Headlines

  • Yu Darvish Contemplating Retirement, Has Not Made Final Decision
  • Guardians Agree To Extension With Jose Ramirez
  • White Sox To Sign Seranthony Domínguez
  • Nationals Rebuffed Interest From Giants In CJ Abrams
  • Rangers Acquire MacKenzie Gore
  • Brewers Trade Freddy Peralta To Mets
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Athletics
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025-26 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • Free Agent Contest Leaderboard
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Road Trippin’

By Tim Dillard | April 12, 2017 at 4:17pm CDT

It’s 11:32am on Wednesday April 12th 2017.  “ALLOW ME TO REINTRODUCE MYSELF!  MY NAME IS” not Jay-Z… it’s Tim Dillard.  And this is my fifth entry for MLB Trade Rumors.  The check cleared!  So I’m back, chronologically writing down all my baseball thoughts.

11:34am  I’m a sidearm relief pitcher for the minor league Colorado Springs Sky Sox baseball team.  A few nights ago we bused from The Springs to Denver, then flew on a United Airlines commercial plane to Memphis, Tennessee.  This is where we will start a four game stint against the Memphis Redbirds, the St. Louis Cardinals class Triple-A affiliate.

11:37am  During the flight out here, our plane experienced some above average turbulence.  Like on a scale from one to ten, this turbulencity was probably a six and a half or maybe seven.  I mean, personally I really don’t mind flying.  But for some reason, a few of my teammates just seem to be uncomfortable in a… 450-ton pressurized man-made metal machine screaming through the sky at 500 knots while 7 miles up in the atmosphere!

11:40am  But it was fine.  AND it reminded me of another eventful road trip I once had!

11:41am  Back in 2007, I was on a really turbulent team flight with current Braves knuckleballer and former Cy Young Award winning pitcher R.A. Dickey. (name drop: successful)  We sat together a lot that year… I think it goes alphabetically.  Anyway, on this particular flight, if your seatbelt wasn’t buckled, you were hitting the ceiling!  Or the seat in front of you!  Or the person sitting beside you.  Or body-slapping the window! (it was at least an EIGHT on the bumpy scale)

11:45am  Well… after several minutes of gripping the armrests as hard as I could, trying to stay calm, and hearing the shrieks from the other scared passengers, my friend R.A. Dickey looked up at me.  And I looked up at him, and I was staring straight into his eyes when he opened his beardy mouth and yelled, “Dilly! It’s like we’re riding on a Dickey Knuckleball right now!”

11:50am  Pretty sure I laughed AFTER we landed.

11:50am  The hotel maid may have just knocked on my door.

11:53am  Yeah it was the maid. I thought I put the “Do Not Disturb” sign out, but it was one of those two-sided signs. The other side says “Please Service My Room, Thank You!”  Crap.  Just told her I’d be out in thirty minutes.

11:54am  Okay, so where was I… oh yes “Dilly!”

11:55am  You know, every road trip has a story or something meaningful happen if you look hard enough.  Like in 2006, when our team bus slammed into a giant wood utility poll that had fallen off the back of a semi at 2:30am.  Or in 2013, when I had to jump onto the back of a moving pickup truck to catch a ferry back to the mainland after playing a baseball game on some island in Mexico.

11:59am  Actually, before we left on this current road trip, a teammate brought two boxes of delicious donuts into the clubhouse.  That was pretty special.  BUT… there are only two reasons why a player would think to bring community donuts into the clubhouse:  Either they just want to be a good and thoughtful teammate, OR… they can read MINDS!  Either way, I’m keeping my eye on you Eric Sogard, but maybe… you already knew that. (name drop: numero dos)

12:04pm  Dang.  Another knock.  This hotel maid really wants to clean this room.

12:06pm  Something weird about myself:  I’ve kept every key card from every hotel I’ve stayed at my entire career dating back to 2003.  The only key I didn’t keep was a real key, like a real metal key, from a motel in Montana.  Because the fee for taking or losing that real key was $25.

12:09pm  Not to mention all the “free” hotel pens I’ve acquired over the years.  I remember in 2008 I was at my house looking for a pen.  I looked in every drawer, basket, bag, purse, and glove compartment.  Didn’t even see a stupid pencil.  And after searching for a long time, I realized that my wife and I did not have a single writing utensil in the entire house.  So this frustration gave birth.  And shouted, “NEVER AGAIN!”  So now I’m proud to be the “owner” of over 4oo hotel pens!

12:09pm  I also keep movie ticket stubs.  I have over 350 ticket stubs from movies I’ve seen dating back to 1999! <-(and yes, I put an exclamation point here because I’m proud of this, but also realize how nerdy and lame this makes me appear)

12:11pm  What else?  Oh yeah, my sticker bench!  I have a bench in my office at home that has stickers all over it.  I started letting my kids slap stickers on it for fun, but over the years it has gotten a little more serious.  Now every city I travel through, or restaurant I eat, or basically any business establishment I encounter, I find myself asking if they have stickers.  Maybe one day I will consider it finished, and then lacquer the crap out of that thing.  And BOOM! …family heirloom!

12:14pm  I have no idea what I’m writing at this point.  Honestly I can’t believe people read my blog things.  But I guess a year in the Big Leagues and over thirteen in the minor leagues can qualify a person to write opinions and experiences about baseball stuff.

12:16pm  Yesterday a kid messaged me over Twitter.  My alias on Twitter is @DimTillard.  I chose @DimTillard because when I went to sign up, there were 25 other “Tim Dillards”.  So after finding out how UNspecial I was… I went with @DimTillard.  Anyway, this kid messaged me contemplating quitting college baseball at the end of the season.  I told him everyone’s baseball path is different.  I said it doesn’t mean your path is more or less special, it just means that it’s your path to walk down.

12:19pm  Being late at night and tired… that actually made total sense to me.  But in the light of day, I think what I meant to say was something like:  Over my many baseball seasons, I’ve learned it doesn’t matter whether you only played t-ball or have a 10-year MLB career.  What matters is baseball and the relationships.  Baseball was here before I got here, and baseball will be here long after I’m gone.  It’s how we treat the game and the people… that really matters.

12:23pm  Ok yeah it’s time to leave the room.  This hotel maid has camped outside the door and is ready for me to vacate.  Too bad I made my bed, and refolded the towel I used.  Ha!  Good luck Jacquelyn!

To Be Concluded…

Share Repost Send via email

MLBTR Originals Player's Perspective

4 comments

Transaction Retrospection: The Elvis Andrus Extension

By Jeff Todd | April 11, 2017 at 2:28pm CDT

In early April of 2013, the Rangers struck what was then described by GM Jon Daniels as “an unusual deal” with shortstop Elvis Andrus. Daniels was likely referring to the complicated structure, which included two opt-out opportunities (following the 2018 and 2019 campaigns), but it has proven unusual in other ways.

Apr 5, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus (1) throws to first in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Opt-out provisions are now fairly common, particularly in large free-agent deals and extensions reached with players who already have significant service time. But contracts of the size of the Andrus deal — which guaranteed him $120MM over eight years (beginning in 2015) — are a rarity for players of that general service time. Andrus, who had already agreed to one prior extension, had just begun his 4+ service-class year. Since his deal was made, just two players with at least three but less than five years of service — i.e., experienced players who aren’t entering a contract year — have cleared $100MM in guaranteed money. Those other deals went to franchise faces Giancarlo Stanton and Freddie Freeman.

Indeed, Andrus looks like something of an outlier when you expand the terms further to include 2+ players and look a bit further back. In addition to the three players noted above, here’s the list of players who scored nine-figure guarantees when they had more than two but less than five years of service (within the time period covered by MLBTR’s Extension Tracker):

  • Kyle Seager (2+): seven years, $100MM
  • Evan Longoria (4+): six years, $100MM
  • Ryan Braun (3+): five years, $105MM
  • Ryan Howard (4+): five years, $125MM
  • Mike Trout (2+): six years, $144.5MM
  • Miguel Cabrera (4+): eight years, $152.3MM
  • Troy Tulowitzki (4+): ten years, $157.75MM
  • Buster Posey (2+): eight years, $159MM
  • Joey Votto (4+): ten years, $225MM

Needless to say, these were all players who were (or, at least, were viewed by their organizations as) franchise-level talents. Andrus was certainly on the young side for this group; he was then entering his age-24 campaign. Only Trout and Freeman were younger, the latter only marginally so. And its fair to note that Andrus landed clearly on the low side of the total guarantees included in this somewhat arbitrary list.

Still, it was then and remains surprising to see Andrus in such company. Also, the opt-out opportunities weren’t present in those other contracts, which reduced the team’s upside. He had yet to post even a league-average batting line (and wouldn’t crack that barrier until 2016). And though he did rate as a high-quality fielder and outstanding baserunner, he graded out more as a quality first-division regular than a superstar. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference each valued his 2011 season as his best, with the former crediting him with 4.0 WAR and the latter pegging the overall value at 4.2 WAR.

The first two years after the agreement weren’t kind to the team. Between 2014 and 2015, Andrus slashed just .261/.312/.345. While he swiped 52 bags, he was gunned down on 24 attempts. And his fielding grades took a precipitous tumble. Entering the 2016 season, Texas was still on the hook for $103MM over the following seven years. And it seemed rather unlikely that Andrus would bail on the contract’s back end.

Things did change for the better last year, however. Though Andrus didn’t recover his standing as a baserunner and gloveman, he did finally break through somewhat at the plate. Over 568 plate appearances, he slashed .302/.362/.439 — representing career-best marks in all three categories and working out to a 112 wRC+. There were some underlying changes at work, many of which represented carryovers from a shift that began the season prior. It was in 2015 that Andrus began to take a more aggressive approach, increasing his swing rate, producing a big drop in his groundball-to-flyball ratio and increasing the number of balls he pulled while largely maintaining his typically excellent contact skills.

Of course, Andrus wasn’t all that good with the bat in 2015. The biggest difference between that season and his strong 2016? Yep, a fifty point jump in BABIP (from .283 to .333). It’s an open question whether 2015 was weighed down by bad luck or whether 2016 was boosted by good fortune — perhaps the answer lies somewhere in the middle — but the Rangers will surely hope it’s the former. Andrus has hit well in the early going in 2017, despite carrying a .278 BABIP, though it’s far too soon to know whether that will continue.

As things stand, Andrus will open the current season with a six-year, $88MM deal that still includes the two opt-out chances. (Andrus can opt out of four years and $58MM or three years and $43MM.) It’s questionable whether he’d have received anything like that on the open market this past winter, though perhaps that depends in part upon how organizations view his current tools and how they value his 2016 season — which B-Ref values at a robust 3.7 WAR, but Fangraphs pegs at only 2.1 WAR.

It seems rather unlikely that the Rangers will get the kind of value they hoped for when they paid Andrus like a premier player. Indeed, they arguably didn’t even receive a fair ROI for the $15MM salaries Andrus took down in each of the past two seasons. But it’s still possible the deal could work out reasonably well over the long run, or even that he’ll find cause to opt out; after all, with two productive years, Andrus could conceivably expect to find yet more money on the open market in advance of his age-30 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share Repost Send via email

MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers Transaction Retrospection Elvis Andrus

11 comments

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

By charliewilmoth | April 11, 2017 at 9:31am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Facing a number of high-profile defections and about as many big holes, the Rangers faced a tough task this winter. Their acquisitions are just talented enough to work out well for them, but they’ll need some luck to approach their 95-win total from 2016.

Major League Signings

  • Carlos Gomez, OF: one year, $11.5MM
  • Andrew Cashner, RHP: one year, $10MM
  • Mike Napoli, 1B: one year, $8.5MM, including $2.5MM buyout on $11MM 2018 team option
  • Tyson Ross, RHP: one year, $6MM
  • Dillon Gee, RHP: Major League contract
  • Total spend: $36MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired RHP Tyrell Jenkins and LHP Brady Feigl for RHP Luke Jackson (the Rangers later lost Jenkins on waivers)
  • Acquired RHP Eddie Gamboa from Rays for a player to be named
  • Claimed RHP Tyler Wagner from Diamondbacks
  • Claimed RHP Mike Hauschild from Astros
  • Claimed RHP Brady Dragmire from Pirates (later outrighted)

Notable Minor League Signings

Josh Hamilton, James Loney (since released), Travis Snider, Will Middlebrooks, Allen Webster, Anthony Bass, Bobby LaFromboise

Extensions

  • Rougned Odor, 2B: six years, $49.5MM, including $3MM buyout on $13.5MM option for 2023
  • Robinson Chirinos, C: one year (2018), $2.35MM, including $100K buyout on $2.375MM option for 2019

Contract Options

  • Jonathan Lucroy, C: $5.25MM or a $250K buyout (exercised)
  • Derek Holland, SP: $11MM or a $1.5MM buyout (declined)

Notable Losses

Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Mitch Moreland, Colby Lewis, Holland

Needs Addressed

Heading into the winter, the Rangers faced a number of potential high-profile defections, including those of Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Beltran, and a limited amount of cash with which to address them — the Rangers’ budget was somewhat restricted by high-dollar, low-value contracts such as those of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, as well as expensive deals for Cole Hamels, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Yu Darvish.

