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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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After a 68-94 season, new Brewers GM David Stearns and newly minted assistant GM Matt Arnold (formerly of the Rays) will be tasked with continuing the team’s rebuild.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Stearns, who the Brewers hired last month, is 30, has an Ivy League background and was previously an assistant GM with the analytically-savvy Astros, so it certainly seems like he’ll be a new-school GM. And if he were to trade most of the rest of his veterans and go with a young, inexpensive roster, just as Jeff Luhnow did in Houston, that wouldn’t be surprising.

In fact, if he did, he would only be continuing what the Brewers have already started. Many of their key in-season moves in 2015 (in which they dealt free-agents-to-be Gerardo Parra, Aramis Ramirez and Jonathan Broxton to new teams) merely acknowledged that they weren’t contenders that year, but the trade of Carlos Gomez (who was signed through 2016) and Mike Fiers (controllable through 2019) to the Astros before Stearns’ hire strongly suggested they were already rebuilding. Which, of course, made sense. The Brewers’ season had gone horribly to that point, their competition in the NL Central was fierce, and there wasn’t reason to think things would get much better in the short term.

If Stearns were to pursue a full-scale rebuild, then, it would simply continue a process that began last summer, as he suggested last week. “The Brewers’ organization really began that transitional period in the middle of this year,” said Stearns. “When [owner] Jim Crane bought the Astros and Jeff Luhnow took over … [t]hey were starting from scratch. I don’t see us as starting from scratch.”

USATSI_8606052_154513410_lowresStearns’ biggest deals to continue to rebuild the team don’t need to happen this offseason, but if they do, his top trade chip will be catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The 29-year-old is coming off a down season marked by a broken toe and concussion issues, but he was a viable MVP candidate in 2014 thanks to not only his offense but his work with the Brewers’ pitchers. Additionally, he’s signed to a very team-friendly contract that will pay him just $9.25MM in the next two seasons combined. Last year, Lucroy wanted to discuss another extension with the Brewers, but the team said no, presumably wanting to take advantage of his very favorable existing contract and avoid signing him further into his thirties.

While the Brewers have also previously sounded reluctant to deal Lucroy, and Stearns himself recently described Lucroy as a reason to expect the Brewers to improve in 2016, Stearns seems likely to try to get something for his asset at some point. The question is whether Stearns wants to gamble on Lucroy restoring his trade value by staying healthy for the first few months of the season. Keeping Lucroy around for a few months would also allow the Brewers to play much of the 2016 season with one of their most marketable players still in tow. If they do elect to deal him this winter, though, the Nationals, Angels, Twins and perhaps Braves (who reportedly would have interest in Lucroy if he were available) could be potential trade partners.

There are a few additional veterans the Brewers could deal. First baseman Adam Lind, whose $8MM option the Brewers will likely exercise, remains a plus hitter signed to a reasonable contract; he should be able to bring back a decent prospect or two. The Pirates would be a good fit if the two teams can agree to a trade within the NL Central, and the Mariners might also be a possibility. The Brewers could also get good value for relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Will Smith. K-Rod is still just 33 and was quietly terrific last season, and Smith was one of baseball’s best lefty relievers, dominating batters on both sides of the plate and posting a ridiculous 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. If the Brewers don’t get offers they like, they could also wait and trade either pitcher in July.

The only two other Brewers signed to significant contracts are Ryan Braun and Matt Garza. Braun did hit .285/.356/.498 in a resurgent 2015 season, but his contract (which was signed all the way back in 2011 but hasn’t even technically kicked in yet) is arguably already a problem due to the length of the commitment, his age (32 in November) and lack of defensive value. Since he’s still productive, the Brewers could conceivably trade him, but they might have to pay a significant portion of his contract or take on another big contract to do so. That’s probably an option worth pursuing, given the possibility that Braun could decline in the next couple years and become even trickier to trade.

Garza, meanwhile, is coming off a miserable 5.63 ERA season in which he left the team early after being removed from the rotation, and his peripheral numbers suggest only a modest rebound is in store. As MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy pointed out in a recent edition of the MLBTR Podcast, the Brewers still owe Garza $25MM, which means he’ll likely be back with the team in 2016. And besides Smith, the Brewers don’t have any arbitration-eligible players with much value, either — Wily Peralta and Jean Segura are both coming off mediocre seasons.

Many key players from the Brewers’ last winning team — Gomez, Fiers, Ramirez, Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Zach Duke — are now gone, and others have torpedoed their trade value with disappointing performances. For Stearns, the Brewers’ relative lack of trade assets might actually be a blessing, at least in some respects. Perhaps the most important thing a GM can do in his first few months on the job is evaluate the organization he’s inherited, and right now, Stearns needs make sure he has the right coaches, scouts and front office personnel, and that he’s deploying them effectively. That process has already begun; the Brewers announced last week that they’re only keeping manager Craig Counsell, hitting coach Darnell Coles and third base coach Ed Sedar from their 2015 coaching staff, and earlier today the hiring of Arnold as AGM was announced.

With that in mind, then, Stearns’ offseason might not be that tumultuous, at least not from a player-acquisition standpoint. The Brewers already have young, or at least controllable, players at many positions, and they can use 2016 to find out which are likely to be helpful in the long term. A few, like left fielder Khris Davis and starting pitchers Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Jungmann, have already proven their value to the club. Davis quietly hit 27 homers in 440 plate appearances last year, and Nelson and Jungmann were among the Brewers’ best starting pitchers. Jungmann’s emergence was a pleasant surprise, given his sometimes underwhelming performances in the minors.

Elsewhere, Domingo Santana, one of the key acquisitions in the Gomez trade, will receive chances in the outfield, alongside Davis. Braun will occupy the other spot if the Brewers aren’t able to trade him. Eating some of his contract, dealing him in a Matt Kemp-style trade, and acquiring someone like Austin Jackson or Rajai Davis to play center field on a short-term basis might be a neat trick, though. Santana isn’t really a center fielder, so clearing space for him in a corner and getting a better defender to play in center would help the Brewers’ pitching staff. Dealing Braun would be franchise-changing from a branding perspective, of course, but it seems likely to happen at some point.

If the Brewers do deal Lind, their infield could feature some combination of Jason Rogers, Scooter Gennett, Segura, Luis Sardinas and Elian Herrera. The 27-year-old Rogers performed well as a rookie in 2015, while Gennett, Segura and Sardinas all struggled to varying degrees. Top prospect Orlando Arcia could make an impact at some point in 2016, however, potentially solidifying the shortstop position. In the meantime, the addition of a veteran could help stabilize the Brewers’ infield — Kelly Johnson, who bats left-handed and can play first, second and third, might be a good fit at a reasonable price. Assuming Lind is dealt, the Brewers could also acquire someone like Justin Morneau to platoon with Rogers.

Nelson, Jungmann and Garza will likely be back in the rotation, along with some combination of Ariel Pena, recent trade acquisition Zach Davies and Peralta. Several other young pitchers, including Jorge Lopez, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser, could also find playing time. That might be enough arms to get Milwaukee through the season, but but perhaps it wouldn’t hurt to acquire an innings eater to fill out the rotation anyway. Perhaps they could also sign a pitcher with the aim of trading him for extra talent at the deadline and replacing him with Lopez, Hader or Houser.

In the bullpen, even if the Brewers do trade Rodriguez and/or Smith, there will still be a fair number of interesting arms in Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Michael Blazek, Tyler Thornburg and Yhonathan Barrios. It’s possible that the Brewers could add to that group, particularly if Smith is traded. Smith’s departure would leave the Brewers bullpen very heavily right-handed, and the team could look to the outside for lefty relief help or consider retaining the left-handed Cesar Jimenez.

The keys with any of these additions ought to be to supplement existing talent rather than blocking it. Players like Davis and Johnson would help the Brewers keep costs down, but they would also be helpful because of their versatility. Davis, for example, could easily move into a fourth-outfielder role if, say, top prospect Brett Phillips were to get off to a hot start at Triple-A and earn big-league playing time. (Davis or Jackson might also have trade value in July if that scenario were to unfold.) And Johnson could move to one of any number of positions, switching positions if one of the Brewers’ younger infielders proved he deserved regular playing time.

