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Kyle Tucker

Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts Discusses Offseason, Payroll, Front Office

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The Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker generated the biggest headlines in Wrigleyville this winter, with the team also adding such notables as Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Eli Morgan, Carson Kelly, and Caleb Thielbar to the roster.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer stated this week that the Cubs were still looking to add to the bench and bullpen, and recent reports suggest that the latter pursuit could even take the form of a big-ticket signing of Tanner Scott.

One of the over-arching questions about Chicago’s winter plans is exactly how much Hoyer had available to spend, and chairman Tom Ricketts addressed this point in an interview with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney.  Ricketts said that the team expects to spend around the $241MM luxury tax threshold, which therefore gives the Cubs quite a bit of extra capacity, as RosterResource estimates its current tax number at roughly $198.3MM.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cubs will be splashing around a lot of that cash in the coming weeks, however, as Ricketts said some money could be earmarked for upgrades at the trade deadline.  “We always have the ability to add payroll if we need to at the deadline.  And if there’s a piece we need to keep winning, there’s always that option,” Ricketts said.

The same wait-and-see mentality also impacts the remainder of the winter, as Ricketts noted that teams “don’t control the timing of when these guys sign.  And every offseason is different.  Nothing will happen for three weeks, and then one guy will sign.  And then three other guys want to sign in the next two days.  You just have to be flexible through the process, and keep an eye open at the end with some dry powder, in case there is someone that might be value-added that comes at a good price.”

A more expensive signing like Scott would take up a sizeable, yet not overwhelming, portion of Chicago’s budget space.  Rumors have persisted that the Cubs remain at least on the periphery of the Alex Bregman and Jack Flaherty markets, so despite Hoyer’s comments about the team’s focus on more lower-tier moves, Chicago can’t be entirely ruled out as a landing spot for either player until they sign elsewhere.  Bregman is reportedly not interested in a shorter-term deal with opt-outs while Flaherty is at least open to such an arrangement, so Flaherty could be a better fit as the type of “value-added” opportunity Ricketts describes (though any number of teams might also be interested in Flaherty in that same context).

The Cubs have taken a step back in their approach to payroll in recent years, as 2024 marked the first time since 2020 that Chicago’s Opening Day payroll landed within the league’s top ten spenders.  While the Cubs boosted payroll last year and into this offseason, some budget restraints are still clearly in place.  Most notably, the trade that sent Cody Bellinger to the Yankees was about unloading the majority of Bellinger’s remaining salary, in addition to clearing room for Tucker in Chicago’s outfield.

Fans have criticized Ricketts for this relative lack of spending from a big-market team, with some fingers pointed at the private investment firm Arctos for having an influence in this department.  Ricketts pushed back against this criticism in particular, noting that because Arctos has investments in multiple MLB teams, “they’re not allowed to participate in any baseball discussions, so they’re walled off from anything to do with payroll or player analysis….Ultimately, the private equity investors have very long-term horizons and are just looking to participate in the appreciation of sports assets in general.  They don’t need certain win totals or cash-flow numbers.  They’re just strong, silent partners.”

As always, the Competitive Balance Tax is calculated via average annual value plus additional player benefits, as opposed to just straight dollars — this is why the Cubs’ $227.7MM payroll in 2024 translated to a $239.9MM tax number, which put Chicago slightly over the $237MM tax threshold.  This means that the Cubs would have to give up two draft picks in order to sign a qualified free agent like Bregman, which is why non-qualified free agents like Scott or Flaherty could be preferable.

Not coincidentally, the Cubbies’ scaled-back spending through a semi-rebuild coincided with a dearth of postseason baseball.  After reaching the postseason in 2020, the Cubs had sub-.500 seasons in both 2021 and 2022 before posting identical 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons.  There has been plenty of frustration among Cubs fans over the last two years’ worth of near-misses, and it has led to speculation that Hoyer is facing extra pressure as he enters the last year of his contract as the team’s PBO.

Ricketts downplayed the idea of 2025 as a particularly important season, noting that “every year, the goal is the playoffs.”  While Ricketts didn’t give Hoyer an outright vote of confidence in terms of promised job security, the chairman did praise Hoyer’s big-picture approach to roster-building.

“You evaluate the front office on a couple levels.  Obviously, No. 1, is just the wins on the field,” Ricketts said.  “That’s the most obvious metric to check.  But it’s just overall organizational health.  One thing that’s been very encouraging over the past few years is that we have drafted better. And the guys that we have drafted have developed more quickly than some years past.  We put ourselves really behind the eight-ball a few years ago with a series of drafts that weren’t very productive.  And I think we’re on the other side of that now.  We’ve got a lot of players coming through, which will give Jed a lot of trade capital to go into the future.”

