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Phillies To Meet With Top Four Free Agent Shortstops

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The Phillies have meetings scheduled with all four of the top free agent shortstops, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. They’ll sit down with the representatives for each of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts before the Winter Meetings kick off in earnest next Monday.

Philadelphia is widely seen as likely to land one member of that group, with reports suggesting they’re particularly dialed in on Turner. They’ve also been previously linked to Bogaerts, and it’s easy enough to see why they’d cover all bases in meeting with Correa and Swanson as well. The Phils have a need for middle infield help to pair with youngster Bryson Stott, and adding one of the top shortstops available is the most straightforward way to achieving that.

The expectation is that Correa and Turner will command the two largest contracts, with Boagerts and Swanson coming in behind them. Correa is the youngest of the group at age 28, while Turner has the most consistent offensive track record over the past couple seasons and is arguably the game’s top baserunner. Bogaerts is a similar caliber of hitter to Correa and Turner but has faced some questions about his ability to stick at shortstop into his mid-30’s. Swanson’s coming off a Gold Glove-winning season that he paired with arguably the best offensive showing of his career, but his general track record at the plate is behind the other three.

All four players are commanding ample interest and could top $150MM on the open market. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams that have been tied to at least one of the shortstops available. Turner, who’s reportedly the Phillies’ primary target, has been linked to a pair of the NL’s other top teams.

Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Padres were among the clubs with interest in Turner, and Rosenthal and Dennis Lin at the Athletic report tonight that San Diego has already met with Turner and his representatives twice this offseason. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also characterizes the club’s interest in Turner as legitimate. Acee suggests that San Diego actually signing one of the top shortstops remains a long shot, considering the Friars already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth as middle infield options. However, the Union-Tribune writes that San Diego could put Cronenworth on the trade market to alleviate the logjam if they surprisingly landed one of the top shortstops. The Friars have also been tied to Bogaerts at multiple points this offseason.

The Dodgers have been connected to both Turner and Bogaerts on various occasions. Juan Toribio of MLB.com wrote yesterday that L.A. and Turner have spoken in recent weeks. Toribio suggests the Dodgers could be reluctant to meet Turner’s asking price, but it seems likely the sides will remain in contact as the Winter Meetings approach.

Continuing with the theme, the Twins have a sit-down scheduled with Correa in the next few days, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Minnesota has maintained their interest in retaining Correa throughout the offseason, and they’ve reportedly floated him a number of long-term deals.

Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Market

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Next week’s Winter Meetings are expected to open the floodgates for some hot stove activity, and among the free agents drawing substantial interest leading up to those meetings is longtime Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. The 31-year-old (32 next month) has a “robust” market, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, and colleague Buster Olney tweets that there’s a growing belief he’ll be able to secure a three-year contract — perhaps in the vicinity of $15MM per year.

Haniger has, to this point in the offseason, been linked to each of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Rangers and the Mariners, who are open to adding another outfielder even after acquiring Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays last month. The Halos’ interest, it should be noted, was reported prior to their acquisition of Hunter Renfroe. It seems likely that move probably put an end to their pursuit of Haniger; the Angels also have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward locked into outfield spots and Shohei Ohtani at DH, of course.

Even presuming the Angels are out of the running, that’d leave at least five teams — and quite likely a few more — in the mix for Haniger, who missed substantial time this season due to a high ankle sprain but has generally been an above-average to excellent hitter when healthy enough to take the field. Dating back to 2017, Haniger boasts a .263/.337/.480 batting line — 24% better than league average by measure of wRC+, which weights for his pitcher-friendly home park. Haniger belted 39 home runs in a season as recently as 2021 and is one of the few outfielders on this offseason’s market who can be viewed as a viable 30-homer threat.

