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Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The first offseason of the Twins’ new-look front office was headlined by a litany of Brian Dozier trade rumors that never came to fruition. Ultimately, the winter proved to be a quiet one for a club that has spent the better part of a decade in the American League Central cellar.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

  • Claimed SS/2B/3B Ehire Adrianza off waivers from the Brewers
  • Acquired Rule 5 RHP Justin Haley from the Angels in exchange for cash
  • Traded RHP Pat Light to the Pirates for cash

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The 2016-17 offseason marked the first test for new chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine — the two men that were tasked with leading the new Twins front office following the surprising dismissal of Minnesota GM Terry Ryan (now a special advisor with the Phillies). Those unfamiliar with the Twins may raise an eyebrow at calling it “surprising” for a 100-loss team to fire its GM, but virtually no organization has shown loyalty in its front office and coaching staff like the Twins. Incredibly, Falvey is just the fourth man to assume the top spot in Minnesota’s baseball ops hierarchy since 1985.

Derek Falvey | Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images

While Falvey and Levine didn’t gut their new roster in the same manner that some of their peers have in recent offseasons upon being hired (e.g. Jerry Dipoto in Seattle, David Stearns in Milwaukee), the new Minnesota duo did cut ties on one of the team’s longest-tenured players in the form of Trevor Plouffe. Rather than pay the third baseman a projected arbitration salary north of $8MM, Minnesota outrighted Plouffe, clearing a path for Miguel Sano to man third base.

Along those same lines, Falvey and Levine waited until late in the offseason to designate Byung Ho Park for assignment, banking on the fact that the remaining $9.25MM on his contract would allow him to pass through waivers and remain in the organization without occupying a 40-man spot. That’s exactly how the situation panned out, and he’ll now look to work his way back to the Majors after a strong Spring Training once he returns from an injury in Triple-A.

While an overabundance of corner/DH options (many of whom haven’t been impressive) has been a recent issue for the Twins, catching has been a need in Minnesota since concussions and back injuries forced Joe Mauer to vacate his lifelong position and move to first base. The post-Mauer days have seen the Twins turn to Kurt Suzuki for three years and a long list of less-productive options, including Ryan Doumit, Josmil Pinto, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann, John Ryan Murphy, Juan Centeno and Eric Fryer.

The first significant move for Falvey and Levine was to shore up the catching spot with a plus defender — something they lacked during the three-year term of Suzuki. Suzuki was often a passable offensive option, relative to other backstops, but he struggled greatly in throwing out runners and in framing pitches. No team caught fewer than the 64 runners the Twins have thrown out in stolen base attempts from 2014-16. (And it’s not particularly close, with the Rockies and White Sox tied for the next-fewest at 82.)

Jason Castro’s three-year, $24.5MM deal might’ve seemed steep based on his offensive struggles, but he grades out as one of baseball’s best framers and threw out base thieves at a 30.4 percent clip in 2015-16. Pitching has been one of the Twins’ greatest ills since their 2011 downward spiral, and Castro should help out the staff in a number of ways. Castro’s struggles against lefties may have prompted Falvey and Levine to bring in a player with whom they’re quite familiar in veteran backstop Chris Gimenez. After spending time with Falvey’s Indians and Levine’s Rangers in recent years, Gimenez broke camp as the backup to Castro in Minnesota, giving the club a platoon option with solid glovework himself.

Bullpen depth has been an issue for the Twins in recent seasons, and while Matt Belisle is hardly a big-name addition, he represented a highly affordable option (one year, $2.05MM) that has pitched to a combined 2.15 ERA across 79 2/3 innings over the past two seasons. He doesn’t miss many bats — an all-too-common trend among Twins pitchers — but has enjoyed relatively consistent success dating back to the 2010 campaign.

Questions Remaining

The biggest question surrounding the Twins this offseason was whether they should pull the trigger on a trade of Brian Dozier on the heels of the second baseman’s 42-homer campaign. Unfortunately for Minnesota, it was hardly a seller’s market. Only the Dodgers and Angels truly needed second base upgrades, and the Halos’ lackluster farm system made it difficult to pursue a premium trade target.

Rumors tying the Dodgers to Dozier persisted for the better part of two months. Specific machinations vary from report to report, but the general, underlying theme seems fairly clear. The Dodgers felt comfortable parting with promising right-handed pitching prospect Jose De Leon in a straight-up swap for Dozier, while the Twins wanted at least one quality second piece. Early reports had the Twins pursuing top-level second pieces such as Cody Bellinger and Yadier Alvarez, though later reports indicated that lesser-regarded names like Brock Stewart were off the table as a secondary piece, as well. Ultimately, L.A. swapped De Leon for Logan Forsythe in a one-for-one exchange.

So, the Twins entered 2017 with Dozier again in the heart of their lineup, and the question now turns to whether it was a mistake not to flip him for De Leon. Certainly, the 24-year-old De Leon is a promising piece, but there’s serious risk in swapping a proven big leaguer for just one pitching prospect (as Twins fans know all too well from the Denard Span / Alex Meyer trade), and Dozier could be in higher demand this summer. Dozier’s quietly been one of the game’s better second basemen for the past four seasons (16.4 fWAR, 17.8 rWAR), but a sudden downturn in performance or a significant injury could make the decision to hold look ill-advised.

Looking to the rest of the roster, the Twins face a familiar refrain. There are question marks up and down the rotation, the bullpen could be thin, and the lineup is extremely dependent on a number of high-ceiling but unproven position players.

Ervin Santana has been somewhat quietly excellent since last June, and Hector Santiago is off to a nice start as he looks to rebound from a terrible stint with Minnesota last season. Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia (acquired last summer for Eduardo Nunez) all broke camp in the rotation, but Mejia’s already been optioned out after struggling. Hughes’ velocity is down after thoracic outlet surgery last summer, and Gibson hasn’t shown signs of righting the ship after a down year in 2016.

The Twins lost one rotation candidate early in spring when Trevor May tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. It’s possible that Tyler Duffey could get another look in the rotation, with other candidates including once-vaunted prospect Jose Berrios (who was shelled in his first tastes of the Majors last year) or well-regarded lefty Stephen Gonsalves. Former top picks Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay don’t appear to be especially close, and Jay is in fact now being developed as a reliever. Suffice it to say, the rotation picture is murky, at best.

Adding Belisle to the bullpen was a fine low-cost/low-risk move, but the Twins’ relief corps is still rife with uncertainty. Glen Perkins will be out until at least June following last year’s shoulder surgery, and it remains to be seen if Brandon Kintzler can sustain his 2016 success. Ryan Pressly pitched well from 2014-16, and Taylor Rogers looked like a solid lefty upon debuting in 2016. Beyond that, the Twins are counting on a hodgepodge of inexperienced arms and reclamation projects (e.g. Craig Breslow) to buttress a shaky rotation.

The lineup comes with similar questions. Each of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler has frequented top 100 prospect lists in recent years, and each has had some big league success. But, none of the bunch has solidified himself as a big league regular just yet. Buxton’s early struggles, in particular, lead to further questions for this team.

In the infield, Jorge Polanco opened the year as the everyday shortstop despite the fact that scouting reports peg him as a better option at second base or third base. Sano, meanwhile, needs to prove that he can serve as a passable defensive option at third base. Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana made the club as reserves, but Santana hasn’t hit since his BABIP-fueled rookie season, and his lack of minor league options could jeopardize his 40-man spot at some point in 2017. At some point, Park or Kennys Vargas will be settled upon as the long-term option at designated hitter, but Robbie Grossman has held down the fort quite nicely in that regard early in 2017.

