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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

By | at March 8, 2023 8:54pm CDT

The Rays are known for their roster turnover and this offseason was no exception as they made many trades. However, most of the moves were around the edges of their roster, meaning they will go into 2023 with a fairly similar squad to the one that just won 86 games and made the playoffs for a fourth straight year. It’s possible they could have better results this season simply by having better health outcomes, though they also made one significant free agent splash to upgrade the squad.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $11MM
Total spending: $40MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The injury bug hit the Rays pretty hard in 2022, as only four pitchers on the staff topped 80 innings pitched and only four position players got into more than 115 games. Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe and others missed significant time. But the club leaned on its trademark depth and still managed to squeeze into the postseason for a fourth straight year.

As the offseason began, the first item on the agenda was a roster crunch, a common issue for a club that stockpiles depth and runs tight budgets. They had to make some tough decisions due to a 19-player arbitration class and a number of players who needed to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Those tough decisions led to the departure of a few long-tenured Rays.

Defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier had his option turned down after a 2022 season ended by hip surgery. Ryan Yarbrough was non-tendered after another season of passable but fairly uninspiring results. Nick Anderson was placed on waivers after two straight seasons mostly lost to injury, later clearing and signing with Atlanta. Ji-Man Choi could have been retained for one more season via arbitration but was instead flipped to the Pirates. J.P. Feyereisen still had four years of club control but was traded to the Dodgers as he is expected to miss most of the upcoming season due to shoulder surgery. Along with a few other swaps, the Rays ended up making eight trades in a span of about a month, from mid-November to mid-December. Those moves helped clear out some salary and some roster space, along with the free agent departures of Corey Kluber, Mike Zunino and David Peralta.

It feels strange to look at all of that roster churn and characterize it as stability, but the club didn’t really subtract a core performer, at least from last year’s club. Some other offseasons have seen the Rays part with notable players like Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows or Blake Snell, but this year’s departures weren’t quite as prominent. Players like Kiermaier, Zunino, Feyereisen and Anderson missed significant time last year and weren’t really factors very often, if at all. Kiermaier has been a key cog on the team for the past decade, though he’s often been limited by injuries, including being held to just 63 contests last year. It’s a similar story for Zunino, who has been the club’s primary catcher for the past four years but only got into 36 games last season.

Arguably, the club’s biggest loss from last year is Kluber, as he made 31 starts with a 4.34 ERA. That’s not exactly within range of his previous Cy Young form, but that still had value to a club that dealt with so many injury absences.

It’s possible that the club recognized this, as their most significant offseason splash was to replace Kluber in the rotation. Zach Eflin was signed to a three-year, $40MM deal. When compared to some of the other free agent deals signed around the league, it might not seem that significant. However, that was the only major league deal that the Rays gave out this winter, and the $40MM guarantee is the largest they’ve given to a free agent in the history of the franchise.

Eflin, 29 in April, has spent his entire big league career thus far with the Phillies, serving as a solid mid-rotation option. Over the past five years, he’s tossed 531 2/3 innings with a 4.16 ERA. It’s possible that he could find another gear, as he’s kept his FIP, SIERA and xERA under 4.00 in each of the past three seasons. The Rays have shown a penchant for helping players maximize their potential and maybe they’ve found a solid candidate here, showing their faith with that huge commitment, relative to their standards.

But it’s not without risks as Eflin has continually battled knee issues and only once topped 130 innings in a major league season, which was back in 2019. In 2017, a then 22-year-old Eflin admitted to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he’d already been dealing with knee pain for 10-12 years. He felt good after surgery at that time but had to go under the knife again in 2021 and also missed a couple months with knee issues last year. That doesn’t exactly paint a picture of Eflin being a solid bet for the largest free agent investment the club’s ever made, but there were fairly similar concerns around Kluber a year ago. Perhaps the Rays have a plan in mind for how to keep Eflin healthy and effective all year long.

The club was also connected in rumors to other players this offseason, including big names like Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Sean Murphy. Ultimately, none of those came to fruition, leaving the main storylines in Tampa as the Eflin signing and the batch of trades. Most of the players that came back in those deals are still young and a ways off from contributing. That means the 2023 club will be fairly reliant on better health from the incumbent players, in addition to the club’s annual tradition of funneling minor leaguers onto the major league roster.

Eflin will jump into a rotation that will be without Baz for much or perhaps all of the season, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. Glasnow, who missed almost all of 2022 from his own Tommy John recovery, was hoping for a fully healthy season here in 2023. He’s currently dealing with an oblique strain that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks, but he should be able to take a spot once he gets past that. With Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs still in the mix, the rotation seems to be in decent shape. While Glasnow is out, they might have to do some of their bullpen games or opener days, but they also have depth options in Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming. Prospect Taj Bradley could launch himself into the mix at some point as well, having reached Triple-A last year.

On the position player side, much of the same crew from last year will be back, despite the aforementioned roster shuffling. With Choi gone, first base could perhaps be manned by Yandy Díaz, freeing up the hot corner for Isaac Paredes, though Díaz could still see some time at third going forward. First base could also be manned by Harold Ramírez at times, with he and Diaz perhaps taking turns as the designated hitter. In the middle infield, the club will be hoping for better health from both Franco and Lowe, who were limited by injuries to 83 and 65 games last year, respectively.

In the outfield, the post-Kiermaier era will start with Jose Siri taking over in center. He didn’t hit much last year but was great in the field and on the base paths. He’s got a solid floor and could be a great contributor if he can cut down on the strikeouts. That’s a big “if” though, since he’s gone down on strikes in 33.4% of his plate appearances thus far, with fairly similar rates in Triple-A and Double-A. Since he turns 28 in July, it remains to be seen how much more rope the Rays will give him to correct that issue.

Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot are still around and should be flanking Siri out on the turf. Both the infield and the outfield will be bolstered by depth options who could force their way into more playing time as the season goes along. Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, Luke Raley, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján and Josh Lowe are all on the 40-man roster and can all play multiple positions. Depending on health and performance, they all could get slotted in somewhere at some point. Mead seems to be particularly highly valued by the club, as they have reportedly been discussing an extension despite the fact that he’s yet to make his major league debut. Brujan used to be in that position, as he was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has slashed a dismal .150/.207/.231 in his first 188 MLB plate appearances.

The club had at least some desire to upgrade behind the plate since they were interested in Murphy, but they didn’t ultimately make a move. This is one area of the roster where the club feels a bit vulnerable, with Christian Bethancourt, Francisco Mejía and René Pinto the three backstops on the roster. Bethancourt had a solid season in 2022, but that was his first major league action since 2017, as he had been in the minors and the KBO in the interim. Mejia was solid in 2021 but disappointed last year, both at the plate and behind it. Pinto has just 25 games in the majors but struck out in 42.2% of his plate appearances in that time.

In the bullpen, despite losing Feyereisen, Raley and others, they still have an enviable collection of intriguing arms. It includes Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Jalen Beeks, Garrett Cleavinger and more. Given the club’s ability to produce quality relievers seemingly at will, a few surprising names could jump into this mix later in the summer.

Turning to the long-term picture, the Rays added some cost certainty by agreeing to extensions with three players. Springs, Fairbanks and Diaz all put pen to paper this winter, locking in some future earnings. In exchange for that financial security, each of them pushed back their respective trips to free agency. Including the club options that the Rays now have on all three players, Fairbanks relinquished one free agent season, Diaz two, and Springs three. Those extensions theoretically give the club a bit more continuity in the years to come, but that might not necessarily be the case. An extension doesn’t mean a trade is off the table. Snell was extended going into 2019 but was traded to the Padres less than two years later.

