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Borderline Club Options On Starting Pitchers

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By now, everyone who follows free agency in baseball should be keenly aware that the offseason market for free-agent starting pitching is arguably the worst in history. This winter’s top names will include a 36-year-old that was pitching in independent ball last season (Rich Hill), a former Rookie of the Year that was moved last winter in what amounted to a salary dump (Jeremy Hellickson) and a 30-year-old that opened the season in a long-relief role before a stunning transformation following a trade to the Pirates (Ivan Nova). That’s a far cry from the 2015-16 offseason, when David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake each reeled in contracts of at least five years in length and at least $80MM in total value.

The paucity of not only top-tier starting pitchers but simply reliable arms that can be plugged into the middle or back of a rotation on this year’s open market has an impact not only on teams looking for starting pitching, but teams with decisions to make regarding club options on starters that, frankly, didn’t do a lot to justify the salaries that are included in those options in 2016.

The Rangers, for instance, hold an $11MM option with a $1MM buyout over left-hander Derek Holland. For a pitcher whose ERA has come in just shy of 5.00 over the past two seasons and has averaged just 68 innings per year dating back to 2014, an $11MM salary seems steep, to say the least. Holland, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out in examining his option case, has had two shoulder injuries and a major knee injury in the past three years and has scarcely been able to take the mound at all. The Derek Holland that pitched 213 innings with a 3.42 ERA for the 2013 Rangers probably feels like a distant memory for Rangers fans.

However, it’s also worth considering that even a bounceback candidate like Doug Fister received a one-year, $7MM deal last winter, while Mike Pelfrey pulled in two years and $16MM coming off a dreadful three-year run with the Twins. The Rangers owe Holland $1MM one way or the other, by virtue of the buyout on his option, so they effectively have to determine whether he’s worth investing an additional $10MM. Given the dearth of quality options this offseason, it’s not unthinkable that even rebound candidates will command numbers not that far off from that level. Edinson Volquez and Andrew Cashner, for instance, will probably both receive fairly notable contracts despite coming off of poor seasons. And while each has a better recent track record of health, neither delivered demonstrably better bottom-line results than Holland (who is also three years younger than Volquez). The Royals are effectively deciding that Volquez isn’t worth offering another $7MM by reportedly planning to buy out his $10MM mutual option for $3MM, but that certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t find a taker at or above that $7MM rate on an open market that is devoid of talented arms. In fact, I’d wager that he will top that $7MM mark and come out ahead of the $10MM he’d have earned via that mutual option.

The same logic can be applied to the options held by the Cardinals over Jaime Garcia ($12MM with a $500K buyout) and Clay Buchholz with the Red Sox ($13.5MM with a $500K buyout). An $11.5MM net investment in Garcia, who logged a 4.67 ERA in 171 2/3 innings this year and has his own history of durability issues, might seem steep to some, but a 30-year-old left-hander with a decent track record that finished the year healthy would probably command a multi-year deal in the upcoming market. If anything, his agents may be hoping that the Cardinals elect to decline the option option, but the context of the free-agent market suggests that there’s some value in that one-year commitment, even if the team explores the option of trading him after exercising the option.

Buchholz’s option may look even more daunting, as investing $13MM more into a pitcher that lost his rotation spot and finished the year with a 4.78 ERA and lackluster peripherals absolutely feels like an overpay. But Buchholz pitched more effectively in 28 2/3 innings after returning to the rotation in September, and he’s only a season removed from a 3.26 ERA that came with outstanding peripherals. While he’s been one of the more mercurial arms in the league over the past half-decade, the type of upside he brings on a one-year commitment is greater than that of most other options on the free-agent market. As is the case with Garcia, a multi-year pact could be attainable if he were to reach the open market (remember, again, that Pelfrey found two years last winter coming off not just a poor season but a poor three years and has never matched the success of Buchholz’s best years).

None of the three players in question here enjoyed a particularly good season, but each at least finished the year healthy enough to take the ball and has enjoyed quality results in the past. Even if their current teams feel that there’s no fit on the 2017 roster for a pitcher with these levels of question marks, it still makes sense to exercise the options and explore the trade market. Even if the Rangers, for instance, include $4MM to trade Holland elsewhere in exchange for a minor leaguer or two, they’re effectively purchasing those prospects for $3MM. It’s far from a lock that these options will be exercised, of course, and it’s worth also mentioning the likes of Gio Gonzalez and Jason Hammel, who seem like easier calls but wilted in the final month of the season in this discussion as well. From where I stand, so long as a pitcher finished the season in a reasonable state of health, committing to a one-year deal at a not-backbreaking rate given the market alternatives and the number of rival clubs that figure to be on the hunt for rotation help is the right call.

How Much Will Jose Abreu Earn In 2017?

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Three years ago, the White Sox signed Cuban slugger Jose Abreu to a franchise-record six-year, $68MM contract.  Abreu kicked off his MLB career with a monster 2014 campaign, winning Rookie of the Year and finishing fourth in the MVP voting.  His offensive production has declined steadily since then, but still remains above average.  Now, Abreu is presented with an important decision that will impact his future earnings.  Within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, Abreu and his agents must decide whether he will opt out of his existing contract and into MLB’s arbitration system — a right that is afforded to him via a clause in that six-year pact. (Note: Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig finds himself in a similar situation, albeit coming off a weaker year. His situation will be addressed separately from Abreu here at MLBTR.)

If Abreu keeps his current contract, he will earn $34MM from 2017-19.  That includes salaries of $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018, and $12MM in 2019.  Abreu’s agents must determine whether their client can do better in arbitration, without the luxury of a precedent for a situation like this.

Abreu’s baseline 2016 salary, for the purposes of arbitration, appears to be $11.66MM.  That figure is calculated by taking his $10MM signing bonus, dividing it by his six-year term, and adding it to his $10MM salary from 2016.  That’s a critical difference, as arbitration paydays are based largely off of the previous year’s salary.  However, there is some gray area in this all-important baseline figure, and the Collective Bargaining Agreement does not provide clarity.  First, does it make sense to divide the signing bonus by six years, even when Abreu is opting out of the last three?  An agent could argue for dividing the bonus by three years, setting Abreu’s 2016 salary at $13.33MM.  Second, even if the six-year term is used, the Players Union tends to calculate net present value on the signing bonus, which could put Abreu’s 2016 salary around $11.88MM.

