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MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants have money to spend on a pitching-heavy free agent market. But what else can they do to set up another even-year World Series run?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Jeremy Affeldt, Alejandro De Aza, Tim Hudson, Mike Leake, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong

The 2015 Giants didn’t quite match the World Series run of their predecessors, but that grand finish in 2014 came from an outfit that won only 88 regular season games. This year’s unit took home 84 victories, and was slightly better by measures such as BaseRuns and Pythagorean win-loss.

Importantly, GM Bobby Evans and his staff were able to stay in contention even without having made any large financial commitments before the season. The Giants reportedly tried for, but lost out on, players like Pablo Sandoval, James Shields, and Jon Lester. Instead, the club added older, short-term options: Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo, Nori Aoki, Ryan Vogelsong, and Casey McGehee.

As a result of that relatively quiet offseason a year ago, the Giants now have ample future spending capacity to deploy this winter. The team has a fair amount of cash on the books already for next year (about $120MM, before arb) and 2017 (~$73MM, pre-arb), but little thereafter. And this is an organization that pushed its Opening Day payroll over $170MM last year.

As they begin to utilize that financial flexibility, the Giants will surely look first at the rotation. Beyond the excellent Madison Bumgarner and righties Jake Peavy and Matt Cain, the starting staff is unsettled. Chris Heston is still in the mix after an up-and-down rookie year, and the organization hopes it will be able to turn to some young arms (including Clayton Blackburn, Tyler Beede, Kyle Crick, Ty Blach, and Chris Stratton) in the near future. But that group of pitchers is in need of supplementation. Bringing back Tim Lincecum on a low-risk contract won’t be enough, though he and the solid Yusmeiro Petit could be useful as swingmen. Peavy and Cain have just one and two years, respectively, left on their deals. And it would probably be overly optimistic to expect those upper-minors pitchers all to work out — let alone to do so in the near term.

The Giants will find a free agent market loaded with starting pitching options. Mike Leake, who spent the last several months in San Francisco after a deadline deal, appears to be at the top of the team’s list. He’ll be expensive, though more because he’s young enough to command a lengthy commitment than due to his expected annual salary. If that match-up falls through, Japan’s Kenta Maeda might offer a similar cost and age proposition. Though San Francisco has not been one of the more notably active teams in acquiring MLB-ready talent from Asia, its location on the west coast makes it a plausible destination (at least in theory).

It’s not at all inconceivable, though, that the club could pursue an even higher-end arm, whether or not it gets Leake. Remember, the team reportedly was willing to pay Lester $168MM over seven years. David Price could well be a target, and even if he proves too costly, the market includes a variety of other top-of-the-rotation options. Zack Greinke is the consensus second-best pitcher, and the Giants have previously been connected with Jordan Zimmermann. If San Francisco doesn’t go that route, or if it adds such a pitcher but misses on Leake, there are a variety mid-tier arms (like Ian Kennedy and Yovani Gallardo) as well as a host of bounce-back veterans (such as Doug Fister, Mat Latos, and Kyle Lohse) who could theoretically be considered as well. It’s difficult to prognosticate what direction San Francisco will take — we’ve seen the club pursue high-cost arms and short-term veterans in recent years — but there will be no shortages of possibilities.

San Francisco also could seek to add some depth to its pen, which will lose Jeremy Affeldt to retirement. The bulk of the unit should return, with Romo, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez serving as a veteran core, accompanied by Petit, George Kontos and newer arms like Hunter Strickland and Josh Osich. A veteran pitcher or two — possibly including Lincecum, if he returns but doesn’t crack the rotation in the spring — probably wouldn’t hurt, but there’s not much work to do here.

There’s even less need for repair in the infield, where the Giants thrived in 2015. Matt Duffy made the loss of Sandoval seem like a blessing by putting up nearly five wins at a fraction of the cost. Brandon Crawford (shortstop), Joe Panik (second), Brandon Belt (first), and Buster Posey (catcher) rounded out what might’ve been the best infield in baseball. Then again, Panik dealt with back issues, while Belt had both a concussion and meniscus surgery late in the year, so they’ll need to get back to full health. Meanwhile, Duffy will need to prove that he isn’t a one-year wonder, and Crawford will look to maintain his ascendancy.

The outfield has some questions. While the situation looks straightforward at first glance, it may not be. Hunter Pence is a lock in right, and will hope for better health than he experienced last year. Gregor Blanco has been outstanding in a fourth outfielder role and will be back as well. Then, there’s center field, where Angel Pagan seemingly remains in line for regular duty.

It would be easy enough to say “add a left fielder” and call it a day, but it isn’t quite that simple. For one thing, Pagan had a wreck of a 2015 season and continues to deal with persistent injury issues. While Blanco has spent a good bit of time in center over his career, defensive metrics have always preferred him in the corner — especially the last two seasons. So, there’s an argument to be made that the Giants ought to consider adding a center field-capable player, whether as an upgrade or a platoon mate/back-up plan.

Even if the Giants simply look to add a left fielder, with the idea of continuing to use Blanco as an all-over-the-outfield sub, they face a tough decision on Nori Aoki’s option. That looks like a cheap pick-up, but his concussion issues could be problematic. And there are other options. The Giants hold a $8MM option over deadline acquisition Marlon Byrd. While that seems a bit too expensive, the team has expressed some interest in retaining both Byrd and Alejandro De Aza, who was also added over the summer. All of those players have their merit for San Francisco, but it’s also arguable that the club should look for more impact out of that roster spot. On the other hand, such short-term options hold increased appeal given that corner outfield prospects Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson are now near or at big league readiness.

In terms of targets, it’s really anyone’s guess for the reasons noted above. The market has a number of high-end options (e.g., Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon) and several shorter-term candidates with track records in center (such as Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson). And there is one free agent who might answer several of the team’s needs: Ben Zobrist. While the same can be said of many other clubs, and though the refrain has become tiresome, it nevertheless remains true that he’d offer a regular solution in the corner outfield in addition to providing coverage for the infield, where relative inexperience and injury questions are a factor despite the stellar 2015 performance.

Of course, it’s always possible to upgrade the bench, and that’s arguably more pressing with some injury questions surrounding multiple key regulars. Adding a reserve corner infielder/outfielder who can provide some pop might make sense, depending on how the team proceeds in left field, but the Giants have at least three important pieces covered. In addition to the aforementioned Blanco, 25-year-old Kelby Tomlinson impressed in his rookie year, and could serve a super-utility role.

Then there’s Andrew Susac, a very promising young backstop who could free Posey to spend more time at first. It’s certainly appealing to imagine a scenario where Susac, Posey, and Belt all play significant innings for San Francisco, but that may be hard to work out in practice without a DH — unless Belt spends more time in the outfield. While the current situation probably does not make for a serious roster crunch just yet, particularly as the team may prefer to wait another year to see how everything progresses, Susac could be a major trade piece for San Francisco if they look to add an arm through the trade market.

