MLBTR Originals

The Tigers Will Be Getting Plenty Of Calls About Their Bullpen

By Steve Adams | July 13, 2022 at 1:20pm CDT

Not much has gone right for the Tigers so far in 2022. They’re without the majority of their projected starting rotation. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery, while their other recent No. 1 overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, has looked overmatched in the big leagues so far. Javier Baez, who signed a $140MM contract over the winter, has had a roller coaster season en route to an overall .211/.248/.372 batting line. Their trio of productive veterans from the 2021 season — Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario and Robbie Grossman — are all struggling through arguably the worst seasons of their career.

The 2022 Tigers serve as a reminder that not all rebuilding efforts go as smoothly as the most famous success stories in Houston and Chicago, but for all the bleak outcomes thus far, they’ve had their share of successes. Tarik Skubal has struggled of late but looks like a bona fide mid-rotation starter or better through a half season of innings. Outfielder Riley Greene, the No. 5 overall pick in 2019, has ascended to the top of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings and held his own through his first 99 plate appearances. And perhaps most surprisingly, despite all the struggles in the rotation and the tax that typically takes on a team’s relief corps, the Tigers rank third in all of baseball with a collective 3.05 bullpen ERA.

Success from Detroit’s collection of relievers shouldn’t be a total surprise, though few would’ve expected quite this extent. Flamethrowing lefty Gregory Soto established himself as a quality ’pen option last year, and former Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer handled his early-2021 move to the bullpen fairly well. The Tigers brought in one of the more underrated free agents on the market this past offseason when they inked lefty Andrew Chafin to a two-year pact (the second season of which is a player option).

That said, the Tigers have gotten contributions from some fairly unexpected names. Joe Jimenez was once hailed as the closer of the future in Detroit, but he pitched his way out of a roster spot in 2021, when he was optioned to Triple-A on multiple occasions (for the first time since 2017). This year, he looks like the power arm he was always expected to be. Twenty-six-year-old righty Alex Lange, acquired in the 2019 trade that sent Nick Castellanos to the Cubs, has improved upon his 2021 rookie strikeout and walk rates, setting himself up as a potential long-term option in the late innings. Righty Will Vest, briefly lost to the Mariners via the Rule 5 Draft but thankfully (well, for the Tigers) returned midway through that season, has a 3.55 ERA in 33 frames (and a 2.25 mark if you set aside one fluky five-run meltdown). Starter-turned-reliever Tyler Alexander has a 1.06 ERA out of the ’pen — albeit with less convincing secondary marks.

There have been other contributors, but the overarching point here is that the Tigers have received unexpectedly sound contributions from their relief corps — including the expected veterans and some more controllable, young options alike. Over the next three weeks, those more experienced arms figure to be among the more popular names on the trade market. Let’s run through some of the possible names available…

Michael Fulmer, RHP, 29 years old ($4.95MM salary, free agent at season’s end)

Fulmer, in particular, seems a likely candidate to be moved. After injuries decimated the former rotation stalwart’s mid-20s, he’s returned as a shutdown option in the late innings, serving as the primary bridge to the hard-throwing Soto. Through 33 1/3 innings so far in 2022, Fulmer owns a 1.89 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.7% walk rate. Fulmer’s K-BB% could certainly stand to improve, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that he’s yielded just one earned run over his past 18 innings (0.50 ERA), punching out 30.1% of his opponents along the way.

Since moving to the ’pen on a full-time basis on May 5 of last season, Fulmer boasts a superlative 2.10 ERA with 23 holds, 16 saves, an above-average strikeout rate and walk/ground-ball tendencies that are only slightly below par. He’s limiting hard contact and barrels, averaging 95.3 mph on his heater and has generally looked the part of a quality late-inning arm. Fulmer is a free agent at season’s end, and his $4.95MM salary is generally affordable. It’d frankly be a surprise if the Tigers didn’t trade him.

Andrew Chafin, LHP, 32 years old ($5.5MM salary, $6.5MM player option for 2023)

As with Fulmer, it’d be a surprise if Chafin lasted in Detroit beyond the deadline — although the circumstances surrounding him are slightly different. He’s technically signed through the 2023 season, but next year’s $6.5MM guarantee comes in the form of a player option. Based on Chafin’s 2.30 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 50.8% ground-ball rate, it’d take a mammoth second-half collapse or a serious injury for him to opt into the second season of the contract.

At one point this winter it looked as though Chafin might’ve been a candidate to land a three-year deal, but the two-year pact and the player option likely mean he’ll come out ahead of where he’d have been with a straight three-year arrangement. Chafin just turned 32 last month, and this second straight dominant season proves two things: his shaky performance in 2020 was a small-sample fluke, and the huge gains he made in terms of his command appear to be sustainable.

Barring an unexpected collapse or the aforementioned injury scenario, Chafin seems like a lock to hit the market in search of either a three-year deal or a two-year pact with a higher annual value than his current $6.5MM level. Teams will view him as a likely rental, though the downside of being potentially “stuck” with him following an unforeseeable injury (due to that player option) could tamp down his value a slight bit.

Joe Jimenez, RHP, 27 years old ($1.785MM salary, arb-eligible through 2023)

Although he’s controllable beyond the current season and the Tigers are trying to put together a winning club, it’d be understandable if they were tempted to capitalize on the 27-year-old Jimenez’s bounceback from an awful 2020-21 stretch (6.35 ERA in 68 innings).

Jimenez looks every bit like the late-inning arm the Tigers foresaw earlier in his career. Last night’s pair of runs allowed did bump his ERA from 2.97 to 3.48, but Jimenez has punched out exactly one-third of his opponents and walked just 5.9% of them. This year’s 95.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-best mark, and Jimenez is tied for 25th among 173 qualified relievers when it comes to inducing chases off the plate (37.2%). With top-of-the-scale four-seam spin rate and excellent percentile rankings in most key Statcast metrics, Jimenez looks like he’s finally arrived — it just happened several years later than hoped.

Detroit will have a decision to make: cash in now and try to get max value when Jimenez has more than a season of club control remaining, or hold onto him and risk a return to his prior struggles. A healthy Jimenez could play a key role on what the Tigers’ front office surely hopes will be a more competitive 2023 team, but it’s also possible that he could be used as a part of a trade to acquire a more controllable piece who could contribute to that same club.

Wily Peralta, RHP, 33 years old ($2.5MM salary, free agent at season’s end)

Peralta revived his career with the 2021 Tigers and has enjoyed solid results out of the bullpen despite shaky command this season. He’s sporting a 2.16 ERA but also has a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate and a lofty 14% walk rate. Still, Peralta throws hard (95.6 mph average fastball), keeps the ball on the ground (48.4%) and has yielded roughly average levels of hard contact. He’s also a former starter who’s no stranger to working multiple innings.

Peralta is currently out with a hamstring injury, which further clouds his trade possibilities. Still, the asking price won’t be high, and there’s little reason for the Tigers not to move him, unless they simply don’t find an interested party willing to give anything up in return. But with the number of teams needing bullpen help and rotation depth, one would imagine a pitcher with a 3.57 ERA over his past 201 1/3 big league innings and a near-96 mph average on his sinker would drum up modest interest, sub-par command or not.

Gregory Soto, LHP, 27 years old ($722K salary, arb-eligible through 2025)

The longest shot among Tigers bullpen arms to be traded due to that remaining club control and the team’s stated desire to compete sooner than later, Soto is also the most tantalizing raw talent in the group. Lefties who average 98.6 mph on their fastballs aren’t exactly common, after all, and Soto’s 11.3% walk rate in 2022, while still well north of the league average, is the best of his career.

Soto doesn’t miss as many bats as one would expect for a pitcher with his raw stuff, and this year’s 24.1% strikeout rate is a career-low — due in no small part to a decrease in the usage of a slider that hasn’t been nearly as effective in 2022 as it was in prior seasons. In that sense, moving Soto would almost be “selling low” at this point, which is a counterintuitive thing to say about someone recently named to the All-Star team.

In all likelihood, it’s a moot point. The Tigers are aiming to compete as soon as next season, and they control Soto all the way through the 2025 campaign. It’d take a massive return for them to move him, and he’s listed here more because teams will likely try to pry him loose than because he actually has a chance to be moved.

—

By the time Aug. 3 rolls around, it seems likely that Detroit will have found deals to their liking for Fulmer and Chafin at the very least. Jimenez, with just one season of club control remaining and some shaky performances in his recent track record, would seem a decent candidate to go as well. Peralta should move if healthy. The Tigers will undoubtedly get ample interest in the likes of Soto, Lange and some of their more controllable arms, but that’s tougher to envision.

It’s not the type of busy deadline that GM Al Avila and assistant GMs Jay Sartori, David Chadd and Sam Menzin hoped to have, but it seems likely that they’ll still be plenty active over the next 20 days.

An Under-The-Radar Controllable Starting Pitcher Trade Candidate

By Darragh McDonald | July 12, 2022 at 11:59pm CDT

The old saw that states “you can never have enough pitching” gets bandied about a lot at this time of year. With the trade deadline now three weeks away, just about every contender is looking to bolster its staff by adding an arm or two. Even the Yankees, who have managed to keep their five starters healthy enough to make 15 starts each so far, are in the Luis Castillo bidding.

Naturally, there’s been much attention on Castillo, along with his teammate Tyler Mahle and Oakland’s Frankie Montas. All three of them have been in trade rumors for a long time as their respective clubs have been paring back payroll. With Mahle and Montas both dealing with minor injuries, Castillo has understandably become the primary target, with the Cardinals, Mariners, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees and Blue Jays all having been publicly connected to his market in recent days. But even if the Reds do pull the trigger on a deal, only one of these teams will get the headline-grabbing prize, leaving the rest to turn to other options.

For teams that fall short on Castillo or the other big names, they might want to consider calling Kansas City about 26-year-old Brad Keller (turning 27 in a couple of weeks). He hasn’t been the subject of any trade rumors thus far, but he came in at #43 on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates. While he won’t be able to offer the same kind of ace-like upside, what he can provide is fairly reliable outcomes.

Nabbed by the Royals from the Diamondbacks in the 2017 Rule 5 draft (actually selected by the Reds and promptly traded to KC), Keller has been a mainstay of their pitching staff over the past 4 1/2 seasons. He doesn’t have overwhelming strikeout numbers, but generally avoids barrels and gets ground balls in order to consistently put up solid numbers. He’s appeared in 121 career games, throwing 591 2/3 frames with a 4.03 ERA. His career strikeout rate of 17.4% is a few ticks below average, which is 21.4% for starting pitchers this year. His 9.2% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 7.7% rate among starters. Then his 51.1% ground ball rate is well above the customary average range, which is at 42.6% this season.

Those numbers for Keller have also been fairly consistent year-over-year, with his strikeout rate always falling between 16.3% and 19.6%, his walk rate between 7.8% and 10.4%, with his grounder rate between 47.8% and 54.4%. But as a ground ball pitcher, the one thing that’s not consistent is BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Strikeout pitchers naturally have more control of their outcomes as they aren’t reliant on batted balls finding gloves and being fielded cleanly. A pitcher like Keller can be helped or harmed by randomness in this regard. For instance, in 2020, Keller’s BABIP dropped to .233, about 50 points below his previous seasons. That led to a career-best 2.47 ERA that year. However, the wheel of fortune spun him round the other way in 2021, as his BABIP shot up to .347 and took his ERA to 5.39.

It doesn’t seem like the BABIP gods can fully explain Keller’s poor 2021 season, as his barrel rate also increased. After limiting barrels to rates between 3.7 and 5.9% in his first three campaigns, it jumped to 10.9% last year. Keller has evened out here in 2022, though, with a .275 BABIP, 5.5% barrel rate and 4.15 ERA, all very close to his career norms. It’s also possible that he could improve on these numbers with a change of scenery to a team with better defense, depending on which advanced metric you prefer. The Royals as a team have -19 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th in the majors, though Outs Above Average has them 13th and Ultimate Zone Rating 6th.

