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Poll: Who Will Sign Carlos Rodon?

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Carlos Rodón is the top remaining starting pitcher in free agency and unsurprisingly has many suitors. The Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets, Orioles and Dodgers have been connected to him at various points throughout the offseason. However, many of those teams have since signed other pitchers, potentially taking them out of the running. Also, the latest report suggests that Rodón and his representatives are looking for a deal of seven years or longer with a guarantee of $200MM or more. That’s well beyond the five years and $140MM that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason and likely prices out some of those clubs. So, who will actually pull it off? Let’s take a look at the options.

Yankees

It is reportedly Rodón’s preference to make Yankee Stadium his home ballpark and the team is interested in him as well. That’s an excellent starting point but the fit gets more complicated from there. The Yanks would apparently prefer to limit their offers to the four- or five-year range, which is something that would have to be overcome in negotiations. It’s not surprising that the club has concerns about the long-term picture, since the future payrolls are already getting filled in. Aaron Judge is going to be making $40MM per season for the next nine years. Gerrit Cole still has six more years at $36MM per. Giancarlo Stanton has five more years between $25MM and $32MM, along with an option for 2028. Even if the club plans on turning that down at that time, it comes with a hefty $10MM buyout. DJ LeMahieu adds another $15MM per year for the next four seasons.

Even in the short term, there might be issues. There have been reports that the club would like to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, as crossing that line would lead to much higher taxation rates and the club’s top 2023 draft pick moving back 10 spots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $266MM, not too far from the $273MM third tier. Adding a salary near $30MM for Rodón would push them past that line and also past the top tier of $293MM.

From a baseball standpoint, adding another starter makes sense. The club’s rotation currently consists of Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. They could fill in the final slot with Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt and be in fine shape, but both Severino and Montas missed significant time with shoulder injuries in 2022. One more arm would bump German and Schmidt into depth roles and provide extra cover for an injury absence, but will they go for a top-of-the-market option like Rodón?

Red Sox

The Red Sox also have some long-term contracts on the books, though at lesser terms than the Yankees. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are each under control for five more seasons, though their combined salaries are just barely over $40MM in most of those seasons. That makes them roughly equal to what the Yanks are paying Judge alone, never mind Cole or Stanton. In the short term, Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $192MM, meaning they could easily add a Rodón-sized salary and stay under the first luxury tax threshold of $233MM, if they so desire.

From an on-field perspective, it also makes sense given their rotation question marks. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Garrett Whitlock has done more bullpen work in his career so far, with only nine starts in the majors at this point. Brayan Bello just debuted in 2022 and made 11 starts of middling quality. Nick Pivetta stayed healthy in 2022 but he’s never posted an ERA better than 4.53. There’s plenty of room for upgrades in there.

However, the Sox just watched their franchise shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, ship off to San Diego. They apparently made a six-year, $160MM offer that was more than $100MM below the $280MM the Padres gave him. It was even below the $189MM MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason, before spending went wild and it was clear it would take much more than that. After such a half-hearted attempt to secure a beloved franchise icon, are they really going to pivot and put in a harder charge for a new face like Rodón?

Twins

The entire Minnesota offseason has seemed to revolve around their hopes of bringing Carlos Correa back. The club has generally been pretty quiet, apart from acquiring Kyle Farmer as a Correa safety net and signing Christian Vázquez to be their catcher. They reportedly offered Correa ten years and $285MM, but he instead went to the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. Minnesota’s offer was actually a higher average annual value, but it was a significantly lower overall guarantee.

The question now is what their backup plan is. They were willing to five Correa $28.5MM per season, but would they have the same willingness for someone like Rodón? They certainly have the long-term payroll space to do it, as Byron Buxton and Vázquez are the only two players signed beyond the upcoming campaign. Vázquez will get a modest $10MM salary through 2025 while Buxton is only guaranteed $15MM per season through 2028 with various incentives available. In the short-term, the club’s payroll is only at $107MM for 2023, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s Opening Day figure of $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

From a baseball perspective, the club has many rotation options and doesn’t strictly need an upgrade. However, Rodón would easily jump to the top of the chart and could allow the club to trade someone else. Currently, their rotation mix consists of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and others. Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and could be back later in the season. Gray and Maeda have reportedly drawn trade interest, which could allow the club to make a splash on Rodón and then use their starters to upgrade elsewhere. The largest contract in franchise history is the $184MM extension they gave to Joe Mauer back in 2010. They were willing to smash that record for Correa but what about Rodón?

Giants

The Giants have been quite aggressive this winter, already handing out a mega deal for Correa as well as smaller but still significant deals for Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those latter two deals bolstered their rotation, with Manaea and Stripling now joining Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Jakob Junis as rotation options. That already seems like too many starters, though the club is apparently still in on Rodón.

From a long-term payroll point of view, they could certainly do it. Haniger and Correa are the only contracts on the books by 2025 and Correa the only one beyond that. In the short term, Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $190MM and their CBT figure at $206MM. They are getting near their franchise high payroll of $201MM, per Cot’s, though that was back in 2018. The CBT figure would tiptoe over the $233MM luxury tax line by adding a Rodón-sized deal, but they could pivot and trade one of their other starters to get back under. Wood is making $12.5MM in 2023 before reaching free agency, Cobb $9MM plus an option for 2024, DeSclafani $12MM in each of the next two seasons. Those three would all surely have some degree of trade value, given the high prices for free agent starters this winter. The club is also looking for outfield and catching help, but maybe a Rodón signing could eventually allow them to plug those holes via trade.

Cardinals

Though the Cardinals have been connected to Rodón, it was reported yesterday that they are unlikely to meet his asking price. That’s not exactly shocking as the largest contract in club history is the five-year, $130MM Paul Goldschmidt extension. The most they’ve ever given a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016. To suddenly jump up to $200MM would be quite a surprise. Their payroll for 2023 is also at $164MM, per Roster Resource, which is beyond last year’s figure and a match with their franchise high, per Cot’s. They may be willing to increase payroll this year, but going $30MM beyond their previous record would be a surprise.

The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year. Similar to the Twins and Giants, they could sign Rodón and then flip one of their current pitchers, but the financial situation is probably an obstacle.

Rangers

The Rangers were connected to Rodón as far back as October. At the time, it made perfect sense since the club’s rotation going into the winter consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch of crash test dummies. Since then, however, they have re-signed Martín Pérez, traded for Jake Odorizzi and signed free agents Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. That group, along with Gray and Dane Dunning, puts the club’s rotation in solid shape, certainly much better than 2022. The club reportedly met with Rodón after the deGrom signing, though that was shortly before the Heaney deal was announced.

The club could certainly sign Rodón and bump Odorizzi into a sixth starter/swingman role until someone gets hurt. However, the club’s CBT figure is currently $204MM, per Roster Resource. Adding Rodón would get them near or above the luxury tax threshold of $233MM. In terms of pure payroll, the club’s current $181MM figure is already more than $15MM beyond their previous franchise record, per Cot’s. Would they be willing to add another $30MM on top of that, when they are still looking for outfield upgrades as well?

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were connected to Rodón in a limited way, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. That signing and the club’s other moves have shot the payroll up to record heights and put them into luxury tax territory for the first time. Roster Resource puts their CBT figure just barely over the $233MM line. The $209MM payroll is well beyond last year’s $171MM, their previous high, per Cot’s.

The club’s current rotation would consist of Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and José Berríos, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White options for the back end. They are reportedly still open for upgrades, though adding a monster deal for Rodón seems unlikely when they are already so far into uncharted territory in terms of the finances. It’s much more likely they search for a more modest upgrade, as they were connected to Johnny Cueto yesterday.

Mets

The Mets reportedly met with Rodón back in late November, but they have since signed Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Those three, along with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, give the club a full rotation. The Mets are reportedly even thinking about trading Carrasco to open the final rotation slot for someone like David Peterson or Tylor Megill.

