MLBTR Originals

Trade Market For First Basemen

By Jeff Todd | July 21, 2016 at 5:28pm CDT

If all else fails, teams looking for pop can usually shoehorn a slugger into a first base and/or DH role, and it’s easier to carry such players with the knowledge that rosters will expand in fairly short order. Last year, we saw Mike Napoli and Brandon Moss move at the deadline. But is the demand there this time around?

Truth be told, there aren’t a lot of situations that scream for improvement. John Jaso hasn’t been stellar for the Pirates, though Sean Rodriguez has made for a useful companion and the team has top prospect Josh Bell on hand (if it’s willing to trust him in the field). It’s hard to imagine the Nationals giving up on Ryan Zimmerman — and we haven’t heard any chatter to suggest it — but he is hurt and hasn’t been effective, while lefty bench bat Clint Robinson isn’t matching last year’s productivity. Justin Bour has shown well for the Marlins, but he’s not being trusted to face southpaws and could probably stand to be paired with a better platoon mate than the struggling Chris Johnson (though the return of Dee Gordon will effectively deepen the overall infield mix). The Astros haven’t really landed on a first baseman, but the team may have already made its corner infield move with the signing of Yulieski Gurriel. With the loss of Prince Fielder, and the team’s seeming lack of interest in giving Joey Gallo a shot, perhaps the Rangers shouldn’t be counted out.

If those or any other organizations go hunting for new bats, here are some of the names they might consider:

Rentals

Logan Morrison & Steve Pearce (Rays), Adam Lind & Dae-ho Lee (Mariners), Mark Reynolds (Rockies), Justin Morneau (White Sox), Michael Morse (Free Agent)

We considered Pearce in the discussion of second basemen, and he’ll probably also appear as a corner outfield option, but perhaps he’s best considered as a somewhat unique, floating, semi-regular slugger. He’s a health risk, but he’s also very affordable and is flat-out raking this year (.324/.393/.553).
Morrison and Lind haven’t done a whole heck of a lot at the plate in 2016 — at last look, each carried an 88 OPS+ — but they’re rental pieces that could hold some appeal as lefty bench bats. Much the same holds for Reynolds, albeit from the right side. His .277/.345/.438 batting line is obviously propped up by the advantages of altitude, but he could still garner consideration.
Lee has been hitting, and doing equal damage against pitchers of both kinds, so it’ll be interesting to see if another organization takes a liking to the 34-year-old slugger — who is owed just $1MM this year. It’s not clear from public reports whether he’ll be controllable after the season, but odds are his minor league contract stipulates that he must be put back into the free agent pool.
Morneau is a mystery — he has taken just 38 professional plate appearances since his offseason elbow surgery — and he’s 35 years old. There’s not much chance that he’ll do anything in the next ten days to prompt a deal, let alone that the White Sox will look to trade him in that time. But if he starts putting up numbers and Chicago falls back in August, the veteran first bagger could conceivably be moved in August.
It still seems a bit odd that Morse hasn’t signed since his early-season release by the Bucs, but he is 34 years old and may not be interested in taking a minor league deal. It’s tough to see a contender calling with a MLB offer at this stage.

Future Control

Chris Carter (Brewers), Danny Valencia & Yonder Alonso (Athletics), Byung-ho Park & Kennys Vargas (Twins), Brett Wallace (Padres)

Teams looking for pop could well zero in on Carter, who can also be kept around for two more years via arbitration. He’s producing right at his career rates, which means a borderline OBP and loads of long balls.
Valencia has barely cracked 100 innings at first, but he’s beginning to see a bit of action there and clubs could consider him in that role (at least on a part-time basis) as a way to get the bat in the lineup. Both he and his teammate, Alonso, have another year of arb eligibility remaining. And they are headed in opposite directions, with Valencia slumping through July while Alonso has posted .800+ OPS figures in each of the last two months.
The Twins don’t seem particularly likely to discuss either of their two young DH candidates, and other organizations don’t seem particularly likely to come calling. San Diego would surely be willing to listen on Wallace, but he hasn’t followed up on last year’s short-sample success and his two years of future control don’t carry any significant value.

Big Contracts

Billy Butler (Athletics), Joey Votto (Reds), Mark Teixeira & Alex Rodriguez (Yankees), Albert Pujols (Angels), Joe Mauer (Twins), Ryan Howard (Phillies)

Of the players listed here, Butler might be the likeliest to be traded. He has enjoyed a rebound of sorts over the last two months or so, but overall he has been even less productive this year than last. As a pure DH who is owed $10MM this year and next, it’s far from clear that he’ll be targeted.
The remaining names are all largely implausible trade pieces for somewhat varied, but somewhat overlapping reasons. All have produced at times since signing their monster contracts, but only Votto (who has emerged from his early-season malaise) is putting up big numbers at present — and he not only has gobs of cash still left on his deal, but possesses a full no-trade clause that he doesn’t seem inclined to waive.

Dream On

Freddie Freeman (Braves), Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks), Wil Myers (Padres), Jose Abreu (White Sox)

I feel compelled to mention these three players, if only to check all the boxes, but there are really no plausible scenarios where they end up moving. That’s due in some part to the lack of demand, but also their teams’ stances. Braves GM John Coppolella prefers Freeman to his own right arm; Goldschmidt is one of the most valuable assets in the game and plays for a club that hopes to contend again soon; and Myers constitutes the signature addition of Pads GM A.J. Preller’s tenure. There’s probably at least some minute chance of Myers being dealt, but with possible extension talks on the horizon it’s a poor bet.
That brings us to Abreu, who is in something of his own category. We’ve heard that the White Sox are prepared to listen on most of its roster, and it doesn’t seem that Abreu is being put behind glass with a select few others. He has turned things around after a rough start, and though he no longer looks to be quite the elite asset that he once was, Abreu would still draw significant interest given his affordable control. But I’m still not convinced that Chicago is going to part with the slugger for an equivalent-value package, so I’m shoe-horning him in this category.

Trade Market For Second Basemen

By Steve Adams | July 20, 2016 at 9:15am CDT

While the pitching market is a clear seller’s market this summer, the market for second basemen appears to be another story. The number of potentially available second-base options on losing clubs looks to outweigh the number of clubs looking for a genuine upgrade at second base by a fair margin. The Royals and Blue Jays, for instance, have received poor offensive output from second base as a whole but have strong defenders at those positions right now that are still providing some value. The Pirates haven’t seen much offense at second either but have their fair share of infield depth, and the Cardinals solved some of their second base woes by shifting Matt Carpenter to the position (though Jhonny Peralta’s injury could potentially create a need).

The second base market could be relatively quiet this season barring a notable last-minute injury, but here are some of the possibly available names…

Short-Term Veterans

Steve Pearce (Rays), Eduardo Nunez (Twins)

Pearce isn’t a second baseman in the traditional sense of the word, as he’s been more of a fill-in there over the past couple of seasons in Baltimore and Tampa Bay. The Rays are clear sellers, however, and Pearce has mashed at a .322/.393/.540 clip this season. He’s played just 240 innings at second, so asking him to man the spot regularly down the stretch could be a reach, but his bat could offset his lack of experience there. Plus, he’s earning a bargain $4.8MM on a one-year deal.
Nunez is reportedly among the most frequently asked-about Twins, which is perhaps no surprise given the numbers he’s put up over the past two seasons. While many still think of him as a utility option, Nunez boasts a .790 OPS, 16 homers and 31 stolen bases across his past 155 games in a Twins uniform. He’s earning a mere $1.475MM this season and is eligible for arbitration one final time this winter before hitting free agency following the 2017 season. Nunez could fill in for a team looking for a regular second baseman or bounce around between second base, shortstop, third base and left field. He doesn’t excel defensively at any of those spots, but the versatility is nice.

Controllable Starting Options

Jed Lowrie/Marcus Semien (Athletics), Jean Segura/Chris Owings (D-backs), Yangervis Solarte (Padres), Logan Forsythe (Rays), Brian Dozier (Twins), DJ LeMahieu (Rockies), Jace Peterson (Braves), Jonathan Villar/Scooter Gennett (Brewers)

Lowrie could technically go in the above category as well, but the cheap 2018 club option ($6MM) on his contract prompted me to put him in the “controllable” bucket as opposed to the “short-term” slot. (Plus, I just felt like being than Jeff Todd, who slotted Lowrie into the short-term section of the shortstop trade market.) Lowrie has cooled off as of late, but he’s still hitting .281 with a .333 OBP. His power has been nonexistent for most of the season (.334 slugging, .053 ISO), but he’s affordable, versatile, and owns a .330 OBP over his past five big league seasons. Like Jeff noted when looking at shortstops, I doubt that Semien is actually a likely candidate to be moved, but the A’s are typically willing to listen on everyone but a select few players, so he’s worth at least a mention.
It’s not clear that the D-backs would entertain the notion of moving either of their controllable second base options. Owings is currently on the disabled list and has been for quite some time, which could limit his value. As for Segura, he’s keeping the average just north of .300 thanks in part to a pair of massive BABIP spikes in April and June, though it should be noted that he’s also showing a bit more pop and plate discipline than in years past. The D-backs have only shown a willingness to trade relievers thus far, so moving Segura (controlled through 2018 via arbitration) or Owings (2019) would come as a surprise.
San Diego has already moved James Shields, Fernando Rodney and Drew Pomeranz, and a versatile, controllable asset like Solarte figures to generate interest as well. He has significant experience at both second and third base and despite his status as a minor league signee with the Yankees prior to his big league debut in 2014, he’s done nothing but hit since arriving in the Majors. Solarte has batted .270/.334/.419 as a big leaguer, and his best work has come this season, when he’s slashed .295/.368/.521 in 212 PAs. He’s controllable through 2019, so perhaps the Padres have a greater temptation to hold, but they’ve already traded one cheap young asset that was controlled through 2018 in Pomeranz.
Forsythe has very closely approximated his 2015 breakout in 2016, and he’s combined to bat a hefty .279/.352/.446 with 25 homers in his past 891 plate appearances. He’s fairly pedestrian against right-handed pitching but mashes lefties and plays solid to above-average defense at second (depending on your metric of choice). He’s earning just $1MM this season (the rest of his salary coming via signing bonus), with $5.75MM owed to him in 2017 plus an $8.5MM club option for 2018 that comes with a $1MM buyout.
Dozier’s inclusion may or may not be realistic, but now-former Twins GM Terry Ryan said before his dismissal that he felt the need to be open for business and listen on any player. His interim successor, Rob Antony, could very well be reluctant to listen on Dozier, but given the Twins’ standing, teams will almost certainly check in. The 29-year-old is on the cusp of his third straight 20-homer, 10+ steal season. His .247/.332/.454 batting line in 2016 is indicative of his low-average, plus pop skill set, but he’s sliced his strikeout rate and upped his walk rate this season. Dozier is earning $3MM this year and is owed $6MM in 2017 and $9MM in 2018.
The Rockies have, more often than not, shown a strong resistance to selling off big league assets in July. However, GM Jeff Bridich moved Troy Tulowitzki last summer and was willing to part with a controllable outfielder this winter in Corey Dickerson. There’s no contractual need to move LeMahieu, who is arbitration eligible and controllable through 2018. He’s really upped his offensive game over the past two seasons, though, which should make him appealing to other clubs.
There’s no indication that the Braves are looking to move Peterson, but they’ll listen on virtually anyone and project to have Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies as their long-term double-play tandem as it stands. Peterson could be a fine utility player, but if a club believes his .313/.395/.473 line since being recalled from a demotion to Triple-A is in any way sustainable, the Braves could net a nice piece for a player with four years of control beyond 2016.
Villar has had a breakout season with Milwaukee and is cheap and affordable for another four years following the 2016 season. Orlando Arcia will push him off shortstop soon, but Villar can play third base once that happens. A better question would be if Milwaukee would entertain the thought of moving Scooter Gennett, who is arbitration-eligible this winter and is limited to a platoon role. There’s no urgency to deal Gennett either, but his impending arbitration and lesser club control make him a more plausible option than Villar in my mind.

