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Red Sox Claim Caleb Hamilton, Designate Abraham Almonte

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The Red Sox have claimed catcher Caleb Hamilton off waivers from the Twins, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com. Outfielder Abraham Almonte was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move. Chris Cotillo of MassLive confirmed the transactions (on Twitter).

Hamilton changes organizations for the first time in his career. The Oregon State product entered the professional ranks as a late-round Twins draftee back in 2016. He’s spent seven years climbing the minor league ladder and was rewarded with his first big league call when Ryan Jeffers landed on the injured list in mid-July. He appeared in 22 MLB games but only started four times and tallied 23 plate appearances. He struck out in 14 of them, an obviously untenable rate. He did, however, collect his first big league hit — a solo homer off José Quijada.

The 27-year-old spent the majority of the season at Triple-A St. Paul, where he had a solid showing. Over 251 plate appearances, he hit .233/.367/.442 with 11 home runs. He went down on strikes 26.7% of the time and didn’t post a particularly impressive batting average, but he showed the best power of his professional career and worked walks at a stellar 17.1% clip. That patient plate approach is clearly of some interest to the Red Sox, who add Hamilton to Reese McGuire, Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez as backstops on the 40-man roster.

Hamilton only exhausted his first of three minor league options this year. If he holds his spot on the 40-man roster, the Sox can shuttle him between Boston and Triple-A Worcester for the foreseeable future. He’s still three years away from arbitration eligibility, so he’d be an affordable depth option for the Red Sox if they devote him a 40-man position.

Almonte is a journeyman who has gotten to the majors in each of the past nine years. He cracked Boston’s roster after the team had fallen out of contention in September, appearing in 15 games down the stretch. The switch-hitter picked up nine hits, including a homer, in 37 plate appearances. Still, it never seemed likely the Red Sox would tender him an arbitration contract this offseason. His projected $900K salary wasn’t onerous, but he always looked like a temporary stopgap for the season’s final few weeks.

The Red Sox will place Almonte on waivers in the next few days. He’s virtually certain to clear and elect free agency, as is his right as a player with more than five years of MLB service. The 33-year-old is coming off a .293/.417/.534 showing in Triple-A, so he shouldn’t have an issue finding another minor league opportunity with a Spring Training invitation this winter.

Orioles Claim Jake Cave, Designate Jake Reed

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The Orioles have claimed outfielder Jake Cave off waivers from the Twins, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. Baltimore is designating reliever Jake Reed for assignment in a corresponding move. Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com confirms the news (Twitter link).

Cave has played parts of five big league seasons, all of them with Minnesota. He was initially drafted by the Yankees but dealt to the Twins before making his major league debut in 2018. The former sixth-round pick played well in part-time action during his first two seasons, hitting 21 home runs over 163 games. He’s had a tougher go over the last three seasons, largely due to increasing issues making contact. Dating back to the start of the 2020 campaign, Cave owns a .206/.262/.351 line in 478 trips to the plate.

The Twins ran Cave through outright waivers last offseason, but he made it back to the majors in early August. He posted a .213/.260/.384 showing with five homers in 54 games, swinging through 17% of pitches he saw. It wasn’t a great big league showing, but the 29-year-old had been very impressive during a longer run with Triple-A St. Paul. Cave popped 14 homers in 373 plate appearances with the Saints, posting an overall .273/.370/.509 line. His 24.9% strikeout rate was still a bit higher than average, but he showed solid power and walked at a strong 11.5% rate.

Cave adds some left-handed hitting outfield depth to Baltimore’s ranks, at least for the moment. He has a fair bit of experience at all three spots on the grass, although public metrics haven’t been fond of his work in center field. He’s a career .243/.314/.430 hitter against right-handed pitching, and he’s been essentially unplayable (.210/.240/.352) in 230 plate appearances against southpaws.

With between three and four years of major league service time, Cave is eligible for arbitration through 2024. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.2MM salary if tendered a contract. It’s possible Baltimore still elects to non-tender him next month (perhaps with hopes of re-signing him to a cheaper or minor league deal), but they’ll add him to the 40-man roster for the time being. Cave still has one minor league option year remaining, so the O’s could keep him at Triple-A Norfolk next year if he holds his spot on the 40-man.

