NL East Notes: McNeil, Marlins, Braves
The Mets‘ additions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie have eaten up most of the infield at-bats that would’ve otherwise gone to breakout 2018 rookie Jeff McNeil, writes Anthony DiComo in his latest inbox column. As such, McNeil now looks outfield bound in 2019 — a role he’s only played in a total of nine minor league games. While Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are locked into outfield spots — likely in center and right field — McNeil will join Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton in the mix for additional outfield playing time. (Yoenis Cespedes‘ status for the 2019 season is uncertain following surgery on both heels.) It’s curious to see McNeil to a more limited role after the 26-year-old burst onto the scene with a .329/.381/.471 slash in 248 plate appearances, though surely the organization feels its depth on the position player side is formidable. For those wondering, DiComo notes that Todd Frazier isn’t likely to be moved coming off a career-worst year, adding that GM Brodie Van Wagenen indicated Frazier is expected to receive regular at-bats at the infield corners. It’s somewhat curious, then, that the Mets chose to deepen their infield mix with Lowrie rather than add a reliever like Adam Ottavino, who agreed to a $9MM annual salary on a three-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.
Here’s more from the National League East…
- Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides an update on a sleepy Marlins offseason, explaining that the club is still waiting for some bigger things to fall into place before adding to its roster. Beyond the obvious fact that the rebuilding club is waiting to see what players might fall through the cracks in free agency, the Marlins are not particularly interested in making moves before lining up a hopeful trade involving star catcher J.T. Realmuto. That deal could return some MLB pieces, which would dictate the team’s further needs. Jackson also reports that Miami would like to add a lefty bat who can play both the infield and the outfield — a perplexing target considering the fact that the Marlins cut Derek Dietrich, who fits that description to a tee, rather than pay him a projected $4.8MM salary. Jackson again notes that right-hander Dan Straily is available, though Miami isn’t shopping him and would be happy to have him in the rotation in 2019 if a solid offer doesn’t materialize.
- The Braves likely wouldn’t offer Craig Kimbrel more than three years to bring him back to Atlanta, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com, and even then, the average annual value Kimbrel figures to seek could prove prohibitive. The outfield and the rotation, it seems, are still larger priorities for Atlanta decision-makers. Bowman notes that the Braves have not pursued Adam Jones in free agency despite a clear corner outfield opening, instead citing Nick Markakis as the likeliest free agent for the team to pursue.
Marlins To Sign Hector Noesi
The Marlins have inked a deal with righty Hector Noesi, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. It’s not clear whether the minor-league accord includes a spring invite, but Noesi can earn $800K if he cracks the MLB roster.
It has been some time since Noesi, who’ll soon turn 32, has appeared at the game’s highest level. He threw nearly four hundred innings over a five-year span from 2011 to 2015, pitching to a 5.30 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
In the interim, Noesi has plied his trade abroad. He carried an excellent 3.44 ERA over 408 1/3 innings in his first two seasons in the hitter-friendly KBO, though he slipped to a 4.60 ERA in 174 frames last year. Most recently, Noesi has made five strong starts in the Dominican Winter League.
NL East Rumors: Rendon, deGrom, Straily
It’s well known that the Nationals hope to work out a long-term deal with third baseman Anthony Rendon before he reaches free agency next winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote over the weekend (subscription required) that Rendon and agent Scott Boras have been eyeing something in the vicinity of Jose Altuve‘s extension from a year ago. Altuve was already under contract for two years and $12.5MM at the time he signed for an additional five years and $151MM, which brought his current contract to a total of $163.5MM over seven years. The Nats are already just a few million dollars shy of the luxury tax threshold, and bumping Rendon’s annual value from the reported $18.8MM figure to which he agreed on Friday would likely take them over the limit. The Nats have been willing to exceed that threshold for Bryce Harper, however, and perhaps the allure of keeping Rendon from reaching the open market would be incentive enough to do the same. As Rosenthal explores, the two situations are also somewhat related, as fitting both players onto the payroll would come with luxury repercussions — even when factoring in the likely stream of subsequent moves that would follow a new contract for Harper (e.g. trading a current outfielder).