Deal of Note

Entering the offseason, few would’ve projected Jason Castro to receive the most significant contract of any catcher this winter. The 29-year-old is a former first-round pick and did have an All-Star 2013 campaign in which he batted .276/.350/.485 with 18 home runs in 491 plate appearances. But, he followed up that excellent season with a collective .215/.291/.369 batting line from 2014-16 and hit just .210/.307/.377 in his platform year before free agency.

Jason Castro | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The market for Castro was robust from the start, though, with multiple clubs showing interest. The Twins, Rays and Braves led the charge in pursuing Castro, though he was said to have multi-year offers from at least four teams in addition to multiple three-year offers before signing with Minnesota. Compare that to the market of Matt Wieters — a considerably more accomplished offensive player — and the Castro contract becomes a readily apparent sign of a paradigm shift in the valuation of catchers throughout the league.

Catcher defense is being valued at an all-time high, with a particular emphasis on pitch-framing coming into focus. Wieters’ pitch-framing marks have been below average in recent years, as have those of Welington Castillo — another catcher whose bat is superior to that of Castro but was surprisingly non-tendered. Castillo had to settle for a guaranteed two years at a lesser rate than Castro, further exemplifying that teams are increasingly concerned with what catchers do behind the plate than what they can do at the plate.

While the addition of Castro isn’t going to turn the Twins’ pitching staff from a bottom-of-the-league unit to a premium collection of arms, there’s also an argument to be made that signing a catcher with this skill-set was the best way for Minnesota to overhaul its staff in one fell swoop. Framing numbers, of course, are an inexact science, but for the sake of comparison, Baseball Prospectus rated Suzuki 6.8 runs below average in terms of framing last year, while Castro was among the game’s best at 16.3 runs above average.

Overview

As has been the case in recent years, the Twins are relying on some questionable veteran arms in the rotation and a slew of talented-but-unproven position players to fill out the lineup. Thus far, the Twins have trotted out an everyday lineup that features five players — Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco — that were regarded as top 100 prospects within the past two years. There’s plenty of upside in this bunch, but it’s not realistic to expect that each of that quintet will prove to be an average regular or better.

It’s true that in any given season, any club could contend with enough breaks (see: the 2015 Twins). This year’s version of the Twins got off to a hot start, but it still seems likely that 2017 will be more about determining which members of the team’s most recent wave of top prospects can live up to the hype.

If and when they fall out of the race in the American League Central, the Twins will have a handful of chips to cash in and further add to the youth movement, including Dozier, Ervin Santana, Kintzler, Belisle and any of Santiago, Hughes and Gibson depending on health and performance. The new front office didn’t act as a definitive seller this winter, though, suggesting that Falvey, Levine & Co. at least feel it’s possible that enough of the young talent already in the system can be vital cogs in the next competitive Twins team.

Let’s see what MLBTR readers thought about Minnesota’s offseason (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

How would you grade the Twins' offseason?
C 42.71% (905 votes)
D 25.39% (538 votes)
B 17.60% (373 votes)
F 11.33% (240 votes)
A 2.97% (63 votes)
Total Votes: 2,119

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the week’s original content from MLB Trade Rumors…

  • Tim Dierkes published the second installment of the MLBTR 2017-18 Free Agent Power Rankings, rating next winter’s top free agents by their earning potential.  The power rankings have already seen some movement from the first entry in March, thanks to some strong (and slow) starts from players in their contract years.
  • Music, kerfuffles, and eye-popping internet usage bills are some of the topics discussed by right-hander Tim Dillard in his latest Inner Monologue.
  • Though a contract extension between Carlos Correa and the Astros may look like something of an unlikely possibility in the near future, Charlie Wilmoth looks at what a potential Correa extension could look like if the two sides did explore a multi-year arrangement.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series continued with Steve Adams breaking down the Indians’ winter moves.
  • Almost 54% of MLBTR readers felt that Matt Bush should be the Rangers’ new closer, as Steve Adams broke down the options (Bush, Jeremy Jeffress, Tony Barnette and the ever-popular “other”) in a reader poll.  It looks like the Rangers agreed, naming Bush as their first option for the ninth inning, though the club will also use other pitchers in the closer role in order to keep from over-taxing Bush’s shoulder.

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Music & Food

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It’s 2:32pm on Friday April 21st, 2017.  My name is Tim Dillard.  Besides being a Christian, a husband, and father of three, I’m also a veteran minor league baseball pitcher in the Milwaukee Brewers Organization.  This is blog number (not sure), that I’ve written for MLB Trade Rumors… and they still use the same google image of me where I’m sporting the “only a mother could love” face.

2:35pm  My attributes include, but are not limited to: Pitching over 1,200 professional innings without a pick-off, seeing over 400 feature films, being an experienced baseball juggler, playing guitar till my wife made me sell the guitar, eating a PB&J sandwich in thirty-one different states, making Al Roker burst into laughter, and I once successfully shot a bird with a Nerf Bow ’n’ Arrow. (bird was fine, but I still feel bad)

2:40pm  Anyway, FYI – After yesterday’s rainout here in Colorado Springs, today’s early work on the field was cancelled because of a wintery-mix precipitation.  So I have about an hour to squeak down some chronological kerfuffle from my brain before the double-header starts.

2:41pm  BTW – I used the word kerfuffle because it was the Thesaurus.com Word of the Day on Wednesday.

2:41pm  TMA – This is the abbreviation I just made up… it means Too Many Abbreviations.

2:42pm  To write these things I sometimes put in headphones and try listening to classical wordless music.  But I’m currently enjoying an interesting mix being played in the clubhouse.  Right now it’s U2’s Where the Streets Have No Name.  Back in 2004, I wasn’t a huge U2 fan, but then my teammate (and super-utility man) Vinny Rottino said I need to be a huge U2 fan.  I said ok.

2:45pm  During a road trip the other day in Nashville, I was walking toward the stadium when a man in the street told me, “Hey Tim!  I’m 55 years old, and you’re the reason I joined twitter!”  Then he asked if we could take a selfie.  I said ok.

2:48pm  That was a good day too because later that night, The Oak Ridge Boys sang the National Anthem before the game!  Growing up in the south, The Oak Ridge Boys were standard listening procedure in the car and at home.  In fact, out of all the “special memento” baseballs I have, only three are worthy of the shelf in my office.  One is a ball signed by Richard Sterban and the other Oak Ridge Boys, one is signed by actor Jon Gries who played Uncle Rico in Napoleon Dynamite, and the last one is signed by freaking Ichiro Suzuki!

2:52pm  I got Ichiro’s autograph in 2006 during the first World Baseball Classic.  Team Japan was using the Brewers minor league clubhouse for a few days, so a small group of us players timidly walked into their locker room, found Ichiro, and formally presented him with a baseball and a fresh tipped Sharpie.

2:54pm  NOW PLAYING:  Spirit In The Sky by Norman Greenbaum

2:54pm  The availability of music nowadays is fascinating.  My car in high school only had a cassette player. (that’s what was used for music before CDs)  Actually, my first few seasons in pro ball, I used a portable CD player. (it was anti-skip)

2:57pm  Music is a huge part of the baseball world.  For instance, the first home game back after a road trip, you are guaranteed to hear The Boys Are Back in Town from the press box.  Clever.

2:58pm  Some songs are played at nearly every game, like:  Put Me In Coach or The Chicken Dance.  And when it’s “Kids’ Day” at the field, we hear a steady barrage of Let It Go and Spongebob Squarepants.  Thankfully, stadiums are starting to cut back on the most over-played song of all time… YMCA.

3:01pm  Come to think of it, a few days ago I was on a television show because of music!  Via Skype, teammate Ivan De Jesus and I were on the American Spanish language Miami morning show Despierta Ameríca that airs on Univision.  A great interview with lots of laughs and lots of singing!  I’m a big fan of the Latin hits!  Muy Bueno!

3:10pm  All this typing made me hungry so I took a break.  You guessed it… PB&J.