Reserves and Utility Options

Gregorio Petit/Cliff Pennington/Johnny Giavotella (Angels), Alexi Amarista/Adam Rosales (Padres), Daniel Descalso (Rockies), Andres Blanco/Cesar Hernandez/Freddy Galvis (Phillies), Nick Franklin/Tim Beckham (Rays)

Any of the players listed here could add to a club’s bench mix, but most look like they’d be miscast as starters. There aren’t really any prohibitive salaries in the bunch, and any of the listed names is capable of playing all over the infield, with the possible exception of Giavotella. I don’t think anyone here would fetch much in return, but there’s something to be said for a club deepening its bench in advance of a playoff push.

Big Contracts

Brandon Phillips : Phillips is in somewhat of his own category, as he’s owed $5.26MM through season’s end and another $14MM next year. The Reds would probably love to move him — they tried this offseason but he invoked his 10-and-5 rights to veto the deal — but a 35-year-old hitting .260/.297/.372 with $19.5MM remaining on his contract isn’t going to generate tons of demand. And, as noted before, he hasn’t shown a willingness to approve a trade anyhow.

Trade Market For Shortstops

By Jeff Todd | July 19, 2016 at 12:40pm CDT

The demand side of the shortstop market just isn’t clear. That’s not to suggest that every contender is receiving outstanding production at the position — the Mariners, Royals, and Marlins, in particular, have not. While Seattle might be moved to take action, particularly with Ketel Marte suffering an ankle injury last night, it’s hard to see Kansas City prioritizing that position when it has Alcides Escobar on hand and other needs to address. As for Miami, we’ve heard some suggestion that the club would be willing to move on from Adeiny Hechavarria, though the scenario posited doesn’t sound particularly realistic.

The Royals could always make an addition that would help at both short and second, and it’s that kind of approach that might sway other teams toward some names on this list. Tim Anderson has been useful overall, and Tyler Saladino is still around, but the White Sox could look for depth. The Giants have been looking at infield help and could add a shortstop type that could also see action elsewhere, and there are a handful of others that might fit that profile.

Ultimately, there’s not likely to be much movement at short. But teams that do have interest will be looking at this group of names:

Short-Term Veterans

Zack Cozart (Reds) — Cozart has carried a 108 OPS+ in each of the last two seasons, and while that’s still not a huge sample given his injury-shortened 2015, it represents a full season of above-average offensive production. That’s more than enough bat for a player who is one of the game’s very best defenders. He’s owed less than $3MM this year and comes with another season of control.

Eduardo Nunez (Twins) — It’s a somewhat similar story on the offensive side for Nunez, who has been quite useful at the plate over his last 544 plate appearances dating to the start of 2015 (.304/.337/.464 with 16 home runs and 30 steals). He isn’t the glove magician that Cozart is, but he’s cheaper, offers loads of versatility, and also comes with that extra year.

Jed Lowrie (Athletics) — The 32-year-old hasn’t spent much time at short of late, but was a regular there as recently as 2014. He also isn’t doing much at the plate, with a .282/.332/.345 batting line on the year, and is owed $7.5MM this year with an equal amount to go for 2017 (including the buyout on an option for another season). Lowrie could nevertheless represent a utility option who is capable of playing up the middle.

Alexei Ramirez (Padres), Erick Aybar (Braves), Jimmy Rollins (Free Agent) — All of these players have been solid regulars in the not-so-distant past, but none have shown much in 2016. Still, experience counts down the stretch, and contenders in need of a veteran presence could look here for a bench piece.

Controllable Assets

Jonathan Villar (Brewers), Marcus Semien (Athletics), Brad Miller (Rays), Jean Segura, Chris Owings & Nick Ahmed (Diamondbacks), Jurickson Profar & Elvis Andrus (Rangers), Andrelton Simmons (Angels), Eduardo Escobar (Twins), Freddy Galvis (Phillies)

While all have their warts as players, Villar, Semien, and Miller are all interesting assets. As noted above, there’s not much demand, so it’s hard to see another club doing what it would take to pry these players loose from their respective organizations, who will value them for their low cost and future control. It’s not clear that the Diamondbacks will look to cash in any of their controllable, shortstop-capable infielders, but they’d have some interesting trade pieces if they did.
Profar holds an odd place on this summer’s trade market. He’s playing an important role for a contending team, albeit one that doesn’t strictly need him. It’s a bit strange to place him on this particular list, since Texas likely won’t be swapping him for prospects, but he is performing well right now at the major league level and it isn’t inconceivable that he somehow ends up with a contending club in some kind of creative scenario. There’s an alternative scenario where the Rangers try to move a somewhat resurgent Andrus while shifting Profar to short, but the veteran’s career-best 97 OPS+ still doesn’t make his monster second extension appear to be a very good value — particularly since metrics no longer rate him as an elite baserunner and defender.
I’m not including Simmons here because I think he’ll be marketed. Halos GM Billy Eppler made him the signature move of his first offseason, and it’s difficult to see that happening. But stranger things have occurred, and a contender seeking a top-flight defender with lengthy control rights wouldn’t have any other realistic options.
Escobar is fading at the plate, and the odds are quite high that it’ll make more sense for Minnesota to hold on to him and hope he can turn it back on in the future. Galvis is one of the Phillies’ few trade pieces, though in his case, too, it isn’t an opportune time to act. Philadelphia still needs a bridge to J.P. Crawford and an eventual back-up, and Galvis offers cheap defensive versatility.

Reserves and Utility Options

Andres Blanco (Phillies), Alexi Amarista (Padres), Nick Franklin & Tim Beckham (Rays), Gregorio Petit (Angels), Pete Kozma (Yankees), Chase d’Arnaud & Reid Brignac (Braves), Ivan De Jesus (Reds), Daniel Descalso & Cristhian Adames (Rockies)

Blanco is in the midst of an unlikely blossoming in his early thirties, putting up a .282/.341/.477 batting line in his last 461 plate appearances. He might be the likeliest from this group to be dealt. Otherwise, clubs looking at budget-friendly utility pieces are likely to choose among some of the other grizzled middle infielders listed here, Amarista and Descalso perhaps the most obvious candidates.

Looking For A Match In A Rich Hill Trade

By Mark Polishuk | July 18, 2016 at 11:45pm CDT

Something as small as a blister could have a huge impact on this year’s trade deadline. Rich Hill was forced to leave Sunday’s start against the Blue Jays after just five pitches due to a popped blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, disappointing the many scouts in attendance and bringing into question the status of perhaps the most hotly-pursued starter heading into August 1.

Injury may have been the only thing that could’ve lowered Hill’s trade value at this point. The 36-year-old lefty already missed a month recovering from a groin strain, though he looked good in his first two outings back from the DL. This blister issue already caused Hill’s first post-break start to be pushed back two days, and now Hill believes it will at least a few days before the blister heals well enough for him to throw again. It could be a full week before Hill takes the mound again, leaving him time for perhaps two starts before the trade deadline.

Needless to say, this isn’t a welcome development for an A’s team that was looking to cash in on Hill’s unexpected dominance. Between his four-start emergence for the Red Sox in 2015 and his continued terrific work in 2016, Hill has posted a 2.06 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 3.82 K/BB over his past 105 innings. Hill is a free agent this winter and is owed around $2.3MM for the remainder of the season, making him an easily affordable rental for teams in both large and small markets.

Affordable in salary, that is — not necessarily affordable in terms of the return it will take to pry him out of Oakland. Hill has pitched so well that the A’s could justify issuing him a qualifying offer in order to recoup a first-round compensation draft pick back if Hill signed elsewhere. (Though it’s an interesting question if Hill would accept the QO to lock in a one-year deal in the $16MM range, which would certainly impact the A’s decision to issue the offer.) That means the Athletics’ absolute minimum asking price will be a prospect graded as equal to the value of that comp pick, and the asking price to this point has been much higher; the A’s reportedly initially wanted Anderson Espinoza when the Red Sox inquired about Hill.

The blister and groin strain underline the great unknown that is Hill’s durability, as the 76 innings he’s thrown this year is already the third-highest innings total of his 12-year career. This being said, in a very thin summer market for starting pitching, Hill may still emerge as the top arm available if he is able to recover from his blister and deliver at least one more quality start before the deadline. There’s been so much interest in Hill that the A’s should still be able to find a trade partner, even if their hopes of landing a top-tier prospect may not be realized.