Guys with fairly reliable ERAs just north of 4.00 maybe aren’t as exciting as the 2.92 that Luis Castillo currently owns, but they have the potential to be important pickups nonetheless. It’s worth remembering that while Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios got the headlines last year, the Cardinals were able to pick up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ, who stabilized their rotation and helped the club surge into the postseason.

Financially speaking, Keller is making $4.825MM this year and can be controlled for one more season via arbitration. Once the deadline rolls around, there will be less than $2MM of that to be paid out, making him an easy fit on just about every team’s budget. Of course, the Royals might want to hang onto him for the same reasons, especially considering their young starters have mostly disappointed this year. Of their pitchers that have made more than one start this year, Keller’s 4.15 ERA is actually the lowest among them, followed by Brady Singer’s 4.25 and Zack Greinke’s 4.52. With Greinke a free agent at season’s end, a Keller trade would leave the club with a lot of work to do on their rotation in the offseason.

General manager J.J. Picollo spoke to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star in the wake of yesterday’s Drew Waters trade and also spoke about the upcoming deadline. “We don’t feel the extreme need that we have to move any players,” he said. “We feel like we’re in a good spot. We know where the interest lies from other teams right now. Now, it’s a matter of them assessing how willing they are.” Based on those comments, it doesn’t seem like they’re planning any kind of drastic selloff. After all, they have been trying to compete in the past couple of seasons, just without success thus far. But with a 34-52 record that has them in the AL Central basement, they could perhaps extract more value from a prospect or two that can help them further into the future than an innings eater that’s approaching the open market.

If they are willing to consider a deal, they should get plenty of interest. The aforementioned Cardinals could look to Keller, like they looked to Lester and Happ last year. Their strong defense should work well with Keller’s ground ball approach and they will be without Jack Flaherty for the next couple of months. The Yankees already have strong upside in their rotation but might want a steady arm to make spot starts, allowing them to control the workloads of their front five and keep them healthy. They’re also leading the league in Defensive Runs Saved this year, making them a solid fit for a contact pitcher. The Giants are two games out of a playoff spot and might not want to give up big prospects to chase a Wild Card, but they could grab Keller to make up for the loss of Anthony DeSclafani and hope to stay in the race. The Blue Jays have a lopsided rotation with Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah at the front, but questions at the back due to the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu and struggles of Yusei Kikuchi. The Brewers are in a similar situation, with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the front, but injuries to Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser forcing them to lean on their depth for the back end. Ditto for the Phillies who have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler at the front but have Ranger Suarez and Zach Eflin on the IL. The Twins, Red Sox and Rays have all put starters on the IL in the past week or so, and more injuries are sure to pop up around the league in the weeks to come.

As mentioned, the Cardinals patched holes with Lester and Happ last year and went 22-7 in September. The Braves added Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall when they were below .500 but ended up winning the World Series. Keller alone isn’t likely to turn a team’s entire season around, but he’s a decent puzzle piece that could fit in a number of places. Making a splash at the deadline is great fun, but it can sometimes be the little additions that make the biggest difference.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Angels’ Top Rental Trade Chip

By Anthony Franco | July 12, 2022 at 1:59pm CDT

The Angels have had another disappointing first half, one that sets them up as deadline sellers. After a blistering April, they’ve had losing records in each of the following three months. They have a woeful 11-26 mark going back to the start of June, and at 11 games under .500, there’s little hope of playing themselves back into contention before the August 2 trade deadline.

That makes it all but certain general manager Perry Minasian and his staff will field offers on some shorter-term contracts. They’re unlikely to tear things down and move notable players controllable into 2023, but there’s little reason not to try to deal veterans ticketed for free agency at the end of this season.

Of the Halos six rental players, Noah Syndergaard stands out as by far the most interesting. There will perhaps be modest interest in Matt Duffy, Kurt Suzuki or Jonathan Villar. Archie Bradley is on the 60-day IL and ineligible to return until well after the deadline. The Halos seemed likely to find a taker for Michael Lorenzen, but a trip to the injured list last week seems to diminish those chances. Syndergaard, however, is likely to be a target for contenders looking for short-term rotation help.

The Angels signed the right-hander to a one-year, $21MM guarantee last offseason. The Halos surrendered a draft choice to woo him away from the Mets, hoping he’d solidify a rotation that had dealt repeated hits to the club’s chances of contending in years past. There was an obvious risk in investing in a pitcher who’d made just one big league appearance since 2019 due to March 2020 Tommy John surgery, but the Halos gambled he’d rediscover his pre-injury form.

That hasn’t come to pass, although Syndergaard has been solid overall. He’s avoided the injured list and taken the ball 13 times as part of the Angels six-man rotation. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of those appearances, generally working into the middle innings and keeping the club in games. Syndergaard hasn’t resembled his top-of-the-rotation peak in Queens, but he carries a season-long 3.84 ERA with fielding-independent numbers (4.10 SIERA, 3.83 FIP) that generally align with the run prevention.

Syndergaard entered the majors as one of baseball’s most electrifying arms. For his first few seasons, his fastball sat in the upper-90s and routinely crested triple-digits, earning him the ’Thor’ moniker for his appearance and on-mound presence. In each of his first two years, he punched out nearly 30% of opponents while inducing ground-balls at a quality clip. Paired with consistently low walk totals and an ability to handle hitters from both sides of the plate, he looked like a prototypical ace. Through the end of the 2017 campaign, he carried a sparkling 2.89 career ERA.

After losing much of the 2017 season to a lat tear, however, Syndergaard settled in as more of a high-end mid-rotation starter. His formerly elite swing-and-miss numbers took a slight step back, and he posted a 3.73 ERA between 2018-19. Then came the ill-timed UCL tear that cost him basically all of his final two seasons as a Met and positioned him to take a one-year deal during his first trip through free agency.

While Syndergaard has stayed healthy for his first post-TJS season, he’s lost quite a bit of life on his arsenal. The 29-year-old is averaging around 94 MPH on both his four-seam and sinker — solid velocity, but nowhere near his pre-surgery levels. He’s essentially scrapped the upper-80s cutter-slider he featured in New York for a low-80s slider with a bit more depth. The only of Syndergaard’s offspeed pitches generating strong swing-and-miss rates is his curveball. He’s used that offering so infrequently the huge whiff rate is likely more a reflection of hitters being kept off-balance than an indication that is an overpowering pitch on its own.

Not surprisingly, Syndergaard’s strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers have dropped as his stuff has slowed down. This season’s 18.8% strikeout rate is easily a career-low, as is his 10.9% swinging strike percentage. The league is making a bit more contact this year than it has it recent seasons, but Syndergaard’s strikeout rate is a couple points below the 21.1% average for starting pitchers. His swinging strike number is marginally above the 10.6% league mark.

Rather than overpowering hitters, the seven-year veteran is succeeding on the strength of excellent control and a fairly balanced arsenal. He’s turned to each of his four-seam, sinker, changeup and slider between 20% and 27% of the time. He’s willing to use all of his secondaries against batters from both sides of the plate. Incongruous as it may be with his reputation, Syndergaard now looks the part of a pitchability mid-rotation arm. No single pitch in his 2022 repertoire has been jaw-dropping, but he’s varying his pitch mix and filling up the strike zone to generally keep hitters off the bases. Opponents have a .245/.292/.390 line in 292 plate appearances.

This version of Syndergaard wouldn’t be as impactful an addition as Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas or even Tyler Mahle. There’ll be plenty of contenders that don’t land any of that group, though, and Syndergaard represents a solid fallback option. He’d still be one of the five best starting pitchers on the majority of clubs. It’s unlikely anyone eyes the former All-Star as a Game One playoff starter, but there’s always a market for solid mid-rotation production. Perhaps some teams will be concerned about the extent of the workload he could shoulder coming off two lost seasons, but his impending free agency reduces any long-term injury concerns for a deadline buyer.

While an acquiring club wouldn’t be on the hook for any commitments beyond 2022, Syndergaard would be a fairly expensive add for the stretch run. He’ll be owed a bit more than $7.5MM from deadline day onwards, a tab that could deter lower-budget teams or those already in luxury tax territory. That’s a fair bit of money for clubs to take on midseason, but the Angels could retain some salary to improve their prospect return.

It stands to reason the Halos will be motivated to make a deal, particularly if they’re able to land an upper minors infield or rotation option who could contribute in 2023 when the team takes another shot at contending. It’s unclear precisely how draft pick compensation for free agents might work next offseason — the existence of the qualifying offer is pending the league’s and union’s negotiations on an international draft — but Syndergaard would be ineligible for a QO because he received one from the Mets last year. Were the Angels to keep him all season, they’d likely receive no compensation if he walks in free agency.

Syndergaard won’t be as in-demand a trade target as the controllable starters (Castillo, Montas and Mahle) who figure to dominate headlines over the next three weeks. Yet he’s a strong candidate to change uniforms, and he’d be a more notable acquisition than other rentals like José Quintana and Chad Kuhl for clubs willing to assume some of his remaining salary. He’s no longer the Thor of old, but Syndergaard is still a strong option for teams on the hunt for mid-rotation help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Matt Moore’s Bullpen Rebound

By Steve Adams | July 12, 2022 at 9:30am CDT

To call Matt Moore’s career a roller coaster would be to undersell the peaks and valleys that have proliferated his time in professional baseball. An eighth-round pick by the Rays back in 2007, Moore skyrocketed through the minors (relative to most high school arms), debuting in a September playoff push in 2011. The second start of Moore’s career was a scoreless, seven-inning ALDS gem against the same club for which he now pitches back in that 2011 season. In the 2011-12 offseason, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus ranked Moore as the game’s No. 1 prospect — ahead of a pair of outfield prospects by the name of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Baseball America ranked him second — behind Harper and ahead of Trout.

Early in his career, Moore largely delivered on those lofty prospect rankings. He wasn’t an immediate Cy Young favorite but nevertheless pitched to a 3.53 ERA over the course of his first 347 big league innings. Moore struck out 22.8% of his opponents during that span — a below-average mark in today’s game but well above the league-average of 19.4% from 2011-13. Moore made the All-Star team in 2013, pitched to a 3.29 ERA over 27 starts, and grabbed a few down-ballot Cy Young votes, finishing ninth.

Tommy John surgery early in the 2014 season, however, would wipe out the majority of Moore’s 2014-15 campaigns. He made just two starts in 2014 before hitting the injured list due to ligament damage in his pitching elbow, and Moore was limited to 12 mostly ugly starts upon returning in 2015. His fastball, which averaged 96 mph in his electric rookie showing, averaged 92.7 mph over those dozen appearances.

Moore briefly looked to be back on track in 2016. Traded from Tampa Bay to San Francisco in July, he posted an identical 4.08 ERA with both teams en route to 198 1/3 innings. At the very least, he looked like a league-average starter, but Moore unraveled with the Giants in 2017 (5.52 ERA in 31 starts) and posted an ERA just under 7.00 in 102 innings with the 2018 Rangers. He made just two starts for the 2019 Tigers before sustaining a season-ending knee injury while fielding a ground-ball. Moore parlayed a strong 2020 showing with Japan’s SoftBank Hawks into a big league deal with the Phillies heading into the 2021 season, but he logged a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings last season in Philly.

Unsurprisingly, given that tumultuous run from 2017-21, Moore settled on a minor league deal this past winter — returning for a second stint with the Rangers. So far, it’s proven to be one of the best minor league fliers any team took over the winter.

This marks the first time in Moore’s career that he’s been used exclusively as a reliever, and the results been excellent. He’s sporting a 1.88 ERA with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate, a career-best 54.9% ground-ball rate and a 94.4 mph average fastball velocity that represents his highest level since his pre-Tommy John days in 2012.

