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Matt Chapman

The A’s Draft Gamble That Paid Off

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The A’s have built a pair of reigning playoff teams, a much-welcome return to relevancy after three consecutive last place finishes from 2015-17. Recently, they’ve been anchored by a perhaps still-underrated superstar. Over the past two seasons, Matt Chapman has hit .263/.348/.507 (131 wRC+) with 60 home runs in 1286 plate appearances. More notably, he’s proven himself a wizard at third base, racking up an absurd 68 defensive runs saved. With his achievements on both sides of the ball, Chapman has been worth 12.8 fWAR/16.6 bWAR in the last two seasons alone. Baseball Reference’s value metric places him as the third-most valuable position player in that time (behind only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts). Fangraphs slots him sixth, with Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich and Anthony Rendon joining Trout and Betts in the top five.

Regardless of where specifically one would slot Chapman among the game’s best players, it’s apparent he’s at least in the conversation. Given the player he’s become, it’d be easy to assume he was seen as a ’can’t-miss’ talent dating back to his amateur days. That’s not really the case. He was the A’s first-round pick back in 2014, 25th overall. At the time, though, that pick could’ve been considered a bit of a reach, at least in comparison to public rankings.

Neither Baseball America nor MLB Pipeline had Chapman in their top 50 prospects pre-draft (BA slotted him 64th, while Pipeline placed him 82nd). Nor did he crack the top 30 of then-ESPN analysts Keith Law and Christopher Crawford the fall prior. That’s not meant to be a criticism of draft prognosticators. Despite his frame, Chapman never showed much power in games as an amateur. He hit a cumulative 13 home runs over his three years at Cal State Fullerton. It’s hardly surprising evaluators didn’t see a future 36-homer bat in the big leagues.

Questions about Chapman’s hitting prowess were prevalent enough that both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline pointed to pitching as a potential fallback. The elite arm strength he now shows off at the hot corner in Oakland helped him touch 98 MPH on the mound in college. While the consensus was that Chapman should be a given a shot in pro ball at third, where reviews on him defensively were always positive, it wasn’t hard to imagine him flaming out and moving to the mound someday.

To the A’s credit, they never seemed to budge on their evaluation of him as a hitter. Asked about a potential mound conversion for Chapman after the draft, A’s scouting director Eric Kubota shot down the idea to Jimmy Durkin of the Bay Area News Group. “He’s got a chance to be an elite defender at third base,” Kubota told Durkin. “He can really throw. We think his bat is ever-improving. We think there’s untapped power there. We think this is a guy who is going to develop into a power hitter.”

Kubota’s words look awfully prescient in hindsight. Obviously, the organization’s belief in Chapman wasn’t shared throughout the league. There’s no chance he’d have fallen to pick 25 if it were. If teams were to redraft the 2014 class today, Chapman would no doubt be at the top of most teams’ boards. His emergence is a credit to the A’s scouting and player development staffs (and a testament to Chapman himself), an example of the ideal progression teams dream of when they bring a talented player into the system. It’s also a reminder that teams’ evaluations of draft prospects can vary, sometimes to their immense success.

MLBTR Poll: Third Base Building Blocks

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Major League Baseball boasts a high number of quality third basemen, evidenced in part by the fact that nine regulars at the position totaled at least 4.5 fWAR last season. The Athletics’ Matt Chapman and the Red Sox’s Rafael Devers finished in the top five in that category, and as players who are controllable for the foreseeable future and only in their 20s, they represent a pair of the top building blocks in the game. The question, though, is which player you’d rather have going forward.

The easy answer (or so it seems) is Chapman, whose career production has trounced Devers’ since the two debuted in 2017. Not only is he a defensive wizard, but Chapman can flat-out hit. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s all-around excellence had led to 15.5 fWAR thus far, including back-to-back seasons of 6.0 fWAR or better. He’s now coming off a career-best campaign as a power hitter in 2019, when he batted .249/.342/.506 (125 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 670 plate appearances.