All said, there may not be a ton of pieces to add for the Giants. But deciding precisely which ones to pursue, and how to re-arrange the team’s in-house options to make that happen, won’t be easy.

Free Agent Profile: Chris Davis

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Two-time home run king Chris Davis hits the free agent market for the first time, prior to his 30th birthday.

Strengths/Pros

Davis is the most prolific home run hitter in the game.  He led the Majors with 47 home runs this year, and also topped all hitters with 53 in 2013.  He has blasted 159 home runs since becoming a regular for the Orioles in 2012, most in baseball.  Looking at isolated power, Davis is second only to Bryce Harper this year and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters since 2012.  A left-handed hitter, Davis’ power carries over against same-side pitching.  From 2012-15, no left-handed hitter with at least 600 plate appearances against southpaws can boast of a higher isolated slugging percentage against lefty pitchers.  Davis’ power also extends to all fields, with some of the game’s best ISO figures on balls hit to center field and the opposite field.

Davis is a bona fide middle of the order monster in his prime.  Among free agents, only Yoenis Cespedes can compete with his power, but Cespedes has a less impressive track record as a hitter.  Davis is also selective at the plate, with a 12.5% walk rate that ranked 13th in baseball this year.

Davis is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman.  He was above average in the SABR Defensive Index this year and in UZR the last two years.  He also has a touch of versatility, in that he logged 253 1/3 innings in right field this year and 149 1/3 at third base in 2014.

Age is on Davis’ side, as he doesn’t turn 30 until March and is five months younger than Cespedes.  Davis has a good health record, as he hasn’t missed more than a week due to injury since missing 12 games with an oblique strain in early 2014.  He played in 160 games in each of the 2013 and ’15 seasons.

Weaknesses/Cons

All that power comes with tons of strikeouts, as you might expect.  Davis topped all of MLB with a 31.0% strikeout rate in 2015, and was also the game’s strikeout king in 2014 at 33.0%.  Strikeouts affect a player’s batting average, and Davis is hitting .256 since 2012.  Among those with at least 500 games played and 100 home runs since 2012, Davis’ batting average ranks 16th out of 19 players.  So sure, power is a tradeoff, but Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz have much higher batting averages (and hence, OBPs) in that time.

With Davis, the biggest elephant in the room is his abysmal 2014 campaign, in which he hit .196/.300/.404 in 525 plate appearances before his season ended with a suspension for his use of Adderall, for which he did not have a therapeutic use exemption.  Davis, who was initially diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in 2008, reportedly had an exemption for Adderall prior to the 2012 season.  Eduardo A. Encina’s report for the Baltimore Sun from last December says it is believed Davis did not have an exemption for 2012 or 2013, years in which he played well.  So at the least, Davis’ struggles in 2014 can’t be chalked up to ADHD medication, and he’s facing an 80-game suspension if he gets popped again.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported in February that Davis received an exemption for a different form of stimulant medicine, Vyvanse, for 2015.

Davis suffered an oblique strain in late April of 2014, which could perhaps be offered as a partial explanation for his struggles that year.  Otherwise, it’s difficult to say why his batting average on balls in play dropped all the way down to .242 that year.  The question a suitor will need to try to answer before locking Davis up is, “Will that happen again?  If so, how soon?”  Looking at some potential comparables, I find more good than bad, such as Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, and even Jason Giambi.  It is possible for Davis to be a good investment over his age 30-35 seasons.

Davis will be subject to a qualifying offer, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.

Personal

Davis was born in Longview, Texas, and resides in Dallas with his wife and daughter in the offseason.  Chris’ nickname is Crush, a play on Kevin Costner’s character Crash Davis in Bull Durham.  ESPN’s Eddie Matz profiled Davis in 2013, revealing a devout southern Baptist with a goofy sense of humor and an affinity for pumping iron.  The article says Davis recommitted to his faith at a down point in his career, after the 2010 season.  After failing to make the Rangers out of Spring Training, Davis told his fiancée he would go to seminary and become a minister or youth pastor if Texas didn’t promote or trade him that year.  Davis did get the call, however, and was later traded to the Orioles with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara.

Market

The Orioles have expressed a desire to re-sign Davis, but I believe they’ll be outbid.  The Astros, Mariners, and Padres are a few speculative fits.  There are scenarios where the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play.  A half-dozen additional teams could be added if you’re willing to stretch.  Still, first base doesn’t seem to be an in-demand position this winter, which goes hand-in-hand with the free agent market presenting few interesting alternatives at the position.  Davis’ competition might be more with Cespedes, at the top end of the big bat market.

Expected Contract

Though no established position player received a six-year contract last winter, two non-superstars received seven-year deals the previous winter: Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo.  Both outfielders are represented by Scott Boras, as is Davis.  Like Davis, Ellsbury and Choo had off-years on their resumes and still reached seven years in free agency.  With Davis, I think it’s a matter of six or seven years.  It’s a close call, but one reason I lean toward six is slugging first base types are generally not thought to age well.  I’m pegging Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.

Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team

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In the last year, five franchise contract records were toppled.  How many will fall this offseason, with nine potential $100MM free agents?  Here’s our list of the largest contracts for each of the 30 teams.  If you’d like a trip down memory lane, each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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After a 98-win season earned them only a one-game playoff exit, the Pirates will give contention another shot next season, but first they’ll have to replace a number of free agents and resolve several key arbitration cases.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

It’s rare that a team posts baseball’s second-best record and doesn’t win its division, but that’s exactly what the Pirates did in 2015, finishing second to the Cardinals before getting bounced by Jake Arrieta and the Cubs in the NL Wild Card game. Their divisional competition will be brutal again next season, and the Bucs will have to recover from several key losses, particularly in their pitching staff. Starter A.J. Burnett and third baseman Aramis Ramirez are retiring, and the team also faces the departures of starter J.A. Happ and capable relievers Antonio Bastardo, Joakim Soria and Joe Blanton. While several of those players were midseason additions to a 2015 team that was already good, they will leave significant holes. Earlier this month at the Pirates blog Bucs Dugout, I outlined some ways the Bucs might address those losses. Here’s a closer look at what they might do.

To start, the Pirates head into the 2015-16 offseason with at least one vacancy in their rotation. Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton will likely all be back. Morton’s 2015 was disappointing, but his 2016 salary is guaranteed, and his peripheral numbers and ground-ball-inducing ways suggest that he ought to be at least a decent back-of-the-rotation pitcher who should improve on his 4.81 2015 ERA.

The Pirates face a decision, though, with Jeff Locke, who figures to make $3.5MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. In a vacuum, Locke is worth the money, but he’s a low-upside nibbler who’s valuable mostly only because he’s capable of pitching 150 reasonable innings. As a team with championship aspirations, the Pirates will have to decide how many innings they want Morton and Locke to pitch. Beginning the season with one of them in their rotation might be reasonable; two, however, might not be, particularly when jettisoning one would open a spot for a reclamation project of the type from whom the Pirates have gotten such good work in recent years.

