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Revisiting Last Offseason’s Biggest Extensions: Hitters

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We’re on the cusp of spring training, which is also a popular time for teams and players to work out long-term extensions. We saw several of those deals handed out before last season began. Let’s check in on how those pacts look now, beginning with the hitters who inked the five largest extensions of last offseason…

Mike Trout, CF, Angels – 10 years, $360MM: It’s anyone’s guess how this contract will look at the tail end of it (see: Pujols, Albert), but despite the amount, it has the makings of a wise decision at the moment. After all, the 28-year-old Trout, already one of the greatest players in the history of baseball, continued to steamroll the opposition in 2019 – a season in which he earned his eighth straight All-Star nod and the third AL MVP of his career. The Angels really had no choice but to lock up Trout, and had they not done so, he’d be entering a contract year right now. He would also be in prime position to land an even richer contract on the open market less than a year from now.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies – seven years, $234MM: This deal already comes off as questionable for the Rockies, and it’s not because Arenado faded in 2019. On the contrary, the 28-year-old picked up his fifth straight All-Star honors and earned his seventh Gold Glove in a row. But Arenado is now known to be fed up with the Rockies because they haven’t done much to better their roster this winter after a horrid season, and he seems open to a trade as a result. However, his enormous new contract includes an opt-out clause after 2021, so teams probably aren’t champing at the bit to pay for seven years of Arenado in a trade when he could end up spending just two seasons in their uniform. And Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich isn’t just going to give away Arenado, Colorado’s franchise player, no matter how unhappy he may be with the organization. Needless to say, the two sides are in a spot neither expected to be in when they committed to each other for the long haul just months ago.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals – five years, $130MM: Arizona’s version of Goldschmidt was an elite player for most of his tenure there from 2011-18, which led the Cardinals to trade significant talent for him more than a year ago. Unfortunately for the Cards, though, the 2019 edition of Goldschmidt was pedestrian compared to his D-backs self. Goldschmidt wasn’t bad by any stretch, evidenced in part by his 34 home runs and 2.9 fWAR, but the .260/.346/.476 line he posted in 682 plate appearances comes up way short next to his career slash of .292/.391/.524. The drop-off’s not a great sign for a 32-year-old at the beginning of the biggest contract in Cardinals history.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros – five years, $100MM: This has not been a banner winter for the Astros, and if you follow the game at all, you know why. They are coming off a pennant-winning season, though, and Bregman was a key part of it. The 25-year-old was in the inner circle of premier players for the second straight season, slashing .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs and 8.5 fWAR in 690 plate appearances. The Astros still owe Bregman a lot of money, but he’s young enough that it seems safe to say they won’t regret ponying up for him.

Aaron Hicks, CF, Yankees – seven years, $70MM: Thanks to the injuries Hicks has suffered since signing it, this gamble hasn’t worked out to the Yankees’ liking so far. Hicks missed all but 59 games last year while battling back and elbow problems, and when he did play, he wasn’t nearly as effective as he was over the previous couple seasons. Worsening matters, Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow this past October, meaning the 30-year-old will sit out a sizable portion of the upcoming campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

9 Free-Agent Hitters Coming Off Productive Offensive Seasons

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With just about every major free agent already off the board, it’s officially buy-low season across baseball. Plenty of teams are surely searching for diamonds in the rough at this point, and as we’ll explore below, there may be some left on the offensive side. Here are the still-unsigned hitters who had the most productive years at the plate in 2019…

Hunter Pence, OF/DH – .297/.358/.552 (128 wRC+) in 316 plate appearances

  • The former star’s career looked to have flamed out a year ago at this time, but Pence took a minor league contract with the Rangers and enjoyed a resurgence at the plate. The right-handed Pence provided quality production against righty and lefty pitchers alike, clubbed 18 home runs and earned solid marks from Statcast (including for his speed, which is unexpected for a 36-year-old). Pence’s age, the injuries he dealt with last season and the fact that he didn’t play the field much in 2019 are all causes for concern, though, and have likely played a role in the fact that he hasn’t found a new deal so far this offseason. A reunion with the Giants – with whom he wouldn’t be able to DH – could be in the offing, however.

Cameron Maybin, OF – .285/.364/.494 (127 wRC+) in 269 plate appearances

  • Another ex-Giant (among other teams), Maybin surprisingly emerged as one of the unsung heroes for the injury-ravaged Yankees, who acquired him from Cleveland in late April in what looked like a minor trade at the time. Maybin proceeded to turn in one of his finest seasons at the plate, swatting 11 home runs and swiping nine bases along the way. He also proved to still be a viable outfield option at the age of 32, combining for scratch defense (zero DRS, minus-0.2 UZR) in the grass, though the longtime center fielder didn’t see much action there. Maybin said back in October he wanted to re-sign with the Yankees, but there hasn’t been any indication that they’re going to bring him back. Pittsburgh’s a possibility, though.