Another piece of the long-term picture that needs to come into focus is the stadium. Both the club and the league have been open about the fact that an upgrade is needed over Tropicana Field. The team’s lease on the Trop goes through 2027, which puts some pressure to get solutions in place. The latest updates are that the mayor of St. Petersburg has given his support to the proposed redevelopment plan. The next step is that city council needs to approve a term sheet, which is currently being negotiated. Once it’s determined what funding commitments will come from the city, Pinellas County and the Rays, it’s possible the term sheet could be agreed upon by this summer. Making progress on this front will have implications not just for the Rays but for the league as well, as commissioner Rob Manfred has repeatedly stated that expanding beyond the current 30 major league teams won’t happen until both the Rays and A’s find solutions for their respective stadium situations.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason?

  • C 45% (737)
  • B 30% (498)
  • D 14% (233)
  • F 6% (98)
  • A 5% (85)

Total votes: 1,651

In conjunction with the Rays offseason review, we hosted a Rays-focused chat on March 9. You can click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

By | at March 8, 2023 4:10pm CDT

The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By | at March 7, 2023 10:31pm CDT

Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Wednesday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The White Sox made additions as expected at left field, second base, and in the rotation.  GM Rick Hahn brought in a new manager and largely stayed out of the trade market, resulting in a team that needs to see increased production from incumbents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The White Sox kicked off their offseason with the hire of Pedro Grifol as manager.  The 52-year-old former Royals coach will hopefully serve as a breath of fresh air after Tony La Russa’s two-year tenure.  Perhaps to compensate for Grifol’s lack of managing experience, Charlie Montoyo will serve as his bench coach.  Jose Castro is the new hitting coach, also taking on this role for the first time.  He’ll be assisted by another new addition, Chris Johnson.

After making fairly obvious calls to exercise Tim Anderson’s option and decline that of Josh Harrison, the club was given an extra $8MM to play with due to a surprising decision by AJ Pollock.  Pollock chose a $5MM buyout over a $13MM player option, despite a disappointing season.  He ended up signing with the Mariners for $7MM, sacrificing a million bucks in the process, but finding what he presumably feels is a better situation for playing time.  That’s a bit odd, because the only sure thing in Chicago’s outfield at that point was the oft-injured Luis Robert.  Pollock explained this month to The Athletic’s Corey Brock, “I just felt for me and for the team, in talking with them, there would be a better fit somewhere else.”

At November’s GM Meetings, Rick Hahn noted he expected to be more active this offseason in trades as opposed to free agency.  Not long after that, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine noted that the Sox “[had] their eye on” Oakland catcher Sean Murphy.  Murphy, of course, would wind up with the Braves in a December trade that also brought William Contreras to Milwaukee.  James McCann was also traded this offseason, while free agency included catchers Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, Tucker Barnhart, Mike Zunino, Austin Hedges, Curt Casali, and Luke Maile.

Given those catching options and their prices, Hahn chose to stand pat.  The Sox will stick with incumbents Yasmani Grandal and Seby Zavala behind the dish.  After a terrible 2022 season marred by October ’21 knee surgery, Grandal has spent this offseason training with Blackhawks strength and conditioning coach Paul Goodman, according to James Fegan of The Athletic.

It was clear the White Sox were going to add a starting pitcher this winter, and in late November they reached an agreement with Mike Clevinger.  Clevinger, 32, had a middling post-Tommy John surgery season in ’22 for the Padres, particularly over his last 13 starts including the postseason.  Unbeknownst to the White Sox at that time, Clevinger was under investigation by MLB following allegations of domestic violence.  Earlier this week, MLB announced that they “will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations.”

Shortly after the Clevinger agreement in November, longtime White Sox star Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM deal with the Astros.  At the age of 36, we thought Abreu would be limited to two-year offers.  The Guardians reportedly offered three years as well, though at an unknown average annual value.  Abreu later commented through an interpreter that the White Sox made a “really good offer” of unknown value.  But unlike the first time Abreu approached free agency, the White Sox did not seem likely to retain him.  They’ve lost their best hitter from 2022, but did open up first base for Andrew Vaughn as expected.  Vaughn logged 645 innings in the corner outfield spots for the Sox last year and struggled defensively.

With limited payroll space, it seemed in December that the White Sox were at least willing to discuss closer Liam Hendriks in trades.  Such concerns took a backseat to the unfortunate news in January that Hendriks would undergo treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.  As Hahn put it in a statement, “Our thoughts and reactions at this time are for Liam the person, not Liam the baseball player. I know the entire Chicago White Sox organization, our staff, his teammates, and certainly White Sox fans, will rally in support of Liam and Kristi during the coming months.”

In my October offseason outlook for the White Sox, I suggested that Pollock and Adam Engel might continue to serve as the backup plan in center field, given Luis Robert‘s injury history.  Pollock chose free agency, and the club non-tendered Engel.  Instead, the White Sox added Jake Marisnick, Billy Hamilton, and Victor Reyes on minor league deals.  Leury Garcia has also played some center field, but in general, I expected the Sox to add a better safety net for Robert.

The White Sox did address their left field situation in a decisive way, signing Andrew Benintendi to a five-year, $75MM contract that ranks as the largest deal in franchise history.  Coming off a season in which he hit five home runs in 521 plate appearances, we were surprised to see Benintendi land a five-year deal.  But as MLBTR’s Steve Adams put it, the 28-year-old Benintendi is a high-floor player who has “settled in as a contact-oriented left fielder who draws walks, rarely strikes out, and provides quality defense.”  It seems that the Sox at least explored trade options before signing Benintendi, as they were connected to the Arizona outfield surplus before the Diamondbacks traded Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays.

While the White Sox reportedly expressed interest in Royals infielder Nicky Lopez in late January, he has not been traded to date.  The free agent market offered second base capable players such as Brandon Drury, Jean Segura, Aledmys Diaz, and Adam Frazier.  Plenty of middle infielders were traded, such as Kevin Newman, Kyle Farmer, Kolten Wong, Miguel Rojas, Luis Arraez, and Adalberto Mondesi.  The Sox instead opted to bring Elvis Andrus back on an affordable $3MM deal in February.

Andrus, 34, has yet to play second base in his 14-year MLB career, but he’ll do so for the White Sox.  He’ll also be available as a capable backup for shortstop Tim Anderson, who has played in about 62% of Chicago’s games since 2021.  Though a certain portion of the White Sox fanbase would like to move on from Anderson, the club conveyed to potential suitors that they would not be trading him, reported Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic during the Winter Meetings.

Anderson, 29, is under team control through 2024 via a club option.  Speaking to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin in February, it sounds like Anderson would prefer some clarity on his future with the club.  He said, “I’m on two option years, and we let it get here and it’s like, dang, I kind of want to know where my feet are going to be at the next whatever years it is and I want to know where I’m going to be at.”  He also made quite clear he’d like to stay.  Anderson’s heir apparent, former first-round pick Colson Montgomery, could be knocking on the door of the Majors when Anderson enters his contract year.

Turnover has been constant in right field for the White Sox in recent years.  Grifol and the White Sox would like to see 24-year-old prospect Oscar Colas win the everyday job, with Gavin Sheets, Leury Garcia, and Marisnick considered other options.  Eloy Jimenez is primarily expected to serve as designated hitter, but may play right field occasionally.  Colas has only seven games at the Triple-A level, but has a chance to seize the job early this year.

Hahn’s other offseason moves were around the margins, grabbing Nick Avila in the Rule 5 draft and acquiring cheaply-available arms like Franklin German, Gregory Santos, and A.J. Alexy.