It would be foolish to completely rule the Mets out on anyone at this point, given that there doesn’t seem to be any limit to their spending. The payroll is already in record territory, with Roster Resource putting them down for $336MM and a CBT figure of $350MM. They are set to be second-time payors and are now paying a 90% tax on all spending since they are way beyond the top CBT line of $293MM. That means signing Rodón to a contract around $30MM per year would actually lead to the club paying about $60MM.

They have larger needs in the bullpen so spending huge money on Rodón doesn’t seem especially likely. However, they were just connected to Correa before he signed with the Giants, so maybe there’s still some big cash left on the pile.

Orioles

The Orioles are the best fit for Rodón in terms of long-term payroll. They have literally no one guaranteed any money for 2024. Of course, many of their players will earn arbitration salaries for that season, but they are committed to nothing. For 2023, Roster Resource pegs their payroll at a meager $52MM, less than what the Mets are set to pay in taxes alone.

The rotation could surely use an extra arm, as it currently consists of Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Kyle Bradish, Mike Baumann and DL Hall. Those guys all have limited track records and are still works in progress, apart from Gibson who was brought in as a veteran stabilizer. Prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely join the group at some point, as will John Means, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April. But there’s plenty of room for upgrades.

The main argument against a Rodón signing is the track record of the O’s under general manager Mike Elias. The club has been aggressively rebuilding and avoiding long-term commitments. The club’s last free agent signing longer than one-year was for Alex Cobb back in 2018, prior to the hire of Elias. It’s much more likely that they target a lower tier of free agency, in line with their Gibson signing and their reported interest in Michael Wacha.

Dodgers

The Dodgers were connected to Rodón back in November, but they have since agreed to terms with Noah Syndergaard. He slots into a rotation that also features Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, with prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove around as depth. There are injury concerns in there, as Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Syndergaard was healthy in 2022 but it was his first full season back from Tommy John and his velocity didn’t fully return.

It’s not impossible to think that they would add another starter, but they generally prefer short-term deals. They signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year deals last offseason and have done the same now with Syndergaard. The last time they signed a pitcher to a deal longer than three years was Brandon McCarthy’s four-year deal going into 2015. There have also been reports that they would like to reset their luxury tax status this year so that they can be a “first-time” payor for 2024. Roster Resource has their CBT number at $201MM. That’s well shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold, but Trevor Bauer is appealing his suspension at the moment. If he gets it overturned, that puts over $30MM back onto that number, taking up the space that they could theoretically use on Rodón. A decision on that is expected in the next month or so. Until they get clarity on that, they might avoid huge commitments.

Mystery Team

Perhaps some team that hasn’t been connected to Rodón in rumors will swoop in and surprise us all. The Rays are never big spenders but were apparently willing to consider splurging on Freddie Freeman last year and Brandon Nimmo this year. The Mariners have been surprisingly quiet this winter and could be open to trading Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Cubs have signed Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger this winter but haven’t yet made the big splash many expected. They’ve been often connected to the shortstops and could still go after Dansby Swanson but the rotation has plenty of question marks. The Padres have already spent a bunch but apparently just missed on Bassitt. Do they have one more surprise up their sleeve?

Which of these paths makes the most sense to you? Have your say in the poll below!

Who Will Sign Carlos Rodón?
Yankees 42.24% (6,291 votes)
Mystery Team 14.61% (2,176 votes)
Giants 9.17% (1,365 votes)
Twins 5.50% (819 votes)
Orioles 5.38% (801 votes)
Red Sox 5.06% (754 votes)
Rangers 4.32% (643 votes)
Cardinals 4.30% (640 votes)
Dodgers 3.96% (589 votes)
Mets 2.89% (431 votes)
Blue Jays 2.57% (383 votes)
Total Votes: 14,892

(poll link for app users)

How Much Can The Dodgers Do Under The Luxury Tax?

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We’re now over a month into the offseason and it’s been a strong one for the players, with many of the top free agents landing contracts that have surpassed expectations. While there’s been plenty of aggression from teams that haven’t traditionally been top dogs like the Mets, Padres and Rangers, the Dodgers have been unusually quiet so far.

The Dodgers opened the 2022 season with a payroll of $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. At the end of the year, they had a large crop of players hit free agency, wiping a huge chunk of change off the books. Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney were all making noteworthy money in 2022 before hitting the open market, with a few midseason pickups and role players departing as well. The Dodgers then cleared out even more money by non-tendering Cody Bellinger and his projected $18.1MM arbitration salary as well as declining Justin Turner’s $16MM club option for 2023.

With all of that, it was certainly a possibility that the club could come into the winter spending wildly and getting their payroll back up to last year’s levels. But while the free agents have been coming off the board with eye-popping deals, the Dodgers have largely been laying in the cut so far. Since the offseason began, the club has re-signed Kershaw and added Shelby Miller on one-year deals, for $20MM and $1.5MM, respectively. Those contracts have brought the club’s payroll for 2023 up to $173MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $189MM.

That leaves the Dodgers plenty of room to work with, in a sense. That pure payroll figure is more than $100MM below what they carried last year and that CBT figure is more than $40MM shy of the lowest CBT threshold. It’s possible they are simply playing a long game, waiting for the frenzy of the early offseason to die down and searching for bargains later in the winter. But there are also reasons to suspect they might continue being fairly inactive.

For one thing, there’s the Trevor Bauer situation to consider. The club signed him to a three-year, $102MM deal going into the 2021 season, though Bauer only made 17 starts for them. He was placed on administrative leave in July 2021 while the league investigated assault allegations against him. In April 2022, he was given a two-year suspension, covering the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. That suspension was without pay, wiping Bauer’s salary from the club’s commitments.

However, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently wrote about Bauer’s attempt to appeal that suspension, with a decision from an arbiter expected either this month or next month. If the suspension were to be completely overturned, the Dodgers will have to pay him for both 2022 and 2023, a $32MM salary for each. That’s true even if the club immediately releases Bauer after that decision. That’s a decent amount of money in itself, but Shaikin points out the Dodgers were luxury tax payors this year and would potentially have to pay extra fees on Bauer’s reinstated salary as well. In terms of 2023, the club’s CBT figure would jump to over $220MM. Shaikin also points out it’s possible the suspension is merely reduced, which would leave the club on the hook for some but not all of that money.

That decision will have a big impact on the club’s financial outlook going forward, so it stands to reason they want to wait and get some clarity there before making huge commitments. There are also more traditional baseball reasons for playing the waiting game, though. The departure of those aforementioned free agents has created many holes in the roster, but they might be able to fill them internally with their strong crop of prospects. On Baseball America’s most recent top 100 list, the Dodgers featured seven players, six of them in the top 52 spots. MLB Pipeline also has seven Dodgers on their list. FanGraphs is a bit less bullish but still puts five young Dodgers in the top 100.

Not only are these prospects highly regarded around the sport, they mostly are close to the majors or already there. Right-hander Ryan Pepiot made his MLB debut in 2022 while fellow righties Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone reached Triple-A. Third baseman Miguel Vargas cracked the majors this year while second baseman Michael Busch spent most of the year in Triple-A. Outfielder Andy Pages isn’t far behind, having spent the year in Double-A. Catcher Diego Cartaya is a bit further away, having spent most of this season in High-A, but he fared well and will likely be in Double-A to start 2023.

It’s possible the club thinks it’s time to let these younger players step up and start folding over a new leaf. “Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors,” Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten told Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times last month. “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.” That certainly suggests the club is willing to let their pricey free agents walk and attempt to replace them with younger and cheaper alternatives.

