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Surveying The Market For Starling Marte

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With most of the free agent action already completed, attention has shifted to some major remaining potential trade chips. We’ve seen a lot of chatter but little in the way of blockbuster swaps thus far.

Pirates outfielder Starling Marte continues to stand out as a trade candidate. He’s a significant talent and consistent performer, having contributed at least 3 fWAR in every one of his full seasons in the majors. Of course, that’d also be a true-but-misleading way of glossing over a 2017 campaign cut short by a PED suspension. That’s not likely to be much of a factor given the past market treatment of players receiving punishment and the amount of time that has elapsed.

Marte has his flaws. Beyond the PED bust, he doesn’t walk much, dipped a bit in the defensive metrics in 2019, and didn’t produce an impressive exit velocity last year. He’s also not especially youthful at 31 years of age. But Marte is a well-above-average hitter and outstanding baserunner who’s at least capable of holding down center field, even if he won’t add significant value there as he ages. His remaining contract rights — an $11.5MM salary in 2020 followed by a $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) — are undeniably a positive-value asset for the Bucs.

The Pirates are still said to be holding talks. Perhaps new GM Ben Cherington now has a better sense of how he’d like to proceed after a few months on the job. So, now that we’ve already seen so many players find new homes, which teams still shape up as plausible landing spots for Marte?

Mets: The New York org has been tied to Marte more than any other club. Adding Jake Marisnick took away the immediacy of the need up the middle; he’s currently slated to share time with Brandon Nimmo. With Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, and perhaps Yoenis Cespedes in the mix at the corners, there’d be a bit of an overload in the case of an addition. Of course, one or more of those players could be on the move in a Marte deal. First baseman Dominic Smith would also be a candidate to move, though the Pirates have a younger first bagger already in Josh Bell so a third team might end up in the picture.

Diamondbacks: The last Marte worked out; why not another? Ketel Marte is presently penciled in at center, but the team’s preference is to play the budding star at second base. Acquiring the Pirates’ Marte would mean a primary outfield alignment with him up the middle and Kole Calhoun and David Peralta at the corners. Moving the preexisting, more youthful Marte into the infield would force some infield reshuffling but wouldn’t cause any major problems. The Snakes have a deep farm system from which to deal.

Rangers: With Delino DeShields Jr. out of the picture, the current plan in Texas is to plug in Danny Santana in center in hopes he can sustain last year’s BABIP and home run surge. The backup plan would be to slide star slugger Joey Gallo back up the middle, though the club seems disinclined to wear him down too much. Adding Marte would bring a lot of balance to the situation, with Santana functioning in a utility role, and help make up for the Rangers’ failed pursuit of Anthony Rendon.

Padres: While the Friars continue to work to consolidate their talent pool into present MLB ability, they’ve still prioritized value and pursued upside. That explains why the team’s current big league center field mix features Trent Grisham and Manuel Margot, with Taylor Trammell on deck — if he can finish his development and transition to the game’s highest level. Marte would be a different piece entirely, one seemingly well-suited to the Padres’ claimed aspirations of near-term competitiveness. There’s certainly ample talent to draw upon in trade talks.

Braves: There’s still a lot of thump in the middle of the Braves’ lineup, but 2020 may be dry unless the club finds a new rainmaker to make up for the loss of Josh Donaldson. While the Atlanta roster features two plausible center fielders — defensive wizard Ender Inciarte and young star Ronald Acuna — it could still be improved through the addition of Marte. The Braves could utilize him in the corners at time, limiting the burden on both Marte and veteran Nick Markakis, while allowing Austin Riley to focus on his customary third base (and on adjusting to MLB pitching). Most importantly, the Atlanta lineup would add a 20/20 performer who turned in a 119 wRC+ in 2019.

Phillies: Don’t sleep on the Philadelphia organization, even if a cross-state swap might prove tough to orchestrate. With Odubel Herrera officially out of the picture, the club’s center field mix features Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, and Nick Martini, with Scott Kingery presently slated for primary duty at third base. The Phils need to upgrade in center or at third if they’re to make a much-awaited breakout. Adding at the hot corner might be preferable in some regards, but the potentially available trade candidates all have sky-high price tags. Marte may now be the most plausible finishing move for the Phillies.