In particular, the Rangers needed to replace key players in their outfield, upgrade their rotation and find a solution at first base and/or DH. In their rotation, the Rangers sensibly declined longtime starter Derek Holland’s $11MM option, paying him a $1.5MM buyout after a season in which he posted a 4.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 while struggling with shoulder trouble. They also parted ways with another longtime starter, 37-year-old Colby Lewis, whose 3.71 ERA in 2016 masked lousy peripherals. Lewis remains a free agent.

The free-agent market for starting pitchers was poor, giving the Rangers limited opportunities to find another solid starter to complement Hamels, Darvish and Martin Perez. Instead, they gambled on two interesting former Padres arms, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. Both are relatively young pitchers with tantalizing stuff, but they also both come with major question marks.

Andrew CashnerCashner received $10MM and will enter the Rangers’ rotation as soon as he’s ready, likely sometime late this month. The 30-year-old brings mid-90s heat and a hard slider, but he’s never gotten the sorts of strikeout rates you’d associate with that repertoire, and he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 5.25 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 while fading down the stretch. It will be up to the Rangers to figure out why. Cashner has used his changeup less and less frequently over the years, and the pitch has been less effective when he’s thrown it; reestablishing that pitch might be a key to reviving his career. As Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris points out, Rangers catcher Jonathan Lucroy might be able to help Cashner with his quality pitch framing. In any case, Cashner’s an interesting gamble, although $10MM seems like a lot to pay given his recent performances. He’ll also begin the season on the DL due to biceps tendinitis.

The Rangers also added Tyson Ross, whose main problem is health. The 29-year-old had back-to-back excellent seasons in San Diego in 2014 and 2015, but pitched only one outing in 2016 due to shoulder trouble, and finally had offseason surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome. The Padres non-tendered him in December, and the Rangers lured him away from the Cubs with a $6MM deal. He isn’t ready yet, but he’s progressed to throwing bullpens and simulated games, and could be ready to join the Rangers early in May. It remains to be seen whether the Rangers will be getting the pitcher who struck out a batter an inning and posted ground-ball rates in the 60% range in 2014 and 2015. Ross can help them if he’s even half that good, but it’s difficult at this point to project with any certainty that he will be.

The Rangers thus began the season with a rotation that features neither of the key starting pitchers they acquired. Darvish, Hamels, Perez and A.J. Griffin (who struggled to a 5.07 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 2016 after missing two full seasons to injury) will comprise the initial rotation, with Cashner perhaps joining in mid-April when the team needs a fifth starter. The Rangers initially signed Dillon Gee to a minor-league deal, and then, after he opted out, re-signed him to a big-league contract and optioned him to Triple-A; he represents an alternative if Cashner isn’t ready to go. Given the considerable question marks surrounding Cashner, Ross, Griffin and Gee (and, if we want to get really pessimistic, Perez, who posted a very shaky 4.7 K/9 last season), the Rangers’ rotation still looks iffy, although it’s also easy to see the upside if Cashner and Ross pan out.

In the outfield, the Rangers lost Desmond to the Rockies, who agreed to pay him $70MM over five years. The Rangers, meanwhile, received the No. 29 pick in this year’s draft as compensation. The Rangers had interest in Desmond, but were wise not to match the Rockies’ offer — Desmond’s resurgence in 2016 was fueled by a career-best .350 BABIP, and he’s already 31.

Instead, the Rangers retained another outfielder, re-signing Carlos Gomez to a short-term deal to man center field. Gomez’s career seemed to be falling apart when the Astros released him last August, but he caught on with the Rangers down the stretch and batted .284/.362/.543, numbers worthy of his brilliant 2013-2014 run with Milwaukee. That sort of production probably won’t continue, but for a mere $11.5MM, the Rangers can get a good deal even if Gomez’s offense tails off. His hitting is hard to predict, and his 30.0% strikeout rate for the 2016 season is a bad sign, but he has defensive and baserunning value going for him, plus a bit of home-run power. All things considered, he seems good for about two wins above replacement, which would rather easily make him worth the value of his contract.

For first base and DH, the Rangers turned to another familiar face, that of Mike Napoli. The Rangers faced the loss not only of Beltran, but also longtime first baseman Mitch Moreland, whose production faded in 2016. Minor-league über-slugger Joey Gallo looked like an obvious candidate to take over at first, but the Rangers made clear at the beginning of the offseason that they felt the 23-year-old Gallo, who whiffed in a ghastly 34.6% of his plate appearances at Triple-A last year, ought to start 2017 in the minors. (Gallo began the season in the Majors anyway, taking over at third for Beltre, who is nursing a calf injury.)

Napoli is coming off a 34-homer season in Cleveland. The 35-year-old has always fared well in Texas — he had two of the best years of his career there in 2011 and 2012, and also was productive after the Red Sox dealt him to the Rangers in August 2015. It’s not a given his third stint with the team will go as well, given his age and his seemingly limited ability to hit for average. He batted just .248 in 2014, .227 in 2015 and .239 in 2016, and if his ability to make contact declines at all, he might have trouble hitting enough homers to compensate. As with the Gomez deal, though, it’s hard to argue with the limited commitment the Rangers made, coughing up only $11MM guaranteed and getting a 2018 team option in the deal as well.

The Rangers also exercised Lucroy’s $5.25MM 2017 option (probably the easiest move they made this winter), and extended backup Robinson Chirinos. Chirinos’ extension bought out his 2018 season, which would have been his last season of arbitration eligibility, for just $2.35MM, likely less than he would have gotten had he been even modestly productive in 2017. The Rangers also received a cheap option for 2019, giving them a couple years of flexibility as they prepare for Lucroy’s possible departure to free agency next winter. Chirinos had never been paid more than $1.55MM in a season prior to the extension, and, at age 32, might never have gotten another shot at a multiyear, multimillion-dollar contract. His new deal thus provides him with a bit of financial security.

Questions Remaining

The Rangers never did acquire another player to help at DH, and it appears they’ll have Choo soak a number of plate appearances there. In a vaccum, that makes sense — Choo has rated as a below-average outfield defender in the past several seasons, and he’s had health problems to boot. With Nomar Mazara slated for the bulk of the time in right, that leaves left field open to one of the most wide-open time shares in baseball.

Delino DeShields arguably sits atop the depth chart at left field, which seems like a questionable proposition. DeShields is coming off an outstanding spring in which he posted a .442 OBP, but he’s coming off a miserable 2016 season in which he batted just .209/.275/.313. At just 24, DeShields is young enough to improve, and he’ll certainly make the Rangers’ defense better. But his bat is a question mark. Neither Ryan Rua nor Drew Robinson have established a track record of offensive production at the major league level, but they’ll also factor in the mix.

Then, there’s Jurickson Profar, once an elite prospect and now something of a super-utility option. Though there was reported trade interest over the winter, Texas elected to hang onto Profar to see if he can restore some of his lost luster. He will participate in the game of musical chairs in left and might also step into the infield wherever a need arises. Gallo, too, could theoretically shift to the corner outfield in addition to seeing time in the corner infield or at DH, depending upon how the season progresses. For both of these top prospects, it’s something of a make-or-break year for their futures with the Rangers.

Then there’s the Rangers’ pitching staff. It’s always hard to know how a bullpen will perform, but the Rangers’ looks fine — their 2016 ’pen didn’t rate well overall, but they’re returning most of the relievers (including Sam Dyson, Matt Bush, Tony Barnette and Alex Claudio) who were key to their second half, when their bullpen did an outstanding job keeping the ball on the ground and were very effective overall. Another key reliever, Jake Diekman, will be out until at least the All-Star Break after having colon surgery. Jeremy Jeffress will need to keep his off-field issues in check to play his expected role; if he can do that and remain effective, then either he or Bush would represent alternatives at the closer role if Dyson’s early struggles continue.

They’ll have to get the ball to those pitchers, though, and their rotation looks like it could quickly boil down to Hamels, Darvish and then a bunch of uncertainties, particularly if Cashner and Ross don’t reemerge.

Deal Of Note

"<strongLate in Spring Training, the Rangers announced that they’d signed second baseman Rougned Odor to a six-year, $49.5MM deal with a club option for 2023. The deal buys out what would have been Odor’s first two free agent seasons, with an option for a third.

The deal is roughly comparable to recent six-year, one-option extensions for fellow second basemen Jason Kipnis and Matt Carpenter, who received $52.5MM and $52MM, respectively, when they had between two and three years of service time. It’s also interesting to compare Odor’s deal to that of another infielder’s recent extension: that of Jose Ramirez, who received just $26MM over five years and gave up two option years. Even if the Indians exercise Ramirez’s first option, he’ll only receive a total of $35MM, far less than Odor, Kipnis or Carpenter received.

It’s debatable whether Odor will be as valuable as Kipnis or Carpenter have proven to be — Odor produced a mere .296 OBP and questionable defensive numbers in 2016. But the outlier here is Ramirez’s contract, not Odor’s, and that ultimately isn’t surprising. Kipnis, Carpenter, Ramirez and Odor were all early enough in their careers at the time of their extensions that many of the yearly salaries their extensions covered would have been governed by the arbitration process, which values counting stats. While Odor doesn’t have the overall track record Kipnis or Carpenter did, his 33-homer total in 2016, if sustained, probably would have gotten him paid at a similar rate. That’s particularly likely since the Kipnis and Carpenter contracts are both now three years old.

Ramirez, meanwhile, had two uneven years before his breakout 2016 and hasn’t posted outstanding counting stats in any category. As a player, I’d probably prefer Ramirez to Odor, due to Ramirez’s defense and versatility, as well as the greater likelihood that he’ll continue to reach base at a palatable rate. But it makes sense that Odor was the one who got the big contract.

These are, of course, different questions than whether the Rangers should have extended Odor. Odor whiffed seven times as often as he walked in 2016, a worrying sign. He only recently turned 23, though, so there’s plenty of room for growth. And even if his career stagnates, his deal is still fairly cheap in the grand scheme of things despite being considerably more expensive than Ramirez’s, and his positional value, power and age insulate the Rangers somewhat against the possibility that the deal will go south.

Overview

The Rangers’ 95-win 2016 season was built on shaky ground — they only scored eight more runs than they allowed. This year, their weaknesses look fairly obvious, particularly in their rotation. They have enough marquee talent (including Hamels, Darvish, Beltre, and Lucroy, potentially along with players like Odor or young outfielder Nomar Mazara) to contend if things go well, however. Within that context, their signings of Cashner and Ross this offseason look like Hail Mary passes — those gambles don’t appear incredibly likely to produce huge dividends, but could be decisive for the team if they do. The Rangers might have a hard time topping the Astros this season. But it’s easy to see how they could.

If things don’t go as hoped, though, the front office will increasingly face questions about how to handle the next offseason. While the Rangers could revisit extension talks with Darvish and Lucroy, or pursue them on the open market, efforts at new deals fizzled this spring. That could leave two very notable holes on the roster at the end of the 2017 season.

How would you rate the Rangers’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rangers' offseason?
C 40.73% (701 votes)
B 31.78% (547 votes)
D 12.14% (209 votes)
F 9.01% (155 votes)
A 6.33% (109 votes)
Total Votes: 1,721
Photos courtesy USA Today Sports Images.
Share Repost Send via email

2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers

6 comments

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

By Jeff Todd | April 10, 2017 at 8:08pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

For the third time in five years, the 2016 Nats followed up on their NL East crown with a first-round departure from the postseason. And yet again, the club endeavored this winter to build around one of the game’s best core groups of talent.

Major League Signings

  • Matt Wieters, C: two years, $21MM (can opt out after 2017)
  • Joe Blanton, RP: one year, $4MM
  • Stephen Drew, IF: one year, $3.5MM
  • Adam Lind, 1B: one year, $1.5MM (includes $500K buyout on $5MM mutual option)
  • Chris Heisey, OF: one year, $1.4MM
  • Total spend: $31.4MM.