Chapman still has four years of team control left, including one more pre-arb season (that’s if there is MLB in 2020). The same goes for Devers, so the two are even in that regard. As mentioned, Chapman’s output has crushed Devers’ in the aggregate. However, Devers closed the gap a season ago with a 5.9-fWAR showing, and he’s also several years younger than Chapman. Devers, who won’t even turn 24 until October, was roughly a league-average offensive player from 2017-18, but the proverbial light bulb went on last season during a .311/.361/.555 effort (132 wRC+) in which he slugged 32 homers over 702 PA.

Devers has nothing on Chapman at third – the former put up minus-10 DRS and plus-2.7 UZR last year; the latter recorded an otherworldly plus-34 DRS and plus-14.8 UZR – but they’re close in terms of offensive prowess. And Devers is so much younger than Chapman that it’s hard not to take that into consideration when comparing the two. Going by fWAR, Chapman was the third-most valuable third baseman in baseball in 2019. Devers was fourth. You can’t lose with either player, but all things considered, whom would you rather have heading into the future?

(Poll link for app users)

Matt Chapman Hoping for Extension

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The stellar left side of the Athletics’ infield might not stay intact for much longer. Shortstop Marcus Semien is due to reach free agency next offseason. The two sides have shown interest in an extension, but nothing has come together thus far. There’s less pressure to lock up third baseman Matt Chapman, who won’t be eligible to reach free agency until after 2023. However, Chapman’s hoping for a long-term deal all the same, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.

“I’ve been telling them: I’m ready. If the offer’s right, I’m willing to sign with the A’s,” Chapman told Slusser. “I want to be here.”

Talks on a new contract haven’t occurred recently, Chapman informed Slusser, but he noted, “Usually those things pick up more in spring training.”

To this point, Oakland hasn’t signed anyone to a larger guarantee than the $66MM pact it handed one of its former third basemen, Eric Chavez, in 2004. They’ll need to pony up far more for Chapman if they’re going to keep him under wraps for the foreseeable future.

The 25th overall pick of the A’s in 2014, Chapman has emerged as one of the foremost players in baseball since he debuted in the majors in 2017, owing to a combination of defensive wizardry and terrific offense. Going back to 2018, Chapman’s first full season, just five players (a group you may have heard of in Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich and Anthony Rendon) have outdone Chapman’s 12.8 fWAR. He batted .263/.348/.507 with 60 home runs over 1,286 plate appearances during that span, and the two-time Platinum Glove winner ranked first in baseball in Defensive Runs Saved (47) and third in Ultimate Zone Rating (25.7).

Chapman’s clearly either a complete player or close to it, so it should be a boon for the A’s that he doesn’t want to play for another team. It remains to be seen whether low-budget Oakland will pay the necessary amount for the superstar Scott Boras client, but moving into a new stadium in the near future – which is the A’s goal – would help matters.

Latest On A’s Extension Possibilities

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With third baseman Matt Chapman and shortstop Marcus Semien, the left side of the Athletics’ infield is among the most productive in baseball. The fact that the two combine to make less than $6MM (almost all of which belongs to Semien) only adds to their appeal from the low-budget Athletics’ perspective. But their days of earning relatively meager salaries might not last for much longer. Both players are candidates for contract extensions, though Semien will reach free agency after next season if nothing comes together between him and Oakland in the meantime.

To this point, the A’s haven’t handed out a longer or richer contract than the six-year, $66MM extension they signed third baseman Eric Chavez to entering the 2004 campaign. They now have a new standout at the hot corner in Chapman, a Scott Boras client who could eventually unseat Chavez as the recipient of the biggest deal in team history. It’s “believed” the Athletics are considering making Chapman an offer for longer than the one Chavez signed 15 years ago, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

Fortunately for the Athletics, there’s no imminent danger of losing Chapman. The 26-year-old isn’t even slated to reach arbitration for the first time until after 2020, and once he does, he’ll still be controllable for three seasons. Nevertheless, though, the A’s may want to get out in front of the arbitration process with Chapman. After all, he has burst out as one of the most valuable players in the sport over the past couple seasons, combining defensive virtuosity with marvelous offense.

