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Twins Have Reportedly Made Multiple Offers To Carlos Correa

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Arguably the biggest question for the Twins this offseason is how they’ll address shortstop. Minnesota’s shocking Spring Training signing of Carlos Correa solved the position for the 2022 campaign, but it’s again up in the air after the two-time All-Star opted out of the final two years on his contract.

That Correa’s now back on the open market puts Minnesota in competition with the league for his services. Twins ownership and the front office has spoken about their desire to bring him back, although they’re up against traditionally bigger spenders. Unlike last offseason, when the former first overall pick settled for a three-year guarantee to secure the highest per-year salary for a free agent position player in MLB history, he’s expected to command a long-term deal this winter.

During a recent appearance on the Talk North podcast, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested the Twins have put forth contract offers of varying lengths to Correa. Neal indicates Minnesota’s proposals range from six to ten years with differing average salaries in each. The shorter-term offers would surely feature higher annual payouts, with the comparatively lesser length reducing the team’s longer-term risk.

Financial terms of the proposals aren’t clear, but it’s notable Minnesota is ostensibly willing to make a long-term commitment to play at the top of the market. The Twins signed Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184MM extension in March 2010 but have otherwise only reached or narrowly exceeded a nine-figure guarantee twice ($105.3MM for Correa and $100MM for Byron Buxton, both last offseason). A Correa deal of six-plus years would almost certainly set a new high-water mark for the organization, even if the contract contained one or more opt-out chances.

Correa is the #2 free agent of this winter in MLBTR’s estimation, predicted for a nine-year deal worth $288MM. Headed into his age-28 campaign, he’s still the youngest of the four top open market options at the position. Dansby Swanson is going into his age-29 season, while Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts will each spend most of next season at 30 years old. Correa narrowly led that group with a .467 slugging mark this past season, while Bogaerts finished first with a .377 on-base percentage. On a rate basis, Correa was the top offensive player by measure of wRC+, although a pair of minimal injured list stints for a finger contusion and a battle with COVID-19 kept him to 590 plate appearances.

While retaining Correa figures to be the Twins’ ideal course of action, Neal relays that Bogaerts would be Minnesota’s secondary target. Dan Hayes of the Athletic similarly suggested earlier this month the Twins were likely to pivot to the longtime Red Sox star if Correa were to land elsewhere. Boston has consistently maintained a desire to keep Bogaerts, while he’s also drawn some reported interest from the Phillies.

The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last week, at least mitigating the need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency if they come up empty on their pursuit of the top four shortstops. Farmer’s a competent defender coming off a .255/.315/.386 showing during his final season in Cincinnati. His presence raises the floor at the position, but he’s certainly capable of assuming a utility role off the bench if the Twins make an impact move.

Minnesota presently projects for a 2023 payroll around $98MM, per Roster Resource. They have just over $19MM in guaranteed commitments by 2024. Minnesota opened this past season with player spending a bit above $134MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There’s pretty clear flexibility to make a significant investment at the shortstop position, although the front office will have to weigh that course of action against their desire to upgrade in the bullpen, behind the dish and in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.

The Opener: Hall of Fame, Twins, Angels

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As Friday’s non-tender deadline enters the rear-view mirror and the offseason rolls along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

The official Hall of Fame ballot for 2023 is set to be released today, and for the first time in 10 years, it won’t have Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Curt Schilling on it. Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez will be eligible for the first time in 2023, while Jeff Kent enters his final year of eligibility. Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner each received over 50% of the vote last year, and could be names to watch this year in addition to the newcomers. While Alex Rodriguez will enter his second year of eligibility in 2023, he’ll need a massive showing on this year’s ballot to get on the radar for Cooperstown consideration after just a 34.3% showing in his inaugural year on the ballot. Although Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling won’t be on this year’s ballot, they could still join the Hall of Fame in 2023, as the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will consider the three of them (as well as five others) during the Winter Meetings in December.