While Hahn likely entertained more trades than the ones that reached the rumor mill, ultimately his offseason was a predictable one.  The chances of the 2023 White Sox mostly rest on players that were already in-house.  Specifically, it will boil down to seven players who disappointed due to some combination of injury and underperformance in 2022.  Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez have been unable to stay healthy the past two years.  Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and Lance Lynn combined for 15.9 WAR in 2021 and 4.2 in ’22, a difference of nearly 12 wins.

Though the club can’t count on big offense from Andrus or Colas, the other seven members of the team’s likely starting lineup all project as above average hitters.  The team’s rotation is fronted by Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease, while Lynn and Giolito should be solid if not aces.  Even without Hendriks, a bullpen fronted by Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, and Reynaldo Lopez could be formidable.

The 2023 White Sox are a team that is surprisingly easy to dream on, but also a team light on depth in certain spots.  If Grandal struggles again, Seby Zavala isn’t likely to provide much offense from the catcher spot.  There are some backup plans for Anderson and Moncada, but the outfield looks thin if Robert goes on the IL or Colas doesn’t hit the ground running.  Similarly, the rotation has question marks in the fourth and fifth spots with Michael Kopech and Clevinger and has little room to sustain injuries.

While the 2022 season left a bad taste in fans’ mouths, FanGraphs suggests the AL Central is mostly a toss-up among the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox.  It’ll be interesting to see what this post-hype team can do if key players stay healthy.

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Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 World Baseball Classic?

By | at March 7, 2023 5:45pm CDT

The 2023 World Baseball Classic kicks off tonight, technically Wednesday locally in Taiwan but the time difference will make it late Tuesday night for those watching in the Western Hemisphere. This will be the first time the tournament is held since 2017, as the pandemic threw the tournament off its planned four-year schedule and led to the postponement of the 2021 edition.

The first two tournaments in WBC history were won by Japan, followed by the Dominican Republic in 2013 and the United States in 2017. Puerto Rico was the runner-up in each of the past two tournaments, while South Korea and Cuba also have second-place finishes. Venezuela and the Netherlands have also made it as far as the semifinals.

This tournament figures to be perhaps the most star-studded edition thus far, as many of the top MLB players steered clear of previous iterations of the WBC. That doesn’t appear to be the case this year, with many marquee players suiting up. The American team features Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts and plenty of other All-Stars. The DR will have Manny Machado, Julio Rodríguez and Juan Soto. Shohei Ohtani is playing for Japan, Freddie Freeman for Canada, Francisco Lindor for Puerto Rico, Jose Altuve for Venezuela, Xander Bogaerts for the Netherlands, Tommy Edman for Korea, Julio Urías for Mexico, Joc Pederson for Israel and Vinnie Pasquantino for Italy. For the first time, the Cuban team will feature MLB players, with Luis Robert and Yoán Moncada coming aboard. There will also be plenty of intriguing players who have yet to make the jump to North America, such as Munetaka Murakami, Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee. The full rosters can be found here.

Many outlets consider either USA or DR to be the favorites, but there are many other star-studded rosters. Perhaps we’ll get a crazy upset from a Czech Republic team that’s manned by firefighters, real estate agents and school teachers and was recently profiled by David Waldstein of The New York Times.

What do you think? Who’s going to win it all this time? Have you say in the poll below! (Link to poll)

Who will win the 2023 World Baseball Classic?

  • United States 38% (3,386)
  • Dominican Republic 29% (2,595)
  • Japan 13% (1,144)
  • Puerto Rico 4% (395)
  • Venezuela 2% (217)
  • Canada 2% (181)
  • Israel 2% (138)
  • Mexico 2% (137)
  • Cuba 1% (112)
  • Czech Republic 1% (106)
  • Netherlands 1% (91)
  • Nicaragua 1% (74)
  • Korea 1% (65)
  • Great Britain 1% (50)
  • Italy 1% (49)
  • Chinese Taipei 0% (41)
  • Australia 0% (33)
  • China 0% (21)
  • Colombia 0% (19)
  • Panama 0% (19)

Total votes: 8,873

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Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By | at March 7, 2023 5:12pm CDT

Within days of winning the World Series, the Astros parted ways with their general manager. They went with an uncertain front office for a few months but made a few early splashes. Things quieted down before Houston brought in their new GM, who has already set out to put his stamp on the organization in Spring Training.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $43MM
Total spending: $105MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Even as the Astros were barreling towards the second championship in franchise history, whispers of conflict behind the scenes began to trickle out. Rumors of a strained relationship between general manager James Click and manager Dusty Baker and, to an even greater extent, between Click and owner Jim Crane mounted towards season’s end. Even the team getting to the pinnacle of the sport couldn’t stop the situation from reaching a tipping point.

In the days after the World Series parade, Crane made one-year extension offers to Baker and Click — both of whom had been on expiring deals. The longtime manager accepted and will be back for a fourth season at the helm. Click, on the other hand, rejected an offer he and many throughout the industry considered below standard for an executive whose team had just won a championship. Crane responded by dismissing him, setting the stage for an almost unprecedented GM search on the heels of a title.

While the front office uncertainty loomed over much of the offseason, Crane consistently maintained he didn’t view it as a pressing hole to plug. The owner himself stepped further into day-to-day baseball operations with help from assistant GMs Andrew Ball and Bill Firkus and from longtime Houston first baseman Jeff Bagwell. The Astros faced some immediate roster decisions as a handful of key players were headed to the open market.

Houston struck early with one of their top free agents. During the five-day window between the end of the World Series and the official start of free agency — a time when clubs have exclusive negotiating rights with their own players — the Astros kept reliever Rafael Montero off the market on a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The righty was coming off the best season of his career, posting a 2.37 ERA with above-average strikeout and grounder numbers. He’d been a crucial piece of an excellent relief corps. Retaining Montero kept the group mostly intact, although Houston did buy out deadline pickup Will Smith and allow him to join the Rangers.

Even with Montero returning, Houston faced the potential departures of a handful of key players from last year’s club. None loomed larger than the defending Cy Young award winner. Justin Verlander had returned from a Tommy John surgery to throw 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball during his age-39 season. He has shown no signs of slowing down with age and/or injury and made the obvious decision to decline a $25MM player option for the upcoming campaign.

Houston and Verlander were in contact early in the winter. Crane even went on record to indicate Verlander was seeking a deal that approached the three years and $130MM that Max Scherzer had received from the Mets the previous offseason. Yet reports suggested Houston wasn’t prepared to go to those lengths for a pitcher who’d turn 40 before Opening Day. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggested the Astros were offering between $60MM and $70MM over two seasons.

The market also valued Verlander at two years but at a loftier annual price. Verlander ended up reuniting with Scherzer in Queens, matching his record $43.333MM average annual value over two seasons. The total guarantee checked in around $86.667MM, quite a bit higher than Houston’s reported offer. After four and a half seasons, Verlander moved on. The Astros never seemed to seriously consider replacing him, instead moving everyone else in a still strong rotation up a peg.

Beyond Verlander, Houston also saw Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and deadline acquisitions Christian Vázquez and Trey Mancini hit the open market. Not coincidentally, Houston was rumored to be in the market for players at first base, catcher and in left field. Initial reports suggested the Astros were targeting Anthony Rizzo to replace Gurriel. When Rizzo promptly re-signed with the Yankees, Houston pivoted to arguably the top first baseman available in free agency.

The Astros made José Abreu their biggest external addition of the winter. The 2020 AL MVP inked a three-year, $58.5MM deal in late November. There’s risk in buying the age 36 through 38 campaigns for a player who is limited to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but Abreu should bring quite a bit more offensive punch than Gurriel provided in a down 2022 season. A career .292/.354/.506 hitter, Abreu posted a .304/.378/.446 line with 15 home runs in 157 games during his final year with the White Sox.

