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Matt Barnes Open To In-Season Extension Talks

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Red Sox closer Matt Barnes is in the midst of a career year at the perfect time, with free agency looming just a few months down the road. However, while many free-agents-to-be  set an Opening Day deadline for extension talks with their current club, Barnes made clear this week that he’s “absolutely” open to talking about a new contract during the season (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Barnes added that while the two sides talked during Spring Training and even exchanged numbers, the Red Sox haven’t made an offer since.

Barnes, 31 next week, has the second-highest strikeout rate among all qualified relievers at a whopping 49.5 percent, trailing only division rival Aroldis Chapman for the MLB lead. He’s worked 26 1/3 innings for the Sox this season and notched a tidy 2.73 ERA but with an even better 1.36 FIP and 1.33 SIERA.

Barnes has long been a solid late-inning option with well above-average strikeouts, but he’s taken his game to new heights in 2021. The breakout isn’t accompanied by a major uptick in fastball velocity or spin rate — both are actually down a bit from 2019 — or by the implementation of a new pitch.

The biggest change for Barnes looks attributable to the best command the right-hander has ever had. His 7.4 percent walk rate is far and away the lowest of his career. Barnes walked 12.7 percent of his opponents from 2018-20, but he’s slashed that this season in large part by emphasizing strike one; he’d thrown a first-pitch strike at just a 58 percent clip in his career prior to 2021, but that number has skyrocketed to 72.6 percent this season — a mark that ranks fourth-best among 182 qualified relievers. He’s inducing chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a career-high 37.6 percent, and his opponents’ 46.5 percent contact rate on those chases is the second-best mark of his career (trailing his 44.4 percent mark in 2018).

This is the best version of Barnes that the Red Sox have seen, and his breakthrough has no doubt played a role in the Red Sox beating virtually all preseason expectations with a 37-25 record with nearly 40 percent of the season in the books. Barnes is tied for fifth in Major League Baseball with 14 saves, has only blown two opportunities this season, and has only been scored upon in five of his 26 appearances.

All of that positions Barnes quite nicely as the open market looms. There’s no established, dominant presence among this winter’s group, which leaves Barnes looking like a candidate to hit the market as the top name available. Fellow breakout right Kendall Graveman could give him some competition in that regard, but Barnes is undeniably well-positioned for the time being.

Barnes is earning every bit of a $4.5MM salary thus far in 2021, but he’d obviously be in line for a sizable raise on that rate over a multi-year deal in free agency. This past offseason wasn’t a great year for relievers as a whole. Only Liam Hendriks topped two years in length or $9MM in annual value (on a multi-year deal). His $54MM guarantee from the White Sox is one of the largest sums ever promised to a reliever, but Blake Treinen’s two-year, $17.5MM deal was the next-largest contract for any bullpen arm.

A year prior, the top bullpen arms on the market were lefties Will Smith (three years, $40MM) and Drew Pomeranz (four years, $34MM). In 2018-19 we saw each of Joe Kelly, Adam Ottavino, Familia and Zack Britton score three-year pacts with average annual values ranging from $8-13MM.

If Barnes can sustain this output, history suggests he’d be able to target seeking a contract of at least three years in free agency. An annual salary approaching or even exceeding $10MM — perhaps by a decent margin — wouldn’t seem outlandish if he continues punching out nearly half of his opponents. Barnes’ track record of this level of dominance is relatively short, but that was also true of many of the relievers who cashed in over the past three offseasons (Hendriks and Pomeranz chief among them).

There’s no indication that the Red Sox are planning a run at extending Barnes just yet. Luxury-tax concerns have underscored nearly every move the team has made for the past couple years. That said, Sox are under the line this year and could structure any contract as a new deal beginning in 2022 so as not to impact their 2021 bottom line (as they did when extending Chris Sale a couple years back). The Red Sox have about $127MM in luxury-tax obligations on the 2022 ledger, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Critically, we don’t know what the luxury barrier will be in 2022 or if the luxury-tax system will even exist in its current state. That, of course is dependent on the ongoing collective bargaining talks. Whatever happens, Barnes made clear the ball is in the team’s court.

“We haven’t had any discussions since spring training,” said Barnes. “If the Red Sox want to make an offer and they want to start those conversations… I’ve always been a firm believer that listening to information is always free.”