The White Sox will surely argue against interpretations that assign Abreu a higher number for his 2016 salary.  I think they would agree that for the purposes of establishing an arbitration baseline, he earned $11.66MM this year, unless there is something in the contract that calls for the exclusion of the signing bonus in determining his 2016 salary.

Is there any argument to be made that based purely on statistical merit, and not prior salary, Abreu should earn more than $11.66MM in 2017 through arbitration?  Nope.  Abreu seems to be in the range of Giancarlo Stanton’s first three years, which earned him $6.5MM for his first arbitration year in 2014.  Even with inflation, Abreu wouldn’t get past $11.66MM.

Since Abreu “deserves” a salary well below $11.66MM through arbitration, can the White Sox argue for cutting his salary?  Using the maximum allowable cut of 20 percent, the team could theoretically argue for a $9.33MM salary for Abreu for 2017.  However, salary cuts are extremely rare in the arbitration process, so much so that MLBTR’s automated model doesn’t even consider them.  Ian Stewart’s pay cut in 2012, after an awful season, is not relevant here.  So I think the worst case scenario for Abreu if he opts into arbitration is getting a repeat of that $11.66MM salary for 2017.  That would be a win for him, since his contract would otherwise pay him $10.5MM in 2017.

Can Abreu actually score a raise for 2017, beyond the $11.66MM baseline, though?  It’s possible, especially once appearances come into play.  It would look bad for the White Sox to try to cut Abreu’s salary for 2017, but it also might not look great to the public if they suggest he does not deserve a raise.  Do you think Rick Hahn would try to explain all of the above to White Sox fans, in justifying an argument against giving Abreu a raise?  Abreu’s agent, on the other hand, can feign mock outrage to the media that the White Sox don’t think a cornerstone player such as Abreu, with a .299 average, 91 home runs, and 308 RBI in three seasons, deserves a raise.  The White Sox could consider giving Abreu $12MM or more to save face.

Abreu gains upside by opting into arbitration.  He’s still in his prime, and he plays in a hitters’ ballpark.  Abreu could put up strong baseball card numbers in the coming seasons, maybe even reversing his declining power trend.  Even just normal Abreu performance, combined with token arbitration raises each year, could earn him $40-45MM from 2017-19, instead of the $34MM his contract would have paid.

Abreu’s downside, on the other hand, is limited.  I don’t think a salary cut at any point is likely, so he could simply get repeat salaries three times and still come out with $35MM for 2017-19.  The one risk factor would be in the White Sox non-tendering him after the 2017 or ’18 season, in which case he’d become a free agent.  The White Sox would only do so if his performance truly cratered, and even then, Abreu would make back most or all of the lost earnings in free agency.

Ultimately, I do expect Abreu to opt into MLB’s arbitration system, and I believe he’ll get a salary of about $12MM for 2017.

MLBTR Mailbag: Mariners, Rays, Rockies, KBO

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Thanks as always for all of the questions in this week’s mailbag. As you know, we can only pick a short few, but you can ask the MLBTR staff considerably more questions during our three weekly chats — Tuesdays at 2pm CT with myself, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CT with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CT with Jeff Todd. Onto this week’s questions…

Do you see the M’s making a push for a big-name free agent like Edwin Encarnacion to play first base and eventually take over at DH for Cruz in two years? I think he’d be a great clubhouse fit with Cano/Cruz/Felix/Martin. — Tara W.

There’s a definite fit for Encarnacion in Seattle, but GM Jerry Dipoto said at the time he signed on as the Mariners’ GM that he views free agency more as a means of augmenting his roster than of building up the foundation. The Mariners traded Mike Montgomery for Dan Vogelbach back in July with the belief that Vogelbach could be the team’s first baseman in the near future (and possibly shift to DH when Cruz departs), and adding in the fact that signing Encarnacion would mean parting with the No. 18 pick in next year’s draft only makes it seem more unlikely that they’ll beat the market for his services. I do think the Mariners will spend some money this winter, be it via free agency or taking on some contracts in trades, with the bullpen, one corner outfield spot and shortstop all likely areas of focus.

2008 is the last year the Rays had a catcher that could hit the ball. Do you see the Rays going after Kyle Schwarber of Cubs or J.T. Realmuto of Marlins? What kind of package would get either one? — Jim M.

Any fan hoping his or her favorite team will pry Schwarber away from the Cubs would be wise to simply move on from that line of thinking. Schwarber was one of the most untouchable players at this year’s trade deadline, with the Cubs steadfastly refusing to budge from their unwillingness to include him in a trade even for Andrew Miller. Realmuto won’t be easy to obtain either, though I can at least see the possibility of something working out with the Rays. The Marlins are in the market for rotation upgrades and have very little in the way of premium minor league talent, so using a big league piece like Realmuto to acquire that pitching could make some sense. The Rays have a number of young arms with which they could part, including Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez, Matt Andriese and Blake Snell. The Marlins probably aren’t giving up four years of Realmuto in a one-for-one swap for any of those pitchers, but given the Rays’ rotation depth, the framework for a deal could certainly be worked out. One thing to consider with regard to Realmuto, though, is that the Rays have placed a high emphasis on pitch-framing in recent years (Rene Rivera, Hank Conger), and Realmuto receives poor ratings in that respect.

I’m excited about our offense in ’17 with the sole exception of 1b. Although a CarGo move to first sounds intriguing, a big right handed bat like Trumbo might make more sense. How much would that cost and can the Rockies afford it? — Jarrett M.

The Rockies would have to punt the top unprotected pick in the 2017 draft, No. 11 overall, in order to sign Trumbo this offseason, as he’s a lock to receive a qualifying offer and reject it in search of a significant multi-year deal. The Rockies would not only have to sacrifice that pick but also be willing to push their payroll up into record territory in order to add Trumbo into the fold, as they’re currently headed for a payroll around $109.5MM right now even before making any offseason additions, based on MLBTR’s arbitration projections. That figure could change, of course, in the event that someone like Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra or Carlos Gonzalez is traded, but as it stands, it’s tough to see the Rockies adding a bat that’ll figure to cost them at least $15MM per season on a multi-year deal this winter — especially when there are glaring needs in the bullpen and a deep reservoir of free-agent relievers from which to draw.

Are there any projected big name KBO or other foreign league players expected to be posted this offseason? Especially with the weak free agent pitching market this offseason, it seems like a a prime time to be posted. — Hunter M.

