MLBTR Originals

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

By Steve Adams | August 9, 2022 at 11:57pm CDT

A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four- and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Can Edwin Diaz Get A Record-Breaking Contract?

By Darragh McDonald | August 9, 2022 at 7:16pm CDT

In the upcoming free agent class, there’s no debate about the top available relief pitcher. Mets’ closer Edwin Diaz is arguably the best reliever in the entire sport right now and will be the jewel of that segment of free agency.

Now 28, Diaz burst onto the scene with the Mariners at the age of 22, recording 18 saves as a rookie. After two more excellent seasons as Seattle’s closer, he was traded to the Mets, partly as a way for the Mariners to get out from under Robinson Cano’s contract. Though he struggled in 2019, his first season in Queens, he righted the ship over the next couple of seasons. Coming into this year, Diaz had a career 3.23 ERA with a 38.6% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 40.2% ground ball rate.

Despite that excellent body of work, he’s somehow found a way to take his game to new heights here in 2022. Through 45 1/3 innings on the year, he has a miniscule 1.39 ERA. 48.5% of batted balls against him are going into the ground, which is a career high and well above the 43.3% league average for relievers. His 7% walk rate is a few points better than the 9.1% rate for relievers around the league. But most impressively, he is striking out 52.9% of batters who come to the plate, well beyond his career high and more than double the 23.4% average for bullpen arms. That rate is easily the best among all pitchers in baseball with at least 20 innings pitched on the year, with Josh Hader coming in a distant second at 41.9%.

Diaz’s Statcast page is blood red, with the hurler coming in the 100th percentile in terms of strikeout rate and whiff rate, 99th percentile in terms of average exit velocity, barrel percentage and chase rate, and 87th percentile in hard hit rate. Hitters aren’t hitting him and rarely inflict any damage when they do. He averages 99 mph on his fastball and 90.7 mph on his slider.

If Diaz continues pitching at this elite level, could he push for a record-breaking contract, either in total dollars or average annual value? The largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher is the five-year deal signed between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees prior to the 2017 campaign, which was for $86MM over five years, with Chapman eligible to opt out after three. That amounts to an average annual value of $17.2MM. Also worth noting, Liam Hendriks and the White Sox signed a four-year, $54MM contract prior to the 2021 season. The last year of the contract is technically a $15MM club option with a $15MM buyout. If the club chooses to buy him out, they will pay him that $15MM deferred over a ten-year period instead of paying it all out during the 2024 campaign. This unique contract, depending on how you look at it, either has an AAV of $13.5MM over four years or $18MM over three years. For those in the latter camp, Hendriks will be included in the forthcoming analysis.

When Chapman signed his contract, he was going into his age-29 season, which is the same situation as Diaz. Hendriks was going into his age-32 season. But what about performance? Here are all three pitchers in their final year before free agency, for comparison.

Chapman in 2016: 58 innings, 1.55 ERA, 40.5% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate, 46% ground ball rate.
Hendriks in 2020: 25 1/3 innings, 1.78 ERA, 40.2% strikeout rate, 3.3% walk rate, 32% ground ball rate.
Diaz in 2022: 45 1/3 innings, 1.39 ERA, 52.9% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, 48.5% ground ball rate.

Here’s the three seasons leading into free agency:

Chapman in 2014-2016: 178 1/3 innings, 1.72 ERA, 44.4% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, 41.8% ground ball rate.
Hendriks in 2018-2020: 134 1/3 innings, 2.21 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 33.4% ground ball rate.
Diaz in 2020-2022: 133 2/3 innings, 2.42 ERA, 42.7% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 39.8% ground ball rate.

I think it’s fair to say that Diaz will be entering free agency with a less consistent track record than either Hendriks or Chapman. Hendriks’ track record, broadly speaking, was less overpowering but also less wild. The shortened 2020 season was the first time he posted a strikeout rate above 40%, but he also had never posted a double-digit walk rate. Chapman had a double-digit walk rate four times prior to reaching free agency, but also got strikeouts above 40% five straight seasons from 2012 to 2016, including a 52.5% rate in 2014. Diaz had an 11.5% walk rate in 2017 and then 12.7% in the shortened 2020 campaign but hasn’t had alarming numbers of free passes apart from that. He’s also gone beyond a 40% strikeout rate three times prior to this year, though never for two seasons in a row.

Looking just at the platform seasons, Hendriks limited walks in the shortened campaign, but got far less strikeouts and ground balls than the other two. Chapman trails Diaz in every rate category, however, with Diaz just 12 2/3 innings behind in terms of the sample size. If he can maintain this over the season’s final months, he could argue that he’s a better option now than Chapman was in 2017. Also, given that Chapman’s contract will be six years old this winter, there’s an argument that the natural trajectory of inflation should lead to Diaz getting a larger contract than Chapman, if they were considered equally talented. One thing working against Diaz, however, is the qualifying offer. Chapman was traded from the Yankees to the Cubs midseason in 2016, making him ineligible to receive a QO. Diaz, on the other hand, is a lock to receive one, meaning any team that signs him would be subject to draft pick forfeiture and potentially other penalties.

All in all, it seems like Chapman and Diaz make for fairly close comps. Hendriks was a bit older and got a shorter contract, with unique accounting measures inflating the AAV on paper. Diaz will be the same age as Chapman was at the time of his contract, both of them having strong track records and dominant platform seasons. Chapman didn’t have the QO attached but Diaz will have six years of inflationary progress helping push his dollars up.

There’s still some time for Diaz to change the calculus one way or another, and there’s also the postseason to consider, as Chapman pitched for the championship Cubs in 2016. He threw 15 2/3 innings in the playoffs that year, but not quite at his level from the regular season. The competition in the postseason is naturally higher than otherwise, but Chapman put up an ERA of 3.45 in that time, with a diminished 33.9% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate. Since Diaz pitches for the Mets, who have a seven-game lead in the NL East and are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs, Diaz should get a chance to showcase his talents against the game’s highest competition and on its brightest stage. If he thrives there as he’s thrived elsewhere this year, he’ll have a chance to take the throne as the game’s highest-paid reliever ever.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

By Anthony Franco | August 9, 2022 at 5:53pm CDT

Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

The Mariners Shouldn’t Ignore The Free Agent Shortstop Market This Year

By Darragh McDonald | August 8, 2022 at 6:30pm CDT

This past offseason featured a super class of free agent shortstops: Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. However, very early in the offseason, just one week after the World Series ended, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made it publicly known they were unlikely be big players in this arena. Incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford had been told he was going to stay at that position for the club, regardless of what the rumors said. While that theoretically left the door open for one of those shortstops to be signed to play another position such as second base, that didn’t come to pass.

In order to address their middle infield, they made a much more modest move. In late November, just prior to the lockout, the Mariners acquired Adam Frazier from the Padres. Frazier wasn’t as exciting of a pickup as one of those free agents would have been, but he was a sensible addition nonetheless. His left-handed bat meant that he and switch-hitting Abraham Toro could have formed a second base platoon. Frazier also can play the outfield, which he could have done in the event Toro established himself as an everyday option at the keystone. The M’s saved their big free agent splash for the rotation, signing Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM deal.

Now two-thirds of the way through the season, it’s fair to wonder if this approach has paid off. Frazier has largely had a disappointing season, failing to build on his strong 2021. He hit .305/.368/.411 last year for a wRC+ of 114, indicating his overall offensive production was 14% above league average. This year, however, he’s slumped to a line of .246/.309/.315, wRC+ of 85. Toro’s been even worse, with a batting line of .180/.239/.322 on the year for a wRC+ of 61. On the year overall, Seattle second basemen have produced 0.7 fWAR, a mark that ranks 22nd among major league teams.

As for the shortstop position, Crawford has gotten the vast majority of the time there, with Dylan Moore getting a handful of starts throughout the season. Crawford got out to a blistering start, hitting .360/.449/.573 through the end of April with three home runs. He hasn’t been able to maintain that, however, hitting .231/.301/.304, adding just two more homers in that span. That leaves his overall batting line at .257/.333/.358, good enough for a 105 wRC+ that’s still above average, though it’s been sliding for over three months straight at this point.

There are also questions about his defense here in 2022, with the advanced metrics in disagreement on his 2022 work. Defensive Runs Saved has him at plus-three so far this year, a dip from last year’s eight, though he could potentially close some of the gap in the season’s final few months. Ultimate Zone Rating has him at 1.3, an improvement over last year’s 0.8 but behind the pace of the 2.5 he earned in the shortened 2020 season. Outs Above Average is the most bearish, giving Crawford -7 so far this year, after giving him zero last year and six in 2020. Combined, Mariner shortstops have produced 1.6 fWAR on the season, a mark that’s 17th in the majors.

