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Jake Odorizzi Discusses Qualifying Offer Decision

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Righty Jake Odorizzi discussed his decision to accept the Twins’ qualifying offer with reporters including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (Twitter thread) and Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The chat provided some insight into Odorizzi’s thought process and future intentions.

Broadly, Odorizzi made clear he was pleased to return to Minnesota. “On a one-year deal, this was the place I wanted to be,” he said. The righty indicated that he’s comfortable in all respects with the organization — and would in fact be open to a longer arrangement.

Odorizzi is “always open” to talks on a long-term pact, he says. But he suggested he’ll leave it to the front office whether to kick-start such an effort, saying “the ball’s in their court now.”

It seems possible the Twins could explore a multi-year scenario with Odorizzi in the coming spring, but that’s a low-likelihood proposition. For a front office that plainly values long-term payroll flexibility, going beyond the existing $17.8MM commitment may not hold particular appeal. There’s always a price at which it might make sense, but Odorizzi won’t be able to generate open-market pressure again until after the 2020 season.

The muddied starting pitching market seems to have been a deciding factor in Odorizzi’s decision to accept the single-season payout. He indicated that he was in touch with plenty of clubs but was ultimately unable to gain sufficient clarity regarding his contract outlook to take the risk of hitting the market with draft compensation attached. “I didn’t want to be sitting on my couch in February,” Odorizzi explained.

Compare his situation to that of Will Smith, the left-handed reliever who secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves and declined his QO from the Giants. Though MLBTR assessed Smith’s market value beneath that of Odorizzi, the former stood out greatly in a market that lacked for premium late-inning arms. That scarcity surely made it much easier for his reps to ramp up his market in a short time frame and arrive upon a deal.

Odorizzi’s gambit could certainly pay off in the long run, though he’ll need to turn in another high-quality season for that to be the case. He says he hopes to land “at the top of the class” on the market next winter, when the Twins won’t be able to saddle him with another QO. Odorizzi is certainly young enough to take this path, though it’s always tough to pass on a chance to lock up a long-term commitment on the heels of a strong season. Of course, it’s always worth remembering that these decisions are personal to the player.

On the Twins’ side, it’s hard to see this as anything but a win. Odorizzi might have cost just as much annually on a multi-year pact on the open market. Instead, the club gets a much-needed rotation piece at a palatable single-season rate without having to commit into the future. In theory, this could make it more likely that the Minnesota org strikes big in other areas of the market — including, perhaps, some of the players that spurned qualifying offers yesterday.

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Jake Odorizzi To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Right-hander Jake Odorizzi will accept a qualifying offer from the Twins, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll now be signed for the 2020 season at a rate of $17.8MM.

Jake Odorizzi | Ben Ludeman-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a bit of a surprise move but likely a welcome development for a Twins club that previously stood to see 80 percent of its starting rotation hit free agency. Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez (whose $7.5MM club option was bought out) were all slated to hit the open market.

Instead, the 29-year-old Odorizzi will return on a one-year deal at a strong annual rate with an eye toward testing the market in earnest next season when he wont’t have a qualifying offer attached to his name. The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that a player can only receive one qualifying offer in his career, so Odorizzi won’t cost any teams any draft or international forfeitures when he hits free agency again next winter.

The 2019 season proved to be either a rebound or a breakout for Odorizzi, depending on how one views it. He looked like a pitcher on the rise from 2014-16 with the Rays before posting a pair of solid but unremarkable seasons with Tampa Bay and Minnesota in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Last winter, Odorizzi embarked on a new offseason training regimen with a focus on biomechaics and did similar work with newly hired Twins pitching coach during Spring Training, which led to an uptick in velocity and career-best marks in terms of K/9, overall strikeout percentage and swinging-strike rate. The results spoke for themselves, as Odorizzi turned in 159 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with 10.1 K/9 (a 27.1 percent overall strikeout rate), 3.0 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9 and a 35 percent ground-ball rate.

While most pegged Odorizzi as a candidate to secure a multi-year pact in free agency — he landed 10th on our ranking of the Top 50 free agents — he and his representatives at Excel Sports Management clearly weren’t enthused by their early talks with teams throughout the league. Once a player receives a qualifying offer, he has up to 10 days to accept or reject it, and he’s free to explore the open market during that time. Odorizzi’s decision largely came down to the wire, and he’ll now have another year to further build his case. If he can repeat his 2019 success next season and return to the open market in advance of his age-31 campaign, he’ll presumably fare quite well in free agency. Of course, as is always the case, he now runs the risk of damaging his stock with a poor performance or a notable injury.

For the Twins, Odorizzi’s return adds a notable salary to the books, but that’s of little concern given the enormous amount of payroll space the club has available. Even with Odorizzi back at $17.8MM, the Twins have a total of just $48.9MM in guaranteed contracts on the books, plus another $40.8MM worth of projected arbitration salaries. (That number could drop to $33.1MM if C.J. Cron is non-tendered.) That puts the Twins in the $82-89MM range, depending on Cron’s fate. Even after accounting for pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, Minnesota checks in under $100MM and vastly below the organization’s club-record payroll of $130MM from the 2018 season.

That’s good news for the Twins given the club’s need to address the rest of the rotation. While in-house candidates like Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Brusdar Graterol and, eventually, prospect Jordan Balazovic all present intriguing 2020 options, the Twins still need to add at least one more proven arm — if not two proven arms to the mix. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have been candid about the team’s plan to pursue “impact” starting pitching, making that remaining payroll capacity all the more pivotal. For now, however, Minnesota surely feels better about its rotation outlook, knowing that one major piece of the puzzle was filled in less than two weeks into the offseason.

Jake Odorizzi ‘Strongly Considering’ Twins’ Qualifying Offer

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Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi is “strongly considering” accepting his qualifying offer from the Twins, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (link). If he accepts, Odorizzi would be set to earn $17.8MM in 2020. Final qualifying offer decisions are due by 4 pm CST this afternoon.

If Odorizzi ultimately decides to return to Minnesota under the auspices of the one-year QO, it will stand as one of the early surprises of the offseason. Although the right-hander faces some stiff competition from fellow free-agent starting pitchers on the open market, it seemed at the offseason’s outset that the former Ray could represent the very best of the market’s “third tier” of starters (following, arguably, after the triumvirate of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Wheeler). While our free agent predictions from earlier this month did predict the 29-year-old would remain in Minnesota, his relative youth and recent production were factors in our projection of a three-year, $51MM open-market reward.

Even considering Odorizzi’s current status of contemplation, that hypothetical pact still projects as a relatively reasonable package of compensation for an under-30 starter coming off a 2019 season that resounded as a career-best. After two lackluster campaigns in ’17 and ’18, this past season saw the Illinois native record career bests in both strikeout rate (10.1 K/9) and fielding independent metrics (3.36 FIP through 159 innings) while leading a staff that helped secure an AL Central crown.

And, to be fair, it’s not as if Odorizzi’s success was exactly “out of nowhere”: between his 2015 and 2016 seasons with Tampa, the righty notched a 3.53 ERA across 81 starts. For all intents and purposes, Odorizzi’s 2019 breakouts simply seemed like a case of a formerly well-regarded youngster righting the ship after a few seasons of mid-career adjustment; add in a legitimate year-over-year jump in fastball velocity (from an average of 91.1 mph in 2018 to 92.9 mph this past season, per Statcast), and it appeared as if the hurler actually promised something of a value play to teams unwilling to enter the luxury aisle for free agent starting pitchers this offseason.

Odorizzi’s decision suddenly looms as one of the more interesting ripple effects to watch in advance of the QO deadline this afternoon. His return to the Twins would, for one, go a long way toward clearing up the club’s murky rotation picture–even if Odorizzi remains in the fold, the club would likely still need to add one (or perhaps two) starting options. Meanwhile, free agents like Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, and Julio Teheran would seem to gain leverage from having one less arm above them in the open-market pecking order.

Twins Interested In Retaining Sergio Romo

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The Twins are interested in a reunion with right-hander Sergio Romo, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The veteran righty pitched well in Minnesota upon being acquired prior to the July trade deadline but became a free agent at season’s end.

Romo, 37 in March, was acquired alongside minor league righty Chris Vallimont in a trade that sent minor league first baseman Lewin Diaz to the Marlins. Romo had been throwing well in Miami (3.58 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 17 saves in 37 2/3 innings) but was even better in 22 2/3 frames as a Twin. Following the trade to Minnesota, Romo notched a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio with a 3.18 ERA as a high-leverage option for manager Rocco Baldelli.

Minnesota will likely be more focused on starting pitching than the bullpen — the Twins have an eye-opening four rotation vacancies — but there’s room to add a couple of relievers as well. Lefty closer Taylor Rogers enjoyed a breakout season in 2019, and the Twins saw the righty trio of Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and Zack Littell dominate over the season’s final two months. Rookie right-hander Cody Stashak, too, was impressive with a 3.24 ERA and a 25-to-1 K/BB ratio in 25 innings upon being promoted to the big leagues. A lefty could be a more sensible fit given the organization’s lack of a southpaw behind Rogers, but the free-agent market is light on quality options and Romo was terrific against left-handed opponents in 2019.

The 2018-19 offseason was a long one for Romo, who, despite a lengthy track record as a quality late-inning reliever, had to wait until Feb. 15 to sign a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the Marlins. He’s coming off a much better showing in 2019 than he had in 2018, however, and the early interest from the Twins would seem to bode well for a more fruitful trip through the free-agent process this time around. Age may limit Romo to a one-year deal again — although two years isn’t impossible to imagine — but he should be in line for a better guarantee this winter. Beyond his superior 2019 performance, this year’s free-agent market for relievers is thinner than last year’s crop and fewer teams are in pure tank/rebuild mode.

Twins To Extend Derek Falvey, Thad Levine

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3:48pm: In addition to the extension, Falvey’s title has been updated to president of baseball operations, Hayes tweets. Falvey was already the top decision-maker in the organization, but the nomenclature of his previous title, “chief baseball officer,” was rather atypical. This more closely aligns with industry norms and marks a clearer definition of his status both within the Twins organization and in relation to other executives throughout the league.

2:08pm: The Twins have agreed to contract extensions with the top two members of their baseball operations department, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine are set to sign new deals that’ll keep them in the organization through the 2024 season. Both were already under contract through 2021. The news comes less than a week after the organization announced another series of front office promotions.

It’s now been three years since Falvey was brought in to take over Minnesota’s baseball operations department and quickly hired Levine to serve as his top lieutenant. The Twins’ new-look front office duo made some small-scale changes in the 2016-17 offseason, and the 2017 Twins exceeded expectations with a surprise Wild Card berth. The 2018 campaign was a disaster that led to an overhaul of the coaching staff and a series of new additions on one- and two-year deals in the 2018-19 offseason.

The Twins, under Falvey and Levine, hired eventual Manager of the Year Rocco Baldelli to replace Paul Molitor last winter before signing Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop, claiming C.J. Cron off waivers and extending potential cornerstones Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Short-term deals for Martin Perez and Blake Parker proved less fruitful, but the majority of Minnesota’s moves paid off in spades as the Twins spent the bulk of the season in first place and ultimately won the American League Central by a margin of eight games.

The 2019-20 offseason will now bring increased pressure for the team to make impactful additions with an eye toward finally breaking through a near-unthinkable run of postseason futility over the past 15 years. Pitching will be of particular importance, as Jose Berrios is the only rotation member who is under team control; Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and the aforementioned Perez are all free agents. Minnesota’s front office duo spoke last winter of being aggressive once it becomes clear that the team’s window is open, and they’ve already stated that they intend to pursue “impact” pitching this offseason. With extremely minimal payroll commitments on the books in 2020 and 2021 and a fairly modest arbitration class, the Twins are currently more than $50MM south of their club-record payroll (set in 2018), so they certainly have the resources to make good on those intentions.

Rocco Baldelli, Mike Shildt Named Managers Of The Year

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Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and Cardinals manager Mike Shildt have won Manager of the Year honors in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Tuesday evening. (As a reminder, award voting is conducted at the conclusion of the regular season but prior to postseason play.)

The 38-year-old Baldelli narrowly edged out Yankees skipper Aaron Boone. Baldelli and Boone both received 13 first-place votes, but Baldelli’s 13 second-place votes carried more clout than the nine second-place nods for Boone. Rays skipper Kevin Cash finished third on the ballot and landed three first-place votes. Oakland’s Bob Melvin, Houston’s A.J. Hinch and Cleveland’s Terry Francona came in fourth, fifth and sixth place, respectively. Hinch received the lone first-place vote that did not go to Baldelli, Boone or Cash (link to full breakdown of voting).

Baldelli secures Manager of the Year honors in his first season at the helm of a big league club. Hired to step into shoes that were most recently filled by longtime skipper Ron Gardenhire (2002-14) and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor (2015-18), Baldelli represented a significant departure from the organizational norm in Minnesota. His appointment as skipper marked a continuation of a trend toward modern, data-driven decision making in what had long been viewed as one of the game’s most traditional (and at times, insular) organizations.

Baldelli’s Twins shocked baseball by bashing a Major League-record 307 home runs and usurping the American League Central division throne. The “Bomba Squad” reignited the Twin Cities fanbase and brought numerous sellouts to Target Field late in the 2019 season as the Twins charged toward their first division championship since the stadium’s inaugural season back in 2010. Unfortunately, the postseason brought more of the same for the Twins, who were swept away in the ALDS by their postseason nemesis, the Yankees. Still, the 2019 campaign marked a clear return to relevance for the Twins, who are now widely expected to be active players on the offseason trade and free agent markets with an eye toward a deeper playoff push in 2020.

Shildt, 51, won an even tighter race to secure NL Manager of the Year honors. Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell actually took home more first-place votes (13 to 10), but Shildt’s 14 second-place votes (compared to Counsel’s six) gave him a total of 95 points to Counsell’s 88. Atlanta’s Brian Snitker finished third and received three first-place votes, while the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts was fourth place and received four first-place votes of his own. Washington’s Dave Martinez and Arizona’s Torey Lovullo finished fifth and sixth, respectively (full voting breakdown here).

Like Baldelli, Shildt was in his first full season as a big league manager, although he wasn’t a rookie, having taken over the reins of the Cardinals in July 2018 when Mike Matheny was dismissed. Shildt’s Cardinals looked like an NL Central afterthought early in the month of August, sitting at just 58-55 on Aug. 8. However, the Cardinals went on a tear to close out the season, playing at a 33-16 pace down the stretch to overtake both the Brewers and the Cubs en route to an NL Central Championship.

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Eddie Rosario Changes Representation

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Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario has changed agencies, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Roc Nation Sports will represent Rosario going forward.

Rosario, who turned 28 in September, is one of many major leaguers fresh off a career-best season in the power department. Across 590 plate appearances, Rosario smashed 32 home runs, helping the Twins amass a record 307 as a team, and posted a .224 ISO – both personal highs for him since he debuted in 2015. At the same time, though, Rosario struggled more than ever to get on base. He ultimately slashed an uninspiring .276/.300/.500 owing in large part to an inability to draw walks.

While Rosario did strike out at a meager 14.6 percent clip this year, he collected free passes just 3.7 percent of the time. Considering his game’s largely predicated on putting the ball in play, the career-low .273 BABIP Rosario logged was especially deleterious. But if we’re to believe Statcast, Rosario wasn’t really the victim of poor luck in 2019. After all, there was almost no difference between his real weighted on-base average (.329) and his expected wOBA (.330).

Despite his flawed campaign, the counting stats Rosario has put up over the past few years have him in good position as he nears his second-last trip to arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rosario will earn $8.9MM in 2020, though it’s up in the air whether the Twins will retain the three-time 20-home run hitter or attempt to move him in a trade.

Rosario’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Latest On Mets’ Coaching Staff

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The Mets will be interviewing Jeremy Hefner for their pitching coach vacancy on Monday, the Athletic’s Marc Carig reports (subscription required).  Hefner, currently the Twins’ assistant pitching coach, is a familiar name to Mets fans, as the right-hander tossed 224 1/3 innings for New York in 2012-13.

This 50-game stint comprised Hefner’s entire Major League tenure, as his career was derailed by a pair of Tommy John surgeries.  After pitching in the Cardinals’ minor league system in 2016, he decided to hang up his cleats and pursue a post-playing career as an advance scout for Minnesota.  After two years in that role, he became an assistant pitching coach for the Twins in 2019.

Hefner is only 33 years old, almost 49 full years younger than Phil Regan, who worked as the Mets’ interim pitching coach after Dave Eiland was fired in mid-June.  Hefner’s youth and knowledge of analytics make him a “conduit” of a coach, in Carig’s words, able to relate to players as a virtual peer in terms of age and recent playing experience, which helps in presenting analytical information in an easily digestible fashion.

One veteran voice who won’t be in the Mets dugout is Terry Collins, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the former manager isn’t a candidate to be the club’s new bench coach.  There was speculation last week that Collins could serve as an experienced right hand to first-time manager Carlos Beltran, though Collins will instead remain in his current role as a special assistant within the Mets organization.

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