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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

By | at March 21, 2023 9:15pm CDT

The Braves were the offseason’s least active free agent spender. With payroll mounting, they allowed a star hitter to depart for a second straight offseason. Atlanta instead landed arguably the top player of the winter trade market, promptly extending him to join a loaded internal group.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $1.4MM
Total spending: $1.4MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Jake Odorizzi exercised $12.5MM player option instead of $6.25MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Tyler Matzek to two-year, $3.1MM extension (deal also contains 2025 club option and potentially buys out one free agent year)
  • Signed C Sean Murphy to six-year, $73MM extension (deal also contains 2029 club option and potentially buys out four free agent years)

Notable Losses

The Braves had an otherworldly second half to secure their fifth consecutive NL East title. Unlike the year before, they weren’t able to catch fire during the postseason. After losing in the Division Series to the Phillies, Atlanta went into the offseason again facing the potential departure of a star position player.

As was the case with Freddie Freeman a year ago, there was some early belief the Braves wouldn’t part ways with Dansby Swanson. The former first overall pick is a Georgia native and had emerged as a clubhouse leader, to say nothing of his excellent durability and quality production on both sides of the ball. Yet reports even before the offseason began suggested Atlanta had floated around $100MM in extension talks — a number that might’ve been acceptable early in the year but looked very light by the start of the offseason.

Atlanta made Swanson a qualifying offer that he predictably rejected. There didn’t seem to be much further contact; Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported in early December that Atlanta and Swanson’s camp hadn’t had any real negotiations since the start of the offseason. Two weeks after that, Swanson was a Cub. His $177MM guarantee with Chicago shattered Atlanta’s reported offer from during the season. The Braves picked up a compensatory draft pick but go into 2023 with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years.

Swanson was one of four All-Star caliber shortstops available in free agency. Atlanta was never substantively linked to any of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts either, hinting at the payroll questions that surrounded the organization throughout the winter. No organization has been as successful as the Braves at signing early-career players to long-term extensions. Deals for the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II have locked in a core that should compete throughout the decade. Yet those contracts have run up the payroll, limiting the club’s flexibility to attack free agency.

Atlanta entered the winter with a projected franchise-record payroll. The Liberty Media ownership group floated the notion of running top five payrolls in the near future. That raised the expectations among some within the fanbase but always felt a bit misleading, as Atlanta’s existing commitments put them in the back half of the top ten in spending already. There simply didn’t seem to be much room for the front office to play the open market.

No other team spent less in free agency. Atlanta’s only major league free agent signees were corner outfielder Jordan Luplow and relievers Nick Anderson and Jackson Stephens (the latter two of whom signed split deals that pay less for time spent in the minors). All three players had been cut at the start of the offseason — Stephens by the Braves themselves — and none will open this year on the MLB roster. Luplow and Anderson have already been optioned to Triple-A, while Atlanta ran Stephens through waivers and sent him outright to Gwinnett.

Without much spending capacity, Braves’ brass turned to the trade market to bolster a win-now roster. Atlanta orchestrated arguably the biggest trade of the winter, a three-team blockbuster that registered as a major surprise. There was never much doubt the rebuilding A’s would trade Sean Murphy. However, few would’ve pegged Atlanta as the landing spot back in November. The Braves already had a quality catching group consisting of Travis d’Arnaud, William Contreras and Manny Piña. There were plenty of other teams with a more dire catching need.

Murphy is a special player, though, one whom Atlanta pursued despite that positional depth. He’s among the sport’s best defensive catchers and has hit at an above-average level throughout his four-season career. Murphy has topped 15 home runs in each of the last two years despite playing his home games in one of the sport’s least favorable offensive environments. He draws walks, has power, and posted a personal-low 20.3% strikeout rate last season. There aren’t many more valuable all-around catchers.

Even a team with as much depth as the Braves would upgrade from adding a player of that caliber. Shortly after the Winter Meetings, Atlanta pulled it off by looping in the Brewers in a three-team deal that would send young outfielder Esteury Ruiz from Milwaukee to Oakland. Contreras, a quality hitter with some defensive concerns, was shipped off to Milwaukee as their catcher of the future. Piña headed back to the A’s as part of a salary offset. The Braves relinquished some upper level rotation depth, packaging Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok and High-A pitching prospect Royber Salinas to Oakland. Atlanta gave up a handful of well-regarded players but no one in that group looks like the kind of headliner the Braves will be devastated to lose, particularly since Murphy steps in as an immediate upgrade over the best player they relinquished.

A big part of Murphy’s appeal was his three remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility. While he was controllable at below-market rates through 2025, Atlanta committed to him as part of the core long before he ever donned a Braves uniform. Within weeks of the trade, Murphy and the Braves had agreed to a $73MM extension that buys out three free agent years and gives the club an affordable $15MM option for a fourth. It was another extension that has the potential to be a team-friendly pact and aligns well with the contention window for this core.

With Murphy in the fold, d’Arnaud gets pushed into the role of overqualified backup. Atlanta quickly made clear they wouldn’t look to trade him. They’ll instead deploy him frequently as the designated hitter and on rest days for Murphy. It served to indirectly upgrade a DH position that was one of the few position player weaknesses on the roster.

How to divvy up DH playing time dovetails with one of the other questionable spots: left field. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t performed well through the first two seasons of a four-year deal. He’s still due $37MM over the next couple seasons and remains on the roster. Atlanta looks set to give him another shot to reestablish himself offensively while splitting time between left field and DH.

That’s also true of Eddie Rosario. He followed up his 2021 World Series heroics with a disastrous ’22 campaign, hitting .212/.259/.328 in 80 games. The organization has attributed those struggles to an eye issue for which he underwent corrective vision surgery last April. There’s presumably some merit to that but Rosario has been one of the sport’s streakiest players throughout his eight-year MLB career. He’s not likely to be as bad as he was last season but he’s also not the established offensive force a team would be enthused to have in left field.

Rather than bring in a clear upgrade, Atlanta took a volume approach to left field. Luplow signed to add a right-handed matchup bat to the mix. The Braves took a flier on the toolsy Sam Hilliard, a former Rockie with big power but massive strikeout tallies. Atlanta also acquired defensive specialist Eli White from the Rangers and brought in veteran Kevin Pillar on a minor league deal. Adam Duvall and Robbie Grossman were allowed to depart in free agency. Hilliard and Pillar remain in MLB camp and could have the leg up on season-opening bench spots, with Hilliard out of minor league options and Pillar having the right to retest free agency if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

It’s a hodgepodge of options without a clear solution, one where the organization seems set to take a hot hand approach. Whoever’s in left will be joined by two of the sport’s top young outfielders in Harris and Acuña. It’s a similar story on the infield, where three stars are joined by one area of concern.

Olson and Albies will be back on the left side of the infield. Riley has third base secured. Atlanta maintained throughout the winter it’d be an open competition to replace Swanson. There seemed a general expectation that 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom would take that job after he flashed some offensive potential last season while Albies was injured. Grissom’s production tailed off after a scorching start and prospect evaluators aren’t convinced he’ll be able to handle the position defensively. Atlanta settled the Opening Day shortstop debate yesterday, optioning both Grissom and former first-round pick Braden Shewmake to Gwinnett.

