MLBTR Originals

16 Impending Free Agents Off To Slow Starts At The Plate

By Steve Adams | June 2, 2022 at 7:23pm CDT

The Padres cut ties with Robinson Cano this morning, just as the Mets did before them. It was a tougher decision for the Mets, given the financial obligation they have toward Cano through the 2023 season. However, his lack of production and the presence of younger, better options forced the hand of both parties.

We’re coming up on a third of the way through the 2022 season, and it’ll become increasingly difficult for teams with struggling veterans in the Cano mold to continue trotting them out there. That’s especially true of players who are impending free agents. While fans can (and do) disagree with the thinking, a player like Aaron Hicks, whom the Yankees owe $30.5MM from 2023-25, will get a longer leash than an impending free agent due to that multi-year commitment. So while there are plenty of struggling veterans on long-term deals, those with the thinnest grasp on their current roster spots are those who’ll be off the books at season’s end anyhow.

With that in mind, here’s a look at some names to watch and, when applicable, some of the names behind them who could aid in pushing them out the door (all stats entering Thursday’s play):

Carlos Santana, Royals: I’m not sure anyone other than the Royals’ front office understands the thinking behind continuing to trot Santana out to the field at this point. The 36-year-old is hitting .161/.293/.250 through 147 plate appearances, and it’s not as though that enormous slump is an entirely new development. Santana hit just .214/.319/.342 while playing in 158 of 162 games for the Royals last year and .199/.340/.350 in Cleveland during the shortened 2020 season.

Santana’s very presence on the Royals is due to the team’s effort to return to win-now mode after a rebuild focused on drafting college arms. He signed a two-year, $17.5MM contract heading into the 2021 season but hasn’t been able to bounce back to the form that long made him one of the game’s biggest on-base threats and most underrated offensive performers.

Signing Santana might’ve been a “win-now” move, but it’s hard to argue that continuing to run him out there is in the Royals’ best interest. That’s doubly true with top prospects Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino mashing in Triple-A Omaha. Both are in the same first base/designated hitter mold as Santana, and both Pratto (55) and Pasquantino (61) rank prominently in Baseball America’s updated Top 100 prospect rankings. Pratto got off to a slow start but is hitting .246/.392/.483 over his past 148 plate appearances. Pasquantino burst out of the gates and hasn’t slowed down; he’s hitting .298/.392/.667 with 15 home runs in 204 plate appearances.

The Royals owe Santana the balance of his $10.5MM salary whether he’s on the roster or not, but he’ll start racking up incentives when he reaches 300 plate appearances.

Joey Gallo, Yankees: Gallo was one of the Yankees’ biggest trade-deadline additions in recent years, but he’s never found his footing in the Bronx. His status as a three-true-outcomes player is well-documented, but he’s trended more aggressively toward the least-desirable of those outcomes since donning pinstripes. Gallo has fanned in 38% of his plate appearances as a Yankee while seeing both his power and his walk rate dip. Since the Yankees acquired him, he’s batting .167/.295/.370.

Even with the short porch in right field, Gallo has only five home runs through 141 plate appearances this season. He’s also seen his average exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate drop in 2022. Gallo is still making loads of hard contact when he hits the ball in the air, per Statcast, and perhaps that’s helping to keep him both in the lineup and on the roster. New York isn’t getting any real offense from Hicks, Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Kyle Higashioka, however. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are once again on the injured list. Anthony Rizzo had a massive April but is batting just .162/.274/.303 in his past 117 plate appearances. The Yankees’ AL East lead has begun to shrink, as the Jays have rattled off eight straight wins, and they can’t realistically count on Aaron Judge to carry the offense all season long.

Gallo doesn’t have a high-end outfield prospect breathing down his neck, but if he can’t get things going at the plate, the calls for change are only going to grow louder. He’s earning $10.275MM in his final arbitration season before free agency, and another club might view him as a change-of-scenery candidate with the hopes that he’ll be the position-player equivalent of Sonny Gray and thrive following a rocky stint in the Bronx.

Adam Duvall, Braves: Like Gallo, Duvall’s skill set and offensive profile were well established when the Braves opted to retain him via arbitration. He was coming off a 38-homer campaign, so there was never much doubt he’d be tendered a contract, but Duvall’s brand of huge power/bottom-of-the-scale OBP always left him with a pretty low floor should the power ever evaporate.

That’s been the case in 2022, as Duvall still isn’t walking or hitting for average, and he’s only slugged two homers on the season. Paired with a career-worst 31.9% strikeout rate, those troubling trends have resulted in a .191/.257/.272 slash for Duvall, who has also already been tasked with playing more center field in 2022 than he had in his entire career to date.

Atlanta has already called up Michael Harris II, one of the sport’s fastest-rising outfield talents, and former top prospect Drew Waters is at least putting together respectable, if unexciting results in Triple-A. The Braves have also tinkered with catcher William Contreras in the outfield. Duvall has been MLB’s second-worst qualified hitter, by measure of wRC+, and it’s fair to wonder how long the leash will be.

Miguel Sano, Twins: Sano isn’t technically a free agent at season’s end, but barring a Herculean push to finish the season, it’s nearly impossible to fathom the Twins picking up a $14MM option on him. To Sano’s credit, he hit quite well from June through season’s end (.251/.330/.503, 21 homers, 21 doubles in 373 plate appearances), but he looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022 before landing on the injured list due to a torn meniscus. Sano hit just .093/.231/.148 in 65 plate appearances.

When Sano does return, he’ll come back to a retooled roster that has seen versatile Luis Arraez rake while picking up regular at-bats at first base. Former No. 1 pick Royce Lewis is getting looks at third base and in left field — though Lewis is on the 10-day IL himself now — and top outfield/first base prospect Alex Kirilloff is hitting well in Triple-A following his return from a wrist injury.

The Twins can keep Sano in Triple-A for 20 days on rehab assignment when he’s ready, and they may want to do just that to give him a chance to show he can recapture some of his late 2021 form. But the clock on Sano’s three-year, $30MM deal is running out, and the first-place Twins have plenty of options to fill out the lineup. None of them have Sano’s raw power — almost no one in MLB does — but the big man’s ongoing contact issues tend to lead to protracted slumps like the one he slogged through earlier this year. If he can’t turn it around quickly upon his return, it’d be difficult to justify playing him over Arraez, Kirilloff and others.

Enrique Hernandez & Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox: Hernandez was a revelation in 2021 when he smacked 20 homers, hit .250/.337/.449, and delivered all-world defense in center field. But as good as year one of his $14MM contract was, the second and final campaign of that deal has been nightmarish. Hernandez is hitting .203/.269/.340 with a career-low hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He’s still playing great defense in center and helping shoulder the second base workload, but the offensive deficiency is glaring.

That’s also somewhat true of Bradley Jr., who returned to Boston after one ill-fated season in Milwaukee. To Bradley’s credit, he has actually picked up the pace quite a bit, hitting .291/.328/.491 since mid-May, but that surge still only brings his overall season line to .227/.284/.353. If Bradley can sustain some of this production, he’ll surely hang onto his roster spot, but it’s hard not to look at young Jarren Duran’s .309/.391/.523 output in Triple-A and start thinking of ways to insert him into the big league lineup. Duran struggled in his debut last year but is still a touted young prospect whom the Sox envision as a long-term building block.

Hernandez is earning $8MM this season. Bradley is on a $9.5MM salary and is still owed an $8MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season.

Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado & Jason Castro, Astros: Gurriel won a batting title and looked like one of the game’s best pure hitters in 2021, but he’s started his 2022 season with a woeful .223/.261/.361 performance through 176 plate appearances. His strikeout rate is up about four percentage points, while his walk rate has halved and his hard-contact numbers have plummeted. Gurriel is also chasing more pitches off the plate (36.4% in 2022, 29.8% in 2021) and making contact on pitches out of the zone at a far lower rate (74.5% in 2022, 81.9% in 2021).

Houston’s catchers, meanwhile, have been the least-productive in baseball. Maldonado has never been much of a hitter but is batting only .133/.208/.239 this season. Castro hasn’t even been able to match that, batting .104/.228/.146. If catching prospect Korey Lee weren’t enduring immense struggles of his own in Triple-A, a change might’ve already been made.

It seems unlikely that the Astros would cut bait on Gurriel, who’s been a prominent presence and one of the team’s most productive hitters since signing more than a half-decade ago. A reduced role is something they’ll have to consider if he can’t right the ship, however. The catchers seem far more vulnerable, and there figure to be some prominent names available on the trade market (Willson Contreras, most notably). That Houston is leading the AL West by 5.5 games despite having the least-productive catchers (29 wRC+) and 29th-ranked offensive output from its first basemen (74 wRC+) is both a testament to their pitching and indictment on the play of their divisional opponents thus far.

Gurriel is being paid $8MM in 2022, while Maldonado is earning a $5MM salary and Castro is at $3.5MM.

Andrew McCutchen, Brewers: Milwaukee added McCutchen on a one-year, $8MM contract this offseason with the idea of installing him as their primary designated hitter. McCutchen tormented the Brewers during his early years with the Pirates, which included an NL MVP win, but he’s hitting .214/.263/.312 to begin his tenure in Milwaukee. Even McCutchen’s typically outstanding production against lefties has gone up in smoke this year, as he’s managed a .196/.224/.391 slash against them.

Despite McCutchen’s ineffectiveness, the Brewers are leading the Majors in homers (70) and sit fifth in total runs scored (238). But if McCutchen, who’s hitless in six straight and has been 73% worse than average at the plate since a return from the Covid list (27 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances), can’t begin to show some signs of life, the Brewers could be on the lookout for some offensive help as the Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer.

Robbie Grossman & Tucker Barnhart, Tigers: Between Grossman, Austin Meadows and Victor Reyes, the Tigers have an entire outfield on the injured list. Underwhelming play from young options like Daz Cameron, Akil Baddoo and Derek Hill will probably extend Grossman’s leash, but he was hitting a career-worst .199/.311/.241 in 167 plate appearances prior to landing on the IL due to ongoing neck soreness. Grossman has a solid track record, but the Tigers will also want to get a look at top prospect Riley Greene soon, and they’re giving Kody Clemens an opportunity after a nice start down in Toledo.

Behind the plate, the Tigers are probably content with Barnhart’s glovework and leadership. There was talk of a potential extension after he was acquired, but a .229/.263/.257 start might have tempered that. Backup Eric Haase isn’t hitting enough to force a change, and the Tigers’ Triple-A catchers are journeymen Dustin Garneau and Ryan Lavarnway. They have a well-regarded prospect at Double-A in Dillon Dingler, but Barnhart shouldn’t be in imminent danger of losing his spot at this time.

Maikel Franco, Nationals: Franco is probably only in this everyday role because Carter Kieboom suffered an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t done much with his latest opportunity. The former Phillies, Royals and Orioles third baseman is hitting .258/.284/.374 (82 wRC+) through 208 plate appearances. The Nats have an ultra-thin farm system without much in the way of third base options in the upper minors, and they’re clearly not winning anything this year anyhow. That might keep Franco safe, but if an even semi-interesting option presents itself on the waiver wire, there’s little reason not to take a look.

