- In an interview with Andre Fernandez of The Athletic (subscription required), Marlins manager Don Mattingly once again indicated he’d like to manage the club in 2020. But if a new agreement between Mattingly, whose contract is set to expire, and the Marlins doesn’t come together after the season, he’ll be willing to go elsewhere. Mattingly said it’s his “mindset” to manage someplace in 2020, whether it’s Miami or another MLB city. The 58-year-old is in his fourth season in Miami, and though the win-loss results haven’t been pretty, Mattingly’s respected enough to potentially end up on other teams’ radars if the Marlins don’t retain him.
Marlins Rumors
Garrett Cooper Likely Done For 2019
- Marlins first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper isn’t likely to return this season, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio reports. The 28-year-old jammed his knee Friday, and though Mish notes it isn’t serious, the bottom-feeding Marlins don’t need to risk running Cooper out again this season. An ice-cold August has driven down Cooper’s numbers this year, but he has nonetheless been one of the hitter-needy Marlins’ top offensive players in 2019, having batted .281/.344/.446 with 15 HRs across 421 trips to the plate.
Marlins Claim Josh Smith
The Miami Marlins have claimed left-handed pitcher Josh Smith off waivers from the Indians., per an official team announcement. The 29-year-old Smith, who made eight appearances for the Indians this year, will join his new team on Monday, while infielder JT Riddle has been transferred to the 60-day injured list. Smith had been designated for assignment yesterday.
While a 29-year-old rookie is certainly not a headline-grabbing acquisition, Smith does offer some intrigue beneath the surface. And for a Marlins team that needs talent from wherever it can be had, this has the potential to be an interesting addition. It’s a low-cost tryout for player that could turn into a fine reliever.
In his eighth year as a professional, Smith is enjoying arguably his best minor-league season since the Pirates made him their 25th-round draft choice in 2012. This year, he’s shredding Triple-A hitters, striking out an average of 12.6 batters per nine innings, en route to a 2.43 ERA.
He’s yet to translate those results into success at the big-league level, as he has surrendered five runs in his first 8 1/3 innings of work. However, it’s been just a handful of games, and he’s managed to strike out 12 batters in that same span. Smith’s flyball tendencies and a high LOB% in the minors might lead to some early struggles in the Majors, but the Marlins will look to mitigate those concerns and tap into an attractive high-strikeout profile that has produced a 22.7 K-BB% in the minors.
Marlins Considering Management Changes
- Meanwhile in Miami, Don Mattingly may have priced himself out of a job. Rosenthal suggests finances could be a primary motivator in deciding whether to return Mattingly to his role as Miami’s field manager beyond 2019. Regardless of performance, keeping Mattingly at his current price sounds like a no-go for the cost-conscious ownership group. Perhaps of even more consequence, there are rumblings that Michael Hill will be removed from his position as President of Baseball Ops, a title he’s held since a being promoted from GM in 2013. Hill has been with the organization since 2002. Scuttlebutt has long-time Giants front office frontman Brian Sabean as a potential replacement, while current Marlins VP of Player Development and Scouting Gary Denbo has be increasingly relied upon of late. Notably, both Sabean and Denbo have ties to Derek Jeter’s early days with the Yankees.
Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL East
It has only been a little over five weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.
So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, and AL East; now we’ll go to the National League East …
Braves
There was an argument for the Braves to consider rotation and even outfield improvements at the trade deadline, but the club ultimately focused on the bullpen after the mid-June signing of Dallas Keuchel. Otherwise, the club swung just one other deal, a minor swap of cash for catching depth in the form of John Ryan Murphy.
So, what about those relievers? The club picked up Chris Martin (link), Shane Greene (link), and Mark Melancon (link). That seemed like a sturdy trio, but each got off to an exceptionally rocky start. Thankfully, things have stabilized. Martin sports a 15:1 K/BB rate in Atlanta; Melancon sits at 20:2 and hasn’t yet blown a save in nine chances (though it may not seem that way). Greene gave up a pair of runs in his last outing, but that broke a 13-appearance scoreless streak.