Moore is throwing that heater at a career-low 42.3% mark so far in 2022. As we’ve seen so often with pitchers — particularly when they move to short-relief stints — he’s found success by ramping up the usage of his secondary offerings. Moore’s curveball is actually his primary pitch so far in 2022, as he’s thrown the pitch at a 44.3% clip that is far and away the highest of his career. He’s mixing in his changeup (13.5%), giving him a third pitch that helps keep righties at bay. (Just three of his 86 changeups this year have been thrown to lefties.) Gone is the cutter he threw at a 9% clip from 2014-21. The sinker he featured briefly from 2012-16 has also been scrapped. All three of Moore’s current pitches have been positives, per FanGraphs’ run values.

Moore’s Statcast profile is quite favorable, too, lending some further weight to his bullpen breakout. He’s in the 73rd percentile of big league pitchers in terms of whiff rate and the 79th when it comes to inducing chases off the plate. Moore ranks in the 85th percentile or better in fastball spin rate, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and in each of his “expected” ERA, opponents’ batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA. Put more simply: Moore is missing bats, and when he does allow contact, it’s generally weak.

It’s not all roses, of course. There’s no denying that Moore has still yielded far too many free passes in 2022 (13.9% walk rate), and while he’s begun to slightly scale back the rate at which he issues those walks, no one’s going to claim that he has above-average (or even average) command right now. Moore also hasn’t allowed a home run this season. That’s obviously a good thing — but it’s also a trend that no pitcher is likely to sustain over the course of a full season. Even if the bulk of contact against a pitcher is weak, hitters are generally going to barrel up a mistake and make them pay on occasion.

Few relievers check all the boxes though, and generally those that can sustain plus strikeout rates with plus command and ground-ball tendencies while also limiting hard contact and home runs are among the highest-paid pitchers in the game. Those types of relievers are rarely available at the trade deadline. Moore, however, should be available — and he has the strikeout, ground-ball and weak contact tendencies that teams tend to covet, even if they’re accompanied by at-times spotty command.

Beyond the impressive showing in his first foray into full-time relief work, the southpaw is also eminently affordable. Moore’s minor league deal over the winter came with a $2.5MM base salary. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end, so he’s a pure rental, but he’d only cost his new club about $1.17MM through season’s end as of this writing. That number, of course, will continue to tick downward as the Aug. 2 deadline approaches.

The Rangers find themselves within striking distance of the newly created third Wild Card spot in the American League, and their offseason blockbuster signings of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien were a clear indication that they’re aiming for a return to relevance in the AL West. But teams in this era of baseball are rarely strict buyers or sellers at the deadline. It’s certainly possible for the Rangers to continue exploring deals that might net them controllable big leaguers while also shipping short-term assets like Moore to more clear-cut postseason contenders to stockpile a bit more future value.

If Moore can net a decent prospect — and given how he’s pitched, there’s reason to think he should — trading him while still pursuing controllable, MLB-ready help in the outfield and starting rotation would represent a sensible means of toeing the buyer/seller line for a Rangers club that isn’t quite a surefire contender yet.

Should The Orioles Rethink Their Trade Deadline Approach?

By Anthony Franco | July 11, 2022 at 6:30pm CDT

Few teams in baseball are playing as well as the Orioles lately. That’s not what anyone would have imagined entering the season or as recently as a couple weeks ago. As the calendar flipped to July, Baltimore was 35-43 and separated by six teams in the American League Wild Card standings. They were among the handful most clear-cut deadline sellers in the sport. Six Baltimore players were placed among MLBTR’s Top 50 trade candidates last Friday.

Fast forward just a few days, and the O’s have done everything in their power to make the front office think twice about selling. They’ve rattled off successive sweeps of the Rangers and Angels and carry an eight-game win streak. Pair that with a dreadful past week and a half for teams like the Blue Jays and Guardians — who were at or near the top of the Wild Card heap — and Baltimore has closed a stunning amount of ground. They head into play Monday two back of the final AL playoff spot, which is currently shared by the Mariners and Jays. They’ll have a chance to climb back to .500 tomorrow evening against the Cubs.

The Orioles aren’t going to continue winning indefinitely, of course. Their successive sweeps came against two below-average teams, and the Angels in particular have been in an absolute tailspin. Yet their solid play hasn’t been confined just to the past week and a half. They’re 22-14 since the start of June, outscoring opponents by 29 runs (170-141) over that stretch. That’s an arbitrary cutoff, and one can’t dismiss a 7-14 April that buried them in the standings right out of the gate. Yet this has at least been the best stretch of play for the franchise since their rebuild began in 2018, and they’ve gotten themselves into the playoff picture.

Will that be enough to deter the front office from moving some players off the roster for future talent? General manager Mike Elias struck a cautious tone speaking with reporters last week (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). “Everything that I do or that we do has tradeoffs, and all I can say is, we do everything from a very global, a very thoughtful perspective about what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles’ franchise,” Elias said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m saying we’re taking a look at everything as we make these decisions and we’ll see what happens.”

The front office certainly doesn’t seem ready to declare the rebuild over and part with high-end talent to add pieces for the 2022 stretch run. Each of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference has the club’s odds of reaching the playoffs below 10%. Even as they’ve played their way back into the picture, it’s fair to wonder whether the roster — the starting rotation especially — can hold up for another two and a half months. Few would argue the Orioles are a better team than the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays or Red Sox, yet they’ll have to outplay multiple members of that group (and hold off a handful of teams just behind them) to get to the playoffs. Even were they to add some rotation help and/or upgrade on any of Jorge Mateo, Ramón Urías or Rougned Odor around the infield, the O’s would remain postseason longshots.

If Elias and his staff aren’t likely to pivot and aggressively add before the deadline, there’s still room for them to stay the course without selling. By and large, the O’s current core can be kept around beyond this season. Baltimore has just three impending free agents on the roster. Odor and backup catcher Robinson Chirinos aren’t going to attract trade interest anyhow, meaning the only key rental for the O’s to decide upon is Trey Mancini. (His deal technically contains a $10MM mutual option for 2023, but he’s likely to decline that and seek a multi-year free agent deal).

Mancini is having a good season, carrying a .281/.353/.420 line across 331 plate appearances. He’d attract a decent amount of interest as one of the better rental bats available were the Orioles to shop him over the next few weeks. Still, as an impending free agent with defensive limitations, he won’t bring back an eye-popping return. Baltimore almost certainly wouldn’t recoup a prospect generally regarded as a top 100 caliber player in a deal. In all likelihood, they’d land a couple of players most evaluators view as middle-tier prospects from another organization.

A Mancini trade would add talent to an already-deep farm system, but would there be enough appeal to pull the trigger if the Orioles remain within three or four games of a Wild Card spot by the August 2 deadline? In addition to his on-field value, the 30-year-old first baseman is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence. He’s a fan favorite, and his overcoming a 2020 battle with colon cancer makes him one of the sport’s easiest players to support. Dealing Mancini if the Orioles were 10+ games back would’ve been unpopular with some segment of the fanbase; trading him if the team continues playing well and remains on the fringes of contention would be even more so. That’d be equally true in the clubhouse.

Baltimore’s highest-value assets are under a longer window of club control. Outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays can be kept around through 2025. They looked unlikely to change hands no matter how this season’s first half went, and that’s all the more true with the club showing signs of life. Closer Jorge López could be more likely to move given the inherent volatility with relief pitching, but he’s arbitration-eligible through 2024. That’s also true of corner outfielder Anthony Santander, who’d have more modest interest than any of Mullins, Hays or López given his defensive shortcomings and up-and-down career track record at the dish.

Things should get harder for the O’s over the next few weeks. After a two-game set with Chicago, they’ll split their next ten games between the Rays (seven) and Yankees (three). Their final series of July will be in Cincinnati, followed by one pre-deadline matchup with Texas. Drop ten or 11 of those contests, and the O’s probably end up as sellers, at least parting with Mancini. If they can go 8-8 or 9-7 over that stretch, though, Elias and his staff will have to decide on a team hovering around .500 and likely within shouting distance of a playoff spot for the first time in six years.

The front office is certainly going to remain mindful of the long-term outlook. They’re not going to suddenly jump into the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas bidding, although perhaps they could entertain the idea of adding a lower-impact starter with a lengthier window of remaining control. Yet the team has played well enough of late to give themselves a shot to avoid subtractions. Much will depend on how they play over the next three weeks, but the Orioles may not be as motivated to deal as they’d seemed just a few days ago. That’s a credit to their surprisingly strong play over the past month-plus. The team has given themselves a shot to make the front office rethink their deadline outlook, and the next 15 games should be the franchise’s most important in a half-decade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

This Trade Candidate Is Peaking At The Right Time

By Darragh McDonald | July 11, 2022 at 4:52pm CDT

Josh Bell’s first few seasons in the majors were solid, though not elite. From 2016 to 2018, he hit 41 home runs, walked in 12.1% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 17.7% of them. Overall, he produced a batting line of .260/.348/.436, producing a wRC+ of 110, or 10% above league average.

Then came the big breakout. In 2019, Bell hit 37 long balls and produced a slash line of .261/.347/.476 for a wRC+ of 135. His walk and strikeout rates stayed around his customary pace at 12.1% and 19.2%, respectively. He accumulated 2.9 wins above replacement in the estimation of FanGraphs and 2.8 in the eyes of Baseball Reference.

However, he wasn’t able to maintain that tremendous showing. In the shortened 2020 season, a few things went in the wrong direction for Bell. His walk rate dropped a few points to 9.9% and his strikeouts ticked up to 26.5%. He hit just eight homers and hit .226/.305/.364 for a wRC+ of 77, or 23% below league average. Bell’s season was just one of many things that went wrong for the Pirates that year, as they finished 19-41, the worst team in baseball. They decided it was time to empty the roster for a rebuild, trading Bell to the Nationals before also trading away Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon.

The Nationals were surely hoping that 2020 was just a small-sample fluke and that Bell would return to the form he showed in 2019. At first, it may have appeared that they made a miscalculation. At the end of April last year, Bell was hitting just .113/.200/.264. As the size of the slump started to grow, it was fair to wonder if 2019 was the fluke, perhaps a product of the “juiced balls” that year.

However, once the calendar flipped, Bell also flipped and hasn’t looked back since. From May onwards last year, he hit 25 homers, walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 16.5% of them. Overall, he slashed .279/.364/.501 for a wRC+ of 129. This year, he’s not only carried that over but has even found a new gear. Through 87 games, he has a 10.9% walk rate, 13.6% strikeout rate and is hitting .304/.386/.491. His wRC+ of 143 indicates he’s been 43% better than the league average hitter, a number which places him 22nd among qualified hitters across the league, sandwiched between J.D. Martinez and Jose Abreu. He’s produced 2.2 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR already, with almost three months still left to play.

And it’s not just at the plate where Bell is showing positive strides. An outfielder as a prospect, Bell was never really considered an excellent fielder, though he did have a good arm for right field. He transitioned to first base once he reached the upper levels of the minors and was still adjusting to the position as he reached the majors. Defensive Runs Saved gave him -6 at first base in 2016, Bell’s first season, wherein he only played the position in 23 games. In 2017, his first full campaign, he came in at -5 DRS, followed by -8, -6 and a -1 in the shortened season. Last year, he was able to keep himself to a -1 over a full season and in positive territory this year, with 3 DRS so far. Outs Above Average generally agrees with Bell’s defensive progress, having given Bell a negative number each year until a +4 last year and +1 so far this year.

