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The Best Fits For Nicholas Castellanos

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Stop us if you’ve heard this before: a Scott Boras client is the last high-profile name left in free agency. At this point it’s practically a time-honored tradition for the Boras Corporation to have the last big name standing in free agency. It doesn’t always work in the player’s favor, but even many of those who’ve settled for lesser deals — think Mike Moustakas, Dallas Keuchel and, a few years back, Kendrys Morales — have eventually gone on to cash in on sizable multi-year pacts in future offseasons.

Enter Nicholas Castellanos. Heading into free agency, he was a hotly discussed name due to his youth — he’ll turn 28 in March — and the Ruthian finish he had to the 2019 season. Upon being traded to the Cubs, Castellanos erupted with a .321/.356/.646 slash, 16 homers and 21 doubles in just 51 games (225 plate appearances). He connected on an extra-base hit (16.4 percent) nearly as often as he struck out (20.8 percent). Reactionary takes suggesting that he’d punched his ticket to a nine-figure payday never seemed particularly grounded in reality, but a hefty multi-year deal certainly looked (and arguably still looks) likely.

The longstanding question with Castellanos has been his glovework. Were he even an average defender, even in a corner spot, the $100MM+ some speculated following his Cubs bonanza might’ve been conceivable. But Castellanos came up as a third baseman, moved to right field due to defensive deficiencies and has yet to master his new position. He’s improved, in the eyes of most metrics, going from -19 DRS in 2018 to -9 in 2019, -12.9 UZR to -4.4 and -24 OAA to -7. It’s a step in the right direction, but the consensus remains that he’s a questionable defender.

If he’s able to make similar strides in 2020, that perception might change, and it’s worth noting that Castellanos’ problem lies more in poor jumps than his speed, which is above-average, per Statcast. However, Castellanos and Boras are looking for long-term commitments right now, and signing a shorter-term deal would run the risk of his glovework backing up (or of incurring an injury, declining at the plate, etc.). Betting on himself could prove particularly lucrative, given his age, but that’s not a risk that most players would prefer to take — or feel they should have to take coming off a run at the plate as productive as that of Castellanos.

Over the past four seasons, Castellanos is a .286/.336/.504 hitter (120 OPS+, 121 wRC+), and he’s been even better over the past two campaigns (124 OPS+, 126 wRC+). Castellanos isn’t an especially prodigious home run hitter, but his 104 doubles over the past two seasons are seven more than the next-highest mark in the game. Castellanos has still gone deep 50 times in that stretch — including that 16-homer surge in Chicago. (It’s worth pointing out that he’s been a more productive hitter at Detroit’s Comerica Park than on the road, so the ballpark switch probably wasn’t the primary factor.) He might not be in former teammate J.D. Martinez’s territory as far as overall offensive output goes, but Castellanos has been one of baseball’s 30 best hitters since 2018.

Perhaps a sign of the times, Castellanos is looking for a long-term deal in the same offseason that his primary market competitor, Marcell Ozuna, took a one-year deal with the Braves. It’s become tougher and tougher for corner bats to land sizable contracts in recent years — particularly if they’re not considered standout defenders. Ozuna landing in Atlanta removed one potential landing spot for Castellanos, and another dried up earlier this winter when the White Sox filled up their lineup by adding both Nomar Mazara and Edwin Encarnacion.

So where can Castellanos look to find work? Let’s run through some of the best remaining fits…

