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Examining The Tigers’ Options Behind The Plate

By | at March 15, 2023 12:09am CDT

The Tigers had a quiet offseason in Scott Harris’ first winter as president of baseball operations. The new front office head seems content to take a season to evaluate the organization before reevaluating where to invest to return to playoff competitiveness in 2024 and beyond.

Throughout the lineup, the club has players trying to carve out long-term roles. MLBTR looked through various outfield possibilities a couple months ago. The infield might be a little more settled, with the likes of Spencer Torkelson, Jonathan Schoop and Javier Báez seemingly in position for regular playing time. There’s a fair bit of uncertainty about how manager A.J. Hinch will divide reps behind the dish, as Detroit allowed last year’s primary backstop Tucker Barnhart to depart in free agency after a down season.

Turning to the players who remain in Detroit:

Jake Rogers, 27, one minor league option remaining

Rogers’ defense has caught the attention of evaluators for years. Prospect writers credited the Tulane product as a plus or better defender, praising his athleticism, receiving, arm strength and acumen for handling a pitching staff. Those strong defensive reviews have been paired with longstanding questions about how much he’ll contribute at the plate. That has manifested at the MLB level, as the righty-swinging Rogers has only a .182/.264/.378 line with ten home runs but a massive 38% strikeout rate in 73 big league games.

Those were split between 2019-21, as Rogers lost all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He’s healthy again now and has gotten into 11 Spring Training contests. He hasn’t yet topped more than 40 big league games in any season but his defensive reputation could earn him an extended look at some point.

Eric Haase, 30, zero options remaining

Haase was arguably Detroit’s best offensive player last year, at least on a rate basis. Among Tigers’ hitters with 200+ plate appearances, he was the only one who produced at an above-average level by measure of wRC+. Haase hit .254/.306/.443 through 351 trips to the dish. His strikeout and walk numbers weren’t great but he connected on 14 home runs. That came on the heels of a 22-homer showing over just 98 contests the prior year.

The former Cleveland draftee clearly brings above-average right-handed power upside. Even with fairly modest on-base numbers, he’s a strong offensive catcher. Haase has never really established himself on the other side of the ball though. Statcast has graded him as a well below-average pitch framer and placed him near the bottom of the league with regards to keeping balls in front of him. He’s shown solid arm strength but not particularly polished receiving.

Haase is athletic enough to take some time in left field. He’s logged 216 2/3 innings there over the past two seasons and could continue to factor into the outfield. He’s out of options and brings some much-needed power to the Detroit lineup, so he’ll be on the roster, though it doesn’t necessarily have to come at catcher given his defensive question marks.

Donny Sands, 26, two options remaining

Sands, a Yankee draftee, has been in the professional ranks for over seven years. An eighth-round pick out of high school in 2015, he’s very slowly climbed the minor league ladder. Sands didn’t advance past the low minors until 2021. A solid showing between the top two minor league levels that year caught the attention of the Phillies, who acquired him that offseason. The right-handed hitter spent almost all of last season with Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate, raking at a .308/.413/.428 clip with a massive 15.7% walk rate and solid 18.2% strikeout percentage over 242 plate appearances.

The Phils didn’t have an opportunity for Sands at the MLB level. J.T. Realmuto is entrenched as the starter, while Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán make for quality depth options. Sands only appeared in three big league contests — his first MLB action — as a September call-up. This winter, the Phils packaged him with Nick Maton and Matt Vierling in the Gregory Soto deal.

Sands hasn’t gotten a look at big league pitching. He’s 26 and has never been a high-profile prospect. Still, there’s nothing left for him to prove against minor league arms. The Tigers can keep him in the minors through 2024 but they might be best served seeing what they have sooner than later. Detroit has a pair of interesting catching prospects — Dillon Dingler and Josh Crouch — who have reached Double-A and could play their way onto the MLB radar by ’24. It’d behoove them to know where Sands fits in that hierarchy before those younger players are in consideration for roster spots.

Andrew Knapp, 31, not on 40-man roster

Knapp signed a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite over the offseason. He’s a known quantity for Harris, who was part of the Giants’ front office when the switch-hitter played for San Francisco last season. Knapp, who had played solely for the Phillies before a nomadic 2022 campaign, was also kept off the field by Realmuto at Citizens Bank Park. He’s never really produced when given intermittent big league opportunities, hitting .209/.310/.313 over 325 games. He’s the most experienced catcher in camp but not presently on the 40-man roster.

Mario Feliciano/Michael Papierski

Feliciano and Papierski each logged brief MLB action in 2022. The former appeared in two games for the Brewers, while the latter got into 39 contests between the Giants and Reds. Detroit snagged both off waivers this offseason but didn’t keep either player on the roster. The Tigers non-tendered Papierski before re-signing him to a minor league deal; Feliciano was run through waivers within two weeks of being claimed. Neither hit especially well in Triple-A last year. They’ll be in the organization as upper level insurance but seem behind the group of Rogers, Haase, Sands and perhaps Knapp on the depth chart.

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Offseason In Review: New York Mets

By | at March 14, 2023 4:54pm CDT

The Mets had a huge number of players departing via free agency, but owner Steve Cohen signed off on new heights of spending to replenish the roster. In some cases, familiar faces were brought back, but there are also some intriguing new additions. The payroll almost went even higher, as the Mets took center stage in the middle chapter of the Carlos Correa saga. Even though that mega deal ultimately fell through, the Mets still shot way past previous spending records and the highest luxury tax bracket in their aim of putting together another competitive team for 2023.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $144.5MM
Total spending: $498.17MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Mets had a very strong season in 2022, winning 101 games, their second-highest tally in franchise history. However, it ended with a few sour notes. Though the Mets were leading the National League East for most of the year, a scorching-hot Atlanta club blasted past them in the final days of the season to capture the division title and secure a bye through the Wild Card round. That left the Mets to face off against the Padres in a three-game series that they eventually lost.

In the aftermath of that tough finish, the Mets were looking at a challenging offseason scenario, with a great number of impending departures. Brandon Nimmo was the most notable position player heading into free agency, but he was potentially going to be joined by a huge chunk of the pitching staff. Jacob deGrom opted out of his contract, while Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker each declined options. The club decided to trigger their option over Carlos Carrasco to prevent a fourth departure. In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Mychal Givens, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter were all headed out the door. That left general manager Billy Eppler a huge to-do list, but owner Steve Cohen greenlit unprecedented spending in order to get things back in order.

First up was Díaz, who was already one of the most-feared relievers in MLB before taking his game to new heights in 2022. He posted a 1.31 ERA over 61 appearances with a ridiculous 50.2% strikeout rate. Based on that monster campaign, the Mets wasted little time in bringing him back aboard. The day after the World Series ended, the Mets and Díaz were already in agreement on a five-year, $102MM deal, a record-setting guarantee for a relief pitcher in terms of both annual value and total guarantee.

There would still be more work to do in the bullpen, but the switched to the rotation following the Díaz deal. In a span of less than two weeks in early December, deGrom signed with the Rangers, Walker with the Phillies and Bassitt with the Blue Jays. The Mets effectively replaced them by signing free agents Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana.

The deGrom and Verlander moves amount to a swap of aces, though they come at different point in their careers. deGrom will turn 35 in June but has been limited by injuries over the past two years. Nonetheless, he secured a five-year deal from the Rangers. Verlander, on the other hand, is now 40. He essentially missed the entire 2020-2021 seasons, making just a single start in the former season before Tommy John put him on the shelf. Incredibly, he returned to the mound in 2022 and made 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, earning a Cy Young Award in the process. He tied Scherzer’s record-setting average annual value from the Mets, but on just a two-year guarantee.

Overall, this flutter of moves left the Mets with a strong on-paper rotation, but one with lots of risk. Senga has been an excellent starter in Japan, with a career ERA of 2.42 in NPB and a 1.94 figure last year. However, the move over the Pacific doesn’t always go according to plan, making Senga less than a sure thing. Quintana is coming off a great 2022 campaign but had a real rough showing in the two prior seasons.

There’s also the general looming risk of pitcher injuries to consider, which is present for every team but will be particularly notable with this group. Of the projected starting five, Senga is the only one who’s under 34 years old. Though Senga is just 30, he will be making the transition from Japan where pitchers usually take the ball once a week, to the five-day rotation preferred in North America. It’s virtually impossible for any five-man rotation to stay 100% healthy for an entire season, and this club’s relatively older group might need some extra focus on this department.

It looks like they might have to lean on their depth right out of the gate, as Quintana is set to undergo bone graft surgery to address a benign lesion on his rib and will be out until at least July. Fortunately, the Mets have a solid group of depth starters like David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi. They also acquired Elieser Hernández from the Marlins this winter, giving them another option.

In the midst of all that rotation shuffle, the club also took the Díaz approach to Brandon Nimmo, outbidding the field to keep him in the fold. There’s certainly risk in giving an eight-year deal to a player who has long had the injury-prone label, but he’s avoided lengthy absences in the past few years and he was easily the best center fielder available. High-risk options like Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier were the primary free-agent alternatives, and the trade market lacked options. The Mets clearly preferred to just stick with Nimmo and put down $162MM to prevent him from getting away.

