Tigers Have Just One Guaranteed Contract Beyond 2020 Season
2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Tigers … whose list features just one man but a fair bit of money:
(click to expand/view detail list)
Tigers Total Future Cash Obligation: $102MM
*includes buyout of 2024 club option over Miguel Cabrera
*2024-25 club options over Cabrera ($30MM apiece) vest with top-10 finish in 2023 MVP voting
Universal DH Could Give Former MVP Contender Another Chance
If a 2020 major league season does occur, there’s a good chance that the designated hitter will come to the National League. With that in mind, MLBTR has been taking a look at how the rule could affect the NL’s 15 teams. We’ve already focused on the Giants, Brewers, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Reds, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. We’ll now turn our attention to the Marlins, who are not expected to push for a playoff spot this year (you never know in a shortened season, though) but do have at least one well-known player who could benefit from the NL barring pitchers from hitting.
While it seems like ancient history now, outfielder Matt Kemp was once among the most valuable players in baseball. Now 35 years old, Kemp had several productive years with the Dodgers from 2006-14, during which he combined for a .292/.349/.495 line (128 wRC+) with 182 home runs, 170 stolen bases and 25.1 fWAR in 4,496 plate appearances. Kemp even nearly won an MVP in that time, finishing second to the Brewers’ Ryan Braun in 2011.
Even at the height of his powers as a hitter, questions abounded in regards to Kemp’s defense, and they haven’t subsided. Kemp has thus far accounted for an awful minus-133 Defensive Runs Saved with a minus-102.7 Ultimate Zone Rating during his career. Worsening matters, Kemp’s offensive numbers began deteriorating in 2014, the last year during his first Dodgers stint, and have mostly continued to do so since they traded him to the Padres in December 2014.
Since he first donned a San Diego uniform, Kemp has batted .272/.314/.467 (good for a fairly mediocre 107 wRC+) in 2,355 trips to the plate with the Padres and a couple other teams. Last season was especially horrible for Kemp, who totaled a paltry 62 PA with the Reds and hit .200/.210/.283 (20 wRC+). The seven-time 20-home run man only managed one HR in Cincinnati, which released him in early May, and he was unable to make his way to the Mets after they inked him to a minor league contract toward the end of May. They wound up releasing Kemp in July after a short and dismal run with their Triple-A affiliate.
In fairness to Kemp, a broken rib played some role in his nightmarish 2019. It’s also worth noting he’s only two seasons removed from a quality offensive performance in 2018, when he slashed .290/.338/.481 (122 wRC+) with 21 homers in his one-year return to the Dodgers en route to his third All-Star bid. Kemp couldn’t find a guaranteed contract this past offseason after last year’s fiasco, though, leading the non-contending Marlins to take a chance on him on a minors pact.
Considering Kemp’s falling offense and his subpar defense, he looked like a long shot to make the Miami roster when the club added him. However, between a universal DH and expanded rosters, Kemp may well receive a legitimate opportunity to revive his career this year. But there are other members of the Marlins – Matt Joyce, Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar are clear examples – who could rack up DH at-bats if Kemp’s not up to the task.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Which 15 Players Should The Tigers Protect In An Expansion Draft?
In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR. Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve done the Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles. The Tigers are next.
We’ll start by removing free agents Jordan Zimmermann, Cameron Maybin, Ivan Nova, Austin Romine, Jonathan Schoop, and C.J. Cron from consideration.
Miguel Cabrera goes on the protected list by virtue of his no-trade clause. We’ll also add the Tigers’ vaunted trio of pitching prospects, who have a 2020 ETA: Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal. I’ll put Matthew Boyd on the list as well. So we’ll lock these five down:
Casey Mize
Matt Manning
Tarik Skubal
Matthew Boyd
Miguel Cabrera
With a lot of flexibility on their protected list, the Tigers would be in a good position to make some trades with other clubs with tighter lists. We’re left with 10 spots for these 23 players:
Tyler Alexander
Jeimer Candelario
Harold Castro
Willi Castro
Jose Cisnero
Travis Demeritte
Buck Farmer
Michael Fulmer
Bryan Garcia
Niko Goodrum
Grayson Greiner
Eric Haase
Joe Jimenez
JaCoby Jones
Dawel Lugo
David McKay
Daniel Norris
Victor Reyes
Jake Rogers
John Schreiber
Gregory Soto
Christin Stewart
Spencer Turnbull
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below, select exactly ten players you think the Tigers should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
Which 15 Players Should The Indians Protect In An Expansion Draft?
In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR. Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve done the White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles. The Indians are next.