  • Rangers: Texas could call its outfield full, citing a left-to-right trio of Willie Calhoun, Danny Santana and Joey Gallo. But Gallo surprisingly proved capable of handling center in 2019, and Santana has traditionally struggled there anyhow. The Rangers could shift Santana to a bench role and play Gallo in center to accommodate Castellanos in right. Alternatively, they’ve reportedly discussed signing Castellanos to play first base (an indictment on his defense in and of itself). President of baseball ops Jon Daniels is clearly in win-now mode as the Rangers move into a new ballpark, and adding Castellanos would cap off an aggressive winter in fashion.
  • Indians: Cleveland has shredded its payroll to the point that they’re now projected to have a sub-$100MM payroll and their lowest mark since 2015. They could be looking at their final year with Francisco Lindor in the mix, as owner Paul Dolan has previously signaled that he’s not willing to spend at the level it’d take to lock the superstar shortstop up long-term. The Indians only have $23MM on the books in 2021, and their current corner outfielders will consist of a combination of Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, Delino DeShields Jr., Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Franmil Reyes (who’ll spend time at DH as well) and Bradley Zimmer. Adding Castellanos would put a better spin on an offseason in which the club parted with Corey Kluber and added Cesar Hernandez and Emmanuel Clase. Then again, Cleveland was also mostly idle last winter even as the Twins made some aggressive moves, and now both Minnesota and the White Sox have significantly ramped up their efforts to win.
  • Reds: No one will accuse the Reds of idleness over the past year and a half. They don’t have a clear outfield opening, with newly signed Shogo Akiyama joining Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino in the outfield mix (and several other options on the 40-man roster, including Phil Ervin, Travis Jankowski, Scott Schebler and Jose Siri). But while Aquino exploded with 14 homers in his first 29 MLB games, he followed that up with a catastrophic .196/.236/.382 slash in his second month in the big leagues. He could be optioned to Triple-A, but even then, adding Castellanos wouldn’t leave much room for Winker and his career .285/.379/.466 batting line in the Majors. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this week that the Reds are “still a player” for Castellanos, adding that they made a “spirited” pursuit of Ozuna. But it’s not clear when in the offseason they made their peak offer to Ozuna, and at this point it seems likely that Cincinnati would need to make a trade to accommodate Castellanos. Perhaps that’s just what the organization has in mind if it is able to reach agreement.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals, admittedly, are more of an on-paper fit than anything else. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. publicly indicated recently that an additional splash or further increase in the team’s payroll isn’t likely. Still, the Cards lost Ozuna and now look like they’ll rely on Tyler O’Neill and Lane Thomas in left. It’s possible that one or both (or top prospect Dylan Carlson, who also looms in the upper minors) could emerge as a quality big league contributor, but the currently constructed version of the Cardinals’ lineup will carry its share of questions entering the season. For a club intent on defending a division title, that’s not ideal.
  • Cubs: The Cubs are said to have loved Castellanos in his short time there — how could you not love that type of production? — but ownership has been steadfast in its reluctance to add to the MLB payroll this winter. The Cubs, stunningly, haven’t signed a single free agent to a guaranteed big league salary. They’re awaiting the resolution of Kris Bryant’s service time grievance, and many expect them to shop the former MVP once that happens. Perhaps they’ll just happily take the extra payroll space if they’re able to find a deal, but the temptation to sign Castellanos to a backloaded contract would be strong; the Cubs will have Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana and Daniel Descalso all off the books next year. Perhaps Castellanos will already have signed by that point, but if he’s still out there and the Cubs find a way to shed some payroll, a reunion becomes more likely.
  • Giants: San Francisco was reported to be interested in Castellanos earlier this winter, and there isn’t exactly anyone standing in the way of Castellanos. Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson project as the primary corner outfielders, but both are more than a year older than Castellanos despite their lack of MLB experience. The only year that Yastrzemski has shown any type of sustained power was in 2019’s juiced ball environment, and Dickerson has totaled all of 101 games between the Majors and Triple-A over the past three seasons. The Giants are rebuilding, but Castellanos wouldn’t cost a draft pick, block significant prospects, or put them near the luxury threshold. At the very least, if he winds up settling on a one-year deal, the Giants could do worse than trying to flip him in July or collecting a pick by issuing a QO at season’s end. However, a multi-year deal for a player still in his prime is sensible so long as the team isn’t in all-out tank mode (which doesn’t seem to be the case based on other offseason moves).

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens

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We’ve gone over how the five worst offenses and rotations of last season now look with the offseason nearing completion. We’ll do the same here with the quintet of bullpens that had the most difficulty preventing runs in 2019. Judging a bullpen just by ERA is an admittedly crude method, though each of the relief units in question here also posted subpar fielding-independent metrics. The bottom line is that they struggled. Let’s see how they stack up now…

Baltimore Orioles (5.79 ERA/5.38 FIP; current depth chart)

  • No surprise to see the Orioles at the bottom, considering the rebuilding outfit’s myriad difficulties last season. The Orioles didn’t get particularly impressive production from any of their relievers. Even their No. 1 option, Mychal Givens, had trouble at times, though he did strike out better than 12 batters per nine. Givens is on track to open the season with the Orioles, but he could certainly be an in-season trade candidate. If they move him, it would further weaken a bullpen that hasn’t added anyone of note this offseason.

Washington Nationals (5.68 ERA/4.94 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Nationals proved last season that you can have a bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen from a statistical standpoint and still win the World Series. However, general manager Mike Rizzo’s in-season tinkering with the group proved effective, especially the acquisition of flamethrowing closer Daniel Hudson at the trade deadline. Hudson remains in the fold, having re-signed in free agency for two years and $11MM. In an even bigger move, the Nationals signed Will Harris – a former Astro whom they upended in the Fall Classic – to a three-year, $24MM pact. With those two and the returning Sean Doolittle, Washington appears to be in nice shape late in games, but it’ll need more from Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, Wander Suero and Tanner Rainey.

Colorado Rockies (5.18 ERA/5.12 FIP; current depth chart)

  • There were few oft-used bright spots last season in Colorado’s bullpen, which didn’t get much from anyone but Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez. The good news is that it’s hard to imagine Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee pitching much worse in 2020 than they did last season. And even if they do, they’re all entering the final guaranteed season of their onerous contracts, so they shouldn’t be the Rockies’ problem for much longer. In the meantime, the Rockies are going to need bounce-back efforts from them because they haven’t meaningfully addressed their late-game setup this offseason.

