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Brewers Announce Injury Updates: William Contreras, Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick

By Charlie Wright | October 23, 2025 at 7:12pm CDT

Milwaukee announced health news for several players on Thursday. Catcher William Contreras may be facing a corrective procedure for his finger, while infielder Caleb Durbin is expected to have elbow surgery, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, among others. Outfielder Sal Frelick was cleared of any concern, as were pitchers Trevor Megill, DL Hall, and Logan Henderson.

Contreras played through a fractured left middle finger for the majority of the season. The injury was announced in early May, but it was believed to have occurred during the 2024 season. Contreras is meeting with a hand specialist next week for a “potential correction,” noted McCalvy.

The 27-year-old backstop endured his worst season in his three-year tenure in Milwaukee. Contreras slashed .260/.355/.399 with a 113 wRC+. Those would be solid marks for most catchers, but Contreras had set quite the standard since coming over from Atlanta. He posted back-to-back seasons with a batting average above .280 and a slugging percentage over .450. Contreras didn’t miss any time with the finger injury, but it seemed to inhibit his power. He totaled 35 extra-base hits this past season after exceeding that mark in doubles alone in both 2023 and 2024.

Durbin is slated for arthroscopic elbow surgery next week. The infielder dealt with elbow irritation near the end of the season, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He’s expected to be healthy for the 2026 campaign.

Durbin came to the Brewers this past offseason in the trade that sent closer Devin Williams to the Yankees. He opened the season at Triple-A Nashville, but was promoted to the big-league club a few weeks into the season.  Durbin hit well enough to hold down the third base job for the rest of the year. He also made appearances at second base and shortstop. Durbin slashed a respectable .256/.334/.387 while recording double-digit home runs and stolen bases. He hit safely in six of Milwaukee’s nine postseason games, including two doubles and a triple.

Frelick battled knee soreness over the final months of the regular season. He missed a handful of games in early August, but never went to the IL. Offseason imaging on the knee came back clean, with the team describing the findings as “unremarkable.” Frelick is expected to have a normal offseason.

Megill and Hall both returned from injuries just in time for the playoffs. Megill’s flexor strain and Hall’s oblique issue were deemed fully recovered. Henderson’s season was cut short by a flexor strain of his own, but he’s also good to go now.

Quinn Priester is expected to have a normal offseason after dealing with wrist soreness. He never went to the IL with the injury and was available for a pair of postseason appearances. The issue will be managed with treatment and rehab heading into the 2026 season.

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MLBTR Podcast: The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches

By Darragh McDonald | October 22, 2025 at 11:00pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Blue Jays making it to the World Series and how being a baseball writer can dull your fandom (1:20)
  • The Phillies reportedly planning to move on from Nick Castellanos (7:10)
  • The Tigers making an uninspiring extension offer to Tarik Skubal a year ago (15:30)
  • The Giants potentially hiring Tony Vitello to be their new manager (27:50)
  • The Brewers reportedly willing to listen to offers on Freddy Peralta (35:20)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What positions do the Astros need to target to make it back to the postseason? (41:55)
  • Do the Brewers need to change their contact-over-power approach? (45:20)
  • Will Kyle Tucker’s injuries significantly impact his payday? (47:10)
  • Should the Padres try to sign J.T. Realmuto or stick with Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano? (49:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason, Managerial Vacancies, And More! – listen here
  • Rockies’ Front Office Changes, Skip Schumaker, And ABS Talk – listen here
  • Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

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Brewers Claim Sammy Peralta

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2025 at 1:45pm CDT

The Brewers have claimed left-hander Sammy Peralta off waivers from the Angels, as announced by both teams.  There hadn’t been any public indication that Peralta had been designated for assignment, but the southpaw will now be on the move again after spending the last five months in the Halos organization.

