Headlines

  • Tigers, Tarik Skubal Likely Headed To Arbitration Hearing With $13MM Gap In Filing Figures
  • Yankees’ Offer To Bellinger Reportedly Above $30MM AAV
  • 2026 Arbitration Tracker
  • 18 Players Exchange Filing Figures
  • Phillies To Meet With Bo Bichette
  • Pirates Sign Ryan O’Hearn
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Athletics
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025-26 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • Free Agent Contest Leaderboard
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

MLBTR’s Most Read Articles Of 2022

By Simon Hampton | December 31, 2022 at 1:38pm CDT

2022 was a busy year for baseball. It all started in the middle of a lockout which threatened the season. Then we had a flurry of transactions when business opened up as teams frantically prepared for the upcoming season. The season itself provided plenty of entertainment, whether it was on the field as Aaron Judge chased 62 home runs, or off the field where Juan Soto was traded in one of the biggest deadline deals in history. The season culminated with the Astros beating the Phillies in the World Series. Since then, we’ve seen a flurry of free agent action with most of the top players signing before Christmas.

MLBTR has enjoyed being there throughout, so as we call time on 2022 we thought we’d share our most read articles of the year. A big thank you to you, our readers, for contributing and we look forward to seeing what excitement baseball has in store for us in 2023!

1. March 19: Trevor Story Reportedly Choosing Among Four Teams

Much like this winter, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class was packed with talent, and it all came to a head over a few days in late March. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez had all come off the board pre-lockout, so when baseball reopened for business in mid-March there were two clear top options remaining – Carlos Correa and Trevor Story. The first report surfaced early in the afternoon on the 18th, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Story was choosing between four teams, including the Giants and Red Sox. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic confirmed the Red Sox were in on Story later that afternoon. Yet the twist came that night when the Twins shocked the baseball world and agreed a deal to sign Correa, leaving Story as the clear top free agent left on the market. Sure enough, with Correa suddenly off the board, Heyman reported the next morning that Story had “multiple new suitors”. Adding further intrigue was the uncertainty over what sort of deal Story would take, with reports suggesting he’d be open to short or long term contracts, as well as shifting positions. A day later, Story had a new home, inking a six-year, $140MM contract with the Red Sox.

2. August 2: Report: Padres On The Verge Of Acquiring Juan Soto

It’s hardly surprising to see one of the biggest deadline deals in recent memory make it high up this list. When it was reported in mid-July that Soto had turned down the Nationals’ $440MM extension offer and were willing to listen to trade offers, there was no doubt that the young superstar would dominate the trade deadline headlines. Over the next few weeks, information slowly came out that the Nationals would not offer more than their $440MM mark, and they wanted a monstrous trade haul for Soto. There wasn’t really a precedent for a deal of this magnitude, which made it tricky to predict possible trade packages. Yet on August 2 the Padres satisfied Washington’s huge ask, sending a haul of premium young talent including CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana to get Soto, and rental first-baseman Josh Bell. There would be another wrinkle, as San Diego had planned to send Eric Hosmer to the Nationals as part of the deal, but he exercised his limited no-trade clause to block the deal. The two teams would find a solution though, substituting Luke Voit in for Hosmer to complete one of the biggest trades in MLB history. While the Padres acquired one of the best players on the planet, and the Nationals jumpstarted their rebuild with a haul of young talent, it’ll be fascinating to revisit this trade in five or more years to assess how it panned out in the long run.

3. December 24: Mets Have “Raised Concerns” Over Carlos Correa’s Physical, Deal Still “Likely”

After signing a short-term contract with the Twins the previous winter, Correa looked like he’d cashed in on December 13 after it was reported that the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the shortstop. Yet that was just the beginning of a tumultuous few weeks that looks set to continue into 2023. On December 20, the Giants reportedly postponed Correa’s introduction press conference due to a concern over something in his physical. Then, in the early hours of the next morning, Heyman dropped a bombshell by reporting that Correa had instead agreed to a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets. While there was no official confirmation of the deal, Mets owner Steve Cohen had this to say to Heyman: “we needed one more hitter. This puts us over the top”.  Such a comment from the owner before the signing is official seemed to suggest there was little concern that the concerns San Francisco saw would be an issue for the Mets. Yet on Christmas Eve, a report emerged that the Mets had “raised concerns” over Correa’s physical, particularly his surgically repaired right lower leg. Unlike with the Giants, there would be no quick pivot to a new team, and as things stand the two parties are still trying to work out how to proceed.

4. August 2: Red Sox Acquire Eric Hosmer

The background to this deal has been touched on earlier, and stemmed from the Juan Soto trade. When Hosmer exercised his limited no-trade clause to block being dealt to the Nationals as part of that deal, they quickly sent Luke Voit there instead. That didn’t mean Hosmer was staying in San Diego though, and the Padres quickly found a new trade partner, one that Hosmer could not block a deal to. Boston acquired Hosmer as part of a curious deadline strategy that saw them both buy and sell players. The Padres ate the remaining salary bar the league minimum, which was approximately two months of his $21MM 2022 salary, and a further three years and $39MM. Boston also got prospects Max Ferguson and Corey Rosier, while San Diego received Jay Groome in return. Hosmer’s time in Boston wasn’t particularly successful, he made just 14 appearances before back inflammation ended his season, then the Red Sox DFA’d then released him earlier this month.

5. November 14: 2022-23 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

MLBTR’s Steve Adams took the lead on this annual piece, with valuable contributions from Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald. This year’s Top 50 was, unsurprisingly, topped by the reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge. He’s since signed a nine-year, $360MM deal with the Yankees, which topped the eight-year, $332MM prediction made. Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Clayton Kershaw, Joc Pederson, Martin Perez all had their contracts correctly predicted, while a further 14 player’s contracts fell within $5MM of the prediction.

6. December 12: Braves Acquire Sean Murphy, Brewers Acquire William Contreras In Three-Team Trade

Coming into the off-season, Oakland catcher Sean Murphy was arguably the most obvious trade candidate in the game. Murphy’s elite play combined with a lack of top catching options on the free agent market outside of Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez made him an obvious candidate for a number of team. As many as nine teams had reported interest at some stage in Murphy, and that number could well have been higher. Ultimately, it was the Braves who acquired him, giving up a haul of prospects and sending their own promising catcher in Contreras to Milwaukee to seal the deal. In typical Atlanta fashion, they’d move quickly to lock up their new catcher, signing him to a six-year, $73MM extension just two weeks after acquiring him.