To address left field, Houston checked in on such players as Michael Conforto and Andrew Benintendi. Rather than splurge on either, they ultimately circled back to Brantley as their lefty-swinging left field/designated hitter option. Coming off season-ending shoulder surgery and headed into his age-36 campaign, Brantley was limited to a one-year deal. Yet he still secured $12MM on the strength of offensive production that remains excellent when he’s healthy enough to take the field. Brantley walked more than he struck out over 277 plate appearances last season, hitting .288/.370/.416 with five homers and 14 doubles.

The trio of Montero, Abreu and Brantley ended up comprising all of Houston’s major league free agent acquisitions. Their catcher pursuit came up short. Houston reportedly put forth a multi-year offer to top free agent backstop Willson Contreras but saw the longtime Cub instead join the Cardinals on a five-year, $87.5MM deal. The gap between Contreras and any other free agent catcher was massive, and Houston ultimately decided to roll with their internal options after missing out on the one catcher who could’ve added another middle-of-the-order presence. While the Astros were at least loosely tied to lower-tier veterans like Tucker Barnhart, they’re going to move forward with Martín Maldonado for another season.

Houston acquired Vázquez last summer as a veteran backup to Maldonado but allowed him to depart in free agency. With Jason Castro retiring, Houston seems set to turn to a less experienced option as Maldonado’s #2. Former first-round draftee Korey Lee is a strong defender with some power but significant strikeout concerns. Yainer Díaz had a breakout 2022 showing in the upper minors and brings the opposite profile: an advanced bat but questions about his defense. They’ll battle for the backup job and potentially for longer-term run as the organization’s catcher of the future, since the 36-year-old Maldonado will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign.

The rest of the position player group is straightforward. Abreu will man first base. Jose Altuve is back at second, with Jeremy Peña having secured shortstop behind an excellent rookie season. Alex Bregman returns to solidify the hot corner. Brantley, when healthy, will split his time between left field and designated hitter. Yordan Alvarez will do the same, with the club aiming to get their star slugger a little more defensive work than he’s logged in years past. Kyle Tucker is one of the sport’s best right fielders on both sides of the ball.

To the extent there’s a position battle, it looks like it’d be in center field. Chas McCormick has consistently produced over his first two big league campaigns, though the organization has seemed reluctant to anoint him their long-term center fielder. McCormick should have a leg up on the job after playing well during the club’s postseason run. Baker has suggested this spring that Jake Meyers is still in the mix, though, and utilityman Mauricio Dubón could garner some consideration as well.

Dubón is out of minor league option years and figures to be on the MLB roster as a depth player. He and rookie David Hensley could take on some utility responsibilities after Houston lost Aledmys Díaz to free agency. The Astros also brought in infielder Rylan Bannon on a waiver claim from the Cubs. Their only trade of the offseason was the acquisition of depth corner outfielder Bligh Madris from the Tigers for cash.

Houston did even less to augment the pitching staff, showing plenty of faith in their in-house options. With Verlander gone, Framber Valdez assumes the role of staff ace. He’s followed by Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy. A healthy Lance McCullers Jr. would be in the mix but he’s not going to be ready for Opening Day after suffering a muscle strain in his right arm. That pushes top prospect Hunter Brown into the rotation. It’s still a strong top five but the depth behind that group is a little thinner than it has been in recent seasons.

There are no such concerns about a bullpen that again looks to be one of the league’s best. Montero returns to join Ryne Stanek, Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Bryan Abreu among the bridges to closer Ryan Pressly. It’s a group that skews right-handed, but that has been the case for a few seasons and the Astros have been no worse for wear. Houston added southpaw Matt Gage off release waivers from Toronto to compete with the likes of Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski in that regard. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Astros ran out all right-handed bullpens at points.

After an initial flurry of activity early in the winter, Houston was mostly quiet from December onwards. While their work with the roster faded into the background, the organization took a few months to put their new leadership structure in place. At the end of January, they finalized a deal to bring in Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager.

Brown is a first-time GM but has played an integral part in building the core of an Atlanta team that won the World Series two seasons ago. He hasn’t had a chance to put his stamp on the roster with any external pickups considering he was hired after the free agent and trade markets were all but finished. Yet he’s already shown one aspect that could help define the next few seasons of Astros baseball: an affinity for contract extensions.

Since taking the helm, Brown has gone on record about a desire to sign players like Tucker, Valdez, Altuve and Bregman to long-term deals. No organization has been as successful at locking up key players in recent years than the Braves, and it’s clearly a philosophy he’ll attempt to bring to Houston. He’s already hammered out one long-term deal, signing Javier to a $64MM guarantee to buy out his three arbitration seasons and two would-be free agent years. Javier secured the largest deal ever for a pitcher with between three and four years of service and didn’t need to tack on any below-market club options at the back end. It was a strong contract for the electric young righty, one that hints at the kind of aggressiveness which could define future extension talks.

It stands to reason the front office will spend the rest of Spring Training trying to get another deal(s) like that done. Even if nothing comes to fruition, the Astros remain as well-positioned for success over the coming seasons as any team in the game. Brantley, Maldonado, Stanek and Maton are the only players set to reach free agency at the end of the ’23 campaign. While those are valuable contributors, Houston isn’t at risk of losing any of their true star performers until Altuve and Bregman hit the market over the 2024-25 offseason.

The Astros have had a remarkable past few years, advancing at least as far as the American League Championship Series in six consecutive seasons. They’ve done so despite a decent amount of roster turnover, with only Altuve, Bregman and McCullers remaining from the 2017 World Series team. (Gurriel is still unsigned and could theoretically return, although Brown has implied the club doesn’t feel they have the playing time to offer him.)

Tucker, Peña, Alvarez, Valdez, Javier and Garcia will be around for at least three more seasons. Even as teams like the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers improve, the competitive window in Houston remains wide open. The Astros again look like the favorites in the AL West and will try to become the first repeat World Series winners since the late-’90s Yankees. Legitimate championship aspirations aren’t going away anytime soon.

In conjunction with the Astros’ Offseason In Review, Anthony Franco held a team-specific chat on March 9. Click here to view the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

Revisiting The Best Fits For Jurickson Profar

By | at March 6, 2023 11:59pm CDT

Jurickson Profar was one of just three players on our annual Top 50 free-agent list here at MLBTR who hadn’t agreed to terms on a new contract prior to the calendar flipping to 2023. Two months later, Profar is still a free agent and, unsurprisingly, is the final unsigned member of that same top 50 list.

It’s fair to wonder just how aggressive he and agent Scott Boras were early in the winter. Profar began his offseason by declining a $7.5MM player option. While he never seemed likely to sign any kind of mega-deal, even as someone who’s more bearish on the player than many, I anticipated that he’d surpass that level of compensation. We put a relatively modest two-year, $20MM prediction on Profar’s eventual contract, but MLBTR was lower than many on the veteran switch-hitter; the New York Post’s Jon Heyman put down a four-year, $48MM estimate, and The Athletic’s Keith Law pegged him at $15-18MM annually over a term of three to four years. To be clear, the intent in highlighting those predictions is not to criticize them — we’ve had more than our share of misses in this regard — but rather to highlight that there was a wide range of outcomes that onlookers viewed as reasonable with regard to Profar.

