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Greinke Likely To Decide Between Giants, Dodgers This Week

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DEC. 2: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that while Greinke’s preference is a six-year deal at an AAV north of Price, he’s also open to a five-year pact at a considerably higher AAV than he’d receive on a six-year contract.

DEC. 111:15pm: Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that a source close to the situation says Greinke will decide within the next 48 hours. Bowden adds that he expects Greinke to land a six-year deal worth $32MM annually, which would mean a $192MM total investment.

5:08pm: News of David Price’s deal with the Red Sox is still fresh in the air, but another major decision may be relatively close, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Zack Greinke could decide on his next contract “soon,” labeling it a matter of Dodgers vs. Giants, with a five- to six-year deal being the expectation. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds (Twitter link) that a Greinke decision is expected this week, noting that he, too, hears the Dodgers and Giants stand alone as the finalists. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Greinke is seeking an AAV that exceeds Price, so he could come in at $31.5MM to $32MM annually.

Greinke, like Price, finished runner-up in his league’s Cy Young voting this season despite the best single-season ERA mark by a qualified pitcher since Greg Maddux in 1995. He’s spent the past three seasons in L.A., working to a combined 2.30 ERA across 602 2/3 innings. Recently, Crasnick reported that the market for Greinke was “quietly heating up,” listing San Francisco and Los Angeles as the primary teams that were said to be seeking clarity in their pursuit of Greinke.

The fact that two division rivals are the top suitors for Greinke must be music to the ears of both the pitchers and his representatives at Excel Sports Management. However many wins either teams feels that Greinke can add to their future totals, the view could be made that failing to sign him will instead add those wins to the closest rival’s total, possibly increasing each team’s willingness to spend.

Both clubs are known to be seriously interested in Greinke, but Dodgers ownership partner Magic Johnson told Yahoo’s Tim Brown today that Greinke was the team’s “No. 1 priority” this offseason (Twitter link).

Free Agent Notes: Fowler, Zobrist, Leake, Venable, Relievers

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The Mets have some level of interest in Dexter Fowler as a center field option, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). However, Ben Zobrist remains the team’s top priority in free agency. Recent reports have indicated that the Mets won’t go to four years on Zobrist, and that will probably need to change in order to sign him, as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan said last night the price tag is currently believed to be around $60MM over four years. Should the Mets lose out on Zobrist, they could look to upgrade in center field, where Juan Lagares had a down season in 2015 — the first of a four-year contract extension. Lagares’ contract is affordable enough that he could be moved to a reserve role without it being an overpay.

A few more notes from around the free-agent market…

  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick delivers a slew of news pertaining to Zobrist (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Per Crasnick, the Nationals, Giants and Dodgers are all in the mix for Zobrist as well. The Cubs and Cardinals like Zobrist but don’t have as many at-bats to offer as the other clubs. The Royals are probably priced out on Zobrist, and while the Angels inquired earlier this offseason, there’s been no recent discussion between the two sides. Additionally, Zobrist’s preference is to play for a contender, making the Braves a tough fit even though they do have some level of interest. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press hears (Twitter link) that about 11 clubs are in the mix for Zobrist, to some extent, but the Twins aren’t among them (which is no surprise given their glut of outfielders and Brian Dozier’s presence at second base).
  • Crasnick hears the same that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has recently suggested — that having fallen short on David Price, the Cardinals could turn their attention to Mike Leake on the free agent market. Leake won’t cost near the same amount that the Cardinals were willing to go on Price, but he’d be a strong option to replace the injured Lance Lynn in their rotation in 2016 and would provide value for another four years or so beyond that point.
  • Also from Crasnick, both the Indians and Orioles have expressed interest in free-agent outfielder Will Venable. While the 32-year-old Venable is coming off a down season split between San Diego and Texas, he has historically been a productive bat for the Friars and has posted solid numbers away from the spacious Petco Park over the life of his career. Venable is also capable of playing all three outfield positions.
  • A pair of notes on relievers: Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald hears that the Red Sox are no longer in the market for right-hander Joakim Soria (Twitter link). Having spent an enormous amount in terms of dollars and prospects to acquire Price and Craig Kimbrel, it’s perhaps logical that the Sox wouldn’t spend so heavily. Additionally, Crasnick spoke to an agent who said that the Blue Jays are looking for an impact (Twitter link), power arm for their bullpen but are trying to land such a piece for “dollar store prices,” suggesting that the team isn’t keen on shelling out a significant multi-year deal.

Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler

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6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.

Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).

6:40pm: Shelby Miller’s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.

Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.

Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.

Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.

The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.

Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Joe Wieland

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The Dodgers have agreed on a 2016 salary with righty Joe Wieland, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Wieland will reportedly receive $590K next year.