We’ll start by removing Cesar Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and Sandy Leon from consideration since they’ll be free agents after the season. Carlos Santana has a relatively pricey $17.5MM club option, so we’ll remove him as well. Roberto Perez has more affordable club options on 2021 and ’22, so we’ll include him in the poll. I’m only going to lock in these five players:
Francisco Lindor
Mike Clevinger
Shane Bieber
Jose Ramirez
Brad Hand
That means you get most of the control here, as you can choose 10 of the following 26 players:
Greg Allen
Logan Allen
Christian Arroyo
Jake Bauers
Bobby Bradley
Carlos Carrasco
Yu Chang
Adam Cimber
Emmanuel Clase
Aaron Civale
Delino DeShields
James Hoyt
James Karinchak
Jordan Luplow
Phil Maton
Oscar Mercado
Tyler Naquin
Roberto Perez
Zach Plesac
Adam Plutko
Franmil Reyes
Jefry Rodriguez
Domingo Santana
Nick Wittgren
Hunter Wood
Bradley Zimmer
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below, select exactly ten players you think the Indians should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
Giants’ Bargain Pickup Looks More Valuable With Universal DH
With the likely implementation of a universal DH in 2020, we’ve been taking a team-by-team trip through the NL and looking at how those clubs could handle the rule change. To this point, we’ve looked at the Dodgers, Reds, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Braves, Nationals and Brewers. The Giants are up next.
When Hunter Pence bid farewell to the Giants after the 2018 season, there were questions about whether the affable slugger would ever have his name penciled into a big league lineup again. Heading into his age-36 season, he’d posted a combined .249/.297/.368 batting line in 787 plate appearances across the two prior campaigns.
Pence persevered, heading to the Dominican Winter League to work on a revamped swing and ultimately landing a minor league deal with his hometown Rangers. He parlayed that non-guaranteed pact into a prominent role with the Rangers, hitting .297/.358/.552 with 18 dingers in 316 plate appearances before an oblique injury cut his season short. That effort was enough to generate multiple offers, and late in the offseason, Pence signed up for a reunion tour in San Francisco.
The stage seemed set for Pence to hold down a part-time role — an occasional outfielder and frequent pinch-hitter who could serve as a mentor for some younger players as they graduated to the big leagues on a rebuilding club. That could still be the idea, but with the DH likely on its way to the NL, Pence could also be a more prominently used piece now. He started 46 games at designated hitter for Texas last season and surely would have been in that spot more, were it not for the presence of 37-year-old Shin-Soo Choo, who got the DH nod on 62 occasions of his own.
The Giants have other players they can rotate through the DH spot and might look at its addition as a means of getting longer looks at each of Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson and Jaylin Davis — each of whom is best suited for corner outfield work. Against left-handed opponents in particular, the Giants might favor using the DH spot as a means of getting righties Pence, Davis, Austin Slater and Wilmer Flores into the lineup together. Former first-rounder Chris Shaw logged a combined .294/.360/.559 slash with 28 homers in 492 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’d add a lefty stick to the mix.
Let’s also not forget a pair of notable minor league signings made by San Francisco this winter: Pablo Sandoval and Darin Ruf. The Kung Fu Panda has batted .259/.311/.466 with 23 homers and 33 doubles in 548 plate appearances since returning to the Giants in 2018. He’s on the mend from Tommy John surgery but should be ready to go if play is able to resume in 2020. Ruf, 33, is returning stateside after dominating the Korea Baseball Organization with a .313/.404/.564 slash through three seasons with the Samsung Lions (2017-19).
Might the universal DH spur the Giants to finally take the plunge on a signing of Yasiel Puig? The two sides have been connected at numerous points over the past several months, and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is quite familiar with Puig after spending five years as the Dodgers’ general manager. Puig could potentially add some life to what was a listless Giants lineup in 2019, ranking in the bottom four of all MLB teams in terms of runs scored, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. Of course, he’d also take playing time away from some more controllable pieces.
Even if the Giants don’t add to their current group, a new way to increase Pence’s at-bats while keeping him fresh should help that deal to pay dividends. And if there’s some form of updated trade deadline, the addition of a DH spot for the other 14 other NL clubs would only increase interest in acquiring an affordable veteran who is lauded as one of the game’s great clubhouse personalities. There’s also a scenario, as explored by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman, where ballyhooed catching prospect Joey Bart could make his debut and get some additional work thanks to the forthcoming DH slot in the NL.
Which 15 Players Should The White Sox Protect In An Expansion Draft?
In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR. Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve done the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles. The White Sox are next.
