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Cubs Place Kyle Tucker On Injured List

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The Cubs announced Tuesday that right fielder Kyle Tucker has been placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to Sept. 6) due to a strained left calf. Catcher Moises Ballesteros was recalled from Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move.

Tucker has been dealing with calf discomfort for a week. He was lifted midway through last Tuesday’s game and hasn’t played since then. The Cubs kept him on the roster for what they initially believed would be a day-to-day issue. Tucker hasn’t improved as quickly as they hoped, and he’ll now be ruled out for at least another week. Teams can only backdate an injured list placement for a maximum of three days even if the player’s last game action came before that.

This is the first injured list stint of the season for Tucker. He suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand on a stolen base attempt in early June. Tucker played through that injury. He initially remained productive but went into one of the worst six-week stretches of his career between July and the first half of August. Manager Craig Counsell gave him a brief reset with a trio of games on the bench. Tucker caught fire upon returning to the lineup but the calf shut him down a little less than two weeks later.

That the Cubs waited a week before placing Tucker on the injured list seems to suggest this isn’t a serious issue. He could return as soon as September 16 and would have a week and a half of reps before the start of the postseason. The Cubs aren’t playing for a whole lot this month. The Brewers have all but officially wrapped the NL Central. Chicago is eight games clear of the NL’s top non-playoff team, the Giants. While they’d presumably prefer to secure the top Wild Card spot rather than dropping to the #5 seed, that’s a relatively minor consideration. The far bigger concern is having Tucker at full strength in October.

Willi Castro and Seiya Suzuki will split the right field work in Tucker’s absence. Suzuki has gotten most of his at-bats at designated hitter. Ballesteros or Carlos Santana could pick up an extra start or two at DH on days when Suzuki draws into the outfield. Assuming Tucker makes it back before the end of the regular season, the injury shouldn’t have much or any impact on his impending free agency.

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia On Injured List

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September 8: Palencia has been placed on the 15-day injured list, according to multiple media personnel (including Marquee’s Taylor McGregor). Ethan Roberts has been recalled from Triple-A Iowa to take the open bullpen spot. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that Keller is likely to step into the ninth inning while Palencia is on the shelf.

September 7: The Cubs may be looking at going into the postseason without their closer. Daniel Palencia entered the ninth inning of Chicago’s game against the Nationals earlier today, but surrendered five runs and was pulled without recording an out. The team termed Palencia’s ailment “shoulder tightness” at the time of his removal, but manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) following the game that, more specifically, Palencia was suffering from a posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder.

While specifics beyond that diagnosis were few and far between in Counsell’s description of the situation, it seems all but certain that Palencia will require a trip to the injured list and be out for quite a while. Strains can naturally vary in severity substantially, but one relatively recent example of a pitcher dealing with a posterior capsule strain is Mets right-hander Kodai Senga, who was shut down due to a moderate strain in February of 2024. That kicked off what was more or less a lost season for Senga due to multiple injuries, but the initial diagnosis for that strain was expected to shut him down from throwing for three weeks.

A similar timeline would knock Palencia out for, at minimum, the remainder of the regular season and would likely result in him returning this year only if the Cubs make a relatively deep run into the postseason. Of course, it’s possible that Palencia’s capsule strain proves to be a relatively mild one that requires less time off, and it’s not impossible to imagine that he could be back on the big league mound for in time for the tail end of the regular season; a 15-day stint on the injured list, at this point, would allow Palencia to return to action during the club’s final two series of the regular season against the Mets and Cardinals.

However long Palencia ultimately ends up being sidelined, the news is a brutal blow to Chicago. Acquired from the A’s in exchange for Andrew Chafin at the 2021 trade deadline, Palencia made his big league debut in 2023 but has rounded into form as a dominant closer this year. Entering play today, the 25-year-old had posted a 2.12 ERA with a 2.59 FIP and 28.8% strikeout rate in 51 innings of work for the Cubs this year. He’s walked just 7.8% of his opponents faced and picked up 22 saves in 24 opportunities this year to go with six holds. That dominant production convinced the Cubs to back off the from the high leverage relief market. They targeted Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers to bolster their bullpen rather than landing a more surefire closer like David Bednar or Jhoan Duran.

With Palencia seemingly out of commission for the time being, manager Craig Counsell will now have to reconfigure his bullpen for the stretch run. Rogers has struggled since joining the Cubs, but Kittredge figures to be part of the late-inning mix for the Cubs alongside Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and perhaps Drew Pomeranz. Keller and Thielbar in particular appear likely to be in the conversation for save opportunities given their dominant seasons with the Cubs this year. Keller has a 2.20 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 59 appearances, while Thielbar sports a 2.15 ERA and 2.68 FIP in 58 outings.