Kansas City Royals (5.07 ERA/4.55 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Kansas City’s another team that has been quiet in the past few months, despite its less-than-stellar output a year ago. There are a couple bullpen trade candidates on hand in Ian Kennedy and Tim Hill, arguably the Royals’ two best relievers, but nothing has materialized on those fronts thus far. Kennedy was terrific last season in his first year as a reliever, though the fact that he’s due $16.5MM in 2020 has likely scared off interested teams.

New York Mets (4.99 ERA/4.71 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Mets were extremely busy in trying to repair their bullpen last offseason, when they traded for ex-Mariners star Edwin Diaz and signed Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. The latter pitched well during an injury-shortened campaign, but Diaz and Familia fell off a cliff, which is why the Mets are on this list a year later. At least in Diaz’s case, though, it would be reasonable to expect a much better performance in 2020. He struck out over 15 batters per nine and maintained his 97 mph velocity last year, after all, and isn’t going to surrender home runs on 27 percent of fly balls again this season. Regardless of how he does, the Mets have added some notable support to their relief unit in the past several weeks. They signed former Yankee Dellin Betances, one of the elite relievers in recent memory (albeit one coming off an injury-ruined year), as well as the accomplished Brad Brach. They also have the newly signed Michael Wacha as a potential long relief option, not to mention holdovers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.

Who’s Left From MLBTR’s Top 50?

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Free agency lost yet another marquee name when outfielder Marcell Ozuna signed a one-year, $18MM contract with the Braves on Tuesday. Ozuna was, of course, a prominent part of the top 50 list of free agents MLBTR put together when the offseason began in November. Since then, just about every member of that class has come off the board during what has been a much quicker-moving winter than the previous couple. To be exact, 46 of MLBTR’s top 50 have already found teams. Here’s a look at the four still out there with spring training creeping ever closer…

8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF (original prediction: four years, $58MM)

  • The Rangers have been mentioned more than anyone else in connection with Castellanos lately, but the deal Ozuna inked could be a negative portent for the former’s earning power. He and Ozuna, who aren’t that different in overall value when they take the field, were projected to rake in lucrative multiyear contracts as the top two outfielders on the market. The good news for Castellanos is that he’s younger (28 in March; Ozuna’s 29) and, unlike Ozuna, not saddled with a qualifying offer.

37. Yasiel Puig, OF (original prediction: one year, $8MM)

  • Puig your friend? Tell that to the teams in search of an outfielder. Interest in the former star has been scarce since he completed an underwhelming season in Ohio in 2019, and clear fits are hard to find with teams like the Braves, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Marlins and Reds having addressed their outfields this winter.

41. Brock Holt, UTIL (original prediction: two years, $8MM)

  • The Holt rumor mill was silent until recently. Since last week, both the Reds and Blue Jays have sprung up as reported suitors for the former Red Sox utilityman. Considering Holt’s defensive versatility and passable offense, and the fact that he won’t cost a ton to sign, it’s not hard to see the appeal.

49. Pedro Strop, RP (original prediction: one year, $5MM)

  • For the most part, Strop has been eminently effective since his career began in 2009. That said, his numbers trended downward last year. In what could go down as his final season as a Cub, he pitched to a 4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP with 4.32 walks per nine and a 93.6 mph average fastball velocity. Those figures all rank among the worst of his career. On a better note, Strop once again struck out double-digit hitters per nine and recorded another groundball rate upward of 50 percent. Still, relative to the rest of his time in the majors, it looks as if the 34-year-old Strop is a free agent at the wrong time. That doesn’t mean teams aren’t interested, though, as Strop’s said to be weighing offers from the Cubs, Marlins, Brewers and Rangers.

This Date In Transactions History: Sonny To Cincy

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It was on this date a year ago that the Reds made one of their best pickups in recent memory. Then desperate for rotation help, the Reds took a flier on former standout right-hander Sonny Gray, acquiring him and young reliever Reiver Sanmartin from the Yankees in a three-team trade that also included the Mariners. The Yankees received middle infielder/outfielder Shed Long and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick in the swap, though they quickly flipped Long to the Mariners for outfield prospect Josh Stowers.

It was obvious entering last offseason that the Yankees would try to trade Gray, whose tenure in their uniform was a letdown. The Yankees paid what was then a high price to acquire Gray, who was coming off a strong run in Oakland, back in July 2017. But Gray wasn’t the same pitcher in New York, particularly struggling at Yankee Stadium, and the club left him off its playoff roster in 2018. After that, general manager Brian Cashman admitted that “it’s probably best to try somewhere else” for Gray.

Twelve months later, the change of scenery has been a godsend for Gray and Reds. For the team, not only has the trade paid off, but the three-year, $30MM contract Cincy gave Gray the moment it acquired him looks like a bargain.

