targeted Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers to bolster their bullpen rather than landing a more surefire closer like David Bednar or Jhoan Duran.

With Palencia seemingly out of commission for the time being, manager Craig Counsell will now have to reconfigure his bullpen for the stretch run. Rogers has struggled since joining the Cubs, but Kittredge figures to be part of the late-inning mix for the Cubs alongside Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and perhaps Drew Pomeranz. Keller and Thielbar in particular appear likely to be in the conversation for save opportunities given their dominant seasons with the Cubs this year. Keller has a 2.20 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 59 appearances, while Thielbar sports a 2.15 ERA and 2.68 FIP in 58 outings.

Palencia’s injury is the latest frustrating development for a Cubs team that already had both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker miss todays game due to injuries. Fortunately, Counsell provided a positive update to reporters (including Levine) regarding the status of both hitters. Counsell indicated that Crow-Armstrong, who exited yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off of his shin, could be back in the lineup as soon as tomorrow for the start of the club’s series in Atlanta. As for Tucker, the All-Star hasn’t played since exiting Tuesday’s game against the Braves and Levine notes that he’s unlikely to be back in the lineup tomorrow. Even so, Counsell suggested that his running improved today and that he’s trending in the right direction towards a return to action in the near future.

Cubs Notes: Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, Caissie

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The Cubs have been without Kyle Tucker since he exited Tuesday’s game against the Braves due to a calf issue, and it’s unclear when he’ll be returning to the lineup. Yesterday, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (as relayed by Marquee Sports Network on social media) that Tucker “didn’t really make progress” during Thursday’s day off, and would be out of the lineup for another day before adding that today would be a “big day” in terms of deciding how to proceed.

That language seemed to suggest that an injured list stint was in the cards for Tucker if he wasn’t healthy enough to return to the lineup today, and Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that outfield prospect Owen Caissie was scratched from Triple-A Iowa’s lineup and brought to Chicago in case a roster move was necessary. Ultimately, however, Tucker remains day-to-day and out of the lineup without a roster move. Counsell told reporters (as noted by Marquee) today that the club thinks that they “have time to let this heal” without an IL stint, seemingly indicating that he’ll be back in the lineup within the next few days.

Injured list stints can be backdated a maximum of three days, meaning that if Tucker had gone on the shelf today he’d be eligible to return for next weekend’s series against the Rays. In that time, Caissie could have joined with fellow top prospect Kevin Alcantara to form a platoon in right field, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Ian Happ in right while utility man Willi Castro and DH Seiya Suzuki serve as backup options in the outfield. Instead, the Cubs have opted to keep Tucker on the roster, with Suzuki and Castro splitting time in right field while Carlos Santana fills in at DH on days where Suzuki is in the outfield.

A roster move to bolster the outfield mix may yet be necessary, however. Crow-Armstrong exited today’s loss against the Nationals due to a knee contusion after fouling a ball off of his knee. As he told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) after the game, the incident has caused “a whole different kind of pain” than he’s used to. Crow-Armstrong went on to indicate that a decision on his status going forward won’t be made clear until tomorrow, but it seems feasible he might be ticketed for either an injured list stint or at least a few days off due to the injury. Having both Tucker and Crow-Armstrong unavailable on the bench would stretch the Cubs rather thin, given that both Justin Turner and Carlos Santana are limited to first base and DH duties only. Those two could handle DH while Suzuki, Castro, and Alcantara mix and match between right and center field, but that’s a less than ideal solution and simply placing one of their two ailing outfielders on the shelf to make room for Caissie may wind up being preferable.

The Cubs have the good fortune of having relatively little to play for over the final few weeks of the regular season. Fangraphs gives the club a 99.8% chance to secure a playoff spot this season, while their odds of surpassing the surging Brewers in the NL Central sit at a paltry 3.1%. With a Wild Card berth more or less guaranteed, Chicago could surely afford to place either Tucker or Crow-Armstrong (or, perhaps, both) on the injured list and fill out their roster with prospects at Triple-A already on the 40-man roster like Caissie and Moises Ballesteros if they think resting their stars could put them in a better position to win in October. Of course, with Crow-Armstrong slumping badly in recent weeks (.178/.225/.243 since August 1) and Tucker having recently broken out of his own slump, it’s also possible that they would benefit from getting as many reps as possible in order to get back on track before the playoffs.

Kyle Tucker Was Diagnosed With Hairline Hand Fracture In June

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Cubs star Kyle Tucker suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand back in June, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Tucker jammed his right hand diving into second base on a stolen base attempt in a game against the Reds on June 1. Manager Craig Counsell subsequently confirmed the June fracture but says Tucker is now healthy (via Rogers).

Initial x-rays came back negative. However, Rogers writes that follow-up testing revealed a small fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky. The Cubs did not announce the diagnosis at the time, and Tucker has not spent any time on the injured list. The four-time All-Star preferred to play through the injury.

In retrospect, it’s fair to question whether that was prudent. Tucker had been one of the best hitters in MLB for the season’s first two months. He owned a .284/.395/.524 slash with 12 homers across 269 plate appearances through June 1. Since then, he’s batting .236/.352/.368 in almost the exact same amount of playing time. Tucker has connected on six longballs over the past two and a half months.

While the injury certainly seems to be having an impact, it’s worth noting that Tucker actually continued to play well in the immediate aftermath. He hit .311 with five homers in June. It wasn’t until July that things went completely off the rails. He’s batting .189/.325/.235 with one homer in his past 38 games.

Tucker’s plate discipline remains strong — he has actually walked more often than he has struck out during that stretch — but his power has completely evaporated. His rate of hard contact (batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH) was between 44-50% in each of the first two months. It remained solid at 42.9% in June but has plummeted below 30% in each of the past two months.

That kind of play from a hitter of Tucker’s caliber has naturally led to speculation about his health. Pat Murphy, manager of the Milwaukee team that is playing the Cubs this week, opined that the outfielder was playing through an injury. “I think Tucker’s hurt. I don’t have any information, but Tucker’s not the same,” Murphy said on 670 The Score.

Tucker himself has maintained that he’s physically ok. However, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer conceded to Rogers “that when you look at his numbers, it’s had an impact on him, for sure. That’s the nature sometimes of these small injuries. They can do that.” Counsell has kept Tucker out of the lineup for the past three games — two days, including a doubleheader on Tuesday. Chicago won all three games over the MLB-best Brewers with Owen Caissie playing right field. Counsell hasn’t committed to Tucker’s status for tomorrow’s series finale.

The Cubs remain six games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central. They’re comfortably in Wild Card position, which gives them the flexibility to mix in more off days for Tucker if necessary. They’ll need to find a way to get him back to being productive if they hope to make a deep playoff run. The injury and slump obviously come at an inopportune time for Tucker personally, as he’s a couple months from free agency. He’s the clear #1 player in the class and generally expected to command $400MM+ as he enters his age-29 season.

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