Reed is a recent waiver claim himself, having been added from the Dodgers five weeks ago. The low-slot righty made eight appearances with the O’s, allowing six runs (four earned) in 5 2/3 innings. He suited up with three different teams overall in 2022, also pitching for the Mets and Dodgers. Between the trio of clubs, the 30-year-old posted a 7.02 ERA with a modest 16.9% strikeout rate in 16 2/3 frames.

Despite his lack of major league success, Reed has been a fairly frequent target for teams once he’s hit the waiver wire. That’s in large part thanks to his solid Triple-A track record, as he owns a 3.84 ERA through parts of six seasons at that level. Reed has fanned an above-average 25.6% of batters faced there while walking 9.5% of opponents.

Reed will hit the waiver wire again in the coming days. Like Cave, he still has an option year remaining and could serve as a depth player if another team were to put in a claim. If he passes through the wire unclaimed, he’d have the right to refuse an outright assignment and elect free agency based on his minor league service time.

34 Players Become Free Agents

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The Wild Card round of the 2022 postseason begins today, but for the majority of teams and players, the offseason is now underway. With that will come plenty of roster formalities, including veteran players who’ve been outrighted off their respective teams’ rosters reaching minor league free agency. This week, there have been 34 such instances throughout the league, per the transactions log at MiLB.com.

None of these are a surprise, to be clear. Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of Major League service time, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minors has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group of players falls under that umbrella. The majority of the group will likely find minor league deals over the winter, although a few of the players in question could potentially find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

There will be several more waves of players of this ilk, and we’ll make note of them in bunches over the coming weeks as we await the launch of Major League free agency, when all unsigned players with at least six years of Major League service time will reach the open market. For now, here’s the first of what will likely be several waves of newly minted minor league free agents:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Carlos Correa On Opt-Out Clause, Future With Twins

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Since the moment Carlos Correa signed a surprising, short-term and opt-out laden deal with the Twins, it’s appeared all but inevitable that he’d trigger the first opt-out in his contract and return to free agency this winter. A huge finish at the plate likely only made Correa’s decision easier, and while the 28-year-old former All-Star hinted that he will indeed opt out when speaking to the Twins beat yesterday, he also voiced a strong desire to return to the Twins and continue playing under manager Rocco Baldelli (Twitter thread via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com).

“…I talked about marriage in terms of building a long-term relationship [with the team], and then we go from there,” Correa said. “But we all know, you know the game enough to know what my decision is going to be like.”

Correa said early in the season that he and his wife immediately felt at home in the Twin Cities. He doubled down on the comments yesterday, stating his love for the organization and the team, adding that his family’s happiness is something he will “take dearly into consideration” as he charts his course. He added that he plans to meet with the team soon and repeated a desire to “get into serious conversations” with the Twins regarding a longer-term deal than the one to which he’s currently signed. If he made the surprising decision to forgo his opt-out, he’d still be signed for another two years and $70.2MM — with the ability to  opt out again next winter.

While Baldelli has become a lightning rod for criticism among Twins fans on the heels of a second straight disappointing season, Correa indicated that the relationship he’s forged with his manager has been a key factor in his happiness this season.

“He’s been an open book with me since day one,” Correa said of Baldelli. “He’s been honest. He’s been trustworthy. He’s been a friend. There’s nothing more you want from a manager than what Rocco is to us here.”

Obviously, it’s in Correa’s best interest to say all the right things and to express interest in a long-term deal. There’s no sense in any pending free agent burning any type of bridge or casting doubt about his willingness to return to his current setting; the greater the number of potential landing spots, the greater the competition in free agency, after all. Still, Correa could also have simply declined to comment on the opt-out or on his relationship with the club, so it’s of at least mild note that he perhaps foreshadowed his decision and expressed ostensibly earnest desire to stay put in Minnesota.

Correa stumbled out of the gates early in the season, hitting just .167/.254/.250 through his first 16 games and 67 plate appearances. From that point forth, he found his stroke at the plate and looked every bit like the star the Twins hoped to be acquiring, batting .307/.380/.496 (152 wRC+) with a 10.3% walk rate and 18.9% strikeout rate through his final 523 plate appearances.

Defensive metrics soured on Correa’s work at shortstop following last year’s Platinum Glove showing, but both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) still pegged him as an above-average shortstop. Statcast did grade him negatively (two runs below average) for the first time since his rookie season. Correa made just eight errors this year (six of the throwing variety).

