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Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency

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With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.

Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:

Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.

That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):

After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.

When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):

While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.

After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.

Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):

The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.

What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):

After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.

Marlins Place Edward Cabrera On 15-Day Injured List

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2:53PM: Cabrera’s IL placement is somewhat precautionary in nature, manager Skip Schumaker told McPherson and other reporters.  “We’re hoping it’s just only two starts [missed].  I don’t think he’s going to miss a bullpen.  He might even throw through that,” Schumaker said.

2:19PM: After already placing Jean Segura on the 10-day injured list earlier today, the Marlins have sent another notable player to the IL.  The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson (Twitter link) reports that the Fish have placed Edward Cabrera on the 15-day IL due to a right shoulder impingement, with the placement retroactive to June 14.  Right-hander Huascar Brazoban has been called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Tapped by many as a possible breakout candidate for the 2023 season, it has been an up-and-down year for Cabrera, with his inflated 14.1% walk rate and 17.3% home run rate contributing to much of this inconsistency.  While Cabrera generally does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground (53.7% groundball rate), his big flies have yielded a lot of damage, as his homer rate is the sixth-highest of any hurler in the league with at least 60 innings pitched.  The result is a 4.70 ERA, despite Cabrera’s impressive 28.9% strikeout rate.

Cabrera joins Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto as projected rotation stalwarts currently on the injured list, with Rogers and Cueto each on the 60-day version of the IL.  The nature of Cabrera’s shoulder problem isn’t yet known, as an “impingement” could describe a more serious concern or just a minor issue that would allow Cabrera to return in the minimum 15 days.  The right-hander already missed around seven weeks of the 2022 season due to elbow tendinitis, as well as a minor ankle sprain that sent him to the IL at the very end of the season.

The Marlins had slated Cabrera to start Monday’s game against the Blue Jays, so the club doesn’t have long to decide on a replacement.  A bullpen game is one option, or the Fish On First blog (Twitter links) notes that Jeff Lindgren or Chi Chi Gonzalez could be called up for a spot start, as both pitchers are on a normal amount of rest between outings for Triple-A Jacksonville.  Neither Lindgren or Gonzalez are on the 40-man roster, but Avisail Garcia could be moved to the 60-day IL to create space.

Marlins Promote Jacob Amaya, Place Jean Segura On 10-Day IL

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12:12PM: Segura has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain, as per McPherson.  This opens up the roster spot for Amaya’s promotion.

11:49AM: The Marlins have called up infielder Jacob Amaya from Triple-A, The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson reports (Twitter link).  The 24-year-old Amaya will be making his Major League debut whenever he first takes the field, which could be as early as today’s game against the Nationals.

Amaya was acquired from the Dodgers in January in the straight-up trade that saw Miguel Rojas sent to Los Angeles.  In essence, the Marlins dealt Rojas for a younger player with a similar glove-first profile.  Scouts have been mixed at best on Amaya’s hitting ability during his six minor league seasons, but his numbers have been solid (.278/.346/.472 with nine homers) over 240 plate appearances with Triple-A Jacksonville in 2023.

MLB Pipeline ranks Amaya as the ninth-best prospect in Miami’s farm system, with Baseball America ranking him 13th.  Both outlets give him a 60 grade for his defense, and Amaya’s floor seems to be a steady career as a utility player who can provide strong glovework at any infield position.  His ability to hit will determine whether or not Amaya can become a true starter, and both Pipeline and BA note that Amaya is more productive at the plate when he is aiming for contact rather than power.  Amaya also has a 9.2% walk rate at Triple-A this season, which is well below the 14.28% combined walk rate he posted at Double-A and Triple-A in 2022.

Despite these bat-related question marks, the Marlins might view any offense Amaya provides as a bonus, given how badly the team could use some defensive help.  Fangraphs’ DEF (Defensive Runs Above Average) metric ranks Miami 30th of 30 clubs this season, with a collective -13.2 figure.