Of course, the knock on Haniger has been his ability to remain on the field — or rather, his lack thereof. Haniger’s 2019 season was cut short when he sustained a ruptured testicle after a poorly placed foul ball off his own bat. Just two months later, while rehabbing from the subsequent surgery, Haniger experienced back discomfort and learned that he’d torn an adductor muscle off the bone. The fallout from that second injury snowballed and ultimately saw Haniger require core muscle/hernia surgery and a microdiscectomy operation.

It was one of the more bizarre and also fluky sequences of injuries for any player in recent memory, but the end result was still a 22-month absence from the playing field for Haniger. He returned with that aforementioned 39-homer campaign, however, and has posted a combined .251/.316/.47o slash with 50 homers in 938 trips to the plate since coming back from that nightmarish run of health troubles. Haniger’s once-premium defensive ratings dipped in 2021, but he posted positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (2) in this year’s small sample of 396 innings.

Heading into the offseason, MLBTR ranked Haniger 20th on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a three-year contract at an annual rate of $13MM. Olney’s report suggests that Haniger’s market could be reaching if not pushing a bit beyond that level. If interest is indeed ramping up to that extent, it stands to reason that Haniger could be one of many free agents to come off the board during next week’s Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.

Dodgers Sign Shelby Miller To Major League Deal

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December 2: The Dodgers have officially announced the signing of Miller to a one-year, $1.5MM deal.

December 1: Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the incentives are worth $100K.

November 29: The Dodgers are in agreement with free agent reliever Shelby Miller on a major league contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, reportedly comes with a $1.5MM base salary and additional performance bonuses.

Miller will step right onto the 40-man roster despite not having had much recent MLB experience. He’s made just 17 appearances at the game’s highest level over the last three years. That includes four late-season appearances with the Giants in 2022. Selected onto the big league roster for the season’s final two weeks, he was called upon four times in San Francisco.

The right-hander allowed five runs in seven innings for the Giants, but he struck out 14 while walking just three. That came in spite of a lackluster 8.4% swinging strike rate, but Miller excelled at freezing batters on pitches inside the strike zone. Opponents offered at just over half the would-be strikes he threw, well shy of the 68.8% league average for relievers.

He’s almost certainly not going to maintain that pace over a full season, but he flashed some ability to keep MLB hitters off balance with a pared-down repertoire. Miller featured only two pitches — a low-80s slider and a four-seam that averaged a bit above 94 MPH — during this year’s MLB action. He also found a fair bit of success in the upper minors, striking out an excellent 32.4% of opponents en route to a 3.62 ERA across 32 1/3 frames with the Giants’ top affiliate in Sacramento.

That was enough to intrigue multiple teams. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported last week the 32-year-old had major league offers on the table from two clubs. The Giants weren’t one of them, at least at that time, preferring to give him a Spring Training invitation to compete for a roster spot. Miller won’t have to do so in L.A., as he’ll receive a guaranteed salary and presumably be penciled directly into the big league bullpen. As a player with more than five years of MLB service time, he’ll have to remain in the majors or be designated for assignment. The Dodgers wouldn’t have offered an MLB deal if they didn’t anticipate he’d make the Opening Day roster.

While Miller’s brief MLB work and Triple-A numbers from this past season make him an interesting depth flier, he’s far from a sure thing to cement himself in the middle innings mix for skipper Dave Roberts. Miller has appeared at the MLB level in 10 of the past 11 years — only missing the shortened 2020 campaign — but he’s not found sustained success since 2015. One of the sport’s better young starters during his early days with the Cardinals and Braves, Miller saw his career go off track after the infamous deal that sent him to Arizona and landed Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte in Atlanta.

After posting a 6.05 ERA in 20 starts during his debut season with the D-Backs, he lost most of the 2017-18 campaigns rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He was tattooed for an 8.59 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 44 frames for the Rangers in 2019, and it was a similar story during an abbreviated look with the Cubs and Pirates in 2021. All told, he owns a 7.02 ERA in 65 appearances with five teams since the end of the 2015 season. He’s worked almost exclusively in relief for two consecutive years.

