Yankees, Mets Reportedly Increase Soto Bids Beyond $700MM
After reports emerged last night that bidding for the services for free agent superstar Juan Soto could reach beyond the $700MM threshold, that possibility appears to have now come to pass. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that both the Yankees and Mets have recently pushed their offers to the $710-730MM range as the slugger’s free agency nears its conclusion. Heyman suggests that while it’s “believed” that the Mets have placed the higher bid of the two New York clubs, the deals appear to be within the same range. He goes on to add that there’s been no indication of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Dodgers being eliminated from the Soto sweepstakes to this point despite the record-setting offers from both New York clubs.
The 26-year-old phenom has long been expected to easily beat the record for net present value Shohei Ohtani‘s megadeal with the Dodgers set last winter, which is estimated to be in the range of $461MM after accounting for the pact’s heavy deferrals. That said, it’s still somewhat shocking that the bidding for Soto has soared high enough that beating the $700MM guarantee Ohtani received last winter before factoring in deferred money is on the table. It’s possible that Soto’s deal could include some deferred money of its own, of course, but even with that possibility in mind it seems increasingly likely that he’ll shatter not only expectations entering the offseason but all previous precedents for guaranteed and annual money for MLB contracts.
Soto is in position to shatter records for a reason, of course. The youngster is particularly attractive to clubs given the fact that he’s marketing his age-26 season in free agency this winter. That extreme youth is uncommon in free agency, especially for top talent, and it allowed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to secure a record-breaking deal for starting pitchers last winter despite having never thrown a single pitch in MLB. By contrast, Soto is a four-time All Star and two-time MVP finalist who has never been less than 43% better than league average at the plate by measure of wRC+ during his career to this point. Soto’s combination of youth and track record hasn’t been seen in the majors since Alex Rodriguez‘s free agency more than two decades ago, and in that time teams have only grown to value youth even more highly.
Per Heyman’s report, all five known finalists for Soto’s services remain in the mix to land the superstar, who is generally expected to make his decision within the next day or two. Heyman suggests that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have all offered Soto at least $600MM, with the Dodgers’ offer coming in as the lowest of the five by a substantial amount. Beyond that, though, Heyman notes that the other four clubs have made offers that are “believed” to be relatively close to each other, and it’s unclear which of those four clubs has made the highest bid to this point. What’s more, Heyman suggests that Soto won’t necessarily choose the highest bidder, though it’s unclear what might motivate Soto to take a lesser offer. The Mets and Yankees have generally been viewed as the favorites to land Soto by the industry throughout his free agency, but whether that perception aligns with his actual preferences remains a mystery. The Red Sox, for their part, reportedly pushed for an additional meeting with Soto’s camp earlier this week, though it’s unclear if that request was or will be granted before the star makes his decision.
Soto Bidding Could Approach $700MM
As the Juan Soto decision nears, the expected contract seemingly continues to climb. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the price could push to $700MM. Heyman suggests that the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays may all be near that mark. The Dodgers are also a finalist, but various reports have put them as the least likely of the quintet to land him.
On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that multiple teams had made offers at or above $600MM. Agent Scott Boras said at the time that Soto had begun to narrow the field, though he didn’t specify a timetable for his decision. Most reports indicate he’s likely to sign by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, perhaps as soon as this weekend.
According to Heyman, teams have continued to adjust their offers in recent days. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported last night that the Red Sox were hoping for a final meeting with Soto’s camp to get the outfielder to name the specific price at which he’d put pen to paper. It’s not clear if Soto would grant any team that sit-down.
Shohei Ohtani’s deal was initially reported as a 10-year, $700MM contract. The extreme nature of the deferrals in the Ohtani deal, which were reported a few days after he announced he was signing with the Dodgers, dramatically reduced the net present value. MLB valued the contract around $461MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s still an all-time record. Soto was unquestionably going to beat $461MM and widely expected to go well beyond $500MM. (MLBTR predicted a 13-year, $600MM contract at the beginning of the offseason.) Getting to $700MM without deferrals would shatter prior contractual precedents.
Ohtani’s $46.06MM annual salary — again adjusting for deferrals — is the record for average annual value. Bryce Harper’s 13-year contract is the longest free agent deal in history. Soto would likely need to break both records to get to $700MM — potentially on a 14-year deal at $50MM annually. It shouldn’t be much longer before we learn if the market will go to those heights.
