The Guardians’ Former Rule 5 Breakout Reliever
The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).
Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.
That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.
That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.
There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.
While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.
The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.
Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.
Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Reds’ Numerous Outfield Possibilities
The Reds go into the 2023 campaign looking at another evaluation year. Cincinnati is coming off a 100-loss season and didn’t make many immediate upgrades over the winter. It’ll be a non-competitive season, one that sees a number of unproven players look to carve out longer-term roles.
No area of the roster is more wide open than the outfield. Cincinnati has eight outfielders on their 40-man roster. Of that group, only offseason signee Wil Myers has a lengthy big league track record. Myers had some ups and downs as a member of the Padres, showcasing strong power potential at times but undercutting it with lofty strikeout totals at others. Signed to a one-year, $7.5MM deal, he’ll surely receive regular playing time either in the corner outfield or at first base. The franchise will hope he’ll hit well enough to draw some attention from contenders at the trade deadline.
Everyone else in the Cincinnati outfield is hoping to earn a consistent spot in the lineup. It’s a similar group to that of the rebuilding Athletics — one that has a glut of upper level options but very little in the way of established big league production.
Jake Fraley, 27, two minor league options remaining
Fraley is probably the favorite for regular reps among the group of unproven players. Acquired from the Mariners in last spring’s Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker deal, Fraley put up an impressive .259/.344/.468 line with 12 home runs over his first 247 plate appearances as a Red. Most of that work came in the season’s second half, as he lost a good portion of the beginning of the year to right knee issues.
The lefty-swinging Fraley also posted solid offensive marks in a limited role in Seattle the previous year. He carries a .235/.348/.419 line with 21 homers and 16 doubles in 145 games over the past couple seasons. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard but makes contact at a decent clip and has an extremely patient offensive approach. Fraley has limited experience in center and right field (rating poorly at both stops); he’s gotten solid reviews from public defensive metrics for his left field glovework.
Nick Senzel, 27, three options remaining
A former #2 overall pick, Senzel was a consensus top prospect before reaching the majors in 2019. He hasn’t met those expectations thus far, struggling to a .240/.303/.360 line in 1036 career plate appearances. A natural third baseman, Senzel moved primarily to center field at the MLB level and has gotten middling to well below-average reviews for his glove from various metrics.
Senzel has shown above-average contact skills at the big league level, though he hasn’t made much of a power impact. Despite his early-career struggles, the Reds have maintained throughout the offseason they plan to give him another crack at seizing the center field job. It feels like a make-or-break season, with Senzel now into his arbitration seasons and having performed below replacement level thus far.
The Reds are obviously still hopeful he can take a long-awaited step forward. He’ll first need to get healthy. Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe over the offseason. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote this afternoon that he’s begun swinging a bat in simulated games at the team’s spring complex. He has yet to progress to full speed running.
TJ Friedl, 27, two options remaining
Friedl has been one of the more interesting outfielders in the Cincinnati farm system for a few seasons. He got a brief big league look late in 2021 and received his first extended action last season. In 258 plate appearances across 72 games, he hit at a league average clip: .240/.314/.436 with eight home runs, a modest 7.8% walk percentage and a tiny 15.5% strikeout rate.
The left-handed hitter had more resounding success over a similar stretch of time for Triple-A Louisville. Friedl posted a .278/.371/.468 line with eight homers, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.9% strikeout percentage over 241 trips with the Bats. That mostly aligns with his longstanding prospect reputation. Friedl doesn’t have much power but he has a solid feel for the strike zone and puts the ball in play with regularity. He can play all three outfield positions, though advanced metrics weren’t enthused with his first MLB work on the grass. Friedl has typically been regarded by prospect evaluators as a high-probability fourth/fifth outfielder. The upcoming campaign could be his best opportunity to outperform that expectation.
Will Benson, 24, three options remaining
Benson, acquired from the Guardians last month, has a polar opposite approach from Friedl. He’s also a left-handed batter but boasts huge power upside with a long track record of lofty strikeout totals. A former first-round draftee whose prospect shine had dimmed, Benson put himself back on the map with arguably a career-best season last year.
In 89 games with Cleveland’s top minor league affiliate, he hit .278/.426/.522 with 17 home runs. Benson walked a massive 18.7% clip — par for the course throughout his career — and struck out in an average 22.7% of his trips. It was the first time he’d posted a strikeout rate below 28% at any stop and only his second season fanning in fewer than 30% of his PA’s. Benson didn’t produce in a 28-game MLB cameo and was still buried on Cleveland’s outfield depth chart, but his step forward intrigued the Reds enough to take a look. He’s best suited for right field and can cover center on occasion.
Nick Solak, 28, one option remaining
Another one-time top prospect, Solak has had some inconsistent performances the past few years with the Rangers. He had an excellent 33-game debut in 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, the righty-swinging Solak carries a modest .246/.317/.354 line in 839 MLB plate appearances. Longstanding concerns about his defense at second base eventually pushed him to left field, where he has gotten subpar grades from public statistics.
To his credit, Solak hasn’t allowed his MLB inconsistency to bleed into his performance in the minor leagues. Optioned to Triple-A by Texas last season, he put up an impressive .278/.371/.489 mark with 10 longballs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.7% strikeout percentage in 57 contests. The Rangers never seemed to trust him enough to give him an extended look despite woeful MLB production from their left fielders, though. Texas dealt him to Cincinnati for cash immediately after the season ended.
Michael Siani, 23, three options remaining
A former fourth-round pick, Siani has spent the past few seasons ranked among the middle tiers of the Cincinnati farm system. Praised for his speed and defensive acumen in center field, he went 49 for 61 as a basestealer over 121 Double-A games last year. His overall .252/.351/.404 line with 12 home runs at that level was solid if unexceptional for a 22-year-old. Siani earned cups of coffee in both Louisville and Cincinnati towards the end of the season.
It stands to reason Cincinnati will start Siani back in Triple-A given his lack of experience there. Baseball America ranked him the organization’s #19 prospect this winter, projecting him as a glove-first fourth outfielder.
Stuart Fairchild, 26, one option remaining
A former Cincinnati second-round pick, Fairchild was dealt to the Diamondbacks at the 2020 trade deadline. He made his MLB debut with Arizona the following season, getting into 12 games. The Wake Forest product bounced around via minor trade and waivers last year, playing in four different organizations. He finished the season back with his original club when the Reds nabbed him off waivers from the Giants in June.
Fairchild played in 38 games for Cincinnati, connecting on five home runs in 99 trips. He struck out 29 times while drawing only eight walks but showed intriguing power. That was also the case in Triple-A, where he combined for a .258/.353/.490 line in 53 contests despite the constant uniform changes. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions.
Chad Pinder, 30, not on 40-man roster
Pinder, a longtime member of the Athletics, signed a non-roster pact with a major league Spring Training invitation this winter. He’s coming off a .235/.263/.385 showing in 111 games for Oakland. The right-handed hitting Pinder has some power and a decent track record of hitting lefty pitching. He’s versatile enough to cover anywhere on the infield in addition to his corner outfield work. Pinder seems to have a strong chance at securing a bench role given that flexibility and Cincinnati’s fairly left-handed outfield mix. As a major league free agent who signed a minor league contract, he’ll have an automatic opt-out opportunity five days before the start of the regular season if he’s not added to the MLB roster.
Overall
Aside from Pinder, former highly-regarded prospect Allan Cerda and KBO veteran Henry Ramos are also in camp on non-roster contracts. Neither looks to have a strong chance at cracking the Opening Day roster considering the number of alternative outfield options for the front office and coaching staff to evaluate.
Myers is the only member of the current group who can’t be sent to the minor leagues, although Pinder couldn’t be optioned if he cracks the MLB roster. That could set the stage for plenty of shuffling over the next six months. The organization is surely hoping two or three players from the group will cement themselves as everyday options based on their 2023 production, lending some clarity to the longer-term mix.
Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers
In conjunction with this entry in our annual Offseason in Review series, MLBTR will be conducting a Rangers-centric chat today at 11am. You can submit a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live.
The Rangers didn’t replicate last year’s half-billion dollar spending bonanza, but they sure didn’t let up in terms of aggression during Chris Young’s first offseason as the lead decision-maker for baseball operations.
Major League Signings
- Jacob deGrom, RHP: Five years, $185MM (includes conditional club/player options for 2028 season)
- Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: Two years, $34MM (includes conditional 2025 player option)
- Andrew Heaney, LHP: Two years, $25MM (Heaney can opt out after 2023)
- Martin Perez, LHP: One year, $19.65MM (accepted qualifying offer)
- Robbie Grossman, OF: One year, $2MM
2023 spend: $82.15MM
Total spend: $265.65MM
Option Decisions
- Exercised $6MM club option on RHP Jose Leclerc
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Jake Odorizzi and $10MM from the Braves in exchange for LHP Kolby Allard
- Traded INF/OF Nick Solak to the Reds in exchange for cash
- Traded RHP Dennis Santana to the Braves in exchange for cash
- Claimed RHP Nick Mears off waivers from the Pirates (later lost to Rockies via waivers)
Extensions
- None (yet)
Notable Minor League Signings
- Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Clint Frazier, Dominic Leone, Sandy Leon, Zack Littell, Reyes Moronta, Travis Jankowski, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Jacob Barnes, Joe McCarthy, Elier Hernandez, Joe Palumbo, Kyle Funkhouser, Bernardo Flores Jr.
