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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After snapping a nine-year playoff drought a season ago, the Astros entered the 2016 campaign with championship aspirations. A dreadful April ultimately helped doom the Astros to a third-place finish in the American League West, but they still recorded their second straight winning season for the first time in a decade. Given the plethora of talent that’s already in place, a productive offseason from general manager Jeff Luhnow would restart the hype machine for Houston next spring.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Colby Rasmus, Doug Fister, Luis Valbuena, Jason Castro

Astros Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Information

At the outset of the season, the Astros had an enviable long-term core of position players consisting of second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa and right fielder George Springer. That group welcomed two new members during the summer in Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel. The arrival of the 22-year-old Bregman, whom the Astros chose second overall in the 2015 draft, wasn’t surprising. But the addition of Gurriel, 32, from outside the organization was an eye-opener. Houston won the much-hyped sweepstakes for the the longtime Cuban superstar in July, inking him to a five-year, $47.5MM pact.

Gurriel’s deal is the largest free agent contract the Astros have handed out since Jim Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. The Astros were in a rebuild in the first few years of Crane’s tenure, thus leading to limited payrolls – including a comically low $26MM and change in 2013. While the Astros have spent far more liberally of late, the $96MM-plus payroll with which they opened this year still ranked toward the bottom of the majors. In discussing his offseason plans earlier this month, Luhnow revealed that Houston aims to spend on outside acquisitions, saying, “We’re going to have the resources to go out and sign some players.”

The Luhnow-led Astros took a modest approach to free agency last winter, when the only multiyear deal they doled out went to reliever Tony Sipp (three years, $18MM). They also reeled in starter Doug Fister for $7MM and retained outfielder Colby Rasmus, who eschewed the open market in favor of the Astros’ $15.8MM qualifying offer. Those two are without contracts again, and after their mediocre performances this year, it’s doubtful Houston will re-sign either (Luhnow has all but said Rasmus’ tenure with the Astros is over).

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Projected Super Two Cutoff

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OCTOBER 26: The precise cutoff will be 2.131 years, Dierkes tweets. That means that most of the players noted below will fall short of qualifying, with Kiermaier representing one of the last to sneak into the arb process.

OCTOBER 10: We just published this year’s arbitration projections for all 30 teams this morning, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes follows that up with a report (Twitter link) that the projected Super Two cutoff for this year’s class is expected to fall between two years, 127 days of MLB service time (2.127) and two years, 131 days (2.131). Players who qualify for “Super Two” designation — that is, the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — will be eligible for arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three that the rest of the league will qualify. That can have significant financial implications for both teams and players, and one needs only to look to this morning’s arbitration projections for proof of that point.

For instance, players such as David Peralta (2.120 years of service, $1.6MM projected salary), Rougned Odor (2.121, $4MM) and Dan Straily (2.126, $3.9MM) would fall a bit shy, as would Jesus Sucre ($600K) and Chase Whitley ($900K). In the case of a team like the Reds or Rangers, there’s already in the vicinity of $4MM at stake, and because future all future arbitration salaries are based on prior earnings, there’s a compounding effect at play as well. Super Two status also impacts extension talks, which the Rangers have reportedly explored with Odor’s camp. With Odor likely to fall shy of Super Two status, the Rangers needn’t offer quite as much as they would have had to were Odor slated to be arbitration-eligible four times, as his year-to-year earnings will be a bit lesser with only three trips through the arbitration process.

Meanwhile, players like Brett Oberholtzer (2.127, $1MM) and Kevin Kiermaier (2.131, $2.1MM) will see their earnings increase at least twofold in 2017 (if the lower end of the spectrum holds true, with regards to Oberholtzer). In Kiermaier’s case, he’d stand to roughly quadruple his salary by virtue of qualifying as a Super Two player.

This year’s cutoff, then, will fall pretty closely in line with the cutoffs we’ve seen over the past two years:

  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Last year’s Super Two class took players like Kole Calhoun ($3.4MM), Didi Gregorius ($2.425MM), Anthony Rendon ($2.8MM) and, most notably, Nolan Arenado ($5MM), and jump-started their earning power in significant fashion. As can be seen in the above-linked projections, the largest beneficiaries of this year’s Super Two cutoff figure to be George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Danny Salazar, Matt Shoemaker, Sam Dyson and Marcus Stroman — each of whom is projected to take home north of $3.5MM in his first of what will now be four trips through arbitration eligibility.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Their rebuild underway, the Brewers will spend the offseason entertaining offers for Ryan Braun and trying to find players capable of filling spots until reinforcements arrive from the minors.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Braun, OF: $76MM through 2020 (includes $4MM buyout on $15MM mutual option for 2021)
  • Matt Garza, SP: $12.5MM through 2017 (plus club/vesting option for 2018)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Brewers Depth Chart; Brewers Payroll Information

The Brewers spent 2016 taking advantage of the biggest asset rebuilding teams have that contending teams don’t: the ability to use playing time to evaluate players on the fringes. That process got them good seasons from infielder Jonathan Villar, outfielder Keon Broxton and pitchers Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, as well as lesser but still productive years from infielders Hernan Perez and Chris Carter and pitchers Jacob Barnes and Jhan Marinez.

The Brewers therefore appear to have options that are at least reasonable at many key positions. Guerra and Davies look set for the Brewers’ rotation, with the team also having Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta in tow. (Peralta could be a non-tender candidate following an underwhelming season in which he posted a 4.86 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9, but he performed well in the big leagues down the stretch after a stint in the minors, so it might be more likely the Brewers keep him.) In the bullpen, there’s new closer Tyler Thornburg, along with Carlos Torres, Rob Scahill and Corey Knebel.

That isn’t the core of a good team, but GM David Stearns and the Brewers likely don’t expect to be good right now. Instead, they’ll wait on new arrivals from their highly regarded farm system, and continue to try to sort out who among their current big-leaguers will be able to help their higher-upside young players.

At catcher, the Brewers will likely retain Martin Maldonado, who batted .202 and slugged .351 but with a respectable .332 OBP last season. Maldonado profiles as a backup, but the team still likely won’t pursue an established starter at the position, instead likely preferring to get looks at Andrew Susac, who they acquired when they shipped Will Smith to the Giants. The 26-year-old Susac struggled to get his big-league career going, but he’s generally hit well in the minors and still only has 1,660 career professional plate appearances since being drafted in 2011. He could benefit from more regular playing time.

In the infield, the Brewers will probably keep Carter at first, although it’s not out of the question they’ll trade or even non-tender him, since the arbitration process will value him more for his gaudy home run totals than his obvious weaknesses. Considering non-tendering a player coming off a 41-homer season may seem crazy, but Carter’s 2016 was worth just 0.9 fWAR, and his career 31.9% strikeout rate, .218 batting average and -29 Defensive Runs Saved mean he has to hit home runs at a furious pace to be more valuable than the $8.1MM salary we project he’ll receive. The Brewers have suggested Carter will return, although that isn’t yet certain.