The Nats started a roster overhaul last year, trading away most of their marquee players. They held onto Bell at last year’s deadline and through the offseason, a decision which might pay off handsomely, given that Bell seems to just continue growing as a player. The teardown has unsurprisingly guided them to the National League basement with a record of 30-58, with only the A’s keeping them from being last in all the majors. With no return to competition in sight and Bell just a few months from free agency, he is their best trade chip going into the August 2 deadline. (Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has emphatically stated that Juan Soto will not be traded.)

Bell is almost exclusively a first baseman at this point his career, having played just 26 games in the outfield, 16 of which came way back in his 2016 debut. That limits the number of teams who could acquire him theoretically, but with the universal DH implemented this year, it’s hard to think of a team that couldn’t fit Bell’s bat into their lineup somehow. He’s also a switch-hitter without drastic platoon splits, making him appealing to clubs regardless of which side of the plate they’re looking to improve. For his career, he’s got a 123 wRC+ as a lefty and a 105 as a righty. This year, it’s 147 and 136, respectively.

The Mets are known to be looking for a DH, giving consideration to Bell and his teammate Nelson Cruz. The Red Sox aren’t getting much from their Franchy Cordero and Bobby Dalbec platoon. They also make sense as a team interested in a rental with prospect Triston Casas currently injured but likely to be in the mix next year. With Josh Naylor dealing with a nagging injury, the Guardians have been using a lot of Owen Miller and Franmil Reyes, neither of whom are really standing in Bell’s way. The Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first but don’t really have a regular DH, using it on a rotating basis to players throughout the lineup. The Brewers need some extra thump in their lineup and have been rotating their outfielders through the DH slot. Even if you think of a team where Bell doesn’t fit, a sudden injury can create an opening, such as the Astros suddenly having both Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley on the IL.

Financially, Bell is playing out this season with a $10MM salary. Since we’re past the halfway point of the season, there’s less than $5MM to be paid out. That’s not a number that should scare away many teams, and even if it does, there’s no reason the Nats can’t eat most of that money in order to get a greater prospect package in return. Their roster teardown has resulted in a much lower payroll than recent seasons, giving them plenty of financial flexibility.

MLBTR recently released a list of the top 50 trade candidates, with Bell coming in at #3. Given his excellent year from both sides of the plate, his improvements in the field, his modest salary and his basement-dwelling team, everything is lined up for a headline-grabbing trade in the coming weeks. The Nats will surely net themselves some interesting young players to help them rebuild in the years to come, the acquiring team will get themselves an excellent bat to plug into their lineup for the stretch run, and Bell will potentially get a chance to play in the postseason for the first time in his career before heading into free agency as a 30-year-old, at the top of his game.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2022 Top 50 Trade Candidates

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | July 8, 2022 at 10:35pm CDT

We’re less than a month from the August 2 trade deadline, and the outlook for a good portion of the league has rounded into focus. MLBTR has compiled its initial list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates, a list that’ll be updated at least once as July nears its end.

As always, this list is loosely ordered in terms of both likelihood of being traded and value to an acquiring club. Rental players are inherently going to carry less long-term value but are generally likelier to be moved by virtue of their impending free agency. Some controllable stars at the back of the list would be marquee acquisitions if made available, but they’re far less likely to change teams than anyone in the top 15. There’s an inherent subjectivity in striking that balance, of course.

It’s worth pointing out that while many teams can be clearly bucketed into “buyer” or “seller” already, some club’s directions remain subject to how they play over the next few weeks. At the start of last July, teams like the Nationals and Cubs were close enough to contention they weren’t obvious sellers. After a month of poor play, both teams moved plenty of high-profile players.

The Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Angels, and Rangers are among those who find themselves in that middle ground as of today. San Francisco, as an example, has slumped of late and enters play Friday just a game above .500. They’re nevertheless only two out in the Wild Card standings and are coming off a 107-win season, so it’s likely the front office will try to give this core an opportunity to iron things out. Should they continue to scuffle over the next three weeks, they may be more defined sellers. Seattle, Miami, the Angels and Texas could all find themselves in position to deal away impending free agents while holding onto or perhaps even adding controllable players to help them compete in 2023 and beyond.

Onto the list (with all stats not including tonight’s action):

1. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs:

Long one of the game’s top catchers, Contreras has elevated his offensive output to new heights so far in 2022. Sporting career-bests in walk rate (11.3%), strikeout rate (20.7%) and hard-hit rate (50.8%), Contreras is slashing a robust .274/.392/.498 with 13 home runs, 17 doubles and a triple. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 50% better than a league-average hitter and one of the 15 best qualified hitters in all of MLB. Contreras hasn’t been considered an elite defensive catcher in his career, and his defensive ratings so far in 2022 are down from their typically closer-to-average standards. He’s at -5 Defensive Runs Saved with a 23% caught-stealing rate (just below the 25% average) and sub-par framing marks.

Contreras himself has voiced a desire to remain in Chicago, but the Cubs have explored extension parameters in the past with no deal coming to fruition. Now this close to the open market, Contreras feels all but certain to change teams between now and Aug. 2, which will formally turn the page on the 2016 championship core. Trades of frontline catchers during a season are rare — learning a new pitching staff on the fly, midseason, is no small task — so the Contreras trade doesn’t have much recent precedent.

Contractual details: $9.6MM salary, free agent at season’s end

2. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Royals:

The Royals, buried at 20 games under .500 in a relatively weak division, have been working to move past their rebuild for two years. Benintendi’s very presence on the roster is proof of that, as he was one of several win-now moves made by the Kansas City front office in recent years. The big-picture goal hasn’t worked out, but Benintendi’s acquisition has been generally successful. The former first-rounder and top prospect plateaued with the Red Sox in 2019 and cratered in 2020, but he had a solid 2021 season and is in the midst of an excellent campaign at the plate. In 336 plate appearances, Benintendi is hitting .316/.387/.404 — about 29% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His .363 average on balls in play screams for some regression, but a career-low 13.7% strikeout rate and resurgent 10.4% walk rate are both positives in his favor.

While Benintendi is best-suited for left field work, he can handle center field if needed. His left-handed bat would be a welcome addition to several contenders (e.g. Blue Jays, Yankees), and the Royals are slam-dunk sellers who’ve already shipped out one veteran (Carlos Santana). Expect Benintendi to be one of several others they move.

Contractual details: $8.5MM salary, free agent at season’s end

3. Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Nationals:

A longtime top prospect whose projected power didn’t really manifest in his first few big league seasons, Bell enjoyed what looked to be a breakout with the Pirates in 2019 when he belted 37 long balls and at last tapped into that home-run pop. Looking more closely at that season, however, Bell limped to the finish with a poor second half, and a terrible 2020 showing led to questions about whether his first-half surge with Pittsburgh in 2019 was a mirage during the juiced-ball season.

That looked like it might be the case when Bell stumbled out of the gates in 2021 following an offseason trade to the Nats, but he absolutely mashed from May onward and hasn’t stopped so far in 2022. Bell is hitting .311/.393/.502 this season. Dating back to May 1 of the previous year, the switch-hitter has a .292/.376/.501 slash in 856 plate appearances. He’s ripped 37 homers, 39 doubles and three triples in that time. Bell has walked at an 11.4% clip in that time, fanned at just a 15.2% pace and has hit well from both sides of the plate. Even though the playoffs were out of the question for the Nats before the season even began, the decision not to trade Bell in the offseason could be prudent, as he might have further raised his stock in the first three months of play.

Contractual details: $10MM salary, free agent at season’s end

4. Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds:

With several of the other obvious rotation trade candidates –including Castillo’s own teammate — suddenly dealing with health issues, Castillo increasingly looks like the crown jewel of not just the starting pitching market but perhaps the entire trade market. He was slowed in Spring Training by a shoulder issue and missed the first month of the season while effectively going through a Spring Training-esque buildup, but Castillo has returned looking like his typically excellent self. Through 11 starts, he’s sitting on a 3.09 ERA (3.23 FIP, 3.67 SIERA) with a 24.7% strikeout rate, an 8.2% walk rate and a 48.3% ground-ball rate. His fastball velocity and strikeout rate were down a bit early in the year as he finished building up at the MLB level, but since May 31, Castillo is averaging 97.2 mph on his heater with a 26.2% strikeout rate.

Dating back to Opening Day 2019, Castillo has a 3.55 ERA in 512 1/3 innings and is averaging just shy of six innings per start. He throws hard, misses bats, issues walks at an average rate and possesses well above-average ground-ball tendencies. This is a playoff-caliber starter who’d be an immediate upgrade to any rotation in Major League Baseball. The Reds have balked at trading him in the past, but the demand this time around could be so great that they can’t resist. Castillo’s trade value is at its apex, and that coalesces with an arbitration salary that’ll soar past $10MM for a Reds team that has been working to cut payroll since 2020.

Contractual details: $7.35MM salary, arb-eligible through 2023 season

5. Frankie Montas, RHP, Athletics:

Up until this week, a spirited debate could be had about whether Castillo or Montas was the true prize of the starting pitching market. Some may still prefer Montas on talent alone, but he’s missing his next start due to shoulder inflammation that required a cortisone injection. The A’s haven’t placed him on the injured list yet, and it’s still possible that he could bounce back from the cortisone shot, pitch well for his next five or so starts and render this shoulder issue a mere blip on the radar. Time will tell, but the current ailment has at least clouded Montas’ outlook a bit.

Given how the rest of their offseason went, it was a surprise that the A’s didn’t trade Montas on the heels of an outstanding 2021 season in which he pitched to a 3.37 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 42.8% grounder rate in 187 innings. He’s been as good — arguably better — so far in 2022. Montas has an 80-game PED suspension as a black mark on his track record, but that was back in 2019 and he’s been outstanding since without ever failing a test. Since 2019, he has 497 2/3 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with comparable velocity and strikeout/walk rates to those of Castillo. If Montas is healthy, expect him to be moved. The cost-cutting A’s aren’t going to extend him and won’t get as much for one season of him in an offseason trade as they would for one-and-a-half seasons prior to the deadline.

Contractual details: $5MM salary, arb-eligible through 2023 season

6. Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds:

Like Castillo and Montas, Mahle is controlled cheaply for another season and a half. Unlike them, he got out to a dismal start to the 2022 season, yielding 20 earned runs through his first 25 2/3 innings. Since May 8, Mahle has mirrored his quietly strong 2020-21 form, however, notching a 3.51 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in his past 11 starts. He still has a ways to go to bring his season ERA back to expected levels — he’s currently at 4.48 — but Mahle owns a 3.94 ERA with impressive strikeout rates and only slightly below-average command through 320 innings since Opening Day 2020.

It’s not an extensive track record, but today’s front offices will care far more about what they project Mahle to do through the end of the 2023 season than about what he did earlier in his career. And while this is a pretty rudimentary split, it’s still noteworthy that Mahle has a 4.90 ERA and 1.71 HR/9 at home over the past three seasons, compared to a 2.93 ERA and 0.52 HR/9 on the road away from his bandbox of a home park.

Unfortunately for Mahle and the Reds, he landed on the injured list this week due to what’s being characterized as a minor shoulder strain. He’s the only injured player included on this list, and that’s because Mahle has already said he’ll return right after the All-Star break. That will give him multiple starts to prove his shoulder’s health, and if he can do so, Mahle could find himself packing up his locker just like his teammate, Castillo.

Contractual details: $5.2MM salary, arb-eligible through 2023 season

7. Jose Quintana, LHP, Pirates:

An unsurprisingly popular name in early trade chatter, the 33-year-old Quintana looks an awful lot like the 26-year-old version of himself in what’s proving to be a renaissance season. The former White Sox/Cubs hurler has pitched 81 innings of 3.33 ERA ball with above-average command, solid ground-ball tendencies and an only slightly below-average strikeout rate. Quintana is averaging just over five innings per start, but there are plenty of pitching-hungry contenders who’d love to bank on five to six solid innings every fifth day, rather than wondering which depth arm they’ll bring up from Triple-A or how they’ll navigate yet another bullpen game.