MLBTR and Matt Schwartz had projected Wieland at just the league minimum, with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes labeling Wieland a possible non-tender candidate even at that price. After all, he’s thrown only 47 2/3 MLB innings while racking up the three-plus years of service time required to qualify for arbitration. (Wieland was on the active roster when it was determined he needed Tommy John surgery.)

Though the soon-to-be 26-year-old is hardly an established major leaguer, the Dodgers obviously didn’t want to risk losing him with a non-tender. Wieland has worked almost exclusively as a starter over his career but could conceivably factor in the major league pen this year. Last season at Triple-A, he tossed 113 2/3 innings of 4.59 ERA ball with 7.3 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.

Latest On Johnny Cueto’s Asking Price

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10:46pm: Arizona’s interest in Cueto was and perhaps still is rather intense, according to reports. The organization sent a delegation including GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, and president Derrick Hall to the Dominican Republic to meet with the righty, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. And the D’backs still have interest after the initial offer was rebuffed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), who adds that the club “realize[s]” that Cueto can command more than a $20MM AAV over six years after Jordan Zimmermann got $22MM annually for five.

Of course, the Diamondbacks aren’t alone in pursuing the veteran. Among the other teams to reach out to his representatives are the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That group of large-market contenders has always figured to factor at the top of the free agent pitching pool.

11:52am: Johnny Cueto reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM contract offer from the D-Backs recently, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick now reports that teams in the market for Cueto believe he’s seeking $140-160MM in total — a contract that would vault him into Jon Lester territory (Twitter link). According to Crasnick, the Diamondbacks initially planned to offer Cueto about $110MM but upped their offer to $120MM late in talks (Twitter link). The increase, however, wasn’t enough to get the job done.

It would seem, then, that Cueto’s camp is seeking a contract that doesn’t offer any sort of reduced rate due to the minor elbow issues that plagued Cueto this summer or due to his late-season struggles. Cueto was masterful in his first four outings with the Royals, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings, including a complete-game shutout of the Tigers. However, he limped to a 6.49 ERA over his final nine starts (51 1/3 innings). There were a few quality starts mixed in toward the end, but many speculated as to whether Cueto was fully healthy. Cueto and Salvador Perez reportedly worked to adjust where Perez would set the target for Cueto’s pitches, but he still had mixed results from that point forth.

Cueto’s postseason was a true mixed bag — one so-so start, one meltdown and a pair of dominant gems in pivotal games. His final outing — a one-run complete game over the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series — was a nice final impression to make as he headed into free agency. Nevertheless, Cueto’s overall body of work following his mild elbow flare-up and trade to the Royals saw him yield 58 earned runs in 106 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA) with a 75-to-27 K/BB ratio and 118 hits (13 homers) allowed.

None of that is to say that Cueto can’t or shouldn’t secure a hefty payday, of course. Despite those issues, the perception of Cueto has remained that he’s one of the three or four best starters on the market (depending on one’s feelings about Jordan Zimmremann), and we at MLBTR still projected him to clear $100MM with relative ease (though the $120MM he rejected already surpassed our most recent $115MM figure). Prior to those issues, a Lester-esque contract was a perfectly reasonable expectation for Cueto, and the possibility that he exceeded that figure was certainly present. Cueto, after all, logged a 2.48 ERA in 677 1/3 innings from 2011-14 despite pitching his home games in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks, and he carried a similarly elite 2.62 ERA and a 120-to-29 K/BB ratio through 130 2/3 innings with the Reds this season.

Cueto is a clear front-line starter when healthy and at his best, and he’s entering the open market heading into his age-30 season, having not yet even celebrated his 30th birthday as of this writing. That he’s already received a $120MM offer suggests that the demand for his services is strong, which certainly plays into his camp’s favor as the Winter Meetings approach.

Zack Greinke Market Beginning To Heat Up

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The market for free-agent ace Zack Greinke is “quietly heating up,” tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Both the Dodgers and Giants are looking for some clarity in regards to their pursuit of the right-hander, according to Crasnick, who hears that the Excel Sports client is seeking $30MM annually.

As Crasnick notes, that annual target is a challenge for teams interested in Greinke not only due to its own enormity but also due to the fact that Greinke is older than the typical free-agent starter, set to embark on his age-32 campaign in 2016. Most recent multi-year deals of the magnitude Greinke is expected to command conclude in the pitcher’s age-36 season (at least in terms of guaranteed money), but that would cap Greinke at five years. Considering the historically excellent season he just delivered in 2015, however, it’s easy to envision Greinke’s camp seeking six or more years on a free-agent deal.