Corey Dickerson, Cardinals: Prior to the 2022 season, Dickerson had never been worse than five percent below-average with the bat in any full year (by wRC+). That’s all but certain to change now, as the typically steady lefty has posted an uncharacteristic .183/.238/.215 slash in 101 plate appearances. For a lifetime .283/.327/.488 hitter who was coming off a solid 2021 campaign, it’s a rather astonishing swoon.

Dickerson has been in a platoon with Albert Pujols at DH for the most part, logging only 110 innings on defense in the outfield corners recently due to injuries elsewhere on the roster. He’s also only on a one-year, $5MM contract, so if he can’t find his swing in the near future, it’s easy to see the Cards giving more at-bats to Pujols’ long-shot chase for 700 home runs and to young standout Juan Yepez. Dickerson is safe for now with both Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson on the injured list, but he needs a hot streak sooner than later.

Mike Zunino, Rays: Zunino’s career-high 33 home runs from a year ago feel like a distant memory, as he’s off to a .147/.193/.294 start in 109 plate appearances in 2022. He’s still drawing excellent marks for his defensive contributions, which the Rays value heavily, but Zunino isn’t even hitting against lefties, whom he’s handled well throughout his career — particularly in recent seasons.

Backup Francisco Mejia isn’t hitting much himself, going just 6-for-42 without a walk over the past month or so. Were he producing at the plate, it’d be more tempting for Tampa Bay to significantly reduce Zunino’s playing time. The Rays do have 25-year-old Rene Pinto mashing in Triple-A, and he’s made his big league debut already this year. As with the Astros, however, the Rays are in firm win-now mode and entered the season with World Series aspirations. If the in-house options aren’t performing up to par, the trade market beckons.

Austin Hedges, Guardians: Hedges has never hit and has always been one of the game’s premier defensive players, so his 2022 season is nothing new. Still, a .155/.223/.282 output from your primary catcher is just difficult to stomach, no matter how strong the defense is. Veteran backup Luke Maile has hit well in a tiny sample of 35 plate appearances, but he’s a career .208/.264/.317 hitter himself.

Prospect Bryan Lavastida got a brief MLB cup of coffee in April and is hitting .225/.330/.360 so far in Triple-A. His performance will bear monitoring, because if the Guardians are intent on pulling into the playoff picture, Hedges’ production might be too light to overlook. And if they end up selling at the deadline, Hedges could draw interest from a team seeking a glove-first backup option — which could open a door for Lavastida.

The Strange Case Of Jurickson Profar

By Darragh McDonald | May 29, 2022 at 8:35pm CDT

To say that Jurickson Profar’s career has been inconsistent would be an understatement. After being signed by the Rangers as an international free agent out of Curacao, he was incredibly impressive in the minors, shooting up to the big leagues, making his MLB debut at the age of 19 towards the end of the 2012 season, hitting a home run in his first major league at-bat and topping prospect lists going into 2013.

In 2013, Profar had a mediocre showing in 85 games, hitting just .234/.308/.336, 75 wRC+. That might have been disappointing based on his prospect hype, but it was certainly understandable given that he was still just 20 years old. Unfortunately, shoulder injuries led to multiple surgeries which wiped out both his 2014 and 2015 seasons. In 2016 and 2017, he was finally healthy but struggled in sporadic MLB playing time. Despite success in the minors, he hit just .227/.316/.315 in 112 games over those two campaigns, producing a wRC+ of 67.

In 2018, he finally got a good stretch of playing time in the big leagues, getting into 146 games after never previously getting above 90. That regularity seemed to do him good, as he hit .254/.335/.458 for a wRC+ of 107, or 7% better than league average. He also stole ten bases and added defensive versatility, lining up at each infield position along with a brief cameo in left field. On the whole, he was worth 1.9 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs.

After being traded to Oakland, his pendulum swung the other way, as he made 11 throwing errors from second base and slumped at the plate to a line of .218/.301/.410, 90 wRC+. The A’s traded him away after that lone season, with the Padres on the receiving end. A.J. Preller, who was with the Rangers when Profar was first signed, had by then become the general manager in San Diego.

Despite Profar’s mercurial career, Preller evidently still believed in the former top prospect, which worked out in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Profar played 56 games in the 60-game season and got his batting line above average again, hitting .278/.343/.438. That amounted to a wRC+ of 112, to which he added seven steals and solid defense in left field (although not as solid elsewhere), accumulating 1.2 fWAR in that short span.

Although that was a small sample, it seemed to reaffirm Preller’s feeling about Profar, as the club re-signed him in free agency that winter. Much like Profar’s career, the deal was a bit unusual, as it was a three-year, $21MM contract that afforded Profar an opt-out after each season. That was quite a nice coup for him, as it gave him the upside of being able to return to free agency if he were to continue on a positive path, but give him some security in the event that he had another setback.

At this point, you can probably guess that his Jekyll-and-Hyde act was not over. In 2021, the first year of that deal, he had yet another down year, hitting .227/.329/.320 for a wRC+ of just 85. At the end of the campaign, he had the ability to opt out of the two years and $14MM remaining on his deal but unsurprisingly decided to stay after that tepid season.

Here in 2022, the Padres have played 47 games, just over 29% of the season. How is Profar doing now? Following the script perfectly, he is good again, hitting .222/.332/.401, with six homers and four steals. His wRC+ is at 114 and he began today’s action with 1.2 fWAR.

There’s still a lot of season left to change the picture here, and it’s obvious that Profar is not immune from quick narrative reversals, but it’s starting to seem as though he could be lining himself up to opt out of the final year of his contract. He will be deciding between a $7.5MM player option for 2023 or a $1MM buyout. (There’s also a $10MM mutual option for 2024 with another $1MM buyout.) If he were to take the buyout, he would only need to find $6.5MM in free agency to break even.

For a player as unpredictable as Profar, there would certainly be reasons for teams to stay away from him. But there are also reasons to dive in. Despite all those twists and turns in his career, he’s still only 29 years old and won’t turn 30 until February. Even in those down years, he’s always shown good plate discipline. From 2018 to the present, he has a 10.1% walk rate and 14.8% strikeout rate. For context, the league wide averages this year are currently at 8.5% and 22.4%, meaning he’s better than average in both cases. This year, he’s gotten his rates even at 14.1%, prior to today’s game.

Despite some shaky defense in the past when he was bouncing all over the diamond, he seems to have settled into a nice home in left field, having played nowhere else this season. 2020 was his first significant time in left, logging 282 1/3 innings, followed by 257 1/3 last year and 367 this year, going into today’s game. Over those three seasons, his Defensive Runs Saved went from 3 in 2020, to 1 last and 7 this year. His Ultimate Zone Rating went from 2.0 to -0.9 to 2.4. Outs Above Average goes from 0 to -2 to 0.

Although it’s difficult to tell who the real Profar is, it seems plausible that he could get more than $6.5MM in free agency, given his relative youth and inherent athleticism. Even in a down year, he can still take walks, steal a few bases, hit a few homers and can likely provide average corner outfield defense. One would imagine his agent Scott Boras will likely be making that argument, based on his reputation. It may not be a bad argument either. Then again, if anyone can completely change the calculus in a hurry, it’s Profar.

Big Hype Prospects: Torkelson, Duran, Rodriguez, Pasquantino, Yepez

By Brad Johnson | May 27, 2022 at 3:05pm CDT

This week, we check in on a number of prospects already in the Majors or on the cusp of promotion.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Spencer Torkelson, 22, 1B, DET (MLB)
144 PA, 4 HR, .179/.292/.309

Those hoping Torkelson would be the next great prospect debut have been sorely disappointed. Yet, lurking below his ugly surface level stats are promising peripherals. Tork has displayed above average plate discipline and is especially resistant to swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He’s still struggled with strikeouts (28.5% K%), but there’s reason for optimism on that front. Since his 10.2 percent swinging strike rate is relatively tame, he should trim his strikeouts as he adjusts to the league. His primary scouting attributes – an above average hit tool backed by double-plus power – await an aha moment.

A week ago, a demotion to Triple-A looked increasingly likely. However, he’s now hit .265/.333/.441 over his last 39 plate appearances with three doubles, a homer, a 10.3 percent walk rate, and a 15.4 percent strikeout rate. The not-quite-hot-streak is sufficient cause for optimism, especially for a 16-28 Tigers club.

Jarren Duran, 25, OF, BOS (AAA)
142 PA, 4 HR, 10 SB, .315/.387/.543

Duran admitted to trying to do too much in the power department last year when he hit .215/.241/.336 in 112 big-league plate appearances. Thus far, he’s played just one game in the Majors this season. We’ll see him for more soon since he’s slaying Triple-A pitching and stands to considerably upgrade a 21-23 Red Sox roster.

Duran has returned to a line drive-oriented approach which might limit his ceiling but should also improve his floor. His batted ball profile is associated with high-BABIPs. Red Sox starting right fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. isn’t bringing anything with the bat (.213/.275/.331). He might be better deployed as a backup or defensive replacement.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
43.1 IP, 13.71 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 2.70 ERA

The Orioles have a doubleheader tomorrow. Jordan Lyles is set to start one half with the other belonging to a mystery pitcher. Baltimore has several options including Rodriguez. He’s due to start tonight so we’ll likely know by 7:05pm ET if he’ll get the call.

Since appearing in the column last week, Rodriguez had a six-inning, nine-strikeout start. He allowed two runs on four hits and a walk. It marked the second consecutive start in which he faced 23 batters. That’s a fairly typical workload for a young Major League pitcher so it does appear he’s cleared all obvious development hurdles.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 24, 1B, KC (AAA)
182 PA, 12 HR, 3 SB, .296/.396/.638

If the 15-28 Royals intend to salvage their season, they don’t have any time left to pull their punches. The club is currently using Hunter Dozier and Carlos Santana between first base and designated hitter. Dozier is having a solid if unspectacular rebound season. Santana, despite again managing more walks than strikeouts, hasn’t brought any thump to the plate. Pasquantino, a lefty slugger, has comparable walk and strikeout rates to Santana, but he supports them with a fly ball-oriented swing and a high rate of contact. Had he arrived during the 2019 season, he’d be an instant threat to swat a 50-homer pace. Since his raw power doesn’t stand out, there’s risk he’ll run a low BABIP due to too many easy fly outs. I’m reminded Rhys Hoskins in his age 24 season (2017). Perhaps we’ll see the same homer binge too!

Juan Yepez, 24, 1B/OF, STL (MLB)
86 PA, 4 HR, .273/.337/.468

Yepez wasn’t a highly celebrated prospect until his excellent 2021 campaign. Even that performance drew lukewarm plaudits due to the lack of quality pitching in the upper-minors last season. Yepez delivered more power in Triple-A this April, popping nine home runs in 93 plate appearances. He’s followed up with four dingers in the Majors. An aggressive batter, Yepez has the makings of an above average offensive player who lacks a stable defensive home. The Cardinals are currently trying him in the outfield corners and first base. Since Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are sidelined, there’s plenty of room to play mix and match. When they return, St. Louis and Yepez will have to reckon with a roster crunch.

Five More

Bryson Stott (24): Shortstop Didi Gregorius is slowly working his way back from a knee injury. This was an excellent opportunity for Stott to claim the starting role, but he’s hitting just .108/.195/.108 in his second stint with the club. Strikeouts have plagued him all season, even in Triple-A. A second demotion looms if he doesn’t awaken immediately.