More from the NL East…
- There’s still mutual interest in a contract extension between Jacob deGrom and the Mets, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. The 2018 NL Cy Young winner agreed to a record-setting arbitration raise on Friday when he inked a $17MM contract for the upcoming season, and Puma notes that there’s a belief that any extension would need to cover at least five seasons at rates roughly commensurate with the annual salaries afforded to Clayton Kershaw ($31MM), David Price ($31MM) and Zack Greinke ($34.4MM). That’s a lofty annual price to pay, of course, though after receiving nearly a $10MM raise in arbitration this time around, deGrom’s price tag could approach that point in his final trip through arbitration next season anyhow. He’s controlled through the 2020 season.
- Other teams have been in touch with the Marlins regarding right-hander Dan Straily throughout the offseason, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro in his latest mailbag column, and it’s possible that Straily could yet be moved before Opening Day. The right-hander agreed to a $5MM salary for the upcoming season on Friday and can be controlled through the 2020 season before reaching free agency. While the 30-year-old Straily was limited to just 122 1/3 innings last season, he’s pitched to a respectable 4.03 ERA over his past 495 1/3 innings at the big league level. Fielding-independent metrics don’t necessarily back that output, but Straily has outperformed his FIP throughout his career and, at the very least, is likely looked upon as a viable back-of-the-rotation option for a team in need of a fourth or fifth starter.
NL Notes: LeMahieu, Marlins, Straily, Hill
Some items from around the Senior Circuit…
- The Marlins had some interest in free agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter), though talks “never got close” between the two sides. It’s surprising to see the rebuilding Marlins make a play in any sort of veteran this offseason, though as Rosenthal puts it, Miami saw LeMahieu as an “undervalued asset at potential below-market price.” While it took until early January for LeMahieu to land his two-year, $24MM deal from the Yankees, the second baseman still had a pretty robust market, with multiple teams (including the Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, and Athletics) showing interest in his services. It stands to reason that several others at least checked in, as the Yankees hadn’t been linked to LeMahieu before their deal was announced and Miami was certainly off the radar as a potential candidate. LeMahieu’s $24MM total also topped MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $18MM contract for the free agent second baseman, so it’s fair to assume that his market never dropped to the point that the Marlins could’ve made a play.
- Keeping with the Marlins, right-hander Dan Straily remains “high atop the team’s trade list,” the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes. Straily drew quite a bit of trade attention last winter but his stock dropped after a forearm injury limited him to just 122 1/3 IP in 2018, and some rough advanced metric numbers. Straily’s .350 xwOBA was well above his .324 wOBA, and ERA indicators (5.11 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 4.92 SIERA) paint a lesser picture of his 4.12 ERA. This could make it hard for the Marlins to get their desired “nice return” for the righty, as Cafardo describes it, though he suggests that Miami could get more offers on Straily after other pitching targets in free agency or the trade market come off the board. Straily is controllable for the next two years and isn’t very expensive, as he and the Marlins recently agreed to a $5MM contract for 2019 to avoid arbitration.
- Also from Cafardo, he hears from Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill that the veteran hurler “absolutely” plans to continue his career into the 2020 season. Hill is entering the final season of his three-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers, and it seemed logical to wonder if Hill could be considering retirement, given that he turns 39 in March and has dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career. That said, it also isn’t surprising that Hill wants to keep going in the wake of his late-career revival, as the southpaw has a 2.98 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 3.76 K/BB rate over 407 2/3 IP in 2015-18. If Hill manages can duplicate his performance in 2019, it certainly seems like he’ll be able to land another contract (if a short-term deal) from a contending team. “There’s a lot more left in the tank. I want that ring,” Hill said, in reference to the Dodgers’ close calls in the World Series in each of the last two seasons.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
- The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
- The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
- The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
- The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.
Earlier Updates
Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases
Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.
[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]
Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:
Today’s Updates
- The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
- The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
- Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
- The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
- The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
- Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
- Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.
Earlier Updates
- Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
- Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
- Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
- Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
- Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).