Subpar production from both middle infield positions surely isn’t ideal, but it hasn’t decimated the team’s chances. The Mariners are 59-51, currently holding the final American League Wild Card spot, but with the Orioles and Guardians just a couple games back and both Sox clubs just behind them. The M’s are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001 and break the longest active postseason drought in the league, though we may not know whether they succeed or not until the final days of the season.

Whether they break that drought or not, Seattle might want to think about being more involved in the shortstop market this winter. The Mariners committed to Crawford on a $46.15MM extension just before opening day, so he’s certainly going to keep a regular role. There’s a case to be made for exploring the shortstop market and considering moving Crawford across the bag, however. There’s another strong shortstop class this winter, with Correa likely to opt-out of his contract with the Twins and re-enter the open market. Xander Bogaerts is widely expected to opt-out as well. Then there’s also Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson, who are each in their final season of club control. Frazier is also heading into free agency, which will subtract from a middle infield mix that is already weak.

None of those players will be cheap, but Seattle should give some thought to paying out. For one thing, if they miss out on those four, the fifth-best option is probably Jose Iglesias, who’s having a fine season but is undoubtedly on a lower tier than those other guys. For another thing, the Mariners have the payroll space to pull this off. The club ran an Opening Day payroll of $104MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’s a far cry from the club’s highest spending, as they were in the $140-160MM range from 2016-2019. Next year’s payroll is only at about $67MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players, but that won’t add a tremendous amount. Luis Castillo is likely the only player of the bunch to get a significant salary next year, probably getting into eight figures after making $7.35MM this year.

They also shouldn’t have too many other holes to address. All six of their rotation candidates can be controlled again in 2023, with Ray and Marco Gonzales under contract, Castillo having one more arb year, and George Kirby and Logan Gilbert still pre-arb. The Mariners have a $4MM club option for Chris Flexen’s 2023 services, though that will vest to $8MM and become guaranteed if he throws 300 innings combined between last year and this year. He’s currently at 296 2/3, making him a virtual lock to stick with Seattle next year, barring injury.

Elsewhere on the roster, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez should still have the corners covered. Catchers Cal Raleigh and Luis Torrens are both still around next year, with Tom Murphy potentially returning to health and coming back as well. Despite possibly losing Mitch Haniger to free agency, the outfield will still have a deep mix that includes Julio Rodriguez, Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Sam Haggerty, Derek Hill and Taylor Trammell. Dylan Moore can be retained via arbitration for more utility duty. The relief corps can all be retained via arbitration except for Ken Giles, who’s barely pitched this year but can be brought back via a $9.5MM club option if the team wants.

Taking all that into consideration, the middle infield seems like the clearest way to upgrade the team for 2023. Two of this year’s super class of shortstops (Story and Semien) ended up signing to be second baseman, which is one way the M’s could go, though that requires buy-in from the player. It’s unclear if any of Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson or Correa would be interested in such an arrangement. It might be wise for them to soften their stance on Crawford’s permanence at the shortstop position, since they have the money and the roster to go after a marquee shortstop this winter.

How To Acquire Players After The Trade Deadline

By Steve Adams | August 5, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

Not long ago, every August at MLBTR kicked off by reminding longtime MLB fans (or explaining to new fans) how the dizzying rules regarding August trade waivers worked. It was a convoluted process — one that saw nearly every player in the league placed on revocable trade waivers at some point (heavy emphasis on “revocable”) — but one that front offices increasingly used as creative means to pull off significant acquisitions after the supposed “deadline.”

In reality, under the old rules, the first “trade deadline” was never the actual deadline — it just wasn’t as catchy to use the full term, “non-waiver trade deadline.” As time progressed, the month of August increasingly served as a means of swapping out higher-priced talents in waiver trades that were still quite noteworthy. If you’re seeing Justin Verlander, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and others change hands in late August, just before the deadline for postseason eligibility, then was July 31 (or, in the case of this year, Aug. 2) really the trade “deadline?” Not so much.

Back in 2019, Major League Baseball opted to quash the ever-growing process of August roster reconstruction. The league put an end to waiver trades that often served as a means of teams hitting the “eject” button on notable contracts and saw larger-payroll clubs take on those deals simply because they possessed the financial wherewithal to do so. MLB implemented a more concrete “true” trade deadline that prohibited players on Major League contracts — or any who had previously been on Major League contracts earlier in the season (i.e. since-outrighted players) — from being traded after the deadline.

Does that mean teams can no longer acquire new players or address injuries as they arise? No, but their avenues to do so are substantially narrower. Here’s a look at how Major League front offices can still augment their roster now that the “true” trade deadline has passed:

1. Trades!

Wait, what? I thought we just–

Yes, we did. But it turns out that the “true” trade deadline is really only the “true” trade deadline for Major League players! Fun how that works, right? In all likelihood, you’ll still see several players change hands this month, they just won’t be very exciting. But, veterans who’ve been playing the entire season on a minor league contract and haven’t at any point been added to the 40-man roster or been on the Major League injured list are still fair game to be traded.

Will you see any huge, blockbuster names flipped? No, but could you see the Rays trade Chase Anderson (4.38 ERA in 74 Triple-A innings this season) or the White Sox trade Dan Winkler (3.60 ERA, 39 strikeouts but also 19 walks in 30 Triple-A frames)? Yes! It just can’t be in exchange for anyone who’s been on the 40-man roster or Major League injured list at any point in 2022.

Last August’s slate of trades saw a handful of recognizable names dealt: Delino DeShields (twice!), Brad Peacock, Dustin Garneau, Mallex Smith, John Axford and Andrew Vasquez were all on the move for either marginal prospects or the ever-popular “cash considerations.”

Just to speculate a bit — and we haven’t really seen this in the past, but it’s technically possible — teams technically can engineer minor league trades, so long as the players involved have not been on the 40-man roster at any point in a given season. It’s doubtful we’ll see any top prospects change hands in this regard, but it’s not expressly forbidden, either.

And, just to rain on your parade, no — teams cannot game the system using players to be named later. The rules pertaining to the “true” trade deadline made sure to include the following language:

“The Commissioner’s Office will prohibit any transaction (or series of transactions) that, in the judgment of the Commissioner’s Office, appears (or appear) designed to circumvent the prohibitions of Rule 9(b).”

Nice try, folks, but don’t get your hopes up.

Just remember, anyone acquired after Aug. 31 isn’t postseason-eligible with his new club, so minor swaps of any relative note will likely take place before the calendar flips to September. (MLBTR has confirmed with a source that despite Opening Day being pushed back and the trade deadline falling two days later than usual in 2022, the postseason eligibility deadline remains 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31.)

It won’t lead to any exciting trades, but we’ll still see some trades this month. You’ll just have to wait until the offseason for the Shohei Ohtani, Pablo Lopez, Sean Murphy, Bryan Reynolds, etc. rumors to fire up.

2. Outright and Release Waivers

Revocable trade waivers are no longer a thing, but regular old outright waivers and release waivers are alive and well. Any time a player is designated for assignment now, the team’s only recourse will be to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. At that point, the other 29 teams will have the opportunity to claim that player … and the entirety of his remaining contract. Of course, a team doesn’t need to announce a DFA or even announce that a player has been put on waivers. It’s fairly common for a team to just announce that a player cleared waivers and was outrighted to a minor league affiliate without ever publicly declaring a DFA.

An important reminder on waivers now that it’s the primary means of acquiring talent from another organization: waiver priority is determined based on overall record (worst record to best record) and, unlike the now-retired “revocable trade waivers,” is not league-specific. If the Nationals want Dinelson Lamet, whom the Brewers designated for assignment this week, they’ll have first crack at claiming him off waivers; if they pass, the A’s are up next. Then the Royals. And so on and so forth.

Teams who didn’t find sufficient interest in veteran players prior to the trade deadline and thus held onto them could eventually place those players on outright waivers in August, hoping another club will claim said player and simply spare the waiving team some cash. This is likelier to happen late in the month — when there’s less cash owed on those veteran contracts. We did see a handful of these moves just last year. The Giants claimed Jose Quintana from the Angels. The Reds claimed Asdrubal Cabrera from the D-backs. This could also be viewed as a means of granting a veteran player on a non-contender the opportunity to join a postseason race.

As with any minor league trades, players claimed off waivers will only be postseason-eligible with their new club if claimed before 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31.