Nolan Gorman (22): When he was promoted last week, I figured Gorman would either struggle to make contact or succeed via home runs. Instead, he produced loud contact but didn’t clear a fence. His .263/.364/.368 batting line through 22 plate appearances is safely above average, but it relied upon a .417 BABIP. Whiffs could still sink him – his 31.8 percent strikeout rate and 17.7 percent swinging strike rate would rate among the 10-worst qualified hitters.

JP Sears (26): Among pitchers with at least 20 innings, Sears leads Triple-A with a 35.9 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate (K%-BB%). On Wednesday, he tossed five strong innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Sears largely leans on a fastball-slider combo which tends to indicate a future in the bullpen.

Kyle Muller (24): A former second-round pick, Muller hasn’t yet successfully transitioned to the Majors. He walked the world in his lone big-league start this season. In the minors, he’s posted a fine 3.68 ERA backed by a lovely 12.03 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9. Scouts have noted his fastball command tends to be transient.

Jordan Groshans (22): Since arriving in Triple-A, Groshans has recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts in 78 plate appearances. Although he’s yet to homer, his .381/.474/.429 triple-slash is plenty lovely. He’s a line drive machine who could reinforce the Blue Jays later this season. Scouts expect him to slide to third base.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Steve Adams | May 25, 2022 at 10:58pm CDT

We’re more than a quarter of the way through the 2022 season, which makes a look ahead to the forthcoming offseason and free agent class overdue. The 2022-23 free agent market can’t match this past winter’s market in terms of the sheer volume of available star power, but it’s a strong group nevertheless, with a few MVP candidates slated to reach free agency for the first time.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season, and it’s of course worth noting that with about 75% of games left to be played, a lot can change. Our power rankings, compiled collaboratively by myself, Anthony Franco and MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes, are based on what we believe to be a player’s total earning power in free agency. As such, age plays a prominent factor in that equation. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given strong indications they’ll forgo any such opportunity to return to the market (as Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado has in the past). Current performance is also, obviously, crucial. A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

Here’s a look at our current top ten, as well as a handful of honorable mentions who could see themselves climb into the top ten by season’s end…

1. Aaron Judge, RF, Yankees: When Yankees general manager Brian Cashman made the surprising decision to announce the terms of the contract that was offered to (and rejected by) Judge — a seven-year, $213.5MM extension — there were plenty of onlookers convinced Judge had made a sizable misstep. A $30.5MM annual salary over seven years would place him among the game’s top earners but not quite in the elite tier.

A slow start might’ve made the decision look questionable, but Judge has gone the opposite route. He’s been the best qualified hitter in baseball aside from Mike Trout, by measure of wRC+, leading the Majors in homers and trailing only Trout in slugging percentage by the narrowest of margins (.693 to .692). Judge is walking at a 10.7% clip, his strikeouts (26.6%) are down a good bit from his earlier seasons when rates around 31% were his norm, and his batted-ball profile has practically broken Statcast. Judge is averaging a comical 96.9 mph off the bat this season, and he’s ripped 64% of his batted balls at greater than 95 mph.

Judge’s free-agent contract will begin with his age-31 season, and that’s one distinct disadvantage to him — particularly relative to younger free agents like the trio of shortstops who directly follow him on this ranking. That said, there’s simply no discounting the fact that Judge’s offense is on a new level this season, which is saying something given the high bar he’s previously established. If he maintains even 75% of this pace for the remainder of the season, that seven-year term and $30.5MM AAV are both going to feel light. Right now, an eight-year deal at a heartier AAV is easy to imagine, and the longer Judge keeps hitting like this, the more those numbers will increase.

2. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins: Correa was fortunate to dodge a broken finger when he was plunked on the hand recently, instead only sitting out a minimal 10-day stint due to a bone bruise. The former No. 1 overall pick shocked the baseball world by signing the fourth-largest AAV ever with the Twins ($35.1MM) — albeit on a three-year deal laden with opt-out provisions. The commonly held belief is that Correa will opt out after the 2022 season and return to the market in search of the long-term mega-deal that eluded him this past offseason.

Whether that contract is there will hinge both on how many games Correa plays and on how well he performs in his new environs. He got out to a slow start in Minnesota but repeatedly insisted that he wasn’t worried, and his confidence has begun to manifest into production. Correa is hitting .382/.443/.545 over his past 61 plate appearances, and even when he was struggling through poor results before that, he was making loads of hard contact. He’s not on pace to match last year’s career-best defensive numbers, but no one is disputing that the 2021 Platinum Glover is anything less than a top-notch defensive player.

It’s fair to wonder whether Correa will be able to secure a 10-year contract with a premium annual value after the closest he came this past offseason was a reported 10-year, $275MM offer from the Tigers prior to the lockout. Even if Correa “settles” for a seven- or eight-year contract, though, the fact that he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season at age 28 is a huge point in his favor. An eight-year deal would only run through Correa’s age-35 season, and a lengthier pact can’t be ruled out if he continues to pick up the pace at the plate.

3. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers: Turner and Correa could arguably be flipped in ordering here, but I’m listing him third due to the fact that he’s more than a year older. While he may be a lesser defender and possess less power than Correa, he’s still a good defensive shortstop with above-average pop. He’s also been more durable in recent years with better contact skills and more value on the basepaths. Some teams will prefer Correa. Some will prefer Turner. Both will be in demand. Both will get paid — a lot.

Broadly speaking, there are very, very few players who present as much all-around value as Turner. He’s unlikely to rip 30 home runs or lead the league in on-base percentage, but Turner is a perennial 20-homer, 40-steal threat with a track record of above-average defensive marks, a lower-than-average strikeout rate and a lifetime .302/.358/.488 batting line. He slugged a career-high 28 home runs in 2021 and was hitting at a similar pace in 2020’s shortened season, but he’s only left the yard thrice in 184 plate appearances this year.

Even if Turner reverts to his prior levels of power, there’s no real weakness in his game. He’s a dependable four- to five-WAR player who showed in 2021 that he has six- to seven-WAR upside when at his absolute best. Turner will turn 30 on June 30 in the first year of his new contract, and it’s reasonable to expect that he could find a lucrative eight-year deal in free agency. One thing worth keeping an eye on: defensive metrics are quite down on his early work (-3 DRS, -6 OAA).

4. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: The most consistent hitter among this trio of shortstops, Bogaerts would top Correa and Turner were he even viewed as an average defender at the position. Instead, his glovework has struggled so much that there was a good bit of drama surrounding whether he’d move off the position upon Boston’s signing of Trevor Story.

Bogaerts can opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract, and he’s a lock to do so even with the shaky defensive skill set at shortstop. He’s hitting .323/.385/.458 as of this writing and carries a gaudy .300/.372/.518 slash (135 wRC+) dating back to 2018. Bogaerts’ career-high 33 home runs came during the juiced ball season, and he’s otherwise been more of a 20- to 25-homer bat. He’s been remarkably consistent in terms of his solid walk rates, lower-than-average strikeout rates and batting averages, though, and any team that signs him can feel confident it’s getting a true middle-of-the-order threat.

The question will be just what position he plays, as there won’t be many (if any) teams comfortable with the idea of playing Bogaerts at shortstop for the next six-plus years. A team could play him there in the early stages of a new contract, but Bogaerts will likely be viewed by some teams as a second baseman or third baseman only. He’s never posted a positive total in Defensive Runs Saved and only has once in Outs Above Average (back in 2017). For his career, he’s at -58 DRS and -42 OAA. His bat might still carry him to an eight-year deal, but Bogaerts’ days as a shortstop are likely dwindling — and the market could well reflect that reality.

5. Joe Musgrove, RHP, Padres: Musgrove, 30 in December, has improved his stock every year since 2017, either by improving his rate stats or his innings count. It’s been a steady march toward his current top-of-the-rotation status, and he’s now poised to cash in next winter with a blend of youth and general excellence that currently has him as MLBTR’s top-earning starter.

Since Musgrove ramped up his curveball usage in 2020, he’s pitched to a combined 3.03 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 273 innings. He’s not missing as many bats in 2022 as he did in 2020-21, but strikeouts are down leaguewide and he’s offsetting that with a career-best 4.4% walk rate in 52 innings so far. Musgrove currently boasts a microscopic 1.90 ERA in 52 innings. He ranks in the 82nd percentile or better in fastball spin rate (97th), curveball spin rate (82nd), opponents’ chase rate (93rd), walk percentage (89th), average exit velocity (84th), expected ERA (87th), expected wOBA (87th) and expected slugging percentage (83rd), per Statcast.

Musgrove might not be a household name whose track record is littered with All-Star appearances and Cy Young votes, but his current trajectory should change that. A five-year deal feels like the floor, and a healthier six-year pact seems likely.

6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals: Arenado has said in the past that he plans to remain in St. Louis for the long haul after being traded over from the Rockies, so this could very well be a moot point. He made good on those promises by forgoing the first opt-out opportunity in his contract this past offseason, but the Cardinals tacked an extra year (at $15MM) and an extra opt-out provision onto his contract upon acquiring him.

If Arenado continues anywhere near his current pace, it’ll at least be more tempting to see what the market might bear. Shedding the “product of Coors Field” narrative in full this year, Arenado is raking at a .288/.351/.545 pace — all with his typical brand of elite defense (5 Defensive Runs Saved, 4 Outs Above Average, 3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 324 innings).

Arenado has five years and $144MM remaining on his contract following the 2022 season and will turn 32 next April. The remaining five years will carry Arenado through his age-36 season at a rate that’s lighter than many of the game’s top-end stars. We’ve seen infielders Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Josh Donaldson all sign free-agent deals that run through their age-37 seasons in recent years. Again, the likeliest outcome is that Arenado stays put — based on the infielder’s own wording — but if he does choose to test the market, the earning power will be there.

7. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: If deGrom were healthier, he’d be higher on this list, age be damned. However, deGrom hasn’t pitched since July 7, 2021 due to a forearm strain that ended his 2021 season and a stress reaction in his scapula (shoulder blade) that has prevented him from pitching so far in 2022.

No one needs much of a primer on just how dominant deGrom is when he’s healthy. He’s a two-time Cy Young winner and probably would’ve won a third in 2021 with better health. He posted a superhuman 1.08 ERA, 45.1% strikeout rate and 3.4% walk rate in 92 innings while averaging 99.1 mph on his fastball last year. A healthy deGrom is very arguably the best pitcher on the planet — evidenced by the 1.94 ERA he’s compiled over his past 581 innings.

DeGrom is signed through 2023 (plus a 2024 club option) but has said, even with his injury, that he’ll opt out of the contract and forgo the $30.5MM he’s guaranteed next year. If he can return in late June or early July and dominate down the stretch, a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of teammate Max Scherzer’s record-setting $43.33MM annual salary is in play. Even if deGrom struggles or doesn’t throw a pitch in 2022, a team would likely top that $30.5MM salary to bring him in on a short-term, ultra-high-risk gamble.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants: Drafted with the No. 3 overall pick back in 2014, Rodon was heralded as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm for the White Sox He eventually achieved that status, but not until the seventh year of his Major League career. For Rodon’s first six years, he was an oft-injured power arm who’d flash ace potential but lacked both the consistency and the durability to get there.