Quick Hits: Donaldson, Red Sox, Peacock, Casali

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Twins third baseman Josh Donaldson doubled in his first at-bat of 2021 on Thursday, but the club then pulled him out of the game as a result of right hamstring tightness. The Twins will re-evaluate Donaldson on Friday, manager Rocco Baldelli told Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com and other reporters. While this fortunately doesn’t appear to be a calf problem for Donaldson, who has dealt with those in previous seasons, it’s nonetheless disheartening for Minnesota to see him deal with yet another health problem at the outset of the campaign. The former AL MVP only played in 165 regular-season games from 2017-18 as a Blue Jay and Indian, and after a healthy 2019 with the Braves, the Twins signed him to a four-year, $92MM contract. Donaldson appeared in just 28 of a possible 60 games in the first year of the deal, though.

  • The Red Sox and right-handed reliever Matt Barnes discussed a contract extension during the spring, but there’s little optimism about a deal coming together, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. That leaves the 30-year-old on track to reach free agency next winter, and in the meantime, he’ll earn $4.5MM this season. The hard-throwing Barnes, a career-long member of the Red Sox, has pitched to a 4.08 ERA with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate in 337 1/3 innings since debuting in 2014. He amassed 60-plus innings in each season from 2016-19.
  • Free-agent right-hander Brad Peacock is healthy after undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery last October and will hold a showcase for interested teams Friday in Florida, MLBTR has learned. The 33-year-old Peacock’s shoulder troubles limited him to a mere three appearances in 2020, his last season as an Astro, but he was an effective swingman for the club during the few preceding campaigns. Between 2016-19, Peacock recorded a 3.48 ERA and a 28.7 percent strikeout rate across 128 appearances (42 starts) and 320 1/3 innings.
  • Catcher Curt Casali earned a $500K bonus when he landed a spot on the Giants’ season-opening roster, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Casali, whom the Giants signed to a $1.5MM contract in free agency, will back up Buster Posey. He earned that deal after a three-year stretch with the Reds in which he hit a respectable .260/.345/.440 with 18 home runs in 485 plate appearances.

COVID Notes: 3/30/21

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The latest on coronavirus-related situations around the sport…

  • The Astros announced that Myles Straw, Abraham Toro, and Garrett Stubbs have rejoined the team after clearing COVID-19 protocols.  (MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those to report the news.)  The trio were absent for contract-tracing purposes in the wake of another positive test within Houston’s camp.
  • Matt Barnes’ positive COVID-19 test over the weekend was determined to be a false positive or a non-infectious positive, and the reliever has been cleared to return to Red Sox camp.  Barnes tested negative several times before being allowed to rejoin the team, and with only a few days of action missed, Barnes tells Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe and other reporters that he is ready for Opening Day.
  • Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter tested positive for COVID-19, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck) yesterday.  Other coaches are out of camp while contact tracing and further tests are administered, though it appears to be somewhat precautionary, as Hinch said that “no one else — player, staff — has been impacted or affected by this.”  The Tigers have yet to decide who will act as on the on-field pitching coach while Fetter is quarantined.  Fetter is entering his first season with the organization after previously working as the University of Michigan’s pitching coach.

COVID Notes: 3/27/21

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The latest on the coronavirus’ impact on the sport:

Latest Updates

Earlier Notes

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Latest Investment News, Closer Competition

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Xander Bogaerts will take a couple games off to rest a sore shoulder, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). The Red Sox do not believe he should have any problem being ready for opening day. Bogaerts might be the most important position player on the roster, as Boston doesn’t have a ready-made everyday replacement for him at short. Christian Arroyo started one game there last season, but he hasn’t regularly played the position since 2017. Same basic story for Marwin Gonzalez, who is best served filling in elsewhere around he diamond. Jeter Downs can handle short, but Boston isn’t likely to begin his ML career as an injury replacement. Jonathan Araúz isn’t a sure thing to make the roster, but he could be the guy he if makes the team. Kiké Hernandez might be the best option on the roster. He has played a little shortstop every season going back to 2014, though he generally sat behind Chris Taylor on the depth chart as the primary backup. Now, more from Boston…