Billy Beane, David Forst and company will probably take the usual route of looking for the best talent available when shopping Hill, Josh Reddick, Danny Valencia or other trade chips before Aug. 1. If the A’s do prioritize a need, Baseball America’s Jim Shonerd (BA subscription required) recently noted that the A’s are thin on minor league outfield talent. That could be a particular area of focus in trade talks, especially if Reddick is also dealt. It’s also not out of the question that Oakland looks to add a Major League player, given that the Athletics have been loath to fully rebuild in the Beane era. While the A’s have struggled over the last two seasons, recent history suggests that they have their eye on rebounding in 2017.

Over a third of the league has been scouting Hill or has been otherwise connected to him in trade rumors, and you can make a case that a few other postseason contenders could also be a fit for the 36-year-old lefty. Let’s try to figure out who might be best-positioned to trade for Hill, beginning with the 11 teams who have already shown interest…

If Hill’s blister impacts Oakland’s price tag, that bodes well for the six clubs (the Blue Jays, Royals, Tigers, Marlins, Orioles and Yankees) who don’t have as much minor league depth as other interested parties. These clubs would probably have lost a pure bidding war for prospects, though if the A’s now look to acquire perhaps just one player they particularly like, that opens up the field. These six are also in relative win-now mode (with the possible exception of the Yankees), which could influence their thinking for a big push for Hill.

The Blue Jays, for instance, have many big names (i.e. Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, R.A. Dickey) scheduled for free agency, so if this is the Jays’ last run at contention with this core group, counting on Drew Hutchison or a stretched-out Jesse Chavez to replace Aaron Sanchez seems especially risky. Sanchez has a team-high 2.5 fWAR in his breakout season, so if the Jays stick to their plan of shifting the young righty to the bullpen to limit his innings, it leaves a big hole in the rotation that Hutchison and Chavez are unlikely to fill.

The Jays dealt so many top prospects in their 2015 deadline moves that the cupboard is a little bare, plus it was former GM Alex Anthopoulos who made those moves, not the current front office led by Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins. That being said, it’s not uncommon for new management to deal prospects drafted by an old regime; Shapiro/Atkins may have a lower opinion of some Toronto minor leaguers than Anthopoulos did, so those youngsters could be shopped. Likewise, the four free agents I mentioned earlier could all be issued qualifying offers, so while the Jays could lose some current prospects now to land Hill, they could reload with at least a couple of compensation picks in the 2017 draft.

The Royals will face a potential free agent exodus of similar proportions after the 2017 season, when the likes of Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis and Mike Moustakas can all hit the open market. So K.C. has, realistically, a two-year window of contention with its current group, and to even further capitalize on this terrific chapter in club history, the Royals could look to replicate last year’s big deadline moves for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist. This is just my speculation, but since the Royals have also been linked to Reddick, a blockbuster that brings both Hill and Reddick to Kansas City at the cost of multiple top prospects could be worth exploring for both the Royals and A’s. A mid-market team like the Royals can hardly afford to be cavalier with its prospects, of course, so it really comes down to whether or not the club is prepared to more or less rebuild after 2017 in the name of chasing another pennant or World Series this year and next.

The Tigers know a few things about mortgaging the future in search of immediate contention, and years of dealing prospects has left their farm system in unimpressive shape — neither Baseball America or MLB.com has any Detroit players in their rankings of the game’s top 100 minor leaguers. It’s hard to totally count the Tigers out on Hill given their history of veteran additions but it’s possible their system may now simply be too depleted to outbid anyone. Obviously, Detroit isn’t going to part with a young player like Michael Fulmer who is already making a huge contribution at the MLB level.

The Marlins are only “all-in” in the sense that Jeffrey Loria is rather unpredictable, and he may be particularly keen to make a deadline push now that his team finally looks to be back in contention. Miami’s young core is (on paper) impressive enough to keep the Fish in the NL East race for years, so dealing one or two of their few highly-touted minor leaguers for Hill in a 2016 run might not make sense, and that’s assuming that the Marlins have enough trade bait to get Oakland’s attention.

The Orioles don’t have the short window of the Jays or Royals, though Mark Trumbo and Matt Wieters are free agents this offseason. Like Toronto, the O’s could let at least one of their free agents walk to gain a compensation pick, thus perhaps freeing them up to deal one of their few top-tier prospects now for Hill.

Baltimore’s powerful lineup has put it atop the AL East even with one of the game’s worst rotations, so adding Hill (who also provides some balance within the all-righty O’s staff) could give them just enough starting help to slug their way into World Series contention. Dan Duquette hasn’t shied away from adding rental players (Gerardo Parra, Andrew Miller, Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Feldman) at the deadline over the last few seasons. That said, Hill’s health issues are surely red flags for a franchise that has been so infamously picky about pitchers’ injury histories.

The biggest question facing the Yankees, of course, isn’t whether or not they’ll pursue Hill, but rather if they’ll be deadline buyers whatsoever. It may be at least another week before New York decides if it is selling or buying on Aug. 1, though if they did decide to go for it, Hill — who briefly pitched for the Yankees in 2014 — would greatly boost a rotation that has shown a lot of inconsistency behind Masahiro Tanaka. At this point, I’m leaning towards the Yankees selling, so let’s move onto the teams with more significant prospect depth.

The Cubs and A’s have collaborated on four trades since Theo Epstein came to Wrigleyville, including one summer blockbuster. Between the two clubs’ familiarity and all of the prospects the Cubs can offer, Chicago would seem like the favorite for Hill….except for the fact that starting depth isn’t exactly a priority. Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel comprise one of the game’s best rotations, plus Adam Warren is on hand as a swingman. Durability isn’t an issue, as the top five have made all but one start in the first half. The Cubs’ scouting of Hill could be a case of due diligence rather than a distinct need, unless they want to have as much starting depth as possible on hand as they pursue a championship.

The Dodgers’ interest in Hill could also be somewhat exploratory since L.A. has several starting options on hand once everyone gets healthy. Clayton Kershaw’s return from the DL will be the biggest boost of all, and Alex Wood and Brett Anderson are also scheduled to be back in August. Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy are already back pitching after lengthy absences, so if anything, the Dodgers could have a bit of a rotation logjam.

The Rangers and Athletics have had a rather healthy trade history in recent years, which is unusual for division rivals. None of those deals involved swapping top prospects for an established player, however, so Texas could certainly have some misgivings about seeing one of their minor league stars in a green-and-yellow jersey, haunting them for years to come. Since the Rangers are looking at virtually every available pitcher leading up to the deadline, they could prefer a pitcher who is controlled beyond 2016 (like, for instance, Jake Odorizzi or Matt Moore) rather than a rental like Hill.

The Pirates are in the strange position of trying to both add and trade starting pitchers at the same time. Jeff Locke and Jon Niese are being shopped, as the Bucs are hopeful that young arms like Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl can beef up the back of the rotation. Of course, the front of the rotation isn’t exactly in solid shape either thanks to injuries (particularly to Gerrit Cole) and Francisco Liriano’s struggles. Hill would add some much-needed stability to what has been a disappointing Pirates staff. Pittsburgh is another smaller-market team that would think hard before dealing a notable prospect for a deadline rental, and Locke/Niese would have limited trade appeal for the A’s as part of a package for Hill. Taillon and Glasnow aren’t going anywhere, though perhaps lesser-regarded minor leaguers like Brault or Kuhl could be involved.

Though the Red Sox addressed their pitching woes by acquiring Drew Pomeranz from the Padres for Espinoza, it’s still possible Boston could seek out a reunion with Hill by dealing from deeper within their stockpile of quality prospects. Installing Hill and Pomeranz as the fourth and fifth starters would allow the Sox to give Eduardo Rodriguez more minor league seasoning, or use him in the bullpen along with other relief-relegated starters Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly.

Looking at the teams who aren’t known to have interest in Hill, the Cardinals and Indians can very probably be eliminated from contention since their rotations are already set. The Nationals can also likely be added to this group, provided that Joe Ross makes his expected return from the DL before the end of the month. The White Sox could use Hill with Carlos Rodon out of action, though Chicago doesn’t have much in minor league trade chips. If the White Sox do pursue a deadline upgrade, it is perhaps more likely to be a bat than an arm.

The Mets are said to be more focused on bullpen additions than rotation help at the deadline, plus they could be another team hesitant about dealing minor league pieces for a rental player. That said, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are both dealing with bone spurs in their elbows, and if either of those situations worsen, the Mets might suddenly look at adding a starter (especially with Matt Harvey already out for the season).

The inter-division trade hesitation I mentioned earlier in regards to the Rangers could also apply to the Mariners and Astros, though Seattle may not have the prospect depth to land Hill and Houston may not have the need. The M’s have Felix Hernandez and (Seattle hopes) Taijuan Walker both soon returning from the DL to help their ailing rotation, so the Mariners could pursue a reliever or a hitter rather than Hill, if they end up being buyers at all. The Astros’ rotation has been more sturdy than impressive this season, though they have enough starting options on hand that they probably won’t bid on Hill.

That leaves the Giants, and there’s probably a better chance of the A’s dealing Hill within the AL West than there is of dealing him within the Bay Area. Oakland and San Francisco are very infrequent trade partners, which could explain why we haven’t heard about a link between Hill and the Giants despite their search for starting pitching. (The ongoing territorial rights dispute about the Athletics’ attempted move to San Jose surely doesn’t help relations.)

If the two local rivals did decide to collaborate, the Giants would be a good fit as a trade partner. The Giants have enough interesting prospects that they could afford to move one as the headliner of a Hill trade package, plus they have a rotation hole since Matt Cain is far from a sure thing at this point in his career. Reddick is already getting some attention for the Giants’ outfield, so who knows, maybe there’s a chance of a mega-deal between the two clubs if the A’s can stomach the idea of watching another #EvenYear celebration.

With two weeks until the deadline, pretty much every scenario is still in play at this point. Hill could end up being dealt for a surprisingly large return, or it’s just as possible that injuries scuttle his market and the A’s will have to shop him in the August waiver period. Since everything about Hill’s career over the last 11 months has been so unpredictable, it’s perhaps only fitting that his trade value is still totally up in the air.