Brad Miller, INF/ OF – .260/.329/.565 (126 wRC+) in 170 plate appearances

  • Miller hasn’t turned into the standout many expected when he was a prospect, but he has typically been able to offer passable offense while playing several positions (albeit not that well, per the defensive metrics). Last season was pretty much the same story for the well-traveled 30-year-old, but he gave the Phillies much more than they could’ve realistically hoped for upon acquiring him from the Indians in the middle of June. That said, it’s worth noting the left-handed Miller wasn’t an option for the Phils against southpaws, nor has he performed well against them overall.

Wilmer Flores, INF – .317/.361/.467 (120 wRC+) in 285 plate appearances

  • This has been a quiet winter for Flores since the Diamondbacks bought out his $6MM option after the season, but his market has reportedly begun to pick up. Still just 28, Flores has regularly mixed decent or better offense with defensive versatility, so could be a rather useful pickup for someone heading into 2020.

Domingo Santana, OF/DH – .253/.329/.441 (107 wRC+) in 507 plate appearances

  • The youngest player on this list (27), Santana has flashed tantalizing potential at times – especially during a 3.3-fWAR season with the Brewers in 2017 – but hasn’t been able to put it together on a regular basis. He got off to a hot start as a Mariner last year before tanking in the second half, in part because of a nagging elbow injury. And Santana earned good defensive grades as recently as 2018, but he was among the game’s very worst fielders last season (minus-17 DRS, minus-16.1 UZR). Whether he’ll be limited to mostly DH duties in 2020 remains to be seen, and that’s if he even gets a major league opportunity. No one has been connected to Santana in the rumor mill since the Mariners non-tendered him almost two full months ago.

Brock Holt, INF/OF – .297/.369/.402 (103 wRC+) in 295 plate appearances

  • The 31-year-old Holt has had an up-and-down career, but the longtime member of the Red Sox is like Flores in that he has usually given his team presentable offense and defensive flexibility. Last season was no different, although it was an injury-limited campaign. He’s now one of two MLBTR top 50 free agents still without a job, but the Blue Jays have shown recent interest in him.

Yasiel Puig, OF – .267/.327/.458 (101 wRC+) in 611 plate appearances

  • The other remaining member of MLBTR’s top 50, Puig hasn’t had any luck this offseason in the wake of a disappointing year between both Ohio teams. Puig entered 2019 as someone with a rather productive track record, though, and still has another full season left in his 20s. The colorful Puig seems to be an acquired taste behind the scenes, but there’s a case for several teams to buy low on him and hope he returns to the form he regularly showed as a Dodger.

Brian Dozier, 2B – .238/.340/.430 (99 wRC+) in 482 plate appearances

  • Dozier’s not the hugely powerful, bag-stealing second baseman he was during his halcyon days with the Twins. Still, he provided league-average offense last year as a National and, for the sixth straight season, amassed at least 20 HRs. In other words, a team could definitely do worse at the keystone than the soon-to-be 33-year-old. The Diamondbacks had interest in him as of last weekend, but they’ve since acquired center fielder Starling Marte, which means Ketel Marte will shift to second. Consequently, Dozier to the desert doesn’t appear as if it will happen.

Tim Beckham, INF – .237/.293/.461 (99 wRC+) in 328 plate appearances

  • There are some obvious red flags regarding Beckham. For one, he’ll miss a sizable portion of the season after MLB hit him with an 80-game PED suspension last August. And while Beckham did manage a useful slash line before his year came to an abrupt end, the ex-Mariner struck out 31 percent of the time and didn’t get on base much. Defensively, he had a rough go at short (minus-8 DRS, minus-5.8 UZR) – a key reason the former No. 1 overall pick put up replacement-level production for the second consecutive year.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Reds?

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The Reds entered the offseason on the heels of their sixth straight sub-.500 showing, but president of baseball operations Dick Williams made it known at the end of the campaign that a seventh consecutive subpar effort wouldn’t be acceptable. The team’s goal when the winter began was to build its first playoff-level roster since 2013, and with most of its offseason heavy lifting likely done by now, there’s a case Cincinnati has done just that.

As we noted previously, the Reds have been one of the highest-spending teams in the National League in free agency. They’ve added two $64MM players – infielder Mike Moustakas and newly signed outfielder Nick Castellanos – as well as $21MM outfielder Shogo Akiyama (their first-ever Japanese player) and $15MM left-hander Wade Miley via the open market.