Joey Wendle and Jon Berti are good defenders in their own right, though with Amaya taking up at least semi-regular duty at shortstop, Wendle and Berti could return to their usual utilityman duties around the diamond.  The Marlins may not want to interrupt Luis Arraez’s routine given his incredible run at the plate, but Arraez could see more time at first base rather than his usual spot at second base, considering his middling defensive numbers at the keystone.

Jean Segura could be the player to watch in this positional shuffling, in no small part because Segura could possibly be the corresponding move for Amaya’s promotion.  Segura missed Friday’s game due to a hamstring issue, and while the injury isn’t though to be serious, the Marlins could put Segura on the 10-day IL both for precautionary reasons, and perhaps as a bigger-picture reset for Segura’s 2023 season.

Signed to a two-year, $17MM free agent deal last winter, Segura’s first season in Miami has been nothing short of a disaster.  The veteran has the worst fWAR (-1.1) of any player in baseball, as Segura has hit only .190/.259/.234 over 225 PA while providing subpar defense at third base.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently wrote about how the Marlins should be targeting infield help if they want to remain in the race for a playoff berth, and it could be that the Fish will first give Amaya a look before considering if a bigger upgrade is needed at the trade deadline.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 2: Marlins Cash In Marte

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5, No. 4 and No. 3. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 2…

The Marlins and Starling Marte at one point both hoped the dynamic outfielder would spend the final years of his career in Miami. Marte, whom the Fish acquired from the D-backs at the 2020 trade deadline when he had a season and a half of club control remaining, immediately took a liking to South Beach and voiced a desire to remain there long-term. A then-32-year-old Marte was willing to talk extension during the season in 2021, and the two parties headed into the All-Star break in the midst of extension negotiations.

Starling Marte | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsReporting from Craig Mish, Jordan McPherson and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald at the time indicated that Marte was seeking a four-year extension offer that would cover his age-33 through age-36 seasons — a reasonable request for a player of his caliber. Marte entered that year’s All-Star break with a strong .271/.382/.411 batting line, after all, and was a career .287/.341/.450 hitter entering that 2021 campaign.

The Marlins said all the right things publicly about wanting to keep Marte, but Mish and McPherson reported after the All-Star break that the team had topped out on a three-year offer worth less than $40MM. That type of offer was never going to get a deal done — Marte wound up signing a four-year, $78MM deal in free agency in the offseason, remember — and it was a bit surprising the Fish even put it out there. Regardless, the focus shifted to finding a trade partner for Marte, and in the end, things could hardly have worked out better for Miami.

Marte, as one would expect, quickly became a hot commodity on the trade market once it became clear that an extension in Miami wasn’t happening. The Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Astros were among the teams showing interest, and San Francisco in particular appeared to be a strong on-paper fit. There was never any talk about the Athletics harboring interest in Marte, and their outfield appeared largely set anyhow — at least from the outside looking in. Just days after the trade deadline, however, Ramon Laureano was hit with an 80-game PED ban. He’d almost certainly already gone through the appeals process by that point, so there’s a chance the A’s had a strong inkling they’d need some outfield help by the time they swung their July 28 deal for Marte.

Regardless of the circumstances that led to the trade, it was a legitimate shocker. There’d been virtually nothing to link the two teams prior to the deal, and a low-payroll club like the A’s taking on an expensive rental player didn’t seem plausible. Miami, however, kicked in $4MM to help cover the remainder of Marte’s salary. Owner Bruce Sherman was likely plenty OK with doing so, given the return.

Jesus Luzardo entered the 2020 season as the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. He had a decent but not elite rookie campaign during the pandemic-shortened 2020 sprint (4.12 ERA in 59 innings). Paired with a strong showing during his 12-inning cup of coffee as a 21-year-old late in the 2019 season, he looked ready for primetime and entered the ’21 season regarded as a breakout candidate who could soon front Oakland’s rotation.

Things didn’t pan out that way. Luzardo was rocked for a 5.79 ERA through his first six starts and was placed on the injured list after sustaining a hairline fracture in his left pinkie. The injury, one of the more bizarre IL trips in recent memory, occurred after Luzardo hit his hand on a desk while playing video games. The lefty apologized to the team and fans after the fact, calling the injury “stupid” and “immature.” Luzardo returned a month later, this time pitching out of the bullpen, and allowed 11 runs in 10 innings before being optioned to stretch back out as a starter.