  • The Fenway Sports Group is reviewing the details of a private investment offer by RedBird Capital that would raise their valuation to roughly $7.35 billion, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. FSG would remain a private company led by the current leadership group of John Henry, Tom Werner, and Michael Gordon. Managing Partner and CEO of RedBird Capital Gerry Cardinale – along with Billy Beane of the A’s – was a primary driver behind the recent RedBall SPAC (special interest acquisition group), which would have taken the company public. In this case, the roughly $750MM investment certainly helps in the big picture sense, but the Red Sox themselves aren’t likely to see much of an impact. The Fenway Sports Group has a number of properties, and this opportunity has further-reaching implications beyond, say, the Red Sox payroll. By taking the private investment route, Cardinale and RedBird would become a significant stakeholder, while FSG would get a cash influx to further their broader growth plans. Both FSG and RedBird have noted interest in expanding their holdings within the sports entertainment sector.
  • Expect Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock to open the season in the bullpen. The Red Sox like what they’ve seen so far, and if he doesn’t make the team, they’ll have to return him to the Yankees. The additions of versatile bench options on the offensive end should allow the Red Sox to carry an extra pitcher for much of this season, helping Whitlock’s chances of staying in Boston. In other bullpen news, Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino are competing for the closer role, though Ryan Brasier could have a hand in closing games as well, writes the Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Hirokazu Sawamura will not pitch in that spot, despite having some experience in the role.

Red Sox Notes: Ottavino, Luxury Tax, Bradley Jr.

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Red Sox’ Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom addressed a number of questions about the offseason moves they have (and haven’t) made so far this winter, per the reporters present, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, and the Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. The call was prompted by the club’s recent (and rare) transaction with their chief rival. Bloom noted that they looked “under the hood” at Adam Ottavino’s 2020 numbers and believe the assumption of his poor performance in 2020 may be misguided. In particular, he notes one particularly poor outing against the Blue Jays in which he surrendered six earned runs without recording an out. Take out that September 7th appearance, and Ottavino’s ERA drops from 5.89 to 2.95. Of course, that outing did happen. Even so, there’s a positive read in Ottavino’s 2020 stat line:  3.52 FIP, 3.62 SIERA, 29.4 percent strikeout rate, and 10.6 percent walk rate suggest the right-hander was close to the same guy he ’d been in 2019, when he formed an important part of the Yankees’ bullpen. Ottavino figures to play a heavy role in the back-end of Boston’s bullpen, though the dispersal of responsibilities between Ottavino and incumbent closer Matt Barnes is TBD. More from Bloom…

  • The Yankees moved Ottavino to trim enough salary to duck the $210MM luxury tax line, but according to Bloom, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Red Sox will do the same. With Ottavino in the fold, the Red Sox luxury tax payroll appears to be around $206MM, which certainly doesn’t leave very much room to spare. While the plan is to avoid the tax, that’s not a firm mandate, Bloom notes.
  • Even taking Bloom at his word, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox going over the luxury tax when so many teams these days work so diligently to avoid it – especially in a season where the Red Sox are largely projected to be an afterthought to the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays in the AL East. The Red Sox aren’t probably quite as quick to write off their 2021 season, of course. Still, it’s fair to wonder if they have the funds remaining to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. The team remains in contact with Bradley, however, and plans to do so “until his free agency resolves.” Though your read may differ, Bloom’s passive word choice doesn’t project the picture of an aggressive forthcoming attempt to woo Bradley back to Fenway, despite his point here being that a reunion remains possible.

Red Sox, Matt Barnes Discussed Extension Prior To Shutdown

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Red Sox righty Matt Barnes will be a free agent after the 2021 season, but the 30-year-old tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he hopes to spend his entire career in Boston. To that end, Barnes revealed that he and the organization had discussed a multi-year deal that would have extended his time with the Red Sox “beyond next year.”

There’s no indication to this point that the two sides plan to resume talks, although Barnes makes clear that he’s plenty open to the possibility. All 30 big league clubs were impacted by the lack of gate revenue in 2020, and all are still waiting to ascertain just what the 2021 season will look like in terms of fan attendance, length of season and other factors.

Barnes saw his strikeout and walk rates both trend in the wrong direction in 2020, although as Speier points out, he finished the season with a strong showing in September. Barnes’ track record on the whole in Boston is quite good, and the past four seasons in particular have seen him assume a prominent role in the team’s relief corps. Dating back to 2017, Barnes owns a 3.83 ERA and a 3.30 FIP, having averaged 13.2 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and 0.99 HR/9 with a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate. From 2018-19, only four of the 108 qualified relievers in MLB struck out a greater percentage of batters faced than Barnes: Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Aroldis Chapman and Kirby Yates.

