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2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest

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DECEMBER 7: The Angels, Nationals and Dodgers are also in the market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

DECEMBER 6, 8:01pm: The Red Sox are also expressing interest in Lugo, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).

DECEMBER 6, 6:39pm: Right-hander Seth Lugo has been drawing interest as a starting pitcher and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that working as a starter is Lugo’s preference as well, with the Padres one of several teams interested in him.

It’s been a while since Lugo has been tried out in a rotation role for more than a brief stretch. His career high for starts in a big league season is 18, which came back in 2017. Since that time, he’s been primarily working out of the bullpen, serving as an effective reliever for the Mets.

In 278 career games, only 38 of them have been starts, but Lugo has a career 3.48 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s fared much better out of the ’pen, as his ERA is 2.91 there while 4.35 as a starter, with more strikeouts as a reliever to match.

Despite that split, as mentioned, it’s been quite some time since Lugo’s been given an extended stretch in the rotation. That means most of those stats came from Lugo’s first two years in the big leagues, when he made 26 of those 38 career starts. It’s possible he’s capable of producing better results now that he has more experience. He also has a larger pitch mix than the average reliever, something that could help him move through a lineup a few times. Last year, he had four pitches that he threw at least 13.7% of the time, with his curveball leading the way at 33.5%, followed by his four-seamer at 29.3%, his sinker at 21.9% and his slider at 13.7%. He also has a changeup that he mixed in 1.6% of the time, though it’s been 7.1% for his career.

For the Padres, they lost a couple members of their rotation to free agency in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea, while also trading MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals. Nick Martinez opted out of his contract but was quickly re-signed and seems to have a chance of retaking a rotation spot himself, after getting bumped to the bullpen. They currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the front three spots. It would be surprising to see them go into the season with the last two spots in their rotation dedicated to unproven options like Martinez and Lugo, especially when they just reportedly offered Trea Turner $342MM. But it’s possible they could also add a fourth starter and have those Martinez and Lugo battle for the fifth spot with one of them going to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. Though Lugo reportedly prefers to start, it’s unknown how he would value a non-guaranteed starting role on a contender like the Padres against a clearer path to starting on a less-competitive team.

San Diego’s payroll limits are an ongoing question. As mentioned, they just made a massive offer to Turner, but some reporting indicates they were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily dedicate those resources to other players. As of right now, Roster Resource calculates their competitive balance tax figure at $230MM, just barely under the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. With the club still seeking to upgrade in the rotation and elsewhere, going over the line seems inevitable. Lugo isn’t likely to break the bank as a back-end rotation candidate but every dollar over the line will count. Since the Padres are set to be a third-time payor, they will be subject to a 50% tax on all spending over the line and even higher penalties if they go over by $20MM or more.

Coaching Notes: Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Marlins

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The Angels are hiring Bill Haselman to be their new third base coach, per general manager Perry Minasian (relayed by Sam Blum of The Athletic). Haselman appeared for the Rangers, Red Sox, Mariners and Tigers during a 13 year big league career. In 589 games, the catcher put together a .259/.311/.409 line with 47 total home runs. After retiring in 2003, Haselman went straight into coaching, working for the Red Sox as a first base coach and then bullpen coach. He took a break from baseball coaching but returned in 2010, taking a managerial job at one of the Texas Rangers’ minor league affiliates.

He continued working with minor league affiliates of the Angels and Dodgers over the next few years, making it up to Triple-A where he took charge of Oklahoma City between 2016-18. He joined the Angels major league staff at the beginning of the year, succeeding Jose Molina as catching coach. Now he’ll take over third base coach duties on Phil Nevin’s staff.