On the other side of the coin, the price paid never figured to hurt the Braves too badly, as they largely parted with upper-level pieces that were stacked behind other prospects. If there’s one that could hurt, it may be Joey Wentz, who posted a 37:4 K/BB ratio while allowing just six earned runs in 25 2/3 innings with the Tigers’ Double-A affiliate after coming over in the Greene trade. Utilityman Travis Demeritte, who went with him, has struggled in brief MLB action. The Martin swap cost another young left, Kolby Allard, who has put a shine on a solid overall campaign by running a 3.78 ERA over six big league starts. He’s succeeding largely by limiting the long ball, which may not be fully sustainable, but his stuff has trended up noticeably since his brief debut last year with Atlanta. Tristan Beck, the key piece in the Melancon swap, has generated good results at the High-A level since the deal.
So, what about the possible needs in other areas? The starting staff has continued to be an internal operation (including Keuchel). While it’s not exactly an ace-laden outfit, the Braves do have plenty of depth and will likely plan to stack pitching in the postseason rather than hoping for lengthy starts. Position-player depth has been an issue, but the club has managed to find solutions by being one of the most aggressive accumulators of players in September. Minor-league signings and claims brought the team Adeiny Hechavarria, Billy Hamilton, and Francisco Cervelli. While it’s certainly arguable the Braves could or should have made at least one more significant addition, the overall approach of supplementing the existing roster has certainly not prevented the team from performing at an impressive level of late.
Nationals
The D.C. organization pursued something like a Braves-lite strategy, landing its own trio of relief arms but doing so at another tier lower than did the division leaders. Southpaw Roenis Elias (link) and righties Daniel Hudson (link) and Hunter Strickland (link) all arrived on deadline day to buttress a bullpen that has been a source of turnover and turmoil all season long.
Elias was arguably the biggest piece of the three, but has contributed the least due to injury. It’s an unlucky break, though the Nats still can salvage value from the deal by tendering him a contract for the next two seasons to come. The two right-handers have become important pieces in the late-inning mix of the rightly maligned Washington relief corps. Hudson owns a 2.40 ERA in 15 frames, with 9.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9; Strickland is sitting at a 4.40 ERA over 14 1/3 innings, with 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. They’ve each allowed three home runs.
Securing the services of Elias meant sending Elvis Alvarado and Taylor Guilbeau to Seattle. The control problems of the former disappeared in a dozen-inning rookie ball stint after the trade, so perhaps the Seattle staff helped him figure something out. Gilbeau, 26, has earned his first time in the majors. In eight innings, the southpaw has been tough on lefties (.176/.263/.294) while being knocked around a bit by righties (.267/.353/.467). Another young lefty went to Seattle in the Strickland deal. Aaron Fletcher has thrown 13 innings of 3.46 ERA ball with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 13 Double-A innings. Adding Hudson cost 23-year-old Kyle Johnston, whose solid High-A numbers have tanked since the swap. He carries a brutal 13:20 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings with the new organization.
Add it all up, and the Nats can’t be terribly displeased … but also haven’t been overwhelmingly boosted by their mid-season additions. Indications are that the club was working under tight payroll constraints this summer, so that’s to be expected. Fortunately, infielder Asdrubal Cabrera came cheap. He has been aflame since being signed as a September free agent. The club is still in very good position for the Wild Card, but has to wonder how far it will be able to advance with such an unreliable relief unit.
Phillies
After adding Jay Bruce earlier in the summer, the Phillies probably wanted to improve their pitching. But they didn’t end up matching their rivals in that regard — not even close, in fact.
Outfielder Corey Dickerson was the team’s biggest addition in the run-up to the deadline, in fact. The primary cost was his remaining salary, with the club also agreeing to send the cross-state Pirates some international bonus capacity and a PTBNL. Dickerson may not even have been added had it not been for Bruce’s health issues. It has turned out to be wise move, as Dickerson carries a .300/.313/.592 batting line through 134 plate appearances.
Taking on money was also a driver in the Jason Vargas deal. The veteran southpaw has taken the ball eight times for the Phillies, managing a 5.01 ERA over 41 1/3 innings with a 1.63 K/BB ratio. That’s a downgrade from the results he posted with the Mets before the trade — 4.01 ERA with 2.08 K/BB ratio — though he’s much the same pitcher by most measures.