Barnes and the Red Sox agreed to a $4.5MM salary for the upcoming season earlier this week, so his earnings are locked in barring the restructuring of that salary as part of a longer-term deal. Any such contract talks aren’t likely to happen in the near future, however. Extensions are most commonly negotiated during Spring Training even under normal circumstances — hence last spring’s talks referenced by Barnes — and that figures to be more true than ever as teams wait to gather information that will determine their revenue streams in 2021.

If Barnes does eventually reach the market next winter, he’ll join what looks to be a rather weak class of free-agent relievers. Assuming a solid season in 2021, Barnes could make a case for himself as one of the more appealing names on the market.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/2/20

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With the non-tender deadline coming today at 7pm CT, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance.  In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections.  Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market.  Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

Earlier Agreements

  • Twins righty Jose Berrios will earn $6.1MM with a $500K signing bonus in 2021, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Catcher Mitch Garver will rake in $1.875MM, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Center fielder Byron Buxton ($5.125MM) and reliever Taylor Rogers (terms not released) also agreed to deals, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.
  • The Phillies have deals with starter Zach Eflin ($4.45MM) and relievers Hector Neris ($5MM), David Hale ($850K) and Seranthony Dominguez ($727,500), Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Heyman and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com relay.
  • The Marlins and first baseman Garrett Cooper have a $1.8MM agreement that could max out at $2.05MM with performance bonuses, Craig Mish of Sportsgrid tweets.
  • The Brewers are keeping catcher Manny Pina in the fold for $1.65MM, according to Heyman. They’re also retaining first baseman Daniel Vogelbach for $1.4MM, Nightengale reports.
  • The Giants and outfielder Austin Slater have a one-year, $1.15MM deal, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.The club also reached a $925K agreement with lefty Wandy Peralta and a $700K pact with righty Trevor Gott, Heyman tweets.
  • The Cubs are bringing back hurlers Dan Winkler ($900K), Colin Rea ($702,500) and Kyle Ryan ($800K), Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Ryan’s agreement is a split contract that features a $250K minor league salary.
  • The Mets are retaining lefty Steven Matz for $5.2MM, Nightengale tweets. Matz had a brutal campaign in 2020 with a 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP over 30 2/3 innings in 2020, but the Mets will give him a chance to rebound.
  • The Padres and lefty Matt Strahm have a one-year, $2MM deal, Nightengale reports. Strahm gave the Padres a 2.61 ERA/4.93 FIP in 20 2/3 innings in 2020.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia, whom the Mets claimed from Pittsburgh in August, will earn $1MM in 2021, according to Nightengale.
  • The Astros and reliever Austin Pruitt have settled for $617, 500, per Heyman. The right-hander missed the season with elbow issues.
  • The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler have agreed to a one-year, $8.05MM deal with $250K in incentives, Nightengale reports. Soler was a 48-home run hitter in 2019, but his production went backward this past season, in which he slashed .228/.326/.443 with eight HRs in 174 trips to the plate.
  • The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. Barnes has been a solid reliever as a member of the Red Sox, though he yielded more than five walks per nine and upward of four runs per nine in 2020. Brasier was more successful this past season, as he tossed 25 frames of 3.96 ERA/3.15 FIP ball and averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Plawecki had a nice year as the backup to Christian Vazquez, as he batted .341/.393/.463 in 89 PA.
  • The Giants and southpaw Jarlin Garcia have settled for $950K, according to Heyman. Garcia is coming off an 18 1/3-inning effort in which he posted a near-perfect 0.49 (with an impressive 3.14 FIP) and 6.87 K/9 against 3.44 BB/9.
  • The Marlins have agreed to a one-year, $4.3MM deal with first baseman Jesus Aguilar, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The 30-year-old slugger put up strong numbers in his first year with the Fish, slashing .277/.352/.457 with eight long balls in 216 plate appearances.
  • The Giants and outfielder Alex Dickerson settled at a year and $2MM, tweets Nightengale. The 30-year-old slugger has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent in limited work with the Giants, including a .298/.371/.576 slash in 170 plate appearances this past season.
  • Luis Cessa will be back with the Yankees on a one-year deal, tweets Nightengale. He’ll earn $1.05MM. The righty notched a 3.32 ERA and 3.79 FIP with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings this past season. Fellow righty Ben Heller will also return, the team announced, though it didn’t disclose financial details.