The end result was a strong all-around campaign: a .291/.366/.467 batting line (140 wRC+), 22 home runs, 24 doubles and anywhere from passable to above-average defense at shortstop. Baseball-Reference pegged Correa’s first and perhaps only Twins season at 5.4 wins above replacement; FanGraphs valued him at 4.4 WAR.

The question for both the Twins and for Correa now becomes one of finding a middle ground. Correa hit the market a year ago fresh off an even stronger season than his 2022 effort and still struggled to find the $330MM+ deal he was rumored to be seeking. Now a year older and coming off a strong but still lesser season, it’s hard to imagine that type of contract materializing — particularly with another excellent set of fellow shortstops on the market. A year ago, Correa was joined by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Baez in free agency. This time around, it’s Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson all serving as competition.

From a payroll vantage point, the Twins can very clearly handle a long-term commitment to Correa. Assuming he opts out and Sonny Gray’s 2023 option is exercised — both of which are virtual locks — Minnesota will have about $53.25MM on the 2023 books. By 2024, the only notable long-term guarantee on the ledger is Byron Buxton’s seven-year contract, and his annual base salary clocks in just north of $15MM. If the team wants to build around the Nos. 1 and 2 picks from the 2012 draft, the resources are certainly there. The Twins carried a payroll of more than $142MM this season.

Whether that’s a risk worth taking will be a question for the front office and for ownership, of course. The Twins have more money coming off the books than all but a handful of MLB clubs this winter, but they also have needs in the rotation, the bullpen and at several spots in the lineup. They also have another former No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, as a potential heir to Correa at shortstop, although Lewis tore his right ACL (while playing the outfield) in just the 12th game of an impressive MLB debut. It’s the second straight season with a season-ending right ACL tear for the now 23-year-old Lewis, and it remains unclear whether that pair of surgeries to repair the same ligament impact the team’s thoughts on him as a potential shortstop. His outlook is but one of many layers to a complex and franchise-altering decision the Twins will face with Correa’s opt-out looming.

Twins Select Aaron Sanchez

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The Twins announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Aaron Sanchez. He will take the active roster spot of fellow righty Trevor Megill, who has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain. To make room on the 40-man roster, outfielder Kyle Garlick was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Sanchez, 30, had a tremendous season for the Blue Jays in 2016, throwing 192 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 20.4% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 54.4% ground ball rate. Unfortunately, various injuries have held him back in subsequent years, relegating him to a depth arm.

He began this year on a minor league deal with the Nats, eventually spending just over a month with the big league club. He then signed another minors deal, this time with the Twins. Since then, he’s twice been selected to the big league club before being designated for assignment and outrighted to the minors, with today’s selection being his third selection by the Twins and fourth on the year overall. Between all of those transactions, he’s thrown 58 1/3 innings in the bigs this year with a 6.33 ERA, 16% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 52.4% grounder rate. He has over six years of MLB service time and will return to free agency at the conclusion of the season.

As for Megill, 28, this IL placement will finish his season. He threw 45 innings for the Twins this year with a 4.80 ERA, though much stronger peripheral stats. His 25% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate are all a bit better than the league average marks. He might have been held back by some bad luck, as his 62.5% strand rate is well below the mean and his .368 batting average on balls in play is well above. He and the Twins will hope for better results next year and into the future, as he’s yet to reach arbitration eligibility.

As for Garlick, he’s been on the IL since mid-September due to a wrist sprain and this transfer will officially quash any chance of him returning. He finishes the year with a .233/.284/.433 batting line, good enough for a wRC+ of 104.

Twins Promote Simeon Woods Richardson

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Oct. 2: The Twins have officially selected the contract of Woods Richardson, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Right-hander Ronny Henriquez was optioned to open a spot on the active roster, while catcher Sandy Leon was transferred to the 60-day injured list to create room on the 40-man. Leon’s transfer is a mere formality, as it was previously announced that his season had been ended by knee surgery.

Sep. 30: The Twins are planning to promote pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson to the majors before the end of the season, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Minnesota added Woods Richardson to their taxi squad this afternoon. It’s unclear specifically when he’ll be activated, but Park points out the club has yet to name a starting pitcher for Sunday afternoon’s matchup with the Tigers.