Durability remains a concern after Rodon pitched just 36 innings over the 2021 season’s final 10 weeks due to shoulder fatigue. He remained effective during that time but worked with a diminished fastball and was not given a qualifying offer by the White Sox — despite his elite production (on a per-inning basis). But what Rodon has done since that 2021 breakout is prove that he is, when healthy, a bona fide No. 1 starter.

Over his past 177 1/3 innings, Rodon has a 2.64 ERA with a dominant 34.5% strikeout rate against just a 7.4% walk rate. Since Opening Day 2021, Rodon leads all Major League pitchers (min. 100 innings) in strikeout percentage. He ranks 10th in swinging-strike rate and owns the eighth-lowest opponents’ contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. Rodon can opt out of the second year and $22.5MM on his current contract if he pitches 110 innings this season. If he can make 30 starts this year, there’s probably a five-year deal waiting for him in free agency — especially when considering the fact that he won’t turn 30 until December.

9. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs: Clearly the top catcher on next winter’s market, Contreras has gotten out to a strong start in 2022, hitting at a .258/.382/.458 clip with five homers through his first 144 plate appearances. That puts him roughly on pace for what would be the fourth 20-homer season of his career. Contreras, a two-time All-Star, ranks fourth among all catchers (min. 500 plate appearances) in fWAR and fifth in wRC+ dating back to the 2019 season. He just turned 30 earlier this month, making the first season of a new contract his age-31 campaign.

Contreras’ reps will surely be looking to topple Yasmani Grandal’s four-year, $73MM deal with the White Sox. With a strong enough finish, Contreras could reasonably push to join the likes of J.T. Realmuto, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey as catchers who earned $20MM-plus annually during their prime.

10. Brandon Nimmo, CF, Mets: Perennially underrated, Nimmo doesn’t get the love he deserves when looking at his career production. There’s no skirting the huge injury risk associated with him, but when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, Nimmo’s elite plate discipline and above-average power have resulted in production that’s 35% better than that of a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. Nimmo has walked in 14.6% of his career plate appearances en route to a .269/.392/.445 batting line. He’s only reached double-digit homers once in his career, though that’s due to injuries and to the shortened 2020 season (when he played in 55 of 60 games and popped eight homers). On a rate basis, however, Nimmo’s career .176 ISO (slugging minus average) is comfortably north of league average.

Like Contreras, Nimmo is the best player at his position and arguably the only free-agent option for a team seeking an everyday center fielder. He hasn’t graded out as an elite defensive center fielder, but Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average all think he’s been an above-average defender there over the past two seasons. He’s not a huge stolen base threat, but Statcast credits Nimmo with 92nd percentile sprint speed dating back to 2021.

Some teams will balk at the injury history, while others may not be keen on promising a weighty guarantee to a player who’s never reached 20 home runs in a season. However, we’ve seen OBP- and defense-driven center fielders like Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain cash in before. A fifth year may be hard to come by, but a strong four-year deal seems attainable. Another prolonged absence could quickly drop Nimmo off this list, but as things stand right now, Nimmo is the type of free agent who’ll probably surprise fans with the contract he ultimately signs.

Honorable Mentions: Justin Verlander, Sean Manaea, Edwin Diaz, Dansby Swanson, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Zach Eflin

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Anthony Franco | May 23, 2022 at 10:44am CDT

Perhaps no other team in MLB is as aggressive as the Dodgers when the opportunity to land elite talent presents itself. Coming off another trip to the NLCS, that wasn’t likely to change this offseason. It didn’t, as the Dodgers poached the top hitter from the team that knocked them out en route to a World Series title.

Major League Signings

1B Freddie Freeman: Six years, $162MM (deal includes deferrals that reduce net present value to around $148MM)
LF Chris Taylor: Four years, $60MM (including buyout of 2026 club option)
LHP Clayton Kershaw: One year, $17MM
LHP Andrew Heaney: One year, $8.5MM
LHP Tyler Anderson: One year, $8MM
RHP Daniel Hudson: One year, $7MM (including buyout of 2023 club option)
LHP Danny Duffy: One year, $3MM (deal also contains 2023 club option)
2B Hanser Alberto: One year, $1.6MM (including buyout of 2023 club option)
RHP Jimmy Nelson: One year, $700K (deal also contains 2023 club option)

Option Decisions

RHP Trevor Bauer forewent opportunity to opt out of final two years and $64MM
Team declined $12MM option on RHP Joe Kelly in favor of $4MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Traded RF Billy McKinney and LF Zach Reks to Rangers for cash
Traded LF Luke Raley to Rays for minor league RHP Tanner Dodson
Traded LF Matt Beaty to Padres for minor league IF/RHP River Ryan
Acquired RHP Craig Kimbrel from White Sox for LF AJ Pollock

Notable Minor League Signings

Yency Almonte (later selected to 40-man roster), Eddy Alvarez, Pedro Báez, Dellin Betances, Beau Burrows, Robbie Erlin (later selected to 40-man roster, then outrighted), Carson Fulmer (via minor league Rule 5 draft), Sam Gaviglio, Shane Greene (later selected to 40-man roster, then designated for assignment), Ty Kelly, Jake Lamb, Jason Martin, Reyes Moronta (later selected to 40-man roster), Kevin Pillar, Yefry Ramirez, Stefen Romero, Tomás Telis, Mike Wright Jr., Daniel Zamora

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Kenley Jansen, Pollock, Corey Knebel, Kelly, Albert Pujols, Sheldon Neuse, Beaty, McKinney, Reks, Andrew Vasquez, Scott Alexander, Darien Núñez, Edwin Uceta, Andy Burns

The Dodgers’ streak of eight consecutive NL West titles came to an end in 2021, but it wasn’t through any fault of theirs. 106 wins just wasn’t enough to catch the 107-win Giants, as those two clubs battled for the division down to the final weekend. The Dodgers got their revenge in the postseason, knocking off their archrivals in a tightly-contested NL Division Series, but their hopes of a repeat World Series title were dashed the following round by the eventual champion Braves.

Because of their consistently upper-tier payrolls and highly aggressive front office, the Dodgers are a team to watch every offseason. That was even more true than usual after 2021, as Los Angeles faced a number of potential key free agent departures. They’d stunned the baseball world by pulling off a Trea Turner — Max Scherzer blockbuster with the Nationals last summer. Turner is controllable through 2022, but Scherzer was headed for free agency. So was Corey Seager, whom Turner could ostensibly replace at shortstop. Franchise stalwarts Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen were going to be available, as was super-utilityman Chris Taylor and a couple solid veteran relievers (Corey Knebel and Joe Kelly, the latter of whom was bought out by the club due to concerns about his arm health).

There was no question the Dodgers would keep some segment of that group, but they were never going to hold onto the whole bunch. To begin the offseason, L.A. was faced with a few qualifying offer decisions. Tagging Seager and Taylor was an easy call, as neither would accept. Scherzer and Jansen were ineligible — the former because he was dealt midseason, the latter because he’d already received a QO in his career. The only borderline case was Kershaw, one of the greatest players in franchise history. Kershaw remained highly productive but ended the season on the injured list due to forearm/elbow inflammation.

The Dodgers ultimately elected not to issue a qualifying offer, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman quickly maintained that wasn’t for lack of interest in keeping the three-time Cy Young winner around. Friedman suggested Kershaw wanted some time to ponder his future with his family, seemingly deciding between a return to L.A. or signing with his hometown Rangers. Kershaw’s decision would linger for months, but there’d be plenty of pre-lockout activity for the club.

Los Angeles was the first team to sign one of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents, agreeing to an $8.5MM guarantee with starter Andrew Heaney a few days into the offseason. The left-hander was coming off a miserable 2021 season split between the Angels and Yankees, with the latter club designating him for assignment rather than carry him on their postseason roster. Heaney was bombarded by home runs, but his quality strikeout and walk numbers figured to make him an appealing buy-low candidate. The Dodgers installed him into their season-opening rotation, and he had an excellent first two starts before suffering a shoulder injury.

Adding Heaney certainly didn’t preclude the Dodgers from trying to keep Scherzer at the top of the starting staff. Los Angeles was in the bidding for the eight-time All-Star, but he eventually departed for a three-year, $130MM contract with the Mets. Within a day of seeing Scherzer depart, the Dodgers also pulled out of the bidding for their longtime shortstop. Seager agreed to terms on a ten-year, $325MM deal with the Rangers. That wound up being easily the biggest guarantee of the offseason, and the Dodgers merely picked up a compensatory draft choice after the fourth round for his departure.

Of course, the front office wasn’t going to idle as the rest of the league attacked the pre-lockout period with urgency. The Dodgers added capable set-up man Daniel Hudson on a $7MM guarantee, backfilling the relief corps in light of their departures. More importantly, they won the bidding for Taylor, bringing him back on a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

Taylor has had a stellar five-plus year run in Southern California. Acquired from the Mariners in what turned out to be a 2016 trade heist, he’s provided manager Dave Roberts with ample defensive flexibility bouncing between the three most challenging infield positions and both left and center field. Plenty of players nowadays are willing to man multiple positions, but few do so while consistently posting above-average offensive production. Taylor does, with enough power and patience to offset some swing-and-miss concerns. The Dodgers clearly valued the skillset he brings on both sides of the ball, as he wound up being one of just two multi-year deals they landed out.

The other wouldn’t come until after the work stoppage, but there were hints of its possibility during the pre-lockout frenzy. Some considered it a fait accompli the Braves would re-sign Freddie Freeman. He’d been a career-long member of the organization, won the 2020 NL MVP award, and mashed throughout last year’s World Series run. Atlanta would certainly make an effort to bring him back, and prevailing industry expectation early in the winter was they’d succeed.

By the time the lockout arrived, that sentiment was starting to dwindle. Freeman and the Braves hit a stalemate in negotiations about whether the team should offer a sixth guaranteed season. Rumblings emerged that the Dodgers could be in position to make a run at the three-time Silver Slugger winner. Not only are the Dodgers a potential factor on every free agent superstar, Freeman is an Orange County native who could welcome the opportunity to return to the area.

Coming out of the lockout, reports emerged that the Dodgers were making a spirited run at Freeman. They and the incumbent Braves were viewed as essential co-favorites in those first few days, and Atlanta’s preemptive acquisition of Matt Olson from the A’s pulled them from the running. That left the Dodgers as the likeliest landing spot, and while teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres and even Rays were mentioned as possible suitors late in the process, L.A. eventually got it done.

Freeman signed a six-year, $162MM pact that wound up being the fourth-largest free agent guarantee of the offseason (although deferrals reduced its actual net present value under $150MM). The Dodgers added another elite bat to an already loaded lineup, and they injected even more intrigue into the NL playoff race by poaching a homegrown superstar from one of their direct competitors.

The Braves, meanwhile, would throw a counterpunch of their own by signing Jansen to be their closer. While the front offices were surely making what they calculated to be the best baseball operations decisions, there’s probably some small amount of satisfaction in trading offseason barbs with potential budding rivals. Virtually all the top teams in the National League conducted or at least tried to orchestrate significant roster shakeups over the winter.