There’s no guarantee a prospect will come up and succeed at the major league level, no matter how high their praise among evaluators. But teams can’t build successful rosters through free agency alone and have to at least produce some talent from their own pipeline. There is certainly risk in trying to achieve that, but the Dodgers aren’t in a terrible place right now, on paper. Despite the many departures and modest activity thus far, the club’s overall projected WAR currently ranks sixth in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.

The club will surely be looking to make improvements there, though how aggressive they will be is to be seen. It’s been suggested by some the team would like to stay under the luxury tax in 2023 in order to spend more aggressively next winter when Shohei Ohtani is likely to be the top free agent available. As a reminder, the CBT carries increasing penalties for clubs that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers have paid the tax in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023. However, if they stayed under this year, they would reset and could cross the line again in 2024 as a “first-time” payor and significantly lower penalties. With so many contracts coming off the books and so many prospects ready to debut, it would seem now is a good time to flip that reset switch. But if that is indeed the plan, the Bauer decision will loom even larger. If the suspension is upheld, the club has over $40MM to work with before nearing the line, but the number is closer to $10MM if the decision is overturned.

Either way, there’s still plenty of talent currently on the roster. As mentioned, FanGraphs considers them the sixth-best club in the majors at the moment. The rotation is in decent shape with Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May taking up four spots. There are some injury question marks with that group but it’s got a lot of upside. They also have the aforementioned prospects as options for the back-end and depth, with Pepiot, Miller and Stone in the mix. The bullpen has some exciting young pitchers in Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol.

There’s plenty of talent on the position player side as well, with many of them capable of moving around to other positions as needed. Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game and will be behind the plate. The club is reportedly comfortable with Gavin Lux moving from second base to shortstop. Super utility guy Chris Taylor could take over the keystone for him. At the corners, Freddie Freeman will have first base spoken for while Vargas could get an extended audition at the hot corner. Max Muncy can spend some time at first, second and third while also acting as the designated hitter somewhat regularly. In the outfield, Mookie Betts will have one position spoken for while Trayce Thompson should have another. That leaves one spot open for either Busch or James Outman, a prospect a bit behind Busch on the rankings but one who’s posted huge numbers in the upper minors and has already made his MLB debut. There’s also the possibility Muncy takes over second base while Taylor spend significant time in the outfield.

If the club has $40MM to work with, there are plenty of ways for them to spread it around to improve the team while still leaving room for their younger players to take a step forward. Adding a starter would bump their prospects out of the top five but opportunities would surely come up throughout the year. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Even with a free agent addition, opportunities will undoubtedly arise for Pepiot, Miller and Stone.

The top remaining free agent starter is Carlos Rodón, who was predicted by MLBTR for a salary of $28MM but is reportedly looking for a seven-year deal and could theoretically take a lesser annual salary to max out his guarantee. The Dodgers usually prefer higher salaries and shorter terms but they could change their tune if they’re focused on their CBT hit in 2023. Even adding about $25MM for someone like Rodón would leave the club with room for other upgrades, so there isn’t really any starting pitcher they couldn’t fit into their plans in this scenario. Some of the other options available include Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and old friend Ross Stripling.

Adding an outfielder seems a possibility, as it was reported the club made a run at Kevin Kiermaier before he agreed to join the Blue Jays. If the club looks to other options, they likely won’t need to break the bank. The top options are already off the board with Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo each agreeing to rejoin their respective New York clubs. That leaves Andrew Benintendi as arguably the top guy left in this department. MLBTR predicted he would land a $54MM contract over four years, or $13.5MM per season.

The club could also pursue an infielder and bump Taylor into spending more time on the grass, perhaps with Lux staying at second. The top remaining option there is Carlos Correa, though it seems he’s not in the club’s plans. That leaves one other marquee option in Dansby Swanson, with a big drop down to less exciting options like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Brandon Drury or Justin Turner. Swanson was predicted for a $22MM salary over seven years for a $154MM total, while those other names will surely come in under that.

There are plenty of enticing options in any of those paths, but the club would have to be willing to cross the luxury tax again in order to do all of them. If they are indeed planning on staying under, they will like have to make tougher choices about which of these areas are worth their investments and which are worth leaving open for the young ones. Staying under the tax wouldn’t completely hamper the club, as they would almost certainly go into the next season pegged by many for a postseason spot. But FanGraphs currently considers them the fourth-best team in the National League, behind the Braves and the hyper-aggressive Mets and Padres. A modest offseason could still leave the Dodgers in decent shape, but it could perhaps knock them off their pedestal as perennial favorites.

Big Hype Prospects: Painter, Graceffo, Herrera, Thomas, Wesneski

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My Rule 5 coverage didn’t go to plan. While I successfully tabbed first overall pick Thad Ward, he was the only Rule 5 eligible player chosen of the 25 we evaluated. Ryan Noda was left off due to his age. All the others chosen were not on my radar.

With the Winter Meetings behind us, we’ll swing into full offseason mode here at Big Hype Prospects with a focus on young players affected by recent news.

Five BHPs In The News

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 103.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.56 ERA

The Phillies had what can only be described as a successful Winter Meetings, checking off all three boxes on their offseason wishlist. With Taijuan Walker joining the rotation, the club reportedly intends to leave the fifth slot as a battle between Bailey Falter and their stable of prospects. Though he’s younger than Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and other candidates, Painter is under consideration for an early-season rotation role. He turns 20 shortly after Opening Day. While Falter is the odds-on favorite for the fifth slot, that assumes no preseason injuries to their planned rotation.

Painter carried an unusually large workload for a teenager including two late-season outings of 26 or more batters faced. He made short work of three minor league levels. He gives every appearance of Major League readiness, though a stint in Triple-A might prove beneficial.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+/AA) 139.1 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.97 ERA

The Cardinals pursuit of a catcher ended with the signing of Willson Contreras. In negotiations with the Athletics for Sean Murphy, Oakland apparently requested Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Graceffo. The right-hander has an effective four-pitch repertoire coupled with above-average command. While the details differ, this is basically the same starter kit as Zac Gallen – a deep array or weapons with the means to use them all effectively. Graceffo ran into some speed bumps in Double-A, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 5.07 FIP in 18 starts. He’s on pace to debut in late-2023 or at some point in 2024.

Ivan Herrera, 22, C, STL (AAA)
278 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .268/.374/.394

Long considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera isn’t quite far enough along in his development for the Cardinals to hand him the keys. He looked overmatched in a tiny 22 plate appearance Major League sample. While the acquisition of Contreras could render him expendable, the Cardinals have resisted trading touted prospects in recent seasons. It’s entirely plausible St. Louis will treat Contreras as an expensive stopgap to be traded if ever Herrera surpasses him. Herrera draws mixed reviews for his defense with most reports considering him below-average but passable. His athleticism suggests he could be a late bloomer behind the dish. Plate discipline and contact skills are his carrying traits as a hitter. Though he’s no slouch in the power department, he doesn’t hold a candle to Contreras’ exit velocities.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
411 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .231/.275/.344

No longer technically a prospect by the prevailing definition, Thomas is nevertheless prospect-aged and sufficiently talented. His Major League debut didn’t go to plan, but he held his own thanks to positive defense and baserunning. Thomas’ batted ball profile is built for generating high-BABIPs and batting averages, but he slumped to a .263 BABIP in the big leagues. Part of his minor league success included plus plate discipline. He was below average in this regard in his debut, a sign he didn’t adjust well to sharp scouting reports.

Arizona’s outfielders will be in-demand all winter long, especially once the remaining quality free agents like Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto sign.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon last week and were reportedly among the finalists for Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets. Their focus on upgrading the rotation could leave Wesneski without an Opening Day role in the Majors. Acquired in the Scott Effross trade, Wesneski finished 2022 with a lovely 33-inning stint with Chicago. He pitched to a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP. Wesneski wields a five-pitch repertoire of three fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. They bleed together in a way that stymies hitters despite a lack of overpowering stuff. One scout I spoke with believes the Cubs are better suited than the Yankees to get the most from his particular approach. Whether or not Wesneski opens in the rotation, he is an important part of the club’s 2023 plans.