7. December 7: Yankees Sign Aaron Judge To Nine-Year Deal

The Yankees flexed their financial muscle to get this deal done, locking up the reigning AL MVP on a nine-year, $360MM deal and promptly announcing him as the team’s new captain. While Judge is almost certain to end his career in pinstripes now, it didn’t always look that way. After a monster platform year in which he belted an AL-record 62 home runs, Judge went to the open market making no promises of a return to the Bronx. The Giants put in a strong bid to bring Judge back to his northern California roots, and the Padres made a surprising late play to bring him to San Diego. With Judge’s free agency seemingly holding up the markets on a number of other top free agents, it all came to a head at the winter meetings. Judge would turn down opportunities to play elsewhere, instead securing a record free agent contract and a record AAV for a position player to end his career in New York.

8. March 13: Nelson Cruz Deal Moving Along Quickly

Just three days after the lockout ended, veteran slugger Nelson Cruz was moving quickly towards a deal with the Washington Nationals. Coming off yet another strong season at the plate, and with the DH now available to all 30 teams in the new CBA, it’s not surprising Cruz had a robust market once business opened up. The then-41-year-old inked a one-year deal worth $15MM with the Nats. Unfortunately for Cruz, he’d hit just .234/.313/.337 for a wRC+ of 85, the first time it’s been under the league-average 100 mark since 2007.

9. December 6: Aaron Judge “Appears Headed” To Giants

With the Judge sweepstakes heating up, reports from the winter meetings suggested there was momentum towards Aaron Judge heading to San Francisco. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he saw the reports and immediately called general manager Brian Cashman for an update, only to find there was nothing to report. The Giants, too, said Judge had not yet made his decision. Still, it was a sign that Judge’s free agency was coming to a conclusion and by the next day, it was confirmed that he’d agreed to a deal to return to the Yankees.

10. July 27: Yankees To Acquire Andrew Benintendi

Wrapping up our top ten is a move the Yankees made in advance of the deadline this summer. Devoid of left-handed contact hitters, and with regular left fielder Joey Gallo out of favor, Cashman jumped on the chance to acquire Benintendi, who’d put together a .321/.389/.399 line for Kansas City. Gallo would wind up traded to LA a few days later, and Benintendi would be the everyday left fielder. After slumping immediately after arriving in the Bronx, Benintendi recovered slightly to post a .254/.331/.404 over 33 games. He underwent surgery in September to repair a fracture hamate bone, missing the remainder of the regular season and the Yankees’ playoff run.

11. March 16: Dodgers, Freddie Freeman Reportedly Making Progress On Deal

12. July 29: Mariners Finalizing Acquisition Of Luis Castillo From Reds

13. March 20: Red Sox To Sign Trevor Story

14. August 1: Astros To Acquire Trey Mancini

15. March 14: Astros Step Up Efforts To Re-Sign Carlos Correa

16. August 1: Brewers Trade Josh Hader To Padres

17. March 14: Freddie Freeman Rumors: Monday

18. December 17: Cubs Finalizing Contract With Dansby Swanson

19: July 23: Latest On Juan Soto Trade Talks

20: December 21: Mets To Sign Carlos Correa

Share Repost Send via email

MLBTR Originals

43 comments

A History Of New Year’s Eve Transactions

By Simon Hampton | December 31, 2022 at 9:32am CDT

The winter holiday period has generally been a quiet period on the hot stove, perhaps particularly so this year given so many free agent deals occurred prior to Christmas. New Year’s Eve has generally been quiet, but there have been a few big moves that took place on the final day of the calendar in recent years.

Here’s a look at major transactions that took place on December 31 since the start of the 21st century:

  • 2018: The Mariners agree to a deal with Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi.

After eight seasons dominating in Japan, the Seibu Lions posted Kikuchi ahead of the 2019 campaign. The Mariners had long been seen as a strong fit for the left-hander, and on the final day of 2018 word broke that the Mariners had got their man. Kikuchi had agreed to an initial three-year, $43MM deal with Seattle that came with a $13MM player option, as well as a four-year club option that promised Kikuchi an additional $66MM. Kikuchi would have a challenging start to life in the big leagues, working to a 5.39 ERA over 41 starts across the 2019-20 seasons. He did find some form in 2021 though, working to a 4.41 ERA over 157 innings. That was enough for Kikuchi to decline his player option but not enough for Seattle to exercise their four-year club option, so Kikuchi hit the open market and found a new home in Toronto ahead of the 2022 season.

  • 2014: The Reds acquire outfield Marlon Byrd from the Phillies in exchange for pitcher Ben Lively.

After back-to-back playoff appearances the Reds took a step back in 2014, finishing 76-86. With a solid core still under contract GM Walt Jocketty made a move to bolster their offense, acquiring the veteran Byrd from the rebuilding Phillies. Byrd was owed $8MM in 2015, and the Phillies chipped in for half of that. In exchange, they got Lively, a promising young pitcher in the Reds system. He’d go on to make 20 starts for Philadelphia between 2017-18 but would be claimed off waivers by the Royals in 2018, and last pitched in the big leagues in 2019. The 37-year-old Byrd would hit .237/.286/.448 with 19 home runs across 96 games, but the Reds would fall well out of contention and wound up flipping him to the Giants in August of that year.

  • 2013: The Astros sign veteran reliever Jesse Crain to a one-year, $3.25MM deal.

The 2013 Astros lost 111 games, and were deep in the midst of their rebuild. 2014 saw the emergence of some of the core players that become building blocks over the next decade or so in Houston, and the team clearly felt some veteran leadership wouldn’t hurt in the young clubhouse. The then-31-year-old Crain had been a solid reliever for a number of years in Minnesota, but had blossomed into an elite relief arm over the previous three seasons for the White Sox. Between 2011-13, he’d throw 150 innings of 2.10 ERA relief for Chicago. Unfortunately for Houston, Crain would land on the injured list in spring training as he recovered from off-season surgery and he wouldn’t throw a single pitch for the Astros, or any other team in the big leagues after that 2013 season.