After breaking into the big leagues with the White Sox and posting a 4.37 ERA over 35 relief innings for Chicago in 2023-24, Peralta elected minor league free agency following the 2024 campaign.  He began his 2025 season in the Mexican League before inking a minors deal with the Angels in May, and Los Angeles selected Peralta to the active roster in September.  Peralta made five appearances in a Halos uniform without much success, posting a 7.59 ERA in 10 2/3 innings.

Peralta is one of the lower-velocity pitchers in baseball, with an average fastball that clocks in at just 89.3mph over his relatively brief time in the big leagues.  Relying on a fastball/slider/changeup mix for much of his pro career, Peralta started to incorporate a sinker into his repertoire this season and cut back on his change.  When pitching with the Angels, Peralta relied heavily on his slider and sinker and didn’t much use his fastball or change up, though the sample size was small enough that conclusions can’t really be drawn about this usage as a new career direction.

Milwaukee has been so adept at turning unheralded pitchers into productive big league arms that this seemingly innocuous waiver claim may end up having an impact on the Brewers’ 2026 bullpen.  The Brew Crew have seen something in Peralta’s work that made them intrigued enough to make a claim and take a look at the lefty, who has one minor league option remaining.  It is very possible Peralta might yet be DFA fodder as the Brewers make other roster moves over the offseason.  If Peralta is designated and then outrighted, he has the ability to elect free agency since he has been outrighted in the past.

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Shelby Miller Undergoes Elbow Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | October 20, 2025 at 1:15pm CDT

Right-hander Shelby Miller underwent elbow surgery last week, according to the club’s injury tracker at MLB.com. He had his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor tendon repaired in the operation and is likely to miss the 2026 season.

The news doesn’t come as a surprise. Arm issues were a notable part of his 2025 season. With the Diamondbacks earlier this year, he went on the injured list with a forearm strain in July. He was still on the IL when the Brewers acquired him at the deadline. Milwaukee was surely aware that it was a risky pick-up, which is why they didn’t include any prospect capital in the deal. They instead took on $2MM of Jordan Montgomery’s deal for a player to be named later or cash, meaning Arizona only got cost savings.

Miller came off the IL in mid-August but felt a “pop” in his elbow in early September. He was then diagnosed with a sprained UCL and placed on the 60-day IL. He told reporters that a second career Tommy John surgery was a distinct possibility.

The righty is an impending free agent. Since he will likely miss all of next season, his market will obviously be impacted. Pitchers in this situation will sometimes receive two-year offers. Those pacts allow hurlers to make some money while rehabbing, with the team hoping for return on that investment in the second season. Miller may be hard-pressed to find such an offer, however. He is 35 years old now, meaning his likely return in 2027 would come after his 36th birthday. The track record for pitchers coming back from a second UCL surgery isn’t as strong as after just one.

He did have a good season. He tossed 46 innings between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, allowing 2.74 earned runs per nine. His 8.1% walk rate was close to average while his 29% strikeout rate was quite strong. He had a leverage role with the Snakes before the swap, earning ten saves and eight holds. Teams will surely be interested but his rehab and recovery will determine if he can get back to that level in the future.

There’s also an update on Brandon Woodruff in the tracker. It says that he would not have been on the World Series roster if the Brewers had qualified but he expects to be healed in time to participate in spring training and be ready for the start of the 2026 campaign.

Woodruff is one of the more interesting free agents this winter. His deal has a mutual option but it’s been more than a decade since one of those has been exercised by both sides. They are mostly an accounting measure to kick some of the payments into the future.

The righty’s track record is excellent but the health is the question. He missed all of 2024 due to shoulder surgery. He came off the IL in July and shoved for 12 starts before going back on the IL in September due to a lat strain. In those 12 starts, he logged 64 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. His excellent numbers will surely be enticing to teams but he’s turning 33 in February and hasn’t been healthy for an extended stretch since 2022.