Red Sox Hoping For Additional Meeting With Soto
By this time next week, there’s a good chance Juan Soto will have picked his destination. As the star outfielder weighs multiple offers at or above $600MM, the top of the market waits.
At least one team is hoping for another sit-down with Soto and agent Scott Boras. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Red Sox’s brass has expressed interest in another meeting at which Soto’s camp would name the price necessary to get a deal done. That’s an effort to avoid being unknowingly outbid at the end.
It seems the Sox are worried about the Mets in particular. Speier writes that Sox’s brass has heard rumors that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen has promised Boras that he’d beat the best offer made by any other team by $50MM. To be clear, Speier is not reporting on the veracity of that rumor itself. Speier is neither confirming nor denying that Cohen made such offer. The Globe’s report only mentions that the Sox are concerned enough that the rumor might be true that they’re hopeful of getting Soto and Boras to name a specific price.
It’s not clear if Boras and Soto have any interest in doing so. There’s value for Soto in playing teams’ uncertainties against each other. Relaying the specifics of every offer to each team in the race would eventually result in a highest bidder, but it’d also limit the possibility that one club goes well beyond whatever is on the table from the others.
There have seemingly been five legitimate suitors for Soto: the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Various reports have cast the Dodgers as a long shot. The general view is that Los Angeles entered the mix mostly to gauge whether Soto’s market might not materialize quite the way he’d envisioned. With multiple teams putting $600MM+ offers out there, that hasn’t been the case. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote last night that the Dodgers were unlikely to land him.
Speier confirms that the Red Sox recently upped their offer to $600MM. The Athletic reported on Tuesday that every team that still had a chance at Soto had hit or topped that mark. (That’s not necessarily a declaration that all five teams mentioned above had offered $600MM+, as it’s possible he has privately narrowed the field to exclude one or more of them.) Most observers still expect it to come down to one of the New York franchises, though the Sox and Jays have seemingly made full-fledged pushes to get themselves in the conversation.
One big spender that made little effort on Soto: the Phillies. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia brass never met with his camp. While the Phils haven’t shied away from big-ticket free agent pursuits, it seems they never believed they had a realistic chance to land Soto. Philadelphia owner John Middleton said a month ago that he felt they’d merely be used to drive up the bidding for Soto to sign with one of the New York teams (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Whether or not that would’ve been the case, Gelb writes that the Phillies felt it best to prioritize other avenues they found more realistic.
Freddie Freeman Undergoes Ankle Surgery
The Dodgers announced today that first baseman Freddie Freeman underwent surgery on his right ankle “consisting of debridement and the removal of loose bodies.” They added that Freeman is “expected to be able to participate in baseball activities during Spring Training” though it’s unclear how impacted his offseason will be.
Freeman’s ankle injury was a key storyline over the past few months. He suffered a sprain in late September in one of the final regular season games of the 2024 campaign, which made Freeman’s status a frequent talking point throughout the postseason.
He continued to hang onto a roster spot with the club as they advanced from round to round, but was clearly not playing 100%. With Shohei Ohtani in the designated hitter slot, Freeman even had to play the field on many occasions while obviously playing through pain. During the postseason, he revealed that he was dealing with a bone bruise in addition to the sprain and would have missed four to six weeks if the issue had cropped up during the regular season. As if that wasn’t enough, Jeff Passan of ESPN later reported that Freeman suffered broken costal cartilage in his sixth rib just as the postseason was beginning, which would normally require a monthslong absence.
Despite those issues, Freeman went to have a postseason for the ages. He wasn’t great in the NLDS nor the NLCS but went complete supernova in the World Series. He hit a walkoff grand slam, the first in World Series history, to lift the Dodgers in game one. He then went on to hit a home run in the next three games as well. He set a World Series record with 12 runs batted in and slashed .300/.364/1.000, helping the Dodgers win the title and earning himself World Series MVP honors in the process.
Unsurprisingly, the attention has now shifted to getting him healthy for 2025 and it has been determined that surgery was necessary. It seems he will have enough time to be healthy for next year, though it wouldn’t be disastrous for the Dodgers if he hit some snags and ended up needing to miss a bit of time at the start of the 2025 season. Third baseman Max Muncy is capable of playing first base, while multi-positional players like Miguel Rojas or Chris Taylor could cover the hot corner.
MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Dodgers signing Blake Snell (2:00)
- Baseball fans having Dodger fatigue and deferral fatigue (9:05)
- Are the Dodgers going to make more rotation additions? (14:30)
- The Dodgers extending Tommy Edman (16:25)
- The news of the Red Sox signing Aroldis Chapman breaks during recording (21:30)
- The Mets signing Frankie Montas (26:30)
- The Cubs signing Matthew Boyd (35:55)
- The Rangers signing Kyle Higashioka (43:15)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
- Why is Cody Bellinger‘s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here
- The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here
- Roki Sasaki, Gerrit Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Bidding For Juan Soto Has Reached At Least $600MM
The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.
With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.
Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.
While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.
That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.
In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.
Dodgers Discussing Front Office Role With Farhan Zaidi
The Dodgers are in talks with Farhan Zaidi about a possible front office position, report Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Zaidi spent the last six seasons running baseball operations with the Giants. San Francisco fired him and tabbed Buster Posey as their new front office leader at the end of the regular season.
Zaidi is no stranger to the L.A. organization. He spent four seasons as Dodgers general manager between 2015-18. Zaidi was Andrew Friedman’s top lieutenant during that run. He departed to take over baseball operations in San Francisco during the 2018-19 offseason. Before landing in L.A., he worked his way up to assistant general manager in the A’s organization under Billy Beane.
The 48-year-old’s tenure in San Francisco was mixed. The Giants only made the playoffs once in Zaidi’s six years. That was a magical 2021 season that saw San Francisco win 107 games, narrowly topping the Dodgers for the NL West title. The Giants have essentially been a league average team in the three years since then. Much of Zaidi’s tenure was defined by a series of near misses in their pursuits of top free agents (i.e. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa after his failed physical).
Zaidi’s front office had a knack for developing unheralded targets into productive role players or solid regulars. They hit on low-cost acquisitions of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada, for instance. Yet the Giants rarely had the high-end talent necessary to compete with star-studded rosters in Los Angeles and San Diego. That persisted even after San Francisco landed Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler late last offseason.
Even if Zaidi’s tenure in San Francisco didn’t end the way he’d envisioned, it’s unsurprising that the Dodgers are interested in bringing him back. He’d bring more than a decade of high-level experience along with his personal connections to Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes, and senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes.
Blake Snell’s Deal With Dodgers Includes Conditional Club Option
Left-hander Blake Snell and the Dodgers reportedly agreed to a deal a week ago and the club officially announced it on the weekend, but the finer details of the pact are still trickling out. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link), the $182MM guarantee breaks down as a $52MM signing bonus followed by $26MM salaries in each of the five years of the deal, though with $13.2MM deferred annually without interest. There’s a $5MM assignment bonus if Snell is traded. Additionally, there’s a $10MM club option for 2030 under certain conditions: if Snell hasn’t been assigned to another club and has 90 or more days in a row on the injured list due to specific injury.
Many of these details came out in the initial reporting, including the guarantee, the signing bonus, the assignment bonus and that there were significant deferrals. However, the deferrals are slightly higher than initially thought. The numbers reported last week were $13MM in annual deferrals for a total of $65MM, but we now know that it’s slightly higher than that, with the $13.2MM annual figure actually getting the total number of deferrals to $66MM. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link), the MLBPA calculates the net present value of the deal at $150.336MM.
But the conditional option is the most significant new development today, as there was no prior reporting about Snell’s contract extending into the 2030 season in any way. Now it’s known that the Dodgers could potentially hold onto Snell for a sixth year, though only under certain circumstances.
Given the conditions, it seems it gives the Dodgers a bit of an insurance policy in the event Snell ends up with a significant injury over the course of the deal. Presumably, the specific injury would involve something related to his pitching elbow, whether that’s Tommy John surgery or some internal brace alternative. Such surgeries have become increasingly common in baseball in recent decades but still require pitchers to spend upwards of a year recovering.
Assuming that is the specific injury covered in the contract, the Dodgers would have the choice of keeping Snell around for an extra year, compensating them in a way for the lost year. Snell will be 37 years old by the time 2030 rolls around, so it’s anyone’s guess what kind of form he will be in at that point, especially if there’s a notable injury along the way. But $10MM is already not a lot of money for a starting pitcher.