The job now falls to Orlando Arcia, an experienced utility option whose career offensive track record is below-average. The 28-year-old hit at a decent .244/.316/.416 clip in part-time action last season, however. The Braves will go with stability over upside in the early going, turning to Arcia and likely tabbing non-roster invitee Ehire Adrianza as a utility option off the bench. There’s no question they’re in for a downgrade relative to Swanson, though that would’ve been true regardless of which player won the job. Arcia is an unexciting stopgap whom the club will count on as a low-end regular while giving Grissom and Shewmake more developmental run. The Braves could have turned to a veteran free agent like Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias for little cost but apparently don’t consider either to be a better player than Arcia.

While a veteran won the shortstop job out of camp, Atlanta’s fifth starter role looks as if it’ll fall to a rookie. The Braves have an elite top four with Max Fried, Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Atlanta cleared a path to the fifth spot for a young pitcher at the start of the offseason, paying down $10MM of Jake Odorizzi’s $12.5MM contract to offload him to Texas. That deal brought back former first-round pick Kolby Allard, who has gotten hit hard at the MLB level and will start the year on the injured list because of an oblique issue.

With Odorizzi out of the picture, the fifth starter job seemed to fall to one of Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder or Michael Soroka. Soroka fell out of the Opening Day mix by suffering a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Anderson and Elder got leapfrogged on the depth chart by prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, both of whom have excelled in camp. Anderson and Elder were optioned out, leaving Dodd and Shuster to battle for the fifth spot. Neither has yet played in MLB; they’re both coming off strong seasons in the upper minors and have quality secondary stuff and command to compensate for mediocre velocity.

As with any team, the Braves are sure to cycle through a number of pitchers at the back of the rotation as injuries and performance necessitate. The fifth spot shouldn’t be a huge concern thanks to the elite front four and a bullpen that again looks like one of the game’s best. They let closer Kenley Jansen walk after one very good season in Atlanta but have ample possibilities to fill the high-leverage innings.

The Braves acquired Raisel Iglesias at last summer’s deadline as a ready-made closing replacement for Jansen. A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee are excellent setup options from the left side. Atlanta brought in veteran specialist Lucas Luetge in a trade after he was designated for assignment by the Yankees to add a third quality left-hander. Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates are right-handed setup options. The Braves landed one of the better relievers available in trade this offseason, sending third base/corner outfield prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy to Detroit for the final arbitration season of hard-throwing righty Joe Jiménez.

That’s seven spots accounted for if everyone’s healthy. Anderson and Stephens could get looks in a depth capacity at some point. Old friend Jesse Chavez is back in camp as a non-roster invitee and might get the first crack at a long relief role. Atlanta agreed to a two-year deal with Tyler Matzek to cement him as a part of the 2024 relief corps, though he won’t be available this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.

Once the offseason roster work was complete, the Braves turned their attention to a couple administrative concerns. Atlanta signed manager Brian Snitker to an extension that runs through 2025, tacking on two guaranteed seasons to his existing deal. That came on the heels of a notable front office departure, with vice president of scouting Dana Brown departing in January to take over baseball operations with the Astros.

There were a few high-level changes this winter but much of the Braves’ offseason is built around continuity. The Braves struck for one of the biggest trades and added a couple relievers in smaller deals. They did virtually nothing in free agency while watching Swanson and Jansen sign elsewhere. While it may not have been the most exciting winter for the fanbase, the Braves will head into the season with a legitimate goal of claiming a sixth straight NL East title. The organization has committed to this core and the group will try to again hold off the ascendant Mets and Phillies in arguably the game’s most competitive division.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Braves on March 22. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Atlanta offseason? (poll link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Braves' Offseason?

  • B 48% (1,311)
  • C 29% (783)
  • A 12% (324)
  • D 7% (192)
  • F 4% (95)

Total votes: 2,705

 

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

By | at March 21, 2023 7:33pm CDT

While other NL powers loaded up during the offseason, the Dodgers had a comparatively quiet winter that focused more on shorter-term contracts.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $53.3MM
Total spending: $53.3MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Dodgers have already been dealt a pair of significant injury blows in Spring Training, between Tony Gonsolin’s ankle sprain and the much larger-scale problem of Gavin Lux‘s season-ending ACL tear.  These injuries only added to a general sense of unease within the L.A. fanbase, considering that in the aftermath of another playoff disappointment, the Dodgers took a pretty conservative approach to reloading for the 2023 season.

To this end, Dodgers fans might take solace in the fact that there might still be a gap between their team and the rest of the National League, considering that Los Angeles won 111 games last season.  The team’s apparent (and now abandoned) plan to get under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold and reset its penalty status isn’t exactly a new strategy for the Dodgers, considering they didn’t pay any luxury tax in any of the 2018-20 seasons.  Plus, the standard winter plan for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been to take things relatively slow in the offseason apart from perhaps one major addition, i.e. signing Freddie Freeman in 2021-22, signing Trevor Bauer in 2020-21, or trading for Mookie Betts in 2019-20.

This offseason simply lacked that one headline-grabbing move, though it isn’t as if Los Angeles didn’t make some explorations.  The club reportedly had some level of interest in such marquee free agents as Justin Verlander, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodon, and even Aaron Judge, as well as other notable free agent and trade targets like Andrew McCutchen, Seth Lugo, the Brewers’ Willy Adames, and Kolten Wong (who ended up dealt from the Brewers to the Mariners).

Of course, the Dodgers’ financial strength and farm system depth can allow them to at least consider pretty much any player in baseball, and it could be that some of those pursuits were simple due diligence.  The end result of the Dodgers’ winter machinations was a series of short-term signings, as L.A. didn’t give any free agent beyond one guaranteed year.  Shortstop Miguel Rojas was signed to a contract extension soon after being acquired from the Marlins, but even that deal is only guaranteed through the 2024 season.

Rojas joins Betts, Freeman, Gonsolin, Austin Barnes, and Chris Taylor as the only Dodgers officially under contract for the 2024 season, and Betts, Freeman and Taylor are the only players on the books for 2025 and beyond.  As such, Los Angeles could possibly look to reset its luxury tax status next winter, though it’ll be a bit trickier for Friedman since he’ll have to navigate a plethora of club option decisions, as well as deciding whether or not to try and re-sign any of this year’s free agent additions, plus Julio Urias‘ impending entry into free agency.

Bauer’s situation was undoubtedly a major factor in the Dodgers’ approach to the 2022-23 offseason.  The league issued Bauer a 324-game suspension last April under the MLB/MLBPA joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, and after Bauer appealed the decision, an neutral arbitrator reduced the suspension to 194 games.  This covered the time Bauer had already missed, and thus he was reinstated from suspension and his remaining $22.5MM in salary was returned to the Dodgers’ payroll.  (The Dodgers released Bauer within a few weeks of the arbitrator’s ruling, but naturally the team is still obligated to pay the money owed.)  Since the club’s estimated luxury tax number is roughly $245.1MM, Los Angeles would have been under the $233MM tax threshold with room to spare without Bauer’s salary on the books.

With this financial outlook in mind, Kershaw and Jimmy Nelson were the only members of the Dodgers’ lengthy free agent list to return to Chavez Ravine, as the team saw Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin, and Tommy Kahnle all head elsewhere on multi-year contracts.  The Dodgers also added to their list of free agents with some notable non-tenders and declined club options, most notably Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner.