The Pirates signed Quintana with just this in mind, and his $2MM salary is affordable for any team that wants him. The lefty’s 2020-21 seasons were forgettable, to put thing things nicely, but this is as good as Quintana has looked since 2016.

Contractual details: $2MM salary, free agent at season’s end

8. David Robertson, RHP, Cubs:

Virtually every contender in baseball will be looking to upgrade its bullpen, and it’s hard to imagine there’s a single such club that wouldn’t want to bring Robertson into the fold. The injury bug finally caught up with the previously ultra-durable Robertson in 2019 after he signed a two-year deal with the Phillies. Robertson made 60 or more appearances and pitched at least 60 innings in each of the nine prior seasons, but forearm and elbow troubles eventually led to Tommy John surgery. Last year’s return — first in the Olympics with Team USA and then with the Rays — was solid but unexciting.

The Cubs took a one-year flier on Robertson and have to be thrilled to have done so. The average 93.5 mph velocity on Robertson’s cutter is the highest it’s been since 2011, and he’s saved a dozen games while pitching to a 1.89 ERA through 33 1/3 innings. Robertson’s 11.1% walk rate is too high, but he’s fanned a third of his opponents this season and is sporting a 50.7% ground-ball rate — second-best of his lengthy career. He’s been lights-out this season, and Robertson has more experience in postseason play and high-pressure situations than pretty much any reliever on the market.

Contractual details: $3.5MM salary (plus another $750K of incentives remaining to be unlocked), free agent at season’s end

9. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers:

Very arguably the 1b to Robertson’s 1a among this summer’s class of bullpen rentals, Fulmer is in his first full season as a reliever and has dominated in his new role. The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year’s career has been repeatedly set back by injuries, including Tommy John surgery and an ulnar nerve transposition procedure, but he’s been healthy and brilliant in 2022. Through 31 innings, Fulmer carries a 2.03 ERA with a 25% walk rate against an admittedly bloated 12.1% walk rate. He’s slowly improved his walk rate over the course of the season after a shaky start, though, just as he’s seen his velocity continue to increase (93.6 mph average through May 25; 94.6 mph since).

Fulmer, somewhat remarkably, has given up just one “barreled” ball this season (as defined by Statcast), and he’s in the 87th percentile or better in each of Statcast’s hard-hit rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected ERA and expected wOBA. He’s been operating as a setup man to Gregory Soto this season but would be a closing option on several contenders.

Contractual details: $4.95MM salary, free agent at season’s end

10. Andrew Chafin, LHP, Tigers:

When the Tigers signed Chafin to a two-year contract this winter — the second season of which is a player option — it was with the intent of building a strong bullpen for a hopefully competitive club. With an entire rotation on the injured list and unexpected struggles at the plate from several key members of the lineup, however, Detroit has only narrowly managed to avoid the AL Central cellar. Chafin’s performance surely isn’t to blame.

Though he missed three weeks with a groin strain back in April, Chafin has been outstanding out of AJ Hinch’s bullpen. In 24 2/3 innings, he has a 2.55 ERA with a career-best 30.6% strikeout rate against a better-than-average 7.1% walk rate. His 53.4% ground-ball rate is his best since 2017. He’s been every bit as good against righties as he has against lefties. The player option effectively makes Chafin a rental, because unless he gets injured, he’s going to decline that guaranteed year and return to the market in search of another multi-year deal — which he should absolutely find. For now, he’s the best lefty reliever on the trade market (again).

Contractual details: $5.5MM salary, $6.5MM player option for 2023

11. Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles:

Mancini’s return from Stage 3 colon cancer was a feel-good story of triumph that resonated not just with O’s fans but with all baseball fans. And while the slugger had a bit of a pedestrian showing in last year’s return from that life-threatening diagnosis, he’s in better form this year, hitting .288/.355/.426. The power isn’t what was in 2019 (hey there, juiced ball!), but Mancini is a well above-average hitter whose right-handed bat would boost any lineup, be it at first base, designated hitter or in the outfield corners. (Defensively, he’s best-suited for first base.)

The Orioles are going to take a PR hit when they trade him, and the move won’t be well-received in the clubhouse. But Baltimore has shown no willingness to spend any long-term money during the rebuild, and Mancini is a free agent in a few months. (Technically, he has a mutual option, but those are almost never exercised by both parties.) The return will probably underwhelm fans, as we’re talking about a rental of a defensively-limited player, but the O’s should still get a bit of help for the farm system whenever they find a trade partner.

Contractual details: $7.5MM salary, $10MM mutual option ($250K buyout) for 2023

12. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers:

Just as everyone predicted, Perez ranks second among American League pitchers in wins above replacement as the All-Star break draws nea– wait, what?

Perez’s second stint with the Rangers has been a revelation. He’s boasting career-bests in strikeout rate (19.8%, still below the league average) and walk rate (6.1%, well better than average). His 52.6% grounder rate is his best since 2016. Perez is wildly unlikely to keep suppressing homers at this rate — in the past decade, there are only four instances of a starter (min. 100 innings) with a lower HR/FB than his current 4.4% — but Perez nevertheless looks better than ever. There’s been speculation that Texas could try to extend him.

Contractual details: $4MM salary, free agent at season’s end

13. Brandon Drury, INF/OF, Reds:

Drury might go down as the best minor league signing of the season. The journeyman infielder/outfielder has been Cincinnati’s best hitter, slashing .270/.331/.524 with 17 long balls — already a career-high — through 293 plate appearances. He’s played all four infield positions this year (albeit just four innings at shortstop) and has plenty of prior experience in the outfield corners. Drury is barreling more balls than ever, isn’t benefiting from a fluky BABIP and is walking at what would be a full-season career-high of 7.2% (admittedly, still below average). The power isn’t only a product of Great American Ball Park, either; he’s homered nine times at home and eight on the road. What contender couldn’t use a bat like this — be it as a starter or a heavily used utilityman?

Contractual details: $900K salary, free agent at season’s end

14. Matt Moore, LHP, Rangers:

The former top prospect in baseball hasn’t had the career anyone envisioned for him at the time, but Moore has found a home in the Texas bullpen. After floundering for several seasons as a starter following Tommy John surgery, he’s embraced a full-time relief role with a 1.98 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 52.9% grounder rate in 36 1/3 frames. He’s walking way too many hitters (13.8%), but he’s had better command over the past month or so.

Contractual details: $2.5MM salary, free agent at season’s end

15. Mychal Givens, RHP, Cubs:

The Cubs may not be good overall, but their short-term veterans will hold plenty of appeal to other teams — and Givens is no exception. The 32-year-old is doing what he does every year… which is to say he’s posting a strong ERA (3.24) with plenty of strikeouts (29.2%) and far too many walks (11.1%). Givens’ average fastball has dipped from 95 mph in 2021 to 93.8 mph in 2022, which could be a slight concern, but he’s pitching to his track record. A cheap, experienced setup man ought to land with a contender before too long, once the Cubs begin shopping their trade chips in earnest.

Contractual details: $3.5MM salary, 2023 mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)

16. David Peralta, OF, D-backs:

Speaking of track records, Peralta has bounced back from the lone below-average season of his career at the plate (2021) to post a .250/.318/.470 line with 11 homers in 258 plate appearances this season. The left-handed-hitting Peralta has huge platoon splits throughout his career, and that’s again the case in 2022 (.121/.256/.212 in 39 PAs against lefties). On the flipside, Peralta hits right-handers quite well and ranks as a solid defender in either outfield corner. The D-backs seem willing to trade some outfielders, and there’s a wave of young talent breathing down Peralta’s neck.

Contractual details: $7.5MM salary, free agent at season’s end

17. Chad Kuhl, RHP, Rockies:

The signing of Kuhl couldn’t have gone much better for the Rockies so far, as the longtime Pirates righty has pitched to a 3.83 ERA in 82 1/3 frames. That’s already the second-highest innings total of the oft-injured Kuhl’s career, though, and his typically unexciting K-BB% is once again rather lackluster (16.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate). That said, this is Kuhl’s lowest walk rate since his rookie effort in 2016, and the righty is also limiting homers at the best rate of his career. Were it not for the Rockies’ history of bizarre deadline decisions, Kuhl would probably rank higher. However, the Rockies regularly delude themselves into thinking they’re a couple breaks from contending and have regularly eschewed trading productive veterans even in otherwise lost seasons (see: Jon Gray and Trevor Story just last year). The Rox might just hold onto Kuhl, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they looked into an extension.

Contractual details: $3MM salary, free agent at season’s end

18. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Orioles:

Lyles surprisingly received the largest contract given out by the Orioles under GM Mike Elias, although the fact that said contract contained just a $7MM guarantee speaks to the aggressive nature of Baltimore’s tanking during the current rebuild. Lyles was signed to eat innings and has done that capably, pitching 92 frames with a 4.70 ERA. His ability to soak up those innings might be more valuable to the Orioles than to a contending club, but Lyles has been moved at the deadline multiple times in the past.

Contractual details: $5.5MM salary, $11MM club option for 2023 ($1MM buyout)

19. Miguel Andujar, INF/OF, Yankees:

Andujar, the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2018, missed nearly all of 2019 due to shoulder surgery and has been an afterthought in the Yankees organization since. He keeps hitting in Triple-A — .316/.362/.485 in 185 PAs this year — and the Yankees keep finding reasons to keep him in Scranton. Andujar has diversified his defensive skill set, spending time in left field and at first base, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll get a real chance with the Yankees anytime soon. He reportedly asked for a trade following a recent demotion.

Contractual details: $1.3MM salary, arb-eligible through at least 2024 (possibly 2025, depending on how much time he spends in Triple-A)

20. Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Mets:

Smith was one of the NL’s best hitters in 2019-20 when he slashed .299/.366/.571 with 21 homers in 396 PAs. He cratered in 2021 with a .244/.304/.363 showing, though Smith revealed this spring that he played through a small tear in his shoulder last year. The 27-year-old was the odd man out following a busy offseason of acquisitions, remaining on the roster despite no real path to even semi-regular at-bats. He received 101 PAs in just under two months, hit .186/.287/.256 in that time, and was optioned to Triple-A in late May. Smith hit .266/.347/.438 in 15 games with Syracuse and is hitting .333/.333/.556 in 27 PAs since being recalled. The logjam still exists, and upon being asked in the past, Smith has candidly said he’d prefer to play everyday, even if it meant a trade.

Contractual status: $3.95MM salary, arb-eligible through 2024

21. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Angels:

Although the 29-year-old Syndergaard hasn’t at all resembled the flamethrowing strikeout machine was early in his career — this year’s average fastball velocity of 94.6 mph is down a whopping five miles from its 99.6 mph peak in 2017 — he’s still been a solid member of the Anaheim rotation. Through 13 starts, “Thor” has logged 70 1/3 innings of 3.84 ERA ball with a career-low 18.8% strikeout rate but a 5.5% walk rate that is in line with his outstanding career levels. The salary is rather steep for this version of Syndergaard, but if the Angels can’t turn things around, he could still help a contender’s rotation — and the Angels could enhance their return by covering some of the bill.

Contractual status: $21MM salary, free agent at season’s end

22: Daniel Bard, RHP, Rockies:

Three years into one of the most improbable comebacks in recent memory, the 37-year-old Bard looks better than he has since 2010. Rather incredibly averaging a career-high 98.3 mph on his heater, Bard has punched out 29.5% of his opponents and saved 16 games while notching a 2.35 ERA through 30 2/3 innings. His 12.4% walk rate is far too high, but Bard is also sporting a career-best 55.6% grounder rate, helping him to both mitigate some damage from those free passes and keep the ball in the yard. Even with some regression to be expected — Bard’s .229 BABIP and 82.3% left-on-base rate are both unlikely to be sustained — he still looks like a solid late-inning power arm.