Notable Losses
- Kole Calhoun, Matt Moore, Charlie Culberson, Nick Solak, Kolby Allard, Dennis Santana, A.J. Alexy, Kohei Arihara
For the first time in nearly 20 years, the Rangers’ offseason was overseen by a baseball operations leader other than Jon Daniels. Ownership dismissed Daniels, who’d been one of MLB’s longest-tenured general managers/presidents of baseball operations, after 17 years on the job. The reins were handed to former big league pitcher Chris Young, who’s spent the past few seasons under Daniels and now has autonomy for the first time in his still-fledgling executive career.
One of Young’s first tasks was to replace manager Chris Woodward, whom Daniels had fired just days prior to his own dismissal, and it proved to be one of the highest-profile acquisitions of the winter for the Rangers. After trending toward less-experienced managers with their last two hires — both Woodward and Jeff Banister were first-time big league skippers in Texas — the Rangers instead hired one of the most experienced and well-respected managers in the game.
Bruce Bochy announced prior to the 2019 season that he planned to retire the following winter, although a year later he’d describe the situation differently, suggesting he was just “pressing the pause button” on his career and taking some time with his family. Indeed, Bochy’s managerial days appear far from over; he’s now the manager in Texas after inking a three-year deal to guide the Rangers out of what looks to be a short-lived rebuilding effort.
With a new dugout leader and revamped coaching staff in place, Young, a veteran of 13 big league seasons on the mound, set to work in building out the roster. While the 2021-22 offseason was focused largely on acquiring bats in the form of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the 2022-23 offseason looked more like one engineered by a former big league hurler. Recent top picks like Owen White, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Cole Winn are looming, but the Rangers needed instant augmentation for a rotation that ranked 25th in the Majors in ERA during the 2022 season.
And, immediate augmentation they got. Young and his staff effectively acquired an entire rotation’s worth of veteran arms on deals ranging from one to five years in length, which should provide present-day stability while also creating organic opportunities for that burgeoning crop of minor league pitching talent to force its way onto the roster. First and foremost, the Rangers made a straightforward call to offer Martin Perez a $19.65MM qualifying offer after he posted a breakout 2.89 ERA in a team-high 196 1/3 frames. A year ago, a QO for Perez would’ve seemed unthinkable, but Perez earned it with his performance last season, and it’s a sensible short-term bet on a durable lefty who made clear he hoped to stay in Texas following last winter’s reunion.
That, however, only maintained the status quo. Further help was needed, and the Rangers wasted little time in securing it. A five-year, $185MM deal for two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom shattered even the most bullish expectations; there was thought that deGrom could top Max Scherzer‘s record $43.33MM annual value on a three-year deal or perhaps even on a four-year deal, but few observers could’ve foreseen a five-year term. The length of the deal perhaps tamped down the AAV a bit, but deGrom’s $37MM AAV was the second-largest for any pitcher in history at the time of the deal and still ranks third, trailing only Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who ostensibly replaced deGrom in Queens when he signed a two-year, $86.6MM pact.
The Rangers are taking pronounced risk with deGrom, who’s pitched just 156 1/3 innings and made 26 total starts over the past two seasons. That’s understandably dropped an injury-prone label on the longtime Mets ace, but it’s worth noting that prior to 2021, deGrom embodied the workhorse mentality. He made all 12 possible starts during the shortened 2020 season and, from 2015-19, averaged 30 starts and 192 1/3 innings per season (not including postseason workload).
When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. He has a 2.05 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate over his past 645 1/3 MLB frames, and although his 2021-22 seasons were shortened he’s been even better in that time: 1.90 ERA with a ludicrous 44% strikeout rate against a 3.4% walk rate. The Rangers are placing a massive bet on deGrom’s ability to return to a full season’s workload, and the risk and contract are particularly shocking when considering that he’ll turn 35 in June. That said, deGrom is so talented that he might not even need to pitch a full slate of starts for the Rangers to feel good about the return on their investment.
The other rotation bets made by Texas were similar ceiling plays with substantial injury risk. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi looked primed for another four-year deal last June, when he was sporting a 3.16 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate and deGrom-esque 3.6% walk rate through 12 starts and 68 1/3 frames. Back troubles landed him on the injured list, however, and while he returned a month later, Eovaldi worked with diminished velocity before going back on the injured list with a shoulder issue. He returned to toss 9 2/3 innings of one-run ball late in the season, but again, the velocity was down considerably; Eovaldi averaged 96.7 mph on his heater through June 8 but 94.5 mph thereafter.
Nonetheless, Eovaldi’s appeal is clear. He’s the rare hard-thrower who pairs that velocity with elite command; since Opening Day 2020, Clayton Kershaw is the only starting pitcher (min. 150 total innings) with a lower walk rate than Eovaldi. From Opening Day 2020 through June 8 of this past season, Eovaldi boasted a 3.61 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate in 299 innings. He’s twice had Tommy John surgery in his career, however, and the aforementioned loss of more than two miles per hour off his heater following back and shoulder injuries is an obvious red flag. Can he regain that lost velo while maintaining his elite command and holding up for a full starter’s workload? Eovaldi has just three seasons of 150-plus innings in his MLB career, but the Rangers were bullish enough on his outlook to surrender a draft pick in order to sign him, as he’d rejected a qualifying offer from Boston. (Texas also surrendered a pick for deGrom; they parted with their second- and third-highest selections in 2023 by making those signings.)
Even higher on the risk-reward spectrum is left-hander Andrew Heaney, who was limited to 72 2/3 innings by shoulder troubles last year but transformed from a tantalizing but homer-prone blend of strikeout-walk intrigue into a legitimate buzzsaw when he was healthy with the Dodgers in 2022. The Dodgers scrapped Heaney’s curveball in favor of a new slider, and opponents were utterly bewildered by the offering.
Heaney fanned a massive 35.5% of opponents against a 6.1% walk rate en route to a 3.10 ERA. He remained homer-prone, but among the 188 pitchers with at least 70 innings thrown in 2022 (relievers and starters alike), no one induced a higher swinging-strike rate than Heaney’s 16.8%. His 39.5% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate trailed only Kevin Gausman (42.7%) and Emmanuel Clase (a superhuman 49.8%).
The Rangers’ new-look rotation is teeming both with upside and with injury risk. However, the risk factor with all these rotation investments wasn’t lost on Texas. The Rangers could surely have found a team interested in acquiring pre-arbitration righties Dane Dunning or Glenn Otto after each posted back-of-the-rotation results in 2022 (4.46 ERA in 153 1/3 innings for Dunning; 4.64 ERA in 135 2/3 innings for Otto). However, Young and his crew held onto both righties — and they also swung a trade to acquire veteran Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. Odorizzi exercised a hearty $12.5MM player option, but the Braves kicked in $10MM to facilitate the swap, leaving the Rangers on the hook for just $2.5MM. For a veteran who’ll likely open in a long relief/sixth starter role, it’s an eminently affordable price to pay (especially considering how solid Odorizzi was in 2022 prior to his trade to Atlanta).
It’s feasible that over the remaining month of spring training or the first few months of the season, other clubs will inquire on the availability of anyone from the Dunning/Otto/Odorizzi trio — especially as other injuries arise on teams with less depth than the Rangers possess. There’s no urgency for Texas to move any member of that trio, though, and the mere fact that an organization that was so pitching-starved in 2022 now has that type of depth is a testament both to the work of the front office and to the commitment of ownership to field a club capable of returning to postseason contention. The Rangers even went so far as to reportedly meet with Carlos Rodon after they’d already signed deGrom, but that match obviously never came to fruition.
Of course, the rotation is just one element of the roster, and it’d be fair to wonder whether the Texas front office put enough emphasis on the rest of the team. The Rangers allowed Matt Moore to depart for a division rival (Angels) after he turned in one of the most effective seasons of any reliever in MLB last year, and they’ve done nothing to concretely replace him. Recognizable names like Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Dominic Leone, Reyes Moronta and Zack Littell were signed to minor league deals, but none are guaranteed roster spots. Meanwhile, the Rangers are also expected to be without southpaw Brett Martin for most or all of the 2023 season, after he underwent shoulder surgery.
In their defense, the Rangers are hoping to get full seasons out of both Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez in 2023. Both righties missed substantial time in 2022 while mending from Tommy John surgery performed a year prior. That’s a huge boost to the relief corps, and last year’s quiet breakout from Brock Burke and strong showing from Joe Barlow give Bochy a quality group of arms in the late innings. Still, there was room for at least one more bullpen addition. Perhaps Young & Co. have one more strike up their sleeve and will swoop on a lefty like Zack Britton, Will Smith or Brad Hand — each of whom remains unsigned — but the lack of attention to the bullpen could come back to bite them.
Similar questions abound with regard to the lineup. Semien and Seager form a quality middle infield combo. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe had a breakout showing at the plate. Jonah Heim is an underrated option behind the dish. In the outfield, Adolis Garcia has a questionable approach at the plate but a tooled-up blend of power, speed and defense that’s tough to match. Leody Taveras didn’t hit much in 2022 but can play center field better than most.