Of course, we’ve assumed here that it’s obvious what course Stearns will follow. Maybe it isn’t. Padres GM A.J. Preller, for example, had a scouting and player-development background and inherited an organization that, like the Brewers today, was a losing team with an improving farm system. Rather than building around that farm system, he dealt many of his top prospects in a surprising (and ultimately ill-advised) attempt to contend. Perhaps, then, Stearns has something unexpected up his sleeve, despite the Brewers’ situation and his own background in Houston. That would be a shock, however — it makes little sense to stop trading now that the Gomez/Fiers deal is done, and the Brewers finished a full 29 games behind the third-place finisher in the NL Central last year. The Padres’ attempt at contention sort of made sense in the right light, but for the Brewers, a radical deviation from their presumed plans would just seem crazy. There’s little left for Stearns to do, then, but to continue what the team started before he arrived.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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Few pundits pegged the Twins as postseason contenders in 2015, but the emergence of some young talent led to the club’s first winning season since 2010 and a legitimate run at an American League Wild Card spot. Veteran GM Terry Ryan and his staff will attempt to push this team to the next level and give Twins fans their second postseason since the opening of Target Field.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Free Agents

Contract Options

  • None

As it stands right now, the Twins project to have about a $103MM payroll on Opening Day next year simply by tendering each of their arbitration eligible players and rounding out the roster with league-minimum talent. That’s about $10MM shy of the club’s franchise record, so there may be limited financial room, though perhaps the club’s winning record will create a willingness among ownership to surpass the previous high-water mark. Trades could also create some extra payroll space, though I’ll get into that later.

Pitching has been a primary need for the Twins for quite some time, and Ryan has said they’ll look for rotation help and bullpen help once again this winter. The question, then, becomes where exactly the Twins will fit all of these arms onto the roster. That’s not to say the Twins necessarily have a surplus of quality starting pitching, but they probably have enough arms to get through the season. (The quality of said season would simply be questionable.) In Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, the Twins have seven rotation options. That doesn’t include Jose Berrios, who ranks among the game’s Top 25 prospects or so and is more or less big league ready.

Nolasco has performed dreadfully and spent roughly a year’s worth of time on the DL since signing a four-year deal. The Twins, undoubtedly, would have interest in moving the remainder of that contract this winter, though they’d probably have to take on a similarly unappealing contract. Hughes missed a month late in the year due to back issues but may have been injured longer than that (my own speculation), as few pitchers see their fastball mysteriously lose two miles per hour at the age of 28. Santana’s PED suspension hurt the Twins’ 2015 hopes, but he debuted and finished with a flourish, though there was a ghastly stretch sandwiched between his most impressive work.

The Twins’ five best options for the rotation are probably Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May and Duffey, with Berrios waiting in the wings. However, May had success in his move to the bullpen, and it’s possible that the Twins, who desperately need relief aid, could leave the hard-throwing 26-year-old there. From my vantage point, May at least merits another audition in the rotation, as he showed a nice mix of missing bats and limiting free passes while working as a starter through July.

A run at David Price or Zack Greinke would be uncharacteristic, and one has to wonder how many mid-rotation arms the team can target; a pursuit of Midwest native Jordan Zimmermann would be one thing, but going after Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, Wei-Yin Chen, etc. would feel like more of the same — spending heavily on a veteran, mid-rotation commodity despite the presence of comparable arms on the current roster.

Rather, a greater focus perhaps should be placed on repairing what was a dismal bullpen in 2015. Minnesota relievers combined for a 3.95 ERA that ranked 21st in baseball and averaged a league-worst 6.9 K/9. In terms of FIP, xFIP and SIERA, the Twins’ bullpen ranked 24th, 28th and 27th, respectively. Glen Perkins dealt with back injuries that plagued his second half, so the Twins will hope he’s in better health to pair with deadline acquisition Kevin Jepsen in the late innings next year. A return to health for Ryan Pressly would be a boost, and May or one of the other rotation candidates could be a bullpen option, too.

The Twins, though, will need to add at least one arm, if not two or three. In particular, there’s a lack of quality left-handed options behind Perkins, who typically works the ninth inning, taking him out of the equation for earlier high-leverage spots. (That deficiency makes the decision to leave Sean Gilmartin unprotected in last year’s Rule 5 Draft look particularly questionable.) Tony Sipp and Antonio Bastardo have had success against both lefties and righties, making them reasonable targets. A return for Neal Cotts, another trade acquisition, could be in order. Additionally, they’ll hope to eventually see some of the power college arms they’ve placed a recent emphasis on drafting — Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Zach Jones — surface in the bigs. The bullpen is probably the most likely destination for former top prospect Alex Meyer, whose stock plummeted with a poor 2015.

One factor that will help both the rotation and the bullpen will be the team’s wildly improved outfield defense. After rating as the worst defensive outfield in baseball in 2014, the Twins showed a glimpse of a potentially rangy, dynamic future outfield consisting of Eddie Rosario in left, Byron Buxton in center and Aaron Hicks in right field. Even with Torii Hunter posting a Defensive Runs Saved mark of -8 in right field, the Twins still made an unfathomable improvement of 58 runs (-50 in 2014, +8 in 2015) in that regard. And, on the periphery of the outfield mix is German prospect Max Kepler, who forced his way into Top 100 consideration with a monster year at Class A Advanced and Double-A. Kepler hit .322/.416/.531 and took home MVP honors in the Double-A Southern League. While he’s probably Triple-A bound to begin the season, it’s easy to imagine him quickly earning a promotion.

The presence of that young and athletic outfield mix raises one of the key questions for the Twins this winter, which is whether or not Hunter will retire. Hunter has said in the past that it’s the Twins or retirement, but he’s also disinterested in a part-time role. The Twins value Hunter’s clubhouse presence and the impact he has on the work ethic and day-to-day approach of young players, but from a production standpoint, the team would be better not giving him regular at-bats. His 2015 play suggests that he’d benefit from more rest, as well; Hunter hit .257/.312/.444 in the first half but slumped to .217/.265/.359 with a five percent strikeout increase after the All-Star break. If he’s back, it should be as a fourth outfielder/part-time DH on an incentive-laden, one-year deal with a lower base salary than this year’s $10.5MM. One plan of attack could be to start the year with Hicks in center and Hunter in right, then move Hunter to a part-time role once Buxton gets more Triple-A experience. He has, after all, hit just .209/.250/.326 in the Majors.

Hunter isn’t the only former Twins first-rounder with an uncertain future. Trevor Plouffe has emerged as a solid everyday third baseman over the past few seasons, but the arrival of Miguel Sano gives the team a younger, cheaper and offensively superior option. With Joe Mauer entrenched at first base despite declining production, the option of shifting Plouffe or Sano to the opposite corner does not exist. (The “move Mauer back to catcher” crowd makes a bizarre and dangerous argument, as Mauer’s history of concussions inherently makes that notion a risk to his health long after his career is over.)

Plouffe will, presumably, draw trade interest from teams needing help at the hot corner, especially since his arbitration price isn’t exorbitant. The Twins could continue to use Sano, Mauer and Plouffe in a first base/third base/DH rotation, but they’ve said they don’t want to make Sano a pure DH at the age of 22.

Elsewhere in the infield, Minnesota has a need at shortstop. Danny Santana predictably regressed after a lofty strikeout rate and .405 BABIP in his rookie season, though few would’ve expected such a precipitous fall. The organization may still have hope, but it was Eduardo Escobar playing regularly late in the year. The 26-year-old Escobar had a nice second half that left him with a quality overall batting line (especially relative to his shortstop peers), but he’s not a great defender and hasn’t consistently shown the ability to produce offensively at the Major League level. He had a stretch similar to his 2015 second half back in 2014 but could neither maintain it then nor replicate in this year’s first half. Then again, free agency offers little certainty, with Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera bringing differing levels of inconsistency to the top of that market. One speculative bad contract swap floated by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes was to send Nolasco and a pitching prospect to the Rockies in exchange for Jose Reyes, as the difference in salaries would essentially mean the Twins were getting Reyes for two years and $23MM.

The greatest need for the Twins is behind the plate. Though Kurt Suzuki is well liked and popular with his teammates, his .240/.296/.314 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 66 (i.e. his park-adjusted production was 34 percent worse than a league-average hitter), which ranked sixth-worst in the game among players with 450 plate appearances. He also caught just 12 percent of attempted base stealers and rated as a below-average pitch framer.

Minnesota reportedly tried to acquire A.J. Pierzynski in July and offered him a two-year deal prior to signing Suzuki in the 2013-14 offseason, so I’d imagine they’ll again have interest in a reunion with the veteran, who had a nice age-38 season in Atlanta. The Twins may be somewhat of a dark horse for Matt Wieters, but it’s also possible they’re wary of adding the 6’5″, 230-pound Wieters after watching the 6’5″, 225-pound Mauer’s body break down behind the plate. (Mauer, in addition to his concussion troubles, has had significant back and leg issues that most likely stemmed from his size and catching workload.) Potential trade candidates could include Jonathan Lucroy, Christian Bethancourt, Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino, though the latter three have yet to prove their offensive value in the bigs, and Lucroy had his own concussion issues late in 2015. Nonetheless, Lucroy would represent a two-year upgrade, whereas the other three are long-term options with plus defensive tools — an asset the Twins organization otherwise lacks.