3:10pm  NOW PLAYING:  Lose Yourself by Eminem

3:11pm  Mom’s spaghetti is great, but meals in minor league baseball can vary depending on places and circumstances.  Like in 2009, veteran outfielder Mike Cameron was rehabbing with us in Triple-A, and he bought us an awesome post-game spread!  Sitting shoulder to shoulder in a tiny clubhouse at Omaha’s old Rosenblatt Stadium, we ate steak and lobster with real utensils!  On real plates!

3:14pm  The following year, we arrived in Memphis around 2:00am after a long bus trip, and was greeted by legendary closer Trevor Hoffman!  Like zombies we walked into the lobby and saw a rehabbing Hoffman surrounded by fifty pizzas, coolers of soda, chips, and cookies!

3:16pm  NOW PLAYING:  La Bicicleta by Carlos Vives & Shakira

3:15pm  The hardest I worked for a post-game meal was on Margarita Island in Venezuela.  Around 1:00am I found myself hiking through a backyard, an abandoned casino parking lot, and into a wooded area.  Only to emerge on a dead-end street lined with food trucks!  Muy Bueno!

3:17pm  But probably the most interesting meal I’ve encountered in baseball was in Mexico.  After a game, the home team brought us a huge table with a giant fish on it.  It was sliced open and we just grabbed and ate.  I honestly can’t remember how it tasted, but I do remember the in-meal entertainment was the rambunctious cock fight going on over by first base.

3:18pm  Almost time to “SUIT UP” for the game!

3:20pm  NOW PLAYING:  a commercial… by AT&T.

3:20pm  Some people don’t like AT&T, but I actually love AT&T.

3:21pm  Nine years ago my wife and I rented a small house in Arizona for spring training.  We went to an AT&T store and got a USB thing for internet.  I immediately plugged it into my Xbox, and started downloading episodes of The Office and Lost.

3:23pm  After streaming for two weeks (“That’s what she said!”), AT&T cut our service off, called me up, and said, “Hello Mr. Dillard, we stopped your internet because you’ve gone over your available usage.”  I said ok.

3:24pm  Then said, “Your bill Mr. Dillard… is $12,237.” 

3:24pm  (insert scared/hurl emoji)

3:25pm  SOooo… I’ve set many kinds of baseball records at various levels with different teams over my career, but setting the record for highest bill in AT&T history… that is special!

3:26pm  NOW PLAYING:  Smooth Criminal by Michael Jackson

To Be Concluded…

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

After narrowly missing a World Series championship in one of the most entertaining Game 7s the sport has ever seen, the Indians entered the winter with a clear focus on returning to that stage.

Major League Signings

  • Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH: Three years, $60MM (plus 2020 club option)
  • Boone Logan, LHP: One year, $6.5MM (plus 2018 club option)
  • Total spend: $66.5MM

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired RHP Nick Goody from Yankees in exchange for PTBNL
  • Acquired RHP Carlos Frias from Dodgers in exchange for cash
  • Selected LHP Hoby Milner from Phillies in Rule 5 Draft (returned to Phillies)
  • Claimed LHP Edwin Escobar off waivers from the D-backs (released to allow him to sign in Japan)
  • Claimed 1B/3B/OF Richie Shaffer off waivers from the Reds (later outrighted to Triple-A)
  • Claimed LHP Tim Cooney off waivers from the Cardinals (released, re-signed to minor league deal)

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Brandon Guyer, OF: Two years, $5MM (plus 2019 club option)
  • Roberto Perez, C: Four years, $9MM (plus 2021-22 club options)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B/2B/OF: Five years, $26MM (plus 2022-23 club options)

Notable Losses

Indians depth chat | Indians payroll outlook

Needs Addressed

As one would expect of a team that took the Cubs to the limit in Game 7 of the World Series, the Indians entered the offseason with relatively few needs. The entire rotation was set to return, and the team also possessed some upper-level depth options in the minors. Replacing Mike Napoli at first base and finding a suitable left-handed relief option to join Andrew Miller in the bullpen were Cleveland’s top two priorities. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff and the rest of the Indians front office — minus now-former assistant GM Derek Falvey, who was hired away by the division-rival Twins as their new chief baseball officer — did so in a big way.

Cleveland waited out a surprisingly slow market for top slugger Edwin Encarnacion (more on that pursuit below) and, much as they did in acquiring Miller from the Yankees this past summer, surprised many by adding one of the marquee names on the market. The cost fell shy of expectations for Encarnacion but remains a relatively steep investment for the tight-budgeted Indians, who entered the 2017 season with a club-record $124MM payroll, thanks largely to Encarnacion. Though he’s off to a slow start, April has historically been Encarnacion’s worst month by a wide margin, and his bat should more than offset the loss of Napoli, who returned to Texas for a third stint with the Rangers.

It was a similar story with Logan, as the early market for left-handed relief pitching was extremely steep. After Brett Cecil landed four years and just over $30MM from the Cardinals and Mike Dunn scored $19MM over a three-year term with the Rockies, Logan and fellow southpaw Jerry Blevins looked to be in line for solid multi-year contracts. That never panned out, however, as each languished on the free agent market longer than expected. And while many believed the Indians to be tapped out after their signing of Encarnacion, ownership gave the green light to spend a bit more cash.

Logan was signed to a somewhat surprising one-year deal in February, further proving the point that it typically behooves players (especially relievers) to sign early in free agency. He can still take home a total of $12.5MM if the option is exercised, but waiting out the market and securing a quality ’pen piece on a one-year deal was a nice move by the Tribe’s front office.

With some uncertainty surrounding the health of Michael Brantley as well as the departure of Rajai Davis — who signed back with the Athletics — Cleveland added some notable names on minor league contracts. Both Austin Jackson and Michael Martinez made the club and are serving as reserve pieces early in the season, though one has to imagine that the recently demoted Tyler Naquin will eventually resurface and challenge for one of their roster spots.

Finally, as has long been a hallmark of the cost-efficient Indians, Cleveland pursued extensions with a number of its young players. While efforts to lock up burgeoning superstar Francisco Lindor fell short, the team was successful in hammering out three multi-year deals. Brandon Guyer’s $5MM extension gives the club a quality outfield platoon option at a very reasonable rate through at least the 2018 season and possibly through 2019.

Jose Ramirez | Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Perez extension, too, bolsters the Cleveland bench for the foreseeable future. While some may raise an eyebrow at extending a pre-arb catcher that batted .183/.285/.294 in the preceding season, Perez is regarded as a superlative defensive backstop. He also flashed some offensive ability in 2015 when he hit .220/.348/.402 with seven homers in just 220 plate appearances. The price for catcher defense has continually risen in recent years, and Perez can likely justify the deal with his glove alone even if the bat never comes around. If it does, though, Cleveland should have a nice bargain on its hands.

The big move for Cleveland, though, was agreeing to terms on a long-term pact with perhaps its top breakout star of the 2016 campaign. Ramirez, still just 24 years of age, went from light-hitting utility man to Cleveland’s everyday third baseman last year with an excellent .312/.363/.462 batting line to accompany his 11 homers and 22 steals. He can play virtually anywhere on the diamond, as evidenced by his shift to second base this season in the early absence of Jason Kipnis. Ramirez struck out in just 10 percent of his plate appearances last year and continues to suggest that his power is still developing; he’s already homered four times in 2017.

Questions Remaining

As mentioned above, when a team comes within inches of winning the World Series and retains the vast majority of that roster, there aren’t going to be many questions. In Cleveland, the biggest unknown surrounding the team is simply health.

No one knows what to expect out of Brantley after he missed nearly the entire 2016 season due to a shoulder injury that has now required two surgeries. But the Indians made it to Game 7 last season despite receiving zero production from Brantley, arguably their best all-around player, so anything he’s able to contribute in 2017 is just a bonus. To date, he’s batted .289/.373/.489 through 12 games, reminding everyone what an excellent player he was prior to his injury.