Assuming he’s indeed added to the major league roster, the right-hander will get an opportunity to make his big league debut in the coming days. A second-round pick of the Mets out of a Texas high school in 2018, Woods Richardson has been a well-regarded young arm since entering the professional ranks. He spent around a year in the New York system before he was dealt to the Blue Jays alongside Anthony Kay in the 2019 trade that sent Marcus Stroman to Queens.

Woods Richardson finished that season with the Jays’ High-A affiliate, and he cracked the back half of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list the ensuing winter. After not logging any game action in 2020 due to the cancelation of the minor leagues, he was assigned to Double-A to begin the ’21 campaign. Still seen by many evaluators as one of the better minor league arms in the game, Woods Richardson soon found himself involved in a huge trade for the second time in his career. At last year’s deadline, Toronto shipped him alongside infield prospect Austin Martin to Minnesota in exchange for José Berríos.

Amidst the pair of high-profile trades, Woods Richardson’s prospect stock has dipped a bit in recent years. He fell off BA’s top 100 entering the 2022 season, but he nevertheless entered the year ranked eighth in a solid Minnesota system. He checks in sixth in the organization on the outlet’s most recent update, with praise for a four-pitch arsenal headlined by a low-mid 90s fastball and a potential plus changeup.

Woods Richardson has generally had an impressive 2022 campaign. He began the year with Double-A Wichita, making 16 appearances before getting a bump to Triple-A St. Paul in mid-August. He started another seven games for the Saints and performed well at both stops. Between the top two affiliates, the 22-year-old pitched to a 2.77 ERA across 107 1/3 innings. He’s struck out an impressive 27% of opponents while limiting walks to a manageable 8.5% rate.

That solid showing against upper level hitters earns Woods Richardson a brief major league cameo. He’d have needed to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season regardless to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, and the Twins have a number of players who can simply move to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot for the season’s final week.

Woods Richardson will be in the mix for a rotation spot next season. Minnesota is set to open the year with Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, a hopefully healthy Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober in the starting five. With Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy each likely to depart in free agency, Woods Richardson should join Josh Winder, Louie Varland and any external additions in battling for additional looks.

AL Notes: Nevin, Angels, Strahm, Red Sox, Twins

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Angels interim manager Phil Nevin told reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) that he hasn’t yet had any talks with the front office about remaining in the job for the 2023 season.  Nevin moved from third base coach to the interim skipper’s role after Joe Maddon was fired in June, and the Angels have a 44-57 record under Nevin’s stewardship, though between injuries and some imperfect roster construction, it can be argued that Nevin hasn’t had much to work with in trying to get the Halos on track.

The manager’s job is one of many questions facing the Angels this offseason, with the franchise’s possible sale acting as the overhanging influence on every decision.  There has been some speculation that this uncertainty could benefit Nevin’s chances, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has written that the Angels could prefer to just retain Nevin rather than sign another manager to a multi-year contract this winter (thus leaving a new owner with that deal on the books, when that owner might naturally prefer to make their own choice at skipper).  The front office’s lack of contact with Nevin might not necessarily be a sign that he isn’t a candidate, as GM Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno might just be waiting until the offseason to conduct a proper search.

More from around the American League…

  • Amidst a difficult Red Sox season, Matt Strahm has been a bright spot, posting a 3.92 ERA over 43 2/3 innings and filling a number of different roles in Boston’s bullpen.  After being non-tendered by the Padres last winter, Strahm signed a one-year, $3MM free agent deal with the Sox in March and he told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that he “would love” a return to Boston in 2023.  Strahm also said he is open to returning to a relief role, but also wants to market himself as a starting pitcher.  Strahm made 16 starts for the Padres in 2019 but none since, as knee injuries limited the southpaw in any role in 2020-21.  However, Strahm said he is ready to resume a starter’s workload, as a consistent running program has made his knees “feel better than when I was drafted.”  Since the Red Sox have multiple starters slated for free agency this winter, re-signing Strahm and at least giving him a trial run as a starter would make some sense, as the Sox would then have the fallback of moving the left-hander back into the bullpen.  Cotillo reported that the Brewers, Royals, and Tigers were among the teams vying for Strahm last offseason, so any of that trio could conceivably still have interest in his next trip to the open market.
  • Max Kepler, Gio Urshela, and Emilio Pagan could all be trade candidates for the Twins this offseason, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman breaks down why Minnesota may be open to swapping any of these veterans.  Naturally, money is one factor — Kepler is guaranteed at least $9.5MM in 2023, while Urshela (paid $6.55MM in 2022) and Pagan ($2.3MM) are due raises in their final year of salary arbitration before free agency.  Kepler and Pagan are also coming off underwhelming seasons, while Gleeman figures the solid Urshela likely has the most trade value of the trio, should the Twins want to open third base for Jose Miranda.