The Twins have their own stock of young players with big league experience that have yet to prove their offensive consistency. Most notable is Oswaldo Arcia — a former Top 50 prospect (per Baseball America) that belted 20 homers in just 410 Major League plate appearances in 2014. Arcia has batted a respectable .243/.305/.437 with 36 homers in 213 big league games, but he’s a poor defender in the outfield corners and struggles against lefties. He also batted a curiously low .199/.257/.372 in Triple-A this season. Arcia will open next season at 24 and has plenty of power but will be out of minor league options. His 2015 struggles notwithstanding, Arcia is a natural target for teams seeking a left-handed corner bat with some pop.

First baseman/DH Kennys Vargas also struggled in the Majors in 2015, though like Danny Santana, he excelled upon a minor league demotion. Both have options remaining and could remain a part of the team’s future.

The Twins have a fascinating offseason on the horizon, as their highly touted farm system has begun to bear fruit at the Major League level, bringing into question the futures of some veteran contributors. Despite several graduations to the Majors, the Twins boast seven prospects in MLB.com’s Top 100, giving them a still-deep reserve of minor league talent that could be used to upgrade deficiencies at shortstop and catcher. In addition to the candidates listed above, a player such as the MLB-ready Jorge Polanco (a shortstop who most believe will need to move to second base) could be a valuable trade chip. Lower-level names such as recent Top 5 picks Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon are well regarded but won’t factor into the Major League picture until at least 2017, if not 2018-19. With an accelerated timetable for contention, there’s an argument to be made that the Twins should shift from collecting minor league talent to parting with potentially blocked or far-off prospects in order to make a more serious run in 2016.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Another active offseason is in store for the White Sox, who find themselves with needs all over the diamond.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

I have difficulty criticizing Rick Hahn’s active 2014-15 offseason, as I was a fan of his moves and thought the White Sox would contend this year.  However, major acquisitions Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Samardzija bombed.  To compound matters, position players Avisail Garcia, Conor Gillaspie, and Alexei Ramirez were brutal as well.  It’s almost freakish that so many players performed below expectations in the same year, and the result was an 86-loss season.  That came on the heels of 89 losses in 2014 and 99 losses in 2013.

This team seems in too deep to blow it all up, plus they’ve still got a strong, affordable core.  Abreu, Sale, Quintana, and Eaton generated about 18 wins above replacement in 2015, and will cost less than $30MM in 2016.  That remains a fantastic bargain, so GM Rick Hahn needs to take another shot at complementing his core with the right veterans.

So, what can be done about baseball’s worst collection of position players, by measure of wins above replacement?  Starting behind the dish, WAR doesn’t do Tyler Flowers justice, as he’s worked himself into one of the game’s best pitch framers.  With so much work to do elsewhere on the diamond, retaining Flowers is a reasonable starting point.  Geovany Soto, a minor league signing who worked out well, could be re-signed early in the offseason.

I don’t see much point in trying to sell low on Cabrera.  This might be grasping at straws, but he at least showed signs of life in July, and the best bet for 2016 is to hope he can bounce back and supply a two-win season at age 31.  Given Cabrera’s consistently poor defense, the team would be improved by having him spend the majority of his time at designated hitter.  Abreu’s defense at first base is no longer a liability, and the team could reduce his DH games to 25 or so.

This alignment leaves LaRoche without a starting spot on the 2016 club.  Hahn can spend the next few months searching for an interesting bad contract swap or a salary dump partner, and then release him if those efforts come up empty.

Though Avisail Garcia is only 24, it’s time to try someone else in right field.  Hahn says he’s still confident in Garcia, but the team can’t afford another replacement level season as they hope for him to develop.  Garcia should be shopped to rebuilding clubs for something useful this winter, and sent to Triple-A if no good offers come in.  2015 rookie Trayce Thompson is actually three months older than Garcia, but could land a starting outfield spot on the strength of a strong 135-plate appearance debut.  It’s a red flag, however, that Thompson hit .260/.304/.441 at Triple-A.  In a perfect world, he’d be penciled in for a fourth outfielder role next year.

The White Sox should be in the market for at least one regular corner outfielder, as well as another player who can help out.  The free agent market features four excellent options in Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon.  All of them are projected to earn $100MM+ and more than $20MM per season.  There are ways to fit such a signing into the team’s payroll, though it would require most of their available resources.  There is a tier of outfielders below this group in the $8-15MM salary range, such as Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Steve Pearce, and Colby Rasmus.  The trade market could include Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig.  Ozuna would be particularly interesting for Chicago, as he’s yet to reach arbitration and will be earning less than $600K.  He’ll be appealing to many teams, however.

So outfield is wide open and in need of multiple acquisitions.  The infield picture isn’t much better for the White Sox.  The big question is whether to choose a $10MM club option or a $1MM buyout for longtime shortstop Alexei Ramirez.  Ramirez’s improved second half suggests he might have another two-win season left in him, but at age 34 picking up his option would definitely be a gamble.  I think the $9MM net price is only slightly above Ramirez’s market value, but the White Sox might not want to tie up that much payroll space in him.

There’s the idea of using 2015 rookie Tyler Saladino as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, though that’s a poor win-now plan.  The free agent market offers Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jimmy Rollins.  Though Desmond himself had an off-year, I still see him pushing for a four or five-year contract, so I don’t see him as a fit for the Sox.  A crosstown swap for Starlin Castro makes some sense.  Castro, 26 in March, is signed through 2019 but could spend a few months at shortstop until Anderson is ready and then settle in as an above average second baseman.  However, the Cubs may still like him for that role.  In that case, Javier Baez could be a target.

Third base is another question mark for the White Sox.  Saladino, Mike Olt, and Matt Davidson are in-house options.  Juan Uribe could be a fun pickup on the free agent market, and David Freese will be out there as well.  Trade options include Todd Frazier, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Plouffe, and Luis Valbuena.  One sleeper could be Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, who might be posted by the Lotte Giants.

This year, second base was handled mainly by Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson.  It’s yet another potential area of upgrade, with Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick profiling as the top free agents and Brandon Phillips and Neil Walker looking like trade candidates.  One free agent we haven’t mentioned yet is Ben Zobrist, who MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pegged as a potential White Sox target given their multitude of needs and the veteran’s versatility.  However, the 34-year-old Zobrist could seek the Victor Martinez contract (four years, $68MM), which the White Sox were wise to avoid last winter.  Murphy is a younger player who should cost less than Zobrist and can at least handle both second and third base, though he’d likely cost the White Sox their second round draft pick.

Once again, Sale and Quintana are locked in atop Chicago’s rotation, a duo that provided 415 strong innings this year.  Danks’ contract makes him likely to hang around as the fifth starter.  Rodon, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2014, joined the big league rotation on May 9th and recorded a 3.79 ERA in 23 starts.  His control needs improvement, but it was a solid rookie effort.  Samardzija isn’t likely to return, but making a qualifying offer is an easy decision.  The Sox could replace Samardzija in-house with some combination of Erik Johnson, Frankie Montas, Tyler Danish, and Chris Beck.

Hahn probably won’t address all of his team’s needs through free agency, and it’s possible he’ll deal from the team’s pitching depth to acquire a position player.  Assuming Sale remains off-limits, Quintana will be a popular target for other teams.  Only a handful of position players would justify surrendering five affordable years of control of Quintana, Puig among them.  I think Hahn is more likely to deal from his stash of unproven but mostly MLB-ready arms.  It’s possible the team could add a low-level veteran starting pitcher in free agency if they compromise their rotation depth.

Hahn’s retooled bullpen was above average in 2015.  There’s reason for further optimism in 2016.  Robertson is better than his 3.41 ERA, and the Sox will enjoy a full season from Nate Jones.  I imagine they’ll try to re-sign Albers, who came on a minor league deal and had a quality season despite missing three months in the middle with a broken finger.