In the rotation, Cleveland will hope for better health from Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, each of whom suffered late-season injuries that compromised the team’s postseason pitching depth. Both right-handers have front-of-the-rotation upside if they’re able to stay on the field. Combining them with Corey Kluber makes for a lethal 1-2-3 atop Cleveland’s starting five. Trevor Bauer remains somewhat enigmatic both on and off the field, but his talent is undeniable even if his results are inconsistent. Josh Tomlin finished poorly in 2016 and is off to a worse start in 2017, so if there’s one potential need, it’s at the back of the rotation.

With Cody Anderson lost to Tommy John surgery, the top depth options in Cleveland are Mike Clevinger and Ryan Merritt (who achieved folk hero status with a tremendous spot start in Toronto during last year’s ALCS). If Cleveland is going to go outside the organization anywhere on the summer trade market, my bet would be on an effort to shore up the fifth spot in the rotation. Of course, both Bauer and Tomlin have had plenty of productive stretches, and each could quickly turn his season around.

Deal of Note

Entering the winter, Encarnacion was arguably the top bat available in free agency, and the notion of him signing with the Indians would’ve been little more than a pipe dream. Deep-pocketed clubs like the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rangers were all connected to the slugger, and the Astros, who have become increasingly more aggressive with their spending, were also prominently linked to Encarnacion. When Encarnacion reportedly rejected a four-year, $80MM offer from the Blue Jays, the assumption was that he’d top that guarantee by a fairly wide margin.

Edwin Encarnacion | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Instead, Encarnacion surprisingly saw his market shrivel in a hurry. The Blue Jays, like many other teams and most pundits, assumed that Encarnacion was gone once he said no to that $80MM figure and pivoted to switch-hitting slugger Kendrys Morales on a three-year, $33MM deal. Boston, instead of spending big in an effort to replace David Ortiz, signed a quality defensive first baseman (Mitch Moreland) and moved Hanley Ramirez into primary DH duties. The Yankees made sense and were often linked to Encarnacion, but they went short-term in picking up Matt Holliday. Ditto for the Astros, who in addition to bringing Carlos Beltran back to Houston, traded for Brian McCann.

With most of the big-spending clubs suddenly lacking a place to put Encarnacion, it became wholly unclear as to where he’d end up. The Rangers were a common thought, but Texas was continually said to be averse (or fiscally unable) to adding another high-priced multi-year contract to its payroll. There was speculation about the Rockies, who had gone outside the box to sign Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70MM deal as their primary first baseman, but the oft-suggested trade of an outfielder (which would’ve moved Desmond to the outfield and freed up a space for Encarnacion) never materialized.

In the end, the bidding war for Encarnacion came down to the Indians and Athletics — as unlikely a pairing as we’ve ever seen for two teams duking it out for one of the game’s top free agents. Cleveland pushed its offer to three years, and Encarnacion cited a winning organization and closer proximity to his family in the Dominican Republic as reasons for choosing the reigning AL champs over Oakland. Encarnacion’s contract is the largest in Indians franchise history — a testament to the unexpected nature of the match between the two sides and to Cleveland ownership’s desire to return to the Fall Classic. If Cleveland does succeed in bringing home its first World Series title in nearly 80 years, the Dolan family won’t complain one bit about their investment in Encarnacion.

Overview

The Indians entered the offseason with very few holes on what was one of the most complete rosters in Major League Baseball, and they addressed their top needs with some of the biggest upgrades possible. It’s still feasible that the back of the rotation could use some augmenting some June or July, but despite the team’s 7-7 start, the Indians are the clear favorite in the American League Central division. It’ll be a surprise if they don’t return to the postseason. And if they can in fact return, this time with a healthy trio of Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar, they’ll enter October with a good chance of becoming the second AL Central team in the past five years to manage back-to-back World Series appearances.

Let’s open it up for everyone to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

How would you grade the Indians' offseason?
A 51.40% (993 votes)
B 34.11% (659 votes)
C 9.27% (179 votes)
F 3.05% (59 votes)
D 2.17% (42 votes)
Total Votes: 1,932

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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MLB teams have only played around 9% of their regular season games, but we’ve got our eye on the next free agent class.  The players referenced in this post are scheduled (or can elect) to become free agents after the 2017 season.  These rankings are subject to change each month, as players drop off due to extensions, injuries, or poor performance, while others see their stock rise.

The first entry in this year’s Free Agent Power Rankings was published on March 14th.  The pitchers have only made three or four starts, and the hitters have around 50 plate appearances.  Naturally, there hasn’t been a lot of movement at the top of the rankings.  We did see one player drop out of the running, as the Cardinals signed catcher Yadier Molina to a three-year, $60MM extension earlier this month.  In hindsight, Molina should have snagged an honorable mention last time, but I underestimated his earning power.

That’s the goal here: to rank the upcoming free agents based on earning power.  These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder.  For the full list of 2017-18 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Jake Arrieta.  Arrieta’s first three starts have gone well, as strikeouts are up and walks are down after 18 2/3 frames.  There is a potential red flag, however, which was explained by Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs.  Arrieta’s velocity appears to be down a few miles per hour in the early going, despite velocity tracking adjustments that have generally boosted readings across the game.  After his second start, Arrieta told reporters, “There’s FanGraph articles. I don’t care about that.”  As the pitcher put it, “When the 95-to-97 comes back, it’s going to be tough for teams. And it still is.”  Arrieta is right in that it’s only April.  But if he somehow stays at 91-92 miles per hour all year, his earning power will likely be lower.  Back in Spring Training, Arrieta told Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, “I don’t think a six- or seven-year deal is out of the question.”  We’ll stick with a five-year prediction for now.

2.  Yu Darvish.  Four starts in, Darvish has succeeded on the back of an unsustainable .230 batting average on balls in play.  Strikeouts are down and walks are up in Darvish’s 24 2/3 innings, but it would be unwise to read into it at this point.  If Darvish is able to make 30+ starts for the second time in his MLB career, he’ll be paid handsomely.  That contract could still come from the Rangers, as GM Jon Daniels told Norm Hitzges on 1310 The Ticket back in March that both sides are open to midseason negotiations.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Cueto scuffled in his first start at Arizona, but has gone seven innings in each of his last two outings.  He remains on track to opt out of his remaining four years and $84MM after the season, or at least negotiate some kind of extension with the Giants.

4.  Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka has gotten progressively better in each of his four starts this year, culminating in a fine seven-inning start against the White Sox last night.  The Yankees’ ace must decide after the season whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM left on his contract.  With a healthy year, opting out would seem to be a no-brainer.  A few weeks ago, Mike Mazzeo and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wrote, “Sources tell the Daily News that if the Japanese ace opts out of his $155 million contract, the Yankees would have no interest in pursuing a costly, long-term extension with the 28-year-old righty.”  They went on to report that the Yankees “are annoyed at Tanaka’s agent, Casey Close, for holding the threat of a potential opt-out over their heads.”  Yankees top brass rejected this report out of hand, as detailed by George A. King III of the New York Post.  President Randy Levine commented to King, “I never heard any of this.  We normally don’t move until the event.”  Recent history backs this up, with the Yankees allowing Alex Rodriguez to opt out before doing a new deal, and waiting until C.C. Sabathia was on the brink of doing so.

5.  Jonathan Lucroy.  Lucroy, 31 in June, remains the best position player of the 2017-18 free agent class despite a quiet start.  After playing in 11 of the Rangers’ 15 games, Lucroy has just one extra-base hit in 44 plate appearances.  One new development: on March 27th, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Lucroy and the Rangers tabled extension talks.  Shortly after that point, Molina signed his new extension with the Cardinals.  With a strong season, Lucroy would be justified in seeking Molina’s $20MM average annual value, over a five-year period.

