MLBTR Originals

In last week’s MLBTR Mailbag, some of the topics included a theoretical Bryce Harper extension (which spawned a subsequent poll and Instagram debate) as well the impact of Jerry Dipoto’€™s departure on the Angels, the Twins’€™ offseason, Jedd Gyorko as a shortstop option, Chris Davis’€˜ chances of re-signing in Baltimore and Kyle Kendrick€’s future.

Here are this week’s questions, with a reminder that you can submit questions for the mailbag at any time throughout the week via email (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com) …

“Ray Searage and rest of the Pirates’ staff have consistently turned around struggling starting talent (Liriano, Volquez, Burnett, Happ). Who are possible 2016 projects that could be brought into the rotation?” — Robb W.

Mat Latos is the first guy I think of when I think “Pirates reclamation project.” He’s obviously a highly talented arm and showed even this season that he could still dominate, with an excellent June/July showing that led the Dodgers to trade for him in the first place. Latos has injury problems, to be sure, but he’s still young and had a season catastrophic enough that a one-year deal seems perfectly plausible. And, if you’re a pitcher looking for a one-year deal, why wouldn’t you want to go work with Searage and Jim Benedict in Pittsburgh? I like that fit quite a bit.

One thing going against Latos is that the Pirates have often targeted ground-ball pitchers in the past, and that’s not him. Mike Pelfrey would be a low-cost option who does fit that description. I’d also expect an effort to re-sign Happ, who has been brilliant since the trade but is a bit old for a first-time free agent and doesn’t have a lengthy track record. Those factors can keep him in Pittsburgh’s price range.

“Is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer with his current credentials? If so, what team’s cap makes the most sense for him on his plaque? I am curious since Beltran didn’t seem to be associated with one specific team during his career.” — Dan C.

I think Beltran will (or should) end up in the Hall of Fame, yes. There might be some who consider him a fringe candidate now, but he’ll play at least another season, if not one or two more, in an effort to boost his counting stats, for voters who are particularly concerned with round numbers and milestones. Some might think he’s done accumulating meaningful production, but since May 1, Beltran’s hitting .295/.355/.504 with 18 homers. There’s still life in his bat, and Beltran is going to eventually retire with 400-plus homers, 300-plus steals, 1500-plus runs and RBIs, 70ish wins above replacement and an excellent postseason track record.

I think the Mets make the most sense for him in terms of caps, as he played more games for them than any other franchise and had a few of his best seasons in Queens.

“Which managers do you think will be in the hot seat next week when the season ends?” — Justin B.

Lots of questions like this one this week, so a quick rundown. Matt Williams, I’d imagine, will be out the door for the Nationals. We know Dan Jennings isn’t going to return as the Marlins’ manager as well. The Reds’ underperformance and Bryan Price’s ill-conceived tirade against the Cincinnati media is enough for me to think the Reds will move on as well. I could see both Pat Murphy (Padres) and Walt Weiss (Rockies) being let go in the NL West.

Turning to the AL, I don’t think any of the East skippers are in peril, though Torey Lovullo won’t manage the team, most likely. It’ll be John Farrell or a replacement, which is an awkward situation for the Red Sox, given Farrell’s health. The only candidate that could go in the AL Central would be Robin Ventura, but White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is a big fan. Still, he has to be listed as a consideration, as the team has never really won under him and didn’t live up to the hype this year. In the West, I can see Lloyd McClendon going. Jerry Dipoto may want to bring in his own guy, and the team fell way short of expectations this season.

“Tigers closer, April 2016: Bruce Rondon? Neftali Feliz? Someone not currently in the organization?” — Mark S.

After his 2015 struggles and the embarrassing manner in which he was sent home, I can’t see any way Rondon is closing games in Detroit from day one next season. Feliz has been awful and will almost certainly be non-tendered. I’ll be stunned if Detroit’s closer in 2016 isn’t an offseason acquisition. Al Avila has seen the bullpen’s struggles first-hand over the past few years and will want to make a good impression on ownership and the fans by working to correct it.