Marlins Reportedly Engaged In “Substantive” Realmuto Trade Talks
Now that Yasmani Grandal has agreed to terms with the Brewers, the Marlins are ramping up trade talks surrounding J.T. Realmuto and are in “substantive discussions” with six teams, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro pegs the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Rays, Padres and Reds as the six teams still in the mix for Realmuto. Frisaro further tweets that the Dodgers “may be [the] most motivated” to land Realmuto of the six current suitors.
As one would expect, the report indicates that Miami’s asking price remains extremely high — at least one elite prospect and, in some cases, a big league catcher with some MLB experience already under his belt. For the six clubs in question, the Dodgers (Austin Barnes), Astros (Max Stassi), Padres (Austin Hedges) and Rays (Michael Perez) would best fit that billing. The Reds, too, have Tucker Barnhart as a catcher with MLB experience, though he’s signed through 2021 (plus a 2022 option) as part of a $16MM extension. He’s previously been rumored as a potential piece in talks with the Marlins, but while his salary isn’t exactly prohibitive, it’d be more logical to see Miami pursue younger, pre-arbitration options who are not yet eligible for arbitration. None of the aforementioned catchers, of course, would be a centerpiece to the deal but could give the Marlins a near-term replacement while they hope for higher-end talent to emerge from their system.
When and whether anything more significant comes to fruition remains to be seen, but the timing of the report certainly makes sense. Now that Grandal is no longer an option for teams around the league who are in the market for a catcher, the Marlins can legitimately pitch Realmuto as the primary difference-maker available. As shown in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker, light-hitting defensive specialist Martin Maldonado is the top remaining free agent. Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli is an option on the trade market, but he’s earning north of $11MM next season, would be a one-year rental and has some concerning recent issues with concussions.
All six of the rumored suitors have deep farm systems that also feature high-end talent, with each of the bunch possessing multiple prospects currently ranked among the game’s 50 best minor leaguers (per both MLB.com and Fangraphs). However, teams throughout the league are increasingly reluctant to part with top-tier minor league talent — particularly when the prospective trade partner is also seeking a controllable MLB-level asset in return, as the Marlins appear to be doing in Realmuto discussions.
Market Chatter: Realmuto, Keuchel, Indians, Castellanos, Ross
The on-again, off-again chatter surrounding the Braves and Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has left an uncertain situation. While the Atlanta organization already seems to have a palatable situation behind the dish, with Brian McCann rejoining the org to pair with Tyler Flowers, it’s also one that is susceptible of improvement. In any event, the stalemate seemingly continues, though Craig Mish of MLB Network does tweet that the teams have been in contact of late regarding Realmuto. It’s far from clear that any progress has been made, though, as he says the Braves “appear to be waiting [the] Marlins out.” The Rays also “remain a possibility,” says Mish, though at this point it’s really anyone’s guess how things will turn out with regard to Realmuto, who’s a valuable enough asset that any number of other teams could conceivably still enter the picture or circle back if other offseason pursuits don’t pan out.
Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…
- The Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sagas are holding up the markets for many remaining free agents, even left-hander Dallas Keuchel, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (video link). Rosenthal suggested on MLBN’s Hot Stove this morning that Keuchel is waiting to see where the market’s top two free agents land, presumably knowing that a suitor who misses out on Harper or Machado will have money to spend elsewhere. The Phillies, for instance, have been connected to all three players, so it’s not all that difficult to see them making a more serious run at Keuchel should their top two targets sign elsewhere.
- Another would-be blockbuster situation that may now be fizzling is the Indians‘ oft-discussed negotiations on top starters Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer discusses the situation, suggesting it may be time for the Cleveland organization to ask for final offers and otherwise move on from the marketing process. Of course, it’s far from clear that the team is taking that stance. And as Hoynes goes on to discuss, it’s also still not apparent how (or even if) the Indians will go about improving a roster that looks quite a bit different than it did just a few months ago. It’s still possible that Cleveland could add an outfielder from the free-agent market, but there’s no indication that they’re in line to make a significant splash on that front.
