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MLBTR Originals

Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer

By Brad Johnson | June 24, 2022 at 6:50pm CDT

This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422

When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.

Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.

C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507

Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.

Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.

The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427

Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.

As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440

The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.

In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531

A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.

There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.

Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.

Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.

Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.

Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Anthony Volpe Brett Baty CJ Abrams Eury Perez Gunnar Henderson Jeter Downs Joey Wiemer Noelvi Marte Oneil Cruz Zac Veen

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Trade Candidate: Michael A. Taylor

By Darragh McDonald | June 19, 2022 at 10:27pm CDT

At the end of September last year, as the season was winding down, Michael A. Taylor was about a week away from hitting free agency. The Royals, however, were determined to prevent that from happening and gave him a $9MM extension that would keep him around for another two years.

Taylor has never really done too much with his bat, finishing the 2021 season with a career batting line of .239/.293/.386 for a wRC+ of just 79. But the Royals were surely motivated to lock him up because of his tremendous defense. Taylor ended up finishing first among MLB center fielders in the Fielding Bible’s voting for 2021. His 15 Outs Above Average last year were the second-most in all of baseball, trailing only Manuel Margot’s 16. His 19 Defensive Runs Saved were also second in the league, trailing only the 20 racked up by Carlos Correa. His 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was easily the best, well ahead of Matt Chapman’s 8.7.

Kansas City making defense a priority made sense for a couple of reasons. First, the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium make it so that defense is always important for the team. Secondly, the rebuilding club was set to feature a number of young and inexperienced pitchers, making any extra outs very important for building confidence and limiting workloads.

However, Taylor has bucked his career trends in a couple of ways here in 2022. For one thing, he’s having easily the best year of his career in terms of his bat. Through 47 games, he’s got an 11.2% walk rate, a great improvement over his 7% career mark. Similarly, he’s striking out in 22.4% of his plate appearances, well below his 29.9% career rate. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .272/.355/.401, which amounts to a wRC+ of 119. Prior to this year, Taylor’s wRC+ has been 80 or below in every season except for a 104 back in 2017.

But on the other hand, his defense doesn’t seem to be quite as elite as last year, at least in the eyes of the advanced metrics. OAA currently has him at 1 for the season, DRS at 3 and UZR at -0.2. Defensive metrics are notoriously fickle, meaning it’s possible that this is just small sample noise. Though Taylor is also 31 years old now, making it possible that 2021 was a peak that he’s started to come down from.

The Royals have a record of 23-42, one of the worst in the league, lining them up to be clear sellers at this year’s trade deadline. Taylor doesn’t absolutely have to be traded since his contract goes through 2023. The Royals could keep him around for another year and hope that they have better luck next year in their attempts to transition from rebuilding to contending. But there’s also an argument to be made that Taylor’s value is at its peak. He’s never been hitting anywhere near this level before and there’s a chance his excellent defensive skills have started to wane.

There’s also the possibility that two months of improved results with the bat won’t compel any team to part with significant prospects that would entice the Royals to pull a trigger on a trade. But then again, teams in search of help in center field don’t have a lot of options. Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds have been constantly in trade rumors over the past year, but their respective teams have apparently been steadfast in maintaining high asking prices in any trade discussions. The Marlins have reportedly been making a strong push for Ramon Laureano, but without successfully getting the A’s to budge thus far. There aren’t many options beyond that group that are both exciting and available.

Coupled with that low supply is strong demand. The Marlins have been trying to upgrade in center field for a long time but without finding a deal to their liking. The Brewers just cut ties with Lorenzo Cain, leaving them with Tyrone Taylor and Jonathan Davis as their center field tandem. Cody Bellinger has rebounded from his nightmare 2021 but is still having a below-average season at the plate. The Astros and Phillies are getting okay results this year from Chas McCormick and Odubel Herrera, respectively, but could still look to supplement there. Perhaps the Yankees will look to bump Aaron Judge back into a corner outfield role to reduce his daily wear and tear. There’s also the possibility some team that doesn’t strictly need a center fielder just wants one to give their regular outfielders some occasional down time.

The Royals will have a decision to make between now and the August 2 trade deadline. Do they hang onto Taylor for another year or try to cash him in for some prospects while his value is high? Even if they lean towards the former option, it’s possible that the market forces push some team into making them an offer that makes them change their mind.

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Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate Michael A. Taylor

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Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Harris, De La Cruz, Brash, Valera

By Brad Johnson | June 18, 2022 at 7:17am CDT

This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)

(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573

Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.

His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.

Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.

Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)

70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537

To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.

Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.

It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.

Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)

222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594

If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.

A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.

Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.

Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)

19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9

Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.

Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.

George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)

236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513

Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.

Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.

Five More

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.

Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.

Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Elly De La Cruz George Valera Gunnar Henderson Matt Brash Michael Harris II

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Trade Candidate: Brandon Drury

By Darragh McDonald | June 15, 2022 at 9:21am CDT

Very little has gone right for Cincinnati Reds in 2022. The club entered the season with hopes of competing, but those hopes were on shaky footing due to some cost-saving moves over the winter that softened the depth of the roster. Once the season began, the injury bug bit them hard, putting pressure on that depth, which the roster hasn’t been able to withstand. Their record is currently 23-39, ahead of just Washington among National League clubs. One small silver lining in all this, however, is that these injuries created an opening for Brandon Drury, who is having the best season of his career.

Drafted by Atlanta in the 13th round in 2010, Drury was sent to the Diamondbacks as a prospect, as part of the deal that sent Justin Upton the other way. He made his big league debut with Arizona in 2015 and showed some promise over his first few seasons. From 2015-2017 with the Snakes, he got into 289 games and hit 31 home runs, slashing .271/.319/.448. That wasn’t elite production, with his wRC+ actually coming in slightly below average at 95, but still encouraging for a player in his age 22-24 seasons. He also provided the Diamondbacks with defensive versatility, as he spent time at every infield position and the outfield corners.

There was enough there to intrigue the Yankees, who acquired Drury prior to the 2018 season. Unfortunately for them, this was the beginning of what would end up being a miserable three-year stretch for him. Drury dealt with blurred vision and migraines, which caused him to miss time and struggle to the point that the Yankees optioned him to the minors. While he hit well on the farm, he struggled mightily in the majors, hitting .176/.263/.275 in 18 games with the Yanks.