Palencia’s injury is the latest frustrating development for a Cubs team that already had both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker miss todays game due to injuries. Fortunately, Counsell provided a positive update to reporters (including Levine) regarding the status of both hitters. Counsell indicated that Crow-Armstrong, who exited yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off of his shin, could be back in the lineup as soon as tomorrow for the start of the club’s series in Atlanta. As for Tucker, the All-Star hasn’t played since exiting Tuesday’s game against the Braves and Levine notes that he’s unlikely to be back in the lineup tomorrow. Even so, Counsell suggested that his running improved today and that he’s trending in the right direction towards a return to action in the near future.

Cubs Notes: Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, Caissie

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The Cubs have been without Kyle Tucker since he exited Tuesday’s game against the Braves due to a calf issue, and it’s unclear when he’ll be returning to the lineup. Yesterday, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (as relayed by Marquee Sports Network on social media) that Tucker “didn’t really make progress” during Thursday’s day off, and would be out of the lineup for another day before adding that today would be a “big day” in terms of deciding how to proceed.

That language seemed to suggest that an injured list stint was in the cards for Tucker if he wasn’t healthy enough to return to the lineup today, and Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that outfield prospect Owen Caissie was scratched from Triple-A Iowa’s lineup and brought to Chicago in case a roster move was necessary. Ultimately, however, Tucker remains day-to-day and out of the lineup without a roster move. Counsell told reporters (as noted by Marquee) today that the club thinks that they “have time to let this heal” without an IL stint, seemingly indicating that he’ll be back in the lineup within the next few days.

Injured list stints can be backdated a maximum of three days, meaning that if Tucker had gone on the shelf today he’d be eligible to return for next weekend’s series against the Rays. In that time, Caissie could have joined with fellow top prospect Kevin Alcantara to form a platoon in right field, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Ian Happ in right while utility man Willi Castro and DH Seiya Suzuki serve as backup options in the outfield. Instead, the Cubs have opted to keep Tucker on the roster, with Suzuki and Castro splitting time in right field while Carlos Santana fills in at DH on days where Suzuki is in the outfield.

A roster move to bolster the outfield mix may yet be necessary, however. Crow-Armstrong exited today’s loss against the Nationals due to a knee contusion after fouling a ball off of his knee. As he told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) after the game, the incident has caused “a whole different kind of pain” than he’s used to. Crow-Armstrong went on to indicate that a decision on his status going forward won’t be made clear until tomorrow, but it seems feasible he might be ticketed for either an injured list stint or at least a few days off due to the injury. Having both Tucker and Crow-Armstrong unavailable on the bench would stretch the Cubs rather thin, given that both Justin Turner and Carlos Santana are limited to first base and DH duties only. Those two could handle DH while Suzuki, Castro, and Alcantara mix and match between right and center field, but that’s a less than ideal solution and simply placing one of their two ailing outfielders on the shelf to make room for Caissie may wind up being preferable.

The Cubs have the good fortune of having relatively little to play for over the final few weeks of the regular season. Fangraphs gives the club a 99.8% chance to secure a playoff spot this season, while their odds of surpassing the surging Brewers in the NL Central sit at a paltry 3.1%. With a Wild Card berth more or less guaranteed, Chicago could surely afford to place either Tucker or Crow-Armstrong (or, perhaps, both) on the injured list and fill out their roster with prospects at Triple-A already on the 40-man roster like Caissie and Moises Ballesteros if they think resting their stars could put them in a better position to win in October. Of course, with Crow-Armstrong slumping badly in recent weeks (.178/.225/.243 since August 1) and Tucker having recently broken out of his own slump, it’s also possible that they would benefit from getting as many reps as possible in order to get back on track before the playoffs.

Kyle Tucker Was Diagnosed With Hairline Hand Fracture In June

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Cubs star Kyle Tucker suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand back in June, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Tucker jammed his right hand diving into second base on a stolen base attempt in a game against the Reds on June 1. Manager Craig Counsell subsequently confirmed the June fracture but says Tucker is now healthy (via Rogers).

Initial x-rays came back negative. However, Rogers writes that follow-up testing revealed a small fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky. The Cubs did not announce the diagnosis at the time, and Tucker has not spent any time on the injured list. The four-time All-Star preferred to play through the injury.

In retrospect, it’s fair to question whether that was prudent. Tucker had been one of the best hitters in MLB for the season’s first two months. He owned a .284/.395/.524 slash with 12 homers across 269 plate appearances through June 1. Since then, he’s batting .236/.352/.368 in almost the exact same amount of playing time. Tucker has connected on six longballs over the past two and a half months.

While the injury certainly seems to be having an impact, it’s worth noting that Tucker actually continued to play well in the immediate aftermath. He hit .311 with five homers in June. It wasn’t until July that things went completely off the rails. He’s batting .189/.325/.235 with one homer in his past 38 games.