There was one other outfield addition to come later, with Tommy Pham being brought in. He’s long been a strong option against left-handed pitchers and could perhaps take over that specialist role that Darin Ruf was supposed to fill last year. With left-handed hitting Daniel Vogelbach seemingly lined up to be the primary designated hitter, Pham could take the small half of a platoon there, while also occasionally giving the regular outfielders time off on occasion.

The club also decided it was time to move on from the James McCann experiment. He parlayed two good years with the White Sox, one of which was the shortened 2020 season, into a four-year deal with the Mets. But the first two years in Queens were quite dismal and it was decided to make a switch. The Mets signed Omar Narváez and traded McCann to the Orioles, eating most of his contract in the process. That’s a defensible move from a pure baseball perspective, but it’s an expensive one. The Mets will essentially have both catchers on the books and will be paying significant taxes on each, given where their payroll eventually ended up.

Circling back to the bullpen, bringing Díaz back was an impactful move, but there was still much more to do. The club would eventually re-sign Ottavino, in addition to adding David Robertson via free agency. Trades also brought aboard Brooks Raley and Jeff Brigham, while Sam Coonrod and Stephen Ridings were claimed off waivers and Zach Greene was selected in the Rule 5 (though he’s since been returned to the Yankees). There will also be a pseudo new addition in John Curtiss, who was signed a year ago but missed all of 2022 recovery from Tommy John surgery.

As mentioned, all of these moves shot the payroll up to incredible new heights, but it almost went even higher due to the unprecedented Carlos Correa free agency. Correa seemed destined to be a Giant for a time, as he and the club agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal in December. However, the club raised concerns about something in his physical, later revealed to be his right ankle. The Mets swooped in and agreed to bring Correa aboard for $315MM over 12 years, slightly less than his first agreement. The club already had a shortstop in Francisco Lindor but was planning to install Correa at third, displacing Eduardo Escobar. Correa’s agent Scott Boras reportedly contacted Cohen directly as the latter was vacationing in Hawaii, with Cohen both greenlighting the agreement and discussing it publicly with the media. “I felt like our pitching was in good shape,” Cohen said at the time. “We needed one more hitter. This puts us over the top.”

The holiday slow-down period arrived without the deal becoming official and reports started to emerge that the Mets had similar concerns to the Giants. In a stunning twist, the Mets and Correa’s camp couldn’t get the deal over the finish line and he eventually signed with the Twins on a much smaller $200MM guarantee. The six-year deal with Minnesota is just half the length of his agreement with the Mets, though there are four vesting options that could potentially take the contract to the ten-year mark.

With that deal falling through, the Mets will go into 2023 with a position player mix that’s fairly similar to last year’s club. Pham is a new addition but Dominic Smith is out after being non-tendered. Narváez will swap in for McCann behind the plate and Danny Mendick will be in the mix for a reserve infield role.

The pitching staff has seen much more turnover, but the outlook doesn’t appear to be drastically different. With Max Scherzer still around, the club can still deploy a strong one-two punch at the top of the rotation, with Verlander slotting into deGrom’s place. Carrasco is back and hanging onto a spot, and Senga will replace one of Bassitt or Walker. A healthy Quintana could eventually offset the loss of the other, but the Mets will test their depth early in the season. Peterson and Megill are both solid options who’d likely have rotation jobs elsewhere, and either could capably hold down a spot while Quintana mends. The bullpen ended up retaining Díaz and Ottavino, while players like Robertson and Raley will try to make up for the departures of Lugo, May, Rodriguez and others.

It can be debated about whether the 2023 roster is stronger or weaker than the 2022 version, but it seems to be in roughly the same area. The Mets are still good and should be in competition with Atlanta and Philly for the division yet again — but keeping pace with those clubs wasn’t cheap. Even without Correa on the books, Roster Resource pegs the Mets for a pure payroll of $355MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $374MM. Both of those numbers are well beyond anything in baseball history.

Since the Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, they will be a second-time payor in 2023. The new collective bargaining agreement significantly pushed the tax thresholds but also added a fourth tier, colloquially dubbed the “Steve Cohen tax,” as it has been seen by many as an attempt to rein in baseball’s richest owner. However, it doesn’t seem to have been terribly effective, given that the Mets have blown past that $293MM tier. As a second time payor, the Mets’ taxation tiers at the four different thresholds are 30%, 42%, 75% and 90%. The CBT isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so midseason moves will change the calculus, but the club is currently facing a tax bill of about $102MM on top of that $355MM payroll. They will also certainly have their top 2024 draft pick pushed back ten slots, as is the case for any clubs going over the third CBT tier.

This staggering commitment to winning is surely welcomed by segments of the fanbase, especially those who were so critical of the Wilpon family for not acting like a big market club during their tenure as owners prior to selling to Cohen. But not everyone around the majors is as enthused, with some of the league’s less-spendthrift owners recently forming an economic reform committee. The goal of this huddle seems to be some early game-planning for the next CBA, with some desiring a hard salary cap that would more adequately handcuff Cohen. That might be difficult to achieve with the MLBPA understandably having no real desire to allow such a cap to come into being, but it’s clear that Cohen’s imprint on the game is going to have reverberations. The current CBA lasts through the 2026 season, so it’s not a short-term concern, but it seems this offseason from the Mets has contributed to a future collision course.

How would you grade the Mets’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Mets' offseason?

  • B 43% (1,147)
  • A 39% (1,050)
  • C 10% (277)
  • F 5% (125)
  • D 3% (76)

Total votes: 2,675

In conjunction with the Mets’ offseason review, we hosted a Mets-focused chat on March 15. You can click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals New York Mets

The Royals’ Potential Infield Competitions

By | at March 14, 2023 12:21am CDT

The Royals head into 2023 with a pair of infield spots sewn up. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are arguably the two most important players in the organization. They’ll be at shortstop and first base, respectively, on an everyday basis if healthy.

Who will fill in alongside them on the dirt is a key question for the front office and first-year skipper Matt Quatraro. The second and third base positions look fluid, and while there are perhaps a pair of early favorites for playing time, both will likely need to perform well early on to hold the job.

Michael Massey

Massey, 25 next week, enters the season as the presumptive second baseman. The Illinois product was called upon in early August and got into his first 52 big league contests last year. Through 194 plate appearances, he hit .243/.307/.376 with four home runs. Massey only walked in 4.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at a 23.7% clip that was a little higher than league average.

It was a fine debut but not a resounding showing that’d firmly stake a claim to the job. A former fourth-round pick, Massey has generally been viewed by prospect evaluators as a well-rounded player but one without overwhelming upside. He’s coming off an excellent showing in the upper minors, though, hitting .312/.371/.532 in 87 games between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha.

Hunter Dozier

Dozier is headed into the third season of a four-year contract extension. The first two years haven’t gone as the club envisioned, with the former eighth overall draftee hitting only .226/.289/.391 with a 7.4% walk rate and 26.7% strikeout percentage in more than 1000 plate appearances. Paired with a corner only defensive profile, Dozier’s production has checked in below replacement level over that stretch. He’s yet to consistently maintain the level he showed in 2019, when he connected on 26 home runs with a .279/.348/.522 slash.

Despite the past few seasons’ struggles, the Royals seem set to give Dozier another crack. General manager J.J. Picollo told reporters on the eve of Spring Training that the 31-year-old was likely to see regular work at third base (via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). He’s played primarily first base and the corner outfield since 2020. Public defensive metrics haven’t been particularly enthused with his glovework anywhere on the diamond.

Nicky Lopez

Lopez has been in Kansas City’s Opening Day lineup in each of the last three years. That consistent playing time was due to his elite contact skills and defensive profile up the middle. Lopez has bottom-of-the-scale power and an offensive approach designed to hit the ball on the ground. He rode an unsustainable .347 batting average on balls in play to some success in 2021 but has otherwise been a well below-average hitter at the MLB level.

Even without much offensive impact, Lopez has shown some value in a bottom-of-the-lineup role. He’s a quality baserunner, an attribute that could be a bit more impactful than in years past thanks to the rule changes incentivizing more aggressive running. More importantly, he’s a strong gloveman at both middle infield spots. The division rival White Sox checked in on Lopez as part of their search for second base help in January, though K.C. was reportedly not eager to deal him for what’d have presumably been a fairly meager return. He’d likely be the first person up at the keystone if Massey doesn’t seize the opportunity early in the year.

Nate Eaton

The 26-year-old Eaton earned his big league debut last summer after hitting .295/.376/.510 in Omaha. He played regularly at third base down the stretch, getting into 44 games. Over his first 122 MLB plate appearances, Eaton hit a league average .264/.331/.387 and swiped 11 bases in 12 attempts. It was a strong showing from the former 21st-round pick that should earn him a roster spot out of camp.

Whether Eaton will get an everyday look at any one position remains to be seen. He’s played a decent amount of corner outfield in the minor leagues in addition to his time at third base. If Kansas City brass prefers him as an outfielder, they should have plenty of at-bats to afford him on the grass. He could also rotate through a handful of positions as a bat-first utility option from the right side of the plate.