After all, Greinke’s 1.66 ERA was the lowest single-season mark by a qualified starting pitcher in the past two decades. He logged 222 2/3 innings in the regular season, averaging 8.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 and went on to toss 13 2/3 very solid innings in the playoffs as well. Greinke has been nothing short of brilliant in his three years with the Dodgers, compiling a 2.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 regular-season innings, plus a strikingly similar 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 postseason innings.

Greinke’s age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer are both knocks against him when compared to his primary competitors — David Price and Johnny Cueto — but Greinke is also coming off the best season of the three. Beyond that, the general consensus among scouts seems to be that Greinke will age better than many of his elite peers, somewhat lessening the sting of committing a contract of significant length. In addition to the Dodgers and Giants, Greinke has also been linked to the Red Sox and Cubs, though other large-market, high-payroll teams figure to have privately expressed some interest as well.

Rosenthal On Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cueto, Ross

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new notes column that contains quite a few Hot Stove related items. Some highlights from his latest piece…

  • There’s a belief in the industry that the Cardinals’ new television deal — which begins in 2018, when it will net the team $50MM and continue to rise to about $86MM, per Forbes — could allow the team to sign two premium free agents. Rosenthal adds, though, that the Cardinals could nonetheless be uncomfortable making the top bid for David Price or Jason Heyward and might be “reluctant” to commit the type of dollars Chris Davis will command.
  • Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
  • The Dodgers have at least discussed the possibility of signing both Greinke and Price internally, according to Rosenthal, but they’re unlikely to go that route. Even the Dodgers and their seemingly limitless budget aren’t keen on the notion of paying three starters in the vicinity of $30MM annually, and they already have one such pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
  • That J.A. Happ landed a $36MM total from the Blue Jays could serve to increase the leverage that teams like the Indians and Rays have in talks for their starting pitchers. One exec told Rosenthal that “mediocre pitching” now costs a minimum of $30MM total. While that’s true enough, I don’t know that the Happ signing necessarily brought that realization about. We’ve seen players like Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and Ricky Nolasco clear the $30MM barrier in recent seasons, after all, and Happ’s final push in Pittsburgh shows he’s at least capable of pitching at a high level if those adjustments can be sustained.
  • The D-Backs’ interest in Johnny Cueto stems, in part, from the fact that he’s not tied to draft pick compensation. Arizona selects 13th overall next season and values that pick, Rosenthal writes. The team is reluctant to part with one of the top overall unprotected picks and probably isn’t likely to part with it for a second-tier starter (e.g. Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen). Arizona has already been tied to both Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, either of whom could bolster the rotation without harming next year’s draft.
  • The Padres are still receiving plenty of interest in right-hander Tyson Ross but are only willing to move him for a “monster package,” as Rosenthal terms it. Ross is controlled for two more seasons, and MLBTR projects him to earn $10MM in 2016.
  • Prior to Colby Rasmus accepting their qualifying offer, the Astros considered making a run at Brett Gardner or a similar type of player to fill the club’s leadoff slot, per Rosenthal. Now, however, they’ll likely use Jose Altuve there as the primary option again in 2016.

MLB To Investigate Yasiel Puig For Role In Bar Incident

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11:29pm: A police spokesman says that the department is not aware of any allegation that Puig was involved in any physical altercation with his sister, Hernandez reports (Twitter links). If that holds true, then it certainly seems that any domestic violence-related inquiry will be short-lived. Of course, it remains possible that other disciplinary measures could be considered.

9:09pm: The MLB commissioner’s office will investigate Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig under its new domestic violence policy for his role in a reported barroom altercation on Wednesday night, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports. Renato Bermudez of ESPN Deportes first reported the incident on Twitter.

A report from TMZ Sports suggested that Puig “pushed” his sister at the bar, precipitating a larger conflict and apparently bringing the matter within the purview of the investigatory provisions of the still-untested policy. The account given by a Miami police spokesperson, via the Associated Press, refers only to an “argument” between Puig and his sister and a scuffle between the outfielder and a bouncer. Commissioner Rob Manfred is tasked with investigating “all allegations of domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse in the Baseball community.”

Puig will not be charged in relation to the incident, though that fact would not insulate him from action by the commissioner’s office. The domestic violence policy specifically provides that punishment may be levied regardless of whether criminal charges are brought or a conviction achieved. (Specifically, it says that “the Commissioner can issue the discipline he believes is appropriate in light of the severity of the conduct.”)

It’s far from clear at this point how the investigation will proceed, let alone what kinds of repercussions could be expected. The domestic violence policy has yet to be applied, though the league recently opened an investigation into Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes after he was arrested and later charged with assaulting his wife.