Blue Jays: It’s a bit of a surprise that the club has thus far retained closer Ken Giles. Now it has picked up a long-awaited rotation anchor in Hyun-Jin Ryu. So … could the Jays pursue a second big addition of the winter? Center field could be manned by an assortment of players — Randal Grichuk, Anthony Alford, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the existing options — but there’s plenty of room to improve. The Jays want to allow opportunities for a few younger players, but there’s a risk of being caught in the middle in 2020. With two years of control left over Marte, adding him wouldn’t be overly committing.

Division Rivals: Presumably, the Bucs won’t be overly sentimental with respect to Marte. It would sting to see him playing for a division rival, but the organization needs to maximize its resources after a brutal 2019 season. So it’s at least conceptually possible that discussions could be had with some fellow NL Central clubs — though there surely won’t be any discounts. The Cubs stand out from the perspective of need, as they’re presently set to roll out some combination of Ian Happ, Albert Almora, and Jason Heyward. But even Marte’s reasonable salary could be an impediment. The Reds and Cardinals both have loaded outfield mixes but could still improve with Marte. The Cincinnati org has aggressively pursued veterans in recent years and could perhaps envision Marte sharing time up the middle and in the corners with recent signee Shogo Akiyama. In that scenario, young players Nick Senzel, Aristides Aquino, and Jesse Winker would alternatively be trade chips (in a Marte deal or some other swap) or other key parts of an exciting outfield mix. And in St. Louis, the ever-evolving outfield picture seemingly features Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas in center. The Cards are still dabbling in the market for Marcell Ozuna, so there’s obviously some desire to add a quality right-handed bat. And the team would surely prefer it be one that could also handle the center field position defensively.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Twins?

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No team took a bigger step forward in 2019 than the Twins, who increased their win total from 78 to 101 in a one-year span. They knocked the back-to-back-to-back AL Central-winning Indians off their pedestal in the process, taking the division by a cushy eight games. The Twins did it with a juggernaut offense known as the Bomba Squad – a group that smashed the all-time single-season home run record with 307 during a historically powerful year across baseball. In the end, though, the Twins’ longtime playoff nemesis in the Bronx proved to be their undoing once again when October arrived.

The Yankees continued to haunt the Twins, but there was still plenty to be encouraged about for the latter when its offseason began. The expectation entering the winter was that the Twins would make aggressive upgrades to their pitching staff, which was facing the departures of four free-agent starters in Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez. They wound up keeping Odorizzi and Pineda, though the latter will miss the beginning of the season after incurring a 60-game suspension for a banned substance last September. Those two and Jose Berrios should give the Twins’ rotation a strong foundation when Pineda returns, but questions abound otherwise.

The Twins didn’t come away with a Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner type in free agency, instead reeling in the veteran duo of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on one-year deals. Hill has been absolutely great when healthy. Problem is that he’s an oft-injured soon-to-be 40-year-old who won’t debut until the summertime after undergoing elbow surgery. Bailey’s career was all but left for dead a couple years back, but he did experience a resurgence in 2019, turning back into a viable starter with the Royals and A’s. The rest of the Twins’ rotation possibilities are decidedly less experienced, though there’s promise with the likes of Randy Dobnak, Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer.

The Twins haven’t splurged on expensive starters or relievers (the battle-tested Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard signed affordable deals), but they’ve somehow found a way to assemble an even more intimidating offense. The club that boasted five 30-homer hitters a year ago just found a sixth in ex-Brave Josh Donaldson, whom it added on a four-year, $92MM pact. It’s the largest contract the Twins have given a free agent, but Donaldson seems worth it based on his lengthy track record of excellence.

The Donaldson deal might not look great in a few years, at which point he’ll be in his late 30s, but the Twins can worry about tomorrow when it comes. Today they’re focused on a World Series, and they just might get there with an offense capable of pounding opposing teams into submission. Assuming the baseball itself has less juice than it did last year, the Twins are likely to amass fewer HRs as a team. Still, when the likes of Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver are part of your regular lineup, there’s little doubt you’ll terrorize enemy pitchers.

As frightening as the Twins’ offense looks, the team itself could face more tests within a division that it owned last season. Minnesota went a combined 50-26 against the Indians, White Sox, Royals and Tigers. The Indians should still be a quality team (that’s if they don’t trade Francisco Lindor), and the White Sox are on the upswing after they made a slew of noteworthy acquisitons earlier this winter. Detroit and KC will be at the bottom of the division again, but at least the Tigers have made some effort to improve, including with the pickups of ex-Twins C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop.