Maikel García

García, 23, has just nine big league games under his belt. Aside from that cup of coffee, the Venezuela native split the 2022 season between the top two minor league levels. García hit .285/.359/.427 in 555 combined plate appearances, showing solid plate discipline and contact skills while stealing 39 bases.

Baseball America ranked him the #6 prospect in the organization this offseason. García only has 40 games of Triple-A experience and seems likely to start the year in Omaha but he could factor in at either second or third base in Kansas City before long. He’s played almost exclusively shortstop in the minors and will presumably start to branch out to other infield positions soon with Witt established at shortstop in Kansas City.

Samad Taylor

The Royals acquired the 24-year-old Taylor from the Blue Jays last summer as part of a two-player return for Whit Merrifield. Kansas City selected his contract this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. That puts him on the radar for his first big league call at some point, though he could certainly start the year in Omaha. The former 10th-round selection had hit .258/.337/.426 with nine homers and 23 steals in 70 games for the Jays’ top affiliate before the deal. He didn’t appear in a game with Omaha after the trade because of injury but is now healthy and participating in Spring Training. BA slotted him as the organization’s #24 prospect, suggesting he’s likely to serve a utility role.

Matt Duffy/Johan Camargo/Matt Beaty

This trio of veterans is in camp on minor league deals. They’re all jockeying for a possible utility role in Spring Training, with Beaty and Duffy off to strong starts in exhibition play. Duffy is a high-contact hitter who probably has the highest offensive floor of the group. Camargo offers the most defensive flexibility with the ability to play shortstop. Beaty has shown an intriguing combination of power and contact skills at his best but isn’t a great defender anywhere and is looking to rebound from a Murphy’s law 2022 campaign.

——————————–

Massey and Dozier look like the likeliest second and third base duo to start the season. Neither seems a lock to hold the job all year, though, raising the possibility for the club to go in a few different directions. Lopez offers a glove-first alternative off the bench, while younger players like García, Eaton and Taylor could play their way into opportunities if players above them on the depth chart struggle. García, in particular, seems like a potential long-term regular based on his defense and strike zone awareness.

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Big Hype Prospects: Brennan, Cavalli, Malloy, O’Hoppe, Capel

By | at March 13, 2023 10:49pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, I play it fast and loose with “big hype” in order to focus on some Spring Training battles.

Five BHPs In The News

Will Brennan, 25, OF, CLE (MLB)
(AAA) 433 PA, 9 HR, 15 SB, .316/.367/.471

A favorite of mine and my main contact with Baseball America, Brennan is in a roster battle with Oscar Gonzalez and Myles Straw this spring. Between average discipline and a strong feel for contact, he’s the Guardians latest candidate to walk more than he strikes out. The left-handed hitter looks like a future doubles machine even if his home run output is a tad underwhelming. His defense is solid in the corners and passable in center. With Straw on the roster and a fly ball-oriented pitching staff, he’s not ideal for center field. The lack of home run potential is an odd look in an outfield corner, yet his feel for hard contact implies a three- or four-win player in a similar mold to teammate Steven Kwan. After Gonzalez shatter expectations last season, it will be interesting to see how the Guardians distribute playing time.

Cade Cavalli, 24, SP, WSH (MLB)
(AAA) 97 IP, 9.65 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 3.71 ERA

Cavalli made his debut last fall and struggled in his only appearance. He flashed his impressive repertoire of four above average offerings, but his below average command was also on display. This is a profile that tends to experience success in the Majors after a sometimes lengthy adjustment period. The Nationals will be looking to build him up after throwing only 101.1 total innings last season. He’s expected to break camp with the club. Don’t be surprised if they take opportunities to give him extra rest or restrict his innings per start. The plan should look similar to the usage of Josiah Gray last season. He threw 148.2 innings across 28 starts. As a stuff-over-command starter, he has some of the same markers as Dylan Cease.

Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23, 3B, DET (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 591 PA, 17 HR, 5 SB, .289/.408/.454

After lighting up three levels in 2022, the Braves included Malloy in the Joe Jimenez trade. Atlanta’s recent track record with prospect trades is rather incredible. For the most part, they’ve kept the winners and dealt away the laggards. Malloy’s inclusion in a trade for a reliever with a checkered past could be viewed as a negative mark. I polled two scouting contacts and received different takes. One doesn’t believe Malloy impacts the ball enough to be a high-probability regular. The other is more optimistic about the plate discipline carrying the profile. Malloy walked in 16.4 percent of plate appearances last season while keeping his swinging strike rate below 10 percent. He has an extreme pulled contact approach with a roughly balanced 20/40/40 blend of liners/grounders/flies. Malloy resembles a Max Muncy starter kit – just keep in mind Muncy finally broke out in his age 27 season. There’s no guarantee Malloy finds the barreled and hard contact rates that drive Muncy’s success. On the other hand, he has a decent shot to play his way onto the roster later this season.

Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544

Acquired in the Brandon Marsh trade, O’Hoppe is competing with Max Stassi and out-of-options Matt Thaiss for the Angels catching job. Aside from a brief 16 plate appearance debut, O’Hoppe spent all of last season in Double-A. This spring, he has neither thrived nor embarrassed himself to this point. His 2022 breakout seemed predicated on a surge of plate discipline. That he further improved upon joining the Angels affiliate, including a .306/.473/.673 line in 131 plate appearances, is a positive sign. Assuming the club avoids injury, it could be tempting to give O’Hoppe further seasoning in Triple-A. There seemingly isn’t room for all three of Stassi, Thaiss, and O’Hoppe on the roster. While he’s their catcher of the future, clinging to Thaiss in the short-term makes some sense.

Conner Capel, 25, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 409 PA, 20 HR, 21 SB, .264/.364/.422

A favorite of mine to earn an extended look at some point this season, Capel has already outlasted JJ Bleday this spring. Capel is performing well following a successful 2022 split between St. Louis and Oakland. There’s every chance Capel is the best outfielder in camp at this moment. He’s been inconsistent throughout his minor league assent, at times showing discipline or over-aggression, a feel for contact or a hefty whiff rate, and a power- or speed-based profile. Given his long and winding journey, it’s hard to pin down exactly who he’ll become in the future. That he’s experimented with so many modes of play suggests he’s highly adaptable, a trait which does well to predict Major League success. While other franchises would view Capel as a capable backup, the Athletics should have starting opportunities available throughout the season.

Three More

Ji-Hwan Bae, PIT (23): In the mix for the Pirates starting second base job, Bae is off to a slow start this spring. So too is his competition. When Bae is on, he shows an above average eye with feel for contact. While he doesn’t produce much power, he should reach base enough to disrupt pitchers with his speed.

Jo Adell, LAA (23): Adell is expected to begin the season in Triple-A in deference to the Angels outfield veterans. That will trigger his final minor league option. It’s his last chance for regular playing time before playing waiver roulette. Adell can still put a charge in the ball, but it does seem like he would benefit from joining a non-contender willing to set him loose without restriction. His spring stats to date don’t suggest he’ll upset Taylor Ward or Hunter Renfroe for playing time.

Yainer Diaz, HOU (24): An aggressive free-swinger with thump, Diaz draws half-hearted comps to Salvador Perez. In the minors, he’s shown a capacity for making high-quality contact despite an expansive approach. He appears to be susceptible to breaking balls. Diaz is making a bid to join the Astros as their backup catcher – one who could offer more thump than defense-first Martin Maldonado.

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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

By | at March 13, 2023 10:53am CDT

The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

—

Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

Who do you think will win the AL Central?

Who will win the AL Central in 2023?

  • Guardians 41% (4,138)
  • Twins 27% (2,703)
  • White Sox 22% (2,269)
  • Royals 5% (508)
  • Tigers 5% (504)

Total votes: 10,122

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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?

By | at March 12, 2023 2:56pm CDT

The AL West, despite being home to the reigning World Series champions, figures to be among the more competitive divisions in the sport in 2023. According to the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs, it is the only division with four teams that have a better than 10% chance to win the division title in the coming campaign. All five clubs in the division have seen significant changes to their rosters over the course of the offseason. With Spring Training now in full swing and the heavy-lifting of the offseason largely done at this point, it let’s take a look at the AL West’s five clubs in search of the division’s next champion.

Houston Astros (106-56 in 2022)

En route to their 2022 World Series championship, the Astros had a phenomenal season, with AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander leading the pitching staff while each of Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman received MVP votes for their work in the starting lineup. The hitting corps didn’t change very drastically during the offseason, though they did upgrade at first base by replacing departing free agent Yuli Gurriel with longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu. The pitching staff saw more significant change, as Verlander departed for New York while Houston was unable to sign a proper replacement for their staff ace over the offseason.

