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MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • Jeff Todd analyzed free agent contracts signed by starting pitchers after having turned 31 years of age and opined it will be difficult for James Shields (who will be 33 in December) to break the five-year, $100MM threshold on the open market and is more likely to land a four-year, $75-80MM pact with a vesting/club option or even an opt-out clause included to sweeten the deal.   
  • Tim Dierkes examined the 40-man roster players who have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options (compiled through MLBTR's sources) in the NL Central, AL Central (with an assist from Steve Adams), and NL West. 
  • MLBTR kicked off the Offseason in Review series with Tim's look at the Cubs, Steve's assessment of the Brewers and Marlins, and Jeff's recap of the Diamondbacks. 
  • Prior to reports Ervin Santana is choosing between one-year deals from the Blue Jays and Orioles in the neighborhood of $14MM, Jeff asked MLBTR readers when will the right-hander sign and for what terms. A majority of you believe Santana will agree to a Kyle Lohse-like contract (53%) before Opening Day (68%).
  • MLBTR learned the reported $24K salary the Rakuten Golden Eagles will pay Loek Van Mil is not for the entire season, but the month of March. The right-hander will earn $150K in 2014 plus performance bonuses. 
  • Steve hosted the weekly live chat.
  • Zach Links gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In. 

Out Of Options Players: NL West

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Next, we'll take a look at the NL West.

Diamondbacks: Randall Delgado, Matt Tuiasosopo, Marcos Mateo (Rule 5)

With the Diamondbacks beginning their season on March 22nd in Australia against the Dodgers, both teams will deal with a unique set of roster rules, as outlined by MLB.com's Steve Gilbert last month.

Delgado seems slated for Arizona's bullpen, unless perhaps Bronson Arroyo's bulging disk lands him on the DL.  Regarding Tuiasosopo, D'Backs manager Kirk Gibson told Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic yesterday, "He definitely could be a guy that comes into play for us because of his versatility."  

The D'Backs took Mateo from the Cubs in December's Rule 5 draft, but with Brad Ziegler, J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, Addison Reed, Josh Collmenter, and Joe Thatcher seemingly locked in, there won't be room for Mateo if Delgado joins the pen.  A trade or injury could create a spot.  A trade with the Cubs to retain Mateo's rights wouldn't make much sense, as the D'Backs would still have to pass him through waivers to get him to Triple-A.

Dodgers: Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Drew Butera

Elbert is on the 60-day DL currently, so he won't be occupying a roster spot.  Guerra is "up against it" in trying to make a Dodgers bullpen stacked with veterans, as explained by MLB.com's Ken Gurnick last month.  Tim Federowicz is set to back up A.J. Ellis behind the plate, so the Dodgers will probably have to try to pass Butera through waivers.

Giants: David Huff, Joaquin Arias, Gregor Blanco, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi, Ehire Adrianza, Tony Abreu

Yesterday, Matt Kawahara of The Sacramento Bee suggested there are two openings in the Giants' bullpen, assuming Petit makes the group as a long man.  Machi will probably take one, but it could be tough for Huff to make the team in a similar role to Petit.  Heath Hembree, Derek Law, and Jose De Paula are just a few of the other names in the mix.

There won't be room for both Adrianza and Abreu, as explained by Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles.  It seems likely one of them will be traded.

Padres: Cameron Maybin, Eric Stults, Dale Thayer, Yonder Alonso, Rene Rivera, Alex Torres

Unless the Padres decide to carry three catchers, Rivera's shot at making the team depends on Yasmani Grandal's recovery from July knee surgery.

Rockies: Jordan Pacheco, Tyler Chatwood

Pacheco is slated to serve as the backup catcher behind Wilin Rosario, though he had an issue with his shoulder earlier this week.  Michael McKenry is in camp to provide some competition for Pacheco.

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins made a series of small moves as they wait for their young core to reach the Major League level and climb out of the NL East cellar.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Marlins’ offseason began with a long-awaited shakeup that saw president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest dismissed, with assistant GM Dan Jennings being promoted to general manager and general manager Michael Hill assuming Beinfest’s old role. The drama leading up to the decision was widely publicized, as Beinfest was long said to have clashed with owner Jeffrey Loria, who often went over Beinfest’s head. One example was last summer’s one-year extension for bench bat Greg Dobbs; the deal was said to be worked out by Loria and Dobbs’ agent, with Beinfest not even being aware that the negotiations were taking place.

Saltalamacchia-Marlins

With the front-office shuffle out of the way, the Marlins set to work on supplementing their young core. While the Anibal Sanchez trade brought over young catcher Rob Brantly, who for a time looked to be the catcher of the future, Miami wasn’t happy enough with Brantly’s progress and elected to fill the void with their biggest signing of the offseason. Saltalamacchia (pictured) was brought in on a three-year, $21MM deal that proved to be far less expensive than most pundits had figured — particularly after 35-year-old Carlos Ruiz signed a three-year, $26.5MM deal to remain with the Phillies.

While Saltalamacchia has his flaws — he strikes out at a prolific rate and does not hit well from the right side of the dish — the deal looks quite favorable when juxtaposed with the much older Ruiz’s contract. Saltalamacchia’s deal pays him for his age-29 to age-31 seasons. Beyond that, he’s bound to be an improvement for a team that saw its catchers post a collective .192/.249/.280 batting line (no, that is not a typo) in 2013 — good for the worst cumulative wRC+ (42) at that position in all of Major League Baseball.

Unhappy with the way former top prospect Morrison had turned out — both on and off the field — the Marlins traded the injury-plagued social media guru to the Mariners in exchange for a flamethrowing right-hander in the form of Capps. While Capps has a good deal of upside as a late-inning arm, it still seems a disappointing return for a player who once looked to be on his way to emerging as one of the National League’s top young first basemen. Brash or not, LoMo twice ranked among Baseball America’s Top 20 MLB prospects and slashed .259/.351/.460 in his age-22 to age-23 seasons before a pair of knee surgeries diminished his 2012-13 production.

The Marlins aimed big in their attempts to find an upgrade over Morrison, as they reportedly made a serious run at Cuban slugger Jose Abreu and were comfortable pursuing him even when it was learned that his price tag would exceed $50MM. Abreu ultimately signed with the White Sox on a six-year, $68MM contract, forcing Miami to look elsewhere.