Now, the Reds’ position player cast – a group that finished last season 21st in WAR and 25th in runs – suddenly looks promising with Castellanos, Akiyama and some mix of Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino and Nick Senzel in the outfield, Joey Votto at first base, Moustakas at second and Eugenio Suarez at third. But there are questions in the group, including the health of the 49-home run man Suarez – who could miss the beginning of the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery – and the strength of their catcher and shortstop positions. Both spots looked ripe for upgrades when the offseason began, but the Reds have so far stuck with Tucker Barnhart and Freddy Galvis, respectively, despite their interest in landing a much more formidable option at short. Moreover, there’s the possibility of a Senzel trade, which could provide a helpful return for one of the Reds’ weak spots, but Williams doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to deal the prized 24-year-old.

Meanwhile, there doesn’t appear to be a lot to worry about in the Reds’ starting staff. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and Miley comprise an impressive one to five on paper, though Bauer did have more than a little bit of trouble preventing runs after the Reds acquired him from the Indians last July. The bullpen, although largely untouched this offseason, also boasts its share of stone-cold locks. Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett are all returning after posting respectable or better numbers in 2019.

While it’s nice for the Reds that they’ve bettered their roster since last season’s 75-win effort, it’s also a boon that their division has seemingly taken steps back. The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2019, but they haven’t done anything all that notable since, and they just lost their No. 1 free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, to the Braves. The Brewers – fresh off their second straight playoff season – have seen quite a few changes (good and bad) to their roster, including the losses of Moustakas and an even better free agent in catcher Yasmani Grandal. The Cubs have been quiet after a dismal finish to last season, and it’s still not out of the realm of possibility they’ll trade Kris Bryant or another important member of their roster before the new campaign rolls around. And then there’s the Pirates, who figure to be among the worst teams in the game this year.

Between the improvements they’ve made and the actions (or lack thereof) of their divisional foes, this may be the time for the Reds to return to relevance in the NL. The way their roster looks now, do you think they’re capable of doing so?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The Dodgers Swing A Blockbuster Trade?

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The Dodgers entered the winter in a gloomy state after a bitterly disappointing end to the 2019 season. But the team’s outlook remains exceptionally bright, with a compelling mix of established veterans, elite young talent, and quality role players along with the means to bolster and/or supplement that group as desired.

Despite the Dodgers’ regular-season and postseason successes — the team has seven-straight NL West titles and made it to the World Series in 2017 and 2018 — the lack of a ring and the stunning recent NLDS wash-out have left a lingering sense that something more or different could or even should be done. Reporting indicates there’s an internal a desire to shake things up in some manner, though obviously the front office isn’t inclined to reinvent the wheel.

It’s not unlike the sunny malaise experienced by the organization’s forebears in Brooklyn. Those Dodgers had an enormously successful decade without a crown (1945 to 1954) and fell short in the World Series four times in seven years (1947 to 1953). They waited ’til next year until finally breaking through in 1955.

The present-day Dodgers hope it won’t be quite that dramatic when they finally win it all. But there are quite a few more MLB teams and playoff rounds now than there used to be, making it harder to control randomness. That increases the appeal of prioritizing long-term competitiveness — the Nationals’ own recent breakthrough helps demonstrate this — but also perhaps speaks in favor of maximizing those clear chances that do arise to win it all.

The Dodgers have managed to walk an impressive line between long and short-term goals. Still, it hasn’t come together quite yet. With so many pieces already in place, the focus entering the present offseason was on adding true impact talent. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke of having a dozen-player wish list. While the club has made a few targeted investments in buy-low, high-upside pitchers, it has yet to swing a major deal for a star player.

Surely some or most of the L.A. targets are already off the board in one way or another — all of the top free agents have signed, of course — but there’s little doubt that a few remain available. We’ve long heard, especially, that the Dodgers maintain interest in superstars Mookie Betts of the Red Sox and Francisco Lindor of the Indians. Cleveland ace Mike Clevinger is another who has come up in rumors. And it stands to reason there are a few other high-quality players of interest.

Dodgers president/CEO Stan Kasten said earlier this winter that the organization is “laser-focused” on winning a World Series after coming maddeningly close in recent years. “There are guys that we think could be difference makers and we have pursued them, we are continuing to pursue them, when there is an opportunity we will certainly jump at it,” Kasten explained.

The clock is ticking but there’s time left before Spring Training opens. A mid-camp strike is less likely but perhaps not out of the realm of possibility. So … do you think the Dodgers will pull off a blockbuster before the start of the season?