In his first season as a Red, the 30-year-old Gray performed like one of the premier starters in the sport and earned his second All-Star nod in the process. Gray tossed 175 1/3 innings, his most since 2015, and turned in the third-lowest ERA of his career (2.87). He also notched a 3.42 FIP with a 50.8 percent groundball rate and fanned more hitters than ever. Gray’s 10.52 K/9 was easily a personal best, while he also posted his second-highest swinging-strike percentage (11.3). When batters did make contact, they seldom did much damage, as Gray ranked near the top of the league in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected weighted on-base average against.

Despite Gray’s efforts, the Reds endured yet another sub-.500 season in 2019. However, he’s still among the reasons they now look like a team on the upswing. Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and Wade Miley now make up one of the game’s most formidable-looking rotations on paper. That’s a drastic 180 for a club whose starting staff was among baseball’s worst the season before it hauled in Gray.

The Gray-less Yankees, for their part, appear to have an even better rotation than the Reds at this point. That said, no one knows whether they’ll get anything from the players they landed for Gray. Both Stowers and lefty TJ Sikkema, whom the Yankees chose with the pick they received in the trade, are still a ways off from the majors. The 22-year-old Stowers isn’t far removed from going in Round 2 of the 2018 draft, though, and he was plenty productive at the Single-A level last season, hitting .273/.386/.400 with 35 steals across 460 plate appearances. Sikkema, 21, had a very brief but very dominant showing in low-A ball after the Yankees drafted him.

As for the rebuilding Mariners, it looks as if they did well to insert themselves into this swap. Long joined the team as a promising prospect and then lived up to the billing in his first major league action last season. The 24-year-old amassed 168 PA and batted .263/.333/.454, also gaining a solid amount of experience at second base and in the outfield. Long figures to see even more time in Seattle this year, when the team no doubt hopes he’ll further demonstrate that he’s capable of serving as a core member of its roster.

Thanks to this trade, the Reds have a core piece for their rotation in Gray. A year into Gray’s time in Cincinnati, he and the team are surely thrilled with how their union has worked out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Surveying The Market For Starling Marte

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With most of the free agent action already completed, attention has shifted to some major remaining potential trade chips. We’ve seen a lot of chatter but little in the way of blockbuster swaps thus far.

Pirates outfielder Starling Marte continues to stand out as a trade candidate. He’s a significant talent and consistent performer, having contributed at least 3 fWAR in every one of his full seasons in the majors. Of course, that’d also be a true-but-misleading way of glossing over a 2017 campaign cut short by a PED suspension. That’s not likely to be much of a factor given the past market treatment of players receiving punishment and the amount of time that has elapsed.

Marte has his flaws. Beyond the PED bust, he doesn’t walk much, dipped a bit in the defensive metrics in 2019, and didn’t produce an impressive exit velocity last year. He’s also not especially youthful at 31 years of age. But Marte is a well-above-average hitter and outstanding baserunner who’s at least capable of holding down center field, even if he won’t add significant value there as he ages. His remaining contract rights — an $11.5MM salary in 2020 followed by a $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) — are undeniably a positive-value asset for the Bucs.

The Pirates are still said to be holding talks. Perhaps new GM Ben Cherington now has a better sense of how he’d like to proceed after a few months on the job. So, now that we’ve already seen so many players find new homes, which teams still shape up as plausible landing spots for Marte?

Mets: The New York org has been tied to Marte more than any other club. Adding Jake Marisnick took away the immediacy of the need up the middle; he’s currently slated to share time with Brandon Nimmo. With Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, and perhaps Yoenis Cespedes in the mix at the corners, there’d be a bit of an overload in the case of an addition. Of course, one or more of those players could be on the move in a Marte deal. First baseman Dominic Smith would also be a candidate to move, though the Pirates have a younger first bagger already in Josh Bell so a third team might end up in the picture.

Diamondbacks: The last Marte worked out; why not another? Ketel Marte is presently penciled in at center, but the team’s preference is to play the budding star at second base. Acquiring the Pirates’ Marte would mean a primary outfield alignment with him up the middle and Kole Calhoun and David Peralta at the corners. Moving the preexisting, more youthful Marte into the infield would force some infield reshuffling but wouldn’t cause any major problems. The Snakes have a deep farm system from which to deal.

Rangers: With Delino DeShields Jr. out of the picture, the current plan in Texas is to plug in Danny Santana in center in hopes he can sustain last year’s BABIP and home run surge. The backup plan would be to slide star slugger Joey Gallo back up the middle, though the club seems disinclined to wear him down too much. Adding Marte would bring a lot of balance to the situation, with Santana functioning in a utility role, and help make up for the Rangers’ failed pursuit of Anthony Rendon.

Padres: While the Friars continue to work to consolidate their talent pool into present MLB ability, they’ve still prioritized value and pursued upside. That explains why the team’s current big league center field mix features Trent Grisham and Manuel Margot, with Taylor Trammell on deck — if he can finish his development and transition to the game’s highest level. Marte would be a different piece entirely, one seemingly well-suited to the Padres’ claimed aspirations of near-term competitiveness. There’s certainly ample talent to draw upon in trade talks.