2. Will The Twins Re-Sign Correa?

The Twins made a few major changes to their infield mix before Friday’s non-tender deadline, as they shipped Gio Urshela out in a trade with the Angels while swinging a deal to bring in Kyle Farmer from the Reds. If no further changes to the infield mix are made, Minnesota would likely start the season with Jose Miranda at third base, Jorge Polanco at second, and Luis Arraez at first, with Farmer set to hold down shortstop until Royce Lewis returns from injury. With Lewis set to return sometime next season and 2022 draftee Brooks Lee already at Double-A, the Twins could conceivably be content to hand Farmer the keys to the position, transitioning him to more of a utility role once one of the youngsters is ready to displace him. There’s been mutual interest in a Correa reunion, but with big-market teams such as the Dodgers, Cubs, and Giants rumored to be looking to land a shortstop, it’s easy to see how the Twins could lose a bidding war. Still, it seems unlikely that the acquisition of a possible stopgap at shortstop would change Minnesota’s plans much with regards to Correa. Darren Wolfson of KSTP and 1500 SKOR North chatted with Twins president/CEO Dave St. Peter and center fielder Byron Buxton (video link) about the potential for a Correa reunion at last week’s event to unveil new Twins uniforms. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote earlier in the month that the Twins would likely pursue Xander Bogaerts in the event that Correa signs elsewhere.

3. What’s Next For Angels After Urshela?

On the other end of the Urshela deal, the Angels have a more stable infield mix following his acquisition. Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh figure to get the lion’s share of starts at the corners, assuming their injury woes in 2022 don’t follow them into next season. That leaves Urshela, David Fletcher, and Luis Rengifo to mix and match between second base, shortstop, and filling in at the corners. A prominent shortstop addition still remains possible, but the Angels can also turn their attention to the outfield, where they currently project to send out Jo Adell in left, Mike Trout in center, and Taylor Ward in right. While such an outfield configuration would be far from a disaster, after a trade of Brandon Marsh to the Phillies, the Angels lack depth; currently, Mickey Moniak projects to be their fourth outfielder. Trout will lock up center when healthy, but adding a corner bat to provide protection against continued struggles from Adell would make sense. A lefty such as David Peralta would help the Angels balance their righty-heavy outfield mix, though speculatively speaking, Trey Mancini could be an interesting fit as a player who can play the outfield corners while also providing Walsh platoon protection at first base. Both the Urshela trade and the recent signing of Tyler Anderson have deepened the Angels’ roster while leaving the door open for further moves of note. Deepening the outfield mix in similar fashion would be a sensible next step.

AL Central Notes: Buxton, Jones, Guardians, Tigers

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After undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in late September, Byron Buxton told reporters (including Michael Rand of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that he has now been cleared to run.  The Twins outfielder won’t be entirely sure of his status until he starts running and can properly test his knee strength, but “I’m on a good plan to be prepared for Spring Training.  For me it’s all about following and sticking to that plan, not trying to overdo it.”

The recovery process seems to be on pace with the 6-8 week timeline initially projected for the surgery in September.  While the arthroscopic procedure was relatively minor, it marks yet another injury in Buxton’s lengthy health history.  Knee and hip problems limited Buxton to 92 games in 2022, yet that still matched the second-highest games total of Buxton’s eight Major League seasons.  His first-half performance (before the injuries really started to impact his play) still netted Buxton his first All-Star nod, and he hit .224/.306/.526 with 28 homers over his 382 plate appearances.  It remains to be seen if Buxton can ever stay healthy enough to fully contribute over an entire season, but even a reduced version is still an important part of Minnesota’s plans to return to contention.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Guardians dealt Nolan Jones to the Rockies earlier this week, ending the Cleveland tenure of a player who once considered the Guards’ top prospect.  Jones was a top-100 staple as recently as 2021, but might’ve been the victim of a position crunch, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  Jones’ original position of third base was already locked up at the MLB level by Jose Ramirez, and the Guardians moved Jones to the outfield in the minors, he suddenly found himself in competition with a new surge of young outfielders coming up through the pipeline.  An increasing strikeout rate was also a problem for Jones, as one scout told Hoynes that Jones’ swing-and-miss problems were somewhat reminiscent of Bradley Zimmer — a rather ominous comp, given Zimmer’s inability to produce much offense at the Major League level.
  • New president of baseball operations Scott Harris has been tasked with both improving the Tigers’ win-loss record and improving the organization as a whole, with a particular focus on improving how the Tigers find and develop young talent in the domestic draft and in the international signing market.  The Detroit News’ Lynn Henning outlines some of the criticisms directed at the Tigers front office under former GM Al Avila, and what Harris, new assistant GM Rob Metzler and new amateur scouting director Mark Conner bring to the table in upgrading the farm system.

Twins Acquire Kyle Farmer

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The Reds and Twins agreed on a Friday evening trade sending infielder Kyle Farmer from Cincinnati to Minnesota. The Reds landed right-hander Casey Legumina in return. Farmer is second year arbitration-eligible, and is projected to make $5.9MM, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ predictions.

