Odds & Ends: Alexei Ramirez, Crawford, Hall
Five years ago today, the Blue Jays signed closer B.J. Ryan to a five-year, $47MM deal, the largest ever for a reliever (the contract was later matched in total by Joe Nathan). Ryan gave the Jays two solid seasons, earning his release in '09. Today's links:
- White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez has until Wednesday to decide whether to choose arbitration over a $1.1MM salary for 2011, reports Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune. Even as a first timer Ramirez would certainly beat that, so look for him to choose arbitration unless a multiyear deal can be hammered out. The Sox have four other arbitration eligible players: John Danks, Carlos Quentin, Tony Pena, and Bobby Jenks.
- Carl Crawford's agents at Legacy Sports are sending interested teams iPads with pro-Crawford videos preloaded, reports Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
- Versatile free agent Bill Hall is in play for eight teams, tweets Yahoo's Tim Brown. The Rockies are one interested club, tweets Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. The Yankees may be another, based on a Ken Rosenthal report from earlier this month. Renck believes the Rockies will have interest in Ryan Theriot if he's non-tendered, as well.
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka sounds eager to sign with the Twins, based on press conference quotes passed along by Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
- Scott Boras has a proposal to replace the Rule 5 draft, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports provides the details. Also, Rosenthal previews the rest of the offseason.
Who’s Looking For Starting Pitching?
We're a week from the Winter Meetings, and starting pitchers Jon Garland, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Javier Vazquez, and Jake Westbrook have already signed – three of them with the Dodgers. For the many teams that can't afford Cliff Lee, it's down to Jorge de la Rosa, Carl Pavano, and a field of comeback candidates or back-rotation arms. Let's take a look at which teams are in the market.
- Astros – They subtracted Felipe Paulino, and have been linked to Brandon McCarthy and Jeff Francis. GM Ed Wade explained earlier this month that he'd like to add someone on a one-year deal similar to the Brett Myers contract.
- Athletics – They showed their desire to add starting pitching by bidding $19.1MM for the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma. If they're unable to reach a deal with him by Wednesday of next week, the A's could check out the free agent market. They're known to be interested in McCarthy.
- Brewers – They're in on McCarthy, Francis, and Jarrod Washburn, but are expected to focus on trade possibilities as they look to add a starter or two.
- Cubs – The Cubs have five starters, but could add insurance with Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Harang, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, or Brandon Webb.
- Diamondbacks – They were linked to McCarthy prior to acquiring Zach Duke. With their front four settled, I expect them to worry about other needs.
- Mariners – They've been linked to McCarthy and Jeff Francis, suggesting they're targeting injury comeback candidates.
- Mets – The rumor mill has been quiet, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post can see them getting in on a reclamation-project starter in the new year.
- Nationals – The Nationals are seeking pitching by trade, free agency, or both. They're in on Lee, De La Rosa, Webb, and Pavano at the least.
- Orioles – They apparently have tepid interest in De La Rosa, and have been linked to position players more frequently this offseason.
- Padres – Garland's gone and Kevin Correia is a free agent. The Padres have been linked to McCarthy and will probably seek late bargains.
- Pirates – They seem very likely to sign some kind of free agent starter this winter. They've moved on from Duke and are eyeing Scott Olsen, De La Rosa, Webb, and Francis.
- Rangers – They could move Neftali Feliz to the rotation, but the top priority is signing Lee. If Lee signs elsewhere they're expected to look into Zack Greinke. They're known to be in on Webb, and happen to employ Webb's surgeon Dr. Keith Meister as the team physician.
- Reds – They've been loosely linked to Webb based mainly on geography, but already made a big commitment to Bronson Arroyo and don't have a ton of spending money.
- Rockies – They're likely to add a starter and are in on Webb and Francis. They could also look at trades and lesser free agents, but at least they've added Paulino.
- Royals – The Royals cut Brian Bannister and are interested in Kevin Millwood, to name one option. If Kyle Davies is non-tendered on Thursday that would heighten their need.