While Houston lost Verlander to free agency this offseason, the rotation still figures to have plenty of capable arms, with Framber Valdez set to take over as the new staff ace while youngster Cristian Javier looks to follow up on a breakout campaign in 2022. Both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have tantalizing upside, though each comes with question marks, and Jose Urquidy can be expected to be a reliable back-end starter for the Astros once again as well. One catalyst for Houston’s rotation could be top prospect Hunter Brown. Brown, who will play this season at age 24, dominated in his big league debut at the end of last season, posting a microscopic 0.89 ERA that was backed by a fantastic 1.98 FIP in 20 1/3 innings of work, though only 12 of those innings came as a starter. The young righty seems to be in prime position to make the Opening Day rotation with McCullers expected to start the season on the shelf.

Seattle Mariners (90-72 in 2022)

The Mariners ended the league’s longest playoff drought last season, earning a wild card berth and advancing to the ALDS before falling to Houston in a 3 game sweep. Seattle looks to improve on that performance in 2023, as the club added Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock to the lineup this offseason and expects to get a full season from ace Luis Castillo, who was acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline last year. That said, the club did lose some key players over the offseason as well: Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier departed via free agency while Erik Swanson, Kyle Lewis, Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro were among the players who departed in the club’s various trades this offseason.

Minimal prospect talent is expected to impact the big league club this season in Seattle, leaving the Mariners to rely on their aforementioned external additions and improvements from their returning players if they are to catch the Astros in the standings. Former top prospect Jarred Kelenic should get some run in left field to open the season in order to prove he has returned to form after struggling to this point in his big league career, while Robbie Ray will surely be looking to recapture the magic of his 2021 Cy Young season. Meanwhile, other players such as youngsters Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby as well as breakout catcher Cal Raleigh merely need to repeat their strong 2022 campaigns in order to contribute to a winning Mariners club this season.

Los Angeles Angels (73-89 in 2022)

The 2023 season stands as the last one during which the Angels will have two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani under club control, as he is set to hit free agency following the coming campaign. Given the urgency of the club’s situation, it’s no wonder than GM Perry Minasian was aggressive in his attempts to supplement the roster with quality depth. He appears to have been largely successful in that endeavor, having added Tyler Anderson, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez to the pitching staff while supplementing the lineup with Gio Urshela, Brandon Drury, and Hunter Renfroe. Those pitching deals rebuilt the back of a Halos bullpen that lost Raisel Iglesias in trade to the Braves last offseason while supplementing the rotation with a durable, mid-rotation starter. That being said, the offensive additions were the main attraction of Anaheim’s offseason, as they transformed what has for years amounted to something of a stars and scrubs lineup by providing manager Phil Nevin with the quality depth necessary to weather injuries to the club’s many stars.

Those stars, of course, will remain the focus of the club, as Ohtani and Mike Trout stand as perhaps the two best players in the entire sport while Anthony Rendon will look to live up to his $245MM contract after struggling with injuries in recent years. Still, other players emerged as quality regulars in 2022 as well, including Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo. Bounce-back seasons from any of Max Stassi, Jared Walsh, or David Fletcher would improve the club’s depth even more, to say nothing of the possibility that longtime top prospect Jo Adell finally lives up to his potential. Overall, there’s certainly reason to think this might finally be the year that Trout and Ohtani suit up together in the postseason, even though the club enters the season looking up at many of its division rivals in terms of playoff odds.

Texas Rangers (68-94 in 2022)

The Rangers had a second consecutive explosive offseason this winter as they completely transformed their big league rotation by adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi as starting options while retaining Martin Perez. The hitting corps stayed largely the same after Corey Seager and Marcus Semien joined the club last offseason, though Texas did add Robbie Grossman to their outfield mix and expects to get contributions from top prospect Josh Jung this year at third base.

With a solid bullpen that features Brock Burke, Jose LeClerc, and new addition Will Smith among its back-end options, the Rangers figure to be set up well in that regard. The lineup should be decent, if not awe-inspiring, as it Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia in addition to Seager and Semien, while Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim form an interesting duo behind the plate and Leody Taveras figures to contribute in center upon his return from an oblique strain later this year. The answer to just how far this Rangers club will be able to go surely lies in the health and production of the reconstructed rotation, which added the most dominant pitcher in baseball in deGrom and plenty of upside in Heaney and Eovaldi, though all three pitchers have struggled badly with injuries at various points throughout their careers. Should that front three remain healthy and effective, though, this Rangers team could certainly pitch its way into the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Oakland Athletics (60-102 in 2022)

The A’s were among the worst teams in baseball last season, and there’s little reason for fans in Oakland to have more optimism about the coming campaign. After sending Frankie Montas to the Yankees at the trade deadline last year, the A’s saw the departures of catcher Sean Murphy, starter Cole Irvin, and reliever A.J. Puk in trades this offseason while the club added young, unproven talent such as Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Kyle Muller, and Freddy Tarnok. Some quality players do remain on the roster, however, as the A’s have retained each of Ramon Laureano, Shea Langeliers, Paul Blackburn, Tony Kemp, and Seth Brown to this point.

Oakland also added a few veteran options in free agency during the offseason, picking up Jace Peterson, Aledmys Diaz, Jesus Aguiler, and Trevor May throughout the offseason. The highlight of the A’s offseason seems to be Shintaro Fujinami, who was posted to the MLB this offseason by the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers. Fujinami has tantalizing stuff, including a fastball that can touch over 100 mph, but has struggled with his control throughout his career. Even if the A’s are able to unlock Fujinami’s potential, however, it seems extremely unlikely that the club will be able to compete with the four clubs its looking up at in the AL West.

_______________________________

While the Astros, as the reigning champions of not only the AL West but MLB itself, appear to be the favorite entering the 2023 season, each of the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers have plausible paths to not only contention but, perhaps, even the AL West crown headed into 2023. Though the same can’t be said for the Athletics, a four-team division race is sure to bring about excitement in the division all throughout the year.

What do you think? Will the Astros recapture the AL West crown for the sixth straight full season? Will the Mariners take another step forward and win their first AL West title since 2001? Will the Angels or Rangers leapfrog their competitors after a big offseason? Or will the Athletics surprise the baseball world against all odds? Let us know in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL West In 2023

  • Astros 52% (4,348)
  • Mariners 24% (1,960)
  • Angels 12% (973)
  • Rangers 8% (636)
  • Athletics 5% (393)

Total votes: 8,310

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

By | at March 11, 2023 4:31pm CDT

The Guardians had a pretty quiet offseason, but they splurged (by their modest payroll standards) on a pair of everyday sluggers to augment the lineup.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $22.5MM
Total spending: $39MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Josh Bell and Mike Zunino have combined for 82 home runs in 1713 total plate appearances since the start of the 2021 season, while the Guardians had a collective 127 homers over 6163 PA during the 2022 season.  Of all 30 Major League teams, only the punchless Tigers went yard fewer times than the Guardians in 2022, making power the obvious need for Cleveland heading into the offseason.

This isn’t to say that Bell or Zunino were necessarily at the top of the wishlist.  Zunino might not have even been the second choice, as such catchers as Sean Murphy and Christian Vazquez also drew interest from the Guards in both the trade and free agent markets.  However, the A’s and Guardians never lined up on a trade match for Murphy, and thus the backstop ended up headed to the Braves as part of a three-team, nine-player deal.  Vazquez, meanwhile, went elsewhere in the AL Central by signing a three-year, $30MM pact with the Twins.

With other options off the market, Cleveland pivoted to Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal — significantly less than the cost of Vazquez’s deal, or the prospect cost it would’ve taken for the Guardians to top Atlanta’s offer for Murphy.  It’s fair to assume that the Guards’ limited payroll played some role in the front office’s decision to ultimately land on Zunino, as well as the team’s related need to use its minor league system as a steady pipeline of talent.

If Zunino is healthy, the Guardians can reasonably count on the backstop to deliver his customary blend of strong defense, a lot of power, and also a lot of strikeouts at the plate.  Health is no guarantee, however, since Zunino’s 2022 season was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in July.  TOS surgery is still a new enough procedure that there isn’t much of a proven track record for predicting how well a player (particularly a hitter) might rebound in the aftermath.

In short, it means that the Guardians are somewhat rolling the dice with a position that has been relatively stable for years.  Cleveland has long been willing to accept subpar offense from their catchers (i.e. Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, or Luke Maile) in exchange for excellent glovework, and yet in the wake of Zunino’s surgery, the Guardians don’t really know what they’re getting offensively or defensively behind the plate.

Unsurprisingly, the Guards have tried to mitigate that risk with other catchers, signing Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, and Zack Collins to minor league deals.  That trio and in-house candidates Bryan Lavastida and David Fry are all in competition for the backup catching job, and the Guardians are also surely hoping that Bo Naylor earns another MLB promotion at some point in 2023.  Naylor will begin the season at Triple-A to amass more regular playing time, but if Zunino or any of the backup candidates struggle, it might force Cleveland’s hand in regard to how much more time Naylor spends in the minors.

The catching position needed to be addressed with Hedges and Maile entering free agency, and first base also stood out as a position of need considering the Guards’ need for power.  The answer was Bell, who will team with Josh Naylor (Bo’s brother) in a first base/DH timeshare.  It is worth noting that Jose Abreu was another prominent name the Guardians considered, to the point that the Guards reportedly made Abreu a three-year offer before the first baseman opted to sign with the Astros for a three-year, $58.5MM deal that was presumably out of Cleveland’s price range.