Still, that only accounts for two-thirds of the lineup. Top prospect Josh Jung will get an opportunity at third base after shoulder surgery wiped out most of his 2022 season, but he’s yet to prove himself as a big league regular. There was clear room to add a regular in left field, but the Rangers added Robbie Grossman after spring training had opened and will rely on him combining with Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Bubba Thompson, Mark Mathias and perhaps some non-roster invitees (e.g. Clint Frazier, Travis Jankowski, Elier Hernandez) to round out the outfield. At designated hitter, the Rangers seem likely to rotate several members of that left field hodgepodge.
That said, Lowe’s glovework at first makes him a DH candidate, so Texas could’ve added at least one more first base/corner outfield type of bat to deepen the lineup. Given all the money spent on the rotation and all the risk they took on in that regard, it’s a bit puzzling that Texas essentially pulled some punches when addressing the lineup. A platoon with Grossman bashing lefties and one of the Rangers’ many lefty-swinging left field candidates could prove productive, but it’s an underwhelming conclusion to an offseason that featured so many fireworks on the starting pitching front. And, if Jung gets hurt again or looks overmatched at the hot corner, there’s little in the way of veteran depth to help offset the struggles. Miller is an option, but he’s a 33-year-old seeking a rebound on the heels of a poor 2022 showing.
Jung is a big-time prospect, and there are so many bodies in the left field/designated hitter mix that it’s possible this is all much ado about nothing a few months down the line. It’s equally plausible, however, that the Rangers find themselves in the market for some corner help to bolster the lineup this summer, and at that point, the lack of attention to the the lineup would only prove more glaring. This feels like an area where they should’ve placed some greater focus, but it’s admittedly tough to be all that critical of ownership’s spending after they invested $821MM over a period of just two offseasons.
Everyone in the AL West is looking up at the Astros. The Rangers, while improved, aren’t clearly better than the Mariners after Seattle ended a 20-year postseason drought in 2022. The Angels are an improved squad as well. Even after all their spending dating back to last winter, a playoff berth is not a given for these Rangers.
It’s overwhelmingly clear, though, that this is the most formidable Rangers club we’ve seen in some time, and if they can improbably find themselves in a spot where deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney and Jon Gray hold up for the bulk of the season alongside the more durable Perez, the Rangers could find themselves in the thick of the postseason race. You can question the risks they took, but this a team that’s clearly aiming to contend right now, and the pieces to do just that are in place — if they can avoid the injured list.
How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason?
How would you grade the Rangers' offseason?
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B 47% (1,279)
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A 35% (952)
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C 13% (343)
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D 3% (74)
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F 3% (69)
Total votes: 2,717
The Athletics’ Outfield Dilemma
In late January, I took a look at some of the Athletics’ options in what’s a generally crowded mix of rotation possibilities. Calling it a true logjam or crunch might overstate things a bit, as those monikers are typically more appropriate when there are more established players than there are spots to go around. For the A’s, it was more a matter how they can divide up the innings among a wide variety of unproven names.
Similar questions persist in the outfield, where Oakland has one lock for playing time and otherwise a carousel of names who could rotate through the remaining spots. Ramon Laureano is a fixture in the outfield and will continue to be through much of the season’s first half, at least (health-permitting). Laureano can play all three spots but has been better in right field than in center recently. He’s coming off a disappointing .211/.287/.376 batting line in 2022, but from 2018-21 he slashed .263/.335/.465 while playing quality defense.
Were it not for injuries and an 80-game PED suspension derailing Laureano’s trajectory, he might already have been traded by now. The A’s have gutted the rest of the roster while embarking on their latest rebuild, but Laureano is one of the few remaining veterans. Trading him this offseason would’ve been selling low, but it’d only take a couple months of productive ball to restore some of the 2018-21 shine. With a good showing in April, May and June, expect Laureano to be among the more talked-about trade candidates on the summer market.
Because of that, he should be penciled in for full-time at-bats in the outfield. It seems likely that’ll come more in the corners than in center, but whatever form it takes, Laureano’s going to be out there every day.
As far as the rest of the outfield is concerned, things are far murkier. Let’s take a look at who’ll be vying for playing time…
On the 40-man roster
Cristian Pache, 24, RHH, no minor league options remaining
Pache’s lack of minor league options and lack of production in either Triple-A or the Majors make him the most confounding player of this group. He’s still just 24 years old, is considered to be an elite defender, and as recently as the 2020-21 offseason was considered to be among the 20 best prospects in all of baseball. Pache’s bat simply hasn’t developed, however, evidenced by a disastrous .156/.205/.254 batting line in 332 MLB plate appearances and an ugly .248/.298/.389 showing in Triple-A last season. Pache posted five Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average in only 646 innings last year. He’s one of the best defensive players in the game but currently one of its worst hitters. The A’s can’t send him down without exposing him to waivers, and the glove alone would probably get Pache claimed. At the same time, it’s hard to keep trotting him out there with such an anemic batting line. Giving up on Pache as an everyday player and relegating him to a bench role is also unpalatable, though, given his youth and the fact that he was one of the key pieces in the trade that sent Matt Olson to the Braves. The A’s have to hope Pache can somehow develop his offensive approach at the big league level, and if he can’t, he could eventually force them into a tough decision. A big spring could also position him as a trade candidate; manager Mark Kotsay candidly admitted last month that Pache could be “showcasing himself for 29 other teams.”
Esteury Ruiz, 24, RHH, two minor league options remaining
The Pache dilemma is exacerbated by the fact that the A’s acquired another potential center fielder in this offseason’s Sean Murphy trade. The 24-year-old Ruiz stole a whopping 86 bases in 2022 and is considered among the fastest players in the sport. Like Pache, he has the potential for plus range in center, though scouting reports are far more bullish on Pache’s instincts and overall defensive prowess. There are some similar red flags with Ruiz’s game, though his minor league numbers are a sight to behold. He hit .332/.447/.526 in 541 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season, but Ruiz also posted bottom-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard contact numbers. His lack of hard contact can be somewhat erased by what’ll surely be plenty of infield hits, but there are questions about how impactful his bat and glove can be at the game’s top level. He’s ready for a look right now, but playing time will depend on how the A’s view Pache and, quite likely, their other offseason outfield acquisition. Speaking of which…
JJ Bleday, 25, LHH, three minor league options remaining
Acquired in a straight-up swap for reliever A.J. Puk, Bleday is a former No. 4 overall draft pick whose prospect star has dimmed in recent years as he’s struggled throughout the minors. The Marlins have spent several years in search of an everyday center fielder and still don’t have one, yet they were content to trade Bleday for a controllable bullpen piece. Scouting reports on Bleday peg him as more of a left fielder, and clearly the Marlins agree, or else they wouldn’t have moved on. Bleday has above-average raw power, but he strikes out and pops up too often in trying to get to it in a game setting. He’s a career .225/.337/.409 hitter in the minors, and his strikeout rate has risen at every level, topping out at 27% in Triple-A last year and 28.2% in his 238-plate appearance MLB debut. Bleday took 605 PAs between Triple-A and the Majors last season and, in addition to 166 strikeouts, he popped up a staggering 33 times. That’s an automatic out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances. The A’s can offer some new coaching perspective, so perhaps they can unlock something in Bleday that the Marlins couldn’t, but so far the results on Bleday haven’t come close to aligning with his draft status.
Seth Brown, 30, LHH, two minor league options remaining
Because Brown has spent so much time at first base and in right field (688 innings apiece), it may be a surprise to many that he’s also logged 141 innings in center. He’s not a great option there, but Brown can handle the spot in a pinch and can cycle through all three outfield spots, first base and designated hitter. He’ll have free-agent signee Jesus Aguilar and Oakland’s Rule 5 pick Ryan Noda (more on him in a bit) competing for time at those positions, however, so Brown could see a fair bit of outfield work. The 30-year-old Brown smashed 25 home runs last year and stands as one of the team’s primary power threats. Virtually all of his MLB production has come against righties, which leads to some easy platoon maneuverings. Brown will be arbitration-eligible next winter, and if he continues bashing righties in the first half, he’ll join Laureano on the trade market.
Tony Kemp, 31, LHH, cannot be optioned without his consent (five-plus years of service time)
One of the team’s elder statesmen at just 31 years of age, Kemp is another likely summer trade candidate. He’s spent more time at second base than in left field over the past few seasons, but he’s played both with a fair degree of regularity. Oakland’s signing of Aledmys Diaz could cut into his time at second base, though. Kemp, like Brown, is a better hitter against righties, though the split isn’t as glaring in his case. He should be out there regularly to begin the season, but the presence of Diaz and looming prospect Zack Gelof feels like it’ll eventually lead to a trade, so long as Kemp is playing reasonably well.
Aledmys Diaz, 32, RHH, cannot be optioned
The A’s needed to spend some money this offseason, and luring free-agent bats to a last-place club in a cavernous home park can’t be easy. They paid up on a pair of multi-year deals for versatile infield/outfield veterans Diaz and Jace Peterson (the former of whom seems ticketed for regular work at third base). Diaz can act as a left-handed complement to Kemp at second base, mix in at all four infield slots and will probably also see occasional time in left field and at designated hitter. He’s making more than $7MM this season, which is a sizable sum by Oakland’s standards, so expect him to play fairly regularly.