Contractual status: $4.4MM salary, free agent at season’s end

23. Ian Happ, OF, Cubs:

A career that has been punctuated by inconsistency and lofty strikeout totals has begun to take a turn for the better. Happ has always been productive at the plate even in spite of penchant for punchouts, thanks largely to well above-average power and high walk rates. In 2022, however, he’s begun to move away from the three-true-outcome mold, lowering his strikeout rate to a 20.7% mark that sits nearly nine percentage points shy of last year’s 29.2% mark (and even further below the 30.8% rate he took into the 2022 season). Happ is still hitting for some power (eight homers, .175 ISO), and his .279/.377/.454 batting line is 31% better than league average, per wRC+.

A switch-hitter, Happ has been far better from the left side of the plate but is above-average even from his “weaker” side. He can play an above-average left field, handle center or second base if needed, and is batting .282/.371/.506 dating back to Aug. 1, 2021 (552 PAs). The Cubs don’t need to trade Happ, but his value is at its peak.

Contractual status: $6.85MM salary, arb-eligible through 2023

24. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals:

Merrifield’s name has been in trade rumors forever, and while GM-turned-president-of-baseball-ops Dayton Moore has expressly stated in the past that Merrifield is off limits, Kansas City is reportedly more open to a deal in 2022 than at any point in the past. Of course, Merrifield’s peak value looks to have passed. While he’s controlled into next season, the two-time AL hits leader and three-time AL stolen base leader is hitting just .236/.288/.322 in 365 PAs this season. Merrifield’s track record is exceptional, but this is the worst season of his career thus far. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, strikeout rate and walk rate are still in line with his halcyon days, but Merrifield is hitting fewer line drives and more harmless flies than ever before.

Contractual details: $7MM salary, $2.75MM in 2023 (plus $4MM of bonuses/escalators), $18MM mutual option for 2024 ($500K buyout)

25. Nelson Cruz, DH, Nationals:

Cruz has been the gold standard for designated hitters for upwards of a decade, but the 41-year-old slugger is finally showing his age a bit in 2022. He’s posted a .288/.364/.445 slash in 215 plate appearances since a miserable start to the season, but Cruz’s overall .239/.321/.365 is noticeably below average. He’s still hitting the snot out of the ball, evidenced by a 90.9 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate, but way too many of those well-struck balls are on the ground; Cruz’s 50.5% ground-ball rate is far and away the worst of his career. If he can get back to elevating the ball, his bat could be a game-changer, but that’s an expensive gamble.

Contractual details: $12MM salary, $16MM mutual option ($3MM buyout)

26. Steve Cishek, RHP, Nationals:

At 36 years of age, the veteran sidearmer isn’t going to wow teams with his upside. That said, Cishek has long been a dependable middle reliever or setup man who can miss bats and overwhelm righty opponents (career .210/.280/.306 batting line). He’s affordable for any team, and this year’s 24.2% strikeout rate is his best since 2018. Cishek’s 4.60 ERA isn’t pretty, but if his uncharacteristic 16.1% homer-to-flyball ratio regresses toward his career levels (8%), he’s a solid bullpen arm.

Contractual details: $1.75MM salary, free agent at season’s end

27. Alex Colome, RHP, Rockies:

The 33-year-old’s strikeout rate (15.7%) is at an all-time low, but his 53.9% grounder rate is a career-high. Colome was never going to repeat the 2.27 ERA he notched in two seasons with the ChiSox, when his BABIP was a minuscule .211. That said, he throws fairly hard, keeps the ball on the ground and issues walks at a below-average clip. He’s miscast as a high-leverage reliever, but Colome is a decent middle-relief arm.

Contractual details: $4.15MM salary, free agent at season’s end

28. Tyler Naquin, OF, Reds:

A former first-rounder who never developed as the organization hoped in Cleveland, Naquin was non-tendered and signed with the cross-state Reds, only to enjoy some of his finest big league work to date. He can’t hit lefties at all, but Naquin’s lefty bat has produced a .281/.341/.511 batting line against lefties since Opening Day 2021. He’s a fine corner outfielder who can handle center in a pinch, and teams looking for lefty sticks in the outfield should be intrigued by Naquin’s platoon production.

Contractual details: $4.025MM salary, free agent at season’s end

29. Tommy Pham OF, Reds:

Pham started the season 1-for-26 — such a brutal funk that the most common question asked in weekly chats for a couple weeks was, “When will the Reds release Tommy Pham?” In 275 plate appearances since, Pham is hitting .271/.353/.450 with 11 homers and 10 doubles. Not only is Pham not getting cut — he could net the Reds a prospect from a team needing corner outfield help.

Contractual details: $6MM salary, $6MM mutual option for 2023 ($1.5MM buyout)

30. Donovan Solano, INF, Reds:

Let the run of Reds rentals continue! The 34-year-old Solano has barely played this season, but he hit .308/.354/.435 in 775 plate appearances with the Giants from 2019-21. The trade market is perilously thin on infield options, and “Donnie Barrels” gives infield-needy teams a veteran hitter who’s had something of a breakout at the dish since Opening Day 2019.

Contractual details: $4.5MM salary, free agent at season’s end

31. Ramon Laureano, OF, Athletics:

There aren’t many center fielders who could hit the trade market, but Laureano is an exception. With the A’s tearing down and rebuilding at a time when Laureano’s salary is climbing in arbitration, he’s an intriguing, controllable option who provides value both at the plate and with the glove. Laureano does have a recent PED suspension on his track record, which may give teams some pause. Then again, he’s hitting .246/.341/.406 (122 wRC+) with six homers and eight steals since returning earlier this year. An added wrinkle to that PED suspension is that Laureano missed enough time that he won’t be able to accrue the service time he needs to cross from three to four years in 2022. In other words, it pushed his free agency back by a full year, meaning Laureano is still controllable for three years after the current season. As such, the price will be steep — but a career .261/.336/.457 hitter in center would fit a lot of clubs nicely.

Contractual details: $2MM salary, arb-eligible through 2025

32. Jorge Lopez, RHP, Orioles:

MLBTR wrote about Lopez at length last week, and he subsequently had three poor outings (sorry, Jorge!). That’s unlikely to tarnish his trade value much, though, as Lopez is still brandishing a scintillating sinker and dominant curveball that have led to a plus strikeout rate and elite ground-ball rate as he’s emerged as Baltimore’s closer. The former second-round pick and top prospect is finally tapping into that potential, and his post-hype Baltimore breakout could give GM Mike Elias one of the most coveted bullpen arms on the market.

Contractual details: $1.5MM salary, arb-eligible through 2024

33. Joe Mantiply, LHP, D-backs:

Thrice drafted as an amateur — never higher than the 27th round — Mantiply bounced around the league on a series of waiver claims and minor league deals before eventually landing in Arizona and establishing himself as a quality reliever. He’s pitched 72 2/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball dating back to 2021, and he’s currently boasting a ludicrous 34-to-1 K/BB ratio so far in the 2022 season. Mantiply doesn’t throw hard, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has some of the best command you’ll find in a reliever. He’s a late bloomer at 31 years of age, and with four seasons of control remaining beyond the current campaign, the Snakes don’t need to move him. There aren’t many lefties on the market though, and there’s a “found money” element to catching lightning in a bottle like this that might tempt GM Mike Hazen.

Contractual details: Pre-arbitration, controllable through 2026

34. Joe Jimenez, RHP, Tigers:

Long regarded a possible closer-in-waiting, Jimenez has had an inconsistent career arc in Detroit. He’s always thrown hard and missed bats, but issues with walks and home runs often led to ugly ERA totals. He’s gotten things under control this season, however, posting a career-best 3.16 ERA through 31 1/3 innings. Jimenez has struck out 32% of opponents, has a personal-low walk rate (5.6%) and he’s affordable enough to appeal to virtually any contender. With an additional season of control beyond this year, the Tigers don’t have to make a move on Jimenez. His trade value will never be higher than it is this summer, and his career volatility could lead GM Al Avila and his staff to seize the opportunity.

Contractual details: $1.79MM salary, arb-eligible through 2023

35. Lou Trivino, RHP, Athletics:

Many fans will look at Trivino’s ghastly 6.94 ERA this season and rule him out as a viable trade candidate. It’s certainly an eyesore, and the A’s would probably recoup less for him this summer than they could’ve last offseason as a result. There’s enough promising in his underlying numbers that some clubs would still take a shot on his rounding into form.

Trivino has a career-best 29.7% strikeout rate. He’s inducing grounders and whiffs at slightly above-average clips. Trivino has given up plenty of hard contact this season, but he’ll certainly not continue to watch nearly half the balls in play against him drop for hits. He has a generally solid track record, particularly against right-handed batters. He’s worked in late-game situations for the past few years, including a run as Oakland’s closer. The A’s certainly aren’t going to take him off the table given their competitive window. There’s a good chance he still goes this summer, ugly ERA notwithstanding.

Contractual details: $3MM salary, arb-eligible through 2024

36. Anthony Bass, RHP, Marlins:

Bass isn’t the most exciting reliever around, but he’s been a generally effective middle innings arm over more than a decade in the big leagues. He’s a reliable strike-thrower and has had a capable two-year run in Miami. He’s given the Marlins 33 2/3 innings of 1.60 ERA ball this season, and while he’s unlikely to continue pitching at that level, he’d be a well-rounded veteran bullpen presence. Miami’s recent solid run has pulled them back to within four games of a Wild Card spot, but short-term veterans like Bass could come available if the club scuffles over the next few weeks.

Contractual details: $3MM salary, $3MM club option for 2023

37. Blake Snell, LHP, Padres:

The Padres would only move Snell as a means of creatively freeing some payroll room for additions elsewhere on the roster. They’re right up against the base luxury tax threshold and loath to exceed it, but they’re expected to gauge the market for outfield help. Moving Snell, who’s playing on a $13.1MM salary but has a more meaningful $10MM CBT hit for the Friars, could clear some breathing space to take on salary in a subsequent trade.

Snell won’t have huge surplus value after an up-and-down year and a half in San Diego. He struggled mightily early in his Padres tenure, then looked the ace the club believed they were acquiring in the second half. After starting this season on the injured list, he’s had erratic control and posted an ERA above 5.00, but few starting pitchers throw as hard or miss as many bats. There could be a buy-low opportunity for another team if the Padres are comfortable enough with their rotation depth to part with Snell.

Contractual details: $13.1MM salary, under contract for $16.6MM in 2023

38. Mike Clevinger, RHP, Padres:

If the Padres are reluctant to part with Snell, who’s under contract for next season, they could view Clevinger as an alternative. He’s one of four potential impending free agents in the rotation. Making just $8MM with a $5.75MM CBT hit this season, Clevinger wouldn’t clear as much room against the tax. Yet that affordability should also make it easier to find a taker for him than it’d be to move Snell, and San Diego has plenty of starting pitching for the stretch run. Clevinger missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he’s returned with a 3.34 ERA and slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers through his first nine starts of the year.

Contractual details: $8MM salary, free agent at season’s end

39. Joey Gallo, OF, Yankees:

One of the Yankees’ big ticket acquisitions last summer, Gallo’s 12 months in the Bronx has been a disappointment. He has a .162/.294/.369 line in 462 plate appearances since the trade, striking out in just under 40% of his trips. He’s a quality defensive corner outfielder and baserunner, and his huge power potential allows him to carry a lineup when he’s on. All that said, there’s no sugarcoating how lost he’s looked at the plate for virtually the entirety of his time in pinstripes.

The Yankees would certainly be selling low were they to move Gallo at the deadline. They won’t fetch a strong prospect return, and moving him for little more than salary relief would smart after they sent five prospects to land him last summer. He’s not performed anywhere near the level the club had envisioned, though, and they’ve already begun to explore the market for possible outfield upgrades. It may just be time for a change of scenery.