Despite those struggles, the Blue Jays decided to take a chance on him, acquiring him from the Yankees in the J.A. Happ trade, ending Drury’s time with the Yanks after just a few months. After just eight games with the Canadian birds, Drury faced another setback, breaking his hand and heading to the injured list again. In 2019, Drury was able to stay healthy but still struggled, hitting .218/.262/.380 for a 66 wRC+ in 120 games. In 2020, the struggles got even worse, with Drury hitting .152/.184/.174 in 21 games, producing a wRC+ of -10 and getting designated for assignment toward the end of the season.

Despite that abysmal three-year stretch, the Mets decided to take a flier on him, signing him to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 campaign. After the big league club suffered a pile of injuries to their position player mix, they called on Drury in May, who was having a nice showing in Triple-A. He would end up holding himself well in a utility role, playing 51 games while taking the field at first, second and third base, as well as the outfield corners. He hit .274/.307/.476 for a wRC+ of 114 in 88 plate appearances. Despite that solid showing, he was designated for assignment as the season was winding down in October.

A similar situation played out for Drury this year, as he signed a minor league deal with the Reds in March. A slew of injuries created a need for Drury, who has taken the opportunity and ran with it. He’s now played 53 games with the Reds, just beyond his total with the Mets last year. However, it’s clearly been a full-time role this time around, as his 218 plate appearances more than double his 88 from last year. In that time, he’s hit 12 home runs, a number bested by only 12 other National League hitters this year. His overall slash is .269/.335/.508 for a wRC+ of 129. He’s already produced 1.4 wins above replacement this year, according to FanGraphs, with almost two-thirds of the season still remaining. This doesn’t seem to just be good luck either, as his .297 BABIP on the year is just barely ahead of his .294 career mark, and his Statcast page has plenty of those healthy red hues. Defensively, Drury has largely played second and third, helping the club cover for extended absences from Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas, though he’s also made cameos at shortstop and first base.

Taking all of this into consideration, Drury’s true nature is very difficult to peg. A pessimist could point to his dismal stretch from 2018-2020 and dismiss this year’s showing as a small-sample hot streak. He’s also a mere rental, as he began this season with 5 years and one day of service time. Since he cracked Cincy’s Opening Day roster, he will just barely eclipse six years at the end of this season. But on the other hand, he showed enough promise earlier in his career for three different teams to trade for him, clearly demonstrating that this breakout was considered possible in the past. Now he’s delivering on that promise and should hold plenty of appeal to competing teams, especially those with budgetary constraints. The financials of Drury’s deal weren’t reported at the time, though his Baseball Reference page lists his salary as the $700K league minimum.

What Drury also has going for him as a trade candidate is his versatility. Since he can play multiple infield spots, there are potentially many teams who could fit him into their plans. The Angels have gotten very little out of their middle infield this year and could slot Drury in at second base. Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia have both struggled mightily, leaving the White Sox with the keystone as an obvious area to upgrade. The Dodgers love adding underrated bench players and have watched Justin Turner slouch through most of the season so far. Alec Bohm is still struggling in Philly, and since they’ve gone over the luxury tax for the first time, Drury’s low salary could be extra appealing to them. It’s also possible that an injury to an infielder creates a need on a team that didn’t previously have one, like when this week’s Ozzie Albies injury suddenly created a huge hole at second base in Atlanta. Though one team that almost certainly won’t be in the mix is the Blue Jays, as Drury is apparently unvaccinated and isn’t eligible to cross the border. Drury won’t complete remake any of these teams on his own, but role players like this can sometimes have huge impacts. Last year’s marquee deadline trade sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, but the Braves won the World Series after acquiring lesser-known players like Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario.

Even if Drury does garner interest at the deadline, it likely won’t lead to a massive return. Strong season aside, he’s got enough warts on his resume to prevent acquiring teams from shelling out any kind elite prospect package. Still, for the Reds to get any kind of trade return out of a player who signed a minor league deal when Spring Training was already underway, that’s one nice development in a season that hasn’t had too many.

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Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate Brandon Drury

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The Other Potential Trade Candidate In The Athletics’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | June 14, 2022 at 10:42am CDT

For much of the offseason, all talk on the Athletics centered on where the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas would head once the trade market picked up. We got answers to four of those five, with only Montas surviving the offseason teardown. That’s expected to be temporary, as Montas stands out as one of the most prominent trade targets on the summer market. Arguably the best arm who’ll be available this summer, Montas will dominate headlines over the next seven weeks. However, while Montas is understandably the highest-profile trade target on the Oakland roster, he’s not the only starter on whom the A’s will receive trade interest.

Paul Blackburn | Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Fans would be forgiven if Paul Blackburn isn’t someone who’s been on their radar — or even if Blackburn is entirely unfamiliar. The 28-year-old right-hander came into the 2022 season with a 5.74 ERA in 138 career innings at the MLB level. He’d accrued two years of big league service already, but much of that was time spent on the injured list. Blackburn missed time in 2018 with a forearm strain and then with a tendon issue in his elbow (lateral epicondylitis). In his two years of service, he’s appeared in just 30 total games — 27 of them starts.

Blackburn, however, has come out of the gate strong so far in 2022. His 66 1/3 innings already represent a career-high in the big leagues, though he’s surpassed 140 total frames in a season several times when combining his Triple-A and Major League work, so workload management shouldn’t be a major concern. So far, in 12 starts, the former No. 56 overall draft pick (Cubs, 2012) has pitched to a sterling 2.31 ERA. Blackburn doesn’t miss many bats, evidenced by a sub-par 17.9% strikeout rate, but he’s also issued walks to just 5.7% of his opponents and induced grounders at an excellent 51.3% clip.

There’s surely some degree of good fortune at play for Blackburn, who’s currently benefiting from a .253 average on balls in play, an 80.5% strand rate and a tiny 6.0% homer-to-flyball ratio. Even with some expected regression on those marks, ERA alternatives like FIP (3.13), xFIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.91) all feel there’s some legitimacy to the idea that Blackburn has pitched like a capable mid-rotation starter thus far.

Statcast largely agrees, crediting Blackburn with a 3.36 “expected” ERA based on his lack of free passes and the generally poor quality of contact his opponents make. Hitters have posted an average exit velocity of just 87.4 mph against Blackburn (league average is 88.8 mph), and just 3.6% (seven total) of the balls hit against him have been considered “barrels” by Statcast — less than half the league average (7.7%).

It’s tempting to assume that Oakland’s cavernous home park has played a significant role in suppressing Blackburn’s ERA, and perhaps it has to an extent, but it’s not clearly reflected in his home/road splits. Blackburn’s two “worst” starts of the season (four runs apiece) have come at the Coliseum, in fact, and he’s sporting a 4.39 ERA at home against a nearly spotless 0.91 ERA in 39 2/3 innings on the road this season. Oakland’s spacious dimensions help any pitcher on the mound from time to time, but Blackburn isn’t the frequently seen case of a pitcher who excels at the Coliseum and is regularly hit hard on the road.