The Bucs could non-tender Locke or trade him this offseason, or they could keep him and replace him with top prospect Tyler Glasnow after the Super Two threshold passes in June. Jameson Taillon, who’s recovering from injury, could also be a possibility at some point. They could, of course, also just promote Glasnow to start the season, although that seems unlikely. Historically, they’ve waited to promote nearly-ready prospects like Cole and Gregory Polanco until mid-June, and after 41 innings at Triple-A Indianapolis in which Glasnow racked up strikeouts but wasn’t consistent, the Pirates could reasonably claim he could use the extra couple months in the minors.

USATSI_8833793_154513410_lowresEither way, the Bucs will be in the market for at least one starting pitcher this offseason. One obvious potential target is Happ, who was brilliant after the Pirates acquired him in a low-profile deadline trade. The Pirates have gotten plenty of out-of-nowhere performances from veterans in the last few seasons, but Happ’s performance down the stretch was surprising even with that in mind. He and his suddenly outstanding fastball produced a 1.85 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings.

Now 33, Happ could land a contract he might have only dreamed about three months ago, and one could hardly blame him for exploring the market. But playing in Pittsburgh, where he can continue to work with highly regarded pitching coach Ray Searage, might give him the best chance at maintaining his success. A two-year deal at about $9MM-$12MM per season might work and should be within the Pirates’ price range, although Happ’s market is difficult to gauge — much will depend on how much of his late-2015 success teams believe he can retain. It’s possible he could receive three-year offers.

If Happ goes elsewhere, the Bucs could potentially pursue a mid-market upgrade like Brett Anderson, whose 66.3% ground ball rate would fit well on a Pirates staff that has led the Majors in ground-ball percentage in each of the last three seasons. A buy-low pitcher with ground ball tendencies, like Doug Fister or Mike Pelfrey, might also make sense as a short-term addition. The Bucs could perhaps also pursue someone like Jeff Samardzija in the somewhat unlikely event that a lack of interest elsewhere induces him to take a one-year deal.

First base will also be on the Pirates’ agenda. The team will likely have Michael Morse to man the right-handed side of a platoon at that position, but they might decide they need to find a new lefty to take the bulk of the at-bats. Pedro Alvarez played first in 2015 and hit 27 home runs, but his defense can only be described as embarrassing, and he seems ticketed for a bench/DH role in the American League. The Bucs could non-tender him, or they could tender him and attempt to deal him if they feel he has trade value despite his projected $8.1MM salary.

If Alvarez does depart, the long-term replacement for both him and Morse will likely be top prospect Josh Bell. Bell, though, only has 145 career plate appearances at Triple-A, and as with Glasnow, the Bucs would likely prefer to get him past the Super Two threshold before promoting him. Bell’s presence in the organization could, however, prevent the Bucs from signing a long-term first base solution like Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park, and it would be incredibly out of character for them to sign a premium free agent like Chris Davis. The list of free agents at first base is bleak after those two. A trade acquisition for a lefty like like Adam Lind, or a reunion with 2013 Pirate Justin Morneau, could make sense at the right price.

At a projected $10.7MM, second baseman Neil Walker will be expensive in his last year before free agency eligibility, but the Pirates’ decision to tender him a contract should be a relatively easy one. That said, Walker is below average defensively and doesn’t seem long for second base, so one solution to the Pirates’ first base issues might be to use Walker at first against righties, then bump him back to second as needed when Bell arrives. The Bucs could then use Josh Harrison at second and Jung-Ho Kang at third. Overall, that infield defensive alignment would be significantly better than it was last year. That plan seems unlikely, however, given that Kang might not be ready for the start of the season after a nasty knee injury in September, and GM Neal Huntington recently said on 93-7 The Fan in Pittsburgh that he wasn’t sure it was fair to Walker to have to change positions right before heading into free agency.

The Pirates will also face tricky decisions in their bullpen. Like Walker, closer Mark Melancon will be expensive in arbitration and is in his last year before free agency eligibility, but also like Walker, he’s too good not to tender. It wouldn’t be surprising, however, if the Bucs explored the possibility of trading him. Such a move would be unpopular in Pittsburgh, but it’s possible moving Tony Watson to the closer’s role and spending elsewhere in the bullpen would be a better use of resources, especially since Melancon, despite his 51 saves, declined in most key statistical indicators in 2015. If they do deal Melancon, it wouldn’t be surprising if they received some underappreciated bullpen arm as part of the return. Acquiring more rotation depth might also make sense.

Whatever happens with Melancon, the Pirates will need relief help, but predicting what they’ll do in that area is close to impossible. The Bucs acquired Bastardo via a fairly conventional trade last offseason, but they’ve found other relievers they’ve used in the past couple years, like Arquimedes Caminero, Radhames Liz and John Holdzkom, on baseball’s fringes. It does, at least, seem likely that the Pirates will attempt to add a lefty, but it remains to be seen whether they will re-sign Bastardo, sign a different veteran, or acquire someone we’ve hardly considered. The Pirates have reportedly also shown interest in Korean reliever Seung-Hwan Oh, who likely wouldn’t be an immediate candidate to close but could help elsewhere in the bullpen.

On the bench, Chris Stewart appears likely to return as the Bucs’ backup catcher after a strong season, and the Bucs also have another potentially useful bench piece in speedy outfielder Keon Broxton. They typically add a veteran bench player or two each season, though, and it’s unlikely next year will be an exception. The team will need a replacement for Sean Rodriguez, who hit lightly but appeared in 139 games for the Bucs in 2015, most of them at first base or in the outfield. Infield depth will also likely be a priority, given Kang’s injury.

For a team that’s made three straight playoff appearances, that’s a lot of decisions on the horizon, particularly as arbitration salaries force the Pirates’ payroll upwards. Assuming the Bucs tender Walker, Melancon and Locke, they’ll already have over $85MM on the books, approaching last season’s Opening Day total. The Pirates will likely complete their roster by finding more buy-low veterans this winter, hoping their coaching staff can continue to work wonders, especially with pitchers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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A disappointing 2015 season led to a mini fire sale that sent David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria to new teams in July as well as the eventual dismissal of GM Dave Dombrowski. With longtime Dombrowski lieutenant Al Avila now atop the baseball operations pyramid, the Tigers will again act as buyers this winter in hopes of returning to the top of the AL Central.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Free Agents

Contract Options

Other Financial Commitments

  • Prince Fielder: $6MM (paid to Rangers as part of the 2013 Kinsler/Fielder trade)

For a team with a lot of holes to fill and a potentially expensive arbitration class, the Tigers have a huge amount committed to the 2016 payroll already. Detroit has nearly $111MM committed to just the five players listed above, and that number will rise into the upper-$120MMs simply tendering contracts to the arbitration eligible players above (excluding Neftali Feliz and Josh Wilson, who are near locks to be cut loose) and rounding out the roster with league-minimum players.