The simple answer is that there aren’t any superstar-caliber players that are lined up to become available this offseason. That would change in the event that Japan’s Nippon Ham Fighters elected to post 22-year-old ace/slugger Shohei Otani, who posted a 2.12 ERA in 20 starts on the mound and also a 1.004 OPS in 382 plate appearances as an outfielder this past season, but to this point there’s been no indication that’ll happen.

There are still some names from the Korea Baseball Organization that will be available for unrestricted free agency this winter, though, meaning that like Hyun Soo Kim last offseason, they won’t have to go through the posting process. Left-handers Kwang-hyun Kim, Hyeon-jong Yang and Woo-chan Cha will all be eligible to sign with big league teams this offseason if there’s interest. It’s worth noting that the Padres won the rights to negotiate with Kim two winters ago when he was posted but never reached a deal, while the Rangers reportedly placed the top bid on Yang that same offseason, but his team, the Kia Tigers, rejected the $1.5MM figure. The Twins were also connected to Yang that winter.

Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, who was posted last season but did not receive a bid, is an unrestricted free agent this winter as well and could seek a deal with a Major League team as well. Hwang was able to replicate last year’s power surge at the plate while cutting his strikeout rate quite a bit, so it’s possible that he caught the attention of a few big league teams with his 2016 play. We’ve been told at MLBTR that Hwang will be coming over to the U.S. early next week and spend several weeks working out stateside, which should give big league clubs ample opportunity to take a look at him.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a season that was destroyed by injuries, the Angels will attempt to assemble a healthier, more competitive team for 2017.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

You’ve heard the Angels’ sob story by now. They suffered a rash of injuries early in 2016 that effectively ruined their season, forcing them to lean on questionable starters like Tim Lincecum in a desperate effort to find someone, anyone, who could take the ball every fifth day. They have Albert Pujols signed to a toxic contract. And they have a thin collection of prospects that, before the season, ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only) described as “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen.” Woe be the Angels, woe be Mike Trout, and woe be GM Billy Eppler, who took the job last October.

Or so it would appear. Without a doubt, the Angels have problems. But their situation is more complex than their 74-88 2016 season and terrible farm system make it seem. The worst might be over, and the team can take big steps this winter toward a much-needed reboot.

The Angels’ poor 2016 performance was due in large part to a pitching staff that, by advanced metrics like xFIP and SIERA, ranked with the Reds as one of the league’s worst. That staff should be much better next season. Garrett Richards, who pitched just 34 2/3 innings in 2016, appears to be healthy after opting for stem cell treatments rather than surgery to rehab his torn UCL. It’s far from certain dodging Tommy John will work out for him, or that he’ll return to his earlier form, but the news so far is promising. Tyler Skaggs, too, could pitch a full season after missing all of 2015 and most of 2016 due to arm trouble. The 2017 Angels already appear to have more healthy rotation talent than the 2016 team did, and that’s before even making a move.

Then there are Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, who made a combined $40MM in 2016. Neither helped the team — Weaver spent the season on a futile quest to prevent opposing hitters from smashing 83-MPH fastballs to smithereens (although he deserves some credit for soaking up 178 innings despite his velocity troubles), and Wilson was hurt. They’ll both be free agents, and their departures will give the Angels considerable payroll flexibility, as they’ll only have about $125MM in payroll commitments for 2017 (including their arbitration-eligible players) compared to $165MM last season. In the recent past, they’ve limited payroll in an effort to stay beneath the luxury-tax threshold; it’s not entirely clear where the threshold will be next year, but it is clear the Angels will be comfortably beneath it before they begin shopping.

This is, unfortunately, not a good offseason to go hunting for pitching help, which the Angels will still need even if we make the tenuous assumption that Richards and Skaggs will be fully healthy. Those two could join Matt Shoemaker and Ricky Nolasco in the Angels’ 2017 rotation, but the team still needs a starter, or maybe two. The best starters the organization has who haven’t yet been mentioned here are Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano, who are both likely to miss the 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery. And the team’s farm system seems unlikely to produce much in the way of starting pitching help, or to give it much currency to acquire a starter on the trade market. The Angels do have lefty Nate Smith at Triple-A, and perhaps Brett Oberholtzer could be an option if he misses Super Two. Alex Meyer is another possibility. But the Angels don’t have much in the way of depth.

That could mean they enter a free agent market headed by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson. Alternately, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register recently suggested, they could use their available funds to take on a bad contract. They’ll have to get creative to make trades, but there should be a variety of pitch available with salaries high enough to limit the prospect cost they’ll take to acquire — someone like Jaime Garcia or Clay Buchholz, who both have 2017 team options, could make sense, or perhaps the Angels could pursue a young veteran like Tom Koehler or Drew Smyly.

The Angels’ position players were productive in 2016, as any group of hitters led by Mike Trout will tend to be. Trout, Kole Calhoun and Andrelton Simmons give the Angels a formidable core, and the team also seems somewhat settled at third base (where they’ll almost certainly exercise the option of the productive Yunel Escobar, although perhaps it’s at least faintly possible they could move Escobar to second and try to acquire a third baseman instead) and 1B/DH (where they have C.J. Cron and Pujols’ immovable contract).

That leaves catcher, second base and one outfield spot. Luckily for the Angels, the markets at those positions are more robust than the starting pitching market. Available catchers include Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and the injured Wilson Ramos. There’s also the chance the Angels could again gamble on Geovany Soto, who missed most of 2016 due to various injuries but was productive when he played. Soto might be an especially good fit for the Angels in that he would likely only require a one-year deal, helping the Angels balance their desire to be competitive in 2017 with the likelihood that they won’t contend until future seasons. Whoever the Angels end up with, he’ll likely pair with Jett Bandy, who struggled to get on base but otherwise had a reasonably productive rookie season in 2016.

The second base market is headlined by Neil Walker and Chase Utley, with only Walker requiring what figures to be a significant long-term commitment. It’s surely a long shot, but signing both Utley and either Sean Rodriguez or Steve Pearce would be an interesting outside-the-box move. Rodriguez and Pearce are both right-handed batters who hit well and could be good complements to the lefty-swinging Utley, while also potentially helping the Angels’ outfield situation.