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired OF Adam Eaton from White Sox in exchange for SP Lucas Giolito, SP Reynaldo Lopez, SP Dane Dunning
  • Acquired C Derek Norris (later released) from Padres in exchange for SP Pedro Avila
  • Acquired RP Enny Romero from Rays in exchange for SP Jeffrey Rosa
  • Acquired SP Kyle McGowin and RP Austin Adams from Angels in exchange for IF Danny Espinosa
  • Acquired RP Jimmy Cordero from Phillies in exchange for PTBNL (RP Mario Sanchez)

Options Exercised

  • Gio Gonzalez, SP: one year, $12MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Matt Albers (released & re-signed), Aaron Barrett, Joey Butler, Tim Collins, Neal Cotts, Grant Green, Jeremy Guthrie, John Lannan, Josh Outman, Joe Nathan (released & re-signed), Jhonatan Solano, Jacob Turner, Vance Worley (released)

Notable Losses

  • Matt Belisle, Espinosa, Giolito, Lopez, Mark Melancon, Wilson Ramos, Ben Revere (non-tendered), Marc Rzepczynski

Nationals Roster; Nationals Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Getting over the hump in the postseason is not a straightforward matter. The Nationals lost a tight NLDS series last year, much as they did in their two prior efforts. For top baseball exec Mike Rizzo and his staff, there was little reason to do more this winter than to keep adding around a talented core at the major league level.

While there was no glaring area that the team failed in last year, there were needs that opened as the offseason got underway. But the organization wasn’t just interested in filling holes; it came into the winter looking to add impact talent.

Thus it was that Washington pushed hard for a deal to land ace lefty Chris Sale from the White Sox, losing out in a classic Winter Meetings bidding war to the Red Sox. While starting pitching was hardly an area of need, plugging Sale into the already formidable staff would’ve added another high-end player. Missing on him, then, did not mean checking down to another rotation option.

Instead, when the Sale pursuit fell through, the club pivoted quickly to outfielder Adam Eaton. With the groundwork already laid with Chicago, a deal came together in short order. Three talented young hurlers — Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning — were shipped out to pick up five years of bargain-rate control over the 28-year-old Eaton. We’ll take a closer look at that swap in the “deal of note” section below.

Eaton will return to center in D.C. He’s best-suited to right, but ought to be at least an average defender in center. Plugging him there meant moving exciting youngster Trea Turner to his native shortstop, which in turn would’ve meant a return to the bench for Danny Espinosa. Instead, the Nats shipped him out to the Angels and went on to re-sign Stephen Drew to function as the primary reserve infielder. Prospect Wilmer Difo is also available should a need arise in the infield.

While pursuing Eaton, the Nationals reportedly also sought to grab veteran closer David Robertson from the Sox. The Nats had already failed to re-sign Mark Melancon — the 2016 deadline acquisition whose departure created an opening in the 9th — and would soon fall short in a bid to draw Kenley Jansen from the Dodgers.

The closer’s role thus became an ongoing saga over the course of the winter, perhaps drawing added attention owing to the team’s recent ups and downs at the position. It seemed at times that a match on Robertson was nearly inevitable, and some reports suggest that ownership nixed a deal. In the end, though, the Nationals held off on a big move, instead holding a competition in camp.

The club ultimately chose Blake Treinen and his power sinker over a roll of the dice on youngster Koda Glover. That seemed underwhelming to some, and constitutes a risk of sorts, particularly given Treinen’s sometimes-spotty command. But he certainly possesses a closer’s arsenal — a mid-to-upper nineties fastball with tons of movement, a wipeout slider, and a change that he can go to when needed — and could round into a quality closer. If not, Glover could earn a shot or yet another mid-season move could follow.

Washington didn’t end up holding pat entirely in the pen. The club made a late move to add Joe Blanton, who was a quality set-up man last year for the Dodgers and cost just $4MM. And Enny Romero, acquired in a minor trade earlier in the winter, represents another huge arm from the left side. He’ll step into the void created when Felipe Rivero was sent out to acquire Melancon, though whether he can harness his power stuff remains to be seen. The Nats also brought in a variety of veteran minor-league free agents to bolster the depth and provide some camp competition.

The other major question entering the winter was what the Nationals would do at the catching position. Wilson Ramos left without compensation — he wasn’t made a qualifying offer — after his breakout season was ended with a second ACL tear. The Nats moved quickly to add Derek Norris, but never seemed fully committed to pairing him with Jose Lobaton and weren’t quite ready to turn things over to light-hitting defensive star Pedro Severino.

At the same time, veteran receiver Matt Wieters languished on the market. Given the longstanding relationship between agent Scott Boras and the Nationals’ ownership group, it came as little surprise when the sides finally lined up. While the price seems fair enough despite Wieters’s underwhelming results of late, there was an argument to be made that the club would have been just as well off sticking with Norris. Instead, he was released, meaning the team paid him about one-sixth of his $4.2MM arb salary and parted with prospect Pedro Avila in order to carry Norris as an insurance policy over the spring.

"AprBrad Mills-USA TODAY Sports” width=”241″ height=”300″ />

There’s not a ton of upside in the Wieters deal, since he can opt out if he has a strong 2017 season and will not be eligible to receive a qualifying offer. But the Nationals obviously felt it was worth the premium to add the respected veteran; time will tell whether that was a wise choice.

The short-term veteran additions carried over to other areas as well. Adam Lind will take over for Clint Robinson as the lefty bench bat and reserve first baseman; he’d be a bargain with his $1.5MM guarantee if he can return to anything approaching his 2013-15 form. And Chris Heisey will return to reprise his role as an extra outfielder and righty pinch-hitting option.

Questions Remaining

As befits their status as a reigning division champ and favorite to return to the postseason in 2017, the Nationals don’t have any glaring holes on the roster. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some areas of potential concern.

Let’s start with the bullpen, which has fans wringing their hands already just a few games in. Treinen has had a few hiccups, as have Glover and others. It’s too soon to reach any judgments, of course, but the ninth inning will be watched closely and the trade deadline could seem far away if at least one member of that duo can’t consistently lock up games late.

Truth be told, the rest of the pen look solid on paper. But Shawn Kelley is being handled with care, especially after departing his last postseason outing with what seemed at the time to be a scary arm issue. Blanton is 36 years old and may have worn down late last year. From the left side, Sammy Solis has had his share of health issues, Romero has yet to show he has the command to pitch in the majors, and one wonders how long Oliver Perez can continue to beguile opposing hitters.

Jeremy Guthrie seemed likely to take a slot in the pen as a long man after making one start, but a disastrous outing led to a quick DFA. He has been replaced by Matt Albers for the time being. In terms of depth, there aren’t many proven commodities waiting at Triple-A, though there are some options. Trevor Gott still hasn’t produced results in D.C. despite his big fastball; other 40-man members include Rafael Martin, Austin Adams, Jimmy Cordero, and Matt Grace, while a few veterans such as Neal Cotts and Joe Nathan are also on hand if there’s a need.

The depth is perhaps of greater concern in the rotation, which looks to be a solid unit 1 through 5. Max Scherzer answered most of the questions about his health — he’s recovering from a finger fracture — with a strong first outing. But Stephen Strasburg remains a long-term health risk after missing time again with a forearm injury late in 2016. Gio Gonzalez is coming off of a down year and remains inconsistent, while Tanner Roark seems a solid starter who’s also a good bet to regress somewhat after a stellar campaign. And Joe Ross — who is in Triple-A to open the year but ought to be called upon soon — has experienced shoulder issues at times.

If any of those pitchers goes down, it’s an open question how the Nats will proceed. Guthrie had seemingly been slated to serve as a swingman, but it’s unclear whether he’ll remain in the organization. The next man up could be A.J. Cole, who was once seen as a top prospect but who has yet to show he can take the final step. Austin Voth has generated quality results in the upper minors, but it’s unclear whether he can do the same in the bigs. The Nats parted with minor-league signee Vance Worley late in camp, so reclamation project Jacob Turner is likely the top non-roster starter remaining.

There’s little doubt of the talent level in the lineup, which features established hitters at just about every position. But Bryce Harper needs to show that 2016 was a blip — he’s off to a promising start, and seems healthy after some strange questions about his shoulder — and Turner will try to show he can sustain his incredible performance from his rookie year. (The latter is now shelved with a hamstring strain, though the hope is it’s not a major issue.) Eaton’s ability to handle center is somewhat in question, though that’s not a huge concern and the team could utilize Michael Taylor or Brian Goodwin at times if there’s a need for more glove. Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy were outstanding last year, but the former has shown some fragility at times and the latter will be looking to sustain levels of production that greatly exceeded his career mean.

For the most part, it’s picking at nits at those positions. The Nats have greater concerns at the three remaining spots on the diamond. Left fielder Jayson Werth is closing in on his 38th birthday and hasn’t hit much in the past two seasons. The same is true of Zimmerman, whose production fell off a cliff (.218/.272/.370) in 2016. Both he and Werth have had their share of injury troubles over the years, and they’ll both need to stay healthy while increasing their output as they age for the team to reach its potential. While Lind is a nice piece as a reserve/platoon first baseman, he’ll be stretched if he’s asked to play the outfield or hit against left-handed pitching. And then there’s the catching position, where Wieters and Jose Lobaton look like a good-enough, but hardly overwhelming unit. Both are potential free agents at season’s end, so there’s plenty of incentive, and Severino is about as good a backup plan as any team has behind the dish.

Deal Of Note

The Nats’ acquisition of Eaton drew its share of negative attention, with many focusing on the fact that Eaton isn’t exactly a tools-laden superstar. But he’s a highly valuable player, particularly given his contract rights, and the deal lines up as a reasonably fair one on paper.

That’s not to say that it doesn’t hurt to lose the arms, of course, though it’s far from clear whether any member of the trio will be an impact major league starter. Giolito had solid numbers in the upper minors last year, but showed less velocity than expected and was hit hard in a brief big league stint. The Nats achieved tremendous value in nabbing him with the 16th pick of the 2012 draft, but seemingly soured on him. Clearly, he was no longer seen as the type of surefire ace that he had been characterized as this time last year.

Lopez came to the Nats with decidedly less fanfare as a low-key international signee, but turned himself into a top-flight prospect who arguably bypassed Giolito. He, too, showed well in his first stints at Double-A and Triple-A, but didn’t quite dominate upon ascending to the bigs. But he averaged 95.8 mph with his fastball in the majors and was trusted with a postseason roster spot. The question with Lopez has always been whether he’d stick in the rotation or turn into a late-inning power arm; that’ll be answered in Chicago at some point in the coming years.

It’d be a mistake to overlook Dunning, who was seen by many as a nice value after being overshadowed as a collegiate pitcher in a talented staff at the University of Florida. The 22-year-old showed well in his first foray into the professional ranks, though he’s a few years away from the big leagues.

Sacrificing those pitchers not only meant losing a lot of future control rights, but also changed the depth calculus for the 2017 season. Giolito and Lopez probably wouldn’t have cracked the Opening Day roster, but both would have been in contention for call-ups at any stage during the year after dipping their toes in the waters in 2016. As noted above, there are at least some questions regarding the Nats’ pitching depth; to be fair, though, the club also enjoys rather lengthy control rights over its existing starters.

Apr 5, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals center fielder Adam Eaton (2) scores from first base on a double by right fielder Bryce Harper against the Miami Marlins during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

So, was it worth it? As ever, that’ll be evaluated over a long period of time, particularly given the fact that Eaton’s value is so wrapped up in his contract. In essence, he’s an established star who’s being paid more like an arb-eligible player. He’s guaranteed just $18.4MM over the next three campaigns and can be controlled for a total of $20MM (with $3MM in total buyouts) for two more years. That brings the possible tab to less than forty million bucks to control Eaton’s age-28 through age-32 campaigns.

Eaton doesn’t hit a lot of long balls and doesn’t swipe a lot of bags; he has landed in the teens in both counting stats in recent years. He walks only at an average rate. But he has been remarkably steady since establishing himself as a full-time player. Eaton has posted .362, .361, and .362 OBPs in his last three years while landing at identical .144 isolated slugging marks and popping 14 long balls apiece in the past two — establishing a new power benchmark after showing little pop previously. And he has been worth between four and five runs a year on the bases in his prior two campaigns, as well.

In a way, the major open question on Eaton is the glove — both in terms of general quality and his function to the Nats. Metrics split on his work in center in 2014 — DRS loved him (+11) while UZR was not a fan (-3.3) — but agreed he struggled there in the ensuing season. Then came a move to right, where Eaton rated as an elite defender — in terms of both his throwing arm and range — by measure of both major defensive ratings in 2016. The difference? In 2015, he rated as a three-to-four win player. Last year, he check in with about six WAR.

Clearly, the Nationals believe he’ll handle center capably enough, since that’s where he’s headed to open his tenure with his new club. But the fact that he has shown such capability in a corner spot also allows some flexibility moving forward. Werth’s contract is up this year, while Harper is slated for free agency after 2018. Importantly, the club managed to hang onto top prospect Victor Robles this winter; he could one day be a superstar in center, with Eaton lining up beside him.