Los Angeles’ focus on filling those roster holes was split into two fronts.  Firstly, the Dodgers are eager to see what they have in a wide array of big league-ready young talent.  Miguel Vargas is slated to be the club’s regular second baseman, as the former top prospect has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level.  James Outman figures to be part of the outfield picture at some point this season, if perhaps not on the Opening Day roster.  Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are competing to see who earns a rotation spot in Gonsolin’s absence, and pitching prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are also on the verge of debuting in the majors.  Other top-100 prospects like Michael Busch and Andy Pages could also be in the big leagues before 2023 is over, and the Dodgers also picked up an interesting young player from outside the organization in utilityman Yonny Hernandez.

Many teams would be excited to have just one or two of those prospects ready to step up, so the Dodgers’ deep minor league pipeline is something of an embarrassment of riches for a big-market club that is also willing to spend.  Rather than put too much pressure on the youngsters, Los Angeles augmented the roster with some veteran names that might prove a more immediate benefit in 2023.

The Dodgers seemingly kept up hope that they could re-sign Justin Turner for much of the winter, but ultimately pivoted to another experienced former All-Star in J.D. Martinez.  As pretty much a DH-only player at this point in his career, Martinez’s lack of versatility is a bit of a departure from the Dodgers’ usual model of player acquisition, yet the team is hopeful that Martinez can get fully on track after his power numbers dipped with the Red Sox last season.  Even with a lack of slugging, Martinez still provided Boston with above-average (119 wRC+) production while hitting .274/.341/.448 over 596 plate appearances.

While Bellinger’s precipitous dropoff at the plate had already turned the former NL MVP into more of a platoon player, Los Angeles still needed to replace Bellinger’s strong defense and bolster the outfield depth on the whole.  In signing Peralta and Heyward, the Dodgers added a pair of left-handed hitters to balance out the lineup, with Peralta probably more of an offense-focused signing while Heyward brings the glovework.  Peralta projects as the regular left fielder against right-handed pitching, whereas Heyward’s playing time figures to hinge on how much the Dodgers are willing to play him in center field when Trayce Thompson is out of the lineup, or how much time Heyward might get in his customary right field spot if Betts is being used at second base.  The versatile Taylor will also get playing time in both the outfield and infield, at multiple positions.

Lux’s injury was a massive blow for many reasons, most obviously because an up-and-coming young player has had his career sidetracked for an entire year.  The Dodgers were confident enough in Lux’s ability to become the everyday shortstop that they didn’t make much of an effort to re-sign Trea Turner, nor did the team make too deep an incursion into the free agent shortstop market (apart from checking in on Bogaerts and Swanson).  With Rojas acquired from the Marlins to provide some more depth, Los Angeles was ready to give Lux a full opportunity to establish himself as an everyday big league shortstop.

With the worst-case scenario now visited upon Lux and the Dodgers, Rojas has been thrust into everyday duty.  It certainly isn’t an unfamiliar spot for Rojas given his years of experience in Miami, and if he continues to deliver his usual strong defense, the Dodgers might be okay with Rojas’ inconsistent bat considering the offense elsewhere in the regular lineup.  Taylor and Hernandez can also chip in at shortstop if needed, but this also stands out as a position where the Dodgers could add some outside help.  Spring Training is “not the most natural time to make a trade,” Friedman recently noted to media, but speculatively, L.A. might look to target shortstops at the trade deadline if Rojas and company can hold the fort until midseason.

On the pitching side, the rotation still looks strong even with Gonsolin is temporarily out of action.  Assuming Pepiot or Grove can capably fill in as the fifth starter, Los Angeles has Urias, Dustin May in his full-season return after Tommy John surgery, franchise icon Kershaw, and newcomer Noah Syndergaard in the top four.

Though it took close to a month for Kershaw to officially re-sign with the Dodgers after news broke of his agreement with the team, there wasn’t much mystery about his latest free agent venture, as Kershaw pretty quickly agreed to return for his 16th season in Los Angeles.  Because Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and has such a lengthy injury history, he can’t be considered an entirely sure thing, yet Kershaw has established a pretty clear “new normal” for himself at this stage in his career.  The southpaw has been limited to 22 starts in each of the last two seasons due to wear-and-tear types of injuries, yet when Kershaw has pitched, he has still looked like a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Anderson posted outstanding numbers in his one season in Los Angeles, but while Syndergaard isn’t being counted on to truly replace Anderson, Syndergaard would naturally love to follow that model of a career resurgence.  While the righty had a solid 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies in 2022, Syndergaard is hoping for more now that he is more fully removed from the Tommy John surgery that cost him virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.  It remains to be seen if Syndergaard can get back to his past All-Star level from his days with the Mets, but such a scenario can’t be ruled out given the Dodgers’ past success at getting veteran pitchers on track.

L.A. mostly stood pat with its relief corps, at least in the short term.  The acquisitions of Alex Reyes and J.P. Feyereisen are longer-term upside plays for later in the 2023 season, since both pitchers are recovering from shoulder surgeries.  Nelson also missed all of 2022 due to TJ surgery, but the Dodgers were confident enough in his ability to return that Nelson was re-signed to a new guaranteed big league deal.  Los Angeles also gave Shelby Miller a one-year MLB deal in the hopes that Miller can finally establish himself as a relief pitcher, despite Miller’s lack of results or even playing time at the Major League level in recent years.

While these signings may look uninspiring, an argument can be made that the Dodgers didn’t need to do much beyond tinker with a bullpen that was one of the league’s best in 2022.  Seeing who (if anyone) steps into a full-time closer role will be an interesting story to watch as the season progresses, and the Dodgers figure to be somewhat fluid with their bullpen mix depending on whether any of the rotation prospects end up debuting as relievers, or if trade possibilities emerge.

That kind of wait-and-see element might extend to the roster as a whole, as the front office has shown in the past that it will be aggressive in making in-season moves, whether it’s lower-level pickups or trade deadline blockbusters.  It could be that Friedman will save the “one headline-grabbing move” for the deadline, when the Dodgers have a better idea of their needs, how the younger players are fitting in, and what veterans have or haven’t contributed.  There is some risk in this strategy, but these are the risks an 111-win team can afford to make considering that it seems quite unlikely that the Dodgers will fall out of the playoff race.

How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

How would you grade the Dodgers' offseason?

  • C 46% (1,175)
  • B 21% (536)
  • D 21% (523)
  • F 8% (206)
  • A 4% (99)

Total votes: 2,539

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown

By | at March 21, 2023 12:14pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.

Three More

Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.

Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.

Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.

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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

By | at March 20, 2023 11:34am CDT

The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years, taking their payroll to levels it’s never reached before. It finally paid off in 2022, as the club made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They doubled down on that aggression this winter, signing multiple free agents and locking up a couple of players with notable extensions.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $68.7MM
Total spending: $407.2MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Robert Suarez opted out of one year and $5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout, later re-signed
  • OF Jurickson Profar opted out of one year and $7.5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout
  • Club declined $20MM option on OF Wil Myers in favor of $1MM buyout
  • RHP Nick Martinez opted out of three years and $18MM remaining on contract for $1.5MM buyout, later re-signed

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Going into the 2018 season, the Padres decided it was time for change. It had been over a decade since their last trip to the postseason and they had never been huge players in free agency. They started to flip that narrative by signing first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM contract. That deal didn’t end up going well, but it nonetheless sent the message that the club meant business. That was followed up with the club signing Manny Machado and extending Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as trading for players like Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.