Those moves have certainly helped the Phils hang in the Wild Card race, though the club could obviously have stood to make greater improvements. Minor deals for Mike Morin, Jose Pirela, and Dan Straily haven’t delivered a ton of benefit. Morin has seen 21 innings of action but owns a 5.14 ERA. Pirela has seen limited action in the majors, while Straily hasn’t been asked onto the 40-man roster.
Much like their competitors in the division, the Phils have made several additions by signing released players or placing post-deadline claims. Those methods have brought in Drew Smyly, Blake Parker, Nick Vincent, Logan Morrison, and Jared Hughes to help keep things afloat. While more significant reinforcements surely would’ve been preferred, the organization just wasn’t willing to pay what it would have cost.
Mets
The most surprising deadline approach came from New York, with the Mets deciding to chase dwindling postseason aspirations. While the organization was rewarded with an inspired run of play, it still seems likely the club will fall short of its goal.
It seemed as the deadline drew nigh that the Mets would function as sellers. Zack Wheeler was an obvious trade piece, with a variety of other veterans also possibilities to move. Instead, the club pursued a stunning swap for local product Marcus Stroman while sending Vargas to the Phils to help offset the cash.
Parting with Vargas hasn’t hurt, though it was curious to see him go to a division rival. Trouble is, Stroman hasn’t been any better. He’s carrying a 5.05 ERA in 35 2/3 frames. While he’s surely a better bet going forward than the aging lefty, Stroman will need to rein in the number of balls leaving the yard (1.8 per nine since the deal). Adding Stroman meant that the Mets ponied up another chunk of young talent from a farm that had already parted with key pieces. Most analysts felt the cost — Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson — was rather reasonable, though both hurlers have trended up since joining their new organization.
The real head-scratcher in all of this was that the Mets stopped with only the addition of Stroman. He was and is a piece with 2020 value as well, of course, but the club left its bullpen entirely unimproved. The club did go on to add Brad Brach as well as second bagger Joe Panik when they came available in September. Brodie Van Wagenen’s first trade deadline will be an interesting one to revisit down the line.
Marlins
It was a low-key fascinating trade period for the Fish. Not because they made sell-side moves — that was obvious — but because they ended up shipping out young talent.
It all got started innocently enough, as rental reliever Sergio Romo was sent to the Twins in a deal that netted first baseman Lewin Diaz. The youngster’s batting average and OBP dove with his new club, but he is still showing good power at Double-A. Unfortunately, the deal also cost the Fish 22-year-old righty Chris Vallimont. He had put up solid numbers all season long and finished with a bang, posting a 28:4 K/BB ratio and 3.63 ERA over 22 1/3 High-A innings.
It might have been supposed that the Marlins would try to spin off a few other veterans, with Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson among the short-term players that could hypothetically have been moved. Instead, the Miami club turned to cashing in controllable MLB pitching for buy-low position-player prospects.
First came an intriguing intra-state deal. The Marlins parted with righties Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards in order to pick up young outfielder Jesus Sanchez and reliever Ryne Stanek. With Anderson dominating and Richards performing quite well, there could be some second-guessing here. Then again, Sanchez is a well-regarded young player. He slashed .246/.338/.446 in 78 plate appearances at Triple-A after the swap. That’s hardly a big showing in this year’s hot offensive environment, but it was an improvement over his work in the Rays organization and he’s still just 21 years of age.
At least as surprising was the deal that saw rookie righty Zac Gallen head to the D-Backs in exchange for Jazz Chisholm. Entering the season, this swap would’ve seemed ridiculous. But the two players involved headed in quite different directions. By the time the deal was struck, the former was in the midst of a breakout season, with the age and cheap control needed to serve as a part of a new core. But the Marlins elected to cash in his breakout to take a shot at the long-lauded Chisholm, who had shown big strikeout numbers at Double-A (33.8%). Gallen has continued to excel in Arizona, raising the stakes for Chisholm. But the 21-year-old shortstop did trend up after the move, paring back the Ks and slashing .284/.383/.494 (156 wRC+) in 94 plate appearances with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate.