Tucker’s plate discipline remains strong — he has actually walked more often than he has struck out during that stretch — but his power has completely evaporated. His rate of hard contact (batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH) was between 44-50% in each of the first two months. It remained solid at 42.9% in June but has plummeted below 30% in each of the past two months.

That kind of play from a hitter of Tucker’s caliber has naturally led to speculation about his health. Pat Murphy, manager of the Milwaukee team that is playing the Cubs this week, opined that the outfielder was playing through an injury. “I think Tucker’s hurt. I don’t have any information, but Tucker’s not the same,” Murphy said on 670 The Score.

Tucker himself has maintained that he’s physically ok. However, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer conceded to Rogers “that when you look at his numbers, it’s had an impact on him, for sure. That’s the nature sometimes of these small injuries. They can do that.” Counsell has kept Tucker out of the lineup for the past three games — two days, including a doubleheader on Tuesday. Chicago won all three games over the MLB-best Brewers with Owen Caissie playing right field. Counsell hasn’t committed to Tucker’s status for tomorrow’s series finale.

The Cubs remain six games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central. They’re comfortably in Wild Card position, which gives them the flexibility to mix in more off days for Tucker if necessary. They’ll need to find a way to get him back to being productive if they hope to make a deep playoff run. The injury and slump obviously come at an inopportune time for Tucker personally, as he’s a couple months from free agency. He’s the clear #1 player in the class and generally expected to command $400MM+ as he enters his age-29 season.

Poll: How Will Kyle Tucker Finish 2025?

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Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a massive extension with the Blue Jays back in April, Kyle Tucker has been viewed as the consensus top player in this winter’s free agent class. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s a four-time All-Star, a former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award winner, and the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP voting in 2023. That resume is what convinced the Cubs to trade All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith, and young starter Hayden Wesneski to the Astros last winter in order to acquire Tucker in his final year of club control.

It’s a decision that paid off in a big way during the first half of the season. Through the end of June, Tucker slashed an phenomenal .291/.395/.537 across 83 games. Among qualified hitters, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith had a higher wRC+ than Tucker’s 158 during that stretch. While it wasn’t quite on par with the otherworldly 179 wRC+ Tucker posted in 78 games with the Astros last year, it was still an undeniably dominant showing that led to many wondering if he would join Guerrero and Juan Soto in clearing the $500MM benchmark upon hitting free agency this winter.

Once the calendar flipped to July, however, things changed for Tucker in a hurry. In 163 plate appearances since the start of July, Tucker has hit just .189/.325/.235 with a wRC+ of just 72. He’s tallied just four extra-base hits in that time and has gone a full month without hitting a home run at this point after launching his last long ball on July 19. Tucker’s slump has been lengthy enough and severe enough that club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) yesterday that he plans to give Tucker “some days off” in hopes of helping him reset and get back on track.

That the Cubs are sitting a player who looked like a legitimate MVP candidate just over a month ago is inherently shocking, but it’s hard not to see why given his recent performance. It’s fair to wonder how Tucker’s deep struggles of late may have impacted his market in free agency, as well. After all, a major calling card for Tucker has been his consistency and reliability as a middle-of-the-order force. An extended slump such as this one puts a hole in that narrative, especially when combined with him missing half of last season due to injury.

When looking at other outfielders who signed mega deals in free agency, Tucker’s resume doesn’t quite measure up. He no longer seems likely to wind up with an absurd platform season like Judge (nine years, $360MM) put together in 2022, and he’s three years older than Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) was when he reached free agency. The inflation top-level MLB contracts have seen in recent years should help Tucker, especially as compared to Harper’s contract from all the way back in the 2018-19 offseason, but if his season doesn’t turn around going forward he may not even crack the $400MM threshold in free agency, much less $500MM.

So, will Tucker be able to turn things around? There’s certainly some reasons for optimism. Most notably, his discipline at the plate has remained elite even during his slump. Since July 1, Tucker has actually walked (16.0%) more often than he’s struck out (15.3%). His .224 BABIP during that period suggests some positive regression could be on the way in terms of batted ball luck, but even underlying metrics like hard-hit rate (27.9%) and barrel rate (2.7%) suggest he’s earned his lack of power production. There’s been speculation in some circles that a finger injury suffered when sliding into second base could be the cause of his power outage, but that’s a somewhat dubious claim between Tucker himself suggesting his finger has not caused him problems at the plate and the fact that he had a 14.7% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in 24 June games following his return from the injury.