It’s no Abreu, but the Marlins were able to cobble together a cheap platoon that should be able to provide plenty of pop. The signings of Jones and Baker were met with little fanfare, but the duo could be an under-the-radar source of offense for the Fish. Baker pummelled lefties at a .314/.407/.667 clip with 10 homers in 123 PAs last season and has a career .298/.353/.522 line against southpaws. Likewise, the lefty-swinging Jones has a career .271/.337/.489 batting line against right-handed pitching. The pair may be defensively limited, but they could surprise at the plate.

Loria’s issues with second base prospect Derek Dietrich were well-documented last year — Loria wanted to hold Dietrich down in the minors due to the belief that he was one of the reasons hitting coach Tino Martinez resigned after players dubbed him abusive — and the club sought to address that hole on the free agent market. Miami inked Furcal, a lifetime shortstop, to a one-year deal with the idea of him manning the keystone on an everyday basis.

Polanco provided veteran leadership but little else for the Marlins in 2013, and with retirement a likely outcome for Polanco, Miami plucked McGehee out of Nippon Professional Baseball on a cheap one-year deal. McGehee posted a monster season as Masahiro Tanaka’s teammate with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, slashing .292/.376/.515 with 28 homers.

Losing Qualls was an undoubted hit to the bullpen, but Miami added Capps and took a reasonable gamble on Marmol’s strikeouts. It’s easy to chuckle at Marmol’s struggles, but he’s never whiffed fewer than 10.8 hitters per nine innings in a big league season. Even marginal improvement in his command could make him a weapon.

Questions Remaining

There’s no doubt that Jose Fernandez is one of the best young pitchers in the game and the cornerstone of the Marlins’ rotation; the $635K payday they gave him proves that, as the Marlins could’ve given him a mere $1K raise and not been alone in such a pre-arb payscale.

However, they neglected to add any veteran depth beyond re-signing Slowey to another minor league deal, and seem willing to proceed with Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez and Jacob Turner behind him in the rotation. Slowey, Tom Koehler, Brian Flynn, Andrew Heaney and others will compete for the fifth slot. The Marlins have depth, but a veteran arm on a one-year deal could’ve helped lessen the burden for their young stockpile of starters.

Likewise, they seem set to go with youth in the outfield alongside Giancarlo Stanton, as Jake Marisnick, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna battle for the other two slots. All three come with plenty of upside and have been Top 100 prospects, but each is also under the age of 24.

Turning toward the infield, there are question marks at all four spots. The aforementioned Baker/Jones platoon should hit, but neither has shown much defensive aptitude at first base. McGehee left for NPB due to a drastic decline at the plate. Adeiny Hechavarria’s defense has impressed the Marlins, but he pulled off the rare feat of posting a sub-.300 average, OBP and slugging percentage in 2013 (.227/.267/.298). This year will be critical for him to show that his bat can trend closer to his Triple-A numbers (.327/.376/.446 in 606 PAs).

Furcal didn’t play in 2013 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, and at age 36, how much does he have left in the tank? He batted .264/.325/.346 in 2012 with the Cardinals and has appeared in just five games at second base since 2001. Can he really be an upgrade over Dietrich, who struggled offensively but showed plus pop with a .214/.275/.405 batting line? Among second basemen with 200+ PAs, only Robinson Cano and Jedd Gyorko bested Dietrich’s .191 ISO. He did skip Triple-A, so perhaps some time at that level will improve his all-around game.

Of course, the biggest question with the Marlins on a year-to-year basis regards Stanton. Miami has said that the plan is to build around Stanton (and now Fernandez), but outside of Saltalamacchia and a failed push for Abreu, the Marlins did little this offseason to impress Stanton. Miami is counting on its young core to make large strides and form the basis of a winning team, but that could take until 2016, when Stanton has just one year of team control remaining. Stanton tweeted that he was “pissed off” following the Marlins’ 2012-13 firesale in which they traded Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson and others, effectively hitting the reset button just one year into a new stadium. Has the bridge been burned, or could those same players’ inability to win with the Blue Jays (along with Miami’s bounty of prospects) have quelled Stanton’s anger?

Deal of Note

As stated above, the Morrison trade brought back a young arm with some upside, but was that the best possible return the team could have gotten? It’s odd to think that Morrison wound up with the Mariners — a team that already had Justin Smoak, Corey Hart, Jesus Montero and several other corner/DH type bats in house.

Fast forwarding to the present day, the Pirates and Brewers still lack a great deal of uncertainty at first base, and either team would likely consider Morrison an upgrade over its current in-house options. Capps has averaged 10.1 K/9 in his young career with decent control (3.6 BB/9) and an average fastball velocity of 96.5 mph. However, he’s also yielded a .321/.414/.543 batting line to opposing lefties.

It’s fair to wonder if a better deal for Morrison would have materialized had the Marlins exercised more patience.

Overview

The 2014 Marlins could be an improved team simply due to the fact that their young players have another year of big league experience under their belts. Adding Saltalamacchia should help to improve the team’s production from behind the plate, but most of their other additions come with questions on defense, offense or both.

While the Marlins could win a few more games, their offseason dealings likely weren’t enough to pull them out of last place in the NL East. They’ll probably have another Top 5 to 10 selection in the 2015 draft after choosing second this year and sixth last year. However, the clock to extend Stanton is ticking, and an improved on-field product would likely help their cause. At some point, the results will need to show up on the field and in the standings, but for now, another Marlins rebuild continues.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Out Of Options Players: AL Central

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Next, we'll take a look at the AL Central.

Indians: Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman

Both Carrasco and Outman will be on the Indians' pitching staff, noted Tony Lastoria of FOX Sports Ohio on Monday.  Carrasco is battling a few others for the fifth starter job, but if he doesn't earn it he'll go to the pen.

Royals: Brett Hayes, Jarrod Dyson, Justin Maxwell, Pedro Ciriaco, Francisley Bueno, Carlos Peguero, Danny Valencia

Hayes seems to be the favorite to back up Salvador Perez at catcher, as 24-year-old Francisco Pena can get more seasoning at Triple-A.  Veteran Ramon Hernandez, signed to a minor league deal, is also in the mix for the Royals' backup catcher job.

Dyson is expected to make the team as the center field backup for Lorenzo Cain, wrote Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star last week.  That leaves Maxwell and Peguero battling for the fifth outfield spot.  Maxwell would seem to have a leg up, having played well upon joining the team in a trade last July.  His right-handed bat might be of more use to the Royals, who avoided arbitration with Maxwell in a January agreement about a week before acquiring Peguero.