Embarrassing injury aside, the future still seemed plenty bright for Luzardo, even with a poor 38 innings to begin his 2021 season. Perhaps the video game incident contributed to the forthcoming decision. Perhaps the A’s just didn’t feel Luzardo would live up to his prospect status. Or, more likely, perhaps vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst knew full-well what was coming in the offseason — massive payroll cuts from ownership and the inevitable teardown of a roster that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 — and simply felt they needed to push all-in for a ring in 2021.

The 56-46 Athletics traded Luzardo, who still had five years of club control remaining, to the Marlins in order to acquire the final two-plus months of Marte’s contract before he reached free agency.

I used the term “deadline-season stunner” at the time of the trade and still feel that holds up. It’s simply rare for an MLB-ready pitcher with this much promise and this much club control to be moved at all — let alone for a two-month rental. That the acquiring team was a small-market, low-payroll club like the A’s and hadn’t been linked to Marte whatsoever only added to the surprise. In all likelihood, this trade coming together required a perfect storm: the looming PED ban for Laureano, the regrettable freak injury for Luzardo early in the season, and career years/breakouts from several A’s pitchers (Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt, Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian) that all made Luzardo feel a bit more expendable.

In an all too common refrain for the tortured Oakland fanbase these days, the trade hasn’t worked out for the A’s. Granted, Marte was brilliant in green and gold, hitting .316/.359/.466 with five homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples and a hefty 25 steals in just 56 games. The Athletics couldn’t have realistically asked for much more than that, but the rest of the team didn’t hold up well enough to even reach the postseason.

The A’s still finished 10 games over .500, but Oakland lost nine of its final 13 games, finishing third place in the AL West and winding up five games out in the AL Wild Card chase. Marte reached free agency and was ineligible for a qualifying offer by virtue of that midseason trade. Oakland received no compensation for his departure, and ownership gutted payroll as the front office embarked on yet another rebuild.

Down in Miami, things got out to a rocky start as well. Luzardo’s velocity was down a bit in a dozen post-trade starts, and he posted a 6.44 ERA with the Marlins overall in his first run with the club. It wasn’t a great start.

Things took a sharp turn in Miami’s favor the following season. Luzardo, born in Peru but raised in Florida, looked far more comfortable in the first full season of his homecoming. A forearm injury limited him to 100 1/3 innings, but he broke out with a 3.32 ERA, a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate — all while displaying a career-best 96.4 mph average on his heater. His swinging-strike and opponent chase rates were the highest of his career, and he gave up less hard contact than he had during his ugly 2021 campaign.

The Marlins received trade interest in Luzardo over the winter and surely could’ve moved him for a haul of young talent if they’d preferred, but the Fish held onto the still just 25-year-old lefty and now find themselves in the running for a postseason berth. Miami has won eight of ten games and is just three and a half games behind the division-leading Braves in the NL East. If the season ended today, the Fish would land the National League’s second Wild Card spot.

Luzardo has been a key part of that, although his recent six-run clunker did mark his third start of five or more runs allowed this year. Even with that trio of rough outings, Luzardo has a 4.17 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate are much more encouraging, however. Like many pitchers on a Marlins club that is playing multiple players out of position, Luzardo’s been hampered by his defense (.335 BABIP). Fielding-independent metrics like FIP and SIERA both peg him at 3.58 so far this season.

Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Luzardo has given the Marlins 32 starts and 178 innings of 3.69 ERA ball with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s not only regained any velocity that dipped in 2021 but is now averaging a career-high 96.8 mph on his heater. Luzardo’s swinging-strike and chase rates both suggest there’s the potential for even more strikeouts. Even if his results never catch up to the strong marks he’s receiving from fielding-independent numbers, the 2021-22 version of Luzardo is already a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. He may not be an “ace,” and fans can debate whether he’s more of a “No. 2” or “No. 3” type starter, but he’s solidified himself as an above-average starter with upside for more.