Even with the age and injury concerns, he should still find lots of interest if he is on track to be healthy again next year. A few years ago, Justin Verlander got a two-year, $50MM guarantee going into his age-39 season after missing the entire 2021 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. Carlos Rodón got a two-year, $44MM guarantee from the Giants when he had some questions about his ability to stay healthy, though he was far younger. Shane Bieber just got a two-year, $26MM deal from the Guardians even though he wasn’t expected back until midseason. In all of those deals, there was an opt-out after the first season.

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

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Brewers Expected To Consider Trading Freddy Peralta

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2025 at 11:57am CDT

The Brewers hold an $8MM club option on Freddy Peralta’s services for 2026, which represents the team’s last bit of control from what was initially a five-year, $15.5MM extension signed by the right-hander back in February 2020.  With Peralta now slated for free agency during the 2026-27 offseason, it is possible he has already thrown his last pitch in a Brewers uniform, as The Athletic’s Andy McCullough writes that Milwaukee is “expected to at least field offers for” Peralta’s services.

The news comes as no surprise, since as of last June, Peralta and his agents at Klutch Sports hadn’t gotten anywhere with the Brewers on another contract extension.  Milwaukee president of baseball operations Matt Arnold didn’t even entirely rule out the possibility of the Brew Crew moving Peralta at this past trade deadline, even if Arnold stressed that such a deal was quite unlikely with the team in the midst of what ended up as a successful run at another NL Central title.

Because the Brewers obviously plan to be contenders again in 2026, there is plenty of logic in simply keeping Peralta atop their rotation.  The righty enjoyed what was in many ways his finest season, posting a 2.70 ERA over a career-best 176 2/3 innings.  Peralta’s stellar numbers included a 28.2% strikeout rate and 34.5% hard-hit ball rate, and though his walk and barrel rates were below average, that has been the norm for Peralta throughout his career.

Peralta got some good strand-rate and BABIP luck in 2025, which explains why his 3.68 SIERA was almost a full run higher than his ERA.  However, Peralta’s career 3.61 SIERA and 3.59 career ERA are virtually identical, and there is every reason to believe he can continue performing like a solid front-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.

A modest $8MM price tag for such frontline pitching only adds to Peralta’s trade value.  Every team can fit Peralta into their budget at that price, so apart from the clubs that are in clear rebuilding mode, virtually every other team in baseball will have reason to check in with Arnold about Peralta’s availability.  The Crew would certainly land a substantial trade package in return for Peralta, which is why Arnold can’t help but listen to offers.  As Arnold put it back in July when describing his team’s stance on trade offers, “Obviously it’s important for us to never close the door…It’s something that we can never exclusively say no on anything.”

Since Milwaukee is also operating under its standard limited budget, Peralta and his $8MM salary arguably carries more value to the Brewers than any other contender.  Peralta’s contract has proven to be a tremendous bargain for a club that has often traded away star players prior to free agency, as the option years in Peralta’s deal kept his salaries in check.  As McCullough notes, other ex-Brewers like Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, or Devin Williams were more expensive due to rising arbitration salaries, plus a starter like Peralta making $8MM is a much different scenario than a closer like Hader or Williams earning a hefty portion of a mid-sized payroll.

Brandon Woodruff and Jose Quintana each have mutual options in their contracts but are expected to become free agents this winter.  If those starters left and Peralta was traded, Milwaukee’s 2026 rotation lines up as Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick as the likely top four starters, with Robert Gasser, Tobias Myers, Carlos Rodriguez, or Aaron Ashby also in the mix for rotation work.  It’s not a bad group, but there is a distinct lack of MLB experience, and signing a lower-cost veteran arm (i.e. Quintana) would raise the rotation’s floor but not necessarily the ceiling.

Reading about the possibility of a Peralta trade only adds to the sting of the last week for Milwaukee fans, as the Brewers were unceremoniously swept out of the NLCS by the Dodgers.  Brewers fans know the drill by now when it comes to trading star players, of course, and the club’s run of success over the last decade has been due in part to the front office’s ability to successfully reload the roster.  Looking back at Hader’s trade to the Padres in 2022, for instance, that deal brought the Brewers back Gasser, as well as Esteury Ruiz, who was later flipped as part of the three-team swap that brought William Contreras to Milwaukee.