(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Free Agent Spending By Team: National League

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With the clear exception of the still-unsigned Yasiel Puig, free agency is almost devoid of high-upside contributors at this point. The majority of players capable of securing guaranteed contracts have already come off the board, making this a good time to check in on which teams have spent the most and which clubs have paid the least via the open market. We’ve already gone through the same exercise for the American League, where the Yankees have returned to the top of the heap as the biggest spenders in their league and in the sport in general. Meanwhile, over in the Senior Circuit, reigning world champion Washington clearly isn’t resting on its laurels after a storybook playoff run…

Nationals: $316.75MM on 10 players (Stephen Strasburg, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Starlin Castro, Yan Gomes, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Zimmerman and Kyle Finnegan; financial details unclear for Finnegan; top 50 MLBTR signings: four)

Reds: $164MM on four players (Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley; top 50 signings: four)

Phillies: $132MM on two players (Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius; top 50 signings: two)

Braves: $116.25MM on nine players (Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Darren O’Day, Adeiny Hechavarria; top 50 signings: five)

Diamondbacks: $109.65MM on five players (Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, Hector Rondon, Stephen Vogt and Junior Guerra; top 50 signings: two)

Brewers: $48.38MM on eight players (Avisail Garcia, Josh Lindblom, Justin Smoak, Brett Anderson, Eric Sogard, Alex Claudio, Ryon Healy and Deolis Guerra; financial details unclear for Healy and Guerra; top 50 signings: two)

Padres: $48MM on three players (Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson; top 50 signings: three)

Mets: $24.35MM on four players (Dellin Betances, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Brad Brach; top 50 signings: three)

Marlins: $23.855MM on five players (Corey Dickerson, Brandon Kintzler, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce and Yimi Garcia; financial details unclear for Joyce; top 50 signings: one)

Giants: $17.775MM on four players (Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Tony Watson and Tyler Anderson; top 50 signings: one)

Dodgers: $15.25MM on three players (Blake Treinen, Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson; top 50 signings: one)

Cardinals: $15MM on three players (Adam Wainwright, Kwang-hyun Kim and Matt Wieters; top 50 signings: one)

Cubs: $2.5MM on three players (Steven Souza Jr., Jeremy Jeffress and Ryan Tepera; top 50 signings: zero)

Pirates: Signed OF Guillermo Heredia and C Luke Maile (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)

Rockies: Signed RHP Jose Mujica (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)

And Then There Was One

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By definition, there’ll always be one final major free agent to come off the board. It’s a lonely spot, perhaps, but also one where the market is yours and yours alone. Things rarely shake out quite as might originally have been hoped, but neither does last-man-standing status mean the money has necessarily dried up. We saw two fairly large contracts handed out in the middle of the 2019 season, including a multi-year pact for Craig Kimbrel.

MLBTR’s top 50 list has been picked over rather thoroughly. There are three unsigned players, including a solid relief arm (Pedro Strop) and useful utilityman (Brock Holt). But if we’re being honest, there were others just off the list who could make roughly similar free agent cases. We predicted both players to receive fairly modest guarantees.

So with Nick Castellanos leaving the board yesterday, we can now official declare: this year, the Big Name Yet To Sign is Yasiel Puig. His days as a true star with the Dodgers are distant memories now, but Puig has mostly been productive outside of a poor stretch with the Reds to open the 2019 season. He hit about twenty percent above the league-average rate in the prior two campaigns and finished with a solid run late last year after being dealt to the Indians. Depending upon one’s preferred means of measuring and valuing defense, Puig was a 3-4 WAR player in 2017 and 2018. He’s only just turned 29; perhaps his downtick in 2019 was just a blip.

On the one hand, this isn’t much of a surprise. Much like the three other young corner outfielders on this year’s market, Puig was an awfully tough player to gauge. All the more so in his case … not only does Puig come with some performance questions, but he’s a notably eccentric player whose occasional hijinks may not be fully welcomed by all organizations. But this was hardly inevitable. Puig also has long looked like an intriguing buy-low candidate — one that a value-hunting team might well have targeted from the outset.

Whatever the background, we now have a much clearer picture of the Puig situation than when we predicted he’d take down a one-year, $8MM deal when the market opened. We’ve now seen Castellanos (four years, $64MM), Ozuna (one year, $18MM), and Avisail Garcia (two years, $20MM) set a market that had been ill-defined. And multiple teams have filled openings, of course, even beyond the clubs that inked those players (the Reds, Braves, and Brewers). The Diamondbacks and Marlins have installed multiple outfielders; the White Sox seem to have filled out their lineup.