While it may be a more competitive AL Central in 2020, the Twins remain the front-runners. The question is: Just how good do you think they’ll be?

(Poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Josh Donaldson Signing

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After a lengthy and complicating matchmaking process, the Twins have reportedly come away with elite veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s a momentous occasion for the Minnesota organization, which is looking to fend off the Indians and White Sox to repeat as AL Central champ.

Though a big strike for Donaldson wasn’t necessarily the club’s very top choice, it became a priority when righty Zack Wheeler decided to head to the Phillies. The Donaldson contract is quite a different proposition in many regards: he’s an older position player, while Wheeler is a younger pitcher. But both players come with similar mixes of lofty ceilings and fairly significant risk factors. And they’ll play for generally equivalent money, with the far senior Donaldson receiving one less guranteed season.

Guaranteeing four years and $92MM to a 34-year-old player is virtually without precedent. As we recently explored, it’s an expansion of the commitments we’ve seen of late to other high-end older players. But the Twins are doing it with eyes wide open. And Donaldson is more than just a high-quality veteran.

If Donaldson can stay healthy and hold back father time just a bit, there’s good reason to hope for massive production. He posted a 132 wRC+ last year and will add yet more pop to an already potent lineup. And Donaldson was somewhere between good and excellent with the glove, depending upon whom you ask. That allows the Twins to unlock yet more value from this signing, as they’ll improve their overall glovework by shifting Miguel Sano over to first base.

That said, there’ll always be some level of trepidation regarding Donaldson’s age and recent history of leg issues. 34 in September, Donaldson may not have lost much to this point. But it’s tougher to overcome the physical ailments that do arise and we have seen plenty of players run into relatively steep declines. Of at least as much concern is the track record from the two seasons prior to his platform campaign. While he was healthy in, Donaldson was limited to 165 total contests over 2017-18 owing mostly to a lingering calf injury.

So … how do you grade this signing from the Twins’ perspective? (Poll link for app users.)

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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We checked in last week on what, if anything, the five lowest-scoring offenses of 2019 have done to improve themselves this winter. Let’s now take a look at whether any of the five starting rotations that posted the highest ERAs last year have gotten better this offseason. Free agency won’t offer much in the way of help at this point, so for the most part, what you see here is probably what you’ll get..

Colorado Rockies (5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Assembling a competent starting staff has regularly been a problem for the Rockies, who are stuck playing half their games at the unkind confines of Coors Field. It was a different story in 2018, the year the Rockies boasted a high-end starting staff, but things took a sharp turn for the worse last season. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, who continued their strong production, no one from the Rockies’ rotation performed well. Kyle Freeland suffered through a disastrous campaign after posting a Cy Young-caliber 2018, while Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Rico Garcia combined for woeful numbers across a combined 83 starts. So what have the Rockies done since to address their starting group? Nothing of note. It seems they’ll count on a bunch of their holdovers to turn in better showings, though their staff will take a big hit in the event they deal Gray (a potential trade candidate) before the season.

Los Angeles Angels (5.64 ERA/5.41 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Angels’ rotation suffered a terrible blow in the fall of 2018 when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery, costing him all of last season, and then tragedy struck last July when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Considering the circumstances, it’s not surprising the Angels’ staff reeled last season. Nevertheless, adding reinforcements was clearly in order for this winter. The problem is that the Angels still haven’t found a way to acquire a proven front-of-the-rotation type, which many expected to them to get when the winter began. Ohtani’s back, which is a major plus. Meanwhile, the acquisitions of innings-eaters Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran should help matters, but they’re not going to frighten opposing offenses. The Angels figure to keep trying to better their rotation in the coming months, though the open market has dried up and teams seemingly aren’t champing at the bit to move big-time starters via trade now.

Baltimore Orioles (5.57 ERA/5.72 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Bundy, who led the O’s rotation in innings last season, is now gone. 2019 success story John Means remains in place, and Alex Cobb will be back in the wake of injuries that limited him to three starts. Those two aside, there’s little in the way of established starters for rebuilding Baltimore, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club try to find a cheap starter(s) in free agency before the season begins. The team did make an interesting move when it used the second pick of the Rule 5 Draft on 25-year-old righty Brandon Bailey, whom Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs calls a “spin rate monster.”