It’s impossible to say how this slate of transactions will look in the long run, but it’ll be fun to track these intriguing deals from the rebuilding Marlins.
Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss
As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.
This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.
So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…
Castro before July:
- Groundball percentage: 52.2
- Fly ball percentage: 30.9
- Line drive percentage: 16.7
- Pull percentage: 40.8
- Infield fly percentage: 10.7
- Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1
Castro since:
- Groundball percentage: 43.9
- Flyball percentage: 33.3
- Line drive percentage: 22.7
- Pull percentage: 49.5
- Infield fly percentage: 7.6
- Hard-hit percentage: 43.4
All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.
Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Marlins, Mattingly Still Unsure About Future
- Expectations of a rough season for the Marlins have been fulfilled in full, though there have been some bright spots along the way. With relatively few trade pieces in the stable, it may be a fairly quiet offseason in Miami. But one area that is sure to receive attention is the coaching staff. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides some updates on the status of skipper Don Mattingly, who still hasn’t received any indication of the organization’s intentions. It seems that there’s a legitimate chance Mattingly will be retained, though the team may not want to pay him at or over his current $2.5MM salary. Plus, as the veteran baseball man notes, it’s not just a one-way street. Mattingly says he expects discussions to occur with some rapidity.
Outrighted: Castillo, Hart
These are the latest players to be outrighted after being designated for assignment …
- Marlins catcher Wilkin Castillo is headed back to the Triple-A roster after being outrighted, per the PCL transactions page. The 35-year-old had returned to the majors this season for the first time since 2009, though he only appeared in two contests. An exceptionally versatile player, Castillo has spent most of his professional career behind the dish but has also lined up at every other position on the field. (Only barely. Though he has five pitching appearances, Castillo has logged just one inning in center field.)
- The Mets outrighted southpaw Donnie Hart to their top affiliate after he cleared waivers, the International League transactions page reflects. Hart, who turns 29 tomorrow, has spent time this year with the Mets and Brewers. He previously appeared in parts of three seasons with the Orioles. While Hart carries a 3.13 ERA in 89 career MLB innings, that relies heavily upon his unsustainable debut showing (one earned run in 18 1/3 innings in 2016). Though he hasn’t been much of a strikeout pitcher in the big leagues, the soft-tossing lefty does have a career 54.1% groundball rate.
Marlins Announce Series Of Roster Moves
The Marlins announced Tuesday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander Brian Moran and catcher Tyler Heineman from Triple-A New Orleans. In order to open space on the 40-man roster, Miami transferred Brian Anderson from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list and designated catcher Wilkin Castillo for assignment. Additionally, outfielder Magneuris Sierra was recalled from New Orleans and added to the active roster.
Sierra, 23, will rejoin the club for the first time since the 2018 season. Acquired with Sandy Alcantara in the trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, it was hoped that he could serve as a long-term piece in the Miami outfield mix. That didn’t look to be the case by any stretch of the imagination in 2018 when Sierra batted just .190/.222/.211 in 156 big league plate appearances with the Marlins. His 2019 season in the minors has been better but not particularly impressive; in 549 trips to the plate between Double-A and Triple-A, Sierra has batted .275/.316/.387 with seven homers, 19 doubles, nine triples and 33 stolen bases (in 44 attempts).
This will be a big month for Sierra, who’ll be out of minor league options in 2020. That’s not to say he’s at jeopardy of losing his 40-man spot if he doesn’t show well in September, but a strong final impression in 2019 would surely improve his positioning for the 2020 campaign. Conversely, if he flounders in a similar fashion to his 2018 struggles, he’ll make it difficult for the organization to bank on any contributions from him next year.
Neither Heineman nor Moran seems like a long-term piece for the Marlins, but each will get his first look at the MLB level this month. Heineman, 28, was acquired from the D-backs in exchange for cash back in June. He’s batted a combined .336/.400/.590 in the Pacific Coast League’s supercharged offensive environment but has never hit much in four prior seasons at that level (most coming with the Astros, who drafted him in the eighth round back in 2012).