Braves: There’s still a lot of thump in the middle of the Braves’ lineup, but 2020 may be dry unless the club finds a new rainmaker to make up for the loss of Josh Donaldson. While the Atlanta roster features two plausible center fielders — defensive wizard Ender Inciarte and young star Ronald Acuna — it could still be improved through the addition of Marte. The Braves could utilize him in the corners at time, limiting the burden on both Marte and veteran Nick Markakis, while allowing Austin Riley to focus on his customary third base (and on adjusting to MLB pitching). Most importantly, the Atlanta lineup would add a 20/20 performer who turned in a 119 wRC+ in 2019.

Phillies: Don’t sleep on the Philadelphia organization, even if a cross-state swap might prove tough to orchestrate. With Odubel Herrera officially out of the picture, the club’s center field mix features Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, and Nick Martini, with Scott Kingery presently slated for primary duty at third base. The Phils need to upgrade in center or at third if they’re to make a much-awaited breakout. Adding at the hot corner might be preferable in some regards, but the potentially available trade candidates all have sky-high price tags. Marte may now be the most plausible finishing move for the Phillies.

Blue Jays: It’s a bit of a surprise that the club has thus far retained closer Ken Giles. Now it has picked up a long-awaited rotation anchor in Hyun-Jin Ryu. So … could the Jays pursue a second big addition of the winter? Center field could be manned by an assortment of players — Randal Grichuk, Anthony Alford, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the existing options — but there’s plenty of room to improve. The Jays want to allow opportunities for a few younger players, but there’s a risk of being caught in the middle in 2020. With two years of control left over Marte, adding him wouldn’t be overly committing.

Division Rivals: Presumably, the Bucs won’t be overly sentimental with respect to Marte. It would sting to see him playing for a division rival, but the organization needs to maximize its resources after a brutal 2019 season. So it’s at least conceptually possible that discussions could be had with some fellow NL Central clubs — though there surely won’t be any discounts. The Cubs stand out from the perspective of need, as they’re presently set to roll out some combination of Ian Happ, Albert Almora, and Jason Heyward. But even Marte’s reasonable salary could be an impediment. The Reds and Cardinals both have loaded outfield mixes but could still improve with Marte. The Cincinnati org has aggressively pursued veterans in recent years and could perhaps envision Marte sharing time up the middle and in the corners with recent signee Shogo Akiyama. In that scenario, young players Nick Senzel, Aristides Aquino, and Jesse Winker would alternatively be trade chips (in a Marte deal or some other swap) or other key parts of an exciting outfield mix. And in St. Louis, the ever-evolving outfield picture seemingly features Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas in center. The Cards are still dabbling in the market for Marcell Ozuna, so there’s obviously some desire to add a quality right-handed bat. And the team would surely prefer it be one that could also handle the center field position defensively.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Twins?

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No team took a bigger step forward in 2019 than the Twins, who increased their win total from 78 to 101 in a one-year span. They knocked the back-to-back-to-back AL Central-winning Indians off their pedestal in the process, taking the division by a cushy eight games. The Twins did it with a juggernaut offense known as the Bomba Squad – a group that smashed the all-time single-season home run record with 307 during a historically powerful year across baseball. In the end, though, the Twins’ longtime playoff nemesis in the Bronx proved to be their undoing once again when October arrived.

The Yankees continued to haunt the Twins, but there was still plenty to be encouraged about for the latter when its offseason began. The expectation entering the winter was that the Twins would make aggressive upgrades to their pitching staff, which was facing the departures of four free-agent starters in Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez. They wound up keeping Odorizzi and Pineda, though the latter will miss the beginning of the season after incurring a 60-game suspension for a banned substance last September. Those two and Jose Berrios should give the Twins’ rotation a strong foundation when Pineda returns, but questions abound otherwise.

The Twins didn’t come away with a Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner type in free agency, instead reeling in the veteran duo of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on one-year deals. Hill has been absolutely great when healthy. Problem is that he’s an oft-injured soon-to-be 40-year-old who won’t debut until the summertime after undergoing elbow surgery. Bailey’s career was all but left for dead a couple years back, but he did experience a resurgence in 2019, turning back into a viable starter with the Royals and A’s. The rest of the Twins’ rotation possibilities are decidedly less experienced, though there’s promise with the likes of Randy Dobnak, Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer.

The Twins haven’t splurged on expensive starters or relievers (the battle-tested Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard signed affordable deals), but they’ve somehow found a way to assemble an even more intimidating offense. The club that boasted five 30-homer hitters a year ago just found a sixth in ex-Brave Josh Donaldson, whom it added on a four-year, $92MM pact. It’s the largest contract the Twins have given a free agent, but Donaldson seems worth it based on his lengthy track record of excellence.