It would be a shock if Tucker truly batted below the Mendoza line with virtually no power the rest of the way this year. He’s been a bottom 20 player in baseball since July 1 in terms of wRC+, and it’s practically unheard of for a player of his caliber to perform that poorly for that long when not dealing with some sort of physical issue or age-related decline. With that said, it’s worth noting that Tucker’s recent slump has actually put his 2025 numbers more or less in line with his career norms. Tucker is hitting .261/.374/.447 with a 131 wRC+ overall this year. Through the end of the 2023 season, Tucker was a career .272/.345/.507 (132 wRC+) hitter.

Those slash lines are awfully similar, and it stands to reason that it’s at least possible Tucker’s incredible 78-game 2024 campaign was simply an outlier. On the other hand, it must also be noted that Tucker put together 709 plate appearances between the start of the 2024 season and the end of June 2025 where he hit a combined .290/.401/.559 with a wRC+ of 168. Only Judge (218), Ohtani (179), and Soto (171) posted better numbers during that time frame. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker is able to recapture some of that production over the season’s final six weeks and ends up with a strong platform year, even if it doesn’t quite reach the heights that looked possible two months ago.

What do MLBTR readers think is in store for Tucker over the final weeks of the 2025 campaign? Will he be able to turn things around and quell any doubts created by his recent struggles? Will his slump continue and push his season numbers lower than they are now? Or will his numbers settle in as he levels off somewhere close to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Kyle Tucker finish the 2025 season?
Tucker won't completely turn things around, but will enjoy enough positive regression to match his career norms. 59.27% (2,689 votes)
Tucker's slump will continue, and he'll finish with the worst full season of his career. 25.04% (1,136 votes)
Tucker will turn things around and put up numbers similar to his first half production. 15.69% (712 votes)
Total Votes: 4,537

Poll: Who’s The Best Pure Hitter In This Winter’s Free Agent Class?

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In the context of free agency, MLB players are typically graded on their overall long-term value and earning power. MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list is typically topped by all-around star talents who are in the midst of their prime years. Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge are outliers even among top-of-the-line free agents, but previous years saw well-rounded hitters still in their prime with substantial defensive value like Carlos Correa, J.T. Realmuto, and Anthony Rendon viewed as the top hitters available in free agency.

With all respect to Realmuto, however, even his best years haven’t seen him offer the kind of offensive firepower that someone like Nelson Cruz could offer within that very same free agent class. If a team was looking specifically for a impactful addition to the lineup, they might not necessarily be drawn to the top free agent position player. This winter, there’s little question about who the top free agent position player will be in terms of overall value and earning power. With that said, there’s a number of extremely impactful hitters who figure to be available. Who’s the best choice to transform a lineup? A look at some of the options:

Kyle Tucker

Ever since the Blue Jays signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a massive extension shortly after Opening Day, there’s been virtually no debate who free agency’s top overall player would be this winter. Kyle Tucker spent years as a key cog in the Astros’ dynasty, and is one of the most impressive overall talents in the game at the moment. This ranking isn’t about earning power or even overall value, but Tucker remains one of the top players in the sport even when strictly looking at offensive production. Looking at his time in Chicago this year, the star outfielder has slashed .284/.394/.515 (153 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts, 13 homers, and 18 steals across 72 games for a first-place Cubs team this year.

That’s a phenomenal performance, but Tucker has also been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Since his first full 162-game season in 2021, Tucker’s a 146 wRC+ hitter whose strikeout rate has always been below 16%. His walk rate has never fallen below 9%, and that combination of patience and contact ability is unmatched. Among the hitters with the 30 lowest strikeout rates in the sport, Tucker walks the most. Among the hitters with the 30 highest walk rates in the sport, Tucker strikes out the least. He’s the only player within the top 30 of both categories over the past five years, and he’s combined that with the power to hit 30 homers and the speed to steal 30 bases.

Pete Alonso

After finding an extremely soft market in free agency last year, Alonso returned to the Mets on a two-year deal that affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2025 season. That opt-out opportunity seems certain to be exercised at this point, as Alonso has taken his game to the next level for his age-30 campaign. In 69 games this year, Alonso has slashed an incredible .293/.390/.570 (169 wRC+) in 72 games. In addition to his 17 home runs so far this year, Alonso’s floating a career-high 11.0% walk rate with his lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) since 2022 while swatting an NL-best 22 doubles.

Perhaps most exciting of all is that there’s some reason to believe he’s been even better than those numbers indicate. His 20.9% barrel rate is nothing short of absurd, his xwOBA is actually more than twenty points higher than his wOBA, and that .434 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Ohtani in the majors. He remains a limited defender who doesn’t excel at first base and will be returning to free agency at age 31, but none of that stops him from being one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport who would improve virtually any lineup.