Blackburn doesn’t have overpowering stuff by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s at least worth pointing out that he’s made some velocity gains and altered his pitch usage so far in 2022, which certainly seems to have contributed to his improved results. The right-hander’s sinker sat at 90.4 mph from 2017-20 before climbing to an average of 91 mph in 2021, and it’s now up to 91.9 mph so far in 2022.

Blackburn is also throwing his curveball at a career-high 17.8% rate — and getting outstanding results. He’s thrown 172 curves this season (already a career high) and finished 44 plate appearances with the pitch; opponents have just three hits (all doubles) and 19 strikeouts (43.2%) in those 44 plate appearances. FanGraphs’ run values credit Blackburn with the fifth-most valuable hook in MLB this year (min. 50 innings pitched), trailing only Kyle Wright, Shane McClanahan, Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez. Among pitchers in that subset who actually throw a curveball regularly, Blackburn’s has been the most valuable on a strictly per-pitch basis.

There’s an easy case to be made for the A’s simply hanging onto Blackburn even if (or when) they trade Montas. While both are controllable beyond the current season, Montas is a free agent after the 2023 campaign and will see his $5MM salary jump close to $10MM next year. His trade value won’t ever be higher than it is over the next few weeks. Blackburn, however, is controlled for three more years beyond the current campaign. The A’s may well decide that’s enough value to hang onto him — particularly if the offers aren’t all that aggressive given the right-hander’s lack of track record prior to the 2022 season.

At the same time, money was the general driving force behind Oakland’s offseason teardown, which stripped the payroll to just under $50MM — second-lowest in all of Major League Baseball ahead of only the rebuilding Orioles. The A’s don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2023, so payroll should be less of a concern than ever, but Blackburn will reach arbitration for the first time this winter and see his salary jump from its current $710K to somewhere north of $2MM. Oakland will have to spend at least some money on a few players, and Blackburn seems like a solid, affordable option to plug into the rotation at least for the next couple seasons. There’s also a bit of “found money” appeal to the idea of getting a potentially decent return for a starting pitcher who cleared waivers in Feb. 2021 and was barely on the big league radar prior to the 2022 season

It’s unlikely that the A’s will aggressively shop Blackburn, but controllable pitching is the most coveted resource at the trade deadline, so teams will at least inquire about the right-hander’s availability. And the A’s, in the midst of their most aggressive step-back in years, aren’t likely to take any player off the table unless they can control him for five or six more years. That’ll likely lead to some conversations about Blackburn and perhaps about lefty Cole Irvin as well — though Irvin is controllable for an extra year over Blackburn and has some more questionable secondary marks to go along with rather glaring home/road splits. Blackburn, of course, isn’t the ace that his rudimentary ERA currently suggests, but contending clubs need capable innings to round out the middle or back-end of their rotation as well, and he certainly appears capable of filling that role for the foreseeable future.

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MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Paul Blackburn

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Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

By Steve Adams | June 13, 2022 at 7:11pm CDT

This year’s Aug. 2 trade deadline is just over seven weeks away, and while some names won’t become obvious candidates to move until five or even six weeks from now, others have been evident for more than a year. That’s more true of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras than arguably any player in baseball. There may not be a likelier player to get traded this summer, and the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. The Cubs looked like probable deadline sellers heading into the 2021 season, and Contreras’ fate looked clear when Chicago sold off Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, among others. Some fans might’ve held out hope for an extension that would make Contreras the centerpiece of the next contending Cubs core, but no long-term deal came to fruition.

From both the player and team vantage point, Contreras’ current career year has come at the perfect time. He’s hitting .267/.394/.506 with 10 home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 213 trips to the plate. By measure of wRC+, the only catcher who’s been more productive (min. 100 plate appearances) is Willson’s own brother, William, who is having a breakout campaign over in Atlanta. Willson’s 10 homers are tops among catchers, and he’s on pace for career-highs in several offensive categories. A pending free agent couldn’t ask for a much better walk year, and the Cubs have to be thrilled to see him producing like this at a time when league-wide catcher offense hasn’t been this bad since 2002.

Contreras has acknowledged that a trade appears to be his likely fate at this point, and it’s more a question of when and where than whether it’ll happen at all. Since a trade feels far likelier than not, let’s take some time and run through the possible landing spots for Contreras over the next several weeks.

Obvious Fits

Astros: The only team in Major League Baseball that has gotten worse production from behind the plate is the Orioles, who entered the year trying to lose and have since watched their top prospect struggle upon his initial call to the big leagues. Martin Maldonado has posted an awful .153/.225/.277 batting line, while backup Jason Castro has somehow been even worse at .102/.206/.136. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this week that the Astros will likely stick with Maldonado despite the complete lack of offense, declining framing marks and increasingly frequent passed balls. The rationale appears to be that Maldonado’s leadership and game-planning skills are too valuable.

That piece, however, did not acknowledge the possibility that the Astros can still go ahead and acquire Contreras, pushing Maldonado to a backup role and jettisoning Castro from the roster. There’s no justification for a supposed World Series hopeful to trot out a pair of catchers that has combined to hit .141/.221/.241 this season. Houston has other needs, be they in center field or at first base where Yuli Gurriel’s bat has cratered, but Astros catchers have been 63% worse than league-average at the plate (by measure of wRC+). Whatever intangible value Maldonado may be providing with his game-planning, he’s giving a lot of it back at the dish. And, again, it’s eminently possible to keep Maldonado on the roster and still install Contreras as the everyday catcher.

Mets: James McCann hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $40.6MM contract in the first place, and he’s currently on the injured list for the foreseeable future owing to a fractured hamate bone that’ll sideline him into July. McCann should be back in action by the time the trade deadline rolls around, but he’s hitting just .196/.266/.286 on the season anyhow and hamate injuries can have lingering effects on a hitter’s production even after they’re cleared to return.

It’s in the Mets’ best interest to get McCann sorted out at some point, but they have two years left to figure that out (or to find a way to unload the contract). Backups Tomas Nido (.245/.277/.274) and Patrick Mazeika (.186/.205/.326) haven’t provided any offense whatsoever in McCann’s absence. Taking on Contreras pushes McCann to a backup role and deepens the lineup considerably — both this summer as the Braves continue to heat up and climb in the standings and in the postseason, when they’ll be facing off against better pitching than they see during the regular season.