The Donaldson deal might not look great in a few years, at which point he’ll be in his late 30s, but the Twins can worry about tomorrow when it comes. Today they’re focused on a World Series, and they just might get there with an offense capable of pounding opposing teams into submission. Assuming the baseball itself has less juice than it did last year, the Twins are likely to amass fewer HRs as a team. Still, when the likes of Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver are part of your regular lineup, there’s little doubt you’ll terrorize enemy pitchers.

As frightening as the Twins’ offense looks, the team itself could face more tests within a division that it owned last season. Minnesota went a combined 50-26 against the Indians, White Sox, Royals and Tigers. The Indians should still be a quality team (that’s if they don’t trade Francisco Lindor), and the White Sox are on the upswing after they made a slew of noteworthy acquisitons earlier this winter. Detroit and KC will be at the bottom of the division again, but at least the Tigers have made some effort to improve, including with the pickups of ex-Twins C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop.

While it may be a more competitive AL Central in 2020, the Twins remain the front-runners. The question is: Just how good do you think they’ll be?

(Poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Josh Donaldson Signing

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After a lengthy and complicating matchmaking process, the Twins have reportedly come away with elite veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s a momentous occasion for the Minnesota organization, which is looking to fend off the Indians and White Sox to repeat as AL Central champ.

Though a big strike for Donaldson wasn’t necessarily the club’s very top choice, it became a priority when righty Zack Wheeler decided to head to the Phillies. The Donaldson contract is quite a different proposition in many regards: he’s an older position player, while Wheeler is a younger pitcher. But both players come with similar mixes of lofty ceilings and fairly significant risk factors. And they’ll play for generally equivalent money, with the far senior Donaldson receiving one less guranteed season.

Guaranteeing four years and $92MM to a 34-year-old player is virtually without precedent. As we recently explored, it’s an expansion of the commitments we’ve seen of late to other high-end older players. But the Twins are doing it with eyes wide open. And Donaldson is more than just a high-quality veteran.

If Donaldson can stay healthy and hold back father time just a bit, there’s good reason to hope for massive production. He posted a 132 wRC+ last year and will add yet more pop to an already potent lineup. And Donaldson was somewhere between good and excellent with the glove, depending upon whom you ask. That allows the Twins to unlock yet more value from this signing, as they’ll improve their overall glovework by shifting Miguel Sano over to first base.

That said, there’ll always be some level of trepidation regarding Donaldson’s age and recent history of leg issues. 34 in September, Donaldson may not have lost much to this point. But it’s tougher to overcome the physical ailments that do arise and we have seen plenty of players run into relatively steep declines. Of at least as much concern is the track record from the two seasons prior to his platform campaign. While he was healthy in, Donaldson was limited to 165 total contests over 2017-18 owing mostly to a lingering calf injury.

So … how do you grade this signing from the Twins’ perspective? (Poll link for app users.)

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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We checked in last week on what, if anything, the five lowest-scoring offenses of 2019 have done to improve themselves this winter. Let’s now take a look at whether any of the five starting rotations that posted the highest ERAs last year have gotten better this offseason. Free agency won’t offer much in the way of help at this point, so for the most part, what you see here is probably what you’ll get..

Colorado Rockies (5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Assembling a competent starting staff has regularly been a problem for the Rockies, who are stuck playing half their games at the unkind confines of Coors Field. It was a different story in 2018, the year the Rockies boasted a high-end starting staff, but things took a sharp turn for the worse last season. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, who continued their strong production, no one from the Rockies’ rotation performed well. Kyle Freeland suffered through a disastrous campaign after posting a Cy Young-caliber 2018, while Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Rico Garcia combined for woeful numbers across a combined 83 starts. So what have the Rockies done since to address their starting group? Nothing of note. It seems they’ll count on a bunch of their holdovers to turn in better showings, though their staff will take a big hit in the event they deal Gray (a potential trade candidate) before the season.

Los Angeles Angels (5.64 ERA/5.41 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Angels’ rotation suffered a terrible blow in the fall of 2018 when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery, costing him all of last season, and then tragedy struck last July when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Considering the circumstances, it’s not surprising the Angels’ staff reeled last season. Nevertheless, adding reinforcements was clearly in order for this winter. The problem is that the Angels still haven’t found a way to acquire a proven front-of-the-rotation type, which many expected to them to get when the winter began. Ohtani’s back, which is a major plus. Meanwhile, the acquisitions of innings-eaters Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran should help matters, but they’re not going to frighten opposing offenses. The Angels figure to keep trying to better their rotation in the coming months, though the open market has dried up and teams seemingly aren’t champing at the bit to move big-time starters via trade now.

Baltimore Orioles (5.57 ERA/5.72 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Bundy, who led the O’s rotation in innings last season, is now gone. 2019 success story John Means remains in place, and Alex Cobb will be back in the wake of injuries that limited him to three starts. Those two aside, there’s little in the way of established starters for rebuilding Baltimore, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club try to find a cheap starter(s) in free agency before the season begins. The team did make an interesting move when it used the second pick of the Rule 5 Draft on 25-year-old righty Brandon Bailey, whom Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs calls a “spin rate monster.”