- Tigers – They seem content with their rotation options, but they were among the seven clubs linked to McCarthy.
- Twins – They'll need an arm, possibly Pavano. They placed a bid on Iwakuma and have been tied to Webb. Washburn could also work.
- White Sox – They haven't been linked to anyone, and appear to be in good shape even with Jake Peavy missing the beginning of the season given the possibility of moving Chris Sale into the rotation. However, I won't rule Kenny Williams out if he finds one of the aforementioned free agent arms intriguing.
- Yankees – They're the favorites for Lee, and Andy Pettitte might be leaning toward a return. The Yankees are not expected to participate in the next bracket of free agent starters if one of those options falls through, and the trade market is barren if Greinke is off-limits.
- The Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Marlins, Phillies, Rays, and Red Sox have either stayed out of the rumor mill or already made their additions. Still, it would not be a shock for some of these teams to add starting pitching.
Odds & Ends: Tigers, Orioles, Manny, Astros, Uribe
Happy birthday to two former All-Star catchers! Future Hall-of-Famer Ivan Rodriguez turns 39 today, while Angels manager Mike Scioscia turns 52.
Some news items…
- Count Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer as unimpressed by Detroit's contracts with Joaquin Benoit and Jhonny Peralta. Pluto cites Benoit's 4.47 career ERA and Peralta's .696 OPS over his last two seasons.
- The Orioles' failed pursuit of Victor Martinez proves "the issue isn't how much money the Orioles are willing to give somebody. It's whether somebody suitable is willing to take it," writes The Baltimore Sun's Peter Schmuck.
- Mike Axisa of the River Ave Blues blog thinks Manny Ramirez would be a bad fit on the Yankees.
- By the time the sale of the Astros is finalized, the new ownership group should have few salary commitments to deal with, reports Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.
- The Giants are betting that other teams don't value Juan Uribe as highly as they do, says CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban, which is why the club offered the infielder (a Type B free agent) arbitration. San Francisco thinks Uribe won't be able to find a multi-year deal elsewhere and will thus accept arbitration or re-sign for a $5MM, one-year contract. Even if Uribe does leave for another club, at least the Giants would get a draft pick in compensation.
- Urban also notes that the Giants are "tire-kicking" J.J. Hardy and Miguel Tejada as other infield options. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun predicts Tejada will be the best free agent bargain of the winter.
- In his look at the offseason needs of the AL Central clubs, The Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton names Detroit prospects Andy Oliver and Jacob Turner, Minnesota outfield prospects Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere, and Kansas City's Robinson Tejeda and Alex Gordon as young players within the division who could be dealt. (Oliver and Turner only in "major trade talks" since "neither will be cheap.") Dutton adds that Grady Sizemore probably won't be dealt in the winter but "interest should quickly escalate" if Sizemore gets off to a healthy and productive start in 2011.
Twins Rumors: Nishioka, Hardy, De Los Santos
The Twins won the bidding for Tsuyoshi Nishioka earlier today. Here's the latest on the infielder and his impact on Minnesota's offseason plans:
- The Twins see Nishioka as a second baseman rather than a shortstop, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. If the team agrees to sign the 26-year-old, he'll likely compete with Alexi Casilla for the second base job and Orlando Hudson will likely leave via free agency.
- From what Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune can tell, the Twins have decided to tender J.J. Hardy a contract next week, partly since he still appears to have trade value (Twitter link).
- The Twins removed shortstop Estarlin De Los Santos from the 40-man roster and, after he cleared waivers, assigned him to Triple-A, according to Christensen (on Twitter).
Twins Win Bidding For Nishioka
The Twins won the bidding for Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Christensen hears that the Twins won with a $5MM bid, but a source estimated to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the Twins bid roughly $5.3MM (Twitter link). The Twins now have 30 days to work out an agreement with the 26-year-old. If the sides do not reach an agreement, the Chiba Lotte Marines will not receive the posting fee.