Giants: Buster Posey abruptly retired following a resurgent 2021 season, and former No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart hasn’t been able to seize the opportunity as the Giants’ new starter just yet. Optioned to Triple-A last after hitting .156/.296/.300 through 108 plate appearances, Bart could still eventually sort things out and solidify himself as the Giants’ catcher of the future. For now, however, they’re relying on career backup Curt Casali and journeyman Austin Wynns, whom they acquired from the Phillies last week.

The Giants are a deep-pocketed club with a $162MM payroll that’s nowhere near their franchise record and an improved farm system. General manager Scott Harris, formerly an assistant general manager with the Cubs, is plenty familiar with Contreras and all he can bring to the table.

Payroll Concerns

Rays: Only a hair better than the Astros in terms of their overall production, Tampa Bay catchers are batting a combined .169/.195/.305 this season. Mike Zunino’s defense remains highly regarded, but he’s having the worst season of his career at the plate (.148/.195/.304). Backup Francisco Mejia has been a bit better at the plate but much worse behind it.

It’s an open question as to whether the Rays, whose current $83MM payroll sadly constitutes a franchise-record mark, would receive ownership support to take on Contreras and the remainder of his salary. The Cubs could perhaps be persuaded to include some cash to cover some or all of the salary, but doing so on their end would require the Rays to part with a steeper prospect package. The Rays, as always, have a deep system and could afford to make such a move. Perhaps they could sell the Cubs on taking back the remainder of the recently optioned Ryan Yarbrough’s $3.85MM salary to help balance things out a bit. (Chicago could certainly use some more pitching depth.) Specific names aside, there aren’t many more obvious fits for Contreras than Tampa Bay.

Padres: Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro have combined to bat .239/.298/.326 while logging every inning for the Padres at catcher this season. San Diego has top catching prospect Luis Campusano hitting well in Triple-A, so perhaps the most straightforward path to an upgrade is simply to promote him to the big league roster.

That, paired with the fact that the Friars are just inches below the new $230MM luxury-tax threshold, makes them a tough fit. There’s a clear on-paper need for the Padres to improve their production behind the dish, but the also have needs in the outfield corners and/or at first base, and the bandwidth to take on Contreras doesn’t seem to be there. The Cubs aren’t going to take on Eric Hosmer or another weighty contract in a deal like this, and asking Chicago to pick up all of the remaining tab on Contreras would only up the price.

Guardians: Austin Hedges is one of the best defensive players in baseball, regardless of position … but one of the sport’s worst hitters as well. Maybe Cleveland simply wouldn’t be interested in displacing Hedges and his potential Gold Glove, but it’s hard to look at his .175/.233/.283 batting line and not wonder how the Guardians’ lineup would look upon swapping that out for Contreras and his aforementioned .267/.394/.506 slash. And, as with the Astros, the Guards could certainly keep Hedges as a defensive-minded backup, pushing Bryan Lavastida back to Triple-A and probably pushing Luke Maile off the roster.

Cleveland’s payroll is just under $70MM right now, and one would think that leaves more than enough room to add veterans at the deadline. But payroll has been a major issue in recent seasons, and it’s not clear whether they’ll be close enough to a playoff spot to make a move like this — or whether they’d be willing to part with long-term value for a rental who’d immediately be their second-highest-paid player.

Wait and See

Yankees: The Yankees have received surprising production from trade acquisition Jose Trevino, who’s batted .309/.356/.505 and already matched his career-high five home runs in just 104 plate appearances. Trevino came to the Yankees as a lifetime .245/.270/.364 hitter, however, so it’s fair to be a bit skeptical of his ability to sustain this pace. He’s not striking out much but also isn’t making much in the way of hard contact, either. The trade deadline is still six weeks out, and if Trevino regresses toward his career levels of production, then the Yankees figure to be in this market, particularly with Kyle Higashioka again struggling at the plate.

Mariners: Seattle was getting career-best production from Tom Murphy before he landed on the injured list with a dislocated shoulder. He’s since suffered a setback, and it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to return. Prospect Cal Raleigh is doing his best Zunino impression in place of Murphy, striking out in a third of his plate appearances while showing good power and strong defensive marks. Raleigh, 25, has a .168/.252/.411 batting line with seven long balls in 107 plate appearances. If he can find some more consistency and/or if Murphy can get on track for a return, the Mariners might not feel the need to make this type of move. Beyond that, the M’s have cooled after a hot start and are 4.5 games back from a Wild Card position and six games under .500. They’re close enough to act as buyers right now, but that outlook could change in the coming weeks.

Marlins: Miami hoped to have addressed its catching need this winter when acquiring Jacob Stallings, but he’s hitting .206/.271/.255 in his first season with the Fish. Even more problematic is the team’s overall performance against southpaws: an MLB-worst .205/.280/.315. The Marlins are a fringe contender at the moment and probably have bigger needs even if they were to make a push at the deadline.

Longer Shots

White Sox: The Sox are already paying Yasmani Grandal $18.25MM, and while the resulting .185/.294/.237 batting line can’t sit well with the organization, there’s no indication to this point that they’re prepared to take on a notable veteran like Contreras and push Grandal into the role of MLB’s highest-paid backup. It’d be interesting to see another chapter entered into the story of crosstown Chicago blockbusters, though. The Sox didn’t get what they were hoping for when acquiring Craig Kimbrel last summer, but the prior North Side/South Side swap sent Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez to the Sox for Jose Quintana.

Twins: Minnesota’s focus at the trade deadline is going to rightly be pitching help — both in the bullpen and in the rotation — but their catchers have been a middle-of-the-pack unit, at best. Gary Sanchez leads the team in plate appearances at designated hitter and has hit better as a DH than as a catcher. But the Twins feel he’s been better than his reputation with the glove, and they’ve used the DH spot as a means of giving several players off — including Byron Buxton. Sure, the lineup would be deeper and better with Contreras catching, Sanchez at DH and Ryan Jeffers as a backup catcher, but this isn’t going to be a priority.

Red Sox: Christian Vazquez has posted a solid, if unremarkable .271/.315/.374 batting line in 168 plate appearances this season, but neither of Boston’s backup options (Kevin Plawecki, Connor Wong) have provided any offense at all. This doesn’t feel all that likely, as Boston probably has bigger needs to consider when the deadline rolls around — assuming they hang onto (or remain within striking distance of) their current No. 3 Wild Card spot in the American League.