Bell’s contract is for a more modest $33MM over two years, and it might end up being a one-year, $16.5MM pact since Bell has the ability to opt out after the 2023 season.  The contract size and structure reflects Bell’s inconsistency over the last four seasons, as other teams may have been wary about giving a longer-term deal to a player with so many extreme peaks and valleys in his production.

The bottom-line numbers are strong, as Bell has hit .264/.353/.475 with 89 homers in 2051 PA since the start of the 2019 season, translating to a solidly above-average 120 wRC+.  But, the 2022 season was a microcosm of Bell’s ability to swing between hot and cold.  After crushing the ball with the Nationals prior to the trade deadline, Bell was dealt to the Padres as part of the blockbuster Juan Soto trade, and the first baseman then struggled badly with San Diego.

On the plus side, Bell’s high-contact, low-strikeout approach at the plate is a match for a Guardians team that adheres to that offensive philosophy.  There is also a chance that Bell’s best power numbers are yet to come, if he can get the ball in the air more often and cut back on his near-league-leading grounder totals.

Bell and Zunino are the big additions to a Cleveland roster that will look very familiar to the 2022 model, and the “if it ain’t broke…” logic can certainly apply to the Guardians’ relatively slow winter.  The Guards were the youngest team in baseball in 2022, and yet many of these young talents helped lead Cleveland to the AL Central title and then the deciding fifth game of the ALDS against the Yankees.  As well, an argument can be made that the Guardians were ahead of the curve in preparing for the 2023 season, since they’ve already built a roster based around speed and defense heading into a season where both facets of the game will be emphasized by the new rules.  (Even the pitch clock adjustment should be less difficult for a team with so many players who have so recently competed under a clock in the minor leagues.)

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti left no wiggle room in stating they “have every intention of trying to contend [in 2023], and trying to win a World Series.”  Still, even if the Guardians considered trading for Murphy, the concept of packaging several prospects in a win-now move generally isn’t Cleveland’s style.  Likewise, even trading more established players like Amed Rosario, Aaron Civale, or Zach Plesac to create room for the newcomers might’ve been a tactic the Guardians would’ve explored if they didn’t feel they were genuinely close to competing for a championship.  This isn’t to say that one of the starting pitchers or maybe even an everyday shortstop like Rosario might not be on the trade block by the deadline, but that would mean that either the Guardians have fallen out of the race, or else the team has immense faith that one of its wealth of young pitchers or young middle infielders is ready for a larger role.

The Guards did move some younger players in trades this winter, partly out of necessity to open up 40-man roster spaces for more up-and-comers.  Will Benson, Carlos Vargas, Owen Miller, and Jose Fermin all had some nice numbers in the minor leagues and Benson and Miller had even made their MLB debuts, but the Guardians moved all four of these players in low-level deals for cash or for minor leaguers who didn’t yet need to be placed on the 40-man.

The Nolan Jones-for-Juan Brito trade was a bit different, as Brito did immediately secure a spot on the 40-man roster.  The deal probably came as a surprise to some Cleveland fans who wondered why the Guardians were moving a player recently considered among the team’s top prospects, since Jones was a regular on top-100 lists from 2019-21.  That said, the Guards felt comfortable in moving Jones (coming off his MLB debut season) to the Rockies for Brito, a 21-year-old middle infielder who has yet to reach high-A ball.

It could be the Guardians were simply taken by Brito’s ability strong minor league production and up-the-middle defensive profile, or perhaps they had concerns about Jones’ high strikeout totals and his lack of a clear-cut defensive position.  A natural third baseman, he obviously had no path to playing time at the hot corner in Cleveland.  Since Jones was ultimately dealt for a prospect and not more of a win-now piece, perhaps other teams shared these concerns about Jones’ viability at the big league level.

More deals could certainly emerge over the course of the season, as the Guardians could be tempted to make a more significant prospect-for-veteran swap at the deadline in order to bolster themselves for a playoff race.  Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have set out to make the Guardians into perpetual contenders rather than a team that pushes their chips in for a singular run, but there might be a bit of extra pressure to try and win while the Guards still have Bell, Rosario (set for free agency after the 2023 season), Shane Bieber (after 2024), and while Jose Ramirez is still in his prime.  Plus, given how longtime manager Terry Francona isn’t sure how long his health problems will allow him to keep managing, the organization surely wants to capitalize on having one of the game’s best skippers in the dugout.

We’ve already seen some hints of Cleveland’s aggressiveness in its payroll hike, as the Guardians are set to spend around $90.7MM in 2023.  It isn’t a top-tier payroll by any measure, but it is an increase from the approximate $69MM the Guards spent on last year’s player budget.  It remains to be seen how much more leeway (if any) Antonetti and Chernoff have for any midseason additions, though it’s probably safe to assume that the Guardians aren’t going to suddenly splurge on any high salaries at the deadline.

How would you grade the Guardians’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Guardians' offseason?

  • B 45% (670)
  • C 33% (487)
  • D 11% (168)
  • A 8% (122)
  • F 3% (43)

Total votes: 1,490

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

By | at March 10, 2023 2:30pm CDT

The Royals focused mostly on adding veteran pitching, while clearing some space on the position-player side for new younger talents to get a larger big-league opportunity.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $23.75MM
Total spending: $32.25MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Heading into J.J. Picollo’s first winter as Kansas City’s general manager, the executive was pretty forthright about the team’s plans.  With an eye towards sticking to roughly the same $88MM payroll as last season, the Royals intended to add one or two veteran hitters (one of them a right-handed bat if possible), at least two starting pitchers, and some additional bullpen and rotation depth.

On the pitching end of that wishlist, it was mission accomplished.  All of the Royals’ guaranteed spending went towards the mound, as the club bolstered the rotation with free agents Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough, while also bringing back a franchise icon in Zack Greinke.  On the relief end, the Royals brought in one of the most accomplished closers of recent years by signing Aroldis Chapman for a late-game role, if not necessarily as the team’s next ninth-inning man.

Of course, there was a reason why Chapman was available for a modest one-year, $3.75MM deal.  Chapman is now entering his age-35 season, and his effectiveness has diminished over the last two seasons as his walk rates have skyrocketed.  While the southpaw’s control has long been inconsistent, Chapman’s 11.5% walk rate over his first 11 MLB seasons was substantially lower than the 16.4% walk rate he has posted in 2021-22.  His once-elite fastball has lost effectiveness and some velocity (down to “only” 97.7 mph in 2022), and batters also made far more hard contact against Chapman’s pitches in 2022 than at any other point in the 2015-22 Statcast era.

If that wasn’t enough, Chapman also spent close to nine weeks on the injured list last season due to an Achilles injury and an infection related to a recently-added tattoo.  After Chapman skipped a team workout prior to the start of the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Guardians, the writing was pretty clearly on the wall that his time in New York was through.

Ideally for the Royals, Chapman would regain his old form in a new environment, and help incumbent closer Scott Barlow solidify late-game leads (and perhaps even grab a few saves ahead of Barlow in certain situations).  That scenario would make Chapman an interesting trade chip heading into the deadline, assuming that K.C. isn’t in contention by midseason.

That short-term-asset mindset could apply to some of Kansas City’s other winter acquisitions, possibly any of their minor league signings who rebuild their value at the MLB level.  Greinke could potentially be flipped to a contender, but probably only if he approves such a move, assuming the Royals take the same approach with Greinke as they did prior to last year’s trade deadline.  While it wouldn’t be shocking if either Lyles or Yarbrough were also dealt for the right offer, the Royals at least obtained some extra control with those signings, since Yarbrough is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season and Lyles was inked to a two-year guarantee.

In an era of pitching specialization, Lyles is a bit of a throwback as a classic innings-eater, tossing 359 frames with the Rangers and Orioles in 2021-22.  Between durability and an increasingly solid walk rate, Lyles brings some pluses to the K.C. rotation, and Lyles’ numbers over his career have unsurprisingly been generally better when he has played in more pitcher-friendly venues (which bodes well for a move to Kauffman Stadium).  With low strikeout totals and an unspectacular 4.76 ERA since the start of the 2019 season, Lyles isn’t a frontline starter, but the Royals are only asking for him to hold the fort.

Over five seasons with the Rays, Yarbrough was a more of a modern take on the “innings eater” model, working as both a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) and as a traditional starter.  New Royals manager Matt Quatraro is very familiar with Yarbrough from his past role as Tampa Bay’s bench coach, and he’ll now try to get the left-hander on track after Yarbrough posted a 4.90 ERA over 235 innings since the start of the 2021 season.  Despite elite soft-contact rates and solid-to-excellent walk rates, Yarbrough’s lack of strikeout ability and lack of velocity has started to catch up with him, and batters are teeing off on his once-solid cutter/changeup combination.