The Marlins control Luzardo for three more years beyond the current season. He reached arbitration as a Super Two player this past winter and is already earning $2.45MM. As a Scott Boras client, an extension isn’t likely, so expect Luzardo’s name to pop up in trade rumors again as he inches closer to free agency. Even by Miami payroll standards, he’s a bargain in 2023 and will be again in 2024, so a trade in the short-term doesn’t seem likely. For now, he’ll continue slotting into the rotation of a surprisingly competitive Miami club that could enter the deadline as a buyer if it can maintain any semblance of its current pace.

As for the A’s, they’re on the opposite end of the spectrum, with their primary 2023 goal at this point being to avoid the worst record in big league history. It’s hard to blame the Oakland front office for going all in and trading Luzardo, knowing the fire sale was coming, but the A’s would be a lot less futile with him in the rotation. Or, at the very least, the farm system would likely be stronger with the influx of young talent they could’ve acquired by putting him on the market as part of the rebuild this past offseason.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Infield Upgrades Should Be A Deadline Focus For Marlins

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The Marlins held onto a 4-1 win over the Mariners in dramatic fashion yesterday, pushing them to 38-31. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re 4 1/2 back of the Braves in the NL East but multiple games clear of the Phillies and Mets for second place in the division.

It’s a start that’ll surprise some onlookers. The Marlins are no longer rebuilding and fully intended to be competitive, but they were generally perceived as the fourth-best team in a strong division. While unimpressive starts from Philadelphia and New York have certainly helped, Miami is seven games above .500 and trending towards deadline season as a buyer.

The Marlins are already looking into ways to upgrade behind the plate. That’s understandable; neither Nick Fortes nor Jacob Stallings has done enough to deter the front office from exploring upgrades. There haven’t yet been any reports about Miami gauging the infield market, though that also figures to be a priority for GM Kim Ng and her front office.

Miami aggressively reshaped their infield over the offseason. The Fish went into the winter looking to add high-contact hitters to the lineup. They actualized that in the infield, swapping Pablo López (and a couple prospects) to the Twins for Luis Arraez while adding Jean Segura and Yuli Gurriel via free agency.

Arraez’s acquisition and return to second base pushed Jazz Chisholm to center field. Segura was signed to play third base. Brian Anderson had already been non-tendered, so Segura displaced utility types Joey Wendle and Jon Berti at the hot corner. At the end of the winter, Miami traded clubhouse leader Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers for upper minors infielder Jacob Amaya and named Wendle their new starting shortstop. First baseman Garrett Cooper was the only Miami infielder to start at the same position on Opening Day for the second straight season.

Any time a team makes that many moves, there are going to be mixed results. The contrast in the Marlins’ infield is particularly stark, though. Arraez has been everything the Fish could’ve hoped for. He’s well on his way to another batting title, with a .378/.431/.461 line that more than compensates for concerns about his defensive chops at second base. The rest of the group has not performed up to expectations. There’s no greater question mark than Segura, who has been the worst everyday player in the majors.

The veteran infielder owns a .190/.259/.234 slash over his first 225 plate appearances in South Florida. While Segura has never been a prototypical power threat, he’s reached double digit homers in each of the last six full seasons. This year, he’s connected on just one longball. Among hitters with 200+ plate appearances, Segura has easily the lowest slugging percentage. (Alex Call is second from the bottom at .295.) He’s also last in on-base percentage and tops only Nick Maton and Kyle Schwarber in batting average.

That’s disastrous offense, and Miami’s gamble in moving Segura to a position with which he’s not familiar hasn’t panned out on that side of the ball either. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as five runs worse than the average third baseman through just over 500 innings. Statcast isn’t quite so harsh but has him two runs below par.

Combining league-worst hitting and below-average defense has Segura well below replacement level thus far. He’ll almost certainly improve his production. It’s hard to get any worse than his current line, and Segura’s pre-2023 track record was that of a solid regular. A .224 average on balls in play calls for some positive regression, so he should at least start hitting for a better average.