Ryan Noda, 26, LHH, cannot be optioned (Rule 5 Draft pick)
Noda will need to earn his way onto the roster, but he’s a first base/corner outfield slugger who was blocked in Los Angeles by names like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. With the A’s, there are no such roadblocks to playing time, and he’ll get the chance to prove his career .894 OPS in the minors, including a .259/.396/.474 showing in Triple-A Oklahoma City last year can carry over to the big league level, to some extent. Noda, 27 later this month, has nearly twice as much first base time as he does corner outfield time in his pro career, but the A’s grabbed him for his bat, and he’ll get chances against righties so long as he earns a spot this spring.
Conner Capel, 25, LHH, two minor league options remaining
Capel posted a respectable .264/.364/.422 slash in Triple-A between the Cardinals and the A’s (who claimed him off waivers from St. Louis) in 2022. A 40-plate appearance cup of coffee in Oakland resulted in an eye-popping .371/.425/.600 slash late in the season, though a .423 average on balls in play in that tiny sample had plenty to do with it. Capel’s minor league track record is more solid than standout, but he’s on the 40-man roster and will try to hit his way into an Opening Day roster spot, even if he doesn’t share the recent production and/or prospect pedigree of some of his competitors.
Cal Stevenson, 26, LHH, two minor league options remaining
A thrice-traded former 10th-round pick, Stevenson turned heads with a .322/.413/.529 output in Triple-A last year — his first season in the A’s organization. That came on the heels of his inclusion in the trade sending Christian Bethancourt from Oakland to Tampa Bay, and Stevenson’s overall Triple-A output clocked in at .284/.389/.413 in 307 plate appearances. Stevenson walks at a high clip and has strong bat-to-ball skills, but he’s not a premium defender and has never topped nine home runs in a full season.
Brent Rooker, 28, RHH, one minor league option remaining
The former No. 35 overall pick (Minnesota, 2017), Rooker came to the A’s by way of a waiver claim. Oakland is his fourth team in the past calendar year, as clubs continue to be intrigued by his raw power and minor league production even as injuries and MLB struggles have undercut his appeal. Rooker is a first baseman/left fielder who has a career .274/.387/.590 slash and 62 dingers in 906 Triple-A plate appearances, but he’s mustered tepid .200/.289/.379 line in 270 big league plate appearances. It’s big-time right-handed pop, but Rooker needs to cut back on the 31.9% strikeout rate he’s shown in the Majors.
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Given the slate of options already on the 40-man roster, it’s not a huge surprise that the A’s didn’t add a ton of minor league outfield depth over the winter. Cody Thomas was retained after they passed him through waivers following a DFA, and he’s in camp as a non-roster invitee. Thomas carved up Triple-A pitching in 2021 but missed nearly all of 2022 on the injured list. If he can get back to that ’21 form (.289/.363/.665), he could get another look in 2023. Meanwhile, old friend Greg Deichmann is back in the organization on his own minor league deal after scuffling in his lone full season with the Cubs (who acquired him in the 2021 trade that sent Andrew Chafin from Chicago to Oakland).
Looking just at the names on the 40-man roster, there are clearly far more bodies than at-bats to go around. The A’s are somewhat handcuffed by Pache’s lack of options, so he seems likely to make the roster and occupy at least a part-time role. Both Ruiz and Bleday are clearly viewed as potential outfield regulars by the Athletics’ front office, though neither is a necessary lock to break camp on the active roster (even if they’ll surely be given every opportunity to do so). The A’s are the perfect club to carry someone like Noda — a polished upper-minors hitter who can’t be optioned given his Rule 5 status — but they’ll need to also get Kemp and Brown sufficient at-bats (particularly if the goal is ultimately to trade one or both this summer).
Each of Capel, Stevenson and Rooker could factor into plans as well, though that trio ostensibly feels more like upper-minors depth or perhaps part-time options off the bench. On many clubs, playing time with this type of saturated outfield mix would boil down to a meritocracy, but the rebuilding A’s can and likely will be more patient with out-of-options players, Rule 5 selections and hopeful summer trade chips.
It’s a fluid situation, one without clear answers. An ideal situation would see Laureano, Brown and Kemp play well enough to be traded for decent returns, while Pache takes enough of a step forward to hold down center field as Ruiz and Bleday emerge as viable options on either side of him (all while Noda hits enough to seize the first base job). Things rarely work out so smoothly for any club, however. The A’s badly need some of their newly acquired outfield talent to pan out, though, as last offseason’s slate of trades did little to improve the long-term outlook. How they allot playing time on the path to reaching that end goal will be one of the key stories to monitor for A’s fans this year.
Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels
Instead of the big splashes they sought in previous offseasons, the Angels opted to spread their resources around to various mid-market additions. When combined with the star power already present on the roster, the club is in good position to be competitive for 2023, though they will have to avoid falling short of expectations again. Beyond this year, there is much uncertainty. Owner Arte Moreno is no longer pursuing a sale of the club, but Shohei Ohtani‘s free agency is now just about eight months away.
Major League Signings
- LHP Tyler Anderson: three years, $39MM
- IF/OF Brandon Drury: two years, $17MM
- RHP Carlos Estévez: two years, $13.5MM
- LHP Matt Moore: one year, $7.55MM
- OF Brett Phillips: one year, $1.2MM
- RHP Justin Garza, one year, non-guaranteed split contract
2022 spending: $37MM
Total spending: $78.25MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades And Claims
- Acquired INF Gio Urshela from Twins for RHP Alejandro Hidalgo.
- Acquired OF Hunter Renfroe from Brewers for LHP Adam Seminaris and RHPs Janson Junk and Elvis Peguero.
Extensions
- None
Notable Minor League Signees
- Ryan Aguilar, Aaron Whitefield, Nash Walters, Jake Lamb, Jhonathan Diaz, Jacob Webb, Jonathan Holder, Chad Wallach, Chris Devenski, César Valdez, Fernando Romero, Kevin Padlo, José Godoy, Cam Vieaux, Gerardo Reyes, Luis Barrera, Taylor Jones
Notable Losses
- Michael Lorenzen, Archie Bradley, Touki Toussaint, Matt Duffy, Kurt Suzuki (retired), Hidalgo, Seminaris, Junk, Peguero, Oliver Ortega, Rob Zastryzny
The Angels have made plenty of big splashes over the past decade or so, signing marquee players like Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon and Josh Hamilton, as well as acquiring and extending Justin Upton. When combined with Mike Trout and Ohtani, there’s been no shortage of stars in Anaheim. But a lack of depth for injuries has often prevented the club from capitalizing on all that talent. Their last winning season was 2015 and their last postseason appearance was the year prior to that. This offseason, they seemed to try a different tack, signing three different players to modest multi-year deals, as well as a few one-year contracts and trades for players with one year of remaining control.
The first significant move was signing left-hander Tyler Anderson. The 33-year-old was hurt for much of the early part of his career, only reaching the 115-inning mark once by the end of 2020. He then had a healthy and decent season in 2021, posting a 4.53 ERA over 167 innings between the Pirates and Mariners. After signing with the Dodgers for 2022, he went on to have easily the best season of his career. He logged 178 2/3 innings, a career high, and also got his ERA all the way down to 2.57. His 19.5% strikeout rate and 40.1% ground ball rate were both a few ticks shy of average, but he kept runners off the basepaths with a tiny 4.8% walk rate.
Based on that strong season, the Dodgers extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to him. That must have proved pretty tempting for Anderson, considering he made $8MM in 2022 and was never higher than $2.5MM in any season prior to that. However, before his decision window was even up, the Angels swooped in and gave him a three-year, $39MM deal. That was a big development for the club, as the last time they gave a multi-year deal to a free-agent starter was a two-year deal for Joe Blanton going into 2013. There’s some risk here for the Angels, as Anderson’s track record of success is not long. He was also likely helped by a .256 batting average on balls in play last year, but his 3.31 FIP and 4.04 SIERA still indicate he’s a fine addition to the middle of their rotation.
The starting rotation has often been one of the weaker points of the roster in Anaheim, though that might not be the case this year. The club had some young pitchers take steps forward last year and seem positioned to go into 2023 on strong footing there. Back in September, MLBTR’s Steve Adams looked at the developments of lefties Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez. Sandoval finished the year with a 2.91 ERA over 27 starts, Suarez a 3.96 over 20 starts and two relief outings, and Detmers a 3.77 ERA over 25 starts.
Those three lefties figure to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation alongside Anderson and Ohtani, giving them a solid front five. The club has gone with a six-man rotation in recent years in order to lighten Ohtani’s overall workload, but that might not be the case this year. Manager Phil Nevin recently suggested they could go with a five-man group for much of the year, only occasionally leaning on a swingman when needed. Ohtani had Tommy John in October 2018, which wiped out his 2019 and most of his 2020. He got up to 130 1/3 innings in 2021 and then 166 last year. Perhaps he could push himself even farther this year, lessening the need for a strict sixth starter. Pitcher injuries are fairly inevitable, however, and the club will eventually need to turn to another starter. Options on the 40-man include Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth and Chris Rodriguez.
In addition to adding Anderson to the rotation, the club also bolstered its bullpen with right-hander Carlos Estévez and left-hander Matt Moore. Estévez has been on a good run over the past four years, outside of a rough showing in the shortened 2020 season. Since the start of 2019, he’s made 223 appearances with a 4.28 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 38.4% ground ball rate. Considering he played his home games at Coors Field and posted a 7.50 ERA in 2020, that’s a pretty good stretch on the whole, and the velocity on his heater and woeful results against his offspeed pitches in 2022 could point to further upside.