Yarbrough is ticketed to begin the season as a starter, but Greinke, Lyles, and Brady Singer are the only locks for a full-time rotation job.  Between Yarbrough’s ability to work as a reliever and the fact that Brad Keller lost his starting spot last year, the Royals have some flexibility in deciding what they want to do with the last two rotation slots.  With injuries, performance, or perhaps trades factoring into the Royals’ decision-making process, former top draft picks like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, or Jackson Kowar could get some starts as the season develops.

These highly-touted young arms have yet to show much at the MLB level, which explains why Kansas City has had to target veteran fill-ins for the rotation.  To that end, the hirings of Brian Sweeney as pitching coach, Mitch Stetter as bullpen coach, and Zach Bove as an assistant pitching coach and director of Major League pitching strategy are perhaps more important than any roster move, since Picollo is overhauling the Royals’ approach in developing and managing pitchers.  It certainly seems as if K.C. will be putting a new focus on analytics, and Quatraro (Tampa Bay) and Sweeney (Cleveland) are both coming from teams with a strong track record of getting the most out of their pitchers.

If the fixes can take hold quickly, the Royals might see some significant improvement from their pitching side, which would be a huge step forward in their plans to finally break out of rebuild mode.  Naturally the club would also love to see development from its core of position players, and yet while the situation around the diamond didn’t need quite as much immediate help as the rotation, the Royals certainly put a lot more emphasis on adding pitching than hitting this winter.

Finances could’ve been a factor, given the rising prices for pitching throughout the sport.  The market allowed for Lyles to land a two-year deal, and for Greinke to land at least $8.5MM on a one-year contract, though Greinke’s deal has plenty of easily-reachable innings incentives that could boost the value to as much as $16MM.  This contract represented something of a middle ground between the $13MM guaranteed Greinke received last season, and the Royals’ desire for a more incentive-heavy deal with the 39-year-old this time around.

Without much leverage to boost the payroll, the Royals’ desire to upgrade the lineup didn’t really materialize, as the team is hoping to strike paydirt on at least one of its minor league signings.  Such veterans as Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley Jr., Matt Duffy, Jorge Bonifacio, Matt Beaty, and Johan Camargo are in camp as non-roster invitees, and Reyes probably represents the best chance for Kansas City to land that desired right-handed hitting upgrade.

The Royals saw plenty of Reyes during his time in Cleveland over the last four seasons, and it certainly looked as if Reyes had broken out as a fearsome power bat following a 37-homer season in 2021.  However, Reyes’ production completely cratered in 2022, to the point that the Guardians (a team themselves in sore need of power) designated him for assignment in August.

Reyes’ numbers only slightly improved after joining the Cubs on a waiver claim, and the 27-year-old now returns to the AL Central looking for a bounce-back season.  Kauffman Stadium isn’t exactly the ideal setting for a power-only player to rebound, yet since the Royals finished 26th of 30 teams in home runs in 2022, they’ll take whatever slugging potential they can get from Reyes as a DH and occasional outfielder.

The other minor league signings give K.C. some veteran depth behind their plan to let the kids play in 2023.  Duffy, Beaty, and Camargo will support the projected infield plan of Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, Vinnie Pasquantino at first base, one of Michael Massey or Nicky Lopez at second base with the other in a backup role, and Hunter Dozier likely to get most of the third base work.  There’s some fluidity in this plan, as Dozier can play other positions and (more pointedly) hasn’t hit much in any of his last three seasons, so Nate Eaton or Maikel Garcia could eat into the playing time at the hot corner.

While non-roster players are a part of every team’s Spring Training, the Royals have a particular need after moving some position players over the offseason.  In keeping the payroll stable, spending a bit extra to sign pitching meant that some salary had to be cut elsewhere, which certainly factored into the club’s decisions to trade Michael A. Taylor (owed $4.5MM in 2023) to the Twins, Adalberto Mondesi ($3.045MM) to the Red Sox, and Ryan O’Hearn ($1.4MM) to the Orioles.

None of the three deals were a real surprise, since Taylor’s name had been floated in trade talks since last year’s deadline, and it was perhaps unexpected that Kansas City even tendered O’Hearn a contract.  Mondesi was once one of baseball’s elite prospects, yet as the years went by and Mondesi was sidelined by one injury after another, the Royals were ready to move on.

Josh Taylor (coming to K.C. in the Mondesi trade) is no stranger to the injured list himself, having missed all of 2022 due to back problems.  But, the left-hander also brings a live fastball, lots of strikeouts, and three years of team control to Kansas City’s bullpen, so Taylor might be a very nice addition if he can stay healthy.

Pasquantino and Nick Pratto had already reduced O’Hearn’s role as a first baseman, and Taylor became expendable since the Royals have Drew Waters as their projected new center fielder.  That plan is on hold for the moment, however, since an oblique strain will likely keep Waters on the injured list for the start of the season.  Waters’ injury opened the door for the Royals to sign Bradley as center field depth, with Kyle Isbel as the first option up the middle while Waters recovers.

With a few weeks to go before Opening Day, K.C. might not be done making lower-level moves, or maybe even more significant trades involving in-house veterans.  For instance, Lopez drew some attention from the White Sox in January, though that particular avenue might be closed since the Sox have since signed Elvis Andus to fill their need for second base help.  If the Royals are confident in Massey as the starting second baseman and feel that the likes of Garcia or Duffy can provide middle infield backup, Lopez might still get shopped — the Dodgers stand out as an obvious possibility, since Gavin Lux will miss the season after tearing his ACL.

Picollo openly said that the Royals weren’t going to be too aggressive with their spending or roster-building during the winter, since the club first needs needs to figure out what they have in so many players who are lacking in proven MLB production, or even playing time at the sport’s highest level.  Perhaps the most interesting development would be if the Royals were able to negotiate contract extensions with any of their more clear building blocks, like Witt or Singer.

How would you grade the Royals’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Royals' offseason?

  • C 44% (778)
  • D 26% (455)
  • B 19% (332)
  • F 8% (140)
  • A 4% (78)

Total votes: 1,783

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

By | at March 9, 2023 7:30pm CDT

In conjunction with this entry in our annual Offseason in Review series, MLBTR will be hosting a Brewers-centric chat on March 10 at 10am CT. Click here to submit a question in advance.

The Brewers’ offseason began with a changing of the guard in the front office, as longtime president of baseball operations David Stearns stepped into an advisory role and handed the keys over to general manager Matt Arnold.

Major League Signings

Total spend: $9.72MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Early in the offseason, there was some belief that between Stearns stepping down and some of the early transactions under Arnold, the Brewers were shifting into a rebuilding mode. After all, they’d traded Josh Hader at the deadline, missed the playoffs and opened the winter by dealing away both Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong.

However, moves of that ilk have become par for the course in Milwaukee as players approach the end of their club control. The Brewers are not and never have been a large-payroll club, and though they’ve made some big-scale splashes (e.g. extending Christian Yelich, signing Lorenzo Cain), Milwaukee generally operates on the margins and makes extreme value-driven decisions that often look a bit befuddling.

This is the same club that non-tendered Chris Carter after he led the league in home runs and the same club that has regularly declined affordable options on role players like Brad Boxberger, Jedd Gyorko and Eric Thames over the years, believing (often correctly so) that slightly better values will surface late in the offseason.

In the case of Renfroe, he was only acquired in the first place as a means of Milwaukee jettisoning the remainder of their ill-fated contract with Jackie Bradley Jr. The Brewers parted with a pair of prospects in order to shed that contract, but the Renfroe swap was a financially motivated one to begin with. Moving one year of control over Renfroe on the heels of a nice season for three near-MLB righties feels like an on-brand move for this team, given Renfroe’s OBP and $11.9MM salary. It’s a reasonable price, but the Brewers probably didn’t consider there to be much surplus value.

The decision on Wong was somewhat similar. The Brewers have depth in the middle infield, headlined by prospect Brice Turang — the favorite for to succeed Wong at second base. Wong’s $10MM salary was effectively market value for a player of his age and skill set — perhaps a bit over — and the Brewers flipped him for a buy-low DH/corner outfield candidate who could help cover for Renfroe’s departure (Jesse Winker) and a controllable infielder who has had his share of struggles but was once a well-regarded prospect (Abraham Toro). Winker, in particular, is an interesting rebound candidate after he played through knee and neck injuries last year, both of which required offseason surgery. Prior to that, he was one of the game’s most productive bats against right-handed pitching.

The trades of Renfroe and Wong weren’t as much about shedding payroll — though that was surely a piece of it — as converting one year of control over a near-market-value asset into several years of control over a handful of largely big league-ready players, even if they’re seen as projects with limited ceilings.

Many fans and pundits braced for subsequent trades of stars like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames, but the Brewers instead told other clubs they planned to hang onto that trio of core players. It’s fair to wonder just how long that’ll last. Woodruff and Burnes are both controlled two more seasons, both owed over $10MM in 2023 and will both likely top $15MM in salary for the 2024 season. Neither seems likely to take a discount on an extension at this point — certainly not Burnes, after voicing frustration regarding the Brewers’ tactics in arbitration. Adames is more affordable, but only slightly so ($8.7MM). He’s also the youngest of the bunch and recently commented on how this offseason’s class of free-agent shortstops “set the bar” for future free agents at the position.