Earlier this month, Hahn told reporters the team will be retaining Robin Ventura as manager for 2016.  Given the way Ventura’s last three seasons have gone, however, he will likely be on a short leash entering the new season.  Before then, expect plenty of offseason action for the White Sox, who have a laundry list of needs to address if they are to return to contention in 2016.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds might not have been certain they’d contend in 2015, but they probably didn’t expect their season to go quite as badly as it did. While the Reds’ struggles this year (and particularly down the stretch) were hard to watch, there’s a kind of freedom in knowing for sure that you’re bad. This offseason, we’ll see what the Reds do with that freedom.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $199MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Homer Bailey, SP: $86MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 mutual option)
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B: $27MM through 2017
  • Devin Mesoraco, C: $25.1MM through 2018
  • Raisel Iglesias, SP: $22MM through 2020 (includes $1.5MM of signing bonus to be paid in November 2016)
  • Jay Bruce, OF: $13.5MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 club option)
  • Todd Frazier, 3B: $7.5MM through 2016 (eligible for arbitration for 2017 season)

Arbitration Eligible Players (Service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Reds’ 98-loss 2015 season didn’t come completely out of nowhere. In 2014, the Reds finished with just a 76-86 record. They had a well-compensated core, and most of their rotation was set for free agency following the 2015 season. In response, they made some moves to reduce payroll and look ahead, dealing Mat Latos to the Marlins and Alfredo Simon to the Tigers. But those moves were relatively small and tentative, and the Reds waited to make some bigger moves this summer with their trades of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. Now, with a sketchy big-league roster, little short-term payroll space, and incredibly tough divisional competition, there’s no obvious way for the Reds to contend next year, and little to do but to keep rebuilding.

But the best reason for the Reds to continue their rebuild (a label GM Walt Jocketty doesn’t like, but that already accurately describes what they’re doing) is that they do have good assets to trade, beginning with Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman. Frazier is signed to a reasonable deal through 2016, after which he’ll be arbitration eligible for one more season. He’ll be 30 in February, so it’s unlikely he’ll be part of the next good Reds team. Given his exceptional power (35 home runs in 2015) and strong defense, he should attract a ton of interest, even though he faded badly down the stretch. The Reds should expect to get a nice return for him, including at least one top 100-type prospect. There aren’t many recent offseason trades involving players of Frazier’s talent with two years of service time remaining, but suffice it to say that Frazier’s value ought to be significant. The Angels or perhaps a surprise team like the Indians or White Sox could make sense as trade partners.

USATSI_8767494_154513410_lowresAs for Chapman, closers with one year of service time remaining are traded quite frequently, but Chapman is so blindingly great that his value is should be closer to that of, say, a no. 2-type starter than a closer. The Mariners and other teams could be possible trade partners, and the Diamondbacks have shown interest in the past. The Reds should have little trouble finding a market, although their path to a trade could be complicated, if only slightly, by the availability of excellent relievers like Craig Kimbrel and Darren O’Day through either trade or free agency. If the Reds can’t find an offer they like, perhaps they could really roll the dice and try to use Chapman as a starter, hoping to market him as an ace in July, but that might be overly ambitious, since he’s already more valuable than most starters anyway.

The Reds also ought to consider trading Brandon Phillips if there are any takers (and if he’ll accept a trade — he has ten-and-five rights). Phillips is coming off a solid 2.6-fWAR season, but at 34, he might not have many good years left. The Yankees, Angels, Orioles, Royals and White Sox could all be potential trade partners.

The Braves’ trade of Kimbrel to the Padres illustrates one approach the Reds could take to dealing Frazier or Chapman. The Braves used Kimbrel, in part, to clear future salary, getting rid of Melvin Upton Jr.’s contract in the deal. The Reds could take a similar approach by packaging Frazier along with Homer Bailey, who has four expensive years remaining on his contract and won’t be back until at least next summer after having Tommy John surgery last May. That would give the Reds greater payroll flexibility, which should come in handy next time they’re ready to contend.

Then again, that would be selling low on Bailey, who is only 29 and seems likely to recover. And while the Reds have about $82MM already on the books for 2016, that number drops to about $67MM in 2017, with about a third of that going to Joey Votto. Two of the Reds’ highest-paid players in 2015, Votto and Phillips, performed well. Another, Jay Bruce, can become a free agent after 2016 if the Reds let him. (Bruce might have been a more interesting trade candidate this winter if he’d hit better than .226/.294/.434 in 2015; perhaps the Reds could get the most value for him by waiting and hoping he gets off to a good start next season.) And two more, Bailey and Devin Mesoraco, ought to recover from their injuries and eventually provide value. Beyond Frazier, Chapman and Phillips, then, the Reds need not be in any rush to trade their veterans until they get the right offers.

Assuming the Reds do consider trading Frazier, Chapman, Phillips and perhaps others, they could pursue any number of player types in return. The only positions where the Reds appear relatively set for the medium-term future are catcher (Mesoraco), first base (Votto) and center field (Billy Hamilton, whose running and fielding give him plenty of value despite a second consecutive disappointing season at the plate). That’s not to say there aren’t other potentially helpful players, just that none of them are obviously set at any one position. Left fielder Adam Duvall, for example, hit reasonably well for the Reds after they acquired him in the Mike Leake trade, but he’s 27; playing him every day need not be a priority. And Eugenio Suarez hits well enough to play somewhere, although he might not be a shortstop in the long term.

There’s even less certainty in the rotation. The team did well to add Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb when it traded Cueto, but the Reds’ all-rookie rotation did the team few favors down the stretch. Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias look set to contribute in 2016, but beyond that, the Reds have a lot of sorting out to do with Finnegan, Lamb, Keyvius Sampson, David Holmberg, Josh Smith, Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot and, eventually, top prospect Robert Stephenson. Given the attrition rates of young pitchers, and the fact that some of their existing talent looks a bit fringy, the Reds could easily stand to add more pitching in upcoming trades.

Of course, while the Reds’ most obvious course of action at this point is to trade veterans for young players, they still have to put a team on the field in 2016. They can use a starting pitcher to soak up 150 innings — a cheap deal for someone like Bud Norris, Kyle Kendrick or former Reds Aaron Harang or Simon might make sense. They could also sign a buy-low pitcher like Doug Fister and hope he regains enough value to land good talent at the deadline.

Bullpen help will also likely be a priority, given the possible departures of Chapman and Manny Parra. If Chapman heads elsewhere, the team could probably move J.J. Hoover or Jumbo Diaz into the closer’s role, and it shouldn’t spend heavily on a closer. Bringing back Burke Badenhop at an effective cost of $2.5MM ($4MM minus a $1.5MM buyout) might make sense for the Reds, and Badenhop could pick up his end of the option, since he would sacrifice the buyout if he rejected it. And either re-signing Parra or adding a Neal Cotts lefty type would also help, particularly if the Reds are committed to using Finnegan as a starter.

The Reds could also pursue position players, but it’s difficult to say what type of player they might be interested in until we see which position players they trade, if any, and whether anyone from those trades can step in right away. They’re set to lose two bench players in Brayan Pena and Skip Schumaker (whose option they shouldn’t exercise), but they likely won’t miss either one. Tucker Barnhart is a decent replacement for Pena, and Schumaker was a drain on the Reds both offensively and defensively, especially now that he’s more of a poor defensive corner outfielder than a poor defensive second baseman.

The key question for the Reds, then, is exactly how far they want their rebuilding effort to go. Of all the veterans the Reds could trade, the most intriguing one might be Votto, who seems likely to stay. Votto has full no-trade protection, and his enormous contract would make trading him a logistical headache, but let’s consider what dealing him might do for the organization. Votto just finished an exceptional .314/.459/.541 season that might have been the best of his career. However, he’s already 32, and as great as he is now, the Reds’ $199MM commitment to him through his age-39 season borders on the absurd, and his value might never be higher. Votto’s contract is highly likely to go south at some point. He’s clearly underpaid right now, and probably also will be next year, but he likely won’t be by the time the Reds are ready to contend.

So what should the Reds do? The fantasy-baseball answer is that they should trade him, but it’s obviously rare for teams to trade excellent players they still control for nine more years. Surely, the Reds might argue, there’s a way to build for the future without trading a star who can still be with the team for almost a decade more. Players like Votto are hard to find, and even in a rebuilding year, he’ll have value for the Reds, in that he’s a popular homegrown player who would make an otherwise young team worth watching. An aggressive executive like Billy Beane or Jeff Luhnow would surely consider trading Votto, assuming he were to waive his no-trade clause. But it’s unclear whether Jocketty, who hasn’t rebuilt a team recently, might take a similar path.