Despite all those bold moves, the club still found ways to struggle. Though they qualified for the postseason in the expanded field of the shortened 2020 campaign, they finished below .500 in each 162-game season from 2011 to 2021. Things finally clicked in 2022, with the Padres stealing all the headlines at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury. It resulted in the club finishing 89-73 and grabbing a Wild Card spot. They knocked off heavyweight teams like the Mets and the Dodgers before ultimately falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Though they finally broke through and had the success that long eluded them, the club quickly made it clear that they had little interest in taking their foot off the gas as they continue their pursuit of a World Series title. The first order of business was retaining a few in-house players. Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez each opted out of their respective contracts to become free agents. Within a few days, they were already back in the fold on eight-figure guarantees. Suarez was excellent in 2022, but it was his first in the majors at the age of 31 after many years in Japan. It was a somewhat similar situation for Martinez, who was also 31 and had been in Japan for three years following a rough MLB stint from 2014-17. The fact that the club made such large guarantees to relatively unproven pitchers signaled that they would have few financial obstacles in their path this winter.

From there, the Friars set their sights on a big splash. They reportedly offered both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge larger guarantees than they eventually accepted from the Phillies and Yankees, respectively. That’s not to say that either player turned up their nose at a chance of joining the Padres, as Turner seemingly preferred to be on the East Coast while Judge preferred to remain a Yankee for life.

After missing on two big swings, the club finally connected on the star signing they sought with Xander Bogaerts. The deal shattered most predictions, including ours. MLBTR pegged Bogaerts for a seven-year, $189MM deal, but he ended up soaring past that both in terms of the years and the guarantee. It was also surprising to see the Padres pursue a shortstop, as that didn’t seem to be their primary need. Ha-Seong Kim had a fine season replacing Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed all of 2022 due to injuries and an 80-game PED suspension. Tatis still has 20 games left on that but should be back in action early in 2023. The fact that the club initially set its sights on Judge perhaps indicates there was a chance Tatis could stick at short, but the acquisition of Bogaerts also showed they weren’t committed to letting him retake his spot there.

With Bogaerts now set to take over at the club’s everyday shortstop, Kim will get pushed over to second, nudging Jake Cronenworth to first. That will leave Tatis in the outfield, alongside Soto and Trent Grisham. That reduced the need for a big splash in the outfield, but the club did bolster their options on the grass by signing Matt Carpenter and Adam Engel. The latter is a glove-first option that was non-tendered by the White Sox and should make for a solid fourth outfielder. The former was awful from 2019 to 2021 but rebounded tremendously last year. He re-emerged with the Yankees and was one of the best hitters on the planet for a stretch before a foot fracture slowed him down. He finished the year with 15 home runs in just 47 games and a batting line of .305/.412/.727, wRC+ of 217. He played the four corner positions last year and could do so again, though the eventual return of Tatis should diminish the need for him to take any outfield reps.

All of this shuffling is necessary to get Bogaerts into the shortstop position and, more importantly, his bat into the lineup. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has hit 105 home runs and slashed .300/.373/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. That latter number places him in the top 20 among all qualified hitters in the league. He’s been remarkably consistent, keeping that figure between 129 and 141 in each of those five campaigns. His defense has been a little less consistent, but he did get positive grades from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average last year. The Padres made a significant investment to get a deal done, but there’s every reason to expect they got a premier player for it.

With Bogaerts in hand, the next stage of the offseason continued to be busy, though at a lesser tier of free agency. Though they had retained Martinez, the rotation was still in need of bolstering with the departures of Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger. Offseason rumors suggested that clubs were interested in Seth Lugo as a starter, despite the fact that he’s been pitching out of the Mets’ bullpen for the past few years. The Padres decided to be the team to give Lugo that shot, signing him in mid-December. Lugo has been a fine reliever but is generally pretty unproven in the rotation. The last time he made more than seven starts in a season was back in 2017.

After that Lugo deal, the Padres had a front-loaded rotation. It was headlined by three great hurlers in Musgrove, Darvish and Snell, but they were followed by two unestablished starters in Lugo and Martinez. They decided to add some security as the offseason went along, eventually adding Michael Wacha, who posted a solid 3.32 ERA last year. He’s no sure thing either, as recurring shoulder issues have prevented him from tossing 130 innings in a season since 2017. But the Friars also added a few strands to the safety net by bringing in Brent Honeywell Jr., Wilmer Font, Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran. Those extra options will likely be important all season long, even in the beginning, as Musgrove recently fractured a toe and seems likely to miss a couple of starts.

The lineup was also in a good place, with Bogaerts joining Soto and Machado as the key threats. The Padres would go on to add some complementary pieces in Carpenter, Engel and then Nelson Cruz. It’s been a rough stretch for Cruz lately, as he struggled with the Rays at the end of 2021 and then hit just .234/.313/.337 for the Nats last year. Given that he’s now 42 years old, it would be fair to wonder if his age was finally catching up with him. However, Cruz underwent eye surgery in the offseason, telling reporters that some inflammation has been blocking his vision over the past year and a half. Perhaps he can bounce back, perhaps not, but the Padres only put down $1MM to find out. If the gamble pays off, it will add yet another potent bat into the mix.

With the calendar showing February and the roster looking fairly set, the focus shifted to long-term concerns. The rotation had some uncertainty over the horizon, as both Darvish and Snell were slated for free agency after 2023. Lugo, Wacha and Martinez also aren’t guaranteed to be back next season, as all three of them either have options or opt-outs that could potentially result in them returning to free agency. That left Musgrove as the only starter locked in for 2024, so the Padres decided to get a bit more clarity by extending Darvish. The deal was surprising in that it came out of nowhere, but also in its length. Darvish is already 36 and his new deal will run past his 42nd birthday. It seems likely that this is a tactic to reduce the club’s competitive balance tax calculation.

We’ll circle back to that CBT conversation in a moment, but the Padres weren’t done with the extensions just yet. Manny Machado still had six years remaining on his ten-year deal, but he had an opt-out opportunity coming up at the end of 2023. Given that he had an MVP-caliber season last year and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement had seemingly improved the free agent market for players, Machado would have been justified in heading back to the open market. He was quite open about his intent to do, but the Padres decided they didn’t want to see that happen and locked him in with a new 11-year, $350MM deal. Since Machado already had six years and $180MM in hand, this tacked on five years and $170MM to prevent him from departing.

This new era of aggressive spending for the Padres has resulted in the club paying the luxury tax in each of the past two years. Their continued spending this year will result in them paying for a third straight season and that will come with elevated tax rates. A third-time payor faces a 50% tax for any spending over the lowest threshold, which is $233MM this year. That jumps to 62% over the $253MM tier and 95% over the $273MM tier. It was reported about a month ago that the Padres were narrowly below that third tier, but that was before the Machado extension came down. His new deal bumped his AAV from $30MM to $31.81MM, perhaps nudging them over that line. If they can manage to get back under the $273MM figure, they’ll avoid the unwelcome penalty of having their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back 10 spots.

Regardless of which side of that threshold the Padres ultimately fall, it seems the lengthy deals are an attempt to at least moderately mitigate their CBT hits, for this year and the future. As mentioned, the Darvish extension will run past his 42nd birthday, while Bogaerts and Machado will each turn 41 in the final seasons of their respective deals. The annual values on the Bogaerts and Darvish deals, in particular, are lower than the per-year market rate for players of this caliber. Time will tell whether subsequent extensions might follow; the team is reportedly interested in extending both Soto and Hader.