Here’s some other coaching news from around the big leagues:

  • The Dodgers are promoting Aaron Bates to hitting coach, where he’ll work alongside Robert Van Scoyoc, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed (h/t Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). Bates had a brief stint in the majors in 2009, getting four hits in five games for the Red Sox. He bounced around the minor leagues plenty, but retired after the 2014 season with the Dodgers. While he played just 11 games that year, it was an entrance into the Dodgers organization that Bates hasn’t left. He held a series of jobs at their minor league affiliates before joining the big league team as assistant hitting coach in 2019. His promotion comes on the back of the departure of Brant Brown, who’s joined the Marlins.
  • The Mets have extended Glenn Sherlock’s contract through until 2024 as part of his shift from bench coach to catching instructor, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Sherlock played seven years in the minor leagues back in the 1980s, making it as high as Triple-A. He’s held coaching positions with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Pirates. Sherlock initially joined the Mets in 2017, serving as their third base coach and catching instructor before departing for Pittsburgh in 2020. He returned at the start of this year as bench coach, but will make way for Eric Chavez in that position.
  • New Marlins manager Skip Schumaker is bringing in former Cardinals hitting coach John Mabry into his team as assistant hitting coach, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Mabry spent eight years with the Cardinals as part of a 14 year big league career (that also included a stop at the Marlins) that ended in 2007. Mabry worked with the Cardinals between 2012-18 as a hitting coach, but left when then-manager Mike Matheny was fired. He’s since been working for the Royals. Schumaker and Mabry played together on the 2005 Cardinals team.

David Price Won’t Pitch In 2023

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Veteran left-hander David Price won’t pitch in 2023, his agent Bo McKinnis told Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Price is a free agent after spending the last season with the Dodgers. A report came out during the season that Price was planning to retire at the conclusion of the 2022 campaign, but the player denied that report. Heyman notes that his agent isn’t using the retirement word here either.

Price, now 37, was drafted first overall by the Rays back in the 2007 draft, quickly making his way through the minors and pitching a handful of innings in 2008. Price would establish himself in the Rays’ rotation the following year, and spent the next five-and-a-half seasons dominating American League lineups with Tampa Bay. He’d wind up throwing 1,143 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball, winning a Cy Young award in 2012, making four All Star appearances and helping the Rays make the playoffs between 2010-12.

As is often the case with smaller market teams, trade speculation swirled as the Rays record dipped below .500 and Price’s club control ran down. The Tigers swooped, landing Price in a 2014 deadline that landed the Rays Willy Adames and Drew Smyly among others. Despite joining a Tigers rotation that featured Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the team was swept in the ALDS by Baltimore that year.

The Tigers still controlled Price for one more year in 2015, and he started the year out in their rotation. Yet despite pitching to a 2.53 ERA in 21 starts, the Tigers fell out of contention and with his free agency pending, they flipped him to the Blue Jays for Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris and Jairo Labourt. Price continued his excellent ways in Toronto, tossing 11 starts of 2.30 ERA ball and helping the Blue Jays through a memorable post-season that finished with defeat to the Royals in the ALCS. All told, it was an outstanding free agency platform year of 220 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball and a runner up finish in AL Cy Young voting.

That winter, Price landed a monster seven-year, $217MM deal with the Red Sox. While he did throw an impressive 230 innings in his first season in Boston, the 3.99 ERA was well shy of his dominant best. After throwing 185+ innings in seven-straight seasons, injuries plagued much of the remainder of Price’s Boston career, and he’d make just eleven starts in 2017. He’d back that up with 30 starts in 2018, pitching to a 3.58 ERA as the Red Sox won the World Series, with Price throwing 13 2/3 innings of 1.98 ERA ball in the Fall Classic. Unfortunately, he’d again find himself battling injuries in 2019 as he tossed 107 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball.

That’d wind up being Price’s last year in Boston, as new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom packaged up Price and superstar Mookie Betts and sent them to the Dodgers for Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. That trade took place not long before the pandemic forced the shut down, and eventually shortening of the 2020 season. Price would opt out of that season, instead returning in 2021 as a bullpen option for LA. He was reasonably effective in that role, pitching to a 4.03 ERA in 73 2/3 innings, but he did post a career-low strikeout rate of 17.8% and saw his velocity drop.

He rebounded in 2022, remaining in a relief role and pitching 40 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball, posting vastly improved strikeout and walk rates, both of which had been trending in the wrong direction a year earlier. While it’s not necessarily the end of the road for Price, he currently boasts an impressive career record of 157-82 over 2,143 2/3 innings (322 games started out of 400 appearances) with 2,076 career strikeouts. He’s also a five-time All Star, has one World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2018 and an AL Cy Young award (as well as two runner up finishes).

Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market

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Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.

Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.

Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.

With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.