Whatever contract Profar and Boras sought clearly hasn’t been there to this point. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that Profar was at one point seeking a contract that’d pay him $10MM per season. It’s worth emphasizing that Kuty doesn’t specify whether that’s a current asking price or whether it’s on a multi-year pact. Regardless, Profar turned down a $7.5MM deal to remain in San Diego, so it’s not a huge shock to see there’s been a point where his camp was eyeing an eight-figure annual salary.

It’s hard to imagine Profar securing that $10MM AAV at this point, even on a one-year deal. Prices on recent free-agent signings have been more modest than early in the winter. Late signees like Matt Moore ($7.55MM), David Peralta ($6.5MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), Michael Fulmer ($4MM), Elvis Andrus ($3MM), Brad Hand ($2MM), Robbie Grossman ($2MM) and Will Smith ($1.5MM) have all come in south of that $10MM sum. No free agent has reached a $10MM AAV since Carlos Correa finalized his deal to return to the Twins on Jan. 11.

Perhaps Profar can yet buck that trend. He only just turned 30 and is coming off a decent 2022 season in which he batted .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and a career-high 36 doubles. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills, has upped his walk rate over the past couple seasons, and generally graded as an average or slightly worse defender in left field for the Padres.

That last point, in particular, is worth expanding on a bit. Many onlookers have wondered why Profar hasn’t emerged as a more viable option for the many teams in need of infield help. Profar, after all, was the game’s No. 1 overall prospect a decade ago when he was rising through the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop. However, he’s since had a pair of shoulder surgeries, moved to the other side of the second base bag, and (during his time with the A’s) developed a case of the yips that eventually pushed him to left field.

The A’s traded Profar to San Diego after just one year, and the Padres gave him all of 197 innings at second base from 2020-22 — none of which came this past season. The Friars were shorthanded enough in the infield that they signed Robinson Cano after he was released by the Mets on the heels of a .195/.233/.268 showing. That they were content to give that version of Cano 40 innings at second base but didn’t move Profar into the infield isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of his ability to play the position.

At this point, it’s hard to consider Profar anything other than a left fielder. He’s played 156 innings of center in the big leagues (2020-21 in San Diego) and 208 innings in right field (again, 2020-21 with the Padres), but neither sample drew strong or even average ratings. Profar’s average sprint speed, per Statcast, was in the 32nd percentile of MLB players in 2022. His outfield jumps were in the 37th percentile, and his 87 mph average velocity on his throws from left field ranked 95th among 156 qualified outfielders. With limited speed, below-average jumps and below-average arm strength, center or right could be a stretch for Profar.

Profar is a switch-hitter with slightly better-than-average results at the plate, modest defensive upside in left field and perhaps an emergency infield option. He walks at a high clip and puts the ball in play far more often than the standard big league hitter. The quality of that contact isn’t particularly strong (87.5 mph exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit rate, 4% barrel rate), but there’s something to be said for just putting the ball in play — particularly as shifts are more limited in 2023 and beyond. A slightly above-average offensive left fielder isn’t a star, but it’s a solid player. Jean Segura has a similar skill set in the infield, and he received $17MM on a two-year deal.

Even that type of deal might be out of reach at this point, but assuming Profar can still land a one- or two-year deal in the near future, he can obviously help a club in search of some corner outfield reinforcements. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look back in early January at which teams made the most sense for Profar based on their lack of left field production in 2022, but it seems like an exercise worth revisiting. The market and many rosters have changed since that time. Profar is now the only viable regular remaining in free agency, and several teams that might’ve made sense as a suitor back on Jan. 2 look less likely to add him now. The Rangers, for instance, have since signed Robbie Grossman. The Marlins moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center and acquired Luis Arraez to play second, which means they’ll stick with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz in left.

Let’s take a look at some clubs that still seem like they could use in left field — and perhaps why those teams haven’t yet more earnestly pursued Profar. He’d likely require somewhere that can grant him mostly regular playing time, which makes the incumbent Padres a tough fit once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and joins Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in the outfield.

Postseason Hopefuls

  • Yankees: The Yankees are one of the most oft-cited — if not the most oft-cited — speculative fits for Profar. It’s not hard to see why, considering their left fielders combined for a .224/.312/.391 output last season. Oft-injured Aaron Hicks, still owed three years and $30.5MM on his contract, and young Oswaldo Cabrera are the two favorites. The latter outproduced the former by a wide margin last season, but Hicks’ contract will probably get him another look. The Yankees are loath to step into the fourth and final luxury-tax tier, however, and signing Profar (or just about anyone, really) will put them into that bracket and come with a 90% dollar-for-dollar hit on any contract. There’s also no clear indication that Profar is a huge upgrade over in-house options. His .243/.331/.391 slash line last year isn’t that different from the .224/.312/.391 output for which the Yankees combined. Yes, Profar’s numbers would probably tick up a bit playing his home games at Yankee Stadium instead of Petco Park. But even the Yankees’ tepid left field production last year was good for a 103 wRC+; Profar was at 110 himself.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s left fielders hit .238/.285/.431 in 2022, and that includes a combined 175 productive plate appearances from Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman and William Contreras, none of whom are on the team any longer. Veterans Marcell Ozuna (.226/.274/.413 in 2022) and Eddie Rosario (.212/.259/.328) are the primary options here, with Sam Hilliard, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and non-roster invitees Kevin Pillar and Magneuris Sierra providing depth. There’s clearly room for an upgrade, but the Braves are paying Ozuna and Rosario a combined $27MM in 2023 and probably don’t want to sign a third left fielder to add to that sum. More broadly, the Braves just haven’t spent much of anything in free agency this winter; their lone big roster splash was a trade bringing Sean Murphy in from the A’s. They’re into the first tier of luxury territory, so Profar would cost them 20% penalty on top of his contract.
  • Rays: Tampa Bay has been looking for a left-handed bat for much of the winter. Profar would help to balance out the lineup, likely splitting time with Randy Arozarena in left field and at designated hitter. That could cut into Harold Ramirez‘s playing time or push him to first base more often, with Yandy Diaz sliding back to third (at the expense of Isaac Paredes). As with most Rays moves, it’d require a whole lot of moving parts and likely push some MLB-worthy bats off the roster and into the upper minors to serve as depth in the event of injuries. Profar’s offensive upside is limited, so the Rays probably feel confident they can match it with in-house options. The likely price tag hurts as well.
  • Rangers: The Rangers already signed Grossman, so perhaps they have no interest in adding another outfielder. Grossman’s not a clear everyday option in left field, though, and center fielder Leody Taveras is a little banged up, which could push Adolis Garcia from right to center early in the season. If Texas had a clear option at DH, this wouldn’t work as well, but they don’t. The Rangers could add Profar, go with him/Taveras/Garcia across the outfield when everyone’s at full strength, and use Grossman as a reserve corner outfielder and part-time DH.