Detroit Tigers (5.51 ERA/4.66 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Detroit’s rotation mix actually looks pretty promising, though it’s possible the team will weaken the mix by trading Matthew Boyd before the season. As of now, he’s back at the helm of a group that also got respectable performances from Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris last year. Stud prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning are gaining on the majors, meanwhile, and Michael Fulmer should factor back in sometime this year after Tommy John surgery kept him away in 2019. Furthermore, the Tigers just signed the durable Ivan Nova to a cheap contract to serve as their resident back-end innings-eater. Jordan Zimmerman, arguably the weakest link in the chain, is also the most expensive. Mercifully for the Tigers, he’s finally entering the last season of what has been an albatross contract for the club.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5.19 ERA/4.78 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Pirates, already without staff leader Jameson Taillon for most of last season, suffered a horrid blow when he underwent a TJ procedure in August. He won’t be part of the 2020 staff as a result, leaving holdovers Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams at the helm of an uninspiring-looking bunch. Barring a trade, the hope is that the once-terrific Archer will put a nightmarish first year and a half as a Pirate behind him. Archer was markedly better as last season progressed, so there does seem to be some hope for a full-season bounce-back effort. The unit will include some speculative candidates in Tommy John rehabber Chad Kuhl and talented 23-year-old Mitch Keller, who struggled as a rookie but remains a premium pitching prospect.

The original version of this post mistakenly indicated that Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. His procedure occurred in September of 2018.

Managers, Top Front Office Execs On Expiring Contracts

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Monday was one of the most stunning days baseball has seen in recent memory. Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch, who oversaw several contending teams in Houston and led the club to a World Series championship, lost their jobs as a result of a sign-stealing scandal. Before accusations against the Astros arose several weeks ago, neither Luhnow nor Hinch looked likely to leave their posts for the foreseeable future. Now, though, the Astros are the lone team in baseball that doesn’t have a clear answer at either spot (though the Red Sox could join the Astros soon if the league drops the hammer on manager Alex Cora). But what about after the 2020 season? Which clubs could be in need then?

With help from the ever-valuable Cot’s Baseball Contracts, let’s take a look at clubs whose GMs and/or managers are entering contract years. As a reminder, this list might not be complete or fully accurate. Some teams may have extended their lame-duck executives/skippers and not publicized those moves yet, for instance, while other individuals in those spots could have less job security than it appears.

Angels: Entering the 2016 season, the Angels hired general manager Billy Eppler to helm a franchise led by all-world center fielder Mike Trout. As was the case then, Trout remains on a collision course with a Cooperstown plaque. The problem is that the Angels have continually failed to take advantage of his presence. Since Eppler came aboard, they haven’t even posted a .500 season. They’re also on their third manager (Mike Scioscia, whom Eppler inherited, then Brad Ausmus and now Joe Maddon) since their GM assumed the reins. Eppler has been rather aggressive this offseason as he works on a turnaround, though, having signed third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $235MM contract, picked up catcher Jason Castro and added starters Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. The acquisition of a much-needed front-line rotation piece this winter has eluded Eppler, who will perhaps keep trying to land one before the season. Regardless, it appears to be put up-or-shut up time for Eppler. Should the Angels fail to make significant progress in the upcoming campaign, it seems likely they’ll have a new GM a year from now.

Blue Jays: The partnership consisting of president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins has been going on since before 2016. The Blue Jays were then on the cusp of their second straight ALCS-bound season, but they’ve since launched a rebuild and endured three consecutive losing campaigns. Shapiro’s now going into the final season of his contract, though he and the organization are willing to discuss an extension, while Atkins’ status is a bit less clear. Atkins signed an extension last June, but it’s unknown whether it will go beyond the coming season. One thing’s for sure, however: This has been a busy offseason for Shapiro and Atkins, as the Jays have acquired four pitchers (Hyun-Jin Ryu, who cost the team an $80MM commitment, as well as Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi) and infielder Travis Shaw.