Prospect Notes: Rule 5, Peraza, AFL

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Though it won’t take place until the end of the Winter Meetings, the stage has been set for the Rule 5 draft, as teams re-set their 40-man rosters in preparation. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper breaks down the players who weren’t protected and thus remain eligible to be plucked away. Cooper writes that we’re unlikely to see a repeat of last year’s incredible Rule 5 success rate, but still manages to come up with a large group of players who could draw interest. Best of all, they are sorted by player type (e.g., “inexperienced pitchers with great arms”).

Here are a few more prospect-related links to check out:

  • MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo answered reader questions in a mailbag today. Among other topics, he talks about the status of Dodgers second baseman Jose Peraza. The club ought to give him a chance to win regular playing time this spring, Mayo argues.
  • Mayo also recently listed ten standout prospects from the just-concluded Arizona Fall League. This group doesn’t reflect the players with the highest prospect standing from the fall league, but rather those that most improved their standing during the short season. Among them is Cardinals infielder Aledmys Diaz, who was outrighted last year but finished with a robust .315/.370/.616 line in Arizona and was added back to the 40-man roster.
  • Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen took a detailed look at the fall league results. Catcher Gary Sanchez of the Yankees and Rangers center fielder Lewis Brinson were among the players who showed increased promise from a scouting perspective. Also drawing that review was lefty Josh Hader, who was one of several interesting players who went to the Brewers in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/26/15

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Here are the latest minor league signings from around baseball, all reported by Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise credited…

  • The Rockies signed right-hander Brian Schlitter, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets.  The 6’5″ righty saw significant action out of the Cubs bullpen in 2014 but threw only 7 1/3 innings last season while posting a 7.36 ERA.  Schlitter has posted some strong minor league numbers over his career and (of particular interest to Colorado) he has a 60.7% grounder rate over the last two years in Chicago.
  • The Cubs signed righty Drew Rucinski.  Rucinski has a 6.28 ERA over 14 1/3 career IP with the Angels, and was both designated for assignment and then outrighted by the Halos last September.  He has a career 3.88 ERA, 2.98 K/BB rate and 8.1 K/9 over 326 2/3 career minor league frames.
  • The Indians announced that catcher Adam Moore has been re-signed.  Moore has appeared in each of the last seven Major League seasons, though aside from a 60-game stint with the Mariners in 2010, he’s never appeared in more than nine games in any one campaign.  This included 2015, when he played one game for Cleveland.  The veteran catcher has posted a strong .291/.356/.465 career slash line over 2946 minor league PA.
  • The Athletics re-signed catcher Carson Blair.  Blair made his MLB debut in 2015, receiving 35 PA over 11 games with the A’s.  The catcher posted some solid numbers over eight minor league seasons but struggled in his first taste of Triple-A action this season.  Oakland outrighted Blair off its 40-man roster earlier this month.
  • The Dodgers re-signed right-hander Matt West.  Los Angeles originally purchased West from the Blue Jays in May.  He appeared in two games for the Dodgers and spent most of 2015 in the minors, posting a cumulative 3.54 ERA over 53 1/3 innings but was hit hard in a stint at Triple-A Oklahoma City.  West was a second-round pick for the Rangers in the 2007 draft.
  • The Pirates signed righty reliever Curtis Partch.  The 28-year-old owns a 95mph fastball but that heater has only recently translated to big strikeout totals on the minor league level, and he has a 4.74 ERA over 820 IP in the minors.  Partch posted a 4.75 ERA, 24 walks and 22 strikeouts over 30 1/3 relief innings with the Reds in 2013-14.
  • The Padres signed right-handers Johnny Hellweg and Daniel McCutchen.  Once a notable prospect in Milwaukee’s system, Hellweg underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and struggled in 61 minor league innings last year after returning from injury rehab.  McCutchen has appeared in one Major League game since 2012 and bounced around with a few teams before catching on with San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate last year.
  • The Cardinals signed right-hander Deck McGuire, best known for being picked 11th overall by the Blue Jays in the 2010 draft.  McGuire has a 4.57 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 2.26 K/BB over 713 1/3 career minor league IP.
  • The Royals re-signed veteran righty Roman Colon and catcher J.C. Boscan.  Colon recorded 187 1/3 MLB innings from 2004-12 but hasn’t pitched in an affiliated minor league since 2013.  Boscan will be returning for his 20th season of pro ball after spending last season with Triple-A Omaha.  He’s received a few Major League cups of coffee over his long career, appearing in 17 games with the Braves and Cubs from 2010-13.
  • The Braves signed corner infielder Brandon Snyder.  Snyder, picked 13th overall by the Orioles in the 2005 draft, appeared in 83 career MLB games with Baltimore, Texas and Boston from 2010-13.  The 29-year-old spent much of last season at the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate.
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