The Royals seem to have room for five infielders, and Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star wrote last week that Valencia is likely to make the team.  That would leave the team without a reserve middle infielder behind Omar Infante and Alcides Escobar.  If the Royals do surprise and find a way to include a reserve middle infielder, it would be a competition of Ciriaco, Christian Colon, and Johnny Giavotella.

Bueno is competing with Donnie Joseph and Everett Teaford to become the Royals' second bullpen lefty behind Tim Collins.

Tigers: Don Kelly, Evan Reed, Jose Iglesias

Kelly is in good standing as a super-utility man.  There appears to be one bullpen job up for grabs, with pitchers such as Luke Putkonen, Justin Miller, Blaine Hardy, and Casey Crosby (if healthy) among those battling with Reed.  The Tigers claimed Reed off waivers from the Marlins about a year ago, and will probably need to put him in their bullpen to start the season to retain him. 

Twins: Trevor Plouffe, Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, Vance Worley, Eduardo Escobar, Alex Presley, Chris Parmelee

Plouffe and Swarzak are locks to make the club.  Plouffe figures to man third base on an everyday basis now that Miguel Sano is out for the season, and Swarzak was among the league's best swingmen in 2013.

Diamond, Deduno and Worley are in the mix for the fifth spot in the rotation, and each can make their case based on historical context.  Diamond was the club's best starter in 2012, Deduno has outperformed him since, and Worley was a key component of the Ben Revere trade just one offseason ago before a disastrous 2013 dropped his stock.  The trio also has deal with top prospect Kyle Gibson, who is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.  Any of the three could end up in the bullpen, but at least one seems likely to go.

Presley has the inside track to make the club either as the Opening Day center fielder — should Aaron Hicks struggle in Spring Training — or as a fourth outfielder.

Escobar's versatility is appealing to the Twins, and his case for the Opening Day roster has been strengthened now that starter Pedro Florimon had his appendix removed two weeks ago.  Florimon is fielding grounders pain-free as of yesterday, per MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger, but his Opening Day status is up in the air.  Former Twin Jason Bartlett is in camp as a non-roster invitee and could serve as competition.

Parmelee is a former first-rounder that hasn't hit since a 2011 September call-up.  The now-26-year-old demolished Triple-A pitching in 2012 but has batted just .228/.302/.364 over his past 543 PAs in the Majors.  He didn't fare much better at Triple-A in 2013.  With Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham at the outfield corners, Joe Mauer at first base and Jason Kubel likely to make the club as a DH/corner outfielder, Parmelee's best hope is to lock down a bench role.  His experience at first base could give him an edge for that spot.

White Sox: Conor Gillaspie, Ronald Belisario, Mitchell Boggs, Maikel Cleto, Donnie Veal, Alejandro De Aza, Dayan Viciedo

The Sox seem to only have one spot open for a third baseman at this time, though that could change if they trade an outfielder like Dayan Viciedo or Alejandro De Aza.  As it stands, Gillaspie is competing for third base with Jeff Keppinger and rookie Matt Davidson.  It would be sensible to start Davidson at Triple-A, and it's possible lingering effects of Keppinger's September shoulder surgery could cause him to start the year on the DL.  

Boggs and Belisario seem locks for the bullpen after signing as free agents, though Belisario has yet to arrive in camp due to visa issues.  A few of the team's relievers are dealing with nagging injuries, but if everyone is healthy and Belisario is in camp as Opening Day approaches, there would seem to be one spot for either Veal (a lefty) or Cleto.  Veal is the favorite over Cleto, who joined the team in a waiver claim just last week.  

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Out Of Options Players: NL Central

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.  Today, we'll take a look at the NL Central.

Brewers: Juan Francisco, Jeff Bianchi

Francisco is competing with Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay for the Brewers' first base job.  It's hard to imagine a scenario where all three make the team, wrote Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel last week.  Reynolds and Overbay signed minor league deals, but it seems likely at least one of them will make the team.  When Reynolds signed in January, it was said the Brewers told him he'll almost certainly make the team, so Overbay might have to beat out Francisco, who has the advantage of already being on the 40-man roster.

Back in February, Curt Hogg of Disciples of Uecker dissected the Brewers' reserve infielder situation, explaining that while they may need to carry seven infielders, Bianchi still seems needed as the only one capable of backing up Jean Segura at shortstop.

Cardinals: None

Cubs: George Kottaras, Wesley Wright, Justin Ruggiano, James McDonald, Pedro Strop, Welington Castillo, Jeff Samardzija, Luis Valbuena, Travis Wood, Donnie Murphy, Alberto Cabrera

McDonald is competing with Chris Rusin for the Cubs' fifth starter job, at least until Jake Arrieta's shoulder is deemed ready.  Meanwhile, Cabrera is battling for the final bullpen spot with about a half-dozen others.

Pirates: Chris Stewart, Jeanmar Gomez, Mark Melancon, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata, Bryan Morris, Andy Oliver, Stolmy Pimentel, Pedro Alvarez, Vin Mazzaro

The Bucs' seven primary relievers last year were Jason Grilli, Melancon, Justin Wilson, Tony Watson, Gomez, Mazzaro, and Morris, and indeed, that was their bullpen for the NLDS.  It would be difficult for Oliver to break into that group, but surely the Pirates don't want to lose the hard-throwing Pimentel.  Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects thinks they'll find a place for him.  Some kind of trade makes sense to clear the logjam, barring injury.

Reds: Alfredo Simon

Simon is in good standing as a member of the Reds' pen.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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One would be hard-pressed to offer a better description of this year’s Diamondbacks offseason than that written at the same time last year by MLBTR’s Steve Adams: “The Diamondbacks made a number of moves that raised eyebrows and invited skepticism this offseason, and they’ll have to improve on last year’s .500 record to silence those naysayers.”