Evaluators and pundits have increasingly praised the state of the Cubs’ farm system, and this depth already manifested itself in the Tucker trade.  Isaac Paredes was included in the three-player trade package to the Astros because the Cubs have confidence that Matt Shaw is ready for regular third-base work, plus top prospect Cam Smith was also sent to Houston in the deal.

“Maybe in a few years, people will say we should have traded somebody else,” Ricketts said.  “But that’s what it is – there’s a balance to every trade.  In this case, I think Jed was right in assessing that we needed an impact bat this season.”

Ricketts also added that “hopefully, [Tucker will] enjoy his time here and he’ll be here a long time.”  Tucker is a free agent after the season, and while Ricketts naturally isn’t going to outright say that the Cubs view him as a just a one-year rental, his comment at least leaves open the possibility that the Cubs are willing to give Tucker the mega-deal that he’ll undoubtedly command if he keeps up his current form.  Jason Heyward’s $184MM contract remains the most expensive deal in Cubs history, and the club is very likely going to have to at least double that price to re-sign Tucker.

Cubs, Kyle Tucker Avoid Arbitration

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The Cubs and Kyle Tucker have avoided arbitration, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The outfielder will make $16.5MM next year and won’t need to go to a hearing. Tucker is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Last week was the arbitration filing deadline, meaning that any teams and players who did not come to agreements had to exchange filing figures. The Cubs and Tucker did not agree, with the club filing at $15MM and Tucker at $17.5MM. The $2.5MM gap between their numbers was the largest of the 17 filings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary this year. If a hearing came to pass, the arbiter would have had to select either Tucker’s number or the club’s, with no ability to pick a midpoint.

That made the likelihood of a hearing very high. Teams and players are allowed to continue negotiating and free to reach deals after the filing deadline, though most teams take a “file-and-trial” approach these days. That means they have a policy against doing one-year deals after the deadline, thus giving them leverage in salary talks. When a file-and-trial team does a deal after the deadline, it usually involves an extra year, perhaps as an option. That prevents it from being used as a precedent in future arbitration calculations, so the overall trend of file-and-trial policies is to slow the inflation of salaries.

The Cubs have been a file-and-trial team, as most are these days, but have made an exception here. None of the reporting on Tucker’s deal suggests that there’s any kind of option. He is an impending free agent and excellent player, so he wasn’t going to give away a free agent year on a club option. The two sides could have agreed to some kind of mutual option that would never be picked up, but don’t appear to have done so.

It’s unclear why the Cubs broke from their usual policy here, paying Tucker beyond the midpoint of the filing numbers and his MLBTR projection. Speculatively speaking, it could be because he was just acquired from the Astros and the Cubs didn’t want to tarnish the beginning of their relationship with their new star player. An arbitration hearing can sometimes lead to friction between player and team, with Corbin Burnes with the Brewers and Ryan Helsley with the Cardinals some recent examples. Burnes spoke of his negative arbitration experience in February of 2023, while Helsley recounted his to Foul Territory in March of last year.

Tucker has previously gone to an arbitration hearing. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2023, with he and the Astros unable to reach an agreement for his salary that year. He filed at $7.5MM and the Astros at $5MM, with the club ultimately emerging victorious. The two sides avoided arbitration for 2024 by agreeing to a $12MM salary.

It’s also perhaps possible that the Cubs would like to keep Tucker for the long term and didn’t want to sour the relationship with a bad first impression. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently appeared on the Cubs Rekap Podcast with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer (hat tip to Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation) and discussed Tucker’s situation, downplaying his concern about the relationship with Tucker. He also said that there are no conversations about an extension. Though the Cubs would love to have Tucker long term, Hoyer suggested they would probably approach him about contract talks later, suggesting that playing in front of the home crowd at Wrigley would help their chances.

While it may be true that Tucker will enjoy the experience of being a Cub this year, there are still reasons to expect an extension isn’t likely. He’s been one of the best players in baseball recently. In the eyes of FanGraphs, he essentially averaged five wins above replacement per year from 2020 to 2023. He produced 1.8 fWAR in the shortened 2020 season, then finished the next three seasons with either 4.9 or 5.0 fWAR. In 2024, he took things to a new level with 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games, missing significant time due to a shin fracture.

He has hit .279/.358/.525 over those five seasons for a wRC+ of 143. He has stolen 88 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense. His 20.9 fWAR over those years puts him in the top 15 among all position players in the league. He likely would have been in the top ten if not for fouling a ball off his shin and fracturing it last year.