3. Sign Free Agents

Same as ever. Anyone who gets released or rejects an outright assignment in favor of free agency will be able to sign with a new team and, so long as the deal is wrapped up prior to Sept. 1, they’ll be postseason-eligible with a new team. It’s certainly feasible that a once-productive veteran enjoys a hot streak with a new club or fills a useful part-time role. Some team with suspect outfield depth and/or defense is probably going to sign Jackie Bradley Jr. for his glove alone once he inevitably becomes a free agent in a few days (no one is claiming the remainder of his $9.5MM salary and the $8MM option buyout on his contract). Didi Gregorius was just cut loose by the Phillies. Others will follow suit.

One key name to consider: former Mets All-Star Michael Conforto. The 29-year-old didn’t sign a contract last offseason after rejecting a qualifying offer, and it was eventually revealed that a shoulder injury sustained during MLB’s lockout period ultimately required surgery. Now that the amateur draft has passed, a team would no longer need to forfeit any draft picks to sign him. Agent Scott Boras said back in May that there was a chance Conforto could be Major League-ready by September, and Boras said after the draft that he’d heard from four clubs regarding Conforto. Whether a team actually signs Conforto, of course, will be dependent on the state of that surgically repaired shoulder.

Outside of Conforto it might be unlikely that this avenue results in acquiring an impact playoff contributor — but it also can’t be ruled out. The Braves’ acquisition of Eddie Rosario at last year’s trade deadline isn’t directly analogous, but Rosario was effectively dumped in the Braves’ lap for salary relief after hitting .254/.296/.389 in Cleveland. He spent several weeks on the injured list, then returned with one of the most torrid heaters of his notoriously streaky career, culminating in NLCS MVP honors. Yes, that’s a trade, but we’ll still see teams hoping to “salary dump” veterans in similar fashion.

Point being: just as Rosario did, a veteran hitter who has underwhelmed elsewhere can still play a key role in a postseason push and even in a playoff series. Cody Ross can probably still eat and drink for free in San Francisco for the rest of his life.

4. Scour the Independent Leagues

Roll your eyes all you want, but the Atlantic League, Frontier League and American Association (among other indie circuits) are all teeming with former big leaguers. Need a speedy fourth outfielder who can provide some late-game defense and baserunning during September roster expansion? A platoon bat off the bench? An extra southpaw to stash in the bullpen? There will be experienced names to consider.

Matt Adams has 21 homers in 306 plate appearances with the Kansas City Monarchs. His teammate, former Tigers/Red Sox lefty Matt Hall, has a 1.24 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 51 innings. Fellow lefty Tyler Webb has had similar success with the Long Island Ducks.

Granted, teams aren’t likely to find a true impact player on the indie scene, but then again, people cracked jokes when the 2015 Red Sox signed then-35-year-old Ducks lefty Rich Hill. Seven years, 737 Major League innings and nearly $70MM later, Hill has the last laugh.

5. Look to Foreign Leagues

We don’t often see players return from the KBO, NPB or CPBL to sign with big league clubs midseason, but there’s precedent for it happening. There are also quite a few former big leaguers playing down in the Mexican League, creating another area for front offices to scout as they mine for depth options. Interest won’t be limited solely to former big leaguers, either. Back in June, the Mariners signed lefty Brennan Bernardino after a strong nine-start run in Mexico, watched him dominate through 12 2/3 innings in Triple-A Tacoma, and selected him to the Major League roster by the end of July. He made his MLB debut with Seattle on July 31. You never know.

Big Hype Prospects: Hassell, Wood, Marte, Arroyo, Waldichuk

By Brad Johnson | August 5, 2022 at 3:47pm CDT

Today on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll consider the most important prospects dealt at the trade deadline. For a full recap, check out Mark Polishuk’s review of the American League and James Hicks’ rundown of the National League. C.J. Abrams has used up his rookie eligibility, so we’ll skip him.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Robert Hassell, 20, OF, WSH (A+)
346 PA, 10 HR, 20 SB, .299/.379/.467

James Wood, 19, OF, WSH (A)
236 PA, 10 HR, 15 SB, .337/.453/.601

The Nationals said they wanted a mix of Major and Minor League talent in return for Juan Soto, and the Padres obliged. Hassell typically finds his way into conversations about the Top 10 prospects in the league although most list-makers have him ranked around 25th-best. He’s young for his level and could get a taste of Double-A in the waning months of the season. Hassell combines discipline and an advanced feel for contact. He’s a high-probability future big leaguer, but he might not be an especially exciting one. Each promotion will be a test – can he continue to post an over-10 percent walk rate, sub-20 percent strikeout rate, while showing 20 home run power? Trent Grisham – prior to his absentee 2022 season – serves as a loose comp.

By production, Wood has played like a Hassell clone one-year back on the development curve. However, Wood is an absolute mammoth. Most young players of his size either have a sizable strikeout issue, or they’ve sold out for contact. Wood has looked comfortable in Low-A, hitting for power while demonstrating both discipline and a high rate of contact. One can dream on the size, athleticism, and precocious ability. There’s potential for a truly elite player here – one who might eventually justify dealing away Soto. Of course, with all of the challenging levels of the minors awaiting him, Wood is more concept than proven commodity. He should get a late-season trial in High-A.

Noelvi Marte, 20, SS, CIN (A+)
394 PA, 15 HR, 13 SB, .275/.363/.462

Edwin Arroyo, 18, SS, CIN (A)
410 PA, 13 HR, 21 SB, .316/.385/.514

Many analysts believe Marte was the best prospect traded at the deadline (excluding Abrams) while others wondered aloud if the Mariners know something we don’t. You may recall some earlier debate within this column. To summarize, the folks at Baseball America have cooled on Marte, bumping him down to 46 on their midseason Top 100. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Keith Law favors Marte with the 12th rank. FanGraphs lists Marte as one of their 13 60-grade (on the 20/80 scale) prospects. MLB Pipeline has him ranked 17.

On the face of it, Marte was quite a high price to pay for a season-and-a-half of Luis Castillo if the majority opinion turns out to be correct. Especially when considering the Mariners also sent well-regarded 18-year-old Arroyo (more on him below) and a pair of pitching prospects. Even if the more pessimistic Baseball America ranking is accurate, the Reds made out well in this trade.

Baseball America actually has Arroyo ranked one spot behind Marte. Other outlets are less enthusiastic about Arroyo. With Elly De La Cruz ranked in their Top 20, it’s a good time for shortstops in the Cincy system.

Interestingly, Arroyo is a switch-hitter and a switch-thrower. He throws right-handed as a fielder but pitched left-handed in high school. That latter element will only come into play if he has to convert back to the mound in the future, or if he injures his right arm and moves to the outfield. As a hitter, reports indicate Arroyo sells out for power but has a sufficiently compact swing to do so without painful strikeout rates. His swing from the left side has a classic lefty-loop to it. His bat path is flatter from the right side, though he still produces plenty of fly ball contact.

Ken Waldichuk, 24, SP, (AAA)
47.2 IP, 13.22 K/9, 4.34 BB/9, 3.59 ERA

Waldichuk emerged from the lost COVID season to post one of the most effective pitching lines in the minors last season. After he replicated his success early this season, he found himself landing on Top 100 prospect lists. Many premium pitching prospects have excellent stuff but need to learn more about the craft of pitching. Waldichuk, a southpaw, sort of comes from the other perspective. He’s polished and deceptive which allows him to outperform his stuff, although that’s not to knock his repertoire which is both deep and effective. His delivery has a reliever-ish look to it, but he has the weapons to thrive as a mid-tier starter. In particular, he has an excellent slider and changeup, both of which help his mid-90s fastball to play up. Sent to Oakland in the Frankie Montas trade, Waldichuk should get a taste of big league action in the waning months of the season.

Five More

Logan O’Hoppe, PHI (22): O’Hoppe was one of the most glaringly obvious trade chips. The Phillies have no apparent role for a quality catching prospect (though such things can change suddenly). O’Hoppe is well-regarded as both a defensive and offensive catcher who should one day be a league average starter. He’s benefitted from more time at Double-A than he needed in a particularly friendly offensive environment. The discipline and contact skills he showed this season exceeded anything he teased in the past. We’ll see if they withstand a move to the Angels system and subsequent steps up the ladder.

Jordan Groshans, MIA (22): After hitting just one home runs in 279 Triple-A plate appearances, Groshans is trending towards a super utility role. Once a well-regarded prospect, evaluators started grumbling about something missing – impactful power – shortly after he debuted in 2019. He continued to hit well enough for list-makers to conservatively continue including him in the Top 100, but that’s evaporated as he’s reached the upper levels of the minors.