—

Contreras has been the best all-around catcher in baseball this offseason, so you could make the argument that he can/should be shoehorned into just about any contender or fringe contender’s lineup. But when looking at the combination of legitimate playoff chances, pure need behind the plate and realistic ability to facilitate a trade of this nature (based on luxury tax, farm system, payroll), it’s hard to look past the Astros, Mets, Rays and Giants as the best fits for a short-term splash behind the plate.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Willson Contreras

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The Marlins’ Underappreciated Slugger

By Steve Adams | June 13, 2022 at 11:04am CDT

The Marlins are 7-3 over their past ten games, though the resulting 27-31 record still lands them 11 games out of first place in the National League East and 5.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. Starting pitching, as one would expect for a team with this type of rotation talent, has helped to drive the recent surge. Arguably the biggest catalyst in Miami’s recent surge, however, has been the first baseman/outfielder who’s carried the offense of late: Garrett Cooper. The Marlins recently placed Cooper on the Covid-19-related injured list, but he was hitting .500/.548/.714 through 31 plate appearances amid their recent uptick in play.

Garrett Cooper | Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

If Cooper’s production happened to be a complete anomaly, perhaps it wouldn’t bear much of a mention. Players go on hot streaks all the time, after all. But while Cooper can’t be expected to continue hitting .500 over any meaningful sample, the recent burst should help to shine a light on the fact that the 31-year-old is among the game’s most underrated bats and has been for some time now. Cooper’s sweltering June isn’t any sort of breakout from a slow start to the year; he entered the month hitting .277/.360/.426 and now, after a recent string of six consecutive multi-hit games, is up to .315/.389/.473 on the year.

By measure of wRC+, Cooper has been about 47% better than a league-average hitter so far in 2022 (after weighting for park and league) — his fourth year as a regular in the Marlins’ lineup and his fourth with above-average overall production. Cooper was a solid hitter back in 2019 (.281/.344/.446, 15 home runs, 111 wRC+), but that came in the juiced-ball season, making it easy to overlook the manner in which he established himself. Since that time, he’s maintained a solid walk rate while hitting for average and showing above-average power. The output has come during the shortened 2020 season and an injury-plagued 2021 campaign, which may have prevented it from getting the attention it should have, but Cooper has been one of baseball’s best hitters on a rate basis dating back to 2020.

In that time, Cooper ranks 20th among 265 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances) with a 138 wRC+. He’s hitting .295/.377/.476 during that stretch. Of the 19 hitters ranked above him, 17 are former All-Stars, with the exceptions being Kyle Tucker and Ty France — both likely (or at least deserving) 2022 All-Stars. The top 30 names on that leaderboard represent a veritable who’s who of baseball’s most notable bats, with Cooper quietly lumped into the middle of the group. However, it’s unlikely many would think of Cooper when trying to list off the game’s most productive hitters. He may not even be the first Marlin to spring to mind for most, not with Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s outstanding showing so far in 2022.

The lack of recognition for Cooper may not be that difficult to explain. He plays for a Marlins team that struggles to draw fans to the park and has just one winning season since 2010 (when they reached the expanded playoffs with a 31-29 record in the shortened 2020 campaign). Cooper hasn’t produced at this level over the course of a full big league season yet — though his production since 2020 has come over the life of 594 plate appearances, which is nearly a full year’s worth of reps. He also missed time with both a lumbar strain and an elbow sprain last year and has only appeared in 100 games in a season once.

It’s tempting, then, to wonder whether Cooper’s production is fluky in nature or attributable to small sample sizes. That doesn’t appear to be the case. The league-average exit velocities over the past three seasons have been 88.4 mph, 88.8 mph and 88.7 mph, respectively. Cooper, in  that time, has posted respective exit velos of 90.1 mph, 91.1 mph and 91.6 mph. His 47.2% hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls at 95 mph or more) trounces the league average of 38.3%. He’s “barreled” 10.7% of his batted balls in that time, per Statcast — handily topping the 7.8% MLB average.

There’s a platoon split of note with regard to Cooper, but that’s not to say he is or should be considered a platoon player. Rather, it’s just that since 2020, the right-handed-hitting Cooper has been a very good hitter against fellow righties (.279/.370/.437) and one of the very best in the game against lefties (.336/.398/.575). He’s been a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence regardless of opponent.

Although Cooper has only connected on four home runs through 211 plate appearances so far this season, one could still argue that the 2022 campaign has been his best yet. This year’s 23.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and his 15 doubles are one off the career-high 16 he smacked in 2019 — in more than twice as many trips to the plate. Cooper is sporting a .403 batting average on balls in play this year, and while that’s sure to regress to an extent, there’s no reason it should be expected to plummet to the .288 league average. Cooper entered the year with a career .362 BABIP, and even though it’s fair to be skeptical he can sustain quite that level, a player with Cooper’s hard-contact profile should carry a BABIP considerably greater than that of the average hitter. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average in 2022 at .301 — only 14 points lower than its current mark.

Meanwhile, only 10.8% of Cooper’s fly-balls have left the yard for homers this year — a mark well shy of the 21.6% rate at which he entered the season. His 2022 rate will likely begin to move closer to that career level, meaning his slugging can reasonably be expected to tick upward even as his average likely moves south.

At 6’5″ and 235 pounds, Cooper’s defensive options are limited to first base and the outfield corners. He’s rated poorly on the grass (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -5 Outs Above Average in 615 career innings), but defensive metrics view Cooper as a sound, if unspectacular option at first (4 DRS, 5 OAA, 2.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1157 innings). With Jesus Aguilar also on the roster, Miami has given Cooper plenty of time at designated hitter, too.

Aguilar has a 2023 mutual option and will likely be a free agent at season’s end — mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties — which at least ostensibly opens the door for Cooper to step in as the everyday first baseman in 2023 That could happen even sooner, if Aguilar is moved on this summer’s trade market. Then again, Cooper himself figures to see his name pop up in trade rumblings, at least if the Marlins aren’t able to further close the gap in the Wild Card standings.

Cooper himself is only controlled through the 2023 season, and with his 32nd birthday looming in December, he’s something of a late bloomer relative to other big leaguers. The Marlins would surely love to keep his bat in the lineup now that they’ve turned more toward a win-now approach, but Cooper’s bat should be a coveted attribute this summer as contending clubs look to beef up their lineups. Because of the time missed due to injury, Cooper’s arbitration price hasn’t built up too extensively; he’s earning an eminently reasonable $2.5MM in 2022. That makes him affordable for any team, and the advent of the universal designated hitter will only further broaden Cooper’s market.