But that’s not to say that it’s now all that obvious where Puig ought to land. The Tigers — our guess at the outset of the winter — still make sense for all the same reasons. But it’s also possible the club will prefer to preserve its roster flexibility to jump on some intriguing players that shake loose early in 2020. A return to the Indians still makes some amount of sense if the club elects to add back some salary. That the Cleveland org went out and got Puig last year adds to the plausibility.

There are other teams worth considering as possibilities. The Rangers have pursued a righty bat to join a lefty-heavy outfield mix, though whether they’ve got interest in Puig specifically isn’t clear. It’s wild to imagine it, but the Giants are certainly an on-paper fit for the same essential reasons that the Tigers are. You could argue that the Orioles should be as well, even if they already have a few guys on hand that they’d like to give a look to. And why not the Rockies? The club isn’t spending much, but could perhaps find a way to make one bet and could really use the upside. Puig’s right-handed bat would provide much-needed lineup balance.

And what about teams back-filling after trades? The Pirates could be involved in theory, though they’re mostly in need of center field capability and are surely wary of off-field (or on-field) shenanigans after a trying 2019 season. The Mariners previously dropped Domingo Santana and aren’t exactly laden with established talent. And hey, what about the Red Sox? If they end up dealing Mookie Betts, an upside play might be just the ticket.

If we consider timeshare possibilities, the Angels make some sense. The club needs to be willing to accept some risk to turn the corner. Puig could pair with Brian Goodwin while the club waits for Jo Adell to force his way up. The Marlins can still consider Puig as part of a revamped lineup mix, even if they aren’t really set up to install him as an everyday presence. If there’s still an avenue for the Rays to jump in on Puig, it’s a narrow one now that Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena are on hand. But the Tampa Bay organization can surely figure a way to shift things around if it sees a chance to shoehorn in a value opportunity.

It takes some squinting and some balancing of tradeoffs even to imagine a fit for Puig. Just how specific teams feel about the polarizing player, and just what situation he prefers, will no doubt dictate the outcome. But there are plenty of theoretical possibilities.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Starling Marte Trade

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They’re throwing a Marte party in the desert. The Diamondbacks on Monday acquired center fielder Starling Marte from the Pirates in a blockbuster trade that saw shortstop prospect Liover Peguero, young righty Brennan Malone and $250K in international money go to Pittsburgh in return. Arizona now happens to have the top two Martes in the majors in Starling and Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks’ primary center fielder from 2019 who broke out as a star and will now occupy second base most of the time.

For the Diamondbacks, an 85-win team from last year that’s trying to give the Dodgers a better fight in the NL West, the addition of Starling Marte is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. The D-backs’ previous pickups came via the open market, where they signed left-hander Madison Bumgarner, right fielder Kole Calhoun, relievers Hector Rondon and Junior Guerra, and catcher Stephen Vogt.

There are concerns with Marte’s game, including iffy defensive metrics, a past PED suspension and a career-long aversion to drawing walks. Still, he’s unquestionably one of the most valuable center fielders in the sport. The 31-year-old has accounted for at least 3.0 fWAR in each of his six full seasons, and is coming off his second straight 20-20 effort. Marte posted a .295/.342/.503 line with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases across in 586 trips to the plate.

Of course, we’d be remiss not to mention that Marte’s contract only makes him more appealing from Arizona’s standpoint. He’ll earn a fairly economical $11.5MM this year and could make $12.5MM next season if the Diamondbacks exercise his club option in lieu of a $1MM buyout. Assuming Marte continues his steady production in 2020, picking up that option will be a no-brainer for the team.

In Pittsburgh’s case, Marte’s age, waning control and the Pirates’ rebuilding status all combined to send him out of the Steel City after months of trade rumors. It was an understandable decision on new Pirates general manager Ben Cherington’s part to cash in the Marte chip, though there’s dissatisfaction in Pittsburgh that the team’s ultra-low payroll shrunk even more as a result of the deal. The Pirates could put at least some money back into their roster by finding a Marte replacement before the season, which is Cherington’s plan, but they’re unlikely to find a player of his caliber.

Regardless of how the Pirates’ payroll looks in the wake of Marte’s exit, the club did land a couple promising farmhands in Peguero and Malone. Both 19-year-olds are a ways away from major league opportunities, having not gotten past the low-A level yet, but they were seen as two of Arizona’s most intriguing prospects. Two months ago, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked Peguero fifth in the Diamondbacks’ system, comparing him to former D-back Jean Segura. The flamethrowing Malone checked in at No. 10 on the list, meanwhile, with Longenhagen and McDaniel writing that the 33rd overall pick from last year’s draft has “a mid-rotation starter look.”