  • 2012: The Royals sign 38-year-old veteran Miguel Tejada to a minor league deal

Tejada had been a force for a number of years for the Orioles and Athletics, winning the AL MVP award in 2002. Yet by the time the Royals agreed to a minor league deal with the veteran shortstop, his star had well and truly waned. Tejada’s last MLB season came in 2011 when he hit .239/.270/.326 for the Giants, and he’d spent the 2012 season playing at Triple-A. Yet he made it onto the Royals’ big league roster in 2013, appearing in 53 games and hitting .288/.317/.378. He’d suffer a calf injury that looked set to end his season, but a 105-game ban following two positive drug tests ended his season, and he wouldn’t play in the big leagues again.

  • 2011: The Padres acquire outfielder Carlos Quentin from the White Sox for minor leaguers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.

The 2011 White Sox finished a disappointing 79-83, and felt comfortable sending their All Star outfielder, and California native, Quentin out west. The 29-year-old had been worth 2.5 fWAR the previous season, and netted the White Sox a pair of young pitchers. Unfortunately for Chicago, Castro would throw just 6 2/3 innings of relief for them, while Hernandez would be torched for eight earned runs in four innings in a solitary start for the team. For the Padres, Quentin would be productive when he could stay on the field, slashing .268/.368/.498 over 168 games in his first two seasons. His knee would continue to cause problems, and a disappointing 2014 would be his last appearances in the big leagues.

  • 2010: The Orioles sign veteran Derrek Lee to a one-year contract.

In his prime, Lee had been a hugely productive hitter for the Cubs and Marlins, finishing third in MVP voting in 2005. Those numbers were dwindling, but Lee was still putting up solid enough numbers in 2010 that the Orioles felt comfortable giving him a $7.25MM salary for the 2011 season. He struggled to a .246/.302/.404 line with 12 home runs over 85 games with the Orioles that year. With Baltimore in the midst of a losing season, they sent him to Pittsburgh at the deadline, and Lee would hit .337/.398/.584 over 28 games down the stretch for the Bucs, before retiring at the end of the year.

  • 2009: The Cubs sign Marlon Byrd to a three-year deal and the Phillies sign Danys Baez to a two-year pact.

The first of Byrd’s two NYE transactions would come at the end of 2009, as the Cubs added him on deal that’d pay him $15MM over the next three years. Byrd would go to the All Star game in his first season in Chicago, slashing .293/.346/.429 with 12 home runs over 630 plate appearances as the Cubs finished 75-87. A wretched start to the 2012 season (3-for-43) would see him traded to the Red Sox in April of that year, the final year of his three-year contract. Baez had shifted around the big leagues a fair bit prior to landing in Philadelphia, appearing for five teams over eight years and working to a combined 4.04 ERA. The Phillies signed him to a two-year, $5.25MM deal, but Baez struggled significantly, working to a 5.48 ERA in his first year and a 6.25 ERA in his second. The Phillies released him in August, 2011, and he wouldn’t pitch in the big leagues again.

  • 2004: The Yankees bring back veteran Tino Martinez on a one-year, $3MM deal.

Martinez played 1,054 games for the Yankees between 1996 and 2001, winning four World Series rings in that time before they replaced the first baseman with Jason Giambi. He’d played the previous year for the Devil Rays, but after they declined his $8MM option, the Yankees swooped in to add him as cover for the player that replaced him. The 37-year-old Martinez wound up playing in 131 games that year for the Yankees, and while he wasn’t the same offensive threat as a few years prior, he still posted a respectable .241/.328/.439 line with 17 home runs as the Yankees went 95-67 in 2005. The Yankees declined their $3MM option for 2006, and Martinez retired.

Share Repost Send via email

MLBTR Originals

33 comments

Which Remaining Free Agent Hitters Were Shifted The Most In 2022?

By Darragh McDonald | December 30, 2022 at 10:36pm CDT

It was announced back in September that Major League Baseball would be implementing some new rules for the 2023 season. One such change will be the limiting of defensive shifts, with teams required to have two infielders on each side of second base and all four on the near side of the outfield grass at the time the pitch is released.

The exact ramifications of these changes will be discovered as the 2023 season progresses, but the hope is that some routine grounders turn into hits instead. Those players who have been shifted the most could stand to reap the most benefit from the new environment. The prototypical example of the hitter that is the most harmed by the shifts has been a plodding and pull-happy left-hander who can be neutralized by having an infielder in deep right field. However, each player is unique and will have been attacked in different ways, so let’s look at the data, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances required to be considered here. Which free agents were shifted the most in 2022? (Quick note that Stephen Vogt has been excluded since he previously announced 2022 would be his last season.)

1.  Rougned Odor – 93.8%
2. Kole Calhoun – 93.4%
3. Zack Collins – 88.9%
4. Brett Phillips – 88%
5. Brandon Belt – 85.2%
6. Mike Ford – 84.6%
7. Jed Lowrie (as a lefty) – 83.5%
8. Robbie Grossman (as a lefty) – 82.6%
9. Michael Perez – 81.8%
10. Mike Moustakas* – 81%
11. Tommy La Stella* – 80.5%
12. Josh VanMeter – 79.7%
13. Luke Voit – 76.9%
14. Colin Moran – 75%
15. Adam Duvall – 71.7%
16. Gary Sánchez – 70.5%
17. Dominic Smith – 70.4%
18. Jackie Bradley Jr. – 64%
19. Jurickson Profar (as a lefty) – 63.8%
20. Didi Gregorius – 60.3%

(* – Moustakas and La Stella technically aren’t free agents right now. However, they were both recently designated for assignment and are likely to be released given their onerous contracts.)

Odor has been quite awful at the plate recently, with his batting average finishing at .207 or below in each of the past four years. However, his batting average on balls in play has been at .244 or below in each of those seasons, well below his earlier career marks and the .290 league average in 2022. Perhaps the shift bans could get him closer to his earlier career number when he hit between .259 and .271.

Belt hit .285/.393/.595 over 2020 and 2021, good enough for a wRC+ of 162 which trailed only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper among all MLB hitters in that time. He was actually shifted more in those two seasons than he was in 2022. Injuries limited him to just 78 games and tepid production this year, but perhaps better health and some more open space on the field could help him return to being one of the best hitters in the league.