Five More

Ryan Noda, OAK (26): The second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, Noda is highly likely to slot into the Athletics lineup and never look back. He’s been among the top minor league performers for his entire career. Notably, he has always been old for his levels. He uses discipline as a weapon and has made steady gains in other facets of his game over the years. He even steals bases, though nobody will confuse him for a speedster. Think of him as vaguely similar to a more athletic Dan Vogelbach.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Though not nearly of the same pedigree as their other in-house options, Fletcher looks the part of a second-division starter or adequate fourth outfielder. He’s slowed to the point that center field is no longer a fit, and his modest power isn’t ideal for a corner outfield role. His batted profile yields high BABIPs, and his discipline improved last season. He could be a draw in trade discussions, and Arizona shouldn’t mind shopping him given their depth.

Keyshawn Askew, TBR (22): True to his name, Askew brings the funk from the left side. Acquired in the Brooks Raley deal, Askew profiles as a likely future reliever who seems destined to flummox hitters for years to come. He throws a sinker and slider out of a quirky sidearm armslot. The Rays love to collect unusual pitchers. There’s yet a chance they keep him stretched out as a starter.

Michael Busch, LAD (25): An accomplished minor league hitter, Busch has slow-burned through the Dodgers system. He’s considered a poor defensive second baseman but might get a chance there nonetheless due to the club’s intention to stay out of Carlos Correa’s market. He hit .266/.343/.480 (102 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 504 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

Jacob Amaya, LAD (24): Amaya is a more defensively able option at second base if Gavin Lux is indeed shifted to shortstop on a full-time basis. After torching Double-A pitching, Amaya was merely decent at Triple-A. He’s shown consistently above-average discipline but there’s often a notable lack of impact when he connects. For a team with Dodgers standards, he looks more like a utility man than a starter. Lesser clubs might happily count him as a regular.

Three Possible Landing Spots For Christian Vázquez

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Fresh off his second World Series title, long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez is a free agent for the first time in his career. With Willson Contreras inking a five-year, $87.MM deal with the Cardinals, Vazquez is arguably the top free agent catcher left on the board, rivaled by Sean Murphy in the trade market. This position has left Vazquez with a lengthy list of suitors, including the Twins, Padres, D-Backs, Guardians, Diamondbacks, and Giants.

Vazquez, a career .261/.310/.386 hitter, had a two-sided 2022 season. In Boston, the righty hit .282/.327/.432 with eight homers and 20 doubles. However, after being traded to Houston, Vazquez struggled, hitting a weaker .250/.278/.308 while splitting time with Martin Maldonado. Nevertheless, from 2019-2022, the backstop hit a solid .271/.318/416 (95 wRC+). Additionally, Vazquez has been solid behind the plate, having thrown out 34% of runners since his debut in 2014, ranking in the 71st percentile pop time to second base during the 2022 season, and has drawn plus framing marks from publicly available metrics via Statcast, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. With this solid season and a strong overall career, MLBTR predicts that Vazquez will earn a contract in the three years, $27MM range.

As for Vazquez’s free agent preferences, the 32-year-old has told reporters that a starting role and contending are at the forefront when determining his next home. With those two factors in mind, along with his strong history, here are some potential landing spots for the veteran.

Beginning with one of the more active teams during this year’s free agent period: the Padres. San Diego primarily relied on a tandem of Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro in 2022, with Friars’ backstops hitting a combined .249/.303/.350 with a middle-of-the-pack wRC+ (88). With the Padres opting to non-tender Alfaro, the club is currently projected to start the 2023 season with Nola and Luis Campusano behind the dish. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.

More importantly, the Padres have not been afraid to open their wallet, most recently signing former Red Sox teammate Xander Bogaerts to a colossal 11-year, $280MM deal. San Diego also offered Aaron Judge $400MM and Trea Turner $342MM, before the two players signed with other clubs. A win-now team searching for a catching upgrade, the Padres appear a logical candidate to pique Vazquez’s interest while simultaneously outbidding competitors.

Cleveland is another potential landing spot for the veteran, with Austin Hedges reaching free agency and leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians posted the second-lowest combined wRC+ for catchers last season (55), utilizing a soft-hitting duo of Austin Hedges and Luke Maile, although Hedges is regarded highly for his defensive work. Vazquez’s addition would improve offensive output while maintaining a high defensive level for the club.

The Guardians have already made one significant free agent addition this offseason, signing Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal with an opt-out after the first season. The team also made an offer for first baseman Jose Abreu, but couldn’t reach the $60MM threshold that the Astros closed in on. A team known for their low budget, the Guardians are also heavily involved in the Murphy trade market but will likely remain a player for Vazquez’s services if his price is not out of their comfort zone.

A third potential (wildcard) team for the backstop is a former AL East rival, the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay primarily relied on Francisco Mejia, who was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season, during the 2022 season. However, after a solid 2021 season (.260/.322/.417), Mejia struggled in 2022, hitting a meager .242/.264/.381. Poor performance and injuries led Tampa Bay to acquire Christian Bethancourt from Oakland in early July. Bethancourt would perform marginally better, hitting .255/.265/.436 in 151 plate appearances with the Rays.

As a team, Rays’ catchers hit a combined .224/.248/.373 with a below-average wRC+ (78). Vazquez represents an offensive upgrade to these two players, albeit with a higher price point than both Bethancourt and Mejia, who are both on their rookie deals. Nevertheless, Mejia still has one MiLB option remaining, and Vazquez and Bethancourt have experience, although limited, in the field with Bethancourt playing 249 innings at first base during the 2022 season. Admittedly, this landing spot is the least likely of the three.

While the Padres and Guardians present more logical landing spots for Vazquez, competitive teams, like the Rays, may look to shuffle their roster to add a proven veteran backstop talent. Minnesota recently offered Vazquez a contract, and there are sure to be many teams involved in free agent discussions with the catcher as the offseason continues.

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Volpe, Mervis, Bae, Macko

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With the Rule 5 Draft looming, we’ll touch on a few more names who could find themselves with a new organization in the next few days. We’ll also start our pivot to offseason mode, highlighting prospects who are in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA

If not for a lat strain, Rodriguez would have graduated from prospect lists. The Orioles are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, but Rodriguez reportedly has an inside path to an Opening Day role, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The consensus top pitching prospect in the league wields upwards of five above-average offerings with a superstar-caliber changeup as his headliner. Rodriguez’s rookie campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Orioles can build upon their surprising 2022 success.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 511 PA, 21 HR, 50 SB, .249/.342/.460

The Yankees aren’t expected to be active participants in the shortstop market this winter largely because Volpe and Oswald Peraza await in the wings. Peraza already has a successful 57 plate appearance stint in the Majors, albeit with worrisome exit velocities. Getting back to Volpe, he only has 99 plate appearances of experience in Triple-A and might merit further seasoning. He hit just .236/.313/.404 in the minor’s highest level, good for only a 91 wRC+. His swing is geared for extreme fly ball rates. As a result, his batting average might play below his raw tools. If he continues hitting over 50 percent fly balls, he profiles as a future 40-homer threat as he ages into more strength. Initially, he might frustrate with too many softly hit flies and pop-outs. There’s also potential for him to tighten up his launch angle to sacrifice a few home runs for better outcomes on average. Volpe has multiple pathways to superstardom.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 512 PA, 36 HR, 2 SB, .309/.379/.606

A frequent guest of this column in recent months, Mervis charged through three levels while greatly improving his contact rate and plate discipline at each stop. For icing on the cake, he turned in a quality performance in the AFL. He’s very much in consideration for an Opening Day role as the Cubs first baseman or designated hitter. Chicago is reportedly on the hunt for a first baseman, but that won’t necessarily affect Mervis since designated hitter is also vacant. He profiles as a way-too-early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Ji Hwan Bae, 23, 2B/OF, PIT (MLB)
(AAA) 473 PA, 8 HR, 30 SB, .289/.362/.430

Bae turned in 37 solid plate appearances in the Majors. Like Peraza above, Bae posted an above-average batting line despite worrisome quality of contact. He mostly played second base and shortstop in the minors with some time in center field too. Outfield might be his best path forward on the Major League roster. There’s a whiff of Tommy Edman to Bae. He has defensive utility, a speed-first profile, and makes low-angle contact leading to high BABIPs and rare home runs. The Pirates are said to be considering middle infield additions which could affect Bae’s Opening Day assignment.