They say you have to give value to get it, and that’s typically the case. Clearly, the Nationals did so here. But given the organization’s slate of quality veterans, it made sense to prioritize the near-term. And adding Eaton not only filled a need, but did so in a way that left the team with plenty of future value and won’t fill up much future payroll space — a heightened concern given the big guarantees made to Scherzer and Strasburg, the still-open question of Harper’s future, and the ongoing MASN television rights fees dispute that has forced the Nats to backload many of their major contracts.

Overview

There’s still a lot to like about the Nats as they try once again to break through with their long window of contention. But the questions never stop coming, and there’s a big one on the horizon with Harper. The team’s decision to make him a stunning arbitration raise hints that the pocketbooks could open up for a player who has been — and may be again — among the game’s best. As things stand, though, time’s a-wastin’ on winning while the phenom is in D.C., and the club will likely be aggressive in filling any needs that arise during the season.

So, how do you think the Nats handled the winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users.)

How would you grade the Nationals' offseason?
B 41.64% (777 votes)
C 31.99% (597 votes)
D 9.86% (184 votes)
A 8.68% (162 votes)
F 7.82% (146 votes)
Total Votes: 1,866

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share Repost Send via email

2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals

17 comments

Inside The Draft Room: The 2005 Red Sox

By Chuck Wasserstrom | April 10, 2017 at 10:38am CDT

Put on a scouting director hat and ask yourself this question: Do you want your team to do poorly so you can have the maximum number of opportunities to select a premium draft pick, or do you want your team to win – knowing all the supposed “top of the line” talent will already have been taken?

The question is purely rhetorical. For the person directing the draft and all the scouts out scouring for talent in the smallest of towns, the ring is the thing.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t win and have fun on the scouting side, too.

In 2004, the Boston Red Sox – down 3 games to 0 in the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees – rallied to win their final eight postseason games in eliminating the Yankees and sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals. In the process, they won their first World Series since 1918.

On paper, if no free agents switched clubs, the Red Sox would have picked 28th overall in the ensuing 2005 amateur draft – with a second pick coming in at No. 58. But baseball isn’t played on paper. After the annual free agent signing frenzy, the world champs lost Orlando Cabrera, Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez, and now – thanks to compensation selections and supplemental picks – found themselves with six draft choices from No. 23 to No. 57.

So … to the victors did go the spoils.

Oh, there’s just one thing. They were about to restock with a first-time scouting director.

– – –

In November 2002, Theo Epstein – just 28 years of age at the time – was named general manager of the Red Sox. Earlier that year, he had joined the organization as the assistant GM after coming over from the San Diego Padres.

During his time in San Diego, Epstein struck up a friendship with Jason McLeod, a former minor league pitcher who began his Padres career as a Community Relations intern in 1994 – before moving over to Stadium Operations that winter and to the Baseball Operations Department in the fall of 1995 (Epstein had joined the team earlier that year). McLeod’s time with the Padres later included three years as a minor league coach, a return to the front office as the assistant director of scouting and player development, and two years as an area scout in Southern California.

Epstein brought McLeod to Boston as an associate scouting director in the fall of 2003, assisting David Chadd. After the Red Sox won the 2004 Fall Classic, Chadd moved on to Detroit to become the Tigers’ vice president of amateur scouting – and McLeod was promoted into the scouting leadership position. Epstein wasn’t concerned about inserting his former Padres cohort into that role despite McLeod’s relative lack of experience in the draft room.

“Jason and I grew up together in the Padres organization,” Epstein said in an email, “so I knew he could really evaluate and was a great leader.

“It was a seamless transition because Jason had worked with us in 2004. The entire organization was focused on the draft with all the picks we had, and Jason did a great job as always leading the department. We had a lot of fun all scouting season and in the draft meetings.”

McLeod acknowledges that he didn’t have a boatload of experience from a draft-day perspective when he took over.

“In ’04, I was instilling and re-doing the processes of it,” McLeod says. “David was absolutely the scouting director; he was pounding it out on the road. But from the front office side of things, we were kind of co-directing that department that year.

“During my time in San Diego, I had sat in on many draft meetings, but I hadn’t been in the director’s seat or calling the shots or instituting processes or things like that until I got to Boston.”

The Red Sox had broken the curse. Now, just a few months later at their January scouting meetings, McLeod was presiding over the group and putting a game plan into place.

“There was a lot of excitement, obviously, coming off the World Series year,” he says. “For those of us in amateur scouting, we were just as excited knowing that we had two first-round picks and three sandwich picks. We felt that we were going to get a couple impact players with the volume of picks that we had. And coming out of the prior summer – after scouting the Cape, scouting the Team USA juniors – we knew that it was going to be a really good draft.

“We told our guys, ‘Let’s get after it and go crush it and find as much impact and upside as we can.’”

– – –

The top tier of the 2005 draft was considered to be very deep, and the results continue to speak for themselves.

Eight of the first 12 selections have appeared in the All-Star Game. Five of the first seven – Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki – have career WAR above 25.0.

The Red Sox knew they had no chance of landing any of those five – or high school outfielders/future all-stars Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce, who went 11-12. But there was still a lot of talent out there to be had. Boston had the No. 23 and No. 26 selections in the first round – along with the Nos. 42, 45 and 47 slots in the supplemental round. The team’s second-round pick was No. 57 overall.

The key was to be prepared for anything and everything. Back in 2005, the draft was conducted via a conference call – and there was very little time between picks.

“At that time, we did a lot of mock drafts,” explains McLeod, who is now the Cubs’ senior vice president of scouting/player development. “We would run a mock draft where different scenarios were happening. I think at that time we maybe had 30 seconds before the next pick. So we ran a lot of simulations in the room. Theo liked to try to set up scenarios where … there were 12 of us in the room, and he’d set up scenarios and go worst case. I’m sitting there watching the board, and he’d set it up and say, ‘Now this guy and that guy are gone. Where are you going here?’ And he put you on a timeclock. We probably did that about five or six different times where we ran those simulations.

“We felt good about the information that we had. We felt good about the performance metrics we were looking at, and about how we had the board stacked. So at that point, let’s run the simulations. ‘Now, he’s gone. Now these two guys are gone.’ We also ran some where we knew there would be no way the board would fall that way, but if it all blew up, ‘Now where are you going? Why are you doing that?’ So you do those things prior to draft day. You trust the process and you trust the preparation.

“At the same time, just like every draft year … as the pick is getting close, there is some anxiety and anticipation that you feel. But again, you just trust your process. You do all the work to be prepared for every situation.”

– – –

By draft day, the Red Sox had narrowed their focus to three collegians for the No. 23 selection – Oregon State outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, Arizona outfielder Trevor Crowe and Texas A&M shortstop Cliff Pennington.

“We spent so much time talking about those three players in particular, because we were really hopeful that one of them got to us,” McLeod said. “We spent an inordinate amount of time in the weeks leading up to the draft meetings on them. We kept stacking them and stacking them and talking about their strengths and weaknesses.

Jacoby Ellsbury | Ron Vesely/Getty Images

“The funny thing about Jacoby … that year, he had such a great year, and I saw four or five of his games – and he probably had his worst games when I was there. I actually took Theo to a game at the University of Washington when the Red Sox were in Seattle. Of course, Jacoby’s first two at-bats, he was 0-for-2 – and Theo was like, ‘Jason, you’re not allowed to watch his next at-bat. You’re bad luck. Please, turn around or something.’ So I literally turned around and heard the crack of the bat; I turned back and the ball was in the gap. Theo and I are standing down the third-base line, and I remember watching this kid round second turning on the afterburners as he’s coming into third. It was just something. You watch a lot of games and see a lot of fast guys, but then you see stuff that makes you say ‘Wow.’ That was one of those moments, just watching this guy fly around the bases. So I knew I wasn’t totally bad luck. I was in the ballpark. I didn’t see the contact, but at least I heard it.

“I literally saw him go 2-for-15 in a year that he hit over .400 and had an on-base of almost .500. But our scouts were so convicted on him – from the area guy (John Booher) to the regional guy (West Coast cross-checker Fred Peterson) to our national cross-checker (Dave Finley). They were all like, ‘This is our guy. This is it.’

“He was already doing the things that we were looking for … the ability to get on base … the fact that he was an outstanding athlete who was going to play in center field … he had a low K (strikeout) rate. My question was just going to be the strength. I remember seeing him in the Cape, and I was worried a little bit about how the ball was going to come off the bat.

“But there’s a really good story from that year. Oregon State was down at the University of San Diego, and it was one of the only days in the history of the University of San Diego that they actually had a rainout. San Diego’s coach, Rich Hill – who we had a really good relationship with – was gracious enough to let us work out Jacoby. So a couple of our scouts got to see him hit in the cage. Then they took him up to the Jenny Craig Pavilion, and there’s Jacoby Ellsbury throwing down gorilla dunks for our scouts – showing them his explosiveness and his athleticism. I wasn’t at that workout, but our cross-checker just called me and was blown away with the explosiveness in Jacoby’s body. He was like, ‘You will not believe what Jacoby just did.’

“If you looked at his performance, all the makeup we got on him, the fact that we felt that he was going to be ultra-disruptive on the bases … we thought he was going to be a shutdown center fielder. All of that aligned with someone that we absolutely wanted to bring into the organization. That’s why we liked Pennington. That’s why we liked Crowe. They were all these dynamic athletes that played in the middle of the field.”

Crowe went No. 14 to Cleveland. Pennington was chosen at No. 21 by Oakland. The Marlins, drafting after the Athletics and before the Red Sox, selected high school second baseman Aaron Thompson – and Ellsbury was Boston-bound.

McLeod literally had about 30 seconds to breathe. Houston was on the clock (selecting Brian Bogusevic), then came Minnesota (Matt Garza). It was now time to make another decision.

Read more

– – –

In the days and weeks leading up to the draft, there had been a lot of discussion in the Red Sox draft room – oftentimes heated – about hard-throwing Angelina College right-hander Clay Buchholz.

“Clay was someone I had to have,” McLeod says. “I was just in love with the ability and the athleticism.”

As has been documented, Buchholz was pitching for a community college team in Lufkin, Texas, for a reason.

“It’s out there … when he was at McNeese State, he and his friend did a stupid thing. They broke into a school and stole some computers from a computer lab,” McLeod recalls. “Obviously, we had to dig deep into (A) what happened here and (B) is this something that’s going to be problematic going forward.

Clay Buchholz | Rich Gagnon/Getty Images

“Clay was very upfront when we talked to him about it. Jimmy Robinson, the area scout, did a tremendous job on the background and getting to the bottom of that story – and getting to know the player himself. I met with Clay in Texas. Theo and I had a big discussion with him in Boston at our pre-draft workout. We had a long conversation with him out in the bullpen during batting practice one day and talked about it. ‘What’s important to you? How do you want to be remembered by your family when you’re done playing this game?’ We hit him with some pretty personal questions.

“Let’s put it this way … I made it very evident that he was someone I had to have in that draft. There were some arguments in there. There was a time when Theo definitely challenged my conviction on the player, and we had a pretty heated debate about it in the room. Theo, in so many words, said ‘Jase, this is your first year running a draft as a scouting director solo. Are you going to put your name on this guy?’ I stood up and said, ‘Yes, I am.’

“At the end of the day, we were obviously aware of his past. It wasn’t ideal, but I personally felt confident enough to push for him in the first round. I can tell you we didn’t make his selection with any ‘Hold your breath, let’s hope this kid doesn’t get into trouble’ thoughts. We genuinely felt like he made a mistake and atoned for it.”

Ultimately, putting a first-round tag on Buchholz was a little too rich for Boston’s collective taste to select him at No. 26. That – and the fact that a reliever the team thought should have gone off the board much earlier was sliding.

St. John’s University closer Craig Hansen had dominated Big East Conference competition that spring, striking out 85 batters in 64 1/3 innings and recording 14 saves. McLeod thought a team that wanted a quick-to-the-majors reliever that could potentially pitch in the back end of games relatively soon would have jumped on him.

“We didn’t think Hansen was going to be there, because coming off the Cape that prior summer and going into the year, he was just so dominant,” McLeod said. “He wasn’t a priority type coverage guy for us, because we thought somebody else would grab him before pick 23.”

While Hansen was available, he was not an option for the Red Sox at No. 23; that pick was earmarked for a college hitter. The last-second conversation at No. 26 reverted to Buchholz.

“The bigger discussion for me on the Hansen selection was … we had done a lot of work on Buchholz, and I thought the Dodgers were going to take him at 40,” McLeod says. “I knew Logan White liked him. I knew he was there to see his last start. My fear was that we were going to miss him. I just had to leave that draft with Buchholz. He was the gut-feel guy who I really wanted.