Contractual details: $10.275MM salary, free agent at season’s end

40. Michael A. Taylor, OF, Royals:

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently covered Taylor’s trade candidacy at length. A Gold Glove caliber center fielder, Taylor’s hitting at a career-best .265/.345/.388 level while cutting back on strikeouts that have some long given him trouble. In what could be a very sparse market for true center fielders, there’s decent appeal for contenders looking for help at the position. Taylor is under contact for $4.5MM next season, so the Royals don’t have to deal him. With no hope of competing this season, this will be their best chance to recoup a decent prospect return though.

Contractual details: $4.5MM salary, under contract for $4.5MM in 2023

41. Sean Murphy, C, Athletics:

As with Laureano, the price to get the A’s to pull the trigger on Murphy will be hefty. A franchise catcher controllable for three and a half seasons, he could certainly stick around in the Bay Area. He’s headed into his first season of arbitration eligibility at the end of the year, and Oakland’s acquisition of top catching prospect Shea Langeliers in the Matt Olson trade could increase their willingness to deal Murphy.

If he’s available, the 27-year-old would find plenty of demand. His .225/.294/.397 line doesn’t look like much at first glance, but it’s better than the .223/.292/.363 league mark for catchers. The greater appeal is what Murphy offers behind the plate. Owner of an elite arm and consistently strong pitch framing numbers, he’s easily a plus defender.

Contractual details: Pre-arbitration, controllable through 2025

42. Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles:

Santander is having a nice first half, drawing walks at a career-best rate en route to a .239/.323/.425 line. A switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate, he’s a sensible target for clubs looking to add some offense to the corner outfield. Santander’s .261/.315/.575 showing during the shortened 2020 season looks like an outlier. The O’s aren’t likely to see him as an untouchable member of the long-term core, but he’s an above-average hitter controllable for the next two and a half seasons.

Contractual details: $3.15MM salary, arbitration-eligible through 2024

43. Brad Keller, RHP, Royals:

Keller’s a generally low-variance back-end starter. The Royals nabbed him in the Rule 5 draft a few years ago, and they’ve been rewarded with durability and capable if not overwhelming innings. Keller doesn’t miss many bats, but he throws a fair number of strikes and racks up ground-balls. After an outlier 5.39 ERA last season, he’s bounced back with a 4.37 mark through 16 starts. Like Merrifield and Taylor, he’s controllable through 2023 but could move if Kansas City considers a more drastic roster shakeup.

Contractual details: $4.825MM salary, arbitration-eligible through 2023

44. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, D-backs:

The D-Backs would surely love the opportunity to get out from the final two and a half seasons of Bumgarner’s contract. The five-year, $85MM investment was a significant gamble for the low-payroll club, one that hasn’t paid off. Bumgarner saw his velocity and strikeout numbers tumble through his first two seasons in the desert, but he’s seen his fastball climb back to the levels he reached late during his time with the Giants.

Bumgarner throws plenty of strikes and earned a reputation as a postseason warrior in leading San Francisco to a title in 2014. That mystique paired with a modest bounceback (3.74 ERA through 17 starts) could lead a contender to kick the tires on bringing him in. Would anyone be willing to take enough of the remaining salary to make it worthwhile for Arizona?

Contractual details: $23MM salary, under contract for $23MM in 2023 and $14MM in 2024 (deal includes deferrals)

45. Pablo Lopez, RHP, Marlins:

Lopez would draw plenty of interest if the Marlins made him available. Controllable for two and a half seasons and only 26 years old, he’d quite likely bring back the strongest return package of any pitcher dealt this summer. Lopez has a 2.97 ERA across 16 starts and has posted top-of-the-rotation production since a 2020 breakout. Miami was reportedly reticent to deal the righty even when they were fairly far back in the standings a few weeks ago. It’s even harder to see them doing so now that they’ve pulled back within four games of a Wild Card spot.

Contractual details: $2.45MM salary, arbitration-eligible through 2024

46. Paul Blackburn, RHP, Athletics:

Blackburn has given the A’s 16 starts of 2.90 ERA this year, a surprising breakout campaign. He’s not a strikeout artist, but he’s long had plus control and ground-ball numbers and he’s working with career-best velocity (91.8 MPH on average) on his sinker this season. He won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until after the season and can hang around for three more years. The A’s won’t be in any rush to move him, but perhaps his breakout first half positions them to sell high on a pitcher who cleared waivers a season ago.

Contractual details: pre-arbitration, controllable through 2025

47. Austin Hays, OF, Orioles:

A former top prospect, Hays has been a solid everyday left fielder for a few seasons. He’s taken his game up a notch this year, hitting .264/.322/.448 and a personal-best hard contact rate. Set to reach arbitration for the first time next winter and controllable for three and a half seasons, there’s no urgency for the Orioles to force a deal. They’ll likely listen to offers as a matter of due diligence, but Hays is the kind of player they’re hoping to build around as they finally move towards the end of their rebuild.

Contractual details pre-arbitration, controllable through 2025

48. Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles:

It’s an almost identical situation for Hays’ outfield mate. Mullins wasn’t a top prospect but broke through emphatically in 2021, eclipsing 30 homers and steals apiece while earning some down-ballot MVP votes. He’s not playing at that level this season, but he has slightly above-average offensive marks and is regarded by most public metrics as a plus defensive center fielder. He’d bring back a massive return, but with three and a half seasons of remaining control himself, it’s unlikely the Orioles make a move.

Contractual details pre-arbitration, controllable through 2025

49. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates:

Reynolds is roughly the Pirates’ equivalent of Mullins. Reynolds is the superior hitter but probably not the same caliber of defender. Nevertheless, he’s likewise a franchise center fielder who cemented himself as a star last year and has three-plus seasons of remaining control. Pittsburgh, like Baltimore, is slowly moving away from a rebuild and has set a mammoth asking price on Reynolds in the past. That’s unlikely to change this summer, and while he’ll again draw plenty of calls from contenders, it’s hard to see a deal coming together.

Contractual details: $6.75MM salaries from 2022-23, arbitration-eligible through 2025

50. David Bednar, RP, Pirates:

Bednar comes with an even longer window of club control than Reynolds, as he can be kept around through 2026. The big right-hander has broken out as Pittsburgh’s closer since being acquired over the 2020-21 offseason. He owns a 2.26 ERA while holding opponents to a .187/.255/.321 line in just shy of 100 frames over the past year and a half. He’s already 27 and relief pitching’s volatile enough the Bucs would probably listen to offers, but it’d take a massive haul to inspire them to pull the trigger on a deal.

Contractual details: pre-arbitration, controllable through 2026

Underwater Contracts for Potential Salary Dumps:

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres: $20.625MM salary in 2022, $13.625MM salaries from 2023-25
Wil Myers, OF, Padres: $22.5MM salary in 2022, $20MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2023
Jason Heyward, Cubs: $22MM salary in 2022-23

Others of Note

Tigers: Robbie Grossman, Jonathan Schoop, Tucker Barnhart, Michael Pineda

Royals: Hunter Dozier, Arodys Vizcaino, Zack Greinke

Athletics: Tony Kemp, Jed Lowrie, Elvis Andrus, Stephen Piscotty, Stephen Vogt

Angels: Michael Lorenzen*, Kurt Suzuki, Matt Duffy

Rays: Matt Wisler

Twins: Miguel Sano

Rangers: Garrett Richards, Charlie Culberson, Kole Calhoun, Brad Miller

Yankees: Aaron Hicks, Aroldis Chapman

D-backs: Christian Walker, Jordan Luplow, Mark Melancon, Noe Ramirez, Caleb Smith, Ian Kennedy*, Zach Davies*

Braves: Adam Duvall

Cubs: Andrelton Simmons, Marcus Stroman*, Kyle Hendricks*, Daniel Norris, Drew Smyly*, Wade Miley*

Padres: Dinelson Lamet

Reds: Kyle Farmer

Nationals: Cesar Hernandez, Tanner Rainey, Sean Doolittle*, Victor Robles

Marlins: Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper, Dylan Floro, Brian Anderson, Billy Hamilton

Pirates: Ben Gamel, Chris Stratton, Jake Marisnick, Daniel Vogelbach

Giants: Carlos Rodon, Joc Pederson, Wilmer Flores, Dominic Leone, Evan Longoria*, Curt Casali, Matthew Boyd*

Rockies: Jose Iglesias, Jhoulys Chacin, Carlos Estevez

* Currently on injured list

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Leiter, Alvarez, Chourio, De La Cruz

By Brad Johnson | July 8, 2022 at 11:43am CDT

This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll mostly focus our attention upon invitees to the Futures Game.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Jones, 24, OF, CLE (AAA)

108 PA, 3 HR, 4 SB, .311/.417/.500

Once on pace to debut during the 2020 season as a 22-year-old, several factors considerably slowed Jones’s ascent. First, he came back rusty from the lost 2020 minor league season, performing particularly poorly in May. He improved as the season progressed and could have arrived in Cleveland last September if not for a season-ending ankle injury in late-August. He also opened the 2022 season on the injured list while recovering from surgery for the same injury. The Guardians finally appear poised to promote him after a month in Triple-A.

Jones is best known for his plate discipline. Expect him to show the same discerning eye as Max Muncy. Jones has a little more swing-and-miss to his game which could manifest in a 30 percent strikeout rate. Whereas Muncy’s swing has plenty of loft, Jones skews heavily towards ground ball contact. He has the raw power to be a 30-homer threat, but his combination of grounders and infrequent contact leave him projected for only 20 home runs per 600 plate appearances. Although he’s always posted exceptional BABIPs in the minors, he can get pull happy. That could open him up to BABIP-killing shifts. Since his game revolves around walks and balls in play, anything that negatively affects his BABIP could also affect how he’s used.

Jack Leiter, 22, SP, TEX (AA)

48.2 IP, 11.10 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 5.36 ERA

Leiter was aggressively assigned to Double-A to start the season, and it hasn’t been an easy transition. Optimists can readily spot encouraging signs. He’s held batters to just 44 hits while recording 60 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he’s also issued 28 walks and hit five batters. Command isn’t expected to be a long-term issue for Leiter, but it is one he’s presently battling. He’s issued 16 walks over his last 19.2 innings.

Fortunately, the recent second-overall pick retains all of his glamorous tools. He features three plus offerings – a rising fastball, curve, and slider. He also has an underdeveloped changeup. He’ll represent the Rangers in the Futures Game.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)

(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553

With Adley Rutschman graduated, Alvarez is now the consensus top catching prospect in the minors. He was recently promoted to Triple-A where he’s 1-for-10 in 13 plate appearances. He’s the Mets Futures Game representative.

Alvarez is an advanced hitter. Already one of the youngest players at Triple-A, he features plus plate discipline and huge raw power. At times, he sells out for pull-side contact. His minor league batted ball data include low line drive rates which could manifest as a low BABIP in the Majors. That said, he’s on pace to debut early next season as a 21-year-old catcher, a developmental path which tends to lead to storied careers. His bat will need to carry what could be a below average defensive profile. While he’s not bad enough to move off the position, the Mets might opt to use him as a part-time designated hitter to keep his bat in the lineup while allowing certain pitchers to work with a better defender.

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A)

236 PA, 11 HR, 9 SB, .318/.369/.594

Chourio might be the next 20-year-old uber-prospect to debut in the Majors. He will be the youngest participant in the Futures Game. Only 18, he’s already performing impressive feats of strength including three home runs in July. Presently, there’s some swing-and-miss and overaggression to his approach, but not to the extent that either is a problem. We’ll see how these secondary traits develop as he climbs the ladder.