Detroit Tigers (5.51 ERA/4.66 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Detroit’s rotation mix actually looks pretty promising, though it’s possible the team will weaken the mix by trading Matthew Boyd before the season. As of now, he’s back at the helm of a group that also got respectable performances from Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris last year. Stud prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning are gaining on the majors, meanwhile, and Michael Fulmer should factor back in sometime this year after Tommy John surgery kept him away in 2019. Furthermore, the Tigers just signed the durable Ivan Nova to a cheap contract to serve as their resident back-end innings-eater. Jordan Zimmerman, arguably the weakest link in the chain, is also the most expensive. Mercifully for the Tigers, he’s finally entering the last season of what has been an albatross contract for the club.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5.19 ERA/4.78 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Pirates, already without staff leader Jameson Taillon for most of last season, suffered a horrid blow when he underwent a TJ procedure in August. He won’t be part of the 2020 staff as a result, leaving holdovers Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams at the helm of an uninspiring-looking bunch. Barring a trade, the hope is that the once-terrific Archer will put a nightmarish first year and a half as a Pirate behind him. Archer was markedly better as last season progressed, so there does seem to be some hope for a full-season bounce-back effort. The unit will include some speculative candidates in Tommy John rehabber Chad Kuhl and talented 23-year-old Mitch Keller, who struggled as a rookie but remains a premium pitching prospect.

The original version of this post mistakenly indicated that Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. His procedure occurred in September of 2018.

Managers, Top Front Office Execs On Expiring Contracts

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Monday was one of the most stunning days baseball has seen in recent memory. Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch, who oversaw several contending teams in Houston and led the club to a World Series championship, lost their jobs as a result of a sign-stealing scandal. Before accusations against the Astros arose several weeks ago, neither Luhnow nor Hinch looked likely to leave their posts for the foreseeable future. Now, though, the Astros are the lone team in baseball that doesn’t have a clear answer at either spot (though the Red Sox could join the Astros soon if the league drops the hammer on manager Alex Cora). But what about after the 2020 season? Which clubs could be in need then?

With help from the ever-valuable Cot’s Baseball Contracts, let’s take a look at clubs whose GMs and/or managers are entering contract years. As a reminder, this list might not be complete or fully accurate. Some teams may have extended their lame-duck executives/skippers and not publicized those moves yet, for instance, while other individuals in those spots could have less job security than it appears.

Angels: Entering the 2016 season, the Angels hired general manager Billy Eppler to helm a franchise led by all-world center fielder Mike Trout. As was the case then, Trout remains on a collision course with a Cooperstown plaque. The problem is that the Angels have continually failed to take advantage of his presence. Since Eppler came aboard, they haven’t even posted a .500 season. They’re also on their third manager (Mike Scioscia, whom Eppler inherited, then Brad Ausmus and now Joe Maddon) since their GM assumed the reins. Eppler has been rather aggressive this offseason as he works on a turnaround, though, having signed third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $235MM contract, picked up catcher Jason Castro and added starters Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. The acquisition of a much-needed front-line rotation piece this winter has eluded Eppler, who will perhaps keep trying to land one before the season. Regardless, it appears to be put up-or-shut up time for Eppler. Should the Angels fail to make significant progress in the upcoming campaign, it seems likely they’ll have a new GM a year from now.

Blue Jays: The partnership consisting of president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins has been going on since before 2016. The Blue Jays were then on the cusp of their second straight ALCS-bound season, but they’ve since launched a rebuild and endured three consecutive losing campaigns. Shapiro’s now going into the final season of his contract, though he and the organization are willing to discuss an extension, while Atkins’ status is a bit less clear. Atkins signed an extension last June, but it’s unknown whether it will go beyond the coming season. One thing’s for sure, however: This has been a busy offseason for Shapiro and Atkins, as the Jays have acquired four pitchers (Hyun-Jin Ryu, who cost the team an $80MM commitment, as well as Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi) and infielder Travis Shaw.

Braves: The two-year extension Snitker inked in 2018 has a team option for 2021, in which he and the Braves will go for their third straight NL East title. Snitker, who took over as interim manager in 2016, endured a couple losing seasons before his recent run of success and has not been able to secure a playoff series win thus far. The overall results have been good, however, so it stands to reason the Braves will exercise Snitker’s option if they have another playoff-caliber season.

Nationals: The extension the Nationals gave GM Mike Rizzo a couple years back reportedly lasts through 2020, while manager Dave Martinez has a club option for ’21. Back when the Nats re-upped Rizzo, they were known as a talented team that couldn’t break through in the fall. That finally happened in 2019, the year the franchise finally took home its first World Series. Thanks in part to that triumph, it would be a stunner to see the Nats allow Rizzo or Martinez to get away anytime soon.