“So there were some discussions about him at 26. That would have been a stretch for the rest of the room and for a lot of our guys, but that’s just how much conviction I had in Clay’s ability. And then the conversation obviously went back to Hansen – a big, college, ‘get there quick’ guy. We knew what he was and we knew he had power stuff. So the decision was made to take Craig. We took him – and he got to the big leagues later that year.”

Although he did pitch in four games for Boston that summer, Hansen struggled as a major leaguer, seeing action in 95 games for the Red Sox and Pirates. He saw his last minor league action in 2012. “Unfortunately for us and for Craig, he didn’t have the career that we all thought he would,” says McLeod. (Boston did still get some value from that selection, as Hansen was part of a three-team blockbuster that netted outfielder Jason Bay, who had one and a half outstanding seasons with the Sox.)

With Hansen on board, all McLeod could do was wait impatiently for Los Angeles to make its supplemental round selection.

“I sat there and held my breath,” he remembers fondly. “I know now, having talked to other teams over the years, it was basically us and the Dodgers that were in on Clay. Logan White is a good friend – and obviously his track record is pretty stellar with the draft, and we’ve had fun talking about Clay over the years. But we sent one cross-checker to this tournament in south Texas, and I think it was the opening day of the college conference tournaments – and Logan happened to be there. It says a lot when the scouting director, instead of being at the SEC tourney or day one of the Big 12, is seeing a junior college guy down in Nowhere, Texas.

“When the Dodgers were about to announce their pick, I literally was like, ‘They’re going to take Buchholz. They’re going to take Buchholz’ (laughing). And then they took Luke Hochevar.”

After Atlanta drafted high school left-hander Beau Jones at No. 41, McLeod got his guy.

“There was a big exhale … relief. Anyone who worked with me at the time would echo the sentiment,” he says. “As a scouting director, he was the guy I had to have in that draft.”

Fast forward to two years later, and Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second major league start.

Rewind to draft day, and McLeod had about 60 seconds until his next pick at No. 45.

“We had stacked the board with some college hitters that we liked, so I was already feeling confident about our next pick,” recalls McLeod. “There were a few guys we really liked: Jed Lowrie (Stanford) … Stephen Head, a kid from Ole Miss … Chase Headley (Tennessee). I knew we were getting one of those guys.”

Sure enough, the Cardinals and Marlins picked pitchers.

“Jed Lowrie fell right into our laps – a guy who played the middle of the field with that kind of performance in college. Nowadays, he’d never get to No. 45. For us, it was a no-brainer. This kid was coming off a sophomore year where he almost won the Triple Crown in the Pac 10. He had a little bit of a down junior year, which allowed him to slide down into that selection for us.”

Then, two picks later, the Red Sox went the prep route, selecting Michael Bowden – a pitcher out of Waubonsie Valley High School in Aurora, Ill.

“Michael Bowden was a kid that we spent a lot of time with,” McLeod says. “He was one of those guys we got a lot of looks at. Our area scout was ultra-convinced on the makeup of the kid. We got to know him pretty well … the way he competed … blue collar … all of that.

“We really thought we got a mid-rotation guy with that selection. And the way his career started, we were really pumped. He was a workhorse, he threw a ton of strikes, and he had great stuff. After his first couple of years, we were like, ‘Wow, we got a really good pick here.’ In 2008 at Double-A, he sat on a low 2.30 ERA with a 25 percent punch rate. We thought this guy was going to sit in the middle of our rotation for a long time. He had a decent Triple-A year when we moved him up, he got to the big leagues, but he kind of plateaued out. He never had the career that we thought he would.”

Bowden saw action in parts of six big league seasons with the Red Sox and Cubs, appearing in 103 games from 2008-2013.

The flurry of activity concluded a little while later with Boston’s second-round pick – the No. 57 overall selection. And the rationale behind the player chosen – Jonathan Egan, a catcher out of Cross Creek (Ga.) High School – still bothers McLeod.

“I think every scouting director … if you would change things and do them over, we all would. This is one that sticks out with me,” McLeod admits. “We liked Jon Egan quite a bit. I was shooting for upside. We thought this kid had tremendous power. We thought he’d be able to catch. And when you went to watch him, it was a really beautiful swing.

“But what I regret here is that there was another college player sitting there right in our lap. There was a lot of discussion in the room that we should consider him, but my thought process was, ‘We just took Jed Lowrie. That was the safe college guy who performed. Let’s really shoot for some upside here.’ So we ended up passing on Chase Headley and took Egan. That’s one of those that I still to this day look back at. My reasoning did not go with the process. I was shooting for upside when we had Headley sitting right there for us on top of our board.”

Egan played three minor league seasons, peaking at Class-A Greenville in the South Atlantic League. Headley, who went to the Padres at No. 66, entered this year having been a major league starting third baseman since 2008.

While Headley was a miss for McLeod, Pedro Alvarez was the one who got away. A 14th-round pick out of Horace Mann High School in New York, Alvarez opted to bypass the Red Sox’s offer and go to Vanderbilt – and later was the second overall pick in the 2008 draft (by Pittsburgh).

“Missing out on him, we didn’t like that taste – especially seeing what he became,” McLeod says of Alvarez – who entered this year with 153 homers during his seven-year big league career. “It made us want to be even more aggressive going forward in trying to sign those types of players.

“We really loved the kid’s power. We loved the bat speed. He came to our workout that year and really put on a show. We made a serious run at him. I was on the phone a lot with the kid, trying to get him signed.

“Under the old system, the day they show up for class, they’re done. So I’m on the phone with him that morning, and I made a significant offer. Remember, this was the 14th round, and we already had spent a ton of money on the guys at the top. We had our last conversation, and he said, ‘Sorry, Mr. McLeod, I’m here at school now – and I’m getting ready to go to class.’ So we don’t sign him.”

McLeod later found out that Derek Johnson – who was Vanderbilt’s pitching coach at the time and now the Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching coach – was standing next to Alvarez when the prized freshman was having his final conversation with the Red Sox. Johnson was the Cubs’ minor league pitching coordinator in 2013-2015, and his boss was McLeod.

“We were swapping stories about Pedro Alvarez after (Johnson) joined the Cubs, and he says to me, ‘I walked him to class to make sure he got there and that no Red Sox employees were jumping out of the bushes trying to sign him.’”

Looking back at his first draft, McLeod talked about the need to be aggressive and wanting players who could provide impact and upside.

“We knew having all those picks early … we had the ability to diversify the portfolio, so to speak, where you could take some high-impact riskier high school kids, college performers that you felt really good about with athletic upside, and a junior college guy like Clay Buchholz,” McLeod says.

“As history has borne out, it’s probably one of the best drafts of all-time. I’m not talking about the Red Sox. That ’05 draft class was ridiculous in the first round.”

– – –

Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.

Share Repost Send via email

Boston Red Sox Inside The Draft Room MLBTR Originals

15 comments

MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | April 9, 2017 at 9:02am CDT

Here is this week’s original content from MLB Trade Rumors’ writing staff and contributors…

  • MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom looks back at the White Sox 1998 draft with former Sox scouting director Duane Shaffer.  While Chicago’s first four picks from that draft (Kip Wells, Aaron Rowand, Gary Majewski, Josh Fogg) went on to enjoy lengthy big league careers, the Sox 1998 draft class was a rare example of a team striking gold with a 38th-round pick — longtime White Sox rotation staple Mark Buehrle.  “The level of satisfaction with this draft is tremendous.  When you’re right on the top end of your draft, that’s basically what you get paid for.  You have to be right on those guys,” Shaffer said. “When you get a guy like Mark Buehrle down in the draft – he makes that draft that much better.”
  • Tim Dillard (a.k.a. @DimTillard) takes us inside the clubhouse of the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in his latest Inner Monologue , covering everything from Tim Tebow and vanity plate etiquette to 50 Cent and on-field wedding proposals.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series continued with Steve Adams examining the Royals, Connor Byrne looking at the Mariners, Charlie Wilmoth covering the Angels, and Jeff Todd breaking down the Rockies’ and Phillies’ winter moves.
Share Repost Send via email

MLBTR Originals

1 comment

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Clubhouse Edition

By Tim Dillard | April 8, 2017 at 4:35pm CDT

It’s 11:30am on Saturday, April 8th, 2017.  My name is Tim Dillard.  Two days ago, I started my 15th season in professional baseball.  And even though I’m SUPER underqualified, I’ve journaled my Inner Monologue in three other posts for MLB Trade Rumors (Part 1) (Part 2) (Opening Day).

11:34am  I’m currently at the ballpark in Triple-A Colorado Springs, and have relief pitcher stretch at 1:00pm.  But until then, I’ve decided to jot down some thoughts.

11:36am  The multiple clubhouse TVs are showing baseball games while the clubhouse speakers are pumping out rapper 50 Cent’s music playlist.  In fact, he just told Shawty that it’s his birthday.  Congrats Shawty!

11:37am  One of the TVs has Tim Tebow coverage … looks like congratulations are in order again!  It appears Tebow hit a two-run home run the other day in his first-ever professional minor league at bat!  WOW!  Watching the replay of his post-game SportsCenter interview, reminds me of the two-run home run I hit last year in my first minor league at bat of the season.  Though … his post-game SportsCenter interview ran a bit longer than mine did.

11:43am  Okay, I was wrong — one TV has golf on it.  The Masters is on, I’m being told.  I’m also being told that I look like the homeless caddy from Happy Gilmore.  Must be this mesmerizing BEARD I’m parading around.

11:45am  Every year I’m impressed how versatile and knowledgable baseball players really are!  Right now golf advice is running rampant.  But next week, hockey sticks and body checking will start creeping into the locker room.  And after that usually comes overly-giant hats and jockey evaluating in honor of the Kentucky Derby.

11:52am  And whenever something is being thrown away in the clubhouse, you’ll always hear a “Jordan!” or “Kobe!” … or maybe it’s “Curry!” now.  Players talk basketball the entire baseball season … probably ’cause the NBA Playoffs last five months.

11:53am  But every four years, I daresay the FIFA World Cup takes over everything!  Complete with jerseys, reenactments, and multiple soccer balls!  And I bet there’s a spike in the sale of soccer cleats as well!

11:55am  FIFA is a big deal because a baseball clubhouse is home to so many backgrounds and nationalities.  It’s just a beautiful melting pot of pride and awesome!

11:57am  50 Cent is still at it … “I love you like a fat kid love cake.”  Probably my favorite 50 Cent lyric!

12:01pm  Remember a few years ago when 50 Cent threw out the ceremonial first-pitch at a Mets game?  And it was just the worst first pitch ever?  And everybody was making fun of him?  I didn’t … I’ve thrown pitches that bad before, and I’ve done it without being shot nine times.

12:04pm  The ceremonial first pitch in baseball dates back over a hundred years! (At least I think — Google if you care enough.)  What a special tradition, though!  I’ve witnessed hundreds over my career.  In fact, I was actually going to propose to my wife during a ceremonial first pitch!

12:10pm  I was pitching for the Class A+ Brevard County Manatees in 2005, and decided to propose at one of our games!  My plan was to get stadium management to trick my now-wife into throwing the first pitch, and I was going to disguise myself as the catcher.  So after catching her throw, I was going to run out to the mound to give the ball back.  But then drop to a knee, remove my catcher’s mask, and whip out the ring!

12:16pm  Now, I know what you’re thinking… “WHAT AN AWESOME IDEA!” right?  Well, about a week before the plan was to be executed, my now-wife and I see a sports proposal on TV.  Then she turns to me and nonchalantly says, “If you ever tried something like that, I’d say no.”

12:19pm  Okay so I’m not the brightest tool in the drawer, but kinda got the feeling an on-field proposal could be a bad idea.  “Now I know, and knowing is half the battle.” -G.I. Joe

12:23pm  But I have learned a lot over my many years in baseball.  Simple things.  For instance: don’t put a “BRU CRU” vanity plate on your car just because you’re in the Milwaukee Brewers organization.  And don’t get a tattoo of a flaming baseball on your arm, just in case you stop throwing hard one day. (I’ll admit I’ve done one of these.)

12:28pm  Being around baseball for a long time also has its perks.  Like: no matter what clubhouse I’m in … my phone already has the password, and automatically connects to the wi-fi.  And of course, infinite access to peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.

12:33pm  Thanks to a generous teammate sitting next to me, I can safely say that the local gas station’s Rice Krispy treats are on point!

12:34pm  Clubhouse manager is walking around delivering the daily packages.  I don’t get a lot of mail these days.  But all the young prospects get boxes everyday!  Stuff like spikes, batting gloves, shower shoes, portable chargers, Bruce Lee shirts, candy, disco ball, camo tights, Quench Gum, cribbage board, Aerobies.