The top prize in the outfield will be Yoenis Cespedes, making the relatively safe assumption that he’ll opt out of his deal with the Mets. The Angels weren’t among the top contenders for Cespedes last offseason because of luxury-tax concerns, but that could be different this winter. Jose Bautista, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez are also available. A left-handed hitter like Michael Saunders, Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, Colby Rasmus or Jon Jay, or a switch-hitter like Angel Pagan, could work, since the Angels currently have a righty-heavy lineup. (The list of current Angels righties also includes former top Mets prospect Jefry Marte, who hit well down the stretch last season and could get playing time in the outfield as needed.) Former Angels slugger Mark Trumbo will be available after a 47-homer season, but the Angels would do well to avoid him at the price they’re likely to have to pay, since he’s poor defensively and they don’t have space at DH.

The bullpen’s 3.77 ERA in 2016 was merely respectable, and its 4.45 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA indicate that Angels relievers were weaker than their ERAs suggested. Closer Huston Street figures to be healthy after a terrible 2016 season in which he posted a 6.45 ERA in 22 1/3 innings and missed time to oblique and knee problems. It remains to be seen whether he can return to form, given his poor 2016 performance and his velocity, which has declined since 2009 and now rests at around 88 MPH. Cam Bedrosian likewise ended the season on the DL due to a blood clot, but his future appears brighter than Street’s — he had a brilliant 2016 season and figures to be healthy for Spring Training.

The 2017 bullpen should also feature some combination of Jose Alvarez, J.C. Ramirez and Mike Morin, all of whom soaked up innings at least somewhat effectively last season. And, depending on who remains on their 40-man roster once the offseason is through, the Angels will also have a variety of even lower-wattage options to sort through, like Blake Parker, Deolis Guerra, Kirby Yates, Meyer, and lefties Cody Ege, Ashur Tolliver and Greg Mahle.

Parker, Yates, Ege and Tolliver are all recent waiver claims, and the waiver claim has lately been the Angels’ most-used tool to compensate for their lack of farm system depth. The team could continue to tread down that narrow avenue and others like the Rule 5 Draft, which is where they originally got Guerra. It might even work, at least to a degree — Parker, in particular, seems likely to be at least somewhat productive in the big leagues, based on his recent minor league numbers. Still, the Angels will probably want to grab at least one experienced reliever on a big-league deal this offseason, particularly given the uncertainty regarding Street. They might also want to re-sign Andrew Bailey, who pitched well in 12 appearances with the team.

The Angels have many holes. Even if they spend relatively heavily, they aren’t likely to adequately fill them all, and it will be awhile before Eppler and his front office can produce enough homegrown talent for the team to start filling talent gaps with farm-raised players. For now, they’ll have to spend money, and be creative where spending on free agents won’t work. (The Angels do currently have the last protected pick in the 2017 draft, and therefore won’t risk losing a farm-system-nourishing first-round pick if they pursue free agents who have been extended qualifying offers.)

Mike TroutThe good news is that they have Trout, a player so terrific that the Angels can be competitive if the rest of their players are even adequate. A player who routinely produces nine-win seasons can hide a lot of problems. The 2017 Angels aren’t going to be perfect, but Trout alone gives them a solid chance at being decent, and some smart free-agent signings could make them even a bit better than that.

After the Angels’ rash of injuries last year, there was plenty of outside discussion about the team potentially trading Trout. But the speculation went nowhere, and understandably so. It would be extremely difficult for the Angels to get fair value for Trout, for one thing. Also, he only recently turned 25, and he’ll be under team control for four more seasons. That should be enough time for Eppler to improve the Angels’ talent base. If the team’s big-league core hasn’t significantly improved in a couple years, the Angels can easily wait to trade Trout then, as long as he stays healthy.

In the meantime, the situation in Anaheim isn’t as dire as last season made it look. The team’s farm system is an ongoing problem, and it gives the organization a low floor — injuries ruined the Angels’ 2016 season, and that could happen again next year or in 2018, because the organization currently doesn’t have the depth to compensate for them. That’s a serious concern, given that it isn’t automatic that Richards will be ready to pitch and pitch well. But with Trout, Calhoun, Simmons, Richards, Shoemaker and Bedrosian aboard, there’s plenty of talent. And with money to spend, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Eppler were able to cobble together another contending team before too long.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

Despite a virtually unprecedented sell-off at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees were in the thick of the Wild Card race through late September thanks to some significant strides from their young talent. With the path to playing time for a number of upstart players beginning to clear, they’ll look to supplement their increasingly youthful core in an effort to return to postseason play next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Other Financial Commitments

Free Agents

New York Yankees Depth Chart; Yankees Payroll Overview

Few would’ve pegged the Yankees as likely contenders after dealing Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the team hung around in the Wild Card race, buoyed largely by the superhuman performance of rookie Gary Sanchez and late flourishes from arms like CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka — each of whom was excellent in September.

However, while Sabathia, Pineda and Tanaka each finished strong, that performance is potentially misleading. Each member of that trio entered the 2016 campaign with significant health questions — Sabathia’s knee, Pineda’s shoulder, Tanaka’s elbow — and it’d be unwise to expect that group to combine for 30 starts apiece once again in 2017. With the loss of Nathan Eovaldi to Tommy John/flexor repair surgery, the Yankees’ pitching depth took a further hit, leaving it unclear as to exactly who can shoulder the load for the rotation next season.

Certainly, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia are penciled into the mix, but the two additional spots beyond that group of veterans is up for grabs. Chad Green, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are all candidates, and Adam Warren has done his share of starting for the Yankees in the past as well. But it’s not entirely clear that Severino’s future is in the rotation after a ghastly 8.50 ERA as a starter (47 2/3 innings) against a ridiculous 0.39 ERA as a reliever (23 1/3 innings). Obviously, those are small samples, but questions about Severino’s long-term ability to start date back to his days as a prospect, and the 2016 season certainly lends some credence to those who advocate for him to join Dellin Betances as a rotation prospect that instead thrives as a power arm in the bullpen. The 52 strikeouts that Green piled up in just 45 2/3 innings make him the next-most intriguing name of the bunch, but he finished the season on the shelf due to a flexor strain of his own, so there’s little certainty with regard to the 25-year-old.