Los Angeles relievers posted a 2.87 ERA this past season, the second-lowest mark in the majors. Their 26.7% strikeout rate placed fourth, with Evan Phillips and Yency Almonte breaking out alongside the more established Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol as late-inning arms. The Dodgers are also welcoming back Daniel Hudson from a season-ending ACL injury, giving them a decent number of high-upside relief options.

With the potential free agent departures of Craig Kimbrel, Tommy Kahnle and Chris Martin and the likelihood of a lost season for Blake Treinen, L.A. figures to continue trying to stockpile middle innings depth. Even factoring in Miller’s modest salary, Los Angeles has a bit under $153MM in estimated payroll commitments for next season. Finalizing their agreement with Clayton Kershaw is expected to tack on around $20MM to that mark, but there’s still plenty of room for bigger splashes at shortstop and in the starting rotation.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers and Miller were in agreement on a big league contract. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN was first to report it contained a $1.5MM base salary with performance bonuses.

Significant Gap Remains In Discussions Between Astros, Justin Verlander

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The Astros and Justin Verlander remain “far apart” in discussions about a new contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The nine-time All-Star is part of a trio of top free agent starters alongside Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.

The biggest stumbling block seems to be on the AL Cy Young winner’s desire for a third guaranteed season. Heyman writes that Verlander is seeking a deal around $130MM over three years — the same figure received by former teammate Max Scherzer from the Mets last winter. Houston owner Jim Crane similarly suggested Verlander was pointing to the Scherzer contract as precedent last month.

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported in November that Crane was reluctant to offer more than a two-year deal in the $60-70MM range. That’s shy of the Scherzer deal both by a year and a decent amount of annual salary ($30-35MM versus $43.333MM). It’s unclear if Houston has shown any willingness to raise their proposed salary figure in the few weeks since then, but Heyman reports they’re still opposed to a three-year guarantee.

Were Verlander to leave Houston, he’d draw no shortage of interest from the league’s big-market behemoths. He has already had meetings with the Dodgers and Mets, and Heyman has previously suggested the Yankees are also in the market.

Dodgers, Giants Interested In Kolten Wong

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The Dodgers and Giants are among the teams looking into the possibility of a trade for Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The Mariners are also known to have checked in as part of their search for a left-handed hitting second baseman.

Wong is one of the winter’s likelier trade candidates. Milwaukee has a loaded arbitration class that has led them to explore ways to alleviate a payroll crunch. The Brewers waived reliever Brent Suter, whom they apparently weren’t looking to tender a contract with a projected $3.1MM salary. Milwaukee tendered a contract to corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe, but they subsequently dealt him to the Angels for a trio of pitchers and knocked a projected $11.2MM salary off the books.

It appears they’re planning a similar strategy with Wong. The Brewers opened the offseason with a decision on the 32-year-old infielder, as his free agent deal contained a $10MM club option or a $2MM buyout. Milwaukee exercised the option, but Rosenthal writes the Brewers are expected to deal Wong at some point this offseason.

Wong is coming off an atypical season. A two-time Gold Glove winner, he’s been one of the sport’s top defensive second basemen throughout his career. His track record at the plate has been more mixed, but he paired arguably his best offensive season and his worst showing with the glove in 2022. Wong hit 15 home runs and put up a .251/.339/.430 line through 497 plate appearances, numbers that checked in 16 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. Statcast pegged him as the game’s worst defensive second baseman, though, estimating he was seven runs below average. Wong committed 17 errors, tying a career high, and he had the worst speed metrics of his career. At his age, Wong’s best days as a defender could be behind him, although it’s worth noting he also didn’t seem fully healthy. He lost a couple weeks in June to a right calf strain and acknowledged after the season he played through leg injuries (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

The Brewers aren’t going to move Wong solely for the purpose of salary relief. Had they been completely set on cutting costs, they could’ve declined his option (or placed him on waivers in hopes another team would claim him and get them off the hook for the buyout). Milwaukee didn’t do that, but as with Renfroe, they don’t seem motivated to retain Wong at his current salary. Rather, they’ve apparently made the determination he has trade value at that $10MM price point and are looking to capitalize on that while creating additional payroll flexibility.