The complete lack of extra-base impact is a serious concern, however. Solid as the season has gone overall, Miami still isn’t an imposing offensive club.

Playing half their games in cavernous loanDepot Park admittedly isn’t doing the lineup any favors. Miami’s offseason focus was about improving the run production, though, trying to add more balance to a club that skewed so heavily to pitching and defense last year. Many of their moves actively weakened the run prevention to increase scoring. They relinquished López to bring in Arraez, moving Segura and Chisholm off their standard second base positions in the process. They parted with Rojas — a light-hitting, plus defensive shortstop — to shoehorn Wendle into the lineup at a position he’d never played regularly.

The offense is better, but not dramatically so. They’re tied for 25h in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, 18th in on-base percentage (.318) and 19th in slugging (.397). The Fish respectively finished in 28th, 24th, 27th and 28th in those categories last season. Arraez has driven the on-base jump, while the power spike is attributable to scorching starts from holdover outfielders Jorge Soler and Jesús Sánchez. Even with Arraez flirting with a .400 clip for a while, Miami’s infield has a bland .269/.326/.361 slash. As measured by wRC+, they’re 23rd in offensive production from their infielders.

Miami has weathered that so far. That’s in large part to a 17-5 record in one-run contests, allowing them to overcome a -30 run differential that’s above only those of the Rockies and Nationals in the Senior Circuit. The Fish aren’t going to apologize for those wins. They’re in the books, and they put the club right in the thick of a muddled NL playoff picture. Yet that kind of success in close games isn’t something Miami can bank on continuing all year. They’ll need the lineup to improve if they’re to ward off that regression.

Some of that will happen organically. Chisholm has been out a month with a foot injury. Ng recently told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast that he’s likely still several weeks away, but a second-half return should be a boon to the offense. Cooper is a better hitter than this year’s .229/.268/.408 line would indicate. Sánchez is playing regularly now after missing a few weeks in May due to injury.

They’ll need to support that at the deadline, likely by bringing in a left side infielder. Curtailing Segura’s playing time a few months into a two-year, $17MM contract would be a tough pill to swallow, but it might be necessary for a team trying to hang onto a playoff spot.

Players like Jeimer Candelario, Jace Peterson and Patrick Wisdom should be available at the hot corner. There are fewer options at shortstop, though the White Sox could move Tim Anderson and the Cardinals would probably deal Paul DeJong. None of those players can carry a lineup (perhaps unless Anderson bounces back from a tough start), but they’d each provide manager Skip Schumaker some alternatives to continuing to plug Segura in every day.

This deadline season should be an exciting one for Marlins fans. Unless things fall apart within the next six weeks, they’re in position to add in hopes of bolstering a playoff push. Two decades removed from their most recent berth in a 162-game season, the front office shouldn’t hesitate to be aggressive, even if that means making the tough call to bench their biggest free agent pickup of this past offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Keeping An Eye On Catching Market

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The Marlins have been monitoring the market for catching help with the trade deadline now under two months away, per Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. With the team currently sitting seven games above .500 — currently in possession of an NL Wild Card spot and just 3.5 games back of the division-leading Braves — they’re positioned to head into the 2023 deadline as a potential buyer.

Certainly, that stance could change in the coming weeks, depending on whether the team can sustain its hot start to the season. However, even if the Marlins approached the deadline from a seller’s standpoint, finding some long-term help behind the dish could still be a focus. The catcher position has been an area of need in Miami ever since J.T. Realmuto was traded. The team originally hoped that Jorge Alfaro, acquired in that Realmuto swap, could take the reins are the catcher of the future. That didn’t prove true, and a subsequent trade for defensive standout Jacob Stallings has proven similarly unsuccessful.

Stallings, 33, saw his vaunted defensive ratings plummet in his first year with Miami last season. They’ve rebounded to an extent so far in 2023, but the former Pirates backstop has seen his offensive production bottom out at career-worst levels. Stallings is hitting just .161/.238/.226 this season, and since Miami acquired him in the 2021-22 offseason he’s managed only a .210/.281/.278 slash. Paired with his surprisingly below-average defensive grades, the 2021 Gold Glove winner has played at a sub-replacement level since donning a Marlins jersey.