Given that production and the fact that Tucker is set to be a free agent going into his age-29 season, he is well positioned for a significant payday. To lock up an MVP-caliber player a year before free agency isn’t cheap, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Mookie Betts got $365MM from the Dodgers while Francisco Lindor got $341MM from the Mets. The largest deal in Cubs’ history is their $184MM pact with Jason Heyward, so they would likely have to double that to keep Tucker from becoming a free agent next winter.

Giants Declined To Include Bryce Eldridge In Tucker/Crochet Trade Offers

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The Giants were known to have had interest in Kyle Tucker before the Astros traded the outfielder to the Cubs, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly shared some details on that pursuit plus the new information that the Giants were one of the many teams who talked to the White Sox about Garrett Crochet.  San Francisco “made legitimate offers” for both Tucker and Crochet, Baggarly writes, “to the point that [the Giants] were said to feel a bit uncomfortable with the players they were willing to sacrifice.”  However, neither offer included top prospect Bryce Eldridge, and thus no trades materialized since the Astros and Sox each viewed Eldridge’s inclusion as “a prerequisite.”

Eldridge was the 16th overall pick of the 2023 draft, and he has already hit .292/.379/.514 with 29 home runs over 649 plate appearances in the minors even before he turned 20 years old last October.  This hot hitting saw Eldridge moved up the ladder to four different affiliates during the 2024 season, though it is worth noting that his numbers dropped off (in small sample sizes) as he played higher levels of minor league ball.  Eldridge had a more modest .785 OPS in 40 PA with Double-A Richmond and then a .601 OPS in 35 PA with Triple-A Sacramento.

Since he has already reached Triple-A, it isn’t out of the question that Eldridge’s MLB debut could come during the 2025 season, especially given how San Francisco was already aggressive with his early promotions.  LaMonte Wade Jr. is a free agent next winter and has been the subject of trade speculation even this offseason, so the path should soon be clear for Eldridge as the Bay Area’s first baseman of the future.  While the Giants will naturally want to see him post better numbers in the upper minors before calling him to the Show, it is easy to see the potential in the 6’7″, 223-pound first baseman.

Eldridge fits the mold of a classic left-handed slugger, and scouting reports from both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America praise his huge power and his mature approach at the plate.  Pipeline and BA each place Eldridge 35th in the most recent editions of their league-wide top-100 prospects rankings.  He is the only Giants minor leaguer in Baseball America’s rankings, while Pipeline also has James Tibbs III (the 13th overall pick of the 2024 draft) 88th on their list.

In either case, Eldridge is certainly the top prospect in a San Francisco farm system that is considered to be relatively thin, so it isn’t surprising that the Giants aren’t eager to move him in any trades.  Obviously this is a big roadblock in negotiations, since as Baggarly notes, “any team dangling a solid-average everyday player or better is going to start by asking for Eldridge — and not likely to move off that position.”

The White Sox were known to be focusing on young position players in exchange for Crochet, and indeed three of the four prospects Chicago received from the Red Sox in the trade package were position players.  As per Pipeline’s rankings of San Francisco’s farm system, the Giants are slightly deeper in position players than pitchers, though not to the level of Boston’s depth.  Likewise, the Cubs still have a wealth of position players in their minor league system even after moving Cam Smith as part of the Tucker trade.

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey and GM Zack Minasian have yet to complete a trade in their limited time leading the San Francisco front office, though in the view of rival executives, Baggarly hears the Giants have been “hyperactive in attempting to generate trade dialogue.”  Since questions remain about how much ownership is willing to commit to the payroll this season, the trade market could therefore be the Giants’ best method of adding talent to the roster, though that creates another layer of complication if other teams are chiefly focused on Eldridge among the minor league prospects.  As Baggarly frames the situation, some other front offices have been trying to see if they can get Posey or Minasian to bite on an unfavorable trade out of sheer inexperience, which has “led to a few opening offers…that have amounted to non-starters and time wasters.”

In terms of other trade candidates, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle details some of the players the Giants could still look to pry away from rival teams, and reports that the Giants “had some interest” in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner earlier this winter.  The past-tense phrasing, however, indicates that San Francisco moved on after signing Willy Adames as the new everyday shortstop, so Tyler Fitzgerald now looks to move from shortstop to second base.

MLBTR Podcast: Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Jed Hoyer Discusses Kyle Tucker, Corner Infield Plans

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The Cubs pulled off a huge deal last week, acquiring outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Cubs in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to members of the media today (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score and Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times), addressing Tucker and the club’s corner infield options.

While Tucker is a big upgrade for the 2025 team, he is set to be a free agent after that. That means he doesn’t currently provide the Cubs any value beyond the upcoming season, apart from the extra draft pick they would receive if he rejects a qualifying offer at season’s end and then signs elsewhere.