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings
Trades and Claims
Extensions
  • Josh Collmenter, RHP: two years, $2.425MM. Club option for 2016 and mutual option for 2017.
  • Brad Ziegler, RHP: two years, $10.5MM. Club option for 2016.
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
“Need” may not be the right word to describe the target areas for Arizona GM Kevin Towers coming into the offseason. After all, the club featured a fairly balanced set of players: a couple of young options at short to round out the infield; several youthful outfielders to join a returning Cody Ross; a nice group of rotation candidates; and the basis for a solid relief corps. There were questions, surely, but one would have been hard-pressed to point to a significant area where an addition was truly necessary.
Trumbo
Nevertheless, Towers had a clear set of priorities in mind, and saw room to reshape and improve his club. Power was the watchword, as rumors suggested that Arizona was intent on adding another big bat to accompany star young first bagger Paul Goldschmidt. Then, reports emerged that the team also hoped to add a major arm to the top of its rotation.
As it turned out, the D’Backs worked the trade market hard. First came a stage-setting flip to get out from under $5.5MM of the $6MM still owed to Bell. In order to move those dollars, Arizona had to include a solid prospect in Holmberg. At the time, Towers said that the team’s newfound flexibility would go to adding “bench pieces” (he mentioned re-signing Chavez), a top-of-the-rotation starter (“probably … via trade”), and “a corner outfield bat.”
With the added payroll space in his pocket, Towers worked quickly to replace the corner-outfield power output that went with Justin Upton to Atlanta last year. Striking a deal with the Angels and White Sox, Towers brought in the slugging Trumbo in exchange for two well-regarded prospects in Eaton and Skaggs. Trumbo brings undeniable 30-homer power to Arizona, and certainly promises to do what Towers hoped in that department. But he does not get on base consistently (career .299 OBP) and is not a good bet to add value through defense. (Though UZR and DRS both prefer his work in left to the opposite corner, his overall outfield numbers show that he is probably average at best.) Additionally, while Eaton and Skaggs had seen some of their prospect luster fade, the two are still considered high-end young talents who are just about ready to be big-league contributors.
Shortly thereafter came the acquisition of Reed, a powerful young closer. With Trumbo in left, the team planned to slot Martin Prado at the hot corner; that, in turn, meant that the young third bagger Davidson was blocked at the MLB level. So, he was flipped to Chicago for the right to plug Reed’s electric arm into the back of the Arizona pen. Burning another top trade chip on a relief arm, however, may have hampered the club’s stated desire to deal for an impact starter.
After securing Chavez’s return on a one-year, $3.5MM deal, Towers turned to a rotation market that was focused solely on one man: Masahiro Tanaka. Long rumored to be enamored of the Japanese ace, the Diamondbacks were reportedly willing to commit $120MM to acquire him. Of course, that fell far shy of Tanaka’s stunning deal with the Yankees.
That left the D’Backs looking at a remaining crop of free agents that was fronted by mid-tier options that did not suit their needs. Having already dealt from the team’s base of prospects, and being understandably unwilling to move top youngster Archie Bradley, potential trade scenarios involving arms like David Price and Jeff Samardzija never materialized.
Instead, the team added depth and stability by inking the veteran Arroyo to a low-downside, low-upside deal. The signing unquestionably added solid innings to the Arizona docket, and decreased both the team’s exposure to injury risk and the pressure to start Bradley’s service clock. That Arroyo does not fill an obvious need — the team could have gone with Randall Delgado in the rotation — does not imply that he is not useful. But certainly Arroyo does not constitute the kind of impact addition that Towers had sought, and the team appears to have paid a full-market price for the durable veteran (having outbid the Orioles for his services).
The organization also used the offseason to lock down its leadership beyond the 2014 season. Arizona announced extensions of unknown length for Towers and manager Kirk Gibson in early February.
Questions Remaining
Interestingly, one of the most obvious areas of real need — backup catcher — is a place that the Diamondbacks did not act decisively. The club brought in a few non-roster invitees, led by 42-year-old Henry Blanco, to fill in behind starter Miguel Montero. Arizona may not be done dealing, however, as the team is reportedly looking to ship one of its talented young shortstops for a young backstop.
Somewhat relatedly, if it plans to deal from its depth up the middle, the club needs to decide whether to run with Didi Gregorius or Chris Owings as the everyday shortstop to start the season. That decision — and, more importantly, the performance of whoever lands the job in the long term — could have a major impact not only on this season but the team’s future outlook.
Aside from the usual set of questions regarding performance, the D’Backs face some uncertainty in their outfield mix with Cody Ross still recovering from hip surgery. Though his recovery has reportedly been progressing quite well, Ross only just began running the bases. A setback would be tricky to cover, though Arizona has options. A.J. Pollock could step into a starting outfield role, but behind him lies only a group of minor league free agents. In theory, the club could instead shift Prado to the outfield and use Chavez and Cliff Pennington at the hot corner, but that too is an imperfect solution that could strain the team’s depth.
Deal of Note
I’ll stretch the scope of this heading to consider both of the Diamondbacks’ big trades, because they carry similar characteristics. Trumbo and Reed are both still young (28 and 25, respectively) and came with several years of control (3 and 4). The two are each dynamic, powerful players with some premium tools.
But neither brings a ton of overall value to the table. Trumbo’s power comes at the price of a ton of strikeouts and few walks, and he is not a plus defensively. Reed generates lots of whiffs and limits walks, but fails to get groundballs, has yet to line up his peripherals with results, and most importantly has a limited ceiling by the nature of his position.
Moreover, with lots of counting stats already in the bag, the two will not be cheap. With 95 career long balls, Trumbo already landed a $4.8MM deal in his first season of arbitration eligibility. Notably, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him to earn virtually the same amount as young star Giancarlo Stanton. Though Stanton ended up settling for a much higher figure, the point is clear: Trumbo’s power inflates his cost in arbitration, and no discount is built in to reflect his inability to draw walks.
The same promises to hold true for Reed, who already has 69 saves to his name. Checking in some of the comps utilized by Swartz in discussing the exceptional arbitration case of Craig Kimbrel, it seems eminently possible that Reed could end up somewhere in the range of Brian Wilson ($4.46MM) and John Axford ($5MM) in their first years of eligibility. (Notably, of course, Axford was non-tendered in his second year of eligiblity, an unappetizing but realistic eventual possibility for Arizona with respect to Reed.) Curiously, the D’backs parted with a solid prospect just to unload Bell’s salary, then gave up an even better youngster to bring in another reliever who may well price himsef off of the roster in relatively short order.
Most importantly, perhaps, the talent given up to obtain these two players — Eaton, Skaggs, Davidson, and (in effect) Holmberg — might have come in handy over the years to come. Somewhat remarkably, that group occupied four of the six top spots in Baseball America’s prospect rankings of the Diamondbacks before the 2013 season. Though none had made significant leaps forward over the last year, they all also moved closer to MLB readiness without suffering any major injuries.
Overview
In the aggregate, the D’backs gave up 23 years of control over those four prospects — much of which will come at league minimum — to shed Bell (along with $5.5MM of his salary) and add seven years of Trumbo and Reed (assuming both are not non-tendered at some point). While these moves probably make the team better for 2014, it is more than fair to wonder whether any near-term improvement is sufficient to have warranted that kind of sacrifice.
Towers has not hesitated to act aggressively to reshape his team’s roster, but it is not clear that he has substantially improved it after two-straight .500 seasons. The heat is on for results, especially after the recent outflow of future talent. If the team struggles out of the gate, or looks in need of a trade-deadline jolt, it will be fascinating to see what bold new moves the GM has in store.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

What Might James Shields Earn In Free Agency?