Dating back to last year, his first full season in the majors, Chapman has slashed .267/.347/.506 (130 wRC+) with 51 home runs in 1,116 plate appearances. His 10.7 fWAR in that span ranks seventh among all position players, putting him just behind Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon – a pending free agent who could collect a payday in the $150MM range in the offseason.

Considering the disparate points they’re at in their careers, Chapman obviously doesn’t have the earning power of Rendon. Depending on the length of the deal, though, Chapman could come within shouting distance of nine figures. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd posited last October that a seven-year, $80MM commitment might not have been out of reach on an extension, and that was before Chapman’s second straight overwhelmingly successful season.

Semien, 29 next month, has joined Chapman in emerging as an integral Athletic in the past couple years. By FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, Semien was a slightly below league-average offensive producer from 2013-18, but the former White Sox infielder has found another gear this season. He’s hitting .273/.359/.469 (122 wRC+) with 19 HRs through 551 trips to the plate. Between his improved offense and quality defense, Semien has accounted for a personal-best 4.6 fWAR thus far. He’ll absolutely earn a solid raise in arbitration during the winter, but perhaps the Athletics will lock him up before it comes to that. Having just switched representation last week, he told Slusser his goal is to stick with the A’s for the long haul.

“That’s always been a big want for our family,” Semien said. “We’re extremely happy living here year round — that’s what anyone would want. And this team is such an amazing group to be around. Everyone talks about how bad the stadium is but when you have a group of guys you enjoy being around, that doesn’t matter.”

Oakland previously tried to extend Semien at the beginning of the 2017 season, when he would’ve come much cheaper. But the club wasn’t willing to match the six-year, $25MM guarantee the White Sox awarded shortstop Tim Anderson around the same time, according to Slusser. No agreement materialized as a result, and that may not change going forward, as Slusser writes “it’s hard to imagine” the A’s giving Semien a contract worth that much more than Chavez’s. It seems a long-term accord for Chapman is the bigger priority for the team.

AL Notes: O’s, Davis, Yanks, Torres, A’s, M. Chapman

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A quick look around the American League…

  • Not only did Baltimore drop an embarrassing 14-2 decision to New York on Wednesday, but there was an all-too-public dugout altercation between struggling Orioles first baseman Chris Davis and manager Brandon Hyde during the game (video via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). Orioles hitting coach Don Long and injured slugger Mark Trumbo had to restrain Davis, whom the O’s then removed for a pinch-hitter. Hyde didn’t want to go into detail about it afterward, telling Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and other reporters that the team will “keep it in-house.” He didn’t seem overly concerned about the matter, though, chalking it up to frustrations boiling over during what has been an adverse season. Davis wasn’t available for comment.
  • Second baseman Gleyber Torres was not in the lineup for the Yankees’ latest win, but the club’s not planning to put him on the injured list, per George A. King III of the New York Post. Although Torres exited the Yankees’ victories Sunday and Tuesday because of core issues, tests on the 22-year-old didn’t reveal anything serious, manager Aaron Boone said. Torres underwent an MRI for a sports hernia and other strains Wednesday, but no cause for his recent problems was discovered.
  • Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman has collected two hits and 19 strikeouts in his last 47 at-bats, perhaps because he’s dealing with knee and ankle issues. Chapman has been battling soreness in those spots, manager Bob Melvin revealed Wednesday (via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). The superstar exited a game early with left ankle soreness on July 18, at which point he was slashing .279/.363/.522 on the season. Now, thanks to his ice-cold stretch, Chapman’s hitting .252/.340/.504.