Adam Macko, 21, SP, TOR (A+)
38.1 IP, 14.09 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.99 ERA

The Blue Jays acquired Macko as half of the return for Teoscar Hernandez. A mystery injury prevented Macko from working much this season, though he did appear in the AFL. The upcoming season is his Rule 5 evaluation year which might push him toward a bullpen role. He has the stuff to start – a three-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings. The southpaw is inconsistent, often losing command of his secondary offerings. Predictably, his fastball plays down when this happens. When he’s on, he mows through low-minors hitters as evidenced by 14.09 K/9 and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Five More Rule 5ers

Kameron Misner, TBR (24): Originally acquired in exchange for Joey Wendle, Misner has plus discipline, power, and speed. He’s a capable defensive centerfielder. Misner has yet to taste Triple-A despite never posting a below-average batting line. His biggest weakness is a lofty strikeout rate, but the rest of his profile seemingly supports this drawback. Among hitters, Misner would top my personal Rule 5 wishlist as a fifth outfielder and potential righty-masher.

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Although he lacks Misner’s physicality and upside, Simon might be even more likely to be selected. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League following solid High- and Double-A campaigns. At the plate, Simon hides swing-and-miss issues with aggression. He’s developed sneaky pop and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Simon is a utility man who fits best at second or third base.

Andres Chaparro, NYY (23): The Yankees infield depth likely led them to leave Chaparro unprotected. He’s coming off an impressive performance at Double-A including a .289/.369/.594 line with 19 home runs in 271 plate appearances. The main knock against him is a lack of durability. He’s a corner infielder by trade.

Adrian Hernandez, TOR (22): A diminutive right-hander (by baseball standards), Hernandez is a changeup specialist who succeeds by keeping opponents off balance. Between his stature and pitching approach, it’s an unusual profile. ‘Unusual’ tends to do well in the current meta. Hernandez pitched well early in 2022. He struggled upon returning from a shoulder injury.

Cam Devanney, MIL (25): Although he’s never really appeared on prospect lists, Devanney made a swing adjustment last season. He now looks like a sure-fire Major Leaguer. He flashed power and adequate discipline at Double-A and performed well in a brief trial at Triple-A. His most attractive trait is utility – he’s proven himself a capable defender at shortstop, second, and third base.

Looking For A Match For Joey Gallo

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After one and a half poor seasons with the Yankees (.159/.291/.368 in 421 at-bats) and the Dodgers (.162/.277/.393 in 117 at-bats), former All-Star Joey Gallo enters free agency looking to reset his career and rediscover his bat. It was only a few years ago that Gallo was one of the most feared hitters in the entire league, mashing .253/.389/.589 with 22 homers in 2019 and hitting a strong .223/.379/.490 with 25 homers in 2021 before being traded to the Yankees. However, instead of earning a lucrative long-term contract this offseason, Gallo will likely be forced to sign a one- or two-year deal as he looks to re-establish himself as a premier outfielder.

Following a weak 2022 season (.160/.280/.357 in 350 at-bats), Gallo will probably be passed over by the more-competitive clubs. However, there are several less-competitive teams that may take a flier on the former All-Star in the hopes that he rekindles his offensive production.

With no guaranteed contracts and amidst a rebuild, the Athletics may view Gallo as a potential mid-season trade chip that will net them some prospects. As mentioned in MLBTR’s Athletics’ Offseason Outlook, at the surface, Oakland only has catcher Sean Murphy and centerfielder Roman Laureano penciled in as starters, with the former being the subject of constant trade rumors this offseason. Cristian Pache also figures to see some time in the outfield, as he is out of minor league options in 2023, and Seth Brown can play first base or a corner outfield position.

But, as best put by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, “Oakland is going to need someone to fill out the lineup.” Laureano (.211/.287/.376) and Pache (.166/.218/.241) were regulars in 2022, but neither provided above-average production. Gallo represents a free agent signing that, if he regains his form in a less stressful environment, may net the As a solid return in a likely non-competitive season.

The Reds are another rebuilding team that may take a flier on the former All-Star. Cincinnati had a revolving-door outfield in 2022, with seven different outfielders coming to the plate at least 200 times. Two of those players, Tommy Pham and Tyler Naquin, were traded away and another two, Aristides Aquino and Albert Almora, have already been designated for assignment (DFA).

That leaves three outfielders who had at least 200 at-bats during the 2022 season on the Reds’ 40-Man roster at this point in the offseason. Nick Senzel (.231/.296/.306) had a below-average season and was a potential DFA candidate ahead of the 40-Man roster deadline. Senzel has had a challenging time remaining on the field, being limited to only 110 games in 2022 and 35 games in 2022. The other two outfielders, TJ Friedl (.240/.314/.436) and Jake Fraley (.259/.344/.468) have limited MLB experience, with Friedl having under one year of service time and Fraley having just over two years.

Perhaps with these circumstances in mind, the Reds recently acquired Nick Solak from the Rangers. Solak, who can play left field and second base, had a strong 2019 season, .293/.393/.491 in 33 games (135 at-bats), but has struggled since then. Most recently during the 2022 season, the soon-to-be 28-year-old hit a measly .207/.309/.329 and was optioned on and off the major league club, only getting into 35 games with the Rangers.

With a lack of health and experience, Cincinnati may look to Gallo as a veteran option. However, both Friedl and Fraley are left-handed hitters and with Gallo also a lefty bat, the Reds may be cautious in trotting out a trio of lefty outfielders.

Turning to the NL East, the Marlins are another team that suffered from a poor outfield during the 2022 season, slashing a collective .216/.284/.365. Miami has already been rumored to be active in the trade market for centerfield help this offseason but may also test the free-agent market. Nevertheless, with Jorge Soler ($24MM through 2023) and Avisail Garcia ($41MM through 2025) manning the corner outfield positions, general manager Kim Ng will likely opt to forgo adding another boom-or-bust outfielder in Gallo.

Staying in the NL East, after finishing the 2022 season at the bottom of the division, trading their All-World talent in Juan Soto, and undergoing a sale, the Nationals are firmly in a rebuild. However, unlike Oakland, Washington is in a state of limbo without direction from ownership. Trades involving Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Josh Bell have netted the organization a plethora of young talent in Robert Hassell, Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, and James Wood, among others, but the organization has stated an intention to upgrade the corner outfield spots.

Victor Robles was Washington’s primary centerfielder in 2022 but slashed a weak .224/.273/.311. Corner outfielder Lane Thomas (.241/.301/.404) had a solid second season with the Nats and will likely continue to have an everyday role with the team. That leaves one open corner outfield spot that can potentially be filled by Gallo. By signing Gallo to a short-term deal, Washington can bridge the gap until top prospects Hassell and Wood reach the majors. Additionally, from a midseason potential trade chip standpoint, the Nats can flip Gallo if the veteran regains his offensive spark, with Hassell (who earned a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg near the end of the 2022 season) projected to join the major league team sometime during the 2023 season.