The good news for Tigers fans is that the team has averaged about $155MM on their Opening Day payrolls over the past four seasons, and owner Mike Ilitch seems likely to authorize his newly minted general manager to spend aggressively in order to build a contender.

The Tigers’ biggest need is on the pitching staff — both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Last winter’s trades to acquire Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon paid little dividends, and now neither can be definitively penciled into the 2016 picture. Simon is a free agent, while Greene’s season was cut short by a nerve injury. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez are the two Opening Day locks, and I’d expect that left-hander Daniel Norris, the key piece acquired in the David Price trade with Toronto, will be included as well (presuming his surgery to remove a malignant growth from his thyroid goes smoothly. Best wishes to Daniel in his fight against cancer.). Other options for the Tigers include Matt Boyd (who was also acquired in the Price deal but struggled considerably in the Majors), Kyle Lobstein, Buck Farmer, Kyle Ryan and Drew VerHagen. While they have a fairly sizable quantity of arms, the quality of said group leaves something to be desired.

As such, it’s not a surprise to hear GM Al Avila state the goal of adding two starting pitchers this winter. Verlander’s resurgence over the final few months might lessen the need for a front-of-the-rotation arm, and re-signing Price would cloud their long-term payroll outlook anyway. The Tigers are already paying Miguel Cabrera and Verlander a combined $58MM in 2019, and adding Price would seemingly lock them in to a pair of $30MM+ salaries (Cabrera and Price) through the 2022 season. Their pockets are deep, but from a roster construction standpoint, that type of handcuffing so far down the line makes a six- or seven-year commitment to a pitcher that will be in decline for the final few years far too risky.

Rather, second-tier arms could be the preferred route for Detroit. Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy and Scott Kazmir have all been mentioned as possibilities, and any of the bunch would add some much-needed stability to a murky rotation picture. Ilitch is no stranger to dealing with Scott Boras, so perhaps we should include Wei-Yin Chen as a possibility to slot into the middle of the Detroit rotation as well.

If the aim is to suppress the length of commitment to a rotation addition, older-but-solid veterans such as John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma make sense on two- or three-year pacts. A one-year reunion with Doug Fister could make sense for both parties if Fister’s preferred option is to sign a short-term deal to rebuild his depleted free agent value. Failing those options, trades for 2016-17 free agents C.J. Wilson or Andrew Cashner could theoretically be reached.

Over the years, the bullpen has been Detroit’s Achilles heel, particularly in the postseason. Former GM Dave Dombrowski gets a bad rap for the team’s bullpen woes, though he frequently sought to improve the relief corps by signing Joaquin Benoit and Joe Nathan in addition to trading for Joakim Soria and Jose Veras (to name just a few moves). In the end, the Tigers have wound up with shaky relievers and wilted at various stages of their recent playoff runs. The lone holdovers from previous years that will be locks for next year’s bullpen include Alex Wilson and Al Alburquerque. Bruce Rondon should factor into the mix as well, but he was sent home from the team in rather embarrassing fashion, with the Tigers citing his “effort level” as a reason for the decision. It remains to be seen how he’ll bounce back from that. It’s possible the decision fractured the relationship between player and team, but it’s equally plausible that the drastic maneuver will serve as a wakeup call for the flamethrowing young righty.

The free-agent market this year offers a deep crop of setup men from which to draw. Darren O’Day stands out as the top arm on the market, and the Tigers will no doubt be linked to him in the weeks and months to come. Right-hander Shawn Kelley quietly had a dominant season in San Diego, as his ERA finally lined up with his excellent peripherals. Ryan Madson had a brilliant comeback campaign, and Soria will, of course, be a free agent this winter. The Tigers need lefty help as well, making both Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp (each of whom handles both lefties and righties well) attractive targets on two-year deals.

On the trade front, Avila could line up with frequent Tigers trading partner Mike Rizzo of the Nationals. It’s been widely speculated that Drew Storen, who did not take kindly to the team’s acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could be dealt this winter. He’d be a one-year rental, as he’ll hit the open market after earning a projected $8.8MM next year. But, Storen has a track record of quality performance, even if many remember him for a pair of disappointing postseason appearances.

A second option with the Nationals could be to take on Papelbon himself. While that could undoubtedly present problems within the clubhouse, Papelbon has a solid season split between the Phillies and Nationals, and Washington would most likely be willing to eat part of his $11MM salary to facilitate a trade in the aftermath of his confrontation with Bryce Harper.

One more expensive bullpen trade candidate could be Mark Melancon, who has enjoyed a dominant run with the Pirates. That success, though, has Melancon’s projected arbitration salary at $10MM, which may be too steep for the cost-conscious Pirates. A trade with Pittsburgh would need to bring more than the salary dump type of deal that sent fellow $10MM closer Jim Johnson from Baltimore to Oakland in the 2013-14 offseason, but Melancon’s value will fall in somewhere south of fellow NL Central stopper Aroldis Chapman. The Reds and Padres could represent theoretical trade partners, but the value of Chapman and Craig Kimbrel is exceptionally high, and the Tigers may not want to part with the necessary prospects to land either elite closer.

With the infield mostly set, a young catcher with starting upside in the form of James McCann (Alex Avila is expected to land elsewhere as a free agent), Victor Martinez penciled in at DH and right field locked down with J.D. Martinez, the team’s biggest need on the position player side is an outfielder. Anthony Gose can handle a good chunk of the center field duties, though he’d require a platoon partner. That could mean a reunion with Rajai Davis — perhaps on a two-year deal similar to the previous one he signed in Detroit — or a lower-key acquisition such as Drew Stubbs. One can also envision a return for Austin Jackson, whose best seasons came in Detroit, though he’d require a larger commitment and may push Gose over to left field.

While the Tigers have Steven Moya and Tyler Collins as in-house options in left, Collins looked like a platoon option at best, while Moya struggled in the Majors and at the Triple-A level. For a team with significant payroll capacity and high 2016 expectations, the best course of action would seem to be giving Moya additional time at the Triple-A level and utilizing Collins as a bench piece. Top-tier names like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Jason Heyward (who would force Martinez to left field) are plausible, though with pitching being a greater priority, they may be deemed too expensive. If that’s the case, second-tier outfield options like Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus make some sense. That’s not to say either will be cheap relative to the rest of the market, just more affordable than the top echelon of free-agent outfielders.

The other big issue for the Tigers this winter will be whether or not they’re able to agree to a long-term deal with J.D. Martinez. The two sides are said to have mutual interest in an extension, but Martinez only has two years of club control left, and thus, isn’t too far removed from free agency. With a projected arbitration salary of $7.8MM and a $3MM salary from 2015 already under his belt, Martinez has already obtained some financial security, so there’s reason for him to simply elect to play out his final two years and hit the open market heading into what would be his age-30 season. If he can maintain anything close to his 2014-15 form, he’d be one of the hottest free agents on the market in two winters — perhaps on the receiving end of a $150MM+ guarantee. Knowing that, Detroit isn’t likely to be able to land him at a hugely discounted rate.