As for Moore, his attempts to continue as a starter didn’t go well in recent years, posting an overall 5.26 ERA from 2015 to 2021. But a full-time move to the bullpen last year seemed to suit him, as he tossed 74 innings with a 1.95 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate. He likely won’t sustain a .257 batting average on balls in play or 81.1% strand rate, but his 2.98 FIP and 3.69 SIERA still point to a solid season overall.
Estévez might jump into the closer’s role that was vacated when the Halos dealt Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta at last year’s deadline. However, he could have some competition from Jimmy Herget, who seemed to have a breakout last year. Herget took over the closer’s role with Iglesias gone, finishing the year with nine saves and a 2.48 ERA. Estévez, Herget and Moore should be joined at the back end of the club’s bullpen by veteran holdovers Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup.
On the position player side of things, the Angels made three key upgrades. Gio Urshela was added to the infield, Hunter Renfroe to the outfield, while Brandon Drury can potentially help in both areas. Urshela was acquired from the Twins so that Minnesota can make way for younger players like José Miranda. He struggled in 2021 but has been an above-average hitter in three of the past four years. In 2022, Urshela hit 13 home runs and slashed .285/.338/.429 for a wRC+ of 119. He mostly played third base but has also seen some brief time at the other infield positions in his career. He’ll allow the club to manage Rendon’s workload after he has missed significant time over the past two years.
If both players are healthy and productive, perhaps Urshela is moved around the diamond. First base is a bit of a question mark right now after Jared Walsh required surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome last year. The middle infield is also a bit uncertain based on 2022. Luis Rengifo was slightly above average at the plate but was graded poorly on defense at both middle infield spots. David Fletcher was the opposite, getting good marks for his glovework but suffering through a rough year at the plate.
Urshela could potentially take some playing time away from any of those players, as could Drury. The well-traveled utilityman has occasionally shown flashes of talent throughout his career but could never quite put it together, often due to injuries. However, 2022 was the year everything finally clicked for Drury. Between the Reds and the Padres, he hit 28 home runs and produced a .263/.320/.492 batting line for a 123 wRC+. He also continued to be incredibly versatile, spending time at all four infield positions. He only had one inning in the outfield last year but has a tally of 965 2/3 frames out there in his career. The middle infield picture is murky but they have six players for four spots on the infield overall in Rendon, Walsh, Drury, Urshela, Fletcher and Rengifo. Even if a couple of them are hurt or underperforming, they could still be okay given that most of them can play multiple positions. Walsh could also spend some time in the outfield, if need be.
Speaking of the outfield, the club parted with Brandon Marsh at last year’s deadline and saw continued struggles from Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak. They already had two spots spoken for with Trout and Taylor Ward, but added a third reliable option in Renfroe. His power is his only standout tool but he’s certainly strong in that department. He’s hit 60 home runs over the past two seasons, while providing defense around an average level. His walk and strikeout rates have also been roughly in line with league averages. He’ll add some thump to the lineup without really hurting elsewhere.
Between Anderson, Estévez, Moore, Urshela, Drury and Renfroe, the club has supplemented their rotation, bullpen, infield and outfield. On the whole, it’s a nice series of additions that don’t totally remake the club but nonetheless decreases the chance of a few injuries totally tanking the season. They’ve also made few long-term commitments, as Anderson’s deal is the longest at three years. Drury and Estévez are on the books through 2024 while Moore, Urshela and Renfroe are all impending free agents. The acquisition costs for both Urshela and Renfroe were low because of their limited control and arbitration salaries around the eight-figure mark. They also added Brett Phillips on a one-year deal to serve as an outfielder who can provide some speed and defense off the bench.
One area of the roster the club didn’t address was catcher. They were linked to Willson Contreras in the offseason before he signed with the Cardinals, but they ultimately decided to stick with in-house options. The primary candidates for big league playing time are Max Stassi and Logan O’Hoppe. Stassi has been considered a strong defender behind the plate and seemed to take a step forward with the bat over 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, he took a big step back last year, hitting .180/.267/.303. His strong run in the previous two years landed him an extension that runs through 2024, but he’ll now have to jockey for playing time with O’Hoppe. The youngster came over from the Phillies in the Marsh trade and had a tremendous season. Between the two organizations, he hit .283/.416/.544 in Double-A last year for a 159 wRC+. He still has no Triple-A experience, but O’Hoppe was a top-100 prospect who got a major league call-up late last year and seems poised to stick in the big leagues. Should he struggle and require some more time in the minors, the Angels also have Matt Thaiss on the 40-man and some non-roster invitees.
All in all, the Angels are going into the season with no glaring holes. There’s some uncertainty here and there, but many fallback options all over what looks to be a deep roster. The greater uncertainty is when looking at things from a distance. Owner Arte Moreno announced in August that he would explore a sale of the team, but then a further announcement in January revealed he had backed off of that pursuit. That gets rid of the uncertainty about the ownership question but that development hasn’t been viewed favorably by all, as Moreno is a divisive figure among the club’s fans. On the one hand, he’s frequently signed off on aggressive payrolls as the club aims to build a competitive teaam around Trout. On the other hand, he has a reputation for meddling in baseball decisions in a way that hasn’t served the club well.
The plan for the manager’s chair will also have to be figured out going forward. Joe Maddon was fired in June. Phil Nevin took over an interim basis and inked a one-year extension in October, so he’ll stick around for 2023. The club was for sale at that time and it was seen by many as a stopgap hire, with a more long-term plan getting kicked down the road until a new owner was in place, either with Nevin or some other skipper. Now that the sale is off, the Angels will have to figure out if Nevin is their guy or if they feel the need to look elsewhere.
The Angels will surely be hoping that this is the year Trout and Ohtani finally get to play in the playoffs together, but it won’t be a cakewalk. They are still looking up at the reigning World Series champion Astros as the heavyweight in the division. On top of that, the Mariners are fresh off breaking their own postseason drought, while the Rangers have been incredibly aggressive in their own attempts to return to contention.
If things don’t go according to plan and the Angels fall shy of contention yet again, they would be positioned to reload for the future in a big way at the deadline. As mentioned, Renfroe, Urshela and Moore are all impending free agents, as is Tepera and, of course, Ohtani. If he were to be made available, he would be among the most attractive deadline trade candidates in history. The club could always sign him to an extension that locks him up for the rest of his career, but there’s been little to suggest such a deal is close to a reality. The two-way superstar has expressed his desire to win, and a strong season from the club could potentially increase the chances of keeping him around. However, by the time that comes to fruition, he would be so close to the open market that it would likely be harder to pull him back from the brink.
The Angels did a lot of good things to patch up their roster for 2023, but the future still seems uncertain. The upcoming campaign could be a huge pivot point for the franchise.
How would you grade the Angels’ offseason? (Link to poll)
How would you grade the Angels' offseason?
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B 51% (1,317)
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C 24% (633)
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A 15% (398)
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D 6% (164)
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F 3% (87)
Total votes: 2,599
In conjunction with the Angels’ Offseason In Review, we held a team-specific chat on March 2. Click here to read the transcript.
The Red Sox’s Catching Question
For the first time in a half-decade, the Red Sox enter a season with questions about who’ll take the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate. Christian Vázquez has been their Opening Day starter in each of the last five years. His trade to Houston at last summer’s deadline and subsequent three-year free agent signing with the Twins ensures Boston will have to find a new solution in 2023.
The Sox currently have just two catchers on their 40-man roster. Boston brought in Reese McGuire in a trade with the White Sox just hours after shipping Vázquez out last August. The former first-round draftee finished the season well, hitting .337/.377/.500 with a trio of home runs in 36 games with Boston. It was an excellent first impression for the 27-year-old (28 tomorrow) but an outlier in the broader context of his career. In 566 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and White Sox prior to the trade, McGuire had hit .241/.286/.359 with only nine longballs.
McGuire hasn’t had many consistent opportunities to get into a groove against MLB pitching. Before last season, he’d never appeared in even half a team’s games. He’s generally had a strong defensive reputation, though. McGuire has rated as an above-average pitch framer in each of the past two seasons, per Statcast. In just under 1600 career innings behind the dish, he’s thrown out a very strong 31.4% of would-be basestealers.
Connor Wong looks like the early favorite to split time with McGuire at Fenway Park. The other catcher on the 40-man, he’s only played in 33 big league games over the past two seasons. Part of the Mookie Betts trade return from the Dodgers, the 26-year-old Wong has put up an impressive .276/.327/.471 line in 131 games for Triple-A Worcester. That included a particularly strong .288/.349/.489 showing with 15 homers across 355 plate appearances for the WooSox last season.
There’s reason for optimism regarding both McGuire and Wong, though there’s obvious risk in relying on either as a regular considering neither have proven themselves over a full season against MLB competition. McGuire hits left-handed and Wong swings from the right side. That’d seemingly raise the possibility of mixing and matching based on pitcher handedness, though manager Alex Cora pushed back against that this afternoon. “It’s not a strict platoon situation,” Cora said (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe). “Wong can hit righties, too, and Reese can hit lefties. We’ll see how we do it. We’ll see what the roster is and we’ll make decisions.”
The Sox shied away from any significant catching additions this offseason. Boston didn’t add anyone on a major league free agent deal or via trade. Former Marlin and Padre Jorge Alfaro was brought aboard via non-roster pact. Alfaro brings some more experience to camp and looks like the top depth option in the organization. That he was limited to minor league offers this winter hints at the strikeout and defensive questions that have dogged him throughout his career. Alfaro is a .256/.305/.396 hitter with a 34.1% strikeout rate in parts of seven MLB campaigns. He has excellent arm strength but typically posts below-average marks as a receiver.