Lastly, the team that had the worst wRC+ (83) and Gallo’s starting point, the Texas Rangers. Despite signing Corey Seager ($287.5MM through 2031) Marcus Semien ($150MM through 2028), and Jon Gray ($41MM through 2025) to long-term contracts in the 2021-2022 offseason, the Rangers failed to make the playoffs for the sixth straight season, finishing with a 68-94 record. Part of the blame can be attributed to a weak outfield that collectively slashed .226/.287/.353 in 2022.

As discussed in MLBTR’s Rangers’ Offseason Outlook, aside from Adolis Garcia (.250/.300/.456), the Rangers’ outfield utilized Leody Taveras (.261/.309/.366) and Bubba Thompson (.265/.302/.312), along with contributions from Eli White, Josh Smith, and Nick Solak, who has since been traded. Despite Gallo’s weak showing as of late, over parts of seven seasons with the Rangers he has a .211/.336/.497 line with 145 homers. Nevertheless, as touched upon in the Rangers’ Offseason Outlook, general manager Chris Young has already publicly stated that owner Ray Davis has given the green light to increase payroll, albeit with a focus on improving the pitching staff. For a team with considerable financial resources and a hunger to return to postseason competition, the Rangers will likely heavily pursue more prominent free agents, leaving Gallo as an afterthought.

Pivoting to a more general discussion, Gallo will almost surely find himself a spot on a major league roster for the 2023 season. The slugger, who pulls the ball 54.8% of the time, will likely benefit from the removal of the shift, leading to more interest from teams across the league. Nevertheless, Gallo’s recent history of offensive ruin may sour potential suitors and leave him in search of a “prove-it” deal as he looks to rescue his career.

Trade Candidate: Bryan Reynolds

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Over the past few years Bryan Reynolds’ name has come up frequently in trade talks, but as of yet no move has materialized. There’s no indication such a move will come to fruition anytime soon either, but the Pirates’ star is sure to be a regular name on the rumor mill again this winter. Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported earlier this month that Reynolds was a popular name among GMs, but that a trade was considered unlikely.

There’s a reason Reynolds has been the target of a number of teams, he’s an elite switch-hitting outfielder, who’s shown strong power, on-base and contact skills and is under team control for three more seasons with a team in the midst of a lengthy rebuild. On the flip side, the Pirates, it seems, believe that rebuild will be complete within the next three years, so they don’t feel any need to move him. That’s not to say they wouldn’t trade him if the right offer came along, but it does mean they can set a high asking price and wait and see if any team is willing to meet it.

The Pirates are coming off a second-straight 100-loss season, but they are seeing a number of their top prospects make their way to the upper minors and big leagues. Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes are young building blocks, while the likes of Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester and Michael Burrows aren’t too far away. There’s no guarantee that core can form a competitive team with Reynolds in the next few years, and Pittsburgh’s spending history suggests there’s little chance of them keeping Reynolds once he reaches free agency. As such, there’s solid arguments to be made for and against the Pirates trading their star this winter.

Reynolds, 28 in January, has amassed 12.5 fWAR since bursting onto the scene in 2019. Acquired from the Giants in the Andrew McCutchen trade, Reynolds was called up a few weeks into the 2019 campaign and never looked back. That year, he hit .314/.377/.503 with 16 home runs in 134 games, good for fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Pete Alonso, Mike Soroka and Fernando Tatis Jr.

He struggled mightily in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, posting a sub-.200 batting average and a wRC+ of just 71. That season proved to be an aberration, as Reynolds returned to his best in 2021, slashing .302/.390/.522 with 24 home runs in 159 games, earning his first trip to the All Star game and finishing 11th in NL MVP voting. The key that season was a significant drop in strikeouts, as Reynolds easily posted a career best mark of 18.4%, down nine percent from a year earlier.

2022 saw an uptick in strikeouts as Reynolds punched out 23% of the time. He wound up with a .262/.345/.461 line with 27 home runs and a 125 wRC+, so it was still a very productive season but down from his best years. It’s possible Reynolds sacrificed a bit of contact for an increase in power (he hit three more home runs in 32 fewer plate appearances), but it’s also worth noting that his BABIP dropped 39 points from ’22 to ’21, and his batting average dropped an almost identical 40 points.

Defensively, Reynolds has received mixed reviews for his work in center field (10 Outs Above Average in ’21 against -7 in ’22) which is where he’s spent most of his career in Pittsburgh, but has tended to grade out much better in left field.

Reynolds is owed $6.5MM in the second year of a two-year deal signed last winter. He’ll then have two further years of arbitration remaining, before reaching free agency at the conclusion of the 2025 season.

So who could be interested? Let’s take a look at a handful of teams that could pursue Pittsburgh’s outfielder this winter, and how their farm system is looking.

  • Red Sox: Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox’ have expressed interest in Reynolds as they seek a left-handed hitting outfielder. The Red Sox currently have Alex Verdugo, Kike Hernandez and Rob Refsnyder in the outfield, with Jarren Duran as their fourth option. Baseball America ranked Boston’s farm system as the 11th best in baseball, with Marcelo Mayer, Triston Casas, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela featuring in the top 100 overall. Both Bello and Casas have MLB experience now, but Pittsburgh would surely want any trade to start with one of those four names.
  • Yankees: The Yankees have been linked with Reynolds at various points over the past few years, and their outfield is expected to be an area of focus again this winter. Even if they re-sign Aaron Judge they may well seek a left field upgrade, but if they lose Judge the Yankees will be under pressure to make a big splash. Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza and Jasson Dominguez are the big names on the Yankees’ farm, while the Pirates may have interest in Austin Wells as a long-term first base option.
  • Marlins: The Marlins have long had interest in Reynolds, and they’re again likely to be looking for outfield additions this winter. They currently have Jon Berti, Avisail Garcia and Bryan De La Cruz in their outfield. BA ranks them 20th best in the game, with Eury Perez, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, headlining it. Max Meyer is recovering from Tommy John surgery while Jacob Berry is the other top 100 prospect. BA notes that the system lacks depth behind the top guys so a deal may be hard to come by, but if Miami was willing to dangle Perez it’d certainly catch Pittsburgh’s attention.
  • Mariners: Seattle is another team that’s had previous interest in Reynolds. Julio Rodriguez is locked in at center and the team just acquired Teoscar Hernandez to play right, but the team could look to move on from Jarred Kelenic in left. Their farm system has already taken a big hit following a series of win-now trades by president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, but the likes of Emerson Hancock and Harry Ford are exciting prospects, and Pittsburgh would possibly be interested in trying to unlock Kelenic’s potential.

Of course, these are just four possible options and any number of teams could be interested in a player of Reynolds’ quality. Pittsburgh will certainly have a steep asking price, but perhaps a team will blow them away with an offer this winter.

Big Hype Prospects: Miller, Nunez, Thomas, Ramos, Duran

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Building on last week’s column, we’ll continue evaluating possible Rule 5 draft targets. By nature, these are not truly “big hype prospects.” After all, Rule 5 picks rarely go on to have notable Major League careers. We’ll have a few leftovers to discuss next week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Erik Miller, 24, RP, PHI (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 48.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 3.54 ERA

At times, Miller looked like he might one day be a Top 100 prospect. At his best, he shows a four-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings from the left side. Unfortunately, errant command causes his stuff to play down. In a brief 12-inning trial at Triple-A, he allowed 14 walks, one hit batter, and four home runs. Between suspect strike-throwing ability and his late-season flop, the Phillies must have determined he couldn’t help them contend in the near future. Their 40-man roster is already crowded. Other clubs without the burden of a 2023 playoff push might be more willing to hand Miller a role, especially since he’s a southpaw. His career has been interrupted by several injuries. A healthy stretch could help him to resolve his command woes.