Rebuilding Clubs

  • Royals: Kansas City doesn’t have a single established outfielder on the roster. They’ll go with a combination of Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Nate Eaton, catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, corner bat Hunter Dozier and, once healthy, former top prospect Drew Waters. Olivares, Isbel, Eaton, Melendez and Waters all have minor league options remaining. Non-roster vets like Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. could eventually impact this group, too, but there’s room for a solid veteran right now. Then again, the Royals waited until they’d cleared the salaries of Adalberto Mondesi and Michael A. Taylor in respective trades with the Red Sox and Twins before they even brought righty Zack Greinke back on a one-year, $8.5MM contract. They may not want to or have ownership permission to sign another free agent with a notable salary.
  • Reds: The Reds will cycle through Wil Myers, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, Nick Solak, Stuart Fairchild and perhaps non-roster veteran Chad Pinder in the outfield corners this season. Myers will see his share of time at first base, too, as Joey Votto recovers from 2022 shoulder surgery. Friedl and particularly Fraley hit well enough last year that it’s understandable if Cincinnati wants to get them some extra looks, but Fraley has been on the IL five times in the past three seasons, including a 60-day IL stint last year for knee troubles. Center fielder Nick Senzel has also had repeated health troubles. Signing Profar deepens the lineup and adds a potential deadline chip for a rebuilding Cincinnati club, but the Reds have spent under $14MM in free agency and probably view Myers as the lone corner-outfield addition they’d prefer to make.
  • Tigers: The Detroit outfield is composed largely of rebound candidates, where each of Akil Baddoo, Austin Meadows and top prospect Riley Greene will look for better results in 2023 than they had in 2022. Twenty-five-year-old Kerry Carpenter will also get his share of opportunity after a blasting 36 homers between the upper-minors and MLB. Reserve option Matt Vierling can and will at times handle all three outfield spots. From a depth standpoint, prospects Parker Meadows (Austin’s younger brother) and Justyn-Henry Malloy could both reach the big leagues in 2023, but Meadows hasn’t played above Double-A and Malloy has only eight games there.

Realistically, you could squint and shoehorn Profar onto a number of teams. He’s not going to be so highly compensated that he couldn’t be pushed to a bench role eventually or even traded, and enough teams have at least one shaky option in the outfield corners that you could justify signing him as an upgrade. At this point, it could take a spring injury to really motivate a team to sign him at a decent salary, though.

The other element at play here is the looming World Baseball Classic. Profar, a native of Curacao, is suiting up for the Netherlands and could look to use the tournament to showcase himself for MLB clubs. The WBC will give him some reps to help get ready for the season, and it’s possible that a big league team will suffer an outfield injury while the tournament is ongoing. If that happens, Profar could pitch himself as a game-ready replacement who could join up with a new team and be ready to step right onto the Opening Day roster.

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The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

By | at March 6, 2023 11:32pm CDT

An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

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The Cubs-Dodgers Outfield Swap Puts Them In Different Positions

By | at March 6, 2023 6:35pm CDT

The Cubs and Dodgers didn’t make a trade this offseason, but a series of transactions effectively added up to one. Here’s what I mean.

  • August of 2022: Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announces they will release Jason Heyward at the end of the season.
  • November of 2022: Heyward officially released.
  • November of 2022: Cody Bellinger is non-tendered by the Dodgers.
  • December of 2022: Cubs sign Bellinger to one-year deal.
  • December of 2022: Dodgers sign Heyward to a minor league deal.

Both clubs had a long-tenured outfielder that was posting disappointing results. In both cases, they could have kept the player for one more year. Heyward still had one season left on his contract while Bellinger still had one arbitration season remaining. But in both cases, the club decided to cut bait, then swooped in to collect the other team’s castoff.

Now each club is going to be trying to coax a bounceback season from their respective new outfielder. In a vacuum, the Cubs are more likely to succeed. Bellinger has struggled over the past two years, producing a dismal .165/.240/.302 batting line in 2021 and then a subpar .210/.265/.389 slash last year. However, he was above average in 2020 and was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019. He launched 47 home runs in that MVP season while hitting .305/.406/.629 for a wRC+ of 161. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his defensive work, being deemed to be worth 7.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Heyward, on the other hand, has never really touched that kind of ceiling, and certainly not recently. He had a strong showing at the plate in 2020 but hasn’t been an above average hitter in a full season since 2015. He hit .293/.359/.439 for the Cardinals that year, leading to a 121 wRC+. He also stole 23 bases and was strong in the field, leading to a 5.6 fWAR tally. However, he’s been well below that type of production since then, including being below replacement level last year.

Bellinger was himself below replacement level in 2021, but that was at least partly caused by shoulder issues. Both players have struggled in recent years but Bellinger was an MVP not too long ago. Heyward has never been on that tier and hasn’t been close in almost a decade. Bellinger also plays the more premier position, as he figures to be the Cubs’ everyday center fielder. Heyward has played center on occasion but has primarily been a right fielder in his career. Given that Bellinger is only 27 years old and Heyward is 33, the likelihood of a return to form would seem to be stronger with Bellinger.

The Cubs seem to have backed the horse more likely to end up in the winner’s circle, but they also have way more on the line. Heyward still had $22MM left on his deal when he was released and the Cubs are still on the hook for that. Assuming he is eventually added to the Dodgers’ roster, they will only be responsible for paying him the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay.

Bellinger, on the other hand, isn’t owed anything by the Dodgers since they didn’t tender him a contract for this year. The Cubs brought him aboard by guaranteeing him $17.5MM, in the form of a $12.5MM salary and $5MM buyout on a mutual option for 2024. That means that the Cubs are paying the salaries of both players, with the figures combining to be worth almost $40MM. The Dodgers aren’t really committed to either player right now and won’t even be paying meaningful money if Heyward does make the team.

Heyward’s chances of cracking the roster seem to have increased lately. With Gavin Lux potentially out for the entire season, it seems that Chris Taylor will be spending more time on the infield and less in the outfield. That subtracts from the club’s outfield depth a bit, perhaps increasing the need for a non-roster invitee like Heyward.

There’s also a bit of positive buzz around Heyward in spring so far. Last month, Freddie Freeman told reporters, including Alden González of ESPN, that Heyward had altered his stance and “might have unlocked something.” Heyward has four hits in ten at-bats so far this spring, including a pair of home runs. A few good spring games don’t mean much and it’s dangerous to draw meaningful conclusions from them, but it’s nonetheless encouraging, especially given the club’s penchant for helping journeymen find the best versions of themselves. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Heyward is impressing L.A. officials and expected to make the team.

Again, this isn’t to get carried away. The season hasn’t even begun and a few good spring games shouldn’t make us forget about Heyward’s past six full seasons. It’s entirely possible that he continues to disappoint and this hot spring eventually becomes a footnote. But the Dodgers have little to lose in that case. It might be a bit embarrassing if Bellinger returns to form after they let him go for nothing. But at least they saved his salary, which was projected to be $18.1MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They were then able to redirect that money into players like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez, who will cost $23MM combined this year.

The Cubs are perhaps facing a much more cringeworthy worst-case scenario. There is some non-zero chance that they have to watch Heyward thrive in Los Angeles while Bellinger struggles in Chicago, as they pay the salaries of both players. Time will tell whether that scenario is likely or not, but the Cubs have almost forty million reasons to hope it doesn’t come true.

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

By | at March 6, 2023 2:51pm CDT

After five straight dismal seasons, the Orioles finally showed signs of life in 2022. Their farm system truly started producing for the big league club and they won 83 games, their best tally since 2016. That led to hopes of an aggressive winter, with general manager Mike Elias fanning those flames as the offseason was ramping up. But in the end, the club avoided big splashes and stuck to a few modest moves. The future is still bright in Baltimore as the organization is loaded with young talent, but a true pedal-to-the-metal move hasn’t materialized yet.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $23MM
Total spending: $23MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” general manager Mike Elias said in August. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans.  I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying.  I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

Here’s another Elias comment from August, relayed by Dan Connolly of The Athletic: “I think it’s liftoff from here for this team.”

Those comments surely led to a wide spectrum of interpretations and expectations among the club’s fanbase. Some might have been on the more skeptical side, while others might have been dreaming of a big splash such as one of the top shortstops or an elite starter. The club reportedly did sniff around the “Big Four” shortstops but never really seemed to be close to getting anything done there. They were also connected to starters like Carlos Rodón and Jameson Taillon and others. But again, they never really seemed to close to winning those bids and those players ultimately signed elsewhere.