There aren’t many comparables when looking for hitters that signed extensions with between four and five years of service under their belts. Adam Jones is one such case, though his six-year, $85.5MM extension with Baltimore is now three years old, and it was a midseason extension that bought out one arb year and five free-agent seasons. Martinez’s projected second-year arb price of $7.8MM handily tops Jones’ $6.15MM mark, and the market, of course, has taken a huge step forward since May 2012. (Jones’ deal, at the time, was the second-largest contract for a center fielder, clearly illustrating how things have changed.) I’d wager that Martinez’s remaining arb years could be valued at around $21MM, so perhaps a six-year deal that pays him $20-22MM per free-agent year would get talks going. That would put the rough guess for an extension at $100-110MM over six years — an unfathomable sum for Martinez just 18 months ago but one that would be worthwhile if he’s able to maintain his current level of production.

In each of the past two offseasons, the Tigers sought to get their hands on a young, controllable rotation piece that could be slotted into the starting five for the foreseeable future without further bogging down the crowded future payroll. That resulted in disappointing returns from both Robbie Ray and Shane Greene, and it subsequently contributed to the team’s disappointing 2015 campaign. Somewhat ironically, Dombrowski may have finally gotten his man in the form of Norris, but the decision to rebuild may ultimately have cost him his job.

Because of that, it seems likely that Avila will take a more aggressive approach to spending on the pitching staff in his first offseason as GM. While I find a pursuit of Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto too drastic a measure, I’d imagine we’ll see the Tigers mentioned in connection with those names before ultimately landing a pair of mid-rotation arms and multiple relievers. And, given the productive names that proliferate the club’s depth chart on the position-player side of the equation, the Tigers’ return to contention in the AL Central might not take more than a single offseason.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees could have a bit of room to add another big contract this winter, though a greater need may be finding young depth to bolster its veteran core.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

In many ways, 2015 was a successful year for the Yankees.  They returned to the postseason (albeit for just one game, losing to the Astros in a wild card matchup), got some solid contributions from building-block younger players and received several bounce-back seasons from their expensive veterans.  While anything short of a World Series championship is generally considered a disappointment in New York, the Yankees at least made some positive strides.

The trick for GM Brian Cashman, however, is figuring out how exactly to add major upgrades to a roster that has over $180MM committed to just 10 players.  There’s a light at the end of the guaranteed-salary since at least $37.5MM (Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran) will be freed up after 2016, plus Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia (a combined $45MM) will be off the books after 2017.  The Yankees don’t seem likely to go on another free agent spending spree, but with some financial relief in sight, it doesn’t seem out of the question for them to make one or two major free agent signings on backloaded contracts.  It may make more sense for New York to strike in free agency now rather than next winter, when the projected open market doesn’t look nearly as deep in talent, particularly in frontline pitching.

Starting pitching indeed stands out as an area of focus, and free agent righty Jeff Samardzija has already been cited as a Yankee target this offseason.  Samardzija would cost less than pursuing one of the top-tier arms in this winter’s free agent pitching market, though the lower price tag is due to Samardzija’s lackluster 2015 season.  He posted a 4.96 ERA over 214 innings with the White Sox, and while ERA predictors were a bit more kind to his performance (Chicago’s bad defense certainly played a role), Samardzija also suffered drops in his strikeout and grounder rates.  It should be noted, though, that the Yankees weren’t interested in signing free agents that required draft pick forfeiture, and Samardzija reportedly will receive and reject a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the White Sox.

Acquiring a new starter would require the Yankees to bump a current rotation member.  The 2016 rotation projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda and Sabathia, with Ivan Nova and Adam Warren on hand as depth.  Sabathia recently entered an alcohol rehabilitation program, adding a far more pressing personal concern to his 2016 status beyond just his knee injuries and declining performance.  Sabathia has only made one relief appearance in his 15-year career (during the 2011 playoffs) and he still ate 167 1/3 innings last season, yet as strange as it would be to see him coming out of the bullpen, he’s the most logical candidate to leave the rotation.  Tanaka and Severino obviously aren’t going anywhere, and trading promising young starters like Eovaldi and Pineda (whose ERA indicators show he drastically outperformed his 4.37 ERA) would be an odd move for a club that claims to want to get younger.

It’s hard to see where a major new salary could be fit around the diamond since that’s where most of the Yankees’ payroll commitments can be found.  Aside from shortstop Didi Gregorius and the unsettled second base situation, every other position is filled by a veteran with an eight-figure salary, the youngest of whom (Chase Headley) is entering his age-32 season.  The Yankees enjoyed several bounce-back seasons from many of these older stars in 2015 but even those came with some caveats; Teixeira missed the last six weeks with a shin fracture and Rodriguez hit only .191/.300/.377 in 213 PA after Aug. 1.

Combine those with down years from Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and a team-wide lackluster defense (24th in team UZR/150, 27th in team Defensive Runs Saved), and you have to question if the Yankees can realistically expect to catch lightning in a bottle again and contend with this aging lineup.  Manager Joe Girardi was already pretty liberal with off-days for many of his veterans last year, and the same can probably be expected in 2016 now that the manager has a few more young reinforcements to be called upon.

Greg Bird and John Ryan Murphy lead the way in this regard, as the rookie first baseman and third-year backup catcher both had strong seasons, particularly Bird stepping in to deliver big numbers after Teixeira was lost to the DL.  There has been some speculation that Bird could be tried out at third base or right field so he could get regular time spelling Teixeira, Headley and Beltran, though it remains to be see how Bird could adjust to playing two new positions for the first time in his pro career.  Murphy could also see some time at first base, though it’s probably more likely that he could get more time behind the plate spelling Brian McCann (who would either rest on those days or play first himself).  More at-bats for Murphy would also get a right-handed bat into the lineup on a more regular basis, which would help a Yankees offense that struggled badly against southpaws.

Chris Young was a valuable weapon against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .972 OPS in 175 PA against southpaws en route to an overall very solid .252/.320/.453 slash line and 14 homers in 356 PA.  Young and his new representation will be looking for a multi-year contract and a job that offers more regular playing time, though I’d expect the Yankees will explore keeping a lefty-masher who can play both corner outfield spots and handle the occasional fill-in game or two in center.  If Young signs elsewhere, the Bombers will be in the market for another versatile backup outfielder.

Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela were the two young second base candidates rumored to be in for long looks in 2015, though Stephen Drew ended up seeing most of the at-bats at the keystone.  It’s unlikely that Drew returns in the wake of his rough season, so the Yankees could go with a platoon of left-handed hitting Dustin Ackley and either Refsnyder or Pirela (both righty batters) at second next season.  Ideally, the Yankees would probably prefer to have Refsnyder or Pirela win the job outright in Spring Training as Ackley has only played in 10 games at second over the last two years.