AL Notes: Astros, Tribe, Kluber, Mondesi, M. Chapman, Twins

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The Astros had interest in trading for catcher Martin Maldonado before the Cubs acquired him from the Royals on Monday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Maldonado was a pre-deadline pickup for Houston last July, when it acquired him from the division-rival Angels, but the Astros’ attempt to re-sign him during the offeason failed. The Astros then brought in free agent Robinson Chirinos, who has been their No. 1 backstop all year but has slumped of late. Chirinos is a better hitter than Maldonado, but the latter is far and away the superior defender. Astros backup catcher Max Stassi is another defense-first option, though he’s having a much worse season at the plate than Maldonado. For Houston, re-acquiring Maldonado could have brought about the end of the out-of-options Stassi’s time on its 40-man roster.

More on a few other American League clubs…

  • Indians ace Corey Kluber’s recovery from the fractured right forearm he suffered May 1 took a significant step Wednesday, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. Kluber threw an all-fastball, 20-pitch bullpen session – his first since incurring the injury – without any issues. “Everybody came out smiling,” manager Terry Francona said. Kluber will throw a bullpen again Sunday, though there’s still no timetable for his return to the majors. Despite having to deal with long-term absences of Kluber and fellow rotation stalwarts Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger this season, the Indians are 54-40 and tied for the AL’s second wild-card spot.
  • Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi went to the injured list with a left shoulder subluxation Wednesday. Fortunately, the injury isn’t as severe as Mondesi initially feared, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star tweets. With that said, it remains unknown how much time the 23-year-old cornerstone will miss. A former stud prospect, Mondesi has developed into an untouchable major leaguer for the Royals, having combined passable offense with plus defense and excellent base running since a breakout 2018.
  • Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman left their win over the Mariners on Wednesday with left ankle soreness, Oakland announced. Chapman is day-to-day, Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. Winners of eight of 10 and tied with Cleveland for the AL’s second wild-card position, the A’s are rolling thanks in part to Chapman, who’s enjoying another superstar-caliber campaign. The 26-year-old has torched the opposition for a .279/.363/.552 batting line with 22 home runs and 4.2 fWAR over 405 plate appearances in 2019.
  • The Twins designated reliever Mike Morin for assignment Tuesday, which came as somewhat of a surprise considering the 3.18 ERA and .79 BB/9 the right-hander has posted in 22 2/3 innings this season. Manager Rocco Baldelli admitted it was a “very difficult” decision to jettison Morin, who did “his job very well” (via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). With 37 players on their 40-man roster after Morin’s DFA, the Twins “will almost certainly” select a reliever from the minors (recent pickups Cody Allen and Carlos Torres are among the candidates) or acquire one via trade to replace him.

Latest On Athletics’ Extension Talks

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After locking up Khris Davis on a three-year extension in April, the Athletics have continued to look into long-term deals with some of their key players.  The A’s have approached Marcus Semien on multiple occasions about an extension, though Semien tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that there haven’t been any recent talks between the two sides.  Beyond Semien, Slusser notes that the A’s have also explored multi-year contracts with Matt Chapman and Matt Olson.

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard about Oakland’s interest in keeping any of these players, and it seems likely that negotiations will continue on an on-and-off basis for some time to come.  Both Chapman and Olson are controlled through the 2023 season, and while Semien can be a free agent after the 2020 season, it could be that talks with the shortstop simply paused once the season began, as most players prefer to save contractual business for the offseason.

Both Chapman and his agent, Scott Boras, recently discussed the possibility of an extension with Slusser in separate editions of the “A’s Plus” podcast.  Boras, as you might expect, took a slightly more bottom-line approach, noting that discussions with the A’s carry something of an extra hurdle.  “Oakland is in a place where they have a lot of promise that requires definition, that requires sureties that they’re going to have a stadium,” Boras said.  Nonetheless, the agent also said that “We keep our ears open and listen and talk to ownership regularly about” a long-term deal between Chapman and the team.

For his part, Chapman wants a deal that “has to be fair for both sides,” though he reiterated his desire to remain in Oakland over the long term.  “I do want to be a part of this team and I would love to be extended and play a long time….Hopefully, we can get something done,” the third baseman said.