6.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez sprained the Lisfranc ligament in his right foot on March 18th and opened the season on the disabled list.  On Tuesday, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said his right fielder is “pretty close” to a minor league rehab assignment, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.  At this point, there is no reason to expect the injury to affect Martinez’s earning power in free agency.

7.  Justin Upton.  The big question is whether Upton will opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM on his contract with the Tigers.  We should have a better idea by the time he turns 30 this August.  But if he hits 30 home runs and draws 70 walks, he’ll have to at least consider seeking a new five-year deal. Thus far, he’s hitting .250/.372/.472 with a pair of homers over 43 trips to the plate.

8.  Eric Hosmer.  There is probably confirmation bias in me dropping Hosmer a spot after just 58 plate appearances this year.  But Hosmer’s $100MM projection was always on shaky ground, as he’s hitting just .232/.301/.364 in 512 plate appearances since June of last year.  As far as extension talks, there was a development in mid-March.  Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star talked to Royals owner David Glass, who said, “I think it will be difficult.  I think Hoz wants to stay here, and I think he’s very loyal to our organization. But at the same time, these guys have agents that want to get the best deal for them. Hoz has (Scott) Boras, and if Boras doesn’t get a really good deal for Hoz, then it affects his relationship with his other clients.  They sort of set a standard with each one of their clients. So I think we’ll have a difficult time with Hosmer.”  As you might imagine, Boras rejected the notion that he is driving the bus rather than his client.  In the shorter term, the Royals might have to consider trading Hosmer three months from now if they fall out of contention in the AL Central. That scenario could work to Hosmer’s benefit, as he’d be ineligible for a qualifying offer after the year if dealt.

9.  Mike Moustakas.  Hosmer’s teammate across the diamond has received less contract-related fanfare, but could soon pass him in earning power.  Moustakas, 28, was profiled by Jeff Todd in our Make Or Break Year series in March.  So far, the 28-year-old seems to be making it.  He’s hitting .300/.352/.620 with five home runs in 54 plate appearances.  Moustakas had a hot start last April as well, hitting seven home runs in a 71 plate appearance span before suffering a season-ending ACL tear.  So far Moose seems no worse for the wear, starting 12 of the Royals’ 14 games and making appearances in the other two.  Moustakas, also a Boras client, could end up hitting 30 home runs this year with solid defense at the hot corner.

10.  Michael Pineda.  Yes, it’s been only three starts for Pineda, and his first one was a dud in Tampa Bay.  But his second effort, also against the Rays, was a masterpiece ranking among the best of his 103 career starts.  Pineda can be maddening, with brilliant strikeout to walk ratios but abnormally high home run per flyball rates and BABIPs.  For his Yankees career, the result has continually been an ERA much higher than what a metric like xFIP or SIERA might suggest.  Pineda’s final stat line could be more of the same, but with a few corrections he could receive Cy Young votes this year. (He was also profiled here as a “make or break” player.)

Dropping out: Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo could return to the top ten if he can right the ship, but he’s off to a miserable start. Over sixty trips to the plate, he’s hitting just .175/.200/.298 with a single home run and 13 strikeouts to go with a pair of walks. That’s not enough of a sample to panic, but it’s enough for a few younger players to edge ahead of him at the moment.

Honorable mentions for the Free Agent Power Rankings include Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Carlos Santana, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Chris Tillman, and Zack Cozart.

Poll: The Rangers’ Closer

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After a catastrophic start to the season for Rangers right-hander Sam Dyson, the team’s ninth-inning scene is now among the biggest question marks facing the club’s decision-makers. Like predecessor Shawn Tolleson, Dyson transitioned from largely unheralded setup man to unlikely closer in 2016, racking up 38 saves with a 2.43 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 65.2 percent ground-ball rate. However, Dyson has also seemingly followed Tolleson’s footsteps by imploding early in his second season as a closer; in just 4 1/3 innings this year, the 28-year-old has yielded a staggering 13 earned runs on 14 hits (two homers) and five walks with just two strikeouts. He’s blown three saves and been saddled with three losses for a Rangers team that current sits last in the AL West with a 4-8 record.

A closer change in Arlington seems like a virtual lock, though manager Jeff Banister wouldn’t firmly commit to a new closer yesterday, telling reporters, “We’ll have those discussions,” when asked about a possible change but neglecting to elaborate beyond that (via MLB.com’s Doug Miller). The Rangers do possess several alternative options, so let’s run down the possibilities with a change seeming likely on the horizon…

  • Matt Bush: The resurgence of the former No. 1 overall pick as a shutdown reliever is among the most improbable comebacks in recent MLB history. Bush has been dominant in 66 1/3 innings since making his MLB debut at the age of 30 last season, which came after spending more than three years in prison. With the Rangers, he’s posted a 2.58 ERA with a 69-to-15 K/BB ratio, a ground-ball rate of 42 percent and a fastball that has averaged 97 mph. There’s at least some level of trepidation when it comes to Bush’s shoulder, however, as the right-hander received a cortisone injection in his ailing AC joint last week, though he hasn’t demonstrated any ill effects since returning.
  • Jeremy Jeffress: The former Brewers closer has been generally excellent since establishing himself as a big league bullpen arm back in 2014. Across his past 164 Major League innings, Jeffress has a 2.58 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate approaching 60 percent. He’s typically averaged about 95 mph on his heater, and he racked up 27 saves in 2016 for the Brewers before being shipped to the Rangers alongside Jonathan Lucroy in a summer blockbuster. Like Bush, Jeffress has had his share of off-field issues and spent a month in a rehab facility for alcohol abuse late last season. Looking solely at his on-field performance, he’s a perfectly serviceable option for the Rangers in the ninth inning and comes with the most experience of the team’s internal candidates. Piling up some additional saves would likely inflate Jeffress’ arbitration earnings next year, though the team likely wouldn’t be deterred by that if it kept them in games in 2017.
  • Tony Barnette: A former Diamondbacks minor leaguer that broke out in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Barnette inked a two-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rangers on the heels of a dominant six-year run with NPB’s Yakult Swallows. The 33-year-old has had a slightly rocky start to his 2017 season but was a terrific low-cost addition to the relief corps last season, logging 60 1/3 innings of 2.09 ERA ball with 7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. Installing Barnette as the closer comes with immediate financial implications as well, as his modest $1.75MM salary can rise by as much as $550K based on games finished. He can also see the value of his $4MM club option for the 2017 season increase significantly based on games finished.

The Rangers also have hard-throwing rookie Jose Leclerc, though he comes with just 21 1/3 innings of Major League experience to date. Young right-hander Keone Kela would’ve conceivably been an option to close games in the event of a Dyson meltdown, but he was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock at the end of Spring Training for disciplinary reasons following a clash with some of the team’s more veteran players. Either righty could seemingly be a high-leverage/ninth-inning option down the line, but neither stands out as a likely option at present.

As I did with the Phillies last week, I’ll turn this one over to the general public to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Who should be closing games for the Rangers?
Matt Bush 53.86% (3,890 votes)
Jeremy Jeffress 33.83% (2,443 votes)
Other (specify in the comments if you're so inclined) 7.60% (549 votes)
Tony Barnette 4.71% (340 votes)
Total Votes: 7,222

What Might A Carlos Correa Extension Look Like?

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Greg Genske, the agent for Astros phenom Carlos Correa, made news this week when he told FanRag’s Jon Heyman his client “is never going to do an multiyear contract” before he becomes eligible for free agency following the 2021 season. Correa later responded that he was unaware of Genske’s comments and said he would consider an extension, although he noted that “the price has got to be right.”

Carlos CorreaAs a former first overall pick in the draft, Correa has already received a significant upfront payday in the form of a $4.8MM bonus, and as Heyman notes, he also has an endorsement deal with Adidas. He might therefore not be desperate to sign away future free-agent years to secure a guarantee.