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We heard earlier today that the Royals have no intentions of making a run at extending ace hurler James Shields. That would seem to confirm what has long been expected: namely, barring a surprising change of circumstances, Shields will hit the market next year looking to sell his services for age-33 and beyond.

As Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star noted earlier today, Shields and his camp have rejected rumors that he is seeking to land a deal in the realm of Zack Greinke's six-year, $147MM pact. (Note that Greinke did not require draft compensation to sign, as Shields almost certainly will unless he too is dealt mid-season.) 

But, as McCullough notes, Shields compares well to Greinke — indeed, he compares well to just about anyone not named Clayton Kershaw — in terms of recent production. He has pitched at least 200 innings (and often quite a bit more) for each of the last seven seasons, and has logged ERA totals of between 2.82 and 3.52 over the last three. Shields has been among the 20 or so most valuable pitchers since he cracked the league, and has looked more like a top-ten guy more recently.

So, can Shields earn Greinke money? Though his numbers make that contract look like a solid comp, another major factor speaks firmly against it: namely, age. At the time Greinke inked with the Dodgers, he was just over 29 years old, and threw at that age for the entire season in the first year of his deal. Shields will be four years older when he faces the open market for the first time.

This series of observations led MLBTR's Tim Dierkes to suggest that, perhaps, it would be worthwhile to look at the historical results of top-level, slightly older hurlers. The results of that research, and my discussions on the topic with both Tim and fellow MLBTR writer Steve Adams, make up what you'll read below. 

Unsurprisingly, it turns out that slightly older pitchers have not readily landed huge contracts. That makes sense, for at least two major reasons. First is simply the factor of selection bias. Most really good pitchers accrue service time early in their careers and thus hit the open market slightly earlier than will Shields, who did not crack the bigs until age 24 and then gave up two years of free agency in an early-career extension. Likewise, as age increases, the likelihood of significant injury goes up, further attriting the possibly worthy arms. The second reason is even easier: older pitchers have less near-peak years left to sell.

Let's take a look at all pitchers to have signed deals with at least a $60MM guarantee at a $15MM or greater average annual value — after having turned 31 years of age. (The last column represents the player's age at Opening Day of the first season of their deal).

Recent $60MM pitchers over 31

Among these potential comps, we can reject several out of hand. First, Brown and Lowe were both significantly older and signed deals in quite a different market. (Frankly, I only kept them on the chart to show how remarkable their contracts were.) Wainwright signed an under-market extension, while Halladay was also probably on a different performance/perception level and signed his own deal under somewhat odd circumstances.

That leaves us with four potential free agent comps, all of whom are near in age to where Shields will be when he hits the market. All signed five-year deals in early-to-mid-March of their free agent year. (If Shields signs before his birthday on December 20th, he'd be just shy of 33 years of age, making him slightly older than the other four were.)

How does Shields stack up to that quartet? Let's look at both three-year averages and walk-year performances to get an idea, and look at the salary numbers through the lens of inflation (present dollar value estimated via US Inflation Calculator). I have used ERA and fWAR not to suggest that those are the proper means by which to value pitchers, but to represent two sides of the overall picture: the former captures pure results, while the latter incorporates FIP as its baseline and thereby captures some of the underlying talent and rate-based results that teams surely examine closely when signing deals of this magnitude.

Comparison

Needless to say, Lee paced the grouping — at least in the eyes of advanced metrics and in dollars achieved. He still fell well short of Greinke's guarantee, though of course he inked his deal a few years back and reportedly could have signed for seven years and $148MM. 

As for Shields, his current three-year and last-year ERA both stand at 3.15. He has been worth 12.9 fWAR over the last three seasons, and earned 4.5 wins in 2013. Assuming he hits the market with approximately the same profile — i.e., he logs another 200+ innings of pitching in the low-to-mid-3.00 ERA range and has underlying metrics to support a 4-5 fWAR season — where might he land?

The answer, probably, is not in the realm of Greinke's contract (or the commensurate offer that Lee could have signed). Even accepting that baseball inflation has outpaced that of the general economy — or, at least, understanding that MLB salary levels are subject to wide variation due to the league's comparatively tiny player market, small sample of transactions, and range of non-market-based influences — the Wilson-Lackey-Burnett line of arms equate at most to a five-year, $100MM present-day value.

Importantly, Dierkes noted, those three were clearly the best available arms in their free agent years. While it is still conceivable that Shields will ultimately be the most attractive starter available when the market opens, odds are he will slot in behind Max Scherzer and possibly Jon Lester. (Of course, if Scherzer repeats his 2013 season, he might be on another plane altogether.) And if Justin Masterson hits the market, he might be more appealing to some clubs because of his significantly younger age. Regardless, unless each of those arms is extended off the market or takes a large value hit, Shields will not be the sole target for clubs looking to add an impact starter.

Moreover, as I recently noted in discussing extensions, teams have evinced an increasing willingness to value age. That attention to the aging curve probably also implies a corresponding unwillingness to roll the dice on continued production on its downside. Still-excellent pitchers Hiroki Kuroda (age 39) and A.J. Burnett (age 37) just signed one-year deals that will pay them $16MM. Can Shields really beat that AAV on a five-year pact that would buy out his age 33-37 campaigns, especially if there are alternative arms on the market? As Adams noted, Shields' slightly more advanced age means that a fifth year would push his guarantee into somewhat uncharted territory as compared with his most direct comps. It is worth wondering whether clubs would be willing to guarantee another year at such an elevated rate.

In the aggregate, it looks as though Shields could reasonably expect to top out at five years, with a $20MM AAV a seeming longshot at that term. On a four-year deal, Shields might land in the $75MM to $80MM range, perhaps with a vesting/club option of some kind attached on the end. But barring a massive jolt to the market that leaves Shields as the unquestioned prize with multiple suitors, it is somewhat difficult to imagine him reaching the $100MM threshold — if he is able to get a guaranteed fifth year at all.