12:36pm  Hey I actually did get mail!  Crap.  It’s from my bank.  Says my credit card was compromised again and sent me a new card. Looks like they got suspicious from purchases made last week in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Colorado… and one online order for exotic beard oil.

12:38pm  CRAP!  I need to hurry up.  Don’t want to be late for stretch!

12:38pm  Come to think of it, when I was a kid, my brothers and I weren’t allowed to use the word crap.  It was on the bad word list.  My mom would wash our mouths out with soap if we let the crap word fly.  I still have a hard time using Dial soap.

12:41pm  Ah yes, the clubhouse… so full of life and sound.  Like a cross between Chuck E. Cheese and a Play It Again Sports.

To Be Concluded…

Share Repost Send via email

MLBTR Originals Player's Perspective Tim Dillard

10 comments

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

By Steve Adams | April 7, 2017 at 8:13pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Royals’ 2016-17 offseason will, sadly, always be remembered for the stunning, untimely death of one of their most recognizable young talents: 25-year-old right-hander Yordano Ventura. In the wake of that tragedy, the Kansas City front office made several late additions to a now-retooled roster that will dedicate the 2017 season to the memory of a friend and teammate who was taken from the world far too soon.

Major League Signings

  • Jason Hammel, RHP: Two years, $16MM (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: Two years, $12MM (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Travis Wood, LHP: Two years, $12MM (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Total spend: $40MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Seth Maness, Peter Moylan (re-signed), Bobby Parnell, Brandon League, Chris Withrow, Al Alburquerque, Brooks Conrad, Jonathan Sanchez, Garin Cecchini, Brayan Pena

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired OF/DH Jorge Soler from the Cubs in exchange for RP Wade Davis
  • Acquired RHP Nate Karns from the Mariners in exchange for OF Jarrod Dyson
  • Acquired OF Peter O’Brien from the D-backs in exchange for minor league RHP Sam Lewis
  • Acquired minor league OF Donnie Dewees from the Cubs in exchange for minor league RHP Alec Mills
  • Acquired minor league RHP Jared Ruxer from the Angels in exchange for RHP Brooks Pounders

Extensions

  • Danny Duffy, SP: Five years, $65MM

Notable Losses

  • Wade Davis, Jarrod Dyson, Kendrys Morales, Edinson Volquez, Luke Hochevar, Kris Medlen, Dillon Gee, Chien-Ming Wang

Royals Depth Chart; Royals Payroll Info

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, all eyes were on a host of veteran Royals slated to hit free agency following the 2017 season. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar and Jarrod Dyson all finished up the 2016 campaign knowing that it was possibly the last time they’d all be together as teammates. General manager Dayton Moore spoke candidly early in the offseason and suggested that some payroll regression was likely in store, and Royals fans braced for the potential departures among the ranks of the team’s longstanding core.

And indeed, Moore subtracted some pieces, but perhaps not as many as Royals fans might’ve feared. Davis and Dyson found new homes following trades that sent them to the Cubs and Mariners, respectively. While Moore likely took no pleasure in parting with players who cemented themselves as Major Leaguers during their time with the Royals, the GM and his lieutenants were able to acquire a pair of controllable pieces in each one-for-one swap.

Jorge Soler

Davis netted former uber-prospect Jorge Soler, who has yet to break out but is still just 25 years of age. And Dyson’s blend of baserunning/defensive wizardry was right up Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto’s alley, prompting the Mariners to trade right-hander Nate Karns to Kansas City in exchange for one highly affordable year of Dyson. Though neither of the acquired assets has solidified himself as a big league contributor, each comes with four years of club control remaining. Acquiring eight years of MLB-ready talent, albeit unproven talent, in exchange for two players entering their contract years was a nice bit of work for the Kansas City front office (especially considering the trades also lowered the Royals’ 2017 payroll).

Another of those core Royals also resolved some of the uncertainty surrounding his status beyond the 2017 campaign, but Duffy did so in a drastically different manner when he signed a five-year extension that’ll guarantee him $65MM (more on that later). Now locked in as the clear top starter in the K.C. rotation, Duffy will be tasked with leading a new-look pitching staff this season.

In Karns, Jason Hammel and Travis Wood, Moore and his staff acquired a trio of arms to help round out the rotation. In the cases of Hammel and Wood, they did so by waiting out a surprisingly weak market to acquire both players at relatively bargain rates. Hammel’s $16MM price tag is especially surprising. Many pundits (we at MLBTR included) pegged him for a three-year deal in a thin market for starters after the Cubs made the then-curious decision to buy out his seemingly reasonable $12MM option for the 2017 season.

Wood spent the winter seeking an opportunity to reestablish himself as a starter, and but he’ll initially work out of the ’pen after Hammel and Karns claimed rotation spots behind Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Jason Vargas. That group doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing lineups, but each can be at least a serviceable arm, and the Royals’ large park and quality defense should compensate for some of the quintet’s shortcomings.

On the position-player side of the equation, the Royals didn’t have an overwhelming amount of work to do. Trading Dyson and watching Kendrys Morales depart created a need for a few additions, but the acquisition of Soler and Peter O’Brien in trades and the late signing of veteran Brandon Moss could well cover those departures. The trio of new additions won’t match the defensive excellence of Dyson in the outfield, but that group brings more to the table offensively.

Read more for further analysis …

Read more

Questions Remaining

While the Royals resolved the status of Dyson, Davis and Duffy, it’s still not clear what the future holds for longtime cornerstones Cain, Moustakas, Hosmer and Escobar. Young Raul Mondesi Jr. is on hand as a potential replacement for Escobar come 2018, and he’ll work as the team’s second baseman to open the season after beating out Christian Colon, Whit Merrifield and Cheslor Cuthbert for that job. Cuthbert could potentially take over for Moustakas next year, though his relegation to a reserve role and lack of minor league options isn’t ideal for a still-developing player. Replacements for Hosmer and Cain are not as readily apparent, and the prospects of an extension for either don’t appear encouraging at this time.

If the Royals are unexpectedly in control of the division at the non-waiver trade deadline, then the team may simply carry on with all four and issue qualifying offers to those who merit such a move at season’s end. However, if the Royals are out of contention or merely hovering in the Wild Card race, the front office will likely be forced to navigate the uncomfortable waters of marketing some of the team’s longtime stars on the trade market. The new collective bargaining agreement greatly reduced the level of compensation which teams receive for placing qualifying offers on their free agents, so clubs with potentially movable assets figure to be more motivated than ever to pull the trigger on summer trades in order to maximize their returns.

Turning to the pitching staff, the Royals certainly possess the depth to get through a Major League season, but its not clear if they have enough talent to actually compete. Duffy’s 2016 success was impressive, and if he can avoid wearing down late in the year (as he did last season), then he could very well be a legitimate front-line starter.

Beyond Duffy, however, the Royals’ rotation consists mostly of back-end options. Ian Kennedy can dominate at times due to his ability to miss bats, but he’s too homer-prone to sustain those streaks over a full season. Hammel has faded down the stretch in each of the past two years and has never reached 180 innings in a season. Wood hasn’t been a starter since 2014 and hasn’t enjoyed success in that role since the year prior. Vargas has always been a fourth starter and will be in his first full year back from 2015 Tommy John surgery. Karns has shown flashes of potential but never spent a full year in a rotation. Chris Young’s ERA soared north of 6.00 last season.

Of course, the Royals didn’t have a powerhouse rotation in 2014 or 2015 when they appeared in consecutive World Series, but those teams possessed overwhelming bullpens that the 2017 club lacks.

The departure of Davis thrusts excellent righty Kelvin Herrera into the spotlight of the ninth inning in Kansas City. Once the primary seventh-inning option for manager Ned Yost behind Greg Holland and Wade Davis, Herrera has graduated from understudy to the lead role in the Kansas City relief corps. Joakim Soria, who had one of the worst years of his career in 2016, will pair with sophomore Matt Strahm as the primary bridges to Herrera, but even Strahm lacks experience (and has struggled greatly in his first couple of appearances).

Kansas City took a half-measure to address the lack of defined bullpen roles and loaded up on minor league deals for veteran relievers. Peter Moylan is back in the fold in hopes of repeating his 2016 success. Seth Maness will hope to return to the Majors after undergoing an experimental “primary repair” ligament operation that, if successful, could prove to be an abridged alternative to Tommy John surgery. Brandon League, Bobby Parnell, Al Alburquerque and Chris Withrow were all in camp on minors deals, though League has since been cut loose.

Moylan, Young, Mike Minor (who didn’t pitch in the Majors last year), and Wood have begun the year in the relief mix along with Herrera, Soria and Strahm. Depth options include the aforementioned Parnell, Alburquerque and Withrow, plus 40-man options like Scott Alexander, Andrew Edwards and Kevin McCarthy. Filling one or even two spots from that mix could be doable with a strong front five in the bullpen, but the Royals need production from four of those arms. That simply doesn’t seem like a plan for success.

Deal of Note

Once touted as one of the game’s best pitching prospects, Danny Duffy saw his career slowed by 2013 Tommy John surgery. Upon returning to the Royals, he was shuttled back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen as the team sought to determine his best role.

Danny Duffy

After opening the 2016 campaign in the ’pen, Duffy moved back into the rotation in mid-May, and the results were staggering. From May 15 through Aug. 21, Duffy transformed into a buzzsaw that cut down opposing lineups with elite marks in terms of both strikeouts and control. In 120 2/3 innings, he pitched to a stellar 2.61 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 33.8 percent ground-ball rate. His extreme fly-ball tendencies might not fit perfectly in some parks, but it’s hardly an issue at the spacious Kaufman Stadium. Duffy faded in his final seven appearances (6.37 ERA in 41 innings), but that’s not entirely surprising for a pitcher that’d never thrown even 150 innings in a season.

That dominant stretch, though, left little doubt about his role in the Royals’ minds, and they rewarded him with a five-year deal that’ll guarantee Duffy $65MM. Following the contract’s signing, Duffy spoke bluntly about his desire to remain with the Royals and seemingly acknowledged that he may have left quite a bit of money on the table. Indeed, had Duffy managed to stretch out last year’s three-month run of excellence over a full season, he’d have had a legitimate case for a $100MM contract as a very young free agent starter, entering his age-29 season.

Of course, it’s difficult to knock any player for securing their first massive MLB payday, let alone one that has already undergone Tommy John surgery and has never reached 180 innings in a single season. Duffy’s decision to remain in a comfortable setting that he’s come to consider home is understandable from a human perspective, but the contract looks quite favorable for the Royals at present. Duffy doesn’t need to pitch like an ace to justify that level of payment; if he settles in even as a league-average starter, the Royals will be getting their money’s worth — and then some. If his performance does take another step forward, though, Kansas City could find itself in possession of one of the game’s more appealing contracts — an impressive feat considering it was signed just nine months before the recipient was set to hit the open market.

And as a bonus for the Royals, the contract’s backloaded nature actually allowed them to lower the 2017 payroll by paying Duffy less than he’d have earned via arbitration in the coming season. For a club that is about to see an enormous amount of money come off the books at the end of the 2017 season, that was a nice bit of accounting work.

Overview

The 2017 season is very likely the last one that the core of players who resurrected baseball in Kansas City will spend together. The Royals are underdogs in their division, though the same was arguably true of them in both 2014 and 2015. Pitching questions abound, but even if the team can’t overtake the Indians for the AL Central crown, there’s enough talent on the club that a Wild Card berth can’t be ruled out. Royals fans should be prepared for change, though, as the 2018 club is all but certain to look quite a bit different than the group that took the field in Minneapolis on Opening Day this year.

MLBTR readers can weigh in with their own thoughts on Kansas City’s offseason in the following poll and in the comments below (link to poll for mobile app users)…

How would you grade the Royals' offseason?
B 42.44% (264 votes)
C 34.24% (213 votes)
D 10.45% (65 votes)
A 8.68% (54 votes)
F 4.18% (26 votes)
Total Votes: 622

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share Repost Send via email

2016-17 Offseason In Review Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals

5 comments

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

By charliewilmoth | April 4, 2017 at 1:06pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Mike Trout continues to lead a team in transition as the Angels attempt to regroup following an injury-marred 2016 campaign.