“In the last few years, the Astros have unloaded pretty much every expendable MLB player and have relied heavily on the draft to reboot their farm system. Those efforts have come to fruition perhaps a bit earlier than expected, as the team is competing for a playoff spot. Because the Astros have very few long-term commitments (potential extensions for guys like Correa and Springer notwithstanding), do you think it’s possible Houston is a big player in the free agent market this offseason? Maybe go after an ace, such as David Price?” — Nathan B.

I do think they’ll be linked to top-of-the-market names, yes. Houston made a run at Cole Hamels this summer, and while they might not be able to afford Price or convince him to come to Houston (Hamels, after all, vetoed the notion of going there), the dearth of long-term financial commitments on the Astros’ ledger works in their favor, as you said.

The Astros have only $34MM in payroll committed to 2016, and many of the departing free agents have internal replacement candidates. Chris Carter, one of their most expensive arb candidates, seems like a non-tender. In 2017, the commitments drop to about $20MM total.

Houston has a wealth of talent coming up through the system on both sides of the ball that will help keep payroll down and should allow them to push for a starter. It’s also worth noting that next year is the last they’ll control Carlos Gomez; they made that trade with 2015 and 2016 in mind, so it’d be a surprise if they didn’t do everything in their power to make notable improvements to the 2016 roster.

“Who are some of the top second-tier bats who will be available this offseason?” — Robert F.

I’ll answer this one quickly and use it as a means to remind everyone that our full list of 2015-16 free agents is always available on the right-hand side of the page (desktop version, that is).

Dexter Fowler, Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra and Denard Span all come to mind.

“This morning’s ’Three Needs’ piece got me thinking about the many similarities in reality for the Padres and White Sox, and the vastly different tone of coverage for the two clubs since mid-July. Care to weigh in on how two teams who decided to go status quo at the deadline despite being so closely matched in their remote chances for the playoffs, which have been equally bad since, which have roughly the same amount of money committed next season (with a sadly similar percentage of it committed to guys who won’t be worth it), and which are equally bereft of short-term answers in the upper minors, get such totally different play in the national baseball media?” — David J.

The Padres do seem to take more flak for their current situation. I think there are a few reasons for that, the first of which is that so much of their activity came in a relatively short period of time. That frenzied span grabbed more headlines and created more of a buzz, and extra hype leads to extra coverage when the plan doesn’t pan out. Conversely, the Sox spread their moves out more over the course of the winter.

More importantly, though, is that the Sox added in a such a way that took on less long-term risk. David Robertson’s four-year, $46MM contract is sizable, but it falls shy of San Diego’s commitment to Matt Kemp or James Shields, and the Melvin Upton contract was seen in a far more negative light than any of Chicago’s acquisitions. Beyond that, the Padres parted with significant prospect collateral, whereas the Sox made mid-range free agent investments for much of their overhaul. (The Jeff Samardzija trade is one notable exception.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted when I mentioned this to him, the Padres’ strategy felt inherently more flawed. The Padres overloaded on right-handed bats with questionable gloves. I still bought them as a Wild Card contender, personally, but there were a fair amount of naysayers from the beginning.

Lastly, I think the Sox get a pass because they’re in better shape than the Padres. While the team has clear needs, the presence of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon (plus the re-emergence of Erik Johnson) gives them a more compelling rotation than San Diego. And, looking around the lineup, Jose Abreu gives them a star, while Adam Eaton has that upside as well. They need help all around the diamond (though Melky Cabrera has rebounded since early summer), but it’s easier for me to see the White Sox rebounding in 2016.

Both have significant needs, but Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Abreu, Eaton and Robertson is a better starting point than Ross, Shields, Cashner, Myers and Kimbrel, especially considering how quickly Cashner and Shields can depart from that scene.