Having lost Jansen, the Dodgers faced a void in the ninth inning. It appeared they’d turn to Hudson or returning relievers like Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol there, but they instead opted for a much splashier move. The week before Opening Day, the Dodgers and White Sox aligned on a one-for-one swap of veterans. Los Angeles sent corner outfielder AJ Pollock to Chicago in exchange for Craig Kimbrel in an out-of-the-blue trade.

Kimbrel had become an increasingly tricky player to value. One of the sport’s best relievers for almost a decade with Atlanta, Boston and San Diego, his production had largely fallen off since he signed a three-year pact with the Cubs midway through 2019. Kimbrel was ineffective over the first two seasons of that deal and his contract looked like a negative-value asset before he returned to vintage form for a few months. The right-hander tossed 36 2/3 innings of 0.49 ERA ball for the Cubs during the first half of last season, striking out almost half the batters he faced in the process.

After the Cubs sent him to the White Sox in a crosstown deadline deal, however, his production sputtered. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine over the season’s final couple months thanks to significant home run issues. Kimbrel’s strikeout and swinging strike numbers remained strong, but they’d dipped from their otherworldly heights on the North Side. After the Sox exercised a $16MM club option on his services, it looked as if there may not be much trade interest.

In the end, the Dodgers felt comfortable enough with their position player depth to roll the dice that Kimbrel’s still a late-game weapon. Pollock had remained a very productive player, particularly offensively, when healthy. Yet the 34-year-old has battled numerous injuries in recent seasons, and the Dodgers arguably didn’t need another outfielder. They’ve never shied away from stockpiling depth, but the opportunity to address what looked like the relative weakest area of the roster — the bullpen — arose, and the front office took it.

No other team in baseball can match the talent the Dodgers have around the diamond. Will Smith is one of the sport’s best catchers, backed up by Austin Barnes. Freeman takes over at first base, allowing Max Muncy to rotate through second base, third base and the newly-implemented NL designated hitter. Former top prospect Gavin Lux finally gets an opportunity for regular run at second, with Justin Turner splitting time between the hot corner and DH. Trea Turner slides back from second base to his typical shortstop position in Seager’s stead.

Taylor is primarily a left fielder given the strength of the club’s infield, but he’s certainly capable of kicking back to the dirt if necessary. The Dodgers signed righty-hitting utilityman Hanser Alberto to add some more defensive flexibility, a move that squeezed the bat-first Matt Beaty off the roster. (L.A. traded Beaty to the rival Padres after designating him for assignment). Edwin Ríos returns from May shoulder surgery that prematurely ended his 2021 season to round out the infield.

The outfield primarily consists of Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts. The Dodgers elected to tender Bellinger an arbitration contract despite an abysmal 2021 season, placing faith in the 2019 NL MVP to bounce back. He’s not found anything approaching that kind of form in the early going, but he’s at least making an impact from a power perspective again after slugging just .302 last season. Combined with strong defense in center field, Bellinger’s still a valuable player, even if there’s probably some amount of frustration he’s not been able to maintain his early-career superstar form.

Most of the Dodgers’ remaining offseason moves could broadly be seen as taking shots on talented pitchers with injury concerns. Kershaw is the ultimate example, as he decided to return to the only organization he’s ever known coming out of the lockout. The Dodgers inked him to a one-year, $17MM guarantee, avoiding a long-term commitment but reinforcing Friedman’s claims from earlier in the offseason the franchise would spend to keep him around if Kershaw wanted to stay.

That wasn’t a mere legacy signing, as Kershaw is still the kind of ultra-talented pitcher they’d happily hand a postseason start when he’s right. He started the 2022 campaign with five excellent outings before experiencing some inflammation in his right hip/pelvis area. That’s less concerning than an arm issue would be, but he’ll miss at least a few weeks. The organization is surely hopeful he’ll be at full strength to take the ball alongside Julio Urías and Walker Buehler come playoff time.

Who else factors into that rotation mix remains to be seen, but the Dodgers have some options. Tony Gonsolin remains on hand, and Heaney should’ve long since returned from his IL stint for the stretch run. Dustin May is rehabbing from last spring’s Tommy John surgery, and prospects Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove have gotten brief looks in the majors so far. (Trevor Bauer is on the team’s restricted list after declining to exercise his opt-out clause, but he’s in the midst of the appellate process after Major League Baseball handed down a two-year suspension after finding he’d violated the Domestic Violence policy last month).

The club also figures to poke around the summer trade market for potential upgrades. They reportedly had discussions with the Reds about Luis Castillo over the winter, and the high-octane righty could be available again. Former Dodger prospect Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle are among the other mid-rotation types who might be on the market.

This front office regime has been very willing to take some risks from a health perspective in pursuit of talent. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this week they made a one-year offer to Carlos Rodón, another hurler who fits in the high-octane, high-risk bucket. (Rodón ended up in San Francisco on a two-year pact that allows him to opt out after this season). Yet they’ll obviously need to collect bulk innings somewhere to avoid overworking the bullpen, and they took a step in that regard during Spring Training.

Los Angeles signed southpaw Tyler Anderson to an $8MM guarantee. He’s a bit against that archetype, providing lower-variance production at the back end of the rotation. Anderson isn’t flashy and doesn’t typically work deep into starts, but he reliably took the ball every fifth day for Pittsburgh and Seattle last season and offers a valuable complement to some of the riskier arms in the back-end mix.

Kimbrel and Hudson were the biggest bullpen additions, although the Dodgers took a couple low-cost fliers on talented but injured arms there as well. Acquiring Danny Duffy from the Royals last summer didn’t pan out as hoped, as he had a setback in his recovery from the flexor strain that had him on the injured list at the time. He didn’t pitch for the Dodgers in 2021, but the club brought him back on a $3MM guarantee with an incentive-laden option for 2023.

Duffy has been targeting a June return, and the longtime starter suggested he’d work in shorter stints this year as a means of preserving his health after a long layoff. He has the potential to make a late-season impact in the middle to late innings. That may not be true of Jimmy Nelson, who underwent Tommy John surgery last August. He signed a more affordable version of the “one-year guarantee with an option” arrangement in Spring Training, though, and could be a factor in 2023.

While the focus will obviously be on the on-field moves the Dodgers have made, they also conducted some notable administrative business. In January, they promoted AGM Brandon Gomes to general manager. That solidified him as Friedman’s #2 in the front office hierarchy and warded off the potential for another team to poach him by offering that same title elsewhere, which the Mets were reportedly considering. During Spring Training, they signed Roberts to a three-year extension covering the 2023-25 campaigns. That kept their World Series-winning skipper from entering 2022 under a lame duck contract, and it positions him to eclipse ten years in that role.

The Dodgers have been a win-now team since before the start of Roberts’ tenure. They’ve done a remarkable job of backfilling the roster internally, maintaining a perennially strong farm system that affords the depth for prospect promotions and blockbuster acquisitions of players like Betts, Turner and Scherzer. Paired with an ownership group that’s willing to spend for marquee free agent talent, they’ve orchestrated a more consistent run of recent success than any other franchise in the league.

That’s showing no signs of slowing down, and while teams like the Giants and Padres should push them at the top of the division, the Dodgers are among the handful of teams most likely to win the World Series in 2022. That’s more or less the tier they’ve occupied for a decade, and the long-term window is as open as ever.

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

By Steve Adams | May 21, 2022 at 9:39am CDT

Under second-year owner Steve Cohen, the Mets had the spending spree many fans originally envisioned and are now reaping the benefits with one of the game’s most formidable rosters.

Major League Signings

Max Scherzer, RHP: Three years, $130MM
Starling Marte, OF: Four years, $78MM
Mark Canha, OF: Two years, $26.5MM
Eduardo Escobar, INF: Two years, $20MM
Adam Ottavino, RHP: One year, $4MM
John Curtiss, RHP: One year, $770K (contract contains $775K club option for 2023 season)
Nick Plummer, OF: One year, $700K

Total 2022 salary added: $83.903MM
Total overall spend: $259.27MM

Trades and Waiver Claims

Acquired RHP Chris Bassitt from the Athletics in exchange for minor league RHPs J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller
Acquired LHP Joely Rodriguez from the Yankees in exchange for RHP Miguel Castro and cash
Acquired RHP Adonis Medina from the Phillies for cash
Claimed RHP Yoan Lopez off waivers from the Marlins
Claimed RHP Antonio Santos off waivers from the Rockies

Notable Minor League Signings

Chasen Shreve, Travis Jankowski, Alex Claudio, Mike Montgomery, Felix Pena, Daniel Palka, Johneshwy Fargas, R.J. Alvarez, Tim Adleman, Tzu-Wei Lin, Rob Zastryzny

Notable Losses

Marcus Stroman, Javier Baez, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, Jeurys Familia, Jonathan Villar, Aaron Loup, Brad Hand, Rich Hill, Heath Hembree

While many teams around the league opted to wait until the new collective bargaining agreement had been hammered out to make their biggest offseason splashes, the Mets had no such reticence. By the time commissioner Rob Manfred locked out the players, the Mets had spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars on the free-agent market.

The early strike is all the more remarkable given that the Mets entered the offseason without a general manager in place. Owner Steve Cohen was in the market for a new baseball operations leader for a second straight winter. As he did following the 2021 season, Cohen set his sights high, showing interest in names like Billy Beane, David Stearns and Theo Epstein. However, a meeting with Epstein didn’t prove fruitful, and the Mets were denied permission to speak to Beane, Stearns and a host of other potential candidates as they cast a wide net.

Eventually, former Angels GM and Yankees AGM Billy Eppler was tabbed as the new head of baseball operations. A managerial search followed, and though the Mets interviewed several frequent candidates — Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and Astros bench coach Joe Espada among them — it was veteran skipper Buck Showalter who was brought in to steer the new Cohen/Eppler-led ship on the field.

Both Eppler and Showalter represented departures from the inexperienced hires at their positions the Mets had made in recent years. Brodie Van Wagenen went from agent to general manager with no front office experience, while quickly ousted GM Jared Porter had never held the top job in a baseball operations hierarchy before his hiring. (Ditto also departed Zack Scott, who went from assistant GM to acting GM following Porter’s firing.) In the dugout, the Mets had previously hired (and near-immediately dismissed) a first-time skipper in Carlos Beltran, and he was replaced internally by another rookie manager, Luis Rojas. With several recent implosions, some of them unforeseeable, the Mets opted for more experience at those two critical leadership positions.

Within a week of joining the organization, Eppler had a trio of signings to announce. In a span of 48 hours, the Mets agreed to terms on a four-year, $78MM deal with Starling Marte and a pair of two-year deals with outfielder Mark Canha ($26.5MM) and infielder Eduardo Escobar ($20MM). The signings of Marte and Canha, in particular, closed the door on the Mets’ relationship with former All-Star right fielder Michael Conforto. New York already had Brandon Nimmo and several other outfield options on the roster, plus a crowded DH mix. Escobar joined a similarly cluttered collection of infield options, with J.D. Davis also vying for at-bats at third base, Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano at second base, and Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso at first base.

It was a frenzied strike that got its own fair share of buzz and ostensibly looked to set the stage for subsequent trades, but the Mets’ pre-lockout fireworks were only just getting started.