Assuming Carter is back, he’ll presumably have the speedy Villar next to him at second base, since the team has said it prefers not to use Villar at third. That could leave Scooter Gennett without a job. Gennett’s .263/.317/.412 line in 2016 placed him near replacement level for the second consecutive year, partially because of his defense, which advanced metrics rate as mediocre. Perhaps the team could retain him and shift him to third, but it’s probably more likely he’ll be traded to a team with a big hole at second base, or perhaps non-tendered. Villar spent much of 2016 at shortstop, but well-regarded youngster Orlando Arcia will likely man the position next season.

The Brewers’ plans for third base are less clear. Perez played well while manning third part-time last year, batting .272/.302/.428 with 34 steals. His track record, though, suggests that a repeat of those numbers is unlikely, and he might profile better as a super-utility type anyway (which would still mean he’ll wind up with plenty of playing time).

That could leave the Brewers hunting for someone to play the hot corner.  An up-market player like Justin Turner seems highly unlikely. Someone like Luis Valbuena (who was previously in the Astros organization with Stearns and several current Brewers players) would make sense, particularly given that he bats left-handed and would help balance the Brewers’ very righty-heavy lineup. The team could also pursue a short-term veteran option like Kelly Johnson or old friend Aaron Hill. Johnson would make a certain amount of sense, since he and Perez could potentially form an effective platoon. Alternately, the Brewers could hunt for a trade option, or a non-tendered player, hoping to find a bit of upside, just as they did last season when they signed Will Middlebrooks to a minor league pact.

Ryan BraunThe complexion of the Brewers’ 2017 outfield will depend in large part on the potential Braun deal — the move, or non-move, that will define their offseason. Following their trades of Yovani Gallardo, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Jonathan Broxton, Gerardo Parra, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind, Jean Segura, Khris Davis, Aaron Hill, Jeremy Jeffress, Jonathan Lucroy and Smith in recent years, Braun is one of the few valuable veterans the Brewers have left. Their return if, or when, they do finally trade him could go a long way to determining how they fare in the near future.

Braun batted .305/.365/.538 last season in his best offensive performance since 2012, so this winter would seem like an ideal time for a deal. Last summer, the Brewers and Dodgers reportedly seriously discussed a swap involving Braun, with Yasiel Puig, Brandon McCarthy and prospects heading to Milwaukee. It’s unclear how close that trade was to actually occurring, but it seems the two sides will revisit the deal this offseason, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Braun in Dodger blue in 2017.

The value of the Brewers’ side of the deal would, of course, depend fairly heavily on the prospects involved, but the inclusion of Puig and McCarthy already makes the trade an interesting one from the Brewers’ perspective. Part of the Dodgers’ likely intention in including those players was to offset Braun’s salary, since Puig and McCarthy are set to make a combined $39.5MM through 2018. But neither Puig nor McCarthy fits the usual profile of a salary dumpee. The Brewers would get to gamble on the 25-year-old Puig’s upside, which remains considerable despite his trip to the minors last season. They would also get a solid veteran arm (albeit one who’s only recently come back from Tommy John surgery) for their rotation. McCarthy is only two years removed from pitching 200 innings with a terrific 2.85 xFIP and 52.6% ground-ball rate.

Should the Brewers be unable to consummate a Braun deal with the Dodgers, they would have no shortage of other trade suitors (although Braun’s limited no-trade clause could be a problem — as of earlier this year, he could block deals to all teams except the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins). The Giants and Braves have reportedly also had interest in Braun, and it’s likely other teams would as well. While acquiring someone like Puig in return for Braun makes sense, the Brewers don’t need to get an outfielder in a Braun deal, since they have a remarkable group of outfield prospects (including Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell and, lower in the minors, Corey Ray and Trent Clark).

Elsewhere in the Brewers outfield, Broxton had an outstanding second half, demonstrating plus speed and defense while batting a remarkable .294/.399/.538 before missing the last two weeks of the season due to a fractured wrist. At 26, Broxton was old for a rookie. His minor league record doesn’t suggest he can maintain the level of productivity he demonstrated in 2016, and it’s possible the wrist injury could affect him going forward. Nonetheless, his legs and glove give him a high floor, and he should be an easy choice to start in center field for the Brewers next season.

In right field, the Brewers will likely continue to give looks to Domingo Santana, with Perez potentially filling in the gaps if Santana struggles. Santana batted a respectable .256/.345/.447. Like Carter, he’s a big man who strikes out excessively and has no defensive value. Nonetheless, he warrants continued playing time, since he’s only 24 and has shown significant power potential.

It makes sense for the Brewers to keep Kirk Nieuwenhuis as a backup outfielder, given that he’ll likely cost less than $2MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Like many Brewers, Nieuwenhuis piles up his share of whiffs and has low batting averages. He’ll take a walk, though, and he plays all three outfield positions well and hits left-handed.

The Brewers could also aim to acquire a bit of rotation help this offseason. Of their current rotation options, only Guerra and Nelson look like much more than back-of-the-rotation types, and it’s not clear what even Nelson will become following a disappointing 2016. Nelson led the NL in walks in 2016, and if his control problems continue, it’s not hard to imagine he could wind up back at Triple-A at some point next season, since he’s optionable.

While the Brewers do have some starting pitching prospects (topped by lefty Josh Hader) who could make an impact at some point in 2017, their current group possesses limited upside and considerable downside — it’s easy to imagine the Brewers’ rotation becoming a real mess if, say, the physically slight Davies got hurt and Garza had a season more like 2015 than 2016. With Sean Nolin out for 2017 following Tommy John surgery, their depth is somewhat limited, too. The organization almost certainly won’t pursue a high-end starting pitcher, but an innings-eater might make sense. The team could also look for a high-risk, high-upside option (someone like Andrew Cashner, perhaps) in an attempt to emulate the Athletics’ success flipping Rich Hill last season. The addition of McCarthy in a potential Braun trade would also obviously help.

The Brewers already have plenty of bullpen arms to sort through, including several, like Marinez, Barnes and Knebel, who possess considerable velocity. They do, however, look likely to pursue a left-hander or two, perhaps on a minor league deal. The only healthy southpaw currently on their 40-man roster is Brent Suter, who has just 21 2/3 career innings of big-league experience and who’s mostly a starter anyway.