Seth Johnson, BAL (23): A promising pitcher from the Rays system, Johnson will miss the remainder of this season and most of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He’s an interesting case for the Orioles. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible this winter, can be stashed on the injured list, and might hold his own in the bullpen when he returns in 2024. Will the Orioles roster him or try to pass him through the Rule 5 gauntlet?

Esteury Ruiz, MIL (23): Presumably, the Brewers acquired Ruiz to help complement Tyrone Taylor in center field. Taylor has played near replacement level, and Ruiz has impactful skills which could help win ball games. For now, he’ll build upon his legend in the minors. He has 60 steals in 379 minor league plate appearances. His 27 plate appearances in the Majors yielded little – a .222/.222/.333 line and one steal in three attempts.

Spencer Steer, CIN, (24): While not exactly a top prospect, Steer will soon grace a Major League roster and could lay claim to a regular role. He has a short, impactful swing and enough discipline to hold his head above water. Great American Ballpark is the ideal venue for him. He doesn’t have big raw power but hits a ton of fly balls. He might wind up as Eugenio Suarez redux.

Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Miller, Dominguez, Cowser, Wiemer

By Brad Johnson | July 29, 2022 at 4:15pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507

The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.

Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.

Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA

Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.

If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.

Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500

Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.

Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689

Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.

Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446

Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.

As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.

Five More

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.

Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.

Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.

Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.

Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.

2022 Top 60 Trade Candidates: Late July Edition

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 2:14pm CDT

With just four days until the August 2 trade deadline, we’re approaching the opening of the floodgates of activity. The first major domino of deadline season fell Wednesday night, when the Royals shipped Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees for a trio of pitching prospects. With that in mind, it’s time for an updated look at the players who could find themselves on the move.

As always, this list is loosely ordered in terms of both likelihood of being traded and value to an acquiring club. Rental players are inherently going to carry less long-term value but are generally likelier to be moved by virtue of their impending free agency. There’s an inherent subjectivity in striking that balance.

Benintendi was our No. 2 trade candidate when we did the first iteration of this list in early July. While many of the players on that list are still likely to switch uniforms, plenty of previously unexpected trade candidates have popped up in the meantime. That leads to a change at the top of the list, with no one else dominating headlines quite like a 23-year-old superstar who’s now on the market.

1. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals

Soto turned down the Nationals latest extension offer, a proposed 15-year, $440MM pact. That at least halted, if not entirely ended, discussions about a potential long-term deal. Washington has been the worst team in the National League without a clear path back to respectability next season. If the front office believes they’re without a clear path to extending Soto, there’s a strong case for dealing him rather than watching him play out much of his remaining arbitration eligibility on bad teams.

None of that is to say the Nationals have to or will trade Soto in the next few days. There’d be almost as much demand for two years of a player of his caliber next offseason. An acquiring team would lose out on a chance to have Soto for a playoff push this summer if the Nationals hang onto him, but waiting until the offseason allows the front office more time to evaluate young players and/or prospects of interest. It’d also open up the number of players available, as 2022 draftees are ineligible to be dealt until after this season (even as players to be named later).

Soto’s trade candidacy is virtually unparalleled in recent memory. He’s won two Silver Sluggers, appeared in two All-Star games and been a key contributor on a World Series winner before turning 24. He’s a career .291/.426/.538 hitter (all stats referenced through play July 27). Even in a bit of a “down” 2022 season by his incredible standard, Soto has the fifth-highest on-base percentage among qualifiers (.400) and has slugged 20 home runs. Even with a $17.1MM salary that’ll see massive jumps in each of his final two seasons of arbitration-eligibility, he’s an absolute financial bargain. Soto’s arguably the best hitter on the planet, and the Nationals would only move him for a haul of controllable talent unlike one we’ve seen in years.

2. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs

While Soto’s a relatively new entrant into legitimate trade rumors, Contreras has looked a lock to go for months. The Cubs and his representatives reportedly haven’t had any extension talks. He’s an impending free agent having a career year on a non-competitive team, carrying a .258/.373/.470 line. An acquiring team could eye Contreras either as an upgrade over their #1 catcher, or as a bat-first player capable of rotating between catcher, first base and designated hitter. He’s making $9.625MM in his final year before free agency.

3. Josh Bell, 1B, Nationals

Bell also falls in the ’rental bat on a non-playoff team’ category. He’s a switch-hitter with far better bat-to-ball skills than most players with his level of power. Bell’s strikeout rate sits at a career-low 13.5%, and he owns a .302/.387/.490 line in what has been arguably the best season of his career. As with Contreras, he’s sure to be the big offensive upgrade for some contender in the next few days. Bell is playing on a $10MM salary.

4. Luis Castillo, SP, Reds

5. Frankie Montas, SP, A’s

6. Tyler Mahle, SP, Reds

This trio has been linked for virtually all of deadline season, with good reason. They’re each on teams that slashed payroll over the winter and have fallen into last place in their divisions. They’re arbitration-eligible through 2023. All three have missed some time with shoulder issues on the year, but they’re each healthy now. Most importantly, they’re all very good, at least upper mid-rotation caliber hurlers. They’re the most likely marquee starters to actually change hands.

Castillo owns a sparkling 2.86 ERA with above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates through 14 starts. He’s consistently been one of the game’s top pitchers in recent seasons, and he’s at peak form heading into the deadline. Going back to June 1, he owns a 2.62 ERA while holding opponents to a .203/.281/.318 line. Montas has an ERA of 3.37 or lower in three of the past four seasons, including a 3.18 mark in 104 2/3 frames this year. Like Castillo, he throws hard, misses bats, gets grounders and generally pounds the strike zone.

Mahle has the spottiest control of the three, but he has every bit their strikeout prowess. He’s been dramatically better on the road than at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly ballpark, so it’s easy enough to project him being a little more consistent in a friendlier environment. Mahle had a rough start to the season, but he owns a 3.22 ERA since the beginning of June.

7. Ian Happ, LF, Cubs

Happ is making contact at a career-best rate, and it’s translated to arguably the best season of his career (.282/.366/.446). He’s a well-rounded player — a switch-hitter with power, plate discipline and this season’s decent bat-to-ball skills. Happ’s probably limited to left field, but he’s a capable defender there. He’s making $6.85MM and arbitration-eligible through next season, so a trade isn’t a foregone conclusion the way it is with Contreras, but it’s probably the best opportunity for the Cubs to maximize the value of a return.

8. J.D. Martinez, DH, Red Sox

The Red Sox find themselves with an uncertain direction as they near the deadline. They’re 3 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race, with two additional teams between them and the final playoff spot. They have a -14 run differential on the season and a 7-17 record this month. That could point towards moving some shorter-term players, but they’re only a year removed from an ALCS appearance and it’s fair to chalk up some of their recent struggles to injury.

If the Red Sox do seriously consider offers on their impending free agents, Martinez would be perhaps the top hitter (non-Soto division) available. He’s no longer the 40-plus home run bat he was during his first couple seasons in Boston, but he owns a .295/.363/.471 line. He’s still a middle-of-the-order fixture who’d draw plenty of interest from clubs looking to add offense, even due what remains of a $19.375MM salary. Nearing age 35, Martinez would be a borderline qualifying offer candidate next winter if the Red Sox hold him.

9. Brandon Drury, INF, Reds

An offseason minor league signee, Drury has been an excellent find for the Reds. He’s hitting .268/.329/.512 with 19 homers while playing all around the infield, primarily at second/third base. An impending free agent, he’s emerged as the most interesting of the Reds rental trade chips. Paired with a thin infield market this summer, Drury should be an appealing target for a number of teams.

10. David Robertson, RP, Cubs

Robertson is probably the top target for clubs looking for short-term bullpen help. The veteran reliever has a 1.83 ERA through 39 1/3 innings with the Cubs, striking out 31.4% of batters faced. He’s issuing a few more walks than one would like, but he’s missing bats, handling hitters from both sides of the plate and has a salary that’s likely to wind up in the $5MM range. Robertson has plenty of late-game experience over his career, so a contender should feel good about plugging right into high-leverage spots in a pennant race.

11. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Angels

Syndergaard might wind up being the best rental starter to move this summer. The Angels have fallen out of the race, and Syndergaard would be ineligible for a qualifying offer as a free agent after receiving one from the Mets last year. He’s not throwing as hard or missing as many bats as he did during his peak days in Queens, but he’s pounding the strike zone and generally keeping the Halos in games. He owns a 3.83 ERA through 80 innings and looks like a possible mid-rotation target for contenders, although his $21MM salary is hefty enough it could deter teams with tight budgetary limits unless the Angels pay down some money.

12. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox

The same dilemma the Red Sox are facing with Martinez applies to Eovaldi, who’ll be a free agent at the end of the year himself. The righty’s 4.32 ERA/4.59 FIP through 81 1/3 innings aren’t eye-catching, but that’s largely attributable to one horrible start where he gave up five home runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Astros. His strikeout rate is roughly league average, he’s one of the sport’s best control arms, and he’s inducing a fair number of ground-balls. Eovaldi probably isn’t much changed from last year’s 182 1/3 inning, 3.75 ERA form. He’s playing this year on a $17MM salary and would probably receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Red Sox keep him through the end of the season.

13. Jose Quintana, SP, Pirates

14. Drew Smyly, SP, Cubs

Quintana and Smyly are each having decent seasons as impending free agents on non-contenders. They’ll be viewed as possible 5th/6th starter options for a better team. Both southpaws have lower than average walk rates and an ERA below 4.00 despite below-average strikeout rates. Quintana, who’s playing this season on a $2MM salary, is also affordable enough to appeal to virtually every club. Smyly’s a bit costlier, making $4.25MM with a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for next season, but he’s also likely to wind up on the move.

15. Michael Fulmer, RP, Tigers

16. Mychal Givens, RP, Cubs

17. Andrew Chafin, RP, Tigers

18. Matt Moore, RP, Rangers

19. Chris Martin, RP, Cubs

A host of potential impending free agents (Chafin’s contract contains a $6.5MM player option for next season), this quintet fits the middle relief/setup archetype of which contenders are in need each deadline season. Chafin and Moore are left-handers; Fulmer, Givens and Martin throw from the right side. Moore’s missing plenty of bats during his first year after converting from the rotation to the bullpen. Chafin and Martin have excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Fulmer and Givens each have elevated walk rates but an ERA below 3.00.

20. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals

Merrifield has been a fixture on these kinds of lists for years, and it seems the Royals are more willing than ever to deal him. It’s not a great time to do so, as he has a mediocre .242/.293/.347 line on the season. Yet Merrifield has a long track record as a prototypical leadoff type, and he’s still making plenty of contact. Capable of playing second base and right field, he’s at least an appealing utility piece for a contender. Merrifield is making $7MM this year and under contract for $6.75MM next season.

21. Carlos Rodon, SP, Giants

The Giants are, in some respects, the NL analogue to the Red Sox. Fresh off a 107-win campaign, they’d certainly anticipated heading into deadline season as buyers. For a while, it seemed as if they would, but they’ve lost seven straight games to fall two games under .500. San Francisco has a positive run differential and a clearer path back to the postseason than Boston — they’re 3 1/2 out of the final playoff spot with only one team in between — but they have to give serious thought to moving some players, particularly if they fall further back over the weekend.

Rodon is likely headed for free agency after the season, having recently reached the innings threshold necessary to trigger the opt-out clause in his contract. There’d be no shortage of suitors for a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA and a 31.4% strikeout rate, his second straight year with top-of-the-rotation production. Rodon would have plenty of appeal; it’s just a question of the Giants’ willingness to move him, which would more or less require conceding the unlikelihood of a playoff berth in 2022. They’re reportedly not yet at that point.

22. Joc Pederson, LF, Giants

23. Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, Giants

If the Giants do go that route, there’d be little reason not to follow through by looking for suitors on Pederson and Flores. They’re each impending free agents who’d draw plenty of interest. Pederson is playing on a $6MM contract; Flores is making just $3.5MM. The former is a platoon corner outfielder, but he’s popped 17 homers and carries a .244/.319/.496 line on the season. Plenty of teams could use a left-handed hitting outfielder with that kind of production. Flores has some infield flexibility and a history of hitting left-handed pitching very well. He owns a .245/.326/.437 overall mark on the year.

24. Trey Mancini, 1B, Orioles

The Orioles have kept right around the Wild Card mix, entering play Friday three games back. That progress seems like it’ll dissuade the front office from trading away controllable building blocks like Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. Still, actually reaching the playoffs this year seems unlikely, and Mancini is headed for free agency with just a mutual option remaining on his deal. The O’s wouldn’t get an enormous return, since Mancini has slumped of late and is down to a fine but not overwhelming .268/.345/.401 season line. The club might just deem it better to hold Mancini, a beloved clubhouse and community presence, for the stretch run. He’s playing the year on a $7.5MM salary, plus a $250K buyout of next year’s option.

25. Donovan Solano, 2B/3B, Reds

26. David Peralta, OF, D-Backs

27. Ben Gamel, OF, Pirates

28. Tommy Pham, OF, Reds

A collection of solid rental bats on non-contenders, there’s a good chance for all four of Solano, Peralta, Gamel, and Pham to be dealt. Solano offers the most defensive value of the group, as he’s capable of playing second or third base. The other three are strictly corner outfielders. Solano has missed much of the year to injury but mashed in 27 games since returning. Gamel and Peralta are all solid left-handed bats who could shoulder the larger side of a platoon. Pham’s a right-handed hitter with excellent plate discipline and a capable contact/power combination.

29. Sean Murphy, C, A’s

30. Ramon Laureano, CF, A’s

The A’s sell-off has been well-chronicled. Aside from Montas, Murphy and Laureano are their two most valuable trade chips. They’re each quality defenders at up-the-middle positions (Murphy at catcher, Laureano in center field), and both have slightly above-average offensive numbers. With both arbitration-eligible through the end of the 2025 season, Oakland doesn’t have to force a deal on either player. Murphy could be the likelier to go, since the A’s have top catching prospect Shea Langeliers playing well in Triple-A.

31. Nelson Cruz, DH, Nationals

Cruz has looked like a midseason trade candidate from virtually the moment he signed with the Nationals last offseason. Washington would certainly listen, but the 42-year-old slugger looks as if he’s finally tailed off. He’s hitting only .231/.317/.347, and he carries a .229/.304/.385 line going back to last year’s trade from the Twins to the Rays. That’s not appealing output from a player with no defensive value, particularly one playing this season on a $15MM salary. Still, Cruz’s long-term track record and high regard as a clubhouse presence could get him a shot with a contender, particularly if the Nats are willing to kick in some money to facilitate a deal.

32. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals

33. Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers

34. Joe Mantiply, RP, Diamondbacks

35. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals

36. Anthony Bass, RP, Marlins

37. Gregory Soto, RP, Tigers

Everyone in this group is controllable beyond this season, and some of them will surely stick with their current clubs past the deadline. Yet they’re all good but not elite late-game arms on teams unlikely to make the postseason in 2022. It’s easy enough to envision their teams selling relatively high on anyone in this tier, with Barlow and Jimenez probably the likeliest to move.

38. Christian Vazquez, C, Red Sox

Aside from Contreras, Vazquez could wind up being the top rental catcher on the block. As with Martinez and Eovaldi, whether he moves will depend on the approach the Boston front office takes to their recent skid. Owner of a .281/.326/.432 season line with a strong defensive reputation, Vazquez would be an appealing target for teams searching for catching help. He’s playing out the final year of his deal on a $7MM salary.

39. Dominic Smith, DH, Mets

40. J.D. Davis, DH, Mets

There’s been plenty of speculation about the Mets moving one of Smith or Davis, neither of whom is hitting at the level the Mets have wanted out of the DH position. New York’s acquisitions of Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin have been the firmest indication at least one of Smith or Davis was likely to move. Smith, as a left-handed hitter, seems most displaced by the Vogelbach pickup, but the Mets reportedly remain on the hunt for further offensive upgrades. If they land another bat, perhaps both Smith and Davis could be dealt. Both hitters are arbitration-eligible through 2024.

41. Joey Gallo, OF, Yankees

42. Miguel Andujar, 3B/OF, Yankees

On the topic of struggling New York players probably displaced by a trade pickup, the Yankees would seem to be particularly motivated to move Gallo after the Benintendi deal. The blockbuster acquisition of last summer’s deadline hasn’t panned out, with Gallo hitting at just a .160/.293/.371 level in pinstripes. At his best, he’s a prodigious power bat with strong baserunning and defense, but he’s looked lost at the plate for virtually a calendar year. It may be tough for New York to find a taker. Gallo, who’s making $10.275MM, is in his final year of arbitration-eligibility. His recent struggles mean he’s not a great solution for a contender looking for an immediate corner outfield upgrade. Yet his impending free agency reduces the interest of a buy-low for a non-competitive club, with no long-term contractual control if he does turn things around in a new setting.