Thanks to the youth of Peguero and Malone, we’ll have to wait for a while to see how this trade pans out. At first glance, though, how do you like it for both teams? Weigh in below …

(Arizona poll link for app users)

(Pittsburgh poll link for app users)

Free Agent Spending By Team: American League

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As we covered earlier this week, almost all of the prominent free agents in this year’s class have already exited the board. Because of that, we’ll see more and more minor league signings and fewer and fewer major league deals in the weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. This has been an aggressive offseason in terms of spending, though. To this point, which teams have handed out the most guaranteed money via the open market? We’ll examine both leagues, but let’s begin with the AL (reminder: This exercise excludes trades, club options, extensions, waiver claims and Rule 5 selections)…

Yankees: $336.5MM on two players (Gerrit Cole and Brett Gardner; top 50 MLBTR signings: two)

Angels: $260.85MM on three players (Anthony Rendon, Julio Teheran and Jason Castro; top 50 signings: three)

White Sox: $196.5MM on six players (Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion, Steve Cishek and Gio Gonzalez; top 50 signings: five)

Twins: $151.8MM on eight players (Josh Donaldson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Sergio Romo, Alex Avila, Rich Hill and Tyler Clippard; top 50 signings: four)

Blue Jays: $114.35MM on four players (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi and Travis Shaw; top 50 signings: two)

Rangers: $62.25MM on five players (Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Robinson Chirinos, Joely Rodriguez and Todd Frazier; top 50 signings: two)

Tigers: $17.8MM on four players (C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine and Ivan Nova; top 50 signings: one)

Astros: $15.65MM on three players (Joe Smith, Martin Maldonado and Dustin Garneau; top 50 signings: zero)

Rays: $12MM on one player (Yoshitomo Tsutsugo; top 50 signings: zero)

Red Sox: $9.9MM on three players (Martin Perez, Jose Peraza and Kevin Plawecki; top 50 signings: zero)

Athletics: $7.5MM on one player (Jake Diekman; top 50 signings: zero)

Royals: $6.95MM on two players (Alex Gordon and Maikel Franco; top 50 signings: zero)

Indians: $6.25MM on one player (Cesar Hernandez; top 50 signings: zero)

Orioles: $3MM on one player (Jose Iglesias; top 50 signings: zero)

Mariners: $2.95MM on two players (Kendall Graveman and Carl Edwards Jr.; top 50 signings: zero)

The Best Fits For Nicholas Castellanos

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Stop us if you’ve heard this before: a Scott Boras client is the last high-profile name left in free agency. At this point it’s practically a time-honored tradition for the Boras Corporation to have the last big name standing in free agency. It doesn’t always work in the player’s favor, but even many of those who’ve settled for lesser deals — think Mike Moustakas, Dallas Keuchel and, a few years back, Kendrys Morales — have eventually gone on to cash in on sizable multi-year pacts in future offseasons.

Enter Nicholas Castellanos. Heading into free agency, he was a hotly discussed name due to his youth — he’ll turn 28 in March — and the Ruthian finish he had to the 2019 season. Upon being traded to the Cubs, Castellanos erupted with a .321/.356/.646 slash, 16 homers and 21 doubles in just 51 games (225 plate appearances). He connected on an extra-base hit (16.4 percent) nearly as often as he struck out (20.8 percent). Reactionary takes suggesting that he’d punched his ticket to a nine-figure payday never seemed particularly grounded in reality, but a hefty multi-year deal certainly looked (and arguably still looks) likely.

The longstanding question with Castellanos has been his glovework. Were he even an average defender, even in a corner spot, the $100MM+ some speculated following his Cubs bonanza might’ve been conceivable. But Castellanos came up as a third baseman, moved to right field due to defensive deficiencies and has yet to master his new position. He’s improved, in the eyes of most metrics, going from -19 DRS in 2018 to -9 in 2019, -12.9 UZR to -4.4 and -24 OAA to -7. It’s a step in the right direction, but the consensus remains that he’s a questionable defender.

If he’s able to make similar strides in 2020, that perception might change, and it’s worth noting that Castellanos’ problem lies more in poor jumps than his speed, which is above-average, per Statcast. However, Castellanos and Boras are looking for long-term commitments right now, and signing a shorter-term deal would run the risk of his glovework backing up (or of incurring an injury, declining at the plate, etc.). Betting on himself could prove particularly lucrative, given his age, but that’s not a risk that most players would prefer to take — or feel they should have to take coming off a run at the plate as productive as that of Castellanos.