If they do move Wong, the Brewers could hand second base over to former first-round pick Brice Turang. Wong himself suggested after the season that Turang’s presence could inspire Milwaukee to let him go, as the young hitter is coming off a strong season for Triple-A Nashville. Turang, a left-handed hitter, is coming off a .286/.360/.412 showing in 131 games for the Sounds. Prospect evaluators regard him highly as a defender, and he’s now on the 40-man roster after being added to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

The Dodgers and Giants each have plenty of spending capacity. Both clubs are sure to take swings at top-of-the-market free agents, but Wong represents a solid fallback as each seeks to build out their infield. Los Angeles has seen Trea Turner hit free agency, while they declined a team option on Justin Turner. They’re possible suitors for any of this winter’s top four free agent shortstops — Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa — but Rosenthal suggests they could pursue a top free agent and a Wong trade.

The thinking in that scenario would be to rely on Wong and an open market acquisition up the middle while turning third base over to Gavin Lux. Lux has only played six MLB innings at third base, spending the bulk of his time in the middle infield. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have loved his work at second base but been mixed on his shortstop defense. Statcast ranked Lux 155th out of 163 qualified infielders in arm strength this year, meaning he’d probably be stretched at the hot corner. Los Angeles also has a top third base prospect, Miguel Vargas, ready for a big league look after a .304/.404/.511 showing in Triple-A.

San Francisco already has a left-handed hitting second base option in Tommy La Stella. He’s under contract for $11.5M in the final season of a three-year free agent deal that hasn’t worked as hoped. La Stella owns a .245/.297/.380 line as a Giant, seemingly putting his path to everyday reps in jeopardy. The Giants could also explore the top of the shortstop market, perhaps with an eye towards kicking any acquisition over to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford. They’ve been prominently mentioned as the Yankees’ top rival on Aaron Judge, though, and landing a big-ticket shortstop would probably be off the radar if their pursuit of Judge proves fruitful.

While the Brewers have been open to talks on Renfroe and Wong, there’s no indication they’re planning a broad teardown of the roster. Listening to offers on quality role players with escalating price tags is par for the course for a Milwaukee franchise that consistently works to thread the needle of remaining competitive with mid-tier payrolls. Dealing someone like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff or Willy Adames would be a far more impactful subtraction from the MLB roster, and it doesn’t appear GM Matt Arnold and his front office are eager to make a move of that kind.

Rosenthal unsurprisingly writes the Brewers are finding ample interest on Burnes, Woodruff and Adames but suggests they may be likelier to hold onto those players into the season and reevaluate their place in the standings closer to the trade deadline. All three players have two seasons of arbitration control remaining, and while it seems likely at least one member of that group will eventually be dealt, there’s no pressing concern for the Brewers to do so this offseason.

Padres, Diamondbacks Among Teams Interested In Xander Bogaerts

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11:40am: The Athletic’s Peter Gammons cites front office officials from three other teams who are of the belief that Bogaerts will not return to Boston (Twitter link). As he did with regard to Bogaerts playing another position, however, Boras outwardly denied the report, telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that Bogaerts is “open to any and all voices in the free agent market” and adding that he and Bogaerts “have not closed any doors on anyone.”

10:04am: Next week’s Winter Meetings are generally expected to serve as a catalyst for what’s been a slow-moving free agent market. As the league’s biggest offseason convention approaches, the interest for some of the top players available is beginning to come into focus.