Since earlier this season, I’ve yet to hear or read any description of Chourio that wasn’t effusive in its praise. He’s the hip teenage breakout of the year. MLB Prospect Pipeline actually has him ranked ahead of 2021’s big teenage breakout, Elly De La Cruz. At least one other midseason update will also rank Chourio ahead of De La Cruz.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, CIN (A+)

268 PA, 18 HR, 26 SB, .302/.357/.597

Speaking of De La Cruz, fantasy baseball enthusiasts are undoubtedly drooling over his combination of power and speed. The switch-hitter produces some of the top exit velocities in the minors. He’s built like Oneil Cruz, albeit two inches shorter. The obvious flaws in his game relate to discipline and whiff rate. He could have exploitable flaws as he ascends the minor league ladder. However, we’ve seen other players with this rare athletic-profile improve their strikeout rate enough to become a superstar. Since June 28, a span of 34 plate appearances, De La Cruz has five home runs and a .387/.441/.903 slash. He might not return to High-A after the Futures Game.

Five More

Yosver Zulueta, TOR (24): Zulueta will appear in the Futures Game after already churning through three levels of the minors. His development has been slowed first by Tommy John surgery and then by a torn ACL. He needs to be placed on the 40-man roster after this season (or exposed to the Rule 5 draft) despite having faced only one batter prior to this year. A former big bonus international free agent, Zulueta could move fast as a high leverage reliever, but he might also have the stuff to start with a Spencer Strider-like two-pitch approach.

DL Hall, BAL (23): Since the last BHP, Hall has pitched twice. He’s totaled 10 innings of one-run ball including just four hits allowed and three walks. He struck out 22 of 38 batters faced. Hall is more than halfway to a career-high in innings. He might be seen as ready to get his feet wet in the Majors as a short-burst starter. Notably, his 5.77 BB/9 in Triple-A could be a barrier to starting long-term. Of qualified pitchers, Dylan Cease ranks last with 4.21 BB/9. Pitchers with higher walk rates don’t pile up innings. Hall will not be attending the Futures Game.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson is the Orioles Futures Game representative. He’s also jumped into the Top five on the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline. He’s actually in his first funk of the season, batting just .133/.188/.167 with 15 strikeouts over his last seven games (32 PA).

Logan O’Hoppe, PHI (22): The Phillies have left O’Hoppe in Double-A where he’s batting .270/.383/.521 with 14 home runs and five steals in 256 plate appearances. His offensive numbers could be inflated both by Reading and a weak Double-A pitching environment. Either way, he profiles as a future big league regular. If the Phillies remain in contention in the upcoming weeks, he’s their one big, expendable trade chip. He might stay in Double-A through the deadline.

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): Like many pitching prospects, Harrison’s workload was carefully managed early in the season at High-A. Upon promotion to Double-A, he’s been making normal starts typically in the range of 20 to 24 batters faced. He’s on track to make his Major League debut in 2023. His mechanics offer an uncomfortable look. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a front angle. He has a floor as a high-leverage reliever, but he’s likelier to be used as a mid-rotation pitcher.

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Carroll, Yorke, Peraza, Tovar

By Brad Johnson | July 1, 2022 at 4:38pm CDT

This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)

129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407

Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.

Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.

Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.

Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)

277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643

Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.

Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)

198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346

Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.

Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.

Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)

249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404

There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.

Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.

Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)

295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.

Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).

The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.

Five More

Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.

DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.

Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.

Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.

Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.

The Orioles’ Waiver Claim All-Star (And Trade Candidate)

By Steve Adams | June 30, 2022 at 6:46pm CDT

The Orioles have acquired their fair share of formerly well-regarded prospects over the course of a drawn-out rebuild, as one would expect of a team in their situation. For the most part, there’s little to show for their frequent waiver claims and minor trades in this arena, however. Names like Maikel Franco, Kelvin Gutierrez, Carson Fulmer, Chris Shaw, Dilson Herrera, Rio Ruiz and Jahmai Jones have had brief spells in recent years, none producing much in the way of value. Longtime top prospect Jorge Mateo is currently on the roster and leading the AL with 19 steals … but he’s also been one of MLB’s worst hitters, evidenced by a .199/.247/.335 batting line.

For much of his tenure with the Orioles, it looked as though right-hander Jorge Lopez was destined to join that list of once-promising names who got another shot in Baltimore but never really panned out. Lopez was a second-round pick of the Brewers back in 2011 and ranked as one of the system’s better arms for years. He was eventually traded to the Royals alongside Brett Phillips in the deal that brought Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee, and Lopez went on to have a rather nondescript run in Kansas City. Appearing in 47 games — 25 of them starts — he was rocked for a 6.42 ERA over the life of 158 1/3 innings. The Royals eventually felt he’d had enough opportunities and cut bait. The Orioles claimed Lopez off waivers.

Lopez’s first two years in Baltimore were a near-mirror image of his ugly run with the Royals. From Aug. 2020 through the end of the 2021 season, Lopez started 31 games and made 11 relief appearances with the O’s; he posted a 6.13 ERA (5.22 FIP) with a 19.3% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and 1.58 HR/9 through 160 innings pitched.

Heading into the offseason, Lopez looked as though his time with the team could be up. Due for his first trip through the arbitration process, Lopez was a soon-to-be-29-year-old who’d posted an ERA north of 6.00 in three consecutive seasons. The O’s had acquired and subsequently discarded plenty of former top prospects of this nature, and few fans or pundits would’ve been surprised to see Lopez meet the same fate. Many — myself included — felt a Lopez non-tender was all but a given.

Instead, the Orioles signed Lopez to a one-year, $1.5MM deal on the day of the non-tender deadline. It might prove to be the best use of payroll resources so far during Mike Elias’ time as the team’s general manager, as Lopez appears all but assured of earning his first ever All-Star nod.

Through the first three months of the season, the 29-year-old Lopez has stepped up not only as Baltimore’s closer but as one of the best relievers in Major League Baseball. Pitching exclusively in relief for the first time in his big league career, Lopez has seen the average velocity on his sinker jump to a career-best 98.0 mph. Never one to miss many bats in prior seasons, he’s logged an 11.6% swinging-strike rate that, while not elite, is three percentage points higher than his pre-2022 career mark and is slightly north of the 11.1% MLB average. Unsurprisingly, he’s fanning opponents at a career-best 27.1% clip so far in 2022. Again, it’s not an elite level — Lopez is tied for 64th among 178 qualified relievers in overall strikeout rate — but it’s comfortably above the 23.4% league average for relievers.

Lopez does possess at least one elite skill, however. Opposing hitters can barely elevate the ball against him. The right-hander’s 64% ground-ball rate is the third-best in baseball among qualified relievers, and while no one’s catching Clay Holmes in that regard (82.4%), Lopez’s power sinker has helped to turn him into a bona fide bullpen force.

The success lies not solely in the fact that Lopez is getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground — it’s in the fact that the contact against him, both in the air and on the ground, is generally hapless. Hitters are averaging an 84.5 mph exit velocity against Lopez on grounders — well below the league average — but even when they manage to lift the ball, it’s been wildly ineffectual. Lopez has yet to surrender a home run this season, and his opponents’ average 89.7 mph exit velo on liners/fly-balls is tied for the 19th-lowest mark among 368 qualified big league pitchers.

Given the sinker’s dominance, it’s not a surprise to see Lopez going to it more than ever before. He’s all but scrapped his four-seamer, throwing it at just a three percent clip so far in 2022, while his sinker is being used at a career-high 51.3% clip. He’s also throwing his slider at a career-high 12% pace and his changeup at a career-high 15.9% rate — with that change in secondary offerings coming at the expense of his previous go-to curveball. Lopez is still tossing that curve 17.8% of the time, but that’s down considerably from 2018-21’s 27.8% usage rate. The velocity uptick is across the board — even Lopez’s changeup is average just under 91 mph — and it’s effectively rendered all four of his main offerings as above-average pitches. FanGraphs’ run values peg each of Lopez’s sinker, curveball, changeup and slider as positive-value pitches this season.

If it seems like an out-of-the-blue breakout, that’s mostly true, although it’s possible that Lopez’s August/September performance in 2021 served both as a portent for this turnaround and as a means of saving his roster spot. Lopez lost his rotation spot after an Aug. 19 drubbing at the hands of the Rays (four runs in two innings). His next outing came out of the bullpen and featured a scoreless inning with a pair of strikeouts — and from that point forth, Lopez would pitch 8 1/3 innings of relief while allowing just two runs on six hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts.

That’s a tiny sample, of course, but the seeds of this breakout were quite likely planted at that point. From Opening Day 2021 through that final start on Aug. 19, Lopez threw his four-seam fastball at a 24.2% clip and his sinker at a 33.3% clip. The sinker was still favored, but his ineffective four-seam heater was a prominent part of his repertoire. Over his final eight relief appearances, Lopez shifted gear and turned to his sinker at a 48.4% rate while cutting back the use of his four-seamer to just 15.3%. The sinker, which had sat at 95 mph out of the rotation, jumped to 96.5 mph on average, and Lopez’s overall ground-ball rate soared from 49.4% to 66.7%.

Small-sample sources of intrigue like these don’t always pan out, but the O’s deserve credit for looking at Lopez’s strong bullpen showing down the stretch in 2021 and believing that he could build on that formula over a larger sample. The risk was minimal — $1.5MM and a 40-man roster spot all winter — but few would’ve batted an eye had the O’s non-tendered Lopez and looked to utilize that roster spot in a different manner.

Instead, the Orioles now have a pitcher who has genuinely been one of MLB’s best relievers in 2022. Lopez has a minuscule 0.73 ERA on the year, and he ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in each of the following (according to Statcast): expected ERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected wOBA, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. Lopez is one of just five relievers in MLB (min. 30 innings) with a strikeout rate greater than 25%, a walk rate under 10% and a ground-ball rate north of 50%. The others — Holmes, Taylor Rogers, Emmanuel Clase and breakout rookie Jhoan Duran — are considered among baseball’s elite.

Of course, given the Orioles’ place in the standings and the protracted nature of their rebuild, trade speculation regarding Lopez is inevitable. General manager Mike Elias will absolutely be receiving calls and texts about Lopez’s availability — he surely already has — and Elias generally takes a “no one is off the table” approach regarding his veteran players. Lopez will surely be “available” to an extent, but there might not be a trade candidate in baseball who has elevated his stock quite this dramatically in 2022.

Beyond Lopez’s pure dominance, he’d be a multi-year fix for any team willing to pony up with a hefty offer. The right-hander has two years of club control remaining beyond the current season, and given this year’s eminently affordable $1.5MM salary, his future raises will be starting from a relatively low baseline. In other words, he ought to remain overwhelmingly affordable — especially relative to his newfound production — over the remainder of that club control.

The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade Lopez. By the time his club control is drawing to a close, in 2024, they may well finally be back to a state of competitiveness. At the same time, reliever performance is volatile on a year-to-year basis. Just as there’s risk in selling a high-end contributor like Lopez for unproven young talent, there’s risk that Lopez will sustain an injury or simply a downturn in performance — even if that appears unlikely based on his current skill set.

The O’s, for instance, had plenty of interest in lefty Paul Fry prior to last year’s deadline but held onto him (and his remaining three-plus years of club control). Fry melted down with 19 runs over seven post-deadline innings and wound up being designated for assignment earlier this year (at which point he was flipped to the D-backs for a 19-year-old in Rookie ball). Fry’s trade value wasn’t nearly as high as Lopez’s is now, nor was his future outlook quite so promising. That said, the manner in which his Baltimore tenure panned out is illustrative of the risk associated with rebuilding clubs holding onto bullpen arms in hopes of down-the-road contributions.

The nexus of Lopez’s dominance, his remaining club control and the Orioles’ timeline to compete will make him one of the most fascinating borderline cases to monitor as this year’s Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer. In the meantime, he’ll give O’s fans good reason to tune into the All-Star Game — well, if he’s still wearing an Orioles uniform by that point.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

MLBTR Originals

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect