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MLBTR Originals

The A’s Could Make A Left-Handed Power Bat Available In Trade

By Anthony Franco | January 3, 2023 at 12:45pm CDT

The A’s are firmly amidst a rebuild. They stripped the roster almost to its studs over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling what had been a borderline playoff team to cut spending. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt all departed last winter; Frankie Montas followed at the deadline, and Sean Murphy was the last big piece to move a few weeks ago.

With all their star players out the door, Oakland has mostly completed its sell-off. They’re now integrating a number of younger, pre-arbitration players onto a roster that again figures to be one of the worst in the American League in 2023. The A’s are looking a few years down the road, and it stands to reason they’d therefore be open to moving virtually any player on the roster with an established major league track record.

Ramón Laureano may be their highest-upside trade candidate, but he’s coming off a rough season that’s a year removed from a performance-enhancing drug suspension. It’s probably best to let him try to rebuild his stock with an eye towards a deadline deal. There’s another outfielder whom general manager David Forst could consider more of a sell-high possibility: Seth Brown.

A former 19th-round pick, Brown was never regarded as an especially notable prospect. He didn’t reach the majors until after his 27th birthday late in the 2019 season. Brown barely played at the MLB level his first couple years, not topping 26 MLB games in a season until 2021. He picked up 307 plate appearances that year, connecting on 20 home runs but only reaching base at a .274 clip.

Last season, the Lewis-Clark State College product got his first real run as an everyday player. He suited up 150 times and tallied 555 trips to the plate. Brown hit .230/.305/.444 with 25 homers. His on-base percentage, while a bit below the .312 league mark, wasn’t at the untenable clip of the previous season. He cut his strikeout rate from 29% to a more manageable 26.3% while boosting his walk percentage to a solid 9.2% clip. Brown still doesn’t have a great plate discipline profile, but those numbers are sufficient for a player with his power. His slugging mark was nearly .050 points above the league average despite playing half his games at Oakland’s spacious ballpark.

Virtually all of those gains came as part of a torrid second half. Brown carried a .216/.269/.396 line into the All-Star Break. After the Midsummer Classic, he posted a .249/.348/.507 showing over 250 plate appearances. He more than doubled his walk rate from 6.2% to 12.8% and collected 15 longballs in the second half.  He finished tied for 11th in the majors in homers after the Break, while his 147 wRC+ during that time (indicating overall offensive production 47 percentage points above the league average) checked in 27th among those with at least 150 plate appearances.

As with any relatively small-sample performance of that nature, it’s probably fair to assume Brown won’t maintain that pace. He doesn’t need to be a top 30 hitter in the league to be valuable, though, and it’s clear he has legitimate power upside. He’s now picked up 45 homers in a bit less than 900 plate appearances over the past two seasons. In both years, he’s put up a hard contact rate north of 40% — around five points higher than the league mark.

Even with some likely regression from his late-season tear, Brown at least profiles as a quality power bat for the strong side of a platoon. For his career, the left-handed hitter owns a .239/.309/.482 line against right-handed pitching. He’s managed only a .172/.230/.297 mark against southpaws and would probably be shielded from looks against tough lefty arms if he were to land with a contender.

A decent runner, Brown also stole 11 bases in 13 attempts last season. The A’s even gave him some late-season work in center field, though he struggled significantly there. Public metrics suggest he’s a more viable defender in the corner outfield and at first base. The bat will have to carry the profile, but Brown has enough athleticism he could factor in at a few of the lower-value positions on the defensive spectrum.

There haven’t been any indications Brown’s name has come up in trade talks between Oakland and other clubs thus far. Unlike most of the players the A’s have shipped off in recent seasons, they have no payroll motivation to deal Brown. He’ll play this season for little more than the league minimum salary and is eligible for arbitration three more times after that. Trading him wouldn’t be about saving money but the opportunity to potentially recoup a mid-level prospect or two for a player whose trade value may be at its peak. While he’s controllable for the foreseeable future, Brown is already 30 and presumably not seen as a core long-term organizational piece for a rebuilding club.

A productive lefty platoon bat to rotate through the corner outfield and first base should have more appeal to an immediate contender, particularly since Brown’s affordability means he’d fit on the books anywhere. Teams like the Rays, Yankees, Rangers, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers all have some amount of uncertainty at either first base or in the outfield. Tampa Bay and New York stand out as particularly strong speculative fits considering their lineups tend to skew right-handed. Brown wouldn’t be a franchise-altering addition, but he should be of interest to a number of teams as they build out their roster depth with free agency mostly finished.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

 

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Athletics MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate Seth Brown

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Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Jurickson Profar?

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 9:47pm CDT

Aside from Carlos Correa — who reportedly remains focused on finalizing his deal with the Mets — only three players from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents remain without a contract. There’s just one hitter from the group, as the market for Jurickson Profar has remained surprisingly quiet.

The nine-year MLB veteran had a solid 2022 campaign with the Padres, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs through 658 plate appearances. It was his second above-average offensive season in the last three years, leading the 29-year-old to make the easy decision to accept a $1MM buyout and hit free agency instead of returning to San Diego on a $7.5MM salary.

In the nearly two months since then, however, there’s been virtually zero indication as to his next landing spot. The only team that has been substantively tied to Profar this winter is the Astros, and that was before they re-signed Michael Brantley to split time with Yordan Alvarez between left field and designated hitter.

That leaves only speculative possibilities in trying to narrow down Profar’s landing spot. With Profar mostly limited to left field in recent years after breaking into the majors as an infielder, it’s worth looking at the clubs that got the worst production out of the position. Here are the bottom ten teams in wRC+ from left fielders in 2022:

  • Rangers (47)
  • Angels (67)
  • Marlins (81)
  • Tigers (88)
  • Red Sox (91)
  • A’s (94)
  • Reds (95)
  • Pirates (97)
  • Braves (97)
  • Twins (98)

A few of these clubs have already addressed the issue. The Halos traded for Hunter Renfroe, while the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract. The Twins signed Joey Gallo and look likelier to trade away an outfielder than sign another.

Some others are either amidst rebuilds or at least heading into transitional seasons. The A’s, Tigers, Reds and Pirates are all unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2023. That doesn’t inherently rule them out on Profar, who’s still fairly young and could sign a multi-year deal. Yet it perhaps lessens the urgency for anyone in that group to try to plug every hole on the roster via free agency. Let’s take a look at the remaining three clubs in that group:

  • Rangers: Texas has had a second straight whirlwind offseason, this time on the pitching staff. They’ve added four starting pitchers as part of their efforts to vault themselves into postseason contention. Left field is the biggest remaining weakness, and Rangers general manager Chris Young has already gone on record about a desire to upgrade. Bubba Thompson and infield/outfield hybrids Brad Miller, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán headline the internal options. An addition seems likely, although it remains to be seen if Texas would circle back to Profar, who never met the extremely lofty expectations he’d had as a prospect in the Rangers farm system.
  • Marlins: The Marlins haven’t addressed the outfield this winter, but they added Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler on multi-year pacts last offseason. They could make Profar fit if they moved Soler to a more or less everyday designated hitter role, but another free agent deal for a corner outfielder might be too rich for their taste. That’s particularly true since most of their in-house younger outfielders (i.e. Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday) profile better in a corner than they do in center field.
  • Braves: Atlanta has thrown a few darts at left field this offseason. They’ve acquired Sam Hilliard and Eli White in minor trades while signing Jordan Luplow to a modest one-year deal. None of them should stand in the way of an impact left fielder, but Profar’s more of a solid stabilizing veteran than the kind of player who’d change a lineup. Between the trio of new pickups and in-house candidates like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, Atlanta may feel they’ll find at least one player in the group who can reasonably approximate Profar’s production.