Xander Bogaerts is part of a loaded shortstop class, and a number of teams have checked in with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports the Diamondbacks and Cubs have expressed interest, while adding that previously-reported suitors like the Phillies and Dodgers are in the mix. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently checked in with Scott Boras about Bogaerts’ willingness to play a position other than shortstop. Boras, however, flatly rejected the possibility; the agent tells Rosenthal “Xander is playing shortstop” and denied that San Diego would prefer to move him off the position.

San Diego’s interest in Bogaerts isn’t a new development. Marino Pepén listed the Padres as a suitor last week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post has suggested they’re involved in the top of the shortstop market more generally. The Friars are seemingly serious enough in their pursuit to gauge Bogaerts’ amenability to move off the position.

The infield mix at Petco Park is already crowded, although there are a number of multi-positional options who can move around. Manny Machado is locked in at third base, while the rest of the current infield figures to be made up by some combination of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth. Kim has proven himself an excellent defensive shortstop and earned an everyday role with a .251/.325/.383 showing this past season. Tatis was expected to be the franchise shortstop after a brilliant start to his career earned him a $340MM extension, but he’s now under consideration for a move to second base or the outfield after missing all of 2022 due to injury and a performance-enhancing drug ban. Cronenworth is a quality defender at the keystone, but the Friars have floated the possibility of kicking him over to first base with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury hitting free agency.

Adding a first base/designated hitter type might be the most straightforward path to building out the offense, but there’s no harm for Preller and his staff in considering other avenues. Adding another middle infielder while kicking Cronenworth to first base would give San Diego an elite defensive infield, while Bogaerts is among the top offensive players available regardless of position. He’s long been mentioned as a candidate to move off shortstop towards the end of a free agent deal after years of subpar defensive marks, but he quieted those concerns (at least in the short term) with arguably the best season of his career with the glove. Bogaerts rated as four runs above average in more than 1200 shortstop innings by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast this past season. He hasn’t played anywhere else since 2014 and while there’s little question he could handle a less demanding position like second or third base, it doesn’t seem he’s willing to do so.

There are a number of other teams with worse internal options than the Padres that’d surely be willing to plug Bogaerts in at his longtime position. The Diamondbacks relied on rookie Geraldo Perdomo this year, and he looked overmatched to the tune of a .195/.285/.262 line in 500 plate appearances. Nick Ahmed is under contract and can play excellent defense, but he’s always been a below-average hitter and lost almost all of this past season to surgery on his throwing shoulder.

Arizona general manager Mike Hazen is plenty familiar with Bogaerts from his previous work in the Red Sox’s front office, so it’s little surprise they’re interested in adding him given the uncertain shortstop outlook. The question is whether a Diamondbacks team that has had a payroll south of $100MM in each of the past two seasons would be willing to commit a deal of that magnitude. MLBTR predicts a seven-year, $189MM contract for Bogaerts. The D-Backs already have roughly $98MM in salary commitments for next season, per Roster Resource, so adding a salary in the realm of $27MM annually would require owner Ken Kendrick signing off on a major spending hike relative to recent levels.

The Cubs have a cleaner long-term payroll outlook that makes them a viable fit for any of the top shortstops. Nico Hoerner is a quality incumbent, but he’s already expressed a willingness to move to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2023 commitments around $127MM, and they’ve opened each of the past two seasons with payrolls in the $140MM to $150MM range. Chicago has pushed spending north of $200MM in the past. There’s room for an aggressive offseason, but president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his front office have to weigh whether to invest in the middle infield against other weak points on the roster like center field, first base, catcher and the back of the rotation.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so any signing team will have to forfeit draft choice(s) and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. Boston has consistently maintained retaining him is their top priority, though extension talks dating back at least to Spring Training haven’t gotten anywhere. The Phils are widely expected to be in play for a top shortstop, but reports suggest they’re more dialed in on Trea Turner at the moment. The Dodgers could certainly turn to any of the other shortstops if Turner walks, while the Twins reportedly have Bogaerts as their top fallback if they can’t retain Carlos Correa.