Farmer, 32, turned in a solid, if unspectacular, season for the Reds, batting .255/.315/.386 with 14 home runs. That was good for a wRC+ of 90, or ten percent worse than league average. He split time between short (98 games) and third base (36 games), grading out better at third where he was worth two Outs Above Average, against -3 at shortstop.

Originally drafted as a catcher in the eighth round of the 2013 draft by the Dodgers, Farmer made his debut 2017 with L.A. He’d go on to make 97 plate appearances over the next two seasons, working mostly at catcher and third base, before going to the Reds as part of a blockbuster deal involving Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood.

The Reds used him in 15 games at catcher in 2019, but he mostly bounced around the infield positions and that wound up being the last of his time behind the plate. He’d spent the next couple of seasons as a utility infielder before winning their starting shortstop job for 2021. While he turned in a .263/.316/.416 line with 16 home runs that year, he did play some above-average defense, earning six Outs Above Average.

While Farmer’s numbers have never really stood out, he’s generally been a sound contributor and has been worth 3.3 fWAR across 292 games over the past couple of seasons. He can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons, so he won’t reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign.

It’s the second major trade of the day for the Twins, after they shipped out Gio Urshela and his projected $9.2MM salary. Urshela was a bit more valuable for the Twins last year (2.4 fWAR), but Farmer offers a saving of around $3MM, and greater positional flexibility. It’s entirely possible Farmer returns to a utility role in Minnesota. With Urshela out the door, the Twins could well go with Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez at the corners, with Jorge Polanco at second. That’d mean either Farmer or an external addition at shortstop, but regardless, the arrival of Farmer gives them a bit more flexibility there.

Legumina started 2022 at High-A but spent much of the season at Double-A. He struggled as a starter, making 16 starts this year with a 5.23 ERA, striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings. As a result of his struggles, the Twins moved him to the bullpen and he immediately stood out. There, the 25-year-old threw 22 1/3 innings of 3.57 ERA, with his strikeouts rising to 12.7 per nine innings. Legumina has a four pitch mix, combining a mid-90s fastball with a slider, changeup and curveball.

The eighth round draft pick from 2019 was added to the Twins 40-man roster a few days ago ahead of the Rule 5 draft protection deadline, so he’ll take a spot on the Reds 40-man moving forward as well.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of the Athletic first reported the Reds and Twins were in agreement on a trade sending Farmer to Minnesota. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic was first to report Cincinnati would receive Legumina in return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Tender Contract To Emilio Pagán

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The Twins have tendered a contract to reliever Emilio Pagán, per Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

The news comes as at least a mild surprise, given Pagán’s struggles in recent years. The righty had a strong season with Tampa in 2019, posting a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings with a 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. Unfortunately, the three subsequent seasons have been much less impressive for him. He went to the Padres prior to 2020 as part of the Manuel Margot trade but posted a 4.50 ERA that year while his strikeout rate dropped to 26.4% and his walk rate jumped to 10.3%. That might have been written off as an aberration from the bizarre circumstances of the pandemic year, but he posted a 4.83 ERA in 2021 despite dropping his walk rate to 6.8%.

He came to the Twins prior to 2022 in the Chris Paddack and Taylor Rogers trade. However, the change of scenery didn’t do him much good. He put up a 4.43 ERA on the year with his walk rate jumping back up to 9.5%. If the Twins saw reasons to be encouraged, it might have been with his strikeout rate jumping to 30.7% and his ground ball rate getting to 40.4%, that latter number being a career high. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $3.7MM in his final year before reaching free agency. He and the club have until January 13 to exchange figures in advance of a hearing, though they could agree to terms prior to that date.

Angels Acquire Gio Urshela From Twins

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The Angels bolstered their infield depth on non-tender day, announcing the acquisition of Gio Urshela from the Twins. Pitching prospect Alejandro Hidalgo lands in Minnesota on a one-for-one swap.

It’s the second consecutive offseason in which Urshela finds himself on the move. Minnesota acquired him alongside Gary Sánchez in the Spring Training blockbuster that sent Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees. The deal was in large part about offloading the final three years of Donaldson’s contract, but Sánchez and Urshela each played key roles on the 2022 club.

Urshela, 31, spent the year as the Twins’ primary third baseman. He hit .285/.338/.429 with 13 home runs and 27 doubles across 551 trips to the plate. It was a step up from the .267/.301/.419 showing he’d posted during his final season in the Bronx, particularly when one considers offense around the league dropped from 2021 to ’22. Urshela cut his strikeout rate from a career-worst 24.7% to just 17.4%, making contact on an above-average 81% of his swings.