Braves: The two-year extension Snitker inked in 2018 has a team option for 2021, in which he and the Braves will go for their third straight NL East title. Snitker, who took over as interim manager in 2016, endured a couple losing seasons before his recent run of success and has not been able to secure a playoff series win thus far. The overall results have been good, however, so it stands to reason the Braves will exercise Snitker’s option if they have another playoff-caliber season.

Nationals: The extension the Nationals gave GM Mike Rizzo a couple years back reportedly lasts through 2020, while manager Dave Martinez has a club option for ’21. Back when the Nats re-upped Rizzo, they were known as a talented team that couldn’t break through in the fall. That finally happened in 2019, the year the franchise finally took home its first World Series. Thanks in part to that triumph, it would be a stunner to see the Nats allow Rizzo or Martinez to get away anytime soon.

Royals: Like Rizzo, it doesn’t seem Moore’s in any danger of exiting his current organization. Moore, KC’s GM since 2006, has only overseen two playoff teams, but the Royals sure made those seasons count. They won the AL pennant in 2015 and then the World Series the next year. They’re now amid a rebuild and coming off two 100-loss seasons, and are likely in for another lean year. Still, new owner John Sherman is reportedly set to hand Moore an extension to keep him atop the franchise’s baseball hierarchy.

Tigers: GM Al Avila seems to be safe, at least from a contractual standpoint, but the rebuilding Tigers could go in another direction in the dugout soon. Veteran skipper Ron Gardenhire’s not signed beyond then, and there doesn’t appear to be any hurry on the team’s part to change that. While Gardenhire enjoyed plenty of success with the division-rival Twins from 2002-14, he signed off for a difficult job in Detroit. The club, which hasn’t had much talent throughout Gardenhire’s reign, has gone 111-212 on his two-season watch. The Tigers have somewhat beefed up their roster this winter, though, and that should give Gardenhire a legit chance to help lead the team to a better output than its 47-win mark in 2019. Detroit has redone the right side of its infield by signing first baseman C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop, improved at catcher by adding Austin Romine and landed innings-eater Ivan Nova for their rotation. Nothing splashy there, but Gardenhire’s probably happy to have those vets aboard after he had to guide such a sorry roster a season ago.

Yankees: This is the last guaranteed year of Boone’s contract, though his deal does include a club option for 2021. At this rate, the Yankees will exercise it, as Boone has made an almost seamless transition from the broadcast booth to the dugout. He has two 100-win seasons in as many attempts, has helped the Yankees to an ALCS, and nearly won AL Manager of the Year honors during an injury-laden 2019 for the club. Expectations will be even higher this season, though, considering Boone now has ace Gerrit Cole at the front of his rotation.

MLBTR Poll: The Astros Scandal

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It’s a rather ugly day for baseball, even if we saw it coming. The Astros’ video-aided sign-stealing effort had already been laid bare by video evidence. But all the underlying facts weren’t known. And it was far from clear how commissioner Rob Manfred would handle the punishment.

As it turns out, the Houston organization was hit with a $5MM fine (the maximum permissible) and the loss of four top draft choices. General manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were each suspended for a year. The team subsequently fired both men. Then-bench coach and current Red Sox manager Alex Cora also seems likely to be punished, though his precise comeuppance has yet to be determined pending an investigation into the Boston organization.

For full details on the team punishments, click here. In brief: Manfred found that a 2017 scheme to convey signs to batters in real-time “was, with the exception of Cora, player-driven and player-executed.” An ensuing effort “to decode signs using the center field camera was originated and executed by lower-level baseball operations employees working in conjunction with Astros players and Cora.” Punishing players was deemed “impractical given the large number of players involved, and the fact that many of those players now play for other Clubs.” That wasn’t the only reasoning, though. More relevant, Manfred said, was the fact that GMs and managers are made “responsible for ensuring that the players both understand the rules and adhere to them.”

So, our first poll question: was the assessment of a fine and taking of four top draft choices an appropriate punishment for the organization? Some around the game weren’t satisfied, but how do you see it? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

While he declined to pursue players — beyond the factors he noted, there’d have been major labor-relations implications and complications under the CBA — Manfred did still find that individual punishment was warranted for those in a position of added responsibility. Specifically, Luhnow and Hinch received personal punishment. (Cora, an active participant, presumably will as well.) Manfred did not find any reason to discipline or chastise Crane personally. To the contrary, he specifically cleared the owner of culpability. Evidently, the oversight responsibility concepts that undergirded the punishment of Hinch and (especially) Luhnow did not extend past the baseball operations department.