Could New York look for a more permanent answer at second base?  Names like Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist stand out as the most promising options on the free agent market.  Murphy and Zobrist, in particular, could fill depth needs as Murphy can also play third and Zobrist can play short and left.  Neither are defensive standouts, though, as Zobrist’s usually-solid defensive metrics took a plunge in 2015; signing Zobrist in particular would mean the Yankees would commit another big contract to another mid-30’s player.

Signing an everyday second baseman would allow the Yankees to package Refsnyder as part of a trade, as he could be a young talent the club would be willing to part with if rumors of attitude issues are true (Cashman has denied these rumors, for the record).  The Yankees have become much more wary about trading top prospects for established stars over the last few years, so you’re more apt to see the likes of Aaron Judge, Eric Jagielo or Jacob Lindgren in the pinstripes next season than another Major League uniform.

The bullpen was rebuilt last winter with good results, as Yankees relievers led the league in K/9 (10.11) and ranked third in fWAR (5.2).  Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson should again be a very tough late-game trio for opponents to overcome, and if another starter is acquired, adding Warren or Nova as a full-time reliever would further strengthen the pen.  Warren and Nova could also be trade chips; Nova’s stock isn’t high after a tough 2015 campaign, but it was his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

While the relief corps was already a strength, the Yankees also explored adding elite bullpen arms like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman at the trade deadline.  If the Yankees make another attempt at creating a super-bullpen, perhaps they could offer Major League pieces rather than prospects.  This is entirely speculation on my part, but maybe the Padres be interested in adding a needed left-handed bat and outfield defense in the form of Gardner (plus a prospect or two) for Kimbrel.

Since Ellsbury may be untradeable at this point due to his big contract and disappointing season, moving Gardner or Beltran would open up a corner outfield spot.  This could open the door for a big signing, and Mike Axisa of the River Ave. Blues blog recently opined that Jason Heyward would be an ideal fit, even without the Yankees making room by trading someone else.  Heyward would play every day and then Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran would be rotated (or, Beltran would DH on days that A-Rod sits), which would be a uniquely big-market way of solving a fourth outfielder problem if Young doesn’t re-sign.  The juggling of playing time would only be an issue for 2016 since Beltran’s contract is up next winter, or it might not end up being an issue at all if someone gets injured, as Axisa notes.

Heyward is only 26, is one of the game’s elite defensive outfielders, and he’ll command the kind of massive long-term contract that only the Yankees and a handful of other big-market teams can afford.  He’s also a player that New York targeted last offseason in trade talks when Heyward was still with the Braves, so the interest is there.  The Yankees, as usual, will be linked in rumors to just about every notable free agent name, though in Heyward’s case, there could be some legitimate substance to the whispers.  Adding Heyward would bring both youth and elite talent to the Bombers in one fell swoop.

On the surface, Cashman doesn’t appear to have a ton of maneuverability given that his club is still a year away from finally starting to shed some of its major salary commitments.  Last winter, however, Cashman was very active on the trade market and came away with such important pieces as Gregorius, Eovaldi and Wilson.  If he can expand on that creativity and manage to unload one of his big contracts, it could unlock several new offseason possibilities.

Extension Candidate: Shelby Miller

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Signing young players to extensions has been the backbone of John Hart’s long career as a baseball executive.  Since taking over the Braves last year, Hart has primarily focused on acquiring new young talent for the rebuilding club rather than locking up existing players. Now that some new pieces are in place, though, Hart and GM John Coppolella will surely look into extending some players that project to be part of the next Braves winning team.

Shelby Miller may well be at the front of that list, as the right-hander is coming off a very solid (albeit unusual) 2015 season.  Miller posted a 3.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB rate in his first year in Atlanta, tossing a career-high 205 1/3 innings and reaching his first All-Star team.  Unfortunately for Miller, these numbers didn’t translate into many wins since he received a near-record low amount of run support (2.64 runs per game) from the anemic Braves offense.  This lack of support culminated in an astounding 24-start winless stretch that saw Miller go 0-16 despite a solid 3.83 ERA over that stretch.

While “baseball card stats” are a big part of the arbitration process, Miller’s rough 6-17 record shouldn’t hurt him too much as he enters his first year of eligibility this offseason.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Miller will earn a healthy $4.9MM salary in 2016, and the Braves could look to get some cost certainty over Miller’s two arb years and possibly even a free agent year or two.

"<strongA note about that $4.9MM figure: it would actually set a new record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility, topping Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM figure from 2006.  Last year, Matt Swartz wrote about how that $4.35MM record has somewhat unexpectedly stood the test of time, though MLBTR’s projections have three pitchers beating the mark this winter — Matt Harvey at $4.7MM, Miller at $4.9MM and Dallas Keuchel at $6.4MM.

As we see from the MLBTR Extension Tracker, four starters with 3+ years of service time have signed extensions since the end of the 2012 season.  (I feel comfortable cutting it off there since Kyle Kendrick and Clayton Kershaw aren’t ideal comparables as, respectively, a Super Two player and a reigning Cy Young Award winner.)  Let’s see how Miller compares to these four pitchers using extension size, their MLBTR arbitration projection, notable stats and ERA predictors…

Mat Latos:  Two years/$11.5MM before age-25 season, $4.6MM arbitration projection.  639 IP, 3.41 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 43.7% ground ball rate, 11.5 fWAR (3.47 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA)

Wade Miley: Three years/$19.25MM (with $12MM option for 2018) before age-28 season, $4.3MM projection.  638 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 48.6% ground ball rate, 7.4 fWAR (3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA)

Lance Lynn: Three years/$22MM before age-28 season, $5.4MM projection but it was an unusual situation, as noted earlier in Matt Swartz’s piece.  616 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.75 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 44.4% ground ball rate, 10.5 fWAR (3.34 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA)

Miller: Heading into age-25 season, $4.9MM projection.  575 1/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 42.3% ground ball rate, 6.9 fWAR (3.82 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA)

Jhoulys Chacin: Two years/$6.5MM before age-25 season, $1.6MM projection.  411 1/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 49.7% ground ball rate, 5.0 fWAR (4.17 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA)

Miller just turned 25 last week, putting him in the Latos/Chacin age bracket.  Miller is clearly a step behind Latos and Lynn WAR-wise (they have an edge in strikeouts and innings) and you can make a case that Miley was also a better pitcher than Miller at this stage of both pitchers’ careers.

Since Miller is three years younger than Lynn and Miley were at the time of their extensions, however, his ultimate price tag is going to be bigger.  If he keeps up his current form through his arbitration years, hitting the open market as a durable and productive 28-year-old arm could mean something in the range of five (or even six) years in the $85MM range.

With this in mind, would Miller even be interested in an extension?  He already banked one nice payday when he signed for a $2.875MM bonus with the Cardinals after being drafted in 2009, and he’ll earn something in that $4.9MM range next year.  Miller is on pace to get healthy raises in his final two arbitration years anyway, so he could very well decide to bet on himself with an eye towards free agency and avoid a long-term commitment.  If the CAA client betters his current form and makes the leap from very good pitcher to full-blown ace, Miller would be costing himself some money by locking himself into an extension now.