The free-agent market is notoriously thin this offseason, though if GM Brian Cashman wants to utilize the financial flexibility he gained via the retirement of Mark Teixeira and the shedding of the Beltran, Chapman and Miller contracts to chase upside, the Yankees can certainly afford to beat the market for Rich Hill. The 36-year-old’s renaissance has been one of the most remarkable storylines of the past season, and Hill is unquestionably the only thing resembling a top-of-the-rotation pitcher on the free-agent market. He’d add his own laundry list of injury question marks to the Yankees’ ledger, of course, but Hill’s 2.21 ERA and 178-to-39 K/BB ratio across his past 146 1/3 big league innings (postseason included) are difficult to ignore.

The other top names on the market include Jeremy Hellickson, who figures to reject a qualifying offer (which curbed the Yankees’ free-agent pursuits last winter in an offseason in which they remarkably elected not to sign a single MLB free agent), and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Bounceback arms will be plentiful, with the likes of Charlie Morton, Brett Anderson, Bud Norris, Jake Peavy and Henderson Alvarez all available if they’re comfortable trying to reestablish themselves in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium.

The trade market represents Cashman’s other primary avenue to a big league rotation piece, but the GM has indicated that he doesn’t think he’s at the point where he’s ready to offload a newly acquired plethora of high-end minor league talent in order to procure a front-line starter. That could be a smokescreen and could change as opportunities arise throughout the offseason, but for now it sounds like Yankees fans should think more along the lines of Ervin Santana than Chris Sale or Chris Archer when it comes to trade targets. The subtraction of a number of a number of expensive commitments — Teixeira is already off the payroll, and both Alex Rodriguez and Sabathia will be next offseason — also allows Cashman to consider the possibility of taking on a burdensome contract from another club that would be more manageable for the Yankes. Whether it’s achieved through free agency or trades, adding an arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 campaign seems imperative, as the Yanks could see Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia all depart next offseason.

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A Look Beyond The Tim Tebow Signing

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Burke Badenhop made his Major League debut on April 9, 2008 when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief for the Marlins. In the eight years that followed, he pitched 512 1/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with the Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Red Sox and Reds. He’s been a part of four trades (most notably the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis blockbuster), tested Major League free agency and been in more than a dozen Major League and minor league clubhouses. We are thrilled to have Burke bring some of that unique perspective to MLB Trade Rumors. This is his fifth offering; he has previously written about the long path to reaching free agency, importance of September roster expansion, the experience of playing the spoiler and how big leaguers separate themselves from the teams for which they grew up cheering.

Upon hearing that Tim Tebow had been training for the better part of a year to play baseball, I didn’t think much of it.  I figured he would have a showcase, scouts would show up, and the baseball world would get to see what the Heisman great and former NFLer had to offer.  If he were any good, he’d show promise in his workout.  I completely assumed and understood that he would be given a bit more benefit of the doubt thanks to his name alone.

As you know, the reviews on Tebow were mixed after the workout.  Most reports praised his power, were skeptical of his outfield work, and noted his arm was well below average.  The critique that stuck with me most was a scout’s view that Tebow looked like “an actor trying to portray a baseball player.”  Such a description summed up so many things in just one sentence.  I pictured Bernie Mac hacking away in Mr. 3000 or Freddie Prinze Jr.’s rudimentary mechanics from Summer Catch.  The average fan might not notice, but as a pro baseball player, you know the difference between a ballplayer and someone who’s just dressed as one for Halloween.

I checked out the video from the workout out of curiosity.  Tebow’s swing looked fine to me.  It was definitely long, but it was powerful and fell far short of looking as bad as a Charles Barkley golf swing.  Tebow’s outfield work definitely left more to be desired, though.  He shagged fly balls with an awkward ‘five step drop’ type of footwork.  And I couldn’t stop looking at his glove.  Not the type of glove or the color or anything, but how it was broken in.  It was just wrong.  It didn’t have a pocket, it was bent in a weird way and he had all five fingers in each finger hole, which I’ve never seen an outfielder do.

Despite all the red flags I saw and read about, I figured someone would still sign him.  I had no problem with that.  He had some pop from the left side.  You can teach him how to break a glove in later.  The problem for me arose when I heard he signed for $100,000, the equivalent of a bonus for a top ten round draft pick.  For some reason, it hurt.  It stung.

Big leaguers are found all over the draft.  For every first-round superstar like Kris Bryant, you’ll find a Daniel Murphy in the 13th round.  I was drafted in the 19th round as a college senior.  I signed for $1,000.  You could draft 100 of me for the price of one Tim Tebow.  Such a thought only elicits feelings of disrespect.

I fully realize that Tebow will sell a lot of jerseys and will entice far more fans to come to the ballpark than I ever did.  From a business standpoint, he will probably be profitable.  But, as a former player, those ends don’t necessarily justify the means.  Taking a roster spot on a minor league team is one thing, but also handing a guy $100,000 is another.  This move comes in a day and age when minor leaguers are finally standing up and voicing their displeasure with how their salaries have drastically lagged behind the overall financial growth in our game.  I immediately thought of all the struggles you have as a minor leaguer — all of the two-bedroom apartments you end up sharing with five guys.  I would have killed for even a $5,000 bonus.

To see a team give a 29-year-old with no baseball experience a six-figure bonus because he was good at college football was confusing.  The road to “The Show” isn’t a walk in the park.  You don’t get to the big leagues as a 19th-rounder and stay without earning it.  It was a badge of honor for me.  This signing makes it seem that maybe teams don’t take the grind as seriously as the players do.  It sends a very mixed message.

As a minor leaguer you have to believe that talent wins the day.  That if you are talented enough, you’ll become a big leaguer.  Without that basic belief, you’d be crazy to spend a summer riding a bus from small town to small town, making less than $7,500 per season.

Whether the Mets signed Tebow because they believe in his baseball ability or because they want to sell jerseys is a mystery.  The whole nature of it, though, does nothing but cast doubt that talent will eventually win the day.  As I said before, I was somewhat angry when I saw the details of the signing.  I’m not angry with Tim Tebow.  He didn’t force any team to sign him.  As a player who defied the odds to carve out a career in the big leagues, my emotions were just another reminder that for guys like me, maybe our grind to the top isn’t as respected as we’d like to believe.

Ryan Spilborghs: Improving September Baseball

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Recently, I outlined the problem that September roster expansion poses for many players, coaches and managers. Though the focus now is on the postseason, CBA talks are nearing finalization, so now’s the time to address the subject. I have several suggestions on how to “fix” the competitive integrity in the month of September — along with the other issues I have mentioned.

To begin, the added depth and flexibility of September rosters does have some lessons. I believe first and foremost that a Major League season is too long and that the league should return to the 154-game season. It’s a physical grind to try to play 162 games in 183 days. I understand the revenue involved with TV rights, ticket and concession sales for each game, but other factors need to be considered as well.

Because our sport has made a significant effort to clean up the game with the banning of “amphetamines,” we have seen a dramatic decrease in players playing more than 135 games per season. I am by no means condoning the use of “greenies” to help players play more games — MLB should be commended for its efforts — but the use of the illegal drug was, at one point, simply a necessity for players to physically meet the demands of the game.

The onus on players is to play each game and produce; performance has always been judged by results and the ability to compete in each game. Good nutrition, proper sleep and body maintenance still make it nearly impossible for players to stay on the field in a capacity that is healthy. There is too much travel and there are too many games for these players to maintain a healthy lifestyle. I have the same argument when I view what the NFL has done to their players by adding Thursday night football. The demands of the game, coupled with short windows of recovery, force players to find “means” in which to compete, and those means sometimes toe the line of legality.

For baseball, I firmly believe it’s time to scale back the regular season. There is a precedent dating back to 1961, when baseball played 154 games, and returning to this schedule is imperative for the safety of the players.

In addition to that change, rosters for each MLB team needs to expand as well, from a 25-man roster to a 28-man roster. The increase in three players is significant enough to lighten the burden on starting pitching rotations and bullpens while also giving teams an extra bench player.

I understand that adding three players comes at a cost to Major League owners by increasing payroll, insurance, and pension, while also allowing more players to reach arbitration. However, the current situation harms the product that the league sells. It has been increasingly popular for teams to carry 13 members of the pitching staff, limiting many teams to a four-man bench. The shorter bench becomes a disadvantage (especially for National League teams) when a starting player is nursing a “day-to-day” injury; it becomes only a three-man bench while the injured player recovers.

Without the needed flexibility, the 15-day minimum disabled list stint means that regulars can be pushed harder than they should — possibly leading to more significant injuries — or be kept out longer than they ought to if a DL stint is required. An increased roster size could help prevent starting players from hitting the disabled lists while recovering, because teams will not have to worry about playing with a shorter bench. That would increase competition, especially when the games matter most down the stretch, and allow owners to keep their best players on the field longer.

Having the extra bench player could also allow National League teams can carry a DH-type of player over the course of the season, creating more excitement and helping to even the playing field for NL clubs competing in AL parks during interleague contests. When baseball moved the Houston Astros back to the American League, the NL and the AL were balanced out to include 15 teams apiece, but the byproduct became season-long interleague play.

There are more direct ways in which the financial shift could be offset, too. In order to make up lost revenue from subtracting eight games during the season, the postseason can expand to include a seven-game series after the initial Wild Card play-in games. Currently the division series is a five-game series. Adding two games can help offset some of the lost revenue, and a shorter regular season would leave plenty of flexibility to accommodate them. With some give in the schedule, baseball can also consider starting opening day later in April, or it can start the playoffs sooner so that the postseason doesn’t leak into November, thereby avoiding some of the weather challenges that arise on either spectrum of when season starts or finishes.

My final suggestion deals directly with September roster expansion. Under my proposal, teams would be able to call upon any members of their 40 man roster, but in a way that respects the integrity of the game is at stake in the season’s final month. It’s simple: only 28 of those players should be eligible for each game. Managers and front offices can determine which players will be the active roster on a given day, without being forced to follow the typical optional assignment rules. Pace of play in the month of September should increase, or at least stay status quo with the pace of the regular season, as opposed to games in which we see teams deploy 10 or more pitchers. To be fair to players that aren’t activated for a given night, no player would lose service time if they are placed in the pool of possible active roster members, and they would be allowed participate in all pregame work. The only detriment would be that they would simply not be allowed to dress for that night’s game.

Although this seems like a trite reason, having that many players on the bench during the game disrupts many players in-game behaviors, from warming up to finding a seat on the bench. For the final stretch run of the season, even the smallest of disrupted routines can be very important to players competing during the game.

I love September — the drama of the season unfolding, the surprise of a new player making their first mark, players and teams chasing down goals. My goal isn’t to subtract from that by any means, but to serve the best interests of Major League Baseball, its players and its coaching staffs, now and in the future. The final month of the season should not take place with changed personnel rules when history is at stake. Without taking away from a player earning a chance to compete at the Major League level in September, it needs to be recognized that we also should not take away from how the game is played for the previous five months. As great as the drama of September baseball already is, I would love nothing more than to see baseball implement some changes in the final wave of CBA negotiations to improve this game I so deeply care about.

Rule 5 Roundup

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We’re just a few months away from this winter’s Rule 5 draft, so it makes sense to take a look back and see how things shook out from the 2015 selections. Several organizations found useful players, even if the most recent class didn’t include an Odubel Herrera-esque breakout sensation. Some of the most recent draftees have probably locked up MLB jobs again for 2017, though others who stuck on a major league roster all year may head back to the minors for further development. (Once a player’s permanent control rights have been secured, his new organization is free to utilize optional assignments as usual for future years.)

Here’s a roundup of the 2015 draft class with the 2016 season in the books:

Keepers

  • Tyler Goeddel, OF, kept by Phillies from Rays: The 23-year-old struggled with the aggressive move to the big leagues, carrying a .192/.258/.291 batting line in 234 trips to the plate, but showed enough for the rebuilding Phillies to hold onto him all year long.
  • Luis Perdomo, RHP, kept by Padres (via Rockies) from Cardinals: It didn’t look good early for Perdomo, but he showed better after moving to the rotation and ended with a rather promising 4.85 ERA over twenty starts. Though he struggled to contain the long ball, and only struck out 6.4 per nine, Perdomo sported a nifty 59.0% groundball rate on the year.
  • Joey Rickard, OF, kept by Orioles from Rays: After opening the year with a bang, Rickard faded to a .268/.319/.377 batting line on the year but held his roster spot in Baltimore. He ended the season on the DL with a thumb injury, though, and may end up at Triple-A for some added seasoning.
  • Joe Biagini, RHP, kept by Blue Jays from Giants: The only Rule 5 pick to appear in the postseason, Biagini was a great find for Toronto. He ended with 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, and now looks like a potential fixture in the Jays’ relief corps.
  • Matthew Bowman, RHP, kept by Cardinals from Mets: Bowman rounds out a trio of impressive relievers. He contributed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 6.9 BB/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go with a monster 61.7% groundball rate.

Retained By Other Means

  • Deolis Guerra, RHP, re-signed by Angels (who selected him from Pirates) after being outrighted: Guerra was in an unusual spot since he had previously been outrighted off of the Bucs’ 40-man roster when he was selected, meaning he didn’t need to be offered back. Los Angeles removed him from the major league roster and then brought him back on a minor league deal, ultimately selecting his contract. Though he was later designated and outrighted by the Halos, Guerra again returned and largely thrived at the major league level, contributing 53 1/3 much-needed pen frames with a 3.21 ERA on the back of 6.1 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9.
  • Jabari Blash, OF, acquired by Padres (who acquired Rule 5 rights from Athletics) from Mariners: Blash’s intriguing tools weren’t quite ready for the majors, but San Diego struck a deal to hold onto him and was surely impressed with his showing at Triple-A. In his 229 plate appearances there, Blash swatted 11 home runs but — more importantly — carried a .415 OBP with a much-improved 66:41 K/BB ratio.
  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B, outrighted by Angels after Orioles declined return: The 25-year-old scuffled in the bigs but was rather impressive at the highest level of the minors, where he walked nearly as often as he struck out and put up a .346/.434/.527 slash with five home runs in 227 plate appearances.

Returned

  • Jake Cave, OF, returned from Reds to Yankees: After failing to crack Cinci’s roster out of camp, Cave impressed at Double-A but slowed at the highest level of the minors (.261/.323/.401 in 354 plate appearances) upon his return to the New York organization.
  • Evan Rutckyj, LHP, returned from Braves to Yankees: Sent back late in camp, the 24-year-old struggled in limited action on the Yanks’ farm after missing most of the season with elbow issues.
  • Josh Martin, RHP, returned from Padres to Indians: In his first attempt at Triple-A, Martin posted 66 frames of 3.55 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
  • Daniel Stumpf, LHP, returned from Phillies to Royals: Slowed by a PED suspension, Stumpf was bombed in a brief MLB stint with the Phils but dominated at Double-A upon his return to K.C., posting a 2.11 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
  • Chris O’Grady, LHP, returned from Reds to Angels: Sent back in late March, O’Grady compiled a 3.48 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the upper minors, though he performed much better as a Double-A starter than he did as a Triple-A reliever.
  • Zack Jones, RHP, returned from Brewers to Twins: The 25-year-old was out with a shoulder injury for most of the year, and ended up being sent back to Minnesota in late June, but has shown swing-and-miss stuff when healthy.
  • Blake Smith, RHP, returned from Padres to White Sox: Smith ended up making a brief MLB debut upon his return to Chicago, but spend most of the year pitching well at Triple-A Charlotte, where he ran up a 3.53 ERA in 71 1/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Colin Walsh, INF, returned from Brewers to Athletics: After struggling badly in his major league stint with the Brewers, Walsh went to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate and put up a .259/.384/.388 bating line over 245 plate appearances.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Phillies faded badly after a solid start to the 2016 campaign, and ultimately dealt with some ups and downs from important organizational assets. But with an increasingly massive gulf between the team’s commitments and its spending capacity, the build back toward contention may begin to feature investments in the major league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Matt Harrison, SP: $15MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.25MM club option for 2018)

Other Obligations

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Phillies Depth Chart; Phillies Payroll Information

With a big new TV contract backing a franchise that already has shown more capacity to spend than all but a few others, the Phillies have been a monster in waiting from the moment their veteran-laden roster took a downturn after the 2011 campaign — its last of five straight NL East title runs. But that was five seasons ago, and the rebuild has really only been undertaken in earnest over the last two years, leading president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak to continue preaching patience.

All told, despite essentially unrestrained spending capacity, the Phillies are unlikely to lock up too much future payroll space this winter. Klentak has consistently dampened any expectations of a free agent spending spree, and reports suggest instead that the club will look to the free agent and trade markets for some targeted additions — thus maintaining flexibility and keeping the books clear for future extensions and more promising open-market classes still to come.

That said, the Phils can’t be counted out for any free agents, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether the team will weigh a significant addition if it sees a chance at achieving good value and infusing some life into Citizens Bank Park. Certainly, there are a variety of roster spots that could stand to be improved.

The place to start, it seems, is the outfield, where only center is locked down. The remarkable Odubel Herrera has not only been the team’s best player in each of the last two years after being plucked in the Rule 5 draft, but improved significantly in plate discipline (nearly tripling his walks) and home run power (from eight to 15) in his second MLB campaign.

Otherwise, it’s open season. Though there are internal possibilities — now and in the near future — to account for, neither corner spot is spoken for. Cody Asche struggled and may well be a non-tender candidate. Aaron Altherr didn’t progress as hoped after missing a big chunk of the season. Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel will surely head to the minors for needed seasoning. The highly-rated Nick Williams scuffled at Triple-A, with 136 strikeouts against just 19 walks, so he’s probably headed back to Lehigh Valley. Good things happened at Double-A, where Dylan Cozens emerged with forty home runs and Andrew Pullin had a mini-breakout of his own, but neither player stands out as particularly likely to make the MLB roster out of camp. Roman Quinn did reach the majors after a solid showing at Reading, and could be a candidate for a roster spot, but he hasn’t shown much power and showed enough swing-and-miss in his brief MLB stint that more development may be in order.

That group, along with those deeper in the system, may come with enough promise that the Phillies won’t chase two multi-year outfield additions. But it seems reasonable to expect that the club will at least sign one established veteran to man a corner post for the next several years. There are a variety of options available, ranging from the probably-unrealistic Yoenis Cespedes to the steady Josh Reddick and relatively youthful left-handed hitters Michael Saunders and Colby Rasmus. We’ve heard some chatter connecting Ian Desmond to Philly, where presumably he’d play in left or even occupy a utility role at some point. Dangling a moderate guarantee with an opt-out to Carlos Gomez could be interesting. And if they like what they’ve seen, the Phillies could be in a nice position to take a shot on MLB-to-KBO success story Eric Thames (assuming he’d move back to the grass if he returns stateside). Odds are, the club will add at least two veterans, perhaps chasing a shorter-term deal with some upside on one player.