Dodgers To Meet With Justin Verlander Today

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The Dodgers are reportedly meeting with free agent Justin Verlander today, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

The fit between Verlander and the Dodgers makes sense for a number of reasons. Despite being among the game’s biggest spenders, the Dodgers tend to prefer shorter-term contracts as opposed to lengthy commitments. The last time they gave a starting pitcher a guarantee longer than three years was to Brandon McCarthy going into 2015. Verlander turns 40 in February and will be limited in how many years he can reasonably ask for this offseason.

Verlander’s free agency has often been compared to that of Max Scherzer, another pitcher who has remained effective as an ace-level hurler into the age when many others begin to decline. Scherzer signed with the Mets a year ago for $130MM over three years, an average annual value of $43.33MM. MLBTR predicted Verlander to come in just under that, $120MM over three years, AAV of $40MM. Verlander is coming off an excellent platform season, winning the AL Cy Young after throwing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA. However, Scherzer was going into his age-37 season when his deal was signed and will turn 40 just as it winds down, though he can also opt out after the second year. In Verlander’s case, he’s going to be 40 when his next deal begins.

Regardless, Verlander showed in 2022 that he’s still one of the best pitchers in the game, which is something the Dodgers could use. Walker Buehler required Tommy John surgery in August and will miss most of 2023, perhaps even all of it. The club also lost Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson to free agency, with Anderson having already inked a new deal with the Angels.

The Dodgers have reportedly agreed to bring Clayton Kershaw back for another year, who will join Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in the front four spots of the rotation. That’s a solid group in terms of talent but there are still concerns. Kershaw is still excellent when healthy but regularly deals with injuries, having not reached 130 innings in a season since 2019. Gonsolin had an excellent breakout in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. May just returned from Tommy John but only made six starts this year. Despite debuting in 2019, he only has 25 career starts under his belt so far. Urías has been great in the past three seasons but he’s a free agent after 2023.

There are some intriguing in-house options for the fifth spot in the rotation, such as Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Andre Jackson, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone. However, the latter two haven’t cracked the 40-man roster yet and the others still have limited experience and minor league options. Adding another starter would improve the big league club while allowing those guys to head to the minors and battle each other for who gets the call when an injury creates an opening.

Verlander has been with the Astros since a deadline deal in 2017 and seemed a candidate to return on the heels of their World Series victory here in 2022. However, recent reporting has suggested that owner Jim Crane, who is temporarily running the show after parting ways with general manager James Click, isn’t interested in giving Verlander the three-year deal he’s looking for. Even without Verlander, Houston would have a really strong rotation mix consisting of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown. Since that reporting, Verlander has been connected to the Mets and the Yankees, with the Dodgers now entering the fray.

In terms of the money, the Dodgers have plenty of room relative to their recent spending. Roster Resource calculates their current payroll to be around $152MM with a competitive balance tax number of $168MM. Their Opening Day payroll was $280MM in 2022, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the first CBT threshold is moving up to $233MM in 2023. In both cases, the Dodgers have plenty of room to work with, even if they add around $40MM by bringing Verlander aboard. The club will have other needs to address, particularly replacing Trea Turner at shortstop. However, recent reporting has suggested the club might steer clear of the big free agents and let Gavin Lux or a trade acquisition take over at that position. If that is indeed the case, perhaps their biggest spending will go towards the rotation this winter, having also been connected to Carlos Rodón recently. Though they also appear to be hanging around the Aaron Judge sweepstakes.

Marlins To Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach

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The Marlins have hired Brant Brown as their new hitting coach, as per SportsGrid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).  Brown was one of the Dodgers’ two hitting coaches, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported earlier today that Miami was looking at Brown as the newest member of its staff.