As for the rest, some of these guys are role players or aging veterans, but a few of them could be sneaky value pickups in the latter half of the offseason. Like Belt, many of them are coming off disappointing and/or injury-marred years and will be looking to bounce back in 2023. Grossman posted a 118 wRC+ over 2020 and 2021 but just an 82 this year. Voit had a 153 wRC+ in the shortened 2020 season but dipped to 112 and 102 in the past two campaigns. Duvall had a 108 wRC+ over 2019-2021 but an 87 here in 2022. Sánchez recorded a 143 wRC+ in his first two seasons but just a 96 in the following five years, including an 89 in the most recent campaign. Smith posted a huge 150 wRC+ over 2019 and 2020 but has slid to just 82 since. Profar is coming off a decent campaign and is arguably the best free agent still unsigned.

Share Repost Send via email

2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Adam Duvall Brandon Belt Brett Phillips Colin Moran Didi Gregorius Dominic Smith Gary Sanchez Jackie Bradley Jr. Jed Lowrie Josh VanMeter Jurickson Profar Kole Calhoun Luke Voit Michael Perez Mike Ford Mike Moustakas Robbie Grossman Rougned Odor Tommy La Stella Zack Collins

69 comments

Big Hype Prospects: Moreno, Ortiz, Casas, Perez, Rafaela

By Brad Johnson | December 30, 2022 at 3:17pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we catch up on some pre-holiday shopping.

Five BHPs In The News

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 267 PA, 3 HR, 7 SB, .315/.386/.420

Moreno headlined the Diamondbacks return in the Daulton Varsho trade. FanGraphs describes him as “the most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.” Last season, Moreno continued to put his contact skills on display. A brief 73 plate appearance trial in the Majors yielded a high batting average and tiny 11.0 percent strikeout rate. He generally produces modest exit velocities with a low angle of contact. In plain english, power isn’t a big part of his game, but he’ll be a valuable hitter all the same. He’ll need to make substantial adjustments to ever become a regular 20 homer threat.

There are questions about his ability to carry a full workload given that he’s never topped 350 plate appearances in a season. He’s considered an above average defender with sufficient athleticism to improve. With Carson Kelly still in-house, the Diamondbacks can consider platooning Moreno between catcher and designated hitter while working on his durability.

Luis Ortiz, 23, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA

The lightbulb clicked for Ortiz partway through the 2022 campaign. His command improved as he became more aggressive with his domineering stuff leading to a successful 10 inning stint in Triple-A followed by 16 more frames in the Majors. Given his lack of Triple-A experience, it’s understandable why the Pirates have gone out of their way to delay Ortiz’s arrival via the signings of Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill. Ortiz has impressive Statcast measurables. Health permitting, he’s on pace to soon form a potent one-two punch with Roansy Contreras in the Pirates rotation.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Virtually everybody in baseball is ready to see Casas sink or swim as the Red Sox first baseman of the present and future. The only barrier entering this offseason was a certain veteran. Removing Eric Hosmer from the roster ensures manager Alex Cora won’t have to juggle any difficult decisions. Casas had a mixed 95 plate appearance debut last season, showing power and discipline but posting a poor .197 batting average. In this case, his .208 BABIP appears especially fluky. If anything, his batting profile is that of a high-BABIP hitter. Some of his at bats felt like he was selling out for contact (my personal observation, not that of a scout), a common “mistake” among debut hitters. Look for him to further refine his approach and consistency in 2023.

Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)
75 IP, 12.72 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 4.08 ERA

On the shortlist with Andrew Painter for most exciting teenaged pitching prospect, Perez is one of the reasons the Marlins are shopping Major League starting pitchers. He’s on pace to arrive in the second half of 2023. Scouts laud his excellent fastball command and biting slider. He’s a skyscraper of a man whose very size ensures a unique look. Scouts believe his changeup can develop into a weapon as well. His curveball is seen as a less competitive offering that can play up based on the effectiveness of his other pitches.

It’s worth mentioning this is the organization that, a decade ago, jumped a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez straight from High-A to the Majors. Of course, none of those decision-makers remain on hand, making it highly unlikely we see a repeat with Perez.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 522 PA, 21 HR, 28 SB, .299/.342/.539

The Red Sox are reportedly shopping their prospects for upgrades with Rafaela serving as the most-highly valued of the bunch. Rafaela wasn’t a consensus top prospect in the Red Sox system prior to last season. Now he’s widely considered their third-best farmhand behind Marcelo Mayer and Casas. He displayed a tantalizing mix of power and speed last season, though there are still worrisome signs with his offensive stats. He lacks discipline and carries a high swinging-strike rate. Hitters who thrive with the Javy Baez profile are few and far between.

Should his discipline and whiff issues become an impediment, Rafaela has super utility man potential. He’s presently being trained as a center fielder. He also played 12 games at shortstop last season and has prior experience at second and third base. He’s considered an above average outfielder. I do not have reports on his infielding acumen.

Three More

Corbin Carroll, ARI (22): Although there was little doubt Carroll would start for the 2023 Diamondbacks, the Varsho trade all but ensures an Opening Day role. A line drive machine with excellent discipline in the minors, Carroll had a mixed debut. His 130 wRC+ in 115 big league plate appearances belied below average exit velocities and merely average discipline. Look for those traits to dramatically improve throughout 2023.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Another “winner” of the Varsho trade, Fletcher no longer has an entire squadron of outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart. Should Alek Thomas continue to struggle and Jake McCarthy suffer a sophomore slump, then Fletcher might just worm his way into the Arizona lineup. Likelier, he’ll serve as trade bait. The Diamondbacks still need pitching depth.

Kumar Rocker, TEX (22): Kumar made his debut in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 14 innings with mixed results. His 18 strikeouts were encouraging, but they were offset by 12 walks and a 4.50 ERA. He appeared in the news this last week in connection to Carlos Correa’s delayed contract with the Mets. New York selected Rocker in the first round of the 2021 draft only to back out of their deal over concerns with his physical.

Share Repost Send via email

Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Ceddanne Rafaela Eury Perez Gabriel Moreno Luis Ortiz (Pirates) Triston Casas

91 comments

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Michael Wacha Sign?

By Simon Hampton | December 30, 2022 at 2:45pm CDT

With Nathan Eovaldi agreeing to a deal with the Rangers, the top remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market (per MLBTR’s rankings) is Michael Wacha. In fact, Wacha is the only remaining starting pitcher left from the Top 50 free agents.