In the end, then, we don’t know much more about the likelihood of Correa signing an extension than we did a week ago, although it seems fair to say he and the Astros won’t be announcing one anytime soon. Just for kicks, though, let’s imagine what an extension for Correa might look like.

When trying to assess the likely shape of a pre-agency extension, MLBTR’s Extension Tracker is usually a great starting point. Extensions tend to be based on precedents set by previous extensions, which is probably one reason why, for example, Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Carpenter and Jason Kipnis all got pre-free agency six-year deals that guaranteed $51MM-$52.5MM when each of them had between two and three years of service time, and why each’s new signee’s deal was worth a few hundred thousand dollars more than the previous one. (All of the deals except Upton’s contained one option, as well.)

So let’s look for potential precedents for a Correa deal based on his talent and upon his service class. Correa headed into the season with 1.119 years of service. Here, then, are the two most expensive extensions in our tracker for players with between one and two years of service time.

Andrelton Simmons: seven years, $58MM
Christian Yelich: seven years, $49.5MM plus one team option

We can see here that a Correa extension will probably require more creative thinking than merely looking at precedents. As good as Simmons and Yelich are, they don’t shine as brightly as Correa one day could, and particularly in Simmons’ case, they wouldn’t have been likely to produce the arbitration paydays Correa one day might.

Also, Correa is a year younger than Yelich was at the time of his extension, and two years younger than Simmons when he signed his. Correa is currently on pace to hit free agency just after he turns 27. His youth could make him particularly valuable on the free agent market, as Jason Heyward — who got $184MM and two opt-outs after becoming a free agent at 26 — can probably attest. Correa and Genske might well see the combination of Correa’s talent and youth as such special characteristics that they’d be especially unlikely to forgo Correa’s opportunity to explore free agency entering his age-27 season, particularly since he’ll hit the market after the signings of what might prove to be precedent-setting new deals for very young superstars like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, both of whom are set for free agency after 2018.

With that in mind, let’s see if there are other, less obvious, precedents that might help shape an offer that could make Correa think twice.

Buster Posey, 2.161 years of service time (Super Two): eight years, $159MM plus team option
Mike Trout, 2.070: six years, $144.5MM

It seems reasonable to imagine that a Correa extension of a typical length of, say, seven years should fall somewhere in the wide gulf between the Simmons deal and the Trout deal. It’s hard to imagine Correa approaching Posey/Trout territory on any deal of reasonable length — he doesn’t have the service time they did at the time of their extensions, and the Astros are already set to pay Correa near the league minimum salary for each of the next two seasons. He also frankly doesn’t yet have the track record Posey and Trout had at the times of their deals. Posey had won the NL MVP award the year prior to his extension, and Trout finished second in AL MVP balloting in each of the two seasons preceding his.

Another possibility might be for the Astros to sign Correa to a way-outside-the-box extension, offering him a guarantee of ten years or more, a bit like the Marlins did for Giancarlo Stanton or the Reds did for Joey Votto. Both Correa and the Astros would surely see such a deal as risky, and it’s a hard to see the sabermetrically inclined Astros organization taking such a decisive risk on a single player. Correa’s camp might also ask for an opt-out along the lines of the one Stanton got. If there were ever a good candidate for such a lengthy extension, though, Correa would seem to fit the bill, as he’s extremely young, talented and athletic.

Alternately, it’s also possible the two sides could reach a simpler deal that would buy out some or all of Correa’s arbitration seasons while still allowing him to become a free agent following the 2021 campaign. Such a deal seems somewhat unlikely, however, given Correa’s existing sources of income and the absence of a good reason for the Astros to agree to such a pact without getting a significant discount on what they believe Correa’s arbitration-year payouts might be.

There doesn’t currently appear to be much motivation on Correa’s side to sign a deal, and it might be best for their side to wait a year before talking about an extension with the Astros, if they ever do. Allowing Correa to play an extra year might allow his camp to strengthen their argument for giving Correa a deal closer to Posey’s or Trout’s. Correa said this week, though, that he’s not interested in a deal once he hits his arbitration seasons, which begin in 2019. And if he does emerge as a Posey- or Trout-level superstar by then, the possibility of a Harper- or Machado-like payday in his future might be too tempting to resist.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is this week’s original content from MLB Trade Rumors’ writing staff and contributors:

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Dodgers spent heavily to retain their top free agents while also adding several new faces to what they hope will be a World Series-contending roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

International Signings

Notable Losses

Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart; Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Despite a plethora of injuries last season, the Dodgers still won their fourth straight NL West title and advanced to the NLCS.  It’s quite possible that even a moderately-healthy Dodgers club could’ve been good enough to win it all last year, and since president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was very impressed by his team’s chemistry and work ethic, the Dodgers’ main offseason focus was to get the band back together.

Even though the Dodgers had three of their biggest contributors hitting the open market, the club was remarkably able to re-sign all three of Kenley Jansen, Rich Hill and Justin Turner.  Obviously the Dodgers’ financial muscle played a part (not just any team can afford to spend $192MM on three players), though there were no shortage of other suitors in play.

Kenley Jansen

Jansen, in particular, was one of the headline names in this winter’s loaded closer market.  He drew interest from the Yankees, Giants, Marlins and Nationals, with the former two teams dropping out of the hunt after respectively signing Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon.  Miami and Washington both reportedly offered Jansen more than the Dodgers’ $80MM offer, though in the end, Jansen decided to stay in a comfortable situation rather than chase a few extra million dollars.  Of course, “only” $80MM still represents the second-largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, topped only by Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees.

The Dodgers also vied with the Marlins and Yankees in the Hill sweepstakes, with the Astros, Rangers, Red Sox and Orioles additionally showing some level of interest in the veteran southpaw.  We’ll focus more on Hill in the “Deal Of Note” section.

Turner, on the other hand, seemed like he always had his eye on remaining in Dodger blue, and the star third baseman indeed re-signed on a four-year, $64MM deal.  Turner has blossomed into one of the game’s best all-around third basemen over his three seasons in L.A., posting 5.6 fWAR in 2016 on the strength of 27 homers and a .275/.339/.493 slash line over 622 plate appearances, plus an outstanding +17.2 UZR/150 and seven Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner.  There is some risk involved in the signing (Turner is entering his age-32 season and 2016 was his first season with more than 126 games played), though on the whole, the deal looks solid, particularly since the Dodgers had a need for right-handed bats.

That search for right-handed hitting extended to the Dodgers’ efforts in the second base trade market, as the team was linked to such notable names as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Twins’ Brian Dozier.  It seemed like a deal was close with the Twins since the Dodgers were willing to move Jose De Leon to Minnesota, though talks stalled over what other prospect(s) would be involved in the trade.

The Twins wanted at least one of Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart (all top-eight prospects in the Los Angeles farm system), so facing that heavy price tag, the Dodgers pivoted to another target, acquiring Logan Forsythe from the Rays for De Leon.  Forsythe emerged as a capable everyday second baseman over his last two seasons in Tampa Bay, providing solid defense and hitting .273/.347/.444 with 37 homers over 1182 PA.  He is also signed to an affordable contract, set to earn $5.75MM in 2017 and available on an $8.5MM club option in 2018.

Even with second now spoken for, the Dodgers still brought Chase Utley back on a one-year, $2MM deal.  Utley is regarded as an important clubhouse leader and he provides infield depth as a backup at second, third and first base.  Franklin Gutierrez was another veteran depth signing who can play all three outfield positions, though his primary role will be as part of a left field platoon with Andrew Toles.  Between Utley in the infield and Gutierrez in the outfield, the two will essentially replace the contributions of utilityman Howie Kendrick, who was dealt to the Phillies.