One possible twist would be the inclusion of an opt-out clause. As Dierkes notes on Twitter, Lee actually had one offer that included an opt-out before he signed on with the Phillies. In his excellent piece on the use of opt-out clauses, Dierkes wrote that such provisions may not be that onerous to the team since, if exercised, the club is able to re-assess whether to take on further obligations (and, I would note, can do so with the advantage of insider knowledge on that pitcher). If clubs are unwilling to guarantee as much cash as Shields hopes for, he could potentially press instead for a deal that includes an opt-out, allowing him to re-enter the market if he carries his production into his mid-30's. And at that point, perhaps the Lowe contract would take on increasing relevance.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers are hoping that a pair of late free agent signings and the return of two key bats will help them improve upon their fourth-place finish in a stacked NL Central division.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Though Milwaukee’s starters finished the season well, the team’s first-half struggles were pronounced. Even after the addition of Kyle Lohse — who pitched well in his debut season with the team — the Brewers’ rotation combined for a 4.86 ERA prior to the All-Star break (third-worst in all of baseball). That mark dropped to a stellar 3.36 in the second half thanks to turnarounds from Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada.

Garza-Matt-Rangers

However, Milwaukee lacked a clear fifth starter, as 12 different pitchers started games for the team in 2013. That’s no longer an issue, as the addition of Garza not only improves the team’s chances of sustaining its second-half surge, it gives manager Ron Roenicke no questions about which five pitchers will be taking the hill on a regular basis. Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Estrada and Peralta form a solid quintet that could be one of the better rotations in the National League.

The Brewers also entered the offseason with a good deal of uncertainty in the bullpen, which made the decision to trade Badenhop for a low-level minor league arm a bit puzzling. Nonetheless, the additions of Smith and Rodriguez give Roenicke two arms to bolster his relief corps. Smith broke out in Kansas City last season, posting a strong 3.24 ERA with 11.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 33 2/3 innings (he was even better as a reliever, as he yielded four runs in four innings in his lone start of 2013). Smith held opposing lefties to a .557 OPS, and even righties managed just a .684 OPS against him. He could also be deployed as a starting pitcher should the club see some injuries in the rotation. Or, the club could prefer to Smith him in his best role to date and turn to Tyler Thornburg or Mike Fiers should a starter go down.

Rodriguez, the club’s only other Major League signing besides Garza, signed his third separate one-year deal with the Brewers this offseason and provides a nice fallback option should Jim Henderson falter as the club’s closer. K-Rod was outstanding for the Brewers in 24 2/3 innings before being traded to Baltimore for Nick Delmonico last year. Milwaukee now gets to keep Delmonico and deploy Rodriguez from its bullpen once again.

Questions Remaining

The biggest need for Milwaukee may simply have been to make sure the starters are able to take the field. Aramis Ramirez missed much of 2013 with injury, Ryan Braun was suspended for the season’s second half and Corey Hart never played a game at first base after undergoing a pair of knee surgeries.

The club now is faced with questions surrounding those players. Will Ramirez, who turns 36 in June, be able to stay healthy? How will Braun respond to the media attention that he will undoubtedly receive all season and the negative reactions in visiting parks (and potentially his own home park as well)?

Perhaps the biggest question facing Milwaukee, though, is its first base situation. The Brewers were very interested in a reunion with Hart, but they neglected to match Seattle’s price. The Mariners guaranteed Hart $6MM with the chance to earn up to $13MM total after incentives. Milwaukee’s best offer to Hart, reportedly, allowed him to max out at $8MM. The Brewers were also connected to James Loney, though they balked at his asking price as well, and Loney returned to the Rays on a three-year, $21MM deal. Another possibility would have been Ike Davis, but GM Doug Melvin was unwilling to part with right-hander Tyler Thornburg to make a trade happen.

In the end, Reynolds was signed with the promise that he was a virtual lock to make the club out of Spring Training. The 30-year-old possesses light-tower power but also strikes out at a prolific rate and found himself released by the Indians last year. Reynolds got off to one of the hottest starts in recent memory but fell into what could be the worst slump of his career prior to being let go. He could platoon with Overbay or Juan Francisco, but each member of that trio comes with more red flags and question marks than guarantees.

The Brewers will soon learn if Khris Davis can be their everyday left fielder, or if that will be something they need to address in future offseasons. Davis posted a whopping .279/.353/.596 batting line with 11 homers in just 153 plate appearances last season, indicating that he has the potential to hit 25 or maybe even 30-plus homers in the Major Leagues. However, he’s also never been too highly regarded as a prospect and comes with some defensive limitations. Already 26 years old, this will be somewhat of a make-or-break year for Davis.

Lastly, Jean Segura is penciled in as the everyday shortstop, but he will need to prove that he’s capable of producing over a full season. The one-time Rookie of the Year candidate finished with strong overall numbers but batted a mere .241/.268/.315 in the season’s second half.

Deal Of Note

Brewers GM Doug Melvin had drawn plenty of ire from fans and media alike for his lack of activity on the free agent market prior to signing Garza in late January. Milwaukee was the only club not to have signed a Major League free agent at that point, but Melvin’s patience paid off, as he was able to get Garza for roughly the same price that netted the Twins Ricky Nolasco more than two months earlier.

There was some uncertainty regarding Garza’s status, as after initial reports that the agreement was reached, pending a physical, the Brewers issued a statement to say that no deal was in place. While teams often refuse to comment on signings that are reported prior to completion of the physical, it’s highly uncommon for a club to actually deny the deal and say the two sides are still in discussion.

Eventually, the deal was announced with a unique and complex fifth-year option that 1) was likely the cause for the delay and 2) demonstrates just how wary teams were of Garza’s health issues. The Brewers have a very cheap $5MM option on Garza for the 2018 season that drops to just $1MM if he is on the DL for 130 days during any of the previous four seasons. However, it can vest at $13MM if he pitches 110 games over the first four years of the deal, is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2017 season and throws at least 115 innings in 2017. With $1MM available in incentives each season, Garza can earn up to $67MM over five years. His $50MM guarantee marks the largest free-agent expenditure in team history.