Photo courtesy of Kenny Karst/USA Today Sports Images

Knocking Down The Door: Berrios, Crawford, Dahl, Haniger, Peterson

By Jason Martinez | July 18, 2016 at 7:02pm CDT

This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features five 1st Round picks from the 2012 and 2013 drafts, three of which were recently named to Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100 Prospect list.

Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester)

When we last discussed Jose Berrios here three weeks ago, he had just tossed eight shutout innings in his 10th Triple-A start of the season while a couple of Twins’ starters were hanging on to rotation spots by the skin of their teeth.

Since, Berrios has allowed just four earned runs in 27.2 innings with seven walks and 27 strikeouts in four starts. In 11 of his 14 starts, the 22-year-old has allowed two earned runs or less. He’s allowed four hits or less in 10 of those starts.

In the meantime, the Twins’ rotation hasn’t been horrible over the past few weeks. But they’re not exactly inspiring increased ticket sales or excitement for what the future holds.

Now that general manager Terry Ryan has been fired, interim general manager Rob Antony’s first line of business should be to add a very talented young pitcher and future staff ace to one of the most pedestrian rotations in baseball.

Twins Depth Chart

J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley)

Expectations for any highly-touted shortstop prospect will be immense thanks to Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager. All were top prospects. All became MLB superstars almost immediately. That pressure could soon fall on J.P. Crawford, the No. 3 overall prospect in Baseball America’s recently-released Midseason Top 100 and No. 1 shortstop ahead of Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman.

After a slow start to his Triple-A career, the 21-year-old Crawford has been on fire with a .314 batting average (44-for-140), nine doubles, one triple and three homers since June 11th. He’s also sporting a nifty 52-to-53 walk-to-strikeout ratio between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016, which I’m pretty sure will translate to much better than what Freddy Galvis is currently doing with the Phillies (13 walks, 73 strikeouts).

While there is a benefit of starting Crawford’s service time clock a few weeks into the 2017 season instead of anytime this season—assuming he is in the Major Leagues for good, he would be under team control through 2023 instead of 2022—the expectations and pressure would be minimal with his team no longer in playoff contention. Call him up now and he could have nearly a half-season of big league experience under his belt by next April.

Phillies Depth Chart

David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies (Triple-A Albuquerque)

Regardless of whether the Rockies trade Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl will very likely be in the Rockies’ starting lineup in the near future. At least he deserves to be, even if it means that Gerardo Parra will be a very expensive fourth outfielder once he returns from the disabled list.

The 22-year-old Dahl has been able to put the 2015 season, in which he lost his spleen in an outfield collision, behind him. After posting an .867 OPS with 13 homers and 16 stolen bases for Double-A Hartford, Dahl has turned it up a few notches since a promotion to Triple-A. In 10 games, the left-handed hitting center fielder is 21-for-41 with five homers, four doubles and one triple.

Dahl also has six walks and five strikeouts, which is encouraging, even in such a small sample size, considering that he had a 39-to-84 walk-to-strikeout ratio in Double-A. He also walked 11 times with 81 strikeouts at the same level last season, so he seems to be making adjustments as he closes in on the big leagues.

Rockies Depth Chart

Mitch Haniger, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno)

The window might be very small with Chris Owings and David Peralta close to returning from the disabled list, but Mitch Haniger has earned a chance to show the Diamondbacks what he can do before he’s buried on their outfield depth chart for good.

Acquired from the Brewers along with Futures Game selection Anthony Banda in the July 2014 trade for Gerardo Parra, the 25-year-old Haniger had put up solid numbers across the board in High-A Visalia and Double-A Mobile. Now with Triple-A Reno, he’s making it difficult for the D’backs to ignore him much longer.

With Michael Bourn, Brandon Drury and Yasmany Tomas doing very little in the competition for the lone outfield spot that won’t be filled by Owings and Peralta in the near future, Haniger has put together a .367/.432/.719 slash line while playing all three outfield spots in 35 Triple-A games. Hitter-friendly league or not, that kind of production should open some eyes within the organization.

Diamondbacks Depth Chart

D.J. Peterson, 1B, Seattle Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma)

Adam Lind’s disappointing season has opened up an opportunity for D.J. Peterson and he’s taking full advantage. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2013 draft has homered in back-to-back games for Tacoma, giving him five in 15 games since being promoted from Double-A Jackson, where he posted an .805 OPS with 11 homers and 21 doubles in 73 games.

The 24-year-old Peterson was primarily a third baseman until last season, when he started more games at first base. Not coincidentally, Kyle Seager had signed a long-term extension during the previous offseason so any chance of Peterson ever being the Mariners third baseman were pretty much eliminated. His chances of ever making it to the big leagues at all also suffered. After all, there’s no future for a first baseman who posts a .636 OPS in Double-A.

But the right-handed batter has bounce back nicely in 2016 and could find himself in Seattle — particularly if the club isn’t able to turn things around in the next two weeks.

Mariners Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

15 Short-Term Signings Paying Dividends

By Connor Byrne | July 17, 2016 at 10:26am CDT

While stars like David Price, Zack Greinke and Jason Heyward grabbed the lion’s share of attention during free agency last offseason, plenty of players have emerged as key cogs this year after settling for contracts of significantly less value over the winter. Steve Adams of MLBTR touched on the top minor league signings of 2016 earlier this week, so we’ll avoid those 10 names. Jeff Todd then examined several other cheap offseason pickups, including Pirates free agent addition David Freese, and we’ll also leave him out of the discussion.

For this exercise, we’ll order the list from the earliest signing to the latest and focus on one- and two-year deals. As you’ll see, there’s no shortage of low-cost, high-impact talent from last year’s pool of free agents.

Nov. 13, 2015 – Marco Estrada Signs Two-Year Deal With Blue Jays:

Well before fellow free agent starters Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Ian Kennedy landed long-term commitments worth between $70MM and $80MM, Estrada inked a modest pact (two years, $26MM) to remain in Toronto shortly after the market opened. Although he posted personal-best marks in ERA (3.13) and innings pitched (181) in 2015, there was skepticism surrounding Estrada’s success because of an underwhelming K/BB ratio (2.38), unusually low batting average on balls in play (.216), high strand rate (79.2 percent) and subpar ground-ball rate (32.2 percent). So far this year, Estrada’s K/BB ratio (2.54), BABIP (.193), strand rate (80.3) and grounder average (34.4) continue pointing to a substantial amount of good fortune related to his ERA (2.93), which is at a meager 3.06 in 285 1/3 career frames as a Jay. Not surprisingly, then, there’s a notable discrepancy in Estrada’s WAR figures dating back to last season. The 33-year-old ranks 37th among starters in fWAR (3.7), but he’s 12th – wedged between aces Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale – in results-based RA9-WAR (7.8).

Estrada is dominating with both his fastball and changeup, as FanGraphs shows, and although he allows plenty of fly balls, they don’t travel far. The ex-Brewer’s 17.6 percent infield fly percentage leads all starters. Thanks in part to that, Estrada has yielded less distance on his fly balls than the vast majority of starters, per Baseball Heat Maps, and fly balls that don’t take long trips often lead to outs. It also helps to have a Kevin Pillar-led outfield defense supporting you, as Estrada does.

With so few hitters able to solve Estrada, his batting line against this season is a ridiculous .171/.252/.332. Expecting Estrada to stifle offense anywhere near that well going forward is likely too much to ask, particularly when factoring in his current lower back troubles, but it’s still fair to say Toronto hauled in one of the offseason’s greatest bargains when it re-signed him.

Nov. 17, 2015 – Athletics Sign Rich Hill:

Prior to last September, Hill hadn’t made a major league start since 2009. Between 2007-15, the southpaw appeared in the majors with seven different teams – including multiple stints with the Red Sox – and toiled with a host of minor league clubs. As recently as last August, Hill was in the independent Atlantic League as a member of the Long Island Ducks. The Red Sox then brought back Hill on a minor league deal in mid-August, and they summoned him to the majors a month later. Beginning Sept. 13, Hill went on a four-start rampage that saw him strike out 32 hitters, walk five and compile a 1.55 ERA across 29 innings. Hill parlayed that three-week run into the richest payday of his career when he agreed to a one-year, $6MM deal with the Athletics, who have reaped the rewards of his 2016 excellence and are now in position to turn him into one or more useful future pieces by the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Now that Drew Pomeranz is off the market, the 36-year-old Hill could end up as the best starter to change hands in the next two weeks. The curveball- and fastball-loving Hill warrants the hype, too, having amassed a 2.25 ERA, 10.66 K/9, 50 percent ground-ball rate and 14.5 percent infield fly mark in 76 innings this year. Who wouldn’t sign up for those numbers at a $6MM price?

Nov. 25, 2015 – Braves Sign Bud Norris:

The right-handed Norris isn’t exactly an exciting name, but the rebuilding Braves deserve credit for signing a short-term filler piece for a drop in the bucket ($2.5MM) and turning him into possible long-term help a few months into the season. After Norris split time between their bullpen and rotation and recorded a 4.22 ERA in 70 1/3 innings, the Braves sold as high on him as they figured possible when they dealt the 31-year-old to the Dodgers for two prospects on June 30. One of those prospects, lefty Phil Pfeifer, was a third-round pick just a year ago. For his part, Norris has held his own since ditching a changeup for a cutter in June – as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote a couple weeks ago – and won’t have to take such an inexpensive deal during the upcoming offseason if he continues as a quality option in LA.

Dec. 17, 2015 – Indians Sign Rajai Davis:

There was fear entering the season that the Indians’ Michael Brantley-less outfield would hold back the prospective playoff contenders, but Davis has helped the Tribe jump ahead of the AL Central pack. In his first 308 plate appearances of the year, Davis has batted a respectable .260/.320/.423 with a career-high nine home runs. Combine that with 24 steals in 27 attempts and strong defense, particularly in left field, and you have a player whose 2016 contributions FanGraphs values at $16.2MM – nearly $11MM more than his $5.25MM base salary. Outfield work done by Davis, rookie sensation Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jose Ramirez and even now-suspended PED offender Marlon Byrd has helped Cleveland thrive without Brantley, who has missed all but 11 games because of right shoulder issues.