In any case, the Reds will spend the 2016 season regrouping, and if they end up grabbing headlines this offseason, it will probably be because of who they’re trading away, not who they’re getting. In early October, the Reds announced that they would keep manager Bryan Price for next season, despite the team’s struggles this year. And why not? Price was already under contract, and as long as the Reds believed him capable of nurturing their younger players, there was little point in replacing him. Maybe if they were a bit closer to turning a corner, they would have given a new manager a chance. As it stands, maybe they want to wait until their rebuild is a little further along before they make a change.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays already have an excellent defense and (now that almost everyone is healthy) a deep rotation, so their main offseason goal will be to add enough bats to get back into the AL East hunt.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $111.5MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023)
  • Chris Archer, SP: $23MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
  • James Loney, 1B: $8MM through 2016
  • Matt Moore, SP: $7.5MM through 2016 (plus club options for 2017-19)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Even following a 2014-15 offseason that saw them deal several veterans, the Rays were still a tough out last season, finishing with an 80-82 record.  President of baseball operations Matthew Silverman is already on record as stating that after a busy year of both roster and front office shuffling, this winter “could be more of “a ’normal’ offseason during which we can focus all our efforts on advancing the organization.”  For the Rays, of course, “normal” doesn’t include any expensive free agent signings.  Owner Stuart Sternberg said it’s “not overly likely” that the club’s 2016 payroll will remain at the modest $75-$76MM range of the last two seasons, though this doesn’t necessarily mean Sternberg will order a particularly drastic cut.

Since roughly $29.78MM is already committed for four players next year, Silverman will have to be creative with his offseason maneuvers.  This will include figuring out the Rays’ 11 arbitration-eligible players, one of the league’s biggest arb classes.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz figures the Rays will owe roughly $28.9MM in arbitration salaries if they tender everyone, which would bring their total to $58.68MM for 15 players.

Solid 2015 contributors like Logan Forsythe, Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Guyer will obviously be tendered contracts, as will Alex Cobb though he won’t be back from Tommy John surgery until late next season.  One potential avenue for reducing the 2016 payroll would be to explore signing some of these players (Forsythe, Smyly, Ramirez or even Cobb on a somewhat unique deal given his health situation) to extensions.  The Rays are no strangers to locking up young players early in their careers, and this strategy is likely to continue under Silverman as it did under Friedman.

The decision to tender Rene Rivera or J.P. Arencibia could determine the backup catcher’s job if the Rays are comfortable with Curt Casali getting most of the action.  Rivera’s defense likely gives him the edge over Arencibia’s power, given the value that Tampa Bay places on pitch-framing.  Of course, it’s also possible that the Rays could look to solidify things behind the plate by acquiring a new everyday catcher and using Casali as the backup.

Desmond Jennings and Jake McGee present a couple of interesting cases for the Rays.  Jennings missed almost all of 2015 with knee injuries, so if the team isn’t sure if he’ll be a viable everyday answer on the Tropicana Field turf, the Rays could explore a trade.  Left field could then be filled by a platoon of Guyer and a left-handed bat (perhaps a re-signed Grady Sizemore), or potentially another offseason acquisition.

McGee had some injuries as well last season but pitched brilliantly (2.41 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 6.00 K/BB rate over 37 1/3 IP) when healthy.  With Brad Boxberger also coming off a strong season as closer, however, the Rays may feel McGee’s projected $4.7MM arbitration price tag is too costly.  The Rays have enough of a history of successful reliever reclamation projects that they could choose to rebuild another arm rather than pay McGee.  On the flip side, Silverman could look to gain cost-certainty over McGee by signing him to an extension and then team him with Boxberger to pursue a Royals-esque strategy of winning with defense and a lockdown bullpen.

That defense was aided by the emergence of Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier as everyday players at second and center field, respectively.  Forsythe broke out in his second year as a Ray, hitting .281/.359/.444 with 17 homers over 615 PA and also providing above-average glovework.  Kiermaier had roughly a league-average year at the plate but still generated a whopping 5.5 fWAR thanks to his elite center field glove — his 40.7 UZR/150 and 42 Defensive Runs Saved were by far the highest of any player in baseball.

These two and Evan Longoria will be the locks in next year’s Rays lineup.  Elsewhere around the diamond, Steven Souza will have the inside track on the right field job again, while James Loney is likely to remain at first base since Tampa Bay probably won’t find much trade interest in his $8MM salary and declining production.  Richie Shaffer will likely get some at-bats spelling Loney against left-handed opponents, and Shaffer could also see some platoon action at DH.

Free agent John Jaso wouldn’t require too big of a contract to return as a part-time DH, though even something like a two-year/$14MM deal (or even a one-year/$6MM) could be too rich for the Rays’ taste.  Since Jaso can only hit righties and can’t play the field, the Rays are probably more apt to pursue a player with greater versatility.  A left-handed hitting veteran who can play part-time at both DH or either corner outfield spot would be ideal; essentially the Rays could use an upgraded version of David DeJesus, who filled a DH/LF role before being dealt to the Angels last summer.

Shortstop has been filled by veterans Yunel Escobar and Asdrubal Cabrera over the past two seasons, and Tampa Bay will have another vacancy at the position since Cabrera will look for a deal that’s beyond the Rays’ price range.  The pickings are somewhat slim on the 2015-16 free agent shortstop market, though in my opinion, Alexei Ramirez stands out as a potential target that would fit the Rays’ M.O. of signing veterans looking to rebuild their value on a one-year deal.  Ramirez may not be available on the open market, however, if the White Sox exercise their $10MM club option on his services on the heels of a nice second half.

The Rays probably aren’t looking for a shortstop on a multi-year commitment given that two of their top prospects (Daniel Robertson and Willy Adames) are both shortstops, and Robertson could potentially hit the majors by mid-to-late 2016.  A platoon of Tim Beckham and Nick Franklin could fill the void at short until Robertson is ready, and it’s not inconceivable that either of those formerly highly-touted prospects could themselves break out.

Matt Moore had an overall shaky season in his return from Tommy John surgery, though the southpaw looked better over his last four starts of the year.  If Moore and Smyly (who missed time with a minor tear in his labrum) are both healthy and productive, the Rays rotation could be one of the best in the game with those two left-handers, Jake Odorizzi and ace Chris Archer leading the way.  As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently observed, the Rays will also have a load of fifth starter depth in the form of Ramirez, Matt Andriese, Alex Colome, Nate Karns, Cobb when he’s healthy and top prospect Blake Snell knocking on the door.

This type of pitching depth can be helpful to the Rays in two ways.  Firstly, they could simply keep it and guard themselves against the kind of major injuries that befell Moore, Cobb or Smyly over the last two years.  Along those same lines, the Rays could use an extra starter in a relief role to bolster the bullpen.  Andriese and Colome were mostly used out of the pen in 2015, and it’s possible Cobb could return as a reliever in order to slowly ease him back after his surgery.

On the other hand, a starter could also be used as a trade chip.  In less than a year running Tampa Bay’s front office, Silverman has already shown himself to be a very aggressive dealer in his efforts to restock the farm system, so if he makes a similar trade market splash when focused on the Major League roster, there’s no shortage of options.  We can safely assume that Archer is staying put, though could pre-arb arms like Odorizzi or Ramirez be moved for a big return?  Ramirez quietly posted a 2.95 ERA over his last 128 innings (22 starts) of 2015 and while that’s certainly promising, the Rays could also explore selling high.

Smyly or Moore could also be attractive commodities in potential deals if other teams are satisfied that both are healthy.  Each left-hander is controllable — Smyly is in his second of four arbitration years and Moore is on an option-heavy contract that could run through 2019.  Lower-level starters like Colome or Andriese could also be shopped for smaller parts.

The Rays hung in the Wild Card race until mid-August, and that was even after Kevin Jepsen was traded to Minnesota, a deal that reportedly cast a disappointed pall over the Tampa Bay clubhouse.  As Silverman indicated, the front office’s attention will now be more firmly directed on the season at hand rather than just at the future.  Don’t be surprised if the Rays are again involved in a plethora of deals and are getting a lot of playoff contender buzz come Spring Training.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians underperformed in the season’s first half but rode a strong second half onto the fringes of the American League Wild Card race late in the year. Cleveland finished with a bizarre record of 81-80, as a rained-out contest with the Tigers was never made up with both teams eliminated from postseason play. Newly promoted president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff will look to improve upon that win total in the upcoming offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Kipnis, 2B: $45.5MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Corey Kluber, RHP: $36.5MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Yan Gomes, C: $20.95MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
  • Carlos Carrasco, RHP: $19.6625MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 option)
  • Chris Johnson, 3B/1B: $17.5MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Michael Brantley: $15MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $9.45MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Contract Options

  • Ryan Raburn, OF: $3MM club option with a $100K buyout

Free Agents

With a little more than $41MM committed to the 2016 payroll plus another $15MM or so in arbitration raises looming, plus 10 spots at or near the league minimum, Cleveland’s payroll presently projects to about $61MM. That’d be about $26MM south of their Opening Day mark from 2015, and while it’s not clear if they’ll be willing to spend back up to that level — the team did, after all, eat $10MM in the trade that sent Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to Atlanta — there appears to be a fair amount of room to make additions. Significant additions, however, may not be as necessary as one would think when glancing at the team’s record.