Malcom Nunez, 21, 1B, PIT (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 493 PA, 23 HR, 5 SB, .262/.367/.466

Designated hitters tend to escape Rule 5 scrutiny. Perhaps we’ll see new trends with the universal DH in place. Nunez has almost no defensive value even though he’s mostly played first and third base. The Pirates acquired the slugger as part of the Jose Quintana deal. Nunez mashed at Double-A last season and had a successful five-game stint in Triple-A. He showed improved strike zone judgment and is prone to hard, low-angle, pulled contact which cuts into his home run potential. He might be a more substantive Rule 5 target this time next year.

Tahnaj Thomas, 23, RP, PIT (AA)
50.2 IP, 9.24 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 3.02 ERA

Thomas is a former top prospect whose development has plateaued in recent years. He looks like a big league pitcher and even used to brush triple-digit velocity on the regular. Lately, his fastball has sat in the mid-90s. It’s his best offering. A lack of secondary stuff continues to constrain his progression. Given his modest success at Double-A despite middling stuff, I expect some club will take a leap to see if they can teach him a breaking ball during Spring Training. There’s also a chance the right pitching lab work could help him to recover his heater.

Jose Ramos, 21, OF, LAD (A+)
407 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .240/.322/.467

It’s possible 26-man rosters could help a few rebuilding clubs stomach rostering a player like Ramos. He’s a tooled-up slugger who’s prone to flailing at bendy stuff in the dirt. A year ago, he was on a Top 100 prospect trajectory. If he continues to produce in the upper minors, he could still rebound to that level. A jump straight to the Majors is almost certainly doomed to fail in terms of statistical results. Any acquiring team has to be comfortable getting close to no production from the corner outfielder in 2023. Drafting Ramos is a long-term gambit.

It’s worth noting that the Dodgers dev staff is considered one of the best in the league. If they’ve failed to help Ramos lay off breaking balls, there aren’t many clubs that can confidently expect to do better.

Carlos Duran, 21, SP, LAD (A+)
48.2 IP, 12.58 K/9, 4.44 BB/9, 4.25 ERA

This is a classic Rule 5 draft profile – a good young starter coming off a solid, age-appropriate performance. His stuff could instantly pop in the bullpen. The Dodgers never got around to evaluating him as a reliever – at least not during game action. Duran features a spicy upper-90s fastball with bowling ball sink. His slider is also considered a double-plus offering. He throws a changeup and curve, both of which are developing offerings that would likely be dropped if he’s picked up as a Rule 5 reliever. Given his imposing presence on the mound, he evokes another Duran (Jhoan Duran) though he lacks that top-end ceiling. Still, Duran is one of the better bets for teams hoping for the instant gratification of finding a high-leverage reliever.

Five More

Korry Howell, SDP (24): A toolsy utility man who shows best in the outfield, Howell combines plate discipline and speed with questions about his bat-to-ball ability. Though he only has mixed success in Double-A, his speed and defensive versatility might prove attractive to another club.

Corey Julks, HOU (26): Julks is one of the most statistically accomplished players available in the draft. Last season, he hit .270/.351/.503 in Triple-A with 31 home runs and 22 steals. He’s also one of the oldest plausible picks without Major League experience. While he could patch center field in a pinch, he’s a better fit defensively in the outfield corners. The only glaring flaw in his game is a lack of standout tools. Even so, this blend of contact, discipline, pop, speed, and acceptable defense is sufficient to merit an immediate big league look.

Ryan Ward, LAD (24): Over the last two seasons, Ward has popped a combined 55 home runs in 1,001 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. A left-handed corner outfielder, he’s trending as a righty-mashing platoon bat. While he’d ideally get some time in Triple-A, a non-contending club might tolerate having him on the regular roster as a part-timer.

Dominic Canzone, ARI (24): Like Ward, Canzone passes a smell test as a possible platoon outfielder. He eviscerated Double-A pitching before posting a merely solid .284/.349/.489 line in 364 plate appearances. Remember, the Reno Aces play in a hitters’ haven. While he doesn’t have an obvious path to the Majors with the outfield-rich Diamondbacks, plenty of clubs should be interested in giving him a spring tryout.

Edgar Barclay, NYY (24): Barclay dominated High-A as a strike-throwing bulk reliever. The southpaw has a plus changeup but lacks an impact fastball or breaking ball. Since he’s short and left-handed, he could be used as a situational reliever and mop-up man. His lack of upper-minors experience could be a deterrent.

Who Will Be The Yankees’ Shortstop In 2023?

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The Yankees shortstop position has been in a state of flux for over a year now. In September of 2021, manager Aaron Boone announced that Gleyber Torres would be moved over to second base. With that new vacancy, many expected the Yankees to acquire one of the five shortstops at the top of last year’s free agent class: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.

However, as the offseason got underway, reports emerged that the club wasn’t planning to focus its resources on the shortstop position. They had enough confidence in their young prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza they didn’t feel the need to hand out a lengthy contract to fill the position. Instead, they traded for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a glove-first player who had two years of relatively cheap control remaining.

Things went roughly according to plan in 2022, as Kiner-Falefa continued to hit at a below-average level but produced generally solid work with the glove. His .261/.314/.327 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 85, with all those numbers fairly close to his career marks. He made some defensive miscues in the postseason, but Defensive Runs Saved gave him a +10 in the regular season, tied for sixth among MLB shortstops for the year. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average were less enthused but still had him around league average. He’ll turn 28 in March.

One year later, it seems the long-term plan has not changed. There’s another crop of excellent shortstops this year, with Correa returning to the open market alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. But recent reporting still points to the Yankees having enough faith in their internal options to dedicate their offseason efforts elsewhere. The question that needs to be resolved now is exactly how strong that faith is. Is it time to hand the keys over to the kids or not?

One year ago, Peraza had just eight games of Triple-A experience under his belt. He was sent back to that level to start the 2022 season and eventually got into 99 games. In that time, he hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases. His batting line was .259/.329/.448 for a wRC+ of 106. He was promoted to the majors late in the season and got into 18 games there. He only went deep once but hit at a .306/.404/.429 level in that small sample for a wRC+ of 146. His batting average on balls in play was .302 in the minors but jumped to .359 in the majors, meaning those improved results seem unsustainable, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. He’ll turn 23 in June.

Volpe finished 2021 at High-A and started 2022 in Double-A. In 110 games there, he went deep 18 times and swiped 44 bags, producing a .251/.348/.472 batting line for a wRC+ of 122. He scuffled after a promotion to Triple-A, hitting just .236/.313/.404 for a wRC+ of 91, but in a small sample of just 22 games. He’ll turn 22 in April.

A surprise entrant into the mix is Oswaldo Cabrera. As a prospect, he wasn’t considered to be at the same level as Peraza and Volpe but he’s shot forward in recent years. In 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 29 home runs and stole 21 bases. His combined batting line was .272/.330/.533 for a wRC+ of 130. He was hitting well in Triple-A again in 2022 and got promoted to the big leagues. In 44 major league games, he hit .247/.312/.429 for a wRC+ of 111 while spending time at all four infield positions and the outfield corners. He’ll turn 24 in March.

With those youngsters being at or near the majors, it’s possible the Yankees don’t feel they need Kiner-Falefa anymore. They did just avoid arbitration with him by giving him a $6MM contract, but they could work out a trade if they feel secure enough in the other options. However, they could also keep IKF around just in case there’s any growing pains with the younger players, eventually sliding him into a utility role over time. Aside from Torres, the other infielders currently on the roster are on the older side, as Josh Donaldson is turning 37 next month while Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu will turn 34 and 35, respectively, during the next season. Regardless of who gets the starting shortstop job, the club will likely want to keep some depth on hand in case any of these players deal with injuries or underperformance, as they all did in 2022.