Ultimately, these are all footnotes to the larger story of owner Peter Seidler deciding that he didn’t want the Padres to be a small-market team anymore. The Friars are currently third in the league in terms of both pure payroll and CBT, with only the two New York clubs ahead of them. It’s already resulted in one trip to the NLCS, and the hope is for even more to come. When asked if his spending was sustainable, Seidler told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he preferred a different question. “Do I believe our parade is going to be on land or on water or on boat?”

How would you grade the Padres’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Padres' offseason?

  • A 61% (1,724)
  • B 28% (794)
  • C 6% (169)
  • F 4% (108)
  • D 2% (47)

Total votes: 2,842

In conjunction with the Padres’ offseason review, we hosted a Padres-focused chat on March 21. You can click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres

MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

By | at March 17, 2023 11:19pm CDT

The Braves made a surprising decision this week, optioning both Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett. That takes the duo out of consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation. Atlanta’s top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is settled, but the final slot now looks as if it’ll go to someone previously expected to open the year in the minors.

With injuries to Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard keeping them out of the season-opening mix, Elder and Anderson had seemed the favorites for the last rotation spot. Instead, it now seems the Braves will turn to a pitcher with no MLB experience out of the gate. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd look as if they’re battling for the final spot.

Jared Shuster

The 24-year-old Shuster was Atlanta’s first-round pick out of Wake Forest in 2020. He split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett, working to a 3.29 ERA in 139 1/3 innings. He punched out 26.2% of batters faced compared to a modest 6.9% walk rate overall. Shuster’s strikeout numbers dropped precipitously after a midseason jump to Triple-A, however. He’d fanned 30% of opponents in 17 appearances with Mississippi but that mark fell to 19.4% over 10 outings for the Stripers.

Baseball America considers Shuster the #3 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet credits him with a plus changeup and above-average control. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and scouts peg his slider as a fringe-average pitch. Shuster has thrown 10 2/3 innings this spring, allowing only one run with 16 strikeouts and two walks.

Dylan Dodd

Dodd, also 24, was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2021. An underslot senior signee coming out of Southeast Missouri State, Dodd moved across three minor league levels in his first full professional season. He started 16 games with High-A Rome and nine for Mississippi before closing out the ’22 campaign with one appearance in Gwinnett. The left-hander soaked up 142 innings over the three levels, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage while only walking 5.3% of opponents.

Ranked the #6 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, Dodd has a similar pitchability profile as Shuster. His fastball also sits in the low-90s and he leans heavily on a pair of advanced breaking pitches in his changeup and slider. He’s an excellent strike-thrower who’s generally regarded as a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Dodd has tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings in exhibition play, punching out 11 without handing out any free passes.

————-

The book on Shuster and Dodd is fairly similar. They’re both advanced left-handers with strong secondary stuff and control to drive the profile despite middling velocity. They’re each recent college draftees without a ton of professional experience but already in their mid-20s. Both pitchers are having excellent showings in Grapefruit League play, apparently vaulting themselves past Elder and Anderson on the immediate depth chart. Neither is yet on the 40-man roster but Atlanta has a vacancy after losing Dennis Santana on waivers last month and could clear more room by placing Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa on the 60-day injured list.

It stands to reason both Shuster and Dodd will make their MLB debuts at some point this year. One of the duo now figures to break camp with the big league club and assume a key role from the season’s outset. Who will get the nod?

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Be Braves' Fifth Starter To Open The Season?

  • Jared Shuster 68% (3,049)
  • Dylan Dodd 23% (1,019)
  • Other (specify in comments) 9% (384)

Total votes: 4,452

 

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By | at March 16, 2023 9:23pm CDT

The National League champions reloaded for another run at the World Series, including a $300MM splurge on Trea Turner.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $64.77M
Total spending: $399MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Months before the end of the regular season and before the Phillies made their Cinderella run through the playoffs, there was already speculation that the club would be targeting a major upgrade at shortstop.  Philadelphia at least checked in each of the “big four” free agent shortstops (Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), and there was at least some early indication that Xander Bogaerts might be atop the team’s list due to his past Red Sox history with Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb outlined in a piece in early December, Turner quickly emerged as the Phillies’ top priority, and the feeling seemed mutual on shortstop’s end.  Turner was already friendly with Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long from their days together with the Nationals, and Philadelphia was an ideal geographical choice since the Turner family was reportedly prioritizing a move to the East Coast.  Turner liked the fit enough that he reportedly turned down a $342MM offer from the Padres to join the Phillies.

Of course, it’s not like Turner exactly took a bargain rate.  He became one of just six players to hit the $300MM threshold on a free-agent deal, and the Phillies’ second such signing (after Harper) within the last four years.  There are plenty of similarities between the Harper and Turner contracts, including the fact that the Phillies spread out their money over the 13-year and 11-year spans of the respective deals in order to minimize the luxury tax hit as best as possible.

The Phillies had never exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax prior to the 2022 season, yet managing partner John Middleton has never been shy about spending during his seven-plus years in control of the franchise.  That willingness to spend has now manifested into a deeper plunge into tax territory, as the Phillies’ current tax bill is projected at roughly $259.8MM — well over the second CBT penalty tier of $253MM.  This means that the Phillies will pay a heavier tax rate both for this higher payroll, as for exceeding the CBT for two consecutive seasons.  Exceeding the CBT line in 2022 also put extra consequences on the Turner signing, as because Turner rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, the Phillies had to give up $1MM in international bonus money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.

That said, it’s a price ownership seem happy to pay now that the Phillies are finally back in contention.  2022 marked the Phils’ first postseason appearance since the 2011 season, and with an NL pennant now flying, the organization is eager to take the next step and lock down a World Series.  Dombrowski’s front office will get plenty of opportunity to achieve this goal, as ownership extended Dombrowski through the 2027 season, and GM Sam Fuld and assistants GMs Jorge Velandia and Ned Rice all received extensions running through the 2025 season.

It will still be some time before we see the ideal version of this Phillies team, since Harper will be out until roughly the All-Star break as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Even then, the Phils plan to utilize Harper only as a DH during the initial days or weeks of his return, with an eye towards possibly getting him back to his regular right-field duty by later in the season.  While it’s an open question as to how any player will bounce back after a Tommy John procedure, it’s probably a good sign that Harper still posted superstar numbers in 2022 despite playing through a torn UCL for most of the season.  Even a B or B+ version of Harper is still a boost to any lineup, so the Phillies will be eager to have him back as soon as possible.

Turner broadly fills the superstar gap in Harper’s absence, and he’ll add even more speed to an aggressive Philadelphia squad that finished fifth in MLB in stolen bases last year.  The metrics have always been a little split on Turner from a defensive perspective, but between both his bat and his glove, there is no doubt he is a gigantic upgrade for the Phils at the shortstop position.  Neither Didi Gregorius or Bryson Stott contributed much at shortstop over the course of the regular season, though Stott seemed to adjust later in his rookie season and at least managed to hold the fort as the regular starter throughout the playoffs.

Philadelphia saw enough in Stott that the former first-rounder is now being tasked with regular second base work, as the Phils let Jean Segura go to free agency (and a deal with the Marlins) after his $17MM club option was declined.  While the Phillies would love to see Stott establish himself as a Major League regular, a win-now team can’t afford to give too much rope to a young player, which is why veteran Josh Harrison was signed to a one-year contract.  Harrison and in-house utilityman Edmundo Sosa will provide depth at multiple positions, yet second base might be their first stop on the diamond if Stott requires a platoon partner or a timeshare.