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Martin Maldonado Announces Retirement

By Mark Polishuk | October 18, 2025 at 9:50am CDT

After 15 Major League seasons, Martin Maldonado is retiring from baseball.  The 39-year-old catcher made the official announcement today via his Instagram page, thanking his family, the fans, teammates, coaches, and many others who helped him live his dream.

“Baseball, I was just four years old when I fell in love with you,” Maldonado said in his statement.  “From the moment I first put on that catcher’s gear, I knew this game would be part of me forever.  Every inning, every pitch, every moment behind the plate has been a blessing.  For 34 years, I’ve had the honor of wearing that gear — and for the last 15, doing it at the highest level.  Today, it’s time to hang them up and officially call it a career.”

The epitome of a glove-first catcher, Maldonado will retire with a career .203/.277/.343 slash line and 119 home runs over 4028 plate appearances and 1230 games in the majors.  Despite the modest offensive output, Maldonado carved out a long career due to his defense and game-calling ability.  Maldonado was renowned for his ability to work with pitchers, whether it was young arms just arriving in the big leagues or veteran hurlers who were set in their routines.

This ability earned Maldonado regular work on one of baseball’s most successful teams of recent years, as he played with the Astros for parts of the 2018-23 seasons.  Initially a deadline pickup for Houston in 2018, Maldonado left for a free agent deal with the Royals that winter, but was re-acquired again by the Astros at the 2019 trade deadline.  The Astros then locked Maldonado up on a two-year contract that winter, with another extension in April 2021 that ultimately added two more years to Maldonado’s time in Houston once he played enough in 2021 to trigger a vesting option.

With plenty of pop elsewhere in the lineup, the Astros were happy to focus on defense in the catcher’s position, with such other backstops as Jason Castro, Garrett Stubbs, Christian Vazquez, and eventual heir apparent Yainer Diaz all sharing time with Maldonado behind the plate.  Maldonado’s tenure in Houston was highlighted by a championship ring in 2022 when the Astros captured the World Series.

A 27th-round pick for the Angels way back in the 2004 draft, Maldonado didn’t make his MLB debut until he appeared in three games with the Brewers in 2011.  That cup of coffee marked the first of six seasons for Maldonado in a Milwaukee uniform, acting as a complement to regular catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  The Brewers dealt Maldonado to the Angels in December 2016, and the 2017 season saw Maldonado earn starting catcher duties and win the only Gold Glove of his career.

Maldonado went from the highs of the Astros’ perpetual contention to the low of playing with the 121-loss White Sox in 2024, though Maldonado was released by the Sox in July of that year as the team was moving on to younger options.  He signed a minor league contract with the Padres last winter and hit .204/.245/.327 in 161 PA and 64 Major League games in what ended up being his final season in the Show.  The Padres designated Maldonado for assignment and released him in August, but re-signed him to a minor league deal in September.  Maldonado even got one more taste of the playoffs when the Padres activated him for backup duty in their Wild Card Series against the Cubs, though Maldonado didn’t play during the three-game series.

Maldonado’s defensive metrics tended to swing from year to year, yet at various points in his career, he was one of baseball’s best at framing pitchers, blocking pitches in the dirt, and throwing out baserunners.  In the latter category, Maldonado tossed out 188 of 663 runners (28.36%) attempting to steal.  Maldonado finishes his career as a +17 in Fielding Run Value and with +57 Defensive Runs Saved.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Maldonado on a fine career, and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

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Nine Players Elect Free Agency

By Darragh McDonald | October 15, 2025 at 5:17pm CDT

Now that the season is over, we’ll start seeing several players choose to become minor league free agents. Major League free agents (i.e. players with six-plus years of big league service time) will hit the open market five days after the end of the World Series, but eligible minor leaguers can already start electing free agency.