Beyond that trio of teams, a few more stand out as possible fits. The Mariners have looked for ways to address left field. As with Atlanta, they have a hodgepodge of internal candidates for reps (Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore among them) and could feel better patching things together if they don’t land a clearer upgrade via trade. Seattle also has some questions about their remaining spending capacity. The Yankees haven’t attacked left field after losing Andrew Benintendi in free agency. Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks are the in-house favorites for playing time.

The Royals have almost no certainty in either corner outfield spot. The Nationals are rebuilding but the Talk Nats blog tweeted a few weeks ago they were looking to bring in some outfield help. The incumbent Padres still make some sense. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made no secret of his longstanding affinity for Profar dating back to their overlapping time in the Texas organization. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely ticketed for left field work once he returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, but adding another bat to the corner outfield/designated hitter mix could free Matt Carpenter up for more multi-positional work off the bench.

What does the MLBTR readership consider the best fits for Profar? Where will he wind up?

(poll link for app users)

Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
Padres 14.03% (1,174 votes)
Rangers 11.01% (921 votes)
Yankees 9.37% (784 votes)
Blue Jays 5.08% (425 votes)
Mariners 4.71% (394 votes)
Tigers 4.70% (393 votes)
Giants 4.26% (356 votes)
Braves 4.11% (344 votes)
Red Sox 3.93% (329 votes)
White Sox 3.55% (297 votes)
Mets 3.12% (261 votes)
Orioles 2.69% (225 votes)
Cubs 2.47% (207 votes)
Marlins 2.46% (206 votes)
Dodgers 2.34% (196 votes)
Cardinals 2.28% (191 votes)
Royals 2.15% (180 votes)
Astros 2.02% (169 votes)
Reds 1.86% (156 votes)
Brewers 1.79% (150 votes)
Rays 1.63% (136 votes)
A's 1.63% (136 votes)
Pirates 1.49% (125 votes)
Nationals 1.47% (123 votes)
Angels 1.37% (115 votes)
Twins 1.33% (111 votes)
Guardians 1.20% (100 votes)
Rockies 0.87% (73 votes)
Phillies 0.74% (62 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.32% (27 votes)
Total Votes: 8,366

 

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Jurickson Profar

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Analyzing The Blue Jays’ Second Base Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 8:03pm CDT

The Blue Jays have made a few drastic lineup changes this offseason, sending out Teoscar Hernández and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while bringing back Daulton Varsho and signing Kevin Kiermaier. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins recently told reporters he considers the club’s heavy lifting mostly finished, though he left the door open for another small-scale move or two.

One area of the roster that has thus far not changed is the infield. That’s not all that surprising, considering the Jays entered the offseason with a strong infield under club control for another year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman will be back at the corners, with Bo Bichette manning shortstop. The one position that doesn’t seem entirely settled is second base, though that’s not for a lack of options. Toronto has a trio of players who could compete for reps at the keystone, with manager John Schneider presumably planning to divvy up playing time depending on how each performs early in 2023.

At the moment, Whit Merrifield looks like the favorite for early run. Toronto acquired him from the Royals at last summer’s trade deadline, buying low at a time when the two-time All-Star was sitting on a meager .240/.290/.352 line. The Jays seemed undeterred by those numbers, betting on Merrifield’s career track record and generally solid work following an atrocious April. He rewarded the front office’s faith, hitting .281/.323/.446 in 44 games in a Jays uniform.

That surely cemented Merrifield’s place somewhere in the regular lineup, with second base being the straightforward option. Merrifield is capable of covering all three outfield positions, but Varsho and Kiermaier are in line for regular playing time alongside George Springer on the grass. With Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen likely to split time between catcher and designated hitter, Merrifield will presumably man second base on Opening Day.

Doing so pushes a pair of players who looked like quality regulars for the Jays not too long ago — Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio — to the bench. Biggio has been in the Opening Day lineup in each of the past three seasons, twice at the keystone, but that seems unlikely to be the case this year. The left-handed hitter is coming off a second straight pedestrian year, hitting .202/.318/.350 with six home runs through 303 plate appearances. Biggio still draws plenty of walks but he’s seen his power production dip the past couple seasons. He struggled enough he was briefly optioned to Triple-A Buffalo last season, though he was recalled within two weeks. He spent most of the year in a utility capacity, playing all four corner spots in addition to second base.

After Biggio was demoted, the primary second base job fell to Espinal. The 28-year-old had worked primarily as a versatile bench piece from 2020-21. He played his way into more consistent reps with a strong first few months in 2022, hitting .271/.323/.425 through the end of June. He even secured an All-Star appearance for that excellent early work, but he couldn’t carry that production for a full season. Espinal hit .261/.321/.317 from July onwards, ceding some more playing time to Biggio and (after the deadline) Merrifield for the stretch run.

With Merrifield in the fold, Espinal and Biggio each entered the offseason as at least somewhat realistic potential trade candidates. Espinal’s ability to cover shortstop if Bichette were injured and/or needed a rest day made him seem more entrenched than Biggio in Toronto, although it seemed reasonable teams could call on either player. There’s been no indication thus far that Toronto has discussed either with other clubs.

Considering the scant remaining middle infield options available via free agency, it’s possible teams like the White Sox, Angels, Giants or Brewers could still be in touch with Atkins and his staff in the coming months. The Jays don’t figure to be urgent to move either player, particularly considering the health uncertainty present with Kiermaier and Springer. An injury to either could press Merrifield more frequently back into outfield duty, leaving Espinal and/or Biggio to handle the keystone on a more regular basis.

Espinal and Biggio each qualified for arbitration for the first time this winter. They’re both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $2-3MM range. That’s hardly onerous, although there’s a case to be made for considering trade possibilities. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last week, the Blue Jays presently project to enter the season right around the $233MM base luxury tax line. There are enough error bars in arbitration projections they could conceivably head into the year either above or below that threshold.

A team’s tax payor status isn’t finalized until season’s end, and the organization could well determine they’re comfortable exceeding that mark to maximize their chances in what should be a competitive AL East. Yet if the club is content with its infield strength — especially if they’re confident prospect Addison Barger will be ready for MLB action fairly early in the season — fielding offers on Espinal or Biggio could make sense. They’re not under pressure to do so but would presumably be open to the possibility, particularly if they could net immediate rotation depth or bullpen help.