Dec. 17, 2015 – Pirates Re-Sign Sean Rodriguez:

Rodriguez’s biggest selling point has long been his ability to play several different positions, which has continued to be the case this season. The 30-year-old has suited up at every position except catcher and pitcher in 2016, and he has appeared in double-digit games at first base, second base, shortstop and right field. The 2016 version of Rodriguez has mixed that versatility with far better offensive production than usual, having batted .260/.340/.521 through 192 PAs. That line is appreciably better than Rodriguez’s .231/.299/.383 career mark in 2,281 trips to the plate, and he has already reached the 10-homer plateau this season for just the second time. Rodriguez – who’s also walking in 9.4 percent of PAs (up a lofty 7.3 percent from last year’s measly 2.1) – is on a team-friendly $2.5MM salary, giving the playoff-contending Pirates three offseason dollar store standouts in him, Freese and minor league signing Matt Joyce.

Dec. 18, 2015 – Mets Re-Sign Bartolo Colon:

When Colon accepted a one-year, $7.25MM offer from the Mets last winter to return for his age-43 season, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported that he left better offers on the table from elsewhere to remain in New York. The Mets are fortunate he did because not only can Colon hit home runs and field his position with aplomb, the righty’s also filling the role of a capable starter yet again. In 104 1/3 innings this year, Colon has pitched to a stingy 3.11 ERA while continuing to keep walks at a minimum (1.64 per nine). His output has been especially valuable with Matt Harvey’s struggles and subsequent season-ending injury, not to mention recent health questions surrounding Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Even if the fastball-tossing Colon regresses toward ERA estimators like FIP (4.05), xFIP (4.12) and SIERA (4.38) over the season’s second half, he’ll still be worth what the Mets paid him, and that’s without considering the surplus value the club has already collected from him in 2016.

Dec. 18, 2015 – Rangers Re-Sign Colby Lewis:

Unfortunately for Lewis and the Rangers, the right-hander went on the shelf for at least a couple months when he suffered a strained lat muscle toward the end of June. When healthy, he logged a terrific 3.21 ERA in 98 innings, served as a top two starter on the Rangers’ shaky staff, and easily lived up to the $6MM the club gave him during the offseason. Lewis was getting by without many strikeouts (5.6 per nine innings), but he generally avoided walks (1.74 per nine) and, despite not having pitched since June 21, still ranks tied for 18th in the league in RA9-WAR (3.0). It’s unknown how much Lewis will contribute when he comes back from injury, but the 36-year-old has already played a critical role for a team with a four-game advantage in its division.

Dec. 30, 2015 – Orioles Sign Hyun Soo Kim:

Kim emigrated from the extremely hitter-friendly Korea Baseball Organization to the majors for a two-year, $7MM contract with the Orioles, but he came close to never even taking a meaningful at-bat in the States. After an awful spring showing, the possibility of the Orioles selling Kim back to the KBO or at least sending him to the minors came up, though he ultimately stayed on the O’s roster and has so far been a resounding success. The lefty-swinging Kim, whom the Orioles have deployed almost exclusively against righties, has slashed a fantastic .329/.410/.454 in his first 173 major league PAs. While Kim’s .370 BABIP won’t last, the 28-year-old has helped his cause by hitting the ball hard and consistently putting it in play. Kim’s 10.4 percent walk rate is nearly in line with his 12.7 percent strikeout mark, so it appears that the Orioles at least have a patient, high-contact platoon weapon on their hands. Not bad for an average of $3.5MM per year.

Jan. 11, 2016 – Cardinals Sign Seung-hwan Oh:

The Cardinals signed Oh, also known by the enviable nicknames “Stone Buddha” and “Final Boss,” to a deal worth a max of two years and $11MM after he established himself as a force in both Korea and Japan. Oh’s brilliance has carried over to the majors, too, as he’s 17th among relievers in ERA (1.75) and 11th in K-BB percentage (26.1) through 46 1/3 innings. The Korea native’s emergence has been even more fortuitous for the Cardinals in light of the unexpectedly terrible season Trevor Rosenthal has endured, leading the 33-year-old Oh to recently take the helm as the Cardinals’ closer. The Cards have already extracted $11.7MM in value from the lights-out Oh, FanGraphs indicates, which is slightly more than the worth of his multiyear accord.

Jan. 19, 2016 – Dodgers Sign Joe Blanton:

After quietly turning in an excellent season in relief for the Royals and Pirates last year, Blanton took the Dodgers’ $4MM offer and has been even better in 2016. The longtime starter has piled up 48 1/3 innings, the sixth-highest total among relievers this year, and pitched to a 2.05 ERA. Blanton has backed that figure with 9.05 K/9 against 2.61 BB/9 while forming a nearly unbeatable late-game trio with Kenley Jansen and Adam Liberatore.

Jan. 20, 2016 – Padres Sign Fernando Rodney:

As was the case with the Braves and Norris, the rebuilding Padres deserve plaudits for taking a low-cost, short-term flyer on a veteran and then shipping him to a contender for an interesting futures piece a few months later. In the Padres’ case, they dealt Rodney to the Marlins on June 30 for hard-throwing, well-regarded pitching prospect Chris Paddack. The 39-year-old Rodney was never going to aid a winning Padres team, but the same might not be true of Paddack. Rodney, on the other hand, accepted a cheap contract in base value from the Padres (but one with lots of incentives) and has since registered a nearly spotless 1.01 ERA across 35 2/3 frames. Projection systems like ZIPs and Steamer forecast an ERA in the mid-3s during the second half, which would still render Rodney quite useful, but it’s clear the Padres wanted to move on from him at peak value. His ERA has already climbed .70 points since he switched uniforms, so it appears the Friars did just that.

Jan. 28, 2016 – Rays Sign Steve Pearce:

While with the Orioles in 2014, Pearce hit .293/.373/.556 with 21 homers and totaled a stunning 4.9 fWAR in just 381 PAs. The longtime minor leaguer was unable to follow up on that in 2015, however, as he hit a disappointing .218/.289/.422 in 325 plate trips. That led Pearce, 33, to take a one-year, $4.25MM deal from the Rays, with whom the infielder and designated hitter was in the midst of revisiting his 2014 form before going on the disabled list June 21 with a strained hamstring. Pearce quietly batted .322/.393/.540 with nine homers in 196 PAs prior to the injury and started to draw trade chatter as a result. He should still garner interest if he returns by the deadline, making last-place Tampa Bay’s minimal investment in him all the more worthwhile.

Jan. 28, 2016 – Astros Sign Doug Fister:

Fister, 32, doesn’t possess the skills he had during his heyday from 2011-14, but the 6-foot-8 righty still generates grounders (48.5 percent), ranks toward the top of the league in average fly ball distance, and leads all Astros starters in ERA (3.64) through 111 1/3 innings. An below-average K/BB ratio (1.82), .257 BABIP (34 points lower than Fister’s career mark) and a high strand rate (78.5 percent) are worrisome going forward. However, during a season in which Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers have struggled to prevent runs and Lance McCullers has only made 11 starts, the Astros have gotten bang for their buck from their one-year, $7MM investment in Fister.

Feb. 25, 2016 – Cubs Re-Sign Dexter Fowler:

The 30-year-old Fowler was a competent big leaguer for several seasons before 2016, so he shouldn’t have had difficulty finding work. However, his attachment to first-round compensation via the qualifying offer system helped keep him dangling on the free agent market past the start of spring training. Finally, in the last week of February, Fowler returned to the Cubs on a one-year, $8MM pact – including a $9MM mutual option for 2017 or a $5MM buyout – but only after spurning the Orioles. With Fowler having hit .290/.398/.483 through 284 PAs this season, the Cubs can probably forget about retaining him next year via that inexpensive mutual option. The center fielder should instead be able to net a lucrative multiyear deal on the North Side of Chicago or someplace else. For now, though, Fowler’s a valuable, underpaid member of a World Series-contending club.

Feb. 29, 2016 – Rangers Sign Ian Desmond:

Like Fowler, the qualifying offer system had a hand in keeping Desmond out of work until the end of February. The fact that Desmond’s performance dropped off a cliff last year with the Nationals obviously didn’t help matters, either. Regardless, for $8MM, Desmond has certainly been a steal for the Rangers, who gambled by moving him from shortstop to the outfield. In response, the 30-year-old has been one of the league’s premier defensive center fielders this season, and he has complemented that aspect of his game with marvelous production at the plate (.316/.370/.514, 15 home runs in 392 PAs) and on the base paths (15 stolen bases in 18 tries). This version of Desmond is a star-caliber player who will soon earn money commensurate to that. Until then, Texas will continue enjoying his all-around mastery at a discounted cost.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | July 17, 2016 at 8:00am CDT

Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered this week:

Steve Adams highlighted the 10 best minor league signings of 2016. Pirates outfielder Matt Joyce, Mariners first baseman Dae-ho Lee and Padres left-handed reliever Ryan Buchter are among those who have made notable impacts this year despite initially having to claw for major league roster spots.
This week’s installment of Jason Martinez’s “Knocking Down the Door” series features a few well-known prospects who are trying to force their way into the majors. Astros infielder Alex Bregman and Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi are two names from an excellent group.
With the first half of the season in the books, Jeff Todd polled readers on which low-cost offseason acquisition has panned out the best so far. One of the choices, left-hander Drew Pomeranz, went from the Athletics to the Padres by way of a trade that Oakland surely wants back. After stealing Pomeranz from the A’s over the winter, the rebuilding Padres sold high on the 27-year-old earlier this week, sending him to the Red Sox for top-tier pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza.
Deadline season is in full swing, so Steve analyzed the trade market for catchers. Brewers backstop Jonathan Lucroy is far and away the premier option for teams on the hunt for help at the position.
Similarly, Jeff examined the selection of starting pitchers whom teams could shop over the next two weeks. Athletics southpaw Rich Hill will likely end up as the most appealing rental available, while there are several intriguing younger starters with club control remaining who could switch uniforms.
Teams that are competing for playoff berths will need to figure out which areas on their rosters to address around the deadline. With that in mind, Jason pinpointed all the contending clubs’ main needs (AL, NL).