To qualify, these players must have been all outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters during the 2025 season without being added back. These players also must have multiple career outrights on their resume, and/or at least three years of Major League service time.

We’ll offer periodic updates over the coming weeks about many other players hitting the market in this fashion. Unless otherwise credited, these free agent decisions are all listed on the official MLB.com or MILB.com transactions pages, for further reference.

Catchers

  • Eric Haase (Brewers)
  • Chad Wallach (Angels)

Outfielders

  • Akil Baddoo (Tigers)
  • Dominic Fletcher (White Sox) (per Scott Merkin of MLB.com)
  • Corey Julks (White Sox) (per Merkin)

Pitchers

  • Carl Edwards Jr. (Rangers)
  • Trevor Richards (Diamondbacks)
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs)
  • Randy Wynne (Reds)

Photo courtesy of Jonathan Hui, Imagn Images

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2025-26 MLB Free Agents Arizona Diamondbacks Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels Milwaukee Brewers Texas Rangers Transactions Akil Baddoo Carl Edwards Jr. Chad Wallach Corey Julks Dominic Fletcher Eric Haase Keegan Thompson Randy Wynne Trevor Richards

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Tobias Myers, Ben Casparius Added To NLCS Rosters

By Anthony Franco | October 13, 2025 at 6:49pm CDT

The Brewers and Dodgers kick off the National League Championship Series in less than an hour. Each team made one change to the rosters from their respective Division Series.

Milwaukee made a move in the bullpen, swapping out Nick Mears for Tobias Myers. General manager Matt Arnold told reporters the decision was mostly about adding length to the pitching staff (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). Mears has only once completed two innings in a game this season. All but five of his 63 appearances have been a single inning or less. Myers has been a starter for much of his career and was working a handful of 2-3 inning stints in long relief down the stretch. The Brewers will lean heavily on their relievers, especially in games not started by Freddy Peralta, and have Aaron Ashby kicking off a bullpen game tonight.

Still, it comes as a moderate surprise that the hard-throwing Mears gets left off the roster entirely. Over the course of the season, only Trevor Megill entered the game in higher-leverage spots on average for skipper Pat Murphy. Mears was third on the team with 16 holds. He’d also pitched three times in the five-game Division Series win over the Cubs, tossing 1 2/3 scoreless frames while striking out three of seven batters faced. Mears missed a couple weeks in September with back tightness, but Arnold suggested the decision was less a health question and more about the need for multi-inning arms in a seven-game set.

The Dodgers also made a change, adding a 12th pure pitcher after carrying 11 pitchers (not including Shohei Ohtani) and 15 position players for their series against the Phillies. Right-hander Ben Casparius draws in while the team subs out third catcher Dalton Rushing. That’s most notable as a positive sign for Will Smith. The Dodgers were apprehensive about having Smith catch early in the Philly series. The star backstop came off the bench as a pinch-hitter for the first two games as he plays through a finger fracture.

Smith caught the last two games in full and apparently showed enough that the Dodgers no longer feel they need to keep Rushing active behind Smith and Ben Rortvedt. The 24-year-old Rushing struck out in a pinch-hit at-bat in his only appearance during the Division Series. Casparius adds a mop-up option to the bullpen after pitching to a 4.64 earned run average across 77 2/3 innings during the regular season. He pitched very well for the first two months but posted a 6.31 ERA in 27 appearances after June 1.

The full rosters break down as follows:

Brewers

Catchers: William Contreras, Danny Jansen

Infielders: Jake Bauers, Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, Andrew Vaughn

Outfielders: Jackson Chourio, Isaac Collins, Sal Frelick, Brandon Lockridge, Blake Perkins, Christian Yelich

Right-Handers: Grant Anderson, Trevor Megill, Jacob Misiorowski, Tobias Myers, Chad Patrick, Freddy Peralta (Game 2 starter), Quinn Priester, Abner Uribe

Left-Handers: Aaron Ashby (Game 1 opener), Robert Gasser, Jared Koenig, José Quintana