Whatever happens, the Brewers don’t appear likely to contend in 2017. There is, however, plenty of evidence that their rebuild is going well. They won 73 games last season, not a bad total for an organization mostly trying to address long-term goals. Their farm system is now much stronger than it was just a year and a half ago, when Baseball America rated it 19th-best in the game — thanks to a couple years of high draft picks and trades for young talent, the organization now has enviable prospect depth, and Arcia is just the first of what should be a long series of high-upside Brewers rookies. 2017 won’t be a pretty season for the Brewers, but there’s talent in Milwaukee, and more on the way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a pair of World Series appearances in 2014-15, the 2016 Royals fell shy of a postseason berth and now face considerable payroll questions as the core of their championship-winning roster stands one year from free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ian Kennedy, RHP: $62.5MM through 2020 (can opt out of contract after 2017)
  • Alex Gordon, LF: $60MM through 2020 (including buyout of 2021 mutual option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $46.5MM through 2021
  • Yordano Ventura, RHP: $20.25MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 club option)
  • Joakim Soria, RHP: $18MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Lorenzo Cain, CF: $11MM through 2017
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B; $8.7MM through 2017
  • Jason Vargas, LHP: $8MM through 2017
  • Chris Young, RHP: $7.25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 mutual option)
  • Mike Minor, LHP: $5.25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 mutual option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Kendrys Morales, DH/1B: $11MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
  • Wade Davis, RHP: $10MM club option ($2.5MM buyout)
  • Edinson Volquez, RHP: $10MM mutual option ($3MM buyout)
  • Kris Medlen, RHP: $10MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
  • Luke Hochevar, RHP: $7MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
  • Alcides Escobar, SS: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Predictions: Team exercises option on Morales, but Morales declines; team exercises option on Davis; team declines option on Volquez; team declines option on Medlen; team declines option on Hochevar; team exercises option on Escobar

Other Financial Commitments

  • Omar Infante, 2B: $10MM through 2017 (was released in 2016)

Free Agents

Royals Depth Chart; Royals Payroll Information

The Royals’ back-to-back World Series appearances revitalized Kansas City baseball, but as is often the case, success proved difficult to sustain. With an 81-81 finish on the season and players like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar all set to hit free agency following the 2017 season, the Royals have a plethora of questions on their hands.

First and foremost is whether the team can afford to make any significant additions this winter. General manager Dayton Moore flatly said that his expectation was that the team’s payroll would “regress” in 2017 after opening the 2016 campaign with a franchise-record mark of nearly $132MM. Meanwhile, team owner David Glass was less definitive when asked about reducing payroll, somewhat nebulously suggesting that it’s impossible to know where the 2017 payroll will sit because no one yet knows what opportunities will be presented in the coming offseason. As noted in the above-linked payroll breakdown at Roster Resource, though, the Royals already project to have a $139MM payroll to open next season. The notion of adding any significant pieces is somewhat difficult to anticipate, then, unless Glass is comfortable with the ledger rising into the $140MMs and possibly the $150MMs.

As such, the question becomes one of whether the Royals will actually subtract some pieces from the 2016 roster. Davis’ name was mentioned frequently in July before a forearm strain shelved him through the non-waiver trade deadline, and Kansas City has reportedly already received some early interest in its closer. Late-inning relief help is one of the few commodities that is in relatively large supply this winter — Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon are all free agents, and the market also bears some quality setup options as well — but Davis’ contractual status is likely an attractive feature. Many teams will be reluctant to pay the record-breaking prices that the top names will command. Acquiring Davis would yield a premium relief arm with only a one-year, $10MM commitment required. Of the core pieces that could potentially leave after the 2017 season, Davis arguably has the most trade appeal if Moore and his staff do shed some big league talent/payroll.

Wade Davis

Certainly, teams would have interest in Cain, Moustakas, Hosmer and Escobar, but there are concerns across the board with that quartet. Cain missed more than two months of the season and ended the year on the shelf with a wrist strain. Moustakas didn’t play the final four months due to a torn ACL. Hosmer’s productivity tanked in the second half, and he’s projected to earn a hefty $13.3MM next year. Escobar continued to impress with the glove and on the bases, but he’s a defense-first player with no power and sub-.300 OBP skills. Looking elsewhere, Ian Kennedy had a strong finish but is on a contract that is teeming with downside (he can opt out after the 2017 season if he performs well but would be owed a total of $62.5MM over the next four years if he struggles and forgoes that opportunity). Jason Vargas’ $8MM salary is fairly manageable, but he missed the majority of 2016 recovering from 2015 Tommy John surgery.

Those names could all come up in trade talks this winter, but it’s also important to note that a full-on fire sale doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the Royals. After all, improved performance from Alex Gordon and returns to health for any combination of Cain, Davis, Moustakas and Vargas would represent an immediate means of improvement in Kansas City. And with the Tigers suggesting that they’ll trim payroll while the White Sox and Twins continue to struggle to put contending teams on the field, there’s certainly reason for Moore and his staff to believe that this core is capable of a final push for the division in 2017. If it doesn’t go as planned, plenty of those names would make appealing deadline chips, after all.

On that note, there’s no more obvious area of need for the 2017 Royals than in the rotation. Breakout star Danny Duffy figures to lead that group, and he’ll be joined by Yordano Ventura, Kennedy, Vargas and one of Chris Young, Mike Minor or sophomore Matt Strahm, who wowed in the bullpen but is viewed as a starter in the long haul. Dillon Gee, too, could factor into the mix, but he’s coming off thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and could be a non-tender candidate.

Unfortunately for the Royals, they’re faced with the same dilemma that is facing most other clubs; everyone needs starting pitching, but the free-agent market is relatively barren. Despite that fact, Kansas City reportedly plans to opt against investing an additional $7MM into Edinson Volquez and will elect a $3MM buyout over exercising his $10MM option. That may indicate that the team doesn’t plan to spend big money on starting pitching, so minor league deals or lower-cost targets like Tommy Milone, Bud Norris or Jhoulys Chacin could be in order. Alternatively, the Royals could look to sign a pitcher to a two-year pact but heavily backload the deal so as to only commit a few million in 2017 while saving the bulk of the payout for the 2018 season, when the books clear up.

The other half of the pitching staff will need some work, too — especially if the Royals do ultimately find an offer for Davis that is to their liking. Kelvin Herrera is a dominant late-inning arm, but Joakim Soria’s return to the team has been somewhat of a flop so far. Strahm could reprise his role if the Royals feel they have ample rotation depth, and the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd recently highlighted fast-rising prospect Josh Staumont as a potential midseason factor from the right side. Brian Flynn proved a useful southpaw (2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings), but the Royals are going to need to find some arms either within their system or late in the offseason. From Kansas City’s vantage point, there’s merit to the idea of waiting out the market and snatching up one or even two of the middle relievers/setup men that fall through the cracks while waiting for bigger deals that never materialize. It’s also worth noting that there’s reportedly been mutual interest between the Royals and righty Peter Moylan about a new contract, so he could return on a one-year deal.

Looking around the diamond, the Royals are more set. Salvador Perez remains one of the best catchers in baseball, Hosmer is locked in at first base despite his second-half collapse, Moustakas will return to the hot corner and Escobar is penciled in at shortstop (once his option is exercised). Gordon will hope for better results at the plate in the second season of his now-troublesome-looking four-year, $72MM deal, and Cain will continue to hold down the fort in center field (though there’s been some talk of occasional time in right to help keep his hamstring healthier). With Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando representing options for the remaining outfield spot, the Royals don’t necessarily need to look there, although an upgrade to the right-handed side of the platoon wouldn’t hurt. Orlando is one baseball’s least disciplined hitters and owes his solid batting line almost entirely to a .380 BABIP that he can’t be expected to repeat. Dyson, meanwhile, doesn’t hit much but is a defensive wizard and provides huge value on the bases, which led to 3.1 rWAR and fWAR. If he can maintain 2016’s K/BB improvements, he’s a solid and affordable option.

