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Trade Market For Catchers

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The regular season may be on pause for the All-Star break, but trade conversations continue over these four days, as does the Internet’s favorite pastime — rampant speculation! As we do each summer here at MLBTR, we’ll be running down the trade market on a position-by-position basis. Jeff Todd already kicked things off with a rundown of the market for starting pitchers, and catchers are up next.

While there may not be a large number of contending clubs on the hunt for an upgrade behind the plate, there are plenty of options available for the few that are. Those clubs could include the likes of the Indians, Rangers, Mets, Astros, White Sox and Red Sox, each of which is firmly in the playoff picture but has received little to no production from its backstops in 2016.

Rentals

Nick Hundley: A lot of people will credit Coors Field for Hundley’s spike in offensive production over the past two seasons, but he posted a .790 OPS on the road for the Rockies last year and has been better away from Denver in 2016 than when playing at his launching pad of a home park. He’s earning $3.15MM this season and is a free agent at season’s end.

A.J. Pierzynski: The 39-year-old had a terrific season in 2015 with Atlanta, but he’s off to a dreadful .205/.227/.250 start. His $3MM salary isn’t prohibitive, but Pierzynski has never been well-regarded from a defensive standpoint and isn’t hitting in 2016. It’s tough to see much interest, but the Braves probably wouldn’t mind saving the bit of money left on his deal.

Carlos Ruiz: At 37 years old, Ruiz’s bat isn’t what it once was, but he’s still getting on base at a .336 clip thanks to a keen eye. His overall .229/.336/.331 slash and $8.5MM salary won’t make him a hot commodity, but if the Phils are willing to eat some of his $8.5MM salary, his knack for getting on base and 30 percent caught-stealing rate in 2016 could lead to some interest as a backup. Ruiz could technically be listed in the section below (“Controllable Through 2017”), as he has a $4.5MM club option ($500K buyout) on his deal as well. There’d be some merit to a club picking that option up with a respectable finish to the season, but it’s not a lock right now.

Geovany Soto: The Halos aren’t going anywhere this season, and as a veteran on a cheap one-year deal, Soto is a logical trade candidate. He’s not the offensive force he once was, but he has a 103 OPS+ over the past four seasons combined and could be a useful backup piece.

Kurt Suzuki: Suzuki looked untradeable back in late May, but he’s hitting .382/.406/.598 over his past 106 plate appearances. He won’t continue at that pace, of course, but the recent surge and his consistently strong contact rate could make him a fairly appealing target to a club in need of an affordable option behind the plate. Of course, his vesting option for the 2017 season may cause some clubs to shy away from the notion of regular playing time.

Controllable Through 2017

Welington Castillo: D-backs GM Dave Stewart expressed that he didn’t necessarily feel compelled to sell at this season’s deadline, but he’s since moved closer Brad Ziegler to the Red Sox. Castillo is slated to hit free agency following the 2017 season and could be viewed as an expendable mid-term asset. The D-backs do have a somewhat intriguing alternative, as unheralded offseason pickup Chris Herrmann has been outstanding through 157 plate appearances. Of course, Herrmann has had plenty of good fortune on balls in play thus far and has never hit at the big league level, so the Snakes may not view him as an everyday option behind the dish.

Hank Conger: Conger’s 2015 throwing woes were well-documented — he caught just one of 43 attempted runners — but he’s righted the ship a bit in 2016, halting eight of 43 attempts. That’s still below the league average, but the bigger concern for Conger, who was optioned to Triple-A this week, has been a dismal .194/.265/.306 batting line. He’s a change of scenery candidate, and his offensive struggles make it unlikely that he’d go to a contender as a starter, he’s a terrific pitch-framer that a team could view as a backup option.

Jonathan Lucroy: Lucroy remains the top catching target on the market, and his brilliant .301/.361/.491 batting line this season makes GM David Stearns and his staff look quite wise for holding off on a trade this past offseason. Lucroy’s contract would fit onto any team’s payroll, and he’s controlled through 2017. Milwaukee has every right to ask for a king’s ransom.

Long-Term Options

Tucker Barnhart: The 25-year-old is hitting at a solid .269/.333/.385 clip over 229 plate appearances, and comes with plenty of cheap control. That probably makes him more valuable to the Reds — who are running out a low payroll and crossing their fingers that Devin Mesoraco can return to health — than he is as a trade chip, but nothing is bolted down in Cincinnati.

Chris Herrmann: It has been a breakout season for the 28-year-old, who has also seen action at every outfield position (yes, including center) and first base. Long a marginal hitter, Herrmann is suddenly mashing at a .291/.353/.511 clip with six home runs over 157 plate appearances. With that kind of production over a decent stretch, but without the background to support it, it’d be hard for Arizona to find a square deal — especially since the team still hopes to contend next year.

Derek Norris: His overall numbers don’t look great thanks to a disastrous month of April, but Norris is hitting .250/.321/.500 with 11 homers over his past 190 plate appearances. I might consider him the likeliest player in all of baseball to get traded, as the Padres need to clear room for Austin Hedges (if only so MLBTR’s Jason Martinez doesn’t have to change the title of his “Knocking Down the Door” series to “Have the Padres Called Up Hedges Yet?”). Hedges is hitting .419/.456/.886 with 14 homers in 28 games since being activated from the minor league DL in early June.

Josh Phegley: After two straight years of approximately league-average offensive production, Phegley has fallen back a bit with a .256/.314/.372 slash in just 86 plate appearances for the A’s. Much as with Barnhart, he probably makes better sense to stay in Oakland, but could be had if another organization is particularly enamored of him.

Cameron Rupp: The Phillies certainly don’t need to move Rupp, as he’s controlled for another four seasons beyond this year. However, the soon-to-be 28-year-old is in the midst of a strong (albeit BABIP-inflated) season and boasts a .287/.329/.507 batting line through 222 plate appearances. Jorge Alfaro is probably the catcher of the future in Philadelphia, and if someone feels compelled to make a nice offer for Rupp, the rebuilding Phillies could look to be opportunistic.

Stephen Vogt: General manager Billy Beane flatly said last May that he wasn’t going to trade Stephen Vogt (and stuck to his word), but Vogt is another season older, another season closer to free agency and, of course, the A’s are in the midst of another dreadful campaign. Vogt is controllable for another three years after this season, but he’ll turn 32 this winter and Oakland may be more open to a major sale in 2016 than it was in 2015.

Big Contracts

Brian McCann: McCann is in the midst of his most productive season with the Yankees, but he’s also 32 years old and is owed $17MM in both 2017 and 2018 (plus a $15MM vesting option for the 2019 season). The Yankees have increased their efforts to get younger in recent seasons — evidenced by the additions of Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro and Nathan Eovaldi as well as a reluctance to part with prospects like Aaron Judge, Luis Severino and Greg Bird — and trading McCann would pave a road for Gary Sanchez to become the team’s regular backstop.

Miguel Montero: Montero has long been a starter, but considering his .201/.319/.345 line through 166 plate appearances this year, it doesn’t seem likely that he’d be acquired to fill that role. The emergence of Willson Contreras could make Montero expendable for the Cubs. He’s earning $14MM this season and next year, so Montero would almost certainly be a salary dump if he were able to be moved at all.

MLBTR Poll: Best Low-Cost Acquisitions

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Some moves pan out; others don’t. And then there are those whose importance turns out to be of an entirely different magnitude than had been anticipated. We’ll look at that latter category here.

Among the many great first-half performers, there are many heralded veterans and rising youngsters who were widely expected to do just what they’ve done. But there are also some surprisingly valuable assets who were added for a relative pittance over the winter. Steve Adams already recently covered beneficial minor-league signings, but here are a few who were acquired in other ways:

  • David Freese, INF, Pirates — He’s a well-known player, but that doesn’t mean that anybody was expecting this kind of production (.291/.373/.472 over 287 plate appearances). At just $3MM on a one-year term, that late-spring signing is already a certifiable bargain.
  • Leonys Martin, OF, Mariners — Seattle has benefited from Martin’s good glovework, wheels, and solid bat — which has produced a surprising double-digit homer tally. Better still, the club now has both Martin and the key piece that it originally gave up to get him (reliever Tom Wilhelmsen).
  • Jonathan Villar, SS, Brewers — David Stearns went from Houston to Milwaukee, and it didn’t take long for him to bring a few former ’Stros with him. Villar, picked up in a minor trade, has been perhaps the best get of all with above-average hitting and big-time speed on the bases driving his value.
  • Drew Pomeranz, SP, Padres — When we’re comfortably discussing a player as one of the best starting pitching assets at the deadline, it’s safe to say his organization did well to acquire him just months prior for a package of Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski.
  • Dan Straily, SP, Reds — Passed around multiple times at the end of camp, Straily has settled in as a useful arm in Cincinnati. He’s still not going to provide exciting results, but one hundred frames of 4.35 ERA pitching has value.
  • Brad Hand, RP, Padres — At the cost of a waiver claim and a 40-man spot, Hand has delivered a 3.10 ERA over 49 1/3 frames. Even better, he’s jumped to a career-best 10.9 K/9, suggesting he may have found another gear upon moving to the pen full-time.
  • Dan Otero, RP, Indians — Acquired for cash by Cleveland, Otero is another player who bounced around over the winter. All he has done is post a 1.27 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 35 1/3 strong frames.

From this list, which has been the best bargain? (Link for mobile app users.)

Best Surprise Bargain Acquisition Of The Winter?
Drew Pomeranz, Padres 37.96% (3,681 votes)
Jonathan Villar, Brewers 23.80% (2,308 votes)
David Freese, Pirates 22.33% (2,166 votes)
Leonys Martin, Mariners 7.59% (736 votes)
Dan Otero, Indians 4.34% (421 votes)
Dan Straily, Reds 3.06% (297 votes)
Brad Hand, Padres 0.92% (89 votes)
Total Votes: 9,698

Knocking Down The Door: Arcia, Benintendi, Bregman, Lopez, Reyes

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This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features a top prospect whose older brother is already in the Majors, two players selected in the top 10 picks of the 2015 draft, and a pair of starters that could add some flames to the back of the bullpen with their organization’s big league club.

Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (Triple-A Colorado Springs)

Arcia cemented his spot as the Brewers’ shortstop of the near future when he posted an .800 OPS with 25 stolen bases while playing most of the 2015 season as a 20 year-old in Double-A Biloxi. Now he’s on the verge of claiming that starting job before he reaches his 22nd birthday on August 4.

While Jonathan Villar’s breakout season (.806 OPS, 31 steals) has played a part in pushing back Arcia’s estimated time of arrival in Milwaukee—it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if he was called up in early May—the recent trade of Aaron Hill opens up third base for Villar while Arcia is putting the finishing touches on his Minor League career with eight hits in his last 20 at-bats, including three doubles, a triple, a homer and seven runs batted in.

Brewers Depth Chart

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox (Double-A Portland)

The Red Sox have already patched up their bullpen by trading for Brad Ziegler, and they’re almost certain to acquire a starting pitcher before the non-waiver trade deadline on August 1 to shore up their shaky rotation. Their offense, meanwhile, is already the best in baseball and they could be even better once the Andrew Benintendi era begins.

I’m not certain that the 22-year-old Benintendi will be the first first-rounder (No. 7 overall) from the 2015 Draft to get the call to the big leagues—see Alex Bregman—but he shouldn’t be far behind. Coincidentally, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently hinted that Benintendi is close and might not need a stop in Triple-A.

Since a promotion to Double-A in mid-May, the left-handed-hitting center fielder has an .844 OPS in 47 games, including a .310 batting average since a 2-for-19 start. He’ll man left field once he arrives in Boston with Brock Holt moving back into his valuable role as a super-utility man.

Red Sox Depth Chart

Alex Bregman, INF, Houston Astros (Triple-A Fresno)

If you watched the Futures Game on Sunday, you know that I’m not the only person that thinks Alex Bregman should be in the Majors by now, including Bregman, who declared, “I’m ready,” when asked on MLB Network what he wanted the world to know about him.

The 22-year-old continues to tear the cover off of the ball in Triple-A and obviously didn’t have any problems with the elite talent on the mound yesterday, as he was a home run shy of the cycle after just three at-bats. Opening a spot in the Houston’s lineup is really as simple as moving Luis Valbuena to first base and allowing A.J. Reed and Evan Gattis to platoon in the designated hitter spot—Gattis has an .802 OPS versus left-handed pitching and a .641 OPS versus right-handers.

The surging Astros will be fun to watch in the second half, especially with Bregman manning third base and hitting in the No. 2 spot between George Springer and Jose Altuve.

Astros Depth Chart

Reynaldo Lopez, SP/RP, Washington Nationals (Triple-A Syracuse)/Alex Reyes, SP/RP, St. Louis Cardinals (Triple-A Memphis)

I’ve lumped Lopez and Reyes together since the theme here is very similar. They’re two of the best pitching prospects in the Minor Leagues, both with limited experience in the upper minors—Lopez has 14 Double-A starts and two Triple-A starts; Reyes has made eight Double-A starts and nine Triple-A starts—and still a lot of room to develop as starting pitchers. But most will agree that they could dominate in the Major Leagues right now in one-to-two inning relief stints.

At 22 and 21 years of age, respectively, Lopez and Reyes could find themselves in the thick of the 2016 playoff race and pitching in plenty of meaningful games. Both can hit 100 mph on the radar gun as starters—I wouldn’t be surprised to see 102 mph in games where they’re only needed for a few batters. And, most importantly, their respective organizations could each use some help in the bullpen.

Nationals Depth Chart

Cardinals Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

The Best Minor League Signings Of 2016

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Minor league deals often go unnoticed or are met with an eye roll from fans — the ever-witty “Championship!” comments abound following such deals — and more often than not, they end up as inconsequential moves that are quickly forgotten. Each year, though, a handful of minor league signings yield legitimate value for their new clubs. With the more than half of the season in the books and the All-Star break upon us, enough of the season has passed that we can discern which minor league deals have yielded the most significant dividends in 2016…

Position Players

  • Robbie Grossman, Twins: Grossman wasn’t an offseason minor league signing, but he inked a minors pact with the Twins in mid-May and was brought up to the big leagues almost immediately thereafter. Since arriving in Minneapolis, he’s seen regular playing time and enjoyed the most productive stretch of his career. The switch-hitter is batting .289/.421/.465 with six homers and 10 doubles over the life of 195 plate appearances and has walked at an incredible 18.5 percent clip. Defensive metrics are way down on his work in left field, but the bat has been good enough that Fangraphs pegs him at a strong 1.1 WAR thus far. He’s controllable for another four seasons as well.
  • Matt Joyce, Pirates: Joyce’s 2015 season with the Angels was awful, but he’s more productive on a per-plate-appearance basis in 2016 than he ever has been before. He’s been heavily platooned, as usual, and has posted an excellent .295/.420/.558 batting line with eight homers in 157 plate appearances as the Pirates’ fourth outfielder. He, too, has drawn poor marks from UZR and DRS, but he’s been productive enough at the plate that he won’t be settling for a minor league contract again this winter.
  • Dae-ho Lee, Mariners: Lee didn’t generate as much interest as countryman Byung Ho Park, but he’s been the better player of the two thus far. Through 188 plate appearances, the former KBO and NPB star is hitting .288/.330/.514 with a dozen homers and four doubles. He’s been platooned quite a bit himself, but his numbers against righties are actually a bit better than his still-strong production against lefties.

Pitchers

  • Fernando Abad, Twins: Some of the shine has worn off from Abad’s early dominance, as he’s yielded seven runs in his past six outings. In spite of that slump, though, Abad boasts a 2.83 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent ground-ball rate. He’s pitched 28 2/3 innings for the Twins and could be a trade chip this summer. He’s controllable through the 2017 campaign, which adds to his appeal.
  • Matt Belisle, Nationals: A strained calf has limited Belisle to 19 innings with the Nats this season, but he’s been terrific when healthy. The veteran right-hander has a 2.37 ERA with 16 strikeouts against four walks (two intentional) with a 41.1 percent ground-ball rate in D.C. He’s helped to stabilize what has been a vastly improved Nationals bullpen in 2016.
  • Ryan Buchter, Padres: The 29-year-old has been brilliant for San Diego in 2016, logging 38 innings with a 2.61 ERA and averaging 13 strikeouts per nine innings. He has some control issues, averaging five walks per nine as well, but he’s missed so many bats that the free passes haven’t hurt him often. He’d only thrown one big league inning prior to this season, so San Diego can control him for six years if he can maintain this breakout. (Apologies for leaving Buchter off the initial list; he was added to the 40-man back in January, which caused me to incorrectly remember him as a Major League signee.)
  • Matt Bush, Rangers: That Bush even made it to a Major League mound after the trajectory his career took is astonishing on its own, but his performance thus far with the Rangers has been excellent as well. The 30-year-old has a 2.49 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate through 25 1/3 innings out of the Rangers’ bullpen. With Shawn Tolleson’s 2016 struggles and a three-month stay on the disabled list for Keone Kela, Bush’s emergence has been critical for Texas.
  • Dillon Gee, Royals: Gee’s 4.11 ERA isn’t exactly flashy, but he’s provided 57 serviceable innings in 13 relief appearances and five starts for the Royals. And, with Chris Young shifting to the bullpen, Gee could continue to get some starts for Kansas City following the All-Star break. The Royals can hang onto him for another season via the arbitration process, as well.
  • Brandon Kintzler, Twins: The former Brewers right-hander has found himself in the closer role for the Twins following an injury to Glen Perkins and a disastrous season for Kevin Jepsen. Kintlzer doesn’t miss bats (5.5 K/9), but he’s walked just two batters in 26 innings and has posted an exceptional 64.2 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.42 ERA. Like his bullpen-mate Abad, Kintzler is controllable through the 2017 season and could be appealing to clubs in need of relief help.
  • Chien-Ming Wang, Royals: Wang’s improved velocity was a big storyline in Spring Training, but he’s settled in at an average of 91.6 mph, which is right in line with his career mark in that regard. The 36-year-old’s sinker isn’t generating grounders like it used to, but he’s still managed a 3.68 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 46.2 percent ground-ball rate in 36 2/3 innings with the reigning World Series champions this year.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered this week:

The 5 Most Important Roster Decisions Of The Week

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1. Mets SP Matt Harvey Placed On 15-Day DL

If there was any consolation for the Mets with young rotation stars Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard having to pitch with bone spurs in their elbows and Zack Wheeler’s 2016 status being up in the air after his latest setback, it was that Matt Harvey had gotten past his early season struggles.

With six strong starts in a row (2.27 ERA, 35.2 IP, 27 H, 8 BB, 28 K), the 27-year-old was heading into his 4th of July start against Miami on a roll. But not only did Harvey’s hot streak end then, his season would also unknowingly come to an end.

The Marlins lit Harvey up for five earned runs and 11 hits in 3.2 innings. Two days later, he was placed on the 15-Day disabled list with shoulder discomfort. Today, it was announced that he’ll undergo season-ending Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery.

At least in the short term, it will be Logan Verrett (5.32 ERA, 23.2 IP, 14 BB, 16 K in five starts) taking Harvey’s rotation spot. Sean Gilmartin (4.48 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 in 13 Triple-A starts) could also on a very short list for a start or two after the All-Star break. Unlike previous seasons, there isn’t a top prospect ready to step in. Jacob deGrom and Bartolo Colon will be relied upon heavily down the stretch, as will Wheeler, if and when he returns.

Mets Depth Chart

 

2. Cardinals 2B Matt Carpenter Placed On 15-Day DL

Even with Matt Carpenter having an MVP-caliber season, the Cardinals were having a hard time staying anywhere near striking distance of the division-leading Cubs. With their best hitter now sidelined—Carpenter was placed on the 15-Day disabled list with a strained oblique on Thursday—they’re in danger of losing ground in a very competitive Wild Card race.

The semi-good news is that Kolten Wong, who has stepped back into the starting second base job, has been better since being recalled from Triple-A with a .277/.358/.340 slash line. Randal Grichuk, who appears slated for regular action in center field with Wong back to the infield, is 5-for-8 with a homer since his return. He was demoted in mid-June after a terrible start.

They Cardinals will need those two young hitters, as well as the rest of the lineup to step up. With Brandon Moss also on the disabled list with a sprained ankle, Matt Adams’ left-handed bat has become that much more important. And he’s currently in a 3-for-39 slump, which is the exact opposite of “stepping up.”

Cardinals Depth Chart

 

3. Royals Closer Wade Davis Placed On 15-Day DL

The Royals won the 2015 World Series with a mediocre starting rotation—Edinson Volquez (3.55 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.0 K/9) was probably their ace—and a superstar-less lineup—Kendrys Morales led the team with an .847 OPS. What they did have, though, was an elite bullpen with a closer, Wade Davis, who was pretty much un-hittable (4.4 H/9).

Fast-forward to 2016. The starting rotation isn’t any better. The lineup was just decent before losing Mike Moustakas for the season. And now the strength of their team, the bullpen, will be without Davis, who was placed on the 15-Day disabled list on Tuesday with a strained forearm. There’s an optimistic tone coming out of Kansas City, but forearm troubles are always of at least some substantial concern.

While bullpen depth isn’t an issue in Kansas City, closer candidates Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria –the Royals haven’t named either as the clear 9th inning option—each gave up runs in non-save situations since Davis went down. That can’t be a good sign for a team that currently has no clear team strength. They have plenty of post-season experience, but getting there will be a challenge.

Royals Depth Chart

 

4. Mets INF Jose Reyes Has Contract Purchased From Minors

When Jose Reyes last played for the Mets, he was a superstar shortstop headed for a huge payday in free agency. Four-and-a-half seasons later, the 33-year-old has been traded twice (Miami-to-Toronto; Toronto-to-Colorado) and was recently released by the Rockies after serving a 51-game suspension for domestic violence. Now, he’s hoping to rebuild his career and image.

After signing with the Mets on a Minor League contract on June 25th, Reyes joined the big league club in his familiar leadoff role. This time around, though, he’s the starting third baseman with David Wright out indefinitely due to a herniated disc in his neck.

Bringing back Reyes, who has a pair of doubles and a homer in his first three games, is a relatively risk-free move (public relations aside). Since the chances of their starting rotation carrying them in 2016 have decreased greatly over the past few weeks, the Mets really need a spark out of their lineup. A rejuvenated Reyes at the top could do the trick.

Mets Depth Chart

 

5. A’s SP Rich Hill Activated from 15-Day DL

In last week’s “Top 20 Trade Candidates”, Jeff Todd ranked Rich Hill No. 11 and wrote that he wouldn’t make it into top-five status again until he proved that he was back to pre-injury form. Well, he’s made it back and it didn’t take him long: Hill checks in at 3rd on the updated list. If he didn’t re-establish his value after his first start back on July 2nd when he logged a quality start against the Pirates (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K), he certainly did so with his dominating performance against the Astros on Thursday (7 IP, ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K.)

Anything can happen in the coming weeks as Hill can still make 2-3 starts before being dealt. But, barring another injury, his value isn’t likely to decrease at all. The 36-year-old lefty has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in baseball since the Red Sox gave him a shot last September. In 17 starts, he has a 2.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.8 K/9 and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. That kind of production is going to cost a contending team some real prospect value.

Athletics Depth Chart

Top 25 Trade Candidates

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It’s time for this week’s iteration of MLBTR’s top trade candidate series. The rumor mill is churning, and teams are jockeying for position in the standings — both of which have a big impact on our new list. In particular, a seven-game winning streak changes the Pirates’ situation — though the club is nevertheless said to be marketing at least one hurler. And Aaron Hill became the latest player to move, going from the Brewers to the Red Sox.

For those who’ll inevitably ask: no, I’m still not ready to put the Yankees on the board. They’d unquestionably have some major trade assets — led by Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, and Carlos Beltran — but the mega-market organization is still too close to contention to make a sell-off appear likely.

Your weekly reminder: we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

Here’s this week’s list:

1. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — Bruce seems to be drawing fairly broad interest: even teams like the Dodgers and the Nationals — who probably have wants more than needs in the outfield — are said to be checking in.

2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — We’re still waiting to hear of serious interest in one of the game’s best catchers. There have been a few notable injuries to back-up catchers, which could open some daylight for demand. And it’s worth remembering that Lucroy brings enough with the bat that he could also see action at first or DH.

3. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — Hill looked good in his return to the major league mound, and was even better yesterday. He looks to be the best pure rental arm available.

4. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics — Reddick has thrown some 0-fers on the board since his return, with one big game propping up his numbers. That’s a miniscule sample, of course, but buying teams will be watching closely to see whether his thumb injury has any lingering effects.

5. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — It’s tough to know how to order the controllable starters, but the Rays seem the likeliest team to move one and Odorizzi may offer the right blend of current performance, control length, and cost to facilitate a deal.

6. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — Valencia keeps hitting and offers the most power of any potentially available infielders. With an added year of arb control available, he doesn’t need to be moved, but that also makes him a candidate to be picked up by an organization that wants to fill a 2017 need without going onto a tough market next winter.

7. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — We’ve heard that the Rockies will consider dealing their star outfielder, though he has denied reports that he is looking to be moved. The NL West appears to be out of reach, and the Wild Card is a tall task as well. If Colorado is really willing to part with Gonzalez, he’d be one of the top trade pieces available.

8. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — With other corner outfield options emerging, the motivation for buyers to work out a complicated deal to land Braun may just not be there.

9. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins — Santana has been pitching quite well of late, and is said to be the likeliest member of the organization to change hands. Minnesota could certainly keep him, but there ought to be plenty of demand for a pitcher who looks like a good bet to contribute a lot of solid innings.

10. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds — Cozart is still the best pure shortstop who can be had, but it’s just not apparent whether any teams need a starter there — or whether any organization will give up enough to add him in a super-utility role.

11. Yunel Escobar, 3B, Angels — Escobar has been on fire at the plate since sitting out a few days, making for another interesting infield option. But Los Angeles isn’t interested in a rebuild, and he could be an important asset for the season to come.

12. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — The signals from Braves country are that Teheran likely won’t be moved. With an understandably high asking price being placed on the young, controlled righty, and other options emerging, he may stick in Atlanta.

13. Drew Pomeranz, SP, Padres — Here’s another possible target for teams that don’t want to cough up prospects for a pitcher who’ll hit the open market in a few months’ time. San Diego is willing to deal, but probably won’t just take the highest offer for the emerging lefty. It’ll take a very interested buyer to pry loose Pomeranz.

14. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — Each of Hellickson’s last three outings has ended with the same bottom-line result: one earned over six frames. He’s allowing less than four earned per nine now for the year after that stretch, and could help shore up a leaky staff. Back-of-the-rotation rentals are frequently swapped in July, and Hellickson looks like a likely candidate.

15. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — Vizcaino has been roughed up of late, allowing four earned on six hits and six walks while recording just two strikeouts over his last four appearances. If Teheran is pitching too well to be dealt, the opposite could be occurring here.

16. Eduardo Nunez, IF, Twins — Set for a surprise All-Star appearance, Nunez looks like a useful utility infielder now that he’s in the midst of his second-straight season of above-average offensive production. Minnesota doesn’t need to deal him, as he’s cheap and has another year of arbitration yet to come.

17. Melvin Upton, OF, Padres — Speaking of rehabilitated careers, Upton is putting up league-average offensive numbers with 19 steals and a still-useful glove. He’d be a useful fill-in starter for a team dealing with injuries or a nice fourth outfielder, and San Diego will surely like the idea of shedding some of his salary.

18. Matt Moore, SP, Rays — We’ve seen Moore’s name begin to come up in trade chatter despite his uneven performance. As Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs explains, though, Moore has shown signs that he could be harnessing his talent, making him an interesting upside play.

19. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies — Though he isn’t a premium defender, Blackmon is capable of playing center field and is putting up impressive offensive numbers. He isn’t running like he did last year, but remains a valuable contributor on the basepaths, too. The Rockies certainly don’t need to deal him, given the affordable salary and two remaining seasons of control, but may be willing to talk if a contender decides it needs a new option up the middle.

20. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Brewers — There isn’t much to add beyond what we’ve covered on Jeffress before. Milwaukee probably won’t settle for a solid return for the quality reliever, though his rising arb costs may play a role in the decisionmaking.

21. Derek Norris, C, Padres — After a sluggish start, Norris has raked since the calendar flipped to June. The 27-year-old is earning just shy of $3MM and comes with two more years of control, so San Diego doesn’t need to move him. But with Christian Bethancourt showing promise and Austin Hedges clamoring for a promotion, a deal seems plausible.

22. Chris Carter, 1B, Brewers — Carter continues to show monster power with episodic stretches where he doesn’t get on base. There are limits to his value, but teams in need of a big bat won’t find many other 30-home-run bats on the market.

23. Jon Niese, SP, Pirates — Last week’s list included some notable Bucs’ players — Mark Melancon and David Freese — who no longer seem likely to be available. (We’re letting this list go where the trade and contention winds take it.) But Pittsburgh is said to be shopping Niese despite its jump back into the postseason picture. The southpaw hasn’t been good, but teams in need of innings could certainly do worse than betting on a turnaround.

24. Jed Lowrie, IF, Athletics — We’ve already seen Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill move in trades, and the 32-year-old Lowrie could fit a similar profile. He is hitting only .283/.339/.350 on the year, though that’s dampened a bit by his home park, and isn’t particularly cheap ($7.5MM salary with $7.5MM more to go for 2017 and an option buyout). Nevertheless, as the Johnson and Hill trades show, Lowrie is the type of player that contending teams often add to plug a hole and add versatility.

25. Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies — Bourjos is suddenly laying waste to big league pitching and is a pure rental. Nobody is going to value him at his ridiculous batting line over the last month or so, of course, but the hot streak makes him a plausible chip. Bourjos can play center and run like the wind, so he doesn’t even need to hit much to have use — all the more so as a late-season option after rosters expand.

Keep reading for more names that were considered …

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2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Multiple contract-year hitters raked in the month of June.  Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Beltran, Kendrys Morales, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, Michael Saunders, Luis Valbuena, Mark Trumbo, and Justin Turner came up big, and many more have showed well since the most recent installment of our Free Agent Power Rankings back on June 2.  The starting pitching side was much lighter, with nice runs from Bud Norris and Doug Fister.

While no extensions were signed, there was still plenty of movement in the Power Rankings based on June events.  Below, I’ve ranked the 2016-17 free agents by earning power.  You can view the full list of free agents here.

1.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes remains on pace for his first 40 home run season, which should compel him to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his contract with the Mets shortly after his 31st birthday in October.  Cespedes will start in the outfield for the NL All-Star team, and he’s currently the only free agent I project to land a six-year deal well in excess of $100MM.

2.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista, 36 in October, suffered a toe injury in mid-June and won’t return until after the All-Star break.  A four-year deal still seems plausible, with precedents such as Victor Martinez and Ben Zobrist.  Still, the fourth year is not a lock for Bautista, who is on track for his worst season since becoming a full-time player with the Blue Jays.

3.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Bautista’s teammate had a much better month.  Encarnacion smashed 11 home runs in June and has been named to the AL All-Star team.  As he’s shown with mammoth months in years past, EE can go on a hot streak with the best of them.  His free agent stock is suppressed for two reasons: he’ll turn 34 in January, and he’s probably limited to the American League as a primary designated hitter.  Nonetheless, his contract projection is starting to approach that of Bautista: four years at a total of $80MM or more.

4.  Josh Reddick.  Reddick returned to Oakland’s lineup on June 28th after missing over a month with a fractured thumb.  On June 26th, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the A’s and Reddick “appear to be far apart” on a contract extension, and there are no indications of recent progress.  Slusser reported a few days later that the Royals have interest in trading for Reddick, and Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com has also linked the Giants to the right fielder.  Five days ago, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd ranked Reddick as the No. 3 trade candidate in the game.  So Reddick may be on the move this month, which could remove a qualifying offer from the equation this winter.  While I have projected Reddick for a five-year deal previously, a safer call might be four years.

5.  Kenley Jansen.  Jansen’s excellence continues for the Dodgers, and he’s been awarded with his first career All-Star nod.  The 28-year-old closer from Curaçao will look to shatter Jonathan Papelbon’s record contract for a reliever.  Papelbon signed a four-year, $50MM deal in November 2011, so we’re definitely due for a new precedent five years later.  Jansen’s ceiling could be around five years and $70MM.

6.  Ian Desmond.  I wasn’t prepared to award Desmond a spot in our top ten last month, and he proceeded to put up monster numbers in June.  Desmond is the current wins above replacement leader among projected free agents, at 3.9.  He’s in the midst of the best offensive season of his career and has proven to be above average in both left and center field defensively for the Rangers.  It’s been an extremely successful makeover for the former Nationals shortstop, who made the All-Star team for the second time in his career.  Desmond, who turns 31 in September, seems a good bet for a four-year deal north of $60MM.

7.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman has been dominant in his 22 innings for the Yankees, dropping his walk rate well below his career norm in the small sample.  He ranked seventh on Jeff Todd’s trade candidate list last week.  The Yankees are below .500 and four games out in the Wild Card standings, and they have the rest of the month to decide whether to sell.  Chapman currently sits below Jansen in terms of free-agent earning power because of his domestic violence incident last year.

8.  Wilson Ramos.  Ramos’ breakout season continued with a huge month of June, and he makes this list for the first time.  The 28-year-old Nationals catcher, who is hitting .335/.390/.554, made the All-Star team for the first time in his career.  A four-year deal is starting to look possible for Ramos, who will be a young free agent.  Even after Francisco Cervelli’s extension with the Pirates, this free agent class offers solid options at catcher with Ramos and fellow All-Star Matt Wieters.

9.  Dexter Fowler.  Fowler suffered a hamstring injury on June 18th and had been scuffling prior to that.  He was voted onto the NL All-Star team, one of seven Cubs to make the roster.  Fowler is hopeful he’ll be able to participate in the All-Star game next Tuesday.  Looking at his free agent stock, two strong months won’t be enough for Fowler to lock in a four-year deal.  A strong, healthy finish will be key, given Fowler’s injury history prior to 2015.

10.  Mark Trumbo.  We had many candidates for this spot, but Trumbo gets the nod for the second consecutive month.  The 30-year-old right fielder/first baseman leads the American League with 24 home runs and has been named to his second career All-Star team.  Barring injury, Trumbo should fly past his career high of 34 home runs, set in 2013 with the Angels.  While he’s a one-dimensional player, a 40 home run season would be difficult to ignore in free agency.

Four players came close to landing a spot within the top ten: Matt Wieters, Michael Saunders, Carlos Gomez, and Justin Turner.  All of them played well in June, and Gomez had his best month in a long time.  A difficult month pushed the Mets’ Neil Walker off our list, while Rich Hill lost his spot due to a groin injury.

Knocking Down The Door: Hedges, Jimenez, Thompson, Vogelbach, Wilkerson

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This week’s installment of “Knocking Down The Door” includes the first player to repeat on the list, a slugging first baseman who is unlikely to break into the Majors with his current organization and a pitcher who could find himself in the starting rotation of a playoff contender two years after being purchased from an Independent League team.

Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso)

How do you make the “Knocking Down The Door” list after going 11-for-20 with five homers to earn last week’s honors? You go 14-for-29 with five more homers. Yes, Austin Hedges really did this. He ended up with 12 homers over a 14-start period.

Keep in mind that this is a guy known for his defense. Phrases like “he’d be valuable if he hit .220 with 10 homers because his defense is that good” are common when referring to the 23-year-old Hedges.

Still, this latest barrage of homers probably doesn’t affect his ETA much, if at all. As soon as general manager A.J. Preller gets a trade offer to his liking for Derek Norris, who has an OPS right around .800 over the past two months with nine doubles and ten home runs over, the “Austin Hedges” era will commence. Norris had a minor injury scare behind the plate last night when his elbow was hit by Brandon Drury’s swing, but Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweeted that x-rays were negative and Norris is day-to-day.

Padres Depth Chart

Joe Jimenez, RP, Detroit Tigers (Double-A Erie)

The Tigers finally have a reliable closer to shut down opponents in the 9th inning. Francisco Rodriguez is still getting the job done at 34 years of age with 23 saves in 25 chances. Finding a strong group of setup men to bridge the gap to him is a work in progress, however.

So can a 21-year-old who has pitched a total of 13 innings above A-ball be the solution?

Joe Jimenez is the rare prospect to be recognized as a “Future Closer” early in his career while still in the low minors. The Tigers have been patient with him, but as he gets closer to the majors, he’s becoming difficult to ignore.

The hard-throwing right-hander has completely dominated in 31 innings between Double-A and High-A, allowing just one earned run, 12 hits and nine walks while striking out 54 batters.

Jimenez might have the perfect mentor in Rodriguez, who debuted as a 20-year-old with the Angels late in the 2002 season and was an integral part of their World Series run as the setup man to Troy Percival. If the Tigers are to make a run at a playoff spot, they’ll likely need their own version of young “K-Rod”. Jimenez will need a cool nickname, though.

Tigers Depth Chart

Jake Thompson, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley)

Shortly after Zach Eflin got the call to the Majors last month, I named his former Triple-A rotation-mate Ben Lively as a pitcher who was “Knocking Down The Door” and also mentioned Jake Thompson as a deserving candidate. Since, Lively has not been as effective. The 22-year-old Thompson, however, continues to roll.

In his last six starts, Thompson has averaged over seven innings per start while posting an 0.85 ERA with 10 walks and 24 strikeouts. He should get a chance at some point in 2016 as the Phillies try to limit innings for their young starters. A big league promotion could also happen as soon as general manager Matt Klentak finds a taker for Jeremy Hellickson, who has boosted his trade value with what has probably been his best season since he was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011.

Phillies Depth Chart

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa)

We’ve known for years that the Cubs were flush with position player prospects. Many of them have reached the Majors, even if not as regulars at one position due to their defensive versatility. Javier Baez has played all over the infield. Willson Contreras is seeing time in left field in addition to his work behind the plate. Addison Russell had to play second base when he first arrived. Kris Bryant’s versatility has also allowed manager Joe Maddon to find at-bats for his young hitters.

This won’t be the case with Dan Vogelbach, though. He is limited to first base and blocked by Anthony Rizzo, who is also limited to first base.

When the 23-year-old Vogelbach, who has a .303/.416/.542 slash line in 80 games, finally beats down the door to the big leagues, he’ll likely be wearing a different uniform. With his stock on the rise, there should be plenty of teams asking about the left-handed hitting slugger in July.

Cubs Depth Chart

Aaron Wilkerson, SP, Boston Red Sox (Triple-A Pawtucket)

Coming into the 2016 season, I wouldn’t have placed Aaron Wilkerson any higher than 11th or 12th on the team’s starting pitching depth chart. And yet, we’re not even to the All-Star break and Sean O’Sullivan is part of their current four-man rotation and Wilkerson is probably next in line for a call-up.

It’s not uncommon for a team to be dipping so deep into its pitching depth given the rash of pitcher injuries throughout the league, but that’s not the case with the Red Sox. Aside from Brian Johnson, who had been sidelined until recently while undergoing treatment for anxiety, the Sox just have a lot of guys who have pitched themselves out of an opportunity. Clay Buchholz has been moved to the bullpen twice. Joe Kelly, who is on the Triple-A disabled list, is expected to return as a reliever in the second half. Eduardo Rodriguez was ineffective in the Majors. Henry Owens has been inconsistent in Triple-A. And so on.

This Wilkerson guy, though, has been a rock. In 92.1 innings between Triple-A and Double-A, the 27-year-old has allowed just 69 hits with 25 walks and 102 strikeouts. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of his 16 starts. In 10 of those 12, he’s allowed one run or less.

There is a possibility that the Red Sox could start the secondnd half with O’Sullivan, knuckleballer Steven Wright and Wilkerson, who went undrafted out of college in 2011 and was purchased from an Independent League in 2014, in their starting rotation behind David Price and Rick Porcello. Baseball is so predictable.

Red Sox Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

10 Under-The-Radar Trade Candidates

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We’ve been focusing of late on the upper echelon of the summer trade market with our Top Trade Candidate Series — which weighs both availability and value in ranking the top players who might be available. But contenders aren’t only looking for impact; they’re also hunting for reasonably-priced depth pieces that can help shore up areas of need and provide roster flexibility.

As teams comb over the rosters of likely sellers for useful players, these are some under-the-radar names they could consider pursuing:

Pitchers

Brandon Kintzler, RP, Twins — Moving into the closer’s role has raised Kintzler’s profile somewhat, but he still isn’t a name you hear much. But perhaps that should change. He is not and never has been a high-K pitcher, but his impeccable control (0.8 BB/9 this year) and worm-burning tendencies (65.3% groundball rate in 2016) explain why he has managed a 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. Thing is, this isn’t totally out of the blue: Kintzler owns a 3.25 ERA in over 200 big league frames. He’s dirt cheap and comes with another year of control.

Marc Rzepczynski, RP, Athletics — Scrabble is a pending free agent who should be quite available. He has dominated lefties throughout his career — they own a .223/.289/.300 batting line against him — though this year he has actually been somewhat better against righties, who generally knock him around.  That improvement against opposite-handed hitters has helped drive a 2.96 ERA, though Rzepczynski is also coughing up 5.3 free passes per nine to go with his 9.2 K/9 strikeout rate. More importantly, though, he’s still delivering the same velo and nearly the same swinging-strike rate as he has in recent years.

Carlos Torres, RP, Brewers — Torres has been a sturdy reliever in the past, but pitched beneath his peripherals last year for the Mets. He’s now doing something of the opposite, with ERA estimators lagging his 3.29 ERA, but Torres is punching out more than a batter an inning with a career-best 12.0% swinging-strike rate. Organizations looking to add depth to a bullpen will certainly consider the 33-year-old.

Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Rockies — The veteran Colorado lefty was off to an abysmal start and is owed a hefty $12.5MM before hitting the open market. But he has been quite effective since returning to the rotation in mid June: over his last five outings, including a four-inning relief appearance, De La Rosa has allowed just six earned runs on 19 hits over 28 frames. He has surrendered 13 free passes against only 19 punch-outs, but De La Rosa has drawn plenty of trade interest in the past and the Rox may be ready to move on. Teams in need of rotation depth could take a look.

Brad Hand, RP/SP, Padres — After functioning in a swingman role for the Marlins, Hand has been a pure reliever in San Diego, where he’s now running up double-digit K/9 tallies and swinging strike rates (10.8%) for the first time in his career. He’s also walking nearly five batters per nine, but the southpaw is getting solid results (3.38 ERA) with estimators generally viewing him a sturdy option. He’s not going to draw any kind of huge return, but could be a useful piece for the right team, particularly given his background in a multi-inning role.

Position Players

Eduardo Nunez, INF, Twins — The 29-year-old had never really lived up to his former billing, but he’s carrying a .305/.338/.464 batting line over his last 510 plate appearances in Minnesota dating to the start of 2015. Nunez has hit 15 long balls and added 27 stolen bases in that span. Even after accounting for some ball-in-play luck, both in terms of BABIP (.339 this year) and perhaps HR/FB (12.9%), that’s quite a useful offensive profile for a player who can line up all over the infield and even the corner outfield. With another year of arb eligibility remaining, he’s an interesting target for contenders to mull.

Coco Crisp, OF, Athletics — Now 36 years of age, Crisp is finally healthy and has been putting up league-average offensive numbers. Teams could consider him as a fourth outfielder who is at least plenty experienced in center field, even if he really shouldn’t spend much time there at this stage. Crisp hasn’t been as dynamic on the bases as he once was, so there are some real limits to his function, but he’s the kind of veteran presence that many organizations like to plug in for a stretch run. And in a reduced role, there’d be no concern that he’d trigger a vesting option for next season.

Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies — As bad as he was in the first two months of the year, Bourjos has been on fire of late — running at about a 1.000 OPS clip for June and early July. The truth, as ever, is somewhere in between, but Bourjos could be a useful bench piece down the stretch given his history of good glovework and wheels on the bases. Plus, he’s playing on an affordable $2MM salary this year and is a pure rental — meaning that the Phils should be plenty motivated to deal.

Yangervis Solarte, IF, Padres — Though he isn’t the kind of utility option that Hernandez is, Solarte is capable of manning second or third and brings more with the bat. He has missed a good bit of time, but owns an excellent .301/.387/.483 batting line over 163 plate appearances and has been a consistently above-average hitter as a big leaguer. He only has two years of control on his ticker, so there’s no rush for San Diego to deal, but this might represent an opportune time to get some value with other trade pieces sidelined by injury.

Robbie Grossman, OF, Twins — The switch-hitting, 26-year-old outfielder has been a breakout, feel-good story for the scuffling Twins after previously failing to make good on his prospect billing. Over 170 trips to the plate, he’s putting up a monster .279/.406/.479 batting line while recording 30 walks against 38 strikeouts. With just over one year of service time entering the year, Grossman could be kept for next to nothing if Minnesota prefers. But he could be an interesting target for teams in need of a patient hitter with a bit of pop who can be held into the future.

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