All three of those All-Star-caliber talents will be Brewers to begin the season, but by this summer, there’ll be increased focus on them. If the Brewers are out of contention or even on the cusp of it, they could be forced into decisions that rival last summer’s Hader dilemma: either ride out a star player’s penultimate year of club control in hopes of reaching the postseason (and in doing so lessen his trade value in the offseason), or make a trade that’s unpopular in the clubhouse and among fans in the name of restocking the system with near-MLB pieces.

It’s an unenviable spot, but that’s life for many small- and mid-market clubs with payrolls in the bottom half of MLB. Unpopular as the Hader trade was, the Brewers secured Esteury Ruiz in that swap — in addition to a near-MLB-ready rotation piece in Robert Gasser — and just months later flipped Ruiz to acquire five years of control over slugging catcher William Contreras.

The acquisition of Contreras (and righties Joel Payamps and Justin Yeager) pushed back on any notion that the Brewers were rebuilding. Contreras was a win-now piece with less team control (albeit by just one year) than the prospect surrendered to add him. He’ll step right into the heart of the lineup. The younger brother of Willson Contreras, William slashed .278/.354/.506 with 20 round-trippers in 376 plate appearances last season. His defense is a work in questionable at best, but Milwaukee has developed a reputation as one of the better clubs at improving catchers’ defense (as Omar Narvaez can attest). If Contreras can even be just slightly below-average in terms of framing and overall defense, he could rate among the game’s best all-around backstops.

The rest of Milwaukee’s whopping eight trades were more minor — depth moves that came at little expense to the farm or MLB roster. Out-of-options righties Bryse Wilson and Javy Guerra give Milwaukee a seventh/eighth rotation candidate and a flamethrowing bullpen wild card, respectively. Neither is guaranteed to make it through spring training, but the cost was cash and a PTBNL, so there’s little harm in rolling the dice on a pair of somewhat interesting right-handers.

Owen Miller, also picked up for a PTBNL, gives Milwaukee a right-handed-hitting depth piece who faded after a hot start with Cleveland in 2022. Milwaukee knows catcher Payton Henry quite well, having drafted him in 2016 and traded him to the Marlins in 2021 to acquire John Curtiss. He returns as a slugging third or fourth catcher who’s yet to hit above Double-A but cost only a Dominican Summer League lottery ticket (18-year-old Reminton Batista).

On the free-agent front, the Brewers stayed true to form and eschewed big-money deals, instead waiting out some potential bargains who all signed after the new year. A one-year, $4.5MM to bring southpaw Wade Miley back to the organization was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time, with Burnes, Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby and Wilson already on the roster. Just a month later, the Brewers announced that both Ashby and righty Jason Alexander were out at least a month of the regular season due to shoulder troubles. Miley suddenly looked like a more sensible addition, whether the Brewers knew at the time of the deal that their rotation was compromised or whether that proved to be sheer serendipity.

With Miley stepping in behind Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer, it seemed as though the out-of-options Houser could find himself moved to another club with a clear rotation vacancy. That could still potentially come to pass, but with Ashby and Alexander ailing, the rotation depth is thinner. Houser’s the next man up in the event of an injury to any of the top five, and with a reasonable $3.6MM salary and two seasons of club control remaining, the Brewers aren’t going to just give him away even if there’s no rotation spot open.

Anderson is a classic buy-low candidate on the heels of a non-tender from the Marlins. Shoulder and back injuries have derailed his once-promising trajectory, as he’s only appeared in 165 games and posted a tepid .233/.321/.359 batting line over the past two seasons. Prior to that, he was one of Miami’s best players. From 2018-20, Anderson split time between third base and right field, batting .266/.350/.436 in Miami’s pitcher-friendly home park. Picking him up at a $3.5MM price point has the potential to prove one of the offseason’s best bargains for any club, if he can recapture that peak form.

The defensive versatility Anderson offers shouldn’t be undersold. It may already be coming into play, in fact. While it looked early on as though he’d handle the bulk of the work at the hot corner, that’s no longer certain. Tyrone Taylor, the Brewers’ lone righty-swinging outfielder, is dealing with an elbow sprain that’ll cost him at least the first month of the season. Anderson can slide into right field, with Luis Urias slotting back in at the hot corner and Turang — assuming he shows well this spring — taking up everyday reps at second base. If Taylor returns as quickly as the Brewers hope, Anderson can either slide back to third base and push Urias into a utility role — or the Brewers can simply deploy Taylor as a traditional fourth outfielder. Even the Milwaukee brass probably doesn’t quite know how it’ll all shake out, but the mere fact that there are multiple courses of action to ponder is a testament to Anderson’s flexibility.

Beyond that group, most of Milwaukee’s offseason transactions exist around the periphery of the roster. Outfielder Blake Perkins landed a 40-man roster spot due to his ability to play all three positions and a .246/.357/.456 showing between Double-A and Triple-A with the Yankees last year. It’s a league-minimum deal if he’s in the Majors, and if not, he gives Milwaukee some depth.

The team inked veteran lefty Justin Wilson to a one-year contract with a 2024 club option as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He can perhaps help down the stretch, and if he returns to form, a net $2.35MM option on him for 2024 makes this a vintage Brewers type of move.

Minor league deals with veterans are commonplace, but Luke Voit and Tyler Naquin are fairly high-profile names to receive such deals, given Voit’s pre-injury track record and Naquin’s performance in Cincinnati over the past couple seasons. The injury to Taylor thins the outfield and seemingly increases Naquin’s chances of landing a roster spot. If the team instead prefers to push Winker into more of an everyday outfield role, that could help Voit’s chances. Right-handed bats Mike Brosseau and Keston Hiura make Voit perhaps redundant, but Hiura could be in for a make-or-break spring himself. The former first-rounder and top prospect is out of minor league options and has never replicated his huge rookie year, struggling with massive strikeout rates and poor defense at multiple positions in the seasons since.

Just as there’s uncertainty surrounding the final bench spots, there are questions in the bullpen. Milwaukee did little to address the relief corps, adding only a trio of out-of-options righties via trade: Wilson, Guerra and Payamps. Of the bunch, Payamps is coming off the best season and is the likeliest to make the roster. If Milwaukee carries all three, they’ll join Houser and Matt Bush as out-of-options arms in the bullpen, leaving Milwaukee with minimal flexibility.

It’s a big bet on a largely unproven group, but the Brewers seem comfortable with a back-end featuring All-Star Devin Williams, Bush and breakout rookie Peter Strzelecki (2.83 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate in 35 innings). Southpaw Hoby Milner quietly enjoyed a nice 2022 season as well. Milwaukee makes enough moves around the edges of the roster that it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they move on from a less-established, out-of-options arm in the name of greater flexibility, but spring training will serve as a proving grounds for Wilson and Guerra.

In the outfield, the Brewers will hope that even with Renfroe gone, they can get a resurgence from Yelich and lean on a combination of Winker, Anderson, Taylor (once healthy) and perhaps Naquin in the corners. They didn’t add a center fielder, which is likely reflective of the thin market at the position, Taylor’s ability there and the organization’s faith in former first-rounder Garrett Mitchell, who hit .311/.373/.459 in 68 plate appearances as a rookie last year. The 24-year-old whiffed in 41% of those plate appearances and was propped up by a ludicrous .548 BABIP, but Mitchell also batted .287/.377/.426 across three minor league levels with far less concerning strikeout numbers. Behind him are prospects Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer, both of whom made some top-100 lists in the offseason. Both annihilated Triple-A pitching in 2022 and both have experience at all three outfield slots. Outfielder Jackson Chourio, meanwhile, is one of the top ten prospects in the entire sport. He’ll turn just 19 this weekend but already briefly reached Double-A in 2022. That youth makes him a long shot for 2023, unless the Brewers put him on a Juan Soto-esque fast track.

For all the fretting post-Renfroe/Wong, the Brewers still have a dominant rotation, one of the game’s best relievers, and a lineup with several solid regulars and multiple intriguing youngsters (Mitchell, Turang, with Frelick and Wiemer looming). Neither Pirates nor the Reds are threats in the NL Central, with both at differing stages of their rebuilding processes. The Cubs are improved but still building up and may be another year from truly reemerging. They could beat expectations and find themselves in the race, but right now, the division again looks like a battle between Milwaukee and St. Louis.

The Brewers have a good shot at competing, and if they get to the postseason, the presence of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Williams is so formidable that they can’t be counted out. But if things are more borderline this summer or they’re totally out of it, Burnes, Woodruff and Adames could become some of the most fascinating (and expensive) names on the market.

One way or another, we’re nearing the end of this group’s run together, but the Brewers have proven that they’re willing to make difficult trades in the name of establishing a new core, and they’ve managed to be competitive more often than not under the Stearns/Arnold regime. We’ll see if that changes with Stearns stepping to the side.

How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason?

How would you grade the Brewers' offseason?