The club did make a couple of moves for their rotation, but nothing approaching the level of a Rodón or a Taillon. They turned down an $11MM option over veteran Jordan Lyles, opting instead for the $1MM buyout. A few weeks later, they redirected the $10MM they saved to another veteran innings eater in Kyle Gibson. On the surface, that actually seems like something of a downgrade, as Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA last year to Gibson’s 5.05. One could dig deeper and find that Gibson had better peripherals and a lower FIP, and this will perhaps turn into a savvy swap. But in the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a move that is essentially net neutral.

The other new addition to the rotation is Cole Irvin, acquired from the A’s with each team getting a new prospect in the deal as well. Irvin is somewhat similar to Gibson in that he’s expected to be a competent but not elite member of the rotation. He made 62 starts for the A’s over the past two years with a 4.11 ERA, but will be moving from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum to the AL East. Oriole Park is a bit kinder to pitchers since they moved the left field fence back last year, but Irvin will still have to take the mound in the less-friendly stadiums around the division while facing some strong lineups. He has done well over the past couple of seasons and is cheap since he’s yet to reach arbitration, but there’s some risk here.

There were also some modest additions made to the position player mix. Adam Frazier was brought aboard with a one-year deal to essentially replace Rougned Odor as the veteran second baseman. He’s coming off a down year at the plate but is generally graded well with the glove. His bat has oscillated hot and cold over the years, and he’ll be a nice piece if he can have one of those good seasons. If one of the Orioles’ many infield prospect eventually pushes for a larger share of the second base reps, Frazier has plenty of experience in left field, too.

The club also bought low by acquiring James McCann from the Mets, as he’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons. He still has two years remaining on his four-year, $40.6MM deal, but the Mets are paying down most of it. The O’s will only be responsible for paying $5MM total over those two years. With Adley Rutschman firmly cemented as the backstop for years to come, the O’s only need McCann to be a serviceable backup. If his bat rebounds to where it was in 2019 and 2020, that would be a nice bonus, but they’re not relying on it. Notably, McCann has a strong track record against lefties (despite a poor showing in 2022), and the switch-hitting Rutschman was far better as a left-handed hitter than as a right-handed hitter during his debut season. The O’s aren’t going to immediately relegate Rutschman to platoon status, but McCann still gives them some nice balance in their catching duo.

And what else? Mychal Givens got $5MM to bring an established veteran presence to the bullpen. The depth was fortified by waiver claims on players like Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Díaz, twice in the latter case. Both players were eventually outrighted to serve as non-roster depth alongside minor league signees like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero. That’s about it.

As mentioned earlier, fans likely had varying ideas of what to expect this winter with those comments from Elias, but it’s hard to really feel like this is what he had in mind. The club’s current payroll is effectively stagnant relative to the end of last year, with Roster Resource putting a $63MM figure on both tallies. That places them 29th in the league, with only the A’s behind them. After saying he would “significantly” escalate the payroll, it’s hard to characterize that as anything but a disappointment. Was it “a lot of fun,” as Elias predicted, to swap Lyles for Gibson and then add Irvin, McCann, Frazier and Givens?

The disparity between the promise and the delivery might be chalked up to the changes in the offseason environment. Most of the marquee free agents beat the industry projections, often by wide margins. Xander Bogaerts, for instance, got around $100MM more than most expected. Even mid-rotation starters like Taillon and Taijuan Walker did much better than their projections. Perhaps Elias expected to come away with more here and was simply priced out. There would be little sense in raising hopes if he had no intention in coming through.

Regardless of how or why it happened, the O’s are going into 2023 with a fairly similar roster to last year, which isn’t really a bad thing. The club’s farm system truly started to bear fruit at the big league level last year, with prospects like Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers and others debuting and showing strong potential. There’s even more coming through the pipeline with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the best pitching prospects in the league, potentially jumping right into the Opening Day rotation here in 2023.

Those should be fixtures on the big league team this year and for years to come, alongside other incumbents like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and others. The pitching seems a little less exciting, with Gibson and Irvin joined by some other hurlers that are still trying to cement themselves as viable big leaguers, such as Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and Tyler Wells.

Despite all those prospects jumping up to the big leagues, the system still has more. After Rodriguez, the club also has highly-regarded prospects like DL Hall, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday. Aside from Holliday, those guys will all be in the upper levels of the minors and could join the team this year depending on how the year progresses.

Overall, the club is still in great shape for the future, as they are loaded with young and controllable talent. The lack of recent spending means that there’s close to nothing on the books going forward. But it was hoped by many that the young core would be supplemented by aggressive moves to add established veterans. Elias asserted that was the plan and did bring in some complementary pieces, but not really at the level he seemed to imply.

Leaving aside the players for a moment, another key storyline for the Orioles this winter was the apparent turmoil within the Angelos family. Peter Angelos has owned the team for decades but has been suffering poor health since he collapsed in 2017. It seems that his wife Georgia and their two sons, John and Louis, have been in disagreement about how to proceed with the franchise. It was reported in June of last year that John had been approved by MLB as Baltimore’s “control person” but with Louis suing his brother over those developments and others. Georgia then filed a countersuit against Louis, alleging he fabricated claims in his own attempt to seize power. Despite that seemingly ugly battle, an agreement was reached in February whereby all parties agreed to drop their lawsuits.

Amid all those lawsuits were accusations about a potential sale of the club, with John and Georgia both accused of trying to explore the possibility at times. Alongside this, the club declined a five-year lease extension at Camden Yards in February. That creates some uncertainty about the club’s future in Baltimore, but it seems that this is merely a temporary issue. The club is hoping to get a new deal in place that’s 10-15 years in length so that the Maryland Stadium Authority can qualify for a $600MM loan for stadium upgrades. John Angelos has been adamant that the club is not looking to relocate, nor are they seriously pursuing a sale. He’s also said they would like to get into the top half of the league in terms of spending at some point.

That provides some hope for the future, but that didn’t come to fruition this winter. As mentioned, the club’s payroll is higher than last year but still just 29th among the 30 clubs in the league. Despite a winter devoid of splashy moves, the on-field product is still in decent shape. They won 83 games last year and still have plenty of prospects on the rise. However, young players don’t always progress in a linear fashion, and this particular group will be trying to compete in what is arguably the strongest division in the league. There’s light over the horizon, but it’s still not clear how close the new dawn really is.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason?

  • C 44% (1,239)
  • D 26% (727)
  • B 18% (516)
  • F 8% (232)
  • A 4% (101)

Total votes: 2,815

In conjunction with the Orioles’ offseason review, we held an Orioles-focused chat on March 7. You can click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

By | at March 4, 2023 7:33am CDT

In conjunction with this review, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk will be holding a Nationals-centric live chat later today to further discuss the team’s offseason.  Click here to submit questions in advance.

With a focus on inexpensive, short-term veteran contracts this offseason, the Nationals are still aiming for the future as the team continues its rebuild.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: approximately $16.25MM
Total spending: approximately $23.25MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Victor Robles, OF: One year, $2.325MM (Nationals hold $3.3MM club option for 2024; if option is declined, Nats still hold arbitration control over Robles for 2024)

Notable Losses

Ted Lerner, the Nationals’ first official owner after its move to Washington, passed away in February at age 97.  Though Mark Lerner (Ted’s son) has been in control of the franchise since 2018, the sad news of the Lerner family patriarch’s passing seemed to represent something of a symbolic end of an era for the Nationals as ownership questions continue to circle the organization.  It has been almost a year since the Lerner family started to explore the possibility of selling the ballclub, yet even though Ted Leonsis had seemingly emerged as the favorite, it remains to be seen if Leonsis or anyone will up finalizing a deal due to the still-unsettled dispute between the Nationals and Orioles over MASN broadcast rights.