The Cubs could always change that future by signing Tucker to an extension, something that Hoyer touched upon a bit. “I don’t know what the future holds,” he said. “But obviously Chicago sells itself really well. And so, I’m excited to bring him in for this year, and we’ll see where it goes beyond that. But clearly this was the kind of player that we lacked.”

It’s fair to assume that the Cubs would love to have Tucker beyond just the one year. They clearly value the player highly, based on the strong package of talent they gave up just for that one season, plus the aforementioned QO compensation. Tucker himself also spoke today (per Levine) and said he’s open to having talks before he hits the open market.

While it’s nice that Tucker is open to having talks, agreeing on a price point might be a challenge. Tucker has been one of the better players in baseball in recent years and is slated to hit free agency ahead of his age-29 season. To get a really good player to sign an extension just before hitting free agency ahead of his 30th birthday isn’t cheap, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Some recent examples include $365MM for Mookie Betts, $341MM for Francisco Lindor and $313.5MM for Rafael Devers.

It’s a somewhat similar situation to the one that just played out between Juan Soto and the Yankees. He was acquired from the Padres with one year remaining before hitting free agency, said he was open to contract talks at any time, but ultimately became a free agent and signed a mega deal with the Mets.

With the Cubs, it’s arguably even less likely to get done. Tucker’s earning power isn’t as high as Soto’s but the Cubs have never given out deals even to that Betts/Lindor/Devers level. Jason Heyward’s $184MM deal is still the largest in franchise history, even though it’s almost a decade old at this point. Since Hoyer took over, the club’s largest deal has been $177MM for Dansby Swanson, the only time he’s gone higher than $85MM. Perhaps they are willing to break that pattern for Tucker, who they clearly like, but it would likely require them to effectively double the Heyward/Swanson deals.

Hoyer also addressed the third base situation at Wrigley, as trading Paredes created an opening there. It has been expected that the club would be willing to give prospect Matt Shaw to take that spot. Hoyer seems to be open to that coming to pass, saying that Shaw would get a “long look”, though he wouldn’t just call it a done deal. “He has to earn that job,” Hoyer said. “I’m not going to gift him that on a conference call in the middle of December.”

That’s a fair position to take. Though Shaw has performed very well in the minors, even the best prospects can struggle when first called up to the majors, so nothing can be taken for granted. Selected 13th overall last summer, Shaw has slashed .303/.384/.522 so far in 159 minor league games across different levels. That includes a line of .298/.395/.534 in 35 Triple-A games to finish his 2024 season, so there’s definitely an argument for him cracking the majors to start 2025.

But since there’s no guarantee he will hit the ground running, the Cubs will need to have backup plans. The Cubs had six players spend at least 85 innings at third this year, but Miles Mastrobuoni is the only one of the six left on the roster. As mentioned, Paredes was in the Tucker deal. The Cubs traded Christopher Morel to the Rays in order to acquire Paredes in the first place. Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom were non-tendered at season’s end. David Bote was outrighted off the roster in August.

Infielder Gage Workman was just grabbed from the Tigers in the Rule 5 draft, so he has a roster spot for now, but he doesn’t have any major league nor any Triple-A experience. Ben Cowles and Luis Vázquez are other multi-positional infielders currently on the 40-man. Perhaps the Cubs will look at adding to that group by signing a veteran utility man, whether that’s to a modest major league deal or a minor league pact.

One thing that is apparently not under consideration is moving Michael Busch across the diamond. The club had an outfield logjam but Cody Bellinger can play first, so it was theoretically possible for them to open that spot for Bellinger by moving Busch to the hot corner, a position where he has 99 1/3 innings of major league experience. But Busch got strong grades for his first base defense this year and Hoyer suggested their focus would be keeping him there. Bellinger was traded to the Yankees after Hoyer’s comments this afternoon.

Unrelated to Hoyer’s comments, there was another Cubs tidbit of note this week. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic report that the club has considered the possibility of stretching out right-hander Nate Pearson as a starter.

There’s some merit to the plan but it may be difficult to pull off. Pearson was a starting pitching prospect of note with the Blue Jays before injuries pushed him into a relief role. As recently as July, he expressed an interest in returning to a rotation role, shortly before he was traded to the Cubs.

Bullpen-to-rotation conversions have been all the rage lately. Some recent success stories have included Michael King, Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet and others. It doesn’t always work, with the A.J. Puk experiment one attempt that didn’t pan out, but clubs seem to be warm to the idea. The Mets have signed Clay Holmes with a plan of stretching him out next year and there have been some reports suggesting Jeff Hoffman might get a rotation gig next year as well.