Under new manager Skip Schumaker, the Marlins’ coaching staff will naturally look quite different in 2023.  Brown replaces Marcus Thames (who was hired by the Angels) in the hitting coach position, while Luis Urueta is the new bench coach, Jon Jay is the new first base coach, Jody Reed is the new third base coach, and Rod Barajas is joining the staff as a quality assurance coach.  Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. is staying put, after signing a new multi-year deal back in October.

This isn’t Brown’s first time in a Marlins uniform, as he played 41 games for the Fish back in 2000.  Brown played at the MLB level with the Marlins, Pirates, and (mostly) Cubs over five seasons, and then began his coaching career in 2007.  After a decade as a coach in the Rangers’ and Mariners’ farm system, Brown’s first MLB coaching assignment came prior to the 2018 season, when he joined the Dodgers as an assistant hitting coach.  While some of the specifics of Brown’s title have changed, he and Robert Van Scoyoc have shared the hitting coach duties since 2019.

A powerful and versatile lineup has been one of the keys to the Dodgers’ recent success, but the 51-year-old Brown will now face a new challenge in trying to jumpstart Miami’s lineup.  The Marlins have one of baseball’s more enviable cores of young pitching, yet the team has been unable to pair that pitching with even average offense.  The additions of Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, Jacob Stallings, and Joey Wendle last offseason didn’t help matters, and the Marlins are now hoping to have more of a focus on speed and contact hitting heading into 2023.

It remains to be seen how the Dodgers will replace Brown on the coaching staff, but Rosenthal cites assistant coach Aaron Bates as a logical candidate for a promotion, if L.A. sticks to the dual-hitting coach approach.  Bates has been the Dodgers’ assistant hitting coach for the last four seasons, and previously worked as a coach and coordinator from 2015-18 in the Dodgers’ minor league system.

Dodgers Have Interest In Xander Bogaerts, Alex Reyes

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The Dodgers have joined the growing list of suitors for four-time All-Star and two-time World Series Champion Xander Bogaerts, according to reporter Marino Pepén. Pepén adds that the Cubs and Twins have also joined Bogaerts’ market, adding to a list that also houses the Phillies, Red Sox, and Padres.

With the departure of Trea Turner, the Dodgers are among the teams looking to secure a shortstop this winter, having recently been connected to the Brewers’ Willy Adames. MLBTR predicted that Bogaerts will receive a seven-year, $189MM deal this offseason.

The 30-year-old hit a strong .307/.377/.456 in 2022, witnessing a noticeable drop in power compared to 2021 (23 HRs, .493 slugging in 2021; 15 HRS, .456 slugging in 2022). Nevertheless, Bogaerts posted his fifth-straight season with a wRC+ over 125 and kept his strikeout rate below 19% for the eighth season in a row. Additionally, the nine-year vet posted his strongest defensive season of his career by measure of every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average). Bogaerts’ glove had been discussed as his primary flaw, having been rated as a below-average defender and a candidate for an eventual position change. His strong defensive 2022 season will likely aid his ability to remain at the premium shortstop position, positioning him for a contract near $200MM.

From a financial standpoint, Bogaerts, along with Dansby Swanson, represent cheaper alternatives to Carlos Correa and Turner (both projected to sign contracts worth more than $250MM by MLBTR). Nevertheless, with the recent non-tendering of Cody Bellinger and the decision to decline Justin Turner’s 2023 club option, the Dodgers currently have only $152MM committed to their 2023 payroll, per RosterResource (after finishing the 2022 season with more than $260MM on their books). A Dodgers/Bogaerts deal would push the team up to $179MM — leaving ample room for another potential blockbuster signing.

The Dodgers have also been linked to free agent reliever Alex Reyes, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the two-time All-Star to receive $2.85MM in his penultimate trip through the arbitration process, but the Cardinals opted to non-tender the flamethrower.

Reyes, who was once ranked as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, has dealt with ailments his entire career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, tore a tendon in his lat in 2018, and underwent shoulder surgery in 2020. After a healthy 2021 season where Reyes earned All-Star honors while pitching to a 3.24 ERA in 72 1/3 innings with a robust 30.0% strikeout rate, albeit with an extremely high 16.4% walk rate, injuries returned. Reyes would be forced to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery in May, wiping out his entire 2022 season.