The uncertainty at the ownership level is matched in the front office and in the dugout, since president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are only under contract through the 2023 season.  And, as the Nationals enter the second full season of an all-out rebuild, it remains to seen if any of the club’s current young talents will break out and be part of the proverbial “next contending Nats team.”

To this end, Washington will give CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, and Keibert Ruiz full runs as everyday players this season.  Lane Thomas, Alex Call, and Victor Robles are a bit older than those youngsters and Call was a rookie himself in 2022, but the three outfielders will get another opportunity to be lineup regulars.  (For Robles, this may be something of a last chance after three underwhelming years at the plate, though Robles had an excellent defensive season in 2022.)  The 30-year-old Joey Meneses is the relative greybeard of the group, and yet the Nationals will certainly give Meneses lots of playing time as the team evaluates just exactly what they have in a player coming off an unexpectedly dominant rookie season.

Meneses will be moved around the lineup as a first baseman, DH, and corner outfielder in 2023, and with Meneses providing pop with his right-handed bat, Washington brought a couple of lefty swingers to town as complements.  Corey Dickerson and Dominic Smith also figure to get their share of DH at-bats, with Dickerson also seeing time as a left fielder and Smith likely to play first base, though Smith also has a good deal of experience in left field.

Dickerson has a below-average 97 wRC+ over the last three seasons, hitting .266/.313/.403 in 872 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.  Beyond just the league-wide interruptions caused by the pandemic and the lockout in that time period, Dickerson also had to deal with injuries and some personal tragedy, so the veteran is certainly hoping to focus solely on baseball as he enters his age-34 season.  Washington is likely to use Dickerson almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, given how his numbers and playing time against southpaws have diminished in recent years.

In Smith, the Nationals hope they’ve found a bounce-back candidate who might be particularly motivated to produce for another NL East team.  Smith’s decade in the Mets organization was marked by a lot of tumult, as he faced trade rumors, questions about his conditioning, reduced playing time, defensive struggles as a left fielder (a position change forced by Pete Alonso‘s emergence as the Mets’ next star first baseman), and finally a non-tender last November.

Still, Smith also delivered some production at the MLB level, with an impressive .299/.366/.571 slash line over 396 PA during the 2019-20 seasons.  Away from the New York drama and into regular playing time with a rebuilding team out of the spotlight, perhaps Smith can rebound with a change of scenery.  D.C. isn’t the only team that shares this belief, as the Royals, Rays, Cubs, and Padres all reportedly had some level of interest before he finally signed with Washington.

Ex-star prospects like Smith were a target area for Rizzo this winter, as the Nationals also added such former top-100 names as Michael Chavis, Franklin Barreto, and Anthony Banda on minor league contracts, while Jeter Downs was claimed off waivers from the Red Sox.  Getting a late-bloomer breakout from any of these players would count as a big win for the Nats’ rebuild, and there’s no real risk involved for Washington in taking a look at these players for minimal acquisition costs.

Jeimer Candelario is perhaps the only one of the Nationals’ veteran signings who is somewhat blocking one of the District’s young talents, yet Carter Kieboom is just starting to work as a DH in Spring Training as he continues to recover from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire 2022 season.  With Kieboom’s ability to play third base up in the air, the Nationals moved quickly to sign Candelario soon after he entered the open market in November.

Candelario is another player with some very recent success under his belt, as he hit .278/.356/.458 (125 wRC+) over 832 PA in 2020-21. He led the majors with 42 doubles in 2021.  However, both his slash numbers and most of his Statcast metrics fell off a cliff last season, as Candelario hit only .217/.272/.361 with 13 homers in 467 PA.  Projected for a $7MM salary in his final arbitration year, Candelario was instead non-tendered by a Detroit team looking for a fresh start under new president of baseball ops Scott Harris.

While the Nats certainly needed help all over the diamond, their lineup wasn’t as big of a problem as their rotation in 2022, yet the starting five is another area where the Nationals are counting on the youngsters.  Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, and MacKenzie Gore are all penciled in for regular turns in the rotation if healthy, with the Nationals hoping for some breakouts while being prepared to absorb more early-career growing pains from the trio.

Amidst the District’s spate of one-year contracts, Trevor Williams‘ two-year, $13MM deal marked the only multi-year commitment of the offseason.  The right-hander has posted some respectable numbers as both a starter and reliever over his seven Major League seasons, primarily working as a swingman over the last two years with the Mets.  This flexibility could allow the Nats to eventually shift Williams to the bullpen if other rotation options solidify themselves, but he’ll work as a starter to begin the 2023 campaign.

Seth Lugo and Jordan Lyles were two other pitchers linked to the Nationals on the offseason rumor mill, and the team also brought back a familiar face in Erasmo Ramirez. but their other forays into the starting market resulted in minor league deals.  Wily Peralta and Chad Kuhl provide further rotation depth or possible swingman usage, depending on what the Nationals get out of the three youngsters, Williams, and the struggling Patrick Corbin, who is looking to recover from three consecutive mediocre seasons.

Unfortunately for Stephen Strasburg, he recently suffered a setback in his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and he remains a wild card in the Nats’ plans since it isn’t certain when (or even if) he’ll be able to pitch again.  With only 31 1/3 innings on Strasburg’s record since the start of the 2020 season, it would count as progress just to get the former All-Star back onto the mound at any point this year.

Erasmo Ramirez is another pitcher with swingman ability, though Washington used him almost exclusively as a reliever in 2022 (with two “starts” that were essentially opener outings).  After signing a minor league deal last winter, Ramirez ended up as a nice bargain for the Nationals, as he delivered a 2.92 ERA and an elite 4.0% walk rate over 86 1/3 innings.  That performance earned him a guaranteed $1MM big league contract to return to D.C., and Ramirez is likely to again be deployed in a long relief role.

Ramirez joins another familiar face in Sean Doolittle, who also re-signed with the Nats on a minor league deal as he continues to work his way back from an internal brace procedure in his left elbow.  For a team that usually has something of a revolving door in the bullpen, Washington was relatively quiet on the relief pitching front this offseason, though Thad Ward (the first overall pick of the Rule 5 draft) and minor league signee Alex Colome represent some interesting additions.

Colome has been solid to excellent for most of his decade in the big leagues, apart from a rough 5.74 ERA over 47 innings with the Rockies last season.  A 4.46 SIERA and a .333 BABIP provide some indication that Colome was at least a little unlucky, and a high BABIP is particularly harmful to a pitcher with a hefty 55.6% grounder rate.  While Colome’s home/away splits were pretty equally mediocre last season, getting out of Coors Field might provide some help for the 34-year-old.

As per usual for any rebuilding team, any of these short-term new arrivals might find themselves on other rosters by the trade deadline.  Williams and Smith (via contract and arbitration) are both controlled through 2024, yet that might not be a big impediment if they’re playing well enough for another team to make a tempting trade offer.

If Washington’s plan for the trade deadline seems pretty set, the organization can only hope that it will have more clarity on the whole by the summer — whether that translates to the futures of Rizzo and Martinez, progress on a possible sale to a new owner, or just some simple on-field progress in the rebuild.  Given both the holes on the roster and the overall strength of the NL East, the Nationals will be hard-pressed to improve much on their 55-107 record from a year ago, and even avoiding a 100-loss campaign might count as a minor victory.

How would you grade the Nationals’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

How would you grade the Nationals' offseason?

  • C 34% (508)
  • D 30% (452)
  • F 18% (268)
  • B 14% (204)
  • A 3% (51)

Total votes: 1,483

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