The Giants, Dodgers, and Cardinals reportedly had some interest in Nishioka and the Red Sox submitted a bid in the mid-$2MM range, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Last year, the switch-hitter batted .346 with 22 steals and 206 hits. ESPN.com's Keith Law and Patrick Newman of FanGraphs recently explained Nishioka's game in more detail.
The Twins' middle infield is in flux. They could consider trading non-tender candidate J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson is a free agent. Hudson could accept the team's offer of arbitration and return to Minnesota on a one-year deal or decline in search for a multi-year deal on the open market.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Guerrier
Matt Guerrier probably caught a break when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration earlier this week. Fellow Type As Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor and Grant Balfour all got offers of arbitration and will cost picks, but teams can sign the 32-year-old Guerrier without having to surrender a draft choice. Here's a detailed look at his free agent stock:
The Pros
- Guerrier led the league in appearances in 2008-09 and pitched in 74 games this past season.
- He induces more grounders than fly balls.
- His slider is excellent.
- Guerrier has a 2.7 K/BB ratio against right-handed hittters in his career.
- He has just a 1.5 K/BB ratio against left-handed hitters in his career, but he does induce more groundballs against them (55%).
- As mentioned earlier, it won't cost a pick to sign Guerrier.
The Cons
- Defense independent pitching stats like FIP and xFIP suggest Guerrier's 3.17 ERA would have been higher if he had been less lucky in 2010.
- He posted 5.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 last year. That's not spectacular and both rates were better in 2009.
- The free agent market is flush with right-handed relievers, so Guerrier won't have much leverage.
The Verdict
The Twins are one of many teams that could use a steady arm like Guerrier's. MLB.com's Kelly Thesier wrote last month that they seem more likely to retain Guerrier and Jesse Crain than their other free agent relievers.
The market has played out favorably for at least one reliever, but Guerrier doesn't have the gaudy numbers that Joaquin Benoit does. Teams will have interest in someone with a history of effectiveness and durability, but I will be surprised if Guerrier earns more than $4-5MM on a one-year deal.
Odds & Ends: Rasmus, Gilbert, Nishioka, Hoffman
MLBTR wishes all of its American readers a very happy Thanksgiving. For those readers not from the USA…uh, happy Thursday! Onto some news items:
- "Three contending clubs" have a "persisting interest" in Colby Rasmus, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Strauss noted in a follow-up tweet that these are teams with a "new interest," so presumably that eliminates past suitors like the Braves, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and White Sox. The Rasmus rumor mill seemed to have petered out, with the most recent report stating that there was a 99% chance that Rasmus would still be in St. Louis next season.
- Dennis Gilbert will not try to buy the Houston Astros, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com. Gilbert led a group bidding for the Rangers earlier this year and has been rumored to be a potential future ownership candidate for the Dodgers.
- The Twins are "very much in on" Tsuyoshi Nishioka, tweets Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman. We heard last week that Minnesota had an interest in the Japanese infielder.
- When Kevin Towers was general manager of the Padres, he planned to eventually bring Trevor Hoffman back to San Diego so the future Hall-of-Fame closer could retire as a Padre, tweets Fanhouse.com's Tom Krasovic. Though Towers has moved on to Arizona, Krasovic says there's a chance Hoffman could still return to San Diego now that Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta are no longer with the organization.
- Bill James talks to CBSSports.com's Evan Brunell about a variety of topics, including the new Mets front office, the Justin Upton trade rumors and what the Royals should do with Zack Greinke.
- Joe Pawlikowski of the River Ave Blues blog wishes the Derek Jeter negotiations moved as smoothly as Mike Mussina's contract talks with the Yankees after the 2006 season.
Rosenthal On Lee, Konerko, Huff, Burrell, Hudson
The Yankees’ “lack of tact” in their negotiations with Derek Jeter isn’t helping them, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Here are Rosenthal's latest updates on the Yankees and other teams around the league:
- Even Cliff Lee’s representatives would be surprised if the left-hander received a seven-year offer like C.C. Sabathia did.
- The Rangers were in on Victor Martinez “big,” according to Rosenthal.