As things stand, the Orioles are the only known team to have checked in on the 31-year-old, who’s coming off his best season in a while for the Red Sox. Wacha made 23 starts for Boston last season, working to a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings. That mark did come with a fairly pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate, and a solid 6% walk rate. Further, his .260 opponent BABIP suggests a bit of good fortune was involved, and sure enough Wacha’s FIP sat at 4.14 for the season. Nonetheless, it was a far more improved showing than in recent times for Wacha.

Between 2020-21, Wacha tossed 158 2/3 innings for the Mets and Rays, working to a 5.39 ERA. Those two seasons came with better strikeout rates, but his HardHit% were comfortably the highest of his career, as were his home run rates.

Wacha was once a highly touted prospect in the Cardinals system. Drafted 19th overall in 2012, Wacha made his big league debut as a 21-year-old in 2013. Over his first three seasons, he’d toss 353 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, and picked up the 2013 NLCS MVP award for his efforts in that series against the Dodgers. He was never a big strikeout pitcher, but kept the ball on the ground enough, limited the walks and induced enough soft contact to be a highly effective starter.

Those three seasons turned out to comfortably be Wacha’s best, and since the 2016 campaign he’s hurled 800 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball. He’s signed one-year deals the past three seasons, but that solid campaign last season could well see him get a modest two-year guarantee this winter. MLBTR predicted a two-year $16MM pact for Wacha and there certainly seems a good chance he matches that at least, particularly given how well starting pitching has done in free agency this winter.

As for who could be interested, the Orioles are not only the only reported team to have checked in (though there have surely been others), but they do make a lot of sense as well. They have been linked to a number of mid-tier starters this winter, and signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM pact. Still, the backend of their rotation has a few options but most are light on MLB experience and adding someone like Wacha would provide them with a bit more stability.

The Angels and Padres were both linked to Eovaldi before he signed with the Rangers, so it makes sense to take a look at them as possible fits for the next best option. The Angels have a pretty solid five-man rotation, with Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Anderson at the top, and southpaws Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez rounding it out. LA has often worked with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload though, and Wacha could fit in nicely as another starting option for them.

The Padres, too, appear to have the foundations of a starting five in place, but like the Angels could do with a sixth option. Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are locked in to the first three spots, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo penciled in to fill out the rotation. Reports have suggested San Diego plans to utilize the latter two as starters, but both have typically worked as relievers recently, so adding Wacha could give them some insurance against those two failing to lockdown a starting spot.

A return to Boston could also be an option. They do have Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock lined up to handle the starting duties. Yet Sale and Paxton have had a wretched run of injuries (and the team is reportedly listening to offers on Sale), while Whitlock has fared much better in the bullpen. Youngster Brayan Bello is also an option to join the rotation at some point, so there’s not a clear need to add someone like Wacha, but it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he did wind up back in Boston.

While those three teams all have ambitions to compete in 2023, Wacha could also be a fit on rebuilding teams. Even if it requires a two-year deal to sign him, a rebuilding club could hope that he builds off his solid 2022 campaign and turns himself into a valuable trade chip either at the deadline or next winter. At worst, it’s unlikely it’d be an onerous commitment to sign him and even if he doesn’t pitch himself into a trade chip he could still work as an innings-eater for a rebuilding team with a younger roster.

In that case, perhaps a team like the Reds could be amenable to bringing him in if the price is right. Luis Cessa is the veteran in the Reds’ rotation as things stand, but he’s typically worked as a long reliever. Outside of Cessa, it’s a young rotation for all of uncertainty, and adding a veteran like Wacha could solidify things and take a bit of the pressure off their younger arms.

There’s a fair few other possible fits, and any of the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox could make some sense. Where do you see Wacha signing this winter?

Where Will Michael Wacha Sign?
Baltimore Orioles 17.09% (1,999 votes)
Boston Red Sox 15.43% (1,805 votes)
St Louis Cardinals 10.64% (1,245 votes)
Los Angeles Angels 7.77% (909 votes)
San Diego Padres 5.00% (585 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 3.80% (445 votes)
Chicago Cubs 3.54% (414 votes)
Minnesota Twins 3.38% (395 votes)
Cincinnati Reds 2.38% (279 votes)
San Francisco Giants 2.29% (268 votes)
Atlanta Braves 2.27% (266 votes)
Pittsburgh Pirates 2.21% (258 votes)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2.08% (243 votes)
Washington Nationals 2.06% (241 votes)
Philadelphia Phillies 1.95% (228 votes)
Detroit Tigers 1.87% (219 votes)
Chicago White Sox 1.78% (208 votes)
Kansas City Royals 1.62% (189 votes)
New York Yankees 1.52% (178 votes)
Texas Rangers 1.44% (168 votes)
New York Mets 1.26% (147 votes)
Oakland Athletics 1.25% (146 votes)
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.10% (129 votes)
Milwaukee Brewers 1.10% (129 votes)
Cleveland Guardians 1.06% (124 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 1.04% (122 votes)
Seattle Mariners 0.97% (113 votes)
Houston Astros 0.96% (112 votes)
Colorado Rockies 0.78% (91 votes)
Miami Marlins 0.38% (45 votes)
Total Votes: 11,700
Share Repost Send via email

Free Agent Market MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Michael Wacha

58 comments

Which Teams Are Slated To Pay The Luxury Tax In 2023?

By Darragh McDonald | December 29, 2022 at 12:48pm CDT

The highest number of teams to pay the competitive balance tax in a single season is six, which occurred in 2016 and 2022. It’s possible that 2023 could be a record-breaking season in that regard, as Roster Resource currently has six teams already over the $233MM base threshold, while the Dodgers are a rounding error away from the line and another handful of teams not too far off.

These numbers are still unofficial, especially considering the arbitration salaries are mostly still estimates. Teams can also change their status by making trades throughout the year, either adding or subtracting from their ledger, but consider this a rough snapshot of where things currently stand.

Top Tier – CBT Above $293MM

The Mets are not just beyond the top CBT tier, they’re on another planet. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he doesn’t care too much about what it costs to put a competitive team together, with their payroll currently projected for $376MM and a CBT figure of $390MM. They are currently slated to pay over $116MM in taxes alone, which is more than the total 2023 payroll of 11 teams.

CBT Between $273MM and $293MM

The Yankees are alone in this tier, but are just barely under the top threshold. Roster Resource currently has their CBT figure at $291.8MM, giving them very little room for further additions without going over. If they stay above the $273MM line, both the Yankees and Mets will see their top pick in the 2024 draft moved back by 10 spots. Both the Mets and Dodgers were more than $40MM above the base threshold in 2022, meaning their top draft picks will be moved back in the upcoming draft.

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

CBT Between $233MM and $253MM

The Phillies, Braves and Blue Jays are currently in this group, with the Phils ahead of the other two at $251MM. The Phillies also paid the tax in 2022, setting them up to be a second-time payor. That means they are currently set to be taxed at a 30% rate, with that rate jumping to 42% for spending that goes over the $253MM line.

Both the Braves and Blue Jays would be paying the tax for the first time in their respective histories, putting them each in line for a 20% tax rate on spending over the line. The Jays are only a hair over right now, with Roster Resource calculating their number at $233.2MM, with Atlanta at $240MM.

Just Under The $233MM Threshold

The Dodgers are currently calculated for a CBT figure of $232.9MM, just barely under the lowest line. It’s been rumored they would like to limbo under the line in order to reset their status, since that would allow them to go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor. Doing so will be a challenge at this point unless they move something off their books.

A few other teams are within range of the Dodgers and could have to start thinking about the tax line if they make another significant signing or trade. The Rangers and Angels are each at $220MM, the Cubs at $214MM, the Red Sox $212MM, Astros at $209MM, Giants at $208MM and White Sox at $205MM.

Share Repost Send via email

Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals New York Mets New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Toronto Blue Jays

260 comments

Free Agent Profile: Adam Duvall

By Darragh McDonald | December 29, 2022 at 10:46am CDT

Thanks to a busy month of December, most of the top free agents from this offseason are off the board, assuming the Carlos Correa deal with the Mets eventually gets over the finish line. From MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, only three remain unattached: Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin and Michael Wacha. That means that teams still looking for upgrades will have to sift through the remainders, looking for talent that other clubs have overlooked.

One interesting candidate who deserves a look is Adam Duvall, who hasn’t been written about on MLBTR since August. If any teams have interest in him, it hasn’t been leaked to the public yet. It’s not especially shocking that his market has been quiet to this point. His 2022 was cut short in July when he required season-ending wrist surgery. He also limped to a .213/.276/.401 line in the first few months of the season while striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. That production was 13% below league average, as indicated by his 87 wRC+.

That’s certainly not an ideal platform for a trip into free agency, but there are still things to like about Duvall. The plate discipline issue has always been there, as he has a career 6.7% walk rate and has never finished a season above 8.7%. He’s struck out in 28.5% of his career trips to the plate and has been at 25.8% or above in each season of his career. For reference, this year’s league averages were an 8.2% walk rate and 22.4% strikeout rate. However, he’s always paired that with tremendous power, topping 30 home runs in a season three times. He also hit 16 in the shortened 2020 season and 12 this year prior to being shut down.

He’s also considered to be a strong defensive outfielder. He’s tallied 58 Defensive Runs Saved on the grass in his career, 28 Outs Above Average and has a 22.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His DRS and UZR slipped to below average in 2022, but OAA still was quite bullish, placing him in the 88th percentile in the league. His arm strength placed in the 78th percentile, his outfielder jump in the 74th and his sprint speed 67th.

If 2022 showed Duvall’s profile at its worst, 2021 showed how valuable it can be. He struck out in 31.4% of his plate appearances and walked in only 6.3% of them, but he launched 38 home runs, stole five bases, led the National League in RBIs with 113 and provided excellent defense. He got a 9.9 from UZR, 19 DRS and +4 OAA. That DRS figure was tied with Michael A. Taylor for best in the league among all outfielders while the UZR score was in the top five. That was primarily corner outfield work, but 210 2/3 innings out of his 1155 total innings came in center field. He was awarded the National League Gold Glove award for right field. All told, FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement for the year.

Duvall is now 34 years old and coming off a down year, both in terms of health and performance. It would be easy to roll one’s eyes at the idea of a team bringing him aboard and giving him a significant role. However, the pickings in free agency are getting slim and every player still out there is going to have flaws in one way or another. Duvall likely won’t earn a tremendous salary in free agency due to his struggles this year, but he has the ability to provide strong corner outfield defense while playing center field on occasion. His plate discipline isn’t great but he has tremendous power. It’s also possible that the upcoming shift bans will boost his batting average by a few points, since he was shifted in 71.7% of his plate appearances this year despite hitting right-handed. Even with his struggles at the plate in 2022, he was still worth 0.9 fWAR in 86 games before the wrist issue put him out for the second half. He isn’t likely to kill you in a platoon capacity either, as his career splits aren’t drastic, with a 101 wRC+ against lefties and a 94 otherwise. For a team looking for a low-cost flier to find some sneaky value this late in the offseason, they could do much worse.

Share Repost Send via email

Free Agent Profiles MLBTR Originals Adam Duvall

82 comments

Which Free Agents Remain For Teams Seeking Rotation Help?

By Anthony Franco | December 28, 2022 at 5:52pm CDT

With the holiday slowing down what had become a very rapid offseason, it works as a natural point to take stock of what players clubs could target in the coming weeks. On Monday, MLBTR looked through the remaining free agent relievers coming off the best 2022 campaigns (one of whom has since signed a major league deal). Now we’ll take stock of the rotation options who are still out on the open market.

There aren’t as many starting pitchers for clubs to sort through as there were bullpen targets, with 19 remaining hurlers who tallied at least 20 rotation innings this past season. We’ll look at the top half of that group by various metrics to determine who teams figure to prioritize as they seek starting pitching depth.

Note: all figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters.