In last week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Mark Polishuk stepped in and answered questions on Jason Heyward‘s potential of re-signing in St. Louis, a Daniel Murphy qualifying offer, the Red Sox’ pursuit of an ace and Bronson Arroyo‘s future. Let’s dive right into this week’s questions, with a reminder of course that you can email questions at any time throughout the week (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com).

How much would it take for the Nationals to extend Bryce Harper this offseason? Could 10 years at $300M get it done? How about the Stanton contract? — Spencer J.

Harper’s season has been nothing short of incredible, especially factoring in his age. Scott Boras rarely goes the extension route with his clients in the first place, and in Harper’s case, I don’t see how he’d take anything short of a record- and precedent-setting contract extension. As weird as it is to say — $300MM is probably light.

Harper will already earn $5MM in 2016 (bringing his career earnings to $13.65MM, not including endorsements, so it’s not as if he needs the cash desperately). After that he has two more trips through arbitration. If we pencil Harper in for even 80 to 90 percent of his 2015 production next season, he’ll be in line for a historic arb raise. To put it into perspective, Chris Davis got a record $7MM arb raise from his first to second season after hitting 53 homers in 2013. Another huge season could get Harper a raise of $8-9MM, followed by a similarly sized raise for his final arb season. That means that just going year to year, Harper can expect to earn something like $36MM for his final two arbitration seasons.

Let’s assume that Boras would want to set a clear precedent with Harper. Factoring in that $36MM over the first two years and adding on another 11 seasons at a $31MM AAV would result in something like $375MM over 13 years. I’m not sure that anything could get done for less, and that might only be a starting point.

That might sound like complete craziness, depending upon one’s perspective, but the same would’ve been said about a 13-year deal for Giancarlo Stanton last year at this time. Harper’s set to hit free agency heading into his age-26 season. He’ll be even younger than Jason Heyward’s set to be this coming winter and, presumably, will have a strong enough platform that Boras will realistically be seeking contracts worth well north of $30MM annually. Put another way: if Harper hits the open market following the 2018 season as currently projected, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he ends up with a $400MM+ contract. An extension would, in all likelihood, need to reflect that kind of earning power.

With the Angels seemingly out of the division race and struggling to contend for a wildcard spot, how much do you think the departure of Dipoto effected the team? The trades Stoneman made haven’t seemed to help much. What trades and/or free agent signings do you predict for their offseason? — Scott P.

It’s true that Stoneman and Co.’s additions haven’t been all that positive, but I don’t know that you’d have seen a wildly different approach from Dipoto. Avoiding the luxury tax was a mandate while Dipoto was GM as well, and it’s not as if his offseason addition of Matt Joyce paid much in the way of dividends. That’s not to disparage Dipoto, who I think is a very worthy GM candidate for one of the four current openings. Rather, it’s to say that he, too, had his missteps, and to remind that trades are a group effort and not made by one lone decision-maker.

Predicting free agent and trade targets is always difficult, but it’s even more so when it’s still September and the team in question lacks a permanent GM. I don’t expect a big deviation from the desire to avoid the luxury tax, and while they’re shedding the contracts of Chris Iannetta and Joyce, among others, they’re also facing arb raises for Kole Calhoun, Fernando Salas and Cesar Ramos — all of whom will be retained.

As such, my personal expectation is for the Angels to pursue shorter-term upgrades as they did last offseason. Catcher, third base and left field figure to be primary targets. If they’re going to plan for even mid-level spending, they might first have to shed some payroll. In that instance, I’d think second-tier free agents like Daniel Murphy are more likely than those atop the market.

But that’s not the only possibility, of course. Following 2016, the Halos will be free of commitments to C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Joe Smith, which will give the incoming GM quite a bit of breathing room between the team’s payroll and the luxury tax threshold (assuming there are no dramatic changes in the upcoming CBA negotiations, of course). I spoke with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes on the matter, and he feels the Angels could pursue some higher-end pitching this winter with those contracts set to move off the books.