- The Rangers are talking to Vladimir Guerrero and showing interest in Paul Konerko. The White Sox offered the first baseman arbitration, so it will cost a top pick to sign him.
- The Dodgers showed serious interest in Aubrey Huff before he re-signed with the Giants, according to Rosenthal.
- The Phillies discussed the idea of bringing Pat Burrell back to Philadelphia, but decided against it.
- Type B free agent Orlando Hudson almost certainly agreed in advance to reject the Twins’ offer of arbitration, Rosenthal says. The Twins agreed not to offer the second baseman arbitration if he was a Type A free agent, so Hudson may have agreed not to accept if he ended up a Type B.
- The Marlins have between $3-8MM to spend, depending on which one of Rosenthal’s sources you ask.
- Eric Hinske is close to deciding between the Braves and Brewers, who have both offered him contracts.
American League Free Agent Arbitration Offers
10 American League teams have free agent arbitration offer decisions to make, and we'll group them in this post. For a fantastic customizable chart with all 65 Type A/B free agents and their decisions in real-time, click here.
- The Blue Jays offered arbitration to Scott Downs (A) Jason Frasor (A) Kevin Gregg (B) Miguel Olivo (B), according to MLB.com's Gregor Chisolm (on Twitter).
- The Twins offered arbitration to Carl Pavano (A), Jesse Crain (B) and Orlando Hudson (B) and declined to offer arbitration to Matt Guerrier (A), Brian Fuentes (B) and Jon Rauch (B), according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (on Twitter).
- The Rays offered arbitration to Grant Balfour (A), Carl Crawford (A), Rafael Soriano (A), Randy Choate (B), Brad Hawpe (B) and Chad Qualls (B), according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. They did not offer Dan Wheeler (A) or Carlos Pena (B) arbitration. It seems possible that Hawpe has agreed in advance to turn down arbitration.
- The Orioles won't offer arbitration to Koji Uehara (B) or Kevin Millwood (B), according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter links).
- The Angels declined to offer Hideki Matsui (B) arbitration, the team announced.
- The Rangers offered arbitration to Cliff Lee (A) and Frank Francisco (A), but not to Vladimir Guerrero (A) and Bengie Molina (A), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
- The Yankees will offer arbitration to Javier Vazquez (B), but not to any of their other free agents, according to Ken Davidoff of Newsday on Twitter. Andy Pettitte (A), Derek Jeter (A), Mariano Rivera (A), Lance Berkman (B) and Kerry Wood (B) were the team's other ranked free agents. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that the Yankees would offer Vazquez arbitration and noted that the right-hander has agreed to reject the offer, a common gentleman's agreement that can take place with Type B free agents. Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger first reported on Twitter that the Yankees would not offer Jeter arbitration.
- The Red Sox offered arbitration to Adrian Beltre (A), Victor Martinez (A) and Felipe Lopez (B), but not to Mike Lowell (B) or Jason Varitek (B), according to the team.
- The White Sox offered arbitration to Paul Konerko (A) and J.J. Putz (B), but not to A.J. Pierzynski (A) or Manny Ramirez (A) according to the team (on Twitter).
- As expected, the Tigers announced that they will not offer arbitration to any of their free agents, including Scott Boras clients Magglio Ordonez (A), Johnny Damon (B), and Gerald Laird (B).
21 Teams Facing Tomorrow’s Arbitration Deadline
21 of baseball's 30 teams must make at least one decision prior to tomorrow's deadline for offering arbitration to free agents. The Rays lead with nine eligible Type A or B free agents, six of which are relievers. We'll have predictions and polls later today, but here's a team-by-team look.
- Rays: Grant Balfour (A), Carl Crawford (A), Rafael Soriano (A), Dan Wheeler (A), Joaquin Benoit (B), Randy Choate (B), Brad Hawpe (B), Carlos Pena (B), Chad Qualls (B). Benoit has already signed with the Tigers, so he's a lock for an offer. I think Hawpe, Pena, and Qualls are the three who will not get offers, though I'm on the fence on Wheeler.