It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.

Andrew Heaney Has Three-Year Offers, Wants Fourth Year

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1:16PM: The Giants and Rangers are also involved in Heaney’s market, Heyman tweets.

12:23AM: Free agent starter Andrew Heaney has multiple three-year offers on the table, but is looking for a contract that adds a fourth year, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The only known team to have made an offer thus far is a previously reported offer from the Blue Jays, per SportsNet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, although it’s not known if that was a three-year deal.

Heaney has been drawing widespread interest in free agency with as many as ten teams showing interest, including the incumbent Dodgers (via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic), aforementioned Blue Jays, as well as the Mets, Red Sox and others.

Although shoulder issues limited the left hander’s participation in the Dodgers’ season, he was very impressive when he did make it onto the mound, tossing 75 innings of 3.10 ERA ball. A new slider allowed him to punch out batters at a staggering 35.5% rate while walking them just 6.1% of the time. The long ball was still an issue, but there’s plenty there to suggest Heaney can be an incredibly effective starting pitcher moving forward, and clearly a number of major league teams think the same.

MLBTR predicted a three-year, $42MM deal for Heaney, and it’s probably not surprising that it appears teams are a bit hesitant to stretch to a fourth year. As mentioned, he missed three months this season with shoulder problems, while he’s also undergone Tommy John surgery in 2016 and landed on the IL twice in 2018 and ’19 with elbow inflammation.

There’s certainly some question marks over Heaney’s durability, as well as how his newfound success during ’22 with the Dodgers would translate to a new team, but a full season’s worth of Heaney’s output this year would give a new team a dominant, top-of-the-rotation arm, so there’s enormous upside there for teams as well.

Dodgers, Rays Interested In Andrew McCutchen

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The Dodgers and Rays are among the teams with interest in free agent outfielder/designated hitter Andrew McCutchen, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. As Olney points out, McCutchen could very well topple a couple of career milestones in 2023, as he’s 52 hits shy of 2000 and 13 long balls away from the 300 mark.

McCutchen, 36, spent the 2022 season with the Brewers, for whom he slashed at a .237/.316/.384 pace through 580 trips to the plate. It was an uneven season for the 2013 NL MVP, as he stumbled out of the gates with a poor two-month stretch before catching fire in June and ultimately wilting again in the season’s final seven to eight weeks.

McCutchen’s run early in the summer at least showed that there’s still life in his bat — inconsistent as the production may be. The endpoints here are arbitrary, and any player can look better when focusing only on his hottest stretch of the season, but for a period of 262 plate appearances beginning on June 5, McCutchen mashed at a .288/.370/.498 pace, slugging 11 homers and 15 doubles along the way. Of course, it’s only fair to also point out that said hot streak was preceded by an absolutely frigid spell in which he collected just one hit in a span of 39 trips to the plate.

The peaks and valleys of McCutchen’s 2022 season resulted in a 98 wRC+ and 99 OPS+, suggesting that he was just barely shy of average at the plate for the season as a whole. Part of the downturn in production for McCutchen, who batted a combined .237/.343/.444 as a Phillie from 2019-21 (109 wRC+), was that his longstanding production against southpaws evaporated in 2022. McCutchen is career .300 hitter with a .936 OPS and 154 wRC+ against lefties, even including last year’s struggles, but this past season’s .221/.303/.434 slash when holding the platoon advantage was miles shy of his career standard.

On the defensive side of the coin, McCutchen played just 434 innings in the outfield, most coming in left — although the Brewers gave him 13 innings in center and 153 in right. Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (1.8) and Outs Above Average (0) all thought he was at least serviceable, if not a net positive in his limited work with the glove. However, McCutchen spent 82 games as Milwaukee’s designated hitter, too. It’s possible another team would view him as a viable option to log a larger workload in the outfield, but a return to his days of pllaying 1300-1400 innings in the outfield seems like a reach, given his age and recent usage.

In Los Angeles, McCutchen could give the Dodgers a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging 25-year-old James Outman, who had a huge season in the upper minors and also impressed in a tiny MLB debut (16 plate appearances). Tampa Bay is more set in the outfield but could still use McCutchen as a right-handed option off the bench, mixing him in for occasional work in the outfield corners and at designated hitter. It’s worth noting that McCutchen is a native of Fort Meade, Fla. and attended Fort Meade High School — about 75 miles from the Rays’ Tropicana Field.