Moran will turn 31 later this month and has grinded through 10 minor league seasons leading up to today’s breakthrough to the Major Leagues. It’s undoubtedly an emotional day for the former Mariners farmhand, who has pitched to a 3.15 ERA with 11.6 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 in 60 innings of relief in New Orleans this season. Moran has spent parts of five seasons in Triple-A, compiling a 3.67 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 176 2/3 innings.
Anderson was already known to be done for the season after incurring a fractured hand last month. Miami’s best all-around player, the 26-year-old Anderson batted .261/.342/.468 with a career-high 20 home runs and 33 doubles in 520 plate appearances this year. He’s controlled all the way through the 2023 season and looks like a building block in South Florida.
Castillo, meanwhile, returned to the Majors in 2019 for the first time in a decade. He appeared in just two games but nonetheless was able to relish the bright lights of the Major Leagues after a long journey through the minors. Castillo has just 24 big league games to his credit, but the 35-year-old has played in 581 career Triple-A games, hitting .245/.283/.358 along the way.
Twins, Marlins Complete Sergio Romo Trade
TODAY: Per Craig Mish of FNTSY Radio, the trade has been finalized with the Marlins sending cash considerations to the Twins. It had been previously reported that Minnesota would receive a player to be named later in addition to Romo and Vallimont.
JULY 27, 8:21pm: Both teams have announced the trade.
7:48pm: Righty Chris Vallimont is the minor league pitcher going to Minnesota, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. They’re also getting a player to be named later, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports.
7:33pm: Romo is indeed going to the Twins, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The Twins are also getting a minor league pitcher, Joel Sherman of the New York Post relays. The Marlins will acquire first base prospect Lewin Diaz, according to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press.
7:28pm: The Twins are “deep into talks” to acquire Marlins reliever Sergio Romo, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. A deal’s likely to be completed.
The 36-year-old Romo served his purpose for the rebuilding Marlins, who signed him for $2.5MM in free agency last winter with the intent of eventually trading him. A former Giant, Dodger and Ray, the three-time world champion continued his effectiveness in Miami, where he notched a 3.58 ERA/3.88 FIP with 7.88 K/9 against 3.11 BB/9 in 37 2/3 innings. Romo also converted 17 of 18 save attempts.
Romo’s velocity maxes out in the mid-80s, making him one of the game’s least imposing hurlers, and he only induces ground balls at a 36.4 percent clip. However, Romo has long shown a penchant for forcing a boatload of infield pop-ups, having done so 14 percent of the time this season, and generating a large amount of soft contact. Romo ranks near the top of the league in hard-hit rate and exit velocity against, according to Statcast, which credits him with an even better expected weighted on-base average against (.276) than the .282 wOBA hitters have mustered off him this year.
Based on his career production and the numbers he has totaled this season, Romo should be a welcome pickup for the Twins, who’ve been in the market for bullpen help for weeks. And his addition shouldn’t preclude them from finding more late-game aid in the coming days. The Twins’ bullpen entered play Saturday ranking better than average in K/BB ratio (ninth) and FIP (11th), but the unit’s closer to middle of the pack in ERA (14th). Moreover, the Twins have jettisoned a handful of notable relievers – Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker – since last week. Those four combined for just over 100 innings of work as part of Minnesota’s relief corps this season. Of their remaining arms, only closer Taylor Rogers and setup man Ryne Harper have recorded easily above-average numbers over a large sample of work.
In Diaz, 22, the Twins are parting with a player they originally signed out of the Dominican Republic for $1.4MM in 2013. Baseball America (subscription required) just ranked Diaz as the Twins’ 10th-best prospect earlier this month. BA lauds Diaz’s defensive ability at first, though it’s worth pointing out he has also excelled on the offensive side in 2019. After opening the season on a tear at the High-A level, Diaz advanced to Double-A for the first time and has since slashed .309/.348/.602 (165 wRC+) with six home runs in 135 plate appearances.
Also 22, Vallimont joined the Marlins as a fifth-round pick just last year. Back then, BA highlighted Vallimont’s fastball – which can hit 96 mph – and “wipeout slider.” More recently, the outlet rated as him as Miami’s 27th overall prospect. Vallimont has produced terrific results this year between the Single-A and High-A levels, where he has combined for a 3.16 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.