  • C 39% (872)
  • B 38% (856)
  • D 13% (294)
  • A 5% (123)
  • F 5% (113)

Total votes: 2,258

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

The Mets’ Options If Jose Quintana Misses Time

By | at March 8, 2023 10:57pm CDT

The Mets entered spring training with a deep but revamped rotation. Gone were longtime ace Jacob deGrom and steady right-handers Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. In their place, the Mets signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, NPB star Kodai Senga and veteran lefty Jose Quintana, who had a resurgent campaign between the Pirates and Cardinals this past season.

That the first injury of the season for manager Buck Showalter’s club came from the typically durable Quintana is both unexpected and unwelcome news. The 34-year-old southpaw logged 32 starts between Pittsburgh and St. Louis in 2022, logging an excellent 2.93 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate. It was a vintage Quintana showing, hearkening back to his peak years in Chicago — and it was impressive enough to land him a two-year, $26MM contract (13 times larger than the one-year, $2MM guarantee he received from Pittsburgh one winter ago).

Quintana will be out for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, however, owing to a stress fracture in his rib. There’s no sense running wild with speculation as to whether that’ll amount to weeks or months at this juncture, but at the very least, Opening Day doesn’t appear to be in the cards. Quintana exited after just one inning in his most recent Grapefruit League start due to discomfort, so this isn’t likely to be an injury he can just pitch through.

If there’s a silver lining for the Mets, it’s that even through all of the turnover in the rotation, they’ve managed to maintain a solid amount of depth beyond the projected Opening Day quintet of Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana and Carlos Carrasco. There were times when the team appeared open to moving Carrasco, but the early setback for Quintana highlights the importance of retaining him and so much of the other depth from which they could’ve dealt.

To that end, with what looks to be at least a short-term vacancy in the rotation, let’s run through the Mets’ options to fill the spot.

The Two Favorites

David Peterson, LHP, 27 years old

About as overqualified a sixth starter as you’ll find in the league, Peterson was the 20th overall pick in the 2017 draft and has spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues with the Mets: two of them good and the middle one (2021) quite bad. The lefty sandwiched an ugly 5.54 ERA between a pair of sub-4.00 efforts, with the end result being a solid 4.26 ERA (4.18 FIP, 4.14 SIERA) in 222 innings at the big league level.

Peterson leaned more heavily on his four-seamer and slider than ever before in 2022, dropping his sinker/two-seam usage from 26.3% in 2021 to 12.3% last season. He posted career-best totals in swinging-strike rate (12.8%), opponents’ chase rate (31.2%) and opponents’ contact rate (71.2%). It’s tempting to think that some of those gains might be from working out of the bullpen for a spell, but while Peterson had similar ERAs as a starter and a reliever, he had better strikeout and walk rates while working out of the rotation.

Fresh off a season that saw him toss 105 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.4% grounder rate, Peterson is the ostensible front-runner to take any early starts that Quintana might miss. Other clubs surely had interest in him this winter — particularly once the Mets had signed all three of Verlander, Senga and Quintana — but the decision to hold onto him is already paying off.

Tylor Megill, RHP, 27

If Peterson is the favorite, Megill might not be all that far behind. He made 18 respectable starts in 2021, pitching to a 4.52 ERA with more impressive strikeout and walk rates (26.1% and 7.1%, respectively). In 2022, when the Mets needed a starter, Megill stepped up and took the ball on six occasions from April 7 through May 4, pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA with a gaudy 36-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 1/3 innings of work. His fastball, which averaged 94.7 mph in 2021, was up to nearly 96 mph on average in 2022, and Megill suddenly looked like far more than a band-aid on an injury-marred starting staff — at least until the injury bug bit him, too.

The Mets placed Megill on the 15-day injured list with biceps inflammation on May 12, just days after he was tattooed for eight runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals. He returned on June 10, made a pair of starts that lasted 3 1/3 frames apiece (yielding a combined six runs in the process) and went back on the IL just seven days after being activated — this time due to a shoulder strain. The absence proved far more substantial this time around. Megill was transferred to the 60-day IL just 10 days after his original placement, and he remained sidelined all the way until Sept. 19.

In his career, Megill has overwhelmed right-handed opponents with a power fastball/slider combination, but his changeup has been generally ineffective, leaving him susceptible to left-handed batters. That bears out in his alarming platoon splits. Righties have been downright flummoxed by him, batting only .202/.247/.331. Lefty bats, however, have absolutely clobbered Megill at a .307/.368/.568 clip. He’ll have a chance to win the job, but if he’s going to find long-term success, he’ll need to find a better offering to neutralize opponents in platoon settings.

Longer Shots Who Could Start At Some Point In 2023

Joey Lucchesi, LHP, 29

Acquired from the Padres in the three-team deal that sent Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh to San Diego, Lucchesi made 11 solid appearances for the Mets in 2021, serving in this exact type of sixth starter role that’s now resurfaced in Queens. Eight of those appearances were starts, and the former fourth-round pick worked to a decent 4.46  ERA with a more-impressive 3.40 FIP and 3.79 SIERA. Lucchesi punched out a strong 26.1% of his opponents against a similarly strong 7.1% walk rate. He might’ve held that role down the stretch — and into 2022 — had he remained healthy, but a late-June diagnosis of a torn ulnar collateral ligament led to Tommy John surgery. Lucchesi missed the remainder of the 2021 season and all of the 2022 campaign.

Early in his career with the Friars, Lucchesi looked the part of a solid fourth starter, pitching to a 4.14 ERA in 56 starts and 293 2/3 innings from 2018-19. He’s thrown just 44 innings since that time, due primarily to injury, but he owns a 4.24 ERA in 337 2/3 big league innings. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Mets can send him to Triple-A Syracuse to stay stretched out and monitor his workload if they go another route in the rotation. Given that he missed all of the 2022 season, Lucchesi is likely to have his innings capped this season, which probably works against him — especially in the early stages.

Elieser Hernandez, RHP, 27

An offseason acquisition made with an eye toward bolstering the pitching depth, Hernandez came over alongside reliever Jeff Brigham in a deal sending minor leaguers Franklin Sanchez and Jake Mangum to Miami. He’s fresh off a tough 2022 season, but the former Rule 5 pick — the Marlins selected him out of the Astros organization in 2017 — was once a promising member of the Marlins’ young core of arms. From 2020-21, he pitched 77 1/3 innings of 3.84 ERA ball with plus strikeout (26.3%) and walk (5.7%) rates.

Home runs and injuries have been a problem for Hernandez throughout his career, however. His breakout 2020 campaign was shortened by a lat strain, and his 2021 season was interrupted both by a strained quadriceps and inflammation in his right biceps. He’s only shown glimpses of his potential in the Majors, but Hernandez also sports a stout 2.86 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 129 Triple-A frames spread across parts of four seasons. He has a minor league option remaining,  but he could also make the club as a long reliever.

Jose Butto, RHP, 25

Butto, who’ll turn 26 in less than two weeks, made his big league debut last year when he tossed four innings but was knocked around by the Phillies, who scored seven runs against him at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t a great first impression, but Butto nonetheless had a strong year in the minors, logging a combined 3.56 ERA in 129 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

Scouting reports at each of Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs laud Butto’s plus changeup and above-average heater, but he lacks a third offering, leading to plenty of speculation that he’ll ultimately settle in as a long reliever or swingman. There’s more upside here if he can improve either his curveball or his slider, but he’d be hard-pressed to leapfrog the names ahead of him for starts early in the season. Still, he’s already gotten his feet wet in the Majors and had success in the upper minors, so with some improvements to his secondary pitches and/or a big early performance in Syracuse, Butto could find himself making some starts at some point this year, as injuries on the big league roster necessitate.

—

As far as non-roster options go, the Mets are generally light on MLB-ready starting pitching in the upper levels of their system (beyond the 40-man names already covered above). Recent trades have thinned out some of that depth, with both J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller going to the A’s for Chris Bassitt, while Thomas Szapucki went to the Giants as part of the Darin Ruf swap. Most of the Mets’ very best prospects are position players, and the top-ranked pitchers in their system are generally multiple years from MLB readiness.

The presence of Peterson, Megill, Lucchesi, Hernandez and Butto gives the Mets ample depth from which to draw, particularly given how solid both Peterson and Megill looked at times last year. Still, pitcher performance is volatile and injuries are inevitable. If the Mets want to further cultivate some depth, there are a handful of recognizable veteran names who’ve yet to sign — Michael Pineda, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy among them. Whether that trio, or any of the other remaining starters on the market, is willing to take a minor league deal remains to be seen.

Failing that, the Mets can perhaps keep an eye on other veterans around the league who are currently on minor league/non-roster deals. Many of those pitchers have opt-out opportunities if they don’t make their current club’s roster or upward mobility clauses that allow them to leave the current organization if another team is willing to offer an immediate 40-man roster spot.

For the time being, it doesn’t appear particularly crucial for the Mets to make another addition, but a second injury in the rotation would start to leave an otherwise strong staff looking vulnerable, and there’s little harm in stockpiling depth to the extent possible.

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