Over the past four seasons, Castellanos is a .286/.336/.504 hitter (120 OPS+, 121 wRC+), and he’s been even better over the past two campaigns (124 OPS+, 126 wRC+). Castellanos isn’t an especially prodigious home run hitter, but his 104 doubles over the past two seasons are seven more than the next-highest mark in the game. Castellanos has still gone deep 50 times in that stretch — including that 16-homer surge in Chicago. (It’s worth pointing out that he’s been a more productive hitter at Detroit’s Comerica Park than on the road, so the ballpark switch probably wasn’t the primary factor.) He might not be in former teammate J.D. Martinez’s territory as far as overall offensive output goes, but Castellanos has been one of baseball’s 30 best hitters since 2018.

Perhaps a sign of the times, Castellanos is looking for a long-term deal in the same offseason that his primary market competitor, Marcell Ozuna, took a one-year deal with the Braves. It’s become tougher and tougher for corner bats to land sizable contracts in recent years — particularly if they’re not considered standout defenders. Ozuna landing in Atlanta removed one potential landing spot for Castellanos, and another dried up earlier this winter when the White Sox filled up their lineup by adding both Nomar Mazara and Edwin Encarnacion.

So where can Castellanos look to find work? Let’s run through some of the best remaining fits…

  • Rangers: Texas could call its outfield full, citing a left-to-right trio of Willie Calhoun, Danny Santana and Joey Gallo. But Gallo surprisingly proved capable of handling center in 2019, and Santana has traditionally struggled there anyhow. The Rangers could shift Santana to a bench role and play Gallo in center to accommodate Castellanos in right. Alternatively, they’ve reportedly discussed signing Castellanos to play first base (an indictment on his defense in and of itself). President of baseball ops Jon Daniels is clearly in win-now mode as the Rangers move into a new ballpark, and adding Castellanos would cap off an aggressive winter in fashion.
  • Indians: Cleveland has shredded its payroll to the point that they’re now projected to have a sub-$100MM payroll and their lowest mark since 2015. They could be looking at their final year with Francisco Lindor in the mix, as owner Paul Dolan has previously signaled that he’s not willing to spend at the level it’d take to lock the superstar shortstop up long-term. The Indians only have $23MM on the books in 2021, and their current corner outfielders will consist of a combination of Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, Delino DeShields Jr., Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Franmil Reyes (who’ll spend time at DH as well) and Bradley Zimmer. Adding Castellanos would put a better spin on an offseason in which the club parted with Corey Kluber and added Cesar Hernandez and Emmanuel Clase. Then again, Cleveland was also mostly idle last winter even as the Twins made some aggressive moves, and now both Minnesota and the White Sox have significantly ramped up their efforts to win.
  • Reds: No one will accuse the Reds of idleness over the past year and a half. They don’t have a clear outfield opening, with newly signed Shogo Akiyama joining Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino in the outfield mix (and several other options on the 40-man roster, including Phil Ervin, Travis Jankowski, Scott Schebler and Jose Siri). But while Aquino exploded with 14 homers in his first 29 MLB games, he followed that up with a catastrophic .196/.236/.382 slash in his second month in the big leagues. He could be optioned to Triple-A, but even then, adding Castellanos wouldn’t leave much room for Winker and his career .285/.379/.466 batting line in the Majors. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this week that the Reds are “still a player” for Castellanos, adding that they made a “spirited” pursuit of Ozuna. But it’s not clear when in the offseason they made their peak offer to Ozuna, and at this point it seems likely that Cincinnati would need to make a trade to accommodate Castellanos. Perhaps that’s just what the organization has in mind if it is able to reach agreement.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals, admittedly, are more of an on-paper fit than anything else. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. publicly indicated recently that an additional splash or further increase in the team’s payroll isn’t likely. Still, the Cards lost Ozuna and now look like they’ll rely on Tyler O’Neill and Lane Thomas in left. It’s possible that one or both (or top prospect Dylan Carlson, who also looms in the upper minors) could emerge as a quality big league contributor, but the currently constructed version of the Cardinals’ lineup will carry its share of questions entering the season. For a club intent on defending a division title, that’s not ideal.
  • Cubs: The Cubs are said to have loved Castellanos in his short time there — how could you not love that type of production? — but ownership has been steadfast in its reluctance to add to the MLB payroll this winter. The Cubs, stunningly, haven’t signed a single free agent to a guaranteed big league salary. They’re awaiting the resolution of Kris Bryant’s service time grievance, and many expect them to shop the former MVP once that happens. Perhaps they’ll just happily take the extra payroll space if they’re able to find a deal, but the temptation to sign Castellanos to a backloaded contract would be strong; the Cubs will have Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana and Daniel Descalso all off the books next year. Perhaps Castellanos will already have signed by that point, but if he’s still out there and the Cubs find a way to shed some payroll, a reunion becomes more likely.
  • Giants: San Francisco was reported to be interested in Castellanos earlier this winter, and there isn’t exactly anyone standing in the way of Castellanos. Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson project as the primary corner outfielders, but both are more than a year older than Castellanos despite their lack of MLB experience. The only year that Yastrzemski has shown any type of sustained power was in 2019’s juiced ball environment, and Dickerson has totaled all of 101 games between the Majors and Triple-A over the past three seasons. The Giants are rebuilding, but Castellanos wouldn’t cost a draft pick, block significant prospects, or put them near the luxury threshold. At the very least, if he winds up settling on a one-year deal, the Giants could do worse than trying to flip him in July or collecting a pick by issuing a QO at season’s end. However, a multi-year deal for a player still in his prime is sensible so long as the team isn’t in all-out tank mode (which doesn’t seem to be the case based on other offseason moves).