Whether there was any coordination or exchange of information between the league and the Astros regarding the firing of those two leaders is not known. But the team’s subsequent action certainly added quite some heft to the total blow that landed.  For full details on the firings, click here.

Luhnow disclaimed any knowledge of the schemes, though the report indicates he likely had some level of awareness of the team’s 2018 efforts. His statement cited the report’s reference to lower-level employee and player responsibility, though he also acknowledged and accepted his own failure of oversight. Luhnow was punished because he “failed to take any adequate steps to ensure that his Club was in compliance with the rules.” Manfred also blasted the culture that Luhnow created in the baseball operations department, a characterization that Crane disputed.

Ultimately, Luhnow was suspended for one year and dismissed from his position. Fair? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

As for Hinch, the circumstances were somewhat different. He was unquestionably aware that the sign-stealing efforts were ongoing and acknowledged as much in his statement. While he is said to have disagreed and at times even attempted to interfere with the stratagem, Hinch obviously did not utilize his authority or avail himself of the available means of halting the effort. In his statement after today’s outcome, he apologized for that failure.

Like the GM, Hinch received a one-year ban and ended up canned. Was this a just outcome? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Context For The 2020 Arbitration Class

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The just-finished flurry of arbitration news settled a bunch of price points. Some are reasonably notable; many were already largely anticipated and accounted for. More than ever before, the deals were closely fought (is it me or did they used to settle at rounder numbers?) and closely held (heaven forbid anyone learn anything any second before absolutely necessary). But at the end of the day, quite a few hit the books.

But what of the unfinished negotiations — those that did not come to resolution? I’m going to endeavor to give some context to the slate of arb-eligible players who’ve exchanged figures with their respective teams.

As you may have heard, or picked up from following along for some time, the arbitration process has evolved quite rapidly over the past several years. Once upon a time, there weren’t many hearings at all. There weren’t any in 2013 and we had only a few piddling disputes to be heard in 2014. The action picked up quite a bit in the ensuing winter, as 14 cases went to hearings — some for a decent bit of coin. But things went back on ice in 2016, when there were four hearings, none with more than $550K at stake.

Teams and players exchanged figures plenty often in those days. There were typically more than thirty unresolved cases when the mid-January deadline rolled around. And, clearly, some cases did go to hearings. But for most teams, there was a willingness to continue a dialogue well past the exchange of figures. In many situations, the exchange of figures was just a step towards a negotiated resolution.

The “file and trial” concept certainly existed in those days, but the majority of teams didn’t employ it. Now, it’s functionally universal. Many clubs will keep talking, but most will only do so if it involves future seasons beyond the one subject to the upcoming hearing.

Let’s take a closer look at the recent numbers to see this in action. After the dust settled yesterday, we were left with twenty unresolved cases — far fewer than would’ve remained un-done even a few years ago. It’s possible that all could go to hearings, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com suggests on Twitter, though surely there’ll be some kind of multi-year breakthrough in at least a few cases. That’s almost certainly what it’ll take to avoid a hearing, as we’ve seen a near-complete elimination of pure settlements after the exchange of figures.

Back in 2017, among the 29 instances of figure filing, seven were eventually tied up with single-season arb settlements. Three more involved arbitration-only extensions or option additions. There were four full-blown extensions. And just more than half of the cases went to trial, with the teams edging the players 8 to 7 in outcomes.

In the ensuing year, there was yet further creep. Among the 27 filing situations, all but five went to trial. (The players prevailed a dozen times.) One open matter was closed with a long-term extension, another was resolved by an arb-only deal, and three were settled in the traditional, one-year manner.

In 2019, there were only 14 cases in which figures were exchanged. Among them, only two were settled — both with contracts that included club options that created cost certainty in a future season. Two more involved significant, multi-year extensions. The balance went to hearings, with the players winning six of ten times.

The primary takeaway, then, is that the remaining contractual spreads are likely to go one way or the other — unless a multi-year arrangement of some kind can be arranged. That’ll actually be relatively more difficult now than before for a different reason. In 2020, six of the twenty filers are in their final season of arbitration eligibility. The prior classes had far fewer: 2 of 14, 2 of 27, and 4 of 29. Working out deals involving seasons of presumptive free agency is quite a bit more complicated.