Second base and DH are the other two potential spots to add some talent, but the Royals do have options at second in Christian Colon, Whit Merrifield and Raul Mondesi Jr. (though the latter of that group seems likely to head to Triple-A for continued work at shortstop so he can prepare to take over for Escobar at shortstop in 2018). Like Orlando, Merrifield got by with some significant BABIP fortune (.361) but showed little plate discipline and virtually no power. Colon’s glove can handle the job, but his bat looked an awful lot like that of Omar Infante last season, whom the Royals released midway through his ill-fated four-year deal. Kansas City would be a nice fit for Chase Utley on a one-year deal, but the Royals could also hope to snatch a veteran second baseman late in the winter on a minor league deal or a lower-cost one-year pact.

As for the DH slot, the first question facing the Royals will be whether to tender a qualifying offer to Kendrys Morales. Given the financial uncertainties surrounding the roster, that seems unlikely, as adding a $17.2MM commitment for a strict DH would shoot the team’s estimated 2017 payroll to nearly $160MM. The free-agent market does feature a number of somewhat redundant first base/DH types; Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison and even Ryan Howard are all available, and it’s unlikely that they’ll all find lucrative deals. Grabbing one of those players on an affordable one-year pact makes some sense, but the DH spot could simply be kept open to help Moustakas and others get some days off from fielding. That would not only help to keep them healthier and also give the Royals a means by which Cheslor Cuthbert could get into the lineup, though the 24-year-old did fade down the stretch.

Ultimately, the Royals are in a somewhat unenviable spot — stuck in the middle between contention and a need to rebuild. They probably feel this is their last shot at contending with this core, but there are myriad holes throughout the lineup and few ways to patch them without sending payroll soaring into uncharted and unsustainable territory. The Royals reportedly operated at a loss this season, so tacking on tens of millions more to the payroll isn’t a sound business decision. But, their means of plugging holes with homegrown talent took a hit when they used a solid-but-not-overly-deep farm system to acquire Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist in 2015. Those trades subtracted four pitchers — Sean Manaea, Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and John Lamb — that could otherwise be immediate rotation options for a club that now finds itself with an unreliable mix of starters. You’ll never hear the Royals or their fans complain about it, of course, as the 2015 World Series outweighs any long-term troubles for the franchise. Nonetheless, a poor start to the 2017 season could be the precursor for a summer sale, and even if the Royals are able to contend in the AL Central next year, this is a franchise that is destined for a significant amount of turnover beginning next winter, at the latest, when its core hits the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With some key position players hitting free agency and a still-unsettled rotation, the Orioles are looking at another busy offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview

It’s probably safe to assume that the Orioles aren’t going to drop another $243MM on free agents this offseason.  Last winter’s club-record splurge may have been more or less a one-time-only expenditure, as most of that spending went towards keeping a cornerstone piece (Chris Davis) in the fold.

That being said, it would be unusual for owner Peter Angelos to close the wallet altogether just a year later, especially since the O’s made it back to the postseason (albeit just as far as the wild card game).  With a number of roster holes that need to be addressed, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette will likely need some cash to again dip into the free agent market, or be creative on the trade front given the Orioles’ lack of attractive minor league trade depth.

The O’s have just under $96MM committed to only eight players for 2017, plus a projected $50.1MM to their ten-player arbitration class.  Even if you shave off the salaries of the possible non-tenders, so Baltimore is looking at over $141MM (almost the size of its 2016 Opening Day payroll) for 15 players.  In short, the Orioles will surely set a new franchise high for payroll, unless they free up some money in trades.

Given the near-historic weakness of this year’s free agent pitching market, it’s not out of the question that the O’s could shop Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo or Wade Miley.  All three starters are under contract only through 2017, so it’s possible another club could take a one-year (or longer, since Gallardo and Miley are under club options for 2018) flier on any of the pitchers.

Of course, Baltimore wouldn’t be selling high on any of the three since Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo are all coming off rough seasons.  Jimenez was briefly removed from the rotation in August but pitched quite well down the stretch once he got his starting job back.  Miley’s advanced metrics hint that he pitched better in his 11 starts as an Oriole than his 6.17 ERA would indicate, though he is still waiting on that breakout season.  Gallardo’s first year in Baltimore was essentially a disaster, punctuated by two trips to the DL, a 5.42 ERA and just 0.6 fWAR over 118 innings.

Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman are locked in the top two rotation spots, so it seems like the O’s would have to move one of their other three veterans to create room for Dylan Bundy.  Returning after missing three full MLB seasons to injury, Bundy worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2016 but showed glimpses of his potential when shifted to the rotation later in the year.  Bundy’s health history could keep him on an innings limit, but the Orioles are going to give their former first-rounder every chance to stick in the rotation.  Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo could be fighting amongst themselves for the last two starting jobs, with the loser going to the bullpen (though none are seen as ideal candidates to do so) or perhaps to another team in a trade.

Then again, dealing a starter may not be a great idea for a team that is itself looking for pitching upgrades.  Could the Orioles look into adding a free agent pitcher?  It isn’t a great winter to be looking for starters, so barring a trade, it’s more probable that Baltimore hangs onto its own mid-tier rotation options rather than sign another one.  That said, the O’s waited until pretty late into the offseason to sign both Jimenez and Gallardo, as both pitchers saw their markets hampered by the qualifying offer.  That tactic probably won’t work this winter (Jeremy Hellickson is likely to be the only free agent starter who receives a qualifying offer), though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Duquette check in on any notable starters still lingering on the market in February.

The other end of the pitching equation has far fewer issues, as the Orioles fielded one of the league’s best bullpens.  Even with longtime setup man Darren O’Day battling injuries for much of the year, the relief corps still posted excellent numbers thanks to workhorses Brad Brach and Mychal Givens, and the all-timer of a season delivered by closer Zach Britton.

With Britton’s value at an all-time high and the closer projected for a hefty $11.4MM arbitration salary, Britton himself recently discussed the possibility that the O’s could trade him as they did ex-closer Jim Johnson when Johnson’s price tag got too high.  With so many other star relievers (Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon) available in free agency and the Royals potentially considering a Wade Davis trade, the closing market is already pretty crowded this winter.  On the other hand, big spenders like the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Giants, Rangers and Yankees will all be looking for bullpen upgrades and at least some of those teams will be left empty-handed in the free agent frenzy and the Davis sweepstakes.

The issue with trading Britton, of course, is that the O’s would be weakening their clearest strength.  The bullpen’s dominance helped account for a lot of flaws around the roster — the middling rotation, a below-average defense and even a lineup that relied too much on the long ball.  Baltimore hit a league-best 253 homers last season but managed just a .317 OBP.  While an above-average club on the basepaths as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, the Orioles combined for just 19 steals in 2016, easily the fewest of any team and fewer than 28 individual players.

The infield core of Davis, Jonathan Schoop, J.J. Hardy and superstar Manny Machado will remain intact, and long-time franchise stalwart Adam Jones will return in center field, even if his glovework in center took a big step backwards.  Hyun Soo Kim went from looking overmatched in Spring Training to delivering a very solid first season in the majors, but he didn’t record a hit in just 22 plate appearances against southpaws. He will return as the lefty-swinging side of a platoon in either left field or potentially designated hitter.  (Rookies Trey Mancini and Christian Walker are both right-handed bats that could platoon with Kim at DH, and Walker is a possible option in left as well.)

That leaves lots of room around the diamond for the Orioles to add speed, athleticism and better all-around batting.  If the O’s would still prefer pure power over these attributes, however, they could look to re-sign Mark Trumbo.  The slugger hit .256/.316/.533 with a league-high 47 homers over 667 plate appearances, though aside from all this thump, Trumbo brought little else in average, OBP or defensive value.  He also slumped badly in the second half and had unusual splits (.932 OPS against right-handers, .608 OPS against lefties) for a right-handed batter whose numbers against all pitchers had been pretty even entering 2016.

Trumbo’s big power year will ensure that the O’s issue him a qualifying offer, so the team will be in line for a first-round draft pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.  It’s hard to let 47 homers walk out the door, though on a team with so much pop already on the roster, Trumbo seems somewhat expendable.  The O’s could collect a much-needed draft pick and replace Trumbo with a more well-rounded player in right field.

Of the other Oriole free agents, Steve Pearce or Nolan Reimold could be fits as platoon partners for Kim, with Pearce potentially serving as an everyday option given how well he has hit both lefties and righties in two of the last three seasons.  Pearce isn’t a defensive whiz at any position but he is versatile, seeing time at first, second, third, left and right with the Rays and Orioles in 2016.  Pearce is liable to receive a lot of free agent attention despite the fact that his recovery from forearm surgery could stretch into Spring Training, though one could assume that his familiarity with Baltimore could give the O’s something of an edge over most other teams. Late-season addition Michael Bourn impressed the team and is open to a return, though that would likely mean setting up another platoon situation in right field.

Extension talks with Pedro Alvarez went nowhere in September, so while a reunion could still occur, Alvarez is another power-only player that the O’s may feel comfortable letting go — particularly since he, too, is mostly limited to facing right-handed pitching. If both Alvarez and Trumbo depart, the Orioles simply look to obtain the next Alvarez and Trumbo — players with big power and whose defensive shortcomings could be masked in the DH role.  Between Alvarez, Trumbo and Nelson Cruz, the O’s have had great success in recent years in acquiring productive sluggers at relatively low prices.

With both corner spots and the DH spot essentially open aside from Kim, the Orioles have lots of options in a free agent market deep in all three areas.  They could sign a pure platooner like Rajai Davis (who also brings sorely-needed base-stealing ability) to pair with Kim in left, then go after an everyday right fielder like longtime division rival Jose Bautista.  Signing a versatile player such as Ian Desmond could check off a number of boxes — he could be shifted to right field for his regular position, while occasionally spelling Jones in center or Hardy at shortstop.

As I mentioned earlier, the Orioles aren’t likely to break the bank in free agency again, but perhaps they could afford to sign one big-ticket player and one mid-range free agent to fill some of these holes.  Adding Desmond, Bautista or other free agents who reject qualifying offers would require the Orioles to surrender their first-round pick.  Giving up what is currently the 23rd overall pick might not be a big concern since Baltimore could be getting two compensatory picks back for their own QO free agents in Trumbo and Matt Wieters.

Of course, the Orioles probably thought they had an extra pick coming their way last year before Wieters surprised many by actually accepting his one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer.  Wieters’ attempt at boosting his stock with a big platform year in 2016 didn’t entirely work out, as he managed to stay healthy but hit only .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers over 464 PA.  Wieters may still be in line for a solid multi-year deal as the top free agent catcher available in the wake of Wilson Ramos’ knee surgery, or he could again choose to stay in a familiar spot and accept a large (if one-year) payday in the hopes that 2017 will be that long-desired platform year.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently outlined the pros and cons of issuing another QO to Wieters, as the Orioles have to weigh the risk of paying $17.2MM for a catcher who looked pretty average (or even on the decline) last season against the benefit of adding a draft pick if Wieters rejects the qualifying offer and departs.  This one decision will have a big impact on the rest of Baltimore’s offseason moves; the club will have much less to spend on other needs if $17.2MM in payroll space is being used on Wieters.

If Wieters does leave, the Orioles will have a big vacancy to fill behind the plate.  Caleb Joseph was tentatively set to be the 2016 starter before Wieters accepted the QO, though Joseph is no longer a regular option following a desultory season.  Joseph hit a measly .174/.216/.197, recording such astonishing offensive lows as a 6 wRC+ and zero RBI over his 141 PA.  At the very least, Joseph did provide good framing and defensive numbers, so he’s still in the mix as the backup.

Top catching prospect Chance Sisco may be ready to make his big league debut in 2017, though he’s still quite young (Sisco turns 22 in February) and still something of a defensive question mark.  There’s no guarantee the O’s can count on Sisco even for Opening Day 2018, so they could need more than a one-year stopgap to start ahead of Joseph.  The O’s could focus solely on defense by signing someone like Jason Castro, essentially punting on offense from the catcher’s spot since the rest of the lineup is so strong.  Former Oriole Nick Hundley is another possibility, though Hundley is a defensive liability.

Longtime utilityman Ryan Flaherty could be non-tendered despite a pretty modest $1.7MM projected arbitration salary, as the O’s could probably re-sign Flaherty at a lower price.  If Flaherty isn’t brought back, the Orioles will need a new backup infielder, though Machado’s ability to play both third and short gives them some flexibility.

Speaking of Machado, it seems likely that Duquette will again broach the idea of an extension with the 24-year-old this offseason.  Duquette was rather circumspect when discussing extension negotiation plans with Machado, Tillman, Britton or Schoop, though of that group, there’s little question that locking up Machado is Baltimore’s biggest long-term priority.  It would likely take well over $250MM to make a Machado extension happen given his age and spectacular track record, and that kind of expenditure could obviously impact how much the Orioles plan to spend on new talent this offseason.  The O’s have quite a bit of future payroll flexibility, however, as Davis and O’Day are the only players committed money beyond the 2018 season.  Like most extensions, a Machado deal may not occur or begin to be negotiated until after the rest of the offseason business is done, so we may have to wait until Spring Training for more news on the that front.

Beyond just helping to score a wild card berth, the Orioles’ spending spree of a year ago showed that Angelos is again ready to pay top dollar to retain and obtain talent.  Baltimore doesn’t have as many key pieces hitting free agency this winter as it did in 2015, so this offseason’s most notable moves could consist of bringing some new faces to Camden Yards.  The Orioles’ mixture of innings-eating starting pitching, sluggers and great bullpen work only got them so far in 2016, so some further roster maneuvering is still needed to keep the O’s in the playoff hunt.

Should The Orioles Give Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?

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Forty-nine weeks ago, Matt Wieters became the second player to ever accept a qualifying offer from his team (following Colby Rasmus, who accepted a day prior). The move came as somewhat of a surprise at the time, as despite a lackluster season that was slowed by injuries, Wieters was poised to hit the market as the top available catcher. The former No. 5 overall pick and agent Scott Boras elected to instead take a one-year, $15.8MM offer, however, which afforded Wieters with the chance to further reestablish his health. While he succeeded in that effort to some extent, the 2016 season came with mixed results overall.

Matt Wieters

Wieters, 31 next May, tallied 464 plate appearances over the life of 124 games. While that’s a low total relative to his most durable years, the Orioles shielded Wieters early in the season from playing on consecutive days and were cautious in building him to the point where he would even catch on three consecutive days. Wieters did just so for the first time this past season in June, and by September he’d built up to the point that he at one point drew starts behind the plate on six consecutive days. In that regard, Wieters was able to demonstrate that he’s physically capable of handling a notable workload behind the plate — something he was unable to show in 2016 when he caught back-to-back games on just four occasions. Certainly that show of durability improves his free agent stock this winter.

On the other hand, Wieters’ overall production at the plate deteriorated this season. He saw his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all decrease along with his walk rate, and while he improved his strikeout rate from 23.8 percent to 18.3 percent, Wieters also nearly doubled his infield-fly rate. After popping up just four times in 282 PAs last year, Wieters popped out 17 times in this year’s 464 PAs — and those infield flies are every bit as detrimental as a strikeout, as they’re effectively a wasted at-bat and a guaranteed out. Park-adjusted metrics OPS+ and wRC+ agreed last season that Wieters’ bat was roughly league average (101 — or one percent above the league average), whereas this season he was markedly below the league average (88 wRC+, 87 OPS+ or 12 and 13 percent below average, respectively). He did belt 17 home runs, but he hit just 17 doubles and overall managed a pedestrian .243/.302/.409 batting line. That’s about league average for a catcher, but as noted before, it’s a far cry from average relative to the entire league.

On the defensive side of things, Wieters threw out 35 percent of opponents trying to steal against the Orioles’ pitching staff while he was behind the plate — an encouraging outcome for a catcher that had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and dealt with elbow tendinitis last year — but he once again drew poor marks in the eyes of pitch framing metrics. Baseball Prospectus rated him as below average in that regard for the fourth consecutive season, while StatCorner.com has been giving Wieters a below-average framing grade for five straight years.

Wieters has accepted a qualifying offer once before and would bring his two-year tab with the Orioles from 2016-17 to $33MM if he received and accepted another this year. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at, but if Boras and Wieters feel that the improved durability in 2016 will lead to a multi-year deal on the open market, then they’ll surely think he can earn more. And, the fact that Wilson Ramos suffered a horribly timed knee injury that will weigh down his free-agent stock only makes Wieters look more appealing relative to the remainder of the market. In that respect, it’s easy to see why the Orioles might feel comfortable making the offer.

The other side of the coin for the O’s, though, is that they opened the 2016 season with a franchise-record $147MM payroll and currently project to have an even larger $155MM payroll next season, as Jason Martinez lays out on the Orioles’ payroll page over at Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include Wieters at all, so penciling him in at an additional $17.2MM would cause the team’s projected payroll to balloon to $172.2MM next season before even addressing any of the other needs that face the Orioles’ roster — namely adding some rotation help and a corner outfielder. Considering the fact that Wieters has already surprised the team by accepting once before, Orioles GM Dan Duquette may not wish to make that kind of gamble a second time.

There’s an argument to be made for either side, so let’s open this one up to the public for debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Should the Orioles give Matt Wieters a qualifying offer?
No 60.94% (4,815 votes)
Yes 39.06% (3,086 votes)
Total Votes: 7,901


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Should The Brewers Tender Chris Carter?

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That the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter seems, at first, to be obvious. After being non-tendered by the Astros last offseason, Carter signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Milwaukee, then tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home-run crown, with a career-high 41. Now Carter has 4.159 years of service time, and the Brewers are faced with a decision. Surely it would be ridiculous for them to non-tender him, right?

Chris CarterWell, maybe not. MLBTR projects that Carter will get a very significant bump in salary next year, making $8.1MM through arbitration. While that’s not an astronomical figure, it is high for a one-dimensional player. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz points out, hitters’ salaries during their arbitration seasons are typically evaluated by batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and plate appearances. Carter has never hit well for average or stolen many bases, but he fared very well last season in the other three categories, also amassing 94 RBIs and 644 PAs. In arbitration, counting stats are what matter most, and Carter’s are impressive. In addition, the relative defensive value of a shortstop, say, as compared to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration as it would be on the free agent market. That factor also favors Carter, should the Brewers tender him.

As a result, the amount the Brewers will have to pay Carter through the arbitration process could approach or exceed his actual value. The arbitration process won’t penalize Carter much for his consistently mediocre on-base percentages (.321 this season, .314 career) or his below-average defense at first base (-5.2 UZR in 2016). Via FanGraphs, Carter’s 41-homer 2016 season was worth just 0.9 wins above replacement, largely due to those factors. Also via FanGraphs, the dollar value of that 0.9-WAR season was just $7.1MM, below the $8.1MM he’d likely receive next year through the arb process.

In fact, Carter has only produced more than 1 fWAR twice in his career, thanks to his lack of defensive value and his exorbitant strikeout totals, which prevent him from reaching base. He whiffed 206 times in 2016, and that wasn’t even his career high in that category. Carter was non-tendered last offseason after totaling 90 home runs in the three previous years, even though his salary would only have been a projected $5.6MM. After hitting the open market, he ultimately made less than half that. He would have been worth the $5.6MM in 2016, but neither the Astros nor the free agent market seemed exuberant about his value. That’s worth considering this time around.

It perhaps makes sense, then, that the Brewers appear to be at least considering non-tendering Carter. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that the team had a tough decision on its hands, although GM David Stearns had previously indicated Carter would return.

Then again, 41 home runs is 41 home runs, and perhaps we’re overthinking it. One would imagine that, at the very least, Carter would have value in the right context. Pedro Alvarez, who’s left-handed but has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Carter, got a $5.8MM deal last offseason but produced $9MM in value for the Orioles, generally playing DH. And another whiff-prone, defensively challenged Orioles slugger, Mark Trumbo, got $9.2MM but produced $17.3MM in value.

Also, the Brewers don’t have that much to lose by tendering Carter. They only have two players — Ryan Braun and Matt Garza — under contract for next season, and don’t project to have a high payroll (particularly since Braun is a trade candidate anyway). They can afford Carter. Also, Carter isn’t blocking anyone who would greatly benefit from his playing time. If Carter has another NL-leading home run season, he could perhaps land the Brewers a prospect or two at the trade deadline, or maybe even next offseason, since he’ll still have another year before free agency eligibility. (It should be noted, though, that his projected 2018 salary will be very high if he hits well next season.) There’s also the possibility that some power-starved team could overpay for Carter, given his unique skill set. The Brewers could even tender Carter and then attempt to deal him this winter, if there’s a market.

Perhaps, then, this is much ado about nothing. Tendering Carter seems like the obvious course of action, and perhaps that’s the one the Brewers will take. It’s a decision worthy of serious thought, however. What do you think?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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This week’s original content:

  • MLBTR once again offered insightful pieces from former major leaguer reliever Burke Badenhop and ex-Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs. Burke shared a interesting view of former NFL quarterback Tim Tebow’s signing with the Mets, who handed the now-Arizona Fall League outfielder a $100K bonus on a minor league deal in September. In Burke’s opinion, given that most minor leaguers – including him during his pre-major league days – have to scratch and claw their way to the big leagues while making little money, the Mets awarded the 29-year-old Tebow a blatantly gratuitous sum.
  • Meanwhile, Ryan put forth potential solutions to improve September baseball. The seven-year veteran explained why cutting the schedule from 162 to 154 games, expanding the postseason, increasing rosters from 25 to 28 players, and streamlining the 40-man roster in September would be benefit the game.
  • Tim Dierkes examined whether White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu should opt into arbitration during a five-day window after the World Series. Abreu is already positioned to make $11.66MM next season and $34MM from 2017-19, but Tim argues that he’d have little to lose by giving the arbitration process a shot.
  • This year’s Offseason Outlook series continued with previews focusing on the Phillies, Yankees, Angels, Mariners and Athletics.
  • Steve Adams looked into the cases of pitchers Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz, Jaime Garcia, Gio Gonzalez and Jason Hammel, any of whom could end up on the free agent market if their teams decline club options for 2017.
  • Jeff Todd checked in on the results of last offseason’s Rule 5 draft, noting that eight members of the class emerged as potentially interesting contributors in 2016.
  • In the latest mailbag, Steve fielded questions on the Mariners, Rays, Rockies, and potential free agent postings from Korea and Japan.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

Having amassed fewer than 70 wins both in 2015 and this season, the Athletics are mired in their worst stretch since the late 1970s. While the 2016 A’s picked up one more victory than last year’s version (69 to 68), their run differential actually declined by 73. Only two other American League teams totaled fewer wins than the A’s (who finished last in the AL West) and just one team had a worse run differential. With a roster devoid of marquee talent, executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst are unlikely to transform the low-payroll A’s into playoff contenders by next season. However, shrewd offseason moves combined with progression from Oakland’s bevy of young players and better health (the A’s used the disabled list a club-record 27 times this year) would nudge the team closer to respectability in 2017.
Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Oakland Athletics Depth Chart; Oakland Athletics Payroll Information

While the A’s didn’t hit or pitch well this year, their defense and baserunning were even more egregious. Those two elements played the largest roles in Oakland’s last-place finish in position player fWAR (4.1), which was significantly worse than 29th-ranked Atlanta’s total (10.0). In the field, the A’s placed 30th in Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, and they were third from the bottom at turning ground balls into outs (via StatCorner). That was particularly damaging to a pitching staff that had the majors’ ninth-highest grounder rate.

On the base paths, the A’s came in 28th in FanGraphs’ UBR metric and 26th in steals. Outfielders Billy Burns, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick, all of whom were dealt during the summer, combined for more than half (26) of the team’s 50 stolen bases. Thanks in part to those departures, the A’s are going to have to address their outfield, where questions abound.

Read more

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Although the Mariners extended their major league-worst playoff drought to 15 years in 2016, it was still an encouraging campaign for the club. In the Mariners’ first year under general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais, they finished seventh in the American League in winning percentage (.531, 86-76) and a more impressive fourth in run differential (plus-61). Seattle’s record was good enough to keep the team in the wild-race race until the penultimate day of the season, though merely staying in the hunt doesn’t suffice. With that in mind, Dipoto will spend the next several months trying to position the roster to get over the hump in 2017 and put the Mariners in the postseason for the first time since their historic 116-win 2001 campaign.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $168MM through 2023
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $85MM through 2021 ($15MM club option for 2022)
  • Felix Hernandez, SP: $79MM through 2019 ($1MM conditional club option for 2020)
  • Nelson Cruz, DH/RF: $32MM through 2018
  • Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $15MM through 2018 ($10MM club option for 2018; $1MM buyout; option will vest at $15MM if Iwakuma throws 324 combined innings between 2016-17 and doesn’t end ’17 season with unspecified injury)
  • Steve Cishek, RP: $6MM through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Mariners Depth Chart; Mariners Payroll Information

Earlier in the Mariners’ lengthy skid, there were seasons in which woeful offensive production torpedoed their chances of competing. That wasn’t the case in 2016, however, as the Mariners eclipsed the 700-run plateau (768) for the first time since 2007. All told, Seattle crossed home plate more than 23 of the majors’ other 29 teams and finished second only to Boston’s outstanding offense in wRC+ (107).

The Mariners’ main offensive threats – second baseman Robinson Cano, designated hitter Nelson Cruz and third baseman Kyle Seager – will be back next year, but there are questions about some of the team’s complementary pieces. Ideally for the Mariners, they’ll upgrade their position player group during the offseason with better defenders and baserunners who can also contribute offensively. Defensively, this year’s Mariners ranked 23rd in both Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-24.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (minus-22). On the base paths, they placed 24th in steals (56) and toward the bottom in UBR (23rd) and BsR (26th) – two of FanGraphs’ metrics.

While shortstop Ketel Marte was one of the Mariners’ best baserunners this season, he weighed the club down in other facets and could head to Triple-A Tacoma for further development next year. Seattle already tried to replace Marte over the summer with the Reds’ Zack Cozart, but the teams ran out of time to reach a deal before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. As a 31-year-old with one season left on his contract, the rebuilding Reds could shop Cozart again over the winter. Given the dearth of free agent shortstops on the upcoming market, the Mariners renewing their previous pursuit of Cozart seems like a no-brainer. Not only has Cozart has been a terrific defender since breaking in as a full-time major leaguer in 2012, but his most recent production indicates he’d provide the Mariners another respectable bat. Dating back to last season, Cozart has slashed .254/.308/.435 with 25 home runs in 722 plate appearances. In nearly the same amount of PAs (713), Marte has hit .267/.309/.349 with three homers.

If the Mariners acquire Cozart, he’d team with Cano and Seager to comprise the majority of their infield next season. Elsewhere, there’s no established option at first base, where midseason acquisition Dan Vogelbach could pick up the lion’s share of playing time as a left-handed hitter. The 23-year-old has more than held his own against minor league pitching, and he wouldn’t have a difficult act to follow in soon-to-be free agent Adam Lind (.239/.286/.431 in 2016).

Despite his shortcomings as a baserunner and defender, the big-bodied Vogelbach represents the Mariners’ best in-house option to take the reins at first. If that happens, platooning Vogelbach with a capable right-handed hitter would make sense. The Mariners have an impending free agent who fits the bill in Dae-ho Lee. In his first year in the majors, the longtime star in Korea and Japan slashed an above-average .261/.329/.446 with eight long balls in 157 PAs against southpaws. The 34-year-old Lee likely wouldn’t cost much for the Mariners to re-sign, having made an economical $1MM this season.

While the Mariners could determine that Vogelbach isn’t yet the answer as a primary option and look outside for aid, Dipoto has already made it clear that he wants a younger group of position players in 2017 (via Brent Stecker of 710 ESPN Seattle). Scouring free agency, where there are a slew of potential targets in their mid-30s (Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Napoli and Steve Pearce, to name a few), wouldn’t help Dipoto accomplish that goal. On paper, though, each is a more enticing (and far more expensive) choice than Vogelbach. The trade market probably won’t offer much, though the Brewers might put soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger Chris Carter on the block or even non-tender him.

Behind the plate, the Mariners seem prepared to turn to Mike Zunino again on the heels of an encouraging season that Servais called an “absolute success” (via Stecker). Because he began the year in Tacoma, Zunino only appeared in 55 games with the Mariners. The .195 career hitter batted an unsightly .207 along the way, but his 10.9 percent walk rate and .262 ISO led to .318 on-base and .470 slugging percentages. His overall batting line was easily above average, but it’s up in the air whether the third overall pick in the 2012 draft will continue drawing walks or hitting for power at such high clips. Nevertheless, he’s an asset as a defender, and Servais feels “really good about where he’s at and the strides he’s made to kinda be a front-line, everyday catcher.”

Even if the Mariners are confident enough in Zunino to avoid spending on one the market’s best available catchers – Wilson Ramos, Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and Nick Hundley – they could still use a decent complement at the position. Unfortunately, pickings will be slim outside of that quartet. Current backup Chris Iannetta has fallen off both offensively and defensively over the past two seasons, which could convince the Mariners to decline his $4.25MM option, but it’s debatable whether anyone from the group of A.J. Ellis, Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto and Alex Avila is superior to him. The Mariners also have Jesus Sucre on hand, though it’s difficult to trust a 28-year-old with a .209/.246/.276 line in 264 major league PAs. Meanwhile, Steve Clevenger is a non-tender waiting to happen.

In the outfield, the Mariners only have one starter – center fielder Leonys Martin – under control for 2017. The team relied heavily on Seth Smith, Nori Aoki and Franklin Gutierrez in the corners this year, and there are now decisions to make with all three. Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported last month that the Mariners plan to exercise Smith’s $7MM option, adding that Gutierrez will probably return in lieu of departing as a free agent. If true, the left-handed Smith and the right-handed Gutierrez would make for a useful platoon in right field. That would still leave one open spot, but Aoki is unlikely to occupy it if the club retains Smith, per Dutton.

Aside from Martin, Smith, Aoki and Gutierrez, the Mariners’ outfield candidates include relative unknowns in Guillermo Heredia and August acquisition Ben Gamel. Those two weren’t especially impressive in late-season auditions, which could lead the Mariners to look for an upgrade in the offseason. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported last month that Seattle might make a splash on a “complementary piece” during the winter. The outfield would be a sensible place to spend in that type of scenario.

Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler would be a particularly intriguing target if he gets to free agency. Fowler has long been a solid contributor at the plate and on the bases, and he’s coming off a respectable defensive year thanks to a change in alignment. The switch-hitting 30-year-old also got on base nearly 40 percent of the time this season and has done so at a .366 career clip, which should intrigue an OBP proponent like Dipoto. Potential drawbacks: Fowler would require a pricey multiyear commitment, signing him would cost the Mariners a first-round pick (currently No. 18 overall) if the Cubs tender him a qualifying offer, and either Fowler or Martin would have to be receptive to playing a corner.

Like Fowler, the Rangers’ Ian Desmond would also cost the Mariners significant money and a top pick. His versatility is interesting, though, as Desmond lined up at both left and center this year after spending the first several seasons of his career at shortstop. It’s unclear whether Desmond would consider moving back to short, but if he markets himself as an infielder/outfielder, a team in need in both areas (the Mariners, for instance) could enter the bidding.

As is the case with Desmond, fellow Ranger Carlos Gomez is an impending free agent who has played multiple outfield spots. While Gomez wouldn’t cost a pick and would bring a history of speed and defense to the Mariners, there’s considerable risk with him after he flamed out with the Astros from 2015-16. Gomez returned to his previous All-Star form at the plate with the Rangers in September, however, and will be on many teams’ radars as a result.

Shifting to their rotation, the Mariners have almost an entire starting five seemingly locked in with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, but it’s an unspectacular group. Hernandez and Iwakuma no longer look like front-line options, and Walker has been somewhat of a letdown in the majors since his days as an elite prospect. The Mariners possess other rotation possibilities in Nate Karns, who performed much better as a starter than as a reliever in 2016, and Ariel Miranda. Otherwise, the open market will feature plenty of flawed alternatives. Dipoto hasn’t been shy about making trades, so he could certainly explore that route, too.

Adding a productive innings eater would seem logical, as Hernandez is coming off his lowest mark since 2005 (153 1/3), Iwakuma has durability questions, Paxton has never thrown more than 171 2/3 frames in any professional season, and Walker just had ankle surgery and hasn’t exceeded 169 2/3 in any year. However, having a consistent track record of taking the ball every fifth day wasn’t enough for the Mariners to retain Wade Miley, whom they traded to Baltimore in July for Miranda. Miley was ineffective for Seattle and would have cost the club $8.75MM in 2017. Durable free agents like Edinson Volquez and former Mariner R.A. Dickey should carry similar (perhaps higher) per-year price tags to Miley, but it’s not a lock either would be part of the solution. While Bartolo Colon is better than Miley, Volquez and Dickey, signing the soon-to-be 44-year-old would require him to leave the Mets and switch coasts.

If Karns and Miranda don’t end up as starters, they could factor into the bullpen, where Seattle will be in fine shape even if it non-tenders Tom Wilhelmsen, Charlie Furbush and/or Ryan Cook. The Mariners got great rookie performances this year from closer Edwin Diaz and Dan Altavilla. Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent and Vidal Nuno also look like shoo-ins to occupy spots. Steve Cishek and Tony Zych should figure heavily into the equation in theory, but there are notable health issues with the pair. Regardless, the Mariners clearly have a righty-heavy bullpen and could use a late-game lefty. They’ll be able to find solid and affordable southpaws on the market, where Jerry Blevins, Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, J.P. Howell, Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepczynski will be among the possibilities not named Aroldis Chapman.

Since 2014, a year after they signed a $2 billion television deal, the Mariners’ payroll has risen exponentially. Seattle opened 2016 with a franchise-record $142MM-plus in 25-man roster commitments (up more than $50MM from 2014) and should surpass that mark next season. The club was on the cusp of the playoffs this year, and with new owner John Stanton motivated to win, Dipoto should have the resources available to put the Mariners in contention for an AL West title in 2017.

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