Despite Reyes having an unclear timetable to return, the Dodgers have earned a reputation for signing injured relievers to multi-year contracts, with the expectation that the player will perform in the later years of the deal. Additionally, Dodgers’ pitching coach Mark Prior has been highly regarded in recent years for his work, with Los Angeles’ bullpen pitching to the second-lowest ERA (2.87), fourth-highest strikeout percentage (26.7%), and second-lowest walk percentage (7.5%) in the entire league.

Dodgers “Have Shown Interest” In Willy Adames

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The Dodgers “have shown interest” in Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio reports.  The depth of the interest isn’t known, though it does reflect how Los Angeles is keeping tabs on the shortstop market beyond incumbent free agent Trea Turner.

Of course, there also isn’t any guarantee that the Brewers are even open to trading Adames, given how the club has had at least some interest in retaining the slugger on a long-term extension.  However, such an extension would be quite costly for the Brew Crew, and for a lower-payroll team, trading Adames for a bounty of younger players might be a more efficient way for Milwaukee to reload its roster.  The Dodgers have one of the sport’s better farm system, and could offer the Brewers some prospects who could contribute at the MLB level as early as 2023.

Adames has two years of arbitration control remaining, and he is projected to earn $9.2MM in 2023.  Another good season would push his 2024 price tag up into the $13MM range, unless an extension was worked out to overwrite what Adames might earn in his final arb-eligible year.  Since Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are also going to be free agents after the 2024 campaign, it seems likely that the Brewers will be moving at least one of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames before they hit the open market, barring a huge change to their spending approach.

In fact, the Brewers have already increased spending in recent years, as their Opening Day payroll of just under $132MM was the largest in club history.  However, with Christian Yelich’s salary taking up a big chunk of that payroll, the Brewers have largely stuck to their usual tactic of moving on from certain players once their arbitration numbers get too high.  For recent examples, Milwaukee just traded Hunter Renfroe to the Angels earlier this week, and Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres just prior to the August trade deadline.

As former president of baseball operations David Stearns noted in a statement announcing the Hader deal, “this mix of present Major League talent and high-level prospects furthers our aim to get as many bites of the apple as possible and, ultimately, to bring a World Series to Milwaukee….We also recognize that to give our organization the best chance for sustained competitiveness, to avoid the extended down periods that so many organizations experience, we must make decisions that are not easy.”

Moving Adames could be a similarly tough decision for the Brewers and GM Matt Arnold, who is now the top decision-maker in Milwaukee’s front office.  On the one hand, the Brew Crew are surely hopeful of returning to contention in 2023, and having Adames in the lineup (as well as Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation) would give the team a clearer “bite of the apple,” so to speak.  On the flip side, it could be argued that Adames might be just about at the peak of his trade value this offseason, and given how the Hader deal left several Brewers players openly disappointed at the club’s direction, the front office might want to avoid another midseason trade of a key player if the Brewers are anywhere close to contention.

Though the Dodgers will keep talking to Turner’s camp, Toribio feels that “the more realistic option…is that the Dodgers don’t sign any of the top four free-agent shortstops,” referring to Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson.  This would either put Gavin Lux in line for the everyday shortstop job in 2023, or L.A. could address the shortstop position via trade, whether for Adames or another player.

Since Adames is only controlled through 2024, he might not necessarily be a longer-term answer either in Los Angeles, though he should still have some prime years remaining since he only turned 27 in September.  The Dodgers could conceivably look into extending Adames themselves, or perhaps instead use him as something of a high-level placeholder.  That would give L.A. time to decide on Lux’s ideal role, or more time to evaluate whether or not shortstop prospects Jacob Amaya or Eddys Leonard can be MLB-caliber players.

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