The Colombian-born infielder now owns a .290/.336/.463 line in over 1600 plate appearances since breaking out in 2019. He’s a quality contact hitter with solid gap power who has twice topped 25 doubles in a season. Urshela has only once topped 14 longballs, when he hit 21 during a 2019 season that featured an especially lively ball, and he doesn’t draw many walks. Yet he consistently hits for solid batting averages with enough doubles to make a decent impact from a power perspective. Overall, his offensive production over the last four years has been 18 percentage points better than the league average, in the measure of wRC+.

Urshela has a strong defensive reputation, although he’s gotten mixed reviews from public metrics for his glovework. Defensive Runs Saved has typically been fond of his work, pegging him as a cumulative five runs better than average at the hot corner over the last four seasons. Statcast has been far more bearish, rating him as below average each season and pegging him a total of 14 runs below par. Its Outs Above Average metric has docked Urshela for his lateral range in both directions.

The general perception of Urshela’s glovework seems to lead more towards him being an average to slightly above-average defender. It’d appear the Halos feel similarly, as it’s possible he ends up assuming a more demanding position in Anaheim than he has in his previous stops. The Angels have Anthony Rendon locked in at third base, and while the two-time Silver Slugger award winner has battled his share of injury issues in recent years, he’ll surely be in the lineup most days when healthy.

That’d seem to point towards Urshela getting more action in the middle infield, particularly at shortstop. The Angels got almost no offensive production at shortstop this past season, with Andrew Velazquez taking the bulk of the workload. Anaheim has David Fletcher to man one of the middle infield positions, with the bulk of his MLB experience coming at second base. Urshela looks as if he’ll be penciled in as the primary shortstop, where he has just 288 career innings at the highest level. That’d push Luis Rengifo into a utility role, but Urshela would be capable of kicking back over to third base if Rendon battles renewed injury concerns.

Urshela’s a short-term solution, as he has between five and six years of major league service. He’s in his final season of arbitration eligibility and will be a free agent at the end of the 2023 campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $9.2MM salary, which’ll bring the Halos’ projected payroll up past $181MM, per Roster Resource. That’s not far off their approximate $188MM Opening Day mark from this past season, which was a franchise record. With owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the franchise, it’s not clear how much budgetary space is available for general manager Perry Minasian and his staff. They’re clearly attempting to reload in an effort at snapping their playoff drought, previously adding starter Tyler Anderson on a three-year, $39MM free agent deal that also cost them a draft choice.

The Twins subtract from the big league roster, but they figure to allocate the money they would have had to commit to Urshela to upgrades elsewhere on the roster. As MLBTR explored last month, dealing the veteran to free some payroll space looked like a possibility in light of their infield depth.

Minnesota has young corner infielder José Miranda capable of stepping in at the hot corner after a .268/.325/.426 showing in 483 plate appearances as a rookie. The 24-year-old has some defensive question marks, but he came up through the minor league ranks as a third baseman. He spent the bulk of his innings at first base this year, but kicking him back up the defensive spectrum could allow them to incorporate players like Alex Kirilloff and Luis Arraez more often at first. It also opens the possibility of the Twins dipping into free agency or trade for a traditional first base/DH slugger.

Minnesota also adds a young arm to the lower levels of the farm system. Hidalgo is a 19-year-old righty out of Venezuela. He made 10 starts with the Angels’ Low-A affiliate in Inland Empire, allowing a 4.62 ERA across 39 innings. Hidalgo struck out an excellent 33.1% of opposing hitters, but a 10.9% walk rate demonstrates he’s still battling control issues common for teenage hurlers. Baseball America slotted him 18th in the Angels system midseason, praising a potentially plus curveball and writing that his fastball reaches into the mid-90s. He’s a lower-level developmental flier who’ll need to be added to Minnesota’s 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft at the end of the 2023 season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels were acquiring Urshela for Hidalgo.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Select Four Players

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The Twins announced this evening they’ve selected four players onto the 40-man roster to prevent them from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Joining the roster are infielder Edouard Julien and pitchers Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick and Casey Legumina.

Julien was an 18th-round draftee out of Auburn in 2019. He’s hit very well in the minor leagues the last two years, including a .300/.441/.490 line with 17 home runs across 508 plate appearances at Double-A Wichita. The Quebec native walked in a stellar 19.3% of his plate appearances against a manageable 24.6% strikeout rate. He’s played each of second, third and first base and gotten some time in left field. Better suited for a corner, Julien’s a bat-first utility prospect. He checked in 10th on Minnesota’s midseason farm rankings at Baseball America.