McCutchen played the 2022 season on a one-year, $8.5MM contract, and it seems quite likely that he’ll be ticketed for another one-year deal wherever he lands — be it with the Dodgers, Rays or another team.

Marlins Interested In Justin Turner

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The Marlins have checked into Justin Turner’s market, The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  Turner entered free agency after the Dodgers declined their $16MM club option on the veteran infielder.

Turner has spent the last nine seasons in Los Angeles, becoming a fan favorite and a key figure in the Dodgers’ success.  Despite being something of an afterthought early in his career with the Orioles and Mets, Turner blossomed once coming to L.A., hitting .296/.375/.490 with 156 homers over his 4220 plate appearances in a Dodger uniform.  The highlights included two All-Star appearances, NLCS MVP honors in 2017, and the Dodgers’ World Series championship in 2020.

Though 2022 was Turner’s age-37 season, he still provided a very solid 123 wRC+ by hitting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers in 532 PA.  Given how Turner struggled badly in the first three months before catching fire later, it is quite possible that the lockout and the abbreviated Spring Training threw off Turner’s usual routine, leaving him in need of some time to get fully ramped up.  This bodes well for his chances of continuing to hit even as he gets deeper into his late 30’s.

The Dodgers’ decision to decline Turner’s option may have been simply more about flexibility than a reflection of the team’s feelings about Turner’s production going forward, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has said that the team wants to bring Turner back for the 2023 campaign.  Turner has re-signed with the Dodgers in past trips to free agency, and yet if he is looking for a new chapter, the Marlins are one of many teams that should have interest in a reliable veteran bat who might not be overly expensive.

MLBTR projected Turner for a one-year, $14MM contract, which should work even with the Marlins’ rather modest budget.  Turner’s veteran leadership would also boost a young Miami clubhouse, and he would be reunited with former Dodger co-hitting coach Brant Brown, who was recently hired as the Marlins’ hitting coach.

On the field, Turner’s production would upgrade a lineup that has been among the league’s worst for two seasons running.  Brian Anderson was non-tendered, leaving third base wide open for Turner — utilityman Joey Wendle can play all over the diamond, perhaps only getting some third base time when Turner is getting a DH day, or perhaps playing first base.  With the Marlins focusing on improving their contact hitting, Turner would be an excellent fit given his career-long ability to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts.

Dodgers Officially Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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The Dodgers announced today that they have re-signed Clayton Kershaw to a one-year deal worth $20MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that it will take the form of a $15MM salary and $5MM signing bonus. It’s been almost a month since it was reported that Kershaw was nearing a return to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. For some reason, it took a long time for the paperwork to be taken care of, but the club has now made it official today. Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Kershaw, 35 in March, was drafted by the Dodgers and has spent his entire career with the club. He made his debut back in 2008 when he was just 20 years old. Though he posted a 4.26 ERA at that young age, he took a step forward the next season and has been one of the best pitchers in the world ever since. To this point in his career, he has 2,581 innings under his belt with a 2.48 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate.

Kershaw is about a decade removed from his peak, when he won three Cy Young awards in four years, grabbing the trophy in 2011, 2013 and 2014. In the five-year stretch from 2011 to 2015, he topped 225 innings four times while never posting an ERA higher than 2.53.

Since that time, injuries have put a damper on the quantity of Kershaw’s work but the quality has remained quite strong. He hasn’t topped 180 innings since 2015 and has been kept under 127 since 2019. But he still generally keeps runs off the board when he’s on the mound. In 2022, he made a couple of trips to the IL but still made 22 starts and posted a 2.28 ERA over 126 1/3 innings, with rate stats roughly in line with his career marks.

Kershaw has signed a couple of extensions with the Dodgers over his time there, with the most recent one going through 2021. A free agent one year ago, it was speculated that Kershaw would be deciding between returning to the Dodgers, signing with the Rangers to be near his Dallas-area home, or retirement. Shortly after the lockout ended, Kershaw returned to Los Angeles on a one-year deal for $17MM plus incentives. This year, it was expected that Kershaw would be deciding between the same three paths. However, he didn’t wait around until the spring this time, with reports emerging shortly after the World Series that he would be coming back to the Dodgers yet again.