Dodgers

Catchers: Ben Rortvedt, Will Smith

Infielders: Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, Freddie Freeman, Hyeseong Kim, Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas

Outfielders: Alex Call, Justin Dean, Kiké Hernández, Teoscar Hernández, Andy Pages

Two-Way Player: Shohei Ohtani

Right-Handers: Ben Casparius, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan, Blake Treinen, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Game 2 starter)

Left-Handers: Anthony Banda, Jack Dreyer, Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell (Game 1 starter), Alex Vesia, Justin Wrobleski

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Brandon Woodruff Won’t Be On Brewers’ NLCS Roster

By Mark Polishuk | October 12, 2025 at 11:58am CDT

Brandon Woodruff has yet to take part in the Brewers’ postseason run, as the lat strain the veteran righty suffered in September kept him off Milwaukee’s NLDS roster.  That absence will now stretch into the NL Championship Series, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy writes that Woodruff has yet to start even playing catch, so he naturally won’t be ready in time for the start of the NLDS on Monday.

With his throwing work still not underway, Woodruff would have to make a lot of progress in a pretty short window of time to receive consideration for a possible World Series roster slot.  If the Brewers defeat the Dodgers in the NLCS, Game 1 of the World Series falls on October 24, giving Woodruff just 12 days to get ramped up enough to pitch even in a relief capacity.

Asked if a return was possible, Woodruff said “I’m not ready to answer that question yet.  I’ve been trying to get ready.  Each day is better and better for me.  I don’t know what tomorrow looks like, but these past 2-3 weeks have been good for me and we’ll see what happens.  It’s too early to make a call on anything.”

Woodruff last pitched on September 17, when he threw a strong start (five IP, one earned run on two hits and no walks with nine strikeouts) in the Brewers’ 9-2 win over the Angels.  The performance continued Woodruff’s quality results in his comeback season, as the right-hander recorded a 3.20 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate across 12 starts and 64 2/3 innings.

These would be outstanding numbers for any pitcher, but it was a particular triumph for Woodruff considering his many injury battles.  Shoulder surgery cost him the entirety of the 2024 season and an ankle issue delayed the start of his 2025 campaign, but Woodruff returned not just healthy, but displaying the kind of form that made him a two-time All-Star.  Unfortunately, Woodruff’s dream return and a surefire role in Milwaukee’ s postseason rotation was spoiled by his lat strain.

With Woodruff still out, Freddy Peralta may be the only Brewers pitcher guaranteed to work as a traditional starter in the NLCS.  Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana, and Chad Patrick could all get starts, or potentially be pseudo-starters in a bulk pitcher capacity, if the Brew Crew again deploy a high-leverage reliever as an opener against Los Angeles.

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Poll: Who Will Win The League Championship Series?

By Mark Polishuk | October 12, 2025 at 8:49am CDT

The postseason field has been narrowed down to four teams, in mostly chalk fashion.  Each member of the final four is a division winner, and three of the clubs received first-round byes.  The Dodgers were the only club who had to advance through the wild card round, and the reigning World Series champs aren’t exactly underdogs.  In fact, all of the Brewers, Mariners, and Blue Jays had a lot more questions to answer about their playoff readiness given a recent lack of postseason success, yet all three teams were up to the task in winning their League Championship Series matchups.

Only the Yankees have reached the World Series more times than the Dodgers, who are vying for the franchise’s 23rd trip to the Fall Classic.  Los Angeles is the defending champion aiming for its third ring in six seasons, against three teams with much less of a postseason resume.  The Blue Jays are a perfect 2-0 in the club’s only two World Series appearances, but they last reached the Series in 1993.  The Brewers’ lone Series appearance was so long ago (in 1982) that the club was still in the American League, and Milwaukee fell to the Cardinals in a seven-game nail-biter.  The Mariners can get a big albatross off their backs just by winning the AL pennant, as Seattle is the only team in Major League Baseball to have never reached a World Series.