Major League Signings

  • Luis Valbuena, 3B: two years, $15MM plus mutual option for 2019
  • Jesse Chavez, RHP: one year, $5.75MM plus incentives
  • Ben Revere, OF: one year, $4MM plus incentives
  • Andrew Bailey, RHP (re-signed): one year, $1M plus incentives
  • Total spend: $25.75MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired OF Cameron Maybin from Tigers for RHP Victor Alcantara
  • Acquired 2B Danny Espinosa from Nationals for RHP Austin Adams and RHP Kyle McGowin
  • Acquired C Martin Maldonado and RHP Drew Gagnon for C Jett Bandy
  • Acquired RHP Austin Adams from Indians for cash (this player is a different right-handed pitcher named Austin Adams than the one the Angels dealt in the Espinosa trade)
  • Acquired RHP Brooks Pounders from Royals for RHP Jared Ruxer
  • Claimed RHP Kirby Yates from Yankees (later designated for assignment)
  • Claimed RHP Blake Parker from Yankees; the Angels later lost Parker on waivers to the Brewers, but claimed him again later in the offseason and then outrighted him
  • Claimed RHP Abel De Los Santos from Reds (later outrighted)
  • Claimed RHP Vicente Campos from Diamondbacks
  • Claimed SS Nolan Fontana from Astros
  • Lost C Juan Graterol on waivers to Reds; the Angels later claimed Graterol from the Diamondbacks, but ultimately lost him on waivers to the Blue Jays
  • Lost RHP Ashur Tolliver on waivers to Astros
  • Acquired RHP Justin Haley in the Rule 5 Draft and traded him to the Padres for cash

Notable Minor League Signings

Yusmeiro Petit, Bud Norris, John Lamb, Dustin Ackley, Eric Young Jr., Ryan LaMarre, Tony Sanchez

Extensions

  • Kole Calhoun, OF: three years, $26MM plus club option for 2020

Contract Options

  • Yunel Escobar, IF: $7MM or $1M buyout (exercised)

Notable Losses

Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Bandy, Geovany Soto, Jhoulys Chacin, Johnny Giavotella, Gregorio Petit, Rafael Ortega, Tim Lincecum, Ji-Man Choi, A.J. Achter

Needs Addressed

In his second offseason with the Angels, GM Billy Eppler completed transactions at a furious pace. Many of them were much ado about little, as you might infer from the list above — the series of moves involving Blake Parker and Juan Graterol are telling, as is the fact that Eppler made trades involving two separate pitchers named Austin Adams. Gone were the Albert Pujols-type big splashes that defined previous Angels offseasons, despite the salary-clearing departures this winter of former star pitchers C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver. That isn’t to say, though, that Eppler didn’t take serious steps to improve his club. It’s more that his team had so many glaring holes that he had to make a number of small moves rather than one or two big ones.

The Angels’ first big offseason transaction helped define how the rest of their winter would go. The team entered the offseason needing to upgrade in their rotation and outfield, and at catcher and second base. Of those positions, the one that boasted the most free-agent talent was outfield, where Yoenis Cespedes, Dexter Fowler, Jose Bautista, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick, Carlos Gomez, Michael Saunders and many others were available.

Cameron MaybinRather than pursue any of those players, the Angels quickly traded for Cameron Maybin from the Tigers. The cost was minimal — the Angels gave up only Victor Alcantara, a hard-throwing but raw righty who probably profiles as a reliever in the long term.

Maybin looks like a bargain at the price of his $9MM option, which the Angels immediately exercised after trading for him — he batted .315/.383/.418 in 2016, a slash line that would fit well in just about any lineup. Beneath the surface, though, lies a .383 BABIP, a number that seems virtually certain to fall dramatically in 2017. Also, Maybin’s center field defense has declined as he’s aged. Defensively, he should be fine in left, where the Angels plan to use him, but his ground-ball-heavy offensive game seems unlikely to produce the power typically associated with that position.

The Angels also added Ben Revere, who provides Maybin with a left-handed complement and the Angels with some speed off the bench. Revere, alas, batted .217/.260/.300 for the Nationals last year. Revere’s own .234 BABIP looks ripe for positive regression, particularly as he’s recovered from an oblique injury that hindered him in 2016. Revere is also just 28 and would appear to be a useful bench player at the very least, particularly given his baserunning ability.

Revere has even less power than Maybin, though, and it’s hard to shake the impression the Angels missed an opportunity to add a middle-of-the-lineup bat, particularly given the way the offseason unfolded. They might well have been able to land a more potentially impactful player, or perhaps even two — Eric Thames, Steve Pearce, Matt Joyce and Saunders all come to mind — had they not acted so quickly to add Maybin, who ZiPS and Steamer both project will produce less than a win above replacement this year. There’s a bit of 20/20 hindsight involved in that assessment, but perhaps it should have been clear from the beginning there was plenty of talent available.

The Angels also acted decisively to upgrade their infield, seemingly killing one bird with two stones by acquiring both Danny Espinosa and Luis Valbuena. The Angels pounced after the Nationals’ acquisition of Adam Eaton relegated Espinosa to a bench role, and Espinosa subsequently expressed unhappiness with the situation. The Angels sent two fringe pitching prospects to Washington, and settled with Espinosa for $5.425MM for his final season before he becomes eligible for free agency. Espinosa’s offensive profile is unusual for a middle infielder — he hit 24 home runs last season, but struck out 29% of the time, leading to a .209 batting average that doesn’t figure to improve much in 2017. His defensive value still makes him a credible starter, albeit a below-average one; it’s no accident that the Nationals, a contending team, saw him as a bench piece.

Luis ValbuenaValbuena has primarily played third in the past several seasons, but with Espinosa at the keystone and Escobar at the hot corner, Valbuena will also likely play plenty of first base. Incumbent first baseman C.J. Cron is a righty and Valbuena is a lefty, but the pair will form somewhat of an odd semi-platoon, since Cron has batted a helpful .273/.317/.473 against righties in his short career (demonstrating reverse platoon splits that admittedly might well regress somewhat). Pujols had foot surgery in December that was set to sideline him for several months; although he now appears ready to go, that might have been a factor in the Angels’ pursuit of extra help for first base, since Cron could theoretically have replaced Pujols at DH with Valbuena playing first. And if Valbuena bats .260/.357/.459, as he did in 2016, his bat will play at any position.

Some negative regression seems likely there too, however, since 2016 was Valbuena’s best career offensive season. And chunk of Valbeuna’s value in past years has come from his ability to play a tougher spot on the diamond. As with the outfield, there were plenty of first basemen available on the free agent market, so there shouldn’t have been much need to pay $15MM to turn a good third baseman into one –although, of course, there’s something to be said for Valbuena’s versatility. Anyway, the Angels’ seeming infield logjam won’t be an issue for awhile, since Valbuena will miss the first month or so of the season after injuring his hamstring.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The Angels also got a short-term upgrade at catcher, acquiring Martin Maldonado and a depth pitching prospect from the Brewers for Jett Bandy. Maldonado served as Jonathan Lucroy’s longtime backup, and with a career .217 average, he won’t be mistaken for a superstar anytime soon. He draws walks and has a bit of pop, though, and he’s an above-average defender and framer, so he’s worthy of a bit more attention than he got in Milwaukee. Bandy is younger than Maldonado but doesn’t project as a superstar himself, so the Angels were justified in taking what looks like a slight long-term hit to get a bit better in the short term.

The Angels also addressed their rotation by signing Jesse Chavez to a cheap one-year deal in November. Chavez relieved in 2016 but was perfectly useful as a starter for the two previous seasons, and with his consistently palatable peripherals, there’s no reason he can’t be again. He’ll never be mistaken for an ace, but for $5.75MM, he’s a bargain. Unlike with the outfield or first base, there weren’t many high-caliber starters available, so it made sense for the Angels to strike quickly. Chavez made the Angels’ rotation, with another versatile arm, minor-league signee Yusmeiro Petit, available in case another spot opens.

The Angels also re-signed Andrew Bailey to a very cheap one-year deal. The oft-injured former Athletics closer didn’t post good overall numbers in 2016, although he pitched well down the stretch after the Angels signed him in August. Cam Bedrosian figures to get most (although perhaps not all) of the Angels’ save opportunities, but the Angels will still lean on Bailey in some capacity this season.

Questions Remaining

The Angels opted more for quantity than quality this winter, from many of the aforementioned acquisitions all the way down to more minor transactions involving potential relief arms like Austin Adams (the former Indian, not the pitcher sent to Washington in the Espinosa deal), Brooks Pounders, Kirby Yates and Blake Parker. The elephant in the room here is the Angels’ lack of minor-league depth, a problem that precedes Eppler’s arrival as GM. Eppler needed to pursue depth this offseason due to the unlikelihood that their farm system would provide it.

Last season, when their rotation suffered a rash of injuries, the Halos were forced to call upon questionable options like Lincecum, Brett Oberholtzer, Daniel Wright and David Huff, and they had to continue to turn to Weaver despite his fading velocity and effectiveness. In the end, the Angels’ rotation finished with just 5.6 fWAR, topping only the Braves and Reds.

This year, the Angels will lean on some of the same pitchers who were shelved last year, including Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, to help revive their rotation. That’s exactly the route they should take, but it’s not without risks. Richards was diagnosed with a torn right UCL last year and missed the rest of the season even though he avoided Tommy John surgery; he’s made three appearances in Spring Training, allowing six runs. Skaggs returned from Tommy John last year but had shoulder and elbow issues before the year ended. He’s had mild shoulder problems already this spring. Another of the Angels’ top starters, Andrew Heaney, had Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season and isn’t expected to pitch this year.

If the Angels’ starters can’t hold up, their bullpen might not save them. Bedrosian should be more than capable in the closer’s role, but former closers Bailey and Huston Street (who’s currently on the DL with a lat strain anyway) are questionable late-inning options at this point, and the composition of the Angels’ bullpen seems fluid beyond those three, lefty Jose Alvarez, and Petit. Bud Norris, one of the organization’s minor-league signees, took one of the other spots, giving the Angels a variety of arms capable of pitching multiple innings, even if they might be of questionable quality. They can use the extra bullpen flexibility, given their starters’ recent health troubles.

Deal Of Note

Kole CalhounIn January, the Angels signed Kole Calhoun to a three-year extension with a team option. The deal guarantees Calhoun $26MM, including $6MM in 2017 (replacing a $6.35MM deal to which he’d already agreed), $8.5MM in 2018 and $10.5MM in 2019, with a $1M buyout on the option, which is priced at $14MM.

The Angels get a slight discount on the likely cost of Calhoun’s last three seasons of arbitration eligibility (he was in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two) and gain the ability to control Calhoun’s first free-agent season, and at a price less than the likely cost of a qualifying offer. In exchange, Calhoun receives a relatively large upfront commitment.

The Angels might well be paying for the beginning of Calhoun’s decline, since he’s already 29. Given the salaries he likely would have received in arbitration (which, barring a complete collapse or a catastrophic injury, almost certainly would have exceeded the $19MM he’ll receive now in 2018 and 2019), though, that probably doesn’t matter. Calhoun was worth a full 4.0 fWAR last season, and his well-rounded game figures to age fairly well even if his solid defense declines a bit over the course of the contract. The option season could end up being a bargain, and it might also provide the Angels with a bit of flexibility as they attempt to assemble their next consistently contending team. The extension should also make Calhoun more valuable should the Angels attempt to trade him at some point.

Overview

As dubious as the Angels’ pitching staff might be, a team headed by Trout, Calhoun, Bedrosian, dazzling defensive shortstop Andrelton Simmons and rotation anchor Matt Shoemaker can’t be that bad. If the Angels stay healthy and get good seasons from players who face aging or health questions, such as Pujols, Richards and Skaggs, they could potentially contend. If not, their fine collection of top-tier players will at least make them fun to watch, and Eppler can continue to remake their farm system. Down the line, a full rebuild is a possibility, but it would probably be premature right now, since most of the Angels’ best players are under team control for at least three more seasons.

How would you rate the Angels’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

 
How would you grade the Angels' offseason?
B 44.53% (289 votes)
C 28.97% (188 votes)
D 10.63% (69 votes)
A 9.09% (59 votes)
F 6.78% (44 votes)
Total Votes: 649
Photos courtesy USA Today Sports Images.
Share Repost Send via email

2016-17 Offseason In Review Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals

24 comments

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 11:27am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Phillies’ front office, which continues to chart a steady rebuilding course, added short-term veterans to supplement a group of young talent that is steadily matriculating to the majors.

Major League Signings

  • Jeremy Hellickson, SP: one year, $17.2MM (accepted qualifying offer)
  • Michael Saunders, OF: one year, $9MM (includes $1MM buyout on $11MM club option)
  • Joaquin Benoit, RP: one year, $7.5MM
  • Andres Blanco, IF: one year, $3MM
  • Total spend: $36.7MM.