Overview

Melvin continued a trend we’ve seen from his team in recent years by waiting out the market in order to secure a couple of solid values on late-signing free agents. Milwaukee’s rotation should be improved and will be a strength for this team. Full seasons of Ramirez and Braun will go a long way toward improving the offense, but the production of Davis and Segura loom as uncertainties. If even one of those two performs at a high level, it may be enough to overshadow what seems likely to be a first-base deficiency. Milwaukee plays in an exceptionally difficult division, with three teams coming off a season of 90 or more wins. Despite that, there’s enough talent on the team to contend for a Wild Card spot if everything breaks their way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs added flippable veteran arms, assembled a center field platoon, and brought in a new backup catcher.     

Major League Signings

  • Jason Hammel, SP: one year, $6MM.
  • Jose Veras, RP: one year, $4MM.  $5.5MM club option for 2015 with a $150K buyout.
  • Ryan Sweeney, OF: two years, $3.5MM.  $2.5MM club option for 2016 with a $500K buyout.
  • Wesley Wright, RP: one year, $1.425MM.  Under team control for 2015 as an arbitration eligible player.
  • James McDonald, SP: one year, $1MM.  Under team control for 2015 as an arbitration eligible player.
  • Total spend: $15.925MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

In an alternate universe, the Cubs' 2013-14 offseason could have been very exciting.  They fired manager Dale Sveum in late September, and for about a week there was talk of a big-money run at Joe Girardi, who would have marked a return to the team's "name" managers.  Instead, Girardi re-upped with the Yankees.  The Cubs interviewed A.J. Hinch, Manny Acta, Dave Martinez, Eric Wedge, and Brad Ausmus for their managerial position but ended up hiring someone less famous than any of them in former big league infielder Rick Renteria.  Renteria has no MLB managing experience, but did manage eight seasons in the Marlins' and Padres' farm systems before becoming a Padres bench coach.  The Cubs would probably admit they missed the mark on Sveum, making Renteria the fourth Cubs manager in the last five years.  He signed a three-year deal with two options, and hopefully the Cubs will be satisfied with his handling of young players and find managerial stability.

Having traded Matt Garza and Scott Feldman during the 2013 season, the Cubs were in need of veteran rotation depth for 2014.  They decided not to revisit the Scott Baker idea, letting him walk as a free agent.  Though last summer's Feldman trade netted a rotation candidate in the form of Arrieta, he encountered shoulder tightness in the offseason.

Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have been on the job for three offseasons now, and Hammel is their fourth potential sign-and-flip starting pitcher.  The key return in the Paul Maholm deal, Arodys Vizcaino, is still trying to come back from the Tommy John procedure he had two full years ago.  He could still become an impact reliever, according to Baseball America, which ranked him tenth among Cubs prospects.  Feldman brought Arrieta and reliever Pedro Strop from the Orioles last summer, as well as international bonus pool slots 3 and 4.  The Cubs ultimately went nearly 50% over their international bonus pool, so the slots acquired from Baltimore can be considered nothing more than $58K in overage tax savings.

USATSI_7518696

Having gotten nothing in return for Baker, the Cubs spent close than $12MM in salary on the three flipped starters.  Vizcaino, Arrieta, and Strop are all under team control through 2017, and if the Cubs walk away with multiple seasons of solid cheap relief work, the whole thing was worthwhile, if not spectacular.

When McDonald posted a 3.56 ERA in his first 331 innings with the Pirates, it looked as though they had found something in their 2010 trade with the Dodgers.  The wheels fell off in July 2012, however, and he posted a 6.28 ERA in 104 2/3 frames thereafter, plus time spent in the minors on 2013.  A shoulder injury surfaced in May last year, and by September, McDonald was a free agent.  There's no telling whether the Cubs can get him back to usefulness, but they didn't risk much to try.

The Cubs stumbled into a reunion with Kevin Gregg last year, and although they didn't manage to flip the closer in a trade, he did provide a few months of stability at the back end of their bullpen.  Veras, 33, was signed in December 2012 to be the Astros' closer and was quite good at the job in 43 innings.  The Astros flipped Veras to the Tigers for a pair of far-off prospects in Danry Vasquez and David Paulino, and it stands to reason the Cubs will consider doing the same with Veras if he succeeds in the first half.  Veras apparently wasn't the Cubs' first or only choice in right-handed relief this offseason, as reports linked them to Edward Mujica, John Axford, Joba Chamberlain, and Jesse Crain. 

The Cubs signed Wesley Wright to an affordable deal to bolster their left-handed relief.  In a world where Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, and J.P. Howell garner eight-figure commitments and even a 38-year-old Scott Downs costs $4MM, the $1.425MM commitment to Wright has a chance to return profit.  The Cubs also took some long shots in this area, signing Jonathan Sanchez, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Tommy Hottovy to minor league deals.

Catcher Dioner Navarro wound up signing a two-year, $8MM free agent deal with Toronto on the strength of 266 strong plate appearances with the 2013 Cubs.  With Welington Castillo's solid play, the Cubs had no need to pony up to retain Navarro, who they had signed as a backup for $1.75MM.  I am curious as to whether the Cubs received any decent offers on Navarro during the summer, however.  Regardless, they acquired three reasonable options to back up Castillo this year in Kottaras, Baker, and Whiteside, the last two on minor league deals.  The Cubs reportedly had looked into a more established backup in Kurt Suzuki.  However, the walk-happy Kottaras, a former Epstein acquisition for the Red Sox, will caddy for Castillo to start the season.  

Junior Lake, 24 later this month, hit a respectable .284/.332/.428 in 254 plate appearances for the Cubs last year while learning to play left field.  While the Cubs might be happy to see Lake establish himself as a second-division regular, their entire current outfield seems comprised of placeholders for Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, and perhaps Kris Bryant if he moves off third base.  Schierholtz endured some trade talk but is back as the Cubs' right fielder against right-handed pitching for his walk year.  Ryan Sweeney could take a similar platoon role as the team's primary center fielder, though in last year's limited sample the left-handed hitter handled same-side pitching well.  Kudos to the Cubs for re-signing Sweeney for just $3.5MM plus a club option in October, before the market for good fourth outfielder types was established at two years and $10-12MM by Rajai Davis, David DeJesus, Nate McLouth, and David Murphy.

The Cubs reached out to Chris Young early in the offseason, but he ended up signing a one-year, $7.25MM deal with the Mets.  Plan B for a right-handed hitting outfielder in Young's mold appears to have been Justin Ruggiano, who Hoyer described as "a better fit for our roster" than Bogusevic.  Ruggiano, a power/speed guy, has hit .270/.347/.544 in 305 plate appearances against southpaws over the last three years and will likely spell Schierholtz and Sweeney.