Though L.A. has several good bullpen options already on hand, the team added Sergio Romo as a veteran arm to serve as Jansen’s setup man.  Romo was limited to just 40 games and 30 2/3 innings last season due to a flexor strain in his left elbow, though he still posted a 2.64 ERA, 4.71 K/BB rate and 9.7 K/9 for the Giants.  Romo will help fill the void left by departed free agents Joe Blanton and J.P. Howell.

Questions Remaining

While it seemed like the Dodgers had their three internal free agents atop their offseason wish list, their resources allowed them to explore a number of other potential options.  There’s an alternate reality out there where Los Angeles upgrades its rotation by trading for Jose Quintana or Jake Odorizzi instead of re-signing Hill, trades for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier instead of re-signing Turner and addresses closer by signing Chapman over Jansen.

The argument can definitely be made that the Dodgers chose wisely by simply re-signing quality players they were comfortable and familiar with on and off the field.  Still, big-ticket free agent signings have been a relatively small part of Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi’s transactional arsenal since taking over the team’s baseball operations department.  Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir and Kendrick were the only free agents signed to multi-year deals in Friedman/Zaidi’s two previous offseasons running the Dodgers, and none of those contracts have provided much return to date.

Now, the Dodgers have handed two expensive deals to two players (Hill and Turner) in their 30’s and also committed $86MM to a relief pitcher, albeit an elite one in Jansen.  Pursuing a trade-heavy offseason strategy would’ve cost the Dodgers more in prospects, though that could’ve been considered an acceptable loss since the team is clearly in win-now mode.  On the flip side, a team with the Dodgers’ resources is less “win now” than “win always,” so making a one-year push isn’t a necessity — a team with a shorter contention window might have added a second or even a third top prospect to land Dozier, for instance.

The added salary commitments will further complicate the Dodgers’ attempts to eventually get under the luxury tax limit.  While the tax threshold will gradually rise over the five years of the new collective bargaining agreement, harsher penalties are also in place for teams that exceed that limit.  For instance, the luxury tax threshold will go up to $197MM in 2018, but L.A. already has over $171.3MM committed to just 10 players for that season.  Real salary relief might not come until after 2018 when several big salaries (i.e. Adrian Gonzalez, McCarthy, Kazmir) come off the books, though the Dodgers also face the possibility of Clayton Kershaw opting out of his contract that offseason.

The crowded L.A. outfield saw Kendrick and Josh Reddick depart and Gutierrez and depth option Brett Eibner (in a trade with the A’s) added to the mix.  The Dodgers’ MLB roster consists of Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Toles, Scott Van Slyke, Trayce Thompson and utilityman Enrique Hernandez available for outfield duty, not to mention Gutierrez and longtime Dodger Andre Ethier on the DL.  That’s a lengthy list of names that will need to be accounted for when everyone is healthy, and while several of those players could be simply optioned to Triple-A, players like Thompson or Van Slyke could also be possible trade chips.

There was much speculation last fall that the Brewers and Dodgers could revisit talks about a Ryan Braun trade, with Puig and McCarthy mentioned as possible candidates to go to Milwaukee in the deal.  Not much seemed to happen on the Braun trade front, however, and while Braun would have carried a big price tag for the Dodgers, he also would’ve brought some stability to the fluid outfield situation.  Puig is off to an excellent start in the young 2017 season, though given how inconsistently he performed in 2015-16, the Dodgers can’t yet know if they’ll get another struggling season, a return to Puig’s burgeoning superstar form of 2013-14 or anything in between.  It would aid the Dodgers immensely if Puig is able to play at least well enough to hold down a regular everyday job and Pederson can be at least somewhat productive against left-handed pitching.

Like the outfield, the L.A. rotation also has a lot of options and the potential for greatness, though little in the way of consistency either performance-wise or health-wise.  Even the phenomenal Kershaw can’t be considered a 100 percent lock given that he missed two months last season with a herniated disk.  Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Hill (when healthy) will be the rotation’s top three, with Kazmir, McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood and Julio Urias in the mix for the final two spots.  If injuries continue to be an issue, it couldn’t be surprise if the Dodgers make another deadline move for pitching, be it a mid-rotation piece or a big name like Quintana or the Rays’ Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi.

Deal Of Note

Over his last 144 1/3 MLB innings, Hill has an even 2.00 ERA to go along with a 10.6 K/9, 4.15 K/BB rate and 46.1% ground ball rate.  These are exceptional numbers for any pitcher, especially for one that just turned 37 last month and who looked all the world like a fringe major leaguer when he began this epic run in September 2015.

Rich Hill

Committing $48MM to a pitcher with those numbers is justifiable, and arguably even a bargain.  The risk for the Dodgers, of course, is Hill’s age, the consideration that his career revival will eventually come back to earth, and his health.  Hill has a checkered injury history that includes Tommy John surgery, and his 2016 was shortened by a month-long DL stint with a groin strain as well as nagging blister problems.  That latter issue has again emerged early in 2017, as Hill is currently on the 10-day DL with a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand.

As noted earlier, the Dodgers don’t have much stability in their starting rotation, and yet the team made a big investment in a pitcher who can’t help but be considered a question mark, regardless of how well Hill has performed when he has been able to take the mound.  Los Angeles was reportedly shopping McCarthy and Kazmir this winter, an ominous reminder of how Friedman/Zaidi’s other big free agent pitching signings have quickly gone south.  The Dodgers would probably be more than satisfied if Hill was suddenly only two-thirds as good as his recent effectiveness but was able to take the mound every fifth day.

Overview

For all of the questions that the Dodgers face about injuries or declining veterans, it should be noted that quite a bit went right for the club last year.  Corey Seager emerged as a superstar on the rise, Maeda looked very impressive in his first season in North American baseball, Toles came out of nowhere to become a regular contributor, and the team did fall just two games short of the National League pennant.  You can’t blame Friedman and company for essentially wanting to replicate the 2016 roster and see if they can run it back, with some new upgrades like Forsythe, Romo and Gutierrez.

How would you evaluate the Dodgers’ winter moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Dodgers' offseason?
B 42.45% (1,136 votes)
A 26.94% (721 votes)
C 18.76% (502 votes)
F 7.17% (192 votes)
D 4.67% (125 votes)
Total Votes: 2,676

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Brandon Phillips became the latest longtime Reds veteran to be traded as the franchise continued its rebuilding process.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera knocking on the door as Cincinnati’s second baseman and shortstop of the future, the Reds needed to clear some room up the middle.  Phillips had already used his no-trade protection to reject two proposed deals to the Nationals and D-backs last offseason, and given the lack of a robust market for the 35-year-old, it seemed like the Reds were willing to simply move Phillips as soon as any sort of trade could be arranged.  It may or may not have taken multiple attempts to deal Phillips to his home state of Georgia, though in the end, the Reds eventually traded Phillips to the Braves for two unheralded young arms (Andrew McKirahan and Carlos Portuondo) and only $1MM in salary relief from the $14MM owed to Phillips in 2017.

Former Brewer Scooter Gennett was claimed on waivers at the end of Spring Training, giving the Reds some veteran depth in the middle infield behind new starting second baseman Peraza.  Between Gennett, Arismendy Alcantara, and Patrick Kivlehan (the latter two originally acquired in late-season waiver claims), the Reds have a versatile trio of bench players who can all fill in at multiple positions.  Veterans Desmond Jennings and Ryan Raburn were also signed to minor league deals this winter, but were released at the end of Spring Training.

Scott Feldman | Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

The backups’ positional flexibility has allowed the Reds to begin the season with just a four-man bench, giving the team more room to add extra bullpen arms in a very fluid pitching situation.  With Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey sidelined, Cincinnati gave rotation spots to rookies Amir Garrett and Rookie Davis, with former Red Bronson Arroyo currently occupying the fifth spot in the rotation.  Arroyo rejoined the team on a minor league deal over the winter and is attempting a comeback after missing over two and a half seasons due to Tommy John surgery and rotator cuff injuries.  It’s unknown what Arroyo can bring to the table after such a long absence, though the 40-year-old promises to be a good clubhouse influence for the young Reds. If he can recapture any of his old soft contact-inducing, innings-eating form, he’ll be a boost to an inexperienced rotation.