The Davis contract represented Oakland’s first extension in quite some time, as the team focused on something of a rebuild on the fly to amass a new group of talent.  After the 2017 season, however, Billy Beane said the A’s would now start to look at identifying and then extending the true core members of the roster going forward.

Athletics Notes: Chapman, Murray, Ballpark, Olson

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The Athletics announced an extension yesterday with slugger Khris Davis — the club’s first in five years. That’s the big news, but there’s more to cover out of Oakland …

  • If the A’s had their way, they’d probably already have made at least one additional long-term investment. The club has tried to lock down third baseman Matt Chapman in the past to no avail; he has only continued to boost his value in the meantime. But he says he’s interested in remaining with the A’s “for a long time,” as Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Interestingly, Chapman cites the Davis contract as “a step in the right direction” for his own situation. Whether a deal comes together, he says, “is out of [his] control.”
  • In a recent profile of superstar quarterback Kyler Murray, who just so happens to have previously signed a contract to join the A’s, SI’s Robert Klemko covers plenty of topics of general interest. From a hot stove perspective, though, there’s one nugget of particular interest: per Klemko, the Oakland ballclub dangled an additional $14MM contract to keep Murray from heading to the NFL. That offer evidently was made in January as Murray was pondering whether to declare for the draft (which he ultimately did). The A’s would have added that sum on top of the $4.66MM they had already promised him. While there’s no evident path to a deal at this point, now that Murray has positioned himself as the likely top overall pick in the NFL draft, it’s a fascinating number to contemplate — with multi-faceted connections to the valuation of amateur talent, the evaluation of recent extensions signed by current MLB players, and the willingness of MLB teams to sacrifice draft picks (when you consider the huge risk that the A’s took — and were willing to double down on — for a talented but still undeveloped player).
  • That cash is small potatoes compared to the still-uncertain stadium situation in Oakland. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted yesterday, there has been a notable recent development. Alameda County has lined up a deal with the team to sell the municipality’s ownership interest in the O.co Coliseum site to the A’s, with a vote scheduled for tomorrow to approve. That’s part of the club’s recently announced plan to build a new park on another site while redeveloping its current home. (That idea arose after prior plans were scuttled.)
  • Focusing on the immediate roster needs, the A’s are surely anxious to get Matt Olson’s bat back in the lineup. The first bagger’s injured hand seems to be on the mend; as manager Bob Melvin told reporters including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle, via Twitter, Olson was able to take cuts off a tee for the first time today. That’s a promising development, though there’ll be further hurdles to clear before Olson is ready to make it back to the MLB roster.

AL West Notes: Encarnacion, Ohtani, Athletics, Davidson

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Veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion is expected to open camp with the Mariners after trade talks surrounding him failed to gain traction, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is expected to continue exploring potential deals over the course of Spring Training as needs arise throughout the league, he notes. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote over the weekend that interest in Encarnacion had faded. Encarnacion, among the game’s steadiest sluggers, has one year remaining on his three-year, $60MM contract and is almost certainly limited to American League clubs at this point of his career. An injury to a contender’s DH this spring could create some additional interest in Encarnacion, but a trade at this juncture doesn’t seem all that likely.