On paper, the 2015 Indians look like a club that should’ve contended for a playoff spot more credibly than they actually did. The team finished eighth in the Majors with a collective 3.68 ERA on the strength of an impressive, team-controlled rotation and a bullpen filled with quality arms. On the offensive side of the spectrum, Cleveland’s hitters combined to hit .256/.325/.401, which translates to a wRC+ of 99. (That is to say, essentially, their hitters’ collective production was one percent below the league average.)

Given those figures and he fact that the team’s pending free agents are more role players than everyday contributors, there’s reason to believe that Antonetti, Chernoff and the rest of the front office don’t need a drastic overhaul to experience better results on the field next year. A rebound from Yan Gomes and a full season of the incredible Francisco Lindor (my personal pick for AL Rookie of the Year) will go a long ways toward improving the club’s record. That said, there are still some very clear areas of need.

First and foremost is the team’s lack of production at third base. Indians third basemen combined to slash just .228/.273/.356. While players like Giovanny Urshela and Jose Ramirez graded out well defensively, neither provided much in the way of offense. Lonnie Chisenhall, long hoped to be the future at third base, now looks like more of an answer in right field due to the strong defensive contributions he turned in following the change. Chris Johnson has a good deal of experience at the hot corner but has a questionable glove and significant platoon issues, making it a stretch to use him as an everyday option there.

The free agent market offers little in terms of certainty at third base, but Cleveland could make a run at David Freese to fill the need. A slightly above-average bat and slightly below-average glove, he’s not an exciting option but could solidify the position. His age — he’ll play next season at 33 — figures to keep his price down, to some extent. Daniel Murphy could be another option, even though the longtime Mets infielder has spent far more time at second base than third base in his career.

Turning to the trade market, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar and Luis Valbuena represent potential short-term fixes. Each is signed through 2016. Trevor Plouffe’s name figures to come up as a potential trade candidate given the emergence of Miguel Sano, though it’s worth wondering if the Twins would be averse to an intra-division swap. The two sides have lined up on a pair of trades in the past six years, but those were minor deals involving Jim Thome and Carl Pavano in the late stages of each veteran’s career, whereas Plouffe is in the midst of his prime. A higher-ceiling medium-term trade candidate would be Todd Frazier, but the cost of a cross-state swap with the Reds would be significantly higher than the cost to acquire any of the previously mentioned names. While I personally feel the Reds should be open to dealing Frazier to accelerate their rebuild, there’s been no indication that such a scenario is something to which Cincinnati is open. Displaced Phillies third baseman Cody Asche could be an even longer-term option, though he’d be a buy-low pickup after a fairly unproductive 2015 season. If those struggled continued, Cleveland would be right back where it started.

The rest of the Cleveland infield is more or less set, with Lindor manning shortstop and Jason Kipnis returning to reprise his role at second base. Carlos Santana figures to see the bulk of the playing time at first base, though Antonetti and Chernoff could seek help in the first base/DH realm. Cleveland is lacking in right-handed pop, for instance, making someone like Mike Napoli or Steve Pearce a fit, at least on paper. If handedness isn’t an issue, John Jaso is an underrated candidate for clubs in need of some DH production, and Justin Morneau could be lower-cost first base/DH option. Either would require a platoon partner, however.

In the outfield, Michael Brantley will again man left field after emerging as one of baseball premier corner outfielders over the past two seasons. Right field figures to be manned primarily by Chisenhall, whose glove out there was highly impressive to Cleveland. Chisenhall posted unbelievable marks of +11 DRS and +9.3 UZR in just 354 innings in right, and while he’s not likely to maintain those rates and save somewhere in range of 35 to 40 runs next year, he’s probably earned a look in at least a platoon capacity. (As mentioned before, Johnson’s been suggested by the Cleveland media as a probable platoon partner.)

The question, then, is center field. Abraham Almonte impressed in 51 games, hitting .261/.324/.455 with sound defense, but he’s never shown that level of production in the Majors until arriving in Cleveland. Almonte hit .233/.283/.336 in 364 plate appearances between the Mariners and Padres before joining Cleveland. He does bring a career .287/.369/.437 Triple-A batting line (999 PAs) to the table.

Nevertheless, banking on that productivity translating to the Majors in 2016 is a sizable risk for a team that will aim to contend and does have some financial flexibility. Given Almonte’s unproven nature, the Indians could, at minimum, seek out a platoon partner. Though Almonte is a switch-hitter, he struggled against lefties in 2015 and has been far worse against them throughout his career. Rajai Davis would be a nice fit on the free agent market, and Justin Ruggiano could be a lower-cost option as well.

A longer-term fix would be to pursue a trade of a controllable center fielder, and one name in which Cleveland expressed interest this summer is Marcell Ozuna. The Indians’ interest in Ozuna pre-dates their acquisition of Almonte, but Ozuna’s offensive upside is more significant than that of Almonte. The 24-year-old Marlins outfielder batted .269/.317/.455 with 23 homers in 2014 but has fallen out of favor with owner Jeffrey Loria this year. Ozuna was demoted to Triple-A on the heels of a 1-for-36 slump and kept in the minors long enough to prompt accusations of service time manipulation from agent Scott Boras. While some may roll their eyes at such allegations due to the source of said complaint, it’s worth noting that Ozuna will narrowly fall shy of Super Two designation. (The question is not whether a demotion was warranted, but rather whether the length was necessary from a developmental standpoint or boiled down to financial manipulation.) Ozuna hit well in Triple-A but upon returning to the Majors likened the demotion to a jail sentence. Reports since have indicated that Loria has soured on the talented Ozuna, who is controlled through the 2019 season.

Miami would most likely ask young pitching in return for Ozuna, and Cleveland is perhaps better suited than any team in baseball to accommodate that desire. Rotation options for 2016 include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson and Trevor Bauer. Of all those names, Bauer stands out as someone who could be sent to Miami in an Ozuna trade. The former No. 3 overall pick led the AL with 79 walks this season and finished with an ugly 4.58 ERA, though he was very good through the season’s first few months before his walk rate spiraled out of control. He’s controlled through 2020 and has had more recent success, so his value would seem to be higher than Ozuna’s. As such, other pieces need to be involved (perhaps Cleveland could add prospects and push for Prado to be included in a deal as well). But, an Ozuna-for-Bauer framework would, at its core, represent a swap of two high-ceiling, controllable assets that have struggled in their current setting.

If the team does trade a starter, adding a veteran arm on a one-year deal to provide some depth would seem to be a prudent decision. Anderson was sharp in 2015, but his minuscule strikeout rate and BABIP bring in question the sustainability of that success. Tomlin, too, was impressive, maintaining his increased strikeout rate from 2014, but he hasn’t thrown more than 144 innings in a season since 2011. Gavin Floyd has expressed interest in returning and shouldn’t cost more than a few million dollars. Chris Young could also be a one-year deal candidate, and reclamation projects such as Doug Fister, Mat Latos and Bud Norris could all be looking at such contracts as well.

Left-handed depth in the bullpen will need to be an area of focus, as Nick Hagadone underwent elbow surgery that will cost him six to nine months (making him a possible non-tender). Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto are internal options, but Crockett had a poor 2015 between Triple-A and the Majors, and Soto has averaged more than five walks per nine innings at Triple-A in two seasons. Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and Zach McAllister will be the primary righties, and Jeff Manship’s surprisingly dominant season has earned him a look in 2016 as well.

An under-the-radar need for Cleveland is to improve its bench. In recent seasons, the since-shed albatross contracts of Swisher and Bourn not only hampered payroll but took a pair of valuable roster spots that left bench options thin. Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn seem unlikely to return, so adding some younger, versatile bench pieces would be of benefit. Jose Ramirez and his glove could have the inside track to one bench spot, and Almonte could become a fourth outfielder if a center fielder is acquired. Roberto Perez is one of the game’s better backup catchers, so that position isn’t an area of need.