The ALCS between the Mariners and Blue Jays carries some added historical import since the two teams both joined MLB in 1977.  The only previous playoff series between the two expansion cousins took place in 2022, when Seattle swept Toronto in two games in the best-of-three wild card series, and made an epic comeback from an 8-1 run deficit to capture a 10-9 win in Game 2.  That crushing loss was part of the 0-6 playoff record the Jays carried during the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era, before Toronto broke out with a dominant win over the Yankees in this year’s ALDS.

Blue Jays hitters erupted for 34 runs and a collective .338/.373/.601 slash line over the four games against New York.  While that level of an explosion came as a surprise, Toronto led the league in both batting average and OBP this season, while also finishing near the top of the table in runs and OPS.  Seattle’s season-long numbers weren’t quite as impressive, yet the club has been one of baseball’s best offensive teams since Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were acquired at the trade deadline.  Led by these two big bats, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, and the all-around brilliance of MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’ powerful lineup will provide the Jays’ pitching staff with a huge challenge.

In terms of run prevention, the Blue Jays have a significant edge on defense.  Toronto had a collective +51 Defensive Runs Saves and +14 Outs Above Average in the regular season, in comparison to Seattle’s +9 DRS and -30 OAA.  This could potentially help the Jays counter the Mariners’ deeper rotation, as with Bryan Woo expected to return from injury in the ALCS, all five of the M’s regular starters will be available in some capacity.  How exactly those starters will be deployed is still a matter of debate, as George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo all had to pitch during Seattle’s 15-inning marathon with the Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS.

The Blue Jays held a 4-2 edge in the season series with the Mariners this year, and have the homefield advantage as the AL’s top seed.  That is a significant point for a Jays team that is 56-27 at Rogers Centre during the regular season and playoffs, plus the Mariners’ road record is only 40-43.  Turning to the National League, the Brewers and Dodgers each had identical 52-29 home records in the regular season, and Milwaukee was an impressive 45-36 away from home, while the Dodgers were only 41-40 on the road.

The other eye-opening statistic is Milwaukee’s perfect 6-0 record in head-to-head play against Los Angeles this season.  As daunting as the Dodgers’ star-studded roster may be, the Brewers have had their number in 2025, and will now have to try and do it again in the postseason.  L.A. has won the only two prior postseason series between the two franchises, including a seven-game win in the 2018 NLCS.

That 2018 season marked the last time the Brew Crew won a playoff series until their five-game win over the Cubs in this year’s NLDS.  The series as a whole was a demonstration of the kind of quality pitching and timely hitting that the Brewers have enjoyed all season.  A relative lack of power is basically the only flaw for a lineup that posted tremendous numbers, but Andrew Vaughn’s career turn-around since being acquired by the Brewers in June has added a new dimension to the offense.

A pair of shaky starts from Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester at Wrigley Field could be red flags for the Brewers against L.A.  Peralta pitched well enough in Game 1 that his Game 4 performance might just be a hiccup, yet if Priester can’t get on track, the Brewers will have to lean even harder on a bullpen that has already logged a lot of innings in the NLDS.  Milwaukee is as creative as any team in getting the most out of its pitching staff, so expect plenty of unconventional pitcher usage as the Brewers will try to keep the Dodgers at bay.

After a somewhat underwhelming regular season by their high standards, the Dodgers may have flipped the switch for October, sweeping the Reds in the wild card series and then dispatching the Phillies in a four-game NLDS.  Even with several stars (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and an injury-diminished Will Smith) yet to get rolling at the plate, the Dodgers have been aided by a red-hot Mookie Betts and contributions from up and down their seasoned lineup.

Roki Sasaki’s emergence as the club’s seeming first choice at closer has been huge for Los Angeles, and perhaps addresses the team’s biggest weakness.  If Sasaki is now a high-leverage option late in games and the excellent L.A. starting rotation remains in form, the Brewers have a pretty narrow window to strike against the rest of the struggling Dodger bullpen.

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