Former top prospect Ronaldo Hernández and Caleb Hamilton, claimed off waivers from the Twins at the start of the offseason, are also in the organization as non-roster players. Each has upper level experience but has gone unclaimed on waivers this winter and seems clearly behind McGuire and Wong on the roster.
It’s possible Boston looks to augment the catching depth before Opening Day, perhaps by targeting a veteran currently on a minor league deal elsewhere but who doesn’t crack an MLB roster. The Guardians, as one example, have each of Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria and Zack Collins on non-roster pacts battling for a backup job this spring. Gary Sánchez is the top remaining free agent catcher. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week the Red Sox hadn’t had any contact with their longtime division rival.
The Braves’ Fifth Starter Competition
Coming off a 101-win campaign, the Braves again look like one of the top teams in the National League. There aren’t many areas of concern on the roster. On the position player side, all but shortstop and left field have established solutions who should play at somewhere between an above-average and star level if healthy. The bullpen is one of the sport’s best, and the top four starters of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is elite.
There is a little bit of uncertainty as to who’ll round out the starting staff, however. Atlanta has a handful of pitchers vying for the final rotation spot in Spring Training. A couple have had some big league success but struggled with underperformance or injury recently. Another is a less proven, younger talent.
At this time a year ago, it’d have seemed foolish to picture Anderson fighting for a rotation spot at any point in the near future. Heading into 2022, the former third overall pick carried a 3.25 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate in 30 career regular season starts. He’d twice excelled on the postseason stage. Anderson looked like an upper mid-rotation arm, a key starter both in the present and over the coming seasons.
The 2022 campaign was the first in which the righty ran into trouble. He made 22 big league starts but allowed five earned runs per nine innings across 111 2/3 frames. Anderson’s strikeout rate fell to a personal-low 19.7% clip, although he still picked up swinging strikes on an above-average 12.3% of his total offerings. While he did a solid job keeping the ball on the ground, he surrendered a little more hard contact than he had in prior seasons. Anderson also walked a career-high 11% of opposing hitters.
With Atlanta in the thick of a division race, they optioned the struggling Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett in early August. He started four games there, posting similar numbers as he had in the majors. His season was cut short when he strained his left oblique in the middle of September.
Anderson is just 24 years old and certainly capable of bouncing back from the down year. His average fastball velocity was down marginally last year but still checked in at a solid 94 MPH. He owns one of the game’s better changeups. Anderson’s curveball was a little less effective, with the lack of an impact breaking ball contributing to a disappointing .313/.375/.511 line in 253 plate appearances against same-handed hitters last season. Anderson told reporters last week he’s working on a new slider to try to add a weapon to deal with righty batters (link via David O’Brien of the Athletic).
A fifth-round pick out of Texas in 2020, Elder flew through the minor leagues. He was in the majors by April of his second full professional season. The 6’2″ righty started nine of his first ten MLB contests, posting a 3.17 ERA through 54 innings. That came with strikeout and walk numbers each a bit worse than league average (20.7% and 10.1%, respectively) but a quality 49.3% ground-ball percentage.
He had a longer run in Gwinnett, starting 17 of 18 games. Elder’s 4.46 ERA in 105 Triple-A innings wasn’t as impressive as his MLB run prevention mark, but his peripherals were stronger across the board. He punched out 22.2% of opponents, kept walks to a 7.3% clip and racked up grounders at a 55.9% rate.
The 23-year-old isn’t overpowering, averaging only 90.7 MPH on his sinker during his MLB action. He consistently kept the ball down in the minor leagues, though, posting grounder numbers on over half the batted balls he allowed at every stop. Elder almost carried that over against big league competition in his first crack and should some aptitude for avoiding hard contact — thanks in large part to a cutter and slider he was comfortable deploying against lefties and righties alike.
Soroka, another ground-ball specialist, was one of the sport’s top young pitchers not too long ago. An All-Star at 21, he finished sixth in NL Cy Young balloting after posting a 2.68 ERA through 28 starts as a rookie in 2019. That came on the strength of an excellent 51.2% grounder percentage and tiny 5.8% walk rate, with Soroka demonstrating rare polish for a pitcher his age.
Unfortunately, a brutal series of injuries has limited him to three big league outings since then. Those came in the abbreviated 2020 season before he blew out his right Achilles. After a year of rehab, the same thing happened again shortly before he could make his return to a mound. He lost all of 2021 and almost all of ’22 recovering. Soroka returned from the injured list to start five Triple-A games late last year but felt some soreness in his elbow — not unexpected for a pitcher coming off such a long layoff — and was shut down for precautionary reasons.
While the Achilles and elbow concerns are hopefully behind him, Soroka has again been slowed up by his body this spring. He experienced some hamstring soreness that’ll delay his getting into Spring Training games for a few weeks. It’s not believed to be a major concern, but the righty candidly called it “a kick in the groin” given how much work he’s put in rehabbing from other injuries the past few seasons. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to fully build up for Opening Day.
Other Possibilities
It looks as if the early battle for the fifth starter job comes down to one of the three pitchers above (with Soroka perhaps behind the others given his hamstring issue). However, a few others could find themselves in position to vie for reps at some point during the season, particularly if one or two of Atlanta’s top four starters suffers an injury.
Kolby Allard, a former Braves first-round pick, was acquired back from the Rangers at the start of the winter for Jake Odorizzi. He has a 6.07 ERA in 65 big league contests but occupies a 40-man roster spot. The same is true of Darius Vines, whose contract was selected at the start of the offseason to keep him from the Rule 5 draft. He’s never pitched in the majors but posted a 3.95 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate over 20 Double-A starts to earn a late-season bump to Gwinnett.
Former Cubs righty Matt Swarmer signed a minor league deal over the weekend and is in camp as a non-roster invitee. 2020 first-rounder Jared Shuster had an impressive start at Double-A before a more average performance in Gwinnett last season. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster and one of the better prospects in a now-thin Atlanta farm system.
Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks went into the offseason marketing a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders. After a few months of rumors, they pulled off their anticipated massive swap, landing one of the sport’s best catching prospects in the process. That was the biggest move, though the Snakes also supplemented their position player mix and made a trio of additions to the relief corps as they push for legitimate playoff contention.
Major League Signings
- LHP Andrew Chafin: One year, $6.25MM (including buyout of 2024 club option)
- RHP Scott McGough: Two years, $6.25MM (including buyout of 2025 mutual option)
- 3B Evan Longoria: One year, $4MM
- RHP Zach Davies: One year, $4MM (including buyout of 2024 mutual option)
- RHP Miguel Castro: One year, $3.25MM (deal includes vesting/player option for 2024)
Option Decisions
- Team declined $4MM option on RHP Ian Kennedy in favor of $250K buyout
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RHP Tyler Zuber off waivers from Royals (later outrighted to Triple-A)
- Claimed RHP Cole Sulser off waivers from Marlins
- Acquired RHP Carlos Vargas from Guardians for minor league RHP Ross Carver
- Acquired DH Kyle Lewis from Mariners for LF Cooper Hummel
- Claimed C Ali Sánchez off waivers from Pirates (later outrighted to Triple-A)
- Acquired SS Diego Castillo from Pirates for minor league RHP Scott Randall
- Acquired C Gabriel Moreno and LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. from Blue Jays for RF Daulton Varsho
Notable Minor League Signings
- Austin Adams, Jesse Biddle, Austin Brice, Sam Clay, Phillip Evans, Ryan Hendrix, Jeurys Familia, Jandel Gustave, Jake Hager, P.J. Higgins, Zach McAllister, Yairo Muñoz, Eric Yardley
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Varsho, Caleb Smith, Jordan Luplow, Kennedy, Hummel, Sergio Alcántara, Sean Poppen, Taylor Widener, Stone Garrett, Keynan Middleton, Edwin Uceta, Reyes Moronta, Tyler Holton, Yonny Hernández, J.B. Bukauskas
The past few seasons haven’t gone well for the Diamondbacks. Arizona limped to last-place finishes in 2020-21, followed by a fourth-place showing last year. They partially compensated with a run of what appear to be strong draft classes. They never intended to enter a rebuild but the past few seasons have essentially functioned as such.
Over the final few months of last season, the young talent the organization had built in the pipeline began to translate to improved MLB results. Arizona was a roughly league average team in the second half, still shy of contention but quite a bit better than their previous few seasons. General manager Mike Hazen and his front office headed into the offseason with more clarity about the team’s strengths and weaknesses.
No spot on the roster was a more obvious plus than the outfield. Arizona had seen Daulton Varsho emerge as a productive regular. Top prospect Corbin Carroll debuted in late August and hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Jake McCarthy posted an impressive .283/.342/.427 showing in 99 games during his first extended big league action. Alek Thomas didn’t have the same level of success, though he’s highly regarded by prospect evaluators for his contact skills and center field defense.
Hazen indicated the team would field offers on that outfield glut, with four interesting and controllable left-handed bats who could appeal to other teams. Adding right-handed balance to the lineup and potentially upgrading over Carson Kelly at catcher were highlighted as priorities, while the front office implied they’d scour numerous avenues to upgrade a bullpen that was again among the league’s worst.