There’s no guarantee the Marlins will seriously entertain offers on Cooper — or on any of their veteran players, for that matter. They’re by no means completely out of the playoff picture, and with 10 of their next 13 games coming against divisional opponents (three in Philadelphia and seven against the Mets), they have a very immediate opportunity to climb the NL East ladder and make things more interesting.

A poor showing, however, will have the opposite effect and will only magnify the pressure to at least listen on some short-term veterans. And while rental bats like Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz, Willson Contreras, Trey Mancini and Andrew Benintendi will draw more headlines as the trade deadline looms, Cooper might draw more actual trade interest, given his affordable salary, extra year of club control and comparable (if not superior) production.

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Garrett Cooper

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Marlins Have Been Rewarded For Hanging Onto Pablo Lopez

By Anthony Franco | June 10, 2022 at 7:43pm CDT

There was a bit of offseason speculation about the possibility of the Marlins trading right-hander Pablo López in an attempt to balance the roster. Miami had a surplus of starting pitching but a lackluster offense, and multiple reports indicated they could deal from their rotation to address the lineup.

That didn’t really wind up transpiring, aside from Miami including depth arm Zach Thompson in the deal that brought back Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. Otherwise, the Fish signed Sandy Alcantara to a long-term extension and held onto López, Elieser Hernández and their collection of highly-touted younger arms. Perhaps general manager Kim Ng and her staff wish they’d more aggressively shopped Hernández given the magnitude of his struggles thus far, but holding onto López certainly looks to have been the right call.

The Venezuelan-born righty has quietly been one of the sport’s better arms for the past few years. López was an unspectacular back-of-the-rotation starter for his first two seasons, but he elevated his game during the shortened 2020 campaign. López posted a 3.61 ERA while striking out batters at a solid rate for the first time, a promising 11-start showing he’d hope to replicate or improve upon over a full schedule. He was well on his way to doing so last season, pitching to a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 27.1% strikeout percentage and an excellent 6.1% walk rate in 101 frames through July.

Unfortunately, López suffered a right rotator cuff strain around the All-Star Break. That injury cost him virtually the rest of the season, as he only returned for a 1 2/3 inning appearance during the final weekend of the year — long after the Marlins had been eliminated from postseason contention.

Perhaps the shoulder issue complicated whatever efforts Miami might’ve made to deal him over the winter. Potential acquiring teams may not have valued him as highly as they’d had a few months before because of the health uncertainty. Maybe Ng and her staff never would’ve seriously entertained dealing López anyways, viewing him as the kind of rotation building block that could get the club back to contention. Whatever the case, López has picked up right where he’d left off pre-surgery, putting him on track to earn his first career All-Star nod.

Across 11 starts, the 26-year-old has a 2.18 ERA while averaging six innings per appearance. That’s the 10th-lowest ERA among 87 pitchers with 50+ innings entering Friday, and he finds himself in the top 30 in both strikeout/walk rate differential (19th at 19.5 percentage points) and ground-ball rate (26th at 46.8%). López has induced swinging strikes on 13.7% of his offerings, the highest rate of his career and the #11 mark league-wide. He’s freezing hitters for a fair number of called strikes, and batters are making less contact than ever when they have swung.

López has seen velocity drops on both his fastball and cutter relative to last season, perhaps a moderate concern given the shoulder issue. He’s averaging 92.8 MPH on his four-seam, a middling number that’s down a tick from the 94.1 MPH average he’d owned before last year’s surgery. His cutter is down three MPH, although that could be a deliberate alteration to generate more two-plane movement. Whether intentional or not, the slower cutter has been a better swing-and-miss pitch than last season’s harder but shorter version.

More than anything, however, the changeup is the key to López’s success. That pitch has continued to thrive. He’s always had a plus offspeed offering, but he’s using it more and with greater success than ever. López is throwing his changeup a career-high 37.5% of the time, a virtual equal rate to his four-seam fastball usage. Among starters, only Tyler Anderson and Shane McClanahan has gotten hitters to swing through the pitch more often, per Statcast. The changeup has continued to be an elite weapon even as López has more frequently featured it in his arsenal.

As he’s doubled down on his 2021 success, the 6’4″ hurler will be of plenty of interest to pitching-needy contenders in advance of the August 2 trade deadline. Nothing forces the Marlins to seriously consider offers, of course, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday they currently “have no plans” to trade López.

That’s no surprise, as Miami sits only four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They’ve started just 25-30 and would have to climb four teams to get into playoff position, but they’ve also outscored opponents by 21 runs on the year. Winning eight of nine games over the last-place Nationals certainly helps, but the Fish entered 2022 intending to compete and could point to their run differential to argue they’re better than their record indicates. Regardless, they’re close enough to the Wild Card race it’d be more eye-opening if they were planning to move López at the moment.

If the team struggles over the next six weeks, perhaps they’d reconsider that course of action, but there’s no pressing contractual urgency to make a deal. López is playing on a modest $2.45MM salary, and he’s controllable via arbitration through 2024. The asking price on two and a half years of cheap control for a starter of this caliber would be astronomical if the Fish were to make him available at all.

That won’t stop other clubs from inquiring if Miami fades in the standings, and one could argue the plethora of young arms on the horizon and the injury risk associated with any pitcher should lead Ng and her staff to be genuinely open to offers. It isn’t hard to find recent examples — the Tigers with Matthew Boyd, the Orioles with John Means, etc. — of teams holding firm to high asking prices on controllable starters, only to see those pitchers lose much of their trade value to injury or performance regression. The Marlins would no doubt prefer to have López taking the hill for meaningful games in Miami than see him don another uniform, though, and Heyman’s report makes it seem even likelier he’ll remain in South Florida for the foreseeable future.

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Pablo Lopez

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Big Hype Prospects: Lowe, Kwan, Kirby, Moreno, Baz

By Brad Johnson | June 10, 2022 at 2:09pm CDT

This week, we check in two players making their debut, another on the cusp of return, and two others who have mixed results.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Josh Lowe, 24, OF, TBR (AAA)

125 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .291/.368/.527

Lowe began the season in the Majors where he struggled with strikeouts en route to a .188/.257/.344 triple-slash. Upon returning to Triple-A, Lowe immediately dealt damage with his bat. He blasted four home runs in his first 46 plate appearances, but they came at the cost of 21 strikeouts (45.7% K%). Since then, Lowe’s exploits at the plate have been less emphatic. He’s hitting .300/.380/.443 with seven doubles and one home run over 79 plate appearances. The good news – and the reason for this update – is his strikeout rate has steadily declined. He’s done particularly well over his last 12 games, striking out just once every five plate appearances.