With Pearson, it’s tough to see a path next year. The Cubs already have Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in the rotation, with reported interest in Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins as well. They also have Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton and other potential starters around, so all those guys might not leave a lot of room for Pearson to get big league starts. As such, Mooney and Sharma admit that Pearson is most likely to stick in a relief role next year.

Details On Yankees’ Pursuit Of Kyle Tucker

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Before Kyle Tucker was traded from the Astros to the Cubs, the Yankees were known to be one of the teams also vying to land the star outfielder.  Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil was reportedly of interest to the Astros in these trade talks, but New York ultimately turned down Houston’s demand for Gil and infield prospect George Lombard Jr. in exchange for Tucker, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

It makes for an interesting contrast to the trade package that the Astros did accept from Chicago.  Lombard and prospect Cam Smith could be viewed as essentially a match as recent first-round draft picks, though Smith is higher regarded in the view of MLB Pipeline (Smith is 73rd on their top-100 prospect list and Lombard isn’t on the list).  Gil is a controllable pitcher who has already made a name for himself at the big league level, so Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski represent something of a split of those two resume points.  Wesneski is controlled through 2029 and has a solid 3.93 ERA over his 190 Major League innings, but he isn’t considered to have quite Gil’s ceiling, so making up that difference could’ve been achieved by adding a proven hitter like Paredes.

Landing three players instead of two obviously allowed the Astros to address more needs, as Paredes can help fill one of Houston’s corner infield vacancies and Wesneski brings rotation depth.  Gil would’ve been a more clear-cut installation into the Astros rotation and perhaps then necessitated another trade, since the Astros on paper have a surplus of rotation options.  However, since Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both returning from lengthy injury absences, the Astros might also want to see how things play out in Spring Training before dealing an arm, lest the club again get caught with a lack of depth in the rotation.

Interestingly, the Yankees did indeed trade a starting pitcher and an infield prospect for a prominent star player with one year remaining before free agency, except rather than Gil/Lombard for Tucker, it was Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin going to the Brewers for closer Devin Williams.  The two trade packages have some differences, of course, as Cortes is a year away from free agency, and was viewed a more expendable part of New York’s pitching mix since he was relegated to bullpen duty in the playoffs and was floated in trade rumors at the deadline.  Durbin is also over five years older than Lombard and is considered to be on the verge of his MLB debut, whereas Lombard has yet to reach even the Double-A level.

The timing of the negotiations between the Astros and Yankees was perhaps also a factor.  If the Yankees were already well down the road in talks with Milwaukee about Williams, that might’ve made the Bronx Bombers less likely to deplete their pitching and prospect depth even further by accepting the Astros’ offer for Tucker.  Some New York fans might well wonder “why not both?”, as even without Gil or Cortes, the Yankees still have a projected starting five of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and newly-signed frontline arm Max Fried.  Acquiring both Tucker and Williams would’ve left the Yankees still in search of infield help and now a “sixth starter” type of depth arm, but those are perhaps minor question marks compared to the upside of bringing both an All-Star outfielder and All-Star closer into the mix.

Gil is a known quantity to baseball fans, but the 19-year-old Lombard was the 26th overall pick of the 2023 draft.  Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Lombard as the third-best prospect in New York’s farm system, viewing him as a very solid all-around player with five-tool potential, even if he perhaps lacks a true plus-plus calling card.  Lombard has played mostly shortstop in the minors and evaluators feel he can stick at the position, but he has also seen time at second and third base.  Lombard’s approach and overall hitting potential are both considered good, though he hit only .231/.338/.334 over 497 combined plate appearances with A-level Tampa and high-A Hudson Valley in 2024.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker

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The Cubs and Astros announced that they have made a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.

It’s a move that would have been completely shocking as recently as a few weeks ago. Tucker has been a key part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports emerged that the Astros were willing to listen to offers on Tucker as they looked to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. It appears that talks ramped up quickly and Houston found an offer they considered too good to pass up.

Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high profile draft picks that went on to be part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The club aggressively tanked last decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to sign Brady Aiken, their top pick in 2014, they received a compensation pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth overall selection on Tucker.

Both picks were big successes, as Bregman and Tucker each established themselves as All-Star capable big leaguers. This deal now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and might poetically point to the end of Bregman’s as well. Houston decision makers have long pointed to re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, as a top offseason priority. However, the two sides have reportedly remained far apart in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes might signal that Bregman won’t be coming back to Houston after all.

Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 home runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit exactly 30 in the first two of those campaigns and then 29 in the third. He also stole 69 bases in that time, had above average walk and strikeout rates and strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months due to a shin fracture but his limited performance was even stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.

Putting all of those traits together, Tucker was worth about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR even though he missed roughly half the year. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch puts him 13th among MLB position players, though he played fewer games than everyone ahead of him, thanks to that injury absence.