For all the speculation about the ways in which Cleveland could look to improve, the fact remains that major improvement isn’t needed. A full season of Lindor will be a boon to the team’s playoff hopes, and a rotation fronted by Kluber, Carraso and Salazar should be formidable, as should the returning right-handed arms in the bullpen. Cleveland has a few notable holes, but they have the trade chips necessary to fill in the gaps. And, unlike the past two offseasons, they have some financial firepower to supplement the roster if that’s a more preferable course of action as well.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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An initially disastrous season for the Red Sox provided some hope for the future as several young players stepped up during a late-season surge.  The new Dave Dombrowski/Mike Hazen-led front office will now have to add the final pieces around these emerging young stars to get the Sox back into contention in 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $84MM through 2021
  • Rick Porcello, SP: $82MM through 2019
  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $75MM through 2019 ($17MM club option for 2020)
  • Hanley Ramirez, 1B/LF/DH: $66MM through 2018 ($22MM vesting option for 2019)
  • Rusney Castillo, OF: $56.5MM through 2020 (Castillo can opt out after 2019 season)
  • Allen Craig, 1B/OF: $21MM through 2017 ($13MM club option for 2018)
  • David Ortiz, DH: $16MM through 2016 (club/vesting option for 2017 worth at least $10MM)
  • Wade Miley, SP: $15.25MM through 2017 ($12MM club option for 2018 that could increase in value to $14MM)
  • Koji Uehara, RP: $9MM through 2016
  • Ryan Hanigan, C: $4.5MM through 2016 ($3.75MM club option for 2017)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

In 2014, rotation struggles and underachieving rookies were major reasons the Red Sox finished last in the AL East.  In 2015, rotation struggles and underachieving veterans were major reasons the Red Sox finished last in the AL East.  Boston has now suffered through three last-place finishes in four seasons (though the year outside the cellar resulted in the 2013 World Series title), and it seems like the first order of business is to upgrade the starting pitching.

Per the MLBTR Transaction Tracker, Dombrowski’s history indicates that he is more likely to acquire a big-name starter via trade rather than via free agency.  Though the 2015-16 free agent pitching market is deep with top-tier starters and includes one name (David Price) that Dombrowski has already gone out of his way to acquire before, it remains to be seen if Red Sox ownership has changed its stance about not giving expensive long-term contracts to pitchers in their 30s.  It was just a year ago, remember, that this stance ultimately led to Jon Lester leaving town.

If the Sox aren’t willing to go beyond five or maybe even four years for an ace, it’s not going to help them land the likes of Price, Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto, all of whom could realistically find six-year deals on the open market.  Zack Greinke might be amenable to a five-year deal since he’s about to turn 32, though would Boston then spend over $125MM for a pitcher’s age 32-36 seasons, even an elite pitcher like Greinke?

In the September 23rd edition of the MLBTR Newsletter, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes made the case that one of Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray, Matt Harvey, Chris Sale or Stephen Strasburg could be dealt this offseason, even though there’s no current evidence that any are being shopped.  (Gray’s availability, in particular, has been emphatically denied.)  Carrasco stands out as an intriguing option since Boston discussed him in trade talks last summer, though Cleveland was said to be just gauging Carrasco’s value rather than actually trying to deal him.  If the Indians have a (sure to be high) price in mind for what it would take to obtain Carrasco, they could explore deals this winter.  One would certainly expect Boston to at least check in on Carrasco and any of the aforementioned starters should they be made available, plus any other front-of-the-rotation pitchers whose teams could be open to trades.

Dombrowski and Hazen have lots of options if they want to trade for an ace given the number of quality prospects within the Red Sox system.  Boston’s top six prospects are all ranked in MLB.com’s current listing of the top 100 minor leaguers in baseball, not to mention several other recent first-rounders that didn’t make the top-100 cut.  It’s also possible the Red Sox could deal one of their current starters in a trade for a top-of-the-rotation arm, since the Sox are in the somewhat curious position of both lacking in top-tier starters while also having a bit of a rotation logjam.

The Sox rotation was unquestionably one of the game’s poorest in the first few months of the 2015 season, yet for the year as a whole, Red Sox starters finished a respectable 13th in starter fWAR (11.9) among all 30 teams.  The rotation had a 4.75 ERA in the first half and a 3.99 ERA in the second half, though the peripheral numbers were mostly the same on both sides of the All-Star break.  It’s no surprise that the starters’ numbers began to look a lot better once Boston upgraded its defense, so it’s possible the Sox already have something close to a playoff-contender rotation already, especially if Clay Buchholz is healthy.  (His $13MM club option is seen as a virtual lock to be exercised.)

The 2016 rotation shapes up as Buchholz, impressive rookie Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello, whose $82MM extension kicks in next season.  Porcello is one of the arms who performed better in the second half, though it’s highly unlikely other teams will explore trades for him given his rough first half and that big pay bump.  That leaves Wade Miley, Joe Kelly and Henry Owens competing for two spots, and quite possibly just one spot should Boston indeed acquire an ace.  The highly-touted Owens would be a big trade chip, and while Kelly and Miley both had their share of struggles in 2015, Kelly is just entering his arbitration years while Miley is owed a not-exorbitant $15.25MM through 2017.  Pairing Kelly or Miley with a couple of blue chip prospects would certainly be enough to get the ball rolling on trade talks.  Rich Hill surprisingly exploded back onto the scene in MLB with four impressive late-season starts, so Boston could explore re-signing the veteran to add some more depth.

It’s also possible the Red Sox could use some of their surplus arms in the bullpen, with Kelly in particular having been mentioned by some pundits as perhaps better suited to relief work.  Sox relievers ranked 26th in ERA (4.25), 29th in xFIP (4.36) and dead last in both FIP (4.64) and fWAR (-1.5) last season, indicating some vast room for improvement.  Koji Uehara will return as closer after putting up more strong numbers in his age-40 season, though it remains to be seen if he’ll still be as effective after suffering a fractured wrist last August.

Lefties Robbie Ross and Tommy Layne and righties Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara are all slated to return, while veteran southpaw Craig Breslow could be let go in free agency.  Aside from Uehara’s injury-shortened season, though, there were no dominant campaigns in the Sox bullpen. Sub-par bullpens plagued Dombrowski’s tenure in Detroit, and now he’ll have to upgrade another flawed relief corps in his new job.

Around the diamond, the Red Sox are more or less set at every position thanks to a wealth of young players who emerged last season.  Beyond stalwarts David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, shortstop Xander Bogaerts and center fielder Mookie Betts stepped up as very productive everyday Major Leaguers and could be future superstars.  Injuries opened the door for Blake Swihart to make his big league debut a bit earlier than expected and the catcher fared respectably well in his rookie season.  Jackie Bradley enjoyed an absolutely torrid month (1.361 OPS in 102 PA from August 6 to September 7) after regaining an everyday outfield job, so if he can find a middle ground between that unsustainable production and his below-replacement numbers in 2014, he can easily keep a starting job thanks to his outstanding glove.  Rusney Castillo is still a work in progress at the plate, though the Cuban outfielder also possesses a tremendous glove and should at least see part-time duty, possibly in a platoon with Brock Holt.

While these young players all contributed, however, it was most of Boston’s veteran core that let the club down last season.  Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli were both traded, while Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez remain the two biggest scapegoats for the 2015 season.  Sandoval has rebounded from poor seasons before (he had a 1.2 fWAR season in 2010 sandwiched in between 5.2 fWAR and 5.3 fWAR, respectively) though that was five years ago and his 2010 campaign wasn’t nearly as rough as his sub-replacement performance in 2015.

Sandoval, at least, has a set position at third base.  Ramirez doesn’t even have that luxury, as the Sox removed him from the left field job after one of the worst defensive seasons in recent memory.  With Ortiz locked in at DH, Ramirez has been working out at first base in an effort to find a spot to play, though it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to handle the position (and if Ramirez plays first, that blocks 25-year-old Travis Shaw, who delivered a strong rookie season).  There is hope that Sandoval and Ramirez could rebound with better fitness, though there have also been whispers that Boston coaches aren’t pleased with Ramirez’s overall effort level.

Could Sandoval or Ramirez be traded this offseason?  I’m sure Dombrowski and Hazen will put feelers out, though both players’ stock could hardly be lower.  Ramirez’s defense will further limit his market, since it’s hard to imagine an NL club would be comfortable putting him anywhere in the field without the DH spot as a fallback.  Unless there’s something to these rumors of enmity between Ramirez and the coaching staff, it’s probably unlikely that Boston would outright release Ramirez or make a salary-eating trade to get him off the roster just yet.  The Sox could try him at first base in 2016 and if that still doesn’t work, slide him into the DH role in 2017 if Ortiz retires.