Playoff Contender Needs (National League)

By Jason Martinez | July 15, 2016 at 5:36pm CDT

Yesterday, I analyzed the most pressing needs for the 11 American League playoff contenders just in time for the Red Sox to fill their starting rotation void with the acquisition of Drew Pomeranz. If we’re lucky, one of these eight National League contenders will follow suit and give us another early Trade Deadline present this weekend.

NL EAST

Washington Nationals
54-36, 1st Place, +6
CENTER FIELDER/LEADOFF MAN

Ben Revere has a .268 on-base percentage and still has the privilege of being the starting center fielder and leadoff man for a 1st place team that is 18 games over .500. What does that tell us? For starters, Nationals manager Dusty Baker apparently doesn’t care if his leadoff man gets on base or not. It also means that the Nationals’ lineup and most of the 25-man roster is filled with talent, which is why Baker probably doesn’t lose much sleep over his leadoff man’s inability to be good at the most important aspect of his job.

In all seriousness, the Nats are well aware that they are in need of an upgrade, which is why Trea Turner, who is blocked by Danny Espinosa at the shortstop position, was playing center field in Triple-A before he was recently called up to replace an injured Ryan Zimmerman on the roster. While he could be given a shot as the Nats’ regular center fielder at some point, general manager Mike Rizzo is likely to first explore the trade market, where Charlie Blackmon, Peter Bourjos, Coco Crisp, Jon Jay (likely to return from the disabled list sometime in August) and Melvin Upton Jr. are all likely available. And all are having much better seasons than Revere or his platoon partner, Michael Taylor.

Nationals Depth Chart

Miami Marlins
47-41, Wild Card (2nd-T), +1
STARTING PITCHING

Mention the Marlins to a baseball fan and the first thing that comes to their mind is the amazing power of Giancarlo Stanton. It really is quite breathtaking, after all. But the most interesting part of this up-and-coming young team is that they have five regulars not named Stanton hitting over .300. Even 42-year-old Ichiro Suzuki, who has played on a semi-regular basis, is hitting .335 and having his best season since he was in his mid-30’s. The bullpen, which now includes Fernando Rodney setting up for All-Star closer A.J. Ramos, is also talented and a lot of fun to watch.

Unfortunately, unless Jose Fernandez can pitch more than once every five days, the Marlins’ rotation isn’t good enough to make a legitimate run for a Wild Card spot. The fact that they’ve pushed Fernandez back a few times to limit his workload makes the rotation that much more of a priority. Wei-Yin Chen, who signed a potential $80MM free agent deal in the offseason, can’t seem to string together more than one good start. If not for Adam Conley, there’s no way the Marlins would be in the mix for a playoff spot.

Rich Hill and Jake Odorizzi are on their radar, as was the recently-traded Drew Pomeranz, but it’s likely that they’ll cast a wide net in hopes that they can acquire some help despite a farm system that is currently light on talent.

Marlins Depth Chart

New York Mets
47-41, Wild Card (2nd-T), +1
STARTING PITCHING

David Wright could miss the season with a herniated disc in his neck. Lucas Duda is out for an extended period with a stress fracture in his back. Michael Conforto was sent to the minors because he stopped hitting. So can you believe that the Mets’ top priority might be starting pitching?

While they are reportedly prioritizing their bullpen at the moment, they will need to address their very fragile rotation at some point. Matt Harvey’s season-ending surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, Zack Wheeler’s delayed return from Tommy John surgery—he’s not expected back before late August—and bone spurs in the elbows of young stars Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz should have the Mets looking to land at least one reinforcement and possibly two.

Mets Depth Chart

***Click below to read breakdowns of all the other NL contenders***

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs
53-35, 1st Place, +7
RELIEF PITCHING, IF THAT

On paper, the Cubs probably have the best 25-man roster in baseball. They’re pretty good between the lines, too, as they’ve compiled the second best record in baseball. But a team that won just six of 21 games heading into the break isn’t without a weakness.

Jason Heyward is probably the most disappointing Cub, although Miguel Montero and Justin Grimm have also underperformed. But with rookie Willson Contreras in the mix at catcher and in the outfield, and Heyward likely to figure things out—he’s 10-for-28 since being moved down in the order to the No. 6 spot—I doubt that the Cubs are too worried.

While Travis Wood has pitched effectively in the 7th inning setup role that Grimm failed to hold down and Joe Nathan has shown well in his Minor League rehab assignment and could join the team soon, it probably wouldn’t hurt to add one more reliable late-inning arm to pair with Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop.

Cubs Depth Chart

St. Louis Cardinals
46-42, Wild Card (4th), -1
RELIEF PITCHING, IF THAT

Carlos Martinez continues to move closer to “ace” status, but the other four starters in the Cardinals’ rotation have ERAs over 4.00. Trevor Rosenthal lost his closer’s job and Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk, who were expected to take big steps forward in ’16, were both demoted to the minors for short periods of time due to poor performance. And yet, the Cardinals have quietly hung around in the pennant race.

When Brandon Moss and Matt Carpenter return from the disabled list, this is a very balanced and productive offense. Wong and Grichuk have been better since returning. The lineup should be fine, as should the rotation. Their starting five is healthy, which is more than most teams can say, and they’re talented and battle-tested.

Seung-hwan Oh has been terrific in his first MLB season and that should continue regardless of whether he’s the closer or setup man. Kevin Siegrist and Jonathan Broxton are reliable setup men. Top prospect Alex Reyes is also an intriguing option in a late-inning role just in case Rosenthal cannot regain his form. Or they can trade for one more proven reliever. Not a very convincing case, but this is still an impressive roster despite the less-than-stellar results.

Cardinals Depth Chart

Pittsburgh Pirates
46-43, Wild Card (5th), -1.5
STARTING PITCHING

Since dropping to five games under .500 on June 23rd, the Pirates have gone on a 13-4 run to re-introduce themselves as legitimate playoff contenders once again. Interestingly, the’ve called up three top prospects in recent weeks who could play a major role in the 2nd half.

If this trio — first baseman Josh Bell and starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon — are the reinforcements, then the Pirates could pass on adding any more talent via the trade market. In fact, indications are that they’re shopping Jon Niese and Jeff Locke, which would ensure that at least one of Glasnow and Taillon have spots. Niese being moved to the bullpen today also makes it a pretty good bet.

However, Gerrit Cole, who is set to return from the disabled list on Saturday, has been the team’s lone reliable starter and leaning heavily on rookie starting pitchers in a pennant race isn’t ideal. A veteran rental who can at least do better than what Niese and Locke are giving them could improve their chances to return to the post-season for a fourth consecutive season.

Pirates Depth Chart

NL WEST

San Francisco Giants
57-33, 1st Place, +6.5
STARTING PITCHING, MAYBE

It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Giants have the best record in baseball. They’re a solid team with plenty of talent and leadership and a great manager. And despite the injury gods doing everything possible to stop the trend of the Giants winning the World Series every other season, they still keep rolling along.

Most of the major players with health concerns seem to be on the mend, but the rotation remains a bit of a question mark. If they can get a healthy Matt Cain back in the 2nd half—he’s currently on a rehab assignment—I don’t see any reason to mess with a good thing. That’s a big “if”, though, since the veteran righty is increasingly removed from his days as a top-of-the-rotation workhorse.

With such a big lead in the NL West, they have time to wait out Cain. But if he struggles upon returning, general manager Bobby Evans might set his sights on the trade market.

Giants Depth Chart

Los Angeles Dodgers
51-40, Wild Card (1st), +2.5
OUTFIELDER

The Dodgers have plenty of depth and talent at the Major League level and down on the farm, which has helped them during their current 23-10 run despite a string of injuries to key players. At full strength, they might not necessarily have a glaring need, unless you really aren’t a believer in the unbelievable job that Joe Blanton and Adam Liberatore have done as the setup men for All-Star closer Kenley Jansen. But a closer look at the offense, which is ranked 25th in the majors in OPS, points out the weakness — which is in the corner outfield.

Yasiel Puig’s production since returning from the disabled list (19-for-60, 2 HR, 8 BB, 10 K) is encouraging and Howie Kendrick finished the 1st half on a high note by going 13-for-37 with six doubles in his last ten games. But Trayce Thompson has struggled over the past month and we don’t know how productive Andre Ethier will be when he finally makes his 2016 debut.

In a quote provided by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the team is focused on acquiring “elite-level” players. That doesn’t sound like they’re planning a few tweaks here and there to shore up the bench and bullpen. Jay Bruce and Josh Reddick would fit nicely in the Dodgers’ lineup, although it wouldn’t surprise me to see a blockbuster deal, possibly involving a third team with Puig and others going elsewhere.

Dodgers Depth Chart

Playoff Contender Needs (American League)

By Jason Martinez | July 14, 2016 at 11:41am CDT

Heading into the 2nd half of the season, 19 teams are within 5.5 games of a playoff spot while maintaining a .500 or better record. These are what we call the “playoff contenders” and, as of right now, they are potential “buyers” on the trade market in the coming weeks.

On the other end of the spectrum, those teams with sub-.500 records don’t appear to have what it takes to get back into contention. The Phillies and Rockies aren’t that far behind—they’re six and seven games behind the second Wild Card spot, respectively—and neither is a walk in the park on the schedule for opponents. But at six and eight games under .500, respectively, I’d be surprised if either front office isn’t ready to wheel and deal right now. If not already, these 11 teams will be in selling mode very soon.

Starting with the American League, let’s take a close look at each contending team’s biggest areas of need and some potential trade targets that could help down the stretch.

AL EAST

Baltimore Orioles
51-36, 1st Place, +2
STARTING PITCHING

The good news for the divison-leading Orioles is that they have the 6th best record in baseball despite having one of the worst starting rotations in baseball. The bad news is that, barring a trade or two, they still have to play 75 games with one of the worst rotations in baseball.

Sure, the O’s are very good at hitting home runs and closing out games. That formula could work in the post-season. But very bad starting pitching will eventually wear a team down, making it very difficult to finish strong and actually make it into the post-season.

Chris Tillman is having a nice season. Kevin Gausman has been very good at times, but doesn’t appear quite ready to be the frontline starter the O’s need to carry them into the playoffs. Yovani Gallardo has been a disappointment. Ubaldo Jimenez continues to be awful. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson have been serviceable, although both have an ERA over 5.00. Help isn’t on the way, either.

The O’s might not have the farm system to land a controllable top-of-the-rotation starter, but they have enough intriguing prospects—former 1st Round pick Hunter Harvey, Futures Game catcher Chance Sisco and 1st baseman Trey Mancini (.882 OPS between Triple-A and Double-A) all have value—to compete for the top rental available (Rich Hill) or a very good mid-rotation starter with control (Drew Pomeranz, Hector Santiago or Drew Smyly).

Orioles Depth Chart

Boston Red Sox
49-38, Wild Card (1st-T), +2
STARTING PITCHING

The Sox struck early to solidify their bullpen, acquiring Brad Ziegler last week with Craig Kimbrel expected to miss 3-6 weeks. The offense is already one of the best in baseball and, if they choose, could possibly get better with internal options like Andrew Benintendi and/or Yoan Moncada.

Like the Orioles, though, this is a team that’s lucky to be where they’re at considering the state of their starting rotation.

They’re nowhere near as shaky as the Orioles’ starting rotation—David Price has mostly been himself aside from a few bad outings, Rick Porcello has been solid and Steven Wright was a well-deserved All-Star selection—but this is a team that had journeyman Sean O’Sullivan penciled into the No. 4 spot in their rotation before he recently landed on the disabled list.

A handful of young pitchers could potentially step up and help out in the 2nd half—Eduardo Rodriguez will return from Triple-A to start on Friday—but this is a team in desperate need of some stability. With so much minor league talent, the Sox have the means to go after Hill and a controllable frontline starter like Chris Archer or Julio Teheran, although it would be tough to get the Rays or Braves to budge on either of their staff aces without the inclusion of Benintendi or Moncada.

Red Sox Depth Chart

Toronto Blue Jays
51-40, Wild Card (1st-T), +2
LATE-INNING RELIEF PITCHING or STARTING PITCHING

Even with Marcus Stroman having a disappointing season, the Jays clearly have the best starting rotation in the division. And if Stroman’s last two starts are any indication that he’s turning things around (14.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 12 K), the Jays have the potential to overtake the Orioles and run away with the division. The bullpen, however, might not have enough talent to help the cause.

While Jason Grilli has given the ’pen a big boost since his acquisition last month (2.63 ERA, 13.2 IP, 6 BB, 23 K, 4 holds, 1 save), they’ll need another reliable arm to help bridge the gap to closer Roberto Osuna. Drew Storen hasn’t done enough to regain a high-leverage role and Brett Cecil is also no longer a trustworthy option with the game on the line.

The answer could already be on the 25-man roster, but Aaron Sanchez is no longer a lock to move to the bullpen later in the season. Pitching well enough to be named to the All-Star team might have altered those plans. Manager John Gibbons said recently, however, that he still thinks Sanchez will shift to the bullpen at some point to limit his workload.

If the Jays do plan on moving Sanchez back to the bullpen—he posted a 2.39 ERA in 30 appearances last season while limiting opponents to a .178 batting average—they would likely pursue a trade for a starting pitcher. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote about the Trade Market for Starting Pitchers on Wednesday.

Blue Jays Depth Chart

New York Yankees
44-44, Wild Card (8th), -5.5
STARTING PITCHING and OUTFIELDER

As difficult as the Yankees are to beat if they can get to the 6th or 7th inning with a lead—see Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman—they’re probably not good enough to do it often enough to make the necessary leap of six teams in order to make the playoffs. In fact, they could join the list of “sellers” if they fall any further back in a week or two.

A lack of good starting pitching has been an issue. Masahiro Tanaka continues to shine despite pitching with a partially torn elbow ligament, but he’s not getting much help. CC Sabathia’s career resurgence has taken a turn for the worse. After lowering his ERA to 2.20 with a quality start on June 16th, the 35-year-old lefty has allowed at least five earned runs in four consecutive starts. Nate Eovaldi and Ivan Nova have ERAs over 5.00. So does Michael Pineda, although his strong peripherals (2.5 BB/9, 10.7 K/9) are encouraging.

If you’re looking at the offense to carry the team, that’s probably not going to happen either. Carlos Beltran, Didi Gregorius and Brian McCann have all been very good. Jacoby Ellsbury has been OK. Everyone else on the roster, aside from maybe backup catcher Austin Romine, has underperformed.

The best internal option who could’ve potentially brought some firepower to the offense was Triple-A outfielder Aaron Judge, who made my “Knocking Down The Door” list a few weeks back. The 24-year-old right fielder is expected to miss 3-4 weeks, however, after suffering a knee injury last week.

While you can’t rule out the Yankees from making a trade now as a last-ditch effort to stay in contention, it’s likely that they go with what they have and hope that someone like Luis Severino, who has pitched much better since a demotion to Triple-A in late May, could light a fire under the team and get them a few games closer to a playoff spot by late July. If that happens, they could look to add one of the several big-name outfielders that could be available (Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Reddick), as well as a lower-cost starting pitcher—Andrew Cashner and Jeremy Hellickson come to mind—to help take some pressure off of Tanaka and the bullpen.

Yankees Depth Chart

***Click below to read breakdowns of all the other AL contenders***

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland Indians
52-36, 1st Place, +6.5
CATCHER and SETUP MAN

If you think the Indians are good now, just wait until they get their best hitter back. Michael Brantley is currently on a rehab assignment and should be back very soon. He’d be joining a lineup that already includes five players with an OPS over .800.

Of the lineup regulars, only catcher Yan Gomes is having a bad season. Actually, it’s a lot worse than “bad.” He has a .516 OPS. Since he’s due close to $20 million from 2017-2019, the Indians might not want to go after Padres catcher Derek Norris, who would be under control through the 2018 season. But maybe they’d pay the price to add Jonathan Lucroy, who has a very cheap $5.25MM club option for 2017.

It would likely cost the Indians one of their top two hitting prospects, Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer, but the lineup could be equally as talented as the starting rotation with Lucroy and Brantley hitting in the middle of the order. That could be worth the risk.

Adding Lucroy would be a major splash, but the Indians would also be smart to shore up the back of their bullpen. Cody Allen has been very good and Bryan Shaw has been much better as of late after struggling earlier in the season. Adding another proven setup man to the mix, however, would make their path to the post-season much smoother. Hudson or Madson would be strong additions, although Jake McGee could be a better fit with only one lefty reliever (T.J. House) currently on the roster.

Indians Depth Chart

Detroit Tigers
46-43, Wild Card (4th), -4
STARTING PITCHING and SETUP MAN

With recent injuries to Jordan Zimmermann (strained neck) and Daniel Norris (strained oblique), the Tigers’ priority could shift from late-inning relief help to the starting rotation. In reality, they probably need both if they’re going to stick around in this playoff race.

The Tigers’ best pitcher has been Michael Fulmer, who has been dominant as a rookie. The 23-year-old might not be around for the stretch run, though, as young pitchers are typically shut down at some point late in the season. He’s thrown 92 innings so far in 2016 after throwing a total of 124.2 innings in the minors last season. Even with a healthy Zimmermann and Norris, the Tigers could use some help if they’re going to finish the season strong.

Francisco Rodriguez has done his job as the closer and Justin Wilson has also been very good in a setup role. If they’re to make it into the post-season, however, and not have their bullpen be the cause of their playoff struggles, they’ll need another reliable arm to pair with Rodriguez.

A weak farm system could make it difficult to make a significant upgrade, but there are plenty of rentals that should be affordable. Relievers Jim Johnson of the Braves and David Hernandez of the Phillies would be in that category, as would starting pitchers Jorge De La Rosa and Tim Lincecum.

Tigers Depth Chart

Chicago White Sox
45-43, Wild Card (5th-T)
OUTFIELDER or DESIGNATED HITTER

After back-to-back MVP-caliber seasons to start his MLB career, Jose Abreu’s production has fallen in 2016. He hasn’t been bad. He’s just not carrying a lineup that has probably needed to be carried. White Sox hitters have been, for the most part, underwhelming despite not having multiple players who are having poor seasons.

Replacing Avisail Garcia, who has a .633 OPS while playing on a regular basis as the designated hitter with a lefty slugger to hit between Abreu and Todd Frazier—Jay Bruce would fit well in front of his former Reds teammate—could be the move that jump starts this team.

Or if they don’t have the prospects to pull off a Bruce deal, they would be smart to add another top-of-the-order hitter like Coco Crisp or Jon Jay (if it appears that the latter could return from the disabled list in early August) so that current leadoff man Tim Anderson and his 1-to-37 walk-to-strikeout ratio could hit at the bottom of the order.

White Sox Depth Chart

Kansas City Royals
45-43, Wild Card (5th-T)
STARTING PITCHING

We know that these Royals hitters can turn it on in the post-season. We know that a Royals bullpen led by a healthy Wade Davis—he’s currently on the disabled list with a strained forearm—and Kelvin Herrera can make it very difficult for opposing hitters in a seven-game series. It’s becoming clear, though, that this Royals team probably doesn’t have enough starting pitching to make it to the playoffs.

Danny Duffy, who was supposed to be the left-handed complement to Davis and Herrera in the bullpen, has been their best starter and Ian Kennedy has been about what was expected. But Edinson Volquez has taken a few steps back. Yordano Ventura’s inconsistency remains an issue. Chris Young has been moved to the bullpen after pitching poorly. Kris Medlen is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury and was recently shut down with a new shoulder injury. Dillon Gee and Brian Flynn are not the answers and there is no help on the way. It’s trade market or bust for the World Champs.

Royals Depth Chart

AL WEST

Texas Rangers
54-36, 1st Place, +5.5
STARTING PITCHING and CATCHER

Injuries to Yu Darvish, Derek Holland and Colby Lewis have forced the Rangers to give 12 of their 90 starts to Cesar Ramos, Nick Martinez, Chi Chi Gonzalez and Kyle Lohse. The results are even worse than you can probably imagine.

The Rangers are set at the top of their rotation with Cole Hamels and Darvish, who is expected to come off of the disabled list on Saturday. It’s Lewis’ steady production from the middle of the rotation that they’re missing, though. Ervin Santana could be a capable replacement, although the Rangers could opt for a low-cost rental like Andrew Cashner. The 29-year-old is injury-prone and inconsistent, but he can be very good at times. Maybe a return to his hometown state in the middle of a pennant race would bring out the best in him.

While they’re at it, they might as well make it a package deal and bring Cashner’s battery-mate Norris along for the ride. The 27-year-old catcher, who has an .821 OPS with 11 homers since May 5th, would be an upgrade over the current duo of Robinson Chirinos and Bobby Wilson. Of course, that Lucroy guy is also available and the Rangers certainly have the talent in their farm system to make it happen. Stephen Vogt could also make sense if they could pry him away from the division rival A’s.

Rangers Depth Chart

Houston Astros
48-41, Wild Card (3rd), -2
LEFTY RELIEF SPECIALIST

Does a team that has won 31 of 44 games have needs? Maybe not major needs, but the surging Astros can certainly get better.

The expectation is that they will upgrade their lineup in the near future by promoting Alex Bregman, who has proven in a very short period of time that he is way too good for the Minor Leagues.

The starting rotation hasn’t been as good as expected, mostly due to Dallas Keuchel having an ERA near 5.00, but they’ve been able to stay relatively healthy while No. 6 and No. 7 starters Scott Feldman and Chris Devenski have been solid when called upon. Triple-A starters Joe Musgrove and Brady Rodgers have also been very good and appear ready to contribute. That’s a pretty good recipe for success over a 162-game regular season.

As long as Keuchel continues to pitch well—he has five consecutive quality starts—the Astros are one of the few teams that does not need a starting rotation upgrade.

The bullpen, despite some ups and downs, isn’t a weak link by any means. They might not have had everyone clicking at once, but that should be a scary thought for opponents. What if Will Harris, Luke Gregerson, Ken Giles, Tony Sipp, Pat Neshek and Michael Feliz are all pitching well at the same time in August, September and into the post-season?

The inconsistency of this group, however, even by relief pitcher standards, is a bit concerning. The lone lefty Sipp’s inability to get lefty hitters out (.935 OPS) is a huge concern. I wouldn’t expect Jeff Luhnow to give up very much to acquire another relief pitcher—see Giles-for-Vincent Velasquez—but it wouldn’t cost a lot to add Twins lefty and former Astros reliever Fernando Abad, who has held lefty batters to a .163 batting average.

Astros Depth Chart

Seattle Mariners
45-44, Wild Card (7th), -5
SHORTSTOP and CLOSER

Headed in the opposite direction of the Astros with 22 losses in their last 36 games, the Mariners need to do something. All of a sudden, a roster that looked strong in all areas has several holes.

Felix Hernandez is expected back from the disabled list next week. That will help. But not enough.

Taijuan Walker, who has appeared on the verge of a breakout season at times, is now on the disabled list with foot tendinitis. Offseason acquisitions Wade Miley (5.44 ERA) and Nathan Karns (moved to bullpen) have struggled. Ditto for veteran relievers Joaquin Benoit (4.57 ERA) and Joel Peralta (5.40 ERA; released). Closer Steve Cishek has five blown saves. It doesn’t stop with the pitchers. Adam Lind (.699 OPS) and Norichika Aoki (optioned to minors) haven’t impressed. Leonys Martin hasn’t hit since coming off the disabled list last month.

Jerry Dipoto’s first offseason as the Mariners’ general manager has been a disappointment—Dae-Ho Lee has been the lone bright spot—but it’s not too late for him to make up for it. His team is over .500 and still has plenty of talent, even though the players he acquired to surround King Felix, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager haven’t done the job.

While rookie Edwin Diaz is quickly making a case to be the closer, there are a lot of veteran options available on the trade market. While general manager of the Angels, Dipoto acquired Huston Street two seasons ago. He could look to do the same this July, which would enable the Mariners to move Cishek into a role where he can pitch almost exclusively to right-handed hitters (.152 batting average).

Ketel Marte’s rough sophomore season could also have DiPoto shopping for shortstop help with Eduardo Nuñez and Eduardo Escobar of the Twins and Zack Cozart of the Reds potential targets.

Mariners Depth Chart

Trade Market For Starting Pitchers

By Jeff Todd | July 13, 2016 at 11:23pm CDT

Over the coming days, we’re going to be running down the potential summer trade candidates at each position. First up: starting pitching, where it’s a true seller’s market.

The old adage that you can never have enough pitching remains as true today as ever. Just ask the Mets, who entered the year with a borderline-unfair collection of rotation talent but now appear to be in need of a fill-in piece. And New York is far from the neediest buyer. I’d list ’em all, but it’s easier just to note that only a few viable contenders — the Indians and Nationals being the obvious examples — have no real cause to look at starters.

That’s not to say that the entire remaining slate of postseason hopefuls will be chasing arms as a top priority, but there’s loads of demand. Some organizations are likely to be looking more at sturdy veterans to shore up the staff, with the Royals, Orioles, and Blue Jays among the teams that could fit that profile. Others — the Marlins, Rangers, and Red Sox come to mind — could be willing to give up a bigger return to add a quality, controllable pitcher.

Here are the trade candidates that teams like those could consider pursuing:

Top Rentals

Rich Hill (Athletics), Jeremy Hellickson (Phillies), Andrew Cashner (Padres), Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies), Jhoulys Chacin & Tim Lincecum (Angels), Jered Weaver (Angels)

In a very thin rental class, Hill clearly stands out as the highest-performing arm. It still feels funny to be talking about him this way, given that he’s 36 and lacks a real track record, but Hill has now compiled a 2.06 ERA over his last 105 innings with 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. Teams will likely value Hill as a frontline starter, at least as a three-month asset.
That assessment is informed by the fact that the rest of the market is so barren. Hellickson is surely next in line, and he looks to be a useful arm. But most contenders would be adding him as a solid piece to help win some games down the stretch, not because he’d upgrade their post-season rotation. Still, he’s a useful pitcher and carries a sub-4.00 ERA into the All-Star break.
Cashner has the pedigree and the stuff to rate as a top target, but he’s still producing middling results — a 4.60 ERA and 7.6 K/9 vs. 3.4 BB/9 since the start of 2015. The right club might still bite at a chance to try harnessing his talent.
The rest of the bunch would have been much more interesting three or four years ago. As things stand, the best that can be said is that they’re all still pitching in major league rotations. It’s hard to consider any more than gap-fillers, though De La Rosa has shown signs of late of returning to his typical form.

Controllable Arms

Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly & Chris Archer (Rays), Drew Pomeranz (Padres), Julio Teheran (Braves), Sonny Gray (Athletics), Anthony DeSclafani (Reds), Matt Shoemaker, Hector Santiago & Nick Tropeano (Angels), Patrick Corbin & Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks), Jimmy Nelson (Brewers), Tyler Chatwood (Rockies), Nathan Eovaldi & Michael Pineda (Yankees)

As moribund as the rental market is, that only increases the intrigue surrounding the many controllable pitchers who play for non-contending clubs. Valuing these arms, and guessing which are likeliest to be dealt, is awfully complicated. We’ll largely just have to wait and see which sellers are most motivated and which pitchers are most valued by the market.
Tampa Bay still appears in the most obvious position to deal a controllable starter. The Rays would be selling low on Moore, Smyly, and Archer, but perhaps another organization will look past their struggles in the results department and make a fair offer. Odorizzi, though, might be the likeliest to be shipped out; he owns a 3.91 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over his four years with the Rays, and is set to enter arbitration next year.
If you’re looking for a single arm on this list that’s most likely to change hands, it may be Pomeranz. There’s an argument to be made that San Diego ought to keep the breakout southpaw for itself, but if another organization is willing to treat him like the 2.47 ERA pitcher he’s been over 102 innings thus far, the time may be right to strike a deal.
Teheran and Gray have long been discussed as possible trade pieces, with their affordable and lengthy contract situations serving to burnish their trade value. The former has been excellent, while the latter has had a rough go thus far. Regardless, we’re not seeing clear signals that either is truly available, and it’d take a truly significant offer to produce any movement.
Similar things could be said about the remaining pitchers from this group. To take a few examples, teams will need to bring big offers to motivate the Brewers to deal away their ample control over Nelson, convince the Reds to part with DeSclafani, or get the pitching-needy Halos to cash in Shoemaker in the midst of an interesting season. All of the players listed are plausible trade pieces in the right scenario; while none seem particularly likely to move on their own, it seems fair to expect one or two of the group to end up in a swap.

Big Contracts

Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Ervin Santana & Ricky Nolasco (Twins), Jon Niese (Pirates), Matt Garza (Brewers), CC Sabathia (Yankees)

There have been whispers about the idea of a contender chasing Greinke, who is pitching as well as should have been expected — which is to say, not well enough to continue last year’s ridiculous pace and probably not quite to the value of his monster contract. But we’ve yet to hear any strong connection of his name to the real-world market.
That’s not the case with regard to Santana, who has reportedly been scouted quite closely. Teams looking for a durable, back-of-the-rotation type of arm will strongly consider him, assuming the cash can be sorted out.
Nolasco, Niese, and Garza have all coughed up over five earned per nine on the year, but each has some potential appeal. The younger Niese could be the most desirable of this bunch, as he is controllable by a club option, though Nolasco is carrying an appealing K/BB ratio.
A resurgent Sabathia would be a pretty interesting guy to watch were it not for the fact that he’s headed toward the vesting of a whopping $25MM option for 2017.

Back-of-the-Rotation/Swingmen/Minor-League Depth

Ivan Nova (Yankees), Dan Straily (Reds), Tommy Milone (Twins), Jesse Hahn & Nick Tepesch (Athletics), Lucas Harrell (Braves), Wily Peralta (Brewers), Jordan Lyles (Rockies), Brad Hand (Padres)

There are a variety of possibilities here, ranging from fifth starter candidates (Nova, Straily, Milone) to bounceback types (Hahn, Peralta, Lyles) who are not currently working in a big league rotation. Harrell has had two nice starts for Atlanta, though he’s go a way to go to proving he’s worth surrendering real value. Hand has been a new man since moving to a full-time relief role this year.

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