By and large, Arizona eventually checked off every item on that to-do list. The most straightforward path to achieving their position player ends would be to bring in a right-handed catcher with plus offensive upside. Arizona was unsurprisingly connected to Sean Murphy before the A’s sent him to Atlanta. While they missed out on Murphy, the Snakes eventually pulled off their catching addition in that long-awaited trade of an outfielder.
Varsho was the player who ended up the odd man out. A Gold Glove caliber defender who hit 27 home runs in 2022, he was one of the most appealing targets on this offseason’s trade market considering his four remaining seasons of arbitration control. The outfield-needy Blue Jays always looked like a strong on-paper fit considering their surplus of right-handed hitting catchers. Toronto had seemed likely to move one of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or top prospect Gabriel Moreno for some time, and things finally coalesced just before Christmas.
The D-Backs sent Varsho to Toronto for Moreno and corner outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Controllable for six seasons, Moreno is one of the game’s top young catching talents. He hit .315/.386/.420 with a meager 16.9% strikeout rate in 267 Triple-A plate appearances at age 22 last season. That earned him a brief MLB look, in which he posted a .319/.356/.377 line with only eight strikeouts in 73 trips to the dish.
There’s some question about how much power impact Moreno will make, but he’s an elite contact hitter with no concerns about his ability to stick behind the plate. Even if he only hits 10 home runs annually, his high batting averages and on-base numbers should make him one of the game’s best offensive catchers. He’ll push Kelly into a reserve role.
While Moreno was the key piece of the deal on Arizona’s end, they somewhat backfilled the outfield subtraction with Gurriel’s inclusion. While he’s certainly a downgrade from Varsho — particularly on defense — Gurriel is a low-variance everyday player. He’s coming off a .291/.343/.400 showing in 121 games. He only connected on five home runs during his final season in Toronto but has twice reached the 20-homer plateau in his career.
Gurriel offers above-average contact skills and typically shows decent power. He rarely walks and is limited to the corner outfield or DH after an early-career experiment in the infield didn’t pan out. While he’s a flawed player, Gurriel can hit and adds another right-handed presence to the lineup. He’s headed into the final season of his contract and will be a free agent at year’s end, meaning he’d be a straightforward trade candidate if the D-Backs aren’t contending midseason.
He’s not the only right-handed hitting outfielder the Snakes brought in via trade. Before the Varsho swap, Arizona rolled the dice on 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. It was a one-for-one deal that sent catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel to Seattle. Lewis has had a disastrous past couple seasons, with persistent right knee issues keeping him to just 54 combined games since the start of 2021. A former first-round pick and top prospect, Lewis hit .262/.364/.437 for Seattle during the shortened season. His health has been a question mark since he tore his ACL in a home plate collision within months of being drafted. Still, Lewis remains just 27 years old and won’t be counted upon for everyday work in the Arizona outfield.
Gurriel and Lewis provide matchup options in right field and at DH. Left field belongs to Carroll, who is a consensus top three prospect. Arizona has already looked into the possibility of extending him beyond his allotted six seasons of control in what could be one of the club’s more interesting storylines this spring. Thomas and McCarthy can each play center field, with the latter assured of regular run somewhere after his quality debut campaign.
The D-Backs added another righty-swinging designated hitter option via free agency. 15-year MLB veteran Evan Longoria signed a $4MM deal to split time between third base and DH. He’s obviously no longer the star he was at his peak, but Longoria has continued to hit at an above-average level into his late-30s. Injuries have cost him almost half the last two seasons. He’s best suited for a part-time or platoon role at this stage of his career and that’s likely to be the capacity in which he operates.
Left-handed hitting Josh Rojas should get the lion’s share of at-bats at the hot corner. Rojas is a good hitter with some defensive flexibility but isn’t a great gloveman anywhere. He’s an adequate if below-average third baseman, and his contact and baserunning skills make him a solid player overall.
He’ll presumably be playing alongside Nick Ahmed on most days. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Ahmed is still one of the sport’s preeminent defensive infielders. He’s never contributed much offensively and lost virtually all of 2022 to shoulder surgery. Arizona at least monitored the market for shortstop upgrades — including a loose link to Xander Bogaerts that always felt like a long shot — but ultimately completed the offseason without an addition there. Ahmed will be back and should take the job from Geraldo Perdomo, who didn’t perform well over a long look with Ahmed out last season. Still just 23, Perdomo could be in line for more time at Triple-A.
The other side of the second base bag is clearly defined. Ketel Marte will be back at the keystone. Christian Walker had a massive second half performance to seize hold of first base. Arizona brought in Diego Castillo in a minor trade with Pittsburgh to add some insurance in the middle infield. He figures to start the season in a utility role or in the minors.
Arizona took a volume approach to address their other offseason priority: the bullpen. They eschewed the top of the free agent market and brought in half of what figures to be their Opening Day group via lower-cost means. They started by claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins, taking a buy-low flier on a pitcher who’d found success with Baltimore in 2021 before a disappointing year in South Florida.
That was followed by a series of value plays in free agency. Veteran righty Miguel Castro inked a one-year, $3.75MM guarantee with a ’24 vesting/player option. He’s a generally stable middle relief option, a pitcher who typically works to an ERA around 4.00 with solid strikeout and grounder rates but wobbly control. A couple weeks later, Arizona took a more unexpected dice roll on 33-year-old Scott McGough. The right-hander has just six MLB appearances — all of which came with the 2015 Marlins — and has spent the last four years in Japan. He posted a 2.94 ERA in 232 2/3 innings over four seasons with NPB’s Yakult Swallows and evidently impressed Arizona evaluators along the way.
McGough proved to be the organization’s only multi-year free agent signee of the offseason. His two-year, $6.25MM pact is still a relatively low-risk move, though it’s tough to project whether he can take on high-leverage innings in Torey Lovullo’s bullpen until seeing him against big league competition for the first time in almost a decade.
There shouldn’t be any such questions regarding Arizona’s final bullpen addition. Old friend Andrew Chafin looked like one of the top left-handed relief arms on the free agent market. He opted out of the final $6.5MM on his contract with the Tigers and seemed likely to find a strong multi-year pact after a second straight excellent season. For whatever reason, that apparently never materialized. Chafin lingered alongside a handful of other quality southpaws deep into the offseason until Arizona swooped in with a $6.25MM guarantee. The D-Backs also secured a 2024 option on what looks like a strong deal for the club, one that reinstalls a familiar face into key late-inning work.
Chafin, Castro, Sulser and McGough are presumably all going to open the season in the MLB bullpen. They’ll join left-hander Joe Mantiply, who had a breakout 2022 showing. Righty Kevin Ginkel presumably has a middle innings job secured after a quietly strong finish to the ’22 season. Mark Melancon is headed into the second season of a two-year free agent deal that didn’t pan out as hoped in year one. He’s no longer assured of the closer’s role; Lovullo has already indicated he could take a committee approach to the ninth inning early in the season (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Still, Melancon will presumably be on the roster in some capacity as the team looks for a bounceback from the four-time All-Star.
That only leaves a spot or two in the early going for depth types like Kyle Nelson, Corbin Martin, trade acquisition Carlos Vargas or non-roster Spring Training invitees like Jeurys Familia, Austin Brice, Austin Adams, Jandel Gustave, Ryan Hendrix and Sam Clay. There’ll obviously be some attrition in that group — injuries, workload management or underperformance will necessitate changes to the bullpen mix throughout the coming months — but the organization has stockpiled a little more relief depth than they’ve had in prior seasons.
The D-Backs didn’t need to do as much to build out the starting staff. Zac Gallen is a legitimate #1 starter. There’s no indication the sides have discussed an extension. It wouldn’t be surprising if the front office gauged his interest in signing beyond his remaining three years of arbitration control at some point. Merrill Kelly is a solid mid-rotation type behind him, even if his lack of swing-and-miss stuff could make it difficult to sustain a 3.37 ERA. There’s not a ton of certainty behind that duo, though the Snakes have a handful of options who could fill out the back of the staff. Zach Davies had a fine if unexciting season at the back of the rotation last year. He’s back after re-signing on a modest $4MM free agent deal and will hold one of the season-opening rotation spots.
Madison Bumgarner had similar production as Davies last season, albeit at a much higher price point. His five-year, $85MM free agent contract has been a major disappointment. Bumgarner has been a durable source of innings but hasn’t come close to reestablishing himself as the top-of-the-rotation starter he was throughout his time in San Francisco. In October, Hazen implied that Bumgarner’s veteran status would get him another shot in the rotation but indicated the club could eventually go in another direction as performance dictates.
Whether that happens might depend as much on Arizona’s younger pitchers than on Bumgarner himself. Righties Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson look set to battle for the fifth spot this spring after each debuted late last season. Brandon Pfaadt has yet to reach the majors but is arguably more highly-regarded by evaluators than either Nelson or Jameson are. He pitched very well over ten Triple-A starts to close out last season and could be on the radar for a big league call early in the upcoming campaign. Tommy Henry and former high draft choices Blake Walston and Slade Cecconi headline the depth options behind that group.
There’s room for the club to still look into a veteran on a minor league deal to add some stability to the upper levels. Clearly, the main organizational hope is that higher-upside hurlers like Nelson and Pfaadt will perform well enough in the early going to cement themselves in the rotation. Should they do so, that could lead the organization to consider bumping Bumgarner or Davies from the group. Early on, however, Arizona figures to retain as much depth as they can given the inherent risk in counting on any pitching prospect to assume a large role on a team with playoff aspirations.