Andujar, meanwhile, is reportedly being shopped by the Yankees. The former AL Rookie of the Year runner-up hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity in the Bronx since shoulder surgery wiped out his 2019 season, but he’s expanded his defensive profile by learning left field and first base, and he continues to rake in the minors. Andujar requested a trade earlier this summer, and given his Triple-A production it seems likely that a club with some available corner playing time will give him a real look.

43. Pablo Lopez, SP, Marlins

44. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers

45. Zach Plesac, SP, Guardians

46. Jose Urquidy, SP, Astros

Reports this week have suggested the clubs for all four of these hurlers are open to offers. That’s not to say any of them is especially likely to go. Lopez is controllable through 2024, Plesac and Urquidy through 2025, Skubal through ’26. The Guardians and Astros are in the thick of the playoff race. The Marlins and Tigers are not, but they’re also going to try to compete next season. It seems more likely than not that each of these pitchers remains with their club beyond next Tuesday, but each team has valid reasons for listening.

The Astros and Marlins each have an enviable collection of rotation depth and could view dealing a controllable starter as the best way to land some offensive help. The Guardians have a strong pitching development pipeline and a solid number of upper minors young arms. The Tigers rotation has been decimated by injury this year, but Skubal’s amidst a breakout season on a team that’s 19 games under .500.

47. Martin Perez, SP, Rangers

48. Chad Kuhl, SP, Rockies

49. Daniel Bard, RP, Rockies

Perez, Kuhl and Bard are impending free agents on 2022 non-contenders. They’re fairly straightforward trade candidates amidst decent seasons, but they seem less likely than the rentals above them on the list to change hands. The Rangers and Perez have expressed mutual interest in a contract extension. The Rockies seem to hope for the same with Kuhl and Bard, and Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against the possibility of a major sell-off. The Rox held onto a few notable impending free agents despite having little chance of making the playoffs last summer, and they could well do so again.

50. Garrett Cooper, 1B, Marlins

The generally underrated Cooper earned an All-Star nod this season with a .279/.347/.426 showing. He’s a consistently productive right-handed hitter, and he’s playing this season on an affordable $2.5MM salary. Cooper landed on the injured list earlier this week, but he’s expressed confidence about returning when first eligible next Wednesday. He could still draw some interest, but with an additional season of arbitration eligibility, the Marlins don’t have to make a deal.

51. Blake Snell, SP, Padres

The Padres luxury tax dilemma has been covered a few times on MLBTR’s pages. The Friars have virtually no financial breathing room for midseason additions if they don’t want to exceed the $230MM base tax threshold. Dealing from their rotation surplus to free some money for upgrades elsewhere on the roster has looked like a possibility for a while. Snell, who has a 4.75 ERA and a $10MM CBT hit for the Friars, looks like the likeliest option for that kind of move. He’s under contract for next season and still striking out plenty of batters, but his overall performance in San Diego has been a bit disappointing.

52. Brad Keller, SP, Royals

Keller’s a stable back-of-the-rotation arm. He owns a 4.04 career ERA and a 4.18 mark this season while generally working as a source of about league average innings. Keller doesn’t miss bats, but he’s posted a ground-ball rate north of 50% in four of his five MLB seasons. He could appeal to a rotation-needy team with a strong defensive infield. Keller’s making $4.825MM and arbitration-eligible once more.

53. Michael A. Taylor, CF, Royals

Taylor has been one of the sport’s best defensive outfielders throughout his career. He’s never consistently produced enough at the plate to be more than a soft regular, with swing-and-miss issues his primary undoing. Taylor has dramatically cut his strikeout rate to 22.9% this season (right around league average), and his .279/.350/.402 line is a career best. Defensive metrics have been more mixed on his work than they’ve been in years past, but most clubs are still likely to view him as a plus defender. He’s making $4.5MM both this year and next, and a thin center field market could lead K.C. to sell high.

54. Lou Trivino, RP, A’s

Trivino’s ERA is ghastly, checking in a hair below 7.00. The right-hander has a strong 27.9% strikeout rate and a hefty 52.7% grounder rate, though, and today’s front offices will be willing to look deeper than the ugly run prevention mark. Trivino has had plenty of success keeping runs off the board in years past, and he’s spent some time as Oakland’s closer. Clubs will surely expect the .456 batting average on balls in play against him to come down, and he could still draw attention from teams looking for middle innings help. Trivino is making $3MM and arbitration-eligible through 2024, but the A’s are certainly willing to listen given their competitive window.

55. Jose Iglesias, SS, Rockies

Iglesias has had a decent bounceback year after signing a $5MM contract with the Rockies in Spring Training. He’s no longer the plus defender he was at his peak, but he’s continued to play shortstop in Colorado and could probably bounce all around the infield for a contender. Iglesias is a high-contact bat who would fit well in a utility role. He’s an impending free agent.

56. Rafael Ortega, CF, Cubs

Ortega is a journeyman outfielder who has played fairly well since getting a look with the Cubs last summer. He’s a .267/.346/.419 hitter in about a full season’s worth of playing time over the last two years. Ortega’s not a great defender in center field but he can moonlight there, and the thin market at the position could make him a fallback target for clubs looking to bolster the outfield depth. He’s not yet arbitration eligible (although he’s likely to get there this offseason as a Super Two player), but the Cubs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild since he’s already 31.

57. Christian Walker, 1B, D-Backs

The D-Backs are reportedly open to offers on Walker, although the extent of their urgency to move him is unclear. He’s controllable for two and a half seasons but already 31. Walker has been a slightly above-average hitter in three of the past four years. He has plenty of power, posts big exit velocities and crushes left-handed pitching. He’s also a low-OBP slugger who is limited to first base — although he rates excellently at the position.

58. Michael Wacha, SP, Red Sox

59. Rich Hill, SP, Red Sox

Wacha and Hill are each impending free agents who could move if the Red Sox sell some short-term pieces. They’re each having decent seasons. Wacha is carrying a 2.69 ERA through 13 starts; Hill, as he has for the past couple seasons, has been right around league average. They’d each be higher on this list were they not on the injured list at the moment — Wacha due to shoulder inflammation, Hill with a knee sprain. Hill began a rehab assignment on Thursday, and Wacha doesn’t seem far behind. Despite the injuries, they could still attract some interest as they near returns from the IL.

60. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels

Insert the old adage about saving the best for last here. The Angels have reportedly at least listened to offers on Ohtani, the reigning MVP who has captivated baseball’s global fanbase with his dominance as a hitter and pitcher alike. As with Soto, it would take an overwhelming haul of prospects in order for Ohtani to actually be traded. Unlike Soto, Ohtani feels quite unlikely to be moved — hence his back-of-the-list ranking — but teams will still try.

Ohtani, 28, is earning just $5.5MM this season and will receive a sizable raise on that number in arbitration this winter. He can be a free agent following the 2023 season. Given the team’s futility during the Ohtani/Mike Trout era and Ohtani’s outspoken desire to play for a contender, it’s fair to wonder whether the Angels have a realistic chance of extending him. Asked by The Athletic’s Sam Blum just last night about his desire to stay with the Angels long-term, Ohtani side-stepped the heart of the question and concluded his reply by stating: “…Right now, I’m an Angel, and that’s all I can really focus on at this point.”

Would a team part with its top four or five prospects to add Ohtani for the next two pennant pushes? Would Angels owner Arte Moreno actually green-light the deal even if a trade partner were willing to do so? A trade seems so hard to imagine and, at the same time, perfectly logical and defensible for an Angels team with an awful farm system, crowded payroll and dwindling control over the 2021 AL MVP. He’s going to be extremely hard to pry away, but that won’t stop teams from trying.

Potential Salary Dumps of Note

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres: $20.625MM salary in 2022, $13.625MM salaries from 2023-25
Wil Myers, OF, Padres: $22.5MM salary in 2022, $20MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2023
Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals: $23.42MM salary in 2022, due approximately $59.8MM between 2023-24
Madison Bumgarner, SP, D-Backs: $23MM salaries in 2022-23, $14MM salary in 2025

Controllable Impact Players Unlikely To Move

Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar (Pirates)
Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Lopez (Orioles)
Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia (Astros)
Shane Bieber (Guardians)

Others of Note

Orioles: Anthony Santander, Jordan Lyles

Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez*, Matt Strahm*, Hirokazu Sawamura

Royals: Zack Greinke, Josh Staumont, Hunter Dozier

Tigers: Tucker Barnhart, Alex Lange, Robbie Grossman, Jeimer Candelario, Michael Pineda*

Guardians: Aaron Civale, Amed Rosario

Angels: Aaron Loup, Michael Lorenzen*

Astros: Jose Siri

Athletics: Paul Blackburn, Sam Moll, Elvis Andrus, Chad Pinder

Rangers: Garrett Richards, Kole Calhoun, Brett Martin

Marlins: Joey Wendle, Jon Berti*, Brian Anderson*, Steven Okert, Dylan Floro, Tanner Scott, Jesus Aguilar, Elieser Hernandez

Nationals: Carl Edwards Jr., Yadiel Hernandez, Steve Cishek

Brewers: Kolten Wong, Jace Peterson, Pedro Severino

Cubs: Patrick Wisdom, Wade Miley*, Scott Effross

Reds: Kyle Farmer, Mike Minor, Jeff Hoffman

Pirates: JT Brubaker

Cardinals: Edmundo Sosa

Padres: Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet

Giants: Brandon Belt, Dominic Leone, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski

Rockies: Alex Colome, C.J. Cron, Carlos Estevez

D-Backs: Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Jake McCarthy, Jordan Luplow

*Denotes player currently on the injured list

Big Hype Prospects: Juan Soto Edition

By Brad Johnson | July 22, 2022 at 1:27pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a peek at some players who could find themselves shipped to the Nationals in the next 12 days. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, seven teams are currently in the mix for Juan Soto, although a surprise or three are liable to check in on this once-in-a-decade opportunity.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Diego Cartaya, 20, C, LAD (A+)
(A): 163 PA, 9 HR, .260/.405/.550
(A+): 137 PA, 5 HR, .288/.423/.514

Seemingly everybody who goes to watch Cartaya comes away impressed by the precocious catcher. If there’s a flaw in his game, it’s that he’s already embraced an extreme approach as a hitter. His combination of 50 percent fly balls, 50 percent pulled contact, and near-30 percent strikeout rate mark him as a classic slugger. He’s on a 30-homer pace this season – a rarity both for players this young and for catching prospects. He even draws praise as a defender, especially for his arm.

Prior to the lost COVID year, Cartaya had a reputation for aggression. Since then, he’s averaged a 13 percent walk rate in 437 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the more discerning approach is also why his strikeout rate has spiked. There’s wiggle room for more adjustments related to his swing decisions.

The Nationals already have one former Dodger catching prospect in their lineup (Keibert Ruiz). Even so, Cartaya almost certainly would be included in a Soto trade. As a centerpiece, he might have less heft than others we discuss today. We’ve known for over a decade that a pitching prospect is considerably less valuable than an equally skilled positional prospect. That mostly comes down to attrition associated with pitching. Catchers lurk between pitchers and the other positions – various flavors of attrition can play spoiler to an otherwise great prospect.

Additional notable Dodgers prospects include Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553
(AAA) 34 PA, .087/.324/.130

If Cartaya is precocious, then I’m not sure we have a word for Alvarez. He’s two months younger than Cartaya and outperformed the Dodger prospect while playing in Double-A. Although it hasn’t gone swimmingly (yet), signs point to improvement ahead. For one, his .125 BABIP and .043 ISO will normalize. Alvarez is arguably the top prospect in the minors.

While the Steve Cohen Mets have shown no qualms with expending resources, their farm system is thin. Moreover, acquiring Soto would ensure they surpass the fourth luxury tax tier. The 80 percent tax rate associated with payrolls over $290MM has already been dubbed the “Cohen Tax.” Many observers believe Patrick Corbin will need to be absorbed as well. Whether or not the Mets are willing to take on these extra expenditures, it’s unclear the Nationals would risk losing another elite outfielder to a division rival.

The Mets next-best prospects are Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Alex Ramirez. Mark Vientos could have modest appeal for his proximity to the Majors.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, (AA)
348 PA, 12 HR, 35 SB, .253/.351/.461

Volpe had a chilly start to his 2022 campaign. Since mid-May, he’s batting .303/.386/.541 with 9.0 percent walk and 14.8 percent strikeout rates. He’s been ready for promotion for weeks if not longer. That he remains in Double-A could reflect the Yankees willingness to trade him at the deadline. As the top true shortstop prospect, he’d go a long way towards landing Soto.

The Yankees know the appeal of generational talents to their fan base, but they also know the value of a good, homegrown shortstop. Volpe has all the makings of a future All-Star. The presence of Oswald Peraza – also a well-regarded shortstop prospect – means the Yankees can probably hang onto a middle infielder for their 2023 campaign. They can attempt to tempt the Nationals with the likes of Jasson Dominguez, Alexander Vargas, and a brace of Major League-adjacent pitchers like Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Deivi Garcia, and Luis Gil among others.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
329 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .304/.392/.486

Like Volpe, Walker has seemingly overstayed his welcome in Double-A and could be hanging out for trade reasons. The Cardinals have sufficient infield depth to consider Walker expendable. As we discussed in this column last week, his prodigious power is somewhat wasted on a grounder-oriented batted ball profile. That same approach has helped him to hit for a high average despite plenty of swing-and-miss.

St. Louis is stocked with a deep system of future contributors even if scouting reports aren’t always enthusiastic. Juan Yepez would match the Nationals desire for a Major League return, and he’s a somewhat awkward fit on the current Cardinals roster. Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Masyn Winn are just a few of the others who might appeal to Washington. They’ll need to offer a lot of quantity to secure a Soto trade.

Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
164 PA, 8 HR, .288/.360/.507

Luciano is currently sidelined with a back injury. Prior to landing on the shelf in early-June, he’d shown considerable improvement in his second exposure to High-A. Not only was he hitting for power again, he also rediscovered his previously adequate plate discipline. Luciano is expected to slide down the defensive spectrum, but there’s still a chance he might stick as a bat-first shortstop.

The Giants system features a few tantalizing talents, but they’re mostly in the low minors. In addition to Luciano and Luis Matos (see below), San Francisco could entice with Kyle Harrison, Patrick Bailey, or Heliot Ramos. Unlike some other suitors, they’d need to spend most of their best prospect capital to consummate a deal.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21) and Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): The Orioles might not be everyone’s favorites to land Soto, but their combination of top farm system, nonexistent future commitments, and pivot back to relevancemake them the perfect match – if they’re mentally prepared to make a bold move. Henderson and Rodriguez are now widely-regarded as Top 5 prospects. Baltimore has another dozen prospects who look like future big-league contributors. Henderson has run into some strikeout issues upon promotion to Triple-A. Rodriguez is currently recovering from a lat injury. He was on the cusp of making his Major League debut when he suffered the injury.

Luis Matos, SFG (20): Matos has struggled in High-A this season. His scouting grades point to a bright future. However, unlike many top prospects in this era, his prospect ranking is built upon projection on his frame and tools rather than on-field results. The Nationals have the wherewithal to be picky when dealing Soto. Matos’ inclusion will depend on what their scouts say.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): With Julio Rodriguez untouchable – even in a Soto trade – Marte is the Mariners next-best bullet. Since late-June, he’s batting an incredible .390/.478/.729 with as many walks as strikeouts. Seattle can prime the pump with Jarred Kelenic, George Kirby, Matt Brash, Harry Ford, and/or Emerson Hancock.

Robert Hassell, SDP (20): The biggest barrier for the Padres is their long-term finances. They certainly have the prospects to get a deal done including a number of MLB-ready players. Hassell looks like a plausible centerpiece, a player who could join the Majors in late-2023. He’s currently thriving in High-A. If the Padres prefer not to part with C.J. Abrams, Luis Campusano, or MacKenzie Gore – all of whom have big league experience and are well-regarded – then they could offer toolsy youngsters like James Wood and Jackson Merrill. Eguy Rosario and Esteury Ruiz should be appealing too.

The Cubs Should Think About Selling High On Patrick Wisdom

By Darragh McDonald | July 21, 2022 at 5:56pm CDT

With a record of 35-57, the Cubs are 14 1/2 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central and 14 games out of a Wild Card spot. That makes them one of the more clearcut sellers at this year’s trade deadline.

Naturally, there were a number of Cubs featured on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates, with Willson Contreras, David Robertson, Mychal Givens and Ian Happ all making the cut. Contreras and Robertson are both hitting the open market at year’s end, with Givens almost certainly joining them. He has a mutual option for 2023 but those are almost never picked up by both sides. That makes them all logical trade candidates. Happ has an extra year of control but still makes sense to be on the block, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored. Taking players with limited control and turning them into prospects that can help in the long term is the standard playbook for losing teams.

They also have another player who could make sense as a trade chip, though for different reasons. Third baseman Patrick Wisdom is not nearing free agency. He came into this season with one year and 58 days of MLB service time, meaning he should finish this season at 2.058. He won’t even qualify for arbitration until after 2023 and is set to become a free agent after the 2026 campaign. The Cubs will almost certainly get out of this rebuild and return to contention at some point in that window, though Wisdom could still make sense to move given his unusual journey.

Wisdom was selected over a decade ago, when the Cardinals used the 52nd overall pick on him in the 2012 draft. He got a taste of affiliated ball that year, playing in Low-A, faring well enough to be ranked the 11th best Cardinals prospect in 2013 by Baseball America. However, he struggled as he climbed the minor league ladder and eventually fell off that list.

Wisdom always had power, but also strikeouts and low batting averages. In 2014, he got his first taste of Double-A, hitting 14 home runs but striking out 29.9% of the time, with a .215/.277/.367 line and wRC+ of 83. He repeated the level in 2015 and had fairly similar results. Going up to Triple-A in 2016, he missed time with injuries and only played 78 games, producing tepid results when on the field. 2017, his second shot at Triple-A, he showed some promise, hitting 31 homers and batting .243/.310/.507. He struck out 29.4% of the time but was still a bit above average, with a wRC+ of 105. He got a third stint with the Memphis Redbirds in 2018, reducing his striking rate a bit to 26.6% and increasing his batting average to .288.

That was enough to get him a call-up to the big leagues, where he fared very well. He hit four home runs in 32 games and slashed .260/.362/.520. Jumping to major league pitching made his strikeout rate tick up even higher, coming in at 32.8%, though he still produced a 142 wRC+ in his debut.

Blocked for playing time in St. Louis, the Cardinals traded him to the Rangers prior to the 2019 campaign. The new jersey didn’t help Wisdom, though, as he struggled badly as a Ranger. They only let him play nine games at the big league level, where he struck out in over half of plate appearances. Spending most of his time in Triple-A, he hit 31 home runs for the Nashville Sounds but struck out 27.6% of the time and hit .240/.332/.513 for a wRC+ of 97. Reaching free agency, he signed with the Mariners in 2020 but they designated for assignment before he appeared in a game with them. He then signed with the Cubs, appearing in just two games for them that season. He was designated for assignment again at the end of the year.

Then came 2021, which would prove to be a tremendous breakout for Wisdom. Re-signing with the Cubs on a minor league deal, he began the year in Triple-A. Injuries opened a roster spot for him in May, and the Cubs eventually underwent a massive deadline selloff, trading away Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. That opened up at-bats for Wisdom, who made the best of them. He would go on to hit 28 home runs and 13 doubles in 106 games, slashing .231/.305/.518. He still struck out a lot, even more than usual, in fact. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances last year, his 40.8% rate was the easily the highest, more than five points higher than the next guy on the list, Mike Zunino at 35.2%.

Wisdom has seemingly always had the same formula and this year is no exception. He’s hit 17 home runs and 18 doubles, slashing .220/.316/.441. Despite the low batting average, he provides enough power to be above average, as evidenced by his 111 wRC+. He’s improved his strikeout rate to 34.5%, though that’s still well above the league average mark of 22.3% and third in the league among qualified hitters.

Through all of those twists and turns and despite his flaws, Wisdom has turned himself into a productive big leaguer. He produced 2.2 wins above replacement last year, according to FanGraphs, and has racked up another 1.1 already this year. But due to the prolonged nature of his development, he is now 30 years old and turns 31 in August. Though the Cubs could conceivably have a very aggressive winter and get back into contention next year, it becomes more probable in 2024 and 2025, seasons in which Wisdom will celebrate his 33rd and 34th birthdays.

It’s entirely possible that Wisdom is still mashing dingers in those years, but rebuilding teams generally prefer to open a competitive window with players who are just entering their prime years and will remain productive core pieces for five, six, seven years into the future. Given his age, Wisdom would be a better fit on a win-now club. Getting Wisdom out of the way could also allow the Cubs to move Christopher Morel back to the dirt. An infielder throughout most of his minor league career, he’s hitting very well in his rookie season despite being pushed into more outfield work. He has -5 Outs Above Average on the grass this year, a -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -3.3 Ultimate Zone Rating.

There’s also the fact that Wisdom’s high-strikeout approach comes with volatility. Players that strike out at these incredible rates are prone to swoons in performance. Looking at last year’s highest strikeout rates among qualified hitters, you get Joey Gallo, Miguel Sano, Javier Baez, Matt Chapman, Adam Duvall and Tyler O’Neill. Other than Chapman, all of those guys are having disappointing seasons compared to last year, and Chapman’s is still disappointing compared to some of his previous seasons. Gallo had a 123 wRC+ last year but 85 this year, Sano went from 110 to 19, Baez from 116 to 74, Chapman from 101 to 102 (but was higher in the four previous season), Duvall from 103 to 87 and O’Neill from 144 to 87. In the case of Sano and O’Neill, injuries are playing a big factor, but it still demonstrates the unsustainability of this style of hitting.

For the Cubs, perhaps they should try to cash in the Wisdom chip before it cracks. There haven’t been any public rumors mentioning Wisdom, but there are a few fits that make sense. He largely plays third base but has also lined up at first base and the outfield.

The Mets are using Eduardo Escobar at third most of the time, who’s hitting just .224/.279/.397 on the year for a 94 wRC+. They’re also known to be looking for another bat to supplant Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis in the bench/DH mix. Wisdom could perhaps be viewed as a better version of Davis, who is striking out 31% of the time but has just three homers and eight doubles.

The Rays have been shuffling various guys through the hot corner, with Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes both having great seasons. Though Diaz also plays first base and Paredes second. If Brandon Lowe, fresh off the IL, is healthy enough to move to the outfield, that would help them cover for the injuries to Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez. Even if not, Wisdom would certainly be a better bench bat than Yu Chang and his batting line of .181/.253/.264. Of course, the low-spending Rays would certainly like Wisdom’s lack of a meaningful salary.

The Brewers are leading the Central due to their pitching but are just about league average offensively. They’ve been spreading at-bats around to Luis Urias, Jace Peterson and Mike Brosseau, though all of those three are capable of playing elsewhere. Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently reported the Brewers are open to moving Kolten Wong, which could open room for Wisdom to take some time at third and bump that trio into spending more time at second.

The Phillies keep trotting out Alec Bohm at the hot corner, who’s hitting .276/.311/.388 for a wRC+ of 92. His numbers were even worse before he went on a tear here in July, hitting .382/.421/.647 for the month. They’ll probably just stick with Bohm and hope he sustains that, but Wisdom would certainly fit financially. The Phils are in uncharted territory in terms of payroll, crossing the luxury tax line for the first time. Since Wisdom hasn’t yet reached arbitration, he wouldn’t stretch them in that regard.

The Rangers have been mixing veterans in at third all year but have given most of the playing time to rookie Josh Smith lately, who’s hitting at a below-average rate. They’re 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and probably sellers but could acquire Wisdom to see what happens down the stretch. He could also hold down the position next year while they wait to see what’s going on with Josh Jung. Their top position player prospect had a chance to be the Opening Day third baseman this year but suffered a shoulder injury in February. He underwent surgery and has yet to return to game action.

There are also a handful of teams that aren’t necessarily “win-now” in the strictest sense but could try to implement Wisdom next year. The Rockies, Orioles, Angels, Tigers and Diamondbacks all have long odds of cracking the postseason here in 2022 but are all likely to make moves towards competing next year.

Even if a team doesn’t have an obvious fit at the hot corner, he’d likely serve as an upgrade on one of their bench bats, even among the best teams in the league. The Dodgers, for instance, have Hanser Alberto who’s hitting .227/.236/.364 for a wRC+ of 66. The red-hot Yankees have Marwin Gonzalez and his .234/.301/.378 batting line, 95 wRC+. The Astros have rookie J.J. Matijevic, who’s hitting a tepid .150/.209/.350 for a wRC+ of 58. Limiting Wisdom to a part-time role could also improve his output, as he’s generally been better against lefties. He has a 120 wRC+ against southpaws and 106 against righties for his career, with a more pronounced 142-100 split this season, though he still strikes out a lot against both.

There’s certainly no urgency for the Cubs to work out a Wisdom trade right this second. They will no doubt be busy working out trades for Contreras, Robertson, Givens and Happ in the coming weeks. With Wisdom’s extra years of control, he’s certainly on the backburner in terms of priorities. However, given the volatile nature of his production, they could look to strike while the iron is hot.

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