The Braves would have to make it worth Miller’s while, therefore, for him to sign away one or two of his free agent years.  A straight club option for 2019 likely wouldn’t be enough unless it had an easily-reachable vesting option.  Corey Kluber’s extension with the Indians could be a model in this regard.  The two club option years that cover what would’ve been Kluber’s first two free agent seasons can rise in value by up to $4MM based on performance escalators, turning a potential extra $27.5MM for Kluber into as much as $35.5MM over those two seasons.

Lynn’s extension paid him $7MM in 2015 and he’s owed $7.5MM in each of the next two years, while Miley’s deal escalated from $4MM last season to $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017.  If we mark Miller for $4.9MM this season, it would make sense for Atlanta to boost his salary in 2016-17 once Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are (in all likelihood) fully off the books.  So at something like $4.9MM in 2016, $7.4MM in 2017 and $9.5MM in 2018, that gets Miler to $21.8MM over three years.  If there’s a 2019 club option, I would guess it would have to be in the $13MM range and, like Kluber’s contract, subject to rise via escalator bonuses.

Unlike Keuchel and Harvey (his fellow would-be arbitration record-breakers), Miller hasn’t quite shown that he’s a frontline ace.  Don’t forget, however, that Miller is just a few years removed from being a consensus top-10 prospect, so it’s very possible that his best is yet to come.  Even at Miller’s current level of production, a four-year deal that could max out in the $38-$39MM ballpark isn’t a bad price to pay for a 25-year-old who’s averaged 187 innings a year since 2013.  It could end up being yet another canny John Hart extension if and when the Braves begin to turn things around.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies shipped out mega-star Troy Tulowitzki this summer in the midst of another miserable campaign. Does his departure portend more changes to the big league roster?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

By and large, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has maneuvered subtly since taking the helm just over a year ago. His transactional history shows a variety of fairly minor moves — with one glaring exception. This summer, of course, Bridich manufactured a stunning trade this summer that sent franchise icon Troy Tulowitzki (and veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins) to the Blue Jays in exchange for Jose Reyes and a trio of intriguing pitching prospects. That move not only signaled that Colorado was willing to embrace change, but set the course for the current offseason.

Colorado’s prior two winters featured efforts to re-work the cast surrounding Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez while carefully managing payroll. Before 2014, the club dealt for Brett Anderson and Drew Stubbs while extending Jorge De La Rosa, signing Justin Morneau and Boone Logan, but also dealing away Dexter Fowler for cheaper MLB assets. Last year involved the addition of Kyle Kendrick, Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso, and John Axford via free agency and the shedding of pitchers Brett Anderson, Juan Nicasio, and Jhoulys Chacin. While the organization set consecutive Opening Day payroll records ($93.5MM, $97MM) in the process, the results were the same.

That seems unlikely to be repeated in the coming months. It’s not clear how much cash the club intends to dedicate to player salaries, but it would be surprising to see another group of veteran acquisitions with intentions of remaining competitive. Instead, this time around, the smart money seems to be on a continued — albeit cautious — conversion of veteran assets into younger, cheaper pieces.

Bridich played a nifty hand last fall, netting the club a draft pick by making a qualifying offer to Michael Cuddyer. He might’ve hoped to do the same with Justin Morneau, but injuries derailed that possibility. Adding young talent will have to come the old-fashioned way, via trade. So, what are the team’s options?

With Tulo now in Toronto, the attention turns to his former co-star CarGo. It probably won’t be as hard for the club to part with the latter having already moved the former, though Bridich has made clear he has no intentions of selling low. There’s a lot of cash left to go in the final two years of Gonzalez’s contract, but it’s still a much smaller commitment in terms of years and annual salary than the winter’s best free agent outfielders will command. And while the persistent injuries limit his value, Gonzalez did play a career-high 153 games and post a dramatic second-half turnaround (142 wRC+). All said, this may be the high water mark in his trade value.

Moving CarGo is the likeliest route to adding young arms to the stable. Bridich obviously feels good about the youthful pitching he’s already brought in, as he explained in his recent appearance on the MLBTR Podcast, and this approach could allow him to target more young pitching talent of the kind he believes can thrive under the organization’s unique circumstances.

Moreover, Colorado is also very well situated to fill in for the hypothetical loss of the veteran. 2014 was a lost season for Corey Dickerson, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be penciled in for an everyday role. And Charlie Blackmon showed that he can be relied upon as an average regular. Though defensive metrics seem to prefer him in a corner spot, Blackmon can handle center. Dealing the veteran Gonzalez, then, would create an opening (on the roster and in terms of payroll) for the team to add a bounceback free agent looking for playing time and the chance to hit at altitude. The market has several possibilities, including center field capable players like Austin Jackson, who could keep a seat warm for top outfield prospect David Dahl. Such a player could, in turn, be flipped for yet more prospects depending upon how things shake out — making for a possible double dip of sorts.

Regardless of what the team (if anything) does with Gonzalez, there’s Jose Reyes to consider. The organization might’ve hoped that the thin air would do the 32-year-old Reyes some good, but the early returns weren’t positive. He hit just .259/.291/.368, was caught in four of twelve stolen base attempts, and continued to put up uninspired defensive marks. There would surely be some teams with interest in rostering him, but will any give up young talent or take on a lot of salary to do so? While Colorado could ship out Reyes and hand the reins to Christian Adames and/or Trevor Story, the club might prefer to see if the veteran can rebuild some value over the first half before doing so.

It’s not clear that there is a ton to be gained from dealing from other parts of the roster. Players such as Blackmon, emerging star third baseman Nolan Arenado, and solid second bagger DJ LeMahieu all have real value, of course, but there’s little impetus to trade them. Colorado would surely be willing to part with underwhelming and now-arb-eligible players such as Wilin Rosario and Brandon Barnes, but they are just as likely to end up being non-tendered or kept in reserve roles.

That brings us to two positions of most uncertainty: catcher and first base. Behind the dish, the 32-year-old Nick Hundley turned in a sturdy campaign and is under contract for another season. With Michael McKenry cut loose, the Rockies will presumably give a chance to Tom Murphy, who performed well in a short MLB stint last year. Dustin Garneau provides yet another, younger option. But defense is a concern. Hundley has rated well overall behind the dish, but is charged with some of the worst framing numbers in the league. And Murphy is known as a bat-first backstop. As Colorado increasingly transitions young arms into the hostile environment of Coors Field, there’s good reason to wonder if a more highly-regarded defender needs to be found.