Holt is almost a one-man bench by himself, giving the Sox lots of flexibility as they look for backups.  They’ll probably be in the market for at least one bench player to go with Holt, Shaw, Deven Marrero as a utility infielder and the backup catcher.  Christian Vazquez should be recovered from Tommy John surgery and veteran Ryan Hanigan is still under contract, so there could be a Spring Training battle to see who will be Swihart’s understudy, or a trade could be in the works.  Vazquez himself was a highly-touted prospect before his injury, particularly on defense; if he proves himself as healthy in the spring, he would draw attention from several teams looking for a long-term answer behind the plate.

One of the club’s biggest questions for 2016 was answered when the Red Sox announced that John Farrell would indeed return as manager.  Interim skipper Torey Lovullo signed a two-year contract to return to his bench coach role (and forgo any manager offers from other teams this winter), so the Sox have a trusted option in place should Farrell have a setback in his recovery from lymphoma.  Another update about Farrell’s health will come later this month, and hopefully Farrell will have a clear path to a return on Opening Day.

Dombrowski faces an interesting challenge in taking over a Red Sox team that clearly has a lot of talent on the Major and minor league levels, yet has greatly underachieved over the last two seasons.  Hiring Hazen is an acknowledgement of that player development and (partial) player acquisition success, though getting sustained results on the field has been a challenge in the post-Theo Epstein era.  Dombrowski’s history as a front office executive has been filled with creative transactions that worked swimmingly well for his teams, and since he’s armed with both a loaded farm system and a luxury tax-level payroll to play with, the first Red Sox offseason under the new regime could be a busy one.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2016

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As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work.  You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet!  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known.  We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here.  In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.

Angels (6)

  • Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM
  • Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM
  • Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM
  • Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM
  • Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM
  • Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM

Astros (8)

  • Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM
  • Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM
  • Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM
  • Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM
  • Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM
  • Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM
  • Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K
  • Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM

Athletics (15)

  • Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM
  • Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM
  • Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM
  • Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM
  • Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM
  • Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM
  • Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM
  • Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM
  • Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM
  • Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM
  • Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM
  • Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K
  • Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM
  • A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K
  • Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K

Blue Jays (9)

  • Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
  • Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
  • Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
  • Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
  • Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
  • Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
  • Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
  • Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
  • Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K

Braves (5)

  • Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM
  • Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K
  • Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM
  • Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K

Brewers (3)

  • Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM
  • Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM
  • Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM

Cardinals (7)

  • Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
  • Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
  • Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
  • Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
  • Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
  • Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
  • Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM

Cubs (8)

  • Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
  • Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
  • Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
  • Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
  • Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM
  • Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM
  • Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
  • Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM

Diamondbacks (8)

  • Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM
  • Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.
  • Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K
  • Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM
  • Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM
  • Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM
  • Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM
  • A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM

Dodgers (9)

  • A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
  • Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
  • Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
  • Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
  • Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
  • Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
  • Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
  • Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
  • Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K

Giants (4)

  • Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
  • Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
  • Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
  • George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM

Indians (7)

  • Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
  • Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
  • Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
  • Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
  • Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
  • Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
  • Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K

Mariners (3)

  • Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM
  • Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM
  • Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM
  • Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*

Marlins (9)

  • Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
  • Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
  • David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
  • Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
  • A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
  • Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
  • Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
  • Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
  • Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM

Mets (8)

  • Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
  • Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
  • Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
  • Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
  • Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
  • Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K

Nationals (9)

  • Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM
  • Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM
  • Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM
  • Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM
  • Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM
  • Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM
  • Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM
  • Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM

Orioles (10)

  • Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM
  • Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K
  • Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K
  • Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM
  • Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM
  • Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM
  • Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM
  • Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM
  • Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM
  • Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM
  • David Lough (2.149) – $800K

Padres (8)

  • Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
  • Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
  • Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection;  has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
  • Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
  • Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
  • Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
  • Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
  • Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM

Phillies (4)

  • Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM
  • Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM
  • Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM
  • Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM

Pirates (9)

  • Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM
  • Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM
  • Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM
  • Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM
  • Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM
  • Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM
  • Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM
  • Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM
  • Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM

Rangers (10)

  • Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM
  • Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM
  • Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM
  • Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM
  • Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K
  • Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM
  • Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM
  • Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K
  • Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K

Rays (11)

  • Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM
  • Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM
  • Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
  • Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
  • Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
  • Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
  • J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
  • Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
  • Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
  • Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
  • Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM

Red Sox (5)

  • Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM
  • Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K
  • Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM
  • Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM
  • Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K

Reds (4)

  • Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM
  • Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM
  • Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM
  • J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM

Rockies (9)

  • John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM
  • Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM
  • Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM
  • Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM
  • DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM
  • Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM
  • Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM
  • Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM

Royals (8)

  • Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM
  • Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM
  • Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM
  • Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM
  • Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM
  • Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM
  • Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM
  • Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM

Tigers (5)

  • Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
  • Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
  • J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
  • Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
  • Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM

Twins (6)

  • Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM
  • Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM
  • Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM
  • Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM
  • Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM
  • Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM

White Sox (5)

  • Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
  • Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
  • Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
  • Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
  • Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
  • Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K

Yankees (7)

  • Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
  • Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
  • Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
  • Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
  • Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
  • Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
  • Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM

*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.

MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model

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Salaries for arbitration eligible players eclipsed $1 billion in 2015, making the arbitration process more important to team building than ever. At MLB Trade Rumors, we are entering our fifth year of modeling arbitration salaries and have improved the model again for the 2015-16 offseason.

Being able to accurately predict salaries is crucial for teams, and it’s important for MLBTR readers who want to understand the rationale behind teams’ decision-making processes. Teams typically sign free agents before reaching agreements with arbitration eligible players, so budgeting effectively requires a reasonable estimate of how much they will spend on the complete roster once arbitration raises are determined.

Forecasting arbitration salaries is also important for signing young players to long-term deals. Teams have increasingly used such deals to achieve payroll certainty and to avoid the risk of crippling free agent contracts. As a result, teams have used arbitration forecasts many years into the future to determine appropriate spending levels on extensions. Understanding the arbitration process in general is also important for teams seeking to find inefficiencies. Teams succeed by finding bargains on the free agent market, but finding players who will be bargains in the arbitration process is helpful as well.

The basic structure of the arbitration model to be used for this year is the same as in past years. Players are compared to recent players who went through the arbitration process, who played similar positions and who had similar MLB service time. Typically, players qualify for arbitration upon reaching three full years of Major League service time. The top 22 percent of players from the group that has between two and three years of service time also becomes eligible. These players are designated as “Super Two” players and can be arbitration eligible four times before reaching free agency.

A player’s first arbitration salary is based primarily on his most recent season, but on overall career statistics are considered as well. Beyond the first year, players receive raises based more heavily on the most recent season’s performance. Historical performance is only factored in to the extent that it affected a player’s most recent salary. While that may seem counter-intuitive, those familiar with the process have confirmed that this is usually the case in actual arbitration hearings.

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

Hitters are typically evaluated using batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases and plate appearances. There are some positional adjustments, but typically the added defensive value of a shortstop relative to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration hearings as it is on the free agent market. Hitters also can receive larger arbitration awards if they have unique accomplishments, such as winning an MVP award. Pitchers typically are evaluated using innings pitched and earned run average. Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds. Unique accomplishments, such as Cy Young Awards, matter for pitchers as well.

In addition to factoring these statistics into the process, the arbitration model also accounts for salary inflation—players are expected to receive more money in 2016 for the same performance than they would have in 2015. Precedents are also important, as we learned when we developed the “Kimbrel Rule.” The Kimbrel Rule limits the maximum margin for a player to exceed the previous record for his player type to $1MM (and similarly, the maximum raise for a non-first time eligible player is $1MM greater than the previous record raise as well). This was developed because Craig Kimbrel’s eye-popping save and ERA numbers entering his first year of arbitration would have led to a projected salary that was unrealistically high. Historically speaking, players do not typically break arbitration records by much greater magnitudes than $1MM.

The arbitration model we use at MLB Trade Rumors has improved over the years. The typical average error is generally around $300K or slightly below, but it does vary significantly based on how many big misses there were in a given year. The more useful metric that we track is the number of players who ultimately earned a salary within 10% of our salary projection. This has steadily increased from 55% in 2012 to 65% in 2015 and hopefully will continue increasing going forward. We have added some other adjustments for this year’s model. Such bells and whistles usually increase predictive efficiency of the model but can hurt in some cases. As a result, our adjustments typically mimic the way that the arbitration process works.

An additional feature of our model at MLB Trade Rumors is that I also pen roughly ten articles each year on unique arbitration cases in a series we’ve previously titled Arbitration Breakdown. Within that series, I look at historical comps for the players in question to determine whether the model is likely to be accurate in a particular case. I personally look forward to not having to write about the challenges of predicting David Price’s salaries anymore, now that he is a free agent. This Price-less set of articles will be released in the coming months, while the actual forecasted salaries for every arbitration eligible player will appear on MLB Trade Rumors during the middle of this week.

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