In light of this season’s struggles, Stallings has begun to cede playing time to 26-year-old Nick Fortes. While Fortes isn’t an offensive force himself, his .231/.280/.328 batting line outpaces what Stallings has been able to muster so far in 2023, and Fortes has drawn superior grades for his pitch blocking and pitch framing. Fortes, in fact, leads all big league catchers in Statcast’s new pitch blocking metric. (Stallings has been above-average as well.) Neither catcher has been able to control the running game at all; Fortes has just an 8% caught-stealing rate on the season, while Stallings is only marginally better at 12%. Stolen base success rate is up in general throughout the league with this year’s new rules, but the Fortes/Stallings tandem has allowed the sixth-most steals in MLB (63) and is tied for the fewest runners caught (seven).

Unfortunately for the Marlins — as is often the case, given the scarcity at the position — there doesn’t appear to be a particularly robust catching market on the horizon this summer. Veteran rentals like Yasmani Grandal and Tucker Barnhart (whose two-year deal has a 2024 player option) could become available, but neither is necessarily a major difference maker. Grandal is enjoying a somewhat resurgent .263/.328/.406 performance at the plate, but he’s earning $18.25MM this year and has the worst pop-time of any catcher in baseball (with a 15.5% caught-stealing rate himself). Barnhart hasn’t hit any better than Stallings has.

It’s feasible that some other veterans could hit the market once their respective clubs take a look at top prospects. The Guardians have Bo Naylor largely ready for a big league look but continue dedicating playing time to Mike Zunino. The Pirates have top prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis both in Triple-A, and either could unseat Austin Hedges in the Majors before terribly long. However, neither Hedges nor Zunino would give the Fish a meaningful offensive upgrade.

As far as some potentially more controllable options go, the Marlins could look to some yet-unproven backstops around the league. Ivan Herrera, once the ostensible successor to Yadier Molina in St. Louis, is now blocked by Willson Contreras but remains a top-100 prospect with everyday catching upside. The Giants recently optioned Joey Bart and will continue taking a look at Patrick Bailey as their primary catcher, perhaps setting Bart up for a potential change-of-scenery swap. Of course, learning a new staff on the fly midseason is a challenge, and that’s even more true for a young catcher who’s also trying to establish himself as a viable big leaguer — perhaps even in the midst of a playoff race.

Some Marlins fans might’ve gotten their hopes up for a potential run at Salvador Perez when his name recently popped up in a few rumors, but Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo publicly stated yesterday that he has no intention of trading Perez (who has full veto power over any possible deals anyhow, as a player with 10-and-5 rights). The Mets looked into trades of Tomas Nido before passing him through outright waivers, but he’s another veteran option who’s no guarantee to be an offensive upgrade over the current in-house tandem. The last-place Rockies could speculatively look to sell high on Elias Diaz’s solid start, but he’s a volatile performer on a year-to-year basis and the Rox tend to avoid selling off veterans even in losing seasons.

Miami figures to be just one of several teams poking around a limited catching market. Hopeful contenders in Cleveland, Houston and San Diego have also gotten negligible output from their catchers, and injury troubles elsewhere in the league could create other motivated buyers between now and Aug. 1. There aren’t likely to be too many plausible upgrade options on the market, leaving the Fish and other interested teams to get creative as they aim to address the need.

Marlins Select Archie Bradley

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The Marlins made some roster moves today, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Right-hander Archie Bradley has been selected to the roster, with Huascar Brazobán optioned in a corresponding move. To make room for Bradley on the 40-man roster, lefty Trevor Rogers has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Bradley reaches the majors for the first time this year. It’s now nine consecutive seasons for the former top ten pick. He had a strong run of high-leverage relief from 2017-20 with the Diamondbacks and Reds. His results have gone in the wrong direction over the past two seasons. Bradley is coming off a career-worst year with the Angels, tossing 18 2/3 innings of 4.82 ERA ball while missing extended chunks of action with an elbow fracture and a forearm strain.