- Twins: Matt Guerrier (A), Carl Pavano (A), Jesse Crain (B), Brian Fuentes (B), Orlando Hudson (B), Jon Rauch (B). I think Fuentes is the only one of the six not to get an offer, but it is possible the Twins don't want to risk having some of the other players under contract for 2011.
- Yankees: Derek Jeter (A), Andy Pettitte (A), Mariano Rivera (A), Lance Berkman (B), Javier Vazquez (B), Kerry Wood (B). Jeter is the interesting case here. In Joel Sherman's November 10th article, he wrote that of a dozen executives polled there was a split but the majority thought Jeter would be offered arbitration.
- Blue Jays: Scott Downs (A), Jason Frasor (A), John Buck (B), Kevin Gregg (B), Miguel Olivo (B). I can see all five getting offers, though Frasor may not if the Jays consider him accepting to be a negative outcome. Between offers made last year and the trade for Olivo, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has been aggressive in courting draft picks.
- Padres: Miguel Tejada (A), Kevin Correia (B), David Eckstein (B), Jon Garland (B), Yorvit Torrealba (B). We don't have a history to look at with Jed Hoyer, but I can see Garland and Torrealba getting offers.
- Rangers: Frank Francisco (A), Vladimir Guerrero (A), Cliff Lee (A), Bengie Molina (A). I'm leaning toward only Lee getting an offer, though a case can be made for Francisco.
- Red Sox: Adrian Beltre (A), Victor Martinez (A), Felipe Lopez (B), Jason Varitek (B). It'd be risky to offer arbitration to Varitek, while Beltre and Martinez are locks for offers. Lopez was seemingly acquired entirely for a chance at a supplemental pick, though some doubt he'd turn down an arbitration offer and sign a big league deal elsewhere.
- White Sox: Paul Konerko (A), A.J. Pierzynski (A), Manny Ramirez (A), J.J. Putz (B). Putz is a good bet for an offer; Manny has no chance. Konerko and Pierzynski are borderline cases – the Sox would probably like both players back, but perhaps not at the salaries they could earn by accepting arbitration. Kenny Williams did offer arbitration to a highly paid free agent he did not want after the '08 season with Orlando Cabrera, and after turning down the offer Cabrera didn't sign until March due to the draft pick cost.
- Tigers: Magglio Ordonez (A), Johnny Damon (B), Gerald Laird (B). These three Scott Boras clients are unlikely to receive offers.
- Diamondbacks: Aaron Heilman (B), Adam LaRoche (B). Heilman at $3MM or so wouldn't be the end of the world, but Kevin Towers has many needs to fill and might have other plans for his bullpen. I can also see LaRoche going either way.
- Dodgers: Rod Barajas (B), Scott Podsednik (B). Ned Colletti has not offered arbitration to his free agents in recent years, but the team seems happy with both players and they're operating off small salaries.
- Giants: Aubrey Huff (B), Juan Uribe (B). The Giants will attempt to retain both players, and there's no reason not to offer arbitration.
- Phillies: Jayson Werth (A), Chad Durbin (B). Werth's a lock and Durbin seems likely. The Phillies want to retain Durbin, but the only thing that gives me pause is that they did not offer arbitration to Jamie Moyer after the '08 season.
- Reds: Arthur Rhodes (A), Orlando Cabrera (B). Rhodes should get an offer but the Reds may prefer not to be tied to Cabrera at this point.
- Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa (A), Octavio Dotel (B). De La Rosa will get an offer, but Dotel probably will not.
- Angels: Hideki Matsui (B). I don't expect an offer.
- Braves: Derrek Lee (A). I don't expect an offer.
- Brewers: Trevor Hoffman (B). No chance of an offer.
- Mets: Pedro Feliciano (B). An offer makes sense for the lefty.
- Nationals: Adam Dunn (A). He seems a lock for an offer, though Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks chose not to make one to him after the '08 season.
- Orioles: Kevin Millwood (B), Koji Uehara (B). Millwood won't get an offer. Uehara is eligible to be offered arbitration, Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tells me. However, I don't think the Orioles will choose to do so.