Although Lowe hasn’t socked many home runs lately, he’s still hitting plenty of doubles. The improvements to his strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s ready to return to the Majors. The Rays don’t have an odd man out among their position players. However, they’re currently carrying 14 pitchers and will need to trim down to 13 on June 19. Unless Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco make a miraculous recovery from their injuries, Lowe will be the most impactful position player already on the 40-man roster.

Steven Kwan, 24, OF, CLE (MLB)

171 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .271/.368/.368

Kwan was a revelation during the first week of the season. He has a preternatural ability to avoid missing pitches. His 2.1 percent swinging strike rate not only leads the league, it leads all player seasons since Marco Scutaro’s heyday. Unfortunately, all strengths are also weaknesses. In Kwan’s case, he rarely makes hard contact. Among qualified hitters, he ranks fifth-worst in hard contact rate, sixth-worst in average exit velocity, and second-worst in max exit velocity. Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw, and Tony Kemp are the most-similar hitters by contact quality. Kwan has recently dropped to the bottom of the Guardians lineup amid all these softly-hit baseballs.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, even if the result of that contact isn’t anything special. He has a 12.3 percent walk rate compared to a seven percent strikeout rate. To put this in context, I sorted all player seasons of 150 or more plate appearances over the last decade by walk rate minus strikeout rate. Thus far, Kwan’s debut ranks seventh-best. Appearing ahead of him are Yandy Diaz (2022), Juan Soto (2020, 2021), Joey Votto (2017), Jose Ramirez (2022), and Tommy La Stella (2020). While most of the players on this list are superstar sluggers, a few names like Luis Arraez and Eric Sogard are also present. Kwan seemingly fits in this tier of player.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)

32 IP, 3.38 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 0.84 BB/9

On the surface, Kirby is having a fantastic debut. After skipping Triple-A entirely, he’s contributing above average outings to a Mariners club desperate to recapture their 2021 swagger. There are some causes for concern, namely the bluish hue of his Statcast metrics. Kirby has been plagued by loud contact. He hasn’t yet felt the sting – at least not in any disastrous way, but it’s only a matter of time. To truly succeed in the Majors, he’ll need to work on quality of contact.

The good news is he has multiple tools at his disposal. Presently, he’s far too predictable when it comes to attacking the strike zone. A stint in Triple-A might have helped him to learn how to work outside of the zone effectively. Now, he’ll have to learn on the fly – though it isn’t too hard of a lesson. You’ve undoubtedly heard someone say pitching is a game of chess. In this case, Kirby telegraphs his moves which helps opponents to employ stunning counters (hard contact). As he matures, Kirby will learn to use opponents’ expectations against them.

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, TOR (AAA)

150 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .324/.380/.404

Moreno is expected to join the Blue Jays lineup tonight and will instantly become the best defensive catcher on the roster. While they both have plenty of bat for the position, neither Alejandro Kirk nor Zack Collins is well-regarded defensively. Danny Jansen, who is considered a good defender, is currently sidelined with a finger injury.

Moreno began to turn heads during 2020 then parlayed his growth into an explosive 2021 when he was on the field. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 159 plate appearances. He’s nearly matched that total this year. Although he’s continued to provide above average offense, his power has wilted. In addition to the one lonesome home run, he’s hit only eight doubles.

Shane Baz, 23, SP, TBR (AAA)

13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 13.85 K/9, 2.77 BB/9

Baz, the final piece of the Chris Archer haul, made his big league debut last season. He flashed a lightning fastball and two wipeout breaking balls. An elbow injury slowed his 2022 debut. He’s made four rehab appearances in Triple-A and has been declared ready. He is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.

Although I don’t have specific velocity readings from his outings, the results seemingly speak for themselves. Baz recorded 20 strikeouts against just eight hits, four walks, and a hit batter. His most recent appearance came against a weak Brewers affiliate. He faced 18 batters and struck out 10. To preserve his health, he’ll likely face 20 or fewer batters in his upcoming outings.

Five More

MJ Melendez (23): The return of Salvador Perez has not slowed Melendez. He’s now regularly batting fifth in the lineup while playing catcher, right field, or designated hitter. Melendez has hit a healthy .271/.340/.518 with five home runs over his last 94 plate appearances.

Juan Yepez (24): Called up when the Cardinals were dealing with a stack of injuries, Yepez has cooled in recent weeks. Since May 24, he’s batting .186/.229/.256 in 48 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson’s return could result in fewer opportunities for Yepez.

Nolan Gorman (22): Despite hitting well, Gorman has fallen into a part-time role. His .288/.362/.519 line in 58 plate appearances is partly overshadowed by a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s in line with his performance in Triple-A. When he does connect, he makes loud contact.

Noelvi Marte (20): Briefly considered a Julio Rodriguez-caliber international prospect, scouts have recently taken to describing Marte in more ordinary terms. Apparently, he reached physical maturity ahead of his peers. While he still seems destined to reach the Majors in short order, a superstar ceiling might prove difficult to achieve.

Roansy Contreras (22): Contreras’s 24-batter outing on June 4 was his first in the Majors in which he faced more than 20 batters. Concerns remain about the lack of changeup, but Contreras gives every appearance of being a reliable Major League contributor. Like many young pitchers, he’s allowed more hard contact than is ideal.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Gabriel Moreno George Kirby Josh Lowe Shane Baz Steven Kwan

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Have The Brewers Developed Another Ace?

By Steve Adams | June 6, 2022 at 3:47pm CDT

The Brewers’ rotation has been its primary strength for the past several seasons. Entering the year the club looked like the favorite in the NL Central (or at least a co-favorite) on the strength of the three-headed monster of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and 2021 National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Brewers starters have indeed been excellent both in the eyes of traditional and newer metrics, ranking fifth in the Majors with a collective 3.36 ERA, fourth with a 3.43 FIP and third with a 3.44 SIERA.

Eric Lauer | Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The route the Brewers have taken to get there, however, isn’t the one any would’ve forecast heading into the season. Burnes has been predictably excellent, working to a 2.50 ERA on the back of a dominant K-BB% and thus far making a strong bid for a repeat win in the Cy Young balloting. Woodruff, however, is struggling through his worst full season as a starter thanks to an alarming spike in home-run rate, and he recently hit the IL with a high ankle sprain. Peralta, meanwhile, pitched just 38 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball before a lat strain sent him to the injured list. He’s not expected back anytime soon.