A week after agreeing to terms with Marte, Canha and Escobar, the Mets jumped into the bidding on three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. The most commonly held belief seemed to be that the deep-pocketed Dodgers would hang onto Mad Max, whom they acquired alongside Trea Turner at the 2021 trade deadline. Few teams can go toe-to-toe in a bidding war with Dodgers ownership, after all, and Scherzer himself at the ’21 deadline was reportedly unwilling to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to either New York team (despite interest from both).

Scherzer’s reasons for nixing a trade to New York might never be fully known, but a record-shattering average annual value on a three-year deal from the Mets put to bed any hesitation he might have been feeling. The $43.33MM annual rate at which Scherzer signed absolutely trounced the prior record of $36MM and set a new high-water mark at which all future marquee free agents will surely take aim when seeking short-term deals.

We’ve yet to see it this season, of course, but the eventual debut of a Scherzer/Jacob deGrom-led rotation will give the Mets one of the greatest one-two punches of all-time. (That, unfortunately, will be put on hold even further with Scherzer set to miss six-to-eight weeks because of an oblique strain). With five Cy Young Awards and a dozen All-Star nods between them, Scherzer and deGrom are two of this generation’s most dominant performers. Cohen spent considerable resources to make it happen, but adding those two to an in-house group including Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco, Tylor Megill and David Peterson, among others, gave the Mets a wealth of rotation options even after bidding farewell to Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman.

Of course, the Mets ultimately didn’t prove to be done bolstering the starting staff. With the Athletics widely known to be shopping the majority of their well-compensated veterans, the Mets made the first strike after the transaction freeze, plucking righty Chris Bassitt away in exchange for a pair of minor league right-handers.

J.T. Ginn was considered among the best arms in New York’s system, having been selected in the second round of the 2020 draft. The Mississippi State product turned in a 3.03 ERA in 92 innings across the Mets’ two Class-A affiliates in 2021. Righty Adam Oller, meanwhile, was a former 20th-rounder by the Pirates who’d been out of affiliated ball entirely, only to parlay a terrific indie ball showing into a minor league opportunity with the Mets. He posted excellent numbers in the minor league system last season, vaulting into late-blooming prospect status, and he’s already made his big league debut in Oakland.

It was hardly an inconsequential return for the A’s, and yet the Mets are surely thrilled to have made the deal. Beyond the fact that Bassitt has been flat-out exceptional in Queens — seven starts, 42 1/3 innings, 2.34 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate — the Mets learned in Spring Training that they were in for another protracted absence from deGrom. Having added Bassitt to the mix became all the more important with deGrom sustaining a stress reaction in his right scapula, and Bassitt has been a large reason that deGrom’s absence hasn’t been felt as acutely as most would’ve anticipated.

The rest of the Mets’ post-lockout moves generally focused on the bullpen. New York native Adam Ottavino signed on for a reasonable one-year pact, and Eppler & Co. made a rare crosstown deal with the Yankees that swapped out righty Miguel Castro for lefty Joely Rodriguez. That trade was interesting beyond the fact that it was a nearly unheard of Yankees/Mets deal; Rodriguez had re-signed with the Yanks as a free agent over the winter and, as such, wasn’t eligible to be traded without his consent prior to June 15. As we reported at the time, Rodriguez agreed to the trade after his agent negotiated a $500K bonus to do so.

The Mets also added righty John Curtiss, knowing full well that he won’t pitch this season after last summer’s Tommy John surgery. But he’ll make scarcely more than the league minimum in 2022 with a similarly affordable $775K option for 2023. For a pitcher with a 2.86 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate in 69 1/3 frames from 2020-21, it’s an eminently reasonable roll of the dice. Curtiss can be controlled through 2025 via arbitration as well, further adding to the appeal.

It was something of a surprise that the Mets’ post-lockout dealings generally stopped at this point, however. There was plenty of talk throughout the lockout that the club could be open to adding another big bat of note, with names like Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman and Seiya Suzuki among those connected to the Mets in reports. There was undoubtedly some tactical element from various agencies with some of the many players connected to them — it never hurts to have the big-spending Mets linked to your client — but there was surely an openness from Eppler and his staff to creatively find ways to add to the roster as well. The Mets, for instance, were said to be exploring scenarios that would’ve seen them eat Eric Hosmer’s contract in order to acquire further pitching help and young talent from the Padres — though the deal obviously didn’t come together.

Beyond that scenario, there were plenty of others discussed. Reports throughout the lockout suggested that the Mets, having signed Marte, Canha and Escobar already, could look to trade from a newfound corner outfield/infield logjam. Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil all had their names hit the rumor mill at various points, with Davis in particular tied to a handful of teams looking to add to their DH mix. The Twins, Angels, Cubs and A’s were among the clubs reportedly interested in Davis, who hasn’t gotten his bat going this year amid sparse playing time. Smith, too, has struggled at the plate without a regular role. Given that the Mets were at least contemplating moves regarding the pair of now-struggling sluggers, one can imagine it’s possible their names will again surface in trade talks this summer.

By hanging onto that entire group and also adding several high-priced veterans — led by Scherzer — the Mets entered the season with a staggering, franchise-record payroll of $279MM. Their luxury-tax ledger is even loftier, sitting at $288.775MM in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez (or $287.966MM at Cot’s Contracts). That puts them just inches away from the newly implemented fourth tier of luxury-tax penalization, which sits at $290MM and has been offhandedly referred to as the “Cohen tax.” One of the sticking points for owners around the league during collective bargaining talks was the addition of a fourth tier of luxury penalization, reportedly due largely to a pervasive desire to prevent Cohen from bucking industry trend and spending at over-the-top levels.

Whether their proximity to that threshold will become the norm or is a one-off dalliance due to the fact that it was established after the Mets had already done the bulk of their offseason spending remains to be seen. It’s all but a given, however, that the more conservative payrolls that were the norm under the Wilpon ownership group are a thing of the past. Cohen’s Mets will always be threats to spend at the top of the free-agent market and won’t be afraid to take on salary via trade. That’ll be particularly worth keeping in mind as the trade deadline rolls around this year. The Mets don’t have too many obvious needs — as one would expect from a first-place team in a strong division — but it seems unlikely that finances will serve as the primary roadblock to Eppler acquiring any help the Mets might need a couple months down the road.

Big Hype Prospects: Gorman, Liberatore, Thomas, Lewis, Rodriguez

By Brad Johnson | May 20, 2022 at 10:37am CDT

The Cardinals are making waves on the big prospect front, and we’re here to cover it.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Gorman, 22, 2B/3B, STL (AAA)
147 PA, 15 HR, 3 SB, .308/.367/.677

Once the move is official, the Cardinals will become the first team to roster two Nolans at once (I assume). Baseball has come a long way since its origins. From 1878 through 1885, the sport featured a player known as The Only Nolan.

Trivia aside, Gorman will be the latest top prospect to make his debut. Power has always been his calling card, though this is the first season he’s getting to it in games at such a blistering rate. It comes at a price. He had a 34 percent strikeout rate, and he didn’t walk often (8.2 percent walk rate). In my experience, prospects with questionable discipline tend to have volatile debuts. Opponents sometimes quickly seize upon the player’s weaknesses, making it necessary for the hitter to immediately adjust. Other times, opponents accidentally wander into the batter’s nitro zone, leading to an explosive debut. The slump comes later. Players with these plate discipline markers always slump at some point. We’ll soon see if Gorman enters the league with a rampage, a whimper, or something in between.

Matthew Liberatore, 22, SP, STL (AAA)
40 IP, 10.35 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.83 ERA

I’ve been wondering which of Liberatore or Zack Thompson would make their debut first. We now have our answer. Originally acquired in the Randy Arozarena trade, Liberatore was viewed by many at the time as the best player in the trade. Arozarena’s early-career heroics led us to revise our opinion of what looked like a rare misstep for the Rays, but Liberatore is now poised to help complete the analysis.

As a public, we’ve learned a lot about pitching since that trade, and new findings help to put the deal in context. While the southpaw grades out well on a pitch-by-pitch basis – his fastball is mid-90s, his curve has lovely shape, and his slider is a borderline wipeout offering – the repertoire as a whole doesn’t quite mesh. His fastball is built to work low in the zone so it doesn’t tunnel with his curve. It also plays down for other reasons – in short, some hitters are able to identify it out of the hand. There’s still enough here for a solid big-league pitcher, the profile just isn’t as exciting as it once was.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
39 PA, 2 HR, .316/.333/.553

Thomas is off to a sizzling start. As expected, he’s hitting for average and even has a pair of home runs. Beneath the surface are a few modest causes for concern. He’s known for his plate discipline, but his 2.6 percent walk and 20.5 percent strikeout rates are both worse than many hoped. His swing rates on pitches in and out of the zone are roughly league average. As an industry, we expected him to be more discerning. Thomas is a ground ball-oriented hitter who uses all fields. The profile remains that of a leadoff hitter who can go 15/15 while posting a top batting average and on-base percentage.

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (AAA)
(MLB) 40 PA, 2 HR, .308/.325/.564

Lewis had a lovely debut for the Twins. He was neither overmatched nor out of his element. The top prospect showed he belonged by flashing power, a high rate of contact, and adequate plate discipline. His aggressiveness as a hitter often worked against him in the lower minors, but Lewis has worked to improve. He posted a 15.3 percent walk rate in Triple-A. While his 2.5 percent walk rate in the majors implies he was free swinging, his swing rates at pitches in and out of the zone were roughly league average. His two home runs were backed by gaudy exit velocities. He maxed out at 114-mph, on par with Mike Trout (114.4), Julio Rodriguez (114), and Bryce Harper (113.8), among others.

For now, he returns to Triple-A in deference to Carlos Correa. The move raised some eyebrows (including mine) due to the struggles of Jose Miranda (.094/.143/.189) and Gio Urshela (.229/.293/.330). Having shown his bat belongs, Lewis will presumably spend the next few weeks preparing to return at a new position. In his first game back at Triple-A, he went 3-for-3 with a home run and a stolen base.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
37.1 IP, 13.74 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 2.65 ERA

While we were looking elsewhere, Rodriguez might have completed the final step in his ascension to the Majors. On Tuesday, he faced 23 batters while pitching 5.1 innings. He’d faced 19 batters in his previous four starts. He held the Charlotte Knights scoreless on three hits, three walks, and 11 strikeouts. If there’s a small measure of concern for the right-handed changeup artist, it’s that he’s allowed 4.74 BB/9 over his last four starts. We’re approaching a point in the season where teams might be tempted to push a debut past the nebulous Super Two deadline. That would probably entail at least another full month in the minors.

Five More

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman watch continues unabated. He’s passed the rehab hurdles set for him. Over the last week, he hit .261/.370/.522 with two home runs, three walks, and one strikeout. His debut could come within the next week, possibly even this weekend.

C.J. Abrams (21): After skipping Triple-A by earning a spot on the Opening Day roster, Abrams looked overmatched in 65 big-league plate appearances. Optioned to the minors, he’s hitting .216/.293/.459 with three home runs and three steals in 41 Triple-A plate appearances. The results are modestly encouraging despite the low average and OBP.