More from the division…

  • Angels manager Brad Ausmus addressed the health of right-hander/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani today (Twitter link via Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group). While Ausmus didn’t want to get too specific in terms of providing a timeline for Ohtani’s return to the club following Tommy John surgery, the first-year Halos skipper indicated that the team expects Ohtani back at some point in May. He’ll be strictly limited to DH duties, of course, and it’s not yet clear exactly how often the Angels plan to get Ohtani’s bat into the lineup in the early stages of his recovery. One can imagine that the team will want to be particularly cautious, but the Angels will also want Ohtani in the lineup as often as possible after he hit .285/.361/.564 with 22 homers in just 367 plate appearances last season.
  • Matt Chapman underwent thumb and shoulder surgeries this offseason, but the budding Athletics star looks to be on track for the season, writes Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Chapman took 50 swings in a batting cage Monday, and while he might be limited early in camp, the expectation is that he’ll be ready for the season opener. Perhaps more interesting, Slusser writes in another column that the organization has “no qualms” about putting top prospect Jesus Luzardo in the rotation on Opening Day if he’s deemed the best option. If that is indeed the organization’s stance, it’s a departure from the manner in which many clubs think. Luzardo, just 21, is considered to be among the game’s most elite pitching prospects, ranking inside the game’s 20 best all-around prospects on multiple publications. Last year, at just 20 years old, he skyrocketed from Class-A Advanced to Triple-A, working to a combined 2.88 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over the course of 109 1/3 innings. Presently, the A’s will have Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada and Brett Anderson (assuming he passes his physical) in the rotation, with a pair of spots up for grabs, barring further additions.
  • Infielder Matt Davidson chatted with MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan about his role with the Rangers this coming season. Davidson, signed as a corner infielder/reliever, indicated that he’s not expecting to be one of the team’s top seven or eight relievers. Rather, he’s aiming to be an option to pitch in the same capacity he did with the White Sox last year — as a mop-up reliever in blowout games. “I want to be the pitchers’ best friend,” said Davidson. “Nobody wants to go in when it is a 7-0 blowout. I want to be the guy that helps them out.” Davidson did toss three shutout innings last season, and it’s not out of the question entirely that he pitches more effectively than some would expect if given a few more opportunities. However, it sounds as if the early plan is for him to try to make the club as a bench piece and emergency option on the mound more than any type of regular bullpen piece.

AL West Notes: Angels, Eppler, Chapman, Lewis

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Some rumblings from around the AL West…

  • “We are a point where we feel complete with our club,” Angels GM Billy Eppler tells MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, as the Halos feels they made enough short-term additions to be able to compete in 2019.  The club was cautious about not dealing any of its top prospects from a farm system that has undergone a major rebuild in recent years, and Los Angeles didn’t splurge on any long-term free agent commitments.  That said, the Angels’ focus on short-term signings “wasn’t scripted,” as Eppler put it.  “There were some players that we engaged on and made offers to that would’ve been multi-year commitments.  Those didn’t work out for a couple different reasons.  But shorter-term deals work in a variety of ways — they keep you flexible, and they keep you open to doing things both during the season and in succeeding seasons.”  Some type of a reload was necessary for the team, given both the sorry state of the Angels’ minor league pipeline just a few years ago and the number of ill-fated big contracts that didn’t pan out.  Still, the Angels are on something of a clock to get back into contention, given that Mike Trout is only under contract for two more seasons.
  • Matt Chapman provided an update on his health status in the wake of offseason thumb and shoulder surgery, telling reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser) that he’ll be in the lineup when the Athletics begin their season on March 20 in Tokyo.  The third baseman could miss a few early Spring Training games as he recovers, however, noting “it’s hard to say when everything will be a full go.”  Chapman expressed some regret at waiting until December to undergo his shoulder procedure, as he said the joint was giving him some discomfort during the season but he thought some downtime would correct the issue.  While the A’s will certainly be cautious about their star during the spring, it doesn’t yet seem Chapman is in any danger of missing any regular season action.
  • Outfield prospect Kyle Lewis was invited to the Mariners’ big league Spring Training camp, a positive development for Lewis after an injury-plagued start to his pro career, TJ Cotterill writes for Baseball America.  The 11th overall pick of the 2016 draft, Lewis has already undergone two knee surgeries, limiting him to just 711 plate appearances and 165 games over two-plus seasons.  These injuries and a not-unrelated relative lack of production (.258/.328/.430 slash line in the minors) have caused Lewis’ prospect stock to drop, though the 23-year-old is entering a season healthy for the first time.  “He’s missed so much time, but we feel better today than we’ve ever felt with his work and his progress.  Most of us who have been around Kyle, we really don’t have a lot of concern about the ability. It’s the health,” Mariners farm director Andy McKay said.
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