  • First baseman Matt Olson and the Athletics settled on a one-year deal worth $5MM, tweets Nightengale. The 26-year-old Olson’s .198/.310/.424 slash was an obvious step back from his 2019 campaign, but he’s still viewed as a vital part of the club’s future moving forward.
  • The Braves and righty Luke Jackson agreed to a one-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The 29-year-old was rocked for a 6.84 ERA in this year’s shortened slate of games but posted a 3.84 ERA and 3.24 FIP with better than 13 K/9 as one of the team’s steadiest relievers in 2019. The contract is valued at $1.9MM, per a team announcement.
  • The Brewers are bringing back catcher Omar Narvaez for one year and $2.5MM, Heyman tweets. Narvaez was a very good offensive catcher from 2o16-19 with the White Sox and Mariners, but he struggled last season after the M’s traded him to the Brewers. Thanks in part to a career-worst 31 percent strikeout rate, Narvaez could only muster a .176/.294/.269 line and a paltry two HRs in 126 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he’s in line to return to the Brewers for a second season.
  • The Brewers have agreed to a one-year, $2MM contract with shortstop Orlando Arcia, Nightengale relays. Arcia endured serious struggles on offense in prior years, but the 26-year-old managed a respectable .260/.317/.416 line with five home runs over 189 plate appearances this past season.
  • The Phillies and catcher Andrew Knapp have reached a one-year, $1.1MM agreement, per Nightengale. Typically a light-hitting backstop, Knapp batted a career-best .278/.404/.444 in 89 plate appearances in 2020. He’s currently the No. 1 catcher on a Phillies team that could lose J.T. Realmuto in free agency.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.225MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. It was the second year of arb eligibility for Gonzalez, whose glovework will earn him a contract despite a brutal .227/.255/.359 batting line in 193 plate appearances in 2020.
  • The Royals and Hunter Dozier agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.72MM in entirely guaranteed money, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  More is available to Dozier via contract incentives.  Dozier hit .228/.344/.392 over 186 PA after missing over the first two weeks of the season recovering from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • The Red Sox agreed to an $870K deal with right-hander Austin Brice for the 2021 season, as per Nightengale.  Brice posted a 5.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 5.9 BB/9 over 19 2/3 innings in his first season in Boston, and was considered a potential non-tender candidate.
  • The Twins and righty Tyler Duffey agreed to a one-year, $2.2MM pact, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports.  According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Duffey’s deal is fully guaranteed.
  • The Braves agreed to a one-year, $900K deal with southpaw Grant Dayton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Dayton had a 2.30 ERA over 27 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • The Braves announced an agreement with utilityman Johan Camargo on a one-year, $1.36MM deal.  Camargo was thought to be a non-tender candidate after struggling to a .222/.267/.378 slash line in 375 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but he will return for a fifth year in Atlanta.
  • The White Sox and left-hander Jace Fry agreed to a one-year deal worth $862.5K, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Fry posted a 3.66 ERA, 2.00 K/BB rate, and 11.0 K/9 over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, and he has strong overall career numbers against left-handed batters.
  • The Orioles agreed with second baseman Yolmer Sanchez on a one-year deal worth $1MM, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Baltimore claimed Sanchez off waivers from the White Sox at the end of October.  A Gold Glove winner in 2019, Sanchez was non-tendered by Chicago prior to last year’s deadline, though after signing a minors deal with the Giants, he returned to the White Sox on another minors deal and appeared in 11 games on the South Side.
  • The Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth roughly $700K with left-hander Caleb Thielbar, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports (via Twitter).  2020 marked Thielbar’s first taste of MLB action since 2015, as the southpaw worked his way back from independent ball to post a 2.25 ERA, 2.44 K/BB rate, and 9.9 K/9 over 20 innings for Minnesota.
  • The Dodgers and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Alexander posted a 2.92 ERA over 12 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen this season, recording an equal number of walks and strikeouts (nine).  The southpaw was thought to be a potential non-tender candidate given his relative lack of usage and his non-inclusion on the Dodgers’ playoff roster, but the team will retain Alexander for his second arb-eligible year.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) adds the noteworthy detail that Alexander’s $1MM salary is fully guaranteed, as opposed to the usual contracts for arbitration-eligible players that allow their teams to release them prior to Opening Day and only pay a fraction of the agreed-upon salary.