Twins To Retain Derek Falvey As President Of Baseball Operations

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The Twins have announced that president of baseball operations Derek Falvey will return for the 2023 season. Per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, team president Dave St. Peter said of Falvey: “We think we have a very dynamic, smart, forward-thinking leader, and he’ll be back in 2023, and I’m hoping many, many years after that.”

Falvey has guided the team to a 449-414 record — a 52% winning percentage since he started leading the Twins after the 2016 season. That run includes three postseason appearances and back-to-back division titles in 2019 and 2020. After those seasons, which saw the Twins win 101 games in 2019 and post a .600 winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, Minnesota has delivered consecutive disappointing seasons. In 2021, the team missed the playoffs with a 73-89 record, and through 155 games this season has posted a 76-79 record that has again eliminated from them from playoff contention. Despite these recent disappointments, the Twins will continue to turn to Falvey to lead baseball operations.

Although Minnesota has struggled, Falvey and his front office were aggressive this past calendar year in terms of making additions —  even beyond Carlos Correa joining the team in perhaps the most surprising deal of this past offseason. In that timeframe, the Twins have added Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle to their rotation, Jorge Lopez to their bullpen, and Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez to their lineup (in addition to Correa).

Aggressive moves aren’t always effective ones, however, and Minnesota’s moves have played out to mixed results this season. Signing Correa appears to have been a slam dunk in hindsight, and a handful of moves on the trade market seem to be clear wins at this point: trading for Gray, essentially swapping Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in a pair of trades with the Rangers and the Yankees, and acquiring Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz from the Rays at last year’s deadline. On the other hand, the additions of Archer and Emilio Pagan have largely fallen flat, and other acquisitions, such as Mahle, Paddack, and Lopez, provided virtually no value this season, although they could certainly still work out in the long term.

While the Twins certainly have their flaws, Minnesota has also undeniably been held back by a rash of injuries in 2022. The Twins have had 32 players spend time on the injured list this season, including each of their aforementioned rotation additions. Their lineup has suffered from these injuries as well, with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Ryan Jeffers among those missing significant time. Overall, just four players have reached 130 games played for the Twins this season, and Ryan leads Minnesota pitchers with just 141 innings pitched.

Between the exceptional injury woes the organization has faced this year and the fact that Falvey is signed through 2024, it’s not a huge surprise that he, like manager Rocco Baldelli, be retained. Falvey will have more work to do this offseason, with Correa likely to opt out of his contract, and questions in a rotation that may lose both Archer and Dylan Bundy this offseason. The team holds a club option on Bundy and a mutual option with Archer, but neither option seems likely to be picked up. Gray’s option should be exercised, slotting him into next year’s rotation alongside Ryan, Mahle (health permitting) and a hopefully healthy Kenta Maeda (who missed 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery). Still, there’s plenty of work to be done on both sides of the ball if the Twins are to avoid a third straight playoff miss next year.

Note: The original version of this post erroneously called the Twins’ record under Falvey 371-414, a 47.2% win percentage. The correct record is 449-414, a 52% win percentage. MLBTR apologizes for the error.

Central Notes: O’Neill, Paddack, Madrigal

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill missed almost a month in the middle of this season, from mid-June to mid-July, due to a left hamstring strain. He went back on the IL September 17 due to the same injury, a left hamstring strain. At the time, it was reported as a Grade 1 strain, which is the less-serious variety. Regardless, over a week later, an O’Neill return doesn’t seem close.

Team president John Mozeliak was asked about the possibility of O’Neill returning in the postseason and had this to say, per Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest: “I think there’s a shot, but obviously the clock is ticking.” That doesn’t seem to indicate the Cards are banking on a return. The club has now clinched the NL Central but are seven games behind the Mets and Braves, who are tied atop the East, and even further behind the Dodgers. That means they are destined to play in the first round of the playoffs against whoever finishes with the third Wild Card spot. Each round that they survive will increase the chances of O’Neill coming back, but he wouldn’t be able to find a rehab stint with the minor league seasons winding down. Even if he’s healthy, the Cards would have to view a rusty O’Neill as a better option than their current outfielders in order for him to get a shot.