Unlike some other clubs, the Astros have shown a willingness to let their star players go get paid elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to sign with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a general reluctance to give out massive deals or pay the competitive balance tax. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension worth $157.5MM over six years is the biggest deal in franchise history, both in terms of years and dollars. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 but didn’t pay any taxes as the system was put on hold in the shortened season. 2024 was the first time they went over the line and actually had to pay the tax.

Coming into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed needed to “get a little bit creative” with the budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance a bit, but it appears the financial constraints are real. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made an offer to Bregman of $156MM but that he is looking for something closer to $200MM.

Tucker’s earning power next winter is likely to be even higher than Bregman’s is now. Bregman is going into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will be going into his age-29 campaign next winter.

It’s possible the Astros decided they weren’t likely to get a long-term deal done with either player and explored trade talks with Tucker, with this offer ticking a lot of boxes for them. It clears Tucker’s salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting those savings to Bregman is still possible but they’ve also found themselves a potential replacement in Paredes.

Over the past three years, Paredes has hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s also bounced around the infield, though has been at third base more than anywhere else. His defense at the hot corner has been close to average but it’s still made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR player recently. He is projected to make $6.9MM via arbitration next year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that.

Going to Houston might be an especially good fit for him, given that most of his home run power comes via pulling the ball towards the field foul pole. As pointed out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his home run total of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he played all his games in Houston and could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

It’s still possible that Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes over to first base, since the club is also looking for help there, but time will tell how viable that is. Houston could find cheaper solutions at first base and leave Paredes at third for the next few seasons.

The acquisition of Smith also provides the Astros with a potential third baseman for the future. He was just drafted by the Cubs with the 14th overall pick a few months ago and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his professional debut, getting into 32 games across three different levels, finishing at Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years, with Paredes eventually getting moved across the diamond.

The Astros also add a bit of pitching depth in the deal via Wesneski. The 27-year-old has decent underlying rates thus far in his career but problems with the long ball have pushed lots of runs across the plate. In 190 innings thus far in his career, he has a 23% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. But 35 home runs, a rate of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he can be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service time and can therefore be retained for another five seasons.

The club has plenty of question marks with its pitching right now. Each of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgeries, so each of those guys is a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez is also a trade candidate in the same vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure salary and is one year away from free agency. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this year. Ronel Blanco was huge for Houston but is fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Arrighetti was decent in his rookie year but it’s hard to bank on him at this point.

In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is another trade candidate. He’s set to make $14MM next year, the final season of his deal. Wesneski has worked both as a starter and as a reliever in his career, so he can help Houston in either department.

For the Cubs, it’s a lot to give up, and that’s especially true when looking back to their acquisition of Paredes. They just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a few months ago, getting Paredes ahead of the summer deadline. In a sense, they have given up those three players plus Smith and Wesneski in order to get just one season of Tucker.

But there are good reasons why they have paid such a price. The club has been hovering around .500 in recent years, having a squad full of good players but lacking in truly elite ones. They also possess a very strong pipeline of prospects, several of whom are pushing for major league playing time. They have shown a reluctance to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade has seemed like the best way for them to upgrade the roster.

Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned, he has been one of the best position players in the majors recently and immediately becomes the best player for the Cubbies. Perhaps the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker but that would require a very notable contract, the kind they haven’t given out recently. Even if Tucker is only at Wrigley for one year, the Cubs will at least be able to recoup draft pick compensation by issuing him the qualifying offer after 2025.

In addition to that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the gas pedal next year and the Reds and Pirates still struggling to come out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step forward, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some extra job security.

It’s also possible that they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they make a lot of sense for Houston. As mentioned, the Cubs have an excellent farm system. On Baseball America’s Top 100, they currently have six players on the list, which doesn’t even include Smith. Though it surely hurts to give up their most recent first round pick, the farm is still in good shape overall.

That farm might also be able to provide an immediate Paredes replacement. One of the club’s top prospects is Matt Shaw, who has played a bit of middle infield but a bit more at third.  He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that may have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher but he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely kept in a swing role.

It’s a huge move for both clubs and will surely lead to more, especially for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield mix even before adding Tucker into it. They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, not to mention prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki both have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.

One way or another, a move from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been connected to both Tucker and Bellinger, so perhaps they will now focus more on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.

For the Astros, what’s still unknown is if the door is totally closed to Bregman. It certainly feels like that may be the case, though it’s not impossible to see a path back to Houston. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax number at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman would certainly push them over, though not by as much now that Tucker’s gone. They could also theoretically lower their number by trading Valdez or Pressly. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing a new deal with Bregman for two years without it happening, so perhaps this is the door finally closing.