It’s likely that the job will be awarded based on meritocracy. Whoever plays the best in the spring and then into the regular season will continue to get the playing time. The others can be moved to utility/bench roles, spend more time in the minors or end up traded to another club. It does seem like the plan is likely to work out, as they just need one of these options to take the reins. By not dedicating a nine-figure contract to a shortstop, they will be able to use their financial resources to attempt to retain Aaron Judge and/or pursue other marquee free agents as they look to repeat at AL East champions in 2023.

But who do you think will charge forward as the everyday shortstop in 2023? Cabrera has the most MLB experience at this point but he comes with less prospect pedigree and seems easily capable of moving to other positions. Peraza seems to have little left to prove in the minors but he’s only played 18 MLB games. Volpe only just reached Triple-A but could burst onto the scene next year. Kiner-Falefa is still around if no one else takes the job. So, who will play the most games at shortstop for the Yankees in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

Who Will Play The Most Games At Shortstop For The Yankees In 2023?
Oswald Peraza 42.14% (4,050 votes)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 20.77% (1,996 votes)
Anthony Volpe 14.22% (1,367 votes)
don't know/someone else 13.84% (1,330 votes)
Oswaldo Cabrera 9.02% (867 votes)
Total Votes: 9,610

(poll link for app users)

Do The Royals Have A Problem Behind The Plate?

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Since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals have been on a downward trajectory. The went 81-81 in 2016 and have been below .500 in the five seasons after that. After rebuilding the farm for a few years, the club has been trying to return to contention over the past couple of seasons by giving out some aggressive contracts, at least by their modest standards. It hasn’t worked out, with the past two seasons resulting in a fourth and fifth place finish in the weak AL Central.

A significant factor in the club’s results has been that many of their top pitching prospects have struggled in the majors. Brady Singer seems to be front of the pack now, despite posting a 4.91 ERA in 2021 and getting demoted to the bullpen to start 2022. He wound up back in the rotation and finished the season with a 3.23 ERA. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall pick in 2019 but he has a 5.32 ERA in 199 2/3 innings thus far in the big leagues. Kris Bubic was taken 40th overall in 2018 but has a 4.89 ERA in over 300 MLB innings thus far. Jackson Kowar was selected 33rd overall in 2018 but has only been given 46 innings of action so far, in which he has a 10.76 ERA. Those are just a few examples of many.

For a team that doesn’t usually spend on marquee free agents, developing their own prospects into useful major leaguers is essential to their success and this is something they will need to get to the bottom of. Finding an explanation for all this likely won’t lead to a simple answer. It’s possible it has something to do with the scouting that led to those players being drafted in the first place, although public prospect evaluators have liked each of those players quite a bit. Perhaps it’s related to coaching or development in the minors. But it’s also possible the club’s major league catching is playing a role.

Salvador Perez has been the club’s catcher for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and firmly securing the job in 2013. He was the primary backstop as the club went to the World Series in consecutive years, winning the second trip in 2015. As much of that championship core moved on, he remained as the face of the franchise and unofficial captain. While he’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past three seasons, his defense is another matter.

Defensive Runs Saved has placed Perez at -5 in 2021 and -4 in 2022. Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment gave him a -14.8 last year, which was last in the majors, and -14.1 this year, which was third-last. Though Perez has had success throwing out baserunners in his career, his pop time was ranked by Statcast as 50th out of 83 catchers this year.

In terms of framing, the problem appears to be more chronic. FanGraphs has only given him a positive grade in that department once, which was the shortened 2020 season. He posted a -19.6 and -12.6 over the past two campaigns, bringing his career tally to -106.5. That’s last in the majors among all catchers from 2011 to the present. Baseball Prospectus is fairly similar, as Perez has been tagged with a negative number in each season except for 2013 and 2020, with a -14.3 and -14.2 in the past two years. Statcast framing data only goes back to 2015, but it also isn’t fond of his work. Apart from an even zero in 2020, he has all negative numbers there, including a -8 this year, fifth-worst in the league, and a -18 last year, which was dead last.

All of this isn’t to say that Perez is solely responsible for the club’s pitching woes. As mentioned, baseball teams have dozens of coaches and analysts who all play a role in the results. But these numbers surely aren’t ideal when trying to mold a batch of pitching prospects into effective major leaguers. It’s also possible that health is playing a role, since Perez underwent left thumb surgery in 2022. He was supposed to be out of action eight weeks but returned after just over a month and maybe wasn’t 100%. If better health in 2023 leads to better outcomes, that would be fantastic for KC. But if it doesn’t and the problem persists, finding a solution will have multiple challenges.

For one thing, there’s the fact that Perez, who turns 33 in May, is still under contract for at least three more seasons. As part of an extension he and the club agreed to in 2021, he’ll get $20MM in 2023 and 2024, $22MM in 2025, and then a $13.5MM club option for 2026 with a $2MM buyout. For a low-spending team like the Royals, he’s easily their highest-paid player.

Due to Perez having the catching position on lockdown, that’s led to MJ Melendez playing elsewhere. Melendez was a highly-touted catching prospect when coming up through the minor league ranks, but he also played some third base and the corner outfield spots in the minors in order to open up new paths of getting into the lineup. He made it to the big leagues this year, making 65 starts behind the plate and 37 in the outfield.

The results of this have been mixed, to put it politely. At the plate, Melendez finished the season with a 99 wRC+. That’s just a hair below league average overall but slightly above average for a catcher. Defensively, all of the advanced metrics gave him poor grades for his work on the grass, which isn’t terribly surprising since he’s effectively learning on the fly out there. But his numbers behind the plate are also quite poor. DRS gave him a -18 in 2022, the worst in the majors. FanGraphs framing gave him a -15.7, also dead last. CDA at BP gave him a -18.6, also dead last. Their BlkR, a measure of a catcher’s blocking ability, gave him a -1.1, again, dead last. Statcast’s framing metric had him at -12, second-worst in the league.

To be fair to Melendez, he has been given sporadic playing time in his first taste of the majors, while also trying to learn other positions. Becoming a successful major league catcher is already challenging enough without those extra factors thrown in. He’s also still quite young, turning 24 years old later this month. Ideally, he’d be given a full-time catching job and have some time to refine his game and see if he can hack it in the majors, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen in Kansas City as long as Perez is there.

There’s been nothing to indicate the club is considering supplanting Perez as the everyday catcher, but even if they did, that path would have its own challenges. The Royals have a cluttered first base/designated hitter mix at the moment, with Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier all candidates for at-bats in those slots. Some of those guys are candidates to move to the outfield corners, though that’s less than ideal defensively and also could squeeze out guys like Drew Waters, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel.

Taken all together, it’s hard to figure out how to put these ingredients together in a way that leads to something appetizing. With Perez behind the plate, Melendez is likely serving as a part-time catcher and outfielder who isn’t great at either spot. Giving the job to Melendez crowds out the 1B/DH picture and doesn’t even necessarily lead to better work behind the plate. It’s possible that either arrangement leaves roadblocks in front of the young pitchers in the system.

Clearly frustrated by the continued losing, the club has decided a shakeup is in order. They recently fired their long-time baseball ops leader Dayton Moore, with general manager J.J. Picollo now in charge of baseball operations. They also made a change in the manager’s seat, firing Mike Matheny and replacing him with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. They will be tasked with trying to turn a 65-win team into a contender. They’re looking up at a Cleveland team that just surged to the top and is built to stay strong for years to come. The White Sox and Twins had disappointing seasons in 2022 but will be looking to reload in 2022. There’s also a Tigers team that, though currently in a down cycle, is trying to overhaul its analytical systems and will surely spend aggressively once it does. The Royals have lots to deal with in the road ahead, but they might have to start by looking within.

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