ERA (league average — 4.05)

  1. Johnny Cueto (RHP), 3.29
  2. Michael Wacha (RHP), 3.32
  3. Wade Miley (LHP), 3.34
  4. Bryan Garcia (RHP), 3.54
  5. Zack Greinke (RHP), 3.68
  6. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), 4.02
  7. Zach Davies (RHP), 4.06
  8. Aníbal Sánchez (RHP), 4.28
  9. Drew Hutchison (RHP), 4.52

Strikeout rate (league average — 21.6%)

  1. Chase Anderson (RHP), 24.6%
  2. Matt Swarmer (RHP), 22.4%
  3. Bryan Garcia, 20.2%
  4. Michael Wacha, 20.2%
  5. Chris Archer (RHP), 19.2%
  6. Wade Miley, 18.4%
  7. Zach Davies, 17.9%
  8. Chad Kuhl (RHP), 17.8%
  9. Mike Minor (LHP), 16.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.1 percentage points)

  1. Michael Wacha, 14.2 points
  2. Matt Swarmer, 13.1 points
  3. Dylan Bundy (RHP), 11.1 points
  4. Chase Anderson, 10.6 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 10.5 points
  6. Wade Miley, 9.2 points
  7. Michael Pineda (RHP), 9 points
  8. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), 9 points
  9. Zach Davies, 8.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 42.5%)

  1. Wade Miley, 54.2%
  2. Aaron Sanchez, 51.3%
  3. Chase Anderson, 50.9%
  4. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), 50.2%
  5. Jared Koenig (LHP), 47.2%
  6. Chris Archer, 43.7%
  7. Zach Davies, 42.9%
  8. Johnny Cueto, 42.5%
  9. Zack Greinke, 41.3%

FIP (league average — 4.04)

  1. Johnny Cueto, 3.76
  2. Wade Miley, 4.00
  3. Zack Greinke, 4.03
  4. Michael Wacha, 4.14
  5. Chase Anderson, 4.37
  6. Chris Archer, 4.49
  7. Aaron Sanchez, 4.61
  8. Dylan Bundy, 4.66
  9. Zach Davies, 4.83

Innings pitched

  1. Johnny Cueto, 153 1/3
  2. Dylan Bundy, 140
  3. Zack Greinke, 137
  4. Chad Kuhl, 137
  5. Zach Davies, 134 1/3
  6. Michael Wacha, 127 1/3
  7. Chris Archer, 102 2/3
  8. Mike Minor, 98
  9. Drew Hutchison, 89 2/3
Share Repost Send via email

MLBTR Originals Aaron Sanchez Anibal Sanchez Bryan Garcia Chad Kuhl Chase Anderson Chris Archer Dallas Keuchel Devin Smeltzer Drew Hutchison Dylan Bundy Jared Koenig Johnny Cueto Matt Swarmer Michael Pineda Michael Wacha Mike Minor Wade Miley Zach Davies Zack Greinke

40 comments

The Top Remaining Free Agents

By Darragh McDonald | December 28, 2022 at 1:30pm CDT

The current offseason has been one of the busiest in recent years. Over the past few seasons, it wasn’t uncommon for a few of the top free agents to linger on the open market after the calendar had flipped over to a new year. That won’t be the case this year, as today’s agreement between Corey Kluber and the Red Sox means that 46 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are off the board, including all of the top 32.

However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t still some notable players still out there. Below is a list of some of the most intriguing names on the open market for clubs still hoping to make upgrades to their roster before Opening Day. The number next to the player’s name represents their placement on the MLBTR top 50 list.

Quick caveat that some of those free agents have reached agreements with clubs that are not official. This wouldn’t normally be worth mentioning, as those deals end up getting completed in the vast majority of cases. However, the Carlos Correa situation has shown that it’s not impossible for a deal to fall through after being agreed upon. He and the Giants agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal but their physical examination raised concerns about the status of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets, whose physical raised similar concerns. The deal is still not official but the latest reporting suggests that Correa will likely still end up a Met, though perhaps with some extra provisions in the contract.

33. Jurickson Profar

Profar, 30 in February, has had a mercurial career but he’s coming off a solid season. He hit 15 home runs, walked in 11.1% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 15.7% of them. Outs Above Average wasn’t keen on his left field defense but Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both thought it was above average.

Profar isn’t a superstar but he succeeds in enough different ways to be useful. FanGraphs pegged him as being worth 2.5 wins above replacement in 2022. It’s also possible that the upcoming shift limitations benefit his contact-based approach. He opted out of his deal with the Padres, which would have seen him make $7.5MM in 2023. By taking the $1MM buyout instead, he just needs to find $6.5MM in free agency to break even. MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $20MM deal.

39. Andrew Chafin

Over the past six years, Chafin has been one of the best relievers in the sport, with his left-handedness only making him more appealing. He has a 3.05 ERA in that time, striking out 26.9% of batters faced, walking 8.8% of them and getting grounders on 48.7% of balls in play. That includes a nightmare 2020 season in which he posted a 6.52 ERA in 9 2/3 innings.

He could have stuck with the Tigers for 2023 on a $6.5MM salary but declined his player option and returned to free agency. MLBTR predicted that to be a wise decision, pegging him for a two-year, $18MM deal. He’ll turn 33 in June.

40. Jean Segura

Somewhat similar to Profar, Segura is a guy who does a lot of things well but isn’t really elite at anything. Over the last six seasons, his wRC+ has been between 105 and 111 in five of them, the lone exception being a dip to 91 in 2019. He hit between 10 and 14 home runs in the past five full seasons. Though he posted bigger stolen base totals earlier in his career, he’s been between nine and 13 in the past three full campaigns. He doesn’t walk much but doesn’t strike out much either. Defensively, he can play shortstop in an emergency but is essentially a full-time second baseman, with advanced metrics generally considering him above average there. He was predicted for two years and $18MM. He’ll turn 33 in March.

41. Michael Wacha

Wacha, 31, posted ERAs of 4.76, 6.62 and 5.05 in the previous three seasons but got that mark down to 3.32 in 2022. That was encouraging but might not be entirely sustainable. His .260 BABIP and 80.3% strand rate surely helped him offset a pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground ball rate. He did avoid the free passes, however, limiting them to a 6% rate, and was in the 70th percentile in terms of hard hit rate.

Injuries have prevented him from cracking 130 innings in any of the past five seasons but he’s still capable of producing solid work at the back of a rotation. He was predicted for a two-year deal worth $16MM.

Honorable mentions

The bottom of MLBTR’s top 50 list also featured many “honorable mentions” that are still available. Those that are still free agents are listed below in alphabetical order.

HM: Elvis Andrus

Andrus, 34, was miserable at the plate from 2018 to 2021 but is coming off a nice bounceback. He hit 17 home runs in 2022 and finished with a batting line of .249/.303/.404 for a wRC+ of 105. He also stole 18 bases and was considered an above-average defensive shortstop by Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.

HM: Brandon Belt

Belt, 35 in April, produced a batting line of .285/.393/.595 over 2020 and 2021. That production was 62% above league average, as evidenced by his 162 wRC+. Only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper were ahead of him in that department, among hitters with at least 550 plate appearances.

2022, however, saw him battle knee injuries all season long and hit .213/.326/.350 for a wRC+ of 96. He eventually underwent season-ending knee surgery in September, the third knee surgery of his career. That makes him a high-risk, high-reward play, as he’s occasionally been one of the best hitters on the planet but injuries often derail his productivity.

HM: Johnny Cueto

Cueto, 37 in February, is coming off his strongest season in years. He tossed 158 1/3 innings for the White Sox in 2022, his highest such tally since 2016. His 3.35 ERA was also his lowest since that time, outside of a 3.23 mark over a nine-start showing in 2018. His 15.7% strikeout rate this year was well below average but he kept his walks to a 5.1% rate and was good at limiting hard contact.

HM: Shintaro Fujinami

Fujinami, 29 in April, is a real wild card in free agency. He debuted in Japan’s NPB as a teenager back in 2013 and seemed to be cementing himself as a star. He posted a 2.40 ERA over 199 innings in 2015 as a 21-year-old. However, serious control problems have derailed him since. In 2021, he walked 16.8% of batters faced, helping him produce a 5.21 ERA on the year. He made gains in 2022, getting his walk rate down to 7.6% and his ERA to 3.38. He was posted by the Hanshin Tigers and is eligible to sign with MLB teams, who would have to also pay a posting fee to the Tigers on top of what they pay Fujinami.

HM: Michael Fulmer

Fulmer, 30 in March, won the American League Rookie of the Year in 2016 by making 26 starts with a 3.06 ERA. His results slipped in subsequent seasons and Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2019 campaign entirely. He’s since moved to a bullpen role and thrived. He made 67 appearances in 2022 with a 3.39 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 35.4% ground ball rate. Those rate stats are all fairly underwhelming, but Fulmer’s best attribute is limiting damage. He was in the 91st percentile in 2022 in terms of barrel rate, 61st percentile in terms of hard hit rate and 55th in average exit velocity.

HM: Zack Greinke

Greinke is now 39 and isn’t the ace he once was, but he’s still got a knack for keeping runs off the board. He posted a 3.68 ERA across 137 innings and 26 starts in 2022. His 12.5% strikeout rate was barely half the league average but he kept walks down to a 4.6% rate and had a 60th percentile barrel rate.

HM: Evan Longoria

Longoria, 37, has slowed down with age, last reaching 90 games played in a season back in 2019. However, he’s still been productive at the plate when healthy enough to step up to it. In 589 plate appearances over the past two seasons, he hit 27 home runs and slashed .252/.333/.466 for a wRC+ of 118.

HM: Trey Mancini

Mancini, 31 in March, was excellent in 2019, hitting 35 home runs and producing a batting line of .291/.364/.535 for a 132 wRC+. A battle with colon cancer wiped out his 2020 but he was able to make an inspiring return in 2021. Over the past two years, he’s hit .247/.323/.412 for a wRC+ of 104. That’s a drop from his 2019 form but still above average, and he’s also considered an above-average defender at first base who can move to the outfield corners on occasion.

HM: Matt Moore

Moore, 34 in June, was once a highly-touted prospect and had a few good years as a starter for the Rays about a decade ago. That was followed by years marred by injuries and underperformance, but a full-time move to the bullpen led to an excellent 2022. He made 63 relief appearances with the Rangers, posting a 1.95 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate.

HM: Gary Sánchez

Sánchez, 30, earned a reputation as a bat-first catcher when he hit 53 home runs over 2016 and 2017. His batting line over that two-year stretch was .284/.354/.568 for a wRC+ of 143. He’s since cooled off at the plate, posting a 96 wRC+ in the five seasons since, including an 89 in 2022. Despite that tepid platform year at the plate, his previous production should still lead to some interest. He also posted average or better numbers on the defensive side of his game in 2022.

Share Repost Send via email

2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

125 comments

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2022 at 4:45pm CDT

The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each
Share Repost Send via email

2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Alex Colome Alex Young Andrew Chafin Aroldis Chapman Brad Hand Bryan Shaw Caleb Smith Chasen Shreve Craig Stammen Daniel Norris Darren O'Day David Phelps Garrett Richards Hirokazu Sawamura Hunter Strickland Jackson Stephens Jacob Barnes Joe Smith Luis Perdomo Luke Weaver Matt Moore Matt Wisler Michael Fulmer Noe Ramirez Ralph Garza Ross Detwiler Steve Cishek T.J. McFarland Will Smith Wily Peralta

88 comments
« Previous Page
Load More Posts
Show all
    Top Stories

    Tigers, Tarik Skubal Likely Headed To Arbitration Hearing With $13MM Gap In Filing Figures

    Yankees’ Offer To Bellinger Reportedly Above $30MM AAV

    2026 Arbitration Tracker

    18 Players Exchange Filing Figures

    Phillies To Meet With Bo Bichette

    Pirates Sign Ryan O’Hearn

    Cubs Acquire Edward Cabrera

    Rockies To Sign Michael Lorenzen

    Blue Jays Continuing To Pursue Kyle Tucker

    Angels Sign Kirby Yates

    Dodgers, Braves Among Teams To Show Interest In Freddy Peralta

    Join The Beta Test For The New Trade Rumors iPhone App

    Athletics Sign Tyler Soderstrom To Seven-Year Extension

    Giants Sign Tyler Mahle

    Royals Extend Matt Quatraro

    Blue Jays Sign Kazuma Okamoto

    Kona Takahashi To Return To NPB For 2026 Season

    Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai

    Yankees Have Reportedly Made Offer To Cody Bellinger

    Cubs Sign Hunter Harvey

    Recent

    Tigers, Tarik Skubal Likely Headed To Arbitration Hearing With $13MM Gap In Filing Figures

    Yankees’ Offer To Bellinger Reportedly Above $30MM AAV

    MLB Has Had Internal Conversations About In-Season Tournament

    2026 Arbitration Tracker

    18 Players Exchange Filing Figures

    Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    Rangers Sign Patrick Murphy To Minor League Deal

    Mariners Avoid Arbitration With Arozarena, Gilbert

    Reds, Brady Singer Avoid Arbitration

    Brewers Hire Thad Levine As Special Advisor

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Every MLB Trade In July
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • 2025-26 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • Front Office Originals
    • Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag
    • 2025-26 Offseason Outlook Series
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version