It’s also unknown if Houston is content with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a strong hitter but often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are other options on the roster, along with utility types like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group obviously looks weaker without Tucker in it, so perhaps the Astros will look to bolster the group in the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell how the move plays out in the full offseason for both clubs. But for today, the Cubs have added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros have lost that huge talent but could have made up a decent amount of his value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long term.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros were “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was done.

Cubs Close To Deal For Kyle Tucker

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1:20pm: Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is also involved in the talks, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

1:03pm: The Cubs and Astros are “close” to an agreement on a Tucker trade, tweets Heyman. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston reports that the two sides have discussed a return that would send Paredes, Smith and a third player to Houston.

12:56pm: Talks between the two sides have “continued to gain momentum,” Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Smith and Paredes are “among the names being discussed,” suggesting others could indeed be in play.

9:10am: The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. It’s not yet clear whether other players are involved on either end. There’s no indication a deal is nearing the finish line.

Tucker, 27, only recently emerged as a viable trade candidate. The former No. 5 overall pick broke out as an everyday player in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of the game’s best young players all around. Over the past four seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% walk rate and just a 15.1% strikeout rate. A fracture in his shin cost him much of the 2024 season, but he had his most productive season ever when healthy: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% walk rate in 78 games.

Tucker is a year from reaching free agency as a 28-year-old and is poised to command the type of mega-contract that Astros owner Jim Crane has been unwilling to offer; Houston’s longest contract under Crane has been Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal. Jose Altuve’s $151MM extension is the largest in terms of overall guarantee. Tucker could command double that guarantee in free agency over a significantly longer term than Alvarez’s deal.

For the Cubs, adding Tucker would only further increase the likelihood of trading Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant both in right field. Chicago already has young Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. Left fielder Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There’d be no obvious spot to play either Bellinger or Suzuki other than designated hitter. That’d be a waste of Bellinger’s solid defensive skills, and Suzuki has a preference to play in the field rather than slot in as a primary DH. He also has a full no-trade clause, further complicating matters.

The trio of players’ contracts are worth keeping in mind, too. Tucker is entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $15.8MM this coming season. Bellinger is guaranteed a $27.5MM salary next season and has a $25MM player option with a $5MM buyout for the 2026 season. In essence, he’s guaranteed at least $32.5MM for one year and perhaps $52.5MM over the next two seasons, pending that opt-out decision. Suzuki has two years to go on his five-year, $85MM contract and will earn $18MM in each of the next two seasons.

For the Astros, trading Tucker would be a tough pill to swallow. Crane has voiced a willingness to pay the luxury tax if the right situation presents itself but seems to rather clearly prefer to avoid doing so for what would be a second straight season. The ’Stros have been angling to bring longtime third baseman Alex Bregman back into the fold, but he’s been seeking a deal north of $200MM while Houston’s most recent reported offer was for six years and $156MM. That the Astros are looking at not only an immediate big league option at the hot corner (Paredes) but also a recent first-round pick whose primary position is third base (Smith) at least implies some pessimism of completing a reunion with Bregman.

That said, the Astros also have a need at first base. Paredes could capably fill that role, as he’s played all four infield positions throughout his big league career. He’s primarily been a third baseman, but he does have nearly 400 innings at first base under his belt. It’s at least possible that the Astros could use the payroll space created by a potential Tucker trade to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base and then simply be content to add a player with Smith’s overall upside to the upper tiers of their system. Smith isn’t likely to be a big league option until 2026 anyhow, and his bat is his calling card; a move to an outfield corner isn’t out of the question at some point.

Paredes, 26 in February, went from the Rays to the Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline and struggled in his new environs. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and belted 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and looked well on his way to approximating that production in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays prior to the trade. With Chicago, however, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash in 212 plate appearances.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who’s swatted 70 homers while playing four different positions across the past three seasons. He’s walked in a strong 11.2% of his plate appearances during that span against a 17.3% strikeout rate that’s about five percentage points lower than average. He’s projected to earn $6.9MM in 2025 and is under club control through the 2027 season. He’d be a long-term add for the Astros who can help out at a variety of positions and who would offer a solid bat against righties and plus production against southpaws (.274/.366/.456). On top of that, he ranked third among all qualified MLB hitters in pull percentage this season and posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate in that same set. An extreme-pull righty bat with that kind of penchant for elevating the ball seems almost tailor-made for Houston’s short left field porch.