O’Neill had a career year last year by hitting 34 home runs and swiping 15 bases on his way to producing 5.6 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. This year, various injuries have limited him to just 96 games and diminished production when on the field, with his .286/.352/.560 batting line from last year slipping to .228/.308/.392. Without him in the mix, the St. Louis outfield is currently composed of Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Corey Dickerson, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Ben DeLuzio.

More notes from the Central divisions…

  • Twins right-hander Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and is now targeting an August 2023 return, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The surgery usually comes with a 12-18 month recovery window, but this is the second such procedure of Paddack’s career, having previously gone under the knife as a prospect in 2016. Paddack tells Park that the second recovery is going to take a bit longer, meaning the narrow end of the typical recovery window is closed. Since the best-case scenario involves Paddack missing the bulk of next year, the club will have to plan on building a rotation without him. He was just one of several Twins who missed significant time with injury this year, preventing them from hanging onto the AL Central lead that they held for a good chunk of the year. On paper, the 2023 rotation in Minnesota consists of Sonny Gray, who is sure to have his option exercised, alongside Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for four slots. Kenta Maeda could be a factor for the fifth, though he’ll be an unknown quantity after missing all of this year recovering from his own Tommy John surgery of the internal brace variety. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer both have options that are unlikely to be exercised, subtracting them from the equation. The club could look for outside help given the uncertainty around Maeda, though they will also have internal options like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic, Devin Smeltzer and Simeon Woods Richardson, with Paddack hopefully joining them down the stretch.
  • Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal is on the injured list and won’t be returning this season, manager David Ross tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal landed on the shelf September 10 due to a groin strain, his second groin-related trip to the IL this year. It’s the second straight injury-marred campaign for him, after he was limited to 54 games in 2021 and just 59 here in 2022. He hit .305/.349/.425 last year but saw that line dip to .249/.305/.282 in this campaign. He came into this season with one year and 164 days of MLB service time, meaning he’s a lock to reach arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, though he likely won’t earn a huge raise given all the time he’s missed. The Cubs aren’t likely to be competitive in 2023 but will still want to see Madrigal show better results in order to keep him in their plans going forward.

Carlos Correa Is Making His Opt-Out Decision Even Easier

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The Twins’ surprise signing of Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3MM contract was supposed to be the signature free-agent addition that washed away the lingering distaste of an awful 2021 campaign pushed them toward an AL Central crown. Instead, the Twins have wildly unperformed expectations for a second straight season, due in large part a once-again disastrous level of injury. Minnesota has had more IL days accrued than any team in the American League and trails only Cincinnati for the MLB lead in that odious category. (The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman took a player-by-player look at the Twins’ staggering injury woes just this morning.)

Very little has gone right in Minnesota this year, but with all the woes they’ve incurred in their catastrophic second half, Correa’s monstrous finish to the season has flown somewhat under the radar. As the team has crumbled around him, Correa has enjoyed just the type of sprint to the finish line the team had hoped for at the time of the contract.

Correa struggled in April and in July, sandwiching a paid of outstanding months between two below-average months at the plate. His bat picked up in late July, however, and he’s finishing out what could well be his only season with his strongest production of the year. Since Aug. 1, Correa is hitting .323/.405/.505 with eight homers, nine doubles and a triple in 222 plate appearances. Both his walk rate (11.7%) and strikeout rate (19.4%) during that stretch of 222 plate appearances are about two percentage points better than the levels Correa carried through the end of July.

Carlos Correa | Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Since Aug. 1, Correa ranks 10th in the Majors in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage and 25th in slugging percentage. His 162 wRC+ (indicating he’s been 62% better than the league-average hitter) in that time is tied with J.T. Realmuto for 13th in all of baseball. If you really want to cherry-pick, Correa’s ridiculous .386/.432/.670 slash over 95 plate appearances since Sept. 4 give him the fifth-best wRC+ in baseball during that time (216).