That down year kept the 30-year-old on the open market until after Opening Day. He signed a minor league contract with Miami in mid-April. He’s since pitched nine games (including one five-inning start) for Triple-A Jacksonville, tossing 18 1/3 frames. While Bradley has allowed 13 runs, only six have been earned. He’s fanned 16 while walking five.

Miami plugs him into a bullpen that has been solid. They’re 15th in ERA (4.17) but fourth in strikeout rate (24.9%) and third in ground-ball percentage (45.5%). That’s played a role in the club’s 17-5 record in one-run contests, which has them seven games above .500 despite a -27 run differential.

Rogers moves to the 60-day IL after sustaining an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He’s been out since April 20, initially landing on the shelf with a biceps strain in his throwing arm. Rogers made a pair of rehab starts but had a scheduled outing over the weekend scrapped.

The IL transfer doesn’t have much of an impact on Rogers’ eligibility. It backdates to his initial placement, so he’s eligible to return as early as next Wednesday. However, Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweets that he’s not likely to be reinstated when first permissible because of the shoulder discomfort.

Marlins’ Dax Fulton To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Marlins pitching prospect Dax Fulton is expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 season due to elbow surgery, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report. The 21-year-old Fulton will undergo a repair but not full reconstruction (i.e. Tommy John surgery) of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Internal brace and primary repair procedures that are less invasive than a full replacement/reconstruction of the UCL have gained popularity in recent years, though such operations still require lengthy recovery periods.

Fulton becomes the latest in a deep crop of Marlins pitching prospects to incur a major injury setback, although given the sheer volume of quality pitching in Miami’s system and the general attrition rate of pitching prospects, injuries throughout the group were inevitable. Sixto Sanchez has had multiple shoulder surgeries, while Max Meyer and Jake Eder both underwent Tommy John surgery last year.

Fulton isn’t necessarily as touted as that trio, though Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him among the game’s top 100 prospects heading into the season. The former No. 40 overall draft pick pitched to a combined 3.80 ERA in 118 1/3 frames between High-A and Double-A in 2022 and opened the 2023 season back at Double-A. With a strong showing in Pensacola, a promotion to Triple-A was likely — and an eventual 2023 look in the big leagues likely wasn’t entirely off the table.

Fulton already had Tommy John surgery in high school. A second surgery to address the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow before he’s even turned 22 years old is an ominous development, but the Marlins are currently hopeful that he’ll be ready for spring training 2024, per the Herald report.

The Marlins placed Fulton on the minor league injured list last month. Prior to landing on the shelf, he’d made six starts and a relief appearance in Double-A Pensacola, pitching to a 5.18 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate against a rough 12.8% walk rate. Scouting reports on Fulton tout his plus breaking ball, and Law credits him with a plus changeup as well. Fulton isn’t a flamethrower by today’s standards, topping out at 96-97 mph with his heater and averaging a few ticks shy of that max output.

If Fulton is indeed back to full strength next spring, he could still reach Triple-A next year and be on the doorstep of the big leagues, though with just 33 innings pitched this year, his workload will figure to be monitored. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster and won’t be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft until the 2024-25 offseason, so the Marlins don’t yet need to worry about exhausting his minor league options. The focus for now will be on getting the promising lefty back to full strength and ready for the ’24 campaign.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Phillies, Mets

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Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers didn’t make his scheduled rehab start yesterday due to an issue in his non-throwing shoulder, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The club is currently waiting for medical results before making a decision on how to proceed with Rogers, who could be back on the mound in Triple-A as soon as early next week if the impending medical update is encouraging. Rogers has made just four starts for the Marlins this year while battling a biceps strain. In those starts, Rogers posted a solid 4.00 ERA (111 ERA+) with a 4.11 FIP and 19 strikeouts in 18 innings of work, though he did struggle with his command as he hit three batters and walked six in that time.

After Rogers’s setback, the Marlins may be left looking for rotation options in the near future, as Mish indicates that the club is hoping to “slow down” youngster Eury Perez, who has already pitched 60 innings this season between Triple-A and the majors after throwing just 77 innings total last season. The 20-year-old phenom has been excellent in 29 innings in the majors this season, with a sterling 2.17 ERA. That being said, Perez’s 24.8% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and unsightly 27.3% groundball rate all leave something to be desired, resulting in a less inspiring 4.34 FIP.

Mish suggests that the Marlins may limit the young right-hander to somewhere between 100 and 115 innings during the 2023 campaign, and the club is hoping to have Perez available later in the season. A natural time to slow Perez down seemed to be on the horizon with Rogers’s pending return, but with the lefty’s timetable less clear, the Marlins may need to look elsewhere to cover for Perez’s starts if they wish to manage his innings headed into the summer.

More from around the NL East…

  • Phillies fans got positive injury news regarding a pair of young right-handers yesterday, as Rule 5 draft pick Noah Song is set to begin work in sim games in the coming week, as noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Song posted impressive numbers in 2019 after the Red Sox drafted him in the fourth round of that year’s draft, though he has not thrown a profession pitch since due to his service as an officer in the US Navy from 2020-2022 and this year’s injury woes. Coffey also notes that top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, who has been out since Spring Training while rehabbing a UCL sprain, threw a 20-pitch bullpen session yesterday. A consensus top prospect int he sport ranked as high as #5 by Baseball America entering the 2023 season, the 20-year-old Painter seemed poised to claim the fifth starter job in Philadelphia before the UCL injury left him shut down from baseball activity. Painter’s return to the mound is sure to breed optimism among fans in Philadelphia, though Coffey notes that manager Rob Thomson gave no update to Painter’s timetable for return ahead of yesterday’s bullpen session.
  • Mike Puma of the New York Post suggested today that the Mets could look to skip the next start of right-hander Tylor Megill, who has struggled to a 5.14 ERA in 63 innings as a regular member of the club’s rotation this season. Things have gotten particularly difficult for Megill over the past three weeks, and the young right-hander has posted a ghastly 8.64 ERA in his last four starts, walking a whopping twelve batters while striking out just fourteen in 16 2/3 innings of work. As Puma notes, the club won’t require a fifth starter until they face the Astros on June 20, allowing them to either skip Megill’s next start and use him out of the bullpen for a period of time, or perhaps option Megill to Triple-A before giving Joey Lucchesi or David Peterson a look in the rotation. Manager Buck Showalter acknowledged that coming off days provide the club with flexibility, “especially in the bullpen if we wanted to add an arm.”

Tigers Acquire Joe Rizzo From Marlins

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The Tigers have acquired minor league infielder Joe Rizzo from the Marlins in exchange for cash, per announcements from both clubs. The 25-year-old has been assigned to Triple-A Toledo.

Rizzo was a second-round pick of the Mariners back in 2016 but never advanced beyond the Double-A level in his original organization. He posted a solid .277/.343/.467 with Seattle’s Double-A affiliate last season, but the Mariners would’ve had to add him to add him to the 40-man roster in order to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency, and they opted not to do so. Rizzo signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in December.

The 2023 season hasn’t gone as well for Rizzo as the 2022 campaign. He returned to Double-A and posted  a tepid .228/.298/.362 batting line through 142 plate appearances. Despite that below-average offense, he was bumped up to Triple-A Jacksonville, where he’s struggled to a .111/200/.139 output in 40 trips to the plate. Rizzo has primarily been a third baseman in his minor league career, with more than 4000 professional innings logged at the hot corner. He’s still seen notable action at both first base (724 innings) and second base (409 innings).

Baseball America ranked Rizzo 11th, ninth and 23rd among Mariners prospects on their respective 2017-19 rankings, but he’s since fallen off the prospect radar. He’s drawn praise for his bat-to-ball skills, raw power, throwing arm and makeup in those reports, but Rizzo’s on-field results have yet to align with the above-average rating he’s received on several tools and there are questions about his long-term defensive position. For now, he’ll get another change of scenery and fresh set of input from a new coaching and player development staff in hopes of taking his game to a new level and forcing his way into the big leagues.

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