Sticking with the Phillies’ bench situation, catchers Aramis Garcia and John Hicks were signed to minor league deals to add some more options behind the plate.  These signings might prove valuable considering that Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan are dealing with injury problems, leaving Philadelphia perhaps looking for a new secondary backstop to support All-Star J.T. Realmuto.

Donny Sands was formerly part of this catching mix, but Sands was dealt along with Matt Vierling and Nick Maton in a trade that shook up the Philadelphia bench.  The Phils sent the trio to Detroit in exchange for reliever Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens, and while the versatile Clemens will help fill the void left by Vierling and Maton, Soto was the prize of the trade.

Soto is a two-time All-Star who is controlled through the 2025 season.  There is plenty of volatility in Soto’s game, as he has an ungainly 13.1% walk rate over his career, and his hard-contact and strikeout numbers also dipped considerably from 2021 to 2022.  However, while the Tigers utilized Soto as their closer, the Phillies might use Soto only as one high-leverage option among many.  For now, manager Rob Thomson said his team will take a committee approach to the ninth inning, with newcomers Soto, Craig Kimbrel, and Matt Strahm vying for save chances alongside incumbents Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado.

Though the relief corps stayed steady for much of the postseason run, Philadelphia’s bullpen has long been a source of inconsistency, and more reinforcement was needed this winter since David Robertson, Brad Hand, and the injured Corey Knebel were all headed into free agency.  (Sam Coonrod was also designated for assignment and then claimed off waivers by the Mets.)  Dombrowski’s response was to make a plethora of lower-level waiver claims and minor league signings of relief options, and that depth was augmented by the higher-profile additions of Soto, Kimbrel, and Strahm.

Investing $25MM of free agent dollars into Kimbrel and Strahm won’t break the bank for a free-spending team like Philadelphia.  However, both pitchers carry their share of question marks, since Kimbrel lost the closer’s job in Los Angeles last season and the Dodgers didn’t even include the veteran righty on their roster for the NLDS.  Strahm has been solid enough throughout his seven MLB seasons that the Phillies were comfortable in betting on his ceiling, yet there was some sense that the Phils overpaid for his services.  (As per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Strahm contract ended up creating a bit of a stalemate amongst other free agent southpaw relievers, who felt they should be matching or exceeding Strahm in total salary or average annual value.)

Some free-agent vacancies also needed to be filled in the rotation, as Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, and Noah Syndergaard all hit the open market and signed with other clubs.  Prior to the Turner signing, there was some speculation that Philadelphia might target an available starter like Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon as a big free-agent splash, though the team ended up aiming to a slightly lower tier by showing interest in Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker.  With both pitchers reportedly receiving similar offers from the Phils, Walker took the deal, giving Philadelphia a solid No. 3 starter behind aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

Walker bounced back from several injury-plagued seasons to become a valuable member of the Mets’ rotation, posting a 3.98 ERA over 316 1/3 innings with New York in 2021-22.  The $72MM contract exceeded projections of what Walker might land on the open market, yet that price reflected the elevated cost of pitching this winter, and again underlined how the Phillies are willing to pay top dollar if they like a player.  Since the Phils didn’t want to sign another player who rejected a qualifying offer, the fact that Walker and Taillon didn’t have QOs attached to their services also likely helped their markets.

Walker’s deal has already grown in importance given that the Phillies have run into some injury concerns in Spring Training.  Ranger Suarez is dealing with some forearm tightness that isn’t thought to be too serious, but creates fresh doubt over Suarez’s readiness for the Opening Day roster.  Depth starters Cristopher Sanchez and Nick Nelson have also been shut down with injuries, and in perhaps the most concerning development, star prospect Andrew Painter has been sidelined with a right UCL sprain.  It will be close to four weeks before the highly-touted young righty will start lightly throwing, so between that timeline and Painter’s lack of Triple-A experience, his anticipated MLB debut might now be held off until closer to midseason at best.

Having Nola, Wheeler, and Walker atop a rotation is a pretty nice stopgap against depth questions, and the Phillies have another interesting young arm in Bailey Falter now set for at least a fifth starter role.  Michael Plassmeyer probably leads the pack of potential starting candidates if the Phillies do need a replacement for Suarez, as it seems unlikely that the Phils would make a bold promotion of Mick Abel by jumping the top prospect from Double-A to the big leagues.

In bigger-picture rotation news, it seems possible that Nola and the Phillies might yet agree to a contract extension, as the two sides were exchanging figures last month.  Nola is scheduled for free agency after the 2023 season, so locking up the righty early would establish Nola, Walker, Suarez, and the younger Falter/Painter/Abel trio as the future of the Phiadelphia pitching staff (and give the team some leverage in deciding what to do when Wheeler’s contract is up after the 2024 campaign).  The Phillies have already been busy on the extension front in committing to Dominguez and Alvarado on multi-year deals, though naturally a Nola contract will be significantly more expensive.

For all of Philadelphia’s roster moves this offseason, an argument can be made that the club spent quite a bit just to fill holes and maintain their level of productivity from 2022.  As noted, this new version of the Phillies won’t be entirely complete until Harper is healthy and joining his old friend Turner in the lineup, so treading water in the competitive NL East is a justifiable strategy until the Phillies have a better sense of what they’ll be getting from Harper.  Plus, while no trade deadline acquisition would be as beneficial as a healthy Bryce Harper, it is safe to assume that Dombrowski is prepared to be again be aggressive at the deadline.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

How would you grade the Phillies' offseason?

  • A 46% (1,132)
  • B 41% (1,011)
  • C 9% (211)
  • F 3% (67)
  • D 2% (45)

Total votes: 2,466

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies

The Dodgers’ Rotation Options If Tony Gonsolin Misses Time

By | at March 16, 2023 4:11pm CDT

The Dodgers were dealt some undesirable news last week when All-Star starter Tony Gonsolin rolled his left ankle during a pitcher-fielding practice session. He was diagnosed with a sprain and unable to put much weight on the leg for a few days.

Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Gonsolin has again started throwing (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). He’s progressed to long toss from 120 feet but has yet to return to the mound. With Opening Day two weeks out, it seems increasingly likely he’ll require a stint on the 15-day injured list.

If that proves the case, the Dodgers will have to add someone to the season-opening rotation behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. Los Angeles doesn’t have the luxury some clubs do of many built-in off days early in the year. They’re scheduled for games in 13 of the first 14 days and 24 of the initial 26 days of the regular season. Unless the club wants to cover some starts via bullpen games, they’ll need a fifth starter if Gonsolin isn’t available.

Likely Front Runners

Ryan Pepiot, 25, two minor league option years remaining

Pepiot seems the favorite for the job. He started seven of his first nine big league games last season, working to a 3.47 ERA over 36 1/3 innings. Pepiot struck out an above-average 26.3% of opponents but his 16.9% walk rate was untenable for a player hoping to stick in a rotation. He showed more serviceable control in the minors, walking 9.8% of batters faced with a lofty 30.9% strikeout rate and a 2.56 ERA in 91 1/3 frames for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

A former third-round pick, Pepiot has developed into one of the better pitching prospects in the sport. The Butler product has a wipeout changeup and plus spin on a fastball that averaged just under 94 MPH last season. Evaluators have expressed trepidation about his breaking ball and especially the consistency of his strike-throwing. Still, he’s an intriguing young pitcher with upper minors success who has shown a decent ability to miss bats early in his time at the big league level. He’s not a finished product but could be capable of providing the Dodgers with a few solid starts in a fill-in capacity.

Michael Grove, 26, two options remaining

A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, Grove overcame some early-career injury concerns to reach the majors last year. He started six of his first seven big league games, posting a 4.60 ERA through 29 1/3 frames. That came with a modest 18% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact. The 6’3″ righty did a solid job throwing strikes, though, limiting walks to a roughly average 7.5% clip.

Like Pepiot, Grove had a solid 2022 campaign in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. He posted a 4.07 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A frames, fanning 26.7% of batters faced against an 8.2% walk percentage. Grove held right-handed batters at the top minor league level to a .213/.266/.368 line over 263 plate appearances. Lefties, on the other hand, teed off at a .279/.344/.541 clip in 192 trips to the dish. It was a similar story at the MLB level. Righties hit .241/.293/.389 in his limited look, while left-handers managed a .275/.333/.522 slash.

Grove doesn’t throw a changeup, relying on a fastball/slider/curveball combination. Prospect evaluators have raised questions about his ability to handle left-handed hitters without a pitch that breaks away from them. That has led to concern about whether he can stick in an MLB rotation long term, though the Dodgers could match him up against right-handed heavy teams like Colorado and the Cubs in the season’s first couple weeks.

Top Prospects

Gavin Stone, 24, not yet on 40-man roster

Stone fell to the fifth round in the 2020 draft. That now looks like a coup, as the Central Arkansas product is a top 100 prospect on lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN. He’s now the second-best pitching prospect in the organization (more on that in a minute) after an utterly dominant minor league season. Across three levels, he combined for a 1.92 ERA with an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and serviceable 8.9% walk percentage through 121 2/3 frames. That culminated in six Triple-A outings, in which he allowed only six runs over 23 1/3 innings.

It now seems a matter of when, not if, Stone will make his big league debut this season. Evaluators credit the 6’1″ righty with a mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the minor leagues and suggest he could be a mid-rotation arm in the near future. He doesn’t have a ton of Triple-A experience and isn’t yet on the 40-man, so the most straightforward move would be to send him back to Oklahoma City to open the season. Given his minor league dominance, there’s at least an argument for plugging him in above Pepiot and Grove immediately, even if it’d require a 40-man roster move to do so.

Bobby Miller, 23, not yet on 40-man roster

The Dodgers’ first-round pick in that ’20 draft class, Miller has shot through the minor league ranks and now ranks among the best prospects in the sport. The Louisville product had a 4.45 ERA over 20 outings for Double-A Tulsa last season. That’s not the most impressive mark but it seems the product of an unlucky 62.5% strand rate. Miller struck out an excellent 30.5% of opponents, induced grounders at a quality 48.2% clip, and kept his walks to an 8.1% rate. He earned a late-season bump to Oklahoma City, where he posted elite strikeout and ground-ball marks over four outings.

He’s now almost universally regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect and a top 50 minor league talent overall. The righty draws unanimous praise for an upper-90s fastball, a pair of power breaking pitches, and an advanced changeup. Miller’s command is still a work in progress but there’s little question the arsenal can play against major league hitters.

Miller doesn’t figure to be an option for the season-opening rotation. Roberts told reporters last week he was being built up slowly to monitor his workload and was unlikely to pitch in a Spring Training game (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He’ll almost certainly be in the majors at some point in 2023 though.

Further Down Depth Chart

Andre Jackson, 26, one option remaining

Jackson has never started a big league game, coming out of the bullpen for all seven of his MLB appearances from 2021-22. The Utah product has worked as a starter in the minors, opening 19 of 21 outings with Oklahoma City last year. He allowed exactly five earned runs per nine innings in Triple-A. Jackson had decent enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers but walked an astronomical 17.2% of opposing hitters.

That’d put him behind Pepiot and Grove on the depth chart. Jackson is on the 40-man roster, though, seemingly giving him a leg up compared to the non-roster invitees in camp. He’s headed into what would be his final option year, so he’ll need to improve his control before long if he’s to earn an extended MLB look in Los Angeles.

Dylan Covey/Robbie Erlin

Both Covey and Erlin have some big league experience and are in camp as non-roster veterans. The 32-year-old Erlin was hit hard in 77 innings with Oklahoma City last season. Covey, 31, returned stateside after a couple solid years in Taiwan’s top league. Covey, in particular, has gotten out to a good start in camp. He’s struck out eight without issuing a walk over six innings. Still, neither seems likely to leapfrog the younger arms in the organization for a season-opening rotation look.

Nick Nastrini/Landon Knack

Nastrini and Knack are both fairly recent college draftees who reached Double-A last season. They’re each among the mid-tier prospects in a strong L.A. system and flashed bat-missing potential with Tulsa. Both pitchers could eventually get an MLB look, though neither figures to be in consideration for a job out of camp. They’re not yet on the 40-man and have yet to reach Triple-A.

————————-

The Dodgers again have a few exciting pitching prospects, two of whom have already gotten a taste of the majors. Pepiot and Grove would accordingly be the safest choices to take the final rotation spot if Gonsolin can’t start the season but they’re not as touted as Miller and Stone. The latter two figure to take the Dodger Stadium mound at some point in 2023, the next in a long line of pitching talent to come through the system.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals

Out Of Options 2023

By | at March 16, 2023 3:18pm CDT

Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

  • None

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand Out Of Options 2023

The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma

By | at March 15, 2023 9:17pm CDT

Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.

Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.

Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.

That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.

Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.

With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.

As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.

Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.

Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).

Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.

Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.

Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.

To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.

It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.

Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.

It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.

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MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

By | at March 15, 2023 6:40pm CDT

The Reds had another slow offseason, their second straight winter defined mostly by inactivity. It’s a rebuild in Cincinnati, with the upcoming season again more about evaluating the future than winning in the short term.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $11.675MM
Total spending: $13.925MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Reds stripped things down over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling a team that had finished a few games off a Wild Card appearance. Payroll constraints led to a reboot of the roster, with a number of veterans shipped out for young talent either last winter or at the summer deadline. That teardown paired with brutal injury luck resulted in the second 100-loss season in franchise history.

It’s an organization now clearly amidst a rebuild. There was never much expectation for the Reds to do a whole lot this offseason, and general manager Nick Krall essentially confirmed as much before the winter got underway.

Unlike last winter, when the likes of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Jesse Winker and Sonny Gray were on the roster, Cincinnati didn’t go into this offseason with many obvious trade chips. The most apparent candidate was shortstop Kyle Farmer, who was headed into his second-to-last season of arbitration control. Farmer is a low-end regular at shortstop or high-quality utility piece who’d have modest appeal to a contender. Cincinnati indeed cashed him in for young talent.

It was a one-for-one swap with the Twins that brought back Double-A swingman Casey Legumina. The Gonzaga product had just been added to the Minnesota 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’ll start the season in the upper minors but could factor into the MLB mix later in the year.

Hours after trading away Farmer, Cincinnati backfilled at shortstop with another stopgap veteran. The Reds and division-rival Pirates aligned on a deal that brought in Kevin Newman for middle reliever Dauri Moreta. Newman is also in his penultimate arbitration season and broadly brings a similar profile to the departed Farmer: a contact-oriented offensive approach at the bottom of a lineup and solid glovework. Newman is a little more affordable and could be a midseason trade chip.

He steps into an infield that has a handful of players vying for reps. It’s unknown if Joey Votto will be ready for Opening Day after last summer’s rotator cuff surgery; once healthy, the former MVP will be back at first base. Jonathan India is looking for a bounceback year at second base.