- Meanwhile, talks between the Braves and the Tigers regarding outfielder Nicholas Castellanos have gone nowhere since the two sides talked at last month’s Winter Meetings, Morosi tweets. The Braves are, of course, still looking far and wide for a corner outfielder and are “active” in their pursuit of that key need. With many options seemingly still on the table, though, the club appears to be content not to push hard for any particular player, which might increase the acquisition cost.
- Veteran southpaw Robbie Ross is preparing to throw for scouts in mid-January as he looks for a new opportunity, MLBTR has learned. Ross spent time with the White Sox organization in 2018, but struggled with his command as he worked back to health following back surgery in August of 2017. He’s now said to be at full strength, though he’ll certainly need to show that to the talent evaluators who take a look. The 29-year-old has generally been quite effective as a big-league reliever, with a 3.52 ERA in 270 2/3 career innings in that capacity.
Marlins Claim Rosell Herrera
The Marlins announced that they have claimed infielder/outfielder Rosell Herrera from the Royals. Herrera was designated for assignment by K.C. last month.
The 26-year-old Herrera made his Major League debut last season, hitting .234/.286/.317 over 302 combined plate appearances with the Reds and Royals, as Kansas City claimed him off waivers from Cincinnati last June. In this brief time in the big leagues, Herrera has already played all three outfield positions as well as time at second base and third base, so he offers quite a bit of versatility to a Marlins team that parted ways with Derek Dietrich earlier this winter. Herrera doesn’t have Dietrich’s upside at the plate, of course, so he could perhaps fit better as competition or perhaps a replacement for current utilityman Miguel Rojas.
Herrera has been added to Miami’s 40-man roster, giving the Marlins a full 40-man complement.
NL Notes & Rumors: Nats, Marwin, Jed, Pads, Fish, J.T., Braves, D-backs
Free agents Marwin Gonzalez and Jed Lowrie are among several second basemen the Nationals have reached out to this offseason, Jamal Collier of MLB.com reports. The open market remains rife with familiar second basemen as the New Year approaches, though Gonzalez and Lowrie are likely the two best choices available. Both Gonzalez and Lowrie are accomplished switch-hitters, but the former is easily the more versatile of the two in the field. Gonzalez is capable of lining up everywhere in the infield and in both corner outfield positions. The Nationals, of course, will take a hit in the corner outfield if free agent Bryce Harper signs elsewhere, so Gonzalez would give them some more depth in the grass.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Padres, who are known to be in the hunt for the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, have shown more persistence than any other team in talks for the catcher, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. With two years of control left and Miami nowhere near contention, Realmuto could be the most obvious trade candidate in the game. However, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price in order for a deal to come together prior to next season. They’re said to want a return consisting of at least one elite prospect, and the Padres happen to boast baseball’s top-ranked farm system, per both Baseball America and FanGraphs. So, if the Padres are truly motivated to land Realmuto, they may be in better position than anyone else. That said, San Diego would not be a popular bet to contend in 2019 even with Realmuto, making it highly debatable whether the team should rob from its system in a win-now trade.
- Given the needs in the Braves’ corner outfield and pitching staff, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that they and the Diamondbacks could be logical trade partners. Outfielder David Peralta, left-hander Robbie Ray and righty Zack Greinke may all be fits for the Braves, O’Brien posits, though he notes the Diamondbacks would have to eat a significant portion of the $95.5MM left on Greinke’s contract to make him a realistic possibility for Atlanta. There are no weighty financial obligations for either Peralta or Ray, who are each under affordable arbitration control through 2020. The Braves have already come up short in an attempt to acquire Peralta this offseason, though, and the D-backs don’t seem willing to part with Ray.
- Sticking with the Braves, they may pursue free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel if he becomes willing to accept a three-year offer, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. That looks rather unlikely, however, considering Kimbrel’s current asking price reportedly ranges anywhere from $86MM to upward of $100M. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see the Braves in the race for Kimbrel, whom they drafted in 2008 and helped develop into one of the greatest closers ever. Kimbrel, now 30, was a Brave from 2010-14 before moving on to the Padres and Red Sox.