Last winter, veteran back-end guys like Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn got $13MM and $11MM guarantees on one-year deals, respectively. Wade Miley and Alex Wood were not far behind at $8.5MM. Inflation generally pushes salaries up over time, so those kinds of deals might creep up a bit between now and 2030.
It’s also possible Snell’s future talent level is above where those guys are now, given that he’s a two-time Cy Young winner and has had a more impressive peak than anyone in that group. Not all pitchers can maintain that kind of performance into their late 30s, but those who do are handsomely rewarded. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler were each recently able to secure salaries of $42MM or higher for deals that covered their late 30s or early 40s, so Snell at $10MM could be a massive bargain if he continues to pitch well over the course of the deal.
The fact that the option is also conditional on Snell not being assigned to another club is also interesting, as it could reduce the chances of Snell being traded while hurt. Robbie Ray underwent Tommy John surgery while with the Mariners and found himself traded to the Giants before he recovered from that procedure. If Snell ends up missing some time and unlocking that option for the Dodgers, they might be more inclined to keep him and take advantage of that option. All of this is moot for now, but it could become relevant down the line, depending on how things play out in the next five years.
Blue Jays To Add Lou Iannotti To Coaching Staff
The Blue Jays are hiring Lou Iannotti to John Schneider’s coaching staff, reports TSN’s Scott Mitchell (X link). Mitchell suggests Iannotti is likely to take an assistant hitting coach role under first-year hitting instructor David Popkins.
Iannotti, 32, had been with the Dodgers as a minor league hitting coordinator. A collegiate catcher at Quinnipiac, he had a very brief stint as a professional player in the independent Frontier League. Iannotti quickly moved into coaching in the lowest levels of the Dodgers’ minor league system. He worked his way up to hitting coach for L.A.’s Double-A affiliate before landing the coordinator role that allowed him to oversee multiple minor league levels. This’ll be his first work on an MLB coaching staff.
The Jays already have Hunter Mense on staff as an assistant hitting coach. He’s a holdover from previous years. The Jays otherwise made changes to their offensive staff. Toronto fired previous hitting coach Guillermo Martinez at the end of the season. Don Mattingly, who’d served as offensive coordinator in addition to bench coach, will only have traditional bench coach responsibilities with Popkins coming on as hitting coach.
Dodgers Sign Blake Snell To Five-Year Deal
The Dodgers continue to load up, as they announced their five-year contract with left-hander Blake Snell Saturday afternoon. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $182MM guarantee but reportedly includes $65MM in deferrals ($13MM per year) that’ll reduce the net present value to the $160-165MM range. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s age 32-36 seasons.
It’s the offseason’s biggest move to date and represents a much quicker resolution than Snell’s previous trip to the market. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term deal he sought didn’t materialize, leading to an extended free agent stay. Snell went unsigned into March before joining the Giants on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $62MM and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.
Snell had a dismal start to the season. He allowed more than a run per inning over his first six appearances. He landed on the injured list twice in the first three months while battling groin discomfort. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a near-lock that Snell would bypass the chance to return to free agency.
That all changed as soon as he returned from his second IL stint. By the end of the season, there was no doubt he’d pass on the remaining $30MM on his pact with San Francisco. Snell was the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. Over his final 14 starts, he turned in a 1.23 earned run average while holding opponents to a .123/.211/.171 batting line that looked like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.
Snell struck out more than 38% of batters faced over that run. He had five double-digit strikeout performances and fanned at least eight hitters in 10 outings. Snell had the best two-start run of his career right around the trade deadline. He struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on July 27 before no-hitting the Reds with 11 punchouts on August 2.
The overall numbers were still weighed down to some extent by his terrible first two months. He wrapped up the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings spanning 20 starts. That’s a strong season but didn’t earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year was less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he posted during his ’23 campaign in San Diego. Snell finished the season looking every bit as dominant as he’d been during his Cy Young years, though.
It seems the Dodgers are attributing the first two months to some combination of an abbreviated Spring Training and the injuries. While this year was the most extreme example, Snell has been a slow starter throughout his career. He has a 3.95 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate in the first half of his nine big league seasons. The ERA plummets to 2.39 while he has raised his strikeout percentage above 32% after the All-Star Break.
The main knock has been his lack of consistent durability. Snell has reached the 180-inning threshold on two occasions — his 2018 Cy Young season with the Rays and his ’23 award-winning campaign. Outside those seasons, Snell has topped out in the 125-130 inning range.