Newman is the presumptive starting shortstop. Jose Barrero could also get one more look to see if he can piece things together offensively. Barrero was a fairly recent top prospect based on his power and defense. He’s coming off an atrocious season in both Triple-A and the big leagues, though, and the clock could be ticking for him to carve out a role. Elly De La Cruz has now firmly emerged as the likely shortstop of the future; he’ll start the year in the upper minors but could make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Third base also features a few talented but unproven players trying to cement themselves. Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins in last summer’s Mahle trade, made his debut last September. He struggled in his first 28 outings but had an excellent age-24 season in Triple-A. He’ll get the first crack at the hot corner, though there was plenty of buzz in Cincinnati camp regarding corner infield prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Also part of the Mahle trade package, Encarnacion-Strand mashed between High-A and Double-A last season. The Oklahoma State product tore the cover off the ball in Spring Training. Cincinnati reassigned him to minor league camp yesterday, taking him out of the running for an Opening Day roster spot, but he could push Steer for reps before long. That’s also true of Noelvi Marte, a power-hitting infield prospect brought back from the Mariners in the Castillo deal.

The Reds made a firm commitment to the infield youth movement when they released Mike Moustakas in early January. The three-time All-Star was headed into the final season of an ill-advised four-year, $64MM free agent deal. Moustakas had hit only .216/.300/.383 in just 654 plate appearances as a Red. His 2022 campaign was diminished by both underperformance and foot injuries. With little hope of another team taking any notable portion of the $22MM he was due this season, the Reds acknowledged the sunk cost and opened a clearer path to reps for younger players like Steer and Encarnacion-Strand.

Cincinnati should also have room on the bench for a non-roster Spring Training invitee or two. The Reds had arguably the best minor league signing of last winter with Brandon Drury, and they again leveraged their lack of certainty on the roster to bring in a swath of veterans on non-roster pacts. Chad Pinder, Henry Ramos and Jason Vosler are among the position players in camp, while Cincinnati brought in over 10 relievers with some level of MLB experience on minor league deals.

As with the left side of the infield, the outfield is up in the air for players to seize a job. Jake Fraley probably has the leg up on a corner spot after a solid second half. The Reds have maintained they’re going to give former top prospect Nick Senzel another crack in center field. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, so the likes of TJ Friedl and Stuart Fairchild could get on the roster.

The Reds rolled the dice on a pair of former top prospects to add to that mix. Their first move of the offseason was to bring in Nick Solak from the Rangers for cash. It was a no-risk flier on a player who has hit well in the upper minors but struggled to carry that over against MLB pitching. Solak doesn’t have a great positional fit — he struggled mightily at second base and is a fringy corner outfielder as well — but he’s a former second-round draftee who has a .293/.370/.510 line in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

While the Reds didn’t give up anything for Solak, they parted with last year’s second-rounder Justin Boyd to take a shot on 24-year-old Will Benson from the Guardians. A first-round pick in 2016, the 6’5″ Benson has moved extremely slowly up the minor league ranks thanks to huge strikeout totals. He’s shown as patient an approach as anyone in affiliated ball, however, and he clearly has raw power potential. While he’s taken some time to climb the ladder, he’s consistently fared better in his second crack at a level than during his first. That was particularly true last season in Triple-A, when Benson sliced his strikeout rate to a personal-best 22.7% en route to a .278/.426/.522 line.

In addition to those fliers on upside plays, the Reds added to the corner outfield in their biggest free agent move of the winter. Cincinnati guaranteed $7.5MM to Wil Myers on a one-year deal, giving him a chance to rebuild his stock in a hitter-friendly home ballpark. Myers had an up-and-down tenure in San Diego, hitting for power but struggling to make enough contact to be a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter. At age 32, he’s not a long-term core piece for Cincinnati. He’s a perfectly reasonable veteran addition to a young team, one who’d surely be in trade conversations this summer if he’s performing.

Myers is likely to see the bulk of his playing time in right field. That’s in large part because the club is planning to give young catcher Tyler Stephenson more time at designated hitter. The 26-year-old went on the injured list three times last season, all of which were related to incidents behind the plate. He was concussed in a collision with Luke Voit and both fractured his thumb and clavicle on foul tips. Those injuries were all fluky in nature, although there’s little doubt Stephenson will have a better chance of sticking in the lineup if he’s not donning the tools of ignorance as often.

Skipper David Bell told reporters at the start of Spring Training the Reds were aiming for Stephenson to play around 65 games at catcher and 80+ contests at first base/DH (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). With that in mind, Cincinnati added a pair of veteran backstops to take some of the workload. Northern Kentucky native Luke Maile signed a one-year, $1.175MM pact in November. He was joined by power-hitting veteran Curt Casali, who received $3.25MM in January to return to the Reds for a second stint.

The Reds didn’t do as much to augment the pitching staff, even on lower-cost pickups of the Maile/Casali ilk. The only such addition was right-hander Luke Weaver, who signed for $2MM after being non-tendered by the Mariners. Weaver is another former top prospect who showed some early-career success but has fallen on hard times of late. Great American Ball Park isn’t an ideal venue for a pitcher to try to rebuild value. That said, the Reds are likely to afford the 29-year-old another shot to get the ball every fifth day and take a crack at developing a breaking pitch he feels comfortable using regularly.

Weaver will step into the fourth spot in the season-opening rotation. The top three will go to second-year hurlers Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. All three have a chance to be core pieces of the next competitive Cincinnati team, with Greene and Lodolo former top ten picks and consensus top prospects. The final rotation spot is up for grabs this spring. Justin Dunn is out of the immediate mix thanks to shoulder issues. The likes of Connor Overton, Luis Cessa and minor league signee Chase Anderson are battling for the job. Prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could join the group over the summer.

Open competition is also the story of the bullpen. Cincinnati didn’t add any MLB veterans to a relief corps that was among the league’s worst. The only acquisitions were Legumina and waiver claim Bennett Sousa, both of whom could start the year in the minors. Cincinnati should welcome back Lucas Sims from an injury-plagued season. They’d hoped for the same with Tejay Antone but he suffered a forearm strain while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will start the year on the injured list.

Cincinnati has breakout reliever Alexis Díaz ticketed for ninth-inning work. One of the few bright spots of the 2022 campaign, the hard-throwing righty reportedly drew some trade interest over the winter which Cincinnati rebuffed. Sims and Buck Farmer should have high-leverage work and could be trade candidates this summer. The middle relief corps is wide open, with the likes of Silvino Bracho, Daniel Norris, Derek Law, Alex Young and Hunter Strickland trying to earn jobs in Spring Training.

Broadly speaking, the 2023 campaign will be about evaluating players for the future and identifying what veterans could be shipped off in the coming months. It’s hard to envision this team finishing higher than fourth in the National League Central. The Reds are near the lowest period of the rebuild, with most of the veteran players shipped away. They’ll continue to incorporate young talent as they look ahead to next offseason, one which could see a relative spike in activity.

Cincinnati doesn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract for 2024, with option buyouts for Votto, Moustakas, Myers and Casali representing the only firm commitments. The slate is almost clean for the front office to chart a new path back to contention. In the interim, the fanbase is in for another losing season.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Reds on March 16. Click here to view the transcript.

(poll link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Reds' Offseason?

  • D 38% (796)
  • F 30% (634)
  • C 24% (501)
  • B 6% (125)
  • A 3% (61)

Total votes: 2,117

 

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals
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