Whether the Diamondbacks have legitimate reason to hope for a postseason spot is debatable. The pitching staff, while improved, still looks a little light relative to those of most contenders. The club has question marks on the left side of the infield, particularly at shortstop. They’re in a gauntlet of a division, one where the ever-competitive Dodgers and ultra aggressive Padres will be projected 1-2 in some order by most observers. Arizona looks to have clearly pulled away from Colorado at the bottom of the division. It remains to be seen whether they can both leapfrog the Giants and hang in the Wild Card mix for a full season.
Even if a playoff berth looks like a long shot, there’s more reason for immediate optimism than has existed in some time. The core of the next competitive Arizona team is beginning to take shape, and the farm system should remain among the league’s best even after Moreno and Carroll graduate. Top prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones are still a few seasons out, but it’s easy for the organization and its fans to dream about them eventually joining Moreno, Carroll, Marte and perhaps a young pitcher or two in comprising a group that can annually battle the behemoths at the top of the division.
In conjunction with the D-Backs’ Offseason In Review, Anthony Franco held a team-specific chat on March 2. Click here to view the transcript.
How would you grade the D-Backs offseason? (poll link for app users)
How would you grade the Diamondbacks' offseason?
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B 42% (488)
-
C 33% (380)
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D 11% (126)
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A 10% (121)
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F 4% (51)
Total votes: 1,166
MLBTR Poll: Will Bryan Reynolds’ Situation Be Resolved Before Opening Day?
Bryan Reynolds trade rumors have lingered over the offseason, even as there’s been nothing to indicate the Pirates have gotten seriously into discussions with any other club. As an All-Star player on a rebuilding team, Reynolds has drawn plenty of trade attention over the last couple years. The Bucs have steadfastly maintained a high asking price.
Against the backdrop of speculation has been the seeming stalemate between Reynolds and the Pirates in extension negotiations. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported over the weekend the club had offered $80MM over six years. With Reynolds eligible for arbitration through 2025, such a deal would’ve bought out three free agent seasons. According to Mackey, Reynolds’ camp had countered at $134MM over eight seasons. With discussions having stalled out, the 28-year-old requested a trade in December.
The Pirates attested that wouldn’t affect their asking price. That has seemingly borne out in the lack of substantive trade rumors over the nearly three months since then. Reynolds is back in Pirates camp. Both sides have expressed a willingness to reopen talks about an extension that could keep him in the Steel City for the long haul, though as of Saturday, the team hadn’t made a new offer.
The trade market has been dormant for the majority of the offseason. It’s entirely possible no swaps of significant note are made before Opening Day, although there are surely still plenty of teams that’d love to install Reynolds in their lineup. Teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox look likely to roll the dice on unproven options in center field. The Yankees, Braves and Rangers all have a handful of veterans for left field but explored more stable solutions at times this offseason.
Meanwhile, the Bucs and Reynolds’ camp at CAA Sports figure to touch base at some point over the coming weeks to see if they can bridge that reported $54MM gap. The deeper Reynolds gets into his arbitration seasons, the likelier it’d seem to become he prices himself out of the Pirates’ range. Perhaps they’re at that point already — even the organization’s $80MM offer would’ve represented a franchise record investment and was well shy of the asking price — but it seems each side is still amenable to negotiating despite Reynolds’ prior trade request.
Opening Day is a little over a month away. Spring Training is the most common time of year for teams and players to hammer out extensions. That’s often the result of a player setting an Opening Day deadline for those discussions, but Reynolds indicated over the weekend he had no such cutoff.
Will there be a resolution in the coming weeks, or will the uncertainty regarding the Bucs’ star carry into the regular season? Are the Pirates going to make a move with Reynolds before Opening Day: either by pulling off the long-speculated blockbuster or keeping him on a franchise-record contract?
(poll link for app users)
What Will Happen With Bryan Reynolds Before Opening Day?
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Neither; he'll enter the season on his arbitration contract. 80% (4,549)
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Trade. 11% (635)
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Extension. 9% (492)
Total votes: 5,676
Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Mauricio, Vientos, Song, Brown
This week on Big Hype Prospects… baseball is happening, and we are eagerly awaiting the results.
Five BHPs In The News
Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (—)
DNP
Jones is on pace to make his minor league debut this spring. The second overall pick of the 2022 draft, Jones missed the season with a shoulder injury sustained during batting practice. He’s widely considered a Top 25 prospect despite never appearing in a professional game. Like his father Andruw, Jones profiles as a speedy, defensively able center fielder who might grow into serious power within a few years. Andruw Jones debuted as a 19-year-old in 1996 and posted a 31-homer, 27-steal campaign as a 21-year-old in 1998. The younger Jones is unlikely to reach the Majors this year, especially in a system with such an impressive collection of young outfielders. However, he has the traits to explode through the lower levels this season.
Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AA)
541 PA, 26 HR, 20 SB, .259/.296/.472
Mauricio profiles as a volatile prospect, one whose days in the Mets system might be coming to an end. His defensive ability at shortstop is fringy, but it’s the only position at which he has extensive experience. The Mets have opted to keep him at shortstop where he’s blocked long-term by Francisco Lindor. There’s no clearer signal of their intent to trade him (in this writer’s opinion).
As a hitter, Mauricio lacks discipline and breaking ball recognition. Despite a 26/20 campaign, there’s reason to believe his apparent power and speed will play down. For one, he’s not actually fast. He was caught 11 times last season and is 39-for-66 (59%) for his career. Although his max exit velocity would rank among the Top 50 hitters, his unrestrained approach hints at a high bust rate. Mauricio is still a valuable prospect, but he’s not the sort of blue-chip asset teams want for their best trade assets.
Mark Vientos, 23, 1B/3B/DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519
Vientos made modest strides with his plate discipline in the last year. He profiles as a bat-first prospect who is ultimately destined for first base or designated hitter duties. It’s not yet clear if he has enough bat to sustain regular work at those positions. Right-handed hitting first basemen tend to have a high bar to clear. Often, they’ll eventually matriculate, but it can sometimes require a few stops along the way. The Mets’ own Darin Ruf followed this path. C.J. Cron serves as a happier example of this profile. He finally found lasting success with the Rays in his age 28 season after four years of treading water in Los Angeles. Due to his defensive limitations, Vientos has a narrow window to stake any claim to third base reps ahead of Eduardo Escobar or Brett Baty. Pete Alonso is only signed through 2024, and the designated hitter mix led by Daniel Vogelbach isn’t exactly the Mets’ strong suit.
Noah Song, 25, SP, PHI (—)
DNP
They don’t come more mysterious than Song. Once a touted draft prospect who fell due to a military commitment, the Phillies selected Song from the Red Sox in the latest Rule 5 draft. It’s the second time Dave Dombrowski has selected him in a draft. Now cleared for baseball duty, the Phillies will have the challenging task of deciding if he can serve as their eighth reliever. When we last saw him in 2019, Song featured a plus fastball, slider, and curve along with a developing changeup. We don’t know how those pitches grade out today, and I’ve yet to observe him this spring. Assuming the fastball and at least one breaking ball are viable, it’s possible they could hide Song in the bullpen, send him to the minors to stretch out in 2024, then reassess matters from there.
The first step in that chain, carrying Song on the active roster, is a doozy. The Phillies are coming off an improbable NL Championship in which they barely scraped their way into the postseason. All signs point to another uphill battle in 2023. Every roster spot counts. Using one on Song rather than a “proven” option like Bailey Falter could be the difference.
Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA
With Lance McCullers set to miss the start of the season, Brown is expected to make the Astros rotation. We can intuit they’ll carefully manage his workload. In fact, they were already doing so last season. At Triple-A, he made 14 starts with nine relief appearances. The Astros juggled the workloads of Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy in much the same way last season, albeit less obviously. Brown more than held his own in 20.1 Major League innings. He averaged nearly 97-mph with his heater while recording 9.74 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, a 68 percent ground ball rate, and a 0.89 ERA. In the minors, he typically posted just north of a 50 percent ground ball rate. He’s a stuff-over-command starter who might fit best in short bursts.
Three More
Forrest Whitley, HOU (25): One of the options for the fifth starter slot, Whitley managed 40 innings in affiliated ball last season for the first time since 2019. He’s yet to broach 100 innings in a season, making a reliever role likelier if only for workload management purposes. Whitley struggled in his return to Triple-A. He once possessed five above average offerings and an ace-like ceiling.
Ethan Small, MIL (26): Small is a large left-handed changeup specialist with shaky command. Used as a starter throughout his four-season minor league career, the Brewers have now committed to preparing him as a reliever. This is his best opportunity to contribute in the short term. Even with Aaron Ashby sidelined, the Brewers have six quality starting pitchers on the big league staff.
Drew Gilbert, HOU (22): A 2022 first-rounder, the left-handed Gilbert dislocated his right elbow in a wall collision. He’s expected to be full health to start the season. A capable center fielder with discipline, contact skills, and non-trivial pop, Gilbert’s performance this season could cement a spot on Top 100 prospect lists. This is also a profile that often falls into a fifth-outfielder bucket. Consistent hard contact could serve as a forward indicator of his career trajectory.