Canterino went in the second round of the same draft coming out of Rice. The right-hander has an intriguing four-pitch mix but hasn’t logged many professional innings after spending time on the injured list in each of his seasons. He tossed 34 1/3 innings through 11 outings with Wichita this year, posting a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.7% strikeout rate but walking 15.3% of opponents.

Headrick, 25 next month, was a ninth-rounder in 2019 from Illinois State. The 6’6″ left-hander split the year between High-A Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He combined for a 3.32 ERA through 108 1/3 innings, fanning just under 31% of opponents with only a 5.7% walk percentage.

Legumina was an 8th-rounder in that class out of Gonzaga. The 25-year-old joined Headrick in splitting his season between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He posted a 4.80 ERA while working primarily in multi-inning relief. Legumina struck out roughly 24% of opponents with a 9.4% walk percentage.

Twins, Kyle Garlick Avoid Arbitration

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The Twins and outfielder Kyle Garlick have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Garlick will make a salary of $750K, pre Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com.

Garlick, 31 in January, was outrighted off the Twins’ roster a year ago but earned his way back on by the middle of April. He only got into 66 games on the season due to various injuries. He went to the IL four times, with the causes ranging from a right calf strain, a left hamstring strain, a right ribcage contusion and a left wrist sprain.

Despite all those ailments, he was still able to be an above-average hitter at the plate on the season. He hit nine home runs in that limited playing time and produced an overall batting line of .233/.284/.433. That amounted to a wRC+ of 104, indicating he was 4% better than the league average hitter. The Twins likely envision him for a platoon role, as he was much better against lefties. Six of his nine homers were against southpaws and his overall production against them finished at .243/.305/.500, wRC+ of 128. Against righties, it was just .224/.263/.368 and a wRC+ of 79.

The Twins have a couple of lefties in their outfield mix in Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Given Garlick’s abilities with the platoon advantage, he could take some at-bats away from that crew from time to time. All three of them also made multiple trips to the IL in 2022 and could create a larger opening for Garlick if they got hurt. There’s also the oft-injured Byron Buxton in the mix in center, creating another reason for the Twins to keep Garlick around as depth.

Garlick qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player, his first time being eligible for the process. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Garlick for a salary of $1.1MM but he has settled for less than that. It’s not uncommon for such deals to come out at this time of year. Thursday is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not they will tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. Garlick was a candidate to be non-tendered and sent back to free agency but has instead agreed to a salary with a modest raise.

Last year’s minimum was $700K and next year’s will be $720K, meaning Garlick gets a small bump and the Twins have secured a player they could find useful at a rate barely above minimum. Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, arbitration salaries weren’t guaranteed until Opening Day but the new CBA does guarantee them as long as the player doesn’t go to a hearing. That means Garlick has that $750K locked in.

Cody Stashak Elects Free Agency

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The Twins sent reliever Cody Stashak through outright waivers, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. The right-hander has elected minor league free agency, tweets Dan Hayes of the Athletic. That’s his right as a player with more than three years of major league service.

Stashak has been a decent lower-leverage option for manager Rocco Baldelli over the past few years. He’s appeared in each of the last four seasons, although he’s only managed between 15 and 25 frames in each. In three of the four years, Stashak put up a sub-4.00 ERA with an above-average strikeout rate. The 2021 campaign was a disaster, but he bounced back with 16 1/3 frames of 3.86 ERA ball this year. He’d punched out 15 and hadn’t issued a single walk through May 22, but an impingement in his throwing shoulder sent him to the injured list.

The Twins announced a few weeks later he’d need surgery to fix a labrum tear. That ended his season, and he spent the second half of the year on the 60-day injured list. With the IL officially going away at the start of the offseason, Minnesota had to reinstate him onto the 40-man roster to keep him around. They’ve opted against doing so, instead cutting him loose.

Stashak has between three and four years of service, so he’d have been eligible for arbitration for the first time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for an $800K salary that’s barely above the league minimum, but the Twins weren’t prepared to carry Stashak on the roster all winter after his surgery. His departure leaves Minnesota with 36 players on the roster heading into next week’s deadline to add prospects to the 40-man in order to keep them from Rule 5 draft eligibility.

If Stashak’s healthy, he’ll be a solid strike-throwing arm for clubs looking to bolster their bullpen depth. He’s likely to land a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation.

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