So, is this an especially high-stakes year? In some regards, yes. It features the largest absolute case we’ve seen in some time in George Springer, whose filing figure of $22.5MM is a whopping $5MM north of the team’s counter. Million+ dollar spreads are fairly rare. Three were settled in 2017 (Drew Pomeranz, Pedro Strop, Jake Diekman). Two more settled in 2018; Springer also avoided a hearing, agreeing to a two-year deal. But Mookie Betts and Trevor Bauer both won trials that year with big money at stake. Bauer and Gerrit Cole repeated the feat in 2019. In 2020, there are three big-money cases, with Josh Hader and J.T. Realmuto joining Springer with voluminous spreads. There are also some big spreads in relative terms. The Brewers’ two open cases — with Hader and fellow lefty Brent Suter — each features 50+% spreads (as against the team number) in value. We’ve rarely seen that kind of spread, though there was one greater that went to trial: Dellin Betances, in 2017. He lost that memorable case. But his agents at Excel are still willing to duke it out; per Passan, via Twitter, they lead the way with six of the still-open cases this winter.

From a global perspective, there isn’t necessarily more at stake than has been the case in recent years. The total player demands this year tally $128.4MM, with the team counters amounting to $108.2MM — good for a $20.2MM gap. There was obviously far less at stake last year with so few cases, though the total ~18% net spread between the sides is about the same. The tallies look different in prior years. In 2018, we saw nearly $140MM in demands but only a $18MM+ gulf, so the spread was a narrower 15.25%. The cases were smaller on average in 2017, with a file/counter split of $113.55MM and $95MM, but that was good for nearly a 20% divide — the largest of the four-season sample.

All things considered, it seems that the 2020 arbitration hearing class is more a culmination of recent developments than terra incognita. Perhaps it will function as a new standard for years to come. Then again, as the above exercise shows us, the tendency always is one of change. It’s possible we’ll begin to see new trends emerging; some may now be hiding in plain sight while we focus on those that have already been identified.

Checking In On Last Season’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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If you can believe it, sub-.500 teams comprised the majors’ five lowest-scoring offenses in 2019. With the offseason a couple months old and with most of the top free agents off the board, those teams have all had time to improve at the plate. But have they? Let’s take a look…

Detroit Tigers (582 runs, 77 wRC+)

  • Among Tigers regulars, only outfielder Nicholas Castellanos (whom they traded to the Cubs in July) and fellow outfielder Victor Reyes posted league average or better numbers last season. But the non-contending club has at least made an effort to upgrade its offense this winter. The Tigers have signed first baseman C.J. Cron and second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who were members of the division-rival Twins last year, as well as ex-Yankees catcher Austin Romine. None of those players will strike fear in the hearts of the opposition, but they’re respectable contributors who should be vast improvements over the hitters the Tigers ran out in those spots in 2019.

Miami Marlins (615 runs, 79 wRC+)

  • Like the Tigers, the Marlins have made a legitimate effort to get better this offseason. They’ve remade a good portion of their infield, where first baseman Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar (who could play a super-utility role in 2020) are now aboard. Miami has also grabbed outfielder Corey Dickerson, who was the most productive offensive player of the trio last season. And former Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli, who was highly valuable in 2018 before concussions helped stall his career in 2019, is in the mix as a backup to Jorge Alfaro. The Marlins should still be a sub-.500 club in the upcoming season, but at least they’ve put in some work to step up on offense.

San Francisco Giants (678 runs, 83 wRC+)

  • Aside from letting go of center fielder Kevin Pillar and deciding not to re-sign catcher Stephen Vogt or third baseman Pablo Sandoval, this has been a quiet offensive offseason for the Giants. Their projected lineup for 2020 includes nothing but familiar faces from last year. So, unless the likes of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford channel their younger selves next season, it could be another lean showing for the Giants.