The Reds’ higher-priced rotation addition was Opening Day starter Scott Feldman, who signed for $2.3MM in guaranteed money with almost as much available in potential bonuses as both a starter and a reliever.  Given the aforementioned injury problems in the rotation, Feldman served as the team’s Opening Day starter, and his rotation role could potentially make him a trade chip at the deadline.  Feldman can give Cincinnati some rotation stability as somewhat of a younger version of Arroyo — a pitch-to-contact veteran who doesn’t miss many bats. The 34-year-old has shown some solid durability as a starting pitcher in the past, when teams haven’t moved him into a bullpen role.  He steps into Dan Straily’s spot in the rotation, as the Reds dealt Straily to the Marlins for a package of three prospects. (More on that later.).

Drew Storen was the Reds’ other MLB signing this winter, as the former Nationals closer looks to rebound after a rough 2016 season (though he already showed some signs of a turn-around after a midseason trade to the Mariners).  He’ll join Michael Lorenzen as the setup men behind stopper Raisel Iglesias, giving the Reds an intriguing back-of-the-bullpen combination, though “back” may not exactly be accurate, as the Reds have already shown some creativity in their deployment of relievers.

Finally, the Reds completed a long-discussed front office move this winter, promoting GM Dick Williams to president of baseball operations.  Former president Walt Jocketty will remain in the organization as an advisor to team CEO Bob Castellini.

Questions Remaining

As you can tell, it was a pretty quiet winter for the Reds on the transactions front, perhaps indicative of this stage in their rebuilding process.  While there’s no doubt Cincinnati is committed to building for the future, there’s some uncertainty over whether several of the interesting young position players around the diamond (such as Billy Hamilton or Eugenio Suarez) are true building blocks or maybe just potential trade chips to further add young talent to the system.  It hasn’t helped that between the Phillips deal and last winter’s critically-panned trades of Aroldis Chapman (under difficult circumstances) and Todd Frazier, Cincinnati hasn’t gotten much in return for three of its key veterans.  Three players from the Chapman and Frazier trades (Peraza, Davis, and Scott Schebler) look to be regulars for the 2017 Reds, though of that group, it’s arguable that only Peraza projects as a true long-term piece. We’ll have to wait and see how those players pan out, though, and they’ll get their first full tests in 2017.

More trades seem likely, as it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Feldman or Storen flipped prior to the non-waiver deadline.  Hamilton was only available at a very high price tag this winter for teams (such as the Rangers) who inquired about a trade, though the Reds did seem willing to move him and could still do so if a club meets that price.  DeSclafani also drew some trade speculation during the offseason, but since a sprained UCL will sideline until until at least June, the Reds will have to wait to see what they really have in the promising righty.  It’s also fair to note that injuries have hampered the Reds’ efforts both on the field and in their rebuild — besides DeSclafani, either Bailey or Devin Mesoraco could’ve been shopped or dealt by now had either player been healthy over the last few seasons.

It was perhaps a little surprising that Zack Cozart was still in a Reds uniform on Opening Day, given that the veteran shortstop was almost traded to Seattle last summer and the Reds were keen to create room for younger infield pieces.  The Mariners’ acquisition of Jean Segura, however, took Cozart’s top trade suitor off the board, and the Padres were the only other team linked to Cozart on the rumor mill.  You’d think that some team would eventually have interest in a superb defender like Cozart, though with so many contenders already set at the shortstop position, the Reds may have to wait for an injury or another unforeseen situation to develop before the trade deadline to finally move Cozart, who is a free agent at season’s end.

No discussion of Reds trade candidates is complete with mentioning Joey Votto, even if both the team and the star first baseman insist that they are happy to continue their relationship.  Of the two, Votto’s statement carries a bit more weight given his no-trade rights.  Despite Votto’s continued superb play, his age (33) and salary (owed just under $179MM through the 2023 season) already limit his potential market.  Even if he did eventually consent to a trade, any decline will greatly hamper the Reds’ ability to get either a good prospect return or a good chunk of Votto’s salary off their books.

Nobody expected a rebuilding team to break the bank on pitching upgrades, especially with so many young hurlers in the system.  Still, given how dreadful the Reds’ bullpen was in 2016, the club certainly could’ve justified adding more newcomers than just Storen.  Cincinnati is putting a lot of faith in the Iglesias/Lorenzen combo, not to mention in improvement from Tony Cingrani and Blake Wood and rookies Wandy Peralta and Barrett Astin.  The Reds did discuss Jeremy Jeffress with the Rangers as part of trade talks for Hamilton, DeSclafani, and Straily, so once the deadline rolls around, Cincinnati could well target more controllable relief pitching.

Deal Of Note

Since I noted the Reds’ somewhat questionable returns on some of their trades of veteran players, it’s only fair to mention how much value they received from Straily’s one-year tenure with the team.  Cincinnati claimed Straily off waivers from the Padres just prior to Opening Day 2016, and the right-hander ended up being the Reds’ most reliable starter, posting a 3.76 ERA, 7.62 K/9 and 2.22 K/BB rate over 191 1/3 innings.

Dan Straily

On paper, a pitcher coming off that sort of a season who is also under club control through 2020 would project as a long-term piece for a rebuilding team.  Instead, however, the Reds dealt Straily to Miami for right-handers Luis Castillo and Austin Brice, plus 20-year-old outfield prospect Isaiah White.  Brice will begin the year on the DL with an elbow injury but could factor into the Major League bullpen mix later on, White is an interesting speedster and Castillo is a very promising rotation option.  Ranked as the second-best prospect in Miami’s system by Baseball America last December, Castillo owns a high-90s fastball and a potentially above-average slider (as per BA’s scouting reports).  ESPN’s Keith Law thinks enough of Castillo to rank him as the 94th-best prospect in all of baseball.

Will the Reds miss Straily, especially with their rotation again thinned by injuries?  It’s possible, though there is evidence that Cincinnati may have sold Straily at the peak of his value.  The righty’s ERA indicators (4.88 FIP, 5.02 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) weren’t impressive last season, as Straily benefited from a .239 BABIP and 81.2% strand rate.  A fly-ball pitcher throughout his career, Straily allowed a league-high 31 homers in 2016, and that was despite posting some very good numbers at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Straily was only a borderline MLB pitcher in 2014-15, managing only a 6.42 ERA over 68 2/3 IP for the Astros, Cubs and Athletics.  Even if Straily has turned a corner and 2016 represents his new normal rate of production, the Reds still did a good job of selling high on a pitcher that cost them nothing to obtain from San Diego.

Overview

The Reds almost certainly won’t be contenders in 2017, though they have started the season on an impressive 7-and-2 run. The highlight of their first half may end up being picking second overall in the June amateur draft.  It will be another season of development in Cincinnati as the team continues to plot its course through the rebuilding wilderness, though strong showings from Garrett, Davis and/or Cody Reed would go a long way towards solidifying the future rotation.  The Reds will be a team to watch in the weeks leading up to the July trade deadline.  Cozart, Feldman, Storen, Suarez, and Hamilton stand out as potential names on the move, there could be a Straily-esque under-the-radar player that also emerges as a trade chip, and business would pick up considerably if Votto consented to a deal.

What’s your take on the Reds’ winter?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Reds' offseason?
C 34.39% (730 votes)
B 30.99% (658 votes)
D 16.67% (354 votes)
A 9.61% (204 votes)
F 8.34% (177 votes)
Total Votes: 2,123

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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