Marco Luciano (20): Last season, Luciano’s plate approach deteriorated upon a promotion to High-A. Repeating the level, he’s back to his usual ways, hitting .300/.366/.530 with six home runs in 112 plate appearances. He’s hit especially well over his last 60 plate appearances. He’s trending towards a promotion to Double-A.

Chase Silseth (22): Silseth, who also appeared here last week, had a strong debut. He recorded an 11.1 percent swinging strike rate thanks mostly to his frequently-used splitter. His fastball and slider also looked like plus offerings.

Corbin Carroll (21): Over the last week, Carroll hit .435/.552/1.043 with three home runs, two triples, a double, and two stolen bases. He’s overdue for a promotion to Triple-A. Should that go equally well, we could see him in the Majors later this season.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Anthony Franco | May 19, 2022 at 12:52pm CDT

The Phillies missed the playoffs for the tenth straight year in 2021. That hasn’t been for a lack of aggressiveness, however, and they continued to load up for another shot at snapping the drought this past offseason. Philadelphia added two more big bats to a lineup already full of stars, hoping to overcome deficiencies elsewhere on the roster with an elite run-scoring unit.

Major League Signings

RF Nick Castellanos: five years, $100MM
LF Kyle Schwarber: four years, $79MM
RHP Corey Knebel: One year, $10MM
RHP Jeurys Familia: One year, $6MM
LHP Brad Hand: One year, $6MM
CF Odúbel Herrera: One year, $1.75MM
3B Johan Camargo: One year, $1.4MM

2022 spending: $64.15MM
Total spending: $204.15MM

Option Decisions

Team declined $15MM option on LF Andrew McCutchen in favor of $3MM buyout
Team declined $11.5MM option on CF Odúbel Herrera in favor of $2.5MM buyout (later re-signed to cheaper deal)

Trades and Claims

Claimed LHP Ryan Sherriff off waivers from Rays
Claimed LHP Kent Emanuel off waivers from Astros
Acquired RHP Nick Nelson and C Donny Sands from Yankees for minor league 1B T.J. Rumfield and minor league LHP Joel Valdez
Acquired C Garrett Stubbs from Astros for minor league OF Logan Cerny
Claimed LHP Scott Moss off waivers from Guardians (later outrighted to Triple-A)
Traded IF Luke Williams to Giants for minor league IF Will Toffey
Traded CF Adam Haseley to White Sox for minor league RHP McKinley Moore
Acquired RHP James Norwood from Padres for minor league IF Kervin Pichardo and cash

Notable Minor League Signees

John Andreoli, Aaron Barrett, Cam Bedrosian, Andrew Bellatti (later selected to 40-man roster), Kyle Dohy, Drew Maggi, Dillon Maples, Michael Mariot, James Marvel, Yairo Muñoz, Jake Newberry, Roman Quinn (later selected to 40-man roster), Ricardo Sánchez, Justin Williams, Austin Wynns

Notable Losses

Haseley, McCutchen, Freddy Galvis, Ronald Torreyes, Brad Miller, Hector Néris, Travis Jankowski, Archie Bradley, Ian Kennedy, Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, Brandon Kintzler, Andrew Knapp, Adonis Medina

The story for the Phillies in 2021 was much the same as it had been in prior seasons. Few teams could match the top-end talent, with Bryce Harper posting an MVP campaign and Zack Wheeler narrowly missing out on the Cy Young. The starting rotation was excellent and the team’s top position players more or less met expectations. Yet the core couldn’t entirely compensate for a weak bottom of the lineup, a below-average defense and a bullpen that stubbornly persisted among the league’s worst. The result: an 82-win season, narrowly the franchise’s best mark in a decade but in line with the average results they posted each year from 2018-20.

Failing to earn a playoff spot with this kind of core is deflating, but a top-heavy roster of this ilk is easier to address. After all, it wasn’t hard for Phils’ brass to identify the flaws. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was forthright about the team’s weaknesses at the start of the offseason. The club wasn’t committed to keeping Didi Gregorius as the primary shortstop after he struggled in the first season of a two-year deal; addressing the bullpen and outfield were priorities.

Dombrowski’s comments on Gregorius seemed to position the Phils as a viable suitor for any of the star free agent shortstops available. He name-checked top prospect Bryson Stott as a viable internal alternative, and the club’s behavior made clear that expressed faith in the 24-year-old was not mere lip service. The Phils were never closely tied to anyone of the Carlos Correa, Javier Báez, Corey Seager ilk (at least publicly), and Stott would eventually make the Opening Day roster as Gregorius’ primary competition.

Philadelphia did strike more aggressively in the other areas Dombrowski cited as targets. After buying out both Odúbel Herrera and Andrew McCutchen, they were left with two outfield vacancies alongside Harper. The Phils were linked to Starling Marte in free agency and a potential Kevin Kiermaier trade but ultimately came up empty in their pursuit of a center fielder. Just before the lockout, though, the Phils made a push for Kyle Schwarber to play left field.

A deal didn’t come together before the work stoppage, but the talks set the stage for renewed discussions a few months later. In March, the Phils and Schwarber agreed to terms on a four-year, $79MM deal. The burly left-handed hitter had struggled during the 2020 season with the Cubs, leading to an eventual non-tender. After signing on with the Nationals, Schwarber turned a corner in May and broke out as the hottest hitter on the planet by June. That continued even after an injured list stint for a hamstring strain and intervening trade to the Red Sox, with the 29-year-old looking like the kind of impact bat many have envisioned since he was selected fourth overall in the 2014 draft.

The Phillies clearly believe that’s what they’re getting, and Schwarber should be a marked upgrade over late-career McCutchen. His early tenure in Philadelphia hasn’t been great, but it’s far too soon to suggest his 2021 production was a fluke. Bringing in a bat-first player like Schwarber raised a few eyebrows, given the Phils’ longstanding defensive issues, but it was a rather straightforward pickup of one of the best players available at a position of clear need.

More surprising was how the Phillies followed up on that signing. The day after they agreed to terms with Schwarber, Philadelphia was reported to be making a strong run at Nick Castellanos. A few hours later, the Phils and Castellanos came to terms on a five-year, $100MM contract. One of 13 nine-figure deals handed out over the winter, the Castellanos signing also cost the Phils a draft choice after he’d rejected a qualifying offer from the Reds.

Castellanos is a similar player as Schwarber. A middle-of-the-lineup masher, he generates huge exit velocities and power production and consistently posts excellent numbers at the dish. Castellanos’ track record is a bit more consistent and he makes a higher rate of contact — Schwarber is more dependent on drawing walks to keep his on-base percentage up — but they’re each bat-first players with bottom-tier defensive metrics in the corner outfield.

With Harper already in tow, few would’ve envisioned the Phillies landing two of the top corner outfielders available. The implementation of the universal designated hitter does afford room in the lineup for all three players. The Phils aren’t leaving manager Joe Girardi much flexibility to rotate anyone else through the DH spot — and Harper’s been a full-time DH of late after suffering a small tear in the UCL of his throwing elbow — but the Phils have thrown defense to the wind in efforts to create an elite run-scoring group.

That’s a decision that came with its share of detractors, but it’s not without logic. Adding at least one corner outfielder opposite Harper was a necessity. Also bolstering center field would’ve been more straightforward, but the alternatives there were limited. Starling Marte was the only regular available in free agency. Players like Kevin Kiermaier, Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins and even Joey Gallo were floated as possible trade candidates, but none of that group wound up changing hands. Faced with that dearth of center field options, the Phils pivoted to bringing in position player talent where opportunities presented themselves.

Would they have been better off instead signing Marte, whose deal was a near-match for Schwarber’s, alongside Castellanos? One could make that case. Yet the club was seemingly more content with the longer-term projection for Schwarber, who is four years younger than Marte with a game much less reliant on athleticism. Time will tell whether they should’ve more aggressively tried to keep the latter from the division-rival Mets, but there’s no denying the Phillies markedly improved the lineup.

That’s also true of the bullpen, where the club devoted essentially all of its remaining resources. The Phils avoided any long-term commitments there but promised a decent chunk of the 2022 payroll to typically-reliable veterans in an effort to raise the floor in the middle innings. Philadelphia landed Corey Knebel for one year and $10MM, a solid price point after the righty bounced back with a 2.45 ERA and a 29.7% strikeout rate over 27 outings for the Dodgers last season. Knebel’s 2019-20 campaigns were mostly wiped away by Tommy John surgery, and he lost a couple months to a lat injury in 2021. There are obvious durability concerns, but Knebel’s been a solidly above-average reliever when healthy since his 2017 breakout with the Brewers.

The Phils’ other bullpen pickups were more “buy low” dice rolls on formerly elite late-inning arms. Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia inked matching $6MM guarantees during Spring Training. Each was among the best relievers in the game a few years ago, but they’ve both taken steps back as they’ve entered their 30s. Hand’s velocity and swing-and-miss rate have fluctuated over the past couple seasons; Familia’s arm strength and whiffs have remained strong, but he’s been prone to bouts of wildness and occasional home run issues.

The pickups of Hand and Familia were generally reminiscent of last winter’s shot on Archie Bradley. The team has continuously shied away from longer-term commitments to relievers, seemingly averse to the volatility that plagues many late-inning arms. Attacking the bullpen with bulk lower-leverage types hasn’t worked for the Phils in years past, but it’s also hard to blame the organization for spreading their resources around. They lost Bradley, Héctor Neris and midseason trade acquisition Ian Kennedy to free agency, leaving multiple bullpen spots to plug.

Among returning relievers with 20-plus innings, only Connor Brogdon posted an ERA south of 4.00 last season. Bailey Falter and the currently-injured Sam Coonrod were the only two arms with respectable strikeout and walk numbers. José Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are the other holdovers, joining the free agent trio of Knebel, Hand and Familia as Girardi’s most trusted arms in high-leverage spots. A trio of smaller offseason acquisitions — trade pickups Nick Nelson and James Norwood, and minor league signee Andrew Bellatti — round out the middle innings.

While the Phillies almost completely revamped last season’s bullpen, they left the starting rotation entirely unaffected. Wheeler, Aaron Nola, 2021 breakout Ranger Suárez, midseason trade pickup Kyle Gibson, and Zach Eflin are all back as the starting five. The early results have been just alright, but that’s one of the strongest on-paper groups in the majors. The Phillies probably could’ve done more to add some depth, given how thin the rotation mix is beyond that top five, but they’re clearly confident in the primary group to stay healthy and assume the bulk of the innings throughout the summer.

Castellanos and Schwarber proved the major additions on the position player side, with the rest of the unit largely status quo. J.T. Realmuto is one of the game’s best catchers. The Phils made small moves from a depth perspective, waiving Andrew Knapp and acquiring Garrett Stubbs from the Astros and Donny Sands from the Yankees. Realmuto will play as much as any backstop around the league so long as he’s healthy.

The infield consists of holdovers Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Alec Bohm and the aforementioned Stott/Gregorius tandem at shortstop. The Phils added former Brave Johan Camargo on a cheap one-year pact as utility depth, essentially replacing Ronald Torreyes in that role. Camargo has earned some early playing time with a respectable start. He’s a good defender at third base, offering Girardi a possible late-game alternative there to the bat-first Bohm, and he can cover the middle infield as needed.