Astros Interested In Robbie Ray, Matt Barnes

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With a pitching staff ravaged by injuries, it isn’t any surprise that the Astros are exploring adding some hurlers at the deadline.  Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) report that two of Houston’s targets include Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray and Red Sox reliever Matt Barnes.

Ray has been a popular figure in trade rumors for a couple of years, and the most recent round of speculation has had some teams interested in acquiring him as a relief pitcher due to his rough performance in 2020.  Over seven starts, Ray has a 7.84 ERA in 31 innings, due in large part to a 2.6 HR/9 and a major loss of control — Ray has a league-leading 31 walks and six wild pitches.  It’s possible Houston could be one of the teams eyeing Ray as a reliever, perhaps the team feels it can fix his control problems and again turn him into a solid starter.

Barnes has also had a tough go of it this season, and for some of the same reasons as Ray.  Barnes has a 6.00 ERA over 12 IP out of Boston’s pen, with a 2.3 HR/9 and a career-worst 6.8 BB/9.  As per Fangraphs, only 3.2% of Barnes’ offerings have resulted in soft contact this season, as he has a 45.2% hard-hit ball rate and 51.6% medium-hit rate.

The common element between the two pitchers is a lot of missed bats.  Ray has a 12.5 K/9 this season and a 12.1 K/9 since the start of the 2017 season; in that same timeframe, Barnes has a 13.2 K/9, which includes an 11.3 K/9 in 2020.  After ranking at or near the top of the league in strikeouts from 2017-19, Astros pitchers have combined for an 8.64 K/9 this season, ranked 21st of 30 teams.

Ray is a free agent after the season, while Barnes has one more year of arbitration eligibility before hitting the open market himself in the 2021-22 offseason.  This extra year of control might mean Barnes could actually have a higher trade value than Ray at this point, despite Ray’s ability to start games.  Astros GM James Click knows Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom well from their time together in the Rays front office, while Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen swung a very notable deal (the Zack Greinke blockbuster) with the Astros at least year’s deadline.

Red Sox Notes: Xander, Bloom, Barnes, Holt

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A clause in Xander Bogaerts’ six-year, $120MM contract extension with the Red Sox will allow the shortstop to gain full no-trade protection once he reaches seven full years of service time.  With the 2020 season’s prorated service time calendar in mind, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently observed that Bogaerts will hit that seven-year threshold on September 6, leaving Rosenthal wondering whether the Sox could accelerate their rebuild by offering Bogaerts prior to the August 31 trade deadline.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom didn’t completely dismiss the concept of a Bogaerts trade during a recent appearance on WEEI’s Greg Hill Show (hat tip to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford), though that was because, as Bloom noted, “philosophically, I would never want to come out and just unequivocally say somebody is untouchable.”  Even if Bogaerts isn’t officially “untouchable,” Bloom stressed that “Xander is a core player for us….I don’t think we’re doing our job if we’re not listening, but it doesn’t mean that it’s something we’re trying to do by any stretch.”

In regards to Bogaerts’ impending acquisition of no-trade rights, Bloom said “I don’t think something like that would change our approach here….I know that news has been out there but it’s not something that is at front of mind for us in terms of how we’re approaching the deadline.”

More from Fenway Park…

  • Matt Barnes could be a much likelier trade candidate for the Sox, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that Barnes was a popular target for rival teams both at last year’s deadline and in the offseason.  The Red Sox weren’t ready to move Barnes in July 2019 but could be more open to the concept now; Boston has already dealt two relievers and seem to be going into at least a mini-rebuild or reload in advance of the 2021 campaign.  Barnes might now get some save chances with Brandon Workman gone, both because Barnes is the logical next man up as closer and perhaps due to the team’s desire to showcase Barnes prior to the deadline.
  • After the Brewers designated Brock Holt for assignment earlier today, speculation immediately arose among Boston fans that the longtime fan favorite could be a fit to return to the Sox roster.  Speier threw some cold water on that speculation, however, noting that adding a veteran like Holt would run counter to the the team’s desire to get a look at younger players who could be longer-term pieces.
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