Alex Bregman

Another star player who wound up signing a short-term deal this winter, Bregman took off early with the Red Sox and slashed .299/.385/.553 (158 wRC+) across 51 games while playing quality defense at third base. It was a hot enough start to raise the question of whether he’d consider opting out of the two years and $80MM remaining on his deal with the Red Sox this winter. That’s certainly still possible, but a “significant” quad strain has now sidelined him for the foreseeable future. A lengthy injury layoff could make Bregman hesitate to leave that much guaranteed money on the table, and this weekend’s blockbuster trade that sent Rafael Devers from the Red Sox to the Giants could leave Boston brass eager to keep their other star third baseman in the fold long-term.

Setting aside the possibility Bregman doesn’t even end up returning to the open market, it’s also worth noting that his underlying numbers aren’t as strong as his actual production so far this year. Bregman’s .331 BABIP this season is nearly fifty points higher than his career mark and with his strikeout rate the highest it’s been since 2018, it’s hard to imagine him maintaining his .385 on-base percentage long-term. Even so, Bregman’s looked rejuvenated in Boston after a down year during his final season in Houston. If he manages to return from injury looking strong, he’ll have put himself firmly in the conversation.

Kyle Schwarber

It’s been quite a while since Schwarber was available to teams in free agency, as what was at the time a career year in 2022 with the Nationals and Red Sox allowed him to land a four-year deal with the Phillies. Weak defense has pushed him into a full-time DH role over the years, but Schwarber’s bat has been everything Philadelphia could’ve hoped for when signing him. He’s slashed .224/.349/.494 (131 wRC+) with 153 homers in 538 games as a Phillie while walking at a 15.4% clip. That’s excellent offensive production, but what makes Schwarber truly stand out is the phenomenal walk year he’s in the midst of.

Through 71 games, 2025 has been the best season of Schwarber’s career by virtually every metric. He’s slashing .247/.379/.544 with a wRC+ of 155, his 16.2% walk rate is the fourth-highest figure in the majors this year, and he’s even cut his typically-high strikeout rate to a more manageable 26.1%, his lowest since 2019. He’s swatted 22 homers in 314 plate appearances as well, with a .297 ISO that trails only Judge, Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, and Corbin Carroll among qualified hitters this season. While he’ll be 33 next year, expected stats give no indication he’s at risk of dropping off, as his xwOBA has been almost 30 points higher than his actual wOBA this year.

Other Candidates

While Tucker, Alonso, Bregman, and Schwarber stand as the most likely candidates to enter free agency as the best hitter available, they’re far from the only possibilities. Paul Goldschmidt is a future Hall of Famer in the midst of a resurgent season at the plate, but he’ll be 38 next year and at risk of the sort of abrupt decline many hitters in their mid-to-late 30s face. Marcell Ozuna’s 145 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season is the 11th-highest figure in all of baseball, but he’ll turn 35 this November and his power output has already dropped off considerably this year. Ryan O’Hearn has put up brilliant numbers for the Orioles this year with a 152 wRC+, but hasn’t shown an ability to hit lefties to this point in his career and lacks the track record of many of these other players.

Who do MLBTR readers think will be the most impactful pure hitter available in free agency this winter? Have your say in the poll below:

Who's The Best Pure Hitter In This Winter's Free Agent Class?
Kyle Tucker 72.97% (3,560 votes)
Kyle Schwarber 9.33% (455 votes)
Pete Alonso 8.87% (433 votes)
Alex Bregman 6.68% (326 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 2.15% (105 votes)
Total Votes: 4,879

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

Poll: Kyle Tucker’s Earning Power

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The biggest news from the baseball world of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM extension with the Blue Jays, which will keep him in Toronto through the end of the 2039 season. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker were widely viewed as the top free agents of the coming offseason. Now that Guerrero is off the board, the top of the mountain belongs to Tucker, the superstar outfielder who the Cubs gave up a massive package (All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes, young starter Hayden Wesneski, and first-rounder Cam Smith) to acquire ahead of his final year of team control.

Tucker’s certainly validated that belief in him as an impact player during the early going this season. A career .276/.356/.520 hitter, he’s taken his game to an even higher level recently. Tucker emerged as an early-season MVP candidate last year before being limited to just 78 games by a fractured shin, but even in his last 250 games dating back to 2023, the 28-year-old is hitting .288/.387/.548 with a wRC+ of 157. That’s the fifth-highest figure among all hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that time, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and former teammate Yordan Alvarez.

That lofty company, combined with the huge expectations created by $700MM+ deals for the top-rated free agent in back-to-back offseasons, created plenty of intrigue about where Guerrero’s contract could end up prior to his extension with the Jays. His $500MM deal falls short of that $700MM mark both Ohtani and Soto reached, although Ohtani’s deal includes massive amounts of deferred money that make it lower than Guerrero’s pact in terms of net present value. Questions remain, however, about how Tucker’s own eventual deal will compare to those names. Notably, Tucker doesn’t have the sort of standout carrying tool that other top stars have. He’s not a threat to hit 60 homers like Judge, lacks Soto’s otherworldly strike zone recognition, and certainly isn’t the sort of once-in-a-century athlete Ohtani has proved himself to be.