There’s far less work to be done in the infield, where most of the jobs are accounted for. Though he took a step back, Maikel Franco remains the future at third. Shortstop Freddy Galvis doesn’t get on base much, but put on a late-season power surge and showed plenty of glove to hold onto the everyday job. The expectation remains that he’s keeping the seat warm for top prospect J.P. Crawford, though Galvis’s strong finish and Crawford’s tepid batting line in his first run at Triple-A almost certainly makes that a mid-season debate. Looking at second, Cesar Hernandez somewhat quietly ended up having a big year, posting a .371 on-base percentage, fielding his position quite well, though he was gunned down in 13 of 30 stolen base attempts. The team will presumably either re-sign Andres Blanco, who has been surprisingly useful, or find another sturdy utility piece to fill things out.

There’s a bit more uncertainty at first and behind the plate, but that doesn’t mean there’s reason to expect any major action. With Ryan Howard set to follow Carlos Ruiz out the door, finally closing the book on the team’s stretch of excellence, the first base job seems set to go to Tommy Joseph — who battled through concussion issues that forced him out from the catching position. He swatted 21 home runs and posted a .257/.308/.505 batting line in 347 plate appearances, though he was much better with the platoon advantage and could end up being paired with a lefty slugger. Joseph’s emergence may push Darin Ruf off the roster.

In some regards, 28-year-old backstop Cameron Rupp was an even bigger surprise than Joseph. He posted league-average overall offensive numbers and whacked 16 long balls in his 419 trips to the plate, setting himself up as the primary receiver for 2017. A strike to bring back A.J. Ellis (who was acquired when Ruiz was traded) or add another one-year veteran wouldn’t be surprising. Regardless of where Joseph goes from here, the organization will want to see what it has sooner than later in top prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp, so a significant addition would be a surprise.

As for the pitching, it was two steps forward, one step back in many regards. Righty Aaron Nola is the chief example of that, as he showed immense promise — with 9.8 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 and a 55.2% groundball rate — even if a low strand rate (60.6%) helped crater his earned run average (4.78 over 111 innings). The big question, though, is whether he can work back from a UCL sprain or whether he’ll end up succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Vince Velasquez also dealt with arm troubles and inconsistency, but was dominant at times and ended up with 131 innings of 4.12 ERA ball. Forming the third piece of what could be a nice core was fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff, who has exceeded expectations (both of prospect observers and of ERA estimators) with 248 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA pitching since rising to the major league level in the middle of 2015.

How the Phils will account for the two or three remaining spots in the rotation remains to be seen. Charlie Morton figures to hit the open market after missing most of the year, unless he and the team see eye to eye on a mutual option or work something else out. Less-established starters Adam Morgan, Zach Eflin, and Jake Thompson all logged significant MLB innings, but none performed well enough to lock up a job (and Eflin will also be working back from surgery to both knees). Command artist Alec Asher was excellent in the upper minors before a PED suspension, and then got strong results in five major league starts upon his return, so he could factor in the club’s 2016 plans.

While there are options on hand, odds are the Phils will look to add at least one sturdy veteran. Jeremy Hellickson filled that role quite nicely after being acquired via trade, and it seems the team will be able to recoup a draft pick for its investment by issuing him a qualifying offer. Klentak will likely be looking to find at least one more solid rotation piece, whether by signing or trade. It seems reasonable to think that the team will again be willing to allocate a decent bit of money to that effort, so long as the contract doesn’t drag out too far into the future. Another strike similar to the trades for Hellickson and Morton would not surprise. There are some fairly costly pitchers with short-term control remaining (via arb or option) who could fit a generally similar profile, such as Drew Smyly, Hector Santiago, Jordan Lyles, Jaime Garcia, Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz, and even Tyson Ross — if he can show that he’s on an upward health trajectory, at least.

The bullpen, too, can be filled mostly from within, but the Phillies can also open up the late innings to outsiders who are interested in throwing high-leverage innings. Incumbent closer Jeanmar Gomez stumbled down the stretch, and could even draw non-tender consideration with his save tally inflating his earning power. But he was quite good for most of the year, seemingly wearing down in the course of another season of heavy usage. Hector Neris was the true eye-opener in 2016, and he’ll continue to play a significant role moving forward. Neris appears to be first in line for closing duties, though the club could dangle that opportunity in a bid to draw veteran free agents.

Filling things out will likely involve giving some chances to younger players while perhaps taking some shots on veterans — as the team did last year with David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and others. The Phils received interesting showings last year from live-armed young hurlers such as Edubray Ramos, Joely Rodriguez, and Severino Gonzalez, all of whom will factor at some point in 2017. Others — including Michael Mariot, Luis Garcia, and Phil Klein — could be kept on the 40-man for depth and given a chance to compete this spring. While Elvis Araujo and injury-addled Mario Hollands could compete for a chance to serve as a lefty option alongside Rodriguez, that’s certainly a plausible area for the club to target on the open market. All told, dropping a bit of cash on the bullpen would be an easy way to improve for the Phillies, but it would be exceedingly surprising were the club to play in the markets for the top available closers.

What’s not covered above, at least not directly, is the possibility of more creative action than we’ve seen of late. Klentak has thus far proceeded steadily — after all, most of the Phillies’ major veteran pieces were already gone when he took over — rather than engineering the kinds of bold swaps put together by the new-look Braves front office. But he also has far more financial might at his disposal, and already wielded it to add Hellickson, Morton, and Hernandez last winter. Whether it’s absorbing a big salary to facilitate the acquisition of a quality youngster, taking advantage of the team’s protected first-round pick to land a QO-bound free agent who slips through the cracks, or finding some other means of buying up talent, there figure to be many opportunities for Klentak to absorb this winter.

MLBTR Originals

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This week’s original features from MLBTR:

  • Matt Swartz and Tim Dierkes released their projected arbitration salaries for the upcoming winter, forecasting upward of 200 players’ earnings for 2017. Tim also broke the news of this year’s projected Super Two cutoff, and Steve Adams provided a detailed breakdown.
  • In the latest mailbag, Steve fielded questions on the Orioles’ outfield, free agent reliever Greg Holland, and which players will receive qualifying offers after the season.
  • The MLBTR staff continued this year’s Offseason Outlook series with the Reds, Rays and Braves.
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