That’s not a concern for the Dodgers, who have shown they’re far more interested in chasing upside than bulk. Los Angeles acquired and extended Tyler Glasnow last offseason even though he’d never topped 120 MLB innings in a season. The Dodgers will give Shohei Ohtani another chance to pitch coming off his second significant elbow surgery. They’re almost certainly going to reunite with Clayton Kershaw. They’ve graduated a number of talented pitchers from the farm system but seen a lot of them go down to injuries.
It’s an approach geared heavily toward the postseason. The Dodgers prioritize pitchers who profile as potential Game 1 starters. They’re very willing to assume injury risk while chasing that ceiling. That left them woefully short on starting pitching in 2023, resulting in a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The injuries mounted again this fall, but they had just enough in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to patch together an October rotation. With a star-studded lineup, that was sufficient to lift their second trophy in five years.
Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two years, only Reynaldo López and Tarik Skubal have a lower ERA than his 2.57 mark. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate is second, trailing only Glasnow by a fraction of a percentage point. No one has a higher swinging strike rate.
The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each capable of providing ace-caliber production on a rate basis. It’s unlikely all four will be healthy come playoff time, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options behind them. Kershaw figures to be back in the rotation mix once he re-signs, while Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and prospect Nick Frasso are returning from major surgeries. Bobby Miller is looking to rebound from a terrible sophomore season after turning in a 3.76 ERA across 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski are capable depth arms.
That’s before considering the possibility of further acquisitions. The Dodgers will surely make a push for NPB ace Roki Sasaki, who’d arguably be the fifth starter if he went to L.A. Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue Garrett Crochet on the offseason trade market and/or continue adding starting pitching at the deadline.
Of course, the ability to stockpile this kind of rotation talent is a reflection of the Dodgers’ financial might. Even if other front offices share their general approach to valuing upside over durability, few ownership groups are willing to match L.A.’s spending. The Dodgers had generally shied away from pitching splashes under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, but that has changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure pitching investment since last offseason (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325MM and extended Glasnow on a deal that included $110MM in new money.
MLBTR ranked Snell as the #2 starting pitcher in the class and predicted a five-year, $160MM contract. The deal’s actual value lands right around there. The specific NPV won’t be clear until the deferral structure is revealed. The expected $32-33MM luxury tax hit indicates the deal will have a net present value in the $160-165MM range. That’d be the second-biggest luxury tax hit on L.A.’s books, trailing only the approximate $46.1MM CBT number on Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700MM contract.
In any case, the deal is likely to push the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax figure north of $300MM. They’ll almost certainly land in the fourth and final tier of penalization, which begins at $301MM. The Dodgers are subject to the highest tier of escalation penalties for paying the tax in at least three straight seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers something in the range of $25-30MM in taxes by vaulting them from the middle of the second penalization tier to the start of the highest tax bracket. Future spending will be taxed at the maximum 110% clip.
It’s a major commitment but one the Dodgers are well-positioned to make. They’re coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series win. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani’s contract allows the Dodgers to continue stockpiling talent. While the Ohtani deal was not an end-around the luxury tax, there’s a huge benefit from a raw payroll perspective. Paying the NL MVP a $2MM salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they’re able to continue taking on huge money in the short term.
Snell slotted alongside Corbin Burnes and ahead of Max Fried as the top starters in this year’s class. In addition to fitting the Dodgers’ general preference for high-ceiling arms, Snell came with the benefit of not costing draft compensation. He’s the only of the top three starters who wasn’t issued a qualifying offer. Snell had received the QO during his first free agent trip, so the Giants could not make the offer this time around. Burnes and Fried each rejected a qualifying offer and would’ve cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM from their ’26 bonus pool for international amateurs.
Burnes and Fried become the clear #1-2 options for the other teams seeking top-flight starting pitching. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported this evening that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also in the Snell bidding. They’ve all been tied to top-of-the-market starting pitchers — Boston especially — and should remain active on that front in the weeks to come.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year deal, shortly after the pitcher revealed on Instagram that he was joining L.A. Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the $182MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported that the deal contained deferrals that would drop the net present value to the $32-33MM range annually. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was first with the $52MM signing bonus, while Feinsand had the limited no-trade protection. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported the absence of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the presence of an assignment bonus, which Harris relayed at $5MM. Heyman first reported the exact breakdown of the deferrals.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.