Questions Remaining

The Cubs' biggest question mark is the future of 29-year-old righty Jeff Samardzija, their nominal ace.  With two years of team control remaining, the Cubs have tried to extend him but have found a gap between the valuations of each side.  Rather than further reset the extension market and give Samardzija a $100MM deal, the Cubs explored trades this offseason.  The Diamondbacks, Nationals, Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, and Braves were among the reported suitors, but by the Winter Meetings the trade barometer had gone from likely to unlikely.  On December 11th, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun wrote that the Cubs wanted Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and a third player from the Blue Jays.  Prospect gurus suggest Sanchez is around the 30th best prospect in the game, and Stroman around the 60th.  

Though teams are rightfully veering well away from ERA in decision-making, Samardzija's marks of 4.34 last year and 5.47 in the season's final three months certainly don't help his trade value.  Though a third of Samardzija's team control will have evaporated by the trade deadline and the pitcher finds an extension with a new team unlikely, the Cubs are gambling he can raise his stock with a big first half in 2014 (barring a surprise trade this month).

The Cubs wound up adding Hammel and McDonald, though they were thinking much bigger with a pursuit of the offseason's top prize, Masahiro Tanaka.  The Japanese ace signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees with an opt-out clause after the fourth year, and required a $20MM release fee as well.  If speculation as to the Cubs' six-year, $120MM offer with no opt-out clause is accurate, then the Yankees were offering nearly 11% more in AAV, an extra year, and the extremely valuable opt-out.  That suggests the Cubs were not close on Tanaka.  Of the ten MLB contracts signed with true opt-out clauses, only Tanaka's allows for the player to join a new team before age 30.  The Cubs will compete in 2015 if we're being optimistic.  Burning his first year on a rebuilding season could be acceptable as part of a six-year deal, but potentially paying Tanaka $108MM for the next four years didn't work for this team.  The Cubs had also been an early offseason speculative suitor for David Price, whose two-year window of control and huge prospect cost also fit poorly for the Cubs unless they had reason to expect a below-market extension.

The Cubs' bid for Tanaka and speculative connection to Price stems from the question of who their future mound ace will be when all of their hitting prospects reach the Majors, especially if Samardzija is not extended or does not take the next step.  Slender but well-regarded prospect C.J. Edwards could become that ace, and maybe the Cubs will take a close-to-the-Majors pitcher with their fourth overall pick in the June draft.  Though Bryant projects as a future All-Star, perhaps Jonathan Gray would have been a better pick for the Cubs with their #2 overall choice in the last draft.  There's a good chance the Cubs' next ace pitcher will have to come from outside the organization.

The Cubs also face questions at every infield position.  First baseman Anthony Rizzo is signed through 2019, but hasn't hit lefties in his big league career and batted .217/.325/.374 from June onward last season. 27-year-old power righty Andrew Cashner, who the Cubs sent to the Padres for Rizzo, has developed into a more valuable pitcher than anyone in the Cubs' current rotation.  Second baseman Darwin Barney didn't hit enough in 2013 to justify regular playing time, and figures to be challenged by prospects this year.  Shortstop Starlin Castro, signed through 2019, was surprisingly below replacement level last season.  A lawsuit with a baseball school in the Dominican may have affected his play, but he'll be pushed by top prospect Javier Baez in 2014.  The Cubs' ragtag group of third basemen showed surprising pop last year, and they have good organizational depth beyond stopgap veterans Luis Valbuena and Donnie Murphy.

Deal of Note

The Cubs made a run at Roberto Hernandez during the Winter Meetings, but wound up reaching an agreement with Hammel in late January.  The 31-year-old Hammel had surprised with a strong partial season in 2012 with the Orioles, bumping his average fastball velocity to almost 94 miles per hour and posting career-best strikeout and groundball rates.  Hammel earned the Orioles' Opening Day nod but came back to Earth in 2013, posting a 4.97 ERA and hitting the DL with inflammation around the ulnar nerve in his elbow.  If both Hammel and Samardzija are dealt this summer, it will mark the third consecutive season of the Cubs trading 40% of their rotation.

Overview

After a new front office came in and on punted on their first two seasons, the Cubs have assembled the fourth-best farm system in baseball, according to ESPN's Keith Law as well as Baseball America.  Ideally, 2014 will be the team's final consolidation year before contending.  If you think about it, three concession seasons in a market of this size is remarkable, the Mets notwithstanding.  After this year, Epstein will have only two years left on his contract and even the Cubs' fanbase will start getting antsy.

The Cubs certainly tried to make some big statements this offseason.  Imagine how the conversation would have changed had they hired Girardi, extended Samardzija, and signed Tanaka.  The big moves didn't materialize, leaving Epstein and company with money kept in reserve for the first time.  In the bigger picture, the Cubs seem to be holding off on embracing their status as a large market team until their $500MM Wrigley Field renovation project begins, potentially after this season if the dispute with rooftop owners can be resolved.  Brighter times are ahead, but until then the world's most patient fanbase continues to be tested.  

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

  • Tim Dierkes, in a follow-up to his feature post examining the opt-out clause, analyzed the cost-benefit impact on teams agreeing to include an opt-out in a player's contract. Using the five players who secured a new deal or extension by exercising their opt-out, Tim opined four of the five teams were better off losing the player and the back end of his original pact. 
  • Zach Links spoke with agents and club executives to determine how pre-arbitration salaries are set. An experienced agent told Zach "about two-thirds of baseball is using some kind of formula" with one baseball official adding "The [Collective Bargaining Agreement] dictates a minimum, now $500K, for these guys. The philosophical question is, what benefit do you get from paying them significantly above that, or even a dollar above that?" 
  • Agent Dave Pepe told MLBTR right-hander Carl Pavano has decided to end his comeback attempt and will retire after a 14-year career with the Expos, Marlins, Yankees, Indians, and Twins.
  • Jeff Todd asked MLBTR readers which four-year, $50MM free agent pitcher is the better value. Nearly half of you rate the Brewers' investment in Matt Garza as the best.
  • Steve Adams asked MLBTR readers if Justin Masterson will sign an extension with the Indians. Just under 56% of you predict the right-hander will become a free agent next offseason. 
  • Aaron Steen asked MLBTR readers whether the qualifying offer should be eliminated. Only 25% of you believe the QO should be discarded while almost 47% of you say it should be tweaked.  
  • Steve hosted the MLBTR live chat this week.
  • Zach put together the best of the baseball blogosphere in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
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