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MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays Cavan Biggio Santiago Espinal Whit Merrifield

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The Top Remaining Free Agent Middle Infield Options

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 6:11pm CDT

Jean Segura came off the board last week on a two-year deal with the Marlins. That removed the top remaining free agent middle infielder, leaving clubs with very few possibilities for help either at shortstop or second base.

Of course, Carlos Correa lingers over the entire market. Until he officially puts pen to paper somewhere, there’s at least a chance for another twist in that saga. Various reports have suggested Correa’s focused on hammering out his deal with the Mets in spite of their concerns about his physical, and that was essentially confirmed yesterday by Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. We’ll set Correa aside and look at the best options remaining for teams outside of Queens.

Here are the still-unsigned free agent middle infielders who tallied at least 150 plate appearances in 2022:

  • Elvis Andrus (34): Andrus is arguably the top unsigned free agent infielder. The 14-year veteran still brings a high-contact bat and quality baserunning to the table. Public defensive metrics have been divided on his work recently, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average generally rating him as an above-average shortstop despite less enthusiastic reviews from Defensive Runs Saved. Andrus looked like a glove-only player after hitting .255/.302/.360 from 2018-21, but he bounced back with a solid 2022 campaign. He hit .249/.303/.404 with 17 home runs (the second-highest total of his career) last season. That included a very strong finish, as Andrus hit .271/.309/.464 in 43 games with the White Sox after the A’s released him in mid-August in a move seemingly motivated by a desire to keep him from vesting a $15MM option in his contract for the 2023 season.
  • Josh Harrison (35): The final couple months of the season saw Andrus and Harrison overlap on Chicago’s South Side. The latter played the entire season there after signing a one-year free agent deal during Spring Training. Harrison appeared in 119 games, mostly split between second and third base. He hit .256/.317/.370 with seven home runs across 425 trips to the plate, overcoming a slow start to finish the year with roughly average offensive numbers. The veteran had posted similar numbers in each of the previous two seasons. He doesn’t draw many walks or hit for significant power, but he’s a respected clubhouse presence who consistently puts the ball in play. Harrison still earns solid grades from defensive metrics for his second and third base work; he’s not an option at shortstop, however.
  • José Iglesias (33): Iglesias spent the 2022 season as the primary shortstop in Colorado. He hit .292/.328/.380 through 467 plate appearances, right in line with the production he’s managed over the past four seasons. Igleias is very difficult to strike out and hits for consistently high batting averages, albeit without much else to drive the offensive profile. He rarely walks or hits home runs, though he’s a threat for 25-plus doubles annually. That offense sufficed when paired with the excellent defense that defined his early MLB tenure. He’s drawn less favorable reviews from public metrics the past two seasons though. Statcast has pegged him as a league average shortstop in each of the last two campaigns, but Defensive Runs Saved has rated him a staggering 26 runs below average since the start of 2021. How teams feel about Iglesias’ glove at this stage of his career figures to determine whether he’ll get semi-regular playing time again or have to assume more of a utility role in 2023.
  • César Hernández (32): Hernández suited up 147 times and tallied 617 plate appearances with the Nationals last season. He was a durable presence in the lineup for manager Dave Martinez but had a rough season. Just a year after popping a career-high 21 home runs, the switch-hitter mustered only one longball in the nation’s capital. Hernández is limited to second base and has posted subpar defensive metrics in each of the last two years. He might be limited to minor league offers.
  • Rougned Odor (29): Odor spent the 2022 campaign in Baltimore, his third team in as many seasons. The production was similar as it has been at each of the previous two stops. Odor has enough left-handed power to connect on 10-15 home runs with fairly regular playing time. Yet he also makes plenty of outs thanks both to consistently low walk rates and a propensity for infield pop-ups. Odor is almost strictly a second baseman — he has intermittent experience at third base as well — and posted below-average defensive numbers last year.

Utility Types/Bounceback Fliers

  • Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto brings a high-contact righty bat to a bench. He never walks and has only once topped three home runs in a season but has plus bat-to-ball skills and is well-regarded as a clubhouse presence. Alberto hit .244/.258/.365 in 159 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2022.
  • Johan Camargo (29): Camargo spent the 2022 season with the Phillies, hitting .237/.297/.316 through 166 plate appearances. The switch-hitter had a pair of productive years with the Braves to open his MLB career but has since had four straight well below-average seasons. Camargo’s most natural fit is at third base, though he played more shortstop with Philadelphia.
  • Harold Castro (29): A left-handed hitter, Castro makes a decent amount of contact. He’s a career .284 hitter but rarely walks or hits for power. He’s played extensively throughout the infield and even logged a fair bit of center field work but rated poorly defensively at every stop. The Tigers non-tendered him at the end of the season.
  • Yu Chang (27): Chang bounced around the league via waivers in 2022, suiting up for four teams. He hit .208/.289/.315 in 190 combined plate appearances. Chang had been a prospect of some regard during his time in the Cleveland farm system. He hasn’t hit in limited MLB looks in any of the past four seasons but can play all four infield spots.
  • Didi Gregorius (33): Gregorius was an above-average shortstop as recently as 2020. Unfortunately, a two-year free agent deal to return to the Phillies over the 2020-21 offseason didn’t pan out. Gregorius struggled offensively in both seasons, including a .210/.263/.304 line in 232 trips to the plate last year. The Phils cut him in early August and he didn’t sign elsewhere before year’s end.
  • Josh VanMeter (28): VanMeter is primarily a second baseman who has some experience at the corner spots. He hit .187/.266/.292 with a trio of home runs through 192 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.
  • Jonathan Villar (31): Villar has excellent speed and has stolen more than 35 bases on three separate occasions. He’s intermittently been a productive hitter, posting above-average offensive numbers as recently as 2021. Last season was a disappointment, however. Villar hit .208/.260/.302 in 220 plate appearances between the Cubs and Angels. He spent the final couple months of the year in Triple-A.
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2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Cesar Hernandez Didi Gregorius Elvis Andrus Hanser Alberto Harold Castro Johan Camargo Jonathan Villar Jose Iglesias Josh Harrison Josh VanMeter Rougned Odor Yu Chang

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Twins’ Outfield Depth Gives Front Office Numerous Trade Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 4:16pm CDT

The Twins entered the offseason with ample payroll room but have mostly stuck to smaller-scale additions. Kyle Farmer was brought in from the Reds to act as shortstop insurance in the event Carlos Correa departed. Christian Vázquez inked a three-year free agent deal to address the catcher situation the front office had prioritized, while Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal two weeks ago.

That latter move added another left-handed bat to what had already been a fairly crowded outfield mix. Even with Mark Contreras designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Twins have nine listed outfielders on their 40-man roster. Six of them hit left-handed, which makes it seem likely they’ll subtract at least one from the group in a deal that nets help elsewhere on the roster.

Most of the attention will be focused on right fielder Max Kepler. He’s the most straightforward trade candidate in the outfield and has drawn some interest earlier in the offseason. Kepler is the most expensive of the group, due at least $9.5MM through the end of next season on the contract extension he signed back in 2019. Controllable via club option through 2024, he has the least amount of contractual control of anyone in the group.

That could all make the 29-year-old Kepler the most likely Twins outfielder to be dealt, but it’s also going to tamp down the appeal he’ll have on the trade market. He’s coming off a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine home runs through 446 plate appearances, his second straight season hitting slightly worse than league average. Kepler’s 36-homer showing from 2019 looks like an outlier. His plus defense in right field, quality plate discipline and perhaps a forthcoming benefit from the limitations on shifting mean he should still have some trade value on his contract, but Minnesota’s not likely to recoup an overwhelming return.

If the offers on Kepler aren’t especially persuasive, could president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their staff turn attention elsewhere? Minnesota has a number of younger outfielders who could instead be made available, particularly if the deal nets them help at shortstop and/or in higher-leverage relief innings.

  • Nick Gordon (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Gordon might be the most appealing of the bunch. A former top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect, his status dipped from 2018-21. Gordon’s bat had seemed to stall out in the upper minors and his middle infield defense wasn’t exceptional enough to overcome it. It seemed as if he could find himself on the roster bubble after a tough rookie season in 2021, but Gordon was a valuable utility option for Minnesota last year. He hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers in 443 plate appearances. Defensive metrics didn’t love his work up the middle but considered him a roughly average left fielder.

The 27-year-old isn’t entirely without question marks. He has a very aggressive offensive approach that consistently leads to modest walk totals. Some clubs figure to have concerns about how often he’ll maintain a suitable on-base percentage. Yet he’s also shown some defensive flexibility and hit very well when holding the platoon advantage. Last season, Gordon posted a .289/.329/.465 line against right-handed pitching and his 41.5% hard hit rate against northpaws ranked 12th among 299 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He’s exhausted his minor league option years, meaning he has to stick on the big league roster.

  • Trevor Larnach (controllable through 2027, eligible for arbitration after 2024)

Larnach is also a former first-round pick who was a top minor league talent for a number of seasons. He’s shown solid power and plate discipline in the minors but the production has been more intermittent against big league pitching. The Oregon State product is a .226/.316/.371 hitter in 130 MLB games the past two years. Larnach has walked at a robust 10.2% clip while making plenty of hard contact. He’s offset those promising numbers with a few more grounders than ideal and, more importantly, a strikeout rate pushing 34%.

While he doesn’t have much defensive versatility, Larnach is a quality defender in the corner outfield. He’ll be 26 in February and is still two seasons from qualifying for arbitration. He probably hasn’t done enough to cement himself as an everyday player in the crowded Minnesota outfield but has shown enough promise to believe he could be a quality regular if he can even modestly improve his contact rate. Larnach’s 2022 season ended in June after he underwent surgery to repair a strain in his core muscle. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so it’s possible he heads back to Triple-A St. Paul if he sticks in Minnesota.

  • Alex Kirilloff (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Another former first-round draftee and top prospect, Kirilloff hasn’t yet found much MLB success. He’s a .251/.295/.398 hitter in 104 MLB games, a disappointing start for a player whose bat is his carrying tool. It’s obvious Kirilloff’s capable of more if he can stay healthy, though, considering he’s had each of the past two seasons cut short by right wrist issues that necessitated surgery.

Kirilloff is still just 25 and mashed with St. Paul in 2022, posting a .359/.465/.641 line with ten homers in 35 games. That brought his career minor league slash line up to .328/.378/.519 in parts of five seasons. The Minnesota front office may have no interest in selling low on Kirilloff given that kind of offensive upside, but other clubs figure to at least inquire whether they can buy low given his injury issues. He has one option season left.

  • Matt Wallner (controllable through at least 2028)

Wallner is the least established of the group. The former Southern Mississippi star just made it onto the MLB roster as a September call-up. He played 18 games down the stretch. Wallner, who draws praise from prospect evaluators for his power potential, otherwise split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .277/.412/.542 with 32 home runs in 571 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Wallner just turned 25 and still has all three options remaining.

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MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Alex Kirilloff Matt Wallner Max Kepler Nick Gordon Trevor Larnach

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Free Agent Profile: Luke Voit

By Darragh McDonald | January 2, 2023 at 2:54pm CDT

The major league leader in home runs in 2020 was Yankee first baseman Luke Voit. He launched 22 homers in that season, shortened by the pandemic to just 60 games. No one else in baseball hit more than 19. He also cut his strikeout rate to 23.1%, just below that year’s league average, after being at 25% or above in his previous three seasons. He finished the year with a batting line of .277/.338/.610 for a wRC+ of 153, indicating he was 53% better than the league average hitter. That number placed him in the top 15 among all qualified hitters that season. He finished ninth in the voting for Most Valuable Player in the American League.

Voit still had four seasons of club control remaining and it seemed like the Yankees had first base figured out for years to come. However, Voit has since entered some choppy waters and has been thrown off course a few times. In 2021, he dealt with knee injuries for much of the year and was only able to play 68 games. He hit .239/.328/.437 when healthy enough to play, producing a wRC+ of 112. That was 12% above league average but a noticeable drop from his monster 2020 showing. His strikeout rate also climbed up to 30.7%. The Yankees acquired Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline and then re-signed him for 2022, replacing Voit at the cold corner. A few days later, Voit was traded to the Padres.

In 2022, he was largely healthy, making one trip to the injured list in late April for a biceps tendon injury but returning just over two weeks later. However, it didn’t result in better production at the plate. In 82 games for the Friars, Voit launched 13 long balls but struck out in 32% of his appearances. His .225/.317/.416 batting line was above league average but only by 10%. At the deadline, he had the misfortune of getting thrown into the Juan Soto trade at the last minute when Eric Hosmer used his limited no-trade clause to keep himself out of it.

Voit spent the second half with the Nats, the worst team in baseball in 2022, and saw his production dip. He still hit another nine home runs in just 53 games but his walk rate slipped from 11.3% as a Padre to just 7.1% as a Nat. His time with Washington resulted in a .228/.295/.381 line and a wRC+ of 90. Voit was set to go through arbitration for the third of four trips this winter as a Super Two player, but the Nationals non-tendered him instead of paying him an $8.2MM salary, per projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Voit has now been a free agent for about six weeks without much noise surrounding his market. There have been no public reports about any club having interest in signing him. That’s not terribly shocking given his down year, but there are still things he can bring to the table. His Statcast metrics were still strong in 2022, as his barrel rate was in the 94th percentile among qualified hitters, his hard hit rate 73rd, maximum exit velocity 75th and average exit velocity 66th. Though he’s been striking out way too much in the past two seasons, he can still clobber the ball when he does make contact. It’s also possible he could get a boost from the upcoming bans on extreme defensive alignments, as he was one of the most-shifted hitters among the remaining free agents despite being right-handed. Voit actually has reverse splits for his career, with a 110 wRC+ against lefties and a 129 against righties. That could make platoon arrangements difficult but it also means he makes sense to be in a lineup on a regular basis.

Unfortunately, that’s about all he can really offer. He’s certainly not a burner, with his sprint speed in the 6th percentile and just a single stolen base on his career ledger. Defensively, he’s only played first base in the big leagues, apart from a single inning in right field in 2018. All three of Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating consider him to have been a below-average defender to this point in his career. He’ll turn 32 in February and is probably unlikely to suddenly turn things around in that department.

There are still some teams that could take a flier on Voit and hope that he looks more like the 2020 version than what he’s shown since. The best candidate would probably be a rebuilding team that would be hoping to turn Voit into a trade candidate on the heels of a resurgence. Since Voit has between four and five years of MLB service time, he could also be controlled for 2024 via arbitration, potentially adding to his appeal if he’s in a good groove. The A’s have Seth Brown at first base but he can also play the outfield. The Marlins are known to be looking for more offense but have the oft-injured Garrett Cooper as their first baseman at the moment. They reportedly pursued players like José Abreu, Justin Turner and Brandon Drury earlier in the offseason but came up short in those attempts. The Tigers will likely give Spencer Torkelson an extended run to show his terrible 2022 was just growing pains, but it would make some sense to have a backup plan in place. The Cubs and Orioles are known to be interested in first base upgrades, having been recently connected to Eric Hosmer.

Though there are plenty of theoretical fits, Voit will also have competition for those jobs. In addition to Hosmer, the free agent market features Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Dominic Smith and others.

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The Angels’ Potentially Elite Rotation

By Simon Hampton | January 1, 2023 at 9:46pm CDT

Despite boasting two of the most gifted players on the planet on their roster, the Angels have failed to make the playoffs since 2014 and failed to secure a winning season since 2015. As they have been for quite some time, they’ll look to change that in 2023 and return to the playoffs. While they haven’t made a splashy move, their signings of Tyler Anderson, Carlos Estevez and Brandon Drury, and acquisition of Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe have put them in good shape to do well this year.

Of course, a big challenge for the Angels is that they play in a division with the defending champion Astros, as well as the Mariners and Rangers, two teams that have big ambitions to compete this season. If they are to return to the postseason, they’ll need contributions across the board, but one area that the Angels will surely be leaning on as a strength is their starting rotation. The team has tended to work with a six-man rotation to preserve Shohei Ohtani’s workload in the past, and given they were linked with Nathan Eovaldi just before he signed with Texas, it seems likely they’ll add another starter before the season starts.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at the starting five for the Angels as things stand:

Shohei Ohtani: The Angels will be relying on their two-way superstar to have another monster season this year. There’s not a lot that hasn’t been said about how good Ohtani is, but for this exercise we’ll talk about him purely as a pitcher. He had his best year yet in 2022, throwing 166 innings of 2.33 ERA ball. The strikeouts were up, the walks were down, and Ohtani benefited a fair bit from leaning less on his fastball and throwing his slider more often. Angels manager Phil Nevin has already stated he plans to increase Ohtani’s workload next season, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles that given his other duties, but if the Angels can get another year like 2022 out of their ace they’ll come away very happy.

Tyler Anderson: Signed to a three-year, $39MM deal, the left-handed Anderson is the lone new face in the Angels starting rotation. A respectable back-of-the-rotation starter for a number of years, Anderson broke out with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA over 178 2/3 innings. It wasn’t so much an overhaul of his pitching repertoire as it was a few small tweaks (bumping up his changeup usage slightly) that seemingly did the trick for Anderson, and he induced a ton of soft contact out of opposition hitters. If he can show 2022 was no outlier Anderson will slot in as a very reliable second option behind Ohtani.

Patrick Sandoval: The second of four southpaws in the rotation, Sandoval enjoyed his own breakout year in 2022. The 26-year-old gave the Angels 148 innings of 2.91 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 23.7% clip and walking them 9.4% of the time. FIP pegged him a 3.91, which suggests a bit of regression is due, but he also had an above-average opponent’s BABIP of .316. Regardless, even if he can’t post a sub-3 ERA Sandoval definitely has the makings of a very productive starter. He struggled early on in his career, working to a 5.33 ERA between 2019-20, but has been highly effective ever since. One change he did make in 2022 was throwing his fastball less and leaning far more on his slider.

Jose Suarez: The 24-year-old hurled 109 innings of 3.96 ERA ball for the Angels last year, showing a strong 7.1% walk rate and a solid 22.3% strikeout rate, both of which improved from a year prior. He maintained his fastball usage in 2022, but mixed in a slider to his off-speed stuff (which includes a curveball and changeup) that he’d only thrown sparingly in the past. The ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but he was elite in the second half last year, working to a 2.81 ERA over 11 starts after the All Star break. Still just 24 there’s certainly a ton of promise in this youngster, and if he can build off his showing in the second half the Angels will have a very good fourth starter on their staff.

Reid Detmers: Rounding out their five is Detmers, a 23-year-old southpaw who worked to a 3.77 ERA over 129 innings last season, his first full year in the big leagues. He had a fast rise through the system after being drafted 10th overall in 2020, and given there was no minor league season that year it makes his rise to the big leagues, and strong first full season that much more impressive. Detmers owns a 93 mph fastball, and mixes in a slider, curveball and changeup. There’s plenty of upside for Detmers to tap into over the next few years, and if he can take another step forward in 2023 it won’t take long before he’s near the top of a list like this rather than rounding it out.

As noted earlier, it does seem likely that the Angels would opt to bring in a sixth starter to deepen the rotation. That could be someone like Michael Wacha or Johnny Cueto off the free agent market, or they could go with an internal option such as Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning or Chris Rodriguez. They’ve also got top pitching prospect Sam Bachman at Double-A, and getting closer to being a big league option.

Regardless of who the sixth option is, there’s a lot to like about this group, even if they were just able to put in a repeat of their 2022 performance. But the key for the Angels is there’s also a ton of upside in this group, particularly in the back of the rotation. That’s the sort of thing that could go from making this a strong rotation to one that is up there with the best in baseball. Of course, an injury or two could derail things quickly and there’s a chance that players take a step back rather than a step forward, but the potential is there for this group to be dominant.

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Free Agent Profile: Andrew McCutchen

By Simon Hampton | January 1, 2023 at 7:38pm CDT

A busy month of December has seen the free agent cupboard mostly cleared out. Yet as we begin 2023 there are still a few interesting options on the open market for teams looking for upgrades heading into the new season. Of course, many teams will look to the trade market over the next month or two – particularly if they’re after impact options – but good deals can still be found in free agency.

One such player is a former MVP, who remains a threat at the plate and is well-regarded as a veteran presence in the clubhouse. Andrew McCutchen may not be the same player that went to five-straight All Star games with the Pirates, but he could still help a lot of teams. There was a report in early December that the Rays and Dodgers had interest in McCutchen, but it’s been quiet since. The Dodgers have since signed J.D. Martinez, which may rule them out, but the Rays could still feasibly have a spot for him.

McCutchen, 36, spent the past season with the Brewers on a one-year, $8MM deal. They’d signed him on the back of three years in Philadelphia, which culminated in McCutchen hitting .222/.334/.444 with 27 home runs over 574 plate appearances. It was a solid enough season, but what perhaps got Milwaukee’s attention was the way in which McCutchen torched left-handed pitching in 2021, slashing .293/.405/.622 in 195 plate appearances against southpaws. It was particularly pronounced in 2021, but McCutchen’s splits have favored hitting against left-handers over his career.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, it wasn’t the case in 2022. McCutchen would hit just .221/.303/.435 against left-handers in Milwaukee, contributing to an overall line of .237/.316/.384 overall line of 580 plate appearances. While his walk and strikeout rates have trended in the wrong direction in recent times, they were still reasonable marks, as he struck out 21.4% of the time against a 9.8% walk rate. That was good for a wRC+ of 98, a couple of ticks below the league average but the first time it had dipped below 100 in his career. He did enjoy a 262 plate appearance tear in the middle of the summer, where he crushed 11 home runs and hit at an .868 OPS. Of course, the fact that his overall season mark was well below that suggests there were some very lean runs in there as well.

Perhaps the biggest concern from McCutchen’s season was the drop in power. He slugged 27 home runs a year prior with the Phillies, but hit just 17 last season. American Family Field in Milwaukee is generally less favorable to home run hitters than Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, but it was still a significant drop in long balls. In McCutchen’s defense, his exit velocity and HardHit% were both roughly the same as a year earlier, so he’s still making plenty of solid contact.

On the defensive side of things, McCutchen has spent most of his time in the DH spot in recent years, but can still play the outfield, and enjoyed a bit of success there in 2022. He was worth 5 Defensive Runs Saved in a small sample of 268 1/3 innings, while he also spent a small amount of time in right and center. He did make 82 appearances in the DH spot and his days of being an everyday outfielder are probably over, but he’s by no means a liability in the field and his numbers in 2022 could encourage a new team to give him a larger workload in the field in 2023.

McCutchen will likely sign another one-year deal, quite possibly in the same range as the $8MM salary he took home in 2022. At this stage of free agency, most of the players available have some flaws, but McCutchen could still work as a solid option for a number of teams. He still has ~20 home run power, draws walks at a bit above the league average rate and doesn’t strike out too often. While he’s not likely to be a team’s everyday outfielder, he could shift around the corner outfield spots, making DH appearances and allowing teams to spell their starting outfielders on a regular basis. Further to that, McCutchen’s got a good clubhouse reputation and could perhaps work on a contending team with a slightly younger roster. While he’s unlikely to be a difference maker at this point, teams could do worse than bringing in the veteran to deepen their roster for the upcoming season.

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How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2022

By Mark Polishuk | January 1, 2023 at 1:02pm CDT

We covered the American League’s 15 teams earlier today, so now let’s check in on how the National League’s 15 members have done (to date) in fixing their biggest problem positions from the 2022 season.  Baseball Reference’s position-by-position bWAR breakdown is our guide through last year’s numbers….

Braves (Left Field, -1.4 bWAR): The lowest total of any outfield position in baseball, left field was a glaring weak spot in an otherwise very strong Atlanta lineup.  Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna will look to bounce back from down years, but the Braves have otherwise only tinkered rather than overhauled the position, adding depth pieces like Sam Hilliard, Eli White, and Jordan Luplow to the mix.  One can never rule Alex Anthopoulos out for making a bigger acquisition, and the Braves are one of the many teams asking the Pirates about Bryan Reynolds.  However, with these many options on board and a lot of strength elsewhere on the roster, Atlanta might opt to stand pat in left field for now, and only pursue help if nobody steps up during the season.

Brewers (Catcher, 0.9 bWAR): Speaking of big Braves trades, the Brewers got themselves involved in the huge three-team blockbuster that brought Sean Murphy to Atlanta.  The deal brought Milwaukee its own catcher of the future, as William Contreras has already delivered on his hitting potential with an All-Star performance in 2022.  Contreras will join Victor Caratini behind the plate, and with Omar Narveaz and Pedro Severino departing in free agency, Payton Henry was also acquired from the Marlins as a depth move.

Cardinals (Catcher, 0.4 bWAR): Both Contreras brothers will be in the NL Central, as William’s big brother Willson Contreras jumped from the Cubs to the Cardinals on a five-year, $87.5MM free agent deal.  St. Louis led the majors in non-pitcher bWAR in 2022, though catcher was the weak spot, as injuries hampered Yadier Molina’s farewell season and backup Andrew Knizner didn’t provide much during fill-in duty.  With Molina hanging up his cleats, the Cards will now replace Molina with another established star backstop.

Cubs (Center Field, -0.1 bWAR): Cody Bellinger’s offense has badly fallen off since his 2019 MVP season, but his glovework remains very strong.  In signing Bellinger to a one-year deal worth $17.5MM in guaranteed money, Chicago is hoping that his defense alone will shore things up in center field, but naturally the Cubs would love to see Bellinger recapture his old batting form.  First base (0.1 bWAR) was another weak point for the Cubs, and a veteran addition like Eric Hosmer might yet be added, but Chicago is also planning to give breakout prospect Matt Mervis a long look at the MLB level.

Diamondbacks (Relief Pitching, -4.4 bWAR): For comparison’s sake, the Pirates’ -0.8 total was the second-worst bullpen bWAR number, giving you an idea of just how little Arizona received from its relief corps.  The D’Backs inked Scott McGough to a two-year/$6.25MM deal, with McGough making his return to the majors after a very successful four-year stint in Japan.  McGough could be something of a hidden gem, and he joins several other new arms (Miguel Castro, Cole Sulser, Miguel Vargas, Zach McAllister, Austin Brice, Sam Clay, and more) as the bullpen options the Diamondbacks will sort through during Spring Training.

Dodgers (Pinch-Hitting, 0.8 bWAR): The Dodgers’ 61.4 total bWAR led all 30 teams, even though both center field (1.5) and left field (1.6) were relative weaker links among the everyday positions.  Even the lower pinch-hitting total wasn’t exactly bad, even if Los Angeles did have a bit less depth than in recent years.  With the Dodgers almost exactly slated to meet the $233MM luxury tax threshold, it remains to be seen if L.A. will exceed the threshold again or perhaps look to reset its tax penalties, which might limit what the Dodgers can do in amassing more depth.  Youngsters like Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, and James Outman are being groomed for larger roles in 2023, so the Dodgers might first see if they can fill some holes from within.  Veterans like Jason Heyward, Bradley Zimmer, and Steven Duggar have also been signed to minor league contracts.

Giants (Designated Hitter, 0.1 bWAR): The platooning and lineup-juggling that worked so well for San Francisco in 2021 backfired last year, as catcher was the only lineup position with a collective bWAR above the 1.2 mark.  The DH spot was at the bottom of the list, and such frequent designated hitters as Tommy La Stella and Evan Longoria are already gone.  Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto figure to boost the DH spot when they’re not in the outfield, but by and large, the Giants will keep cycling multiple players through the DH role to keep everyone healthy.

Marlins (Right Field, -0.7 bWAR): Despite signing Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53MM deal winter, the Marlins still got sub-replacement numbers out of the right field spot, as Garcia battled hamstring injuries and had a dreadful year at the plate.  Miami has enough money committed to Garcia that there isn’t much to do except hope for a rebound, which isn’t out of the question given that Garcia has alternated between good and bad seasons over the last six years.  Center field is the more pressing outfield position for the Marlins, and first base (0.0 bWAR) and catcher (0.1 bWAR) are also problem areas.

Mets (Pinch-Hitting, 0.0 bWAR): With the Carlos Correa signing not yet official, we’ll wait before declaring that Eduardo Escobar will be an overqualified backup for the Amazins’ next season.  However, the Mets might be more likely to keep Escobar than trade him to a team that can offer more playing time, since the Mets will want plenty of depth to keep its World Series push from being waylaid by injuries (especially given whatever concerns New York has about Correa’s health).  Among everyday positions, the Mets only got 0.1 bWAR from the catching spot, but James McCann was traded to the Orioles and Omar Narvaez was signed.  With Narvaez, Tomas Nido, and star prospect Francisco Alvarez ready for the majors, the Mets are expecting a lot more from behind the plate.

Nationals (Starting Pitching, -4.8 bWAR): If the Diamondbacks were feeling bad about their lackluster bullpen, here come the Nats with an even bigger gap between last and second-last place in a single position.  The Tigers were 29th in the majors with a cumulative 1.7 rotation bWAR, making Washington the only team with sub-replacement performance from their entire starting pitching corps.  Trevor Williams was signed to a two-year, $13MM deal to provide some help, but since the rebuild is on, D.C. will be limited to similar veterans on modest deals rather than any big splashes.  The Nationals are counting on youngsters Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Cade Cavalli to take some steps forward in 2023, and getting any kind of rebound from Patrick Corbin or good health from Stephen Strasburg would be immensely helpful to the Nats’ efforts.

Padres (Pinch-Hitting, 0.4 bWAR): The DH spot was next on the list with 1.2 bWAR, adding to the Padres’ overall goal of building more depth.  Josh Bell, Wil Myers, Brandon Drury, and Nomar Mazara have all signed elsewhere, but San Diego’s blockbuster signing of Xander Bogaerts shuffled around the everyday lineup to the extent that Fernando Tatis Jr. now looks slated for the outfield when his suspension is over.  Matt Carpenter was also signed to aid the DH mix, and since president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is nothing if not aggressive, any number of trade possibilities are still open for the Padres to further bolster the position player ranks.

Phillies (Right Field, 0.4 bWAR): Bryce Harper’s torn UCL limited him to DH duty for almost the entire season, leaving Nick Castellanos handling most of the action in right field.  Unfortunately for the Phils, Castellanos struggled both offensively and defensively, delivering a subpar -0.1 bWAR in his first season in Philadelphia.  Since Harper will be out until at least midseason while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Castellanos will have to hold the fort, though he might get more DH at-bats on days when Matt Vierling or Dalton Guthrie are used in the outfield.  The Phillies got 0.6 bWAR from both the center field and shortstop positions in 2022, but center field might’ve already been addressed by the midseason trade for Brandon Marsh, and the Phils upgraded at shortstop in a major way with their signing of Trea Turner.

Pirates (First Base, -2.1 bWAR): Pittsburgh had low bWAR scores over most positions, with right field, the bullpen, pinch-hitter, and catcher also clocking with negative figures.  With first base standing out as the biggest issue, the Bucs swiftly moved on from Yoshi Tsutsugo and Michael Chavis by signing Carlos Santana and swinging trades for Ji-Man Choi and Connor Joe.  Santana and Choi figure to essentially split first base duty, and Santana in particular could be in line for a bounce-back year given how heavily opposing teams have used defensive shifts against him in recent years.  With the new rules restricting the use of shifts, Santana figure to improve on his roughly league-average offense from 2022.

Reds (Catcher and Center Field, -0.8 bWAR): Like their NL Central brethren in Pittsburgh, the Reds are another rebuilding team with needs all over the diamond, including four positions that had sub-replacement bWAR totals.  Curt Casali and Luke Maile were signed to play catcher, but getting a healthy year from Tyler Stephenson (even if Stephenson sees additional time as a first baseman or DH) will be Cincinnati’s biggest boost in that regard.  If Nick Senzel can stay healthy, he’ll still be the Reds’ top choice in center field, but the club has been looking around for help in center and might even be willing to trade from its surplus of young shortstop prospects to land an equally promising young outfielder.

Rockies (Catcher, 0.1 bWAR): There hasn’t been much buzz about the Rox getting involved in the catching market, so it seems likely the team will just run it back and hope for better results from Elias Diaz and backup Brian Serven.  Diaz signed a three-year, $14.5MM extension in November 2021, and followed up that long-term pact by hitting only .228/.281/.368 over 381 plate appearances.  Given the lack of MLB experience on the catching depth chart, the Rockies will probably sign at least one veteran backstop to a minor league deal, if for no other reason than to provide Serven with some competition in Spring Training.

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How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2022

By Mark Polishuk | January 1, 2023 at 10:34am CDT

New Year’s Day isn’t technically the midpoint of the baseball offseason, yet with business slightly paused as the calendar turns to 2023, it seems like a good time to see how teams have taken care of some of the most pressing items on their to-do list.  With a tip of the cap to Baseball Reference’s bWAR breakdown of how each club performed by position in 2022, let’s explore how the American League’s 15 teams have looked to correct their biggest positions of need.

Angels (First Base, -1.0 bWAR): The top-heavy Angels are known for superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, but the club also had sub-replacement production at a whopping five positions.  First base was the lowest of the bunch, as Jared Walsh struggled through a rough season that was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.  While Walsh is expected to be ready for Spring Training, the Halos picked up some depth and insurance by acquiring Gio Urshela from the Twins and signing Brandon Drury, either of whom could see action at first base when not playing elsewhere around the diamond.

Astros (Catcher, -0.8 bWAR): Unsurprisingly, the World Series champions were pretty strong across the board, apart from sub-replacement numbers at catcher and first base (-0.4 bWAR).  The signing of Jose Abreu instantly updated first base, though Martin Maldonado and prospect Korey Lee remain the top options behind the plate. Houston reportedly had interest in such free agents and trade targets as Willson Contreras, Sean Murphy, Tucker Barnhart, and old friend Christian Vazquez, and while these players have all found new homes, it still feels like the Astros will bring at least one new catcher into the fold by Spring Training.

Athletics (Third Base, -1.2 bWAR): Oakland’s combined 9.1 bWAR was the lowest of any team in baseball, yet another dubious distinction for the A’s in a 102-loss season.  After Matt Chapman was traded to the Blue Jays last offseason, third base turned into the weakest of the Athletics’ many weak links.  Vimael Machin and Sheldon Neuse got the bulk of playing time at the hot corner in 2022 but both are now off the roster, leaving Kevin Smith and newly-signed utilitymen Jace Peterson and Aledmys Diaz in line to help stabilize things at third base.

Blue Jays (Pinch-Hitting, 1.4 bWAR): With a heavily right-handed starting lineup, the Jays filled their bench with left-handed hitters like Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, and Jackie Bradley Jr. all of whom struggled at the plate.  This lack of depth became apparent pretty much every time a regular starter was injured, or when the Blue Jays needed a bat off the bench for an important late-game at-bat.  In theory, a full season of Whit Merrifield should help the depth, as at least two of Merrifield, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, or even Kevin Kiermaier or Daulton Varsho should be available off the bench.  However, Toronto seems likely to seek out at least one more veteran backup type this winter.  In terms of everyday positions, Jays left fielders were the lowest with 2.1 bWAR — Toronto has addressed that area by adding Varsho, and trading former regular left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Diamondbacks as part of that swap.

Guardians (Catcher, -0.1 bWAR): Austin Hedges and Luke Maile provided very little offense, which wasn’t a huge concern for a Guardians team that has long prioritized defense from its backstops.  However, Bo Naylor made his MLB debut last season, and the Guards are hopeful that the prospect can provide both good glovework and some pop from the catching spot.  With Hedges and Maile both departing in free agency, Cleveland added Mike Zunino, another good defender who is inconsistent at the plate but has delivered some big power numbers in the past.

Mariners (Second Base, 0.4 bWAR): Seattle hopes Kolten Wong can fill the gap at the keystone, after the Mariners acquired Wong in the trade that sent Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to the Brewers.  Even in an uncharacteristically poor defensive year for Wong in 2022, he still generated 3.1 bWAR, marking a vast improvement over what the Mariners got from the position last year.  Second base just edged out left field (0.5 bWAR) as Seattle’s biggest need, and the latter position remains a bit of a question mark.  With Winker and Kyle Lewis both dealt and Teoscar Hernandez acquired to handle right field, the Mariners will likely still look to improve over the current mix of Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, and utilitymen Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty.

Orioles (Second Base, 0.1 bWAR): One team’s castaway is another team’s upgrade, while the Mariners looked to improve on Adam Frazier, Baltimore inked him to a one-year, $8MM contract.  Frazier brings a veteran presence to a young and still unsettled Orioles infield, as while Frazier will probably get the bulk of time at second base, it remains exactly to be seen if Gunnar Henderson will be deployed as the regular third baseman or shortstop.  Ramon Urias, Terrin Vavra, Jorge Mateo, and a wealth of other up-and-coming prospects will also factor into the infield picture.  Frazier had a rough offensive year in 2022, but he brought more to the table than Rougned Odor, whose clubhouse leadership didn’t make up for a -0.4 bWAR.

Rangers (Left Field, -1.0 bWAR): Texas has been focused on pitching, as between retaining Martin Perez via the qualifying offer and adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi, the Rangers have done a lot to improve a starting mix that ranked 25th of 30 teams in rotation bWAR.  With the rotation now addressed in major fashion, left field is the next item on the checklist for Texas GM Chris Young.  Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger were among the names on the Rangers’ radar before both outfielders signed with the Giants.  Young will continue to look to add a veteran bat to either replace or complement the Rangers’ younger options in left field.

Rays (Catcher, 0.2 bWAR): As usual, the Rays were pretty solid at every position, though catcher remains an ongoing concern for the organization.  With Zunino gone, Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejia are the incumbents, and Tampa Bay at least explored a big upgrade in checking in on the Sean Murphy trade market.  However, now that Murphy is in Atlanta and many of the other top available names have landed elsewhere, the Rays may once again be facing more of a second-tier addition.

Red Sox (First Base, -0.5 bWAR): Top prospect Triston Casas made his MLB debut last season, and Boston’s hope is that Casas will live up to that potential quickly.  Such a breakout could solve the first base position for years to come, though to alleviate some pressure on Casas, the Red Sox also acquired Justin Turner with an eye towards giving the veteran some time at first base and DH.  On paper, Rafael Devers might also get some first base time if Turner fills in at third base.  As for other first base options, the Sox already parted ways with Eric Hosmer, and Bobby Dalbec is being shopped in trade talks.

Royals (Shortstop, 0.2 bWAR): Bobby Witt had a solid rookie season, beginning the year as Kansas City’s third baseman before moving into pretty much everyday duty at shortstop.  Witt’s glovework at both positions was pretty rough, but the Royals are hopeful that their young cornerstone can improve enough to provide at least passable defense at shortstop, even if Witt’s long-term position might still be a question.  The Royals haven’t done much with their position player mix at all, and so if Witt has to be moved back to third base, the incumbent answers at shortstop are still Nicky Lopez and (if healthy) Adalberto Mondesi.  Prospect Maikel Garcia made his MLB debut in 2022 and could also factor into the backup picture.

Tigers (First Base, -1.3 bWAR): Another case of a team counting on a youngster to blossom, as there’s really nowhere to go but up for Spencer Torkelson after a mediocre rookie season.  The former first overall pick hit only .203/.285/.319 in his first 404 Major League PA, and was temporarily demoted back to Triple-A at midseason.  Since the Tigers seem to be taking a step back after a team-wide letdown in 2022, Torkelson will still get plenty of playing time, and it’s far too early to write off a rookie who is still only 23 years old.  The Tigers have been linked to Brian Anderson and Edwin Rios, two free agents that could be part-time options at first base when they’re not at the hot corner.

Twins (Catcher, 1.0 bWAR): Christian Vazquez was signed to a three-year, $30MM deal, as Vazquez will take over the starting catching duties even though Ryan Jeffers will still get a good chunk of playing time.  Vazquez brings experience, a solid bat, and quality defense, so his signing should instantly patch one of the holes on Minnesota’s roster.

White Sox (Catcher, Right Field, each -0.4 bWAR): The Pale Hose were yet another team who had interest in trading for Murphy, and Chicago is still looking for a catcher as a platoon partner or even a replacement for Yasmani Grandal.  Gavin Sheets is the favorite for playing time in right field until prospect Oscar Colas is ready, though the White Sox did improve their outfield mix as a whole by signing Andrew Benintendi for left field and moving Andrew Vaughn from the corner spots to first base.  Sheets isn’t a strong defender either, but limiting the shaky glovework to just one outfield position is a step up for the White Sox.

Yankees (Left Field, Pinch-Hitting, each 2.0 bWAR): New York led all American League teams with 54.7 total bWAR, so their “weak positions” are still pretty solid.  Benintendi, Joey Gallo, Miguel Andujar, Marwin Gonzalez, and Matt Carpenter have all been removed from the revolving door that was left field in Yankee Stadium, leaving intriguing rookie Oswaldo Cabrera, struggling veteran Aaron Hicks, and slugger Giancarlo Stanton (when Stanton isn’t in his primary DH role) as the top options.  Former top prospect Estevan Florial could also get a look for more playing time.  This all being said, the Yankees also seem to be eyeing more help, and have explored trades with such teams as the Pirates, Twins, and Diamondbacks while also speaking with free agents like Benintendi, Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo.  Willie Calhoun and Billy McKinney were also just signed to minors deals, but with the free agent market drying up, New York will probably have to turn to the trade route for a more substantive addition in left field.

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