First, we’ll take Edwin Encarnacion, Gio Gonzalez, Steve Cishek, Kelvin Herrera, Leury Garcia, Alex Colome, and James McCann out of consideration, because they’ll be free agents after the season (although some have club options). We’ll lock in Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, and Jose Abreu on our protected list due to no-trade protection in their contracts. I’m also going to lock in these eight players:
Yoan Moncada
Lucas Giolito
Eloy Jimenez
Luis Robert
Michael Kopech
Nick Madrigal
Tim Anderson
Dylan Cease
That leaves four spots for the following 14 players:
Carlos Rodon
Nomar Mazara
Evan Marshall
Reynaldo Lopez
Adam Engel
Jace Fry
Aaron Bummer
Carson Fulmer
Jose Ruiz
Jimmy Cordero
Zack Collins
Ian Hamilton
Danny Mendick
Seby Zavala
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below, select exactly four players you think the White Sox should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
Remembering The Best Minor League Signing In Rays History
After six seasons in the big leagues, Carlos Pena found himself at a crossroads heading into the 2006-07 offseason. Heading into his age-29 season, Pena had hit .243/.331/.459 with 86 homers over his first 1925 plate appearances in the Show, good for an above-average 109 wRC+ and 111 OPS+. Yet while it was incorrect to say that Pena had truly struggled, there was certainly a sense that the 10th overall pick of the 1998 draft had underachieved.
Five different organizations, after all, had already parted ways with Pena over those first six seasons. The Rangers (Pena’s original draft team) and A’s both dealt him, and the 2006 season saw the Tigers and Yankees both release the slugger. An 18-game stint with the Red Sox ended up being Pena’s only taste of Major League action in 2006, and he headed into free agency that winter again looking for another opportunity.
That next chance came in Tampa Bay, as Pena signed a minor league deal with the then-Devil Rays in February 2007. Since player payroll was as much of an issue for the Rays then as it is now, the club was constantly on the lookout for low-cost acquisitions, and a minors deal for Pena seemed like a worthwhile flier. That said, Pena had been reassigned to Tampa’s minor league camp and could potentially have been an expendable piece once again had Greg Norton not suffered an injury just prior to Opening Day. With a sudden vacancy at first base, Pena was inked to a Major League contract and found a place on the 25-man roster.
The rest, as they say, was history. As Pena celebrates his 42nd birthday today, he can look back with pride on a big league career that spanned 14 seasons, with the apex of that career coming in a Rays uniform. From 2007-10, Pena went from being an under-the-radar signing to a major contributor to Tampa becoming a winning franchise.
After a bit of a slow start in April, Pena caught fire the rest of the way over the 2007 season. He hit .282/.411/.627 over 612 PA, ranking second among all batters in OPS+ (172) and fourth in both home runs (46), and wRC+ (167). Fangraphs’ isolated power metric also indicated that Pena boasted the most pure power of any hitter in baseball that season, with a league-best .345 mark.
That enormous breakout earned Pena a Silver Slugger Award, AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors, and a ninth-place finish in AL MVP voting. It also earned him a three-year, $24.125MM extension that offseason, giving him some security after beginning his career in such itinerant fashion. From the Rays’ perspective, they were making a sizeable commitment by their standards, yet that contract also yielded a huge return for the team.
While Pena never again matched his huge 2007 numbers, he delivered three more quality seasons over the length of the extension, hitting .224/.353/.479 with 98 homers from 2008-10. In addition to that big bat, Pena also provided some excellent glovework at first base, earning a Gold Glove in 2008.
Perhaps most importantly, of course, Pena also helped the Rays (who were now officially the Rays, having dropped the “Devil” portion of their name after the 2007 season) finally become relevant. After 10 straight losing seasons, Tampa Bay shocked the baseball world by not just getting over the .500 mark, but also winning the AL East and the American League pennant before losing to the Phillies in the World Series. After dipping to an 84-76 record in 2009, the Rays won another division title in 2010, though they were beaten by the Rangers in the ALDS.
These two postseason trips ended up being the only playoff baseball of Pena’s career. While he didn’t hit much during the World Series, Pena was an otherwise stellar performer in October, hitting .269/.388/.522 with four homers over 80 postseason PA.
Pena’s career arc is a prime example of why every offseason sees teams hand out minors contracts and Spring Training invitations to all manner of veteran players. While many of those veterans end up being roster filler or don’t make it to the end of camp, there’s virtually no risk involved on the club’s part, it only takes one of those minor league deals to hit for a front office to look like geniuses — you never know when a change of scenery could turn an underachiever into a late bloomer. Just when Pena’s career looked to be on the downswing, his revival in Tampa led to eight more seasons in the majors and a special place in the memories of Rays fans.