With the surprise success of the Twins this year, do you see them being active in the pitching free agent market? Most of their position player talent is home grown but the pitching staff is definitely not. — Andy V.

The Twins do actually have their fair share of pitching they either drafted or acquired in trades — Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Glen Perkins, Tommy Milone — but they’ve definitely shown a willingness to spend on free agency in recent seasons. I don’t know that that’ll be the case this offseason, though — at least not in the rotation. Jose Berrios — one of the game’s top 25 prospects or so — will join Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, May, Gibson, Duffey and Milone in a crowded, albeit underwhelming slate of options for the Twins. In fact, if anything, they might look to shed some of those veteran obligations (Nolasco in particular).

The Twins would be wise to pick up at least one bullpen arm (perhaps two, especially if May is moved back to the rotation), and they have huge needs at catcher and perhaps shortstop as well, depending on your opinion of Eduardo Escobar (I’m not especially sold on his second-half power spike).

If the Twins do enter the free agent market for pitching, I’d expect more interest in relief help than in starters, as a lot of the power arms they’ve drafted in hopes of quickly ascending to the big league ’pen have stumbled.

What are the chances that the Padres go in to 2016 with Jedd Gyorko as their starting shortstop?  He’s been steady yet unspectacular there this year, which is more than most expected. — Roy T.

Gyorko was never a great defender at third base or second base, and reports on his glovework at shortstop to this point, predictably, aren’t great. I’d be pretty surprised if San Diego was willing to run him out there at shortstop for a full season, especially since it’s not as if they have lock-down options at third and second that can’t afford to be displaced. The Padres already punted on defense heading into a season last winter, and they’ve been one of the worst defensive units in all of baseball. Penciling in Gyorko at shortstop would be not only failing to address that need, it’d be exacerbating the existing problem.

There’s a history of big contracts to first basemen becoming complete disasters, with the perfect example being Ryan Howard. You could make arguments for Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols all being under some bad contracts as well. That being said, should the Orioles push hard to re-sign Chris Davis? If they don’t re-sign Davis, who do you guys see as top targets the Orioles should pursue (at any position)? — Dillon A.

At this point, if the Orioles were to re-sign Davis, they’d need to shatter their existing record for largest contract in franchise history (Adam Jones’ six-year, $85.5MM deal). Davis is going to command well over $100MM on the strength of ~45 home runs and a respectable glove, and the O’s have too many needs elsewhere to dedicate most of their resources to plugging one hole.

Adding a reliable arm to the rotation, if not two arms, should be a priority. On the position-player side of the equation, adding a reasonably priced corner outfielder would top my to-do list. Justin Upton and Heyward are too expensive, as is Yoenis Cespedes, but someone like Dexter Fowler would make some sense in Baltimore.

As far as replacing Davis goes, Christian Walker decimated left-handed pitching in Triple-A this season, and adding a platoon partner with a low cost of acquisition (e.g. Logan Morrison, Pedro Alvarez) could be a suitable, if unexciting replacement. Manager Buck Showalter has plenty of familiarity mixing his assets based on matchups.

Kyle Kendrick has been disappointing for the Rockies this year, but will his track record be enough to get him a major-league deal, perhaps in a ballpark where long fly balls stay in the yard?  Or will he be AAA rotation depth for somebody next year? — Allan

Kendrick has a few things going for him in that he’s consistently been able to make 25 starts and soak up 140+ innings per season, plus some clubs might give him the benefit of the doubt due to pitching at Coors Field. If I had to guess right now, though, I’d peg him for a minor league deal with a decent base salary ($2-3MM) and incentives if he makes the team. Better pitchers than Kendrick (e.g. Roberto Hernandez) had to go that route last offseason. I won’t be shocked to see him get a couple million dollars and a guaranteed roster spot, but I’m not going to predict that as an outcome because I’m not sure exactly where he’d find it. Even his road numbers this year are pretty tough to look at.