Aside from shortstop, the one position the Phillies identified as a target area but didn’t meaningfully address wound up being center field. After missing on Marte and their trade targets, the club circled back to Herrera on a significantly cheaper deal than the $9MM option decision they’d passed up to open the winter.

The switch-hitting Herrera was fine but not great as the primary center fielder last season, and the options behind him aren’t certain. Mickey Moniak is on the injured list, Matt Vierling has an unspectacular minor league track record, and Simón Muzziotti has barely played above High-A. Roman Quinn was cut loose at the end of last season but brought back after failing to crack the Marlins’ roster out of Spring Training. He has returned to the majors as a defensive specialist and pinch-running option.

The Phillies nevertheless dealt away from their center field group, having soured on former eighth overall pick Adam Haseley. The former University of Virginia star has never hit much in the majors, and he didn’t perform well in Triple-A last season. The Phils dealt him to the White Sox for minor league reliever McKinley Moore, a move that was no doubt easier to swallow since Haseley had been drafted by the previous front office regime.

Time will tell whether the Phillies did enough to finally put forth a better than average on-field product. The early results don’t jump off the page; they’ve started 18-19, albeit with a +18 run differential. They enter play Thursday in second place in the NL East, six games back of the hot-starting Mets.

Anything short of a Wild Card berth would count as a failure. The organization has continued to aggressively add from the outside, and this latest spending spree took them into new territory financially. Signing Castellanos pushed the Phils’ season-opening payroll to around $229MM, shattering last year’s franchise record of approximately $191MM. For the first time in franchise history, owner John Middleton is likely to pay a luxury tax penalty, as the club’s estimated $236MM+ CBT hit is more than $6MM north of the $230MM base threshold. The fee for moderately exceeding the base threshold for the first time is marginal in the context of the team’s overall spending — roughly $1.2MM, pending future acquisitions — but it’s nevertheless a notable symbolic marker for the organization to cross.

That win-now mentality is unlikely to stop, and the Phillies figure to be aggressive around the trade deadline if they’re in contention as expected. Philadelphia’s farm system is generally regarded as one of the league’s worst, but no organization is entirely devoid of minor league talent. The Phils struck to acquire Gibson and Kennedy from the Rangers at last summer’s deadline. Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld and their staff will be equally eager to add this time around — with the bullpen, center field and perhaps back end of the rotation standing out as potential needs.

With more than ten years in the rearview mirror since the last playoff appearance, the Phillies are feeling as much pressure as any team in baseball to show results. Missing the postseason again would raise plenty of questions about the franchise’s outlook — with particular scrutiny likely to mount about Girardi, who’s in the final guaranteed season of a three-year contract. There’s enough talent here to expect to compete, but overarching concerns about the bullpen, defense and roster depth will persist until they start winning consistently.

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Kirby, Hall, Stott, Brujan

By Brad Johnson | May 13, 2022 at 1:16pm CDT

This week, we check in on three prospects already in the Majors and two more on their way.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (AAA)
26 PA, 1 HR, .200/.385/.350

After quickly trouncing High- and Double-A competition, Rutschman has settled into Triple-A over the last week. While his stats at Norfolk aren’t yet glowing, he is nearing a promotion, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic. First, he has a couple boxes to tick to complete his rehab journey from a triceps injury. The most important step is starting at catcher multiple days in a row. Thus far, he’s caught only three of six games in Triple-A. Encouragingly, he delivered his first home run of the season on Thursday. He’s also demonstrating the quality plate discipline and contact skills associated with his previous rise through the system.

Connolly believes a promotion will come this month and perhaps as soon as next week. While many would undoubtedly like to see him arrive on Monday for the start of a home stand, that might be too soon for Rutschman to complete his rehab goals. Next weekend or the following week make for reasonable expectations.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)
6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 10.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9

Last week’s Big Hype Prospects noted the potential for Kirby to fill Matt Brash’s spot in the Seattle rotation. That potential became reality on Sunday. Against the Rays, he faced 21 batters, allowing four hits and recording seven strikeouts. He did a fair amount of nibbling in his debut – only roughly half of his offerings were in the strike zone. Despite this, he was efficient, needing just under four pitches per batter. He also induced 14 whiffs out of 81 pitches thrown. He mostly relied on his fastball and slider while showing the occasional curve and changeup.

As several observers noted, Kirby’s fastball velocity plunged throughout the game. Six innings and 21 batters faced both stand out as season-highs, and it’s fair to wonder if debut jitters had him overamped in the early innings. Kirby’s next test comes Saturday against the Mets. We’ll want to see if he shifts how he uses his four-pitch repertoire, and if he can maintain his velocity from beginning to end.

D.L. Hall, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 12.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9

Hall’s preparation for the season has taken him on a similar path to Rutschman. They probably could have shared transportation from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A. Hall’s stuff is truly electric. The southpaw can sit around 96-mph, and his fastball has natural carry. He complements it with two wipeout breaking balls and an effective changeup. Besides health, command is his primary shortcoming. However, he showed signs of turning a corner last season. Comparisons to Josh Hader abound. Remember, Hader had a chance to stick in the rotation before he proved too valuable as a reliever.

Injuries and poor command have prevented Hall from topping 100 innings in a season. The Orioles front office undoubtedly wants to take it slow while getting him ready for an expanded role in future seasons. He’s faced between 12 and 15 batters in his three starts, a sign he might be used as an opener or bulk reliever this season. That would also be an effective way to get him a full season of outings without a burdensome workload.

Bryson Stott, 24, SS, PHI (MLB)
(AAA) 40 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .333/.375/.611

Stott made the Phillies out of Spring Training then proceeded to flop. He hit just .133/.161/.167 in 31 plate appearances. Upon a demotion to Triple-A, his bat immediately awakened. He delivered multiple hits in five of nine games played. The sole red flag was a 25 percent strikeout rate which, while not egregious by leaguewide standards, is on the high side for him. Still, we’re talking a couple extra strikeouts in a small sample. An injury to Didi Gregorius necessitated Stott’s recall. The Phillies hope Gregorius can return sometime next week. In four games since returning, Stott has one hit, one walk, and seven strikeouts in 16 plate appearances.

Vidal Brujan, 24, UT, TB (MLB)
(AAA) 70 PA, 6 SB, .300/.400/.467

Brujan’s offensive template is speed-based. However, despite what many say, he’s not entirely powerless. Think of him as similar to Cardinals utility man Tommy Edman. Both have the capacity to sting the ball even if most of their contact is on the ground. Brujan raised his launch angle in Triple-A Durham last season, launching 12 home runs in 441 plate appearances. He also stole 44 bags. He could age into more power. For now, the focus is on maintaining a low strikeout rate and high BABIP. The Rays have lumped Brujan into their ever-mutating series of platoons. He should receive regular, if unpredictable, playing time.

Five More

Oneil Cruz (23): While his triple-slash of .190/.315/.324 remains an eyesore, Cruz has shown signs of life in his last six games (.304/.467/.565). As Chris Clegg of Fantrax notes, Cruz is capable of Stantonian exit velocities. The Pirates are using Diego Castillo and Rodolfo Castro at shortstop, both of whom are considered second basemen by most scouts.

Riley Greene (21): Greene was on pace to make the Tigers Opening Day roster before breaking his foot. He’s expected to resume baseball activities today. The Tigers could use an upgrade in center field. Greene is a patient slugger who comes with the usual high strikeout rate.

Josh Lowe (24): Lowe was demoted to Triple-A in early May. The results are mixed. His .207/.303/.552 batting line is above-average mostly thanks to three home runs in 33 plate appearances. He’s also too strikeout prone at the moment. His 18 punch outs equate to 54.5 percent of plate appearances.

Chase Silseth (22): Although lacking in “big hype,” Silseth has flown through the Angels system. He’ll start for the big-league club tonight, skipping Triple-A in the process. Overall, he’s tossed just 31.1 innings in the minors. The right-hander had a 1.73 ERA in 26 Double-A innings complimented by 12.81 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, and an 18.5 percent swinging strike rate.

Royce Lewis (23): Our lead story last week, Lewis has held his own through 21 plate appearances. Overall, he has six hits and four strikeouts, good for a .286/.286/.333 line. He does not appear to be overmatched. Carlos Correa returns soon.

10 Potential Trade Deadline Rental Bats Off To Strong Starts

By Tim Dierkes | May 11, 2022 at 10:55pm CDT

As always, this year’s trade deadline will prominently feature many players who will be eligible for free agency after the season. Here’s a look at 10 rental hitters off to strong starts who could be available in trade. All of the teams included in this post currently feature playoff odds below 35%.

Josh Bell, Nationals: 178 wRC+. Off to a blistering start, Bell has sliced his strikeout rate to less than 10% in the early going. There’s a strong chance the Nats send him to a contender this summer. The Twins would make for a nice fit.
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox: 157 wRC+. There’s little question Bogaerts will opt out of his contract after the season, but the 10-19 Red Sox at least have a fighting shot at the playoffs this year (FanGraphs gives a 21.8% chance). If the team fades further, it’ll make sense to put Bogaerts on the market. However, Bogaerts has full no-trade protection, so he controls his fate. The Angels and Cardinals could make for good matches.
Brandon Drury, Reds: 157 wRC+. Drury showed some pop last year for the Mets as well, and he has a .274/.324/.524 line with 10 home runs in 182 plate appearances since 2021. And Drury does have the Statcast hard-hit data to back up his success this year. He joined the Reds on a minor league deal in March, and the 29-year-old figures to be spun into some kind of modest trade deadline return.
Willson Contreras, Cubs: 148 wRC+. Contreras figures to be highly sought after at the trade deadline, especially with the average catcher putting up an 81 wRC+. Unless the Cubs change their mind about extending their soon-to-be-30-year-old longtime backstop, he’s quite likely to be dealt. The Guardians or Mets could make sense.
J.D. Martinez, Red Sox: 148 wRC+. Of the three Red Sox regulars who are actually hitting this year, two of them are headed toward free agency after the season. And Rafael Devers isn’t far behind. Martinez is earning a hefty $19.375MM this year and can block trades to three teams.
Ben Gamel, Pirates: 142 wRC+. Gamel is one of a handful of bright spots on the Pirates, but he’s also earning only $1.8MM this year and is slated for free agency.
Andrew Benintendi, Royals: 133 wRC+. There’s a chance the Royals extend Benintendi, but as of now he’s on track for free agency. He hasn’t shown much pop this year, but he’s sixth in the AL with a .330 batting average.
Jean Segura, Phillies: 128 wRC+. Like the Red Sox, the Phillies are another potential trade deadline seller that isn’t out of contention yet. Segura, who is earning $14.25MM this year and has a $17MM option for ’23, does have full no-trade protection.
Jesus Aguilar, Marlins: 122 wRC+. The Marlins’ first baseman hasn’t hit for much power this year, but with the deadened baseballs, standards have changed. There’s a good chance he’s traded.
Tommy Pham, Reds: 118 wRC+. The Reds have limited trade bait on the position player side, but Drury and Pham figure to be sent packing.

Though this post is focused on trade targets who have hit well through the season’s first month, the rental market will certainly feature others with track records of success, such as Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, and Adam Frazier.

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