The Nationals’ Deadline Dandy
Last year’s July 31 trade deadline featured plenty of notable deals, including the Astros’ last-minute acquisition of Zack Greinke; the Cubs’ trade for Nicholas Castellanos; the three-team swap involving Trevor Bauer, Yasiel Puig, and Franmil Reyes; and more. Overshadowed in that commotion was a trade went largely under the radar at the time, but wound up being perhaps one of the most important deals made last year.
The Nationals agreed to a swap with the Blue Jays, sending minor league right-hander Kyle Johnston to Toronto in exchange for then-32-year-old reliever Daniel Hudson. After beginning his career as a successful starter with the Diamondbacks, Hudson had since been moved to the bullpen, making stints with the Pirates, Dodgers, and then the Blue Jays.
To that point, Hudson had pitched 48 innings for the Blue Jays, striking out a batter per inning and posting an even 3.00 ERA. Make no mistake, he was viewed as a fine bullpen addition for Washington, but he alone wouldn’t solve all the Nats’ relief issues, and many would have preferred GM Mike Rizzo to make a play for Detroit’s Shane Greene, who was sent to the Braves.
For the remainder of the regular season, Hudson would go on to pitch to a stellar 1.44 ERA with the Nationals, pitching 25 innings and striking out 23. He proved to be less prone to walking batters, decreasing his BB/9 from 4.3 with Toronto to just 1.4 with the Nats.
That’s great, but he really found himself thrust into the spotlight with his postseason performance, serving as one of the most reliable arms in the Washington bullpen, helping to a World Series title.
He pitched in nine postseason games for the Nats, throwing 9 2/3 innings and striking out 10. He only surrendered 4 runs, 3 of which came in a clunker WS Game 5. He pitched again in the decisive Game 7, and is notable for recording the final out of the series for the Nats, striking out Houston’s Michael Brantley. The Nats won eight of the games in which he appeared, though of course that’s probably a chicken and egg situation.
In recent years, we’ve by and large seen workhorse starting pitchers go the way of the dinosaur, especially in postseason play: teams are relying increasingly on a cohort of stingy relief pitchers in October games. But the 2019 Nationals flipped that trend on its head, delegating the vast majority of innings to Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez, and Patrick Corbin–sometimes even deploying their starters in relief roles. That foursome combined to account for just about 70% of Washington’s postseason innings.
The Nats’ bullpen was a weakness all year, and many viewed that weakness as one of the biggest obstacles to their postseason success. But they simply chose to minimize that weakness on the backs of their starters; if the bullpen simply doesn’t pitch, it can’t hurt you, right?
And like we said before, one man cannot solve an entire team’s bullpen problems, but his impact is much greater when the team is only relying on three or four relievers consistently. With the aforementioned quartet picking up so much of the slack, Dave Martinez didn’t need all of his bullpen to perform; instead, he could delegate most of the relief work to Hudson, Sean Doolittle, and Tanner Rainey. Evidently, the strategy worked, and if there’s a team in baseball that can afford to put so much on the shoulders of its starters, the Nationals are probably it.
His performance with his new club earned him a new contract, with the Nats re-signing Hudson to a two-year, $11MM deal that will keep him in Washington through the 2021 season. He’ll play this season at age 33 and with a newfound popularity. We’ll see if he can replicate the success that endeared him to Nationals fans.
An Under The Radar Potential Trade Chip In San Francisco
The Giants’ acquisition of Trevor Gott came without fanfare and at virtually no cost; he was acquired from the Nationals last February for cash considerations, part of a seemingly endless churn at the back end of the 40-man roster in Farhan Zaidi’s first season at the helm. Gott might find himself back on the trade market this season (if play becomes feasible), and he’d figure to return quite a bit more than cash this time around.
Gott had a somewhat promising debut with the 2015 Angels, riding a monster 57.2% ground ball rate to a 3.02 ERA in 48 games. He was flipped to Washington that offseason for Yunel Escobar, but his career went off the rails. In parts of three seasons, he compiled a brutal 7.39 ERA over 28 innings with an uninspiring 24:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Quietly, he found a new gear in San Francisco last year, even if his 4.44 ERA wouldn’t suggest it. His strikeout rate spiked to 26.6%, well above his 17.8% mark in Washington and nearly twice as high as that of his time in Anaheim. The 27-year-old also made significant improvements as a strike-thrower. His first-pitch strike rate was up to 60.3%, right around league average. Getting ahead early in counts helped him cut down on walks substantially.