First base, too, is a spot that the club can cover internally. It all starts with a decision on Morneau, who has been a solid performer when healthy but just missed most of the 2015 season with rather scary head and neck issues. His mutual option will cost $9MM (against a $750K buyout). That’s hardly an unimaginable price, but the 34-year-old comes with an awful lot of risk given that he’d occupy nearly one-tenth of the club’s payroll. If he isn’t dealt or non-tendered, with the latter perhaps being likely, Rosario could look to rebound while continuing to learn to field on the infield dirt. He’d make for a natural platoon partner with the left-handed-hitting Ben Paulsen, though that doesn’t make for the most exciting situation.

Those possibilities at catcher and first are certainly reasonable enough, so there’s no urgency to act here. But the Rockies could look to act boldly in free agency, if they are so inclined, at those positions. The organization has reportedly had interest in players like Brian McCann and Russell Martin behind the dish and Jose Abreu at first in recent years, and there are some interesting possibilities available this winter. The 2015-16 free agent pool includes a quality defensive backstop with some upside at the plate in Matt Wieters, and one can’t help but be intrigued by what he could do in the power department at altitude. (And Hundley could probably draw a decent trade return from catching-needy team.) With his cost held down by injury issues, it might be an opportune time to pounce. Likewise, at first, KBO sensation Byung-ho Park may be posted this year, and might make for an Abreu-like signing (even if expectations of Abreu-like results are unwise). Otherwise, the Rox would be a highly appealing landing spot for any number of sluggers in need of a place to re-launch, with both first base and the corner outfield potentially open to accommodate the acquisition of possible summer trade chips.

Time, then, to move on to the pitching staff. You might’ve thought that this discussion should start here, as Colorado continues to struggle to keep runs off of the board. No doubt there’s an immense amount of work to be done, as Bridich signaled in parting with Tulowitzki for the right to three high-upside young pitchers.

Despite the need for improved pitching, though, it isn’t immediately clear that there is much for the Rockies to do — other than trying to work deals, as discussed above — in addressing this area in the hot stove season. It’s hardly novel to observe that the team struggles to draw free agent pitching. Its most recent open-market pitching signings, starter Kyle Kendrick and reliever Boone Logan, have been distinct failures. That’s not to say that Colorado should shy away from that approach entirely, but it needs to be targeted when it does.

Looking at the rotation, as things stand, the Rockies don’t hold much promise for a quality outfit in the near-term. But they also don’t seem much in need of another overpay just to add an arm. Jorge De La Rosa will be back for one more go. It isn’t possible to go back in time and trade him during the 2013 season, and he’s not that valuable a commodity at $12MM, so keeping him for sake of stability (with a possible deadline flip in mind) is probably the best route at this point. Chad Bettis had a solid 115-inning run, with ERA estimators pegging his 4.23 earned run mark as slightly unlucky, and has probably done enough to warrant a presumption of a slot. Righty Tyler Chatwood will be making his way back from Tommy John, with the club looking to make good on the two-year arb deal it gave him last winter. Jordan Lyles has been serviceable, should be healed from a toe injury, and will play all of 2016 at 25 years of age.

And that’s all before getting to the more exciting group of younger arms coming up through the system. True, Tyler Matzek and Eddie Butler had more or less disastrous seasons, but both (especially the latter) still hold some promise and deserve opportunities. The highly-regarded Jonathan Gray actually showed quite a bit of promise when you look past the unsightly ERA from his first forty or so big league frames. And Jeff Hoffman, the crown jewel of the Tulo swap, ought to be knocking on the big league door by mid-season, if not before. (Fellow 2014 first-rounder Kyle Freeland might have been right there with him, but last year was basically a lost season due to injury and he’ll probably be delayed. The same is true of 2011 first-round choice Tyler Anderson, who seems in even more dire injury straits.)

With that array of pitchers, which doesn’t even consider the organizational depth options who have picked up big league experience in recent years, there’s just not much reason to go blowing cash on a low-upside free agent arm. (That’s especially true if the club is able to get an MLB-ready starter back for Gonzalez.) Instead, perhaps, the Rockies can wait for an appealing opportunity to arise. The Brett Anderson deal potentially provides a model to add an MLB-level arm with some upside, even if it didn’t work out as hoped. While there’s little chance of a veteran turning to the Rockies for an opportunity to rebuild their value, a later-career hurler such as Rich Hill might be wooed by the opportunity to start even without a market-busting offer. And Colorado could wait to bail out one of the many quality pitchers who are on this year’s market, as there’s a possibility that a player or two could fall through the cracks. But another Kendrick-like investment just doesn’t seem all that necessary.

Much the same holds true of the bullpen, though perhaps Colorado can woo a ding-and-dent late-inning arm on a reasonable deal with the promise of save opportunities. The exciting Adam Ottavino likely won’t be available for a good piece of the season. And while John Axford has been solid, unless the team can strike a deal, he seems like a luxury at his projected arb salary (though indications are that the team may want him back). Justin Miller and Jairo Diaz showed some real promise, but there’s no reason to boost their earning power with too much late-inning work if it can be avoided.

Otherwise, a veteran depth addition is always useful, but there isn’t much reason to do more. Tulo trade piece Miguel Castro may go back for some altitude training at Albuquerque, but is another live-armed option. And the club has other veterans to be called upon, including the overpriced but useful Logan, Christian Friedrich and Christian Bergman. And then there are wild cards such as former Rule 5 pick Tommy Kahnle and Scott Oberg. It’s worth noting that Rex Brothers could be sent packing now that he’s qualified for arbitration. That’s a tough call since he had so much success earlier in his career, but Brothers has walked more than six batters per nine innings since the start of 2014 (at both the major and minor league level).

Bottom line: tempting as it is to invest in pitching, the Rockies’ dollars may go to better use elsewhere, at least for 2016. The club could look instead to invest in some buy-low bats, for example. Paying Morneau $12MM over two years made him into a nice trade chip last summer, though the team never cashed him in. Taking some risks on players of that ilk at least holds out the promise of a positive ROI. The team almost certainly won’t contend regardless. And there won’t be much room to maneuver, barring some big-salary shedding, with $65MM in guarantees and upwards of $30MM in potential arb payouts coming down the line in 2016 (in the unlikely even that all eligible players are tendered).

Another way to invest would be in extensions. Both the Tulo and CarGo early-career deals worked out, at least giving the organization the chance to try to build around two reasonably-priced superstars. The increasingly awesome Arenado is the chief candidate now, and his startlingly steep arbitration projection as a Super Two provides good cause to begin talking about a deal. (Check out MLBTR arbitration projection expert Matt Swartz’s appearance on a recent MLBTR Podcast episode to understand why his number is so high.) Of course, Arenado is a Scott Boras client, though that didn’t prevent the team from getting something done with Gonzalez.

Locking up Arenado and making him the team’s new central star might be good business in more ways than one. The attendance at Coors Field seems somewhat impervious to record, and the new party deck surely helping to keep the fans streaming in. But there’s a real sense of negativity around the franchise, and knighting Arenado could help to assuage it. Certainly, it’s a better use of the team’s resources than trying to patch over holes with duct tape while wishing away the inevitable growing pains of an organization that is seeking to accumulate young talent with a new GM.

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