With all that being said, however, Tucker gets to that elite tier of production by being well above average at just about everything. Among hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, Tucker’s barrel rate (11.7%) is top-30 in the majors, and his isolated slugging percentage is seventh best. He combined that excellent power with similarly excellent plate discipline; his 14.1% strikeout rate is the eleventh-lowest, while his 13.8% walk rate is fourth behind Judge, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. While Soto remains the only player to walk more often than he strikes out, the 0.3% difference between Tucker’s strikeout and walk rates is the smallest among the rest of the league.

Tucker’s talent in the batters’ box is further augmented by strong work in other areas of the game. He’s a well-regarded defender in right field who won the AL’s Gold Glove award at the position in 2019, and while he’s not shown an ability to play a premium position like center field, it seems unlikely that he’ll need to make a move down the defensive spectrum to DH or first base any time soon. He’s also proved to be a solid contributor on the bases. Despite middling foot speed, Tucker has managed to log 91 steals in 102 attempts since the start of the 2020 season. That’s good for a phenomenal 89.2% success rate, and includes 25- and 30-steal efforts during the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Tucker was well on his way to another 20+ steal season in 2024 before being sidelined by injury, and with three bags swiped in just 15 games this year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him steal more than his fair share of extra bases this season as well.

Given Tucker’s all-around impressive skill set, it’s not hard to see why teams will be clamoring to bring him into the fold this winter. There’s even a fairly strong argument to be made that Tucker is a more valuable player than Guerrero, given that their career numbers are relatively similar at the dish and Tucker is a far more valuable player in the field and on the basepaths. With that being said, Tucker’s age could hold him back somewhat relative to the deals landed by Soto and Guerrero. Soto hit free agency ahead of his age-26 season, while Guerrero is currently in the midst of his own age-26 campaign. Tucker, who turned 28 in January, is two years older than Guerrero and will be marketing himself three years older than Soto was this past offseason.

It’s possible that could keep him below that half-billion dollar threshold that only Guerrero and Soto have managed to reach by measure of net present value, but he could still be in for a massive payday. After all, Judge landed $360MM over nine years in free agency when marketing his age-31 season, while Ohtani was roughly the same age as Tucker when he landed his contract, which has a net present value of just under $461MM for luxury tax purposes. Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski reported on his Cubs Daily Podcast earlier this week that a person from Tucker’s agency, Excel Sports Management, suggested an estimate of $475MM over ten years for Tucker’s eventual contract. That figure obviously comes with caveats aplenty given that the source is Tucker’s own agency and he’s just 15 games into his platform season, but that number would top both Judge and Ohtani’s contracts in terms of NPV.

How do MLBTR readers believe Tucker’s contract situation will play out? Will he be able to crack the $500MM threshold that only Soto and Guerrero have crossed so far? Have your say in the poll below:

How Much Will Kyle Tucker Sign For By NPV?
More than $400MM, but lower than Ohtani's $461MM net present value. 43.02% (4,151 votes)
Less than $400MM 24.43% (2,357 votes)
$500MM or more 18.22% (1,758 votes)
Higher than Ohtani's $461MM net present value, but less than $500MM 14.33% (1,383 votes)
Total Votes: 9,649

Poll: Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?

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The Cubs have made a number of moves to push in towards a return to the postseason in 2025 after missing the playoffs in five of the last six seasons and not winning a playoff game since the club’s NLCS loss to the Dodgers back in 2017. After decent showings the past two seasons, both of which saw the club finish with 83 wins, the Cubs have gotten more aggressive in their efforts to improve. While the additions of Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea to the rotation mix, Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier to the bullpen, as well as Jon Berti and Carson Kelly to the bench are all more or less par-for-the-course moves for the Cubs in recent years, they made a major splash by swinging a trade with the Astros for Kyle Tucker.

The acquisition cost was steep, as they gave up top third base prospect Cam Smith as well as All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and young right-hander Hayden Wesneski, but the acquisition of Tucker was a major upgrade for the lineup relative to Cody Bellinger and figures to provide the Cubs with an impact star who can anchor their lineup. Tucker’s slated to become a free agent after the 2025 season, however, and while youngsters Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are waiting in the wings at Triple-A as potential replacements for Tucker in 2026 it would be an incredibly tall order to expect either youngster to become the sort of to player Tucker has fashioned himself into.