Smith, meanwhile, was just selected with the No. 14 pick last summer and signed for a bonus a bit north of $5MM. The Florida State product absolutely torched minor league pitching with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances across two Class-A levels and Double-A. It was one of the best debut performances of any draftee and only served to further elevate his already considerable prospect stock. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that in 2024 boasted six of the game’s top 100 prospects. Smith will likely be included on several top-100 rankings ahead of the 2025 season.

Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros for a $215MM bottom-line payroll with nearly $234MM of luxury tax obligations. That leaves them about $7MM shy of this season’s $241MM tax threshold. Moving Tucker would open up quite a bit of breathing room, as would a trade of reliever Ryan Pressly, whose name has also frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He’s owed $14MM but can veto any trade scenario as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team). Astros general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that his club might need to be “creative” to address roster needs amid payroll uncertainty, and talk of potential deals involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez all fit under that umbrella.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Yankees, Cubs Interested In Kyle Tucker

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Astros general manager Dana Brown left the door open yesterday to trading either outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. Today, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link) reports that the Yankees and Cubs are two clubs interested in Tucker.

The news isn’t especially surprising. Tucker is one of the best players in the league and it would actually be more of a shock if any club weren’t interested in him. He is entering his final year of club control, which should eliminate teams fully in rebuild mode, but he should have broad interest apart from that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary next year, a notable sum but still affordable for any team and a bargain for a player of Tucker’s talent level.

From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s production was fairly consistent and also trending upward. He hit 30 home runs in the first two of those seasons and then 29 in the third. His walk and strikeout rates each made slight improvements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% in the next two seasons, while his strikeout rate went from 15.9% to 15.6% and then 13.9%. His stolen base total went from 14 to 25 to 30.

In 2024, he missed significant time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That injury limited his counting stats but he continued to improve on a rate basis. Though his strikeout rate ticked back up to 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Despite only getting into 78 games, he launched another 23 home runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his previous three seasons but jumped to 180 in 2024.

He’s also been graded as a strong defender and, as mentioned, can steal a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as worth either 4.9 or 5.0 wins above replacement in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2024 even though he played less than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the past four years, placing him in 13th among all position players for that span. Thanks to his shin injury, all 12 guys ahead of him on that list played in more games.

There are some rough parallels here with the Juan Soto situation from a year ago. The Padres were willing to make Soto’s final year of club control available on the trade market in order to walk a tightrope. They wanted to continue competing but had a tight budget and had several players that were difficult to trade due to contractual reasons. Moving Soto freed up a huge amount of payroll space and also brought back immediate help in other areas, as the Friars were able to get a package of players that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Cease.

The Astros are in a somewhat similar spot now. Brown previously said that the club might have to get creative with money this offseason, even though they still want to win next year. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have big contracts but are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly each have the right to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be easily moved due to his health status.

They don’t really have to consider a trade but it seems they will pick up the phone and see if any club blows them away with a Soto-like package. Tucker’s track record isn’t quite as good as Soto’s but Soto was projected for a $33MM salary going into 2024, more than double what Tucker is slated to earn next year.

It’s theoretically possible that they can get a package of young talent they like while simultaneously freeing up some payroll space to re-sign Alex Bregman, since Brown and owner Jim Crane have both marked that as the club’s top priority. That would leave the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, though it’s possible they get some cheaper outfield help back in the trade.

The Yankees, of course, wanted to re-sign Soto as a free agent but he is now going to become a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a big hole in their outfield and they have to pivot to other possibilities. The free agent market features guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández while the Yankees have been connected to trade candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker would be a more attractive option than any of those three in a vacuum but a deal coming together would naturally depend on what it would take for the Astros to let him go.

The Yankees still have Aaron Judge as their outfield anchor and might move him back to right field for the post-Soto era, with Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham options for center. Tucker is strong in right field, so perhaps the Yanks would consider moving him to left. Due to the short porch in right, there’s more grass to cover in left field, making defense over there more of a concern.

There shouldn’t be any financial issue, as the Yankees just reportedly make Soto an offer of $760MM over 16 years, an average annual value of $47.5MM. They will now be looking to spread that kind of money around to other players and Tucker is only projected to get about a third of that.

For the Cubs, they already have a crowded outfield picture but clearly have interest in shaking it up a bit. Bellinger has been in many rumors this winter and Seiya Suzuki’s name has come up as well. Trading either is complicated, in Bellinger’s case due to his upcoming out-out while Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. Those two project to be in an outfield group that also includes Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as youngsters like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ also has a no-trade clause while the Cubs probably want to hang onto the younger guys. Each of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger perhaps departing a year earlier than that.

As mentioned, just about every contender should be calling the Astros to get a sense of the asking price. There are no guarantees that he can be obtained but even the possibility that he’s available makes him one of the most interesting names to watch in the coming weeks.

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