Twins To Hire Mike Bell As Bench Coach
The Twins will hire Diamondbacks farm director/vice president of player development Mike Bell as their new bench coach, per Ken Rosenthal, Zach Buchanan and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be stepping into the void left by Derek Shelton when he was hired as manager of the Pirates. Bell, the younger brother of Reds manager David Bell, was a managerial candidate himself this winter. He interviewed with the Mets and was also reportedly considered for the Pirates gig that eventually went to Shelton.
The 44-year-old also interviewed with both the Rangers and the Orioles last offseason, so it stands to reason that the Twins could be making a hire who’ll draw managerial interest again in the near future. The 2019 season was his third as the Diamondbacks’ farm director, but Bell previously served as the team’s director of player development and spent another three years as a minor league manager. In all, he’s been with the D-backs as a minor league skipper or a front office executive for a total of 13 years.
A former third baseman, Bell was a first-round pick of the Rangers back in 1993 and is the son of five-time MLB All-Star Buddy Bell, who also managed in parts of nine MLB seasons with the Tigers, Rockies and Royals.
Bell isn’t the only notable hire for the Twins in recent days, however. Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball.com tweets that Minnesota has hired UC Santa Barbara hitting coach Donegal Fergus as their new minor league hitting coordinator. The Twins haven’t been shy about dipping into the college coaching ranks to fill out key positions in their organization recently, with second-year pitching coach Wes Johnson (formerly the pitching coach at Arkansas) standing out as the most notable hire to date.
Twins, Sergio Romo Agree To Deal
Dec. 17: Romo’s new deal comes with a $4.75MM salary in 2020, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The 2021 option is valued at $5MM and comes with a $250K buyout, bringing the maximum value to $9.75MM over two years.
Dec. 16: The Twins are nearing a deal with reliever Sergio Romo, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). If and when it’s complete, it’ll be a one-year arrangement that guarantees the Meister Sports client $5MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It seems the pact could grow to $10MM in total value if a 2021 option is exercised, but the precise details still aren’t clear.
Romo gave the Minnesota organization just what it was looking for when he came over in a summer trade. In 27 appearances, he carried a 27:4 K/BB ratio. Including his early-season work with the Marlins, Romo rode his still-biting slider to 60 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA pitching.
Given that Romo will turn 37 before the start of the next season, it’s fair to wonder how much longer he can keep this going. Then again, he has continued to deliver good innings with much the same formula as ever before. And the Twins don’t need to worry about the long haul here. Romo is being paid for his stabilizing presence in the relief corps of a team that fully intends to contend in 2020.
That the value-conscious, analytically inclined Twins front office kept pace with the bidding on Romo is a strong indication that expectations are relatively high. While he isn’t the K/BB monster he once was — he produced seventy of the former and just five of the latter in 2011 — Romo still produced a 13.9% swinging-strike rate last year. Durability isn’t a concern. Over his dozen years in the majors, Romo has thrown 623 frames and carried a 2.92 ERA along the way.
It’s still possible imagine another bullpen move for the Twins, but this fills a big need on the Minnesota roster. That leaves the focus, as ever, on the club’s rotation. With Madison Bumgarner becoming the latest top starter to head elsewhere, and the rival White Sox among the organizations still facing a need in the rotation, the intrigue is perhaps only increasing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Rumors: Ryu, Ozuna, Cards, Twins, Rays, Kendrick
A slew of high-profile free agents have fared better than expected on the open market this winter, which has been the quickest-paced offseason we’ve seen in a while. Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, no doubt the most appealing unsigned starter remaining, could soon ink his own richer-than-anticipated contract. While MLBTR predicted a three-year, $54MM deal for Ryu when the offseason began, there’s now a belief across the industry that he’ll get at minimum a four-year pact worth better than $17MM per annum, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. On at least an annual basis, that type of accord would beat out the five-year, $85MM payday the Diamondbacks handed fellow lefty Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Age (33 in March) and an extensive injury history could work against Ryu’s bid to cash in, but at the same time, there is no question he was one of the majors’ premier starters in 2019. The longtime Dodger fired 182 2/3 innings of 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP ball with 8.03 K/9, 1.18 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate. Ryu rode those numbers to a second-place finish the NL Cy Young balloting, and they could help him to a rich contract in the coming weeks.
- Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated last week the team was still trying to re-sign outfielder Marcell Ozuna. That continues to be the case, according to The Athletic’s Mark Saxon, who tweets that St. Louis remains “engaged in trying to” re-up its most prominent free agent. However, it appears “unlikely” the Cardinals will succeed, Saxon observes. Ozuna’s coming off a pair of productive seasons as a Cardinal, which could aid him in securing a lucrative three- or four-year contract in St. Louis or elsewhere.
- The Twins are interested in Japanese righty Shun Yamaguchi, per Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Teams have until Jan. 2 to negotiate with Yamaguchi, whom the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball posted Dec. 3. Yamaguchi was a starter and a reliever in Japan, so it’s unclear how the Twins will use the 32-year-old if they do sign him. It’s worth noting that even after retaining Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda in recent weeks, the reigning AL Central champions appear to have holes in their rotation.
- Earlier this offseason, playoff hero Howie Kendrick chose to re-sign with the Nationals on a one-year, $6.25MM guarantee. But it turns out the Rays, once the reported front-runners to sign Kendrick, actually outbid the Nationals. They offered the 36-year-old infielder more money and term than Washington gave him, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Kendrick could have been part of the first base/designated hitter mix for the Rays, who just added a potential solution for at least one of those spots in Japanese free agent Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.
Details On Madison Bumgarner’s Agreement With The Diamondbacks
Madison Bumgarner became the latest free agent pitcher to leave the open market, agreeing to a five-year, $85MM deal with the Diamondbacks on Sunday. While reports from earlier this week suggested that Arizona was in the mix, it still raised a lot of eyebrows to see the D’Backs (who weren’t considered likely to either make a big free agent signing or pursue a big-ticket pitcher) wind up as Bumgarner’s new destination. Here’s more on the signing…
- The Diamondbacks were Bumgarner’s top choice in free agency “provided they could pay him at an appropriate level,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) hears from a source close to the left-hander. The $85MM guarantee was enough to get it done, though $15MM of the money is deferred. While it wasn’t quite the five-year/$100MM commitment Bumgarner and his camp were reportedly hoping to land, it could be that the D’Backs came close enough, or — as Rosenthal speculates — perhaps no team was willing to go to nine figures for Bumgarner’s services.
- Rosenthal and his fellow scribes at The Athletic discussed the Bumgarner signing in a roundtable, with Andrew Baggarly noting that new Giants manager Gabe Kapler hadn’t yet spoken with the southpaw as of the Winter Meetings. In Baggarly’s view, that was the sign that Bumgarner wasn’t returning to San Francisco. “If the Giants had legitimate interest, and believed they had a legitimate chance, you can bet that calls and meetings would’ve been set up. Kapler would have begun the back-channeling before he even got the job,” Baggarly writes.
- A counter-argument of sorts is provided by Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links), who reports that the Giants offered Bumgarner a four-year contract in the range of $17MM per year in average annual value. “One of [Bumgarner’s] confidants” believes the lefty would have re-signed with the Giants had they offered him the same deal as Arizona, Schulman writes, except the fifth year might have been enough to pull the D’Backs of San Francisco and perhaps other suitors. Indeed, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link) reports that the Twins were also unwilling to give Bumgarner a fifth year.
- The fact that Bumgarner went to something of a mystery team creates even more of a crunch for teams who were known to be more fervently pursuing rotation help. Ironically, the team that could benefit from this crunch could be the D’Backs themselves. As The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan puts it, “the Diamondbacks may have just created the starting pitching scarcity they need to trade Robbie Ray for his best value.” There has been wide speculation that Ray could be dealt this offseason, as Ray is entering the final year of his contract and is projected to earn $10.8MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility. With Bumgarner now in the fold, the D’Backs could feel enough comfort in their rotation to move Ray and both address other needs while getting his salary off the books at the same time.
- As a final coda on Bumgarner’s tenure with the Giants, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group notes that Bumgarner might not have reached free agency if it weren’t for a pair of injuries — Bumgarner’s infamous dirt biking accident in April 2017, and then the fractured hand suffered on his last Spring Training outing in 2018. In both instances, the Giants were on the verge of broaching extension talks with their longtime ace.
MLBTR Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract
The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.
We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?
Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?
The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.
But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.
In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.
We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?
Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)
How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)
What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)
Twins Remain Engaged With Josh Donaldson
With Anthony Rendon off the market, teams looking for third base upgrades could do a lot worse than Josh Donaldson, the top remaining free agent at the position. The Twins are one of the teams that remains linked to Donaldson, according to Darren Wolfson of SKOR North, though they are perhaps positioned on the periphery of the race to land Donaldson.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal cites the Nationals—who suddenly find themselves lacking at the hot corner with Rendon’s departure—and the Braves as the two frontrunners for the 34-year-old slugger, and as Wolfson notes, Minnesota may struggle to compete with the familiarity the Braves offer or the raw dollar amount the Nats could bring to the table.
Donaldson is said to be seeking a four-year deal, and a team’s willingness to go to that length could very well be the deciding factor for his camp. The Rangers, frequently mentioned as a suitor for Donaldson, have reportedly backed off their pursuit for that very reason, and the first team to concede on that front may wind up with Donaldson. We’ll see just how far Minnesota is willing to go for Donaldson, who would be 37 years old in the fourth year of a hypothetical contract. For what it’s worth, MLBTR predicted in early November that Donaldson would land a three-year deal in his second straight crack at free agency.
The Twins have hardly been ones to make a splash with their spending in recent years, but last year made a savvy signing in the form of Nelson Cruz, who catalyzed an offense that rates among the best in recent memory. And with a fair amount of payroll flexibility this winter, they’ve long been rumored to be players for names like Donaldson or pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. And one could argue that the team’s resources would be better spent on a rotation upgrade, particularly in light of the recent departures of Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez in free agency.
While the market for third basemen appears to be thinning, there’s no shortage of contending teams that could stand to upgrade at the position. That could mean a more competitive market for the likes of Donaldson and trade candidates Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager. Teams who refuse to go to a fourth year for Donaldson and who can’t meet the Cubs’ demands for Bryant could pivot to the likes of Seager or Maikel Franco as cheaper, yet still serviceable, options. For the Twins, keep an eye on those names should Donaldson prove too rich for their blood, though there’s still an outside chance they win the bidding war.
Trade/FA Rumblings: Arenado, Keuchel, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Correa
The Rockies are reportedly willing to listen to offers for their franchise player, third baseman Nolan Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich all but confirmed that’s the case, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays (subscription link).
“Look, this is the time of year where those conversations happen,” Bridich said. “This is the time of year where we at least listen to teams and go, ‘OK, well, should we try to investigate and put something together.’ We have people to do those sorts of things. I can’t sit here and say, ‘No, never, ever.’ Some of this stuff started back at the trade deadline and it’s kind of ongoing.”
Bridich is still of the opinion the Rockies, as presently constructed, can push for a championship in 2020, Groke notes. Arenado, of course, plays an irreplaceable role in that belief. However, with so few above-average third basemen currently available (Josh Donaldson‘s a free agent and Kris Bryant may end up on the move via trade), teams could come calling with appealing offers if the Rockies place Arenado on the block. Arenado has full no-trade rights as part of the seven-year, $234MM extension Colorado signed him to last offseason, though he has expressed frustration regarding the Rockies’ nightmarish 2019. So, if a contender tries to acquire him, perhaps the 28-year-old will be open to leaving the Rockies. Regardless of whether a trade comes together, Arenado has the ability to opt out of his contract after 2021.
Here are more rumblings from around the game…
- A report earlier this week suggested the Cardinals haven’t shown much recent interest in Dallas Keuchel, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club’s “intrigued” by the free-agent left-hander. The Cardinals were also among the teams in on Keuchel last season before he signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves in June, thereby ending a shockingly long stay on the market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old didn’t have a great few months in Atlanta, but he should nonetheless do better in free agency this time. MLBTR predicts he’ll sign a three-year, $39MM pact.
- At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.
- Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.
Twins To Sign Caleb Thielbar
The Twins have agreed to bring hurler Caleb Thielbar back to the organization on a minors deal, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. Further details aren’t known.
All of Thielbar’s MLB experience came in Minnesota between 2013 and 2015. He carried a 2.74 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, in fact. He only carried a 79:30 K/BB ratio but had success at tamping down the long ball and batting average on balls in play.
Since Thielbar’s chances fizzled out with the Twins and he never got another shot elsewhere, it seems there’s quite a lot of doubt as to whether he can really succeed over the long haul in the majors. He ended up spending two years on the indy ball circuit and hasn’t seen the bigs since. But he has been awfully stingy in the upper minors in the past two seasons. Last year, he ran up a 3.22 ERA with an eyebrow-raising 94:16 K/BB ratio over 78 1/3 innings in 51 appearances in the hitter-friendly International League.
Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract
With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.
To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.
It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.
Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.
Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.
Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…
Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Where will Josh Donaldson sign?
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Braves 45% (14,548)
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Nationals 24% (7,695)
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Dodgers 10% (3,316)
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Twins 10% (3,199)
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Rangers 7% (2,218)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,341)
Total votes: 32,317
How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How many guaranteed years will Josh Donaldson get?
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Three years 48% (11,411)
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Four years 43% (10,056)
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Two years 8% (1,795)
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One year 1% (304)
Total votes: 23,566
What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How much money will Josh Donaldson be guaranteed?
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$75-90MM 38% (8,399)
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$90-100MM 23% (5,039)
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$65-75MM 23% (5,023)
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Under $65MM 9% (2,046)
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More than $100MM 8% (1,724)
Total votes: 22,231
AL Central Notes: Donaldson, Edwin, Shaw, Fulmer, Tigers
Some rumblings from the AL Central…
- Reports surfaced a few weeks ago that the Twins “kicked the tires” on Josh Donaldson and other third basemen, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the Twins have continued to show interest in Donaldson’s services. With Anthony Rendon now wearing Angels red, Minnesota will face some stiff competition for the best third baseman remaining on the market, as the Rangers and Nationals are among the clubs who are reportedly set to redirect their efforts towards signing Donaldson are coming up short on Rendon.
- The White Sox have met with Edwin Encarnacion‘s agents, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (Twitter link). After already adding Yasmani Grandal and Nomar Mazara, signing Encarnacion would add even more pop to Chicago’s lineup, as he would pair with Jose Abreu (and Grandal, on days when Grandal isn’t catching) in the first base/DH mix. The Blue Jays are the only other team known to have some interest in Encarnacion this offseason, though Levine reports that Encarnacion’s camp has also met with two other teams, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Encarnacion has received interest from six clubs overall — five in the American League and one in the National League. The mystery NL team made Encarnacion an offer, according to Heyman, though the veteran slugger has said he would prefer to remain in the AL.
- The Tigers are one of the teams interested in Travis Shaw, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter). Shaw was non-tendered by the Brewers last week, as Shaw’s disastrous 2019 season left Milwaukee wary of paying the infielder a projected $4.7MM arbitration salary. In 2017-18, however, Shaw hit .258/.347/.497 with 63 homers over 1193 PA for the Brew Crew, so he could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for several clubs. In particular, a rebuilding team like Detroit could certainly see the rebound potential in Shaw, who can play either corner infield position and also has experience at second base.
- Tigers GM Al Avila provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck) with an update on right-hander Michael Fulmer, who is “on track” in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and “should be able to pitch in games sometime in July.” Fulmer underwent his procedure last March, so a July return would be slightly beyond the normal 12-15 month timeframe for TJ patients, though not by any unusual amount.