With the club having already given up substantial assets to just land one year of Tucker, the minds of many fans immediately go to an extension. It’s far from uncommon for star players traded just before their final year of team control to promptly extend their stay with that new club, with Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mookie Betts among the most notable star position players to work out long-term extensions shortly after being traded. With that being said, it doesn’t always work out that way as the Yankees found out when they gave up a massive haul for one year of Juan Soto’s services last winter only to watch him depart in free agency back in December.

Soto’s record-shattering $765MM deal won’t be an even remotely realistic target for Tucker, who will crucially head into free agency three years older than this offseason’s star free agent. Even so, that massive contract figures to raise the bar at least somewhat on the price tag for Tucker’s services. After all, both lefty-swinging right fielders are among the most valuable outfielders in the game over the past few years. Tucker’s 19.1 fWAR since the start of the 2021 season trails Soto’s 24.6 figure, but that’s with Tucker having missed half of the 2024 campaign due to a shin injury. Tucker lacks Soto’s generational plate discipline, but the former’s .280/.362/.527 slash line is in at least the same ballpark as Soto’s .279/.423/.520 slash line.

As previously mentioned, Soto’s youth and stronger overall offensive contributions mean his deal will greatly eclipse Tucker’s. Even so, it’s wholly reasonable to think that Tucker could exceed the $330MM guarantee Bryce Harper landed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season and even Aaron Judge’s $360MM guarantee from the 2022-23 offseason. With major market clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants all poised to have a hole in the outfield next winter, it’s not hard to imagine the bidding for Tucker’s services surpassing $350MM or even reaching $400MM so long as he’s healthy and as productive as expected this year. Signing a player to that sort of deal would be completely unprecedented for the Cubs, who have never signed a player for more than the $184MM deal they gave to Jason Heyward prior to the 2016 season, and it seems unlikely that a Tucker extension would come at much of a discount.

While doubling the franchise’s record contract would be a bold move, its one the Cubs should be able to afford. Despite playing in one of the league’s largest markets, Chicago has tended to treat the first luxury tax threshold as something of a hard cap in recent years. That first threshold will sit at $244MM in 2026, when RosterResource projects the club to have just $136MM in guaranteed contracts on the roster. That’s before likely raises for arbitration-eligible players like Justin Steele and a decision on Shota Imanaga’s deal that seems likely to raise the southpaw’s salary, but there should at least theoretically be plenty of room in the budget for a Tucker extension even after considering those factors should the Cubs wish to work one out.

There’s plenty of reasons to wonder if the Cubs would really have the appetite to sign Tucker to a massive contract, however. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, the Cubs appear to be acting quite cautiously when it comes to guaranteed contracts that extend beyond the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2026. At the moment, Imanaga and Dansby Swanson are the only two players the club has guaranteed money to beyond the 2026 campaign. Even that ignores the possibility that Imanaga is allowed to opt out of his deal after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, which will depend on whether or not the Cubs are willing to pick up a series of club options that would extend his stay with the club through the end of the 2028 campaign.

One other potential wrinkle in the situation is Chicago’s pursuit of Tucker’s longtime teammate Alex Bregman. The Cubs have emerged as one of Bregman’s suitors over the course of the past month, and while they’re generally viewed as only interested in adding Bregman on a shorter-term deal (as was the case with their pursuit of Bellinger last winter), it’s at least possible that the club signing Bregman to a deal that guarantees upwards of $30MM annually could leave them uninterested in adding another high-dollar contract like the one Tucker figures to command.

What do MLBTR readers think about the situation? Will the Cubs and Tucker work out an extension before he reaches free agency in November? Or will Tucker follow in the footsteps of Soto and hit the open market? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Cubs Extend Kyle Tucker?
No, Tucker will test free agency. 70.58% (6,260 votes)
Yes, they'll work out an extension. 29.42% (2,609 votes)
Total Votes: 8,869

Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts Discusses Offseason, Payroll, Front Office

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The Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker generated the biggest headlines in Wrigleyville this winter, with the team also adding such notables as Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Eli Morgan, Carson Kelly, and Caleb Thielbar to the roster.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer stated this week that the Cubs were still looking to add to the bench and bullpen, and recent reports suggest that the latter pursuit could even take the form of a big-ticket signing of Tanner Scott.

One of the over-arching questions about Chicago’s winter plans is exactly how much Hoyer had available to spend, and chairman Tom Ricketts addressed this point in an interview with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney.  Ricketts said that the team expects to spend around the $241MM luxury tax threshold, which therefore gives the Cubs quite a bit of extra capacity, as RosterResource estimates its current tax number at roughly $198.3MM.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cubs will be splashing around a lot of that cash in the coming weeks, however, as Ricketts said some money could be earmarked for upgrades at the trade deadline.  “We always have the ability to add payroll if we need to at the deadline.  And if there’s a piece we need to keep winning, there’s always that option,” Ricketts said.

The same wait-and-see mentality also impacts the remainder of the winter, as Ricketts noted that teams “don’t control the timing of when these guys sign.  And every offseason is different.  Nothing will happen for three weeks, and then one guy will sign.  And then three other guys want to sign in the next two days.  You just have to be flexible through the process, and keep an eye open at the end with some dry powder, in case there is someone that might be value-added that comes at a good price.”

A more expensive signing like Scott would take up a sizeable, yet not overwhelming, portion of Chicago’s budget space.  Rumors have persisted that the Cubs remain at least on the periphery of the Alex Bregman and Jack Flaherty markets, so despite Hoyer’s comments about the team’s focus on more lower-tier moves, Chicago can’t be entirely ruled out as a landing spot for either player until they sign elsewhere.  Bregman is reportedly not interested in a shorter-term deal with opt-outs while Flaherty is at least open to such an arrangement, so Flaherty could be a better fit as the type of “value-added” opportunity Ricketts describes (though any number of teams might also be interested in Flaherty in that same context).

The Cubs have taken a step back in their approach to payroll in recent years, as 2024 marked the first time since 2020 that Chicago’s Opening Day payroll landed within the league’s top ten spenders.  While the Cubs boosted payroll last year and into this offseason, some budget restraints are still clearly in place.  Most notably, the trade that sent Cody Bellinger to the Yankees was about unloading the majority of Bellinger’s remaining salary, in addition to clearing room for Tucker in Chicago’s outfield.

Fans have criticized Ricketts for this relative lack of spending from a big-market team, with some fingers pointed at the private investment firm Arctos for having an influence in this department.  Ricketts pushed back against this criticism in particular, noting that because Arctos has investments in multiple MLB teams, “they’re not allowed to participate in any baseball discussions, so they’re walled off from anything to do with payroll or player analysis….Ultimately, the private equity investors have very long-term horizons and are just looking to participate in the appreciation of sports assets in general.  They don’t need certain win totals or cash-flow numbers.  They’re just strong, silent partners.”

As always, the Competitive Balance Tax is calculated via average annual value plus additional player benefits, as opposed to just straight dollars — this is why the Cubs’ $227.7MM payroll in 2024 translated to a $239.9MM tax number, which put Chicago slightly over the $237MM tax threshold.  This means that the Cubs would have to give up two draft picks in order to sign a qualified free agent like Bregman, which is why non-qualified free agents like Scott or Flaherty could be preferable.

Not coincidentally, the Cubbies’ scaled-back spending through a semi-rebuild coincided with a dearth of postseason baseball.  After reaching the postseason in 2020, the Cubs had sub-.500 seasons in both 2021 and 2022 before posting identical 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons.  There has been plenty of frustration among Cubs fans over the last two years’ worth of near-misses, and it has led to speculation that Hoyer is facing extra pressure as he enters the last year of his contract as the team’s PBO.

Ricketts downplayed the idea of 2025 as a particularly important season, noting that “every year, the goal is the playoffs.”  While Ricketts didn’t give Hoyer an outright vote of confidence in terms of promised job security, the chairman did praise Hoyer’s big-picture approach to roster-building.

“You evaluate the front office on a couple levels.  Obviously, No. 1, is just the wins on the field,” Ricketts said.  “That’s the most obvious metric to check.  But it’s just overall organizational health.  One thing that’s been very encouraging over the past few years is that we have drafted better. And the guys that we have drafted have developed more quickly than some years past.  We put ourselves really behind the eight-ball a few years ago with a series of drafts that weren’t very productive.  And I think we’re on the other side of that now.  We’ve got a lot of players coming through, which will give Jed a lot of trade capital to go into the future.”

Evaluators and pundits have increasingly praised the state of the Cubs’ farm system, and this depth already manifested itself in the Tucker trade.  Isaac Paredes was included in the three-player trade package to the Astros because the Cubs have confidence that Matt Shaw is ready for regular third-base work, plus top prospect Cam Smith was also sent to Houston in the deal.

“Maybe in a few years, people will say we should have traded somebody else,” Ricketts said.  “But that’s what it is – there’s a balance to every trade.  In this case, I think Jed was right in assessing that we needed an impact bat this season.”

Ricketts also added that “hopefully, [Tucker will] enjoy his time here and he’ll be here a long time.”  Tucker is a free agent after the season, and while Ricketts naturally isn’t going to outright say that the Cubs view him as a just a one-year rental, his comment at least leaves open the possibility that the Cubs are willing to give Tucker the mega-deal that he’ll undoubtedly command if he keeps up his current form.  Jason Heyward’s $184MM contract remains the most expensive deal in Cubs history, and the club is very likely going to have to at least double that price to re-sign Tucker.

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