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens

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We’ve gone over how the five worst offenses and rotations of last season now look with the offseason nearing completion. We’ll do the same here with the quintet of bullpens that had the most difficulty preventing runs in 2019. Judging a bullpen just by ERA is an admittedly crude method, though each of the relief units in question here also posted subpar fielding-independent metrics. The bottom line is that they struggled. Let’s see how they stack up now…

Baltimore Orioles (5.79 ERA/5.38 FIP; current depth chart)

  • No surprise to see the Orioles at the bottom, considering the rebuilding outfit’s myriad difficulties last season. The Orioles didn’t get particularly impressive production from any of their relievers. Even their No. 1 option, Mychal Givens, had trouble at times, though he did strike out better than 12 batters per nine. Givens is on track to open the season with the Orioles, but he could certainly be an in-season trade candidate. If they move him, it would further weaken a bullpen that hasn’t added anyone of note this offseason.

Washington Nationals (5.68 ERA/4.94 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Nationals proved last season that you can have a bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen from a statistical standpoint and still win the World Series. However, general manager Mike Rizzo’s in-season tinkering with the group proved effective, especially the acquisition of flamethrowing closer Daniel Hudson at the trade deadline. Hudson remains in the fold, having re-signed in free agency for two years and $11MM. In an even bigger move, the Nationals signed Will Harris – a former Astro whom they upended in the Fall Classic – to a three-year, $24MM pact. With those two and the returning Sean Doolittle, Washington appears to be in nice shape late in games, but it’ll need more from Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, Wander Suero and Tanner Rainey.

Colorado Rockies (5.18 ERA/5.12 FIP; current depth chart)

  • There were few oft-used bright spots last season in Colorado’s bullpen, which didn’t get much from anyone but Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez. The good news is that it’s hard to imagine Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee pitching much worse in 2020 than they did last season. And even if they do, they’re all entering the final guaranteed season of their onerous contracts, so they shouldn’t be the Rockies’ problem for much longer. In the meantime, the Rockies are going to need bounce-back efforts from them because they haven’t meaningfully addressed their late-game setup this offseason.

Kansas City Royals (5.07 ERA/4.55 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Kansas City’s another team that has been quiet in the past few months, despite its less-than-stellar output a year ago. There are a couple bullpen trade candidates on hand in Ian Kennedy and Tim Hill, arguably the Royals’ two best relievers, but nothing has materialized on those fronts thus far. Kennedy was terrific last season in his first year as a reliever, though the fact that he’s due $16.5MM in 2020 has likely scared off interested teams.

New York Mets (4.99 ERA/4.71 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Mets were extremely busy in trying to repair their bullpen last offseason, when they traded for ex-Mariners star Edwin Diaz and signed Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. The latter pitched well during an injury-shortened campaign, but Diaz and Familia fell off a cliff, which is why the Mets are on this list a year later. At least in Diaz’s case, though, it would be reasonable to expect a much better performance in 2020. He struck out over 15 batters per nine and maintained his 97 mph velocity last year, after all, and isn’t going to surrender home runs on 27 percent of fly balls again this season. Regardless of how he does, the Mets have added some notable support to their relief unit in the past several weeks. They signed former Yankee Dellin Betances, one of the elite relievers in recent memory (albeit one coming off an injury-ruined year), as well as the accomplished Brad Brach. They also have the newly signed Michael Wacha as a potential long relief option, not to mention holdovers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.
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