So, how have the Brewers continued on as one of the game’s best starting staffs? They’ve received solid if unspectacular work from fifth starter Adrian Houser and some intriguing work from rookie Aaron Ashby, but the biggest driving factor that’s allowed them to weather the Woodruff struggles and Peralta injury has been Eric Lauer’s transformation from back-of-the-rotation arm to what looks like the next great Brewers starter.

Acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in a deal that sent outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to San Diego, Lauer was seen as a back-of-the-rotation option for the Brewers at the time of the swap. That’s understandable, as from 2018-19, he’d been just that with the Padres. Between those two seasons, Lauer tallied 261 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball with a below-average strikeout rate (20.6%), a solid walk rate (8.4%) and below-average ground-ball tendencies (38.9%). Generally speaking, he fit the soft-tossing-lefty mold with which most baseball fans are familiar: strike-thrower who doesn’t overpower opponents but has good command of the zone and keeps his team in the game more often than not.

As recently as the 2020-21 offseason, the trade to acquire Lauer and Urias looked quite lopsided in San Diego’s favor. Lauer tossed just 11 innings for the Brewers in 2020, while Urias provided no real offensive value through 120 plate appearances that season. Grisham, meanwhile, was excellent while playing 59 of 60 games for the Padres that summer, and Davies had the best year of his career by a wide margin (which helped the Padres subsequently include him in the trade to acquire Yu Darvish from the Cubs). Recent play from Urias and especially Lauer has flipped the narrative, though.

Lauer opened the 2021 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club and spent the first month of the year there before being recalled to the Majors on April 29. Over his first nine appearances (seven starts, two from the bullpen), he posted a nondescript 4.50 ERA/5.08 FIP and garnered little attention. At that point, few would’ve pegged Lauer as a critical cog to the Brewers’ immediate rotation plans.

On July 3 of last season, however, something changed. Lauer threw a slider. It wasn’t the first of his career, but it was his first of the season. He wound up throwing the pitch just under 20% of the time that day, taking his retooled breaking ball for a test drive against a hapless Pirates lineup with good success. Lauer has featured the pitch regularly since, and it’s difficult to overstate just how important it has been to his arsenal.

Since re-debuting the pitch on July 3 last season, FanGraphs ranks Lauer sixth among all Major League starting pitchers in slider runs above average. His slider trails only Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Tarik Skubal and, ever-so-slightly, Brad Keller. That’s a bit misleading, though, as all of those pitchers other than Scherzer throw their slider more often than Lauer. Keller has thrown his slider at a 38.7% clip in that time, while Cease has used his exactly a third of the time. Ohtani is at 28.8% and Skubal at 26.8%. Lauer’s 19.9% usage rate from 2021-22 comes in at exactly half that of Keller. In other words, on a per-pitch basis, Lauer’s slider has been substantially move valuable than all of Cease, Ohtani, Skubal and Keller.

In fact, when shifting to look at slider value per 100 pitches thrown, Scherzer is the only starter in baseball (min. 50 innings) whose slider has generated more value. (Notably, had the beginning of Lauer’s slider usage not coincided almost perfectly with Jacob deGrom’s 2021 season-ending injury, he’d have ranked above Lauer as well, given that deGrom unsurprisingly had the best per-pitch slider in MLB last year.)

Lauer wound up throwing 224 sliders from July 3 onward last season, and in the 73 plate appearances that culminated with that pitch, his opponents batted just .123/.219/.215. He’s thrown 201 sliders this season, finished off 61 plate appearances with the pitch, and yielded just a .140/.180/.193 output to opponents. This season, Statcast ranks Lauer sixth among big league pitchers (min. 50 PAs) with a .221 expected wOBA against his slider. Given the pitch’s success, it’s little surprise that Lauer is throwing it at a career-high 21.9% clip so far in 2022, and you could argue he ought to feature it even more heavily.

All told, since Lauer reincorporated the slider into his arsenal, he’s made 23 starts and pitched to a 2.40 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate. He’s had some good fortune, evidenced by a .247 average on balls in play and an 83.6% strand rate, but even accounting for some likely regression in those areas, Lauer looks like a completely different pitcher. That’s especially true because the addition of a slider doesn’t appear to be the only meaningful change that’s led to his breakout.

Entering the 2022 season, Lauer had averaged 91.9 mph on his four-seam fastball. He saw a slight uptick from 91.7 mph (2018-20) to 92.5 mph in 2021, however, and he’s sitting at a career-high 93.7 mph so far in 2022. The left-hander told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel near the end of Spring Training (where he’d also shown a noticeable jump in velocity readings) that his strong finish in 2021 allowed him to shift his offseason focus from searching for flaws in his delivery and refining his mechanics to building strength. Said Lauer at the time:

“It was more a focus on strength training and finally getting used to my body being synched up like it is now. I spent a lot of time this offseason focusing on upper body movement and strength so I think we’re finally seeing everything line up.”

Lauer’s fastball hasn’t morphed into a dominant offering with the newfound velocity, but it’s performed much better — as one would expect upon jumping nearly two miles per hour in a two-year span. The 2020-21 version of Lauer’s heater was a decidedly below-average offering, according to run values from both FanGraphs and Statcast. Both now rate it as a roughly average pitch. Lauer has posted a career-best 12.9% swinging-strike rate (swings-and-misses per total pitches thrown) on his four-seamer in 2022. His 33.3% whiff rate (swings-and-misses per swing) on the four-seamer is up from 26.5% in 2021 and way up from the 21.5% he posted in 2018-19 with San Diego.

Lauer is far from a two-pitch starter, as he’ll also work in a cutter, curveball and more occasional changeup (which also rates excellently on a per-pitch basis). But the improvements he’s made to his four-seamer and especially to his slider have vaulted him from a fairly run-of-the-mill back-end starter to a legitimate weapon who’s helped the Brewers offset downturns in production from Woodruff and Peralta.

Barring an extension, the Brewers control Lauer for two years beyond the current campaign. That timeframe lines up directly with all three of Burnes, Woodruff and Houser. Peralta is signed through 2024, and his contract contains affordable 2025 and 2026 club options for Milwaukee. The aforementioned Ashby, who perhaps merits a deep dive of his own, is controllable all the way through 2027.

Suffice it to say, the long-term outlook for the Brewers’ staff is quite bright. And, if Milwaukee can get Woodruff and Peralta healthy and closer to 2021 form by the season’s final month, their top four starters — paired with Josh Hader and Devin Williams — will again give them the type of formidable staff that can carry a deep postseason run, provided the Brewers’ bats speak louder than they did last October (six total runs in four NLDS games against the Braves).

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MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers Eric Lauer

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