There’s no denying that Correa’s counting stats will be down from their 2021 levels when the season draws to a close. It’s at least possible that he swats another five homers and ends up tying last year’s mark off 26 long balls, though with nine games to play, it’s also unlikely. He’s not going to drive in as many runs as he did in ’21, and some of that is due to a curious power outage with runners in scoring position this season. It’s also due, however, to the simple fact that with Houston in 2021, Correa came to the plate 187 times with runners in scoring position and 304 times with men on base. This season, those numbers are currently at 116 and 248. He hasn’t been as good in big spots as he was a year ago, but also simply hasn’t had as many big spots, thanks to a Twins lineup that has routinely relied on minor league placeholders to fill in for injured regulars.

On the whole, aside from a slight dip in power (which correlates with the league-wide drop in power this season), Correa’s production at the plate in 2022 looks quite similar to in 2021. He’s hitting .289/.365/.468 as a Twin and hit .279/.366/.485 in his final season as an Astro. This year’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity is just barely shy of last year’s 90.2 mph exit velocity. He’s barreling balls more often this year than last (11.5% to 9.4%), and his overall hard-hit rate (43.8%) is a bit better than his 2021 level as well (42.5%). Essentially, Statcast feels he’s been almost the same hitter in Minneapolis as he was in Houston.

The biggest change in Correa’s valuations this season has been on the defensive side of things. His defensive ratings are down across the board, although Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg him as a clearly above-average shortstop — just not the all-world, best-in-MLB-regardless-of-position defender he was in 2021. Statcast feels differently, dinging Correa at four outs below average — his first negative OAA mark since 2016.

Having just celebrated his 28th birthday last week, it seems unlikely Correa’s defensive skills have simply eroded. Repeating last year’s career-best 20 Defensive Runs Saved and massive 12 Outs Above Average was always going to be a challenge; defensive stats often oscillate just like their offensive counterparts, and the likely bet is that he’ll again be above-average across the board in 2023. He’s only made eight errors this season, six of which have been of the throwing variety. That only tells the tales of the balls Correa has gotten to, of course — hence the pitfalls of raw fielding percentage — but it does illustrate that Correa hasn’t become a clumsy-handed butcher who’s booting the routine plays.

Overall, Correa has been worth 5.0 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference, and 4.2 WAR per FanGraphs. His .289/.365/.468 batting line is 40% better than league-average after adjusting for league and home park, by measure of wRC+, and he’s been lauded throughout the season by teammates, coaches and the front office staff alike for his influence leadership and influence in the clubhouse. It’s not necessarily the best-case outcome the Twins might’ve hoped for when signing him, but a strong four-to-five win season and positive off-the-field impact is a strong outcome all the same.

Correa has said at multiple times this season that he and his family feel at home in Minnesota and that he’s open to, if not hopeful for a long-term offer to stay with the Twins long term. That, of course, is a sensible thing for any pending free agent to say, and the fact that he’s open to a long-term deal (presumably at top-of-the-market dollars) shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s moderately notable that he’s chosen to publicly state his hope for a long-term arrangement rather than demur and say that contract talk is for the offseason, but public comments from Correa — as with most pending free agents — can be taken with a grain of salt.

The reality is that while Correa might never find the ten-year deal and $35MM-ish annual value he was likely seeking last offseason, he can absolutely find a long-term pact that will trounce the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his current contract with the Twins. Correa can very realistically command more than $30MM per year over a long term — likely with additional opt-out opportunities baked into the deal. Because of his age, even a ten-year deal would still only run through his age-37 season. Opting out has long seemed to be the likeliest outcome for Correa, as noted on last month’s update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings (where Correa placed fourth).

Correa’s torrid production has only improved his stock since that time. The Phillies, Cubs and Giants are reported to be among the teams that will look at free-agent shortstops. The Twins have already expressed public interest in extending the relationship. The Braves, Red Sox and Dodgers will all have their own star shortstops reach the market, creating potential openings for all three (in-house options notwithstanding). The Cardinals and Angels could need shortstops. The Orioles could theoretically be lurking and have already signaled that their payroll will increase.

The free-agent market for shortstops should be strong, and Correa’s standing among the 15 most-productive hitters in the sport over the final two months of the season has likely silenced any inkling of a doubt regarding his opt-out clause. The Twins shocked baseball in March when they signed Correa in the first place. It would register as an even bigger shock if Correa now forgoes his opportunity to return to the market on the heels of a season — and a finish — this strong.

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