San Diego Padres (682 runs, 88 wRC+)

  • As far as spending on hitters goes, the Padres were one of the active teams in the game during the previous two offseasons. They added first baseman Eric Hosmer on an eight-year, $144MM guarantee two winters ago and third baseman Manny Machado on a 10-year, $300MM pact less than a year back. Neither decision has worked out all that well for the team thus far, and now it has taken a more modest approach. But that’s not to say the Padres have been silent. They picked up high-OBP outfielder Tommy Pham from the Rays, young OFer Trent Grisham from the Brewers and second baseman Jurickson Profar from the Athletics in separate trades. Pham’s the lone member of the trio who inspires much confidence at the plate, but the Padres are banking on all three to help them break a long playoff drought in 2020. And if the team has its druthers, it’ll find a taker via trade for outfielder Wil Myers, but his albatross contract (three years, $60MM) could prevent that from happening.

Kansas City Royals (691 runs, 84 wRC+)

  • The Royals, who lost 207 games from 2018-19, have done little to nothing at the plate this offseason. Third baseman Maikel Franco, who failed to live up to the hype in Philadelphia, joined KC on an affordable contract. There hasn’t been much otherwise, though, and the Royals continue to await left fielder Alex Gordon’s decision on whether to retire. Even if Gordon sticks around, he hasn’t been a legit threat at the plate since 2015. Maybe catcher Sal Perez will provide an impact bat after sitting out all of 2019 because of Tommy John surgery?

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.

Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.

The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers.  A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.

Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.

Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.

Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.

Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.

Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, George Springer, and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here. 

As first-year arbitration awards continue to grow with the revenue and payrolls in baseball today, they provide higher platforms through which arbitration records in later years can be more easily broken. Mookie Betts will go through the arbitration process one more time after earning $20.1MM including bonuses during his penultimate year through the arb process, putting him in line to potentially break Nolan Arenado’s record of $26MM his last time through arbitration. Betts’ potential salary is high enough that he has frequently been featured in trade rumors as the Red Sox seek to reset themselves below the luxury tax threshold in 2020.

Either way, Betts’ case is going to simultaneously take a large chunk of someone’s payroll while also being a relative bargain to similarly-producing free agents. After a historic season in 2018 in which Betts hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases, and racked up an amazing slash line of .346/.438/.640, Betts had a slightly more pedestrian year — by his standards — in 2019. Betts batted .295 and hit 29 home runs while stealing 16 bases, while recording 80 RBI and a league-leading 135 runs scored.

The model uses the generally accurate fact that players’ salaries in subsequent years in arbitration are determined as raises based on their platform year production alone. So while Betts may not have had a historic season, he does have a good case for breaking Arenado’s record, thanks to Betts’ $20.1MM salary in 2019. My model projects a $7.6MM raise for 2020, which would land the Red Sox outfielder at $27.7MM.

Even coming down to earth in 2019, Betts still put up rare numbers. There are very few hitters who have reached their third year of arbitration eligibility with at least 25 home runs and double-digit stolen bases in their platform year — in the last five years, only four players hit both plateaus. Charlie Blackmon got a $6.7MM raise in 2018 after hitting .331 with 37 homers, 104 RBI, and 14 steals the prior year.

Although Blackmon’s batting average obviously bested Betts’ .295, the other three hitters had far lower averages. Todd Frazier hit .225 with 40 HR, 98 RBI, and 15 steals and got just a $3.75MM raise in 2017. Didi Gregorius hit .268/27/86 with 10 stolen bases and got a $3.5MM raise last year, while Aaron Hicks hit .248/27/79 with 11 stolen bases last year en route to a $3.2MM raise.  Still, the Red Sox could argue that Betts may deserve a smaller bump over Frazier, Gregorius, and Hicks, and potentially less than Blackmon’s $6.7MM.

Obviously, we are limiting the potential list of comparables by requiring double-digit stolen bases. A couple more recent names (both third basemen) emerge when dropping that requirement. Anthony Rendon got a $6.5MM raise in 2018 after putting up a solid .301/25/100 campaign — and that could easily serve as a benchmark for Betts. Arenado last year got an $8.25MM raise after a .297/38/110 season. Given that Arenado’s numbers were at Coors Field, Betts could certainly argue for that as a basis.

I suspect Betts would be able to successfully argue for at least topping Rendon’s $6.5MM, although Blackmon’s $6.7MM could be a ceiling. I could see Betts even getting up to an $8.25MM raise like Arenado did last year as well, though that might be more difficult. Based on this list of potential comps, the $5.9MM Betts would need to break Arenado’s record definitely seems doable if not guaranteed, and the model’s $7.6MM projection does seem out of reach either.

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