Gott has always been a fastball-reliant arm, but he seemingly changed the shape of his heater. Formerly a sinkerballer, Gott pivoted to heavy use of a four-seam last season, per Brooks Baseball. Predictably, his once elite ground ball numbers vanished, but he more than offset that with a jump in strikeouts. His mid-90’s four-seam fastball doesn’t have the spin and life of the game’s best heaters, but it nevertheless proved a better swing-and-miss offering than his sinker. On the surface, it also seems he had an easier time controlling the straighter offering.
So why was Gott’s run prevention mediocre? Sequencing luck, mostly. Despite holding opposing hitters to a .207/.270/.304 slash, he only stranded 62.5% of baserunners in 2019, an abnormally low mark that figures to rebound. If he can strand runners at something approaching the league average rate of 72.3% (pitchers’ strand rates often vary wildly season-to-season), Gott could be a mid-3.00’s ERA type.
The shortened season and potential expanded postseason would give the Giants a better shot of hanging in contention. Even in this environment, they won’t be considered any kind of favorite, though. Gott would make for a solid, under-the-radar addition to the summer trade market if San Francisco struggles. He comes with three additional seasons of team control, and arbitration salaries for middle relievers are relatively modest.
He wouldn’t return any sort of Godfather offer, but three-plus cheap seasons of an average or better reliever would be plenty valuable to a more immediate contender. Subtle breakthroughs like Gott’s are precisely what Zaidi and the SF front office have hoped to achieve with their constant reshuffling at the back of the roster.
One Trade The Rays Would Like To Have Back
The Rays have a reputation for winning trades, with good reason. They’ve proven especially adept at picking up undervalued assets from other organizations. Just this month, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne has covered three key players on the current roster who were acquired either in minor deals or were seen as lesser-regarded players in a more notable swap.
There’s one prominent example, though, of a player whom the Rays gave up as a secondary piece in a bigger trade, only to watch blossom in his new surroundings: right-hander German Márquez. Even the smartest organizations have their share of misses.
At the time the Rays and Rockies completed their January 2016 four-player swap, it was generally seen as the Corey Dickerson–Jake McGee deal. Dickerson had put up fantastic offensive numbers in parts of three seasons in Colorado, hitting .299/.346/.532 (124 wRC+) with 38 home runs in 921 plate appearances. Even after adjusting for Coors Field, Dickerson looked like a fantastic hitter. There were questions about him defensively, but there was obvious appeal to adding a potential middle-of-the-order bat with four seasons of team control for Tampa Bay.
On the other side, the Rockies most visible acquisition was the final two arbitration seasons of McGee. He’d carved out a masterful run at the back end of the Rays’ bullpen in the four years prior. The Rockies envisioned a left-handed strikeout arm anchoring their relief corps. (That didn’t happen, as McGee has fallen off, particularly after signing an ill-fated three-year deal to return to Colorado as a free agent after 2017).
Despite McGee’s prior dominance, the deal seemed tilted in the Rays’ favor. Dave Cameron, then of Fangraphs, opined that the Dickerson-McGee framework “just doesn’t make any sense for the Rockies.” As MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Jeff Todd explained, “it’s somewhat surprising…the Rockies felt comfortable parting with four years of Dickerson for two years of a reliever, however excellent he may be, and one mid-level pitching prospect. Colorado, of course, may see considerably more in Marquez than others in the industry.”
Maybe the Rockies were truly outliers in evaluating the then-20-year-old pitcher more favorably than the rest of the league. If they were, credit to them. Over the past four seasons, Márquez has handily been the most valuable player in the swap. He’s racked up between 10 and 12 wins above replacement despite not reaching the majors until that September. His curveball, merely projected to average as a prospect, has actually proven one of the better swing-and-miss offerings of its type leaguewide, per Brooks Baseball. Increased reliance on his slider in 2018 coincided with a second big uptick in his strikeout rate. Long an elite strike-thrower, Márquez now has bona fide swing-and-miss stuff to back it up. Colorado doubled down on their faith in him with a $43MM guarantee last spring that could keep Márquez around via club options through 2024.
On the other side, Dickerson was merely a good hitter over two years in Tampa, undone a bit by an aggressive approach. He hit .265/.310/.480 (109 wRC+) in 1177 plate appearances from 2016-17. With his arbitration costs rising, the Rays somewhat surprisingly shipped him to Pittsburgh for Daniel Hudson, whom they subsequently released, and second base prospect Tristan Gray. Both Gray and Kevin Padlo, the second player the Rockies sent to Tampa four years ago, remain in the system as decently-regarded prospects.
The Rays figure to recoup some long-term value from Padlo and Gray, but that’ll likely pale in comparison what Márquez has achieved in Colorado. He stands out as the one who got away for Tampa.