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired SP Clay Buchholz from Red Sox in exchange for 2B Josh Tobias
  • Acquired 2B/OF Howie Kendrick from Dodgers in exchange for 1B/OF Darin Ruf, 2B/OF Darnell Sweeney
  • Acquired RP Pat Neshek from Astros in exchange for cash/PTBNL (exercised $6MM club option)
  • Acquired RP Pat Venditte from Mariners for OF Joey Curletta
  • Acquired RP Mario Sanchez from Nationals as PTBNL in exchange for RP Jimmy Cordero
  • Claimed RP David Rollins from Rangers (later lost via waiver claim)
  • Claimed 3B Richie Shaffer from Mariners (later lost via waiver claim)

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Pedro Beato, Sean Burnett (released), Chris Coghlan (released), Pedro Florimon, Hector Gomez, Ryan Hanigan (released), Bryan Holoday (released), Daniel Nava, Cesar Ramos

Extensions

  • Odubel Herrera, OF: five years, $30.5MM (includes 2022 & 2023 club options)

Notable Losses

  • Cody Asche (non-tendered), Peter Bourjos, A.J. Ellis, Matt Harrison (still owed $15MM), David Hernandez, Ryan Howard (declined club option), Charlie Morton (declined mutual option), Ruf

Phillies Roster; Phillies Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Ryan Howard’s departure, the Phillies have fully shed the stars that made up the organization’s most recent contending roster — with their salaries also now departing the payroll. Philadelphia is now building a new core, and just made the first long-term commitment to one of those pieces.

If you look at the Phillies’ future balance sheet, there’s just one name on it: Odubel Herrera, the former Rule 5 pick who is now controlled through 2023 after striking an extension over the winter. We’ll have more on that move below, in the “deal of note” section.

Interestingly, that was really the only significant forward-looking move the Phils made over the winter. There was some trade chatter, mostly surrounding second baseman Cesar Hernandez, but there was no urgency to deal him with three years of arbitration control remaining. And the Phils were never rumored to be chasing any controllable major leaguers.

Instead, the club seems content to nurture its existing group of young talent while continuing to build through the draft. But that’s not to say that GM Matt Klentak and company sat on their hands all winter. With massive spending capacity and a new TV contract, the plan called for some fairly significant investments in the 2017 roster — none of which, notably, will impact the future payroll.

That $36.7MM total spending figure listed above is a bit misleading. In addition to its free-agent commitments, Philadelphia struck three separate trades that essentially functioned the same way. The team gave up little in the way of players, but took on $30MM in salary. Combined with the open-market moves, two-thirds of Philly’s approximately $100MM Opening Day payroll comes from newly-added veterans.

So, what did they get for their money? There was no singular focus akin to the Braves’ and Padres’ rotation overhauls. Instead, the Phillies splashed veterans across the roster.

The rotation features some appealing young talent, though the Phillies obviously hoped to relieve the pressure on the arms that will be needed for the long haul. Jeremy Hellickson represented the first major addition when he somewhat surprisingly accepted the qualifying offer issued by the club. While the Phils surely would have been happy to recoup a draft pick, it’s hardly the worst result given the strategy. That said, if the club hopes to cash in on its thus-far worthwhile investment in Hellickson, it’ll need to deal him at the deadline; under the new rules, he’s not eligible for another QO.

Jeremy Hellickson

Despite the return of Hellickson, the Phillies elected to add Clay Buchholz to a staff that’ll also feature Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, and Jerad Eickhoff. There were alternatives to adding another veteran — Jake Thompson reached the majors last year and several 40-man members are throwing at Triple-A — but Philadelphia elected to take on Buchholz in hopes of a resurgence. If he can carry forward his strong work late in 2016 (2.86 ERA over his final 44 innings), then the Phillies can shop him over the summer or perhaps make a qualifying offer at season’s end.

The bullpen saw additions, too, with Pat Neshek coming via trade and Joaquin Benoit arriving from the open market. These elder statesmen both had promising results last year, but also come with questions. Neshek carried a 3.06 ERA while allowing less than one baserunner per inning through his typical blend of few walks and weak contact. But his success was driven by a BABIP-against mark (.216) that was even lower than usual (.236 career), and he was bombed when allowed to face lefties (.240/.321/.646 and ten home runs in just 55 plate appearances). Benoit, meanwhile, allowed just one earned run on 17 hits in his 23 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays, but had struggled with his control and long ball susceptibility over the first half of the season with the Mariners.

With the infield accounted for, Klentak and his charges turned to addressing an outfield that had received meager contributions from the corners in 2016. The first move, acquiring Howie Kendrick, may have been made in part to provide cover in the event that a deal was struck involving Hernandez. But the former second baseman was always penciled in to play left, and that’s where he’ll open the season. A paragon of consistency at the plate for the bulk of his career, Kendrick fell off last season and ended up hitting just .255/.326/.366 — though he did substantially increase his walk rate. While there’s not much upside to him as a left fielder, Kendrick at least represents a sturdy veteran who’ll plug a hole.

Next, the Phils staked a more interesting bet on Michael Saunders, whose deal includes an option for 2018. The 30-year-old was finally healthy and productive last year, though he faded badly after an outstanding start. Still, the overall results — .253/.338/.478 with 24 home runs over 558 plate appearances — were quite good, and Philadelphia would no doubt be pleased with a repeat performance.

That slate of moves was accompanied by the re-signing of veteran infielder Andres Blanco, who has been a handy member of the bench for the past two seasons.

Read more analysis below …

Read more

Questions Remaining

The immediate needs were filled with the offseason shopping, but that doesn’t mean this is a complete roster. While the Phillies surely aren’t mailing it in, it still seems more likely they’ll end up with a top-ten draft pick than a .500 or better record.

In the rotation, there are both upside and downside cases for Hellickson and Buchholz. The same holds, in different ways, for the younger arms. Velasquez and especially Nola had some elbow problems last year while also battling inconsistency. Eickhoff, meanwhile, will need to manage the long ball to reach his potential.

The bullpen has an interesting mix of the above-mentioned veterans and live-armed youngsters. Hector Neris leads that group, with Edubray Ramos and southpaw Joely Rodriguez also on hand. There’s some boom and bust here, clearly, which is all the more interesting given the ongoing questions with regard to the closer’s role. Jeanmar Gomez earned a big arb salary after taking the job last year, but ended the year with a 4.85 ERA and uninspiring peripherals. He’ll be hard-pressed to keep the job; if he can’t, it’ll be interesting to see whether Neris or one of the experienced late-inning hurlers is next in line.

In the infield, shortstop Freddy Galvis has morphed into something of a Danny Espinosa clone, with a sudden power surge, good speed, and excellent glovework offset by an abysmal on-base percentage. He still seems to be a placeholder for prospect J.P. Crawford, who’ll look to gain traction at Triple-A before making the leap to the majors. Hernandez was the team’s true breakout performer in 2016, slashing .294/.371/.393 with 17 steals and a well-reviewed fielding performance at second. Whether he can repeat remains to be seen. Both Galvis and Hernandez could conceivably become trade pieces at the deadline, or the latter could be approached about an extension.

There’s more of a future-oriented tone at the corners. Maikel Franco failed to follow up on his stellar 2015 season, but hit 25 homers and obviously has the talent to become a cornerstone player. The Phils will be watching his development closely. Across the way, Tommy Joseph — the former top catching prospect who was forced out from behind the dish due to concussions — turned in a surprisingly promising year in 2016. He did enough to deserve a full crack at the job with a .248 ISO and 21 homers in 347 plate appearances, though he’ll need to maintain that power and boost his on-base percentage (.308 on a 6.3% walk rate and .267 BABIP) to lay claim to first base for the long term. Joseph also showed fairly significant platoon splits — he hit for power but didn’t reach base as often against righties — so lefty hitting reserves Daniel Nava and Brock Stassi could spell him at times.

Things get even more interesting behind the plate, where Cameron Rupp is seeking to stake his own claim to being a future piece. He slashed a surprising .252/.303/.447 with 16 bombs, representing plenty of lumber for a backstop. Rupp has some prospects nipping at his heels, though. Jorge Alfaro reached the majors last year, while Andrew Knapp has earned the second-catcher job to open the year. There could be quite a bit of intrigue at the catching position for the Phillies if all three of these players pan out, though it’s also quite possible there’ll be some growing pains in the short run.

That brings us to the outfield. The corner spots could either be a source of stability or see quite a lot of change. There’s no doubting that Kendrick and Saunders will see the bulk of the action to open the year, but that’s subject to change. Injury, ineffectiveness, or summer trade chatter could help lead to movement, though perhaps the biggest driver will be the performances of the Phillies’ next wave of outfield talent. Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, and Dylan Cozens could all push for a promotion at some point during the season to come.

Deal Of Note

If there’s a single position on the Phillies’ roster that’s not in question, it’s center field. That’s now the domain of Odubel Herrera, who is one of the game’s more interesting players.

Aug 19, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Odubel Herrera (37) before action against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Herrera more than made good on his Rule 5 status, taking the regular job in center and running with it. He just turned 25 and has turned in consecutive seasons of 111 OPS+ hitting — making him a ~4-WAR player with the good baserunning and fielding metrics he has compiled.

What’s so intriguing about Herrera isn’t just that he was able to leap to the majors, but that he has changed since his arrival. His debut season was plenty promising, though a .387 BABIP left some question as to whether he’ be able to keep pace with the bat. Herrera responded by maturing at the plate, nearly doubling his walk rate (to 9.6%) and shaving nearly four points off his strikeout rate (to 20.4%) even while boosting his power to respectable levels (15 home runs, .134 ISO).

Though he did struggle in the second half — most worryingly, he reverted toward his prior K/BB rates — there’s enough evidence to think that Herrera may have more in the tank as a hitter. Even if that doesn’t make it reasonable to expect him to increase his output substantially, perhaps it provides reason to hope that he can actually remain a reasonably above-average hitter.

All said, it’s a sensible investment for the Phils, who can afford to wait to commit but could also afford to stomach a mistake. Even in a downside scenario, Herrera would seem likely to be a strong fourth outfielder, though of course the club has reason to expect quite a bit more.

With Herrera now taking his place on the accounting books, it’ll be interesting to see who’s next. Philadelphia will no doubt be assessing this season just who ought to receive such a commitment. And that, in turn, will guide not only possible extension talks, but also the player acquisition strategy pursued next winter.

Overview

The Phillies are committed to improving the on-field product without hampering their future spending ability. And they are trying to avoid the kind of multi-year austerity plan that would drive away fans while improving draft position. That approach may simply be a luxury available to a bigger-market rebuilder, but there’s also an argument to be made that an even more dramatic approach could or should have been tried. It’ll be years before we can fully assess, but the upcoming season will begin to show some of the returns not only for the Phillies, but also for a variety of other teams on the same general path (such as the Braves, Padres, and Brewers).

What’s your take on the Phillies’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Phillies' winter?
B 58.44% (706 votes)
C 19.21% (232 votes)
A 18.13% (219 votes)
D 3.15% (38 votes)
F 1.08% (13 votes)
Total Votes: 1,208

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share Repost Send via email

2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies Uncategorized

10 comments
« Previous Page
Load More Posts
Show all
    Top Stories

    Yu Darvish Contemplating Retirement, Has Not Made Final Decision

    Guardians Agree To Extension With Jose Ramirez

    White Sox To Sign Seranthony Domínguez

    Nationals Rebuffed Interest From Giants In CJ Abrams

    Rangers Acquire MacKenzie Gore

    Brewers Trade Freddy Peralta To Mets

    Yankees To Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

    Angels To Re-Sign Yoan Moncada

    Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker

    Red Sox Sign Ranger Suárez

    White Sox Trade Luis Robert Jr. To Mets

    Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones Elected To Hall Of Fame

    Mets Sign Bo Bichette

    Ha-Seong Kim Out Four To Five Months Following Hand Surgery

    Ryan Pressly Announces Retirement

    Phillies To Re-Sign J.T. Realmuto

    Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds In 2025

    Twins Sign Victor Caratini

    Rays, Angels, Reds Agree To Three-Team Trade Involving Josh Lowe, Gavin Lux

    Rockies Sign Willi Castro To Two-Year Deal

    Recent

    Mets To Sign Craig Kimbrel To Minor League Deal

    Yu Darvish Contemplating Retirement, Has Not Made Final Decision

    Padres Sign Samad Taylor To Minors Contract

    Pirates Open To Re-Signing Andrew McCutchen

    Details On The Mets’ Offseason Pursuits

    Guardians Agree To Extension With Jose Ramirez

    Yankees Sign Dylan Coleman To Minors Contract

    Blue Jays Sign CJ Stubbs To Minor League Contract

    Nationals Discussing Trades Involving CJ Abrams, Jacob Young

    White Sox To Sign Seranthony Domínguez

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Every MLB Trade In July
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android iTunes Play Store

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • 2025-26 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • Front Office Originals
    • Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag
    • 2025-26 Offseason Outlook Series
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version