Kershaw was one of three starters that the Dodgers saw reach free agency at the end of the 2022 season, with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney also hitting the open market. Walker Buehler is likely to miss the entire campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. With Kershaw back in the fold, he’ll join Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in the rotation. They have some internal candidates for the fifth spot, such as Ryan Pepiot or Michael Grove, but it’s likely they will keep their eye on further additions, especially with some injury question marks hovering around this group. As mentioned, Kershaw hasn’t reached 127 innings since 2019 and May only made six appearances in 2022 after returning from his own Tommy John surgery.

Adding Kershaw’s $20MM to the books bring the club’s payroll for 2023 to $173MM, per Roster Resource. The club has gone well beyond that in recent years but some reporting has suggested they may consider sneaking under the luxury tax in order to reset their status in that department. The competitive balance tax features escalating penalties for teams that go over in consecutive seasons and the Dodgers could potentially stay under the line in 2023 and then go into 2024 as “first-time” payors. The lowest CBT line in the coming season will be $233MM, with Roster Resource calculating the Dodgers to now be at $189MM. That gives them over $40MM of wiggle room, though they will have a number of areas on the roster to address. In addition to the aforementioned rotation situation, they declined a club option on third baseman Justin Turner, non-tendered center fielder Cody Bellinger and also lost shortstop Trea Turner to free agency along with many relievers and role players.

The Dodgers won 111 games in 2022, the highest such total in the lengthy history of the franchise. That led to their ninth National League West division title in the past ten years. However, they could be looking to shake things up after they were dispatched by the Padres in the NLDS. They have a large number of free agents but also a number of prospects at or near the MLB level who could be ready to make the jump. If they do indeed decide to curtail spending this winter, they will have some interesting choices to make in terms of where their devote their resources in the rest of the winter.

Aaron Judge “Increasingly Likely” To Land A Nine-Year Contract

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It seems as though teams interested in signing Aaron Judge will have to commit to the slugger for the rest of his 30’s, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that “it appears increasingly likely” that Judge will land nine guaranteed years in his next contract.

It isn’t known if Judge is necessarily prioritizing contract length or a record-setting average annual value, but the reigning MVP might very well have the leverage for both.  Mike Trout’s current deal with the Angels is the benchmark ($36MM) in terms of average annual value for position players, so if Judge was looking to top Trout’s record, it would take nine years and more than $324MM.

That isn’t far off MLBTR’s projection of an eight-year, $332MM deal for Judge, which works out to a $41.5MM AAV.  If Judge is only looking to top Trout’s average salary whatsoever (rather than by a $5.5MM amount), technically a $332MM deal over nine years would do it.  But, it could be that Judge wants to move the goalposts significantly forward for future star free agents.

Going into a ninth guaranteed season (which would be Judge’s age-39 year) might not have much appeal to teams if they’re not getting much or any break on the AAV.  That said, Judge is perhaps a unique enough case that any of his big-market suitors might not mind the extra year — if a team is already willing to pay Judge in the $36MM range for his age-38 season, the ninth year might be seen as the cost of doing business.

If a ninth guaranteed season is now the going rate to sign Judge, it could put the Dodgers out of the running. “The Dodgers are believed to want Judge only on a short-term, high-dollar deal,” Rosenthal writes, which matches the club’s general strategy in pursuing any free agents.  This isn’t to say that L.A. doesn’t abandon that strategy in certain circumstances, as it was just last winter that Freddie Freeman (heading into his age-32 season) was inked a six-year, $162MM deal.  But, with Judge in position to at least double Freeman’s total salary, he might not be a fit for a Dodger team that could devote its resources towards acquiring other star players.

The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are the teams publicly linked to Judge’s market, and Rosenthal reports that some other teams have at least checked in on Judge, though it isn’t known if any of these mystery suitors are making a serious push.  Last week, reports suggested that New York had made Judge an offer in the range of eight years and $300MM, and the Yankees weren’t viewing that as a final offer.  Adding a ninth guaranteed season at the same AAV would result in a nine-year, $337.5MM offer.

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