Royals: Like Rizzo, it doesn’t seem Moore’s in any danger of exiting his current organization. Moore, KC’s GM since 2006, has only overseen two playoff teams, but the Royals sure made those seasons count. They won the AL pennant in 2015 and then the World Series the next year. They’re now amid a rebuild and coming off two 100-loss seasons, and are likely in for another lean year. Still, new owner John Sherman is reportedly set to hand Moore an extension to keep him atop the franchise’s baseball hierarchy.

Tigers: GM Al Avila seems to be safe, at least from a contractual standpoint, but the rebuilding Tigers could go in another direction in the dugout soon. Veteran skipper Ron Gardenhire’s not signed beyond then, and there doesn’t appear to be any hurry on the team’s part to change that. While Gardenhire enjoyed plenty of success with the division-rival Twins from 2002-14, he signed off for a difficult job in Detroit. The club, which hasn’t had much talent throughout Gardenhire’s reign, has gone 111-212 on his two-season watch. The Tigers have somewhat beefed up their roster this winter, though, and that should give Gardenhire a legit chance to help lead the team to a better output than its 47-win mark in 2019. Detroit has redone the right side of its infield by signing first baseman C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop, improved at catcher by adding Austin Romine and landed innings-eater Ivan Nova for their rotation. Nothing splashy there, but Gardenhire’s probably happy to have those vets aboard after he had to guide such a sorry roster a season ago.

Yankees: This is the last guaranteed year of Boone’s contract, though his deal does include a club option for 2021. At this rate, the Yankees will exercise it, as Boone has made an almost seamless transition from the broadcast booth to the dugout. He has two 100-win seasons in as many attempts, has helped the Yankees to an ALCS, and nearly won AL Manager of the Year honors during an injury-laden 2019 for the club. Expectations will be even higher this season, though, considering Boone now has ace Gerrit Cole at the front of his rotation.

MLBTR Poll: The Astros Scandal

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It’s a rather ugly day for baseball, even if we saw it coming. The Astros’ video-aided sign-stealing effort had already been laid bare by video evidence. But all the underlying facts weren’t known. And it was far from clear how commissioner Rob Manfred would handle the punishment.

As it turns out, the Houston organization was hit with a $5MM fine (the maximum permissible) and the loss of four top draft choices. General manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were each suspended for a year. The team subsequently fired both men. Then-bench coach and current Red Sox manager Alex Cora also seems likely to be punished, though his precise comeuppance has yet to be determined pending an investigation into the Boston organization.

For full details on the team punishments, click here. In brief: Manfred found that a 2017 scheme to convey signs to batters in real-time “was, with the exception of Cora, player-driven and player-executed.” An ensuing effort “to decode signs using the center field camera was originated and executed by lower-level baseball operations employees working in conjunction with Astros players and Cora.” Punishing players was deemed “impractical given the large number of players involved, and the fact that many of those players now play for other Clubs.” That wasn’t the only reasoning, though. More relevant, Manfred said, was the fact that GMs and managers are made “responsible for ensuring that the players both understand the rules and adhere to them.”

So, our first poll question: was the assessment of a fine and taking of four top draft choices an appropriate punishment for the organization? Some around the game weren’t satisfied, but how do you see it? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

While he declined to pursue players — beyond the factors he noted, there’d have been major labor-relations implications and complications under the CBA — Manfred did still find that individual punishment was warranted for those in a position of added responsibility. Specifically, Luhnow and Hinch received personal punishment. (Cora, an active participant, presumably will as well.) Manfred did not find any reason to discipline or chastise Crane personally. To the contrary, he specifically cleared the owner of culpability. Evidently, the oversight responsibility concepts that undergirded the punishment of Hinch and (especially) Luhnow did not extend past the baseball operations department.

Whether there was any coordination or exchange of information between the league and the Astros regarding the firing of those two leaders is not known. But the team’s subsequent action certainly added quite some heft to the total blow that landed.  For full details on the firings, click here.

Luhnow disclaimed any knowledge of the schemes, though the report indicates he likely had some level of awareness of the team’s 2018 efforts. His statement cited the report’s reference to lower-level employee and player responsibility, though he also acknowledged and accepted his own failure of oversight. Luhnow was punished because he “failed to take any adequate steps to ensure that his Club was in compliance with the rules.” Manfred also blasted the culture that Luhnow created in the baseball operations department, a characterization that Crane disputed.

Ultimately, Luhnow was suspended for one year and dismissed from his position. Fair? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

As for Hinch, the circumstances were somewhat different. He was unquestionably aware that the sign-stealing efforts were ongoing and acknowledged as much in his statement. While he is said to have disagreed and at times even attempted to interfere with the stratagem, Hinch obviously did not utilize his authority or avail himself of the available means of halting the effort. In his statement after today’s outcome, he apologized for that failure.

Like the GM, Hinch received a one-year ban and ended up canned. Was this a just outcome? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

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